EPSSim User Guide

EPSSim User Guide
Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model

Versions 2.9b and 2.9c
PART ONE
Practising EPSSim
PART TWO
Practical Exercises
EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model PART ONE / Chapter 1 PART ONE
EPSSim User Guide
EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model (Versions 2.9b and 2.9c)
PART ONE / Chapter 1 EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model
UNESCO 2012
All rights reserved
The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout this publication do not
imply the expres sion of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UNESCO concerning the legal status
of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its fron-
tiers or boundaries.
The authors are responsible for the choice and the presentation of the facts contained in this book
and for the opinions expressed therein, which are not necessarily those of UNESCO and do not
commit the organi zation.

Editing: Gwang-Choi Chang, Raphalle Martnez Lattanzio, Kate Glazebrook, Rachel McCarthy
Design/Layout: Warren Field
Front cover photo: Jenny Solomon / Dreamstime.com
TH/HQ/13/007-E
EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model PART ONE / Chapter 1
EPSSim User Guide
This User Guide is the result of collaborative work
among UNESCO staff (including former colleagues) at
both UNESCO Paris and UNESCO Bangkok. The idea of
a practical user guide for EPSSim came from Hilaire
Mputu (Paris) who, based on his experience, identied
need for more hands-on guidance to potential users of
EPSSim. Under his supervision, Ji-Eun Chung (Paris)
prepared an initial draft of the user guide, which was
reviewed and further improved by Kate Glazebook
(Bangkok). The present version of the guide has been
nalized under the responsibility of Raphalle Martinez
Lattanzio (Paris) in cooperation with Rachel McCarthy
(Bangkok). Gwang-Chol Chang (Bangkok) provided
guidance throughout the process.
Numerous colleagues provided advice and support in
the drafting of this guide. They are, among others,
Mathias Rwehera, Nyi Nyi Thaung and Satoko Yano.
This User Guide is a living document, which is meant to
evolve and be further enriched based on the needs of
users. We therefore welcome your feedback. Should you
have any comments or questions on this guide and/or
the EPSSim model, please contact:
epssim@unesco.org (Paris Team)
epr.bgk@unesco.org (Bangkok Team)
CHAPTER 1: Simulation in Education Planning
................................................................... 2
1.1 Educational Simulation Models in Educational Policy Formulation and Planning .......... 2
1.2 Types of Simulation Models ......................................................................................... 4
1.3 Three Stages of Simulation .......................................................................................... 6
1.4 Developing Scenarios .................................................................................................. 9
CHAPTER 2: Starting EPSSim
................................................................................................11
2.1 EPSSim as a Demographic Computer Simulation Model ............................................ 11
2.2 Installing EPSSim ....................................................................................................... 12
2.2a Enabling Macros and Setting Security Level for Excel 2003 ........................................ 13
2.2b Starting EPSSim for Excel 2007 Users ........................................................................ 15
2.3 Introduction to the Start Worksheet .......................................................................... 17
CHAPTER 3: EPPSim 2.9B/2.9C Menu
..................................................................................20
3.1 Overview ................................................................................................................... 20
3.2 Whats EPSSim? Tab .............................................................................................. 21
3.3 Population Data Tab .................................................................................................. 22
3.4 Simulation/Projections Tab ......................................................................................... 25
3.5 Cost Projections Tab .................................................................................................. 27
3.6 Additional Costing Tab .............................................................................................. 33
3.7 Scenarios Tab ........................................................................................................... 34
3.8 Technical Tips on EPSSim ........................................................................................... 37
CHAPTER 4: EPSSim Utilities Menu
......................................................................................40
4.1 Summaries Tab .......................................................................................................... 41
4.2 View Charts .............................................................................................................. 42
4.3 Extra Utilities ............................................................................................................. 44
CHAPTER 5: Customizing EPSSim
........................................................................................49
5.1 The Structure of the Educational System ................................................................... 49
5.2 Customizing Educational Staff .................................................................................. 51
5.3 Choosing Education Indicators for Viewing Scenarios................................................ 52
5.4 MACROS .................................................................................................................. 52
CONTENTS PART ONE
EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model PART ONE / Chapter 1
A NNEXES .......................................................................................................
54
1 EPSSim Features ............................................................................................................. 54
2 Worksheets used in EPSSim 2.9 ...................................................................................... 62
3 Assessing Efciency by Cohort Analysis .......................................................................... 65
1 EXERCISE ON INDICATORS .............................................................................................93
2 WORKING ON SCENARIOS: A SIMULATION EXERCISE .................................................. 94
Activity 1 Developing a Status Quo Scenario ............................................................. 95
Activity 2 Developing an Exploratory Scenario .............................................................. 97
Activity 3 Developing an Alternative Scenario to set a Reference Scenario .................... 98
3 EPSSIM ADAPTATION EXERCISE (ADVANCED TRAINING) ............................................. 102
4 SOLUTIONS OF THE SIMULATION EXERCISE: WORKING ON SCENARIOS ..................... 111
5 SOLUTIONS OF THE ADAPTATION EXERCISE ............................................................... 121
CONTENTS PART TWO
PART ONE Figures and Tables
Chapter 1 ............................................................................................................................. 2
Fig 1.1 Uses of simulation modelling ......................................................................... 3
Fig 1.2 Simulation models budgetary or demographic approaches ..................... 5
Table 1.1 Correspondence between strategic planning and policy simulation ............. 6
Fig 1.3 Logical sequence of demographic simulation model ow .............................. 7
Table 1.2 Type of variables in primary education used in EPSSim ................................... 8
Chapter 2 ........................................................................................................................... 11
Fig 2.1 Simplied chart of EPSSim simulation ow .................................................. 12
Fig 2.2 Security Warning dialog box (Excel 2003) .................................................... 13
Fig 2.3 Message box conrming the successful installation of EPSSim menus (Excel 2003) 13
Fig 2.4 Macro Security (Excel 2003) ......................................................................... 14
Fig 2.5 Macro Security (Excel 2003) ......................................................................... 14
Fig 2.6 Setting Macro Security Level (Excel 2003) .................................................... 15
Fig 2.7 Security Options (Excel 2007) ....................................................................... 16
Fig 2.8 Add-Ins Menu bar (Excel 2007) .................................................................... 16
Fig 2.9 Introductory Windows for EPSSim 2.9b ....................................................... 17
Fig 2.10 Flow Chart ................................................................................................... 19
Chapter 3 ........................................................................................................................... 20
Fig 3.1 EPSSim 2.9b Menu .................................................................................... 20
Fig 3.2 Introductory Pop-up box .............................................................................. 21
Fig 3.3 Show Indicators (Glossary) .......................................................................... 22
Fig 3.4 Population Data Menu ................................................................................. 23
Fig 3.5 Population Projections Data ........................................................................ 24
Fig 3.6 Dropout Projections Data ............................................................................. 25
Fig 3.7 Simulations and Projections Menu ............................................................... 26
Fig 3.8 Educational Inputs in Primary Education ...................................................... 26
Fig 3.9 Simulations and Projections Menu ............................................................... 27
Fig 3.10 Cost Projections Menu ................................................................................. 28
Fig 3.11 Results of Financial Forecasts ....................................................................... 28
Fig 3.12 Cost Projections by Education Level ............................................................ 30
Fig 3.13 Expenditure Framework ................................................................................ 31
Fig 3.14 Expenditure Balance .................................................................................... 32
Fig 3.15 Additional Costing ....................................................................................... 33
Fig 3.16 Scenarios Menu .......................................................................................... 34
Fig 3.17 Dialogue box for Generating Scenarios ........................................................ 35
Fig 3.18 Dialogue box to validate scenarios ............................................................... 35
Fig 3.19 Charts on Scenario ..................................................................................... 36
Fig 3.20 Contracting and Expanding Rows ................................................................ 37
Fig 3.21 Using hyperlinks .......................................................................................... 38
Fig 3.22 Selecting the whole worksheet ................................................................... 38
Fig 3.23 Contracting or Expanding Columns ............................................................. 39
Fig 3.24 Viewing and Moving worksheets ................................................................. 39
Chapter 4 ........................................................................................................................... 40
Fig 4.1 EPSSim Utilities Menu .................................................................................. 40
Fig 4.2 EPSSim Utilities Menu .................................................................................. 40
Fig 4.3 View Charts Menu ...................................................................................... 42
Fig 4.4 Enrolments Chart ......................................................................................... 43
Fig 4.5 Extra Utilities ................................................................................................ 44
Fig 4.6 Calculating Flow Rates ................................................................................. 44
Fig 4.7 Cohort Analysis .......................................................................................... 45
Fig 4.8 Sprague Multipliers 1 ................................................................................... 46
Fig 4.9 Sprague Multipliers 2 ................................................................................... 46
Fig 4.10 Educational Indicators .................................................................................. 47
Fig 4.11 Menu Sheet ................................................................................................. 48
Chapter 5 ........................................................................................................................... 49
Fig 5.1 VOC worksheet .......................................................................................... 50
Fig 5.2 Setting the age population for each level and type of education .................. 50
Fig 5.3 Modifying the number of grades ................................................................ 51
Fig 5.4 Classifying categories of teachers ................................................................ 52
PART TWO Figures and Tables
Chapter 1 ............................................................................................................................ 93
Fig 1.1 Pre-Simulation Exercises ............................................................................... 93
Fig 1.2 Exercise on Indicators ................................................................................... 93
EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model PART ONE / Chapter 1 EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model PART ONNE / Chapter 1
EPSSim User Guide
PART ONE
Practising EPSSim
2
PART ONE / Chapter 1 EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model PART ONE PART ONE / Chapter 1 r EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model PART PART T ONE ONE TT
Chapter 1
Simulation in Education Planning
National education sectors are highly complex systems. The effects of policy decisions on edu-
ca tion system and its development are not always obvious. Since the 1960s, UNESCO and other
international agencies have supported education systems around the world in uncovering the
implications of their policy decisions. Education simulation models were introduced and used as
one of the tools in this process. Since then, several generations of models have been created and
have evolved over time.
From the rst-generation of `generic models on mainframe computers in the 1960s, UNESCOs
simulation modelling work expanded with the common use of spreadsheet-based education
simulation models in the 1980s. Since the Declaration of Education for All in Jomtien in 1990,
especially its reafrmation in 2000 in Dakar, the use of computer-based simulation models has
intensied. UNESCOs models have been used for planning at national and sub-national levels
(regions, districts) throughout the world, including in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Arab States region,
Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Asia and the Pacic region.
Such models are inevitably required to serve a variety of purposes. Requirements and expectations
differ between different stakeholders and change over time. In-country stakeholders include not
only Ministry of Education and other Government departments dealing with the provision of
education, but also Ministries of Finance and Planning. Non-state actors (e.g. civil society, business
sector, etc.) play an increasingly active role in education develop ment. External stakeholders,
including international and bilateral donors, also inuence the design of a countrys education
sector policy and its implementation. Resulting from their different mandates and functions, for
some stakeholders the primary purpose is to project the implications of policy decisions on the
dynamics and resource requirements of the education system, for others it is to cost them or
to assess the feasibility of quality improvements within a given expenditure framework. As the
emphasis moves from policy-setting to planning to implemen tation, the focus and the role of
simulation modelling expands accordingly. Moreover, what is an open decision variable early in the
process became a constraint later on, once the decision has been made.
1.1 Education Simulation Models in Educational Policy
Formulation and Planning
A simulation model is a tool used to analyze, explore and project complex social and economic
systems. It aims to simulate reality by estimating and assessing future circumstances based on
changes in given variables. Simulation models take policy options, technical feasibilities, and
nancial constraints into account in order to project future resourcing and budgeting needs that
would serve as a basis for policy dialogue.
3
Prior to computer simulation, it was difcult to anticipate and measure the impact of various
decisions on the development of an education system, and in particular on education nancing.
Computer simulation has contributed substantially to the preparation of coherent national educa-
tional policies and strategies and to the robustness of education development plans.
This is particularly critical since education planning is taking place in an increasingly complex
environ ment. Change is occurring at an ever increasing pace (emphasising the need for exibility
and strategic planning); there is a multiplicity of stakeholders (increasing the need for consensus
and compromise and a strong focus on results and outcomes); and the public nance context is
increasingly competitive (placing greater attention on opportunity costs, cost-benet analy sis and
evidence-based expenditure).
While they can be used to model and appraise sub-components of the education system, simulation
models are particularly useful in developing holistic, sector-wide education strategies.
Simulation modelling is therefore used to (Figure 1.1):
analyze currenl policy sellings and explore policy implicalions ol planning direclions on lhe
education system as a whole (to ensure the coherence of education plans);
promole consensus-building wilh slakeholders on overall educalional developmenl goals
a nd specic objectives and facilitate negotiation on policy and resources (thus supporting an
informed policy dialogue);
supporl lhe implemenlalion ol cosled seclor plans and an equilable and ellcienl allocalion
of resources (promoting the transparency in resource management); and
invesligale possible oplions lor capilalizing on achievemenls and correcling pasl shorl-
comings by monitoring and evaluating the performance of educational systems (therefore,
increasing accountability).
Figure 1.1 Uses of simulation modelling
Transparency
Working
Tool
Accountability
Computer
Simulation
Informed Policy
Dialogue
Negotiation
Tool
Monitoring &
Evaluating
Tool
Planning
Tool
Coherence
1 / Simulation in Education Planning
4
PART ONE / Chapter 1 EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model PART ONE
1.2 Types of Simulation Models
While there is wide variation in education simulation models, they can be roughly categorized
accor ding to their generic or country-specic characteristics, and the budgetary or demographic
approach they are based on.
Generic vs Country specic approaches
In theory, there are two main types of models according to the immediate purpose of their use:
generic and country-specic models. In practice, the distinction is often blurred.
EPSSim is categorized as a generic model that is comprising the common features of all modern
school systems (such as student ow), together with a set of optional components to be included or
excluded as required to achieve a rst approximation of a countrys education system development.
In other words, it does not correspond to any specic system or country but repres ents a virtual
education system. Once the baseline data and policy options are entered, the generic model can be
used to approximate the pedagogical, physical, and nancial consequences of policy orientations.
It can be useful at the initial stage of designing an education policy by exploring policy alternatives
and facilitating consensus-building on the chief goals and objectives. At a later stage, with further
country-level adaptation, this sort of a model can develop into a power ful operational tool for
designing elaborated education development plans and their action plans that take into account
the specicities of the given national systems. For more information on country-level adaptation of
EPSSim in particular, see Chapter 5.
The country-specic models are directly developed from the structure and specics of a given
education system and help dene detailed options, in particular at the stage of preparing action
plans. Given their specic design and purpose, country-specic models provide powerful tools for
a given countrys education planning, however, their adaptation and use in a different country
context is difcult.
Budgetary vs demographic approaches
There is another distinction that can be made according to the underlying assumption of planning
principles: budgetary and demographic. These two types of models are designed according to two
different methodological approaches, or points of departure: budgetary models tend to use the
national budget for education as the main decision variable, whereas demographic models start
with the assumption that all potential learners should benet from education (see Figure 1.2).
In the budgetary model, the planner is rst concerned with determining an acceptable budget
ceiling in proportion to the countrys general budget, and subsequent expenditure ceilings for
each education sub-sector within a given overall budget ceiling. The simulation therefore works
backwards to obtain nancially acceptable enrolment targets and determine the necessary non-
nancial resources.
5
In the case of the demographic model such as EPSSim, the opposite logic is implemented:
enrolment targets are taken as a priori and the simulation calculates the corresponding resource
implications, especially nancial.

Figure 1.2 Simulation models budgetary or demographic approaches
Ratios of
students
to teachers,
equipment etc
Ratios of
students
to teachers,
equipment etc
Number of
students
Financial/budgetry model (driven by costs)
Demographic/needs model (driven by demographic trends)
Number of
students
Enrolment-
related
targets
Flow
rates
Budget
ceilings
Per
student
unit
cost
Budget
celings
Per student
unit cost
Number of
teachers,
buildings etc
Number of
teachers,
buildings etc
Financial
resource
requirements
&
&

As shown in Figure 1.2, the budgetary model responds to the perceived need to control educa tional
expenditures, in particular following structural adjustment policies advocated by external donors
in the past. By contrast, the demographic approach which is increasingly dominant nowa days,
and which EPSSim is based, takes the national policy goals as the decision variables to derive the
resource requirements and ensures the budgetary balance through trade-offs across and within the
sub-sectors.
The demographic approach was developed most notably under the impetus of major international
conferences advocating for the universalisation of basic education (Education for All in particular).
It has prevailed over the budgetary approach in so far as the education policy that is pursued aims
to improve the quality while increasing access to education in a sector-wide development context.
In the demographic models, constructed in the image of the structure of the education system
of a country, the decision variables are principally educational objectives rather than budgetary
constraints. This new needs-based approach changes the way development agen cies work with
recipient countries in the preparation of development plans and programmes in the education
sector. These plans should now explicitly outline the expected results (outputs and outcomes) of
development actions such that accurate estimates of the educational systems potential to achieve
their objectives can be identied in advance. In so doing, it is anticipated that education sector
6
plans will be more credible and the scale of the task more clearly understood. In turn, this can help
to improve the expected efciency of education investments and provide a sound basis upon which
to conduct monitoring and evaluation.
In practice, however, many models develop hybrid approaches depending on the education level
focus and on the priority/purpose pursued by the planning exercises.
1.3 Three Stages of Simulation
There are three principal stages to follow in the process of simulation modelling. These are: the
organization of the baseline data to be projected, the denition of hypotheses (decision or indepen-
dent variables), and the generation of results (result or dependent variables). As depicted in Table
1.1 below, these three stages of simulation correspond to three stages of strategic planning.
Table 1.1 Correspondence between strategic planning and policy simulation
Stage Strategic planning Policy simulation
1
Sector analysis
(Diagnosis)
Data
(Baseline)
2
Policy formulation
(Policies)
Hypotheses
(Policy assumptions)
3
Action Planning
(Plan of actions)
Results
(Projections)
The three stages of simulation based on the demographic simulation approach are explained
further below:
Stage 1: ENTERING BASELINE DATA
The rst stage of simulation is data entry. It consists of collecting and organizing data in population,
the education sector and the macro-economic framework. Most of the baseline data are those of
the base year(s) or the most recent years, which are collected and analyzed during the diagnosis
of the education sector. The diagnosis phase helps also customizing a generic model (e.g. EPSSim)
to the national education system specicities. The degree of renement and the credibility of
a simulation will depend heavily on the quality of this data. If some indispensable data for the
construc tion of a simulation does not exist or is not fully valid and reliable, additional data collection
and research should be carried out.
7
Since a simulation model is the representation of a real education system and its operation mecha-
nism, care must be exercised to capture the most accurate data and information possible. The
nature of data collected and the manner in which it is presented reects the scope and the degree
of complexity of the education system. However, at a minimum, most simulation models draw on
four key categories of data: population and enrolments; teaching and other staff; building and
equipment; and instructional materials (Figure 1.3).
Figure 1.3 Logical sequence of demographic simulation model ow
Population
Teachers and
other staf
Buildings and
equipment
Enrolments at each
education level
Intake, registration
and fow rates
Instructional materials
Yearly recurrent and capital
cost projections
Stage 2: IDENTIFYING POLICY OPTIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS
Once the baseline data resulting from the sector analysis (diagnosis) has been collected and compiled,
the next step is to identify all relevant policy goals, objectives and commitments. This refers to
the policy, organizational, pedagogical, and even socio-economic objectives which consti tute the
variables inuencing the operation of education. The quantitative objectives most frequently used
are the enrolment ratios, intake and ow rates, the supervision ratios (e.g. pupils/ teacher ratio), the
utilization rates of the education buildings and student facilities, and the share of education in the
national budget. Once assembled, the goals/objectives will be classied into decision (independent)
variables and result (dependent) variables. The variables which constitute the policy assumptions in
a simulation are the decision variables.
Table 1.2 displays a set of sample decision variables used in a simulation model under the rst
column. The second column contains the results that can be generated by the simulation model.
8
Table 1.2 Type of variables in primary education used in EPSSim
Independent / decision variables Dependent / result variables
Category "Students
o Intake rate in rst grade
o Flow rate
o Pupil-class ratio
o Proportion of multi-grade classes
o Proportion of double shift classes
o New entrants in rst grade
o Number of pupils
o Gross enrolment ratios
o Number of classes/classrooms
o Number of multi-grade and/or
double shift classes
Category "Jeaching and other staff
o Pupil-teacher ratio
o Turnover and attrition rates
o Staff Supervision rate
o Proportion of non-teaching staff
o Number of teachers required
o Number of other staff required
o Training and recruitment needs
Category "Cost and fnancing
o Initial index value
o Salary scale and other emoluments
o Budgetary allocations
o Macro-economic indicators
o Salary expenses
o Recurrent expenditures
o Investment expenditures
o Financing gap
Stage 3: PROJECTING RESULTS
The projections are the results of the simulation of policy hypotheses in relation to the baseline
data. The simulation provides indicative information on (i) student enrolments and (ii) the necessary
human, physical and nancial means needed to implement defensible development actions as well
as the (iii) the cost estimates and their consequences for budgetary and nancial resources (see
Table 1.2, right column on Dependent variables).
Students (enrolments): Given population data, and the current status and future objective of
student enrolment, promotion and repetition rates, a simulation model is able to project likely
student populations across each sub-sector of the education system in the years to come and
can also be used to test the viability of educational attainment objectives. These data are used to
determine all the following resources of a given education system.
Personnel: Modelling makes it possible to estimate future requirements in the number of teaching
and non-teaching personnel (managerial and supervisory staff, administrative and service personnel,
technical and maintenance workers) over time, by region (depending on the disaggregation level
of the model), and by education level. It also enables the evaluation of the training needs of these
personnel, both at the pre-service and in-service levels.
9
Instructional materials and equipment: A simulation can estimate future needs for materials
and equipment and indicate the requirements for the production and the distribution of these
materials.
Educational facilities: On the basis of the number of students and the variables of pedagogical
management, the simulation has the potential to evaluate the number of buildings and rooms
(both classrooms and other facilities) to build or to rehabilitate over a given time-horizon. It also
indicates the amount of equipment to be purchased and maintenance to be undertaken.
Education costs and nancing: Each category of education inputs above involves costs. Therefore,
the unit costs of education inputs will have to be made available in order to conduct resources
projections. The ultimate purpose of a simulation is the quantication of the required nancial
resources resulting from a particular combination of possible decisions in education policy. But the
quantitative forecasts of educational development depend not only on the policy objectives, but also
on the budgetary implications and the macro-economic feasability of the country. If the nancial
estimates relating to the education sector (total education costs) prove to be too high in relation to
the possibilities of the national macro-economic framework, policy options are to be revised with the
aim of dening bankable and nancially sustainable policy variables.
1.4 Developing Scenarios
Although there is no single pattern followed in the construction of a development scenario, it is
nevertheless possible to identify a commonly used method characterized by the following three
principal stages: the simulation model is rst used as a tool for simple projection in the literal sense
of the word, then as a tool for exploration, and nally as a tool for forecasting.
Establishing the status quo scenario (projection): The rst scenario, also called a baseline
or status quo scenario, consists of a simple projection based on past trends. It is concerned with
under standing the past trends and outcomes where there is no change to current education policy
set tings. This status quo scenario makes it possible to weigh the consequences of the laissez-faire
policy to identify and specify the desirable changes to be adopted within the framework of a new
sector development or reform.
Mapping alternative scenarios (exploration): The second stage consists of developing alter-
native scenarios (typically two or three) based on the objectives resulting from the application of
new policies in relation to past trends (including in relation to the macro-economic and budgetary
framework). This stage allows planners and policy makers to examine the future impacts of different
variable changes on education outcomes and nancial sustainability. It is in the course of this stage
that the feasibility of the proposed policies and strategies can be tested. The results of the different
scenarios can then be used to inform the policy debate with a view to reaching a consensus on
the objectives of education policy. Once different options have been carefully weighed, a scenario
(i.e. a set of agreed and proposed policy options) will progressively acquire certain stability and will
result in what is called a reference scenario
10
10
Dening the reference scenario (forecasting): The third phase is the adoption of a scenario
resulting from the combination of several objectives previously tested and discussed among policy
makers. Once veried on the policy and technical level, this scenario is rened with the degree
of information required in the programming of actions. It becomes the reference scenario for
the future education plan, making it possible to forecast development actions and the nancial
resources required. Importantly, it also forms the foundation upon which monitoring, evaluation
and further improvement can be undertaken. Effective monitoring and evaluation is facilitated by
the fact that simulation models produce quantied, disaggregated annual indicators relating to the
educational systems organization and operation at all levels.
11
Chapter 2
Starting EPSSim
Please note: This guide is applicable for both EPSSim versions 2.9b and 2.9c; however, gures used
in this guide are based on EPSSim 2.9b. The main difference between the two versions is that 2.9c
has public and private disaggregation of educational programme whereas 2.9b is rst organized
according to urban and rural populations and then public and private provision.
1

