Review Paper

Pak. J. Agri., Agril. Engg., Vet. Sc. 21(2)2005

PAKISTAN AGRICULTURE IN GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

B.A. Sheikh*, S.A. Sheikh* and G.H. Soomro* The agriculture sector faces some crucial and critical challenges. Pakistan population during the last three decades has increased from 65 million to 161 million at present, and is expected to increase to 234 million by 2025 reaching 357 million by 2050. The situation of per capita availability of land and water in the country is extremely alarming and has further accentuated the problem of agriculture productivity. The per capita land availability has progressively declined to 0.15 ha at present, shrinking further to 0.06 ha by 2050. Similarly, the per capita water availability has dropped from 5600 cu meters to 1200 cu meters, which could slip further to the water-deficient level below 1000 cu meters per year by 2010 onwards. Therefore, we must possess the potential and the ability to meet growing demands for food, for which the planning in the past, had been half hearted, erratic and uncertain. The demands on the use of natural resource base will almost surely increase in ways we cannot even imagine today. In a finite, interdependent, and rapidly changing world, the maintenance of strong food, fiber, and forest production systems and the protection and wise use of our natural resources is the need of the hour. The interdependency of agricultural production practices with conservation of land and water systems has now linked farmers with environmentalists. Food safety concerns and ground water contamination are changing contemporary thinking about food and fiber production with the balance of nature. Genetic engineering, biotechnology, alternative practices, and sustainable rural development are simultaneously linked with global climate change, acid rain, ground water contamination and extinction of species. The projected annual increases in food production in the coming decades to meet our domestic needs are 3-4%. Expanded crop areas or higher production per unit land area per unit time are the only sources for the achievement of 3-4% increase in production. The only way to obtain these increases could be from intensification of landuse for higher yields and increase in the number of crops produced per year. It is thus mandatory for all the stakeholders including policy planners and decision makers not to loose their sight while ensuring food security in the backdrop of expected population growth, from livelihood security and ecological rehabilitation in years to come particularly in Pakistan. Agriculture forms the largest sector of national economy of Pakistan. It is strongly linked with food security, poverty alleviation, rural development and as a means to achieve bigger goals, for example, employment led economic growth through its linkages and multiplier effects. The agriculture sector, however, faces some crucial and critical challenges. Pakistan population during the last three decades has increased from 65 million to 161 million at present, and is expected to increase to 234 million by 2025 reaching 357 million by 2050 on the basis of UN medium variant projection (assuming to drop from total fertility rate (TFR) of 5 children per woman to 2.1 during the next 25 years). This buildup of massive population momentum will place immense pressure on agriculture resource base * calling for substantial increase in food production. There will be no option except to import food, if increases in demographic and socio-economic demands and related constraints are not matched by an adequate increase in productivity through land. Worldwide arable land is already less than 0.2 ha per capita at present, and is expected to further shrink to 0.15 in 2050. Situation is extremely alarming in Pakistan, where per capita land availability has progressively declined to 0.15 ha at present, shrinking further to 0.06 ha by 2050. Similarly, the per capita water availability has dropped from 5600 cu meters to 1200 cu meters, which could slip further to the water-deficient level below 1000 cu meters per year by 2010 onwards.

