2013 July Rpdata Indices Chartpack

Property Market Update
July 2013
Presentation Heading
Residential Real Estate Absolutely Underpins Australias Wealth Position
Residential Real Estate
$4.68 Trillion
Australian Australian Superannuation Superannuation
$1.58 $1.5 Trillion Trillion (SMSF $496.2 Billion)

Commercial Real Stocks Estate Australian Listed
$0.7 Trillion $1.4 Trillion

Commercial Commercial Real Real Estate Estate
$0.7 Trillion $0.7 Trillion
Heading
Market snapshot
Australian capital cities, June13
Darwin Houses: down -3.5% over quarter Units: up 0.8% over quarter Median house price: $530,000 Median unit price: $445,000 Gross rental yields: 6.2% (houses) / 6.2% (units)
Brisbane Houses: down -1.4% over quarter Units: down -2.2% over quarter Median house price: $448,500 Median unit price: $370,000 Gross rental yields: 4.7% (houses) / 5.7% (units) Perth Houses: up 0.2% over quarter Units: down -1% over quarter Median house price: $517,000 Median unit price: $420,000 Gross rental yields: 4.4% (houses) / 5.1% (units) Sydney Houses: up 1.1% over quarter Units: up 1.6% over quarter Median house price: $662,500 Median unit price: $500,000 Gross rental yields: 4.2% (houses) / 4.9% (units) Canberra Houses: down -1.7% over quarter Units: down -0.9% over quarter Median house price: $565,000 Median unit price: $415,000 Gross rental yields: 4.6% (houses) / 5.6% (units) Hobart Houses: down -1.6% over quarter Units: down -6.4% over quarter Median house price: $335,000 Median unit price: $265,000 Gross rental yields: 5.2% (houses) / 5.2% (units)
Adelaide Houses: up 1.6% over quarter Units: down -3.1% over quarter Median house price: $400,000 Median unit price: $334,750 Gross rental yields: 4.4% (houses) / 4.9% (units)
Melbourne Houses: down -0.5% over quarter Units: up 0.5% over quarter Median house price: $561,000 Median unit price: $446,000 Gross rental yields: 3.7% (houses) / 4.4% (units)
3
Source: rpdata - Rismark
All capital cities except for Hobart have recorded an increase in home Heading values over the 2012/13 financial year
Across the capital cities, dwelling values have increased by 3.8% over the 2012/13 financial year compared to a -3.6% fall in values over the 2011/12 financial year. Across the cities, Hobart is the only city to record an annual fall in home values (-1.8%) while Darwin (6.1%) and Perth (6.0%) have been the standout performers.
7.0%
Annual change in capital city dwelling values

6.1% 6.0% 5.6% 3.8% 3.4%
Annual change in dwelling value
6.0%
5.0%
4.0% 3.0%
2.0%
1.0% 0.0% -1.0%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
-2.0%
-3.0% Darwin Perth Sydney Australian Melbourne Canberra Capitals
4
-1.8% Brisbane Adelaide Hobart
Although Heading home values have risen over the year, the second quarter has recorded moderate value growth of just 0.2%
Capital city home values have increased by 0.2% over the three months to June 2013, following a 2.8% increase in values over the three months to March 2013. Home values have risen over the past 3 months in Adelaide, Sydney and Perth. The quarterly change in home values has varied from +1.2% in Adelaide and Sydney to -2.7% in Darwin.
2.0%
Change in capital city dwelling values, 3 months to June 2013

1.2%
Quarterly change in dwelling value
1.2%
0.2% 0.1% -0.4% -1.4%
1.0%
0.0% -1.0%
-2.0% -3.0% Adelaide Sydney Australian Capitals Perth Melbourne Brisbane Canberra Hobart
-1.6% -2.1% -2.7% Darwin
5
Heading Sydney home values have now eclipsed their previous highs
Across the combined capital cities, values are currently -2.9% below their October 2010 peak. The fall from respective market peaks through to the end of May is greatest in Darwin, where dwelling values are down -11.1% compared to Sydney where values are now 1.2% higher than their previous highs.
2.0%
0.0% -2.0% -2.1% -1.6% -2.9%
1.2% higher than previous peak
Decline in home values from their peak to June 2013

0.0%
-4.0%
-6.0% -8.0% -6.6% -4.4%
-10.0%
-12.0% -11.1% Darwin -10.8% Brisbane
-10.6%
Hobart Melbourne Adelaide
6
Canberra
Perth
Sydney
Australian capitals
Sydney Heading is the most expensive capital city, while Hobart is the most affordable
Sydney house prices are the highest of all capital cities and Hobart houses remain substantially more affordable than the other capitals. Across the combined capitals, the median house price was $520,000 and the median unit price was $440,000 over the three months to June 2013.
Median house and unit prices 3 months to June 2013

Hobart Adelaide Brisbane
$265,000
$335,000 $334,750
Perth
Australian Capitals Darwin Melbourne
$400,000 $370,000 $448,500 $420,000 $440,000 $445,000 $446,000
Median unit price Median house price
$517,000
$520,000
$530,000 $561,000 $565,000 $500,000
Canberra
Sydney $0 $100,000 $200,000
$415,000
$662,500
$300,000 $400,000 Median price

