Promotion of Modal Shift from Road-based Transport to Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) System

Reporting Meeting on the Feasibility Studies of Joint Crediting Mechanism(JCM) 2012 in Indonesia

MITSUBISHI RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INC.

February, 2013

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Target MRT North-South Line in Jakarta

MRT Jakarta North-South Line is supported by Japanese foreign loans (JICA) and Japanese advanced technologies.

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SourcePT MRT Jakarta

Financial Plan and Project participants

Financial Plan
Phase Phase I Fund Yen Loan Indonesian National and Local government (Total) Phase II Yen Loan will be applied Investment [Billion yen] 118 24
Approval for establishment A biggest shareholder

Project Participants

Provincial Government of DKI Jakarta

DKI Jakarta is a biggest shareholder of PT. MRT Jakarta, which composition is 99.5%

142 unknown

PT MRT Jakarta
PT MRT Jakarta was incorporated in 2008 after the approval of DKI Jakarta Local Legislative Parliament through Local Act. PT MRT Jakarta will be responsible to all activities starting from the Engineering Service, Construction through Operations and Maintenance for MRT.
MRT operating company = Project Owner
3

* JICA also has provided grant to do feasibility study of extension MRT corridor from Bundaran HI Kampung Bandan (Kota).

SourcePT MRT Jakarta Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.

Emission reductions by modal shift to MRT

Emission Reductions
(tCO2) Reference Emission
CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 Modal shift

Reference Emission
(tCO2)

Project Emission
(tCO2) Project Emission
CO2

More CO2 emissions

Difference = Emission reduction

Fewer CO2 emissions

CO2 emissions by MRT and transport modes which MRT passengers use for access/egress trip

CO2 emissions by transport modes which MRT passengers will have used if MRT is not introduced
4

Eligibility Criteria and Reference Scenario

Eligibility Criteria
1 A project intended to introduce a mass passenger transport system (e.g. MRT, BRT) 2 A project using or planning to use non-private foreign capital, in part or in whole, for introducing a mass passenger transport system

Reference Scenario
The existing transport modes continue to be used instead of MRT.
Emissions [tCO2]

Reference Scenario
Emissions by existing transport modes

Emission Reductions
Difference between two scenarios

Project Scenario
Emissions by MRT MRT starts operation year
5

Selection of a Calculation Method

Three calculation methods are prepared to calculate GHG emission reductions. This enable project participants to select the best-suited calculation method, in consideration of the amount of GHG emission reductions and monitoring burden. Reference Access/egress Emissions Factor traffic Questionnaire survey for access/egress traffic Y N Default Default

Low Low Emission Reductions Monitoring Burden

Questionnaire survey for reference emissions factor Y

Default

Question naire

Question naire

Question naire

High High

Note : Numbers (1), (2) and (3) corresponds to Calculation methods 1, 2, and 3 in following slides
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Overview of calculation method for option 1

Emission Reductions

Emission Reductions
(tCO2)

Reference Emission
(tCO2)

Project Emission
(tCO2)

Reference Emissions

Reference Emission
(tCO2) Project Emissions

Person 1+ kilometers (pkm)

Correction factor of travel distance for access/egress zone (-)

CO2 emission factor (tCO2/pkm)

Project Emission
(tCO2)

Emissions from electricity consumption by MRT (tCO2)

7

Emissions from fuel consumption by trip for access/egress zone (tCO2)

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Reference Emissions
CO2 emissions by transport modes which MRT passengers will have used if MRT is not introduced.

Reference Emission =
(tCO2)

Personkilometers (pkm) Calculated

1+

Correction factor of travel distance for access/egress zone (-) Default Value (Constant)

CO2 emission factor for reference (tCO2/pkm) Default Value (Updated annually)

For between each MRT station

Number of passengers between each station (persons) Distance between each station (km) Default Value (Constant)
8

Monitored
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Project Emissions
CO2 emissions by MRT and transport modes which MRT passengers use for access/egress trip.