2.1 EPSSim as a Demographic Simulation Model
The Education Policy and Strategy Simulation (EPSSim) model was developed within UNESCOs
Education Sector in 2001, building on simulation models in use at UNESCO during the 1990s. It has
since undergone continuous development.
In terms of scope, EPSSim is a sector-wide and goals-based (demographic approach) generic model
and aims to create broad support by reecting the concerns and interests of diverse stakeholders
beyond Ministries of Education, Finance or Planning, by including additional components at the
intersection of education and other sectors, such as pro-poor targeting, school feeding etc., that
have not in the past been part of education models. This is done in response to country requests.
A particular aim is to serve as a UN-wide model around which discussions with international partners
can be based and to facilitate integration with international policy frameworks.
At the national level, EPSSim can accompany countries though all stages of the strategic plan ning
and management cycle. The model was conceived with a view to providing technical and metho-
dological support to national administrations and specialists in education ministries in their efforts
to formulate credible education development plans and programmes, including in the context of
the Education for All (EFA) goals.
The aim of the model is also to provide a potentially self-contained package (including self-training
features) that can be deployed by country planners without external support and can be adapted
within a typical range of structural alternatives with minimal expertise. For instance, the model
contains some built-in training modules which provide exercises on the key indicators used in the
model and enable users to conduct a simplied simulation using hypothetical data (refer to Part 2:
Practicing EPSSim in this manual).
1 Please note that a table containing useful references within the model (including worksheet references) is provided at Annex 1.
Please note that the explanation given below describes the generic form of the EPSSim
structure, i.e. before its adaptation to a specic country context. Therefore the adapted
EPSSim structure may differ from that explained in this guide.
2 / Starting EPSSim
12
Figure 2.1 Simplied chart of EPSSim simulation ow
Flowdirection
Iterative process
Results Parameters/hypotheses Baseline data Legend
Diferent
modalities
of resource
utilization
School
enrolments
at diferent
education levels
Graduates from a cycle
or level of education
Intake rate,
enrolment and
fow rates
School-age
population
School-age
population for
frst grade of
primary
education
+ Teachers
and other
personnel;
+ Classrooms
and other
rooms;
+ Educational
materials and
equipment
Macro-
Economic
and
budgetary
indicators
Educational
expenditures
(recurrent and
investment)
As shown in Figure 2.1, EPSSim starts by computing the projected intake, enrolment and ow rates
on the basis of population data, enrolment status and policy objectives. The number of enrolments
by level and type of education, combined with the current and future modalities of resource utili za-
tion (teaching staff, equipment, infrastructure, etc.), enable the estimation of future requirements
of teachers, non-teaching staff, instructional materials, educational facilities and so forth. These
projected requirements, together with cost-related data and hypothesis, provide information on
nancial requirements and the possible nancing gaps associated with certain education policy
goals.
2.2 Installing EPSSim
EPSSim has been designed to be adaptable to country needs, even down to the menus in the
macros. (See chapter 5 for more information on macros.) This guide will outline how to do so, and
provides screen shots to aid comprehension. You may skip through to nd what you need, or read
the sections consecutively.
The next part of this guide explains how to use EPSSim and takes the user through the steps
involved in the modelling process.
The EPSSim software can be downloaded from UNESCOs Inter-Agency Network on Education
Simu lation Models (INESM) website
2
along with other computer simulation programmes used by
Inter national Organizations. On the Explore tab, you may access the full education simulation
model (ESM) database, where EPSSim is downloadable, free for all users. Choose either EPSSim
2.9b or 2.9c to download on your computer and unzip it.
The system requirement for EPSSim is at least Microsoft Excel (2003 or 2007 version).
2 INESM website address: http://inesm.education.unesco.org/en/esm-library/esm/epssim.
13
2.2A Enabling Macros and Setting Security Level for Excel 2003
When you open (or double click) the EPSSim le in Excel 2003, a security warning dialog box will
pop up asking you to choose either DisabIe Macros or EnabIe Macros
3
(Figure 2.2). You must
choose EnabIe Macros in order to activate the two specialized menus (EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c and
EPSSim Utilities) and other automatic functions that we will explore at a later stage. Once you
enable macros, you will see a message box informing successful installation of EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c
and EPSSim Utilities menu on the menu bar (Figure 2.3).
Figure 2.2 Security Warning dialog box (Excel 2003)
Figure 2.3 Message box conrming the successful installation of EPSSim menus (Excel 2003)
3 A macro is a short programme written to automate several and/or repetitive steps
If EPSSim opens without showing the box in Figure 2.2 but instead showing Figure 2.4,
it means the security level of your Microsoft Excel is not set to Medium.
2 / Starting EPSSim
14
Figure 2.4 Macro Security (Excel 2003)
Figure 2.5 Macro Security (Excel 2003)
To reset the security level, click ok and go to Tools, then Macro and Security (Figure 2.5).
Click on Security and set the security level as Medium (Figure 2.6, next page). This security
level will allow you to choose whether or not to run macros when using EPSSim. In order to
activate macros, it is necessary to reopen EPSSim and choose Enable Macros. EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c
and EPSSim Utilities will appear on the menu bar.
15
Figure 2.6 Setting Macro Security Level (Excel 2003)

2.2B Starting EPSSim for Excel 2007 Users
For users of Excel 2007, the procedure of enabling macros is slightly different. When EPSSim opens,
a message will appear underneath the menu bar as highlighted in Figure 2.7 below.

To enable macros, you need to change the security setting by rst clicking OpIions (Figure 2.7);
then selecting EnabIe Ihis conIenI and clicking ok (Figure 2.7). Next, click OK when the New
menus [EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c and EPSSim Utilities] have been created on the menu bar then click the
Add-Ins tab and you will now nd the two menus EP55im UIiIiIies and EP55im 2.9bl2.9c as
shown in Figure 2.8.
2 / Starting EPSSim
16
Figure 2.7 Security Options (Excel 2007)

Figure 2.8 Add-Ins Menu bar (Excel 2007)

17
2.3

Introduction to the Start Worksheet
4

Please note that while similar, the EPSSim display differs slightly between Excel 2003 and
2007. This guide has been written according to the features of Excel 2003.
You will rst encounter a start worksheet (Figure 2.9) where you can nd basic information on
EPSSim and gain access to various utilities.
Figure 2.9 Introductory Windows for EPSSim 2.9b

The numbers in Figure 2.9 correspond to the following four explanations.
# 1 EPSSim 2.9 AND EPSSim UTILITIES MENUS
Once you have enabled macros, you will have two add-in menus (EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c and EPSSim
Utilities) installed on your menu bar. These menus will be used throughout the simulation process
and will be explained further in Chapters 3 and 4.
# 2 VERSIONS OF EPSSim
Cell E2 provides the reference to the version of EPSSim you have downloaded (in this case
EPSSim 2.9b).
# 3 BASELINE YEAR
In the yellow cell (cell B4), users are required to specify the starting year of data that will be
used in the simulation process, or the baseline year. Once this is entered, the model will adjust
to using that year as the baseline year for all worksheets (i.e. if the data used is from 2006, cell
B4 will be set to 2006, which will be taken as the baseline year, and the simulation process will
consequently be starting from year 2006).
4 Worksheet refers to a sheet of working space in Excel. You can add new or delete existing worksheets according to your
needs. In EPSSim, worksheets are already created for your use.
2 / Starting EPSSim
18
# 4 BUTTONS ON THE START WORKSHEET
Button Function
This icon allows you to refresh the menu bar. When changes are made
on the menus from the menu sheet, you will need to refresh the menu
with this button.
Five different languages are available for user: English, French, Spanish,
Portuguese, and Arabic. By clicking the Language button, a pop up box
will appear from where you can select your language. It is also possible
to choose the language you desire from the EPSSim Utilities menu
by choosing the Language menu item. Please note that additional
macros can be added to make EPSSim bilingual in languages other
than those listed, for countries in which none of these are spoken
widely. This level of detail is not covered in this guide. Kindly consult
an Excel specialist about your requirements.)
When you click the Display All button, EPSSim will display all the
worksheets used in EPSSim. If you want to learn more about the
worksheets used in the model, please go to Annex 1 where you can
nd summarized information on each.
The Hide All button will close all the worksheets currently open,
leaving only the Start worksheet open.
Clicking the Flow Chart button provides a ow chart overview of how
EPSSim is structured. It also allows you to access various worksheets
by clicking each button in the ow chart. For example, if you click
Population, it will open the population worksheet (Figure 3.10). Once
you click a button you must close the Flow Chart by clicking OK to view
the spreadsheet that was opened behind the chart.
19
Figure 2.10 Flow Chart

2 / Starting EPSSim
20
Chapter 3
EPSSim 2.9b / 2.9c Menu
3.1 Overview
As shown in Chapter 2, EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c and EPSSim Utilities menus are created on the main
menu bar (for those using Excel 2007, they will appear under the Add ins tab). Chapter 3 will
out line the functions contained in EPSSim 2.9b/ 2.9c as shown in Figure 3.1, and Chapter 4 will
explain those in EPSSim Utilities.
Figure 3.1 EPSSim 2.9b Menu
The EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c menu has six different functions:
1 Whats EPSSim? provides basic information on EPSSim, a glossary of indicators, EPSSim
shortcut keys and a link to EPSSim Help Online.
2 Population Data includes the worksheet where population data have to be entered and
information on the number of children who drop out.
3 Simulation/Projections provides links to open the separate worksheets for each level and
type of education.
4 Cost Projections menu is disaggregated by each educational level and type.
5 Additional Costing is available if users wish to include the impact of HIV/AIDS, demand
side intervention, and CFS (Child Friendly School) programmes in the cost projections.
6 Scenarios can be generated as a result of simulations and projections.
21
Further information on each of these options is outlined below.
3.2 Whats EPSSim? Tab
The rst menu item of EPSSim 2.9b/ 2.9c is Whats EPSSim?, which provides useful basic information
on EPSSim. Under this menu there are three submenu options:
AbouI EP55im 1
5hov IndicaIors and,
EP55im 5horIcuI Keys.
1 About EPSSim
Clicking About EPPSim will launch a pop up window which provides introductory information about
the two latest versions of EPSSim, together with some information on the origins of the project.
Figure 3.2 Introductory Pop-up box

2 Show Indicators (GLOSSARY)
5hov IndicaIors presents a glossary of indicators where you can search for denitions of the
indicators used in EPSSim (Figure 3.3). You may either search for a specic indicator using the
search window at the top, or scroll through each in turn by clicking on Next. The list of indicators
is also accessible via the worksheet named GIossary (the last worksheet).
3 / EPSSim 2.9b / 2.9c Menu
22
Figure 3.3 Show Indicators (Glossary)
3 EPSSim Shortcut Keys
This menu provides information on various short cut keys which have been developed for the model.
4 EPSSim Help Online
This option links to a website (INESM) where this User Guide and further information on EPSSim
can be found.
3.3 Population Data Tab
After reviewing these introductory features of EPSSim, one can begin designing simu lations and
projections with statistical and policy data. As outlined above, entering data on population worksheet
is the rst step for simulation.
On the Population Data menu shown in Figure 3.4, there are two different submenus: Population
Projections and Dropout Children. Both of these submenus will prompt you to a worksheet
named POP.
23
Figure 3.4 Population Data Menu
1 POPULATION PROJECTIONS WORKSHEET
As EPSSim is a demographic model, population data is an essential part of its structure and process.
Users need to enter age disaggregated baseline year population data on numbers of males and
females (also disaggregated by urban and rural for 2.9b only) for each age from 0 to 18. From the
age of 19+, ages are grouped into 19 to 23, 24 to 49, 50 to 64 and 65+. The rate of population
growth should also be inserted at the top of the spreadsheet (again disaggregated by urban and
rural for those using 2.9b).
It is important that the population data are correct and veriable. Most ofcial statistical insti-
tu tions will hold data which are appropriate to use in this model.
As a general rule, in EPSSim, the cells which require your data are indicated in yellow
(see for example, Figure 4.5). All others are generated using internal formulae and
should not be altered.
If you do not have age specic population data but have age grouped populations, it is
possible to disaggregate by using the Sprague Multiplier which is embedded in the model.
This can be found under Extra Utilities and its usage is explained in Chapter 5.
24
Figure 3.5 Population Projections Data

1 DROPOUT CHILDREN WORKSHEET
This menu is incorporated in the same worksheet as population data. There are three parts within
this submenu;
o Dropout children covers the number of children who are expected to drop out from
grade 1 to 7. Projections on dropout children are derived from the primary education
worksheet, therefore no data entry is required. Dropout children are calculated by multi-
plying total student enrolments of grade X in primary education by dropout rate of grade
X (can be found in worksheet COH).
o Population of age 15 or older displays the number of students who are age 15 or older.
No data entry is required as the number of students is calculated automatically from the
population data. (It is sum of the population aged 15+.)
o Graduates from Primary Education reaching age 15+ requires data entry from the base-
line year and for the four consecutive years. This information is used to calculate the
num ber of the expected literate population (age 15+) in the Non Formal Education tab.
According to international standards, those who have been through grade 5 (normally 11
years old) are expected to be literate. However, when calculating the literate population,
we only take adults (age 15+) into consideration, therefore, in order to obtain the
number of graduates from primary education reaching the age 15+, the model takes
25
the graduates of primary education in 2006 (or the equivalent baseline year) and leaves
a gap of four years. Since the baseline year is 2006 in this EPSSim exercise, we take those
students who have graduated from primary school in 2006 and place them in 2010
(assuming that the number remains the same). Therefore, yellow cells in 2006 to 2009
should be taken from the national statistics. If this data is not available, you can assume
that it is the number of graduates from primary education in 2002 to 2005. The number
of dropout children becomes 0 in 2016-2020 because the number is calculated by
multiplying the dropout rates by the number of enrolled students where dropout rates
are set as 0 after 2016 in primary education.
Figure 3.6 Dropout Projections Data

3.4 Simulations/Projections Tab
Once the data entry on population has been completed, it is possible to start the process of entering
in education data as well as policy options and commencing simulation and projection.
1 Structure of Simulations/Projections Menu
The seven sub-menus under the Simulation/Projections menu correspond to the seven standard levels
and types of education: 1) EarIy ChiIdhood Care and EducaIion (ECCE), 2) Primary EducaIion
(PRIM), 3) 5econdary EducaIion I (SEC1) (commonly used to denote Lower Secondary Education),
4) 5econdary EducaIion II (SEC2) (commonly used to refer to Upper Secondary Education), 5)
Higher EducaIion (HED) 6) Teacher EducaIion (TED) and 7) Non-formaI EducaIion (NFE) (see
Figure 3.7). Clicking on a sub-menu launches the appropriate worksheet.
26
Figure 3.7 Simulations and Projections Menu

2 Data Entry for Simulations/Projections
Within the simulation and projection worksheets, users are required to enter education data on the
baseline year and set policy objectives. There are four default educational input categories in the
simulation and projections worksheets namely:
A. EnroImenIs, B. Teaching and non-Ieaching sIa!!, C. InsIrucIionaI maIeriaIs, and D. In!ra-
sIrucIure and !aciIiIies (Figure 4.9).
Figure 3.8 Educational Inputs in Primary Education

Data shall be entered in three different columns. Each column correspond to a specic set of data
(cells coloured in yellow are the ones to be lled in);
o Baseline (Column B): This is where baseline year educational data is entered.
o Targets/Options (Column C): This refers to the policy targets, objectives or options that are
expected or desired.
o Number of years (Column D): This refers to the number of years from the baseline year
in which to achieve the policy objectives set in column C. Note that the period of time to
achieve a given target can vary between indicators.
The combination of these three columns of data will therefore reect the degree of ambition of
the policy settings being tested and will be the chief determinants of the cost and scale of required
27
resources. While the baseline data remain xed as they refer to a ground situation, the policy
objectives (targets/options and number of years) will be the mechanisms by which alternative policy
scenarios can be tested.
To assist in gauging the pace of change, the model automatically calculates the annual increment
rate (Column E) by subtracting baseline data (where you are now, column B) from target data
(where you would like to be, column C) and dividing the results by the number of years within
which you are expecting to achieve this policy target (column D).
Example: Consider the promotion rate of primary school in Figure 4.8. In the baseline year,
the promotion rate is 86% (column B) and it is set to achieve a target rate of 99% (column
C) in 10 years (Number of years, column D). Therefore, in column E, the annual increment
rate rst calculates the difference between the target rate 99 (C) and the given rate 86 (B)
and then divides that number by the number of years, which is 10. This results in an average
annual incremental rate of 1.3% (Figure 3.9).
Figure 3.9 Simulations and Projections Menu
3.5 Cost Projections Tab
This data on resources (educational inputs of the education system) then provide the basis on
which the cost projections can be calculated, an integral feature of the model and a crucial part of
the planning process. The Cost Projections menu mirrors the seven levels and types of education
(Figure 3.10). All of the submenus under cost projections are directed to only one worksheet
(COST), however clicking on different sub-menus will direct the screen to the relevant cell within
the worksheet.
28
Figure 3.10 Cost Projections Menu

To view the detail for each level or type of education, click on the + button to the far left
of the worksheet (refer to section 4.8 for further information).
The Cost worksheet has three categories; 1) CosI ProjecIions by EducaIion LeveI, 2) ExpendiIure
framevork, and 3) ExpendiIure aIance udgeI vs. 5imuIaIion (Figure 3.11).
Figure 3.11 Results of Financial Forecasts
1 Cost Projections/Simulations by Education Level/Type
This section of the worksheet incorporates unit costs and other expenditure-related data for the cost
projections on each education level and type. As shown in Figure 3.12, below there are two types of
cost; recurrent and capital costs. Recurrent costs (1) are costs that occur repetitively on a continuing
basis for the day-to-day functioning of the system, such as teachers wages, administrative costs,
and the costs of teaching materials (because their lifespan is relatively short). Capital costs (2) refer
to construction and investment expenditure, including annual new construction (including water/
sanitation facilities), new equipment (including furniture), and reconstruction (including separate
water/sanitation facilities).
29
In the cost projection, the same rule applies as per the education simulation and projection. On the
baseline, users provide information on the relevant costs in the yellow-coloured cells and set policy
objectives.
For certain categories of expenses, the model will ask for annual increments, rather than targets or
numbers of years. These will be indicated by the location of the yellow cell. For example, teachers
wages (disaggregated by a default setting providing four classications of teacher/principal) are
measured according to a wage standard in reference to GDP. The model therefore asks for data
on GDP per capita
5
(3) and the Per capita GDP multiples (4) which correspond to the different
wage categories. The Salary Stabilization Index (5) is also multiplied according to the annual
increase in the percentage of wage. In addition, it is assumed that certain categories of teachers (in
rural areas for instance) receive a salary bonus by a certain percentage, which can either be set as
0 or adjusted depending on the country data.
If the data on teachers wages are available, it is ALSO possible to use the average wage of teachers
instead of GDP per capita in estimating the wage standard. However, in that case, the salary
stabilization index must be set to reect the committed or expected annual increase in the wages.
Therefore, the formulae to calculate teachers wages change by removing GDP per capita (cell F7)
and dragging the changed formula across all the categories on teachers wages.
Apart from the costs on wages, other recurrent costs are multiplied alongside relevant unit costs.