Sindh Agriculture University Tandojam, Pakistan. 53

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Therefore, we must possess the potential and the ability to meet growing demands for food, for which the planning in the past, had been half hearted, erratic and uncertain. The greatest challenge lying ahead for all of us is to increase food and fiber production while maintaining the ecosystem stability and rehabilitation of the environment. The issues and challenges in this regard are to be overcome in such a manner, so that, everyone can be adequately and nutritiously fed without over-exploiting the Earths resources. This is more so necessary in the light of Agriculture Scenario in Pakistan in the past half century during which we have only witnessed stagnation instead of expansion and environmental degradation instead of upgradation. This had further been aggravated due to inadequate resource allocation to the sector commensurating to its contribution in G.D.P. (Gross Domestic Products) further jeoperdising R&D efforts in the sector to keep pace with time and the needs which happen to be emergent in nature. It is projected now, however, that almost all future increases in food production will be through increase in yield (output per unit land area and/or animals per unit time) and from growing additional crops during a given year on the same land. There are really, no other viable options. This underscores in a dramatic way, the importance of science and new technologies for meeting future national and global food needs. Environmental issues will become more challenging as more land, water, fertilizers and pesticides are diverted to food production to attain higher productivity. New technologies will accentuate for the use of more, not less, inputs and chemicals (fertilizer, pesticides) to increase food production. This is going to happen as population continues to increase and demands continue to inflate. As a matter of fact, due to shrinkage in arable land and intense cultivation, many societal global problems have emerged relating to agricultural sustainability and food security. These include poverty, malnutrition, inflation, unemployment, loss of soil fertility, soil erosion, deforestation, desertification, firewood shortages, toxic chemicals in our environment, changing climate impacts, and agricultural production stability. These problems strongly suggest for developing world including Pakistan to reassess the human needs and seek technologies that will result in stable production through higher yields. These challenges therefore must be seriously addressed to their accomplishment in a sustainable manner. Sustainable agriculture biodiversity, including that of plants and animals, and natural resources, requires that their ownership and control lie with decentralized agricultural communities to generate livelihoods, provide food and conserve the environment and the ecosystem. These three dimensions i.e., ecological security, livelihood security and food security must be the essential elements of a national agriculture policy and development programs, which must be launched and embarked upon in a focused manner not only to overcome issues mentioned above but also through utilizing the technical expertise to surmount the challenges lying ahead, which are: a) The Gene Revolution The past two decades have seen dramatic advances, in understanding of how, biological organisms function at the molecular level, as well as in our ability to analyse, understand, and manipulate DNA molecules, and the biological material, from which the genes in all organisms are made. The entire process has been accelerated by the Human Genome Project, which has contributed substantially into the development of new technologies, for working with human genes. The same technologies are directly applicable to all other organisms, including plants and animals. Thus, a new scientific discipline of genomics has arisen. This discipline has contributed to powerful new approaches in agriculture and medicine, and has helped to promote the biotechnology industry. Genomics is being followed by the science of proteomics, which is likely to provide exciting insights into the working of the cell. The future increased needs in agriculture productivity could only be envisaged through genetic manipulation in crops, fruits and vegetables. b) The Ecotechnology Revolution Knowledge is a continuum. There is much to learn from the past, in terms of the ecological and social sustainability of technologies. At the same time, new developments have opened up new opportunities for developing technologies, which can lead to high productivity, without adverse impact on the natural resources base. Blending traditional and frontier technologies, leads to the birth of ecotechnologies, with combined strength in economics, ecology, equity, employment and energy.

