Scenario: End of QE: Economy Back on Track

Description: What if economic growth continues to accelerate, enabling the Fed to wind down QE and return to a more neutral monetary policy? Outcome: If the US economic recovery becomes self-sustaining, the Fed can wind down its asset buying programs and eventually raise short term interest rates above 0%. This will help prevent inflation from rising too quickly as the US finally moves into the first normal business cycle since the financial crisis. Timeframe: 1 Year Scenario Expectation: 0% priced into market

Macro Impact
10Y UST Yield CPI Euro Gold Oil Retail Sales S&P 500 Unemployment US GDP Growth US Home Prices USD Index

Current Projected 2.25% 1.11% $1.33 $1377 /oz $95.38 /barrel 4.31% 1612.52 7.6% 2.4% 151.71 (2000 = 100) 80.99 (Index Value) 2.98% 1.86% $1.34 $1360.78 $100.25 5.29% 1,774.74 6.79% 4.1% 157.12 85.86

Change +0.73% +0.75% +0.51% -1.18% +5.1% +0.98% +10.06% -0.81% +1.7% +3.56% +6.01%

Portfolio Impact: AGG

End of QE: Economy Back on Track Scenario Impact: -1%

Portfolio Impact: IVV

End of QE: Economy Back on Track Scenario Impact: 12.5%

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