The Kenya of 1990, when outgoing World Bank economist Wolfgang Fengler arrived in Nairobi for the first

time and lodged at River Road, has changed considerably. Dr Fengler arrived at the height of the clamour for democracy, the economy was fast falling into a coma from which it would not emerge until more than a decade later. Though Dr Fengler, who holds a PhD in economics from Hamburg University in Germany, did not formally begin to work for the Bretton Woods institution in Nairobi he nevertheless kept track of the changes the country was undergoing over the next two decades. In 1990, Kenya was a country that did not know cellphone communication. Today, the gadget has become common place even for financial transactions. The second republic was born with a new Constitution in 2010 that has given hope to many, especially in view of the devolution of power and resources to the counties. Since 1990, the size of the Kenyan economy has more than quadrupled to $33.6 billion from just $8.6 billion with most of the increase taking place after 2004. But there has been disappointing news too. Life expectancy was 59 years in 1990, it now stands at 57 years. Valued added to agricultural production as a percentage of GDP was 30 per cent then, now it stands at 28 per cent. Dr Fenglers experience has enabled him to document the countrys successes and failures in a new book titled Realising the Kenyan Dream published by the Nation Media Group. The book is a collection of articles that he has published in the Saturday Nation in the column Economics for Everyone Development Discourse which he co-hosts. The book is set to be formally launched on Monday. One of the major disappointments that is also well documented in the book regards Mombasa port. What the Port of Singapore clears in one week, the Mombasa port takes a whole year to accomplish. This should probably be one of the topmost, if not the topmost, priority of the authorities. It is not that Kenya has not been making any reforms, it has not been doing it fast enough. If it continues with the slow pace others might move faster and overtake it, said Dr Fengler. Dr Fengler writes about major improvements that have made Asian ports make up nine of the top 10 globally, in turn enabling the continent to get better integrated in world trade. Is there any reason why Africa (can) not follow suit and, 20 years from now, make it to the top 10? Mombasa would be a natural candidate but theres a whole lot of catching up to do, Dr Fengler writes. He notes that to import a container from Singapore, your goods would spend 19 days on the sea (over 7,500 kilometres), but they would need 20 more days just to make it from Mombasa, by road, to Nairobi. Again, bringing a container from Tokyo to Mombasa would cost you less than bringing it from Mombasa to Kampala. Thus, reforms at the port must go hand in hand with those on the rail and road transport system.

What about agriculture? Clearly, the story of agriculture is one of the biggest disappointments. But Kenya does not have to be self-sufficient in food production. It can open borders and allow Uganda and Tanzania maize and pay less for it, says Dr Fengler. He discusses how high prices of goods and services amount to taxing the poor. In the medium-term, a reform of Kenyas maize sector would help a lot. Kenyas traditional highprice policy and inefficient marketing systems are hurting the average Kenyan enormously. If Kenyan maize prices came down to international levels, which is in fact what one would expect to see, it would give the poor and the middle class enormous relief, he writes. Dr Fengler has been described by some as an Afro-optimist in the sense that he sees a lot of hope for Kenya and Africa in general, that the best times for the continent lie in the future. Living in Kenya over the last four years convinced me of the countrys enormous potential. The last decade already gave the country some hope, but the best is yet to come, says Dr Fengler, who has been on the advisory board of the School of Economics at the University of Nairobi. Kenya is set to achieve middle income status, which is average income per person of Sh84,000 (or $1,000) annually, by 2016 compared to about $850 currently. It is likely to reap the demographic and education dividends in the sense that a bigger, more urbanised and educated population will be a boon for the economy going forward, he notes. Lived on three continents Dr Fengler has covered Kenya, Rwanda, and Eritrea. He joined the World Bank 13 years ago and has lived on three continents in America working at the banks headquarters in Washington, in Asia as a senior economist in the Indonesia office, and in Africa based in the Nairobi office. Several opinion and business leaders have commented on the books style. Wolfgang has an exciting and innovative way of looking at the dynamics of development in East Africa Wolfgang is an Afro-optimist and I know of many leaders who wait for his wisdom, analysis and ideas every week, says Mr Vimal Shah, the CEO of Bidco and former chairman of the Kenya Association of Manufacturers. In his writings, Wolfgang has succeeded in simplifying complex theories of development economics for ordinary readers while at the same time raising the curiosity of academics. He often gives a comparative picture of country data with similar economic status. Some of us in policy making have used his comparatives to revise policy and take corrective action, said Ministry of Information and Communications Permanent Secretary Bitange Ndemo.