7
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
Perth and Darwin have been the standout cities for capital gains Heading over the past decade
Capital city property values have increased at an average annual rate of 4.5% over the ten years to June 2013. Sydney and Canberra are the only capital cities to have recorded average annual growth of less than 5.0% over the past decade.
Avg annual value growth last decade
12.0% 10.0%
Average annual change in property values past ten years to June 2013
9.8% 8.5%
8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3%
5.5% 4.5%
4.5%
2.5% 2.0%
0.0% Sydney Canberra Brisbane Adelaide Hobart Melbourne Perth Darwin Australian capitals
8
Capital Heading gains have been much more subdued over the past five years
Capital city values have increased at an average annual rate of 2.4% over the five years to June 2013. Over the past decade, every capital city, except Sydney and Canberra has recorded an annual growth rate of 5.0% or more, however not one capital city has recorded average annual growth of more than 4.5% over the past five years.
6.0%
Average annual change in property values past five years to June 2013
4.3%
Avg annual value growth last 5 years
4.0% 2.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0% -0.6% -2.0% 0.8%
3.6%
3.8%
2.4%
-1.1%
Brisbane Hobart Adelaide Perth
9
Canberra Melbourne
Sydney
Darwin
Australian capitals
The combined capital city index is showing a clear recovery Heading trend on an annual basis
Housing market conditions across the combined capital cities have been improving since May 2012 after a 7.4% peak to trough decline which lasted nineteen months. On a rolling quarterly basis, home values have increased over 10 of the past 12 months and values across the eight capital city aggregate are 3.8% higher than a year ago.
25.0% 20.0% 15.0%
Annual change
Annual and quarterly change in capital city home values
10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Jun-97

Quarterly change
Jun-99
Jun-01
Jun-03
Jun-05
10
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-13
National Heading home sales over the three months to April 2013 were 14.4% higher than over the three month to April 2012
Monthly number of house sales - national
30,000 Monthly Rolling five year average
25,000
20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000
0 Apr 93
RP Data estimates that over the 3 months to April 2013, there were 51,656 house sales and 23,829 unit sales.
Apr 95 Apr 97 Apr 99 Apr 01 Apr 03 Apr 05 Apr 07 Apr 09 Apr 11 Apr 13
Monthly number of units sales - national

16,000
14,000
12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000
Monthly
Rolling five year average
Estimated houses sales over the three months to April 2013 are 15.4% higher than they were over the same period in 2012. Estimated unit sales are 12.3% higher over the past three months than they were over the same period in 2012.
4,000
2,000
0 Apr 93
Apr 95
Apr 97
Apr 99
Apr 01
Apr 03
Apr 05
Apr 07
Apr 09
Apr 11
Apr 13
11
Source: rpdata Note: the last eight months of sales volumes are modelled based on historic levels of revision
Capital Heading city detached housing markets are outperforming those in regional areas
Over recent years, changes in capital city home values have typically recorded a superior performance compared with the housing markets outside of the capital cities. Over the three months ending May 2013, house values across the combined capital cities fell by -0.3% while house values across the combined Rest of State markets fell by -0.9%.
6.0% 5.0%
Quarterly change in capital city house values vs. Rest of state house values
Capital city Rest of State
4.0% 3.0%
2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
12
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
Sydney Heading home values have been increasing since June 2012 and now sit at a record high level
Over the past year, Sydney home values have increased by 5.6%. Sydney home values have risen by 1.2% over the past quarter and are now 1.2% higher than their previous peak. House values have increased by 6.3% over the year compared to a 2.4% increase in unit values.
30.0% 25.0%
Annual and quarterly change in Sydney home values
Annual change, Sydney
20.0%
Annual change, Combined capitals
15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Jun-97

Quarterly change, Sydney
Jun-99
Jun-01
Jun-03
Jun-05
13
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-13
Transaction activity across Sydney has ramped up sharply over Heading the past 12 months
Monthly number of house sales - Sydney
9,000 Monthly 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Apr 93 Apr 95
RP Data estimates that over the three months to April 2013, there were 13,960 house sales and 9,844 unit sales across Sydney.
Apr 97 Apr 99 Apr 01 Apr 03 Apr 05 Apr 07 Apr 09 Apr 11 Apr 13
Monthly number of units sales - Sydney

7,000 6,000 Monthly Rolling five year average
Estimated houses sales are 22.0% higher over the three months to April 2013 than they were over the same period in 2012. Estimated unit sales are 22.9% higher than they were over the same three month period a year ago.
5,000 4,000
3,000 2,000 1,000
0 Apr 93
Apr 95
Apr 97
Apr 99
Apr 01
Apr 03
Apr 05
Apr 07
Apr 09
Apr 11
Apr 13
14
Melbourne home values continue to increase, but have Heading Heading underperformed the capital city benchmark over the year
Over the last 12 months, Melbourne dwelling values have increased by 3.4%. Home values increased by 2.3% over the month of June 2013 and have risen by 4.4% since bottoming out in May last year. House values have increased by 3.3% over the past year compared to a 4.1% increase in unit values.
30.0% 25.0%
Annual change, Melbourne
Annual and quarterly change in Melbourne home values
20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Jun-97

Quarterly change, Melbourne
Jun-99
Jun-01
Jun-03
Jun-05
15
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-13
Sales activity across Melbourne has now moved slightly higher Heading than the five year average
Monthly number of house sales - Melbourne
7,000 6,000 5,000
Monthly
4,000
3,000 2,000 1,000
0 Apr 93
Based on RP Datas estimates, there were 13,795 Melbourne house sales over the three months to April 2013 and 5,989 unit sales.
Monthly number of units sales - Melbourne