5 GDP per capita is automatically calculated (see 3 in the graph below) from the GDP that has to be informed under the expen-
diture framework in the COST worksheet and from the total population calculated in the POP worksheet.
In addition to the above main costs, there are additional costs associated with demand-side
interventions (child friendly school (CFS) features and HIV/AIDS programmes), which could
be included if applicable. (Further explanation can be found in section 4.6.)
30
Figure 3.12 Cost Projections by Education Level
2 Expenditure Framework
In this Expenditure Framework part of the worksheet (Figure 3.13 below), most of the expenditure-
related data will need to be obtained from other ministries such as those with responsibility for
public nance, budgeting, economic planning and development.
First of all, total GDP must be entered on the baseline year with the annual increment rate (GDP
growth rate), which will be used in projecting GDP in the following years. However, as GDP growth
rates vary according to both domestic and international economic circumstances, it is also possible
to enter the ofcial GDP projecIions (1) made by the Ministry of Finance (often jointly with IMF)
over the planned period rather than assume a linear relationship with a xed GDP growth.
31
The second step is to enter Consolidated government resources (2), which is split into recurrent
and capital and expressed as a percentage of GDP. This basically refers to how much revenue the
government (at all levels) establishes as a percentage of total GDP (total national budget).
Third, it is crucial to nd out how much of those consolidated government resources are spent
on or allocated for education. This corresponds to Domestic resources for education (3) that
is expressed as a percentage of government consolidated resources. This information will be used
to calculate the difference between available budget and cost simulation. It also allows to auto-
matically calculate the share of education as a % of GDP (see the line above Number 1 in the gure
below) which is a useful indicator in policy negotiations with international donors or the Ministry
of Finance.
Once domestic resources for education are dened, it is then necessary to provide a Breakdown
of resources by level and type of education (4).
In this section, users need to specify the policy target for the breakdown and enter in the number
of years.
Figure 3.13 Expenditure Framework

32
3 Expenditure Balance
This part of the worksheet compares the cost projections data and the available government
resources to assess the resource implications and nancial requirements for achieving the govern-
ments policy options within the specied macroeconomic and budgetary frameworks. In addition
to government resources, Stakeholders contributions are also considered, such as school fees
paid by households as well as donor aid (Figure 3.14).
Figure 3.14 Expenditure Balance

As a result, balance is derived using the following formula:
Balance = Total Education system Cost Projection
(Government resources + Stakeholders contributions - Households and Donors)
33
3.6 Additional Costing Tab
The Additional Costing section enables users to enter non-standard additional costs that may be
incurred by the educational system (Figure 3.15). Additional costs comprise 1) costing of the impact
of and responses to HIV/AIDS in education, 2) Demand-Side Interventions, and 3) Child Friendly
School (CFS) Features.
The model defaults do not include estimates from these worksheets, however, they can easily be
included by adjusting the rule in the CO5T tab (see below).

When entering data for these expenditures, it is important to ensure that they do not
duplicate expenditures elsewhere in the model.
Figure 3.15 Additional Costing
1 Costing HIV/AIDS Impact and Responses in Education Worksheet
This tab can be used to calculate the impact of HIV/AIDS in the education system. While many
methodologies are used in different countries, this model draws on pupil and/or staff related data
on HIV/AIDS to calculate the nancial impact of this pandemic on the education system.
Pupil-related impacts and costs of HIV/AIDS could include the proportion of HIV-positive pupils and
the associated costs in providing treatment, counselling, and the proportion of children who are
AIDS orphans and the costs of enrolling these students in the school system. A similar logic applies
to staff-related HIV/AIDS costs.

Once you have lled in HIV/AIDS worksheet, go back to COST worksheet, expand the
HIV/AIDS RELATED COSTS section and type 1 in the relevant yellow cells this will ensure
that the model draws on the data you have just entered. To restore the default settings, so
that these programmes are not included, simply type 0.
34
2 Costing Demand-Side Interventions Worksheet
Demand-side interventions could also be added to the overall cost projections. This could include
pro-poor subsidies, provision of uniforms, school feeding programmes, housing for teachers, trans-
por tation services, school infrastructure, and boarding facilities for students.
3 Costing Child-Friendly School (CFS) Features
This submenu contains Child-Friendly School features that can be further utilized and linked to the
overall cost projections. It calculates the nancial impact of applying CFS features and standards as
advocated by UNICEF in its educational interventions at country level.
Examples of CFS features include health check ups on students and teachers, recruitment of person nel
for school clinics and school feeding, training of teachers in peer support, leadership and manage ment,
schools having gender parity and refurbishing new exible and age-appropriate desks and chairs.
3.7 Scenarios Tab
Now that the cost data is included and projections can be made, it is possible to begin constructing
different scenarios. There are three submenus under Scenarios; (1) Generate scenarios, (2) View all
scenarios charts, and (3) Print all scenarios (Figure 3.16).
Figure 3.16 Scenarios Menu

34
Once you have lled in CFS worksheet, go back to COST worksheet, expand the CFS COSTS section
and type 1 in the relevant yellow cells this will ensure that the model draws on the data you
have just entered. To restore the default that these programmes are not included, simply type 0.
Once you have lled the details into the DSI (ADD in 2.9c) worksheet, go back to COST
worksheet, expand the DSI COSTS section and type 1 in the relevant yellow cells this
will ensure that the model draws on the data you have just entered. To restore the default
settings, so that these programmes are not included, simply type 0.
35
1 Generate Scenario
Once the necessary baseline, policy objective and costing data are entered, it is possible to generate
a corresponding scenario. Under the drop-down menu of EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c, you can nd a menu
named Scenarios where you will see a submenu called Generate Scenarios.
When you select the Generate Scenarios menu, you will be asked to enter a name and description
of the scenario (Figure 3.17). The names of the scenarios vary across the needs and specicity of
scenarios. For example, scenario 1 could be called the status quo scenario, the second scenario
could be the alternative scenario, and the last could be the reference scenario. For more information
about scenario design, please refer to Section 1.1.
Figure 3.17 Dialogue box for Generating Scenarios

Once the name of the scenario you are testing and its description (main variables) are entered (or
you might choose not to enter any names or descriptions), click ok. The below dialogue box (Figure
3.18) will pop up. You need to click OK in order to view the scenario that you have created.
Figure 3.18 Dialogue box to validate scenarios

36
The main features of scenarios are stored and displayed in the ViewScenarios worksheet. This
work sheet recaps key indicators and data projections from the other projection worksheets
which pro vides a peak into how an education system may evolve, according to the policy para-
meters tested.
2 View all Scenarios Charts
It is also possible to view scenarios in a chart form by choosing the view all scenarios charts button
under the scenarios menu (Figure 3.19). The print button will direct the chart to your default
printer.
Figure 3.19 Charts on Scenario
3 Print All Scenarios
Scenarios are formatted to t in one page in order to facilitate viewing the charts at a glance. This
page can be auctioned by choosing print all scenarios under the scenarios menu.

Up to four scenarios can be created and viewed with key indicators for comparison.
If you want to discard a scenario to replace it with another one, click the Delete this
scenario button.
37
3.8 Technical Tips on EPSSim
To facilitate the use of EPSSim, some small tips have been collated below:
1 Contracting and Expanding Rows
On the left hand corner of each worksheet, you will nd a little box with numbers 1, 2 or 1, 2, 3.
This is to facilitate users to contract or expand the relevant cells in use.
o Click 1 to conIracI aII Ihe open ceIIs leaving just the titles.
o Click 2 to expand Io shov Ihe IiIIes and subIiIIes.
o Click 3 to expand Io dispIay aII rovs.
Some of the worksheets only have numbers 1 and 2 where number 1 gives large titles and 2 displays
all of the cells (Figure 3.20).
You can also expand or contract individual sections of the worksheet by clicking on the + and -
buttons to the left of the relevant section.
Figure 3.20 Contracting and Expanding Rows

Hyperlinks to individual sections within the worksheet have also been included in Column A to
improve navigation (Figure 3.21).
38
Figure 3.21 Using hyperlinks
Finally, you can select the whole worksheet by clicking the rectangular button on the left hand
corner of the screen (Figure 3.22) and go to Format, Rows, Unhide to expand the cells.
Figure 3.22 Selecting the whole worksheet
2 Contracting and Expanding Columns
There are four different options you can choose for viewing columns, each of which can be accessed
using the drop-down menu in row 1 (Figure 3.23):
o Click DispIay DaIa CoIumn OnIy If you wish you view just the baseline data column (B).
o Click DispIay HypoIhesis CoIumns OnIy to show just the policy objectives columns
(C, D & E).
o Click DispIay DaIa and HypoIhesis CoIumns OnIy to show the baseline and policy
objectives columns (B, C, D and E).
o Click DispIay AII CoIumns Io shov aII Ihe coIumns in the worksheet, including the
projec tion results.
39
Figure 3.23 Contracting or Expanding Columns
3 Viewing and Moving Worksheets
There are numerous worksheets used in EPSSim, therefore, displaying all the worksheet tabs
at once is difcult. Users can click on the arrows on the bottom left-hand corner to shift from
one worksheet to another (Figure 3.24). The rst and the fourth arrows will jump straight to the
beginning or the end of the set of spreadsheets whereas the second and third arrows will shift only
one tab at a time in the direction in which the arrows are pointing. To change the order of the
worksheets, simply click and drag the tabs.
Figure 3.24 Viewing and Moving worksheets
4 Saving EPSSim
When closing or exiting EPSSim, you will be prompted: Do you want to save the changes you
made to ? Select Yes and choose fiIe, then 5ave as, in order to save the simulation model with
a different name (for example, EFASim.xls).
40

Chapter 4
EPSSim 2.9b and 2.9c Utilities Menu
The EPSSim Utilities functions are designed to facilitate: 1) summarizing and displaying the data, 2)
utilizing ready-to-use extra utilities for calculating educational indicators, and 3) familiarizing the
model through pre-simulation exercises. In addition, there is a 4) language menu where users can
convert EPSSim into ve preset languages.
Figure 4.1 EPSSim Utilities Menu

As shown in Figure 4.2, there are six menus which can be drawn upon according to need. The uses
of each of these menus will be detailed in this chapter.
Figure 4.2 EPSSim Utilities Menu

41
4.1 Summaries Tab
The Summaries menu is where you can nd summarised data used in the process of simulation and
projections in the form of Recapitulation, Snapshots of indicators and costs and Shapshots
of unit costs (Figure 4.2). Clicking on the sub-menus under Summaries will simply display the
summarized projected data and no data entry is required.
1 Recapitulation (Primary to Higher) Worksheet
This submenu reiterates the results of the simulation and provides a recap of the projected
educational inputs (including enrolments, teaching and non teaching staff, textbooks and teacher
guides, infrastructures and facilities). Recapitulation outlines summarized data on four education
levels: primary, secondary 1, secondary 2 and tertiary education.
2 Snapshot: Indicators and Costs Worksheet
This sub-menu displays projected educational indicators and costs, as well as the budgetary and
nan cial framework by levels and type of education.
There are three main titles related to indicators;
o Access and Equality presents summarized data on literacy rate, gross enrolment ratio,
registration rates.
o Quality and Efciency presents indicators including survival rate, wastage rate, pupil/
teacher ratio, and pupil/classroom ratio.
o Budgetary and Financing Frameworks presents data on costs for all levels and types
of education.
3 Snapshot: Unit Costs (Public)
This worksheet includes recurrent and capital 1) unit cost per pupil, 2) the costs as % of GDP per
capita and 3) per capita costs for each level and type of education.
Unit costs per pupil (1) refer to total costs divided by the number of enrolled pupils for each
education level and type. The cost as a percentage of GDP (2) per capita is used to measure the
percentage of each unit cost in comparison to GDP per capita. In addition, the costs per capita (3)
are calculated by dividing the costs by the total population.
Snapshot of unit costs is also placed in the same worksheet as Snapshot of indicators and costs,
thus when you click Snapshot: Unit Costs in the Summaries menu, you will be directed to the
same worksheet as snapshots but under the heading of Information on Unit Costs.
4 / EPSSim 2.9b and 2.9c Utilities Menu
42
4.2 View Charts
The View Charts menu offers six submenus on education indicators (Figure 4.3) where you can
nd charts on every education level and type.
Figure 4.3 View Charts Menu
1 Common format of Charts (Figure 4.4)
o X and Y axis: X axis refers to the year, which starts from the baseline year to the target
year. Y axis presents the number of enrolled students, number of teachers, number of class-
rooms, rates on efciency indicators, percentage of GER, and scale of costs depending on
the subject of the charts.
o Legend: The white description box underneath the chart that provides information on the
level of education and explanation of the colored lines.
o Next and Previous: These buttons allow you to navigate between charts.
o Print: After clicking this button, the current chart will be printed automatically from your
default printer.
o Editing the chart: It is not possible to edit the chart directly on the pop up box. Therefore,
users should go to the worksheet named charts 1 through charts 6 to edit relevant charts.
2 Enrolments
The enrolment rate of each education level and type is displayed in chart form (Figure 4.4). Click
next to scroll through the enrolment rate charts for each level of education (pre-primary to tertiary).
The blue line on the chart refers to the enrolment rate of male students and the pink refers to
female students.
43
Figure 4.4 Enrolments Chart

3 Teachers
The charts on teachers show the total (blue line) and new requirements (pink line) of teachers. In
version 2.9b, total requirements of teachers refer to the total number of teachers needed in both
urban and rural areas. The gures underpinning the new teacher requirements refer to the teachers
to be recruited to meet demand, taking into account the attrition rate.
4 New Constructions
Clicking on the submenu New Constructions will launch the charts corresponding to school
facilities. The charts draw on the total number of classrooms versus the number of new classrooms
to be built.
5 Efciency in Primary Education
The efciency charts display the results of the exercise with regard to the efciency indicators
(number of years wasted per 1000 pupils, survival rates, coefcient of efciency, average study time
of the cohort, wastage rate and completion rate in public primary school). These charts are related
to the internal efciency in primary school, which can be found in the cohort worksheet (COH) and
which is explained further in Annex 3 below.
6 Gross Enrolments Ratios
GER shows the charts on Gross Enrolment Ratios. The gross enrolment ratio refers to the total
enrolment in a specic level of education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the eligible
ofcial school-age population corresponding to the same level of education in a given school-year.
44
It is calculated by dividing the number of pupils enrolled in a given level of education by the population
of the age-group which ofcially corresponds to the given level of education. The blue line on the
chart refers to the GER of male students whereas the pink refers to the GER of female students.
7 Cost Projections
Cost related data (recurrent and capital costs, total education costs, and funding gap) are presented
in chart form under the sub-menu of Cost Projections.
4.3 Extra Utilities
The ExIra UIiIiIies menu contains ve submenus as shown in Figure 4.5. This menu serves as
a tool to facilitate the calculation and generation of relevant data (submenus 1 to 3), to explain
educational indicators (submenu 4) and to display the root menu sheet to be adapted if needed
(submenu 5). Each of these is further explained below.
Figure 4.5 Extra Utilities
1 Calculate Flow Rates
This utility enables the user to calculate the ow rates (promotion, repetition and drop-out rates),
which are to be informed in the education projection worksheets. To this end, users enter the
enrolment data of two consecutive years and the number of repeaters in the second year (who
are from the previous year) in the yellow cells. The ow rates will then be displayed in columns L
through Q (Figure 4.6).
Figure 4.6 Calculating Flow Rates
45
2 Cohort Analysis (Also See Annex 3)
This utility enables users to calculate a number of efciency indicators of an education system using
the reconstituted cohort analysis technique. Users are required to specify the information in the yellow
cells (A3 to A5), namely entering the starting year, number of grades to analyze, and the number
of times that students are allowed to repeat (choose either 2 or 3). This will provide the structure of
further data entry. Then click Start/Restart and ll in the remaining yellow cells. This operation will
display the ow rates and the indicators of internal efciency including basic efciency indicators,
average duration of study, wasted years by pupil, and survival rates (Figure 4.7).
Figure 4.7 Cohort Analysis

Sprague Multipliers
The Sprague Multipliers calculate age-specic population data when population data are only available
by age group (most frequently by 5-year groupings, for example, from the age 0-4, 5-9 and 10-14
etc). In essence, it is a disaggregation tool to obtain age specic population gures.
This utility can be used in two ways:
o Click the 5IarI button and a 5prague MuIIipIier DaIa EnIry form box will appear. Enter
the age group population data then click OK. Age-specic population data will be auto-
matically calculated and displayed from age 0 to 24 (school ages). You can insert up to ve
different sets of population data on one worksheet (Figure 4.8, below).
o Alternatively, within the same worksheet, if you need a complete series of age specic data,
go down to cell B63 to nd a more comprehensive form of Sprague multipliers, which
serve the same purpose but provides age specic data up to the age of 75+. Insert the
age-group population data in the yellow cells. Once you enter the data on four age groups,
age-specic data will start appearing in the green cells (Figure 4.9, below).
46
Figure 4.8 Sprague Multipliers 1
Figure 4.9 Sprague Multipliers 2

47
3 Educational Indicators
Through this menu users can nd the denitions of educational indicators and the method by
which they are calculated. Indicators are categorized into: enrolment ratios, intake rates, ow and
transition rates, outputs and efciency of the system, teacher-related indicators, infrastructure
related indicators, literacy rates and linear or exponential growth.
As shown in Figure 4.10 below, eight different categories of indicators are listed and explained.
Clicking the blue titles at the top will open indicator denitions for that category (for example,
clicking ENROLMENT RATIOS, will reveal the denitions and calculations for Gross enrolment
ratio (GER), Net enrolment ratio (NER) and Age specic enrolment ratio (ASER). The indicators
are calculated in the yellow cells, so by double clicking the yellow cells, you will be able to see
the formulae used in calculation. It is advisable to spend some time going through each indicator
in this worksheet as it will help you to understand the indicators and functioning of the EPSSim
simulation (please note that practice exercises on each are also embedded into the model, see Part
2: Practicing EPSSim).
Figure 4.10 Educational Indicators
4 Show Menu Sheet
This utility allows users to customize the name and the order of the menu displayed on the drop
down menu bar according to the specic terminology used in their own education system, for
example, Elementary Education might be used instead of Primary Education (Figure 4.11).
There is MenusheeI for menus within EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c and MenuUIiI for menus within EPSSim
Utilities. To access these worksheets, choose Show Menu Sheet under Extra Utilities (Figure 4.5).
Two worksheets will appear next to the Start worksheet. You can also access these worksheets by
clicking the DispIay AII button on the Start menu.
48
Figure 4.11 Menu Sheet

Column A, LeveI, refers to the position of each menu. Inserting 1 will make the corresponding
menu appear as a main menu on the menu bar. Level 2 indicates the menu items under the main
menu and 3 species submenu items under the menu item 2.
In Column B, CapIion, relates to the names of the actual captions (headings) as they appear on the
menu. Column C refers to the position and name o! Ihe macros, which can be modied further
by using Visual Basic Editor, if necessary. Column D species whether there is a divide (True) or
not (blank) in between the submenu items (a line appears in between the menus when you write
True). In addition, face ID is linked to the icons appearing on the left-hand side of the sub menus.
Each icon has identity numbers, which can be written on the column E and corresponding Face ID
will appear.
As shown in Figure 4.11, EPSSim 2.9b or 2.9c is set as level 1, hence showing on the main menu
bar. The second levels are in red and shown on the menu items under EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c with
dividers separating groups of menus. Next to each menu items (on the right-hand side of the
menu), there are sub menus, which are given number 3 on the menu sheet. The same rule applies
to EPSSim Utilities.
49
Chapter 5
Customizing EPSSim
As outlined in Chapter 1, EPSSim is a generic simulation model which has been designed to facili-
tate adaptation at the country level. While this process can be time-consuming, it is crucial to
ensuring that the model reects the distinctive characteristics of a countrys education system and
its corresponding policy priorities. In turn, country-level adaptation helps to ensure that the model
produces credible results which support effective planning and implementation.
Presented below are the basic adaptations a generic model may need. However, the presentation
is not exhaustive and one may think of further adaptation depending on the national education
system structures and country specic needs.
5.1 The Structure of the Educational system
Depending on the educational system of each country, the level and the type of education system
may be dened differently. Firstly, there are differences in the ways in which countries structure
education, for example: 1) the names of each level and type of education; 2) the age of the pupil
population; and 3) the number of grades in each level of educational system, amongst other things.
Secondly, countries also employ 4) specic policies which need to be integrated if the model is to
reect the education system as a whole.
Generally, there are six years of primary education, three years of lower secondary education,
another three years of upper secondary education and higher education including university
education or other tertiary education. There may also be pre-primary, early childhood programmes
and non-formal education programmes. However, if the educational system is different and the
terminology differs (i.e. primary education is not six years in length and called elementary school),
users must make changes accordingly.
1 Changing the Names of Each Level and Type of Education
Users can change the names of each educational level and type by modifying the names on the
VOC worksheet (Figure 5.1). VOC stands for vocabularies and it contains all the text which is used
in EPSSim. By opening the VOC worksheet, users may nd the cells referring to the education levels
and where they need to make changes and re-write the name of the educational levels and types
on the yellow columns of the worksheet. For example, if you are changing something in English,
make changes on columns F through J. Then go to languages under the EPSSim Utilities menu and
click English again to reect what you have modied.
In addition, users can change the name of the worksheet by double clicking each worksheet tab
and re-writing the name or right click on the relevant tab and choose rename to change.
5 / Customising EPSSim
50
Figure 5.1 VOC worksheet
2 The Age of the Pupil Population
Enrolment and graduation ages also differ across countries. In primary education, for example,
a student population of children aged 6 to 11 is used in the generic model. However, this might
differ depending on the enrolment age and the years of each level of the educational system in a
given country.
The age of each level and type of education is determined from the POP worksheet, which then
translates into the gures in each of the sub-sectoral worksheets. As shown in Figure 5.2, the sub
sectoral worksheets will remind you to check the reference ages as these will affect the intake rates
and the population age ranges. You can make changes from each level of the education worksheet,
rst on the intake rate at grade 1 and then on the school age population (see Figure 5.2).
Figure 5.2 Setting the age population for each level and type of education
51
3 The Number of Grades for Each Level of Education
The number of grades by education level also differ across countries. Therefore, if what is provided
in the generic model is not relevant, you can either delete the relevant row in the PIM worksheet
6

or enter 0 in the baseline value to indicate it is not applicable. In addition, by double-clicking the
cell on the grades, you can edit the name grades and change to year 1 or 1st year instead of grade
1 (Figure 5.3).
Figure 5.3 Modifying the number of grades

For example, as shown in the Figure 5.3, rows for grades 7 to 9 are provided in the generic model
for those countries with more than 6 years in primary schooling. If a country only has up to grade
6, the rows corresponding from grade 7 to grade 9 should be deleted or zeros added.
4 Adding Specic Education Programmes
The EPSSim model is designed to be capable of incorporating specic programmes in operation in
an education system. To add or modify a programme, go to the corresponding worksheets (level
and type of education) and insert rows or delete rows according to your needs. You may copy/paste
the structure of the specic programmes from what is already provided in the generic version and
pay careful attention to the adaptation. For further practise on these aspects, please refer to the
adaptation exercises in the second part of the handbook.
5.2 Customizing Educational Staff
The EducaIionaI 5Ia!! section includes teaching and non-teaching staff in a given level and type
of educational system. Categories of teachers or non-teaching staff could differ according to the
educational system of each country. It is therefore required to name in the worksheet the different
categories to accurately reect the education system that is simulated. Educational staff costs
represent the main share of expenses. When naming the categories in the projection worksheets,
one may think that they are then reected in the COST sheet where unit costs are inputted. In that
6 Please note that by deleting the irrelevant rows, you would need to pay attention to possible broken links across the work-
sheets. The broken links in the formulae will be indicated as #REF!
52
sense, it is critical to group the teachers and non-teaching staff according to coherent salary scale
categories as well. For instance, below are examples of teaching and non-teaching staff categories.

