1330-1400 Ball RFM PDF

REGIONAL FLOOD METHODS
Update on Pilot Studies
Australian Rainfall and Runoff

A guide to flow estimation
OVERVIEW
Project team RFFA methods in ARR 1987 Pilot study results for Victoria Status reports for other states
PROJECT TEAM
Dr Ataur Rahman Mr Khaled Haddad Associate Professor James Ball Mr Erwin Weinmann Professor George Kuczera Mr Mark Babister Dr William Weeks Dr David Kemp WA Representatives
METHODS IN AR&R 1987
Probabilistic Rational Method

Vic & Eastern NSW Frequency factors depend on elevation for six zones A-F for Eastern NSW.
Multiple regression relationship

Western NSW
Quantile Regression
ACT
Qld
No general method meets the primary criterion of being based on sufficient observed flood data. Main Roads Department Rational Method not easy to apply. Department of Primary Industries Rational Method - based on little/no observed streamflow records.
SA - South East Region

Probabilistic Rational Method (Based on observed data from 20 catchments). Department of Agriculture Method - Index type approach (based on floods data from 6 small agricultural catchments).
SA Northern and Western Region (Based on very little observed data)

Rational Method Bankfull frequency method Method of western NSW by McDermott and Pilgrim (1983). Regional Flood Frequency Method Based on records of 3 catchments.
WA
Five regions. Rational method & Index flood method. Methods were based on data from 12-28 catchments.
NT
Methods were based on limited data. Rational method.
Western Tasmania
Regional flood frequency method.
Eastern Tasmania
No design information based on observed data is available. Turners (1961) procedure is suggested.
METHODS TESTED
Probabilistic Rational Method Quantile Regression Technique

Ordinary least squares (OLS); and Generalised least squares (GLS).
PROBABILISTIC RATIONAL METHOD
CY is the central component of PRM
QY = 0.278 CY I t ,Y A
c
Limitations: Location based interpolation for CY Limited independent testing. Limited data on prediction uncertainty.
PROBABILISTIC RATIONAL METHOD
Advantages of PRM:
Easy to apply Simple regional approach with meaningful independent variables CY integrates effects of other flood generation and attenuation factors in the equation.
QUANTILE REGRESSION
QRT can be expressed as:
QT = aB bC c D d
B, C, D, are variables (catchment area, main stream slope, rainfall intensity) and a, b, c, are regression coefficients to be estimated by:
OLS (traditionally) GLS (preferable)
PRM and QRT
PRM was developed

FFY = CY/C10 C10 contour was mapped using MAPINFO
QRT - OLS method was developed using SPSS QRT - GLS method was developed using Statistical Package R. Independent testing was undertaken.
INTRODUCTION
Typical problems in streamflow data collation include: Unrepresentative sites; Missing records; and Outliers, trends and rating curve extrapolation errors.
SELECTION OF CANDIDATE STATIONS
Initially 415 candidate catchments selected from Victoria based on the following criteria:
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Catchment Area (up to 1000 km2) Record Length (initially 10 years was cut-off) Regulation Urbanisation Landuse change Quality of data
LOCATIONS (Vic)
Study area and geographical distributions of the candidate study catchments
INFILLING MISSING RECORDS
Method 1: Comparison of monthly instantaneous maximum (IM) data with monthly maximum mean daily (MMD) data for the year with data gap

Method 2: Regression of annual maximum mean daily flow series with annual instantaneous maximum series of the same station
Method 2 - Infilling by Regression

14000 12000
y = 1.8211x + 163.56 R2 = 0.9018
IMM (ML/d)
10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 0 2000

Y Linear (Y)
MMD (ML/d)
4000
6000
8000
273 data points from 187 stations were filled by Method 1 60 data points from 44 stations were filled by Method 2 10% of stations did not have any missing records. Only 7.5 % of data points were infilled.
10
TREND ANALYSIS
Two tests applied, Mann Kendall & Distribution Free CUSUM Test Mann Kendall test - checks for trends in time series; and CUSUM test - examines whether the mean values in two parts of a record are different.
TREND ANALYSIS
Mann Kendall test showed 21% of stations have decreasing trend after 1990s
Vk - Station 230210 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
1970 1975 1980 1985
Year Vk
Vk
Significant shift downwards, after the 1990s.

