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Dave Mendoza Global Talent Strategies & Innovation Consultant April 2013
Futurecasting
Contents
Foreword by Gerry Crispin Introduction by Neil Griffiths The future of candidate insight Converging trends, emerging capabilities Big Datas impact on talent acquisition The strengths and weaknesses of CRM today Futurecasting what might it look like in practice? First things first: building a fit-for-purpose CRM Toward Futurecasting at Informatica Creating the Talent Knowledge Library Drilling down at Informatica and democratizing talent acquisition Big Social Data: the engine of Futurecasting methodology Trust in Registry: the implications of Futurecasting for the employer brand Seven things organizations should do right now to implement a Futurecasting methodology About the author References 3 4 5 6 7 9 12 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 22 23
Futurecasting
Foreword
There was a time, not so long ago, when recruiting was very much simpler. You had an approved opening and you filled it. The technology tools at your disposal included a phone, a rolodex, a notebook and a paper spreadsheet. Every recruiting office had a secretary to help arrange the interview schedule. And quality candidates were plentiful. Sourcing meant calling people on that rolodex, plus searching through other key sources the resumes of applicants whod previously made it to the finalist stage, your own private library of Whos Who directories, as well as professional journals whose authors could be targets. Getting the word out meant calling an advertising agency before Thursday, the deadline for most Sunday classified section display ads. The biggest choke point was getting the envelopes opened and the resumes sorted by job. A recruiting strategy meant knowing how long you would try to do all this on your own before calling in the third-party cavalry. Data conversations in those days were limited to selection and assessment decisions. The rest was simple arithmetic related to scale, relevant costs and little else. How many openings did we have? How many candidates? How many were qualified? How many hires were made in how much time? Where did we spend money? What was the most efficient use of our time in the assembly line, one-sizefits-all world we lived in? Cost per hire was about the only thing possible to manipulate any other data collection would have simply taken up more time and money than could be justified. Times have certainly changed. Today, there are multiple layers of technologies, tools, partners and services embedded in our recruiting processes many of them automated, operating in real time and, unfortunately, lacking any human oversight to ensure they continue to work in alignment with the businesses they serve. At the same time, the universe of potential applicants is increasingly knowable. In fact, billions of people are instantly identifiable globally years in advance of the moment we might need them. We may soon be able to access enough information to predict with high confidence how successful theyd be in our workforce, without ever having spoken to them. Some claim this is already a possibility. There are other factors at play. One of the most important is the fact that the pool of candidates capable of driving business performance forward has diminished. In the US, for example, for every 100,000 students entering the 9th grade in 2013, only 68,000 will graduate from high school in 2016. Only 40,000 of them will enter college that same year and in 2021 five years later fewer than 17,000 will graduate with a college degree. 800 of these college graduates will be engineers, but in that group only 125 will be mechanical engineers. 15 of the mechanical engineers will be women and fewer than five of those women will remain working in the profession by 2026. Even today, if you have an opening for a mechanical engineer with three to five years of experience in high-speed packaging design (and an SLA to ensure the slate is diverse), you know the competition is fierce and getting more so. Someday soon your companys survival may very well depend on being able to compete by a) getting to know those five women even before they have three to five years experience or b) changing the conversion rates noted above to produce more high school graduates, college graduates and engineers. So the future we are facing is very different to the past I described earlier. While recruiting as a profession is becoming ever-more complex and sophisticated, there is growing intensity of competition for quality candidates to fill pivotal positions. The real challenge and indeed the real opportunity is learning how to unlock the huge potential of the unprecedented levels of data we have access to today. This whitepaper is a step in that direction. Gerry Crispin CareerXroads
Futurecasting
Introduction
Nobody knows for certain what the future holds. But to me, it seems a sure thing that the coming years will see the rise of what we call Futurecasting: the ability to interrogate big data generated by the increasingly social digital world, and to begin basing hiring strategies and tactics on the new insights that are created. The potential, especially for the biggest global brands, is truly immense. There are literally billions of future applicants who could be identified, targeted and engaged years before their talents are even needed. In fact, the data already exists to do this. However, few organizations have dedicated the time and resource to intelligently and effectively mine that data, because it is not yet considered an essential agenda item for senior professionals in talent acquisition. But when the industry wakes up to the untapped potential, that situation is sure to change. And once it does, the key to using data to identify trends and patterns will be ensuring that the sources are reliable, and the techniques used are first-class. Suddenly, by viewing the data in the Foresight dashboard, HR professionals can see key decision metrics emerging and they can use that to determine how their organization and investments in talent acquisition are performing. Of course, HR professionals are not data scientists, and theres no reason to imagine they will be in the years to come either. Thats why the expertise of thought leaders like Dave Mendoza will prove to be vital for the talent industry. Here at Futurestep, weve been working with Dave to scope out the possibilities and practicalities of using multiple technologies to predict where to focus talent acquisition activities. Whether through defined and future-proofed Customer Relationship Management platforms (CRMs for short), social media data, or Applicant Tracking Systems, the holy grail is to be able to use these technologies to predict where the best and most relevant talent will be found. A key part of that is ensuring that data is high-quality and sustainable. The Futurecasting concept is the result of exploratory work seeking to define the best ways of applying big data principles to the talent acquisition process. Were excited to be working with thought leaders like Dave Mendoza to help shape and define what comes next.