For instance, categories of teaching staff could be disaggregated according to the work experience
(e.g. junior, senior), the functions (e.g. heads, teachers, assistants), the level of qualication (e.g.
qualied, unqualied, trained/untrained), the contractual arrangements (e.g. civil servants, con trac-
tual teachers, community teachers).
Figure 5.4 Classifying categories of teachers

5.3 Choosing Education Indicators for Viewing Scenarios
When you generate scenarios (Scenario function in the EPSSim menu), the generic EPSSim 2.9
has a predened set of indicators which are displayed. For ease of comparison, the scenarios and
their corresponding outcomes by indicator appear on the one page. However, if you do not wish
to include some of the indicators or if you want to add different indicators, it is possible to do so
by going to the Viev5cenarios worksheet and changing or adding the relevant indicators in the
column AA (scroII Ihe vorksheeI Io Ihe righI) that function as bridging cells and make sure that
the formulae are correct from column AB and onwards.
5.4 MACROS
A macro is a set of codied instructions that are scripted, saved, and typically assigned to a short
key. In other words, it is a short programme written to automate several and/or repetitive steps.
Macros can be found in many types of software, such as spreadsheets and word processing. They
consist of a list of several operations saved in a le which can be called up from within e.g. the
53
Excel programme. When called up by a single word or even a single letter, the entire list of specied
operations is executed.
A number of macros have been designed to improve the user-friendliness of EPSSim and to automate
the consultation of the projected results. The macros are made possible by means of Visual Basic for
Applications (VBA),
7
scripted on the Visual Basic Editor. The three typical elements of Excel Visual
Basic Editor are (i) Microsoft Excel Objects, (ii) Forms, and (iii) Modules.
If you want to change some of the macros, rst you have to identify the name of the concerned
macro programme by opening the worksheet entitled MenuSheet (Menu EPSSim utilities / Extra
Utiities/ Show Menu Sheet). Then, look for the names of the macros under Column C against the
captions (menu items) listed under Column B. Once you have identied the name of the particular
macro, access the Visual Basic Editor (in Excel 2010 hit the VIEW menu on the Excel tool bar and
choose the MACROS /DISPLAY the macros), look for the name of the macro and click on modify.
Macros usually start with Sub MacroName and end with End Sub.
Those who wish to learn more about VBA should refer to the many other available sources (website,
documents or tutorials) dealing with VBA.
7 VBA stands for Visual Basic for Applications, the ofcial name of which is Visual Basic, Applications Edition. VBA is Microsofts
common application programming (macro) language for Access, Excel, and the Visual Basic programming environment.
54
ANNEXES
EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model
54
Annexes
1 EPSSim Features
8

This chart summarizes at a glance the main features and dimensions of the EPSSim model directly
available in its generic version without any adaptation. With slight or substantial customization, any
of these features can be adapted and/or, removed.
1 SCHOOL SYSTEM
Progressive Phases
Pre-Primary
Disaggregated by grade: up to 3 years,
plus earlier age care programmes
Primary Disaggregated by grade: up to 9 years
Secondary
Disaggregated by grade: up to 6 years
each of lower/upper
Higher
Aggregated cycles no progressive phase
by grade or sub-level
Teacher training
Aggregated cycles no progressive
phase by grade
Non-formal
Disaggregated by grade: up to 2 years
for adult literacy programmes
Parallel Streams
Secondary
General/technical/vocational at Lower
Secondary and Upper Secondary
Higher 2 types (university, other) x 5 specialisations
Teacher training 4 specialisations
Non-formal
Literacy/school reintegration/ 4 other
programmes
Providers
(public/private at all levels except
Non-Formal Education)
Geographic Units Rural/urban in EPSSim version 2.9b
8 Source: Education Simulation Models in Use across UNESCO, a review of technical features, UNESCO Discussion Paper,
January 2009
55
ANNEXES
2 STUDENT FLOWS
Intake Decision variable
Repetition Decision variable
Promotion Decision variable
3 STAFF
Categories with Differential Demand
Up to 4 different categories
of teachers + up to 3 different
categories of head-teachers
and other non-teaching staff
(labels differ between phases)
Categories with Differential Costs As above
Categories with differential ows (incl. attrition) Teaching staff/non-teaching
By Subject/Phase 4 subject areas
By Certication 1 level
4 STAFF FLOWS
Teacher-training output Provided in the Teacher-Training worksheet
Recruitment
Total number calculated in Teacher-Training
worksheet as well as directly in the sub-sector
sheets staff section new teachers
Resignation Rolled into attrition rate variable
Retirement Rolled into the attrition rate variable
Death Rolled into the "attrition rate variable
56
ANNEXES
5 STAFF DEMAND AND SUPPLY
Staff Demand Calculation
Pupil-teacher ratio (pre-primary, primary and
Non-Formal Education); class size + weekly hours
+ teacher utilisation (Secondary education,
Higher Education, Teacher Training)
Staff Demand-Supply Gap
Over-/undersupply of new trainees in current year
indicated in the Teacher Training worksheet, no
disaggregation
6 CROSS-CUTTING THEMES
Gender
Disaggregated incl. ow rates
Parity indices
Available in the snapshot
worksheet indicators
and costs proposed in
EPSSim utilities
HIV/ AIDS
HIV prevalence among
students
To simulate special
attendance to HIV
students and teachers
in the module Costing
HIV/AIDS impact and
HIV prevalence among
teachers
Same as above
AIDS-attributable costs Same as above
57
ANNEXES
7 EFFICIENCY
Wastage / Efciency Coefcient
Provided in the module Internal efciency
according to reconstituted cohort analysis
method
Student-years per Graduate
Provided in the module Internal efciency
according to reconstituted cohort analysis method
Survival Rates Same as above
Graduation Rate Same as above
Average Study Time
Per graduate, per drop-out in the module
Internal efciency according to reconstituted
cohort analysis method
8 CAPITAL INVESTMENTS
New Classrooms to Construct
As a result variable according to a PCR (pupil class-
room ratio) in pre-primary and primary education
and classroom utilization rates in upper levels
Classrooms to Replace/Repair
As a result variable according to an amortization
ratio (see glossary in EPSSim model for more
information on the amortization rate).
Double-Shift Classrooms As a decision variable
Provision of other `per x
students/staff/classroom/
school' facilities
Staff rooms, latrines, labs, other rooms
(all per x classrooms)
Other
Comprehensive Child-Friendly School (UNICEF)
and Additional Demand-Side Intervention (UNDP)
components with additional per-student, per-
teacher, per-school capital costs
58
ANNEXES
9 RECURRENT EXPENDITURE
Salaries
Gross annual salary indexed on the
GDP per capita
Other `per x students/ staff/
classrooms/ school' recurrent
Textbooks, school feeding, other (per x
students); teaching guides, other (per class);
maintenance (per room); staff development
(per x teachers)
Other Non-Proportional Recurrent
Bursaries, central administration (baseline
+ extrapolated growth), various (curriculum
dev. etc.) as percentage overhead of total
recurrent
Other
Comprehensive Child-Friendly School
and Additional Demand-Side Intervention
components with additional per-student,
per-teacher, per-school recurrent costs
10 FINANCING
Government
Education Budget
Projections estimated via GDP growth gov. share
education share
Donor Support
Time series of past and present data to be inputted-
projections are unlikely to be accurate given the volatility
of the external nancing support
Household Contributions
Helps determining School Fees Abolition policies for
basic education
Determination of
Funding Gap
Automatically generated: total costs of education
(needs-based) / total education nancing (all the sources
of incomes)
59
ANNEXES
Model Operation
11 DECISION FLOW
Decision
Flow
User
species.
baseline data
assumptions for ows
resource utilisation
item costs
ModeI
caIcuIaIes.
future enrolments
required expenditure
required construction/ recruitment activities
indicators of interest
12 PRESENTATION AND ORGANISATION
Organisation
by education level, by category of inputs (students, teachers,
capital, recurrent) within phases; costs, efciency etc. separately
Visualisation
some automatically generated graphs and recaps according to
the simulation results
Summary Sheet key assumptions and major simulation results
60
ANNEXES
13 PROJECTION
Flexibility of Time Series Inputs
(assumptions or targets)
Linear (for non-cost) and exponential (for cost-
related) Interpolation (exibility optional, through
CTRL+SHIFT+A or B)
Time series can be extended as much as
needed. However, accuracy of the projections
proportionally decline.
Monitoring [forecast vs actual] For constructions
Handling of Uncertainty Scenario functions
14 AVAILABILITY
Online download Documentation and model
Hard-Copy On request from UNESCO
15 SKILL REQUIREMENTS
to run
1
Basic spreadsheet use
2
Pre-dened Adaptations Basic spreadsheet use
2
arbitrary adaptations Spreadsheet design
3
, macro-programming
Notes:
1
entering data, extracting results, changing assumptions etc.
2
`basic spreadsheet use refers to entering data into cells, deleting rows/columns etc.
3
`spreadsheet design goes beyond `basic use in requiring the denition of functions
and cell calculations etc.
61
ANNEXES
16 IT RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS
Computing Platform
[with macros] Microsoft Windows/
[without macros] any capable of running
MS Excel compatible spreadsheets
Application
[with macros] Microsoft Excel/
[without macros] MS Excel or
compatible spreadsheet
Licensing cost
[with macros] software licences for above/
[without macros] works under free OpenOfce,
should work under free Linux
17 GUIDANCE AND SUPPORT
documentation Print, PDF in English, French, Spanish (out-of-date)
help function In the model and by email: epssim@unesco.org
glossary/denitions
Within application and documentation,
explanation and formulae
in-line explanations
Comments are provided in some cells to help the
data inputting job
Exercises
Education indicators calculation exercises,
simulation exercises
prompted data-entry Through colour-code
62
ANNEXES
2 Worksheets used in EPSSim 2.9
Name of the
worksheet
Description Function
Start
Start or introductory
page
Selection of Languages, Displaying or
hiding all worksheets, Access to the
owchart and Setting the Baseline Year.
MenuSheet EPSSim 2.9b Menu Displays list of EPSSim 2.9b Menus.
MenuUtil EPSSim Utilities Menu List of EPSSim Utilities Menus.
VOC Vocabulary Sheet
Contains all the structure and texts on
EPSSim in 5 languages with a template
column. Amendments can be made
from this page.
POP
Population and Dropout
Children Data
Population projections and number of
dropout children are calculated.
ECCE
Pre-Primary School and
Early Childhood Care
Programme
Simulation and projections of
Pre-school education and Early
Childhood Care Programme on
Enrolments, Staff, Infrastructure
and Teaching Materials.
PRIM Primary Education
Simulation and projections of primary
school education on Enrolments, Staff,
Infrastructure and Teaching Materials.
SEC1 Secondary Education I
Simulation and projection of Secondary
1 Education including Enrolment, Staff,
63
ANNEXES
SEC2 Secondary Education II
Simulation and projection of Secondary
2 Education including Enrolment, Staff,
HED
Higher Education
(University and Other
Tertiary Education)
Simulation and projection of
Higher Education including Enrolment,
Staff and Infrastructure.
TED Teacher Education
Simulation and projections on
Pre-service teacher education
programme and In-service teacher
education programme and its Costs.
NFE Non Formal Education
Projection of Non-Formal
Education involving:
1. Literacy,
2. School Reintegration Programmes
for dropouts and youths,
3. NFE: Specic Non Formal
Education Programmes
COST Cost Projections
1. Projections/simulations by
Education level and type (Cost
projections for ECCE, PRIM,
SEC1, SEC2, HED, TED and NFE)
2. Expenditure Framework
3. Balance: Budget vs. Simulation
ViewScenario Viewing Scenarios Viewing Generated Scenarios.
64
ANNEXES
CFS
Child Friendly
School Features
Additional Costing on CFS features
that is linked up to COST worksheet.
HIV
HIV/AIDS Impacts and
Response in Education
Additional Costing on HIV/AIDS that is
linked up to COST worksheet.
ADD
Additional Demand Side
Interventions
Additional Costing on Additional
Demand Side Interventions that is
linked up to COST worksheet.
RECAP
Recapitulation for PRIM,
SEC, and HED
Summary of Enrolments, Staff,
Teaching Materials and Infrastructure.
SNAPS
Snapshot of Indicators
and Costs
Summary of Access and Equality,
Quality and Efciency, Budgetary and
Financing Framework and Unit Costs.
COH
Internal Efciency on
Primary Education
Displays Internal Efciency indicators
on Primary Education.
Flow Flow Rate Calculator
Used to calculate Flow rates
(Promotion, Repetition and
Dropout rates).
Sprague Sprague Multiplier
Disaggregation tool of grouped
population data.
65
ANNEXES
COHE Cohort Analysis
Calculation of
Internal Efciency.
EXER1
Viewing Scenarios of
Pre-Simulation
Viewing Generated
Pre-simulation Scenarios.
EXER2 Pre-Simulation Exercise
Pre-simulation Exercise
on Primary Education.
Charts 1-6 Collection of Charts
Charts 1: Enrolments
Charts 2: Teachers
Charts 3: New Constructions
Charts 4: Efciency Indicators
Charts 5: Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER)
Charts 6: Cost Projections
Glossary Denitions of Indicators
Explanation on Indicators used in
EPSSim, which can also be found from
Show Indicators menu.
66
ANNEXES
3 Assessing Internal Efciency by Cohort Analysis
The assessment of internal efciency and wastage in education
9
uses techniques similar to those
used in cohort analysis in demography. A cohort is dened as a group of persons who jointly
experience a series of specic events over a period of time.
There are three ways to analyse the internal efciency of an education system by means of the
cohort pupil ow method, depending on the type of data collected: (i) true cohort, (ii) apparent
cohort, and (iii) reconstructed cohort.
The ideal way to obtain a precise assessment of educational wastage is through the use of the
true cohort method. This involves either a tracer (longitudinal) study to monitor the progress of a
selected cohort of pupils through the education cycle, or through a retrospective study of school
records in order to retrace the ows of pupils through the grades in past years. However, the true
cohort method is costly and time-consuming, and requires reliable school records with information
on individual pupils. For this reason, this method is not yet widely used.
In the absence of individualised pupil information, internal efciency in education can be assessed
from data on enrolment by grade for at least two consecutive years using either the apparent or
reconstructed cohort methods.
9 Wastage refers to the combined effect of grade repetition and drop-out.
67
ANNEXES
The apparent cohort method is applied when there is no data on repeaters. Then the enrolment in
grade 1 in a particular year is compared with enrolment in the successive grades during successive
years, and it is assumed that the decrease from each grade to the next corresponds to wastage. This
method, the most commonly used so far, produces very approximate estimates of drop-out, and its
main weakness is that it assumes that pupils are either promoted or drop-out of the school system.
Repetition, a factor of paramount importance, is simply overlooked. However, this method is quite
appropriate for countries practicing automatic promotion from grade to grade.
A more pertinent and commonly used method is the reconstructed cohort method, which is less
dependent on the availability of detailed data over time. To apply this method, data on enrolment
by grade for two consecutive years, together with data on repeaters by grade from the rst to
second year, are sufcient to enable the estimation of three main ow-rates: promotion, repetition
and drop-out. Once obtained, these rates may be analysed rst of all by grade to study the patterns
of repetition and drop-out. Then they can be used to reconstruct a pupil-cohort ow in order to
derive other indicators of internal efciency. This is illustrated below using data from Guinea.
68
ANNEXES
1 COMPUTATION OF THE FLOW-RATES USING DATA ON ENROLMENT AND REPEATERS
lnitial data: nrolment and repeaters by grade in Guinea,1993 and 1994
The methodology of the reconstructed cohort ow model is based on the fundamental concept
that for pupils enrolled in a given grade in a given year, there can be only three eventualities: (a)
some of them will be promoted to the next higher grade in the next school year; (b) others will
repeat the same grade in the next school year; and (c) the remaining pupils will drop-out of school
in the course of the year.

Based on this concept, the sample data above permit the computation of the three ow-rates. For
instance, of the 123,702 pupils enrolled in grade 1 in 1993:
1 33,539 repeated grade 1 in 1994, i.e. 27.1%.
2 86,815 were promoted, i.e. 70.2% (113,882 enrolled in grade 2 in 1994 minus 27,067 who
repeated that grade in 1994.
3 3,348 dropped-out, i.e. 2.7% (the residual of 123,702 minus 86,815 and minus 33,539).
Thus, the corresponding ow-rates are p = 0.702; r = 0.271; d = 0.027, which add up to 1 or 100%.
Main ow-rates enabling the derivation of the ow diagram
By applying the same type of computation on a grade-by-grade basis, one can obtain the following
ow-rates by grade.
2 RECONSTRUCTION OF SCHOOL HISTORY: HYPOTHETICAL FLOW DIAGRAM OF THE
COHORT THROUGH PRIMARY EDUCATION IN GUINEA
Based on these above ow-rates, the ow of a ctitious cohort of 1,000 pupils through the primary
education cycle can be reconstructed below, based on three assumptions:
1 That at any given grade, the same rates of repetition, promotion, and drop-out apply,
regardless of whether a pupil has reached that grade directly or after one or more repetitions
(hypothesis of homogenous behaviour);
2 That there will be no additional pupils (new entrants) in any of the subsequent years during
the life-time of the cohort, other than original cohort of 1,000 pupils;
3 That the number of times any pupil will be allowed to repeat a grade must be well dened.
69
ANNEXES
To reconstruct the history of 123,702 pupils entering grade 1 in Guinea in 1993, it is easier to
express this starting cohort as an index of 1,000 pupils, and all operations are consequently trans-
lated in per thousand terms. Thus, when applying each ow-rate for grade 1 to this ctitious
cohort of 1,000 pupils (instead of the actual 123,702 pupils), one nds that 271 pupils repeated
grade 1 (27.1%); 27 dropped-out (2.7%), and 702 were promoted to grade 2 (70.2%). Using the
ow-rates for grade 2 on the 702 pupils reaching grade 2, one can derive that 171 repeated grade
2 (24.4%); 32 dropped-out (4.6%), and 499 were promoted to grade 3 (71%) and so on. It may
be noted that the rst diagonal row in the diagram below (next page) is obtained by multiplying the
successive promotion rates for successive grades and successive years. The repetition and drop-out
rates are then applied to obtain the second, the third and the fourth rows.
From this ow diagram, one can draw a number of interesting observations. For instance, out of
the initial 1,000 pupils entering grade 1, only 46 graduated from the cycle without repeating any
grade; 88 graduated with a one year delay, i.e. they repeated one grade; 98 graduated with two
years delay, i.e. they repeated twice; and 84 graduated after repeating three times.
In addition, this ow diagram enables the computation of the main indicators of internal efciency.
For example, the gures in the boxes below the diagram give the number of pupils reaching a
particular grade, thus enabling the calculation of the survival rates by grade. One can observe that
958 out of the 1,000 pupils in the cohort (or 95.8 per cent) reached grade 2. These gures can be
easily derived from the upper part of the diagram, by summing the number of drop-outs from each
grade and each year and subtracting that sum from the enrolment in the same grade. For grade 1
we obtain 27+7+2+6 = 42 drop-outs, which when subtracted from 1000 would give 958 survivals.
Finally by summing the drop-outs from each grade (42+69+126+122+149+175) we nd a total of
683 pupils who dropped out without completing primary education (as graduates). Thus, out of the
initial pupil-cohort of 1,000, only 317, or about 32 per cent, graduated from the primary cycle.
70
ANNEXES
Multiplying this number of graduates by the number of grades (317 x 6 = 1902) would give the
ideal number of pupil-years required to produce the graduates. The ratio between the latter and
the actual number of pupil-years used by the cohort, i.e. 6534, gives the coefcient of efciency
(1902*6535 = 0.291 or 29%). The years input per graduate (20.6 years) is obtained by dividing
the total number of pupil-years spent by the cohort (6534) by the total number of graduates (317).
The years input per graduate can then be compared to the ideal number required, which is simply
the duration of the education cycle -- 6 years in this example.
According to the above gures, one may conclude that due to repetition and drop-out, it was
necessary to use more than three times the ideal number of pupil-years required to produce the
317 graduates. The input-output ratio, which is the reciprocal of the coefcient of efciency, can
be calculated by dividing the years input per graduate by the prescribed duration of the education
cycle (i.e. 20.6*6 = 3.4). The ideal minimum value of this ratio is 1, meaning that there is no
repetition or drop-out.
71
ANNEXES
Reliability of data on enrolments and repeaters
How well the derived indicators describe the way in which a cohort actually progresses through a
cycle of education depends on the validity of the assumptions on which this model is based and
the reliability of the statistical data available for estimating the ow rates. It is important to note
that since data on promotees and drop-outs are generally not directly available, errors in the data
available on enrolment and repeaters would affect the estimates derived for these two ows. Three
common errors that may distort the ow rates can be described as follows:
1 Over-reporting of enrolment/repeaters (particularly in grade 1). This may be deliberate when
there is a nancial incentive; for example, if the number of teachers paid by the government
is related to the number of pupils enrolled. A different type of over-reporting occurs in
countries where parents enrol their children in school at the beginning of the school year,
but where a large number of those enrolled do not actually attend school or only attend for
a very brief period.
2 Incorrect distinction between new entrants and repeaters. This leads, other things being
equal, to an under-reporting of repeaters in grade 1 and to an over-estimation of drop-out
from this grade.
3 Yearly variation in the coverage of the data. Assume that, for one reason or another, the
data available for year t are complete while those for year t+1 are incomplete. Disregarding
other types of errors, this implies that the number of promotees and repeaters in t+1 will
be under-estimated and the number of drop-outs over-estimated. If, in addition, the data
for school-year t+2 are complete, this will imply that some of the promotees and repeaters
that year were not included in the enrolment the previous year, leading to over-estimation
of the promotion and repetition rates and under-estimation of the drop-out rate, which may
appear negative in some cases.
While the errors discussed under points 1 and 2 above probably affect mainly the ow rates for the
rst grade of primary education, incomplete data will naturally distort the rates for all grades. All
these types of error can lead to biases in the indicators of internal efciency. Since the drop-out rate
is determined as a residual, it often serves as a test for some of these errors: a negative drop-out
rate, particularly, is a sign of errors in the raw data, i.e. reported enrolment and repeaters.
Note: A comparison of the apparent cohort and reconstructed cohort methods shows that
neglecting the repetition factor (apparent cohort method) leads to an under-estimation of
survival rates and an over-estimation of drop-out to the same worksheet as snapshots but
under the heading of Information on Unit Costs.
72
ANNEXES
4 GLOSSARY OF INDICATORS
LNROLMLNJ RAJlOS
Gross enrolment ratio
Total enrolment in a specic level of education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of
the eligible ofcial school-age population corresponding to the same level of education in a given
school-year. The ratio is calculated by dividing the number of pupils (or students) enrolled in a given
level of education regardless of age by the population of the age-group which ofcially corresponds
to the given level of education.
Formula:
GER
h
t
=
E
h
t
P
h, a
t
Where:

GER
h
t

= Gross Enrolment Ratio at level of education h in school-year t.
E
h
t
= Enrolment at the level of education h in school-year t.

