Professional Documents
Culture Documents
N0000]
JKH HIT CALS FY13 CONCEPT VALUE OF LKR 298 FURTHER UPSIDE DRIVEN BY GOOD OLD HYPE. SELL
LKR 370
LKR 287
YEAR END MARCH (LKR mn) Revenue EBIT Profit to Equity Holders Recurring Profit Reported EPS (LKR) EPS Growth (%) Reported PER (x) Recurring EPS (LKR) Recurring PER (x)
FY12 77,700 12,200 9,700 7,400 11.5 18.5 24.9 8.7 32.9
FY13A 85,600 13,900 12,200 11,800 14.3 23.3 20.1 13.9 20.6
FY13E* 85,100 13,700 12,000 11,000 14.1 21.6 21.9 13.1 21.9
SELL
Date 31-May-13
Market Capitalization (USD): 1.9bn
39.3
1-year avg. Daily T/O (USD): 971k 1-year H/L (LKR): 297/174 Free Float: 88% *CALs estimates. Refer appendix 2 for details
JKHs FY13 EPS of LKR 14.3 was in-line with CALs FY13E*. In FY14E, CAL expects a drastic decline in EPS to LKR 9.3 (-c.34%) as JKH incurs higher costs as a result of escalating operational costs (+ c.21% YoY) and an increase in finance charges as new developments commence. CAL continues to expect EBIT to be supported by JKHs Leisure and Transport segment (c.65% of FY14E EBIT). JKHs NTB stake still stands at c.30%, and a sell-down to 15% may add c.LKR 24/share in FY14E. CALs fair value for JKH is LKR 210 ( -37% from current price). The market has priced in CALs c.LKR 100 for concept value and further upside is only possible on hype. HOLD
Profit driven by FV gain and net finance income JKHs FY13 revenue was LKR 85.6 in-line with our expectations. The marginally higher than expected net profit of LKR 12.2bn was driven by c.LKR 3.7bn in net finance income and a LKR 2bn gain on FV of investment property. In FY14E, CAL expects the use of cash reserves and higher finance charges to result in an EPS of LKR 9.3 (-c.34% YoY). JKH is yet to sell-down a c.15% stake in NTB (as per regulations), which may add a one-time LKR 24/share to FY14E. FY14E Transport and Leisure revenue flat As a result of competition from new sources, CAL expects a marginal 2% YoY growth in revenue for both segments. The SAGT port operations are likely to see volumes decline, although EBIT margins remain stable due to LKR depreciation (LKR 133/USD by FY14) and an increase in USD based pricing (+c.5% YoY). The Leisure segment will continue to be hit with lower occupancies at flagship hotels due to tourists opting for less costly alternatives. CAL expects Leisure EBIT margins to contract to c.19% in FY14E from c.25% in FY12. Considering that these two segments form 50%+ of CALs SOTP value, marginal growth is a concern. JKH trades at a c.37% premium to CALs SOTP JKH hit CALs LKR 298 based on concept value (a c.37% premium to fundamental value). Considering that JKH has yet to announce its major development (more importantly the added sweetener), CAL remains cautious. We recommend investors to take profit while awaiting the news, bearing in mind that the company will require substantial capital to commence the proposed development. On announcement of the news, the 1-year target price for JKH is likely to be LKR 310 (a +8%). SELL
CAL Research
Level 5, Millennium House, No.46/58, Nawam Mawatha, Colombo 2 Tel: +94 11 231 7786 Email: purasisi@capitalalliance.lk
Purasisi Jinadasa
FY13* 19,783 NA
Deviation 2% -
JKHs Transport segment continues to be driven by its container terminal operations (c.75% of EBIT). CAL expects FY14 EBIT to be c.LKR 3.7bn, resulting in a flat EBIT margin of c.18%.
520,000 510,000 500,000 490,000 480,000 470,000 460,000 450,000 440,000 430,000 420,000
0.20
0.00
SAGT Volumes-LHS
CAL assumes a 5% increase in USD charges/container over the current year and expects a LKR 130/USD by FY14E, which are likely to hold margins stable. However, due to the anticipated opening of the new container terminal, CAL expects TEUs handled to continue to drop over the course of the year.
