ASEAN and Global Rice Situation and Outlook, 2011-2022

ASEAN and Global Rice Situation
and Outlook, 20112022

Eric J. Wailes
and Eddie C. Chavez
The lead author, Eric J. Wailes, is

Distinguished Professor at the Department
of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness,
University of Arkansas
Contents
Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................. v
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 1
1. Overview ............................................................................................................................... 2
1.1 Purpose of this Outlook and its Significance for ASEAN ................................................. 2
1.2 The Arkansas Global Rice Model Framework ................................................................. 2
2. ASEAN Rice Outlook ............................................................................................................ 4
2.1 Rice Harvested Area and Production.............................................................................. 4
2.2 Rice Consumption .......................................................................................................... 5
2.3 Rice Exports ................................................................................................................... 5
2.4 Rice Imports ................................................................................................................... 7
2.5 Rice Stocks .................................................................................................................... 7
3. ASEAN Country Rice Outlook ............................................................................................... 7
3.1 Brunei Darussalam .......................................................................................................... 7
Economy...................................................................................................................... 7
Rice Supply and Demand ............................................................................................ 8
3.2 Cambodia ........................................................................................................................ 8
Economy...................................................................................................................... 8
3.3 Indonesia ......................................................................................................................... 9
Economy...................................................................................................................... 9
3.4 Lao Peoples Democratic Republic .................................................................................10
Economy.....................................................................................................................10
Rice Supply and Demand ...........................................................................................10
3.5 Malaysia .........................................................................................................................10
Economy.....................................................................................................................10
3.6 Myanmar ........................................................................................................................11
Economy.....................................................................................................................11
3.7 Philippines ......................................................................................................................12
Economy.....................................................................................................................12
3.8 Singapore .......................................................................................................................12
Economy.....................................................................................................................12
3.9 Thailand .........................................................................................................................13
Economy.....................................................................................................................13
3.10 Viet Nam ......................................................................................................................14
Economy.....................................................................................................................14
4. Global Rice Outlook .............................................................................................................14
4.1 International Rice Prices .................................................................................................14
4.2 Global Rice Supply and Demand ....................................................................................15
4.3 Key Global Policy Assumptions ......................................................................................16

4.4 Global Rice Trade...........................................................................................................17
4.5 Key Non-ASEAN Rice Countries ....................................................................................17
4.6 Peoples Republic of China .............................................................................................18
Economy.....................................................................................................................18
4.7 Japan .............................................................................................................................18
Economy.....................................................................................................................18
4.8 Republic of Korea ...........................................................................................................19
Economy.....................................................................................................................19
4.9 India ...............................................................................................................................20
Economy.....................................................................................................................20
4.10 Pakistan .......................................................................................................................20
Economy.....................................................................................................................20
5. Stochastic Analysis ...............................................................................................................21
5.1 Baseline Results .............................................................................................................21
5.2 Use of the Baseline for Assessing Self-Sufficiency and Trade Impacts...........................23
6. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................25
References ...............................................................................................................................27
Appendixes
1. Rice Models of the Arkansas Global Rice Economics Program ............................................29
Arkansas Global Rice Model ................................................................................................29
Riceflow Model .....................................................................................................................30
2. Aggregate Rice Supply and Utilization Tables for ASEAN Countries .....................................32
3. ASEAN Rice Supply and Utilization Tables by Country .........................................................37
4. Other Non-ASEAN Country Rice Supply and Utilization Tables from 20112012
to 20222023 ........................................................................................................................42
5. World Net Rice Trade, Per Capita Use, and Average Yield Tables by Country...............................45
Tables
Table 1: World Rice Supply and Utilization, 20112022 .............................................................. 16
Table 2: Impact of Self-Sufficiency in Indonesia and the Philippines
on Baseline Rice Exports from Viet Nam ................................................................................ 25
on Baseline World Long-Grain Rice Reference Price ............................................................. 25
Appendix 2
Table A2.1: ASEAN Rice Supply and Utilization.......................................................................... 32
Table A2.2: ASEAN Rice Trade .................................................................................................. 33
Table A2.3: ASEAN Rice Area Harvested ................................................................................... 34
Table A2.4: ASEAN Rice Yield per Hectare ................................................................................ 34
Table A2.5: ASEAN Rice Production........................................................................................... 35
Table A2.6: ASEAN Rice Consumption ....................................................................................... 35
Table A2.7: ASEAN Per Capita Rice Consumption ..................................................................... 36

Table A2.8: ASEAN Rice Ending Stocks ..................................................................................... 36
Appendix 3
Table A3.1: Brunei Darussalam Rice Supply and Utilization........................................................ 37
Table A3.2: Cambodia Rice Supply and Utilization ..................................................................... 37
Table A3.3: Indonesia Rice Supply and Utilization ...................................................................... 38
Table A3.4: Lao PDR Rice Supply and Utilization ....................................................................... 38
Table A3.5: Malaysia Rice Supply and Utilization ........................................................................ 39
Table A3.6: Myanmar Rice Supply and Utilization ....................................................................... 39
Table A3.7: Philippines Rice Supply and Utilization .................................................................... 40
Table A3.8: Singapore Rice Supply and Utilization ..................................................................... 40
Table A3.9: Thailand Rice Supply and Utilization ........................................................................ 41
Table A3.10: Viet Nam Rice Supply and Utilization ..................................................................... 41
Appendix 4
Table A4.1: Peoples Republic of China Rice Supply and Utilization ........................................... 42
Table A4.2: Japan Rice Supply and Utilization ............................................................................ 43
Table A4.3: Republic of Korea Rice Supply and Utilization.......................................................... 43
Table A4.4: India Rice Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 44
Table A4.5: Pakistan Rice Supply and Utilization ........................................................................ 44
Appendix 5
Table A5.1: World Net Rice Trade by Selected Countries and Prices ......................................... 45
Table A5.2: Per Capita Rice Consumption, World and Selected Countries ................................. 46
Table A5.3: Rice Yield per Hectare, World and Selected Countries ............................................ 47
Figures
Figure 1: Projections of Population Growth and Gross Domestic Product ..................................... 4
Figure 2: ASEAN Rice Area Harvested, Yield, Supply and Utilization ........................................... 5
Figure 3: ASEAN Rice Trade ........................................................................................................ 6
Figure 4: World Rice Prices, 19952022 ..................................................................................... 15
Figure 5: World Rice Area Harvested, Yield, Supply and Utilization ............................................ 16
Figure 6: Regional Shares of World Net Rice Trade, 20112022 ................................................ 17
Figure 7: Long-Grain Rice International Reference Prices (Stochastic Projection) ...................... 22
Figure 8: ASEAN Rice Ending Stocks (Stochastic Projection) ..................................................... 22
Figure 9: Indonesias Baseline Yield Gap to Achieve Self-Sufficiency ......................................... 23
Figure 10: Philippines Baseline Yield Gap to Achieve Self-Sufficiency ....................................... 23
Figure 11: Baseline Probability of Achieving Self-Sufficiency in Indonesia .................................. 24
Figure 12: Baseline Probability of Achieving Self-Sufficiency in the Philippines........................... 24
Appendix 6
Figure A6.1: Medium-Grain Rice Prices, FOB California (Stochastic Projection) ......................... 48
Figure A6.2: World Net Rice Trade (Stochastic Projection) ......................................................... 48
Figure A6.3: ASEAN Total Rice Area Harvested (Stochastic Projection) ..................................... 49
Figure A6.4: ASEAN Total Rice Production (Stochastic Projection) ............................................ 49
Figure A6.5: ASEAN Total Rice Consumption (Stochastic Projection) ........................................ 50
Figure A6.6: ASEAN Net Rice Exports (Stochastic Projection) .................................................... 50
Figure A6.7: ASEAN Net Rice Imports (Stochastic Projection) .................................................... 51
Figure A6.8: ASEAN Rice Stocks-to-Use Ratio (Stochastic Projection) ....................................... 51
Abbreviations
ADB
AGRM
ASEAN
FAPRI
GDP
kg
Lao PDR
PRC
US
USDA
USDA FAS
WTO
Asian Development Bank

Arkansas Global Rice Model
Association of Southeast Asian Nations
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute
gross domestic product
kilograms
Lao People's Democratic Republic
People's Republic of China
United States
United States Department of Agriculture
United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service
World Trade Organization
Unless otherwise noted, $ refers to US dollars.
Executive Summary
Member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) play a major role in the
global rice market. Over the next decade, the ASEAN region is projected to account for 53% of net
rice exports, 18% of net rice imports, 29% of harvested area, 25% of total rice production, and 22%
of total rice consumption. Rice is the major food staple in ASEAN countries and thus plays a
significant role in the food security concerns of the region. The rice price crisis that occurred in
20072008 has created a widespread sense of urgency among policy makers and other rice
stakeholders to coordinate domestic policies and rice trade.
This paper documents the current and projected status until 2022 of the rice economies in ASEAN
countries by assessing their potential supply and demand paths over the next decade.1 Other Asian
nations that have a significant role in the behavior and performance of the global rice economy are
also discussedthe Peoples Republic of China (PRC), Japan, the Republic of Korea, as well as
India and Pakistan.
While the ASEAN and global rice economies are always subject to uncertainties in weather and
policies, abundant rice supplies and slow growth in rice consumption have resulted in downward
pressure on prices. Driven by the use of higher-yielding rice varieties and other improved
production technologies, the outlook for the rice economies is expected to follow this trend. The
focus on self-sufficiency by major rice-consuming countries is expected to restrain rice trade and
dampen international rice prices over the next decade.
Domestic price policy supports, coupled with good weather, have resulted in strong rice harvests
in India and Thailand and large stock inventories. Import demand growth in other ASEAN countries
is limited for similar reasons. Much of the projected growth in rice trade is expected to come from
other regions, particularly Africa. Despite the desire for self-sufficiency and a trend for production
to grow faster than demand, major ASEAN rice importersthe Philippines and Indonesiaare
expected to remain important importers. Expected expansion in rice exports from Cambodia and
Myanmar will add to competitive price pressures that will result in lower international prices over
time.
Results of stochastic analysis, based on uncertainties associated with production, show that
international long-grain rice reference prices are expected to range from $368 per ton to as high as
$506 per ton, a gap of $138. Volatility in prices as a result of uncertain weather and policies thus
remains a persistent food security concern with the ASEAN and global rice economies.
This report was prepared for the Second ASEAN Rice Trade Forum on 45 June 2013 in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The
Asian Development Bank (ADB) provided technical assistance under TA-REG 7495: Support for the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations Plus Three Integrated Food Security Framework, with financing from the Japan Fund for
Poverty Reduction. The lead author, Eric J. Wailes, is Distinguished Professor and L. C. Carter Endowed Chair at the
Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Division of Agriculture, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville.
Eddie C. Chavez is Senior Program Associate and a member of Dr. Wailes team that developed and maintains the
Arkansas Global Rice Model and Riceflow model. This report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the
Government concerned, or the institutions at which the consultant works, and ADB and the Government and these
institutions cannot be held liable for its contents.
2 | Second ASEAN Rice Trade Forum 2013
1. Overview
1.1 Purpose of this Outlook and its Significance for ASEAN
Member nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) play a major role in the
global rice market. Over the next decade, the regions rice output is projected to account for 53%
of net exports, 18% of net imports, 29% of harvested area, 25% of total production, and 22% of
total consumption of world rice. Rice is the major food staple in ASEAN and thus plays a very
important role in the food security concerns of the region. The rice price crisis that occurred in
20072008 has catalyzed renewed interest and a widespread sense of urgency among policy
makers and other rice stakeholders to forge more coordinated efforts to avoid a repeat of such an
occurrence.
The purpose of this outlook is to document the current state and the expected directions of the rice
economies in ASEAN countries by assessing their potential supply and demand paths over the
next decade. As the ASEAN region is a net rice exporter to the world, the region is influenced by
factors prevailing in the global rice economy and cannot be looked at in isolation. An overview of
the global rice sector is hence included in this report.
It is important to note that over the last couple of years, the international rice market has been
dominated by twin events. First is Indias official lifting of its ban on non-basmati rice exports as of
September 2011. Second is Thailands implementation of its paddy pledging scheme in October
2011, a price-floor support policy for Thai farmers.
The outlook is not a prediction but rather a framework to be used to discuss the management of
risks of rice price volatility and their causes, including policies, supply distortions, and climate
change. The Arkansas Global Rice Model (AGRM) framework provides the ASEAN region with
functional structural models that can be used to assess intermediate and longer-term challenges
faced by the region, which meet the goal of designing a set of coherent and coordinated policy
actions to address emerging issues proactively.
1.2 The Arkansas Global Rice Model Framework
The 10-year baseline deterministic and stochastic estimates presented in this report are generated
using the AGRM. The AGRM is one of the two global rice modeling frameworks maintained by the
University of Arkansas Global Rice Economics Program. The AGRM is a partial, nonspatial,
multicountry statistical simulation, and econometric analytical framework. The other model,
Riceflow, is a spatial equilibrium framework that tracks bilateral trade flows and rice value chain
adjustments (Appendix 1).
These models are updated on a regular basis and have been used to provide analyses for the
Asian Development Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, International
Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, United
States Department of Agriculture, the World Bank as well as many national governments and
research institutes. All ASEAN member nations are modeled individually in AGRM. This model links
all countries through rice prices and trade (Wailes 2012). The AGRM is disaggregated into 45 of
the major rice-producing, -consuming and -trading countries; and five rest-of-the-world regional
aggregations: Africa, the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. Each country and regional model
includes a supply sector, a demand sector, trade, stocks, and price linkage equations.
ASEAN and Global Rice Situation and Outlook, 20112022 | 3
The AGRM and Riceflow are research application tools that provide frameworks of the global rice
economy and ASEAN countries as a system. They can thus address a wide range of issues and
questions regarding price risks, policies, and supply and demand distortions (Wailes 2012). The
10-year baseline deterministic and stochastic estimates presented in this report are generated
using the AGRM. The baseline assumes the following:
a continuation of existing rice sector policies;

macroeconomic projections from Global Insight, a global information company that
provides economic forecasts, industry analysis, and market intelligence for over 200
countries and 170 industries;
no Doha Development Round of World Trade Organization (WTO) trade reforms; and
average weather conditions.
The stochastic component of the analysis provides a range of possible outcomes (confidence
intervals) as opposed to the deterministic analysis that generates average point estimates. The
stochastic framework is generated using multivariate empirical distributions of the rice yield for each
of the 50 countries/regions in the model. Yield is used because it is the variable that not only varies
by year and by country but is also very sensitive to changes in weather conditions and water
availabilityfactors that are critical for rice production.
A total of 200 random draws for each year are implemented using a 28-year empirical distribution
of historical yields generated by the software Simulation and Econometrics to Analyze Risk
(SIMETAR) developed by Richardson et al. (2008). Stochastic estimates are useful because
underlying assumptions in the deterministic baseline usually do not hold true in reality, i.e., actual
market outcomes deviate from average estimates.
The theoretical structure, general equations, and other details of the AGRM can be found in the
online documentation by Wailes and Chavez (2011). The AGRM has benefited from working closely
with the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) based at the University of
Missouri, Columbia, which maintains United States (US) agricultural and other commodity models.
FAPRI provided data on commodity prices and net returns projections, which are transmitted into
the different AGRM country models. In particular, the prices and net returns for corn, soybeans,
and wheat are relevant, considering that these commodities are substitute crops for rice in the US
and other countries. Rice area competes with a number of crops, including soybeans, corn, and
cotton in the rice-producing states in the US (Arkansas, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri,
and Texas). In the Peoples Republic of China (PRC), rice competes with corn in the provinces of
Guangxi, Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning; with wheat in the province of Jiangsu; and with both corn
and wheat in the provinces of Anhui, Chongqing, Guizhou, Hubei, Ningxia, Sichuan, and Yunnan.
In India, rice competes with wheat, particularly in the northern states (Carriquiry et al. 2012 as cited
by Wailes and Chavez 2013).
The historical rice data are obtained from the Production, Supply, and Distribution report (Rice
Outlook) of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)
and Economic Research Service as of March 2013. The AGRM rice marketing years by country
generally follow the USDA system. For example, the year 2012 or marketing year 20122013 in
the model refers to January 2013December 2013 for Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam; October
2012September 2013 for India; July 2012June 2013 for the Philippines; and April 2012March
2013 for South American countries. Hence, supply values for 2012 are fixed for some countries
while still dynamic for a number of countries.2 As such, the annual cumulative growth rates as well
as the total growth presented in this document are reckoned from 2011 and cover the 11-year
period of 20112022. For the most part, the data on the economies of individual countries came
from the online Central Intelligence Agency World Fact Book (2013).
2. ASEAN Rice Outlook3