P
h, a
t
= Population in age-group a which ofcially corresponds to the level of education h in
school-year t.
Net enrolment ratio
Enrolment of the ofcial age-group for a given level of education expressed as a percentage of the
corresponding population. It is computed by dividing the number of pupils enrolled who are of the
ofcial age-group for a given level of education by the population for the same age-group.
Formula:
NER
h
t
=
E
h, a
t
P
h, a
t
Where:
NER
h
t
= Net Enrolment Ratio at level of education h in school-year t.
E
h, a
t
= Enrolment of the population of age-group a at level of education h in school-year t.
P
h, a
t
= Population in age-group a, which ofcially corresponds to level of education h in
school-year t.
73
ANNEXES
Age specihc enrolment ratio
Percentage of the population of a specic age enrolled, irrespective of the level of education. To
calculate this ratio, divide the number of pupils (or students) of a specic age enrolled in educational
institutions at all levels of education by the population of the same age.
Formula:

ASER
a
t
=
E
a
t
P
t
Where:
ASER
a
t
= Age Specic Enrolment Ratio of the population of age a in school-year t.
E
a
t
= Enrolment of the population of age a in school-year t.
P
a
t
= Population of age a in school-year t.
lNJAKL (ADMlSSlON) RAJLS
Apparent (gross) intake rate
Total number of new entrants in the rst grade of primary education, regardless of age, expressed
as a percentage of the population at the ofcial primary school-entrance age. The rate is calculated
by dividing the number of new entrants in grade 1, irrespective of age, by the population of ofcial
school-entrance age.
Formula:
GIR
t
=
N
t
P
a
t
Where:
GIR
t
= Gross (Apparent) Intake Rate in school-year t.
N
t
= Number of new entrants in the rst grade of primary education, in school-year T
P
a
t
= Population of ofcial primary school entrance-age a, in school-year t.
Net intake rate
New entrants in the rst grade of primary education who are of the ofcial primary school-entrance
age, expressed as a percentage of the population of the same age. It is calculated by dividing the
number of children of ofcial primary school-entrance age who enter the rst grade of primary
education by the population of the same age.
74
ANNEXES
Formula:
NIR
t
=
N
a
t
P
a
t
Where:
NIR
t
= Net Intake Rate in school-year t.
t
a
N
= Number of children of ofcial primary school-entrance age a who enter the rst grade
of primary education, in school-year t.
P
a
t
= Population of ofcial primary school-entrance age a, in school-year t.
FLOW AND JRANSlJlON RAJLS
Promotion rate
The proportion of pupils enrolled in a given grade at a given school-year who will at the beginning
of the following school-year, be enrolled in the next higher grade. There are two possible ways of
calculating this indicator, depending on the availability of data on the number of promotees by
grade. If such data are available, Formula 1 can be used, in which case, the number of promotees
by grade in school-year t+1 is divided by the number of pupils enrolled in the corresponding grade
in school-year t. Otherwise, Formula 2 is used when data on the number of promotees by grade
are not available; the number of repeaters by grade in school-year t+1 are deducted from the
number of pupils enrolled in the corresponding school-year and the difference is then divided by
the number of pupils enrolled in corresponding grade in school-year t.
Formulae:
p
i
t
=
p
i+1
t+1
E
i
t

or
p
i
t
=
E
i+1
t+1
R
i+1
t+1
E
i
t
Where:
t
i
p = Promotion Rate at grade i in school-year t.
p
i+1
t+1
= number of pupils promoted to grade i+1 in school-year T+1.
E
i+1
t+1
= number of pupils enrolled in grade i +1 in school-year t +1.
E
i
t
= number of pupils repeating grade i +1 in school-year t +1.
R
i+1
t+1
= number of pupils enrolled in grade i, in school-year t.
75
ANNEXES
Repetition rate
Proportion of pupils from a cohort enrolled in a given grade at a given school-year who study in the
same grade in the following school-year. To calculate it, divide the number of repeaters in a given
grade in school-year t +1 by the number of pupils from the same cohort enrolled in the same grade
in the previous school-year t.
Formula (1):
r
i
t
=
R
i
t+1
E
i
t
Where:
r
i
t
= Repetition Rate at grade i in school-year t.
R
i
t+ i
= number of pupils repeating grade i, in school-year t+1.
E
i
t
= number of pupils enrolled in grade i, in school-year t.
Dropout rate
It is the proportion of pupils leaving school without completing a given grade in a given school-year
expressed as a percentage of those who were enrolled at the same grade in the beginning of the
same grade in the beginning of the same school-year. There are two possible ways of calculating
this indicator, depending on the availability of data on the number of drop-outs by grade. If such
data are available, Formula 1 can be used, in which case, number of drop-outs by grade in
school-year t is divided by the number of pupils enrolled in the corresponding grade in school-year
t. Otherwise, Formula 2 is used when data on the number of dropouts are not available; the
number of repeaters and promotees by grade in school-year t +1are deducted from the number of
pupils enrolled in the corresponding school-year and the difference is then divided by the number
of pupils enrolled in corresponding grade in school-year t.
Formula (2):
d
i
t
=
E
i
t
(R
i
t+1
+ P
i+1
t+1
)
E
i
t
Where:
d
i
t

= Dropout Rate at grade i in school-year t.
E
i
t
(R
i
t+1
+ P
i+1
t+1
)

= number of pupils dropping out from grade i in school-year t.
76
ANNEXES
Transition rates
The number of pupils (or students) admitted to the rst grade of a higher level of education in a
given year, expressed as a percentage of the number of pupils (or students) enrolled in the nal
grade of the lower level of education in the previous year. To calculate this rate, divide the number
of new entrants in the rst grade of the specied higher cycle or level of education by the number
of pupils who were enrolled in the nal grade of the preceding cycle or level of education in the
previous school year.
Formula:
TR
h, h+1
t
=
E
h+1,1
t+1
R
h+1,1
t+1
E
h, n
t
Where:
TR
h, h+1
t

= Transition rate (from cycle or level of education h to h +1 in school year t).
E
h+1,1
t+1

= number of pupils enrolled in rst grade at level of education h +1 in school-year t +1.
R
h+1,1
t+1

= number of pupils repeating rst grade at level of education h +1 in school-year t +1
E
h, n
t

= number of pupils enrolled in nal grade n at level of education h in school year t.
OUJPUJS AND LFFlClLNC OF JHL SSJLM
Gross completion rate
The total number of students completing (or graduating from) the nal year of primary or secondary
education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the population of the ofcial primary or
secondary graduation age. It can be calculated by dividing the number of students completing (or
graduating from) the nal year of primary or secondary education by the population at the ofcial
graduation age.
Formula:
GCR
h
t
=
C
h
t
P
h, a
t
Where:
GCR
h
t

= Gross Completion Rate at level of education h in school-year t.
C
h
t

= number of students completing (or graduating from) the nal year of primary or
secondary education h in school-year t.
P
h, a
t
= Population at the ofcial graduation age a which ofcially corresponds to the level
of primary or secondary education h in school-year t.
77
ANNEXES
In fact, in the absence of information on graduates, the completion rate is often proxied by the
following formula (here applied to the primary case):
Survival rates by grade
Percentage of a cohort of pupils (or students) enrolled in the rst grade of a given level or cycle
of education in a given school-year who are expected to reach successive grades. Calculate it by
dividing the total number of pupils belonging to a school-cohort who reached each successive
grade of the specied level of education by the number of pupils in the school-cohort i.e. those
originally enrolled in the rst grade of primary education.
Formula:
SR
g, i
k
=
P
g, i
t
t=1
m
E
g
k
Where:
P
g, i
t
= E
g, i+1
t+1
R
g, i+1
t+1
i = grade (1, 2, 3,,n) t = year (1, 2, 3, ,m) g = pupil-cohort.
SR
g, i
k

= Survival Rate of pupil-cohort g at grade i for a reference year k.
E
g
k

= Total number of pupils belonging to a cohort g at a reference year k.
P
g, i
t

= Promotees from E
g
k
who would join successive grades i throughout successive years t.
R
i
t

= Number of pupils repeating grade i in school-year t.
Coefhcient of efhciency
The ideal (optimal) number of pupil-years required (i.e. in the absence of repetition and drop-out)
to produce a number of graduates from a given school-cohort for a cycle or level of education
expressed as a percentage of the actual number of pupil-years spent to produce the same number
of graduates. Input-output ratio, which is the reciprocal of the coefcient of efciency, is often used
as an alternative. N.B. One school-year spent in a grade by a pupil is counted as one pupil-year.
This indicator can be calculated by dividing the ideal number of pupil-years required to produce a
number of graduates from a given school-cohort for the specied level of education, by the actual
number of pupil-years spent to produce the same number of graduates.
GC (primary) =
No. of students in the last primary grade repeating students
Population of the ofcial age group for the last primary grade
78
ANNEXES
Formula:
CE
g
=
G
g, j
t
* n
j =n
n+ k
G
g, j
t
* j
j =n
n+ k

+ D
g, j
t
* j
j =1
n+ k

Where:
CE
g
= Coefcient of Efciency for a pupil-cohort g.
G
g, n
= the number of pupils graduating from cohort g in nal grade n after n years of study
(without repetition).
D
g, j
= the number of pupils graduating from cohort g in nal grade n afterJ years of study.
G
g, j

= the number of pupils (of the cohort g) dropping out after j years of study.
k denotes the number of repetitions allowed;
n the prescribed normal duration of study for a cycle or level of education;
g the pupil-cohort; and
j the number of years of study.
ears-input per graduate
The estimated average number of pupil-years spent by pupils (or students) from a given cohort who
graduate from a given cycle or level of education, taking into account the pupil-years wasted due to
drop-out and repetition. N.B. One school-year spent in a grade by a pupil is equal to one pupil-year.
To calculate this indicator, divide the total number of pupil-years spent by a pupil-cohort (graduates
plus drop-outs) in the specied level of education by the sum of successive batch of graduates
belonging to the same cohort.
Formula:
YIG
g
=
G
g, j
* j
j =n
n+ k

+ D
g, j
* j
j =1
n+ k

G
g, j
j =n
n+ k
Where:
YIG
g
= Years input per graduate (for graduates belonging to cohort g).
G
g, j
= Graduates from cohort g after j years of study.
D
g, j
= drop-outs from cohort g after j years of study.
k denotes the number of repetitions allowed;
n the prescribed normal duration of study for a cycle or level of education;
g the pupil-cohort; and j the number of years of study.
79
ANNEXES
Average duration of studies per graduate
The estimated average number of years taken by graduates to graduate from a given school cohort
in a cycle or level of education. The calculation can be done by dividing the sum of the products
of the number of graduates by number of n years spent in a given school cohort in a cycle or level
of education by the number of graduates in the corresponding school cohort and cycle or level of
education and express the result in number of years. N.B. one year spent in a grade by a pupil is
equal to one pupil-year.
Formula:
ADSG =
G
i
* i
i =n
n+ k
G
i
i =n
n+ k
Where:
G
n
= Graduates after n years of study.
G
n+1
= Graduates after n +1 years of study.
G
n+ k
= Graduates after n + k years of study.
G = G
i
i =n
n+ k

= Total number of graduates.
Average duration of studies per dropout
The estimated average number of years dropouts from a given school cohort in a level of education,
stayed at school before dropping out. To calculate this indicator, divide the total number of years
(pupil-years) during which drop-outs from a given school cohort and in a level or cycle of education
stayed in a school before leaving by the number of drop-outs in corresponding school cohort and
level or cycle of education and express the result in numbers of years. N.B. one year spent in a grade
by a pupil is equal to one pupil-year.
Formula:
ADSD =
D
i
* i
i =n
n+ k
D
i
i =n
n+ k
Where:
D
i

= Dropouts after i years of study.
D
n+ k

= Dropouts after n + k years of study.
D = D
i
i =n
n+ k

= Total number of dropouts.
80
ANNEXES
Average duration of studies for the cohort
The estimated average number of years required to graduate a pupil/student from a given school
cohort in a cycle or level of education. This can be calculated by dividing the sum of the total number
of pupil-years taken by pupils from a given school cohort and in a level or cycle of education to
graduate and the total pupil-years during which drop-outs stayed in school before leaving by the
sum of the number of graduates and drop-outs in corresponding school cohort and level or cycle
of education and express the result in numbers of years. N.B. one year spent in a grade by a pupil
is equal to one pupil-year.
Formula:

ADSC =
ADSG * G + ADSD * D
1000
Where:
ADSG= Average duration of studies per graduate.
ADSD= Average duration of studies per dropout.
See above.
Proportion of total wastage spent on dropout
The proportion of total number of pupil/years wasted due to drop out of school from a given cohort
in cycle or level of education. This proportion is calculated by dividing the total number of pupil-
years wasted by pupils who drop out from a given school cohort and in a level or cycle by the sum
of the total number of pupil-years wasted by both the former and the pupils who repeat grades in
the corresponding school and level or cycle of education (i.e. the excess of pupil-years wasted on
the repetition and drop-outs) and multiply the result by 100.N.B. one year spent in a grade by a
pupil is equal to one pupil-year.
Formula:
PTWSD =
D
i
* i
i =1
n
PYEG
*100%
Where:
PYEG= the excess of pupil-years wasted on the repetition and drop-outs.
Proportion of total wastage spent on repetition
The proportion of total number of pupil/years wasted due to repetition of school within a given
cohort in a level of education. It is calculated by deducting the PTWSD from 100 and expresses
the result as a percentage. N.B. one year spent in a grade by a pupil is equal to one pupil-year. The
formula below calculates this indicator by deducting PTWSD from 100%.
81
ANNEXES
Formula:
PTWSR = (100 PTWSD )%
Where:
PTWSD =
D
i
* i
i =1
n
PYEG
*100%
See above.
Adult literacy or illiteracy rates
Adult literacy rate is dened as the percentage of population aged 15 years and over who can both
read and write with understanding a short simple statement on his/her everyday life. Adult illiteracy
is dened as the percentage of the population aged 15 years and over who cannot both read
and write with understanding a short simple statement on his/her everyday life. The adult literacy
rate is calculated by dividing the number of literates by the corresponding age-group population.
Alternatively, apply the same method using the number of illiterates to derive the illiteracy rate; or
by subtracting literacy rate from 100%.
Formula:
LIT
15+
t
=
L
15+
t
P
15+
t
or
ILL
15+
t
=
I
15+
t
P
15+
t
Where:
LIT
15+
t
= Adult Literacy Rate (15+) in year t.
ILL
15+
t
= Adult Illiteracy Rate (15+) in year t.
L
15+
t
= Adult Literate Population (15+) in year t.
I
15+
t
= Adult Illiterate Population (15+) in year t.
P
15+
t
= Adult Population (15+) in year t.
Number o! aduII iIIiIeraIes. The population aged 15 years and above who cannot both read and
write with understanding a short simple statement on their every day life. To calculate it, either use
data on the number of adult illiterates collected during population census or survey or subtract the
number of adult literates from the total population aged 15 years and above.
82
ANNEXES
JLACHLR-RLLAJLD lNDlCAJORS
Pupil-teacher ratio
Average number of pupils (students) per teacher at a specic level of education in a given school-
year. Teachers are dened as persons whose professional activity involves the transmitting of
knowledge, attitudes and skills that are stipulated in a formal curriculum programme to students
enrolled in a formal educational institution. The ratio is computed by dividing the total number of
pupils enrolled at the specied level of education by the number of teachers at the same level.
Formula:
PTR
h
t
=
E
h
t
T
h
t
Where:
PTR
h
t

= Pupil-teacher ratio at level of education h in school-year t.
E
h
t

= Total number of pupils or (students) at level of education h in school-year t.
T
h
t

= Total number of teachers at level of education h in school-year t.
Teachers' emoluments as percentage of public current expenditure on education
Public expenditure devoted to teachers emoluments expressed as a percentage of total public
current expenditure on education. This is calculated by dividing public current expenditure devoted
to teachers emoluments in a given nancial year by the total public current expenditure on
education for the same nancial year.
Formula:
%TX
t
=
TX
t
PCXE
t
Where:
%TX
t
= Percentage of public current expenditure on education devoted to teachers
emoluments in nancial year t.
TX
t

= Total public current expenditure on teachers emoluments in nancial year t.
PCXE
t
= Total public current expenditure on education in nancial year T.
Teacher requirements (full-time equivalent)
There are two methods : the rst is based on the pupil-teacher ratio and the second on the number
of teaching hours per week).
Method based on the pupil-teacher ratio (used most frequently for primary education and to some
extent for preschool education and literacy programmes)
83
ANNEXES
Formula:
TR
t
=
E
t
R
t
R
t
= R
0
+ t* cr
NT
t+1
= (TR
t+1
AT
t+1
) *
j
Where:
TR
t
= number of full-time equivalent teachers required
E
t

= total projected number of students
R
t

= pupil-teacher ratio
R
0

= initial pupil-teacher ratio
cr = constant annual rate change of pupil-teacher ratio
NT
t+1

= number of new teachers required at year t +1
AT
t+1

= Available teachers by category at year t +1
j

= proportion of new teachers appointed to the category j
Method based on the number of pupils by class and hours taught by teachers (most frequently used
for the levels and cycles of education other than primary education)
Formula:
TR
t
=
E
t
* H
t
C
t
* L
t
where:
TR
t

and E
t
are dened above.
H
t

= average number of weekly hours per student
C
t

= average number of students per class
L
t

= average number of weekly hours per full-time teacher
cc = constant annual rate change of average number of students per class
lNFRASJRUCJURL-RLLAJLD lNDlCAJORS
Pupil-classroom ratio
The ratio of the number of pupils (students) to the number of classrooms. The ratio is calculated
by dividing the number of pupils (students) at a level or cycle of education by the number of class-
rooms in the corresponding level or cycle of education.
84
ANNEXES
Formula:
PCR
h
t
=
E
h
t
C
h
t
Where:
PCR
h
t

= Pupil-classroom ratio at level of education h in school-year t.
E
h
t

= Total number of pupils or (students) at level of education h in school-year t.
C
h
t

= Total number of classrooms at level of education h in school-year t.
Classroom space utilisation rate
Percentage of the area of the standard oor space occupied by pupils/students in a classroom. The
rate is calculated by dividing the area of oor space of a classroom actually used by pupils/students
at a level or cycle of education by the standard oor space which is planned for utilisation by pupils/
students in the corresponding level or cycle of education.
Formula:
CSUR
h
t
=
A
h
t
S
h
t
Where:
CSUR
h
t

= Classroom space utilisation rate
A
h
t

= Area of classrooms oor space actually used at h level or cycle of education
S
h
t

= Area of the standard classrooms oor space that is planned for utilisation at h level or
cycle of education
Data required: 1) Number of classrooms 2) Standard and actual area of oor space classrooms are
respectively utilized or planned to be utilized.
Classroom time utilisation rate
Proportion of hours classrooms are used or occupied for teaching/learning purposes within the total
number of standard hours of utilisation. To calculate the rate, divide the number of hours during which
classrooms are actually utilised for teaching and learning at a level or cycle of education by the standard
numbers of hours classrooms are planned to be used in the corresponding level or cycle of education.
Formula:
CTUR
h
t
=
H
h
t
S
h
t
Where:
CTUR
h
t

= Classroom time utilisation rate
CTUR
h
t

= Number of actual hours classrooms used at h level or cycle of education
S
h
t

= Number of standard hours of utilisation of classrooms at h level or cycle of education
DaIa required. 1) Number of classrooms 2) Standard and actual number of hours classrooms are
respec tively utilised or planned to be utilised.
85
ANNEXES
Classroom utilisation rate
The product of the classrooms space and time utilisation rates. Multiply the CTUR (Classroom
Space Utilisation Rate) by the CSUR (Classroom Time Utilisation Rate) to calculate this rate.
Formula:
CUR
h
t
= CSUR
h
t
* CTUR
h
t
Where:
CUR
h
t

= Classroom utilisation rate
DaIa required. 1) Number of classrooms 2) Standard and actual number of hours classrooms are
respectively utilised or planned to be utilised. 3) Standard and actual area of oor space classrooms
are respectively utilized or planned to be utilised.
Classroom requirements
Based on the analyses of the projected enrolments and classroom utilization standards, it is possible
to calculate future requirements for new constructions by level or cycle of education. This indi-
cator is indispensable when preparing sector plans or programmes/projects related to classroom
construc tions. It is calculated, especially for primary education level, by dividing the total number of
students by the average number of students per classroom. As for the secondary and higher levels
of edu cation, classroom requirements are calculated by taking into account the number of (weekly
or monthly) learning hours and laboratory-usage hours as well.
Formula:
TCR
d
t
=
E
d
t
ASC
d
t
NC
d
t
=
E
d
t
(1 a)* E
d
t1
[ ]
ASC
d
t
ASC
d
t
= ASC
d
o
+ t* cc

Where:
E
d
t
= Total projected number of students, at year t and level of education d
TCR
d
t
= total classrooms required, at year t and level of education d
ASC
d
t
= Average number of students per classrooms at year t, level of education d
NC
d
t
= new classrooms required, at year t, level of education d
a = replacement rate of buildings
cc = constant annual rate of change of average of students per classroom
0 = initial year
86
ANNEXES
MACRO-LCONOMlC lNDlCAJORS
Public expenditure on education as percentage of gross national product
Total public expenditure on education (current and capital) expressed as a percentage of the Gross
National Product (GNP) in a given nancial year. It can be calculated by dividing total public expenditure
on education in a given nancial year by the GNP of the country for the corresponding year.
Formula:
%GNP
t
=
PXE
t
GNP
t
Where:
%GNP
t