LKR bn
TEUs
CALs outlook on JKHs Sri Lanka hotels has taken a downturn due to over -pricing. Although we expect c.1.1mn (+c.10%) increase in tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka, hotel occupancy levels are falling. Particularly, Cinnamon Lakeside and properties in the south are likely to continue taking a hit. JKH currently has c.1840 rooms in Sri Lanka and may find it challenging to fill 1100 rooms on a daily basis as the number of ungraded value-for-money alternatives increase. In FY14E, CAL expects JKH group-wide occupancy rates to average 70%.
CAL expects this segment to be hit by higher import costs (due to a weaker LKR), the imposition of a 12% VAT on items sold in supermarkets and the recent hike in electricity tariffs (+c.20%). The increase in revenue of (c.7.5% is less than CALs 2013 inflation estimate of 10%).
JKHs new development on Gregorys road is priced in USD. As a result, both revenue and EBIT are likely to see improvement in FY14E.
CAL expects FY14E revenue to be driven primarily by Union Assurance (+30% YoY growth). For the purpose of CALs SOTP, we have included JKHs NTB stake as part of EBIT. If JKH sells down its stake to 15%, EBIT may reduce by LKR 354mn. Other financial services are likely to contribute c.2% to EBIT.
The better than expected performance was primarily driven by higher than expected revenue and stronger margins from the other segment (primarily plantations). CAL expects FY14 EBIT to be hit by the increase in COP at the plantations.
2014E
9 1 210
LKR mn EBIT Total FCF Terminal Value EV Price/Share LKR mn EBIT Total FCF Terminal Value EV Price/Share LKR mn EBIT Total FCF Terminal Value EV Price/Share 2014E 3,566 6,881 60,179 67,060 80 2014E 3,955 2,199 23,597 25,796 31 2014E 1,351 1,226 9,011 10,237 12
PROPERTY Target Capital Structure (D/E) Cost of Equity Cost of Debt Growth Rate WACC FINANCIAL SERVICES Target Capital Structure (D/E) Cost of Equity Cost of Debt Growth Rate WACC OTHERS Target Capital Structure (D/E) Cost of Equity Cost of Debt Growth Rate WACC
VALUE 50/50 21.0% 10.0% 1.0% 15.1% VALUE 30/70 20.0% 9.0% 2.0% 15.8% VALUE 30/70 20.0% 10.0% 2.0% 16.3%
LKR mn EBIT Total FCF Terminal Value EV Price/Share LKR mn EBIT Total FCF Terminal Value EV Price/Share LKR mn EBIT Total FCF Terminal Value EV Price/Share
2014E 903 1,855 13,916 15,771 19 2014E 2,943 8,110 35,052 43,163 51 2014E 445 3,267 9,655 12,922 15
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14E
May-13
DISCLAIMER
This document has been prepared and issued on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources, believed to be reliable. Capital Alliance Securities (Private) Limited however does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates given constitute a judgment as of the date of the material and are subject to change without notice. This report is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The recipient of this report must make their own independent decision regarding any securities, investments or financial instruments mentioned herein. Securities or financial instruments mentioned may not be suitable to all investors. Capital Alliance Securities (Private) Limited its directors, officers, consultants, employees, outsourced research providers associates or business partner, will not be responsible, for any claims damages, compensation, suits, damages, loss, costs, charges, expenses, outgoing or payments including attorneys fees which recipients of the reports suffers or incurs directly or indirectly arising out actions taken as a result of this report. This report is for the use of the intended recipient only. Access, disclosure, copying, distribution or reliance on any of it by anyone else is prohibited and may be a criminal offence.
10
Contacts
Research Team
Tel No: +94 11 231 7777 (General) Email: teamresearch@capitalalliance.lk
Head of Research
Purasisi Jinadasa Tel No: +94 11 231 7786 Email: purasisi@capitalalliance.lk Udeeshan Jonas Tel No: +94 11 231 7746 Email: udeeshan@capitalalliance.lk Reshan Wediwardana Email: reshan@capitalalliance.lk Dushan de Silva Email: dushan@capitalalliance.lk Thushani de Silva Email: thushani@capitalalliance.lk Ananya Udeshi Email: ananya@capitalliance.lk
11