2.1 Rice Harvested Area and Production
The conditioning macroeconomic environment for the rice outlook is based on projections of
population growth and economic growth (gross domestic product [GDP]) for the region. While the
ASEAN population growth has historically exceeded world averages, it is expected to converge to
the global average of approximately 1% until 2022. Projections for ASEAN and the ASEAN Plus
Three,4 and for India and Pakistan, have slightly declining GDP growth but are clearly more robust
than for the rest of the world (Figure 1). Appendix 2 provides the estimates for the ASEAN region,
Appendix 3 for the 10 ASEAN member nations, Appendix 4 for the non-ASEAN countries (PRC,
Japan, Republic of Korea, as well as India and Pakistan), and Appendix 5 for the world net rice
trade, per capita use, and average rice yield tables by country.
Figure 1: Projections of Population Growth and Gross Domestic Product
ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations; Plus3 = People's Republic of China, Japan, Republic of Korea;
IN = India; PK = Pakistan.
Source: Wailes and Chavez.
Total ASEAN rice output is projected to expand by a total of 15.9 million tons over the baseline
period, growing at 1.2% annually, from nearly 114.6 million tons in 2011 to 128.8 million tons in
2022with the growth coming mainly from yields as area harvested gains only marginally (Figure
2 and Table A2.1).
The ASEAN region contributes just under 25.0% of global rice production. The ASEAN rice
harvested area accounts for 29.0% of the global total. The regions rice area harvested is projected
to expand by a total of 414,000 hectares over the next decade, reaching 46.66 million hectares in
2
3
For details, see the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service site: http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdAvailability.aspx
An extended version of the AGRM baseline is available upon request. The extended version, World Rice Situation and
Outlook 2012-2022, provides detailed tables and projections for all key individual rice-importing and rice-exporting
countries for all regions of the world.
The ASEAN Plus Three is composed of the 10 member nations of ASEANBrunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia,
the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Namplus
the three East Asian nations of the Peoples Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea.
2022. This is equivalent to a marginal growth of 0.08% per year. The average rice yield of the region
is projected to improve from 2.47 tons per hectare in 2011 to 2.76 tons per hectare in 2022a total
increase of 319 kilograms (kg) per hectare, equivalent to an annual growth of 1.12% (Appendix 2).
Figure 2: ASEAN Rice Area Harvested, Yield, Supply and Utilization
The regions average rice yield level is lower than the world average by about 15%. However, the
yield gap is projected to narrow down to 403 kg per hectare in 2022 from 493 kg per hectare in
2011, primarily as more countries in the region expand the use of hybrid rice varieties. Thus,
improving farm productivity is the most promising direction that countries in the region need to focus
on, which entails expanding the use of high-yielding hybrids and improved production technologies.
This should be the priority both of countries aiming for rice self -sufficiency and those that are trying
to expand exports in the face of limited land and other production resources.
Challenges for rice expansion in the region include constraints on land and water resources;
competition from other crops and uses; high input prices; farm demographics; climate change; and
the emerging issue on rice carbon and water footprints. Another concern that has implications for
the future of rice farming is the migration of people from rural areas to urban centers in search of
alternative non-farm income opportunities. In conjunction with aging farmers, this situation can
aggravate labor scarcity in the agricultural sector of the region.
2.2 Rice Consumption
Rice consumption is driven by income, population, and other demographics. Rising incomes
dampen rice demand in some Asian countries where rice is considered an inferior good. Other
factors include aging populations and increasing health consciousness that shift diet preferences
away from carbohydrates and toward protein-based foods.
The ASEAN rice total consumption accounts for 22.1% of the world total. Over the next decade,
ASEAN rice total use will expand from 100.7 million tons in 2011 to 113.5 million tons in 2022,
attaining a growth of 1.10 % annually (Figure 2). The average ASEAN rice per capita use has been
2.5 times the world average (164 kg versus 65 kg over the last decade). The growth in the regions
total rice consumption over the baseline period is driven by a population growth of 1.06% annually
(Table A2.6) as the average per capita use of rice is projected to be flat (Table A2.7).
2.3 Rice Exports
ASEAN net rice exports declined 16.9% in 2011 from the 2010 level of 18.6 million tons, largely
due to the 4.1-million ton or 39.3% drop in Thai exports as a result of the countrys paddy pledging
program that made its quoted export prices much higher than its competitors prices. The regions
net rice exports went up 4.6% in 2012 as Thailands export shipments gained 19.8%, mainly
through government-to-government sales.
Reflecting the same historical average share, the total ASEAN net rice exports are expected to
account for 52.6% of the total global volume over the projection period (20112022). The combined
net rice exports of ASEAN are projected to grow at 3.0% per year, from 15.4 million tons in 2011
to 21.4 million tons in 2022 over the same period. Two of the top five world rice exporters, Thailand
and Viet Nam, are both ASEAN members, which are projected to jointly account for about 47% of
the growth of global net exports during the same period (Figure 3 and Table A2.2).
Figure 3: ASEAN Rice Trade
Lao PDR = Lao People's Democratic Republic.

Despite Thailands unpopular and controversial paddy pledging program, the country is expected
to reestablish its strong presence in the global rice market over the next decade. Recent
government pronouncements indicate that the country has decided to sell its mounting rice
stockpile both into the open market and through government-to-government sales. The Thai
government is expected to incur substantial financial losses in the short term as it sells its highpriced rice at competitively lower prices.
Cambodia and Myanmar are projected to increase their rice exports steadily as production
continues to exceed consumption. Good availability of land and water resources in these two
countries offers opportunities to expand rice production and rice exports. This, however, is subject
to their ability to build the necessary infrastructure and institutional support to export larger volumes
on a sustained basis. Over the last few years of the baseline, both countries are projected to reach
a similar magnitude of rice exports of approximately 1.6 million tons.
The Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) also has the potential to become an important
rice exporter in the region, subject likewise to its ability to successfully undertake infrastructure
capacity and institutional building. Over the last half of the baseline period, the country is projected
to shift from being a net rice importer to a net rice exporter, reaching nearly 200,000 tons of net
rice exports by 2022.
The issue of unofficial cross-border trade of rice in the ASEAN region remains unresolved. The
total elimination of this problem is challenging. However, minimizing it will improve transparency in
rice trade and prices, and will contribute to generating more reliable market information for better
decision-making purposes.
2.4 Rice Imports

The average share of ASEAN net rice imports to total world trade is projected to expand from 16.5%
over the last decade to 18.3% over the next decadegrowing from just under 5.0 million tons in
2011 to 6.8 million tons in 2022 (Figure 3 and Table A2.2). The combined ASEAN net rice imports
declined 15.9% in 2011 from the 2010 level as a result of a 36.7% reduction in Indonesias imports,
as the country supplies its domestic rice needs from expanded production and withdrawal from its
stocks.
The regions net rice imports recovered by 4.9%, from 4.96 million tons in 2011 to 5.2 million tons
in 2012, as the projected increase in Philippine imports for stock replenishment more than
compensates for the decline in Indonesias importsas the latter opts to continue withdrawing from
its stocks. Over the last few years, the Indonesian and Philippine governments have focused on
their goal of rice self-sufficiency and their efforts should be commended. As a result, the two
countries are projected to make gains in productivity, raising output mostly from increased yields
with the expanded use of high-yielding hybrids as area harvested remains relatively flat. Over the
projection period, the average rice yields are projected to grow annually by 1.1% for Indonesia, and
by 1.8% for the Philippines.
However, attaining rice self-sufficiency presents a daunting challenge for the two countries,
considering that the historical average annual production gap for Indonesia stands at 7%
(equivalent to 2.9 million tons) of annual consumption, and that of the Philippines is 16% (about 2.2
million tons). Estimates indicate that if Indonesia and the Philippines were to prioritize maintaining
relatively safe stock levels over the baseline periodeven lower than the historical pathchances
are they will remain the top rice importers in ASEAN: Indonesia will rank second, and the
Philippines, third, with a combined share of 13.6% of global net rice import volume. The regions
growth in rice demand is driven mainly by population growth, as per capita use in most countries is
on the decline, with per capita use in a few countries either flat or with marginal gains over the
projection period.
2.5 Rice Stocks
The ASEAN average rice stocks-to-use ratio is projected to increase from 16.9% during the last
decade to 24.4% over the next decade due to the paddy pledging-related buildup in Thai stocks.
The annual stocks-to-use ratio will increase steadily from 19.3% in 2011 to 28.1% in 2022. The
average share of ASEAN rice stocks to the global total is estimated to go up from 17.2% during the
last decade to 21.1% over the baseline period. For the projection period, the annual share of the
regions rice stocks in the global total would expand from 18.3% in 2011 to 22.2% in 2022 (Table
A2.8).
3. ASEAN Country Rice Outlook5