= Percentage public expenditure on education in nancial year t.
PXE
t

= Total Public expenditure on Education in nancial year t.
GNP
t

= Gross National Product in nancial year t.
InIerpreIaIion. In principle a high percentage of GNP devoted to public expenditure on education
denotes a high level of attention given to investment in education by the government; and vice versa.
Public expenditure on education as percentage of total government expenditure
Total public expenditure on education (current and capital) expressed as a percentage of total
government expenditure in a given nancial year. It can be calculated by dividing total public
expenditure on education incurred by all government agencies/departments in a given nancial
year by the total government expenditure for the same nancial year.
Formula:
%PXE
t
=
PXE
t
TPX
t
Where:
%PXE
t

= Public expenditure on education as a percentage of total government expenditure
in nancial year t.
PXE
t

= Total public expenditure on education in nancial year t.
TPX
t

= Total government expenditure in nancial year t.
Percentage distribution of public current expenditure on education by level
Public current expenditure for each level of education, expressed as a percentage of total public
current expenditure on education. It can be calculated by dividing public current expenditure
devoted to each level of education by the total public current expenditure on education.
87
ANNEXES
Formula:
%PCXE
h
t
=
PCXE
h
t
PCXE
h
t
h=1
n
Where:
%PCXE
h
t

= Percentage public current expenditures on level of education h in nancial year t.
PCXE
h
t

= Total public current expenditures on level of education h in nancial year t.
Public current expenditure per pupil (student) as % of GNP per capita
Public current expenditure per pupil (or student) at each level of education, expressed as a percentage
of GNP per capita in a given nancial year. It can be calculated by dividing per pupil public current
expenditure on each level of education in a given year by the GNP per capita for the same year.
Formula:
%PCXE
h, GNPc
t
=
PCXE
h
t
E
h
t
/
GNP
t
P
t
Where:
%PCXE
h, GNPc
t
= Public current expenditure per pupil of education level h as percentage of
GNP per capita in nancial year t.
PCXE
h
t

= Public current expenditure on education level h in nancial year t.
PCXE
h
t

= Gross National Product in nancial year t.
E
h
t

= Total enrolment in education level h in school-year t.
P
t

= Total national population in year t.
Public current expenditure on education as percentage of total public expenditure on education
Public current expenditure on education expressed as a percentage of total public expenditure
on education (current and capital) in a given nancial year. It can be calculated by dividing public
current expenditure on education in a given nancial year by the total public expenditure on edu-
ca tion for the same nancial year.
Formula:
%PCXE
t
=
PCXE
t
TPXE
t
Where:
%PCXE
t
= Percentage public current expenditure on education in nancial year t.
PCXE
t
= Total public current expenditure on education in nancial year t.
TPXE
t
= Total public expenditure in nancial year t.
88
ANNEXES
Total costs (recurrent and capital)
Formula:
C
d
t
= RC
d
t
+ I
d
t
Where:
t = year
d = level of education
C
d
t

= Total costs
RC
d
t

= Total recurrent costs
I
d
t

= Investment
Recurrent costs
Formula:
RC
d
t
= CT
d
t
+ CM
d
t
+ CA
d
t
+ CO
d
t
CT
d
t
=
i =1
n
T
dij
t
w
dij
j+1
k
CM
d
t
= E
d
t
* CMPS
d
CA
d
t
= E
d
t
* CAPS
d
CO
d
t
= E
d
t
* COPS
d
Where:
CT
d
t

= Teacher costs
CM
d
t

= Costs of materials
CA
d
t

= Administrative costs
CO
d
t

= Other costs
T
dij
t

= Teachers by category i and step j.
w
dij
t

= salaries by category and step.
CMPS
d

= per pupil cost for materials.
CAPS
d

= per pupil administrative cost.
COPS
d

= per pupil other costs
89
ANNEXES
8uilding (capital) costs
Formula:

I
d
t
= CBPS * E
d
t
(1 a)* E
d
t1
[ ]
Where:
CBPS
d

= per pupil building cost.
E
d
t

= Enrolment.
a = replacement rate of buildings.
EPSSim User Guide
PART TWO
Practical Exercises
1 EXERCISE ON INDICATORS .............................................................................................93
2 WORKING ON SCENARIOS: A SIMULATION EXERCISE .................................................. 94
Activity 1 Developing a Status Quo Scenario ............................................................. 95
Activity 2 Developing an Exploratory Scenario .............................................................. 97
Activity 3 Developing an Alternative Scenario to set a Reference Scenario .................... 98
3 EPSSIM ADAPTATION EXERCISE (ADVANCED TRAINING) ............................................. 102
4 SOLUTIONS OF THE SIMULATION EXERCISE: WORKING ON SCENARIOS ..................... 111
5 SOLUTIONS OF THE ADAPTATION EXERCISE ............................................................... 121
Figures and Tables
Chapter 1 .......................................................................................................................... 93
Fig 1.1 Pre-Simulation Exercises ............................................................................... 93
Fig 1.2 Exercise on Indicators ................................................................................... 93
CONTENTS PART TWO
91
PART TWO
92
The 2.9 (both 2.9b and 2.9c) model contains some built-in training modules which provide exercises
on the key indicators used in the model and enable users to conduct a simplied simulation using
hypothetical data. For advanced users, exercises for adapting the generic EPSSim to a country
context are also proposed. They require the use of the model 2.9c ONLY.
1 / Exercise on Indicators
93
1 Exercise on Indicators
This is an exercise to practice calculating the main education indicators. To access the exercise, go
to EP55im UIiIiIies, then select Pre-simuIaIion Exercise and click on Exercise on IndicaIors
(Figure 1).
Figure 1.1 Pre-Simulation Exercises

Once the sheet IndExer is open, you can follow the instructions and train yourself in the calculation
of indicators (Figure 2). When you enter values according to the exercise, the answers will be
automatically checked and will show whether they are TRUE or FALSE (note that where there are
several questions, this cell will only read TRUE when all correct answers have been entered). If you
encounter any difculties, click ConsuII Ihe soIuIion to check the solutions.
Figure 1.2 Exercise on Indicators
2 Working on Scenarios:
A Simulation Exercise
Once you have completed the exercise on indicators, you may then move on to the 5imuIaIion
Exercise, which resembles the real simulation practices but in a much more simplied format. This
exercise can either be guided by designated facilitators with set data and information or be used as
a self-training module using the hypothetical baseline (Column B) and policy information (Columns
C and D) data provided below:
In Epssimia, the Minister of Education is concerned with achieving Universal Primary Education
(UPE) at a rapid pace. As a planner, you are requested to produce a series of scenarios that present
the best way forward for advising the Cabinet. If access to education is key in achieving UPE, you
will also have to consider quality and internal efciency aspects so as not to neglect retention and
resource limitations issues. Your nal scenario will have to be nancially sustainable over the years.
For the sake of the exercise, only pubIic educaIion will be considered.
LOCATING THE SIMULATION EXERCISE IN EPSSim
Open the EPSsim model and allow the macros
Go to Excel Top Bar Menu and click on PSSim Utilities
Select Pre-Simulation Exercise in the drop-down menu and click on Simulation xercise

94
The simulation sheet has been informed by the Statistical Unit of the Planning Department.
They have collected 2009/10 education data from the EMIS, calculated the ow rates,
looked for unit cost information in the relevant services (human resources, infrastructures
and textbooks) and asked the Ministry of Finances for macro-economic and expenditure
framework related data. Baseline data has been entered in the yellow cells of the sheet
(column B).
Your job will mainly consist in testing different sets of variables by xing credible policy
targets (column C), timelines (column D) and analysing the consequent projections
(column F and onwards) to experiment alternative and forecast scenarios.
PART TWO
95
Activity 1 Developing a Status Quo Scenario
In any situation where you can be asked to develop projection scenarios
2
, you
will have to start rst with a baseline scenario against which you will compare the
alternative scenarios you will later generate. The status quo scenario serves as a
reference point to explore ways and means for improvement.
The baseline scenario consists of a simple projection of the past trends (hereafter status
quo scenario). It is about determining the consequences of the current education situation or policy
if this will remain unchanged during the plan period. In actual fact, it is extremely rare that one is
fully satised with the existing situation and requires no change in the current policy. This status quo
scenario makes it possible to weigh the consequences of the laissez-faire policy and to identify and
specify the desirable changes to adopt within the framework of a new sector development period.
In general, the policy options of a status quo scenario are extrapolated from and calculated on the
basis of the past trends which are those observed over the past several years, e.g. 3 to 5 years. In
some cases, by lack of historical data, one can use the information of the last year for which the
data are available, in order to derive the policy variables and use them as if they were the policy
options of this status quo scenario.

Entering the Policy Options to Generate a Status Quo Scenario
In EPSSimia, there is, unfortunately, no historical data to extrapolate the policy options. The most
recent education data dates back to 2009/10. As such, the baseline indicators and unit costs
(coIumn ) are taken as policy targets and options to project the current situation to the future
and to simulate the absence of improvement, with a few exceptions.
2 It can be for informing policy making on a particular aspect of an on-going or future reform and/or outstanding education
issues, for guiding policy negotiation in nancial resource allocation and sector trade-offs, for preparing the annual budget, for
developing a comprehensive sector development plan that would be preceded by a thorough education sector diagnosis, etc.
At this stage, the model is meant to trigger the question: hov viII Ihe
sysIem evoIve i! no decision is made Io change Ihe currenI siIuaIion?
If the problems presently identied are allowed to continue unaddressed into
the future, will the government policy objective for universal primary
schooling be achieved, and if so, what will the implications be in terms of
human, physical and nancial resources?
A
2 / Working On Scenarios
96
Please follow these steps:

Enter the status quo policy options in coIumn C by simply replicating the data found in
the baseline cells (coIumn ) or the baseline year indicators automatically calculated in
the projection section (coIumn f).

Set the timeline 9 years later (coIumn D) with no exception.

Set the target intake rate in the rst grade of primary to 102% by 2020 from its 2009
value of 105%.

The attrition rates for teaching and non-teaching staff are set as 3 percent.
As concerns the cost-related information, the staff salaries are expressed in terms of per capita GDP
multiple, while all the rest is expressed in monetary terms (in thousands, unless otherwise specied).
Create a scenario by clicking the button CreaIion 5cenario' placed on CeII A4 of the
worksheet. You will be prompted to a table displaying the key features of Scenario 1 (Status
quo scenario in our case).
Reading and Analysing the Status Quo Scenario
1 What could you say about the GIR? What does it mean for the education system?
(Think from a pupils perspective)
2 Look at the GER (gross enrolment ratio) and comment its projection. (Bear in mind the
UPE objective and translate the indicator from an education system functioning point
of view)
3 How can you explain the decrease of the GER while the GIR remains over 100% over
the period? What are the other factors that can negatively impact the GER?
4 Analyse the resource requirements (teachers and infrastructure) and compare them to
the GER. How would you explain such a phenomenon?
Preparing an Exploratory Scenario
From the questions above and your analysis of the scenario, would you think that
ensuring the admission of all children in the rst grade of primary education is
a sufcient option for achieving UPE? In your understanding, what is the main
impediment to this objective?

PART TWO
97
Activity 2 Developing an Exploratory Scenario
The second stage of scenario development generally consists in designing
two or more alternative scenarios on the basis of the anticipated objectives
of new policies. These scenarios allow policy-makers and specialists to
weigh the consequences and values of adopting the new options for
education sector development within a given macro-economic and budge tary
framework, and to verify the socio-economic and nancial sustainability of the
education policy objectives considered, in particular by studying the effect of the different
combination of variables on the evolution of the sector. It is also in the course of this stage
that the feasibility of the policies and strategies considered is veried while the objectives
and hypotheses are evaluated in terms of nancial and budgetary consequences.
The results of the different scenarios inform the policy dialogue with a view to reaching a
consensus on the objectives of education policy. Once the different options are carefully
weighed, one of the scenarios will normally garner more consensus than the others and
result in what is called a reference scenario.
Entering the policy options to generate an exploratory scenario
In relation to the previous scenario, we agreed to change the ow rates
(promotion and repetition rates) in order to address the issue of low internal
efciency. In your simulation model, please change the policy variables
(column C) as follows:
The analysis of the status quo scenario has helped us identify the main dys-
func tions of the Epssimia education system, namely low internal efciency.
As a re sponse, a second scenario would be designed to tentatively address
the low internal efciency issue as part of responding to the Ministers
request for identifying the best policy measures to be taken for speeding-up
Universal Primary Education.
As we have seen, the Status Quo scenario is inadequate because, although most
children would enter the rst grade of primary education, the system would not be
able to achieve universal primary schooling by 2015. In that scenario the very low
internal efciency is allowed to persist and is projected to the future, thus leading to
continued high wastage rates in the system.
T
In
(
2 / Working On Scenarios
98

The promotion rates will be increased to 95 percent across all grades, incrementally over
the plan period (9 years), except for Grade 4 where the rate should be set at 90 percent;
the lower promotion rate in this grade results from the transitional nature of that grade
within primary education.
The repetition rates will be reduced to 5 percent, incrementally over the plan period,
except for Grade 4 (10%). Dropout rates will be subsequently reduced drastically, to
reach nil at the end of nine years.
All other variables will remain the same as in Scenario 1 including the timelines.
Create a second scenario by clicking the button 'Creation Scenario' placed on Cell A4
of the worksheet. You will obtain a table displaying both Scenarios 1 and 2.
Reading and Analysing the Alternative Scenario
1 How do you compare the gross enrolment ratios between Scenarios 1 and 2 and
what do you think are the main drivers for these changes? (Think in terms of UPE)
2 How do you compare the resource requirements (including teachers and classrooms)
between Scenarios 1 and 2?
3 How do you compare the nancing gaps between Scenarios 1 and 2 and what are
the main drivers for these changes?
Preparing an Alternative Scenario
From your analysis of the second scenario, you would conclude that improving
internal efciency indicators, even without changing other policy variables,
will substantially increase the enrolment ratios. However, as an adviser to the
Minister, you will be asked to specify the means through which the proposed
improvement of internal efciency will be achieved. What are some of the aspects of an
education system that are likely to sustain internal efciency and eventually UPE?
Activity 3 Developing an Alternative Scenario to Set a
Reference Scenario
The third phase of scenario development is the adoption of one of the previously
considered scenarios, or even a scenario resulting from the combination of several
objectives and variables. Once veried on the policy and technical level, this scenario
is rened with the degree of information which is required in the programming of
actions. It becomes the reference scenario for the future education plan, making it
possible to foresee development actions and the nancial resources required.
It can be designed as a result of the combination of several objectives and variables coming from different
sector development hypotheses and within affordable scal and budgetary frameworks. Such a scenario
will be based on the consensus of all major stakeholders, including nance ministries and, once endorsed,
will help in the actual preparation of a strategic or action plan for educational development.
PART TWO
99
In scenario 2, the system achieves universal primary schooling by 2020 even though we have
maintained the same gross intake rate as in Scenario 1 (status quo). That is mainly thanks to improved
internal efciency (high promotion rates, low repetition rates and no dropouts). However, the budget
decit will remain high through 2015 and onwards, higher than in Scenario 1. In addition to that,
the policy options do not address in any way the issues related to the quality of education that would
possibly ensure a sustained improvement of the internal efciency and UPE.
Improving Quality-related Indicators
In our case, the changes made to create a third scenario will be based on the
second scenario, by improving some quality-related indicators. In your simulation
model, please, change the policy variables (column C) as follows:

Reading and Analysing the Alternative Scenario
1 How do you compare the gross enrolment ratios on the one hand and the resource
requirements (including teachers and classrooms) on the other hand between
Scenarios 2 and 3 and what are the main drivers for these changes?
2 How do you compare the nancing gaps between Scenarios 1, 2 and 3?
Preparing a Reference Scenario
You have created three scenarios. Do you think any of these scenarios can be
taken as a reference to build an education development plan without running
the risk of worsening the quality of education or should another, acceptable
scenario be developed? Assuming none of these scenarios corresponds to your
expectations, please create your own scenario, keeping in mind the following:
You can change any ol lhe policy oplions and largels under columns C and D ol lhe
simu lation model.
Please bring down lhe lnancing gaps lor primary educalion wilhin a manageable
level, e.g. less than 15% throughout the plan period.
2 / Working on Scenarios
Im
In
sec
model,
The proporlion ol Calegory ! leachers (i.e. qualiled leachers) increases lrom 98 lo !00
The teacher/supervisor ratio changes from 10.1 to 7 (meaning 1 supervisor for 7 teachers)
The teacher/other non-teaching staff ratio changes from 14.5 to 10.
The number of core textbooks per pupil increases from 0.5 in base year to 2 and 3,
respeclively by 20!3 and 20!8.
The number of teaching guides for core subjects increases from 1 to 3 by 2013.
The share of primary education in the total resources for education increases from the
currenl 55.9 lo 60 by 20!5.
All other variables remain unchanged.
Creale a lhird scenario by clicking lhe bullon 'Creation Scenario' placed on Cell A4
of the worksheet. You will obtain a table displaying both Scenarios 1, 2 and 3.
BASELINE
Scenario 1
Status Quo
Scenario 2
Alternative
Scenario 3
Alternative
Year 2009 2010 2013 2015 2020 2010 2013 2015 2020 2010 2013 2015 2020
Gross intake rate 105.0% 104.6% 103.6% 103.0% 102.0% 104.6% 103.6% 103.0% 102.0% 104.6% 103.6% 103.0% 102.0%
Gross enrolment ratios 92.1% 92.4% 91.8% 91.3% 90.5% 92.4% 94.1% 96.0% 101.3% 92.4% 94.1% 96.0% 101.3%
Public 92.1% 92.4% 91.8% 91.3% 90.5% 92.4% 94.1% 96.0% 101.3% 92.4% 94.1% 96.0% 101.3%
Private 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pupil/teacher ratio 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35
Class size 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38
# Teaching staff 180,860 185,760 197,688 205,870 228,871 185,760 202,460 216,407 256,282 185,760 202,460 216,407 256,282
# Non-teaching staff 30,456 31,281 33,290 34,668 38,541 31,281 34,093 36,442 43,157 32,384 39,472 45,805 62,240
Core textbooks 868,261 892,027 950,083 989,943 1,101,440 892,027 973,015 1,040,609 1,233,355 1,561,048 3,892,060 4,994,924 7,400,130
Classrooms 164,160 168,751 180,046 187,818 209,336 168,751 184,392 197,431 234,408 168,751 184,392 197,431 234,408
COSTS FROM SIMULATION (000)
Recurrent costs 36,171,652 37,283,884 40,103,350 42,061,224 47,606,253 37,283,884 41,071,322 44,213,951 53,307,880 37,667,589 42,849,642 46,998,803 58,493,984
Teachers (Wage, etc.) 27,216,098 28,059,126 30,200,780 31,688,922 35,909,160 28,059,126 30,929,734 33,310,786 40,209,869 28,084,243 31,040,524 33,489,809 40,534,142
Other staff 4,755,523 4,903,445 5,279,703 5,541,257 6,281,602 4,903,445 5,407,139 5,824,863 7,033,927 5,075,956 6,257,859 7,316,903 10,133,536
Other recurrent costs 4,200,032 4,321,313 4,622,867 4,831,045 5,415,491 4,321,313 4,734,449 5,078,302 6,064,084 4,507,389 5,551,260 6,192,092 7,826,306
Capital costs 6,629,098 6,300,828 6,739,955 7,023,834 7,858,353 6,683,848 7,884,187 8,609,594 9,210,125 6,683,848 7,884,187 8,609,594 9,210,125
Total Primary education 42,800,751 43,584,712 46,843,305 49,085,058 55,464,606 43,967,732 48,955,510 52,823,545 62,518,005 44,351,437 50,733,829 55,608,397 67,704,109
EXPENDITURE FRAMEWORK ('000,000)
Education resources as % of
Total Gov. Resources
27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27%
Resources for primary education 36,605 37,630 40,880 43,202 49,598 37,630 40,880 43,202 49,598 37,924 42,172 45,265 53,194
Gap Simulation Costs vs. Budget (%) 16.9% 15.8% 14.6% 13.6% 11.8% 16.8% 19.8% 22.3% 26.0% 16.9% 20.3% 22.9% 27.3%
Recurrent 10.3% 10.6% 9.5% 8.7% 7.2% 10.6% 12.2% 14.3% 20.0% 10.9% 13.4% 15.9% 22.8%
Capital 73.7% 60.6% 58.1% 55.9% 51.9% 70.3% 85.0% 91.1% 78.1% 69.0% 79.3% 82.4% 66.0%
Additional amount to mobilize (000) 6,195,751 5,954,772 5,963,118 5,883,530 5,866,548 6,337,792 8,075,323 9,622,018 12,919,947 6,427,738 8,562,092 10,343,448 14,510,547
Unit Costs (000) 6.78 6.72 6.78 6.82 6.92 6.78 6.92 6.98 6.97 6.84 7.17 7.35 7.55