Project Emission
(tCO2)

Emissions from electricity consumption by MRT (tCO2)

Emissions from fuel consumption by trip for access/egress zone (tCO2)

Transmission and distribution loss of grid (-)
Default value (Updated annually)

Electricity consumption = by MRT (kWh)

Monitored

CO2 emission factor for 1 grid electricity (tCO2/kWh)

Default value (Updated annually)

Correction factor of Distance CO2 emission Number of passengers travel distance for factor for project between each station between each (tCO2/pkm) access/egress zone station (km) (persons)
Monitored Default Value (Constant) Default Value (Constant) Default Value (Updated annually)

For between each MRT station

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Monitoring
For Reference Emissions
Parameters Number of passengers between each station (persons) Organization MRT operating company Method 2 options as below Frequency continuously

Monitoring method 1: IC Card (simple method) Monitoring method 2: Estimated by fare revenue and number of passengers who get on and get off MRT at each station.
ODOrigin-Destination table between each MRT station

A st 100

B st 250

C st 300 500

Number of passengers between each station (persons)

A st B st C st

50 300

For Project Emissions

Parameters Electricity consumption (kWh)
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Organization MRT operating company

10

Method Electricity purchase slips

Frequency every purchase (aggregate annually)

Default Values
R/P*
RE*

Item
CO2 emission factor for existing transport modes [tCO2/pkm]
* This value should be updated annually, by multiplying technology improvement factor. The factor is 1.0% per year which is from ACM0016.

Default Value
Distance between stations Less than 1 km 1km 5km 5km 10km 10km 15km Distance between stations Less than 1 km 1km 5km 5km 10km 10km 15km CO2 emission factor 6.0410-5 6.6910-5 6.9610-5 5.1210-5 Correction factor 1.33 0.43 0.37 0.31 CO2 emission factor 0.3210-5 0.6110-5 1.3710-5 1.4710-5 0.73 (year 2010) 0.094 (year 2010) 11

Note
[Source] Questionnaire surveys in Hanoi conducted 2012 [Remark] lower limit of 95% confidence interval

RE/ PE*

Correction factor which is the ratio travel distance for access/egress zone against travel distance between MRT stations [-]

[Source] Questionnaire surveys in Hanoi conducted 2012 [Remark] lower limit of 95% confidence interval

PE*

CO2 emission factor for existing transport modes which MRT passengers use for access/egress trip [tCO2/pkm]
* This

Distance between stations Less than 1 km 1km 5km 5km 10km 10km 15km

value should be updated annually, by multiplying technology improvement factor. The factor is 1.0% per year which is from ACM0016.

[Source] Questionnaire surveys in Hanoi conducted 2012 [Remark] lower limit of 95% confidence interval

CO2 emission factor for grid electricity [tCO2/MWh] Transmission and distribution loss of grid electricity [-]
* R/P; R = RE = For Reference Emissions, P = PE = For Project Emissions
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[Source] National Committee on CDM Indonesian DNA [Remark] Updated annually [Source] World bank [Remark] Updated annually

Basis for Default Values; CO2 emission factor

CO2 emission factor for existing transport modes

The default value for CO2 emission factor is only as a guide, because this is based on the survey conducted in Hanoi. Regarding Indonesia, another survey is necessary. CO2 emission factor for existing transport modes is calculated as below.

Travel distance (km)

Number of Fuel consumption accompanied CO2 emission people factor (tCO2/l) (km/l) (persons)
See below See below See below

Average travel distance (km)

See below

Data used for setting default values

Fuel consumption* [km/l] 0 0 30.84 11.18 12.75 2.87 Number of accompanied people* [persons] 1.00 1.00 1.17 1.51 2.30 40.18 Fuel type Gasoline Gasoline Gasoline Diesel
12

Mode On foot Bicycle Motorcycle Automobile Taxi Bus

CO2 emission factor for fuel [tCO2/l] 0 0 2.4010-3 2.4010-3 2.4010-3 2.7910-3

Distance [km] Less than 1 15 5 10 10 15

Average travel distance [km] 3.39 4.86 9.10 13.90

* These data are average data. In the actual calculation, the data for each person were used.