3.1 Brunei Darussalam
Economy
Brunei Darussalams economy is projected to grow at 2.7% per year in real terms. It is heavily
5
See Appendix 2 for individual ASEAN country rice situation and outlook supply and utilization estimates.
dependent on revenues from crude oil and natural gas, which account for 60% of GDP and 90% of
exports. The country is the third largest oil producer in Southeast Asia and the fourth largest
producer of liquefied natural gas in the world. By sector, the countrys GDP is composed of 0.6%
agriculture, 71.7% industry, and 27.7% services.
The countrys population is 415,717 and grows at 1.69% per year; 89% is under 55 years old. Per
capita income, at $50,500 in 2012, is one of the highest in the world. The labor force totals 205,800,
with 4.2% in agriculture, 62.8% in industry, and 33.0% in services. The local currency, the Brunei
dollar (BND or B$), had an exchange rate of B$1.25 in 2012 and is projected to appreciate relative
to the US dollar over the baseline period.
Rice Supply and Demand
The country consumed 53,000 tons of milled rice in 2011, with about 97% coming from imports.
Rice per capita use generally ranges from 120 kg to 123 kg per year over the projection period.
Given the population growth, this translates to an annual increase of about 2.0% in total rice
consumption. To meet this demand, net rice imports are seen to grow by just under 1.0% per year
(Table A3.1). Only 2.1% of the countrys 5,765-square kilometer land area is considered arable.
The USDA reports that the country produces 1,000 tons of milled rice from 1,000 harvested
hectares. Eventually, the government plans to increase the area planted to rice to 5,000 hectares,
depending on the availability of suitable land that can be developed without damaging the
ecological balance.
To improve food security, the country has a goal of 60% self-sufficiency in rice by 2015 despite its
limited land. The government has been seriously exploring ways to increase rice output since 1978,
and indications are that it will continue to do so. Recent efforts are focused on availing of rice
technical assistance and training from neighboring countries. Another option mentioned is entering
into joint venture agreements with neighboring rice-producing countries to own and operate rice
farms.
3.2 Cambodia
Economy
Garments, construction, agriculture, and tourism have been driving Cambodias economic growth
since 2004, causing real GDP to grow over 6% per year in 20102012, among the strongest in
Southeast Asia. The garment industry accounts for 70% of the countrys total exports. The economy
is composed of 34.7% agriculture, 24.3% industry, and 41% services. The population is 15.2 million
and grows at 1.69% per year; 91% is below 55 years old. Per capita income is $2,400. Out of its
labor force of 7.9 million, 55.8% is in agriculture, 16.9% in industry, and 27.3% in services. The
local currency, the riel (KHR or KR), had an exchange rate of KR4,075 in 2012 and is projected to
depreciate relative to the US dollar over the baseline, which will improve the countrys export
competitiveness
The country harvested 2.77 million hectares of rice in 2011, yielding an average of 1.54 tons per
hectare. Total milled rice production stands at 4.27 million tons, growing at 3.0% per year, mainly
from yield growth (2.9%) as area is up only marginally (0.1%). Total rice consumption (3.45 million
tons in 2011) grows at 2.1% annually and is projected to reach 4.34 million tons in 2022, mainly as
a result of 1.5% population growth as per capita use increases only 0.60% per year. The countrys
rice exports expand at 6.6% per year, which are estimated to double from 795,000 tons in 2011 to
1.6 million tons in 2022. The USDAs rice export figures for Cambodia are much higher than those
quoted or reported elsewhere because the USDA includes both the estimated cross-border trade
and the official trade for rice. This reportedly involves some information gathering and verification
from the ground. The USDA believes this approach makes the supply and demand data more
realistic. As Cambodia attains improvements in yields and continues to have production surplus,
rice exports are projected to expand steadily, doubling from 800,000 tons in 2011 to 1.61 million
tons by 2022 (Table A3.2).
However, to accelerate official rice exports at a sustained level, Cambodia needs to accomplish
two things: to invest in infrastructure development, and to control and manage the reportedly
rampant unofficial cross-border trade of unmilled rice into its neighboring countries. In so doing, the
countrys farmers can benefit from improved value-added revenues by directly exporting milled rice.
The settlement of the cross-border trade issue will require strong political will from top-level officials
of the countries involved in formulating well-coordinated and implementable diplomatic solutions.
3.3 Indonesia
Economy
During the global financial crisis, Indonesia outperformed its regional neighbors and joined the PRC
and India as the only Group of 20 members that posted growth in 2009. Introducing a number of
significant financial reforms and conservative fiscal policies, the countrys economy grew over 6%
in 2010 and 2011. Estimated real GDP growth in 2012 is 6%. By sector, the countrys economy is
composed of 15.4% agriculture, 46.5% industry, and 38.1% services. The countrys population is
251.2 million and projected to grow at 1.03% annually; 86% is under 55 years old. Per capita
income is $5,000. Its labor force stands at 118 million, with 38.9% in agriculture, 22.2% in industry,
and 47.9% in services. The local currency, the rupiah (IDR or Rp), had an exchange rate of Rp9,670
in 2012 and is projected to depreciate relative to the US dollar over the baseline period.
The countrys 12.16 million hectares of harvested rice produced 36.50 million tons of milled rice in
2011 at an average yield of 3.0 tons per hectare. Total rice production is projected to grow at 1.1%
annually, solely from yield gain. The rate of land conversion to non-agricultural uses near urban
areas in Java is at a reported high rate of 100,000 hectares per year. This has made it difficult to
expand the rice area, which does not augur well for the countrys rice self-sufficiency goal. Total
rice consumption (39.55 million tons in 2011) grows at 0.95% per year, mainly as a result of
population growth as per capita consumption gains under 0.1% annually (Table A3.3).
Indonesia sources about 6% of its domestic rice requirement from imports and its government has
been constantly trying to limit importation. Recently, however, the country signed a 5-year
agreement with Viet Nam to import 1.5 million tons of rice annually starting in 2013. The countrys
rice imports recently declined dramatically, from 3.1 million tons in 2010 to under 2.0 million tons
in 2011, due to the combination of increased domestic production and withdrawal from its stocks.
During the same period, while the total area harvested increased by 85,000 hectares and the
average yield improved by 60 kg per hectare, there was also a substantial decline of 18% (or 1.1
million tons) in its stocks.
Rice imports are estimated to further contract to 1.8 million tons in 2012 as the country continues
to resort to withdrawing from its stocks. Assuming a stock level equivalent to 26 days of
consumption, annual rice imports are projected to remain around 2.8 million tons. This estimate is
relatively low compared to the historical level of about 49 days during the last decade, but this is
consistent with the stock management style shown recently by the Indonesian government.
3.4 Lao Peoples Democratic Republic
Economy
Still a one-party communist state, the country began decentralizing control and encouraging private
enterprise in 1986, causing its economy to attain a robust growth north of 7% from 20082012,
albeit from a low base. The Lao PDR, however, is heavily dependent on capital-intensive natural
resource exports and is constrained by underdeveloped infrastructure especially in rural areas. By
sector, the countrys economy is composed of 26.0% agriculture, 34.0% industry, and 40.0%
services. The countrys population is 6.70 million and projected to grow at 1.65% per year; 91% is
under 55 years old. Per capita income is $3,000. Out of its labor force of 3.7 million, 75.1% is in
agriculture, and the rest in industry and services. Agriculture labor is dominated by rice cultivation
in lowland areas. The local currency, the kip (LAK or KN), had an exchange rate of KN8,018 in
2012 and is expected to depreciate relative to the US dollar over the projection period.
The country has 817,000 hectares of rice, producing 1.4 million tons of milled rice in 2011 at an
average yield of 1.71 tons per hectare. Total rice production is estimated at 3.4% per year, of which
2.1% comes from yield and 1.3% from the annual gain in area harvested. Total rice consumption
(1.44 million tons in 2011) grows at 1.63% per year, resulting mainly from population growth as per
capita rice consumption grows only 0.09% annually over the baseline period. With production
growing faster than consumption, the country is expected to become a minor rice exporter over the
next decade, with shipments projected to grow from 9,000 tons in 2016 to 295,000 tons by 2022
(Table A3.4).
3.5 Malaysia
Economy
Malaysias economy is driven by exports, mainly electronics, oil and gas, palm oil, and rubber.
However, the current government is reportedly trying to boost domestic demand and reduce
dependence on exports. The countrys economy grew by 4.5% in 2012. By sector, the countrys
economy is composed of 11.9% agriculture, 41.2% industry, and 46.8% services. The population
is 29.63 million and projected to grow at 1.54% per year; 87% is under 55 years old. Per capita
income is $16,900. The labor force stands at 12.92 million, with 11.1% in agriculture, 36.0% in
industry, and 53.5% in services. The local currency, the ringgit (MYR or RM), is projected to have
a stable exchange rate of around RM3.07 to the US dollar over the baseline period.
The country harvested 675,000 hectares of rice in 2011, producing 1.69 million tons of milled rice
at an average yield of 2.50 tons per hectare. Total rice production grows at 1.33% annually, coming
from yield improvement of 0.98% and an increase in area harvested of 0.34%. For the longer term,
the government is reportedly encouraging large-scale private-sector commercial paddy production,
especially in the states of Sabah and Sarawak where land is still abundant.
The government has reportedly reduced the rice self-sufficiency target to 70% from the original
goal of 90%. Under the new food security policy, the governments strategies are designed to
ensure a sufficient supply of rice that include maintaining a government rice stockpile equivalent to
45 days of consumption, entering into long-term contract agreements to import rice, and increasing
the productivity of existing rice areas through infrastructure upgrade, without developing new areas.
Total rice consumption (2.71 million tons in 2011) grows at 1.90% per year, which is largely due to
population growth as per capita consumption is up only 0.50% annually. Rice self-sufficiency is
currently around 60%. The balance of Malaysias rice needs is sourced mainly from Viet Nam,
Thailand, and Pakistan, in that order. The countrys net rice imports are estimated to grow by 2.3%
per year, from 1.08 million tons in 2011 to 1.39 million tons by 2022 (Table A3.5).
3.6 Myanmar
Economy
Myanmar is a resource-rich country but its economy is reportedly constrained by pervasive
government controls, inefficient economic policies, and rural poverty. While the government has
good economic relations with neighboring countries, significant improvements are needed in the
business climate and the political situation to attract serious foreign investments. Despite the
constraints, however, the countrys economy attained real growth of 5.5% in 2011 and 6.2% in
2012. By sector, the countrys economy is composed of 38.8% agriculture, 19.3% industry, and
41.8% services. The countrys population is 55.17 million and grows at 1.07% per year; 88% is
under 55 years old. Per capita income is $1,400. The labor force totals 33.41 million, with 70.0% in
agriculture, 7.0% in industry, and 23.0% in services. The local currency, the kyat (MMK or MK),
had an exchange rate of MK868 in 2012 and is projected to have a relatively stable exchange rate
with the US dollar over the baseline.
The countrys harvested rice area is projected to expand at 0.65% per year, from 6.5 million
hectares in 2011 to nearly 7.0 million hectares in 2022. Total milled rice production reached 10.82
million tons in 2011 and is growing at 1.94% per year, 1.29% of which comes from yield growth.
Average yield is forecasted to improve from 1.66 tons per hectare in 2011 to 1.92 tons per hectare
in 2022. Total rice consumption will increase from 10.2 million tons in 2011 to 11.7 million tons in
2022, equivalent to a growth of 1.25% annually, with nearly 1.0% resulting from population growth
and 0.26% from per capita consumption (Table A3.6).
As Myanmars yield-based growth in domestic rice output continues to exceed that of domestic
consumption, rice exports are projected to expand steadily over the baseline, from 690,000 tons in
2011 to 1.59 million tons by 2022. As in the case of Cambodia, adequate investments in
infrastructure development will be required to achieve this level of growth.
The country has promising opportunities to expand its rice exports due to substantial improvements
in milling facilities. Since 1990, the number of rice mills reportedly increased from 225 to 1,230, rice
polishers from 10 to 28, and color sorters from 1 to 9. These improvements should support
postharvest quality and loss reduction, which would augur well for expanding the countrys
presence in the global rice market.
3.7 Philippines
Economy
Driven by consumer demand, exports, investments, and election-related spending, the Philippine
economy expanded by 7.6% in 2010. Growth slowed to 3.9% in 2011 but recovered and grew by
6.6% in 2012. The country weathered the recent global recession better than most of its Asian
neighbors due to its minimal exposure to troubled international investments, lower dependence on
exports, relatively resilient domestic consumption, a growing outsourcing industry on business
processing, and strong support from the dollar remittances of overseas workers. By sector, the
countrys GDP is composed of 11.9% agriculture, 31.1% industry, and 57.0% services. The
countrys population is 105.72 million and grows at 1.87% per year; 90% is under 55 years old. Per
capita income stands at $4,300. The country has a labor force of 40.36 million, with 32.0% in
agriculture, 15.0% in industry, and 53.0% in services. The exchange rate of the Philippine peso
(PHP or P), the local currency, was P42.23 in 2012 and is projected to depreciate slightly relative
to the US dollar over the baseline
The country produced 10.70 million tons of milled rice from 4.58 million hectares in 2011, based on
an average yield of 2.34 tons per hectare. Total rice production is projected to grow at 1.91%
annually, largely from yield improvements (1.80%) by using more hybrids, as potential expansion
in harvested area is limited. Rice faces land use competition from industrialization and the growth
of the real estate sector in the country (Oryza 2013). This makes rice area expansion and the
attainment of the countrys rice self-sufficiency goal much more challenging. Total rice consumption
is estimated to grow at 1.71% per year, from 12.85 million tons in 2011 to 15.48 million tons in
2022, solely as a result of population growth as per capita consumption declines marginally (Table
A3.7).
The Philippines imports about 14% of its domestic rice requirement, and the government tries to
limit importation in line with its self-sufficiency target in 2013. The government planned to reduce
rice imports from 1.5 million tons in 2011 to 0.5 million tons in 2012 by increasing support to farmers
and encouraging the use of hybrids. However, to maintain a reasonable stock level, it is assessed
that the country has to import an estimated 1.9 million tons in 2012.
Assuming that a stock level equivalent to 50 days of consumption is maintained, annual rice imports
are projected to remain around 2.2 million tons. This amount is below the countrys historical stock
level of about 126 days during the last decadeor even the Philippine governments 90-day buffer
stock policy. However, this is in line with the recent practice of the government to minimize rice
importation in support of the countrys self-sufficiency goal.
3.8 Singapore
Economy
Singapore has a very successful free market economy that depends heavily on the exportation of
consumer electronics, information technology products, pharmaceuticals, and financial services.
The countrys average real GDP grew above 8% in the 4 years preceding the global financial crisis,
but contracted as exports weakened during the crisis, then recovered in 2010 and 2011, before
declining again to 1.3% in 2012 as a result of the recession in Europe. Singapores economy is
composed of 26.8% industry, 73.2% services, and marginal agriculture. The countrys per capita
income is $60,900, the seventh highest in the world. In Asia, only Qatar has a higher level of income
at $102,800, which is also the highest in the world.
The countrys population is 5.46 million and grows at 1.99% per year; 82% is under 55 years old.
Out of its labor force of 3.62 million, 0.1% is in agriculture, 19.6% in industry, and 80.3% in services.
The local currency, the Singapore dollar (SGD or S$), had an exchange rate of S$1.25 in 2012 and
is projected to appreciate slightly relative to the US dollar over the next decade.
The country does not produce rice, depending entirely on the international market for its domestic
rice needs. The USDA does not show any rice stocks for the country, so imports are assumed to
simply match total consumption. The countrys imports are projected to grow at 0.83% annually,
from 350,000 in 2011 to 383,000 by 2022 (Table A3.8).
To ensure food security, the country is reportedly aiming to transform itself from being a passive
food importer to a more active contributor to the regional and global food system through urban
agribusiness, realizing that it has little land to grow its own food. The strategy has four prongs: (i)
to accelerate research and development; (ii) to turn Singapore into an agribusiness hub where the
private sector will play a key role; (iii) to develop Singapores own domestic market into a test lab
for urban agriculture (e.g., rooftop farming); and (iv) to shift toward greater local production of
three key food itemseggs, leafy vegetables, and fish (Kassim 2011).
3.9 Thailand
Economy
Growth in Thailands economy is driven by industrial and agricultural exports, consisting mainly of
electronics, agricultural commodities, automobiles and parts, and processed foods. Thailands
economy expanded 7.8% in 2010, but growth was interrupted in the last quarter of 2011 by historic
flooding in the industrial areas of Bangkok and the surrounding provinces. The economy recovered
in 2012, with the GDP growing at 5.5%.
The economy is composed of 8.6% agriculture, 39.0% industry, and 52.4% services. The
population is 67.45 million and growing at 0.54% per year; 80% is under 55 years old. Per capita
income is $10,000. The country has a labor force of 39.77 million, with 38.2% in agriculture, 13.6%
in industry, and 48.2% in services. The local currency, the baht (THB or B), had an exchange rate
of B31.09 in 2012 and is projected to be stable relative to the US dollar over the baseline.
The country harvested 11.0 million hectares of rice in 2011, yielding 1.86 tons per hectare on
average. Total milled rice production is 20.46 million tons, growing at 0.89% per year, which solely
comes from yield growth as area harvested is flat over the projection period. Total rice consumption
(10.40 million tons in 2011) is projected to grow at 0.41% annually, solely due to population growth
as per capita use declines marginally over the same period (Table A3.9).
The rice pledging scheme implemented by the government starting in October 2011 has
constrained Thai rice exports, causing a substantial decline in shipments and a consequent
excessive buildup in stocks. The government announced recently that a portion of the rice stocks,
especially the old crop, will be sold through the open market and government-to-government
arrangementseven at a loss. The country has to do this not only to get rid of the deteriorating old
rice crops in storage but also to recoup its top position in global rice trade, which it has recently lost
to India. The countrys chances are favorable, given its good infrastructure resources and concerted
focus on developing a strong presence in branded high-quality rice (Wailes and Chavez 2013b).
The baseline thus projects that Thailand will eventually regain its leading market share in the
international rice market.
3.10 Viet Nam
Economy
In recent years, the Vietnamese government has reaffirmed its commitment to economic
modernization. Membership in the WTO in January 2007 has promoted export-driven industries.
Vietnam also became an official negotiating partner in the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade
agreement in 2010.
The global recession hurt Viet Nam's export-oriented economy, with the GDP growing at only 5%,
its slowest rate of growth since 1999. In 2012, however, annual exports recovered and expanded
more than 18%. The countrys economy is projected to have a robust growth of about 6.5% over
the projection periodone of the strongest among the ASEAN economies. Viet Nams economy is
composed of 21.5% agriculture, 40.7% industry, and 37.7% services. The countrys population is
92.48 million and growing at 1.05% annually; 87% is under 55 years old. Per capita income is
$3,500. The labor force of 39.77 million constitutes 48.0% in agriculture, 21.0% in industry, and
31.0% in services. The local currency, the dong (VND or D), had an exchange rate of D20,828 in
2012 and is projected to depreciate relative to the US dollar over the baseline.
The country harvested 7.74 million hectares and produced 27.08 million tons of milled rice in 2011,
or an average yield of 3.50 tons per hectare, which grows at 0.83% annually. Total milled rice
production grows at 0.57% per year, all of which comes from yield growth as area harvested
contracts by 0.26% annually. Total rice consumption (19.65 million tons in 2011) grows at 0.90%
per year, solely due to population growth as per capita consumption declines by 0.04% per year
(Table A3.10).
Taking advantage of reduced rice exports from Thailand as a result of the paddy pledging scheme,
Viet Nam (along with India and Pakistan) has expanded its rice exports and pegged its price at very
competitive world reference levels. As a result, Viet Nams net rice exports in 2011 exceeded that
of Thailands by 1.3 million tons. The country aims to strengthen its presence in the international
market by focusing on improved rice quality and by expanding export opportunities to new markets
such as the PRC. An issue that the country may have to address is the reported unofficial crossborder rice trade coming from its neighboring countries. As growth in Viet Nams total domestic rice
consumption exceeds domestic output, the countrys exports are projected to be relatively flat,
around 7.0 million tons over the baseline.
4. Global Rice Outlook

4.1 International Rice Prices
The international rice prices are highly volatile due to a number of reasons. Rice has inelastic supply
and demand throughout much of Asia, where it is the dominant food staple. While rice is the primary
staple for half of the worlds population, it is thinly traded. Only about 7% of rice production is traded
as opposed to 10% for coarse grains and 16% for wheat (Wailes and Chavez 2012). The
international rice trade is highly concentrated, with five dominant playersThailand, India, Viet
Nam, Pakistan, and the US, in that orderaccounting for 89% of global net trade.
Despite slow growth in rice consumption, increased rice output, driven by the use of higher-yielding
varieties and hybrids and other improved production technologies as well as the more focused selfsufficiency programs of major rice-consuming countries, is expected to expand supply. This will
dampen international rice prices over the next decade. The situation is beneficial for food-deficit
rice-importing countries in the developing world but could have uncertain response from rice
producers and exporters (Wailes and Chavez 2013b). The average international long-grain rice
reference price is projected to decline steadily from $477 per ton in 2011 to $430 per ton in 2022.
The average medium-grain rice price, however, would be generally stable above $800 per ton over
the same period (Figure 4).
Figure 4: World Rice Prices, 19952022
LG = long-grain (rice), MG = medium-grain (rice), FOB = freight on board, CA = California.