4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Apr 93 Monthly Rolling five year average
Based on these estimates, Melbourne house sales were 7.5% higher over the most recent three months than over the three months to April 2012. Unit sales estimates are also 7.5% higher than over the corresponding three month period in 2012.
Apr 95
Apr 97
Apr 99
Apr 01
Apr 03
Apr 05
Apr 07
Apr 09
Apr 11
Apr 13
16
Brisbane Heading Heading home values continue to increase following a substantial correction in values
Brisbane home values increased by 0.6% over the twelve months to June 2013. Home values increased by 0.1% over the month of June 2013 and have recovered 1.6% since the market reached a recent low point in May last year. Over the past twelve months, house values have increased by 0.9% compared to a -1.8% fall in unit values.
40.0% 35.0%
Annual and quarterly change in Brisbane home values

Annual change, Brisbane
30.0%
25.0% 20.0% 15.0%
10.0%
5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Jun-97
Quarterly change, Brisbane
Jun-99
Jun-01
Jun-03
Jun-05
17
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-13
The number of Brisbane house sales remains quite steady while Heading unit sales are improving but remain at low levels
Monthly number of house sales - Brisbane
7,000 6,000 5,000
Monthly
4,000
3,000 2,000 1,000
0 Apr 93
Based on RP Datas estimates, there were 7,525 Brisbane house sales over the three months to April 2013 and 2,890 unit sales.
Monthly number of units sales - Brisbane

2,500 2,000 1,500 Monthly Rolling five year average
Based on these estimates, Brisbane house sales were 13.6% higher over the past three months than over the same period in 2012. Unit sales estimates are -13.1% lower than over the same three month period 12 months ago.
1,000 500 0 Apr 93
Apr 95
Apr 97
Apr 99
Apr 01
Apr 03
Apr 05
Apr 07
Apr 09
Apr 11
Apr 13
18
Adelaide Heading Heading has recorded only slight growth in home values over the past year
Home values in Adelaide have increased by 0.2% over the twelve months to June 2013. Since the Adelaide market started on a recovery trend in July last year values have risen by 2.7%. House values have increased by 0.2% over the past year compared to a -0.4% fall in unit values.
30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Jun-97
Annual and quarterly change in Adelaide home values
Annual change, Adelaide
Quarterly change, Adelaide
Jun-99
Jun-01
Jun-03
Jun-05
19
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-13
Adelaide Heading house and unit sales are improving and are now higher than the five year average
Monthly number of house sales - Adelaide
2,500
Monthly
2,000
1,500 1,000 500
0 Apr 93
RP Data estimates that there were 3,735 Adelaide house sales over the three months to April 2013 and 1,382 unit sales.
Monthly number of units sales - Adelaide

900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Apr 93 Monthly Rolling five year average
Adelaide house sales over the past three months are currently estimated to be 0.2% higher than they were over the three months to April 2012. Sales estimates for units indicate that sales activity over the most recent three months is 13.3% higher than the same period a year ago.
Apr 95
Apr 97
Apr 99
Apr 01
Apr 03
Apr 05
Apr 07
Apr 09
Apr 11
Apr 13
20
Perth has been one of the standout capital growth performers Heading Heading over the 2012/13 financial year
After a long cycle of underperforming, Perth home values have increased by 6.0% over the past year. Perths home values bottomed out much earlier than most other capital cities, with values showing an upwards trend since October 2011. Since that time values have increased by 9.5%. House values have increased by 6.3% over the past year compared to a 2.4% lift in unit values.
50.0% 40.0%
Annual and quarterly change in Perth home values
Annual change, Perth
30.0% 20.0%
10.0% 0.0%
-10.0% Jun-97
Quarterly change, Perth
Jun-99
Jun-01
Jun-03
Jun-05
21
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-13
Transaction activity in Perth is soaring and is much higher than Heading both last year and the five year average
Monthly number of house sales - Perth
5,000
Monthly
4,000
3,000 2,000 1,000
0 Apr 93
RP Data estimates that there were 9,977 Perth house sales over the three months to April 2013 and 2,347 unit sales.
Monthly number of units sales - Perth

1,200 Monthly Rolling five year average
Perth house sales are currently estimated to be 26.9% higher than over the same three month period in 2012. Sales estimates for units indicate that sales activity over the most recent three months is 33.5% higher than a year ago.
1,000
800 600 400 200
0 Apr 93
Apr 95
Apr 97
Apr 99
Apr 01
Apr 03
Apr 05
Apr 07
Apr 09
Apr 11
Apr 13
22
Hobart Heading Headingwas the only capital city to record a fall in home values over the past year
Home values have fallen by -1.8% over the last 12 months. Home values fell by -1.1% in June 2013 however, the market has seen a 4.7% rise in values since the recent low point in October last year. Values of houses have fallen by -2.0% over the last 12 months while the unit market saw values fall by -0.1%.
60.0% 50.0%
Annual change, Hobart
Annual and quarterly change in Hobart home values
40.0% 30.0% 20.0%

10.0% 0.0% -10.0% Jun-99

Quarterly change, Hobart
Jun-01
Jun-03
Jun-05
23
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-13
Hobart Heading sales activity has improved dramatically from the low levels of April 2012
Monthly number of house sales - Hobart
600 500
Monthly
400 300 200 100 0 Apr 93

Based on current estimates by RP Data, Hobart recorded 775 house sales and 220 unit sales over the three months to April 2013. House sales over the three months to April 2013 are estimated to be 7.1% higher than at the same time last year. Across the unit market, it is estimated sales activity over the three months is 4.1% higher than in 2012.
Monthly number of units sales - Hobart

