POLI160AA Fall12 TAs: Justin Reeves Fri 12-2 320 SSB

Konstantin Ash Thu 330-5 334SSB Matthew Walsh Wed 1-230 330 SSB

I. 9.27.2012 Lecture 1 A. Three questions intro to the class 1. What is public policy? a) Supply of goods and services by a public agency (ie ss payments, subsidies, govt provides to all or some of us) can be privately or publicly b) Supply of laws and regulations (ie FDA, EPA etc)

2. Why do we need it? a) Collective action and scarcity

3. How do we make it? a) Analyze a problem and figure out how to solve it, come up with alternative solutions and analyze the solutions (1) Analyze (2) Decision making

4. Stages of Policy Analysis a) Problem identification b) Identify alternatives c) Establish evaluation criteria(ie cost/benefit analysis, pro cons, equality) d) Broader cost/benefit analysis e) Make choice f) Implement policy g) Evaluate the policy

II. 10.2.2012 Lecture 2 A. Review from last lecture 1. Govt can be active or inactive

B. Who does public policy benefit? C. What benefits some people but doesnt do anything to others (pareto optimal policy) ? D. What can our govt do to try and improve the lives of others? 1. Give away money to a group of people (cut taxes) 2. Pensions 3. Other tools order from weakest to stronges a) Persuasion ( education) Ex govt adds against drugs (1) Agenda setting (2) framing

b) Change peoples incentives (using money) EX cash for clunkers, subsidies taxeslargest bulk of what govt does (1) A rational person tries to maximize their outcomes in life

c) Coercion (1) Rules, laws or regulations (2) force (a) using force is very expensive (b) not democratic (c) less efficient

E. Rational 1. Comparability 2. Transitivity

F. EX Iraq war options a) A- attack alone b) B-united nations delication 2. Outcomes a) (V)Victory or defeat, (PV)oust Saddam and everyone hates us,(S) leave Saddam in power status quo b) However we cant choose outcomes, but we can choose actions

3. vPpv, vPs, pvPs a) Pa(PV)= 0.70 b) Pa(V)=0.25 c) Pa(S)=0.05 d) Pun(PV)=0.30 e) Pun(V)=0.40 f) Pun(S)=0.30 g) Value of V h) Value of PV i) Value of S

4. How to calculate the expected probability of outcomes? a) EU(a)=Probability of PV times value of PV plus Probability of victory plus Probability of Status quo b) EU(un)=Probability of PV times value of PV plus probability of V times value of V plus probability of Statu quo times value of status quo. c) Based on above information, EU(un)= 43 more utility

5. Examples a) Charles

III. 10.4.2012 Lecture 3 A. Arrows Theorem 1. 3 people at least

2. At least 3 outcomes 3. Decision rule gives answer 4. Any set preferences 5. If X to Y, then Y not chose 6. Ind irrelevant alternative 7. No dictator

B. Strategic behavior vs sincere behavior 1. Backwards induction: a) The last person voting b) Safisticated voting= c) Sincere d) Strategic:

C. Voting 1. Majority 2. Run off 3. Sequential run off 4.

D # of votes R

Liberal Ideology

Conservative

How to not get two medium party candidate? More candidates? IV. Aggregating Preferences A. Outline 1. Voting methods a) Representative cs direct democracy

B. Two themes 1. Voting methods matter- produce different outcomes 2. There is n o on e right way to aggregate preferences

C. Goals of Democracy? 1. Represent minority 2. Represent all parties or all individuals 3. Democaracy how outputs are distributed, are these outputs good, are these outputs good 4. Give everyone a fair chance to vote 5. Give erone a fair chanve to elect reps 6. Give errone a fair chance to have influence over policy 7. Better race relations/better group relations 8. Improve the cpnditions of those near the bottom/ improve the

conditions of all

D. Ideal Democracy : Key Questions 1. Should we consider the quality of a vote? 2. Should we consider the rights, interest pf individuals or groups? 3. Which groups should we consider? 4. How much influence is fair influence? 5. Should we consider substantive or descriptive representation?

E. Developing a New Constitution: The Case of Egypt 1. Make it fair, democratic, efficient 2. Who gets to vote? a) Under 18? protested, served in military b) Prisoners? often wrongfully imprisoned c) Those who know nothing about politics d) Those who think women have no rights?