4.2 Global Rice Supply and Demand

Rice is the most important food crop of the developing world and the staple food of more than half
of the world's population, accounting for more than 20% of daily caloric requirement (IRRI 2013).
World rice production, rice consumption, rice stocks, and rice trade projections are shown in Table
1. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected to increase to more than 28% over the projection period,
providing a potential improvement in global rice and food security.
Over the baseline period (20112022), the world rice output grows at 0.8% per year, with 0.7%
coming from yield improvement and 0.1% from slight growth in area harvested (Figure 5 and Table
1). Driven solely by population growth, the total global rice consumption gains 0.9% annually as
the average world per capita rice use declines slightly (Figure 5 and Table A5.2).
Table 1: World Rice Supply and Utilization, 20112022

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
160,981
161,007
160,976
160,888
160,720
3.08
3.10
3.12
3.14
3.16
(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested
159,173
159,036
160,083
160,188
160,435
2.93
2.95
2.97
3.00
3.03
160,913
160,848
(Tons per Hectare)

Yield
3.04
3.06
(Thousand Tons)
Production
467,043
469,431
475,486
481,114
485,700
489,882
492,108
495,391
498,816
502,278
505,734
508,407
98,821
106,100
105,798
108,486
112,694
117,169
122,489
126,835
130,941
134,467
138,124
141,160
565,863
575,531
581,285
589,599
598,394
607,051
614,597
622,225
629,757
636,745
643,858
649,567
Consumption
458,248
470,038
473,070
477,129
481,434
484,761
487,984
491,526
495,525
498,834
502,922
506,084
Ending Stocks
106,100
105,798
108,486
112,694
117,169
122,489
126,835
130,941
134,467
138,124
141,160
143,695
564,349
575,837
581,555
589,823
598,603
607,250
614,818
622,467
629,991
636,958
644,082
649,778
39,335
36,496
37,883
39,146
39,893
40,449
40,779
41,189
41,649
42,039
42,872
43,371
26.64
27.14
27.69
28.07
28.39
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Domestic Use
Total Trade
(Percent)
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
23.15
22.51
22.93
23.62
24.34
25.27
25.99
Figure 5: World Rice Area Harvested, Yield, Supply and Utilization
4.3 Key Global Policy Assumptions

Two recent events have had significant impacts on the dynamics of the global rice market: one is
Indias official lifting of its ban on non-basmati rice exports on September 2011, and the other is
Thailands implementation of its paddy pledging scheme in October 2011. Indias return as a major
rice exporter was motivated by the need to reduce excessive rice stocks that accumulated as a
result of the export ban and by good weather conditions in 2009 and 2010. The Thai price-floor
support policy for Thai farmers guarantees minimum prices for paddy rice that results in a longgrain milled rice price. Since the policys initial implementation, the paddy pledging price continues
to be 30%50% higher than trading prices offered by other export competitors such as Viet Nam
as well as India and Pakistan.
While Thailands intervention program is market distorting because producers are paid higher than
world market prices, the policy has not adversely affected international rice trade as much as
initially anticipated. This is because of abundant exportable rice stocks and increased price
competition from the other major rice-exporting countriesIndia, Pakistan, Viet Nam, and
increasingly, Cambodia and Myanmar. Consequently, Thailands rice export volumes in 2011
declined dramatically by 44% while rice export supplies from the other major exporters dominated
international trade (Figure 3). Thailands share of global net rice exports declined to 19% in 2011
compared to a historical average of 34% during the 5-year period of 20062010 (Wailes and
Chavez 2013b).
4.4 Global Rice Trade
While criticism and opposition to the Thai pledging scheme abound, the government of Thailand
has reauthorized the extension of the program for marketing years 20122013 and 20132014. As
expected, with Thailands mounting rice stocks, burdensome costs of storage, and limited export
shipments because of non-competitive high prices, Thailand recently announced a plan to release
a portion of its stocks from previous seasons to the international market at a loss (The New York
Times 2013). The baseline assumes a continuation of this policy and the willingness of the Thai
government to export at a loss. As depicted in Figure 6, the baseline projects a return to a larger
export share for Thailand and to a consequent increase in the global share of ASEAN net rice
exports from 47% in 20112012 to 55% by 20212022 (Table A2.2 and Table A5.1).
Figure 6: Regional Shares of World Net Rice Trade, 20112022
The bulk of the world net rice imports are shipped to countries in Africa, ASEAN, and other Asian
regions (Table A5.1). Figure 6 also shows the projected shifts in regional rice import shares. The
projections suggest that ASEAN net rice import shares will increase slightly from 15% in 2011
2012 to 17% by 20212022 as efforts to attain self-sufficiency are offset by population growth in
Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines (Table A2.5). The dominant rice-importing region, Africa,
will maintain an import share of 40% over the projection period. Significant growth is projected for
other Asian regions (Bangladesh, the PRC, and the Middle Eastern countries), increasing from
27% in 20112012 to 32% by 20212022. Accessing other markets in Africa and Asia will thus
provide a growth opportunity for ASEAN rice-exporting countries.
4.5 Key Non-ASEAN Rice Countries
There is no doubt that the resumption of Indias long-grain rice exports, which began in September
2011, has had substantial effects on international rice trade and prices. To a large extent, it has
neutralized the potential upward price impact of Thailands paddy pledging scheme. As a result,
global rice prices have remained stable at relatively lower levelsbenefiting consumers especially
in food-deficit countries. A relatively recent development in global trade is the emergence of the
PRC as a major rice importer, which has been taking advantage of attractive lower rice prices over
the last couple of years. Hence, a baseline outlook for other key Asian countries is useful.
4.6 Peoples Republic of China
Economy
Since the PRC has restructured its economy from a closed, centrally-planned system to greater
market orientation in the late 1970s, the efficiency gains have caused its GDP to expand over
tenfold since 1978. The country became the worlds largest merchandise exporter in 2010. The
economy grew by 7.8% in 2012, albeit lower than the 9.3% growth registered in 2011 and 10.4%
in 2010. The economy is projected to have robust growth over the next decade, although at a pace
slightly lower than in previous years. The economy is composed of 10.1% agriculture, 45.3%
industry, and 44.6% services. The PRC is the worlds most populous country, with a population of
1,349,600, which is only growing at 0.48% per year; 79% of the population is under 55 years. Per
capita income is $9,100. The country has a massive labor force of 795.4 million, with 34.8% in
agriculture, 29.5% in industry, and 35.7% in services. The local currency, the renminbi (RMB) or
yuan (CNY), had an exchange rate of CNY6.31 in 2012 and is projected to appreciate relative to
the US dollar over the baseline.
The PRC harvested 30.06 million hectares of rice and produced 140.7 million tons of milled rice in
2011 at an average yield of 4.68 tons per hectare. Yields are expected to grow at 0.66% annually.
Total milled rice production declines at 0.17% per year, as a 0.82% annual contraction in area
exceeds gains in average yield. The total rice area is projected to contract by 2.6 million hectares
over the next decade as the countrys agricultural economy diversifies. Total rice consumption is
estimated to decline by 0.17% per year, as the population growth of 0.36% per year is not enough
to compensate for the annual decline in per capita use of 0.53%.
The country was a net rice exporter of about 633,000 tons per year during 20052009. But in
reaction to lower international rice prices, it became a significant net rice importer in 2011 (with
1.79 million tons of rice imports and 0.44 million tons of rice exports) and in 2012 (with 2.42 million
tons of rice imports and 0.50 million tons of rice exports). Over the baseline, the country is projected
to remain a net rice importer by an average of 1.0 million tons. The PRC maintains a relatively high
stocks-to-use ratio of 0.32 to 0.50, which augurs well for its food security (Table A4.1).
4.7 Japan
Economy
Government stimulus spending helped the economy recover in late 2009 and 2010 from the
recession in 2008. However, the economy contracted again in 2011 as the massive 9.0 magnitude
earthquake and subsequent tsunami hit Japans northeast Pacific coastal region on 11 March 2011,
disrupting the manufacturing sector. The USDA reported that the disaster took the lives of over
24,000 people, and damaged about 23,600 hectares of arable land. Estimates of physical and
infrastructural damages to the agriculture, fishery, and forestry sectors have reached $30 billion.
According to the USDA, During this unprecedented crisis, Japans food supply system
demonstrated remarkable resilience and strength in its ability to secure ample, undisrupted supplies
of food for people in the affected regions and feed for livestock animalsattesting to the robustness
of Japans food security system, which relies on both domestic production and the availability of
reliable imports (USDA FAS 2012).

Japans real GDP contracted by 0.8% in 2011 from a growth of 4.5% in 2010, and is estimated to
be relatively flat at 0.2% in 2012. By sector, the economy is composed of 1.2% agriculture, 27.5%
industry, and 71.4% services. The countrys population is 127.25 million, which is declining at
0.08% per year; 61% is under 55 years old. Per capita income stands at $36,200. The labor force
is 65.02 million, 3.9% of which is in agriculture, 26.2% in industry, and 69.8% in services. The local
currency, the yen (JPY or ), had an exchange rate of 79.42 in 2012 and is projected to appreciate
relative to the US dollar over the next decade.
The country harvested 1.58 million hectares of rice in 2011, producing 7.65 million tons of milled
rice at an average yield of 4.85 tons per hectare. The model assumes the country to be an entirely
medium-grain rice market. Total rice production is estimated to decline by 0.94% annually, as the
area harvested contracts by 0.89% and the yield declines marginally. Total rice consumption
declines by 0.76% per year due to the combined effects of contraction in both the population level
(0.20%) and per capita use (0.56%).
Bread consumption has taken dietary share from rice as a main source of carbohydrates as
Japanese tastes have increasingly shifted to more Western diets. As a result of the sharp rise in
US corn prices since the summer of 2012, the ratio of corn used in compound feeds in the country
decreased in favor of nonconventional grains such as rice, wheat, and sorghum (USDA FAS
2012b). The countrys net rice imports remain generally stable at the WTO minimum access level
of 482,000 tons over the projection period (Table A4.2).
4.8 Republic of Korea
Economy
High-tech and industrialized, the economy of the Republic of Korea is the 12th largest in the
world.The country has adopted a number of economic policies and reforms, including the promotion
of importation of raw materials and technology at the expense of consumer goods; the
encouragement of savings and investments over consumption; and greater openness to foreign
investments and imports. However, real GDP growth slowed from 6.3% in 2010 to 3.6% in 2011,
and was estimated to further weaken to 2.0% in 2012, as the country relies heavily on exports that
have contracted in recent years due to the financial crisis. By sector, the economy is composed of
2.7% agriculture, 39.8% industry, and 57.5% services. The population is 48.95 million and growing
at 0.2% per year; 76% is under 55 years old. Per capita income is $32,400. Out of the labor force
of 25.5 million, 6.2% is in agriculture, 23.8% in industry, and 70.0 % in services. The local currency,
the won (KRW or W) has an exchange rate of W1,127 and is projected to appreciate relative to the
US dollar over the baseline period.
The country harvested 854,000 hectares of rice in 2011, producing 4.22 million tons of milled rice
at an average yield of 4.95 tons per hectare. As in the case of Japan, the Republic of Koreas rice
market is assumed to be all medium grain. Total rice production is projected to decline at 0.24%
annually, as the yield growth of 0.47% is not enough to compensate for an annual decline of 0.71%
in area harvested. The government is reportedly encouraging rice farmers to plant other crops due
to bumper rice crops in recent years. Total rice consumption is calculated to decline by 1.03% per
year, from 4.98 million tons in 2011 to 4.44 million tons in 2022, as the slight population growth of
0.12% partially offsets the decline in per capita consumption of 1.15% per year. The countrys
annual rice imports are generally stable based on the preset WTO minimum access level (Table
A4.3).
4.9 India
Economy
India is developing into an open market economy and is projected to have one of the highest real
GDP growth rates in Asia over the next decade. The country has a diverse economy that includes
village farming, modern agriculture, handicrafts, and a wide range of modern industries and
services. By sector, the economy is composed of 17.0% agriculture, 18.0% industry, and 65.0%
services. The population is projected to grow to 1,220,800, increasing at 1.31% annually; nearly
88% is under 55 years old. Per capita income is $3,900. India has a big labor force of 498.4 million,
second only to China, with 53.0% in agriculture, 19.0% in industry, and 28.0% in services. The local
currency, the Indian rupee (INR or Re/Rs), had an exchange rate of Rs53.17 in 2012 and is
projected to appreciate slightly relative to the US dollar over the next decade.
India harvested 44.1 million hectares of rice in 2011, producing 105.3 million tons of milled rice at
an average yield of 2.39 tons per hectare. Total milled rice production grows at 0.84% per year, of
which 0.70% comes from yield growth and 0.14% from a gain in area harvested. Despite strong
government promotion, the area planted to hybrid rice was only about 1.5 million hectares in 2011
2012, mostly in eastern India. There are 26 popular hybrids in the market but several challenges
reportedly remain, such as the inability to cater to the very diverse consumer preferences for rice,
low incremental yields, higher irrigation and chemical input requirements, low milling rates, and the
poor cooking quality of hybrid rice compared to traditional varieties. Total rice consumption is
calculated to grow at 1.22% annually, from 93.3 million tons in 2011 to 106.7 million tons in 2022,
solely due to population growth as per capita use is flat (Table A4.4).
Due to its mounting rice stocks, India officially lifted its ban on non-basmati rice exports on 9
September 2011, putting downward pressure on both the domestic rice prices and international
reference prices. Recently, the country has embarked on an ambitious plan to create a legal
entitlement to subsidized food grains for 63.5% of its population. However, funding and the
implementation logistics of this program remain a big challenge.
4.10 Pakistan
Economy
A combination of internal political conflicts and low levels of foreign investments have led to the
countrys relatively slow economic growth. The economy grew around 3.0% in 20102011 and
3.7% in 2012. The economy is composed of 20.1% agriculture, 25.5% industry, and 54.4%
services. The population is 193.24 million and growing at 1.55% per year; nearly 91% is under 55
years old. Per capita income is $2,900. Out of the labor force of 60.36 million, 45.1% is in
agriculture, 20.7% in industry, and 34.2 % in services. The local currency, the Pakistani rupee (PKR
or PRe/PRs), had an exchange rate of PRs95.1 in 2012 and is projected to depreciate relative to
the US dollar over the next decade.

Pakistan harvested 2.75 million hectares of rice in 2011, producing 6.50 million tons of milled rice
for an average yield of 2.36 tons per hectare. Total milled rice production grows at 1.06% per year,
of which 0.52% comes from yield growth and 0.54% from the expansion in harvested area. The
area planted to basmati rice has reportedly declined by 27% over the last 3 years. Farmers are
gradually shifting from basmati rice to non-basmati hybrid varieties due to better yields and a
shorter growing cycle that allows the earlier planting of wheat. The countrys rice sector has
recovered well from 2 consecutive years of floods. Damaged infrastructure, especially rice mills in
Sindh, have largely been restored. Total rice consumption (2.56 million tons in 2011) grows at
2.44% annually due to a population growth of 1.47% and a gain in per capita use of 0.97% (Table
A4.5).
The country is projected to be a relatively reliable rice exporter over the baseline period, with annual
shipments increasing steadily from 3.44 million tons in 2011 to 3.94 million tons in 2022. Rice trade
in Pakistan was liberalized in the 1990s and rice traders have responded well by taking a leading
role in the rice market. Exporters have made huge investments in rice processing equipment,
installing state-of-the-art imported machinery to improve the quality of rice, thus enhancing the
competitiveness of Pakistans rice in the world market (USDA FAS 2012).
5. Stochastic Analysis
5.1 Baseline Results
In light of the structural characteristics of the global rice economy, this section presents a stochastic
analysis to provide a better understanding of the likely upper and lower bounds for selected
variables. The results of the stochastic analyses for ASEAN regional rice prices and international
rice prices are further illustrated in the charts in Appendix 6. To show the direction and spread of
the stochastic outcome distribution, three outcome items for selected variables are presentedthe
stochastic average, the 10th percentile, and the 90th percentile. Intuitively, the gap between the
two percentiles (10th and 90th) indicates the magnitude of price volatility. Widening indicates
increased price volatility while narrowing indicates decreased price volatility. Another measure of
dispersion of a probability distribution is the coefficient of variation, which is defined as the standard
deviation divided by the mean.
For purposes of brevity, only two representative charts (the long-grain rice international reference
price and the ASEAN rice ending stocks) are discussed in this section, which can then be used as
patterns in explaining the rest of the charts in Appendix 6. The information projected in each of the
charts is similar in principle.
Figure 7 shows the long-grain rice international reference prices. For 2013, while the mean price is
$422 per ton, the stochastic distribution indicates that 10% of the time, the average price will be
higher than $506 per ton and lower than $368 per ton. That is, the gap between the two percentiles
is $138 per ton. This gap varies across the estimation period. The computed coefficient of variation
for 2013 is 0.127.
Figure 7: Long-Grain Rice International Reference Prices (Stochastic Projection)
Figure 8 traces the path of the ASEANs ending stocks of rice. While in 2013, the mean is 21.9
million tons, the stochastic distribution shows that 10% of the time, the average ending stocks will
be higher than 22.5 million tons and lower than 20.2 million tons 10% of the time. Note that the
volatility as indicated by the gap is milder for rice stocks. In this case, the coefficient of variation for
2013 is 0.041.
Figure 8: ASEAN Rice Ending Stocks (Stochastic Projection)
Again, a similar analysis can be made for the rest of the stochastic charts in Appendix 6. The same
principle holds, with the difference lying only with varying units and absolute numbers.
This feature of the stochastic analysis provides an advantage as it indicates how the outcomes are
distributed by providing information on risk and uncertainty, which is an important characteristic of
agricultural commodity enterprises and markets, such as that of rice. Thus, the stochastic analysis
complements the basic information generated by the deterministic analysisi.e., it provides a

better understanding of the dynamics of the global rice market.
5.2 Use of the Baseline for Assessing Self-Sufficiency and Trade Impacts
This AGRM baseline and the stochastic model provide an analytical framework that lends itself to
assessing what level of an increased productivity would be necessary to achieve self-sufficiency.
Figures 9 and 10 depict the baseline yield projection for Indonesia and the Philippines, and the
implied yield gap to achieve self-sufficiency while holding area harvested constant. For Indonesia,
the baseline gap is in the range of 7% to 9%, and for the Philippines, the gap is 17.5% to 19%.
Figure 9: Indonesias Baseline Yield Gap to Achieve Self-Sufficiency
mt = metric ton, ha = hectare.