180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Apr 93 Monthly Rolling five year average
Apr 95
Apr 97
Apr 99
Apr 01
Apr 03
Apr 05
Apr 07
Apr 09
Apr 11
Apr 13
24
The annual rate of value growth in Darwin remains above the Heading Heading capital city benchmark but appears to be slowing
Home values across the city have increased by 6.1% over the past year. Home values increased by 0.6% over June 2013 and have increased by 10.8% since the market reached its recent low point back in January 2012. House values have increased by 6.1% over the past year compared to a 6.4% increase in unit values.
30.0% 25.0%
Annual and quarterly change in Darwin home values

Annual change, Darwin
20.0%
15.0% 10.0% 5.0%
0.0%
-5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% Jun-03
Quarterly change, Darwin
Jun-05
Jun-07
25
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-13
Darwin Heading sales transaction have continued to increase throughout April 2013
Monthly number of house sales - Darwin
350 300 250
Monthly
200
150 100
50
0 Apr 99
Based on current estimates by RP Data, Darwin recorded 547 house sales and 230 unit sales over the three months to April 2013.
Apr 01 Apr 03 Apr 05 Apr 07 Apr 09 Apr 11 Apr 13
Monthly number of units sales - Darwin

200 Monthly 150 100 Rolling five year average
Over the three months to April 2013 house sales across Darwin are estimated to be 20.1% higher than at the same time last year. Across the unit market, it is estimated sales activity is -13.1% lower over the past three months than over the same period in 2012.
50 0 Apr 99
Apr 01
Apr 03
Apr 05
Apr 07
Apr 09
Apr 11
Apr 13
26
Canberra Heading Heading home values continue to rise despite Federal election uncertainty
Home values have increased by 1.1% over the past 12 months. Home values increased by 0.3% in June 2013 and are up 3.3% since the market low in January 2012. Values of houses increased by 1.1% over the last 12 months compared to a 1.7% increase in unit values.
35.0% 30.0%
Annual change, Canberra
Annual and quarterly change in Canberra home values
25.0%
20.0% 15.0% 10.0%
5.0%
0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Jun-97
Quarterly change, Canberra
Jun-99
Jun-01
Jun-03
Jun-05
27
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-13
Canberra sales transactions have improved markedly from a Heading year ago but the improvement now appears to be moderating
Monthly number of house sales - Canberra
1,000
Monthly
800
600 400 200
0 Apr 93
RP Datas current estimate of sales activity across Canberra shows that over the three months to April 2013 there were 1,341 house sales and 928 unit sales
Monthly number of units sales - Canberra

1,000 800 600 Monthly Rolling five year average
In comparison to activity over the three months to April 2012, current house sales across Canberra are 22.6% higher. Unit market sales transactions over the three months to April 2013 were 8.2% higher than over the same period in 2012.
400 200 0 Apr 93
Apr 95
Apr 97
Apr 99
Apr 01
Apr 03
Apr 05
Apr 07
Apr 09
Apr 11
Apr 13
28
The most affordable sector of the capital city housing market is Heading Heading currently recording strongest capital gains
Across the 12 months to June 2013, the most affordable dwellings have enjoyed the strongest market conditions, with values increasing by 3.5% Dwellings valued within the broad middle of the market and the most expensive dwellings have recorded annual value growth of 3.3% and 3.0% respectively.
30.0%
Performance of top 25% of dwellings vs. middle 50% vs. bottom 25%
Most affordable 25% Middle 50% Most expensive 25%
25.0%
20.0% 15.0%
10.0%
5.0% 0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0% Jun-97
Source: rpdata-Rismark
Jun-99
Jun-01
Jun-03
Jun-05
29
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-13
House and unit rents have risen at a rate lower than home Heading Heading values over the past 12 months
Across the combined capital cities weekly rents sit at $478/week for houses and $444/week for units. Capital city rents have increased by 3.2% for houses and by 2.8% for units over the past 12 months. Rental yields are currently recorded at 4.2% for houses and 4.9% for units.
8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% Jun-97

Capital city rental rates and gross yields

Median weekly rent Gross rental yield
$500 $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 Jun-13
Jun-99
Jun-01
Jun-03
Jun-05
30
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
Weekly Heading Heading rents have risen across every capital city over the past year except Hobart and Canberra
Median rent $575 $500 $436 $391 $422 $410 $365 $310 $510 $452 $332 $276 $619 $486 $536 $443 Qtr change 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 1.6% -0.3% -2.2% 0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -1.3% 12 mth change Rental yield 4.2% 2.9% 4.9% 2.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.9% 2.5% 2.1% 0.8% 7.7% 7.4% 0.1% -3.0% 9.3% 8.5% 0.8% -2.0% 3.7% 4.4% 4.7% 5.7% 4.4% 4.9% 4.4% 5.1% 5.2% 5.2% 6.2% 6.2% 4.6% 5.6%
Sydney
Houses Units Houses Units Houses Units Houses Units Houses Units Houses Units Houses Units Houses Units
Across the combined capital cities weekly rents sit at $478/week for houses and $444/week for units.
Capital city rents have increased by 3.2% for houses and by 2.8% for units over the past 12 months. Rental yields are currently recorded at 4.2% for houses and 4.9% for units. Rental growth has been strongest over the past year in Perth and Darwin however, the annual rate of growth is now slowing.
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Rental pressures have been much lower in all other cities with falls in Hobart and Canberra.
Darwin has the strongest rental yields while Melbourne has the softest.
31
Canberra
RP Datas Mortgage Index has slipped from the recent highs Heading Heading recorded over May but remains elevated
The RP Data Mortgage Index (RMI) tracks metadata flowing across RP Datas mortgage platforms, which accounts for more than 90% of all finance sector residential valuation instructions. The Index reached its highest point since early 2010 in late May and has dropped by 7% in raw terms over the month of June, however the trend remains positive.
180
160
RP Data Mortgage Index, National
140
120 100 80 60
40
20
0 Jun 09
RP Data Mortgage Index Dec 09 Jun 10
RP Data Mortgage Index (trend) Dec 10 Jun 11