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c) The Yield Revolution Productivity improvement will be possible only, if greater attention is paid, to improving the efficiency of input use, particularly nutrients and water. To cite just one example, cotton yields in Pakistan are less than 20 percent of the yields, achieved in several other countries like Egypt and USA. To bridge the gap between actual and potential yields, prevailing at the currently available levels of technology, a multidisciplinary constraint analysis will have to be undertaken in different regions and farming systems. In the short term, the highest priority should go to utilizing the untapped production reservoir, existing at current levels of technology. In the longer term, the prospects for improving yields further without associated ecological harm, will have to be explored. d) Sustainable Agriculture and Technological Advancement: Sustainable development is the management and conservation of the natural resource base, and the orientation of technological and institutional change in such a manner as to ensure the attainment and continued satisfaction of human needs for present and future generations. Such sustainable development (in the agricultural livestock, fishery and forestry sectors) which concerns land, water, plant and animal genetic resources, is environmentally non-degrading, technically appropriate, economically viable and socially acceptable. Sustainability concerns have occupied a place on the global agenda, with publication of the International Union for the Conservation of Natures (IUCN) World Conservation Strategy and the Brundtland Commissions report Our Common Future. Though visions of sustainability vary across regions and circumstances, a broad international consensus has emerged that its goals should be to foster a transition toward development paths to meet human needs while preserving the Earths life support systems and alleviating hunger and poverty integrating the three pillars, namely environmental, social and economic sustainability. Reckless exploitation of natural resources to push up agricultural growth in the past, has put severe pressure on the resource base of several developing countries. Improvement in the household food security may not be possible without ensuring a sustainable agriculture through the blend of conservation of the resource base and induction of new technological breakthroughs by harnessing biotechnological approaches in agriculture. Science in its diverse forms has much to offer by way of solutions, to finding escape routes from poverty and answer questions of resource sustenance, through sustainable agriculture and technological advancement. Therefore, the need for policy makers to come to grips with these issues, cannot be overstated. Biotechnology has matured to the stage of generating products of commercial significance. The acceptance of these technologies, however, depend upon many factors, which are beyond the realm of science. There is a general agreement that biotechnology offers many advantages both through productivity increase as well as, through improvement in the quality of agricultural products. Serious reservations, however, persist about health and environmental implications of large-scale application of biotechnology. It is important that these concerns are adequately addressed to. Despite the fact that population pressure will demand increased supply of food, agriculture and biotechnology research offers the best solution. For developing the technologies it is essential to harvest advantages of genetic engineering, stem cell propagation and tissue culture etc. However, it is yet to be certain if the products of its application will find consumer acceptability. Therefore, there is need for discussions and demystifying the technology. A decision relating to the acceptance of technology should be based on the balance sheet of risks versus benefits. However, the risks if associated, including the perceived ones, need to be evaluated in the aftermath of overall national needs and interests. Another important concern relates to the ecology and environment. Increasing emphasis on environmental protection, as a policy objective, has a bearing on the structure of agricultural production. So, the agriculture development plans, need to be synchronized to the agro-ecological systems, in different regions of country, keeping in view, the peculiarities of situations. But, it is also a fact and be kept in mind that the modern technologies will continue to affect agricultureenvironment interface. The future development strategies must therefore, simultaneously address the economic objectives, the social concerns and ecological restraints warranting a partnership

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approach amongst various stakeholders i.e. farmers, economists, scientists and government in the sphere of technical change. The precision technology has potential to make a major contribution to agricultural production without influencing the environment negatively. e) Liberalized Trade Regime Liberalized agriculture trade is the issue of potential concern, that agriculture sector is faced with these days. Along with the technical breakthroughs, agriculture has witnessed significant institutional changes. The most important among these is the liberalized agricultural trade regime characterized by the Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) under the World Trade Organization. The Agreement on Agriculture is seen by many to enhance welfare gains of the partner countries. There are skeptics, however, who not only question the volume of gains but also raise serious concerns on the distribution of gains from the perspective of the developing countries. One may objectively argue that the implications of AoA have not been fully comprehended by the developing countries in their rush to sign the agreement. An important question is whether a rushed agricultural trade liberalization will really help the developing countries? Any developing economy can go down the hill from a fairly reasonable state of growth situation to a situation of ever rising imports of foodgrain. This, in turn, would also have a significant dampening effect on agriculture productivity, employment and social stability. f) Societal Characteristics, Inequities and Food Security: It is now widely accepted that poverty is currently the principal root cause of food insecurity at the level of households. Food security at the level of each individual is hence, important. UNDPs Human Development Report for the year 2000, titled Human Rights and Human Development chronicles the different kinds of inequities prevalent in contemporary societies. The report points out that poverty limits human freedoms and deprives a person of dignity. The Vienna Declaration, adopted at the 1993 World Conference on Human Rights, also affirms that extreme poverty and social exclusion constitute a violation of human dignity. The report stresses that expanding human capabilities and securing human rights can empower poor people to escape poverty. It is clear that the poor in this country are poor only, because, they have no access to the resources. Hence, the basic approach to poverty eradication has to be asset building and human development. Food Security is another issue that we are confronted within the perspective of the population growth trends in Pakistan. Therefore, adequate food availability is fundamental to human health needs. The demand for plant and animal food is determined by multiple factors. Amongst them are, the population size, rate of change in per capita income, process of urbanization, changes in dietary patterns and changes in income generation. Since land and water will be shrinking resources for agriculture, there is no option in the future except to produce more food and other agricultural commodities from less per capita arable land and irrigation water. In other words, the need for more food has to be met, through higher yields per units of land, water, energy and time. It would therefore be useful to examine, how science can be mobilized for raising further, the ceiling to biological productivity without associated ecological harm. Keeping in view the exponential increase in human population and their food needs in the coming years, it is to be decided what kind of planning is needed to be done? It will surely be within the framework of human needs, that agriculture and animal production systems will perform, over the coming decades. When we talk about our agricultural resource base, we are talking about severe and growing problems. Our annual top soil loss is increasing and water may soon outrank land as a major constraint to Pakistan food production. The finiteness of our land and water resources; the impact of overuse and erosion of our lands, the increasing pressures of our people for more mouths to be fed, but also in their growing demands for the use of land and water resources will affect our agricultural production capacity. The projected annual increases in food production in the coming decades to meet our domestic needs are 3-4%. Expanded crop areas or higher production per unit land area per unit time are the only sources for the achievement of 3-4% increase in production. The only way to obtain these increases could be from intensification of landuse for higher yields and increase in the