Figure 10: Philippines Baseline Yield Gap to Achieve Self-Sufficiency
mt = metric ton, ha = hectare.

The stochastic framework of the AGRM also provides a framework to measure the baseline
probability of achieving self-sufficiency, given the historical randomness of rice yields as influenced
by weather and climatic events. Figure 11 indicates that given the baseline conditions based on
historical variability in Indonesias rice yields, self-sufficiency could be achieved with a probability
of 10% by 2016 and a probability of 25% by 2020. For the Philippines, Figure 12 depicts a stochastic
baseline where self-sufficiency is achieved with a probability of 10% by 2015 and a probability of
30% by 2021.
Figure 11: Baseline Probability of Achieving Self-Sufficiency in Indonesia
MT = metric ton.
Figure 12: Baseline Probability of Achieving Self-Sufficiency in the Philippines
MT = metric ton.
Finally, an assessment of the externality effects of achieving self-sufficiency by a major riceimporting country can be made using the model to show impacts for specific rice exporters and
world rice prices. Table 2 shows that achieving self-sufficiency in Indonesia and the Philippines
over the baseline beginning in 2013 would reduce exports from Viet Nam initially by 19% and after
adjustment over time by 7%.
on Baseline Rice Exports from Viet Nam
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Self-sufficiency
5700
6046
6342
6123
6129
6142
6203
6511
6503
6663
Baseline
6998
7108
7190
6944
6901
6925
6966
7022
7009
7154
Change
-1298
-1062
-848
-821
-772
-783
-763
-511
-507
-491
% Change
-19%
-15%
-12%
-12%
-11%
-11%
-11%
-7%
-7%
-7%
As relatively large rice importers, achieving self-sufficiency in the Philippines and Indonesia would
have effects on world prices, lowering the baseline projected price by 18% initially and by 9% by
2022 (Table 3).
on Baseline World Long-Grain Rice Reference Price
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Self-sufficiency
347
328
356
360
355
358
378
368
371
392
Baseline
422
386
401
401
391
393
412
406
410
430
Change
-75
-59
-46
-41
-36
-35
-34
-37
-39
-38
-18%
-15%
-11%
-10%
-9%
-9%
-8%
-9%
-10%
-9%
% Change
6. Conclusion
While the ASEAN and global rice economies are always subject to uncertainties in weather and
policies, abundant supplies and slow growth in consumption have resulted in downward pressure
on prices. Driven by the use of higher-yielding rice varieties and other improved production
technologies, the outlook is expected to follow this trend. The focus on self-sufficiency by major
rice-consuming countries is expected to restrain rice trade and dampen international rice prices
over the next decade.
Domestic price policy supports, coupled with good weather, have resulted in strong rice harvests
in India and Thailand and large stock inventories. Import demand growth in other ASEAN countries
is limited for similar reasons. Much of the projected growth in rice trade is expected to come from
other regions, particularly Africa and the Middle East. Despite the desire for self-sufficiency and a
trend for production to grow faster than demand, the major ASEAN rice importersIndonesia and
the Philippinesare expected to remain important importers. The expected expansion in rice
exports from Cambodia and Myanmar will add to competitive price pressures that will result in lower
international rice prices over time.
Results of stochastic analysis, based on uncertainties associated with production, show that
international long-grain rice reference prices are expected to range from $368 per metric ton to as
high as $506 per metric ton, a gap of $138. Volatility in prices as a result of uncertain weather and
policies therefore remains a persistent food security concern with the ASEAN and global rice
economies.
The baseline is shown to be useful as a framework to assess the yield gaps that exist to achieve
country-level rice self-sufficiency. When simulated in a stochastic framework, the baseline can also
generate probability estimates of achieving self-sufficiency under the baseline assumptions.
Finally, the baseline is shown to be useful in estimating the impacts on world prices and exports
from achieving self-sufficiency in traditionally large rice-importing nations such as Indonesia and
the Philippines. Thus, not only are domestic costs important to consider but the external effects
and broader costs also must be included, particularly with regard to a regional food security strategy
that evaluates the trade-offs of rice trade and self-sufficiency.
References
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). 1980. Joint Press Statement of the Meeting at
Official
Level
between
ASEAN
and
India.
Kuala
Lumpur,
16
May.
http://www.aseansec.org/5733.htm (accessed 25 May 2012).
. 1997. Joint Press Statement on the Inaugural Meeting on the Establishment of ASEAN
Pakistan Sectoral Dialogue Relations. Islamabad, Pakistan, 57 November.
http://www.aseansec.org/5850.htm (accessed 25 May 2012).
Asian Development Bank (ADB). 2012. Asian Development Outlook 2012: Confronting rising
inequality in Asia. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: ADB.
Central Intelligence Agency. 2013.
publications/the-world-factbook/
The World
Fact
Book.
https://www.cia.gov/library/
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI). 2012. U.S. Baseline Briefing Book:
Projections for Agricultural and Biofuel Markets. FAPRI-MU Report No. 01-12. March.
http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/outreach/publications/2012/FAPRI_MU_Report_01_12.pdf
International
Rice
Research
Institute
(IRRI).
2013.
Rice
and
poverty.
http://www.irri.org/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&layout=item&id=9081&lang=en
(accessed 4 April 2013).
Kassim, Y. R. 2011. Singapores Growing Role in Asian Food Security. East Asia Forum. 7
September. http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/09/07/singapore-s-growing-role-in-asian-foodsecurity/ (accessed 4 April 2013).
Oryza. 2013. Philippines Focuses on Hybrid Rice Cultivation; Seed Companies Focus on
Philippines. 8 April. http://oryza.com/content/philippines-focuses-hybrid-rice-cultivation-seedcompanies-focus-philippines (accessed 9 April 2013).
Penh Pal. 2012. Cambodian rice smuggling apparently driven by Thai government subsidy scheme.
1
May.
http://penhpal.com/2012/04/cambodian-rice-smuggling-apparently-driven-by-thaigovernment-subsidy-scheme/ (accessed 5 April 2013).
Richardson, J. W., K. D. Schumann, and P. A. Feldman. 2008. Simulation and Econometrics to
Analyze Risk. College Station, Texas.
The New York Times. 2013. Thailand Set to Sell Off Huge Stockpile of Rice. 28 March.
United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS). 2012a. Attach
Reports. Global Agriculture Information Network Reports, Nos. JA 1007, 15 March 2012.
. 2012b. Attach Reports. Global Agriculture Information Network Reports, Nos. JA 1007,
15 March 2012.
. 2013a. Attach Reports. Global Agriculture Information Network Reports, Nos. KS 1202
and KS 1230.
. 2013b. Attach Report. Global Agriculture Information Network Reports, Nos. ID 1237, 20
November 2012.
. 2013c. Attach Reports on Grain and Feed. Various issues.
Wailes, E. J. 2012. Trade Scenarios in 2012 and Policy Options for Managing Price Volatility.
Presented at the Technical Workshop on Price Volatility and Trade cum Informal Meeting of
AFSRB, ASEC, and ADB. Bangkok, Thailand, 2627 January 2012.
Wailes, E. J., and E. C. Chavez. 2011. 2011 Updated Arkansas Global Rice Model. University of
Arkansas Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Division of Agriculture Staff
Paper 2011-01. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/102650
. 2012. World Rice Outlook with Deterministic and Stochastic Components, 20122021.
University of Arkansas Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Division of
Agriculture Staff Paper 2012-01. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/123203
. 2013a. US Drought Impacts on the US and International Rice Economies. In B. R. Wells
Rice Research Studies 2012, ed. R. J. Norman and K. A. K. Moldenhauer. University of
Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station Research Series.
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Wells Rice Research Studies 2012, ed. R. J. Norman and K. A. K. Moldenhauer. University of
Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station Research Series
Appendix 1 | 29
Rice Models of the Arkansas Global Rice Economics Program

Arkansas Global Rice Model
The Arkansas Global Rice Model (AGRM) is a nonspatial, multicountry statistical simulation, and
econometric analytical framework developed and maintained for 20 years by the University of
Arkansas Global Rice Economics Program in Fayetteville, United States of America. The model is
disaggregated into five world regions: Africa, the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. There are
45 key countries or regions explicitly included in the model, and all other countries not individually
modeled, are included in one of the five rest-of-region models:6
Africa: Cameroon, Cote DIvoire, Egypt, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Liberia, Mali,
Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Tanzania, and Rest-of-Africa
Americas: Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Mexico, United States, Uruguay, and
Rest-of-Americas
Asia: Bangladesh; Brunei Darussalam; Cambodia; Peoples Republic of China; Hong
Kong, China; India; Indonesia; Iran; Iraq; Japan; Republic of Korea; Lao Peoples
Democratic Republic; Malaysia; Myanmar; Pakistan; Philippines; Saudi Arabia; Singapore;
Taipei,China; Thailand; Turkey; Viet Nam; and Rest-of-Asia
Europe: European Union (27 member countries) and Rest-of-Europe
Oceania: Australia and Rest-of-Oceania
The AGRM can be used to generate annual projections of the world rice economy for a 10-year
period and up to 2035. Simulation is conducted for the purpose of the baseline projection, scenarios
on technology, trade, production shocks, consumption shocks, and policy analyses. The model can
be used to generate both deterministic average outcomes and stochastic distribution of outcomes.
The major components of a country or regional model in the AGRM include a supply sector, a
demand sector, trade, stocks, and price linkage equations. As a system of equations, the model
links countries through prices and trade to obtain global and national estimates that add up
consistently using United States Department of Agriculture data. The model makes assumptions
about key macroeconomic variables and links to other crop and livestock models. A key component
is government-determined policy variables that reflect the various mechanisms by which countries
intervene in their rice sector economy.
Computationally, the simulation model solves for the set of farm-level, retail-level, and export
(import) prices that simultaneously balances all markets (long- and medium-grain rice) in a given
year. An international reference price (for long-grain rice) and California No. 2 medium-grain rice
ex-mill price are used to balance the international rice markets, by equating net rice exports and
net rice imports.
Projections include national levels of rice production (area harvested and yields), rice consumption
(per capita use multiplied by given population), net rice trade, rice stocks, and rice prices. The
international rice market is unique because it is differentiated between long- and medium-grain rice
markets and is also heavily distorted by respective government policies on taxes, subsidies, tariffs,
etc. These policies are incorporated in the model's equations for supply, demand, export (or import),
6
The names of some countries or areas in this list have been adjusted in line with the official names under Asian
Development Bank guidelines.
30 | Appendix 1
stocks, and price transmission, and are thus implicitly reflected in the model solution.7
Riceflow Model
Riceflow is a spatial partial equilibrium model of the global rice sector, with detailed specifications
of the basic components of the rice supply chain:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
(vi)
factors of production (land, labor, and capital) and intermediate inputs (fertilizer, pest
control, fuel, etc.);
paddy production, area harvested, and yield per hectare;
rice storage and drying costs and quantities;
rice milling, costs of milling, and degree of milling;
rice wholesale and import/export shipments by country source or destination; and
rice consumption.
The model builds from national or subnational models to generate disaggregated bilateral trade
flow volumes subject to trade policies and import/export fees. It disaggregates rice by type
depending on the availability of data (e.g., long grain, medium grain, fragrant, percent broken, and
the degree of milling [white, brown, and paddy]). By treating sectors and products separately, the
model allows for a detailed disaggregation by production systems, rice types, and household types,
conditional on the existence of reliable data.
Rice production in Riceflow is disaggregated into primary production, primary milling (paddy to
brown), and secondary milling (brown to milled). The model is flexible to specify alternative
production systems. Furthermore, a number of technology-related variables are defined to deal
with technological changes affecting production at any stage. Riceflow also accounts for rice
stocks, and allows the user to specify alternative behaviors regarding stock management, such as
for food security programs and policies at the national, regional or international level.8
The latest Riceflow database corresponds to calendar year 2009, and is disaggregated into 60
regions (including all ASEAN countries), three rice types (long grain, medium grain and short grain,
and fragrant rice), and three milling degrees (paddy, brown, and milled), for a total of nine rice
commodities.
Riceflow has been used extensively to assess different rice market scenarios:
(i) technological changes (e.g., adoption of hybrid rice);
(ii) policy changes (e.g., impact of trade integration in Asia, the Western Hemisphere, or
changes in domestic support policies);
(iii) consumption changes (e.g., impact of changes in population growth and income); and
(iv) weather-related events (e.g., impact of calamities and other weather events).
Furthermore, Riceflow can be used to help in the design of new rice policy and investment. The
models framework can contribute to the design of the program and investment by simulating
alternative scenarios and providing insights into the potential costs and market-related impacts of
the policy and investment. Sensitivity analysis on supply- and demand-related variables are
7
Other details of the AGRM, including the theoretical structure and the general equations, can be found in the online
documentation by Wailes and Chavez (2011) at http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/102650
Other details of the model can be found in the online documentation by Wailes and Durand-Morat (2010) at
http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/92010
Appendix 1 | 31
feasible, and can generate stochastic assessments. Riceflow can complement the Arkansas Global
Rice Model and can be used for forecasting purposes, thus generating baseline projections against
which the medium- and long-term impacts of alternative scenarios can be assessed.
32 | Appendix 2
Aggregate Rice Supply and Utilization Tables for ASEAN Countries
Table A2.1: ASEAN Rice Supply and Utilization

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
46,534
46,541
46,604
46,657
46,657
2.65
2.68
2.71
2.73
2.76
(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested
46,243
46,490
46,430
46,478
46,498
46,512
46,535
(Tons per Hectare)

Yield
2.44
2.47
2.49
2.53
2.56
2.60
2.62
(Thousand Tons)
Production
112,905
114,610
115,786
117,517
119,135
120,727
121,993
123,246
124,646
126,237
127,590
128,806
Beginning Stocks
17,663
19,426
20,027
21,850
23,339
24,731
26,216
27,418
28,456
29,544
30,497
31,231
Domestic Supply
130,568
134,036
135,813
139,366
142,474
145,458
148,209
150,664
153,101
155,781
158,087
160,036
Consumption
100,653
103,052
103,719
104,980
106,185
107,751
108,693
109,710
110,432
111,476
112,654
113,471
Ending Stocks
19,426
20,027
21,850
23,339
24,731
26,216
27,418
28,456
29,544
30,497
31,231
31,940
Domestic Use
120,079
123,079
125,569
128,319
130,916
133,967
136,111
138,166
139,976
141,973
143,884
145,411
Net Trade
10,489
10,957
10,244
11,047
11,557
11,491
12,098
12,498
13,125
13,808
14,202
14,626
25.94
26.75
27.36
27.72
28.15
(Percent)
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
19.30
19.43
21.07
22.23
23.29
24.33
25.23
Appendix 2 | 33
Table A2.2: ASEAN Rice Trade

12-Nov
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
Net Exporters
Cambodia
Myanmar
Thailand
Viet Nam
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
1,238
1,477
1,598
1,602
(Thousand Tons)
795
967
895
883
839
931
1,007
1,078
690
570
533
763
928
1,105
1,242
1,337
1,421
1,501
1,569
1,587
6,345
7,603
8,428
9,377
9,493
9,500
9,751
9,905
10,156
10,395
10,802
11,043
7,617
7,016
6,998
7,108
7,190
6,944
6,901
6,925
6,966
7,022
7,009
7,154
15,447
16,157
16,854
18,132
18,450
18,480
18,901
19,245
19,782
20,396
20,979
21,386
Others
17,079
15,087
16,499
16,362
16,912
17,405
17,268
17,311
17,202
16,893
17,110
17,217
World Net Exports
32,526
31,243
33,353
34,494
35,362
35,885
36,169
36,556
36,984
37,289
38,089
38,603
47.5%
51.7%
50.5%
52.6%
52.2%
51.5%
52.3%
52.6%
53.5%
54.7%
55.1%
55.4%
52
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
1,960
1,775
2,662
2,982
2,935
2,974
2,853
2,812
2,866
2,779
2,836
2,919
Sum: ASEAN Net Exports
ASEAN % World Share

Net Importers
Brunei Darussalam
Indonesia
Lao PDR
13
47
10
19
-9
-51
-101
-147
-196
-243
-295
Malaysia
1,083
1,100
1,234
1,239
1,303
1,326
1,310
1,330
1,342
1,347
1,377
1,388
Philippines
1,500
1,872
2,290
2,422
2,220
2,268
2,257
2,268
2,159
2,218
2,363
2,307
Singapore
350
358
366
372
375
377
381
383
381
384
385
383
4,958
5,200
6,610
7,085
6,893
6,989
6,804
6,747
6,656
6,588
6,776
6,760
Others
27,568
26,044
26,743
27,410
28,469
28,896
29,366
29,809
30,328
30,701
31,312
31,843
World Net Imports
32,526
31,243
33,353
34,494
35,362
35,885
36,169
36,556
36,984
37,289
38,089
38,603
15.2%
16.6%
19.8%
20.5%
19.5%
19.5%
18.8%
18.5%
18.0%
17.7%
17.8%
17.5%
Sum: ASEAN Net Imports
ASEAN % World Share

Prices
(US Dollars per Ton)
International Rice Reference Price
477
407
422
386
401
401
391
393
412
406
410
430
US FOB Gulf Ports
575
584
569
530
515
514
522
515
529
516
512
521
US No. 2 Medium FOB CA
809
778
812
814
820
818
832
849
828
801
801
816
US = United States, FOB = freight on board, CA = California.

