Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| July 18, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| July 18, 2013

Highlights
US Building Permits declined to 0.91 million in the last month. UKs Claimant Count Change declined by 21,200 in the month of June. Housing Starts fell to 0.84 million in the previous month. Asian markets are trading on a mixed note today on the back of statement from International Monetary Fund (IMF) that Chinas economic growth will miss its estimates. However, statement from US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke eased the concerns regard regarding tapering in its stimulus measures prevented sharp fall in global market sentiments. US Building Permits declined to 0.91 million in June as against a rise of 0.99 million in May. Housing Starts fell to 0.84 million in June from earlier rise of 0.93 million a month ago.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 17, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

5973.3 19948.7 15470.52 1680.9 15695.0 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 106.48 1290.80 19.92

0.3 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.1 -1.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5

2.7 3.4 1.2 1.7 0.1 7.4 28.6 -0.1 0.0 3.5 4.0

2.1 3.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 5.9 21.3 11.1 8.4 -6.0 -7.9

14.9 9.1 20.8 23.3 15.5 2.0 7.2 66.3 19.3 -18.9 -27.0

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) gained around 0.2 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk aversion in global markets in early part of the trade. Further, unfavorable economic data from US acted as a positive factor for the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of statement from US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke regarding ease in concerns for pullback in its stimulus measures. The DX touched an intra-day high of 83.06 and closed at 82.84 on Wednesday.

6899.00 102.09

-1.5 0.0 -

1.5

-12.1 -

-9.7 1.4

4.7

2.8

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated yesterday in the early part of the trade on the back of increase in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 13 sectors by government on Tuesday. . Further, upbeat domestic market sentim sentiments acted as positive factor. Additionally, expectation that Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will sell 120 billion rupees in bonds market on Thursday supported an upside in the currency. However, during the day the currency wiped off its gains and depreciated d on account of dollar demand from importers. The central banks sold dollars at 59.50-levels levels to provide respite to fall in the Rupee but ended on a depreciation note and declined by 0.1 percent. The currency touched an intra-day low of 59.575 and closed at 59.32 on Wednesday. For the month of July 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.5,887.40 crores th ($980.92 million) as on 17 July 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.66,6290.90 crores ($12,519.90 million) till 17 July 2013. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect the Rupee to appreciate on account of expectations of sale of 120 billion Rupees in bond market by the RBI today. Further, weakness in the DX will support an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in n the currency will be capped as a result of mixed global market sentiments.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day WoW

as on July 17, 2013 MoM YoY

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR July13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

82.84 59.32 59.60 59.60

0.2 -0.1 0.50 0.51

-1.7 0.9 -0.55 -0.60

1.5 -2.1 2.84 2.81

4.3 -6.8 8.02 8.03

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for July 18, 2013 Support 59.20/58.90 Resistance 59.70/59.95

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| July 18, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated around 0.3 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of strength in the DX. Further, weak global markets in the early part of the trade acted as a negative factor for the currency currency. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.3083 and closed at 1.31 1.3124 against the dollar on Wednesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect the Euro to trade higher on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, expectations of favorable economic data from the region will support an upside in the currency currency. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped on account of mixed global markets. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 78.0/77.80 78.60/78.90 valid for July 18, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on July 17, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3124 77.61 78.3 78.3

-0.3 -0.5 0.64 0.55

1.2 -1.0 1.90 1.86

-1.8 -0.5 1.40 1.32

6.8 -11.6 15.63 15.61

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated around 0.4 percent in yesterdays trading session taking cues from favorable economic data from the country. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of strength in the DX. . The Sterling Pound touched an intra intra-day high of 1.5267 and closed at 1.5212 against dollar on Wednesday. UKs Claimant Count Change declined by 21,200 in June as against an earlier fall of 16,200 in May. Average Earnings Index increased by 1.7 percent in May from previous rise of 1.3 percent a month ago. Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 7.8 percent in the month of May. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note today on the back of weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped as a result of slow growth in countrys retail sales data along with mixed global markets. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for July 18, 2013 Support 90.40/90.20 Resistance 90.90/91.20
Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)

as on July 17, 2013

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5212 90.239 90.80

0.35 0.70 1.38

1.3 -0.40 1.58

-3.2 -1.19 -0.22

-2.8 4.54 5.38

90.78

1.36

1.52

-0.25

5.37

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| July 18, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated around 0.5 percent in the yesterdays trade on account of rise in risk appetite in the global markets in later part of the trade which led to fall in demand for the currency. 99.57 against The Yen touched an intra-day low of 99.93 and closed at 99. dollar on Wednesday. Outlook For intra-day trade, we expect the Japanese Yen to de depreciate, taking cues rise in risk appetite in the global markets, which could lead to decline in demand for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for July 18, 2013 Support 59.50/59.20 Resistance 60.0/60.30 Last Prev day as on July 17, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

99.57 0.5959 59.83

0.5 -0.32 0.13

-0.1 -1.47 -0.19

5.4 -3.01 -2.01

26.4 -14.47 -14.18

59.83

0.17

-0.13

-2.03

-14.17

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on July 18, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Current Account Retail Sales m/m Spanish 10-y Bond Auction Unemployment Claims Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Euro UK Euro US US US

1:30pm 2:00pm Tentative 6:00pm 7:30pm 7:30pm

21.3B 0.2% 343K 8.5

19.5B 2.1% 4.77/1.8 360K 12.5

Medium High High High High High

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