Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Copenhagen Business School MSc. Finance & Strategic Management Master Thesis: August, 2012
Author: Daniel Bergman CPR-Nr: 24-08-88-DAB1 Phone: 0046(0)76-3192716 Pages: 78 Characters: 184,330
Executive Summary
This thesis is written from an investors perspective to determine the fair value of Northland Resources share price as of the 20th of July, 2012. The valuation is supported by a fundamental analysis of the iron ore markets forecasted supply and demand capacity. For a long time the iron ore price has, been set in secretive meetings, not widely followed by banking analysts, and not been included in major commodity indexes. The iron ore price is highly leveraged towards the urbanization and industrialization phase of China. The economic prosperity of China has caused an exponential increase in commodity prices. This has led many people to believe in a new paradigm or a so called super cycle with sustained high commodity prices in the future. Northland Resources is one of the largest industrial projects in Sweden at the moment. The company will start production of a high quality iron ore concentrate in Northern Sweden by the 4th quarter of 2012. The project has required a colossal investment of more than 5 Billion SEK and serves as a very important part for the socio-economic development. This project has the potential to reverse the declining population trend and generate economic growth for the greater region. Many private investors have been amused by Northland Resources fantastic growth story. Private investors on internet forums have consistently been arguing in favor for investing in the company. Banking analysts and newspapers are also enthusiastic about Northland. The average target price for Northland by banking analysts is 15.67 NOK, which is more than a 200% upside to todays price of 5 NOK. Analysts expect the iron ore price to remain high in the future. Despite that in the last 100 years, the iron ore price has only been above $100/ton in the last 2 years. According to my conservative analysis, the iron ore supply entering the market from 2013 to 2016 combined with a restructuring of the Chinese economy will gradually phase out the Chinese high cost producers to set a new price floor at $100/ton. My prediction of the iron ore price and valuation of
Northland is contrarian to many analysts recommendations. I consider a fair value of Northlands share price to be 2.18 NOK or a 56.4 percent decline from the current market price of 5
NOK. I believe that there are strong indicators that Northland Resources will prove to be a value trap. Many investors rely on simple P/E ratios on next years earnings or intuitive DCF valuations. A more reliable DCF valuation backed by fundamental supply and demand requires more details and is far less intuitive. Investors relying on simple DCF and P/E ratios are also probably less likely to understand the composition of GDP growth that drives the demand for iron ore and are thereby deluded to invest in Northland Resources. 1
Executive Summary 1. Introduction Chapter I ......................................................................................................................... 6 1.1. Problem Identification .................................................................................................................... 6 1.2. Problem Statement.......................................................................................................................... 7 1.3 Structure of Thesis ........................................................................................................................... 7 1.3.1 1.3.2 1.3.3 1.3.4 1.3.5 1.3.6 1.3.7 Chapter II The Story of Northland Resources ................................................................. 7 Chapter III Strategic Analysis .......................................................................................... 8 Chapter IV Budgeting ...................................................................................................... 8 Chapter V Forecasting ..................................................................................................... 8 Chapter VI Valuation ....................................................................................................... 9 Chapter VII Conclusion ................................................................................................... 9 Chapter VIII Perspectives ................................................................................................ 9
1.4 Methodology .................................................................................................................................... 9 1.5 Delimitations .................................................................................................................................. 10 1.6 Source Criticism ............................................................................................................................ 10 2. The Story of Northland Resources Chapter II ................................................................................... 12 2.1. The History of Northland Resources ............................................................................................ 12 2.1.1. The Exploration Phase 2005-2010 ........................................................................................ 12 2.1.2. The Development Phase 2010-2012 ..................................................................................... 13 2.2. The Kaunisvaara Project ............................................................................................................... 14 2.3. The Hannukainen Project ............................................................................................................. 16 2.4. The Organizational Structure........................................................................................................ 17 2.5. Corporate Governance .................................................................................................................. 18 2.5.1. Ownership Structure ............................................................................................................. 18 2.5.2. Executive Compensation ...................................................................................................... 19 2.5.3. Management Team ............................................................................................................... 20 2.5.4. Board of Directors ................................................................................................................ 21 2.7. Chapter II Conclusion................................................................................................................. 22 3. Strategic Analysis Chapter III ........................................................................................................... 24 3.1. Commodity Prices ........................................................................................................................ 24 3.2. Commodity Cycles ....................................................................................................................... 24 3.2.1. Historic Commodity Cycles.................................................................................................. 25 2
3.2.2. The Current Commodity Cycle ............................................................................................ 25 3.3. The Iron Ore Market ..................................................................................................................... 27 3.3.1. The Iron Ore Industry ........................................................................................................... 27 3.3.2. The Iron Ore Product ............................................................................................................ 28 3.3.3. The Iron Ore Supply ............................................................................................................. 30 3.3.4. The Iron Ore Demand ........................................................................................................... 31 3.4. Northland Resources Strategic Position PESTEL Analysis ...................................................... 32 3.4.1. The Political Factors ............................................................................................................. 33 3.4.2. The Economical Factors ....................................................................................................... 33 3.4.3. The Social Factors ................................................................................................................ 33 3.4.4. The Technological Factors.................................................................................................... 33 3.4.5. The Environmental Factors ................................................................................................... 34 3.4.6. The Legal Factors ................................................................................................................. 34 3.5. The Industry Analysis Porters Five Forces .............................................................................. 34 3.5.1. Threat of New Competition .................................................................................................. 34 3.5.2. Threat of Substitute Product ................................................................................................. 35 3.5.3. Bargaining Power of Customers .......................................................................................... 35 3.5.4. Bargaining Power of Suppliers ............................................................................................. 35 3.5.5. Intensity of Competitive Rivalry .......................................................................................... 36 3.6. The Internal Analysis Value Chain Analysis ............................................................................ 36 3.6.1. Logistics................................................................................................................................ 36 3.6.2. Operations ............................................................................................................................. 37 3.7. Chapter III Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 37 4. Budgeting Chapter IV........................................................................................................................ 39 4.1. Reference Price & Value Premiums ............................................................................................. 39 4.2. Cost Structure ............................................................................................................................... 40 4.2.1. Operating Expenditures ........................................................................................................ 40 4.2.2. SG & A Expenditures ........................................................................................................... 40 4.2.3. Capital Expenditures ............................................................................................................. 41 4.2.4. Financial Income & Expenses .............................................................................................. 41 4.2.5. Depreciation and Tax Rate ................................................................................................... 42 4.3. Balance Sheet Risk ....................................................................................................................... 42 3
4.4. Risk Analysis ................................................................................................................................ 43 4.5. Chapter IV Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 43 5. Forecasting Chapter V ....................................................................................................................... 45 5.1. Future Production Trends ............................................................................................................. 45 5.1.1. Europe ................................................................................................................................... 45 5.1.2. North America ...................................................................................................................... 46 5.1.3. South America ...................................................................................................................... 47 5.1.4. Australia................................................................................................................................ 49 5.1.5. Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) ....................................................................... 49 5.1.6. Asia ....................................................................................................................................... 50 5.1.7. Africa .................................................................................................................................... 51 5.2. Future Consumption Trends ......................................................................................................... 51 5.2.1. The Transportation Sector .................................................................................................... 52 5.2.2. The Real Estate Sector .......................................................................................................... 52 5.2.3. The Manufacturing Sector .................................................................................................... 53 5.2.4. Chinas Five Year Plan ......................................................................................................... 54 5.2.5. Indian Demand ..................................................................................................................... 55 5.2.6. Developed Markets ............................................................................................................... 55 5.3. Estimation of Forecasted FOB Price ............................................................................................ 56 5.4. Chapter V Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 56 6. Valuation Chapter VI ........................................................................................................................ 58 6.1. The Absolute Valuation ................................................................................................................ 58 6.1.1. Discussion of Valuation Model ............................................................................................ 58 6.1.2. Assumptions ......................................................................................................................... 59 6.1.3. Valuation............................................................................................................................... 59 6.1.4. Sensitivity Analysis ............................................................................................................. 61 6.2. The Relative Valuation ................................................................................................................. 61 6.2.1. Dannemora Mineral .............................................................................................................. 61 6.3. Chapter VI Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 62 7. Conclusion Chapter VII..................................................................................................................... 63 7.1. Upside Risks ................................................................................................................................. 64 7.2. Downside Risks ............................................................................................................................ 65 4
7.3. Recommendation .......................................................................................................................... 66 8. Perspectives Chapter VIII ................................................................................................................. 68 8.1. The Behavioral Story .................................................................................................................... 68 8.1.1. The Winds of Change ........................................................................................................... 68 8.1.2. The Year of Confidence ........................................................................................................ 69 8.1.3. The Inconvenient Truth ....................................................................................................... 70 8.2. The Behavioral Aspects ................................................................................................................ 71 8.2.1. Overconfidence and The Illusion of Control ....................................................................... 72 8.2.2. Optimism ............................................................................................................................. 73 8.2.3. Internal vs. External Locus of Control & Self Attribution Bias .......................................... 74 8.2.4. Representativeness, Confirmation, & Availability Bias ...................................................... 75 8.2.5. Polarization .......................................................................................................................... 76 8.2.6. The Sunk Cost Fallacy ......................................................................................................... 76 8.3. What to expect next? ................................................................................................................... 76 Reference List....................................................................................................................................... 79 Appendix .............................................................................................................................................. 90
1. Chapter I Introduction
This chapter serves to present the disposition and synopsis. It will provide the reader with the following parts: problem identification, structure, methodology, delimitation, and source criticism.
development of Northland Resources provides an indicator of the firms future ability to generate value for shareholders.
demand capacity. The growth rate of supply and demand will be assessed in both a conservative and moderate scenario. These growth rates will be used to calculate a surplus or shortage of iron ore in the future market. These scenarios will then be used in the valuation section.
1.4 Methodology
The thesis is written from a private investors point of view and relies on publicly available information. The secondary information about Northland Resources is obtained from academic articles, Canadian Securities Administrators SEDAR filing system, Northland Resources website, and annual reports. The secondary information about the iron ore market is obtained through
9
researching the largest mining companies in the iron ore market as well as the largest consuming nations of iron ore. I will analyze forecasts and analysis made by the World Steel Association, World Steel Dynamics, IMF, among other research institute specialized in commodities or global trade. Additional information will be obtained from different newspapers and online databases such as the Financial Times, and Bloomberg. The strategic analysis and valuation techniques are obtained from the Financial Statement Analysis book written by Christian V. Petersen & Thomas Plenborg (2012). The corporate governance framework is based on the book An Introduction to Corporate Governance, Mechanisms and Systems by Steen Thomsen (2008). The behavioral analysis of management and investors is based on the book Value Investing by James Montier (2010) and Behavioral Corporate Finance by Hersh Shefrin (2007). Various theories are applied to form a structured and properly assessed, quantitative and qualitative valuation of Northland Resources. This report follows a case study approach in the way the research is focused on the iron ore market and the valuation of Northland Resources.
1.5 Delimitation
The cutoff date for this report is set to 08:00 am Central European Time, on July 20th, 2012. No information published after this date will be used. The resulting share price from this thesis is to be compared to the current market valuation on July 20th, 2012. A major part of this thesis will be to research the iron ore market. The iron ore market is a subject that could deserve a thesis by itself. Therefore the extent of researching the iron ore market will be focused on the price setting mechanism of supply and demand for price forecasting.