34 | Appendix 2
Table A2.3: ASEAN Rice Area Harvested

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
Cambodia
2,767
2,903
2,829
2,802
2,738
2,733
2,740
2,738
2,749
2,790
2,816
2,803
Indonesia
12,160
12,150
12,044
12,055
12,045
12,061
12,055
12,068
12,081
12,096
12,104
12,097
Lao PDR
817
859
863
860
863
866
871
883
895
910
923
937
Malaysia
675
678
685
691
695
699
700
700
701
701
701
701
Myanmar
6,500
6,502
6,639
6,723
6,817
6,863
6,933
6,950
6,954
6,965
6,972
6,977
Philippines
4,579
4,630
4,624
4,621
4,619
4,606
4,600
4,600
4,615
4,623
4,630
4,637
(Thousand Hectares)
Brunei Darussalam
Singapore
Thailand
11,000
10,942
10,967
10,989
10,995
10,997
10,993
10,982
10,971
10,970
10,975
10,977
Viet Nam
7,740
7,821
7,774
7,732
7,720
7,684
7,636
7,609
7,570
7,545
7,532
7,522
46,490
46,430
46,478
46,498
46,512
46,535
46,534
46,541
46,604
46,657
46,657
ASEAN 10 Total
46,243
Others
112,930
112,545
113,653
113,710
113,937
114,401
114,313
114,447
114,467
114,371
114,232
114,064
World Total
159,173
159,036
160,083
160,188
160,435
160,913
160,848
160,981
161,007
160,976
160,888
160,720
29.1%
29.2%
29.0%
29.0%
29.0%
28.9%
28.9%
28.9%
28.9%
29.0%
29.0%
29.0%
ASEAN % World Share
Table A2.4: ASEAN Rice Yield per Hectare

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
Brunei Darussalam
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
Cambodia
1.54
1.58
1.61
1.66
1.71
Indonesia
3.00
3.03
3.08
3.14
3.20
Lao PDR
1.71
1.75
1.77
1.80
Malaysia
2.50
2.51
2.52
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
1.77
1.82
1.87
1.95
2.03
2.09
2.12
3.25
3.28
3.30
3.32
3.35
3.37
3.39
1.83
1.87
1.93
1.98
2.02
2.07
2.11
2.15
2.53
2.56
2.59
2.63
2.66
2.69
2.73
2.75
2.79
(Tons per Hectare)
Myanmar
1.66
1.65
1.68
1.71
1.73
1.76
1.78
1.81
1.84
1.86
1.89
1.92
Philippines
2.34
2.37
2.43
2.48
2.51
2.56
2.61
2.66
2.70
2.75
2.80
2.84
Singapore
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Thailand
1.86
1.88
1.91
1.93
1.94
1.96
1.96
1.97
2.00
2.01
2.03
2.05
Viet Nam
3.50
3.53
3.54
3.57
3.60
3.63
3.66
3.70
3.74
3.77
3.80
3.83
2.44
2.47
2.49
2.53
2.56
2.60
2.62
2.65
2.68
2.71
2.73
2.76
Others
3.14
3.15
3.16
3.20
3.22
3.23
3.24
3.25
3.27
3.29
3.31
3.33
World Average
2.93
2.95
2.97
3.00
3.03
3.04
3.06
3.08
3.10
3.12
3.14
3.16
83.2%
83.5%
84.0%
84.2%
84.6%
85.3%
85.7%
86.1%
86.4%
86.8%
87.0%
87.3%
ASEAN 10 Average
ASEAN % World
Appendix 2 | 35
Table A2.5: ASEAN Rice Production

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
(Thousand Tons)
Brunei Darussalam
Cambodia
4,268
4,589
4,566
4,638
4,674
4,832
4,976
5,123
5,356
5,671
5,877
5,946
Indonesia
36,500
36,837
37,151
37,874
38,505
39,179
39,536
39,882
40,107
40,517
40,783
40,987
Lao PDR
1,395
1,504
1,531
1,545
1,578
1,618
1,681
1,749
1,811
1,880
1,946
2,016
Malaysia
1,690
1,700
1,728
1,750
1,779
1,811
1,837
1,862
1,887
1,912
1,930
1,953
Myanmar
10,816
10,752
11,152
11,471
11,810
12,069
12,375
12,587
12,777
12,979
13,176
13,368
Philippines
10,700
10,990
11,224
11,446
11,602
11,791
12,010
12,215
12,475
12,731
12,962
13,180
Singapore
20,460
20,594
20,930
21,169
21,376
21,546
21,592
21,672
21,943
22,089
22,305
22,543
Thailand
Viet Nam
27,075
27,641
27,504
27,623
27,809
27,880
27,985
28,156
28,286
28,458
28,610
28,811
112,905
114,610
115,786
117,517
119,135
120,727
121,993
123,246
124,646
126,237
127,590
128,806
Others
354,138
354,821
359,700
363,597
366,565
369,156
370,115
372,144
374,170
376,041
378,144
379,602
World Total
467,043
469,431
475,486
481,114
485,700
489,882
492,108
495,391
498,816
502,278
505,734
508,407
24.2%
24.4%
24.4%
24.4%
24.5%
24.6%
24.8%
24.9%
25.0%
25.1%
25.2%
25.3%
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
ASEAN 10 Total
ASEAN % World Share
Table A2.6: ASEAN Rice Consumption

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
53
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
Cambodia
3,450
3,614
3,670
3,753
3,832
3,898
3,966
4,042
4,115
4,190
4,276
4,341
Indonesia
39,550
40,276
40,478
40,794
41,317
42,063
42,338
42,669
42,962
43,291
43,617
43,906
Lao PDR
1,440
1,509
1,539
1,563
1,586
1,608
1,630
1,648
1,664
1,683
1,703
1,720
Malaysia
2,710
2,869
2,901
2,989
3,067
3,126
3,138
3,191
3,220
3,255
3,302
3,334
Myanmar
10,200
10,420
10,486
10,684
10,863
10,992
11,139
11,253
11,363
11,471
11,586
11,697
Philippines
12,850
13,197
13,246
13,640
13,757
14,054
14,267
14,482
14,643
14,955
15,315
15,479
Singapore
350
358
366
372
375
377
381
383
381
384
385
383
Thailand
10,400
10,568
10,588
10,607
10,641
10,684
10,713
10,746
10,777
10,814
10,850
10,877
Viet Nam
19,650
20,193
20,396
20,528
20,696
20,896
21,067
21,242
21,251
21,377
21,562
21,675
113,471
(Thousand Tons)
Brunei Darussalam
100,653
103,052
103,719
104,980
106,185
107,751
108,693
109,710
110,432
111,476
112,654
Others
ASEAN 10 Total
357,595
366,986
369,351
372,148
375,249
377,010
379,291
381,816
385,092
387,357
390,269
392,613
World Total
458,248
470,038
473,070
477,129
481,434
484,761
487,984
491,526
495,525
498,834
502,922
506,084
22.0%
21.9%
21.9%
22.0%
22.1%
22.2%
22.3%
22.3%
22.3%
22.3%
22.4%
22.4%
ASEAN % World Share
36 | Appendix 2
Table A2.7: ASEAN Per Capita Rice Consumption

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
Brunei Darussalam
131.9
119.8
120.8
120.8
121.0
121.1
Cambodia
234.7
241.7
241.3
242.8
243.9
244.3
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
122.5
122.8
122.9
122.8
123.0
122.7
244.8
245.7
246.6
247.6
249.2
249.7
(Kilograms)
Indonesia
160.7
162.0
161.2
160.9
161.4
162.8
162.5
162.4
162.2
162.1
162.1
162.0
Lao PDR
222.3
229.1
229.9
229.7
229.5
229.2
228.7
227.8
226.7
225.9
225.4
224.6
Malaysia
94.3
98.3
97.9
99.4
100.5
101.0
100.0
100.3
99.9
99.7
99.9
99.6
Myanmar
188.9
190.9
190.1
191.7
192.9
193.2
193.9
193.9
194.0
194.0
194.2
194.3
Philippines
126.2
127.2
125.3
126.7
125.5
126.0
125.7
125.4
124.7
125.3
126.3
125.7
Singapore
66.7
66.8
67.0
66.9
66.0
65.1
64.7
63.8
62.4
61.9
61.0
59.7
Thailand
155.9
157.5
157.0
156.5
156.2
156.1
155.9
155.7
155.5
155.5
155.4
155.3
Viet Nam
217.0
220.6
220.5
219.7
219.4
219.4
219.1
218.9
217.1
216.5
216.7
216.1
ASEAN 10 Average
163.7
165.7
164.8
164.9
165.0
165.6
165.3
165.2
164.6
164.6
164.7
164.4
Others
55.8
56.7
56.4
56.2
56.1
55.8
55.5
55.3
55.3
55.0
54.9
54.7
World Average
66.0
66.9
66.6
66.5
66.4
66.1
65.9
65.7
65.6
65.4
65.3
65.1
248.2%
247.5%
247.3%
248.1%
248.6%
250.5%
250.9%
251.4%
251.1%
251.8%
252.4%
252.7%
ASEAN % World
Table A2.8: ASEAN Rice Ending Stocks

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
(Thousand Tons)
Brunei Darussalam
Cambodia
181
189
191
194
197
200
203
205
208
211
214
217
Indonesia
5,085
3,422
2,757
2,819
2,942
3,032
3,084
3,109
3,120
3,125
3,127
3,127
Lao PDR
45
88
89
90
91
92
93
93
94
95
95
96
Malaysia
796
727
787
787
802
813
822
823
832
836
842
849
Myanmar
Philippines
431
193
326
350
369
341
336
333
326
334
355
439
1,809
1,474
1,741
1,970
2,035
2,040
2,040
2,042
2,034
2,028
2,038
2,046
Singapore
Thailand
Viet Nam
ASEAN 10 Total
Others
World Total
ASEAN % World Share
9,330
11,753
13,667
14,852
16,095
17,457
18,584
19,605
20,614
21,494
22,147
22,770
1,749
2,181
2,291
2,278
2,200
2,240
2,257
2,245
2,315
2,374
2,413
2,395
19,426
20,027
21,850
23,339
24,731
26,216
27,418
28,456
29,544
30,497
31,231
31,940
86,674
85,772
86,636
89,355
92,438
96,273
99,417
102,485
104,923
107,627
109,929
111,755
106,100
105,798
108,486
112,694
117,169
122,489
126,835
130,941
134,467
138,124
141,160
143,695
18.3%
18.9%
20.1%
20.7%
21.1%
21.4%
21.6%
21.7%
22.0%
22.1%
22.1%
22.2%
Appendix 3
| 37
ASEAN Rice Supply and Utilization Tables by Country
Table A3.1: Brunei Darussalam Rice Supply and Utilization

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested
(Tons per Hectare)

Yield
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
Production
Beginning Stocks
Consumption
53
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
Ending Stocks
53
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
-52
-48
-49
-50
-51
-52
-53
-54
-55
-56
-57
-58
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
2,738
2,749
2,790
2,816
2,803
1.87
1.95
2.03
2.09
2.12
5,946
(Thousand Tons)
Domestic Supply
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Table A3.2: Cambodia Rice Supply and Utilization

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
2,767
2,903
2,829
2,802
2,738
16/17
17/18
(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested
2,733
2,740
(Tons per Hectare)

Yield
1.54
1.58
1.61
1.66
1.71
1.77
1.82
4,268
4,589
4,566
4,638
4,674
4,832
4,976
5,123
5,356
5,671
5,877
158
181
189
191
194
197
200
203
205
208
211
214
4,426
4,770
4,755
4,830
4,868
5,029
5,176
5,325
5,562
5,879
6,089
6,161
3,450
3,614
3,670
3,753
3,832
3,898
3,966
4,042
4,115
4,190
4,276
4,341
181
189
191
194
197
200
203
205
208
211
214
217
3,631
3,803
3,861
3,947
4,029
4,098
4,169
4,247
4,324
4,402
4,490
4,558
Net Trade
795
967
895
883
839
931
1,007
1,078
1,238
1,477
1,598
1,602
Exports
800
972
900
888
844
936
1,012
1,083
1,243
1,482
1,603
1,607
Imports
(Thousand Tons)
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
38 | Appendix 3
Table A3.3: Indonesia Rice Supply and Utilization

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
12,068
12,081
12,096
12,104
12,097
3.30
3.32
3.35
3.37
3.39
40,987
(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested
12,160
12,150
12,044
12,055
12,045
12,061
12,055
(Tons per Hectare)

Yield
3.00
3.03
3.08
3.14
3.20
3.25
3.28
(Thousand Tons)
Production
36,500
36,837
37,151
37,874
38,505
39,179
39,536
39,882
40,107
40,517
40,783
6,175
5,085
3,422
2,757
2,819
2,942
3,032
3,084
3,109
3,120
3,125
3,127
42,675
41,922
40,573
40,630
41,323
42,121
42,568
42,966
43,216
43,638
43,908
44,114
Consumption
39,550
40,276
40,478
40,794
41,317
42,063
42,338
42,669
42,962
43,291
43,617
43,906
Ending Stocks
5,085
3,422
2,757
2,819
2,942
3,032
3,084
3,109
3,120
3,125
3,127
3,127
Domestic Use
44,635
43,697
43,234
43,613
44,259
45,095
45,421
45,778
46,082
46,416
46,744
47,033
Net Trade
-1,960
-1,775
-2,662
-2,982
-2,935
-2,974
-2,853
-2,812
-2,866
-2,779
-2,836
-2,919
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
883
895
910
923
937
1.98
2.02
2.07
2.11
2.15
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Table A3.4: Lao PDR Rice Supply and Utilization

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
817
859
863
860
863
16/17
17/18
(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested
866
871
(Tons per Hectare)

