EIA's IEO

International Energy Outlook 2013
for Center for Strategic and International Studies July 25, 2013 | Washington, DC by Adam Sieminski, Administrator
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis
www.eia.gov
Key findings of the International Energy Outlook 2013

With world GDP rising by 3.6 percent per year, world energy use will grow by 56 percent between 2010 and 2040. Half of the increase is attributed to China and India. Renewable energy and nuclear power are the worlds fastest-growing energy sources, each increasing by 2.5 percent per year; however, fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80 percent of world energy use through 2040. Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel in the outlook, supported by increasing supplies of shale gas, particularly in the United States. Coal grows faster than petroleum consumption until after 2030, mostly due to increases in Chinas consumption of coal, and slow growth in oil demand in OECD member countries. Given current policies and regulations, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase 46% by 2040, reaching 45 billion metric tons in 2040.
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
Economic activity and population drive increases in energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate this trend
average annual change (2010-2040) percent per year 7 6 5 4 3 Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population
2
1 0 -1 -2
-3
-4
U.S. OECD Europe Japan South Korea China India Brazil Middle East Africa Russia
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
Non-OECD Asia accounts for 60 percent of the world increase in energy use
world energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 400 OECD 300 Other Non-OECD Projections Non-OECD Asia
200
100
0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

By 2040, Chinas energy use will be double the U.S. level; Indias a little more than half despite its faster GDP growth
energy consumption by selected country quadrillion Btu History 2010 250 Projections
220
200
China 150 United States 100 India 50 107
55
0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing source of energy consumption
world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2010 250 Projections 28%
200
Liquids (including biofuels) 150 34% 28% Natural gas Coal
27% 23% Share of world total 15%
100
22%
50
11%
Renewables (excluding biofuels) 7%

Nuclear
5% 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Industrial sector energy consumption in China

China industrial sector energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu 100 Total
80
60
Coal
40 Electricity 20 Liquids
Natural gas
0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Renewables 2035 2040
Gross output curves shape Chinas industrial coal and oil use
China gross output for iron production real 2005 dollars (MER) 1,600 1,400 1,200 China gross output for chemical production real 2005 dollars (MER) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000
1,000
2,500 800
2,000
600 400 200 1,500 1,000 500 0 1990
0 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Source: Oxford Industrial Model Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
Liquid Fuels Markets
OPEC member countries contribute almost half of the total increase in world liquid supplies
world liquids production million barrels per day 70 60 50 50 40 30 20 10 2 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 35 Non-OPEC petroleum liquids 49 History 2010 Projections 62
OPEC petroleum liquids
Nonpetroleum
5 2040
10
Non-OPEC petroleum supply growth is concentrated in five countries

non-OPEC conventional production million barrels per day 14
2010
12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Brazil Canada Kazakhstan United States Russia
2040
OECD Europe Mexico/Chile
11
Brazilian and U.S. biofuels and Chinese CTL account for nearly 65 percent of the total increase in nonpetroleum supplies
world nonpetroleum liquids production in 2010 and 2040 million barrels per day
2010
Biofuels
Brazil
United States
Other
2040
Coal-to-liquids
2010 China Other 2040
2010 Gas-to-liquids
Qatar Other
2040 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
0.0
0.5
12
Production profiles of the three most petroleum-rich countries in the Middle East are uncertain
liquids production in Middle East OPEC in four Reference case scenarios million barrels per day 2040 Iran & Iraq success; Saudi Arabia takes the rest 6.0 8.1
Country
Saudi Arabia Iran
2011
11.1 4.2
Past as prologue 15.5 5.9
Iraq success 10.2 3.9
Iran success 13.8 8.1
2040 production range 9.5 4.2
Iraq
Other Middle East OPEC Total Middle East OPEC
Source: EIA, IEO2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
2.6
7.5 25.4
3.7
10.7 35.8
11.0
10.7 35.8
3.3
10.7 35.8
11.0
10.7 35.8
7.7
_ _
13
Natural Gas Markets
14
Non-OECD nations account for over 70 percent of the growth in natural gas consumption
world natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet 120 OECD Non-OECD 275 bcf/day 330
100
80
220 165
60
40
110
20
55
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
15
Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia, Middle East, and the United States account for the largest increases in natural gas production
growth in natural gas production 2010-2040 trillion cubic feet Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia 19 16 12 10 6 5 5 2 1
Middle East
United States Non-OECD Asia Africa Non-OECD Central and South America Australia/New Zealand Canada
Other OECD
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
16
Electricity Markets
17
In electricity generation, renewables and natural gas are the fastest growing sources, but coal still fuels the largest share in 2040
world electricity generation by fuel billion kilowatthours 45.0 History Projections
36% 30.0
Coal
24% 15.0 40%
Natural gas Nuclear
22%
Hydropower
0.0
1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Other renewables Liquids
18
China accounts for more than 40 percent of the global net increase in nuclear capacity
world nuclear electricity generating capacity, 2010 and 2040 gigawatts China OECD Europe OECD Americas 2010 2040
Other non-OECD
Russia India South Korea
Japan
50
100
150
200
19
Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions
20
Non-OECD Asia accounts for over 70 percent of the world increase in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons
25 OECD 20
History
Projections
Other Non-OECD
Non-OECD Asia
15
10
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
21
Coal continues to account for the largest share of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions throughout the projection
world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel billion metric tons 2010 History 50.0 Projections
40.0
30.0
Coal
20.0 Natural gas 10.0 Liquid fuels 0.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
22
There are many issues that increase uncertainty