At Futurestep, weve spent the past fourteen months building a decision support tool known as Foresight to tackle the convergence of big data and operational efficiencies. Foresight takes data from multiple systems being used across the talent acquisition lifecycle and presents information in a clear, By working with industry specialists and our concise display engine. From a single system, colleagues across Korn/Ferry International clients can now aggregate data into a logical and the Korn/Ferry Institute, our intent is to format for easy decision-making. ensure we continue to stay ahead of the curve, embrace the most relevant trends and help clients to use technology and innovation to their best advantage. Neil Griffiths Global Practice Leader, Talent Communications & Employer Brand Futurestep
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The good news is that CRM suites are primed to manage the onslaught of data and make sense of it with enhancements and modifications, of course. An effective CRM can aggregate and sort through data to tell an organization where its talent audience spends time and in what ways and not just the hires that lasted and became internal stars, but the ones who resigned after three months as well. Done correctly, there is the potential for:
With todays social records, the data is there to keep track of the next job in the line. That kind of information, along with companyspecific job titles, can assist workforce planning in a big way. Big Data analyses hold great potential to answer critical questions whose answers have practical applications for talent acquisition specialists:
forecasting to become Futurecasting reporting to become auto-analysis useless information to become essential information time-consuming activity to become efficient jumbled data to become decisionsupporting analysis
Consider the alternative. If a companys talent management team isnt keeping track of where the organizations employees and applicants come from, and if it isnt keeping that record alive with information about how they fared, its doing the organization a disservice and at some point, catching up will become nearly impossible because the hurdles are too great to surmount practically.
What universities and trade schools do competitors invest resources in? What are the most common, identifiable patterns that reflect sources of hire among key competitors? Who do they hire from, and are there commonalities in job title descriptions? What product verticals align most appropriately to corporate offerings, and are the skillsets involved consistent? How do competitors establish quotas to measure performance? What are key indicators of recognition and awards among key business functions such as R&D and sales? What is the average length of time identified to progress from a graduate intern to a software architect or management role? How do all the above questions factor into internal organizational best practices, and has the organization created a platform as a depository to archive these critical data inputs? Is the Talent Knowledge Library available at an enterprise level, and is the data accessible in real-time? How do all the above compare to the organizations own, internal talent acquisition functions in determining source of hire, and how can that knowledge translate into actionable improvements in time-to-fill and cost-per-hire?