Emission Reduction Potential trial estimation For 1st phase and 2nd phase
Assumptions
Item Electricity consumption by MRT *1 Annual electricity consumption by MRT Number of passengers
*2

Estimated emission reductions

Value 3,016 70,265 629,900 23.3 2037 unit MWh/km MWh/year Passengers/day km year

Estimated Emissions Reference Project Reductions 141,722 t-CO2/year 64,598 t-CO2/year 77,124 t-CO2/year

MRT operating distance *2 Target year of estimation

For 1st phase

Assumptions
Item Electricity consumption by MRT *1 Annual electricity consumption by MRT Number of passengers
*3

Estimated emission reductions

Value 3,016 45,838 334,000 15.2 2020 unit MWh/km MWh/year Passengers/day km year

Estimated Emissions Reference Project Reductions 57,033 t-CO2/year 39,718 t-CO2/year 17,315 t-CO2/year

MRT operating distance *2 Target year of estimation

*1: JABODETABEK Urban Transportation Policy Integration Project in the Republic of Indonesia (JICA,2009) *2: PT. MRT Jakarta Website *3: Interview PT. MRT Jakarta
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13

Toward the future

Project 1 The schedule of constructing MRT North-South Line in Jakarta
The planned start date of operating North-South Line is year 2016.

Methodology 1 Conducting surveys in Jakarta

To set default values, similar surveys as Hanoi is necessary for Jakarta. It might be appropriate that the surveys is conducted at the point of just before MRT starts operation.

Considering a change of traffic situation across the ages

Current methodology considers a change of technology improvement by multiplying improvement factor for each year. It might be necessary that the changes of traffic situation is evaluated and considered to calculating emission reductions after MRT starts operation.

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Appendix

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Overview of Household Survey in Hanoi (1/2)

Purpose To set the modal share as the default value, based on the understanding of the daily use of travel mode. To understand the willingness of using MRT and supposed access / egress travel mode To set the fuel efficiency for each vehicle type as the default value, based on the understanding of the fuel consumption and travel distance. Targets Sample size: 5,000 people Men and women over the age of five, who live in and go to schools and hospitals along Hanoi No. 1 and No. 2 . Method Conducting in two phase: Small scale Pilot-survey and Full scale Mainsurvey Face-to-face interview visiting respondents home Showing a video and map of MRT with tablet PC in order to help respondents to understand the image of MRT
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Overview of Household Survey (2/2)

Survey Items Male/Female Age House types The number of cars or motorcycles in use Occupation Income bracket Information of the trip for one week-day
Date of trip Purpose of trip The number of people accompanied on each trip Origin and Destination Travel mode / Time / Distance / Fee

General Information

Trip Information

Household Survey
Vehicle information
Type of vehicle / Model Engine Capacity Manufacture Year of purchase / manufacture

Fuel Efficiency

Willingness to use MRT

Respondent is willing to use MRT

Access and egress traffic (Travel mode/time/fee/distance) MRT (station/willingness to pay)

Fuel information
Frequency of refuel How to refuel Type of fuel Amount of fuel consumption and fuel fee for survey duration Travel distance for survey duration

Respondent is willing not to use MRT

The reason of not using

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Overview of Interview Survey in Hanoi (1/2)

Purpose To set the fuel efficiency for each vehicle type as a default value, based on the understanding of the fuel consumption of buses and taxis. To set the average number of passengers per each vehicle as a default value. Targets Bus operating companies in Hanoi Buses that driving routes are competitive with MRT lines and connecting with MRT stations 500 taxi drivers in Hanoi Taxies that are driving along MRT lines Method
Bus

Interview to bus operating companies The questionnaire would be sent to the companies in advance.

Taxi

Interview to taxi drivers driving along the Hanoi No. 1 and No. 2 Researchers will ask to the drivers directly, but would contact to taxi companies only when the number of drivers is not enough.
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Overview of Interview Survey (2/2)

Interview to bus company
< Survey Period > Annual or monthly or daily actual figure (depending on the data sources)
Fuel efficiency
Fuel consumption Trip distance Fuel type Frequency of refuel Whether to fill up their gas tank

Interview Items

Operation and management

Number of buses Number of operation lines Distance of each operation line Bus size Frequency of operation

Average number of passengers/bus

Number of passengers Number and distance of service Average number of passengers in each bus

Interview to taxi drivers

Interview Items

< Survey Period > Annual or monthly or daily actual figure (depending on the data sources)
Fuel efficiency
Fuel consumption Trip distance Frequency of refuel Whether to fill up their gas tank Fuel type
19