3. How do you set up the vote? a) Best way? (1) There is no best way? All going to be biasing against one group, set of interest for another

b) Main issues to consider? (1) Who are the main parties?

F. Counting the votes: main issues 1. Group rights vs individual rights? a) Womens rigts?

2. Direct vs representative democracy? 3. Plurality vs proportional representation? 4. Number of parties? 5. Geographic representation?

G. Representative vs Direct DEmocaray 1. Representative: voting for candidates who will elected policies in your name a) Problem (1) Principle-agent problems- legislators shirk their duties (a) Corruption (b) Ideological shirkin

b) Benefits (1) Expertise (2) efficient

2. Direct: we as people decide directly on a) Benefits- you get to see the policy and get to vote on it. (1) Force public to be more educated (2) More democratic

b) Problems? (1) Mob rule, tyranny of the democracy (2) Inefficient and expensive (3) Everyone might not be all that knowledgeable about decisions (4) Bias (a) Role of money (i) Agenda seting (ii) Influencing the outcome of the vote

(5) Legality (6) implementation

3. Types of Representative Govt a) By geographic location (1) Problems? (a) What do you have in common with your neighbors

(b) Pork barrel politics (i) Come up with legislation specific to their area

b) Alternatives by ethnicity, by party

4. Direct vs Representative Democracy a) Which is better? More democratic (1) Depends on the size of population

H. Electoral Syste,s 1. Two basic kinds- plurality vs proportional representation a) Plurality (1) The candidate who gets the most votes essentially wins. Whoever loses doesnt win

b) Proportional representation (1) The outcome of the election is directly proportional to the outcome of the votes.

c) Proportional representation (1) Benefits? (a) More people in the end get some representation (b) Mirrors the public

(2) Negatives (a) More time consuming, incoroporating everyones views may be more difficult to move more swiftly and efficiently. (b) May have more extremist parties/ groups

d) Plurality (1) Benefits (a) Fewer extremist (b) More efficient more dynamice

(2) Negatives (a) Excludes small groups

2. Electoral system Broken Down

FPP SNTV LV CV

V 1 1 <k <=k

P No No Yes Yes

C No No No Yes

K 1 k>1 K k>1

f Plurality Plurality Plurality Plurality

3. Single non transferable vote more than one representative per district, top candidates win. Why? Allows for more heterogeneous 4. Limited vote- voter gets more than one vote, vote for preferred candidates a) Negatives? Strategic voting- partial abstention 5. Cumulative voting- can use all of your votes for same candidate. Why? I. Plurality: the united States Case 1. Permanent Minorities ( is there a group that generally loses when it comes to elections in our country)? a) Who? (1) Racial minorities (2) Gays and lesbians (3) Other

2. What recourses do minorities have? a) Forge coalitions b) Appeal to judicial system c) Appeal to majority d) Other potential solutions? Reforms?

J. Primary tool: The voting rights act 1. Seeks to ensure tminoruty acces to the vote 2. Seeks to ensure minorities 3. Did it work? 4. What should we look at to know if it worked? a) Voting participation (1) Almost on par

b) Representation c) Policy influence

K. One last proposal: Lani Guinier 1. Proportionate interest representation a) Supermajority voting in legislature (1) Require 2/4 vote to pass anything

(2) Gives minorities a veto b) Legislative cumulative voting (1) Vote on multiple pieve of legislature at once (2) You can bundle your votes on policy you care about L. One other reform: Voter ID laws 1. Benefits 2. Negatives 3. Yes or no?

V. Lecture 5 A. Outline B. Social Problems: They are Everywhere 1. E.G. Garbage on the streets, driving whi;e distracted, national defense, jury duty 2. Why dont people cooperate to help produce public goods? a) Theres a cost b) Someone else could provide it c) Public good we can enjoy them without paying for them (1) You cant exclude people from a public good (exclusion is not possible) free rider problem

3. Solutions to the free rider problems? a) Incentives b) 3 levels of policy (1) Coerce people into doing things (by force) jail (2) Incentives ( recycling get monies back, easier, less costly to recycle) (3) Norms (a) Church giving

4. The logic of cooperation a) An example- cheating on the final exam-the prisoners dilemma

5. In the real world what strategy works? a) Tit for Tat

6. Another example of cooperation: buying a used pink minivan a) Shirking on the agreement b) Solutions? c)