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Database tools such as the beloved CRM system are effective in fields identifying what exists, but fail miserably in reverse-engineering the process by incorporating fields that search for what does not exist within records. For instance records that do not have:
Key variables are significant and worth addressing in the talent mapping process coinciding with key business intelligence being factored into a robust CRM:
mobile or work or home phone numbers a social media specific URL (linkedinID, Linkedin Recruiter, Facebook, Twitter, etc.) an attachment pdf or Word doc resume an employer listing a job title a city or state or country a linked job/pipeline ID notations a source ID
The limitations of todays out-of-the-box CRM Therein resides the inability to deal with the Big Data wave using existing, off-the-shelf CRM systems. If only fields that have text entry are searchable, then that renders incomplete records unsearchable. For each of the lines listed above, data that is not there will limit the searchable capability inherent within records. And what about the revolution that is currently underway within talent acquisition? As has been noted for the last five years by social recruiting vendor Jobvite, more companies are jumping onto the social recruiting bandwagon, with as many as 92% of companies using social recruiting as part of their talent acquisition process. So how do CRMs (both process and software) deal with this advent? Not well many company records have lagged in the default inclusion of critical competitive intelligence fields. Source of Hire, for example, is a category of form fields, not simply a single transaction as generally considered.
Top schools: are there specific universities generating certain types of candidates? Prior employers: are there attributable patterns of both immediate and former competitor companies feeding your talent pipelines and hires? Post employers: which competitors, within an industry niche or skill set category, do employees likely migrate to and why? Online social real estate of a competitors ecosystem: is it varied and are there established best practices inherently observable within any given competitors online presence (corporate blogs, online developer communities, careers page, LinkedIn corporate careers page, Facebook careers, career-oriented Twitter accounts, webinars/podcasts, newsletter email updates?)
While the list may seem long, consider this. If 92% of companies are using social to recruit, many of them already have access to that information, and instead of being able to create a rich and dynamic database within their CRM (one that would be eminently searchable), in many cases, these companies are shoving those URLs wherever they can find them, in a neglected notes section or using tags as a way to search for records. Often, this process results in duplicates, multiple spellings and acronyms and general search confusion; a muddying of the data waters. Again, this shows that in our most-used systems (CRM is arguably second only to the ATS in the talent acquisition function), talent acquisition professionals have yet to adapt to the influx of social data, much less prepare for the Big Data that is coming.
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The mobile factor Mobile is also a concern for many employers. While social recruiting is de rigueur in North America, in Europe, the UK and APAC there is a bigger explosion in the area of mobile recruiting. And global recruiting requires access to candidates data which includes mobile phone data. But again, the way we use CRM is not optimized for that. For any global enterprise that has a centered sourcing function, the ability to automatically generate a country code for SMS text messaging campaigns doesnt currently exist. Therefore, training for users must be mandatory so they know the limitations of CRM when it comes to mobile. Limitations in the CRM are a long-term fix to be sure, but there are ways that recruiters, sourcers and administrators themselves can edit the internal data. Two things make this more difficult to do, than to say. The first is, as discussed, the lack of default fields within the system and second, the inability to mass edit within a system. In simpler terms, until the proper tools are built to handle the new data being used as part of the talent acquisition process, we need to dramatically change the processes we use on a regular basis, for everyone on the sourcing and recruiting teams. This is called standardization of process. Before we move on, lets talk a little bit about why fresh, dynamic data is important, aside from the obvious search benefits. To do so, we need to look back at the original CRM systems, as sales and marketing departments used them. The key here is the relationship part. In recruiting as in sales, were in a costly and inefficient cycle; whenever there is turnover in either contract or full-time recruiting, there is a relearning of skills and processes. It is crucial to recognize that at this point the data stays the absolute same, but the ways the data was inputted, sorted and used were as myriad as the people within the company with access to the data. The process was variable.
During the turnover process, relationships must be rebuilt from scratch and the facts relearned by the newest workers, which risks alienating candidates and prospects in multiple ways: Repeated and/or redundant communications Additional contact requests for old information Undermining the brand of the company with different or conflicting messaging
There is a high cost as well in obtaining data that the organization may already have, whether stored improperly or unsearchable. When data is entered improperly or exists as duplicate data, it ultimately costs the organization. When the data changes outside the CRM, but not within it, the data stored there (your organizations rightful intellectual property) becomes irrelevant and the cost obtaining it, wasted. For all of these reasons and more, clean and dynamic data from all sources should be the aim of every person on the talent acquisition team.