Operation
Taxi company / number The year that a driver started business Area of usual driving Frequency of operation

Average number of passengers

Number of passengers Number of service Distance of day Average number of passengers per service

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Results of the site survey(1/3)

1) Modal Share
Target : People along the Hanoi No. 1 and No. 2 Survey Items : Peoples daily travel behavior

Modal Share of all trips from respondents

On foot

Modal Share of the trips which shift to MRT

On foot

Total 1.7%

66.6%

2.7% 10.2% 4.6% 8.8% 2.8%

Motorcycle (drive yourself)

Distance of a trip

Total0.5%
Motor(not drive yourself) E-motor (drive yourself)

73.3%

4.0%

14.6%

1.3% 2.4%
Motorcycle (drive yourself)

Over 15km0.1%

36.0%

1.3%

22.6%

18.0%

14.5% 0.7%

Over 15km0.0%
E-motor (not drive yourself)

62.4%

2.7%

28.7%

0.9% 4.5%

Bicycle

Motor(not drive yourself)

1015km0.4%

69.8%

2.2% 10.8% 2.9% 13.2% 0.1%

Car (drive yourself) Car (not drive yourself)

1015km 1.0%

72.4%

3.7%

15.3%

0.8% 3.3%

Car (drive yourself)

Bus

Taxi

5km10km0.8%

76.7%

2.8% 7.2%1.6%7.2%1.6%
Rent-a-car Bus

5km10km0.0%

79.3%

4.7%

9.7% 1.1% 1.2%

E-bicycle

15km 1.5%

72.4%

5.0%

7.8% 3.4% 1.0%

Car (not drive yourself)

15km 4.3%

71.2%

3.9%5.1% 1.0% 3.1% 8.5%

Bicycle E-bicycle

Taxi

Under 1km 0%

13.8% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

86.2% 60% 70% 80% 90%

0.0% 100%

Others

Under 1km 0% 10% 20%

55.9% 30% 40% 50% 60%

23.6% 70%

3.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.2% 14.8% 80% 90% 100%

Others

2) Passenger Demands

Target : People along the Hanoi No. 1 and No. 2 Survey Items : Peoples daily travel behavior if MRT was introduced Under 1km 0.18% 0.03% 1~5km 7.94% 1.26%
20

Trip Distance % of Trips shift to MRT % of Induced Trips by MRT

5~10km 14.34% 2.73%

10~15km 20.67% 3.99%

Over 15km 14.63% 7.45%

Total 14.21% 3.48%

Results of the site survey(2/3)

3) Fuel Efficiency
Target : Motorcycle, Car, Taxi, Bus Survey Items : Fuel consumption, Trip distance

Motorcycle
Average : 30.840.30[km/l]

Car
Average : 11.180.76[km/l]

120 100 80 60 40 20 0
50 45

Taxi

Bus

Average : 12.750.21[km/l]

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Average : 2.870.28 [km/l]

5 6k m

2 3k m

3 4k m

4 5k m

9k m

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

2k m

7k m

8k m

km

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

21

7k m

km

km

km

km

km

km

km

km

km

Results of the site survey(3/3)

4)Average Number of Passengers per Vehicle
Target : Motorcycle, Car, Taxi, Bus Survey Items : Number of Passengers, Number of Accompanied people

Motorcycle Average Number of Passengers 1.170.01

Car 1.510.12

Taxi 2.300.09

Bus 40.184.47

5)Access/Egress Trip to MRT

Target : People along the Hanoi No. 1 and No. 2 Survey Items : Peoples daily travel behavior if MRT was introduced

Modal Share of Access/Egress Trip to MRT

On foot Motorcycle (drive yourself)

Total Trip Distance 1~5km 5~10km 10~15km Over 15km Total

22

Distance of Access Trip [km] 0.5 0.9 1.6 9.9 1.3

Distance of Egress Trip [km] 0.5 0.9 1.6 3.9 1.0

Egress

77.9%

10.9%

Motor(not drive yourself) E-motor (not drive yourself) Car (drive yourself) Car (not drive yourself)

Access

78.6%

9.7%

Taxi Bus Bicycle

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Others