The new government has been challenged to come up with numerous strategies to increase the countrys export competitiveness.

Outgoing World Banks Lead Economist Wolfgang Fengler says there is need to push growth of many sectors that will see Kenya export more than it imports goods and services.

He says Kenya has for a long time depended on agriculture despite other sectors showing high growth potential.

Huge number of imports, he says, make the country vulnerable to international economic shocks hence high inflation now and then.

Kenyas top exports are tea, tourism and horticulture. But Kenya cannot grow on these alone. We need something else like ICT, manufacturing and other sectors hence have more inflows, Fengler pointed out.

He says it is sad that Kenyas import is thrice its annual total export something he says has led to the continued high cost of key commodities.

Manufacturing stagnated a long time ago in Kenya, though it has been the driving force of other successful emerging economies. If more effort is put on this sector, it could earn the country billions of shillings, he said.

Encouraging exports means that more Kenyans will be involved in economic activities to meet the demand out there, he added.

Fengler was speaking during the launch of his book dubbed Realizing the Kenyan Dream in Nairobi on Monday.

Touching on previous challenges and mistakes, the book elaborates some of the key areas where Kenya can explore and move forward starting with the year 2013.

Kenya stands to grow further, he reckons, and it is unlikely that it will regress to the poor performance of the 1980s and 1990s.

There are three main reasons why Kenyas economic performance should be stronger. These include the strong macroeconomic fundamentals. Consumption will continue to drive economic activity and Kenya stands to benefit from Africas growth momentum, Fengler highlights in his book.

Poor operations at the port of Mombasa remains one of the main hurdles to Kenya's growth, the World Bank's lead economist in the region, Wolfgang Fengler has said. He said the port needs a major policy transformation as it holds the key to growth of most sectors like manufacturing, agriculture and trade. Given Mombasa geographic advantage, it has the potential of becoming a world class, competitive facility, he said yesterday. "The port of Mombasa is not for Kenya, it is for the whole of East and Central Africa, but Kenya can greatly leverage on the advantage it has," Fengler said after launching his new book titled 'Realizing the Kenyan Dream'. He said Kenya has very strong macro economic policies and political stability but needs to scale up the fight against corruption to create a conducive business environment . The World Bank Doing Business 2013 report ranked Kenya in position 121 out of 185 economies, a drop from position 117 in 2012.

"Improving the performance of the Mombasa port would require a concerted effort by a large number of players beyond the Kenya Ports Authority. For example enhanced performance of the port will not bear fruit if off-take through the roads and rail networks, does not improve as well," part of the book reads. There are also antiqued customs and regulations on the disposal of assets that need to be addressed as they have kept the the port and container freight stations crowded. "Kenya needs to be able to import and export in a fast and predictable way. Ports have a big role to play in the efficient flow of goods ..." he says in one of the articles in the book. He said there are some 15 economies which have managed to grow at a rate of 7 per cent a year for more that 15 years by embracing the world economy through trade. "This encouraged international companies to invest, and local companies eventually caught up and became world leaders, the best example is Samsung," said Fengler. Asia is home to the top nine ports in the world, top among them Shanghai, Singapore and Hongkong. Mombasa currently handles about 770,800 containers a year which is what the Singapore port handles in a week. He however said there is hope with plans to expand and construct new terminals since larger ships will be able to dock, cutting shipment costs and Kenya may regain some of the transshipment business it has lost. Fengler said an open port will open industries, agriculture and other activities and in turn create the much needed jobs. "The quickest way to create jobs is in manufacturing," he said.