32
Dec 11
Jun 12
Dec 12
Jun 13
Source: rpdata
Private treaty indicators suggest buyers are losing some Heading Heading leverage as home sell faster and vendors offer less discount
Average days on market, combined capitals
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 May-05
This yr: 43 days Last yr: 60 days
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
Average vendor discount, combined capitals

0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% -8.0% -9.0% May-05
This yr: -5.8% Last yr: -7.2%
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
33
May-11
May-12
May-13
Auction Heading Heading clearance rates are currently at their highest levels in three years
Capital city auction clearance rates have been recorded at a week-to-week average of more than 63% so far in 2013. Over the months of May and June clearance rates across Australias largest auction markets, Melbourne and Sydney, have averaged 70% and 71% respectively. Throughout 2012, auction clearance rates were recorded at an average of 50.4%.
90%
Combined capital city auction clearance rates
80%
70% 60%
50%
40% 30% 20%
10%
0% Jun 09 Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11
34
Source: rpdata
Dec 11
Jun 12
Dec 12
Jun 13
Effective Heading Heading supply levels are improving as listings fall and sales volumes increase
There are currently 250,079 houses and units being advertised for sale nationally; 109,372 of these listings are located within the capital cities. Total listings are -8.4% lower than at the same time last year (nationally) and -14.3% lower than last year across the capital cities.
350,000
National number of properties advertised for sale

New listings Total listings
300,000 250,000
200,000
150,000 100,000 50,000
0 Jun-07
Source: rpdata
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
35
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
The number of homes being prepared for sale has eased over Heading Heading the past month
The RP Data Listings Index (RLI) provides a lead indicator for the number of new listings about to enter the market. The index is based on the metadata flows across RP Datas online real estate data platforms which account for about 70-80% of all real estate agent traffic nationally. The correlation with new listings being added to the market is high, which suggests we may see a continuation of the fall in the number of new listings over the coming weeks.
RP Data Listings Index, National

350
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jun 09
Source: rpdata
Dec 09
Jun 10
Dec 10
Jun 11
36
Dec 11
Jun 12
Dec 12
Jun 13
Yields across Australias non-residential markets are typically Heading Heading much higher than the housing market
Perth
8.3
8.4
Melbourne
Office
Adelaide
8.7
8.9
Brisbane
Sydney 0.0 Perth 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
8.4
8.0 9.0 10.0
8.1
7.1
Melbourne
Industrial
Adelaide
8.9
9.2
Brisbane
Sydney 0.0 Perth 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
8.1
8.0 9.0 10.0
8.1
7.1
Melbourne
Retail
Adelaide
8.9
9.2
Brisbane
Sydney 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
8.1
8.0 9.0 10.0
37
Source: rpdata, Cityscope *6 months ending May 2013
Heading Heading Non residential investment over time
Commercial Property Building Approvals by Sector Quarterly

1.0% 0.9% 0.8%
% of G DP
0.7%
0.6% 0.5%
0.4%
0.3% 0.2% Office 0.1% 0.0% Mar-00 Retail Industrial
Mar-02
Mar-04
Mar-06
38
Mar-08
Mar-10
Mar-12
Source: CB Richard Ellis
Heading Heading Non-residential quarterly transaction activity
Commercial Property Building Approvals by Sector Quarterly

1.0% 0.9% 0.8%
% of G DP
0.7%
0.6% 0.5%
0.4%
0.3% 0.2% Office 0.1% 0.0% Mar-00 Retail Industrial
Mar-02
Mar-04
Mar-06
39
Mar-08
Mar-10
Mar-12
Heading Heading Commercial property yields over time across sectors
Commercial Property Yields across Sectors

11.0% 10.0%
Secondary Grade B warehouse
Bulky Goods Centres
9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Office 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Industrial
Grade A warehouse Prime
Neighbourhood centres
Regional centres
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Retail
40
Inflation Heading Heading sits comfortably in the middle of the RBAs target range but has slowed markedly over the past six months
All groups inflation increased by 0.4% over the March 2013 quarter and is currently recorded at an annual rate of 2.4%. The RBAs preferred inflation measure, the average of the weighted median and trimmed mean was recorded at 2.4% over the year, at the middle end of the RBAs medium term target range. Inflation has been recorded at just 0.6% over the past 6 months.
7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0%
Annual change in Consumer Price Index
3.0%
2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
RBA Target Range
All groups
Avg of trimmed mean and weighted median
-1.0% Mar-93
Mar-97
Mar-01
41
Mar-05
Mar-09
Mar-13
Source: ABS, rpdata
While inflation has increased by 2.5% over the year certain other Heading Heading costs are soaring while others are falling
Over the 12 months to March 2013, health (6.1%), education (5.8%) and housing (5.1%) costs have all risen substantially more than headline housing costs. Costs associated with clothing and footwear (-1.5%) and recreation and culture (-0.5%) have fallen over the year.
Annual change in components of CPI