Unresolved long-term effects of economic issues in the United States, Europe, and China
The timing of Japans full recovery from the impacts of the 2011 nuclear disaster at Fukushima
Social unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, and the potential for unrest elsewhere Shale gas and shale oil production potential
OPEC market share decisions

Climate policies
23
For more information

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
24
Supplementary Slides
25
IEO2013 includes 4 alternative cases that examine the sensitivity to different GDP growth and oil prices
Reference case
World GDP increases by 3.6 percent per year between 2010 and 2040 and energy consumption rises to 820 quadrillion Btu (quads) in 2040 Oil prices reach $163 (Brent in 2011 dollars) and the OPEC share of liquids production is 43% in 2040
High Economic Growth case

World GDP increases by 4.0 percent per year and consumption grows to 946 quads in 2040
Low Economic Growth case

World GDP increases by 3.1 percent per year and consumption grows to 733 quads in 2040
High Oil Price case

Oil prices rise to $237 per barrel as a result of high non-OECD demand and the OPEC share is 38% in 2040
Low Oil Price case

Oil prices are $75 per barrel as a result of low non-OECD GDP growth and the OPEC share is 51% in 2040
26
Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily as the global economy expands and the call on OPEC rises
Brent crude oil price paths real 2011 dollars per barrel 250 History 2011 Projections $237 High Oil Price 200 $163 150 Reference 100 $75 Low Oil Price
50
0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
27
Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand

world energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 600
2010 Projections 535
500
Non-OECD 400 282 OECD 200 242 285
300
100
0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
28
Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East

OPEC petroleum production million barrels per day 40.0 35.0 30.0 2010 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0
Middle East North Africa West Africa South America Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
2040
29
Shale oil and gas have the potential to dramatically alter world energy markets
map of basins with assessed shale oil and gas formations, as of May 2013
Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
30
Top ten countries with technically recoverable shale resources

Shale oil
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Country Russia United States China Argentina Libya Venezuela Mexico Pakistan Canada Indonesia World total Billion barrels 75 58 32 27 26 13 13 9 9 8 345
Shale gas
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Country China Argentina Algeria United States Canada Mexico Australia South Africa Russia Brazil World total
Trillion cubic feet
1,115 802 707 665 573 545 437 390 285 245 7,299
Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI. Note: ARI estimates U.S. shale oil resources at 48 billion barrels and U.S. shale gas resources at 1,161 trillion cubic feet. Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
31
Shale gas, tight gas, and coalbed methane are increasingly important to the United States, China and Canada
natural gas production trillion cubic feet 50 40 Shale gas 30 Coalbed methane 20 10 Tight gas
All other 0
2010 2040 2010 2040 2010 2040 China Canada
United States
32
Btu or Brithish thermal units, can be used as an energy measurement across different energy sources
One Btu is approximately equal to the energy released in the burning of a wood match.
One million Btu equals about 8 gallons of motor gasoline. One trillion Btu is equal to 500 100-ton railroad cars of coal. One quadrillion Btu is equal to 172 million barrels of crude oil.
33

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EIA's IEO

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International Energy Outlook 2013

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Independent Statistics & Analysis

Key findings of the International Energy Outlook 2013

0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

27% 23% Share of world total 15%

Renewables (excluding biofuels) 7%

Industrial sector energy consumption in China

Renewables 2035 2040

Liquid Fuels Markets

Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013

OPEC petroleum liquids

Non-OPEC petroleum supply growth is concentrated in five countries

OECD Europe Mexico/Chile

2010 China Other 2040

2040 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

Past as prologue 15.5 5.9

Iraq success 10.2 3.9

Iran success 13.8 8.1

2040 production range 9.5 4.2

Natural Gas Markets

Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013

Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013

24% 15.0 40%

Natural gas Nuclear

Other renewables Liquids

Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013

There are many issues that increase uncertainty

OPEC market share decisions

Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013

For more information

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013

Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013

High Economic Growth case

Low Economic Growth case

High Oil Price case

Low Oil Price case

Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013

Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand

Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East

Top ten countries with technically recoverable shale resources

Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013

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