Resources could be selling-biased to present a favorable story of Northland Resources (Shefrin, 2007). The quantitative data obtained in annual reports, industry reports, and statistics is less likely to be at risk of misinterpretation because of its validation by independent accountants. The sources of major research institutes for the iron ore market is also less likely to be at risk of manipulation. Major research institutes are large organizations with a credible reputation.
11
full ownership of the Barsele and Kaunisvaara project. The funds obtained were directed to take the project through initial exploration and feasibility study stages. In 2008 Northland switched from the Vancouver stock exchange to the Toronto stock exchange. This was also the year Northland announced the results of the preliminary assessment of the economic viability study for Sahavaara, Tapuli, and Hannukainen deposits (Northland Resources, 2011a).
The senior loan syndication was never finalized in 2011 and Northland received a bridge financing from Standard Bank of South Africa of $50 Million that would be replaced by the final project financing in the first quarter of 2012. On February 2nd, 2012, Northland unexpectedly announced an equity and bond offering. The total amount of $675 Million was directed to ensure the development, construction and completion of the Tapuli mine to December 31st, 2014. The equity and bond offering was $325 and $350 Million respectively. Northland expects to generate sufficient cash flow after 2014 point to service its debt and finance the development of the Sahavaara mine (Northland Resources, 2012a). In early 2012, the construction for the transshipment terminal in Pitkjrvi as well as the Fagernes terminal in Narvik port commenced. Northland took the decision to finance the logistical solution entirely by Northland and not by a joint venture, but will fully outsource the logistical solution to Savage, Peab, and Grieg. On March 19th, 2012 Northland announced the project is on schedule and will be fully operational by the fourth quarter of 2012 with the first shipment in the beginning of 2013 (Northland Resources, 2012a).
The Kaunisvaara area has a long mining history from as early as 1641. The modern prospecting of the iron ore field began by the discovery of ironstone occurrences by geologist V Tanner in
14
1918. Since then it has been various discoveries of iron ore deposits in the Kaunisvaara iron ore area. The ironstone occurrences of the Kaunisvaara Ore field has been described and researched in numerous geologic investigations by the Swedish Geological Survey (SGU) sponsored by LKAB. The Finnish mining company Outokumpu has also explored parts of the area for iron ore, copper, and gold potential in the mid-1990s. The most extensive exploration was conducted by Anglo American from the year 2000 to when Northland took over the Pajala exploration in 2004. Northland has compiled an extensive database of available historical exploration information for the Kaunisvaara deposits. The mineral reserve is shown in appendix 2.3. This mineral reserve excludes the Pellivuoma deposit due to the lack of economic assessment. The Pellivuoma feasibility study is expected to be released by the second half of 2012 (Northland Resources, 2012l). A mining company needs to obtain three permits in order to start mining operation in Sweden. The three permits are exploitation concession, construction permit, and environmental permit. The Tapuli deposit is fully permitted and the Sahavaara is expected to receive its final environmental permit by the third quarter of 2012. The Pellivuoma deposit has of today no permits. The Tapuli and Sahavaara deposits are classified by the SGU as being of national interest for mineral production. The title of being of national interest could strengthen Northlands future applications for environmental permits and exploitation concessions (Northland Resources, 2012l). The construction of the process plant started in December, 2010 and mining is expected to commence in the 4th quarter of 2012 from the Tapuli deposit. The Sahavaara deposit is planned for mining in 2017. The Pellivuoma deposit is about 15 km from the mill and will be mined in the latter part of the Kaunisvaara project. Pellivuoma is expected to prolong the mine with 10 years at 6 Million ton per annum. The mine will be operated as a conventional open pit mine with truck and shovel operations and state of the art mineral processing techniques. The mineral processing technique involves crushing, grinding, flotation and magnetic separation (Northland Resources, 2012l). The logistical solution of the project is to transport the iron ore with trucks from Kaunisvaara to Svappavaara and from Svappavaara to Narvik with existing railway (see appendix 2.4). The Kaunisvaara project has a potential to produce up to 5 Million ton iron ore concentrate per
15
annum with a 69% Fe content. The product will be sold to steel makers in Europe and Asia. Northland has entered into long term agreements for 100% of the first 7 years of production with Standard Bank Plc, Tata Steel UK Limited and Stemcor UK Limited (Northland Resources, 2012l).. Northland is actively engaging in exploration projects to extend the potential life of mine of Kaunisvaara. The company believes that regardless of good exploration indications, the area is underexplored by too little drilling data. The most advanced exploration object is the Pellivuoma deposit. The ongoing exploration around the Kaunisvaara area currently in the drill testing phase includes Ruutijrvi, Salmivaara, and Karhujrvi. Further exploration results of the drill testing areas may be revealed along with the DFS report for the Pellivuoma deposit in the 4th quarter of 2012 (Northland Resources, 2012l)..
According to Northland the drilling results were promising to increase the resources at depth. (Northland Resources, 2012l) The project is a brownfield project, which means that the area has been mined before. Last time Hannukainen was in operation were during the 1980s by Rautaruukki Oy and is reported to have produced a low grade iron ore of 4.5 Million ton annually. The mine was closed in 1988 after not being profitable enough at the preceding iron ore price (Northland Resources, 2012l).. Northland acquired the deposit in 2005 and has since focused on exploring the area for additional iron, copper and gold reserves. In addition to claims adjacent to the Hannukainen project, the Company holds extensive exploration claims covering the most prospective areas in the Kolari region. The PEA modeled the development of the Hannukainen deposit but did not include any nearby resources. It is anticipated that as the Company identifies suitable adjacent resources, they will be developed to provide additional feed to the processing facility located near the Hannukainen deposit. The PEA indicates that the total project life will be 14 years. However this PEA excludes potential satellite deposits that are currently being explored. The upcoming Hannukainen DFS may reveal substantial new IOCG mineralization reserves. The exploration areas currently in drill testing are Kuervitikko, Rautuvaara, Rautuoja, and Mannakorpi (Northland Resources, 2012l).
Northland has 6 directors and 13 persons in the executive management team according to the June, 2012 company presentation. The management team has extensive expertise in exploration, engineering, development, finance, communications and international business relations. As at the end of the fourth quarter 2011, Northland had 15 full time employees, 18 consultants and 329 contractors. The management team and board of directors are illustrated in appendix 2.6 and 2.7 respectively (Northland Resources, 2012a).
institutional investor that has been invested in Northland in the previous years. The top 15 shareholders own 47.4% according to the June, 2012 presentation. The geographical locations of the participants in the rights issue of 2012 is presented in appendix 2.10. Norway represents 40 percent of the participating shareholders. Northland is followed by 15 analysts as shown in appendix 2.11 (Northland Resources, 2012c). The average target price by analysts is 15.67 NOK. This would be more than a 200 percent up-side to the July 20th, 2012 share price of 5 NOK. (Holter, 2012) Northland has a low concentration of ownership. The dispersion of ownership combined with a low share of insider holdings exacerbates the type 1 agency problem of power between shareholders and management. No single shareholder has a significant influence on Northlands operations. The dispersion of ownership among institutional shareholders reduces the type 2 agency problem between majority and minority shareholders. However, a company without a majority owner has a tendency to make all shareholders weak (Thomsen, 2008). In early 2012 the company issued $350M in corporate bonds. A high level of financial leverage can put pressure on managers to work efficiently to pay off the debt or risk going into bankruptcy. (Thomsen, 2008) The Bond Trustee (Norsk Tillitsmann) control Northlands draw downs of the bond facility based on the independent consultant Turgis Consulting Ltd (Turgis), Turgis is required to ensure that the Kaunisvaara Project passes a defined cost-to-complete test as well as to certify that the project is progressing according to schedule (Northland Resources, 2012j).
Executive Chairman and CEO & President in the previous 3 years is presented in appendix 2.12. Northlands share price has appreciated from 5 NOK in 2009 to peak at 20 NOK in the spring of 2011, and then it fell dramatically during the summer to end the year to about 11 NOK (Northland Resources, 2012b). The option based compensation developed in a similar fashion to the share price. On the other hand the fixed salary increased sharply over the period. Overall the total compensation increased 5.4 percent in the period the share price dropped. In my opinion there is a lack of variability in compensation. Performance based pay should be based on the value added by the management and not the inherent economics of the business. We should consider how much the management improves the underlying economics of the business. Not how much the underlying economics enhances the perceived performance of the management (Buffet, 2009). Once the mine is constructed the stock options will be more sensitive to the iron ore price and less to the contribution by the management. Northlands stock option plan will not be rewarding the management for adding value but rather reward the management based on the inherent economics of the business. The share price has been higher than the weighted average exercise price of the stock options for some time (see appendix 2.13). In the last few years management has been paid very well for their options, but with todays low share price in relation to the weighted average exercise price of the stock options helps to reduce the type 1 agency problem. Lazonick et al. (2000) research concludes that stock option plans might direct management to only focus on profits and forgo important risk measures which can reduce their long term value. Lastly stock option plans increases the inclination to take part in accounting fraud (Shefrin, 2007).
20
Anders Hvide is the executive chairman (see appendix 2.6). Mr. Hvide joined Northland in January, 2009 after serving as a partner and managing director of metals and mining, as well as corporate finance for Pareto Securities A/S. Mr. Hvide has a long history from M&A transactions and corporate advisory services (Northland Resources, 2012a). The President and CEO is Karl-Axel Waplan. Mr. Waplan joined Northland in 2008 and became President and CEO in January, 2010. Previously he was the President and CEO for Lundin Mining from April 2005 to January 2008. In this period he successfully three folded the share price from about 30SEK to 90 SEK (Yahoo Finance, 2012). Mr. Waplan has worked more than 33 years in the mining industry at Boliden, Ferro Alloys & Noble Alloys and among others (Northland Resources, 2012a). Overall the executive management team is highly educated and has an extensive experience from leading international companies. Many have previously worked for Boliden, Lundin Mining, LKAB or other highly prestigious industrial companies (Northland Resources, 2012a).
The audit committees responsibility is to review the internal and external audit process. This includes also Northland whistleblower line for anonymous submission of questionable accounting or auditing matters. Matti Kinnunen is the chairman with Tuomo Mkel and Stuart
21
Pettifor as members. Mr. Kinnunen has extensive experience from the financial industry. Mr. Kinnunen joined the board of Carnegie in 1991 and thereafter served on a number of leading positions. He held the position as chief operating officer for Carnegie from 2003 to 2007 and then deputy CEO of the Carnegie group until they went into bankruptcy in 2008 (Hammar, 2008). The compensation committee responsibility is to supervise the compensation of executive officers and directors. The committee also makes recommendations regarding the stock option plan and bonuses. Tuomo Mkel is the chairman of the committee with Stuart Pettifor and Birger Solberg as members (Northland Resources, 2012a). The Nomination committee responsibility is to propose and review candidates for board positions. Birger Solberg is the chairman of the committee with Tuomo Mkel and Stuart Pettifor as members (Northland Resources, 2012a). The environmental, health, and safety (EHS) committee was established in 2011. The main task of the committee is to advise the board of directors and the company on EHS strategy, policies, and programs. The committee should support Northland in developing and implementing best practice EHS standards and systems. Stuart Pettifor is the chairman of the committee with Tuomo Mkel as member (Northland Resources, 2012a). Moreover, the board of directors is characterized as a highly homogenous group in the sense that there are no women and all members has a high level of expertise in the mining and steel making industry.
cause a severe agency problem between shareholders and management. The enormous stock option plan and lack in variability of salaries could be a result of the agency problem. A large stock option plan increases management propensity to act in a fraudulent manner. Moreover the management team and board of directors have a high level of expertise.