Health Education Housing Alcohol and Tobacco Insurance and Financial Services All Groups Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages Communication Transport Furnishings, Household Equipment and Services Recreation and Culture Clothing and Footwear
-6.0% -4.0%
42
Source: ABS, rpdata
6.1% 5.8% 5.1%
3.7% 2.9% 2.5% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 0.6% -0.5% -1.5%

-2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%
Heading Heading Economic growth was fairly steady over the March 2012 quarter
GDP rose by 0.6% over the first quarter of 2013 following a 0.6% increase over the fourth quarter of 2012. GDP increased by 2.6% over the year to March 2013. The Reserve Bank of Australia is forecasting GDP growth to be at 2.5% over the 2013 calendar year.
10.0 8.0
Quarterly and annual change in GDP

Quarterly change Annual change
Percentage change
6.0
4.0 2.0
0.0
-2.0 -4.0 Mar-83 Mar-86 Mar-89 Mar-92 Mar-95 Mar-98

43
Source: ABS, rpdata
Mar-01
Mar-04
Mar-07
Mar-10
Mar-13
The Reserve Bank board keeps official interest rates on hold in Heading Heading July at 2.75
At their July board meeting, the RBA decided to keep official rates on hold at 2.75%. The average standard variable mortgage rate is recorded at 6.20%, the discounted variable rate is 5.40% and the average three year fixed rate sits at 5.15%.
14.0%
Mortgage rates vs. cash rate

Standard variable mortgage rates 3 yr fixed mortgage rates Cash rate
12.0%
10.0% 8.0% 6.0%
4.0%
2.0% 0.0% Jul-93
Jul-97
Jul-01
44
Jul-05
Jul-09
Jul-13
Source: RBA, rpdata
Unemployment rate eases slightly to 5.5% in May from a revised Heading Heading 5.6% in April 2013
The national unemployment rate was recorded at 5.5% in May 2013, down from 5.6% in April. The workforce participation rate fell to 65.2% to 65.3% over the month. Tasmania has the countrys highest unemployment rate at 73% and the Australian Capital Territory the lowest at 4.1%.
National unemployment rate

Unemployment Rate
12%
Moving annual average
10% 8%
6% 4% 2% May-13
May-86
May-89
May-92
May-95
May-98
May-01
45
May-04
May-07
May-10
Source: ABS, rpdata
Unemployment Rate
Part-time Heading Heading job creation has slightly outpaced full-time job creation over the past year
Over the 12 months to May 2013, full-time employment increased by 41,200 persons compared with an annual increase of 135,200 over the same period in 2012. Part-time employment increased by 83,300 persons over the last year compared to an increase of 34,800 persons over the same period in 2012.
400.0
Annual growth in full-time and part-time employment

Full-time employment Part-time employment
Annual change in no of employed persons (,000)
300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0
-100.0 -200.0 May-03
May-05
May-07
46
May-09
May-11
May-13
Source: ABS, rpdata
Consumer sentiment rebounds in June and is now showing Heading Heading slightly higher levels of optimism than pessimism
The index of Consumer Sentiment was recorded at 102.2 points in June 2013, up 4.7% over the month and 6.9% higher year-on-year. The six month average consumer sentiment reading is recorded at 104.0 points indicating that generally consumers have been more optimistic than pessimistic throughout this period.
130 120
Consumer sentiment index
110
100 90 80
Consumer Sentiment Index Six month rolling average
70 Jun-93
Jun-95
Jun-97
Jun-99
Jun-01
Jun-03
47
Jun-05
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-13
Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute, rpdata
Consumer sentiment has a significant influence on sales Heading Heading transactions and movements in home values
Consumer sentiment vs. sales volumes
140 120 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 60 40
100
80
There is a strong correlation between the six month average consumer sentiment and the number of house and unit sales. This link is logical, if confidence is higher, people are more likely to spend on high commitment purchases such as residential property. There is also a strong correlation between the annual change in six month average consumer sentiment and the annual change in capital city home values. If sales are increasing and there is an improvement in confidence you would anticipate the increased activity is likely to push home values higher.
10,000
5,000
Consumer Sentiment (LHS) Sales vols (Syd, Mel and Bris) (RHS)
20
0 Jun-93
Jun-95
Jun-97
Jun-99
Jun-01
Jun-03
Jun-05
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
0 Jun-13
Consumer sentiment vs. home values

40.0% 30.0%
20.0%
10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0% Jun-97
Consumer sentiment Capital city home values
Jun-99
Jun-01
Jun-03
Jun-05
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-13
48
Consumers continue to show a preference for saving their Heading Heading money rather than spending
Each quarter, Westpac and the Melbourne Institute ask respondents to their consumer sentiment survey where is the wisest place for savings? Over the June 2013 quarter, 37.1% felt a financial institution was the best place followed by real estate (24.6%), pay debt (15.7%) and shares (8.4%).
40.0%
35.0% 30.0% 25.0%
Wisest place for savings rolling 4 quarter average

Financial Institution Shares Real Estate Pay Debt
20.0%
15.0% 10.0% 5.0%
0.0% Jun-99
Jun-01
Jun-03
Jun-05
49
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-13
First home buyers continue to trend lower driven by fewer first Heading Heading time buyers in New South Wales and Queensland
The number of first home buyer finance commitments has fallen by -1.6% year-on-year while non-first home buyer commitments have increased by 21.1%. The number of first home buyer finance commitments rose 5.3% in April and they rose slightly as a proportion of all owner occupier finance commitments to 14.3%.
60,000
Housing finance commitments FHB vs. non FHB