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number of crops produced per year. To do this, one must consider the resource inputs (land, water, energy, fertilizer, pesticides, human labour, machinery), their costs, availability and renewability. g) Global Warming and Glaciers Meltdown in Himalayas Global warming is defined as the increase in average temperatures on the earth caused by the greenhouse effect, through gas emissions due to extensive use of fossil fuels as a principal contributor to pollution leading to change in climate. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has predicted that humanitys emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will raise global average temperature by 1.4-5.8oC (2.5-10.4oF) by the end of the century which will affect weather patterns, water resources, the cycling of seasons, ecosystems and extreme climate events. Temperatures in the Himalayan region have increased by more than 1oC recently and are set to rise by a further 1.2oC by 2050, and by 3oC by the end of the century. This heating has already caused 24 of Bhutans glacial lakes to reach potentially dangerous status. The conditions are not different in Nepal. Similar is the situation in northern mountains of our beloved country in Himalayan, Hindu-kush and Karakorum ranges. Future disasters around the Himalayas will include floods, droughts, land erosion, loss of biodiversity and changes in rainfall and the monsoon. The roof of the world is changing, as can be seen by Nepals Khumbu glacier. Which has retreated three miles since 1953. Almost 95 percent of Himalayan glaciers are also shrinking---and that kind of ice loss has profound implications not just for Nepal and Bhutan, but for surrounding nations, including China, India, and Pakistan. Eventually, the Himalayan glaciers will shrink so much that their melt waters will dry up. At the same time, rivers fed by these melted glaciers---such as the Indus, Yellow and Mekong---will turn to trickles. Drinking and irrigation water will disappear. Hundreds of millions of people will be affected. There is a short-term danger of flooding too much water as coming out of the Himalayas and a greater long-term danger of their not being enough in years to come, leading to loss of agriculture, productivity, starvation and increased poverty etc. It is therefore, mandatory for all in the region to plan for future and embark upon execution of options available to us. h) Environmental Degradation & Wetland Rehabilitation: Another problem that is of specific concern to the agriculture and human health pertains to environmental degradation through global warming, unabated waste and industrial effluents particularly in rivers, canals and wetlands, which may be lead to environmental disaster in years to come, particularly in developing countries. Wetlands have been defined as areas of marsh, fen, wetlands or water, whether natural or artificial, permanent or temporary with water static or flowing, fresh, brackish or salt-laden including areas of marine water, the depth of which at low tide does not exceed six meters. Wetlands in Sindh are undergoing a process of decline and degradation primarily due to population pressure, industrial/ domestic pollution, pesticides runoff and lack of awareness about the wetlands. A major threat to wetlands has been ignorance of the ecological services provided by them. Due to wetlands importance on productive ecosystem, serious steps need to be taken with special emphasis to the potential of their conservation, productivity, and the extent of degradation. There is need to address the factors for conservation vis--vis degradation of wetlands with respect to the biodiversity, water quality, and aquatic ecosystem. The agro-industrial toxic waste and the so called anthropogenic effluent drained through the freshwater canals discharge into wetlands has severely damaged the food chain. The toxic waste is hazardous not only to the wild birds, but, to the whole biodiversity of wetlands, which include fish, turtles, and other aquatic life. The fish from these heavily polluted wetlands is netted in large quantities and sold in the markets without testing and residue analysis of bio-accumulated pollutants present inside cells and tissues of fish exposing the consumers to health hazards. Similar conditions prevail for domestic livestock (grazing and drinking polluted water) and the fishing communities inhabiting the area (consuming unhygienic water, fish, birds and aquatic plant foods). Degradation of environment will also result due to use of new technologies which will call for