1990 1995 2000 2005
11
TREND ANALYSIS It was also useful to plot time series data as below.
IMM - Station 230210
12000 10000
Flow (ML/d)
8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Decrease in flows after 1986
1995
2000
2005
Year
This shows 10-15 years of significant downward trend

TREND ANALYSIS
Conclusions developed were Inclusion of sites with short records questionable Cut-off length introduced record 25 years minimum
A significant shift from ARR1987 (where minimum record length of 10 years was considered).
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RATING CURVE ISSUES
QE = annual maximum flood series data point (reported value) QM= maximum measured flow
Rating Ratio ( RR ) = QE QM
RR 1 - considered to be free of rating curve extrapolation error. a RR value >> 1 indicates potential rating curve error
RATING CURVE ISSUES
Graph shows typical example

Likely Rating Curve Error - 222202
6 5 4
Data points subject to possible rating curve errors
QE/QM
3 2 1 0 0 10 20 Data Point 30 40 50
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RATING CURVE ISSUES
A rating ratio of 20 may be adopted? Any station with RR>20 would be excluded.
Histogram of Rating Ratio Values
10000
4387
Frequency
1000
Frequency
384 111
90% of rating ratios lie between 1 & 20

61 19 18 18
100
Rating Ratio - RR
9 10 10 4 5 4 2 1 1 1 4 2 5 3 2 1 2 0 0
10
1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 More
Rating Ratio
AT-SITE FLOOD FREQUENCY
A LP3 distribution was fitted to each stations annual maximum flood data Bayesian parameter fitting procedure was adopted. FLIKE was used.
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VICTORIA PILOT STUDY
Locations of the study 133 catchments

CATCHMENT AREAS
60 50 40 Frequency 30 20 10 0 0 to 50 51 to 100 101 to 200 201 to 500 501 to 750 Catchment area (km2) 751 to 1000
Range: 3 997 km2 Mean = 319 km2
12% catchments < 50 km2, 20% catchments < 100 km2 and 80% catchments < 500 km2.
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STREAMFLOW RECORDS
100 Frequency 80 60 40 20 0 25 to 30 31 to 40 41 to 50 > 51 Record length (years)
Range: 25 to 52 years Mean: 32 years
CATCHMENT CHARACTERISTICS
Variable area forest Evap Rain S1085 sden I QSA Description Catchment area (km2) Fraction of catchment area under forest Mean annual areal potential evapotranspiration Mean annual rainfall Slope of central 75% of main stream Stream density Design rainfall intensity of 2 and 50 years ARI and 1 and 12 hours duration Fraction quaternary sediment area
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C10 CONTOUR MAP
C10 REGRESSION EQUATION

C10 = 2.631 0.125 log(rain) + 1.02 log(evap) + 0.072 log(S1085) + 0.128 log(sden)
rain = mean annual rainfall (mm) evap = mean annual evaporation (mm) S1085 = Slope of main stream (m/km) sden = stream density (km/km2)
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TESTING Q10 PREDICTION

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 T14 3 T8 18 T16 24 T10 36 T9 52
Q (m3/s)
Q10_PRM (C10 from contour map) Q10_PRM (C10 from regression) 90% CI-LL Q10_FFA 90% CI-UL
Test catchment/ Catchment area (km 2)

80 70 60 Q (m3/s) 50 40 30 20 10 0 T14 3 T8 18 T16 24 T10 36 T9 52 90% CI-UL Q50_PRM (C10 from contour map) Q50_PRM (C10 from regression) 90% CI-LL Q50_FFA
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RELATIVE ERRORS
MEDIAN RELATIVE ERROR
ARI (years) C10map C10equation
10
20
50
100
28
17
26
30
35
38
31
19
23
36
41
44
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FLOOD FREQUENCY PLOT