Yield
1.71
1.75
1.77
1.80
1.83
1.87
1.93
(Thousand Tons)
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
1,395
1,504
1,531
1,545
1,578
1,618
1,681
1,749
1,811
1,880
1,946
2,016
77
45
88
89
90
91
92
93
93
94
95
95
1,472
1,549
1,619
1,634
1,668
1,709
1,773
1,842
1,905
1,974
2,041
2,111
1,440
1,509
1,539
1,563
1,586
1,608
1,630
1,648
1,664
1,683
1,703
1,720
45
88
89
90
91
92
93
93
94
95
95
96
1,485
1,597
1,628
1,653
1,677
1,700
1,723
1,741
1,758
1,777
1,798
1,816
-13
-47
-10
-19
-9
51
101
147
196
243
295
Lao PDR = Lao Peoples Democratic Republic

Appendix 3 | 39
Table A3.5: Malaysia Rice Supply and Utilization

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
700
701
701
701
701
2.66
2.69
2.73
2.75
2.79
1,953
(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested
675
678
685
691
695
699
700
(Tons per Hectare)

Yield
2.50
2.51
2.52
2.53
2.56
2.59
2.63
(Thousand Tons)
Production
1,690
1,700
1,728
1,750
1,779
1,811
1,837
1,862
1,887
1,912
1,930
733
796
727
787
787
802
813
822
823
832
836
842
2,423
2,496
2,455
2,537
2,566
2,613
2,650
2,684
2,711
2,744
2,766
2,795
2,710
2,869
2,901
2,989
3,067
3,126
3,138
3,191
3,220
3,255
3,302
3,334
796
727
787
787
802
813
822
823
832
836
842
849
3,506
3,596
3,688
3,776
3,869
3,939
3,960
4,014
4,053
4,091
4,144
4,183
Net Trade
-1,083
-1,100
-1,234
-1,239
-1,303
-1,326
-1,310
-1,330
-1,342
-1,347
-1,377
-1,388
Exports
Imports
1,085
1,102
1,236
1,241
1,305
1,328
1,312
1,332
1,344
1,349
1,379
1,390
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
6,950
6,954
6,965
6,972
6,977
1.81
1.84
1.86
1.89
1.92
13,368
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Table A3.6: Myanmar Rice Supply and Utilization

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
6,500
6,502
6,639
6,723
6,817
16/17
17/18
(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested
6,863
6,933
(Tons per Hectare)

Yield
1.66
1.65
1.68
1.71
1.73
1.76
1.78
10,816
10,752
11,152
11,471
11,810
12,069
12,375
12,587
12,777
12,979
13,176
505
431
193
326
350
369
341
336
333
326
334
355
11,321
11,183
11,345
11,797
12,160
12,438
12,717
12,923
13,110
13,305
13,509
13,723
10,200
10,420
10,486
10,684
10,863
10,992
11,139
11,253
11,363
11,471
11,586
11,697
431
193
326
350
369
341
336
333
326
334
355
439
10,631
10,613
10,812
11,033
11,232
11,333
11,474
11,586
11,689
11,804
11,941
12,136
690
570
533
763
928
1,105
1,242
1,337
1,421
1,501
1,569
1,587
(Thousand Tons)
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
40 | Appendix 3
Table A3.7: Philippines Rice Supply and Utilization

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
4,600
4,615
4,623
4,630
4,637
2.66
2.70
2.75
2.80
2.84
13,180
(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested
4,579
4,630
4,624
4,621
4,619
4,606
4,600
(Tons per Hectare)

Yield
2.34
2.37
2.43
2.48
2.51
2.56
2.61
(Thousand Tons)
Production
10,700
10,990
11,224
11,446
11,602
11,791
12,010
12,215
12,475
12,731
12,962
2,459
1,809
1,474
1,741
1,970
2,035
2,040
2,040
2,042
2,034
2,028
2,038
13,159
12,799
12,698
13,188
13,572
13,826
14,050
14,255
14,517
14,765
14,990
15,218
Consumption
12,850
13,197
13,246
13,640
13,757
14,054
14,267
14,482
14,643
14,955
15,315
15,479
Ending Stocks
1,809
1,474
1,741
1,970
2,035
2,040
2,040
2,042
2,034
2,028
2,038
2,046
Domestic Use
14,659
14,671
14,987
15,609
15,792
16,094
16,307
16,523
16,676
16,983
17,353
17,525
Net Trade
-1,500
-1,872
-2,290
-2,422
-2,220
-2,268
-2,257
-2,268
-2,159
-2,218
-2,363
-2,307
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Table A3.8: Singapore Rice Supply and Utilization

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
Production
Beginning Stocks
350
358
366
372
350
358
366
-350
-358
-366
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
375
377
381
383
381
384
385
383
372
375
377
381
383
381
384
385
383
-372
-375
-377
-381
-383
-381
-384
-385
-383
(Thousand Tons)
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Appendix 3 | 41
Table A3.9: Thailand Rice Supply and Utilization

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
10,982
10,971
10,970
10,975
10,977
1.97
2.00
2.01
2.03
2.05
(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested
11,000
10,942
10,967
10,989
10,995
10,997
10,993
(Tons per Hectare)

Yield
1.86
1.88
1.91
1.93
1.94
1.96
1.96
(Thousand Tons)
Production
20,460
20,594
20,930
21,169
21,376
21,546
21,592
21,672
21,943
22,089
22,305
22,543
5,615
9,330
11,753
13,667
14,852
16,095
17,457
18,584
19,605
20,614
21,494
22,147
26,075
29,924
32,683
34,836
36,228
37,641
39,048
40,256
41,548
42,703
43,800
44,690
Consumption
10,400
10,568
10,588
10,607
10,641
10,684
10,713
10,746
10,777
10,814
10,850
10,877
Ending Stocks
9,330
11,753
13,667
14,852
16,095
17,457
18,584
19,605
20,614
21,494
22,147
22,770
19,730
22,321
24,255
25,459
26,735
28,141
29,297
30,350
31,392
32,308
32,997
33,647
Net Trade
6,345
7,603
8,428
9,377
9,493
9,500
9,751
9,905
10,156
10,395
10,802
11,043
Exports
6,945
7,970
8,817
9,829
9,895
9,915
10,174
10,318
10,573
10,813
11,218
11,460
Imports
600
367
389
452
402
414
423
413
417
418
416
417
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
7,609
7,570
7,545
7,532
7,522
3.70
3.74
3.77
3.80
3.83
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Domestic Use
Table A3.10: Viet Nam Rice Supply and Utilization

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
7,740
7,821
7,774
7,732
7,720
16/17
17/18
(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested
7,684
7,636
(Tons per Hectare)

Yield
3.50
3.53
3.54
3.57
3.60
3.63
3.66
(Thousand Tons)
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
27,075
27,641
27,504
27,623
27,809
27,880
27,985
28,156
28,286
28,458
28,610
28,811
1,941
1,749
2,181
2,291
2,278
2,200
2,240
2,257
2,245
2,315
2,374
2,413
29,016
29,390
29,685
29,914
30,087
30,081
30,225
30,413
30,532
30,773
30,984
31,224
19,650
20,193
20,396
20,528
20,696
20,896
21,067
21,242
21,251
21,377
21,562
21,675
1,749
2,181
2,291
2,278
2,200
2,240
2,257
2,245
2,315
2,374
2,413
2,395
21,399
22,374
22,687
22,806
22,896
23,137
23,324
23,487
23,566
23,751
23,974
24,070
Net Trade
7,617
7,016
6,998
7,108
7,190
6,944
6,901
6,925
6,966
7,022
7,009
7,154
Exports
7,717
7,116
7,098
7,208
7,290
7,044
7,001
7,025
7,066
7,122
7,109
7,254
Imports
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Domestic Use
42 | Appendix 4
Other Non-ASEAN Country Rice Supply and Utilization Tables

from 20112012 to 20222023
Table A4.1: Peoples Republic of China Rice Supply and Utilization

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
30,057
30,300
29,999
29,703
29,408
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
28,598
28,351
28,048
27,744
27,441
4.91
4.94
4.97
5.00
5.03
(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested
29,100
28,803
(Tons per Hectare)

Yield
4.68
4.72
4.75
4.78
4.81
4.84
4.87
140,700
143,000
142,430
141,986
141,506
140,851
140,332
140,279
139,994
139,315
138,644
138,030
42,574
45,023
46,710
47,949
49,783
51,372
53,623
56,229
59,269
61,682
64,213
66,233
183,274
188,023
189,140
189,935
191,289
192,223
193,955
196,508
199,263
200,998
202,857
204,263
Consumption
139,600
143,232
142,208
141,152
140,810
139,506
138,612
138,129
138,443
137,653
137,544
136,944
Ending Stocks
45,023
46,710
47,949
49,783
51,372
53,623
56,229
59,269
61,682
64,213
66,233
68,184
184,623
189,942
190,157
190,934
192,182
193,129
194,840
197,398
200,125
201,865
203,777
205,128
Net Trade
-1,349
-1,919
-1,018
-999
-894
-907
-885
-890
-862
-868
-921
-865
Exports
441
499
655
707
726
725
764
770
810
816
775
792
Imports
1,790
2,418
1,673
1,706
1,619
1,632
1,649
1,661
1,672
1,684
1,696
1,657
(Thousand Tons)
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Domestic Use
Appendix 4 | 43
Table A4.2: Japan Rice Supply and Utilization

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
1,576
1,581
1,534
1,507
1,497
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
1,466
1,440
1,435
1,429
1,429
4.88
4.86
4.83
4.82
4.82
(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested
1,484
1,478
(Tons per Hectare)

Yield
4.85
4.88
4.86
4.87
4.88
4.88
4.88
Production
7,646
7,711
7,451
7,342
7,304
7,241
7,212
7,148
6,993
6,937
6,891
6,888
Beginning Stocks
2,712
2,743
2,774
2,659
2,594
2,516
2,406
2,297
2,229
2,089
2,048
1,984
10,358
10,454
10,225
10,001
9,898
9,757
9,618
9,446
9,222
9,026
8,939
8,872
Consumption
8,050
8,180
8,048
7,889
7,864
7,832
7,803
7,699
7,615
7,460
7,437
7,406
Ending Stocks
2,743
2,774
2,659
2,594
2,516
2,406
2,297
2,229
2,089
2,048
1,984
1,948
10,793
10,954
10,707
10,483
10,380
10,239
10,100
9,928
9,704
9,508
9,421
9,354
Net Trade
-435
-500
-482
-482
-482
-482
-482
-482
-482
-482
-482
-482
Exports
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
Imports
635
700
682
682
682
682
682
682
682
682
682
682
(Thousand Tons)
Domestic Supply
Domestic Use
Table A4.3: Republic of Korea Rice Supply and Utilization

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
816
811
804
796
790
5.17
5.18
5.19
5.20
5.21
(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested
854
849
844
849
843
837
826
(Tons per Hectare)

Yield
4.95
4.96
5.10
5.12
5.13
5.15
5.16
(Thousand Tons)
Production
4,224
4,208
4,309
4,351
4,327
4,312
4,261
4,219
4,198
4,175
4,138
4,112
Beginning Stocks
1,034
658
594
535
645
780
905
981
1,073
1,156
1,251
1,349
5,258
4,866
4,904
4,886
4,972
5,092
5,166
5,200
5,270
5,331
5,389
5,460
4,977
4,872
4,769
4,649
4,601
4,595
4,594
4,536
4,523
4,489
4,449
4,441
658
594
535
645
780
905
981
1,073
1,156
1,251
1,349
1,428
5,635
5,467
5,304
5,294
5,381
5,500
5,575
5,609
5,679
5,739
5,797
5,869
Net Trade
-377
-601
-400
-409
-409
-409
-409
-409
-409
-409
-409
-409
Exports
Imports
380
601
400
409
409
409
409
409
409
409
409
409
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
44 | Appendix 4
Table A4.4: India Rice Supply and Utilization

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
44,100
43,000
43,944
43,982
44,231
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
44,804
44,840
44,784
44,773
44,792
2.49
2.51
2.53
2.56
2.58
115,415
(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested
44,775
44,732
(Tons per Hectare)

Yield
2.39
2.35
2.39
2.43
2.46
2.47
2.48
105,310
101,029
104,952
106,905
108,877
110,808
110,831
111,404
112,421
113,296
114,670
23,500
25,100
22,927
23,257
24,325
25,633
26,987
27,160
26,926
26,716
26,574
26,662
128,810
126,129
127,879
130,162
133,201
136,441
137,818
138,564
139,347
140,012
141,244
142,077
Consumption
93,334
95,062
96,350
97,584
98,809
100,023
101,203
102,340
103,442
104,562
105,581
106,664
Ending Stocks
25,100
22,927
23,257
24,325
25,633
26,987
27,160
26,926
26,716
26,574
26,662
26,369
118,434
117,989
119,607
121,909
124,442
127,011
128,363
129,266
130,158
131,136
132,243
133,033
10,376
8,141
8,272
8,253
8,759
9,431
9,455
9,298
9,189
8,876
9,000
9,043
(Thousand Tons)
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Table A4.5: Pakistan Rice Supply and Utilization

11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
2,750
2,700
2,616
2,651
2,755
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
2,806
2,846
2,869
2,903
2,918
2.47
2.48
2.49
2.49
2.50
6,936
7,065
7,139
7,233
7,301
(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested
2,750
2,770
(Tons per Hectare)