Outgoing world bank lead economist,wolfgang fengler has predicted that kenyas economy could create a record number of jobs in the coming years if thejubilee govt retains its focus on infrastructure development. During his inauguration speech on april 9th,president uhuru Kenyatta said that his govt would keep its campaign promise to improve kenyas ailing infrastructure to become pride of the region. Fengler says this is the right focus; This is especially if govt allocates more resources to fix roads,airports,railways,water,communication,and health projects. With Kenya labour forcr expected to have grown to 45 m by 2035,fenler says the country cant risk not growing its job creation capability; Undertaking consistent infrastructure development is expected to boost economic growth and in the long run generate more jobs to growing population said the economist. Kenya currenty has an unemployment record of up to 77% among the youth in urban areas

Kenyas renewed focus on infrastructure offers a unique opportunity to adopt new approaches to employment generation and skills development.

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According to World Bank, sustained investment in infrastructure could see the countrys labour force shoot to 45 million by 2035. Today, the countrys workforce, both in public and private sector is estimated to stand at 10.9 million. Outgoing World Bank lead economist, Wolfgang Fengler observed that expansion of the labour force would be achieved on the basis of increased budgetary allocation to infrastructure development. He said more jobs would be created in the country in the next 22 years. This is especially if government allocates more resources to fix roads, airports, railways, water, communication, and health projects, Fengler said early this week in Nairobi. Fengler noted that Kenyas economic fundamentals are intact and if fully exploited will help address major ills hurting the economy mainly unemployment. Undertaking consistent infrastructure development is expected to boost economic growth and in the long run generate more jobs to the growing population, Mr Fengler said while launching a book entitled Realizing Kenya Dream. By 2030, the countrys population is expected to increase to over 60 million out of which about 75 per cent will be working in public and private sector. Global market Fengler explained that enhancing the infrastructure would equally make Kenya a competitive business player in the global market. President Uhuru Kenyatta during his inauguration speech last month promised that government would expand the country labour force by creating one million every year. The government, said the Head of State, would focus more on activities geared towards job creation and all line ministries and departments are expected to develop programmes to tame unemployment.

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In the 2013/14 Budget Estimates, government allocated youth development and empowerment services Sh25.86 billion. The money, according to the government, would be utilised to equip the youth with relevant skills, knowledge and right attitudes for the labour market and be productive citizens. The government expects the end of the coming fiscal year would have achieved generation of skilled manpower in building and artisan industries. Fengler said while other countries, for example, Germany would in over two decades have reduced their labour force, Kenya would be on an upward trend given support government would consistently accord to the economy. Countries in the world according to experts can use infrastructure investments to foster youth employment and skill development. They say new jobs can be directly created in the design, construction, operation and maintenance of infrastructure projects. Infrastructure projects can equally be designed to provide technical training opportunities for young people That is, Ministries responsible for such projects can upgrade their internal training centres, for example, partnering with local colleges, training institutes and vocational schools. Jobless Kenyans Further, infrastructure projects can support youth employment through entrepreneurial training. Young people working on such projects can acquire business and management skills to help them create and run their own enterprises. Official figures put the number of jobless Kenyans at 16 million. Most of them are the youth, and its the lack of employment which is driving many to crime. The United States Agency for International Development ( USAID) reports that over 500,000 Kenyans leave school every year, only to face the harsh reality that there are no jobs.

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The organisation notes that these graduates have a relatively high level of basic education, with a literacy rate at over 90 per cent.

A study by USAID states that, over the last six years, the Kenyan economy has generated only 150,000 jobs, leaving hundreds of thousands without employment.