23
3.1
Commodity prices
The performance of an investment in a commodity stock is dependent on the underlying commodity price which is driven by the fundamental supply and demand story of the commodity. Jim Rogers (2004) argues that the twentieth century has experienced three long commodity boom periods 19061923, 19331953, 19681982, the average period lasted a little more than 17 years. The current boom in commodities started with the new millennium. In order to estimate the future iron ore price, we need to understand the commodity cycle of boom and busts.
3.2
Commodity Cycles
Commodity cycles could either be supply driven or demand driven. A supply (demand) driven boom is caused by a change in supply (demand). A change in supply could be caused by either a physical constraint where deposits become depleted or technological innovations which allows for higher production. A change in demand occurs when there is a higher or lower need for a commodity (Schumpeter, 1934). The start of a commodity cycle is characterized as a period with a long period of historically low commodity prices. The first signal of an emerging commodity boom is declining inventories. If supply is not steadily increasing at the same rate as demand, then supply will not match demand which would lead to higher prices. (Rogers, 2004) This is called the displacement period and is recognized by investors seeking to profit from new opportunities (Montier, 2010). During this period demand exceed supply and extraction for a commodity is forced on to the less productive margins and thereby setting a higher price floor for a commodity (Schumpeter, 1934). High commodity prices encourage investors to invest in mining and drilling projects. The boom generally ends after discoveries of new reserves and new mines coming online leading to a
24
higher supply capacity. A clear sign that the boom period ended is a buildup in inventories. The resulting bust is associated with declining prices and extermination of inefficient projects. (Rogers, 2004)
25
current commodity boom and the one in the 1970s is that the current one is demand driven and the previous boom was supply driven. U.S. investors were too distracted by their own booming economy and stock market in the years leading up to the current boom in prices. There was very little money allocated in increasing productive capacity of natural resources. The 1990s was characterized with high stock market returns and low commodity prices. Then things changed with the start of the new millennium. The emerging markets transformation created a high demand for commodities. The boom in commodity prices is due to a combination of rapid industrialization, urbanization, a higher commodity intensity of growth, and rapid population growth. The slow supply adjustment to rapidly increasing demand is also a main reason for higher commodity prices (Rogers, 2004). The Chinese dominance in world commodity markets is shown in Appendix 3.1. Between 2000 and 2010, China imports of iron ore in value terms increased 42.5 times (Anderlini, 2012). The iron ore price has seen a percentage increase that beat most other commodities. The iron ore price has surged around 1000 percent, while gold has increased by around 400 percent in the last decade (Index Mundi, 2012). This has made many mining companies enormously profitable. The earnings trend for iron ore is illustrated in appendix 3.2. This is a worrying trend that suggests an iron ore price bubble has emerged. The earnings deviation from the trend is shown in appendix 3.3. This shows that the recent earnings deviation from the trend is larger than for the previous commodity bubble (Montier, 2010). Unfortunately, this data is only for the period up to 2007. There was a slight drop in 2008, but most commodity prices continued to reach highs never seen before in 2011. Another reason to believe there is a bubble is because of the increase in inventory since 2008. The Bloomberg China Inventory Index has doubled since 2008 (see appendix 3.4). The total amount of iron ore in Chinese inventory surpassed 100 Million ton in June, 2012 (China Daily, 2012). A reason for this could be that investors and steelmakers anticipate they can sell the iron ore for a price higher in the future. In spite of the worrying scenario analysts and investors believe the growth will continue. The P/E multiple cyclically adjusted on past earnings is depicted in appendix 3.5. The current price implies very high growth rates for the foreseeable future (Montier, 2010).
26
The emerging markets demand for commodities are most notably India and China. These two countries have undergone a transformation to open up to the world economy. The transformation of these emerging markets has made many people to believe that there is a new paradigm emerging (Farooki and Kaplinsky, 2012).
27
industry is a clear indicator that the iron ore price has been low for a long time prior to the current boom period. On the other hand the steel industry is highly fragmented, where the top three producers only account for 12% of world production (see appendix 3.6). Historically the price for iron ore has been set in secret meetings between the top producers and steelmakers, where the first agreement each year was set as a benchmark for the rest of the industry to follow throughout the year. The benchmark price was adjusted for differences in the quality of the ore and freight costs. This historical monopolistic pricing system introduced in the 1960s has come to an end. The iron ore was the last critical commodity whose price was set by annual negotiations. Similar changes in pricing power have occurred during the last commodity boom for crude oil and aluminum in the 1970s and early 1980s respectively. (Blas, 2009a) The move to spot pricing for iron ore has positively impacted producers. An iron ore price chart for 30 and 10 years are illustrated in appendix 3.7 and appendix 3.8 respectively. Near the end of the benchmark pricing era, China overtook Japan as the key price negotiator for the worlds steel mills. Today the China Iron and Steel association would probably have hoped to preserve the benchmarking system. China is the largest importer of iron ore in the world, the rejection of accepting a benchmark deal in 2009, led to higher prices (Blas, 2010). The price setting moved swiftly into quarterly contracts and spot prices. The spot market has gained increased importance since 2009, as the major suppliers have decided to sell an increasing share of their production at the spot price. The change of the pricing system has changed in the favor of the miners considering the large price appreciations after the shift (Northland Resources, 2012).
Hematite has a red crusty color and is most common in the Southern Hemisphere in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, and the Carajas region of Brazil. Other large areas of hematite could also be found in Africa. Hematite has a high Fe grade of between 40-70 percent. This ore is typically not rigorously processed further. Hematite can be mined by using a simple crushing and screening process before it is shipped off to a steel producer. This kind of ore is called DSO or direct shipping ore. The simple mining procedure also results in a higher degree of impurities, which can be costly for steel producers to remove. The final end product is either in the forms of lumps or fines with iron ore content between 40-70 percent Fe. The lumps are larger than the fines and are preferred since it can be more easily used in the production of steel. (Duade, 2011). Taconite is by contrast most common in the Northern Hemisphere in the Labrador though in Canada, Northern Sweden, Russia, and China. Taconite has a finely dispersed magnetite with a low Fe grade of about 25-35 percent. Because of the low Fe grade the taconite ore requires rigorous complex processing to create an end product in the form of a magnetite concentrate with 50-70 percent Fe. The magnetite concentrate could be processed further into pellets or sintered pellets. These pellets could in turn be fed into a direct reduced iron (DRI) plant to create a DRI product that could be used for steel making. The positive aspect of taconite is that the final end product is superior to the hematite product with fewer impurities and a higher Fe grade. This final product can receive a price premium when sold both for the quality and the value in use (VIU) (Duade, 2011). Nevertheless it could be very expensive for the mining companies to acquire the equipment and processing facility necessary. Northlands iron ore concentrate will contain a high Fe grade of 69 percent and low impurities (see appendix 3.9). Northlands magnetite concentrate generates heat during oxidation, a favorable feature for pellet producers that reduces pellet plant energy consumption. Northland is likely to receive a premium for both the high Fe content and low impurities. The premium for the 69 percent Fe concentrate has varied from $4 to $7 per percentage above 62 percent Fe in recent years. This premium for low impurities is estimated to be about $5 per ton for Northland. Additionally a high quality concentrate has less waste and thus saves money on freight (Northland Resources, 2012l).
29
30
The monumental challenge preventing iron ore producers to expand production capacity is the construction of logistical infrastructure like ports and railways. Other challenges include environmental permitting, political risks, and financing. The major iron ore regions for future production capacity are examined in chapter 5.
31
industrialization and urbanization of Chinas economy and their path along the steel intensity curve (Northland Resources, 2012l). The three largest sectors of the Chinese fixed asset investments are manufacturing, real estate and transportation, the only major increase in proportion has been in manufacturing (see appendix 3.16). The manufacturing sector in turn consists of textiles, equipment, and electric machinery (see appendix 3.17). This sector is mainly driven by export-led industrialization (J.P. Morgan, 2012). The financial crisis hurt many countries with a severe recession in 2008. This led to rapid falling exports which China to a great extent depend on by its large manufacturing share. China had to introduce a massive stimulus package to save the economy from a hard fall. The stimulus package included massive investments in infrastructure to build railways, roads and airports (Roubini, 2011). The stimulus package rapidly increased the amount of investments to GDP (see appendix 3.18). Chinas steel production has increased by 230 million tons a year since the 2008 stimulus program was introduced. This is more than 50% increase in total demand and equivalent to nearly 2.5 times the U.S.s annual consumption (Mackenzie, 2012).
32
supplied by Metso and is according to Metso, close to guarantee a 69 percent iron ore product with low impurities (Metso, 2011). A downside risk is if more mining companies upgrade to the latest technology, then the supply of high grade iron ore will increase.
decade as well. The major obstacles of entering the iron ore market is of investments for infrastructure, buildings, and equipments. These can be very large, but can be overcome by financing. Therefore access to finance is a vital need to enter the iron ore market. The access to iron ore reserves is also a barrier to enter the iron ore market. The size of Northlands reserves in comparison to a sample of mining companies is illustrated in appendix 3.21. The relatively small reserves with a low quality make Northland an unattractive takeover target.
3.5.1 Logistics
The logistical route is completely outsourced to Savage, Peab, and Grieg logistics. The current agreement reaches to the year 2021 and is worth about $900M USD in total. The transportation for Northlands iron ore concentrate will start by trucks on the 150km roadway from the Kaunisvaara mine to a transshipment terminal in Pitkjrvi outside the town Svappavaara (see appendix 2.4). The railroad transportation and construction is outsourced to Peab. The trucks are expected to be 90 ton trucks with a capacity of 55 ton net load. The trucks are expected to be going day and night all year around. The trucks will leave in a 5 to 7 minutes interval, once Northland reaches full production in 2015 (Northland Resources, 2012m). The iron ore will then be loaded on to trains in Pitkjrvi. These trains will then transport the iron ore on the 226 km Malmbanan railway from Pitkjrvi to the Fagernes terminal in Narvik, Norway. Three trains per day are expected to go between Pitkjrvi and the port in Narvik. After upgrading the railway Green Cargo have capabilities to run four trains per day with 40 rail wagons per train. (Northland Resources, 2012m).
36
The Fagernes terminal will de-ice the concentrate, and then it will be stored and reloaded on to cape size vessels for shipment to Europe or China. The Narvik port is ice-free all year around. The Fagernes terminal is operated by Grieg logistics and has a capacity of 10+ MT per annually. Both the Pitkjrvi and the Fagernes terminal is currently under construction by Peab and are expected to be completed in the 4th quarter of 2012 (Northland Resources, 2012l).
3.5.2 Operations
The mining operation is conducted through over 40 subcontractors on site. The first step to extract the iron ore is by traditional open pit, drill and blast techniques. The iron ore will then be crushed and screened before entering the process plant. The processing will be conducted with the use of a comprehensive equipment package from Metso. The processing is a complex operation with processing is primary and secondary grinding, and magnetic separation. The secondary grinding equipment will include Metsos popular Vertimill vertical grinding mills. A total of 7 Vertimills will make Kaunisvaara, the mining site in the world with the most vertical grinding mills. The mining equipment will ensure a high quality product according to Metso (Metso, 2011).
