SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.95563
R Square
0.913228
Adjusted R Square
0.90703
Standard Error
344.6303
Observations
16
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 17499890 17499890 147.3426 8.07E-09
14 1662780
118770
15 19162670

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 2593.218 214.327 12.09935 8.41E-09 2133.533 3052.904 2133.533 3052.904
X Variable 1 226.8706 18.6902 12.13848 8.07E-09 186.7841 266.9571 186.7841 266.9571

Upper 95.0%

intercept
trend

2593.218
226.8706

year

quarter
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

demand
2250
1737
2412
7269
3514
2143
3459
7056
4120
2766
2566
8253
5491
4382
4315
12035
5648
3696
4843
13097

deseasonalized demandfinal deseasonalised demand

1
2820.088787
2
3046.959375
3575
3
3273.829963
3783.75
4
3500.700551
3965.375
5
3727.57114
4069.625
6
3954.441728
16000
4118.75
7
4181.312316
14000
4272.375
8
4408.182904
4238.625
9
120004635.053493
4276.625
10
4861.924081
10000
4597.625
11
5088.794669
80005315.665257
4971
12
5391.625
13
5542.535846
6000
6083
14
5769.406434
40005996.277022
6575.375
15
6509.25
16
6223.14761
2000
6489.5
17
6450.018199
06676.888787
6688.25
18
1
19
6903.759375
20
7130.629963
21
22
23
24

seasonality index
0.79784722
0.570076521
0.736751764
2.076441527
0.942705013
0.54192226
0.827252245
1.600659535
0.88887863
0.56891057
0.504245144
1.552580834
0.990701757
0.75952354
0.719613184
1.933908812
0.875656444
0.55355123
2
0.701501854
1.836724114
0.899157813
0.598796824
0.697872838
1.800062965

forecast

level
trend

2593.218199
226.8705882

Series1

deseasonalized
8000
7000
3

6000
5000

6615.554
4541.497
5451.253
14469.11

4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1

eseasonalized demand

deseasonalized demand

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.917726
R Square
0.84222
Adjusted R Square
0.826442
Standard Error
298.6093
Observations
12
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 4759715 4759715 53.37947 2.58E-05
10 891675.1 89167.51
11 5651390

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 2894.533 229.0896 12.63494
1.8E-07 2384.089 3404.976 2384.089 3404.976
X Variable 1 182.441 24.97096 7.306126 2.58E-05 126.8022 238.0798 126.8022 238.0798

Upper 95.0%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

2250
1737
2412
7269
3514
2143
3459
7056
4120
2766
2566
8253
5491
4382
4315
12035
5648
3696
4843
13097

3575
3783.75
3965.375
4069.625
4118.75
4272.375
4238.625
4276.625
4597.625
4971
5391.625
6083

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

3076.974
3259.415
3441.856
3624.297
3806.738
3989.179
4171.62
4354.061
4536.502
4718.943
4901.384
5083.825
5266.266
5448.707
5631.148
5813.589

0.731238
0.532918
0.700785
2.00563
0.9231
0.537203
0.829174
1.620556
0.908189
0.586148
0.523526
1.623384
1.042674
0.804228
0.766274
2.07015
0.9013
0.615124
0.70494
1.82993

level
trend

5404.223
3800.527
4484.058
11973.88

error
-243.777
104.5269
-358.942
-1123.12

2894.533
182.441

mean errorabsolute deviation

mean absolute deviation
percentage absolute deviation tracking signal
-243.777
243.7766995
243.7766995 4.31616
4.316159693
-69.6249
104.5269141
69.6248927 2.828109
1.883790387
-166.064
358.941565
166.0637835 7.411554
3.428944528
-405.328
1123.121658
405.3282521 8.575412
3.094817532

tracking signal