Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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May 6 2009
Agenda
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May 6 2009
3
May 6 2009
Comments
• History matters
• Czechoslovakia’s interwar income was higher than Austria, Belgium (after 40 years of communism less half of
theirs)
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May 6 2009
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May 6 2009
Agenda
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May 6 2009
MOTTO
“The rise and fall of the Soviet Empire can not be explained by the tools of the neoclassic
analysis. We need institutional and cognitive approach to solve current problems of
development.“ (North, 1997b)
Douglass North (born 1920) is an American economist known for his work in the history of economic thought. He is the co-recipient (with Robert
William Fogel) of the 1993 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. In the words of the Nobel Committee, North and Fogel were awarded
the prize "for having renewed research in economic history by applying economic theory and quantitative methods in order to explain
economic and institutional change."
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May 6 2009
Even very liberal economists proposed temporary stabilisation and anti-inflationary administrative
regulations
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May 6 2009
Set of policies for promoting economic growth was prepared for Latin America first
Not suitable for the former command economies, as they did not take into account different
historic and institutional differences
Washington Consensus did not succeed because it did not involve institutions
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May 6 2009
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Agenda
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May 6 2009
Financial sector and especially capital market was only forming, property right were
not well defined, market-oriented management was absent->Privatisation without
Capital
Not many capable economists, no capable lawyers prepared for the change
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May 6 2009
Distortions
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May 6 2009
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May 6 2009
• In the CPE, enterprises operated without the working capital, paying each
other on the basis of permanent credits issued by the state bank
• The reform of the banking system created monetary restrictive central bank,
while enterprises devolved to commercial banks->liquidity crisis->supply
disruption->bancruptcies
• Faced with massive withdrawal by the population the CB increased the interest
rate to 16%
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May 6 2009
Small privatisation
• Small businesses and shops not returned to their original owners under the Restitution
Law were being auctioned off to the public
• Privatization through restitution of real estate to the former owners was largely completed
in 1992
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May 6 2009
Big privatisation
• Since most large businesses had been nationalised by the pre-Communist regime, few
large industrial enterprises were restored to the original owners
• Voucher privatisation
• Most state-owned heavy industries
• Every citizen was given the opportunity to buy a book of vouchers that represents
potential shares in any state-owned company
• The voucher holders could then invest their vouchers, infusing the chosen company
with valuable capital
1989 1998
Private
State owned
3%
20%
80%
97%
Private
State owned 19
May 6 2009
Agenda
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May 6 2009
• Radical reformers sought to raise the rate from 15 Kcs/$ in 1989 to 36 Kcs/$ to
stipulate exports, opponents sought to a rate close to the PPP 10 Kcs/$
• The result was a rate 28 Kcs/$ with a 20% surcharge on imports
• Following a series of currency devaluations, the crown has remained stable in
relation to the U.S. Dollar
• The Czech crown became fully convertible for most business purposes in late
1995
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May 6 2009
• ..1989
• ..high expectations
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May 6 2009
Agenda
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May 6 2009
Successes Drawbacks
• Liberalization of 95% of all price controls • Weak microeconomic and especially institutional
basis of the Czech economy were recognised
• Annual inflation in the 10% range late
• Modest budget deficits • Standards of behaviour that were formed under
communism were different from those formed in
• Low unemployment democracy
• Positive balance of payments position
Source: aMEDA
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May 6 2009