Strengths Premium product Management has a high level of expertise Good access to a skilled workforce Low political risks Off-take agreements Financing in place Near production start (Q4, 2012) Confident logistical solution by Grieg, Savage, and Peab State of art processing equipment
Weaknesses Relatively low reserve makes it an unlikely takeover target No futures market for hedging the iron ore price. Long and complex logistical route. Complex operations Management possibly influenced by behavioral biases. Poorly aligned incentives Dispersed Shareholders Low insider ownership
Opportunities Could become more environmentally friendly and save money on fuel for truck transportation by using electrified trucks. Low bargaining power of buyers; well sought after product. A depreciating Norwegian Krona.
Threats Highly competitive industry; more producers seeking to produce a premium product. Not an adequate high barrier to enter the iron ore market Potential bubble in the iron ore price. Threat of substitutes; more steel being recycled Hazardous weather conditions High bargaining power of suppliers; high exit barriers. An appreciating Norwegian Krona.
38
4. Chapter IV Budgeting
This chapter is focused on examining the iron ore price structure and Northlands cost structure. Northlands cost structure consists mainly of operating expenditures, capital expenditure, depreciation, financial income and financial expenses. The final section of this chapter will be a risk analysis to derive an appropriate discount rate reflecting the riskiness of the companys business activities.
The sales expenditure was $752,000 in 2011 (Northland Resources, 2012a). I expect the sales expenditure to be slightly less than $1,000,000 annually for future years. I therefore assume a sales expenditure for future years to be $1,000,000 annually. The general & administrative expenditures are likely to fluctuate in the future as salaries, wages and performance based payments change. I expect a drop in general & administrative expenses for 2013 due to a lower need for consulting services in the future. I estimate an average general and administrative expense of $14,000,000 annually for future years. I assume the other operating expenditures to be stable at $9,000,000 annually.
I expect that the company will issue new bonds to replace the current bonds. These new bonds could have a slightly lower interest rate due to the de-risking of the companys business activities and an improved market climate. I assume an interest rate of 10% after 2017 and an issue cost of $28,000,000 for the new bonds in 2017.
42
management judgment. The chapter ended with a risk analysis to obtain an appropriate discount rate. In my option the discount rate for the cash flow to equity has to be 20 percent to satisfy investors risk tolerance. These inputs will serve as a foundation for my valuation in chapter 6.
44
5. Chapter V Forecasting
This section will focus on the fundamental factors affecting the iron ore price, namely the supply and demand. The supply and demand forecasting will rest on the future consumption and production trends globally. These trends will then be analyzed to estimate an approximate outlook for the iron ore price.
5.2.1 Europe
The only notable iron ore region in Europe is in Northern Scandinavia (see appendix 5.1). The main port for iron ore shipment is the port of Narvik. The port of Narvik is a deep water port that is ice free year around and suitable for cape size vessels. The railway for iron ore transportation is the 500km long Malmbanan that reaches from the port of Narvik in Norway. The type of iron ore mined in this region is mostly the taconite type that after processing produces a high quality
45
magnetite concentrate or pellet. The companies with a current or potential production of above 2 Million ton annually are presented in appendix 5.2. The largest iron ore company is the Swedish state owned company LKAB. They control the largest iron ore reserve in Scandinavia, which is about 1,500-2,000 Million ton of 45 percent Fe. LKAB produce the majority of the iron ore in the Scandinavian region of about 26 Million ton annually, still far from the 35 Million ton they produced by the end of the last commodity boom period. LKAB is also the company with the longest history of mining with an establishment in the 1890s (LKAB, 2012). The other two companies with a current production are Northern Iron and Rana Gruber. Northland Resources and Nordic Iron Ore are two mining companies with plans to be in production in the near term. The Scandinavian total production has a potential to double by 2020, from todays 30 Million ton to 60 Million ton annually. All companies except Nordic Iron ore have secured financing for startup of production. The major bottleneck for higher production in the region is the Malmbanan railway, which is currently being upgraded.
46
mining company with a large production in the U.S through joint ventures. The company has also extensive exploration projects in Canada. Considering the development projects in North America, the region has the potential to more than double their production of iron ore by 2020. The most interesting mining companies in development are Adriana Resources and New Millennium Corporation. Combined their iron ore resources reaches over 10 Billion tons of iron ore. However the geographical locations of the mining projects require colossal investments in logistical infrastructure. Adriana Resources is estimated to invest a total of $12.9 Billion in capital expenditures and would then still need to transport their iron ore 850 Km on railway. On the other hand their operating expenditures would amount to only about $30/ton. Adriana Resources has no project finance in place, but are backed by the Chinese Steel and Iron Corporation. The New Millennium Corporation is situated slightly better, but considering the limitations of the Canadian railways the company considers building a 600 Km slurry pipeline to the nearest port. The pipeline could make the New Millennium Corporation have the lowest operating expenditure in North America, less than $30/ton. Then again the capital expenditures are estimated to $4.4 Billion. They have no project finance in place for this project, but have successfully financed another mining project through a joint venture with Tata Steel.
Vale is a diversified mining company. Besides iron ore, Vale produces nickel, coal, copper, potash, and energy. Currently with the high iron ore price they receive 68 percent of their revenues and a return on equity of 28.2 percent from their iron ore mining. Since the start Vale has up to this year produced a total of 5 Billion ton iron ore (see appendix 5.6). Their current reserves of iron ore are up to 17 Billion ton. Vale has a capital investment budget of $21.7 Billion to construct new processing facilities, railway and port infrastructure. Vale put considerable efforts on low costs and carbon emissions to create long term value. The main challenge is like many other mining companies the logistical infrastructure, except from that the government of Brazil has raised corporate income taxes to 39 percent (Vale, 2012). This poses a risk for shareholders to profit from investments in Vale.
5.2.4 Australia
Australia produces the most iron ore with the highest quality in the world. The largest iron ore deposits are found in the Pilbara region of Western Australia (see appendix 5.7). The iron is of the direct shipping ore type and vast reserves of several tens of billions tons exist in the area. The Pilbara region is home to the two mining companies with the longest history, namely BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto both founded in the 19th century. Australian mines enjoy a considerable advantage over Brazilian, Canadian, and European mines with their closer proximity to Asia. Currently around $60.8 Billion of investments are planned for new iron ore mines and to expand current capacity. The major challenges are harsh weather conditions and logistical infrastructure. The two largest BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are both diversified mining companies. Due to the high iron ore price, 50 percent of BHP Billitons revenue came from the iron ore business at a 65 percent EBIT margin (BHP Billiton, 2012). Rio Tinto is in same position with a 70 percent of EBITDA margin for its iron ore business (Rio Tinto, 2012). Rio Tinto has exponentially increased production since the year 2000 (see appendix 5.8). Fortescue Metal Group, one of the top ten largest iron ore company in the world is also Australian. Fortescue will commit $1.8 Billion in 2012 to ramp up production to 155 million tons annually by 2014 (Fortescue Metal Group, 2012). The most common bottleneck for Australias iron ore producers are the congested harbors. All the iron ore companies in Australia have fairly easy access to capital and have all
48
committed substantial amounts of money to harbor expansion projects. If all goes as planned the total production will close to double by 2020 (see appendix 5.9).
5.2.5 Africa
Africa is the big new player in global iron ore supply. Africa is undergoing massive exploration and the reserves found up to now are mainly of high-quality DSO hematite ore that are estimated to match those in Australia and Brazil. The total iron ore reserves in Africa are estimated to 34.9 Billion ton of hematite and 17.3 Billion ton of magnetite. Over 200 iron ore projects across the African continent have been identified. The biggest impediment for mining companies in Africa is access to capital, to build infrastructure (Hurst, 2011). Traditionally, Africa has never been seen as a major competitor in the iron ore market. Typically African projects require huge capital investments to bring them to market. On the other hand many African projects will have a very low cash cost. For a long time Western banks have been reluctant to finance these projects because of high political and economic risks. The current boom in commodity prices is likely to make African iron ore projects more attractive in terms of risk and reward for investors (Hurst, 2011). Recently there has been a surge of Chinese investments. The Chinese government seems to be the most willing to take the risks in Africa. Chinese direct investments to Africa have increased 19-fold, from $491.2 Million in 2003 to $9.3 Billion in 2009. Chinas Ministry of Commerce announced in 2012 that over the next five years it will encourage direct investments globally to increase to $560 Billion. Today about 14 percent of the total Chinese direct investments are allocated to Africa. If this persists then Africa can expect $78.4 Billion in investments over the next five years. Then this would be sufficient to meet the $52-54 billion capital expenditures reported by RBC Capital Markets (2011) to develop 32 mines across the continent by 2016. China has established strong ties with many African countries through its non-interference approach to international engagement. This state-level engagement provides assurance to Chinas state-owned investors and banks when making large capital investments in operationally risky projects (Hurst, 2011).
49
According to Luke Hurst (2011) analysis of 17 mines African iron ore projects, production has the potential to add 481 Million ton annually to the world iron ore market by 2018. This figure is aligned with estimates by RBC Capital Markets (2011) that 475575 Million ton annually of iron ore export capacity will become available from Africa by 2016. This analysis by RBC Capital Markets is based on data from 32 mines. Another analysis by Ocean Equities (2011) based on 16 mines concluded that African production capacity could reach 300 Million ton annually by 2018. My analysis of the African continent based on reports by Hurst (2011), RBC Capital Markets (2011), and Ocean Equities (2011) conclude that Africa iron ore production could potentially reach 585 Million ton annually by 2020 (see appendix 5.10). Most disclosed estimates of operating costs for west and central African iron ore projects are low. In view of the fact that the high grade ore requires little processing, west and central African iron ore projects will have operating costs on average including shipping of around $50-80 per ton.
5.2.6 Asia
The major iron ore producing countries in Asia are mainly China and India. China is the largest producer of iron ore in the world with 1070 Million ton annually (U.S. Geological Survey, 2012). The problem is that the Chinese iron ore is of poor quality and high operating costs. The equivalent amount of a high iron ore quality would be about 350 Million ton annually. The iron ore industry in China is highly fragmented with over 5,000 iron ore mines. Many of them produce less than a hundred thousand tons annually, while the largest iron ore mine in China produce less than 5MT annually. A large share of iron ore mining is conducted through underground operations with Fe grades less than 20 percent (Raw Materials Group, 2012). The size of the Chinese iron ore reserves is not publicly known. India is the third largest exporter of iron ore after Australia and Brazil. This might change due to Indias increasing domestic iron ore consumption and taxing of iron ore exports. The largest reserves in India are predominantly located in the countrys north and west side, consequently making transportation costly to steel mills. Most steel mills are located mainly in industrialized coastal southern provinces.
50
The Chinese production has undergone an exponential expansion phase from producing 224 Million ton annually in the year 2000 to producing 1070 Million ton annually in 2010. This production is at very high operating costs and of low quality. I expect China to focus more on costs and quality over the next ten years, while increasing investments in Africa to extract enormous volumes. I do not expect iron ore production to increase significantly in China over the next decade. In my calculation I adjust the amount of Chinese iron ore production to one of high quality. My projections up to 2020 for China and India are that they will increase their production capacity by a rate of 5% annually (see appendix 5.11).
state of the sectors, that achieved high investments in fixed assets over the last decade to estimate potential investments for the future. The sectors with a high degree of investment in fixed assets are the transportation, real estate, and manufacturing sectors.