Non FHB FHB
3mth rolling avg
Monthly finance commitments
50,000
40,000
30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Apr-93
Apr-97
Apr-01
50
Apr-05
Apr-09
Apr-13
Source: ABS, rpdata
Finance Heading Heading commitments for new loans have risen over the year while refinance commitments have fallen
Year-on-year, total owner occupier refinance commitments have fallen by -1.4% while owner occupier commitments excluding refinances have increased by 11.5%. Overall, the figures highlight that there has been a pick-up in new demand for housing finance over the year but no pick-up in refinances despite the fall in mortgage rates.
50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000
Owner occupier housing finance commitments new vs. refinance

Refinances Total excluding refinances
Finance commitments
10,000
0 Apr-93
Apr-95
Apr-97
Apr-99
Apr-01
51
Apr-03
Apr-05
Apr-07
Apr-09
Apr-11
Apr-13
Source: ABS, rpdata
The proportion of fixed rate mortgages is rising as consumers Heading Heading take advantage of low fixed rates.
20.6% of all new mortgages committed in April 2013 were for fixed rate mortgages which was the highest proportion since March 2008 (25.5%). At the same time in 2012, fixed rate mortgages accounted for 14.1% of all commitments. The vast majority of mortgagees are still taking out variable rate products.
25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Apr-93

Source: ABS, rpdata
Rolling 12 month percentage of fixed rate mortgages to owner occupiers
Apr-97
Apr-01
52
Apr-05
Apr-09
Apr-13
Growth Heading Heading in outstanding private sector housing credit is above its historic lowbut only just
The total value of outstanding private sector housing credit has increased by 4.5% over the 12 months to May 2013, which is slightly higher than the slowest rate of growth on record. Growth in owner occupier housing credit (4.0%) was outpaced by growth in credit for investment housing (5.5%).
Private sector housing credit (Owner occupiers and Investors) vs. values
35.0%
30.0%
25.0% 20.0% 15.0%
10.0%
5.0% 0.0% -5.0%
Owner occupier housing Investment housing Capital city values
-10.0% Jun-97
Jun-99
Jun-01
Jun-03
Jun-05
53
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-13
Source: RBA, rpdata
Dwelling Heading Heading approvals have been trending higher over recent months
Total dwelling approvals were 27.3% higher in April 2013 than they were in April 2012. Over the month of April 2013, approvals increased by 9.1%. Approvals are starting to head in the right direction however, the improvement is occurring off an extremely low base.
20,000 Total dwelling approvals 18,000
Total dwelling approvals

Total dwelling approvals (6 month rolling avg)
16,000
14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 Apr-85
Apr-89
Apr-93
Apr-97
54
Apr-01
Apr-05
Apr-09
Apr-13
Source: ABS, rpdata
Private Heading Heading sector unit approvals are largely driving the recent increase in dwelling approvals
Total dwelling approvals are 27.3% higher in April 2013 than they were in April 2012. Private sector house approvals are up 18.8% year on year. Private sector unit approvals are up 37.2% year on year.
14,000
12,000 10,000 8,000
Private sector house approvals vs. unit approvals
6,000
4,000 2,000 0 Apr-85
Private house approvals (rolling 6 mth avg) Apr-89 Apr-93 Apr-97
Private unit approvals (rolling 6 mth avg) Apr-01

55
Apr-05
Apr-09
Apr-13
Source: ABS, rpdata
Overseas migration is continuing to ramp up, fuelling stronger Heading Heading population growth
The rate of population growth has shown a marked turnaround, with overseas migration driving the residential population higher and creating further demand for housing. Over the twelve months to December 2012, Australias population increased by 1.8% or 394,233 new residents. This is the fastest rate of population growth in three years. The rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) remains at near record levels.
90,000
Components of national population growth

Natural Increase Net Overseas Migration
Quarterly change in population
80,000
70,000
60,000 50,000
40,000
30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Dec-84 Dec-88 Dec-92 Dec-96
56
Dec-00
Dec-04
Dec-08
Dec-12
Source: ABS, rpdata
With population growth ramping up, the gap between housing Heading Heading supply and demand is widening once again
As population growth surged from 2005, there was not a sufficient increase in the supply of new building approvals. The latest projections from the National Housing Supply Council estimate the cumulative housing undersupply was 214,700 in June 2011, with New South Wales and Queensland having the largest supply deficiencies.
120,000
100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000
Dwelling approvals vs. population growth

Total quarterly dwelling approvals Quarterly change in population growth
20,000 0 Apr-85
Source: ABS, rpdata
Apr-89
Apr-93
Apr-97
57
Apr-01
Apr-05
Apr-09
Apr-13
Australian home values have not fallen to the same extent as Heading Heading some other international markets
US values are currently -22.4% below their peak to Apr-13 UK values are currently -16.4% below their peak to May-13 NZ values are currently at their peak as at Apr-13 Aus values are currently -2.9% below their peak to Jun-13 Can values are currently -0.1% below their peak to May-13
190 170
International housing market comparison

Can NZ Aus
150
130 110
UK
US
90
70 50
Base=100 @ December 2003
US (Core Logic HPI)
UK (Halifax)
Australia (RP Data Rismark)
NZ (Property IQ)
Canada (Terranet)
30 Jun-01
Source: CoreLogic, Lloyds, Property IQ, rpdata-Rismark, Terranet
Jun-04
Jun-07
58
Jun-10
Jun-13
Heading Heading About Us