“Changing merely formal rules will produce the desired results only when the informal
norms are complementary to that rule change, and enforcement is either perfect or at least
consistent with the expectations of those altering the rules” (North, 1997a: 16)
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Transition process
Excessive transition costs were due to fragile microeconomic bases of enterprises
Real value of the enterprises was unclear as accounting provided only virtual numbers
Privatisation program lacked any creation of an institutional framework that could minimalize those
microeconomic weaknesses and supported macroeconomic policy
The theory says that during time ineffective institutions leave and they are substituted with effective ones
The transition process was unique; there was no previous experience with such a big change of
the whole system
Overall the transition process was succesful; though many mistakes were made
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May 6 2009
Agenda
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May 6 2009
GDP 143.0 $ bn
Economy
GDP per capita 12,790 $
Agriculture 2.7 %
GDP by Industry 39 %
sector
Services 58.6 %
Agriculture 4 %
Employeme Industry 40 %
nt
Services 56 %
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May 6 2009
Electronics 14 %
Machinery 12 %
Import Chemicals 9 %
Goods
Fuels and lubricants 9 %
Germany 28 %
PR China 8 %
Top 5
countries of Poland 6 %
import
Slovakia 5 %
Italy 5 %
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May 6 2009
Foreign trade
Variable Amount Unit
Machinery 14 %
Export Electronics 14 %
Goods
Electro-technology 9 %
Germany 31 %
Slovakia 9 %
Top 5
countries of Poland 6 %
export
France 5 %
Austria 5 %
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May 6 2009
• Czech economy entered recession from a relatively • Czech banking sector was not largely affected with
strong position the crisis
• few of the macroeconomic imbalances • Real credit growth has been moderate
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May 6 2009
Country profile - Austria
• Recipients of Aid
– Erste Bank (capital + state-guarantees)
– Raiffeisen Zentral Bank (capital)
– Discussion with Bank Austria (UniCredit)
Interest rate development
– Smaller banks
• Banking sector
6.00% – Bank Austria (UniCredit), Erste Group, RZB
3.00% 3.25%
4 2.00% – Huge exposure to CEE – 70% of GDP for Austria-
2 1.00% 0.25% based banks, more than 100% of GDP when Bank
Austria is considered
0.00%
I- II- III- IV- V- VI- VII-VIII IX- X- XI- XII- I- II- III- IV-
08 08 08 08 08 08 08 -08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09
• EUR 20bn Bailout by IMF,WB and EC • Recapitalization and state-guarantee programme for
systemic banks
• High currency volatility
– OTP
• 70% of debts denominated in foreign currencies – FHB
• Reactions of Banks
– Restricting FX loans
– Limiting Loan to Value ratios
Interest rate development – Tightening lending standards
0.00%
I- II- III- IV- V- VI- VII-VIII IX- X- XI- XII- I- II- III- IV-
08 08 08 08 08 08 08 -08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09
• Poland set up a $20.5 billion credit line from the IMF. • Anti-crisis package includes bank guarantees, loans
This was not a bail-out like those for Ukraine, to business
Hungary and Latvia.
• Credit crisis has mainly affected the Warsaw Stock
• It was a precautionary and unconditional overdraft Exchange.
offered only to top-quality borrowers
• The zloty has fallen by 30% from its peak
5 7.50%
0.00%
I- II- III- IV- V- VI- VII-VIII IX- X- XI- XII- I- II- III- IV-
08 08 08 08 08 08 08 -08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09
• Real GDP growth forecast to contract by -3.9% in • Central Bank lowers interest rate in April 09 to
2009 12.5% - accordingly, the worst of the financial crisis
is over and lower inflation allows for decrease of
• Sharply hit by drop in prices of resources interest rate
• Rouble depreciated 40% • Market not yet consolidated, only three banks
(Sberbank, VTB and Gazprombank) above 3%
• The US-$ 530bn currency reserves are now partly market share
being used for anti-crisis measures. Overall support
to revitalize the economic situation: US-$ 230bn • Most significant state support: Pumping US-$
45bn into threse three largest banks
Interest rate development • Additionally, numerous smaller banks (e.g. Soyuz
Bank, the Russian Agricultural Bank and Alfa Bank)
13.0% received state aid
12.0%
11.0% • Local banks experienced severe liquidity drains as
foreign investors pulled out billions from Russian
stock market
0.0%
Jan.- Apr.- Juli- Okt.- Jan.- Apr.-
08 08 08 08 09 09
Source: Central Bank of the Russian Federation; European Commission Economic Forecast Sprin 2009; Individual country slides
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May 6 2009
Country profile - Ukraine