This is in line with JP Morgans predictions that real estate investments would decline hefty in 2012 (see appendix 5.15). In March 2012, the central government approved a budget of $70 Billion for social housing. This could to some degree offset the 2012 downtrend in real estate investments. The social housing investment is not a comforting sign either; it will be less than the level of 2011 (see appendix 5.16) (Mackenzie, 2012b).
the manufacturing sector. Chinese experts are expecting consumption to rise from the current 35.1 percent to around above 50 percent of GDP by 2015 (APCO, 2010). A swift restructure is likely to result in high unemployment as the population takes time to adjust and in turn a lower GDP growth. High unemployment and social unrest is the last thing the Chinese central planners would like to experience. Chinas GDP growth rate target for 2012 is set at 7.5 percent. This growth is said to ensure employment levels remain on target for the government to reach its 2020 GDP-per-capita goal. The previous target of 8 percent has been greatly exceeded by actual growth since the target was set in 2005. A lower target rate would give officials room to set in policies that will slowly increase consumption without having to excessively focus on high growth targets (APCO, 2010). Minimum wages and increased social safety nets is planned to contribute to social equality by closing the income gap. The separation in quality of life indicators between Chinas urban and rural residents is large. The inequality is a cause of growing social unrest, which is a major problem for the government. Improving the quality of life in rural areas is in turn expected to boost consumption. This restructuring would ultimately create a more lasting transformation that would increase the welfare of the Chinese people and contribute significantly to sustainable global growth according to the IMF (2012). The Chinese composition of GDP growth is expected to change in the future, which would cause a lower iron ore demand and a lower GDP growth. The 13th five year plan is likely to include a significantly lower budget for fixed asset investments.
they will slowly enter an industrialization and urbanization phase similar to China. The stage of India compared to other emerging and developed markets in the steel intensity phase is illustrated in appendix 5.17.
would reasonably assume the world demand growth to be in a range of 3-4 percent. India could potentially pick up a slacking iron ore demand by China in the future. I expect the world demand growth for iron ore to be an average of 3.5 percent per annum up to the year 2020. Based on my forecasting, both my moderate growth and conservative growth scenarios will greatly exceed the probable world demand growth in the period from 2013-2016 (see appendix 5.21). The total surplus in this period is likely to be somewhere between 300-600 Million ton. Today, the price floor for iron ore is set by Chinese high cost producers (see appendix 5.22). The surplus iron ore, predominantly from Australian and African mines would phase out the high cost producers and set a lower iron ore price. I will use my conservative scenario; in this scenario a total of 370.8 Million ton would phase out all Chinese high cost producers by 2017, if world demand growth averages 3.5 percent. I expect this would cause the iron ore price to gradually decline to an average $100/ton by 2016. This would represent a fall of 20 percent from todays price of $125/ton. A sharper drop should not be taken as a surprise. Many of the Chinese iron ore producers are state owned and might still produce at a loss. Another factor to exacerbate the problem would be the large size of inventories in China. These inventories at about 90 Million ton could cause a panic, if sold in a rapid fire sale. The trend for the iron ore price and Fe quality premium is shown in appendix 5.23. This is taken from Northland Resources June corporate presentation (2012) and is only based on data from January, 2010, when the iron ore price has been high. The Fe quality premium is today at $4 per percentage above 62 percent, this would give Northland a total of $28/ton. The iron ore price has dropped 30 percent since the peak in 2011. The premium is more volatile and has dropped 60 percent in the same period. Therefore I expect the premium to gradually decline to $16/ton by 2016. This would represent a decline by 40 percent or twice the expected percentage fall in the iron ore price. The value in use premium is today $5/ton (Northland Resources, 2012c). I expect this premium to remain at $5/ton, assuming they can produce the promised quality. Northland has signed off take agreements with Standard bank, Stemcor, and Tata Steel. It is however unclear how much will be sold to Europe and China. The Freight rate for cape size
56
vessels from Narvik to China is estimated to be $36/ton according to Northlands calculations (Northland Resources, 2012c). I will assume that all production will be sold to China
57
6. Chapter VI Valuation
Previous chapters focus has been to elaborate on supporting arguments for a final valuation of Northland. In this chapter I will combine these arguments to estimate Northlands fair value through an absolute valuation. The absolute valuation will be based on a DCF methodology of free cash flow to equity described by the book Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation written by Stephen Penman (2010).The estimates will be taken from the budgeting and forecasting sections of this thesis. The final part of this chapter will be to compare Northland to a similar mining company, to arrive at a relative valuation.
58
6.1.2 Assumptions
Production will start on time with the specified product quality. Northland will receive environmental permit for Sahavaara. Northland will receive permit to use 90 ton gross weight trucks. Hannukainen will be operational by 2017, financed by internal cash flows. No value assigned to Hannukainen gold and copper production. Railway to mine by 2021. Production will remain stable at 7 million ton per annum past 2021. Iron ore price will gradually decline to settle at $100/ton by 2016. Price premiums will decline to $16/ton for Fe quality premium by 2016. Value in Use premium will be stable at $5/ton. Freight costs will be stable at $36/ton, assuming all production will be sold to Asia. Capex and Opex will be as budgeted. Sales, General and administrative expenses will be stable at $24,000,000. A NOK/USD exchange rate of 5.75. Depreciation: 5 percent straight line. New corporate bonds will be issued at a 10 percent interest rate and an 8 percent issuance cost, when the current corporate bonds expire. Stable tax rate of 28 percent. Cost of equity of 20 percent. No changes in net working capital.
6.1.3 Valuation
The valuation is presented in Appendix 6.1. Northlands plan is to deliver 1.4 Million ton iron ore concentrate in 2013 and in sequence increase to reach 4.4 Million ton annually by 2017. I have no reason to believe any production increase, once Northland reaches full production of 7 Million ton per annum by 2021. This is supported by the logistical solution of PEAB, Savage, and Grieg (Northland Resources, 2012c). These companies give Northland a credible position to meet their goal of delivery. The truck contract is valid for 9 years to 2021. I assume that a
59
railway will be operation to the mine by 2021 that would allow 5 Million ton to be mined annually from the Kaunisvaara project. The company has not taken an investment decision for the Hannukainen project. This will likely occur after taking the result from the coming DFS study into consideration. Northlands tentative plan is to have Hannukainen in operation by 2016, but in my valuation I have considered Hannukainen to be in operation by 2017. This will enable Northland to finance Hannukainens capital expenditures through internal cash flows. The capital expenditures will be paid during the construction of the mine, which is estimated to take two years. Northlands tentative plan is for Hannukainen to produce 2 Million ton per annum. Hannukainen will also produce copper and gold as a byproduct. I have chosen to exclude the copper and gold production in my valuation due to the high level of uncertainty. The valuation results with a market value of equity of $ 195M. In Norwegian Kronor this is equal to NOK 1,121M using a NOK/USD exchange rate of 5.75. Finally the share price is calculated by dividing the market value of equity with the number of shares outstanding. The resulting share price is equal to 2.18 NOK (see appendix 6.2). This would represent a 56.4 percent drop from July 20th, 2012, share price of 5 NOK. My valuation shows that Northland will show a loss for 2013. The first profitable year for Northland would be 2014, where Northland would make 0.3 NOK in earnings per share. Todays market value of 5 NOK would give it a forward P/E ratio of 16.67 on 2014 earnings. In my scenario Northland will enjoy high profit margins in the year 2014 and 2015 (see appendix 6.3). However as we know companies without a significant competitive advantage will not be able to maintain high margins over a long period of time. Northland will be able to sustain their business even with a lower iron ore price of $100/ton at a net profit margin of about 10 percent. Nevertheless if the iron ore price would fall to $80/ton due to a hard landing by China, then Northland will have a very difficult time to pay interest payments on their bonds and a bankruptcy should not be ruled out.
60
6.2.1Dannemora Mineral
Dannemora is a junior mining company in Sweden with startup of production in 2012. The expected production for 2012 is 0.5 Million ton, 1 Million ton for 2013, and subsequently it will increase to reach 2 Million ton per annum by 2016. Dannemora produces lumps and fines of 55 and 50% Fe content respectively with no value in use features and will therefore sell at a discount to the 62% reference price. The operating cost is estimated to be about $30/ton, which is considerably lower than Northlands. The life of mine is of today only expected to be 15 years,
61
significantly lower than Northland. The situation near Stockholm with sales to Europe grants low freight rates. The small size and lower complexity of operations would reasonable give Dannemora a lower characteristic risk. The NPV for Dannemora is calculated in the same fashion as for Northlands Kaunisvaara NPV with a reference price of $120/ton. The Dannemora NPV is estimated to be $416M after tax and financing. The current market capitalization for Dannemora is $97M. The market capitalization divided by the NPV equals 0.23. Northlands Kaunisvaara NPV is $800M and the market capitalization is $350M. The market capitalization divided by the NPV equals 0.43 for Northland. This is considerably higher because of the better growth prospects for Northland. The NPV for Hannukainen is $471M based on conservative price estimates in the PEA study. Northlands market capitalization divided by the total NPV of Kaunisvaara and Hannukainen equals 0.275. This is still higher than Dannemoras MCAP/NPV. In order for Northland to be priced in the same level as Dannemora, the NPV for Hannukainen would have to be $721M. An NPV of $721M is not unlikely to be announced in the upcoming DFS for Hannukainen, if Northland decides to use the same level of reference prices as for Kaunisvaara NPV.
62
63
The final DFS study for Hannukainen is set to be released in the 3rd or 4th quarter of 2012. The company has invested a substantial amount in exploration around the Hannukainen area. The previous PEA study granted a positive NPV for Hannukainen. The price estimates used in this calculation was conservative compared to the Kaunisvaara DFS. The NPV has the potential to double by only using higher price estimates. On the other hand, my valuation of Northland in comparison to Dannemora showed that a doubling of NPV could already be priced in. Lower operating costs could be possible by either a lower fuel price or a different transportation method. A railway or a slurry pipeline could lower the operating costs, but are not likely to be constructed in the short term; the truck transportation contract is valid to 2021. Supply interruptions could possibly sustain a high iron ore price. African iron ore are in particular exposed to political uncertainties. Vale of Brazil has encountered hardship from environmental protection agencies. Stricter environmental requirements in many countries could limit the expansion of many iron ore producing companies. A demand shock that would increase the demand for iron ore could be caused by a new stimulus package by China. China needs high GDP growth to ensure social stability. A significant drop in GDP growth could escalate the governments intensions to introduce another stimulus package. Conversely, another stimulus package could prove to be unsustainable and will only intensify a coming downturn. Another source of greater demand is from India. India has shown a willingness to move towards a higher degree of fixed asset investments. This is could act as a cushion to prevent the iron ore price from falling rapidly.
64
A commitment by the Chinese government to restructure the economy could significantly lower the demand for iron ore. Further investment could be very costly and the government might not be willing to generate GDP growth at any cost. China will go through a leadership change in 2013. The commitment to the restructuring by the next central planner is highly uncertain. My forecasting is based on a conservative scenario for future production potential. In this scenario I assume that only half of the planned future production will be attained. This could prove to be an overly conservative scenario and cause a severe drop in the iron ore price. In my valuation I assumed that Hannukainen would be financed through internal cash flows. A favorable DFS on Hannukainen could make the management more inclined to invest in Hannukainen before a potential drop in commodity prices. This would pressure the shareholders by another massive rights issue to finance the capital expenditures of about $400M. The logistical solution with trucks and trains is another worrying factor. The road is in an immediate need for improvements. The work to improve the road is currently undertaken, but the road will need a constant maintenance once production has started. The weather in Northern Sweden could also lead to greater than expected interruptions in delivering the iron ore.