100-101
PART TWO EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model 2 / Working on Scenarios
102
3 EPSSim Adaptation Exercise
(Advanced Training)
NoIe.
The lollowing exercises musl be based on lhe LPSSim 2.9c version.
Open lhe LPSSim2_9c.xls lhen save lhe lle under a dillerenl name such as
LPSSim2_9cLxercise.xls. Use lhe renamed lle lo praclice lhe exercises.
8elore doing lhe exercises, please change lhe based year lo 20!0.
Please complele lhe exercise sequenlially lrom ! lo 8.
Since lhese exercises are solely inlended lo enhance beller underslanding ol lhe
EPSSim, in some cases they may not well reect actual in-country situations.
ll is assumed lhal you are already lamiliar wilh basic lealures and lunclions ol LPSSim
and how to operate it.
Please do lhe exercises wilh lhe queslion ol WHY in mind. Look al lips and lollows
answers as needed but not mechanically.
ACTIVITY 1: REPLACING, REMOVING OR ADDING AN ITEM IN A SUB-LEVEL SECTION
1: The Ministry of Education has two types of non-teaching staff: Administrative staff and
Other supporting staff at the primary level. Please reect this in the model.
Tips in the PRIM worksheet
Locale lhe seclion ol "non-leaching slall" using find Command;
Peplace "Calegory !" wilh "Adminislralive slall",
Peplace "Calegory 2" wilh "Olher supporling slall",
Clear (remove lhe conlenl. all numbers, lexls and lormulas) lhe cells ol rows "Calegory 3" and
Ratio Teacher/Category 3
Check lhe CO5T, and ECAP worksheets for the effect of the changes and correct as necessary.
You can check which other worksheets in the model are affected by the changes by using Excel
-> formuIa -> Trace DependenIs feature.
2a: As there is no particular policy for providing education staff with dedicated rooms, the
Ministry of Education does not see a need to keep a separate Staff rooms featured under
the INfA5TUCTUE AND fACILITIE5 secIion D of the model in the PIM worksheet.
Instead, the Staff rooms should be included in Other rooms. Remove the Staff rooms
category from the model in primary education.
PART TWO
103
3 / EPSSim Adaptation Exercise
Tips in the PRIM worksheet
Under lhe D. INfA5TUCTUE AND fACILITIE5 secIion, include lhe baseline value ol
"Slall rooms" inlo "Olher rooms".
Clear lhe conlenls ol lhe (lhree) rows aboul Slall rooms in PubIic, PrivaIe and ToIaI
sub-secIions, (Nole. 8elore removing lhe conlenl ol lhe cell, by using Lxcel -> formuIa ->
Trace DependenIs lealure, check whelher cells in olher worksheels mighl be allecled.)
ln lhe calegory "Olher rooms", correcl lhe lexl inside lhe brackels in all occurrences
in lhe worksheel.
Check whelher changes are allecled in olher worksheels and correcl as necessary.
2b: Aller adjusling lhe model, lhe Minislry makes lwo lurlher requesls lor model adaplalion.
! The minislry would like lo have headmasler ollces in Primary schools (currenlly
250 public and !00 privale schools have headmasler ollces) as a specilc ilem, because
lhe governmenl is keen on improving working condilions lor headmaslers by providing
lhem wilh ollce space (largeling classroom/headmasler room ralio ol 20 and 30 lor
lhe public and privale seclors respeclively in lhe coming len years). The price ol a
headmasler's ollce should be equal lo lhe average classroom cosl.
2 The Minislry would like lo have a librarian in Secondary ! (Ceneral educalion) schools
(currenlly lhere are !65 librarians in public and 7 in privale schools), because lhey
wanl lo develop lhal aspecl ol qualily ol educalion (largeling a leacher/librarian ralio
ol 50 and 30 in lhe public and privale seclor respeclively in len years). Per capila CDP
mulliplier lor librarian is same as lechnical assislanl.
Tips to adapt the model for request 1
ln the PRlM worksheet
Under lhe D. INfA5TUCTUE AND fACILITIE5. PubIic secIion, inserl lhe inlormalion ol
head masler ollces in lhe 3 blank rows (which is due lo lhe previous exercise ol incorporaling
slall rooms inlo lhe olher rooms) belore lhe 5ecIion on ToiIeIs and label approprialely by
looking al olher lypes ol room,
Lnler lhe numbers ol headmasler rooms in lhe baseline year, lhe largel classroom/headmasler
ollce ralio and lhe expecled number ol years lo reach lhe largel,
Copy lormulas lor projecled years (lrom columns l lo T) lrom anolher lype ol room such as
Classroom and pasle lhem inlo lhe newly inserled rows in lhe public seclor,
Make necessary changes in lhe relevanl cells,
Do lhe same lor lhe privale seclor and lhe lolal sub-seclions,
104
ln the COST worksheet
Under CO5T PO1ECTION5l5IMULATION5 Y EDUCATION LEVEL. 1. Primary educaIion
(pubIic) secIion. ToIaI ConsIrucIions & oIher invesImenIs secIion, input the relevant
heading and policy targets;
Updale lhe conslruclion cosl lormulas lor primary (New conslruclions, New equipmenl and
Reconstruction rows) by inserting references to the headmaster rooms;
ln the RCAP worksheet
Under lhe D. INfA5TUCTUE AND fACILITIE5. D1. Primary EducaIion. PubIic secIion,
insert (two) rows before the toilets for the headmaster ofces and label appropriately by looking
at others types of room;
Copy lormulas lor projecled years (lrom columns l lo T) lrom anolher lype ol room such as
Classroom and paste them into the newly inserted rows;
Do lhe same lor lhe PrivaIe and ToIaI secIions.
Tips to adapt the model to request 2
ln the SC1 worksheet
Under lhe . TEACHING AND NON-TEACHING 5TAff. GeneraI 1C secIion, insert one row
each for librarians in Public, Private and Total sections between Total technical assistants and
Total supervisory staff and label them properly;
Do nol lorgel lo add a row in lhe ralio seclion lo creale a space lor simulaling lhe leacher/
librarians ratio over the projection years.
ln each ol lhe new rows, enler lhe baseline numbers, lhe largel leacher/librarians ralio and lhe
number of years to reach them.
Copy lormulas lrom anolher slall calegory (columns L lo U) inlo lhe new rows and check lheir
validity;
ln the COST worksheet
Under CO5T PO1ECTION5l5IMULATION5 Y EDUCATION LEVEL. 2. 5econdary educaIion
I. ecurrenI cosIs. 2.2 OIher sIa!! and adminisIraIive cosIs secIion), insert a row for
librarians and label them properly;
lnpul lhe appropriale value ol "Per capila CDP mulliplier" in lhe baseline column,
lnpul lhe appropriale lormula al column l and copy lo column C lhrough T,
ln the RCAP worksheet
Under . TEACHING AND NON-TEACHING 5TAff. 2. 5econdary EducaIion I.PubIic.Nev
oIher sIa!! requiremenIs secIion, insert a row for librarians and label them properly;
lnpul lhe appropriale lormula al column l and copy lo column C lhrough T,
PART TWO
105
ACTIVITY 2: SEPARATING OUT AN EDUCATION COMPONENT
uestion: Fishermen represent 5% of the total population, but recent studies show that pupils
from Fishermen are marginalized on the basis of their life style and do not enter junior secondary level
after completing primary education. The Government wants to a set enrolment goal for this group to
3% of the total enrolments in public Junior Secondary in next 10 years, within the already set target
for gross enrolment ratio (GER) in the public sector. You are requested to adapt EPSSim accordingly.
Note that in the baseline year the enrolment of pupils from marginalized shermen was only 920
males and 610 females in regular government schools.
Given that these children will be attending school in the same classes as other children, we dont
need particular projections for staff and infrastructure.
Explain why there is no need to change anything in the COST worksheet.
Tips:
ln the SC1 worksheet
Under lhe A. ENOLMENT5. Gross EnroImenI aIios. PubIic secIion, insert (three) rows
in for the shermen children in the public sector and enter their labels under the heading of
which Fishermen;
Lnler lhe baseline dala lrom lhe inlormalion above in lhe appropriale cells,
Lnler lhe lormula lo calculale lhe lolal (bolh sexes) enrolmenls lor lshermen children in lhe
appropriate cell;
Lnler largels lor lhese percenlages (male and lemale) as well as lhe number ol years lo reach
them in the appropriate cells;
Lnler lhe annual incremenl lormulas lo lhe appropriale cells al lhe lshermen children seclion
and update them if necessary;
ln lhe baseline year in lhe projeclion seclion (column l), enler lormulas lo calculale lhe
percentages of public enrolments for male and female shermen children;
Lnler lhe lormulas (columns C lo T) lor projecling lheir share in public enrolmenls, and check
that they are consistent (take example from any similar projection targeting percentages);
Under A. ENOLMENT5. 5IudenI enroImenIs. 5econdary I (IoIaI). PubIic secIion, insert
rows for male, female and total for shermen children and enter the appropriate labels;
Lnler lhe lormulas lo calculale lshermen children aclual enrolmenls,
Do nol lorgel lo check lhe consislency ol lhe lolal public enrollmenl and lhe disaggregaled
types of public enrollment. Do the necessary changes if you notice consistency issues (i.e. check
the formula for the total students enrollments in every type of public education)
106
ACTIVITY 3: ENABLING NFE PROGRAMMES AND ADDING STUDY FIELDS IN
HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS
uestion 1: The government sponsored Better Life for Family (BLR) NGO is implementing the
national family planning and life skills education programme targeting women age 15 to 49 in
rural areas. In 2010, there were 15,000 women in the target age-group attending the programme.
Due lo ils popularily, il was eslimaled lhal !0 ol women aged !5 lo 49 should benell
from the programme in the next 10 years.
This programme is currenlly being organised wilh !25 lrainers and 25 assislanl lrainers. However
the agency is planning to improve the learners-trainer ratio to 50:1 over 10 years along with a
proportion of 90% of trainers and 10% of assistant trainers. It is also expected that the teacher
attrition rate is 5% given that the NFE programme, the teacher turn-over is high.
Currenl lexlbook-learner ralio is 0.5 per learner and il is aimed lo improve lhis ralio lo !. The
average lifespan of the textbook is 3 years.
Pegarding lhe leaching guides, each lrainer is provided wilh ! leaching guide and lhis ralio
shall be maintained. The average lifespan of the guide is 3 years.
Since lhe courses are organized al lhe exisling schools and communily learning cenlers in
the evening, there is no additional cost required for infrastructure and classroom facilities.
Furthermore other associated costs are similar to the other NFE programmes.
Since lhere is no parenlal educalion programme in lhe counlry, lhe Minislry decided lo
introduce the above-mentioned BLR.
You are requesled lo reecl on lhis programme in lhe currenl version ol LPSSim.
Tips:
ln the NI worksheet,
Under lhe NfE. 5PECIfIC NON fOMAL EDUCATION POGAMME5 secIion, give to this
new programme (Family planning and life skill education) the place held by the Programme 4
(Parental education in proportion to 0 to 2);
Adjusl lhe label and enler relevanl dala and largels in all lhe necessary seclions,
Peplace 0 al lhe rows and seclion which are previously prepared lor lhe programme "Parenlal
education in proportion to 0 to 2 but now become irrelevant for the new programme, e.g. since
it is the government sponsored programme, all cells relevant to the private section should be 0;
Check il your change is relecled lhroughoul lhe NlL worksheel (Teaching and non-leaching
staff, Textbooks & teaching guides, Infrastructure. If not, make the necessary adaptation.
PART TWO
107
uestion 2: The Ministry has recently introduced a new tertiary level programme on agriculture
in public non-university institutes. You are requested to adapt EPSSim to capture this new study eld
in the public (Remember that it might be more convenient if the structure remains similar between
the public system and private sectors to improve comparison.) For the sake of this exercise, assume
that the baseline enrolment is 2500 in public non-university institutes, of which 500 are females and
that the target share of agriculture in public non-university enrolments is 10% for males and 5%
for females in 10 years. To align with the new programme, the government also would also like to
revise its programme targets in the public non-university institutes as follows: to reduce the targets
for male enrolment from 15% to 10% in the Social and Human Sciences as well as Teacher Training;
the target for Female from 15% to 10% in Medical.
Tips:
ln the HD worksheet
ln lhe "Lnrolmenls by lype and specializalion ()" seclion ol lhe "Olher Terliary Lducalion.
Public section, insert (three) rows for agriculture just before the Medical eld;
Lnler lhe labels lor lhis new sludy leld as well as baseline dala, lhe largel share ol enrolmenls
and number of years to reach it;
Pevise lhe largels ol Social and Human Sciences, Teacher Training and Medical accordingly.
Copy/Pasle lrom anolher sludy leld lhe lormulas lor projeclions. Check lhe validily ol copied
formulas and correct them.
Updale lhe lormulas lor lhe dillerenl lolals, male and lemale in lhe "Lnrolmenls by lype and
specialization (%): Other Tertiary Education section to take into account this new study eld,
both for the baseline, and the projection years;
ln lhe "Lnrolmenls by lype and specializalion" seclion, inserl (lhree) rows lor lhe agricullure
study eld same as in the above Enrolments by type and specialization (%),properly label them
and copy the formulas for the projections from another study eld;
Check lor any error messages in lhe worksheel. ln parlicular, check lhe consislency ol lhe
Enrolments by type and specialization (%) section and make appropriate changes if necessary.
ACTIVITY 4: REMOVING OR REPLACING A SUB-LEVEL COMPONENT
Question: In the ECCE worksheet, EPSSim features a component for early childhood care
programmes. In EPSSim, there is only a pre-school education programme for children aged 3-5
years. There is as yet no plan to deal with the younger population. You are therefore requested to
remove it from the model in order to streamline it.
108
Tips:
ln the CC worksheet
Check lhe dependenls in order lo idenlily areas lhal will be allecled by lhe proposed changes.
Delele (nol jusl clear) lhe all worksheel seclions enlirely dedicaled lo early childhood care,
Delele (nol jusl clear) all rows lhal display lgures only lor childhood care (all worksheels),
Correcl lhe lormulas in all rows showing error messages ol lhe lype #Ef! (remove the
#REF!+ portion);
ACTIVITY 5: ADDING A MAJOR SUB-LEVEL COMPONENT
uestion: The Ministry of Education would like to introduce a new in-service teacher training
programme (ICT training) to newly recruited teachers at all levels. The Ministry would like to train
10% of all newly recruited staff at the primary and secondary level from 2010.
In addition to this ICT training programme for teachers, the minister has two other in-service
teacher training programmes (Academic and Professional training) and the costs of all these should
be taken into account as they are in addition to the existing teacher training programmes.
The unil cosl ol lhe lraining is $30. You are requesled lo reecl lhis inlormalion in lhe LPSSim model.
Tips:
ln the TD worksheet
Under IN-5EVICE TEACHE EDUCATION POGAMME5. Pro!essionaI Training,
insert 11 rows;
Lnler lhe label (lCT Training) as a heading similar lo Prolessional Training,
Copy lormulas lor Prolessional Training (Pel Pow. !42 lo !5!) inlo lhe newly inserled rows,
Make necessary changes in lhe relevanl cells,
Do lhe same lor IN-5EVICE TEACHE EDUCATION POGAMME5 in lhe CO5T seclion;
Pelecl lhe cosl ol "IN-5EVICE TEACHE EDUCATION POGAMME5" in the CO5T worksheet.
ACTIVITY 6: REMOVING OR ADDING INDICATORS TO THE SCENARIO LIST
uestion 1: Given that the targets in the area of access to education are better captured
for monitoring and evaluation reasons reasons with enrolment ratios particularly at primary and
junior secondary education, the ofcials in the Ministry of Education wish to remove the actual
enrolment gures from the list of indicators shown in the scenarios. Your task is to remove Student
enrolments from the lists in both primary and junior secondary education.
PART TWO
109
Tips:
ln the viewScenario worksheet
Delele lhe concerned rows under Primary and Secondary ! seclions,
Then, generale a scenario and check lhal lhe new lisl does nol include "Sludenl enrolmenls."
uestion 2: The Ministry also wishes to replace one indicator in the scenarios. Instead of the
total number of classrooms in both primary and secondary levels, they would like to see the number
of new classrooms to be built each year in the scenario list.
Tips:
Change lhe label lrom "No ol classrooms" wilh "No ol new classrooms lo build" in lhe
concerned columns under Primary, Secondary I and Secondary II sections;
Pevise lormulas in lhe respeclive rows lor lhe baseline year making sure lhe lormulas reler
to the appropriate indicator in the appropriate worksheet;
Do lhe same lor each ol lhe largel years (nole lhal you cannol simply righl copy in lhis case)
Then, generale a scenario and check lhe resulls.
ACTIVITY 7: CUSTOMIZING THE YEARS TO SHOW IN THE SCENARIOS
uestion: The EPSSim 2.9c displays projections for 14 years beyond the baseline year (2010/
2011), the current scenario view is set to display four projection years such as: Base year +5
(2015/2016), Base year +8 (2018/2019), Base year +11 (2021/2012) and Base year +14 (2024/2025).
Check this fact by generating the current scenario (go to the menu: EP55im UIiIiIies -> 5cenarios
-> GeneraIe scenarios -> OK -> OK). Generating a second scenario will display gures for exactly
the same years.
Let us suppose that the Ministry prefers to show indicator values for the four years immediately
after base year (2010/2011) such as 2011/2012, 2012/13, 2013/14, 2014/2015. You are requested
to input the required change.
Tips:
The years lhal are displayed in lhe view are delermined in lhe cells localed in a parlicular area.
the range AD4...AG5. Go to the Cells (from AD4 to AG4) and change the formula in order to
obtain the requested years;
Selecl lhe column AD and inpul a blankel replacemenl lo relecl lhe dala ol 20!!/20!! inslead
of 2015/2016;
Take similar aclion lo olher columns (AL, Al, AC) lo relecl lhe dala in lhe respeclive years,
Cenerale lhe scenario and check lhe resulls.
110
ACTIVITY 8: EDITING MENUS AND UPDATE THE FLOW CHART
uestion 1: In order to ease the access to the non-formal education section, you are requested
to create a dedicated set of sub-menu items for the Non-Formal Education in the EPSSim 2.9a under
Simulation/Projection Excel -> Non-Formal Education;
Tips:
ln the MenuSheet worksheet
Add lhree new enlries (!. Lileracy, 2. School Peinlegralion and 3. Specilc NlL Programmes) repres-
enting the components of non-formal education under the sub-menu Non-Formal Education;
Co lo ExceI Menu. Viev -> Macros -> Viev Macros, then go to the macro SimNFE;
Pevise lhe macro as necessary,
Save and close LPSSim and reopen il lo apply changes.
uestion 2: Please adapt the EPSSim Flow Chart accessible from the START worksheet to display
shortcut button(s) to these components.
Tips:
ln the Diagram worksheet
lnserl lhree bullons and assign lhe relevanl macros,
Save and close LPSSim and reopen il lo apply changes.

