Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | June 25, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | June 25, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis API crude oil inventories expected to fall 2 mn bbl today Reuters. Italian Retail Sales declined by 0.1 percent in April. UKs BBA Mortgage Approvals increased to 36,100 in May. European equities are trading higher today ahead of the major economic data to be released from US. Asian markets ended on a mixed note and US stock futures are trading in the green. Italian Retail Sales declined by 0.1 percent in April as against an earlier fall of 0.3 percent a month ago. UKs British Bankers' Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals increased by 3,100 to 36,100 in May from previous rise of 33,000 in April. Spot gold prices increased around 0.2 percent on the back of upbeat global markets. Further, weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX) supported an upside in prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1288.80/oz and hovered around $1283.21/oz today till 4:30pm IST. In the Indian markets, prices fell by 0.2 percent on account of appreciation in the Indian Rupee. Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with upside in the base metals complex, Spot silver prices increased around 0.4 percent today. Additionally, a weaker DX acted as a positive factor for the prices. The white metal touched an intra-day high of $19.84/oz and was trading at $19.72/oz till 4:30pm IST today. On the MCX near month contract, traded on a flat note but appreciation in the Rupee cushioned sharp fall in prices. The base metals group traded on a positive note today on account of recovery in the global markets after a downside pressure was witnessed in the morning session. Further, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in prices. However, sharp upside in prices was capped on the back of mixed LME inventories scenario. In the domestic markets, appreciation in the Rupee exerted downside pressure on prices. Copper, the leader of the base metals pack increased around 0.8 percent today on the back of decline in LME copper inventories by 0.5 percent which stood at 674,850 tonnes. Further, upbeat global markets coupled with weakness in the DX supported an upside in prices. On the domestic front, appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gain in prices. Nymex crude oil prices rose by 0.8 percent taking cues from forecast for decline in API crude oil inventories. Additionally, optimistic global markets along with weakness in the DX acted as a positive factor for prices. On the domestic bourses, appreciation in the Rupee prevented positive movement in prices. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to st decline by 2 million barrels for the week ending on 21 June 2013.
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low

Performance during the day

Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 25 June 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5606.95 18602.25 13081.62 1790.33 15274.92

5666.25 18802.31 13234.89 1807.62 15309.36

5570.25 18487.30 12758.22 1770.53 15084.42

5609.10 18629.15 12969.34 1780.63 15084.42

0.34 0.48 -0.72 -1.02 -0.13

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 25 June 13
Current % Chg from Prev day

82.58 1.3117 59.76

82.71 1.315 59.79

82.44 1.3107 59.43

82.54 1.3121 59.665

-0.11 0.03 -0.23

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 25 June 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver Comex Silver July13 MCX Silver July13 Crude Oil Nymex Aug 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil July 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper June13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - June13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX June13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX June13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX June13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl

1281.49 1281.30 26666.00 19.65 28.23 40702 95.02 101.00 5701 6709.25 399.60 1824.75 106.90 2004 119.30 13666 817.90 1774.50 103.45

1288.80 1286.00 26745.0 19.84 0.20055 40977 96.09 102.08 5747 6787.00 404.90 1843.00 107.80 2019 119.80 13893 824.60 1791.00 104.50

1273.46 1273.50 26541.0 19.43 0.196 40360 94.59 100.70 5666 6602.00 393.30 1815.00 106.40 1986 118.20 13525 805.10 1765.50 103.00

1283.21 1286.00 26675.00 19.72 0.19493 40840 95.96 101.82 5746 6758.00 403.50 1835.75 107.60 2011 119.65 13811 822.20 1775.50 103.60

0.15 0.72 -0.19 0.36 -2.33 0.01 0.82 0.65 0.77 0.78 0.67 0.73 0.23 0.27 -0.08 1.11 0.69 0.31 -0.14

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | June 25, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook Precious metal and base metal prices in the evening session will take cues from US consumer confidence data which is expected on negative side. If the data comes as per expectations then a markets sentiments could weaken leading to strength in the DX which in turn have a negative impact on precious metals and base metals. Crude oil prices will be impacted by consumer confidence data release and API inventories report. Although, inventories expected to fall prices will take major cues from consumer confidence data.

Technical Outook for evening session 25 June 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Aug'13 Spot Gold Silver July13 Spot Silver Brent Crude July13 Crude Oil July13 Nymex Crude Oil Aug13 Natural Gas June13 LME Copper Copper June13 Zinc June13 Lead June13 Aluminum June13 Nickel June13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 26420 1272 40200 19.43 6010 5630 94.13 218 6615 394 105.8 118 102 802 Support 1 26540 1277 40500 19.58 6050 5680 94.96 221.5 6700 399 106.7 118.9 102.8 810 CMP 26656 1283 40824 19.74 6090 5736 95.9 223.6 6773 403.25 107.55 119.6 103.6 821.5 Resistance1 26750 1288 41150 19.90 6120 5760 96.3 226 6820 406 108.4 120.4 104.7 830 Resistance 2 26870 1294 41500 20.07 6150 5810 97.14 229 6867 409 109.1 121.3 105.5 839

Important Events for Today

Indicator Inflation Report Hearings BBA Mortgage Approvals Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Durable Goods Orders m/m S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y CB Consumer Confidence New Home Sales Country UK UK US US US US US Time (IST) 2:00pm 2:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm Actual 36.1K Forecast 33.1K -0.1% 3.0% 10.6% 75.6 462K Previous 32.2K 1.5% 3.5% 10.9% 76.2 454K Impact High Medium High Medium Medium High High