65
Northland is using state of the art equipment to produce their iron ore of the highest quality. The equipment supplier Metso has closed to guaranteed the product quality. I do not think we should take the product quality for granted. Metso holds no responsibility that the mine will produce iron ore of highest quality. The planned quality requires a rigorous and complex production process and not that many mines have aimed to produce this high quality from the very start. No assurance is given that the anticipated tonnages and grades will be achieved (Northland, 2012l). The risk for higher operating expenditures could materialize if the oil price increases or the road needs more than expected improvements. The Hannukainen preliminary study showed a positive NPV of $421M. There is no assurance that the upcoming DFS will verify the PEA results. The Hannukainen DFS has been postponed for over a year since the original release date. Northland wrote the following in the equity prospectus released in February 2012: A delay in finalizing the DFS could also mean, due to changes beyond the control of the Group, that it is no longer viable to open new mining operations. (Northland Resources, 2012l) The stock option plan combined with a high degree of agency problem between shareholders and management increases the propensity to commit accounting fraud.
7.2 Recommendation
Northlands profit margin is likely to be high in the short term, but the iron ore mining industry is like any other competitive industry. I do not consider Northland to have an adequate competitive advantage with their high quality iron ore concentrate to maintain a high profit margin when new supply enters the market. The Chinese growth cannot go on forever. This reminds me of what one famous economist once said: If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.- Herbert Stein. (Stein, 1997) Northland may make you quickly rich or poor, but would not be recommended for long term wealth accumulation. In the long term the downside risks outweigh the upside risks and
66
considering humans belief system of overconfidence, optimism, and wishful thinking investors might be in for a real disappointment. Personally, I would not touch it even if I wore an hazmat suit. For long term value creation I would recommend the two diversified mining companies BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, because of their close proximity to Asia and that they are more cost conscious and positioned for long term value creation throughout commodity cycles.
67
they would receive a permit for 170 ton trucks (Northland Resources, 2010d). The stock market reacted negatively despite a positive NPV in the DFS study, the stock dropped by 16 percent to 14.5NOK. The year ended with Northland completing a rights issue of 250M USD at 13.5 NOK and started the construction of the Kaunisvaara mine (Northland Resources, 2010f).
Shortly thereafter in May, the company updated their Kaunisvaara DFS by doubling the NPV. The stock rose about 8%. The doubling of NPV was a result of raising the reference price from $101/ton to $137/ton FOB price. This was supported by an analysis made from the Raw Materials Group, an independent consulting agency where Karl-Axel Waplan is a director. This DFS update also anticipated a joint venture for the logistical solution (Northland Resources, 2011e).
69
Unfortunately the summers economic turmoil made the stock drop astonishingly 38 percent. The drop was further exacerbated by a fall in the iron ore price, the stock reached a bottom of slightly below 6 NOK in November. Despite a fall in the iron ore price, people were still optimistic about Northland Resources. Carnegie issued a buy recommendation with a target price of 92 NOK based on a discounted cash flow analysis in September. The Swedish Newspaper Affrsvrlden issued a buy recommendation in October. Their main reason was considering Chinas strong demand for commodities (Elofsson, 2011). Like most valuations of Northland the recommendation is to buy, but is also commonly associated with a high risk rating. The three lead banks for the senior loan syndication where all severely affected by the financial turmoil during the summer. Karl-Axel Waplan was interviewed by the Swedish National Radio on October 20th concerning the senior loan. Karl-Axel Waplan first acknowledged that the company would need a financing solution in place by the first quarter of 2012. Then the interviewed unfolded following: Karl-Axel Waplan We are currently negotiating and discussing the final syndication with these banks and they confirm their interest and their willingness to make this financing. We have no reason to doubt it because they drive the project forward and will syndicate with other banks at present so I have no reason to doubt it The Interviewer - What would happen if one of these banks goes bankrupt? Karl-Axel Waplan Well, then there are other banks that have shown interest in the project so I believe there are other banks that we can count on in that case. The Interviewer What do you think the risk is that you are without these financiers? Karl-Axel Waplan That I consider to be extremely small today, if not to say entirely nonexistent. (Martinsson, 2011) Despite these optimistic statements, the stock dropped 6.1 percent on the day of this interview.
stakeholders with the best insight into the company and its projects. The average analyst target price of Northland was 21.47 NOK on January 4th. That would mean a 154% price increase from the price of 8.46 NOK (Sderlind, 2012). On January 10th SEB organized an investor seminar with Northland Resources among other companies. Karl-Axel Waplan confirmed that the project is on time and budget, but most importantly reiterated confidence in financing. On January 23rd, the Swedish newspaper Veckans Affrer issued a buy recommendation with a target price of 15 NOK. The main reason was that the probability of a price fall in iron ore that would make Northlands operations unprofitable should be viewed as very low (Karstrm, 2012). Karl-Axel Waplan expressed his concern about a continued fall in iron ore price in the newspaper, Privata Affrer: It has to occur a complete stop in China, for us to be at risk- Karl-Axel Waplan, (Karstrm, 2012) Anders Hvide was interviewed by the business news network in Canada on January 24th. Mr. Hvide was asked about the financing that the network estimated to be $500M. Mr. Hvide commented that the financing would be not all equity by all means (Business News Network, 2012). The stock reached 11.45 NOK on February 2nd, when the stock was abruptly stopped from trading. The inability of Northland to obtain financing from the syndication of banks in the economic climate forced them to execute an enormous stock and bond issuance of $675M in total, $350M in bonds and $325M in Equity (Northland Resources, 2012m). The share price has declined to 5 NOK as of July 20th, 2012.
71
8.2.2 Optimism
Northland Resources investment in Pajala has generated great optimism and people have been given a hope for the future. It has been described as the most revolutionizing investment in Pajala for the last 100 years (Brobck, 2011). Mining operations around the world has fueled optimism in the current commodity boom. Excessive optimism by management and investors can lead to bad decision making by excessive risk taking. One classic sign of excessive optimism is the level of mergers and acquisitions in the industry. Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are often made on the basis of optimistic expectations about the future (Roll, 1993). The level of M&A activity in the mining industry has been measured by Pricewaterhouse Copper (PwC) and is shown in appendix 8.3. The fall in commodity prices in the second half of 2011 did not stop M&A activity and was described by PwC as defying gravity. The year of 2011 was the second busiest year of mining M&A activity in history. The total value of M&A deals in 2011 was $149 Billion, only 2 percent lower than the peak year of 2006. The major difference between the year 2006 and 2011 is that in 2011, there was considerably less canceled M&A deals, as shown in appendix 8.3. A reason for this could be that shareholders of the targeted companies, where more eager to sell or that the shareholders of the acquiring company where more eager to pay a high premium. Excessively optimistic managers will overinvest and underestimate risks and costs. As a result they pursue projects that they perceive to have a positive NPV based on overly optimistic price estimates, but in reality have a negative NPV. Research on the mining industry by Brian W. Mackenzie (1981), shows that the NPV of the average mining project turned out to be negative. Excessively optimistic projects forecasts belong almost entirely from agency conflicts between shareholders and management (Montier, 2010a). Northlands management has shown to constantly be overly optimistic in their projections. The company has failed to achieve the promised goals of the April, 2011 company presentation. In particularly the long promised syndication of the senior loan. Additionally the doubling of the Kaunsvaara NPV by raising the reference price is another sign of over-optimism. The company has promised to deliver the highest quality iron ore in 2013 and that the iron ore price will remain at high levels. There are reasons to believe that the management might disappoint investors again with optimistic goals.
73
8.2.3 Internal vs. External Locus of Control & Self Attribution Bias
Warren Buffet often talks about the importance for management to have an internal locus of control. Management with an internal locus of control believes they are in control of the outcome. When failing they would blame themselves and internal factors in the company for not achieving their goal. These managers are truthful about their mistakes and more likely to learn from them. On the other hand, management with an external locus of control does not believe they can control the outcome of their actions. When failing they blame everyone else and external factors beyond the company control for not achieving their goal. Managers that are not truthful about their mistakes are more likely to lie to themselves about other important things as well. (Buffet, 2009) Managers with an external locus of control are more likely to exhibit the self attribution bias. Management with a self attribution bias will attribute the success to their skills or internal factors, while attributing their failures to someone else or external factors. These managers will resist a low reward for poor performance and seek a high reward for good performance, regardless of whether the performance was due to luck or skills (Buffet, 2009). Moreover the agency problem of weak shareholders magnifies the self attribution bias. (Montier, 2010a) The management of Northland Resources has shown to exhibit the self attribution bias by not commenting of their failures. The management has never admitted any mistakes and said the financial solution is both a good and strong solution for the company (Northland Resources, 2012m). Karl-Axel Waplan was asked in July, 2012, why the share price is low. He answered that it will be higher once the company is in production (Hannu, 2012). The company has weak shareholders that intensify the self attribution bias in the form of the companys gigantic stock option plan, where a maximum of 15 percent of the outstanding shares can be reserved for stock options (Northland Resources, 2011b).
74
8.2.5 Polarization
Many managers like to think they know the best and surround themselves with people who are happy to strengthen their viewpoint (Shefrin, 2007). Then if a CEO is enthused about a thing like continued high iron ore price, both internal staff and external consultants will come up with whatever projections that are necessary to justify the CEOs view point. Only in fairytales are emperors told that they are naked.- Warren Buffett, (Buffett, 2009) Northlands management is in my point of view characterized as a group of highly homogenous experts. This could lead them to reinforce each others belief about continued high iron ore price to end up in an extreme position.
results in a poor capital discipline. The investing public is enthusiastic about it which has resulted in an overvaluation. My analysis of the iron ore price takes fundamental factors of supply and demand into account. However these factors cannot justify a high iron ore price in the future. The large expansion of inventories combined with an unusual large price increase may suggest that investors and steelmakers buy iron ore with the belief that it can be sold for a higher price in the future. As one renowned economist put it If the reason that the price is high today is only because investors believe the price will be higher tomorrow, then a bubble exists.- Joseph, Stiglitz (Stiglitz, 1990) There are good reasons to believe the iron ore price is in a bubble territory. Some of the most common signs of a price bubble are the following: Some people are aware of it. The problem gets worse over time Eventually the problem explodes into a crisis.
Northlands leverage on the Chinese urbanization & industrialization makes it a ticking time bomb in the event of a sharp slowdown. In that event, I would believe the management will confidently state that the price drop is just temporary. Subsequently I would suspect the management to change accounting policies or simply overstate accounting statements. The managements have demonstrated a willingness to fiddle with numbers and a determination to not give up. As one famous investor once said: Managers that always promise to 'make the numbers' will at some point be tempted to make up the numbers." Warren Buffett, Buffett (2009) Earnings contain a large number of highly subjective estimates that could be altered. This could for example be a more aggressive capitalization of costs. This could potentially already be the case as Northland capitalizes most of their exploration costs. Management might change the depreciation costs by changing the estimate of useful asset life. Additionally the other operating asset is an asset that is unexplained in the balance sheet. A substantial unexpected increase in other operating assets should be seen as an early warning signal.
