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The International Active EAFE Strategy outperformed the MSCI EAFE index by 1.8 percentage points in the second quarter; the strategy gained 0.8% net of fees and the benchmark fell 1.0%. Country and stock selection were both positive. The strategy lagged its benchmark by 0.4 percentage points for the first half of 2013, returning +3.7%.
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After the rush of Abenomics and the past quarters turbulence in Japan we decided to add a page to the quarterly with two goals: 1) to describe our positioning in Japan in the face of recent volatility; and 2) to explain what we believe to be the source of the volatility. Our overweight position in Japan was initiated well before the creation of the term Abenomics, and was based solely upon investing in good companies trading on excessively low valuations. We remain relieved that we do not need to own the market but can focus on pockets of cheapness, selecting companies with a margin of safety to insulate ourselves against risk. The companies in our portfolio are still on reasonable valuations, and while they will see better margins if the yen continues to weaken, they should still make money if yen strength returns. While Abe has altered expectations for the Japanese market, we have not changed our stock selection process. Despite short-term rates pegged at near zero for 18 years, grinding deflation left Japan with stubbornly high real rates and was one of many factors in a rising yen and deteriorating corporate earnings. Prior to the jump-start of Abenomics, the Japanese stock market was on historically low valuations and the province of lonely foreign value managers. However, the prospect of negative real rates under new central banker Haruhiko Kuroda brought in hedge funds in force. They could borrow in yen at low rates, buy cheap stocks, short the currency, and watch the magic of a falling yen push up equity prices. Retail investors spotted the cycle and joined the action. The quiet Japanese market suddenly became popular. Meanwhile, the domestic institutional investor, perhaps because of the failure of Japans quantitative easing (QE) in the early 2000s or the belief that an escape from deflation would be difficult, stayed long the bond market. On the surface, everything looked to be moving according to plan; stock and bond prices were rising together. Underneath however, the bond market was actually skeptical of Abenomics while the equity market was becoming increasingly ebullient. The extraordinary move in the Japanese stock market created some unprecedented dislocations resulting in increased fragility. When it fell in mid-May, there
* Data is that of a representative account from within the Composite.
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reform program before we will know if this market is on a more sustainable path. That said, the Japanese market has been one that offers up a plethora of stock picking opportunities despite the economic scenario.
Stock Selection
Stock selection beat the benchmark by 0.7 percentage points in the second quarter. Holdings in Continental Europe and Japan outperformed. Stock selection in the emerging markets was negative.* The austerity packages in Europe have had a destructive effect on the economic growth. Governments are trying to undo all of their mistakes of the last 15 years with a few years of austerity. However, as we look carefully at the underlying companies, we can see that most have taken it upon themselves to improve profitability. Cost cutting by corporates across Europe is real, with an almost immediate effect on margins. We believe margins for European companies, for the most part, have bottomed; although sales continue to fall they do so at a slower pace. From Milan to Amsterdam corporate restructuring has become the norm; mostly in the form of closing old unproductive assets or asset sales. The most remarkable aspect is that it is happening at almost every company. ING, the Dutch insurer and bank, is completely revamping its corporate DNA by selling the insurance businesses globally. What will be left is a Dutch retail bank with much better margins, a change that has been very well received by investors. Mediaset, the Italian and Spanish free to air TV operator is on its second restructuring program in three years. Despite a massive collapse in ad revenue they are generating solid free cash flow and using it to pay back debt. Advertising revenue in July is expected to be up 3%, giving the stock a substantial boost over the last few weeks. July is typically an insignificant month, only accounting for 5% of annual ad revenue, but the promise of more was all the market needed to re-rate the company considerably. This small and arguably immaterial positive bit of news proves that investors are starved for growth in Europe. The economic slowdown in Europe has taken its toll on growth for many corporates, but they are fighting their way back to health. Japanese outperformance was largely a function to two factors, strong market reaction to expectations for
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June 30, 2013
MSCI EAFE Sector Performance Second Quarter YTD 2013
5.6% -4.6% -3.3% -1.3% 0.7% -1.7% 1.1% -8.7% 5.0% 3.9% 13.4% 5.9% -4.9% 4.0% 12.8% 3.8% 6.5% -13.1% 11.3% 2.4%
Sector
Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
(weighted median)
(weighted median)
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25.8% 4.2% 9.7% 12.3% 5.8% 0.0% 4.7% 2.2% 0.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 5.0% 3.0% 10.3% 1.7% 1.5% 1.4% -0.4% -0.7% -0.4% -1.8% -1.9% 1.2% -2.0% -4.2% -4.8% -5.0% -5.6% -4.3% -4.7% -1.4% -2.5% -4.2% -11.1% -2.8% -2.0%
Country Japan Netherlands Germany France Italy Finland Switzerland Spain Portugal MSCI EAFE United Kingdom Austria Ireland Denmark Belgium Israel Hong Kong Norway Sweden Singapore Greece New Zealand Australia Emerging Markets Cash
2013 Q2 MSCI EAFE Currency Return -6.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% -0.1% 1.2% 1.2% -2.2% -0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% -0.2% 0.1% -4.4% -3.5% -2.1% 1.2% -7.8% -12.1%
MSCI EAFE Return in $US 4.4% 3.0% 2.7% 2.6% 0.8% 0.5% -0.3% -0.6% -0.7% -1.0% -2.2% -3.1% -3.6% -3.9% -4.4% -4.4% -4.6% -5.8% -6.1% -6.3% -10.0% -10.4% -13.9%
* Data is based on a representative account selected because it has the least number of restrictions and best represents the implementation of the strategy. This information is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation of the strategy that has preceded this report in the last 12 months or accompanies it. GIPS compliant presentations of composite performance are also available at www.gmo.com. Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs, and other expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. Fees are disclosed in Part II of GMOs Form ADV and are also available in each strategys compliant presentation. Composite performance is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation for the strategy that was made available on GMO's website in October of 2012.. Performance is shown compared to the MSCI EAFE Index, a broad-based securities market index that measures large capitalization international stocks. Broad-based indices are unmanaged and are not subject to fees and expenses typically associated with managed accounts or investment funds. Investments cannot be made directly into an index. Information about the composite is as of the period-end noted above, subject to change without notice and not intended as investment advice. Source: MSCI. The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an as is basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the MSCI Parties) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. (www.mscibarra.com)
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