Ambiguous Credibility of Indian Missile System; Consequences

By *Amanullah Khan

Note: The views presented in the article are that of the author’s and do not necessarily
represent the viewpoint of the Institute.

O
ne way to project military power for greater destruction is the use of
missiles in modern warfare. Technically advanced missiles can cause
immense damage to enemy assets. The credibility of a missile force is
heavily dependent on the accuracy of the system and the ability of the system to penetrate
enemy defenses.
India has spent valuable resources on building a strong missile capability. It has a
series of missiles which are set to achieve different objectives. Whether the missile
capability building is Pakistan centric or China centric, is not an important question
because the real test of time will come when and how these systems are used
during war situations and whether or not there are effective doctrinal nuances to stop
an accidental launch.. The Indian chain of command or their oscillating military doctrine
(limited to total war) leaves much to be desired. Faced with these odds Pakistani counter
measures are certainly aimed to deter India at its best.
However before we take the debate further two aspects needs to be understood
first is the ownership of the command and control and second is the credibility of the
Indian missiles. Looking at the Indian missile capability following facts are visible:
 India has both cruise and ballistic missiles. The latest long range ballistic missile of
India is Agni-III which is capable of reaching the range of 3500 km. Nag is the shortest
range (4 to 6 km) an anti-tank missile. In between them are the series of Prithvi and Agni.
Brahmos is the latest supersonic cruise missile, and some other like Akash and Trishul
are anti-aircraft missiles.
It is well understood that Indian missiles are able to reach each corner of Pakistan but
it is also an admitted fact that India’s missile program has major technological
shortcomings. Many of missile trials have been officially declared as failed tests and
there are so many unsuccessful tests which have been declared as successful for certain
political reason, and this is a grim reality. When we say failed then it means the
credibility is not believable and trustworthy. The quality of missile system is as important
as the quantity and most importantly their respective command and control. The reason is
that missile is launched for a set target, if that target is not hit accurately, then the use of
missile is worthless if not suicidal as it increases the capacity of the theatre of war
begging answer to the question in the current crises that is India prepared to have an
all out war with Pakistan and can the missiles ever be used as precision guided
munitions; the short answer is perhaps a negative as any use of missile could easily
lead to a counter response by Pakistan or even an accidental nuclear launch .. as
there is tenable measure through which we can decipher a conventional or a
nuclear strike launch in its inception Phase; hence increasing the risk of an accidental
nuclear war in region already fraught with the uncertainty of war. .
There is no doubt that South Asia is now a days at the verge of a nuclear war
between and India. Taking advantage of the Mumbai terrorist attack, Indian perhaps in
collusion with extra regional powers are believes that a preemptive strike on Pakistan
will be palatable to Islamabad ; the fact is it will lead war with Pakistan. Whether
Indian leadership believes in such a fallacy vis-à-vis Pakistan or can absorb the
pressure from abroad or not, has to be decided by the Indian government. But the
unacceptable consequences of war with a nuclear armed Pakistan should not be lost
sight of by the Indian leadership if they want to rise as regional power let alone a
global power. Increasing the war rhetoric or challenging Pakistani defence capabilities
favour of war would lead both rivals for large scale mutual destruction. It is expected and
is a rational choice too that war could not be imposed on Pakistan without an acceptable
of incalculable loss to India itself ; which no sober leadership in India would accept
or looks forward to .. But in case of Pak-India possible war, which India calls it, ‘limited
war’ it will not be limited for Pakistan as Islamabad maintains that the assured Defence
of ‘each inch of the terrority is the prime responsibility and directive of the Pakistan
defence forces’
India’s missile attack will be strongly retaliated by Pakistan particularly as no Indian
Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system is capable of thwarting a counter Pakistani
strike. Therefore, there is no way to intercept a Pakistani missile response. Pakistan
missiles can penetrate deep into Indian territory; changing the specter of war from
conventional to even nuclear.

* The author is a Research Fellow at South Asian Strategic Institute (SASSI).