77
In the event of a sharp price decline, the problems would eventually become inevitable to hide and shock remaining investors. The impact of a sharp fall in the iron ore price could result in a crisis of biblical proportions by a large socio-economic impact on the regions of Northern Sweden. Thousands of people are directly or indirectly relying on the current mining renaissance. In a true Graham manner, when I research a companys financial reports, I start by reading on the last page and slowly work my way toward the front. The last page of important information in Northlands annual report is a page concerning forward looking statements. These statements reflect our current belief and are based on currently available information. Accordingly, such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause the Companys actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. We undertake no obligation to update or advice in the event of any change, addition, or alternation to the information contained in this Annual Report, including such forward-looking statements- Northland Resources Annual Report 2011 (Northland Resources, 2011a) Northlands management has shown to form beliefs that are overly optimistic. Beliefs could move iron ore, but the monumental question is whether it will be profitable. Investors too often accept the reality of the world with which they are presented.
78
Reference List
Anderlini, J. (2012) China growth model running out of steam. Financial Times. Retrieved July 20, 2012, from address http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3467d94c-66d1-11e1-863c00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs %2F0%2F3467d94c-66d1-11e1-863c00144feabdc0.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Frereferyned APCO, (2010). Chinas 12th Five-Year Plan; How it actually works and whats in store for the next five years. Retrieved June 25, 2012, from address http://www.apcoworldwide.com/content/pdfs/chinas_12th_five-year_plan.pdf Barberis, N, and Thaler, R. (2002). A Survey of Behavioral Finance. Handbook of the Economics of Finance, 1053-1128. Blas, J. (2009)a. Iron ore pricing emerges from stone age. Financial Times. Retrieved May 22, 2012, from address http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b0580bf6-c220-11de-be3a00144feab49a,s01=1.html#axzz225q1aBST Blas, J. (2009)b. iron ore pricing war. Financial Times. Retrieved July 20, 2012, from address http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3561ce38-b8e7-11de-98ee-00144feab49a.html#axzz22Ub5qn00 Blas, J. (2010). steel prices set to soar after iron ore deal. Financial Times. Retrieved July 20, 2012, from address http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d15d7758-3bad-11df-a4c000144feabdc0.html Blas, J. (2012).Top-grade iron ore prices weaken. Financial Times. Retrieved July 20, 2012, from address http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/de4141ae-c67d-11e1-963a00144feabdc0.html#axzz20bI5w4EF Bloomberg (2012) Data derived from: Iron ore price prediction [Online]. Available at: Bloomberg Database (Accessed: 13 July 2010). Buffett, M,. Clark, D. (2009) Warren Buffett's Management Secrets: Proven Tools for Personal and Business Success. New York: Scribner
79
Business News Network. (2012). Iron Ore in Sweden. Business News Network Video. Retrieved April 5, 2012, from address http://watch.bnn.ca/featured-bin-/clip606343#clip606343 Brobck, E. (2011). Gruvsatsningar ger Pajala tro p framtiden. Vectura. Retrieved April 5, 2012, from address http://www.vectura.se/sv/Om-Vectura/Transportarkitekten-Varkundtidning/Artiklar/Gruvsatsningar-ger-Pajala-tro-pa-framtiden/ China Bureau of Statistics. (2011). China Statistical Yearbook. Retrieved May 27th, 2012, from address http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2011/indexee.htm China Daily. (2012). High inventory levels signal weaker demand. China Daily. Retrieved July 5th, 2012, from address http://www.china.org.cn/business/2012-06/07/content_25586980.htm Dannemora. (2011). Corporate Presentation October 2011. . Retrieved May 25th, 2012, from address http://www.dannemoramineral.se/files/2011-10-06_Red_Eye_Mining_Seminar.pdf Deloitte (2011). Where is Chinas Manufacturing industry going? Deloitte China manufacturing competitiveness study 2011. Dipak, D. (2012). China has 50% share of worlds iron import: Experts. Times of India. Retrieved April 15, 2012, from address http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-0207/international-business/31033716_1_iron-ore-tonnes-china Duade, J. (2011). The Important Factors to Consider When Investing in Iron Ore. Seekingalpha.com. Retrieved July 20, 2012, from address http://seekingalpha.com/article/262764-the-important-factors-to-consider-when-investing-iniron-ore Dyer, G. (2011). China plans airport building spree. Financial times. Retrieved July 20, 2012, from address http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/aa8aa0b8-4013-11e0-811f00144feabdc0.html#axzz22Ub5qn00 Elofsson, J. (2011). Norrlands guld lockar trots hg risk. Affrsvrlden. Retrieved June 5, 2012, from address http://www.affarsvarlden.se/tidningen/article3293616.ece
80
Farooki, M,. and Kaplinsky, R,. (2012) The Impact of China on Global Commodity Prices; The global reshaping of the resource sector. New York: Routledge Geoff, C. (2012). Iron Ore Growth Rests on Chinese Demand. Mineweb. Retrieved July 20, 2012, from address http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page96986?oid=145382&sn=2010+Detail &pid=96986 Guo, K. and NDiaye, P. (2009) Is Chinas Export-Oriented Growth Sustainable? IMF Working Paper, Asia and Pacific Department. Hammar, I. (2008) Frontfigur lmnar Carnegie. Realtid.se. Retrieved July 20, 2012, from addressshttp://www.realtid.se/ArticlePages/200808/13/20080813174111_Realtid718/200808131 74111_Realtid718.dbp.asp Hammar, I. (2010). Jrnmalmskungen. Realtid.se. Retrieved June 5, 2012, from address http://www.realtid.se/ArticlePages/201012/14/20101214163419_Realtid056/20101214163419_R ealtid056.dbp.aspFinancial times/ Hannu, F. (2012). Northlands aktie sjnk. Sveriges Radio. Retrieved July 20, 2012, from address http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=98&artikel=5199490 Hook, L. (2012). Chinas steel appetite set to wane. Financial Times. Retrieved July 20, 2012, from address http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2712469a-6377-11e1-9686-00144feabdc0.html Holter, M. (2012). Her er aksjen som kan stige 190%. Dagens Nringsliv. Retrieved April 10, 2012, from address http://www.dn.no/forsiden/borsMarked/article2364756.ece Hume, N. (2012). Australia lifts iron ore exports forecast. Financial Times. Retrieved July 20, 2012, from address http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5194bd8e-72ff-11e1-ae7300144feab49a.html Hurst, L. (2011). West and Central African Iron Ore: A Lesson in the Contestability of the Iron Ore Market. East Asian Bureau of Economic Research. Canberra, Australia. IMF, (2012). World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund. Washington. DC.
81
IMF. (2008). Commodities Boom; Riding a wave, Retrieved April 5, 2012, from address http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2008/03/pdf/helbling.pdf Index Mundi. (2012). Iron ore monthly price. Retrieved July 20, 2012, from address http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore Jensen, Michael C., and Kevin J. Murphy. (1990) Performance Pay and Top Management Incentives. Journal of Political Economy 98, no. 2: p.225-265, Harvard University Press J.P. Morgan. (2012). Global economic outlook 2012: Lets get cyclical. J.P. Morgan Economic Research, Global Issues. New York Karstrm, J. (2012). Gruv Bolag kan stiga 30 procent. Affrsvrlden.se. Retrieved June 5, 2012, from address http://www.affarsvarlden.se/hem/analyser/article3390604.ece Kuchler, H. (2011). China to build more unprofitable airports. Financial Times. Retrieved July 20, 2012, from address http://tilt.ft.com/#!posts/2011-02/14321/china-build-more-unprofitableairports-2 Lai, L. M. H. (1994) The Norwegian banking crisis: Managerial escalation of decline and crisis, Scandinavian journal of management, 10(4): 397-408 Law, D. (2011). Choo-choo! All aboard the Chinese rail infrastructure express. Financial Times. Retrieved July 20, 2012, from address http://tilt.ft.com/#!posts/2011-01/9746/choo-choo-allaboard-the-chinese-rail-infrastructu Lazonick, W. and OSullivan, M. 2000, Maximizing shareholder value: a new ideology for corporate governance, Economy and society 29, p.13-35. Mackenzie, B. W. (1981) Looking for the Improbable Needle in a Haystack : The economics of Base Metal Exploration in Canada, CIM Bulletin, Volume 74, no. 829, pp. 115-123. Mackenzie, K. (2012)a. Real estate wont be supporting Chinese steel demand much longer. Financial Times. Retrieved June 25, 2012, from address http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/05/22/1009551/real-estate-wont-be-supporting-chinese-steeldemand-much-longer/
82
Mackenzie, K. (2012)b. What flat China steel growth means for iron ore. Financial Times. Retrieved June 25, 2012, from address http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/06/14/1042491/whatflat-china-steel-growth-means-for-iron-ore Mackenzie, K. (2012)c. Chinas post-stimulus metals demand growth could actually be flat. Financial Times. Retrieved June 25, 2012, from address http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/05/09/991781/chinas-post-stimulus-metals-demand-growthcould-actually-be-flat/ Martinsson, M,. (2011) Krisen hotar gruvan. Sveriges Radio. Retrieved June 25, 2012, from address http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=98&artikel=4755972 Metso. (2011). A Mine is Born. Metso Corporate Website. Retrieved May 15th, 2012, from address http://www.metso.com/miningandconstruction/MCTwArticles.nsf/WebWID/WTB-12022422575-88778
Metso. (2012). Annual Report 2011. Retrieved May 27th, 2012, from address http://metso.com/corporation/ir_eng.nsf/WebWID/WTB-120307-2256F7D187/$File/metso_annual_report_2011_english.pdf Mining Journal. (2009). Company Profile. Mining Journal Online. Retrieved May 25th, 2012, from address http://www.mining-journal.com/finance/company-profile-northland-resources Montier, J. (2010a). Value Investing; Tools and Techniques for Intelligent Investing, UK: John Wiley. Montier, J. (2010b) The little book of behavioral investing, UK: John Wiley. Northland Resources. (2010)a. Information circular 2009, Retrieved May 25th, 2012, from address http://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00008250 Northland Resources, (2010)b. SWEDISH GOVERNMENT TO CO-FINANCE RAIL TO NORTHLAND PROJECT AREA. Retrieved May 25th, 2012, from http://northland.eu/enus/investor-relations/press-releases?v=497568
83