Yield
2.36
2.43
2.44
2.45
2.45
2.46
2.47
(Thousand Tons)
Production
Beginning Stocks
6,500
6,562
6,380
6,490
6,751
6,757
6,836
500
1,000
1,387
1,162
978
882
722
697
638
774
868
878
7,000
7,562
7,767
7,652
7,728
7,639
7,557
7,633
7,704
7,913
8,101
8,179
Consumption
2,560
2,651
2,760
2,840
2,944
3,001
3,064
3,098
3,137
3,205
3,288
3,336
Ending Stocks
1,000
1,387
1,162
978
882
722
697
638
774
868
878
903
3,560
4,038
3,922
3,818
3,826
3,723
3,761
3,736
3,911
4,073
4,166
4,239
Net Trade
3,440
3,524
3,845
3,834
3,902
3,916
3,797
3,897
3,793
3,840
3,935
3,940
Exports
3,500
3,524
3,845
3,834
3,902
3,916
3,797
3,897
3,793
3,840
3,935
3,940
Imports
60
Domestic Supply
Domestic Use
Appendix 5
| 45
World Net Rice Trade, Per Capita Use, and Average Yield Tables by Country
Table A5.1: World Net Rice Trade by Selected Countries and Prices
11/12
Net Exporters
Argentina
Australia
Cambodia
Egypt
India
Myanmar
Pakistan
Thailand
United States
Uruguay
Viet Nam
Total Net Exports*
Net Importers
Bangladesh
Brazil
Brunei Darussalam
Cameroon
Canada
Hong Kong, China
Colombia
Cote d'Ivoire
European Union27
Ghana
Guinea
Indonesia
Iran
Iraq
Japan
Kenya
Republic of Korea
Lao PDR
Liberia
Malaysia
Mali
Mexico
Mozambique
Nigeria
Philippines
Saudi Arabia
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Singapore
South Africa
Taipei,China
Tanzania
Turkey
Other Africa
Other Americas
Other Asia
Other Europe
Other Oceania
Residual
Total Net Imports
Prices
International Rice Reference Price
U.S. FOB Gulf Ports
U.S. No. 2 Medium FOB CA
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
670
320
795
-1,349
265
10,376
690
3,440
6,345
2,607
750
7,617
32,526
625
442
967
-1,919
776
8,141
570
3,524
7,603
2,644
854
7,016
31,243
636
414
895
-1,018
696
8,272
533
3,845
8,428
2,676
978
6,998
33,353
623
373
883
-999
711
8,253
763
3,834
9,377
2,586
981
7,108
34,494
646
362
839
-894
604
8,759
928
3,902
9,493
2,566
968
7,190
35,362
563
-250
52
375
351
415
155
1,373
1,083
610
260
1,960
1,750
1,240
435
430
377
13
220
1,083
150
644
375
3,200
1,500
1,130
1,190
210
350
912
140
100
226
3,594
1,615
2,441
816
244
1,193
32,526
254
240
48
424
359
427
160
1,059
1,126
680
295
1,775
1,838
1,410
500
433
601
47
251
1,100
132
718
442
2,640
1,872
1,208
976
140
358
977
128
166
186
3,633
2,289
2,351
-5
306
-299
31,243
915
168
49
437
374
437
189
1,107
1,176
694
378
2,662
1,937
1,383
482
414
400
10
253
1,234
134
776
464
2,541
2,290
1,211
949
151
366
1,034
128
89
275
3,658
1,839
2,394
324
301
-271
33,353
522
256
50
454
394
443
204
1,072
1,176
716
406
2,982
1,959
1,383
482
458
409
19
273
1,239
89
791
486
2,614
2,422
1,237
1,004
152
372
947
128
93
280
3,948
1,880
2,796
282
299
-224
34,494
798
229
51
487
426
443
199
1,126
1,151
735
411
2,935
2,021
1,411
482
442
409
9
280
1,303
51
792
511
2,703
2,220
1,260
1,053
167
375
951
128
99
287
4,138
1,929
2,996
264
297
-209
35,362
477
575
809
407
584
778
422
569
812
386
530
814
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
(Thousand Tons)
646
653
357
379
931
1,007
-907
-885
571
573
9,431
9,455
1,105
1,242
3,916
3,797
9,500
9,751
2,419
2,328
973
970
6,944
6,901
35,885
36,169
16/17
669
398
1,078
-890
575
9,298
1,337
3,897
9,905
2,371
994
6,925
36,556
693
393
1,238
-862
609
9,189
1,421
3,793
10,156
2,379
1,009
6,966
36,984
696
377
1,477
-868
603
8,876
1,501
3,840
10,395
2,330
1,036
7,022
37,289
702
394
1,598
-921
611
9,000
1,569
3,935
10,802
2,341
1,048
7,009
38,089
715
384
1,602
-865
624
9,043
1,587
3,940
11,043
2,329
1,047
7,154
38,603
1,057
-125
54
525
467
452
165
1,229
1,100
783
371
2,812
2,150
1,537
482
453
409
-101
276
1,330
-76
807
552
2,889
2,268
1,359
1,163
174
383
975
128
39
306
4,434
1,973
3,406
297
295
-242
36,556
1,275
-272
55
532
472
451
163
1,280
1,078
841
393
2,866
2,180
1,577
482
486
409
-147
286
1,342
-95
836
570
2,943
2,159
1,386
1,196
189
381
991
128
35
311
4,437
1,905
3,517
285
296
-235
36,984
1,320
-327
56
556
482
453
160
1,325
1,055
860
421
2,779
2,201
1,615
482
515
409
-196
299
1,347
-119
863
581
3,018
2,218
1,408
1,228
202
384
1,016
128
46
315
4,392
1,883
3,542
289
297
-213
37,289
1,352
-379
57
555
488
453
166
1,379
1,021
880
449
2,836
2,231
1,663
482
548
409
-243
307
1,377
-102
877
612
3,086
2,363
1,422
1,265
215
385
1,037
128
46
331
4,516
1,807
3,710
285
298
-224
38,089
1,581
-306
58
567
496
454
167
1,422
986
902
471
2,919
2,247
1,691
482
544
409
-295
313
1,388
-129
883
626
3,144
2,307
1,439
1,300
224
383
1,043
128
20
334
4,597
1,695
3,741
284
299
-211
38,603
393
515
849
412
529
828
406
516
801
410
512
801
430
521
816
916
1,077
26
-83
52
53
498
518
440
454
446
450
185
173
1,147
1,161
1,147
1,125
753
771
394
372
2,974
2,853
2,070
2,105
1,437
1,476
482
482
469
444
409
409
-9
-51
276
276
1,326
1,310
31
-62
791
795
507
540
2,787
2,832
2,268
2,257
1,293
1,328
1,081
1,115
168
164
377
381
955
945
128
128
43
21
295
302
4,275
4,398
1,941
1,962
3,145
3,323
265
291
296
295
-199
-221
35,885
36,169
(US Dollars per Ton)
401
401
391
515
514
522
820
818
832
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
46 | Appendix 5
Table A5.2: Per Capita Rice Consumption, World and Selected Countries
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
(Kilograms)
Argentina
8.9
8.8
8.8
8.8
8.8
8.8
8.9
9.1
9.1
9.1
9.2
9.3
Australia
14.9
15.9
15.9
16.8
17.6
17.9
17.5
17.8
18.3
18.6
18.5
18.5
216.3
214.2
214.8
214.9
214.9
213.8
213.4
212.8
212.2
211.5
210.7
210.9
39.6
39.5
39.9
40.8
41.3
41.4
41.7
42.0
41.8
41.9
41.9
41.9
Brunei Darussalam
131.9
119.8
120.8
120.8
121.0
121.1
122.5
122.8
122.9
122.8
123.0
122.7
Cambodia
234.7
241.7
241.3
242.8
243.9
244.3
244.8
245.7
246.6
247.6
249.2
249.7
Cameroon
22.3
23.3
24.5
25.1
26.1
26.1
26.5
26.4
26.3
26.9
26.4
26.5
Canada
10.3
10.5
10.8
11.3
12.1
12.4
12.8
13.0
13.1
13.2
13.3
13.4
95.8
98.0
96.8
95.6
95.0
93.7
92.7
92.0
92.0
91.2
91.0
90.4
Colombia
35.8
35.4
37.9
38.6
39.0
38.9
38.4
38.3
38.6
38.9
39.0
39.0
Cote d'Ivoire
71.1
73.2
72.9
71.8
70.9
69.8
69.1
69.6
70.0
70.7
71.3
71.5
Egypt
44.1
46.7
47.3
48.0
47.3
46.6
46.4
46.0
46.1
46.0
45.9
45.7
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.7
6.7
6.7
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.9
7.0
Ghana
36.3
38.5
38.6
38.6
38.6
38.7
38.7
38.6
39.8
39.9
39.9
39.9
Guinea
Bangladesh
Brazil
European Union27
128.0
131.2
136.1
137.7
137.9
136.0
133.3
133.1
134.5
136.0
137.1
137.2
Hong Kong, China
58.3
59.6
60.9
61.4
61.2
61.4
61.8
61.9
61.7
61.8
61.7
61.8
India
78.5
78.9
78.9
78.9
78.9
79.0
78.9
78.9
78.9
78.8
78.8
78.7
160.7
162.0
161.2
160.9
161.4
162.8
162.5
162.4
162.2
162.1
162.1
162.0
Iran
42.4
43.0
43.9
44.1
44.6
44.8
44.9
45.1
45.2
45.2
45.3
45.3
Iraq
45.2
45.4
45.3
45.4
45.8
45.7
46.1
46.9
47.2
47.6
48.0
47.8
Japan
63.2
64.2
63.2
62.1
62.0
61.8
61.7
61.0
60.5
59.4
59.4
59.4
Kenya
10.7
11.8
11.1
11.7
11.3
11.6
11.1
11.1
11.5
12.0
12.5
12.4
Republic of Korea
102.1
99.7
97.4
94.8
93.7
93.4
93.3
92.0
91.7
90.9
90.1
89.9
Lao PDR
222.3
229.1
229.9
229.7
229.5
229.2
228.7
227.8
226.7
225.9
225.4
224.6
Liberia
114.5
Indonesia
108.0
109.6
111.8
114.7
114.6
112.2
110.8
109.7
111.0
112.8
113.8
Malaysia
94.3
98.3
97.9
99.4
100.5
101.0
100.0
100.3
99.9
99.7
99.9
99.6
Mali
94.5
103.2
103.0
104.3
104.2
104.2
101.8
101.8
102.1
102.1
103.3
103.2
Mexico
Mozambique
Myanmar
7.3
7.4
7.7
8.0
8.1
8.1
8.1
8.2
8.4
8.5
8.5
8.5
24.0
25.8
26.8
27.6
28.1
27.4
28.1
28.0
28.1
27.9
28.4
28.3
188.9
190.9
190.1
191.7
192.9
193.2
193.9
193.9
194.0
194.0
194.2
194.3
Nigeria
31.4
33.1
32.3
32.4
32.4
32.5
32.4
32.5
32.5
32.6
32.6
32.6
Pakistan
13.7
13.9
14.3
14.5
14.8
14.9
15.0
14.9
14.9
15.0
15.2
15.2
126.2
127.2
125.3
126.7
125.5
126.0
125.7
125.4
124.7
125.3
126.3
125.7
Philippines
Saudi Arabia
44.0
44.4
44.9
45.1
45.3
45.8
46.4
46.8
47.0
47.1
47.0
46.9
Senegal
102.8
104.1
103.5
104.3
104.8
105.3
105.7
106.1
106.3
106.6
107.0
107.2
Sierra Leone
178.2
149.7
153.3
151.8
152.6
151.2
149.2
149.4
150.5
151.3
152.0
152.0
Singapore
66.7
66.8
67.0
66.9
66.0
65.1
64.7
63.8
62.4
61.9
61.0
59.7
South Africa
18.0
20.3
20.3
19.7
19.7
19.7
19.6
20.0
20.4
20.8
21.3
21.4
Taipei,China
55.2
55.9
54.5
53.7
53.1
52.2
51.5
50.9
50.7
50.5
50.3
50.0
Tanzania
23.9
24.4
25.0
25.6
26.1
25.6
25.4
25.9
26.0
26.2
26.2
25.8
Thailand
155.9
157.5
157.0
156.5
156.2
156.1
155.9
155.7
155.5
155.5
155.4
155.3
Turkey
United States
9.5
9.6
9.7
9.7
9.7
9.7
9.7
9.8
9.8
9.8
9.9
9.9
11.1
12.7
12.8
13.2
13.5
13.7
13.7
13.9
14.0
14.1
14.3
14.4
Uruguay
19.6
21.7
21.9
21.7
21.6
21.3
21.0
20.8
20.8
20.8
20.7
20.4
Viet Nam
217.0
220.6
220.5
219.7
219.4
219.4
219.1
218.9
217.1
216.5
216.7
216.1
Rest of World
21.5
22.2
22.2
22.5
22.5
22.6
22.8
22.7
22.7
22.7
22.6
37.9
World
66.0
66.9
66.6
66.5
66.4
66.1
65.9
65.7
65.6
65.4
65.3
65.1
Appendix 5 | 47
Table A5.3: Rice Yield per Hectare, World and Selected Countries
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
(Tons per Hectare)

Argentina
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
Australia
6.3
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
6.9
7.0
7.1
7.1
7.2
7.2
7.2
Bangladesh
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.2
Brazil
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
Brunei Darussalam
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Cambodia
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.1
Cameroon
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
Canada
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.9
4.9
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
Egypt
6.1
6.3
6.5
6.7
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.9
6.9
7.0
7.1
European Union27
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.9
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.2
Ghana
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
Guinea
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
Hong Kong, China
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
India
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
Indonesia
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
Iran
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
Iraq
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
Cote d'Ivoire
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
Japan
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
Kenya
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.4
Republic of Korea
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
Lao PDR
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.2
Malaysia
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
Mali
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.8
Mexico
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.7
Mozambique
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
Myanmar
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
Nigeria
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
Pakistan
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
Philippines
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.8
Saudi Arabia
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Senegal
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
Sierra Leone
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
Singapore
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
South Africa
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Taipei,China
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.2
Tanzania
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
Thailand
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
Turkey
4.8
4.8
4.9
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.4
United States
5.5
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
Uruguay
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.8
5.9
5.9
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.1
6.2
Viet Nam
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.8
Rest of World
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.5
World
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.2
48 | Appendix 6
Results of Stochastic Analyses for ASEAN Regional

Rice Supply and Utilization and International Rice Prices
Figure A6.1: Medium-Grain Rice Prices, FOB California (Stochastic Projection)
FOB = freight on board.

Figure A6.2: World Net Rice Trade (Stochastic Projection)
Appendix 6 | 49
Figure A6.3: ASEAN Total Rice Area Harvested (Stochastic Projection)
Figure A6.4: ASEAN Total Rice Production (Stochastic Projection)
50 | Appendix 6
Figure A6.5: ASEAN Total Rice Consumption (Stochastic Projection)
Figure A6.6: ASEAN Net Rice Exports (Stochastic Projection)
Appendix 6 | 51
Figure A6.7: ASEAN Net Rice Imports (Stochastic Projection)
Figure A6.8: ASEAN Rice Stocks-to-Use Ratio (Stochastic Projection)
Ratio
0.3
0.26
0.22
0.18
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
10th Percentile
Mean
90th Percentile

ASEAN and Global Rice Situation and Outlook, 2011-2022

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ASEAN and Global Rice Situation

and Outlook, 20112022

The lead author, Eric J. Wailes, is

4.3 Key Global Policy Assumptions ......................................................................................16

Table A2.7: ASEAN Per Capita Rice Consumption ..................................................................... 36

Asian Development Bank

Unless otherwise noted, $ refers to US dollars.

2 | Second ASEAN Rice Trade Forum 2013

ASEAN and Global Rice Situation and Outlook, 20112022 | 3

a continuation of existing rice sector policies;

4 | Second ASEAN Rice Trade Forum 2013

2. ASEAN Rice Outlook3

ASEAN and Global Rice Situation and Outlook, 20112022 | 5

Source: Wailes and Chavez.

6 | Second ASEAN Rice Trade Forum 2013

Lao PDR = Lao People's Democratic Republic.

ASEAN and Global Rice Situation and Outlook, 20112022 | 7

2.4 Rice Imports

3. ASEAN Country Rice Outlook5

8 | Second ASEAN Rice Trade Forum 2013

ASEAN and Global Rice Situation and Outlook, 20112022 | 9

10 | Second ASEAN Rice Trade Forum 2013

ASEAN and Global Rice Situation and Outlook, 20112022 | 11

12 | Second ASEAN Rice Trade Forum 2013

ASEAN and Global Rice Situation and Outlook, 20112022 | 13

14 | Second ASEAN Rice Trade Forum 2013

4. Global Rice Outlook

ASEAN and Global Rice Situation and Outlook, 20112022 | 15

LG = long-grain (rice), MG = medium-grain (rice), FOB = freight on board, CA = California.

4.2 Global Rice Supply and Demand

16 | Second ASEAN Rice Trade Forum 2013

Table 1: World Rice Supply and Utilization, 20112022

(Tons per Hectare)

Source: Wailes and Chavez.

Figure 5: World Rice Area Harvested, Yield, Supply and Utilization

Source: Wailes and Chavez.

4.3 Key Global Policy Assumptions

ASEAN and Global Rice Situation and Outlook, 20112022 | 17

Source: Wailes and Chavez.

18 | Second ASEAN Rice Trade Forum 2013

ASEAN and Global Rice Situation and Outlook, 20112022 | 19

reliable imports (USDA FAS 2012).

20 | Second ASEAN Rice Trade Forum 2013

ASEAN and Global Rice Situation and Outlook, 20112022 | 21

Rice Supply and Demand

22 | Second ASEAN Rice Trade Forum 2013

Figure 7: Long-Grain Rice International Reference Prices (Stochastic Projection)

Source: Wailes and Chavez.

Source: Wailes and Chavez.

ASEAN and Global Rice Situation and Outlook, 20112022 | 23

complements the basic information generated by the deterministic analysisi.e., it provides a

mt = metric ton, ha = hectare.

Figure 10: Philippines Baseline Yield Gap to Achieve Self-Sufficiency

mt = metric ton, ha = hectare.

24 | Second ASEAN Rice Trade Forum 2013

Figure 12: Baseline Probability of Achieving Self-Sufficiency in the Philippines

ASEAN and Global Rice Situation and Outlook, 20112022 | 25

Source: Wailes and Chavez.

Source: Wailes and Chavez.

26 | Second ASEAN Rice Trade Forum 2013

ASEAN and Global Rice Situation and Outlook, 20112022 | 27

28 | Second ASEAN Rice Trade Forum 2013

Rice Models of the Arkansas Global Rice Economics Program