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increased use of chemicals (fertilizer, pesticides) to increase food production. Toxic chemicals in the environment (many of them pesticides and fertilizers) have been declared environmental threats and hazards to human health and wellbeing. Debates will continue on issues of food safety, deleterious effects on fish and wildlife, endangered species and caracinogenicity. It has not yet been clarified by anyone, as to what an environmentally sustainable set of agricultural production technologies might be? In the light of given perspective, it is anticipated that demands on the use of natural resource base will almost surely increase in ways we cannot even imagine today. In a finite, interdependent, and rapidly changing world, the maintenance of strong food, fiber, and forest production systems and the protection and wise use of our natural resources is on the anvil. The interdependency of agricultural production practices with conservation of land and water systems has now linked farmers with environmentalists. Food safety concerns and ground water contamination are changing contemporary thinking about food and fiber production with the balance of nature. Genetic engineering, biotechnology, alternative practices, and sustainable rural development are simultaneously linked with global climate change, acid rain, ground water contamination and extinction of species. Dyson, T. 1996. Population and food: Global trends and future prospects. New York, Routledge. Eldredge, N. 1998. Life in the balance: Humanity and the biodiversity crisis. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey. FAO. 1992. Sustainable Development Concept and Strategies. In: Sustainable Agricultural Development: The Role of International Cooperation. Proc. 21st FAO Int. Conf. of Agri. Econ., 22-29 August, 1991, Tokyo, Japan. Dartmouth, USA, pp.391-404. FAO. 1998. Poverty Alleviation and Food Security in Asia-Lessons and Challenges. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Regional Office for Asia and Pacific, Bangkok. FAO. 2000. The state of world fisheries and aquaculture. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Fischer, G; Shah, M; van Velthuizen, H and F. Nachtergaele (eds). 2001. Global agroecological assessment for agriculture in the 21st Century. Summary Report of the IIASA Land Use Project, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria. ICSU/ISTS/TWAS (International Council for Science, Initiative on Science and Technology for Sustainability, Third World Academy of Sciences). 2002. Science and technology for sustainable development. ICSU Series on Science for Sustainable Development, No.9. ICSU, Paris. IUCN. 1980. World conservation strategy: Living resource conservation for sustainable development. International Union for the Conservation of Nature, Gland, Switzerland. IUCN. 2004. Deforestation in Pakistan. Education Unit. IUCN, Pakistan. Mabogunje, A.L. 2002. Poverty and environmental degradation: Challenges within the global economy. Environment, 44(1):8-30. McCartney, M.P and M.C. Acreman. 2003. Wetlands and water resources. In: Maltby E (ed) The wetlands handbook. Blackwells, Oxford, UK, In press.

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