Northland Resources, (2010)c. NORTHLAND APPOINTS BANKS FOR PROJECT FINANCING. Retrieved May 25th, 2012, from http://northland.eu/en-us/investor-relations/pressreleases?v=497576 Northland Resources, (2010)d. TECHNICAL REVIEW OF THE KAUNISVAARA IRON PROJECT SWEDEN. Retrieved May 25th, 2012, from http://northland.eu/getmedia/c724203c0a83-485f-a05f-bf7c030cd91f/2010-10-03_Kaunisvaara_43-101.pdf Northland Resources, (2010)e. NORTHLAND STUDIES POSSIBILITY OF USING DEEP WATER PORT. Retrieved May 25th, 2012, from http://northland.eu/en-us/investorrelations/press-releases?v=497537 Northland Resources, (2010)f. NORTHLAND RESOURCES COMPLETES C$256.51 MILLION OFFERING OF SHARES. Retrieved May 25th, 2012, from http://northland.eu/en-us/investorrelations/press-releases?v=497509 Northland Resources. (2011)a. Annual Report 2010, Retrieved April 27th , 2012, from address http://northland.eu/en-us/investor-relations/financials/annual-reports Northland Resources. (2011)b. Information circular 2010, Retrieved May 25th, 2012, from address http://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00008250 Northland Resources, (2011)c. NORTHLAND RECEIVES FINAL CREDIT APPROVAL FOR THE SENIOR LOAN. Retrieved May 25th, 2012, from http://northland.eu/en-us/investorrelations/press-releases?v=497500 Northland Resources, (2011)d. Corporate Presentation April 2011. Retrieved April 27th, 2012, from address http://northland.eu/en-us/media/presentations/corporate-presentation,-april-2011 Northland Resources, (2011)e. TECHNICAL REVIEW IN SUPPORT OF KAUNISVAARA MAY 2011 DFS IS NOW AVAILABLE. Retrieved April 27th, 2012, from address http://northland.eu/enus/investor-relations/press-releases?v=497474
84
Northland Resources. (2012)a. Annual Report 2011. Retrieved April 27th, 2012, from address http://northland.eu/en-us/investor-relations/financials/annual-reports Northland Resources. (2012)b. Information circular 2011. Retrieved May 25th, 2012, from address http://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00008250 Northland Resources. (2012)c. Corporate Presentation June 2012. Retrieved July 5th, 2012, from address http://northland.eu/en-us/media/presentations Northland Resources. (2012)d. Corporate Presentation April 2012. Retrieved July 5th, 2012, from address http://northland.eu/en-us/media/presentations Northland Resources. (2012)e. Corporate Presentation May 2012. Retrieved July 5th, 2012, from address http://northland.eu/en-us/media/presentations Northland Resources. (2012)f. Corporate Presentation March 2012, Retrieved July 5th, 2012, from address http://northland.eu/en-us/media/presentations Northland Resources. (2012)g. Corporate Presentation February 2012, Retrieved July 5th, 2012, from address http://northland.eu/en-us/media/presentations Northland Resources. (2012)h. NORTHLANDS USD 350 MILLION BOND RATED (B-) FROM S&P AND (CAA1) FROM MOODYS. Retrieved June 15th, 2012, from address http://northland.eu/en-us/investor-relations/press-releases?v=507938 Northland Resources. (2012)i. NORTHLAND EXPANDS THE HANNUKAINEN DFS. Retrieved June 15th, 2012, from address http://northland.eu/en-us/investor-relations/pressreleases?v=497438 Northland Resources. (2012)j. NORTHLAND ANNOUNCES THE SUCCESSFUL SUBSCRIPTION OF BOND OFFERING AND EQUITY OFFERING. Retrieved June 15th, 2012, from address http://northland.eu/en-us/investor-relations/press-releases?v=497454 Northland Resources. (2012)k. The fastest greenfield mine project in the world. Retrieved May 22, 2012, from address http://northland.eu/en-us/media/news/the-fastest-greenfield-mine-projectin-the-world
85
Northland Resources. (2012)l. Equity Prospectus. Retrieved April 2nd, 2012, from address http://northland.eu/getmedia/13ff1493-e1bb-45e7-bb5e-fb9acdc511a2/Northland_ListingProspectus_2012.PDF Northland Resources. (2012)m. Logistics. Retrieved April 2nd, 2012, from address http://www.northland.eu/en-us/media/presentations/investor-tour-2012-logistics Ocean Equities (2011), Differentiating amongst the African juniors and identifying the next serious contenders, Iron ore sector update, July 7. Penman, S. (2010) Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation, 4th Revised Edition McGraw-Hill Education Europe Platts. (2012). Methodology and Specifications Guide. Retrieved May 24th, 2012, from address http://www.platts.com/IM.Platts.Content/MethodologyReferences/MethodologySpecs/ironore.pd f PriceWaterhouseCoopers, (2012). Global Mining 2011 Deals Review & 2012 Outlook. Retrieved May 25th, 2012, from address http://www.pwc.com/en_CA/ca/mining/publications/pwc-m-a-industry-briefing-2012-03-en.pdf Raw Materials Group. (2011). Northland in the Nordic and global world. Retrieved July 20, 2012, from address http://northland.eu/getmedia/b08af6d9-e665-40a5-ae8dd91054a7d339/RMG-June-8-2011.pdf RBC Capital Markets (2011), African iron ore projects: potential for new supply, RBC Prospector, February 4. Rio Tinto. (2012)a. Annual Report 2011. Retrieved May 27th, 2012, from address http://www.riotinto.com/annualreport2011/ Rio Tinto. (2012)b. Corporate Presentation May. Retrieved June 7, 2012, from address
http://www.riotinto.com/documents/Prf4_BoAML.pdf
Roberto, C. M. (2002). Lessons from Everest: The Interaction of Cognitive Bias, Psychological Safety, and System Complexity. California Management Review Volume 45, No. 1.
86
Roubini, N. (2011). Chinas Bad Growth Bet. www.project-syndicate.org. Retrieved July 5th, 2012, from address http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-s-bad-growth-bet Rogers, J. (2004). Hot Commoditie: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market, New York: Random House Roll, R. (1993) The Hubris Hypothesis of Corporate Takeovers. In Richard H. Thaler (ed.), Advances in behavioral finance, pp. 437-458. New York: Russel Sage Foundation Samuelson, F. (2011). Raset skakar i Pajala. Norrlndska Socialdemokraten. Retrieved June 25, 2012, from address http://www.nsd.se/nyheter/artikel.aspx?ArticleID=6322903&fb_source=message Schumpeter, J. (1934). The theory of Economic Development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Shefrin, H. (2007). Behavioral Corporate Finance; Decisions that create value. Boston: McGraw-Hill Steel Dynamics. (2011). Ask World Steel dynamics . Retrieved April 2nd , 2012, from address http://www.aist.org/magazine/wsd/11_sept_28_29.pdf Steen Thomsen (2008). An Introduction to Corporate Governance, Mechanisms and Systems, DJFs Forlag Stein, H. (1997). Herb Stein's Unfamiliar Quotations. Slate magazine. Retrieved April 2nd , 2012, from address http://www.slate.com/articles/business/it_seems_to_me/1997/05/herb_steins_unfamiliar_quotati ons.html Stiglitz, J. (1990). Symposium on Bubbles. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 4, No. 2. (Spring, 1990), pp. 13-18. Sundqvist, K-L. (2009). Optimism i Pajala. Norrlndska Socialdemokraten. Retrieved June 25, 2012, from address http://www.nsd.se/nyheter/artikel.aspx?ArticleId=5093744
87
Sundqvist, K-L. (2011)a. Nya avtal i Kaunisvaara projektet. Norrlndska Socialdemokraten. Retrieved June 25, 2012, from address http://www.nsd.se/nyheter/lulea/artikel.aspx?ArticleId=6372826 Sundqvist, K-L. (2011)b. Ellastbilar ingeting fr Northland. Norrlndska Socialdemokraten. Retrieved June 25, 2012, from address http://www.nsd.se/nyheter/pajala/artikel.aspx?ArticleID=6544870 Swaby, A,. (2011). Gold Prospects. Business Excellence Magazine,Volume 2; 182-191 Sderlind, O. (2012). Hr r aktierna som kan stiga med mer n 100 procent. Affrsvrlden. Retrieved June 5, 2012, from address http://www.affarsvarlden.se/hem/analyser/article3379883.ece UNCTAD, (2010) THE IRON ORE MARKET 2009 2011. United Nations Conference on Trade And Development, Genve, Switzerland. Retrieved June 5, 2012, from address http://r0.unctad.org/infocomm/Iron/Flyer_2010_English.PDF U.S Geological Survey, (2012). Mineral Commodity Summaries; Iron Ore. Retrieved May 27th, 2012, from address http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/iron_ore/ World Coal Association, (2010). COAL & STEEL STATISTICS. World Coal Association. Retrieved May 15th, 2012, from address http://www.worldcoal.org/resources/coal-statistics/coalsteel-statistics/ Worstall, T. (2012). What determines the iron ore price? Forbes. Retrieved July 20, 2012, from address http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2012/06/14/what-determines-the-iron-ore-price/ Xinhua. (2011). China to build 56 more airports in five years. China Daily. Retrieved July 20, 2012, from address http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-04/07/content_12288202.htm
88
Appendix
89
Appendix 2.5 Source: Northland Resources Annual Report, 2012 Management Team Anders Hvide Karl-Axel Waplan Eva Kaijser Peder Zetterberg Peter Pernlf Manfred Lindvall Petri Peltonen Anders Antonsson Hans Nilsson Jonas Lundstrm Patrick Foster Jukka Jokela Bernt Hedin Willy Sundling Current Position Executive Chairman President & Chief Executive Officer Chief Financial Officer Acting Chief Financial Officer Chief Operating Officer Vice President - Environmental, Health, and Safety Vice President Exploration Vice President Investor Relations Vice President Marketing Vice President Human Resources and Corporate Communications Director, Finance Vice President Finnish Operations Project Manager Project Manager Logistics Joined Northland Jan-09 May-08 Apr-10 Jan-12 Dec-10 Sep-08 Sep-08 Apr-11 Jun-08 Apr-08 May-10 Sep-08 Jun-12 Dec-10
Appendix 2.6 Source: Own Creation, Northland Resources Annual Report, 2012
90
Appendix 2.7 Source: Own Creation, Northland Resources Annual Report, 2012
91
92
93
Compensation Option Based Compensation Executive Chairman CEO & President Total Salary Executive Chairman CEO & President Total Total Compensation Executive Chairman CEO & President Total
2009
2010
2011
$ 298,580 N/A
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ 277,577 N/A
Appendix 2.12 Source: Own Creation, Northland Resource Information Circular 2009, 2010, 2011
3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 Today Weighted Average Exercise Price Northland Stock Price
Appendix 2.13 Source: Own Creation, Northland Resource Information Circular 2009, 2010, 2011
94
95
96
Northland Resources Iron Ore Concentrate Fe Sulphur (S) Silica (SiO2) Alumina (Al2O3) Lime (CaO) Phosphor (P2O5) Magnesium Oxide (MgO) Titanium Oxide (TiO2) Particle size Moisture (H20) 69% 0.05% 1.10% 0.18% 0.04% 0.04% 2.65% 0.08% 40 micron ~6%
98
99
100
101
102
103
Apendix 5.2 Source: Own Creation, using data from annual reports and company presentations of Northland Resources and their competitors.
104
Apendix 5.4 Source: Own Creation, using data from annual reports and company presentations of Northland Resources and their competitors.
Appendix 5.5 Source: Own Creation, using data from annual reports and company presentations of Northland Resources and their competitors.
105
106
Apendix 5.9 Source: Own Creation, using data from annual reports and company presentations of Northland Resources and their competitors.
Apendix 5.10 Source: Own Creation, using data from Hurst, (2011) RBC Capital Markets (2011), and Ocean Equities (2011).
Appendix 5.11 Source: Own Creation, using data from annual reports and company presentations of Northland Resources and their competitors.
Apendix 5.12 Source: Own Creation, using data from annual reports and company presentations of Northland Resources and their competitors.
107
109
4000 3500 World Total 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Moderate Conservative Asia Australia South America CIS North America Africa Europ
Apendix 5.20 Source: Own Creation, using data from annual reports, company presentations and industry reports of Northland Resources and their competitors.
110
111
112
114
115
116