Station 227210
100000
10000
Discharge(ML/day)
1000
100
Gauged flow
Quantile - LP3 distribution
90% confidence limits of LP3 estimate PRM- C10 from regression
PRM - C10 from contour map

10 1.25 2
10
20
50
100
200
Annual Exceedance Probability (1 in Y)
QRT PREDICTION EQUATIONS

log( Q ) = b 0 + b1 log( area ) + b 2 log( rain ) + b 3 log( sden ) for T = 2 years log( Q ) = b 0 + b1 log( area ) + b 2 log( I 2 _ 12 ) + b 3 log( sden ) for T = 5 years log( Q ) = b 0 + b1 log( area ) + b 2 log( I 2 _ 12 ) + b 3 log( rain ) + b 4 log( sden ) for T = 10 , 20 , 50 , 100 years
Only 4 variables are required:
area in all equations sden in all equations I2_12 for T = 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years rain for T = 2, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years.
20

50 45 40 35 Q (m3/s) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 T14 3 T8 18 T16 24 T10 36 T9 52 Q10_OLS Q10_GLS 90% CI-LL Q10_FFA 90% CI-UL
Test catchment/ Catchment area (km2)

100 90 80 70 Q (m3/s) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 T14 3 T8 18 T16 24 T10 36 T9 52 Q50_OLS Q50_GLS 90% CI-LL Q50_FFA 90% CI-UL
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RELATIVE ERRORS
FLOOD FREQUENCY PLOT
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SUMMARY PILOT STUDY
The updated PRM can provide design flood estimates with reasonable accuracy. C10 values can be obtained from
C10 contour map or developed prediction equation (provides less biased results).
SUMMARY PILOT STUDY
Median relative error values for the new PRM ranged from 17% to 44%. For 7% cases relative error values > 100%. The PRM tends to underestimate flows compared to flood frequency estimates, with 60% of the cases being underestimated.
23
SUMMARY PILOT STUDY
Prediction equations have been developed for Victoria using OLS and GLS methods. Little differences in prediction equations between OLS and GLS. GLS procedure provides better estimation reliability.
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REGIONAL FLOOD METHODS

Update on Pilot Studies

Australian Rainfall and Runoff

Australian Rainfall and Runoff

A guide to flow estimation

Australian Rainfall and Runoff

A guide to flow estimation

METHODS IN AR&R 1987

Probabilistic Rational Method

Multiple regression relationship

METHODS IN AR&R 1987

METHODS IN AR&R 1987

SA - South East Region

Australian Rainfall and Runoff

A guide to flow estimation

METHODS IN AR&R 1987

SA Northern and Western Region (Based on very little observed data)

Australian Rainfall and Runoff

A guide to flow estimation

METHODS IN AR&R 1987

METHODS IN AR&R 1987

Australian Rainfall and Runoff

A guide to flow estimation

Probabilistic Rational Method Quantile Regression Technique

Australian Rainfall and Runoff

A guide to flow estimation

PROBABILISTIC RATIONAL METHOD

CY is the central component of PRM

PROBABILISTIC RATIONAL METHOD

Australian Rainfall and Runoff

A guide to flow estimation

QRT can be expressed as:

PRM and QRT

PRM was developed

Australian Rainfall and Runoff

A guide to flow estimation

SELECTION OF CANDIDATE STATIONS

Study area and geographical distributions of the candidate study catchments

Australian Rainfall and Runoff

A guide to flow estimation

INFILLING MISSING RECORDS

Australian Rainfall and Runoff

A guide to flow estimation

INFILLING MISSING RECORDS

Method 2 - Infilling by Regression

y = 1.8211x + 163.56 R2 = 0.9018

10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 0 2000

Australian Rainfall and Runoff

A guide to flow estimation

INFILLING MISSING RECORDS

Australian Rainfall and Runoff

A guide to flow estimation

Australian Rainfall and Runoff

A guide to flow estimation

Significant shift downwards, after the 1990s.

Australian Rainfall and Runoff

8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Decrease in flows after 1986

This shows 10-15 years of significant downward trend

RATING CURVE ISSUES

RATING CURVE ISSUES

Graph shows typical example