RP Data is 100% owned by CoreLogic which is a leading provider of consumer, financial and property information, analytics and services to business and government. The company combines public, contributory and proprietary data to develop predictive decision analytics and provide business services that bring dynamic insight and transparency to the markets it serves. Today, CoreLogic has more than 6,000 employees globally with 2012 revenues of $1.6 billion and is listed on the NYSE. At RP Data, we continually collect, manage and process property-based data and imagery from over 300 sources across Australia including government agencies, media partners and industry professionals. RP Data is the biggest provider of property information, analytics and risk management services in Australia and New Zealand with a database of 210 million property records. RP Data serves customers ranging from real estate agents and consumers to banks, mortgage brokers, financial planners and governments.
We understand that data is most useful when its presented as relevant and actionable analytics. Our data provides customers wit h insights that realise more market opportunities, while simultaneously growing businesses and managing risk. Our results speak for themselves; were helping over 100,000 end users including approximately 45,000 real estate agents win more business by providing Australias most trusted pre -listings comparative market appraisal (CMA) report, as well as industry standard tools that promote transparency and confidence when buying and selling property. In addition, 1 million consumers use RP Data to make important decisions about property they are about to hold, sell or purchase.
Our Mortgage Platforms cover more than 90% of the mortgage lending activity in Australia. We estimate the value of every residential property in Australia each week via our automated valuation models which support our industry leading RP Data Rismark Daily Home Value Index. On average, we issue over 30 million automated valuation assessments every month. Were Australias leading source for mobile property information too with over 500,000 mobile devices accessing our services each month. Using public and proprietary data, we bring insight and transparency to the Australian property market. We employ 330 people at ten locations in Australia and New Zealand and our revenue for 2012 was over $70 million. For more information call 1300 734 318.
59
In compiling this publication, RP Data has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. The publication is supplied on the basis that while the RP Data believes all the information in it is deemed reliable at the time of publication, it does not warrant its accuracy or completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to RP Data for the supply of such information. This data cannot be reproduced without the permission of RP Data. Queensland Data The State of Queensland (Department of Environment and Resource Management) 2012. Based on data provided with the permission of the Department of Natural Resources and Mines: [QVAS 2012)]. The Department of Environment and Resource Management makes no representations or warranties about accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of the data for any particular purpose and disclaims all responsibility and all liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for all expenses, losses and damages (including indirect or consequential damage) and costs which might be incurred as a result of the data being inaccurate or incomplete in any way and for any reason. South Australian Data This information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. The South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the published information or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying data. New South Wales Data Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (LPI). RP Data is author ised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI. Victorian Data To the extent that this report has been developed using information owned by the State of Victoria, the State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied. Western Australian Data Based on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2012) trading as Landgate. Australian Capital Territory Data The Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO Box 1908 Canberra ACT 2601. Tasmanian Data This product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents: a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; and b) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data. Base data from the LIST State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au
Heading Heading
60
Heading
Its about tangible results for property professionals everyday.
61

2013 July Rpdata Indices Chartpack

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

2013 July Rpdata Indices Chartpack

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Property Market Update

Residential Real Estate Absolutely Underpins Australias Wealth Position

Residential Real Estate

$1.58 $1.5 Trillion Trillion (SMSF $496.2 Billion)

$0.7 Trillion $1.4 Trillion

$0.7 Trillion $0.7 Trillion

Annual change in capital city dwelling values

Annual change in dwelling value

-1.8% Brisbane Adelaide Hobart

Source: rpdata - Rismark

Change in capital city dwelling values, 3 months to June 2013

Quarterly change in dwelling value

-1.6% -2.1% -2.7% Darwin

Decline in home values from their peak to June 2013

Source: rpdata - Rismark

Median house and unit prices 3 months to June 2013

$400,000 $370,000 $448,500 $420,000 $440,000 $445,000 $446,000

Median unit price Median house price

$300,000 $400,000 Median price

Source: rpdata - Rismark

Avg annual value growth last decade

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3%

Avg annual value growth last 5 years

4.0% 2.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0% -0.6% -2.0% 0.8%

Source: rpdata - Rismark

Annual and quarterly change in capital city home values

10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Jun-97

Source: rpdata - Rismark

Monthly number of units sales - national

Rolling five year average

Annual and quarterly change in Sydney home values

Annual change, Sydney

15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Jun-97

Quarterly change, Sydney

Rolling five year average

Monthly number of units sales - Sydney

Annual and quarterly change in Melbourne home values

20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Jun-97

Annual change, Combined capitals

Quarterly change, Melbourne

Rolling five year average

Monthly number of units sales - Melbourne

Annual and quarterly change in Brisbane home values

Quarterly change, Brisbane

Rolling five year average

Monthly number of units sales - Brisbane

1,000 500 0 Apr 93

Annual and quarterly change in Adelaide home values

Annual change, Combined capitals

Annual change, Adelaide

Quarterly change, Adelaide

Rolling five year average

Monthly number of units sales - Adelaide

Annual and quarterly change in Perth home values

Annual change, Perth

Quarterly change, Perth

Rolling five year average

Monthly number of units sales - Perth

Annual and quarterly change in Hobart home values

40.0% 30.0% 20.0%

10.0% 0.0% -10.0% Jun-99

Quarterly change, Hobart

Rolling five year average

400 300 200 100 0 Apr 93