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Introduction
an increase in global average surface temperature resulting from an increase in the amount of carbon dioxide, methane, and certain other trace gases in the atmosphere. These gases are known collectively as greenhouse gases because they contribute to a warming of the Earth's surface and lower atmosphere, a phenomenon called the greenhouse effect. In part because the emission of carbon dioxide is related to the essential use of carbon-based energy sources, the issue of global warming incorporates a broad scientific and political debate about its significance and consequences.
variability, which makes the detection and attribution of specific sources of change very difficult. If these difficulties were not challenging enough, researchers have postulated that, in addition to the production and emission of greenhouse gases, human-related activities such as changes in the use of the land surfacedeforestation, afforestation, desertification, irrigation, urbanizationcan also affect local, regional, and even global climate patterns. To further the understanding of climate, scientists have gathered detailed observations of various weather phenomena (such as temperature, precipitation, and storms) and of related influences on climate such as ocean currents and the atmosphere's chemical composition. Scientists have then used sophisticated computer models called general circulation models to incorporate these observations with the many factors that have an influence on climate in order to study past, present, and future climate patterns. These models have projected an increase in global average temperatures that will continue for decades as a result of greenhouse gas emissions. Concerned about such projections and their potentially severe consequences for human populations and the environment, nations around the world in the late 1980s and early 1990s focused their attention on developing policies to control greenhouse gases. One step was to organize the scientific community to provide information on a periodic basis to policy makers. Toward this end the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme formed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988.
The global average surface temperature range for each year from 1861 to 2000 is shown by solid red
The IPCC has produced several major assessments for policy makers. In 2001 the panel concluded that the previous 100 years had seen an increase in global average surface temperature of 0.6 C (1.1 F), with an error range of 0.2 C (0.4 F). The IPCC also estimated that by 2100 the global average surface temperature will have increased 1.4 to 5.8 C (2.5 to 10.4 F), depending on a range of scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions. The IPCC projected that future changes in climate are expected to include additional warming, changes in precipitation patterns and amounts, sea-level rise, and changes in the frequency and intensity of some extreme events. Such changes would likely have significant impacts on both human and ecological systems.
protocol) from developing countries (which are not included). Within developed countries the protocol has its proponents, who seek to reduce the risks of future humancaused climate change, and its opponents, who seek to avoid the risks that the protocol poses to economic development and growth. Debate has focused on the United States because it emits more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than any other country and because, in 2001, the United States government rejected the protocol for economic reasons. Despite the lack of support by the United States, the protocol garnered sufficient participation to go into force in 2005. The debate over the Kyoto Protocol involves questions of both science and economics, and it also involves considerations of environmental values and of international trade and diplomacy. Because the debate hinges on expectations about the future impact both of human activities on the climate and of government policy on national economies, there is considerable room for irreconcilable views and hence political stalemate. With hopes of resolving the stalemate, researchers have continued to develop more-precise observations of the Earth's climates and more-sophisticated general circulation and economic models in order to gain a clearer understanding of future changes and thereby increase the chances for policy action. However, after years of intensive research, three realizations have changed the international debate on global warming. The first is that even a full and successful implementation of the Kyoto Protocol may have only an imperceptible effect on the climate system, because the reductions in greenhouse gas emissions mandated by the protocol are dwarfed by those that scientists in the IPCC have said are needed to have a discernible influence on climate. Second, problems encountered in negotiating and ratifying the Kyoto Protocol suggest that political, economic, and technological considerations will make the protocol very difficult to implement. The protocol's proponents can only characterize it as a small first step or symbolic gesture, whereas its opponents can label it a costly boondoggle. The third realization is that the growing environmental, economic, and human costs associated with changes in climate depend less on the changes themselves than on patterns of development (e.g., demographics, wealth and poverty), decisions about where and how development takes place, the characteristics of health care systems, ecosystem management or exploitation, and other factors. As a sign of change in the international response to global warming, delegates at a meeting under the Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2002 in New Delhi issued a declaration concluding that actions are required to diversify energy supply by developing advanced, cleaner, more efficient, affordable and cost-effective energy technologies and also that adaptation to the adverse effects of climate changerequires urgent attention and action on the part of all countries. These conclusions suggest an alternative to the political stalemate because agreement on such actions does not depend on foreseeing changes in either the climate or national economies but can be justified on their own merits. No matter how the science and politics of global warming evolve over the coming years, one fact remains irrefutable: global warming presents a challenge that will be with us for decades, and perhaps centuries, to come.