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To illustrate, a next-generation SaaS based, open-source platform could easily be configured to key data outlets: Dow Jones & NASDAQ: real-time market data triggering RSS feeds to alert competitors to likely layoffs Hoovers: contact information, competitive reports, and the ability to develop targeted executive listings LinkedIn: identifying competitors products and services to add relevance to search keywords, to the more critical business intelligence aspects (where employees came from, as well as top skills and expertise by function)
Why is all this important? Automation and convergence of data offer the following capabilities accurately forecast which candidate will stay and for how long determine real-time career progression create talent pipelines that assess cultural fit long before the application process nurture candidates and students years before they apply identify business market trends, mergers and acquisitions and align product with them bolster the candidate experience by automating relationship-building communications and establishing alerts to ensure prospects are notified of developments regularly, in a timely fashion
The net result is compelling. Talent acquisition professionals will find themselves able to finely tune and refresh data to more efficiently target candidates and build high-functioning talent pipelines. In this scenario, the only limitation is imagination, really. Above all the talent acquisition industry should demand ease of use, free from premium costs, in the ability to customize data fields to configure key data. Smart vendors will embrace these demands. Their obligation is to offer their clientele in HR and talent acquisition tools that are easily configured and customized to specific needs; these tools must be usable and searchable. Talent leaders should feel free to suggest any data categories that would enhance a platforms capabilities, because too often a few simple tweaks are all that is necessary to find the right talent.
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1) Data must be usable and searchable. The data should be easy to filter by data equal to, containing, or not equal to key criteria, and custom fields specific to social platform hyperlinks to accurately identify missing data, as well as data Futurecasting is not about where candidates missing as a subcomponent. (recruiters leads) are now; it concerns a 2) Extraction and leveraging of data must system-wide, strategic effort to harvest and be easy to ensure a tool that is at once combine dynamic and static data regarding powerful, intuitive and requires minimal prospects, to enable a talent pool to be training. The solution would be used by searchable for years as it feeds off multiple a diverse community of recruiters, only a data points, ensuring its own relevance. handful of whom had an appreciation of Illustrating this is my work with Informatica, data science. drawing on the concept of passive pipelining 3) Data must be capable of being migrated which is to say, creating a pipeline that a talent from multiple lead-generation channels acquisition team can source from, at any time, spreadsheets, job boards, online resumes, to identify source-of-hire information among talent communities, social profiles, etc. immediate and prior employees. in order to optimize removal of duplicates and track metrics of source-of-hire more accurately and consistently. Overview 4) Data must be categorized, tagged and Informatica reviewed its database and mapped to talent for ease of segmentation. determined that Jobs2Web, the companys A successful configuration can allow for SEO product, would benefit from the segment creations in a matter of seconds, dynamic environment of my CRM platform. and these can be complex such as the The first step in data migration was a direct ability to splice a talent pool by profiles import of the corporate talent organizations with a LinkedIn URL. entire database originating from the talent community population. In addition, a live-feed was created to integrate the flow of new talent community registrants in real-time, within the CRM platform.
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6) De-duplicate and enforce data quality standards to your organizations database Though not a short or easy process, it is one that every company under the age of five years should do on a regular basis, at least until the technology does it for us. By ridding the database of duplicate records, the organization accomplishes two things: It determines where its data needs to be standardized (see step 1). It saves time when looking for records. By cleaning up the database ridding it of incorrect, incomplete or old information and replacing all that with correct, complete, new information the organization accomplishes another two things: It creates URLs for profiles that didnt have them before. It fills in fields that are empty, making that profile fully searchable. 7) Recognize the value of intellectual property With recruiting turnover and contract recruiting a fact of life for many local and global organizations, companies need to realize the value of their data. Simply put, if an organization pays someone to source data on a daily basis, it must make sure that it keeps that data safe and validated by following the steps listed above.
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References
Good Data Wont Guarantee Good Decisions. Harvard Business Review. Shah, Shvetank; Horne, Andrew; Capell, Jaime;. HBR.org. Retrieved 8 September 2012. Big Data in HR: Why its here and what it means. Bersin, Josh: http://www.bersin.com/blog/post/BigData-in-HR--Why-its-here-and-what-it-means.aspx November 17, 2012. Does Big Data Live Up To Its Hype? Lorenz, Mary. http://thehiringsite.careerbuilder.com/2012/11/15/does-big-data-live-up-to-its-hype/ November 15, 2012.