PART TWO
111
4 Solutions of the Simulation Exercise:
Working on Scenarios
ACTIVITY 1: Developing a Status Quo Scenario
BASELINE Scenario 1 status Quo
Year 2009 2010 2013 2015 2020
Gross intake rate 105.0% 104.6% 103.6% 103.0% 102.0%
Gross enrolment ratios 92.1% 92.4% 91.8% 91.3% 90.5%
Public 92.1% 92.4% 91.8% 91.3% 90.5%
Pupil/teacher ratio 35 35 35 35 35
Class size 38 38 38 38 38
# Teaching staff 180,860 185,760 197,688 205,870 228,871
# Non-teaching staff 30,456 31,281 33,290 34,668 38,541
Core textbooks 868,261 892,027 950,083 989,943 1,101,440
Classrooms 164,160 168,751 180,046 187,818 209,336
Recurrent costs 36,171,652 37,283,884 40,103,350 42,061,224 47,606,253
Teachers (Wage, etc.) 27,216,098 28,059,126 30,200,780 31,688,922 35,909,160
Other staff 4,755,523 4,903,445 5,279,703 5,541,257 6,281,602
Other recurrent costs 4,200,032 4,321,313 4,622,867 4,831,045 5,415,491
Capital costs 6,629,098 6,300,828 6,739,955 7,023,834 7,858,353
Total Primary education 42,800,751 43,584,712 46,843,305 49,085,058 55,464,606
EXPENDITURE FRAMEWORK (000,000)
27% 27% 27% 27% 27%
Resources for primary education 36,605 37,630 40,880 43,202 49,598
Gap Simulation Costs vs. Budget (%) 16.9% 15.8% 14.6% 13.6% 11.8%
Recurrent 10.3% 10.6% 9.5% 8.7% 7.2%
Capital 73.7% 60.6% 58.1% 55.9% 51.9%
Additional amount to mobilize (000) 6,195,751 5,954,772 5,963,118 5,883,530 5,866,548
Unit Costs (000) 6.78 6.72 6.78 6.82 6.92
4 / Solutions of the Simulation Exercise: Working on Scenarios
112
Reading and Analysing the Status Quo Scenario
WhaI couId you say abouI Ihe GI? WhaI does iI mean !or Ihe educaIion sysIem?
(Think !rom a pupiI's perspecIive)
As you can see in the table above, most children will have entered the rst grade of primary
education (more than 100 percent gross intake rate through 2015 and beyond). The intake rate
was rather high in 2009 at 105%. This is most probably due to the backlog of eligible children who
didnt enrol in school on time in the past and showed en masse following an announcement of the
school fee abolition, since the Minister of Education had decided to speed-up the achievement of
UPE in EPSsimia. However, this high rate is likely to decrease over the years to reach around 100%
as the backlog is absorbed. As we are considering a gross ratio, the phenomena of under-aged, but
most of all over-aged children may signicantly impact the gures and ratios and may not give an
accurate picture of the intake of legal age children. We know that in normal situations whereby all
children enter the school on time, GIR (gross intake rate) and NIR (net intake rate) are theoretically
the same. In practice, especially in countries with low enrolment, this ratio can be either much more
or less than 100.
Look aI Ihe GE and commenI iIs projecIion. (ear in mind Ihe UPE objecIive and IransIaIe
Ihe indicaIor !rom an educaIion sysIem poinI o! viev.)
Since the GIR is over 100 percent over the period observed, one would expect that if 100 pupils
entered grade 1 of primary school and if these pupils remain through the end of the cycle without
dropping out of the system, GER would be at least 100%. Nevertheless, the GER will be 91.3% in
2015 and even less in 2020 (90. 5%).
Hov can you expIain Ihe decrease o! Ihe GE vhiIe Ihe GI remains over 100% over Ihe
period? WhaI are Ihe oIher !acIors IhaI can negaIiveIy impacI Ihe GE?
The rst reason is that some pupils would have left the school without completing the cycle.
Ensuring that all children are admitted in the rst grade of primary education is a necessary
condition for achieving universal primary education, but not sufcient. The entire school cohort
that entered the grade 1 of primary level should complete this level in order to achieve universal
primary education.
Besides, the number of repeaters is high across all grades. As we have seen above, 92% GER
in 2009 will gradually drop to about 90% in 2020. But the actual situation is even worse than
reected in that GER decrease as the enrolments include numerous repeaters occupying the school
places, thus inating the GER gure. This implies that by extrapolation, there are many children
who are non-enrolled or missing out on primary schooling. One can easily gure from the previously
commented ratios that the coefcient of efciency of the system is very low. The coefcient of
efciency of a system can be translated as the immediate internal return to the investment made
in a given education system. When an education system is dysfunctional because of low internal
efciency ratios (high repetition and drop-out rates, low promotions rates), we can conclude a
high wastage rate.
PART TWO
113
AnaIyse Ihe resource requiremenIs (Ieachers and in!rasIrucIure) and compare iI Io Ihe GE.
Hov vouId you expIain such a phenomena?
The resource requirements for both teachers and classrooms are signicantly increasing over the
period: +26.5% and +27.5% respectively. In other words, more than a quarter of the teacher and
classroom stocks of 2009 will have to be hired and constructed in about 10 years. One may think that
this increase is reasonable. Because of the demographic pressure, the education system will have to
give access to more and more children in absolute terms who need to be accommodated with new
teachers and classrooms. This would have been even more understandable if the UPE target would
have been achieved. However, we know now that under this scenario, the GER is decreasing and the
system is moving farther away from the UPE target leaving a consequent number of children out of
the school. In the previous question, we have explored the concept of wastage rate. This wastage
rate gets a concrete meaning when we observe the paradox of this situation. Less and less eligible
children are going to school but the Government will have to invest more and more in education to
address the increasing needs for teachers and infrastructure.
As we have seen above, the internal efciency was very low (low promotion rate, high
repetition and drop-out rates) in 2009; this low internal efciency is transferred and
projected to the future, thus leading to continued high wastage rate in the system.
The rst front would thus be to increase the efciency of the system, especially by
reducing the repetition rate. Pupils repeating once or twice would have used two or three
times more resources (such as teachers and classrooms). By improving the internal efciency, one will
save the budget to hire more teachers and to construct new schools, which will in turn contribute to
improving the quality in education. Another decision is to increase the nancial resources devoted to
education, both in terms of recurrent and capital allocations, in order to accommodate the need for
improving the quality of learning conditions and the demographic pressure on education services.
BASELINE Scenario 1 Status Quo Scenario 2 Alternative
Year 2009 2010 2013 2015 2020 2010 2013 2015 2020
Gross intake rate 105.0% 104.6% 103.6% 103.0% 102.0% 104.6% 103.6% 103.0% 102.0%
Gross enrolment ratios 92.1% 92.4% 91.8% 91.3% 90.5% 92.4% 94.1% 96.0% 101.3%
Public 92.1% 92.4% 91.8% 91.3% 90.5% 92.4% 94.1% 96.0% 101.3%
Pupil/teacher ratio 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35
Class size 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38
# Teaching staff 180,860 185,760 197,688 205,870 228,871 185,760 202,460 216,407 256,282
# Non-teaching staff 30,456 31,281 33,290 34,668 38,541 31,281 34,093 36,442 43,157
Core textbooks 868,261 892,027 950,083 989,943 1,101,440 892,027 973,015 1,040,609 1,233,355
Classrooms 164,160 168,751 180,046 187,818 209,336 168,751 184,392 197,431 234,408
Recurrent costs 36,171,652 37,283,884 40,103,350 42,061,224 47,606,253 37,283,884 41,071,322 44,213,951 53,307,880
Teachers (Wage, etc.) 27,216,098 28,059,126 30,200,780 31,688,922 35,909,160 28,059,126 30,929,734 33,310,786 40,209,869
Other staff 4,755,523 4,903,445 5,279,703 5,541,257 6,281,602 4,903,445 5,407,139 5,824,863 7,033,927
Other recurrent costs 4,200,032 4,321,313 4,622,867 4,831,045 5,415,491 4,321,313 4,734,449 5,078,302 6,064,084
Capital costs 6,629,098 6,300,828 6,739,955 7,023,834 7,858,353 6,683,848 7,884,187 8,609,594 9,210,125
Total Primary education 42,800,751 43,584,712 46,843,305 49,085,058 55,464,606 43,967,732 48,955,510 52,823,545 62,518,005
Education resources as % of Total Gov. Resources 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27%
Resources for primary education 36,605 37,630 40,880 43,202 49,598 37,630 40,880 43,202 49,598
Gap Simulation Costs vs. Budget (%) 16.9% 15.8% 14.6% 13.6% 11.8% 16.8% 19.8% 22.3% 26.0%
Recurrent 10.3% 10.6% 9.5% 8.7% 7.2% 10.6% 12.2% 14.3% 20.0%
Capital 73.7% 60.6% 58.1% 55.9% 51.9% 70.3% 85.0% 91.1% 78.1%
Additional amount to mobilize (000) 6,195,751 5,954,772 5,963,118 5,883,530 5,866,548 6,337,792 8,075,323 9,622,018 12,919,947
Unit Costs (000) 6.78 6.72 6.78 6.82 6.92 6.78 6.92 6.98 6.97
ACTIVITY 2: Developing an Exploratory Scenario
114-115
116
Reading and analysing the Exploratory Scenario
Hov do you compare Ihe gross enroImenI raIios beIveen 5cenarios 1 and 2 and
vhaI do you Ihink are Ihe main drivers !or Ihese changes? (Think in Ierms o! UPE)
Both scenarios have the same intake rates. However, according to Scenario 2, the system would
be achieving universal primary schooling by 2020, thanks to improved internal efciency. In the
rst scenario, GERs have been decreasing mainly due to dropouts, while in the second scenario,
the improved ow rates (especially higher promotion rate) will lead to 100% GER by 2020. In this
scenario, repetitions are rather marginal (only around 5%), while the drop-out will gradually reduce
to almost nil by 2020. In 2020, the country will almost reach the goal of UPE which means that the
quasi totality of primary school age children will have entered and completed the primary school
cycle. Nevertheless, we know that in order to achieve a perfect universal primary education, the
net enrolment ratio is a more reliable indicator to be used. Since the gross enrolment ratios do not
consider the age of the pupils enrolled (both pupils above or below the legal age group will be
in the system), and given the 5% repetition rate, it happens that GER inates the situation. This
explains the over 100% GER in 2020.
Hov do you compare Ihe resource requiremenIs (incIuding Ieachers and cIassrooms)
beIveen 5cenarios 1 and 2?
In Scenario 2, the resource requirements in terms of teachers and classrooms are higher than in
Scenario 1, mainly due to the increased school enrolments in absolute terms. Both the recurrent and
capital costs will subsequently remain important according to Scenario 2. Because of the reduced
wastages and improved internal efciency, we can however say that the productivity of teachers
and the investment return of classrooms are much bigger in Scenario 2 than in Scenario 1.
Hov do you compare Ihe nancing gaps beIveen 5cenarios 1 and 2 and vhaI are Ihe
main drivers !or Ihese changes?
The simulation allows us not only to identify the resources needed to achieve the policy goals but
also the likely nancial gaps. The nancial gaps in Scenario 2 will be higher than in Scenario 1. This
is due to increased enrolments and subsequent increased requirements for teachers and classrooms.
Increasing domestic funding will be necessary to reduce these gaps. Such increases can be made
possible by improving the scal pressure, and also by increasing the share of education expenditure
in total government expenditure. Negotiations with the ministries of nance or economic planning
will be necessary to convince of the need for allocating more funds to education. On the other
hand, education ministries will demonstrate to external donors that their plan is credible, thereby
attracting more additional resources for the implementation of the national education policy. Most
importantly, efforts to reduce the nancial gaps will have to come from within the system through
the rational use of allocated resources. These include improving the internal efciency of the system,
ensuring that resources are used efciently and effectively and working out some options for trade-
offs within and across the sub-sectors.
PART TWO
117
In Scenario 2, although we have maintained the same gross intake rate as in
Scenario 1 (status quo), the system would have achieved UPE by 2020, mainly
due to improved internal efciency (high promotion rate, low repetition rate
and no dropouts). The budget decit will increase gradually, and remain important
through 2020 (around 26%). The requirements for teachers and classrooms will increase by
35% in 2015 (27% in Scenario 1). In this scenario, the internal efciency will improve greatly.
Increasing the internal efciency over the years in order to achieve UPE is certainly an achievement,
however the question remains as to whether it is possible to actually achieve and sustain it, without
improving the quality of education. We also know that one of the ways of improving the internal
efciency is through improving the quality of education, especially the learning conditions so as to
retain pupils in school and decrease the costs for the parents to enrol their children.
BASELINE Scenario 1 Status Quo Scenario 2 Alternative Scenario 3 Alternative
Year 2009 2010 2013 2015 2020 2010 2013 2015 2020 2010 2013 2015 2020
Gross intake rate 105.0% 104.6% 103.6% 103.0% 102.0% 104.6% 103.6% 103.0% 102.0% 104.6% 103.6% 103.0% 102.0%
Gross enrolment ratios 92.1% 92.4% 91.8% 91.3% 90.5% 92.4% 94.1% 96.0% 101.3% 92.4% 94.1% 96.0% 101.3%
Public 92.1% 92.4% 91.8% 91.3% 90.5% 92.4% 94.1% 96.0% 101.3% 92.4% 94.1% 96.0% 101.3%
Private 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pupil/teacher ratio 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 35 35 35 35
Class size 180,860 185,760 197,688 205,870 228,871 185,760 202,460 216,407 256,282 38 38 38 38
# Teaching staff 30,456 31,281 33,290 34,668 38,541 31,281 34,093 36,442 43,157 185,760 202,460 216,407 256,282
# Non-teaching staff 868,261 892,027 950,083 989,943 1,101,440 892,027 973,015 1,040,609 1,233,355 32,384 39,472 45,805 62,240
Core textbooks 164,160 168,751 180,046 187,818 209,336 168,751 184,392 197,431 234,408 1,561,048 3,892,060 4,994,924 7,400,130
Classrooms 164,160 168,751 180,046 187,818 209,336 168,751 184,392 197,431 234,408 168,751 184,392 197,431 234,408
Recurrent costs 36,171,652 37,283,884 40,103,350 42,061,224 47,606,253 37,283,884 41,071,322 44,213,951 53,307,880 37,667,589 42,849,642 46,998,803 58,493,984
Teachers (Wage, etc.) 27,216,098 28,059,126 30,200,780 31,688,922 35,909,160 28,059,126 30,929,734 33,310,786 40,209,869 28,084,243 31,040,524 33,489,809 40,534,142
Other staff 4,755,523 4,903,445 5,279,703 5,541,257 6,281,602 4,903,445 5,407,139 5,824,863 7,033,927 5,075,956 6,257,859 7,316,903 10,133,536
Other recurrent costs 4,200,032 4,321,313 4,622,867 4,831,045 5,415,491 4,321,313 4,734,449 5,078,302 6,064,084 4,507,389 5,551,260 6,192,092 7,826,306
Capital costs 6,629,098 6,300,828 6,739,955 7,023,834 7,858,353 6,683,848 7,884,187 8,609,594 9,210,125 6,683,848 7,884,187 8,609,594 9,210,125
27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27%
Resources for primary education 36,605 37,630 40,880 43,202 49,598 37,630 40,880 43,202 49,598 37,924 42,172 45,265 53,194
Gap Simulation Costs vs. Budget (%) 16.9% 15.8% 14.6% 13.6% 11.8% 16.8% 19.8% 22.3% 26.0% 16.9% 20.3% 22.9% 27.3%
Recurrent 10.3% 10.6% 9.5% 8.7% 7.2% 10.6% 12.2% 14.3% 20.0% 10.9% 13.4% 15.9% 22.8%
Capital 73.7% 60.6% 58.1% 55.9% 51.9% 70.3% 85.0% 91.1% 78.1% 69.0% 79.3% 82.4% 66.0%
Additional amount to mobilize ('000) 6,195,751 5,954,772 5,963,118 5,883,530 5,866,548 6,337,792 8,075,323 9,622,018 12,919,947 6,427,738 8,562,092
Unit Costs ('000) 6.78 6.72 6.78 6.82 6.92 6.78 6.92 6.98 6.97 6.84 7.17 7.35 7.55
ACTIVITY 3: Developing an Alternative and a Reference Scenario
118-119
120
READING AND ANALYSING THE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Hov do you compare Ihe gross enroImenI raIios on Ihe one hand and Ihe resource
requiremenIs (incIuding Ieachers and cIassrooms) on Ihe oIher hand beIveen
5cenarios 2 and 3 and vhaI are Ihe main drivers !or Ihese changes?
The enrolment ratios are the same in both scenarios. Nevertheless, the resource requirements are
more important in scenario 3. Increasing the number of supervisory staff, the provision of textbooks
and teaching guides have had implications for resources. The learning and teaching conditions will
clearly improve. One will also need to see if the resources required for this scenario can be secured
and sustained. On the other hand, given the importance and duration of primary education, there
is a clear need to allocate more resources to this education level.
Hov do you compare Ihe nancing gaps beIveen 5cenarios 1, 2 and 3, and can any o! Ihe
Ihree scenarios be an accepIabIe one? I! noI, vhaI do you Ihink shouId be done in order
Io design an accepIabIe scenario?
In this scenario, the resources required for both recurrent and capital costs are much higher than in
both the rst and second scenarios. Quality inputs have been improved to contribute to enhanced
internal efciency and increased enrolments in primary education. However, the budget decit
will be substantial. Scenario 1 has the least nancial requirements, but universal primary schooling
will not be achieved. Scenarios 2 and 3 look for an improvement both in terms of access and
quality. The nancial efforts are important in the order of 20-25% in terms of nancial gaps,
culminating in 2020 above 25%. On average, in scenario 2 and 3, the nancial gaps will be around
21.8% and 21.3% respectively and throughout the period. A nancing gap above 20% cannot be
included into a credible plan. Either you search for grants or borrow loans, or you will have to take
necessary measures to reduce down the gaps. Such options could include introducing double shift,
savings in school construction costs, supporting private education, increasing domestic resources
for education, especially for primary education, reducing non-teaching staff, and/or reviewing staff
salary levels.

EEPSSim: EEdduccccccaaaaatttiiioooonn PPPPoolliicyyy && Stratteeggyy Simmuullationn MMoodel
PART TWO
121
5 Solutions of the Adaptation Exercise
ACTIVITY 1
Ansvers 1
1 Open the PIM worksheet;
2 Use Ctrl+F to open the Excel Iind command; the type Total non-teaching staff
to locate the secIion on non-Ieaching sIa!!; Then the cursor will be at the PubIic
secIion of non-teaching staff Cell: A234);
3 Move down the cursor to the cell Category 1 and replace with Administrative
staff (Ref Cell:A235);
4 Move down the cursor to the cell Category 2 and replace with Other
supporting staff (Ref Cell:A236);
5 Go to row 237 and clear (remove the content: all numbers, texts and formulas)
the cells from B237 to T237;
6 Move down the cursor to the cell Ratio Teacher/Category 1 and replace with
Ratio Teacher/ Administrative staff (Ref Cell:A237);
7 Move down the cursor to the cell Ratio Teacher/Category 2 and replace
withRatio Teacher/ Other supporting staff (Ref Cell:A238);
8 Go to row 240 and clear the cells from B240 to T240;
9 Do the steps 3 to 8 for PrivaIe secIion of non-teaching staff of non-teaching staff;
10 Do the steps 3 to 5 for ToIaI secIion of non-teaching staff;
11 Open CO5T worksheet;
12 Go to Cell:A21; replace Other Staff Category 1with Administrative staff;
13 Go to Cell:A22; replace Other Staff Category 2 with Other supporting staff;
14 Open ECAP worksheet;
15 Under the 1. Primary educaIion secIion, take steps 3 to 5 for PubIic, PrivaIe
and ToIaI secIion o! non-Ieaching sIa!!.
122
Ansver 2a
2 Under D. INfA5TUCTUE AND fACILITIE5. PubIic secIion, at the cell
containing the words Other rooms, complete the wording with including staff
rooms (Ref Cell: A328);
3 Include the baseline value (9000) of Staff rooms (Ref Cell: B322) into Other
rooms (Ref Cell: B328);
4 Select the entire three rows concerning Staff rooms (Ref Cell: 322 to 324) and
clear (remove the content: all numbers, texts and formulas) the cells;
5 Under D. INfA5TUCTUE AND fACILITIE5. PrivaIe secIion, include the
baseline value (150) of Staff rooms (Ref Cell: B339) into Other rooms (Ref
Cell: B345);
6 Do the steps 3 (Ref Rows: 339 to 341)and 4 (Ref Cell:A345) for PrivaIe secIion
of Staff rooms;
7 Do the above step 3 (Ref Rows: 353 to 354) and 4 (Ref Cell:A357) for ToIaI
secIion of Staff rooms;
8 Open CO5T worksheet;
9 Clear the content of the range C35..C38 as these option/target variables are for
the staff room;
10 Open ECAP worksheet;
11 Under D. INfA5TUCTUE AND fACILITIE5. PubIic secIion, clear the contents
of the two rows about Staff rooms (Staff rooms; Staff rooms to build by year)
concerning Staff rooms (Ref Rows: 259 to 260);
12 Do the steps 3 and 4 for PrivaIe secIion of Staff rooms (Ref Rows: 268 to 269);
13 Do the above step 3 and 4 for ToIaI secIion of Staff rooms (Ref Rows: 277 to 278).
PART TWO
123
Ansver 2b l requesI 1
Under lhe D. INfA5TUCTUE AND fACILITIE5. PubIic secIion, insert
the following information on headmaster ofces in the 3 blank rows (which is
due to the previous exercise of incorporating staff rooms into the other rooms)
before the 5ecIion on ToiIeIs,
2 Enter
(a) Headmasters ofce in Cell A322;
(b) Headmasters ofce to build by year in Cell A323;
(c) Classroom/ Headmasters ofce ratio in Cell A324;
(d) the numbers of headmaster rooms (250) in the baseline year in Cell B322;
(e) the target classroom/headmaster room ofce ratio (20) in cell C324;
(f) the expected number of years (10) to reach the target in Cell D324;
3 Copy the Range F325...T327 to F322...T324;
4 Change the formula in Cell F324. The formula should as below:
=IF(F322=0,0,F317/F322)
5 Copy the Cell E327 to E324;
6 Change the formula in Cell G322. The formula should appear below: =G317/G324;
7 Copy the Cell G322 to Range H322 to T322;
8 Change the formula in Cell G323. The formula should appear below:
=MAX(0,G322-F322)+G322*$C318;
9 Copy the Cell G323 to Range H323 to T323;
10 Copy the information from D. INfA5TUCTUE AND fACILITIE5. PubIic secIion.
HeadmasIers' o!ce (Ref Cells: A322..T423) to the blank 3 rows under the
D. INfA5TUCTUE AND fACILITIE5. PrivaIe secIion (Ref Cells: A339..T341).
11 Enter
(a) the number of headmaster rooms (100) in the baseline year in Cell B339;
(b) the target classroom/headmaster room ofce ratio (30) in cell C341;
(c) the expected number of years (10) to reach the target in Cell D341;
12 Under the D. INfA5TUCTUE AND fACILITIE5. ToIaI secIion, in the blank
two rows (Ref Rows: 353 and 354);
13 Enter
(b) Headmasters ofce to build by year in Cell A354;
(c) Formula =F322+F339 in Cell F353;
(d) Formula =F323+F340 in Cell F354;
124
Ansver 2b l requesI 1 continued
14 Copy the Range F353..F354 to Range G353 to T354;
15 Open the CO5T worksheet;
16 Enter 1 in Cells: C37, C38 and C39;
17 Open the ECAP worksheet;
18 Under the D. INfA5TUCTUE AND fACILITIE5. D1. Primary EducaIion.
PubIic secIion, insert the following information on headmaster ofces in the
blank 2 rows (which is due to the previous exercise of incorporating staff rooms
into the other rooms) before the 5ecIion on ToiIeIs,
19 Enter
(b) Headmasters ofce to build each year in Cell A260;
(c) Formula =PRIM!F322 in Cell F259;
(d) Formula =PRIM!F323 in Cell F260;
20 Copy the Range F259...F260 to G259...T260;
21 Do the same for the PrivaIe and ToIaI secIions.
Ansver 2b l requesI 2
1 Open the 5EC1 worksheet;
2 Under the . TEACHING AND NON-TEACHING 5TAff. GeneraI 1C secIion,
between Total technical assistants (Ref Row : 485) and Total supervisory staff
(Ref Row: 486), insert a row;
3 Enter
(a) Librarians in Cell A486;
(b) the numbers of librarians (165) in the baseline year in Cell B486;
4 Copy the Range F485..T485 to F486..T486;
5 Under the . TEACHING AND NON-TEACHING 5TAff. GeneraI 1C secIion,
between Ratio Teacher/Technical assistants (Ref Row: 489) and Ratio Teacher/
Supervisory staff (Ref Row: 490), insert a row;
6 Enter
(a) Ratio teacher/librarians in cell A490;
(b) the target teacher/librarians ratio (50) in the baseline year in Cell C490;
(c) the expected number of years (10) to reach the target in Cell D490;
7 Copy the Range E489...T489 to E490...T490;
PART TWO
125
Ansver 2b l requesI 2 continued
8 Do the same for the PrivaIe ToIaI secIions.
9 Open the RECAP worksheet;
1 0 Under . TEACHING AND NON-TEACHING 5TAff. 2. 5econdary EducaIion
I. PubIic. Nev oIher sIa!! requiremenIs secIion, between Total technical
assistants required (Row ref: 114) and Total supervisory staff required (Row ref:
115), insert a row;
11 Enter
(a) Total librarians required in Cell A115;
(b) Formula =SEC1!F486 in Cell F115;
12 Copy the Cell F115 to G115..T115;
14 Under CO5T PO1ECTION5l5IMULATION5 Y EDUCATION LEVEL. 2.
5econdary educaIion I. ecurrenI cosIs. 2.2 OIher sIa!! and adminisIraIive
cosIs secIion, between Technical assistants (Ref Row: 60) and Supervisory staff
(Ref Row: 61), insert a row;
15 Enter
(a) Librarians in Cell A61;
(b) Formula =B60 in Cell B61 since Per capita GDP multiplier for librarian is same
as technical assistant staff;
(c) Formula =RECAP!F115*$B60*F$7*F$8 in Cell F60;
16 Copy the Cell F61 to G61...T61.
EPSSSiimm:: Educaattion Poollicy & SStrrratteegggyyyy SSSSiimmmuuuuullllllattiioon Model
126
ACTIVITY 2
Ansver
1 Open the 5EC1 worksheet,
2 Under the A. ENOLMENT5. Gross EnroImenI aIios. PubIic secIion, just
before Private(Ref Row: 264), insert 3 rows;
3 Enter the below label in indented format
o Of which: Fishermen in cell A264;
o Male in Cell A265;
o 920 in Cell B265 (Format of the cell should be Number, 0 decimal,
Fill color Yellow);
o 0.3 in Cell C265(Format of the cell should be Percentage, 0 decimal,
Fill color Yellow);
o the expected number of years (10) to reach the target in Cell D265
(Format of the cell should be Number, 0 decimal, Fill color Yellow);
o Formula =B265/F421 in Cell F265 to calculate the percentage of public
enrolments that represent the male shermen children;
o Formula =IF(AND($C265=0,F265=0),0,($C265-$F265)/$D265) in Cell E265
to calculate the annual increment; or copy a similar increment formula from
the PRIM sheet see cell E15 in PRIM;
5 Do step 4 for female (Row ref:266) with appropriate data; Please note that total
public enrolment for female are in row 428;
6 Copy the formula of Cell G258 to G265 to T266;
7 Under A. ENOLMENT5. 5IudenI enroImenIs. 5econdary I (IoIaI). PubIic
secIion, just before Male(Row ref: 421), insert 3 rows;
8 Copy the Range A264...A266 to A421;
9 Enter Formula =F424*F265 in Cell F422;
10 Copy Cell F422 to G422...T422;
11 Enter Formula =F431*F266 in Cell F423;
12 Copy Cell F423 to G423...T423;
13 Enter formula =SUM(F422:F423) in Cell F421;
14 Copy Cell F421 to G421...T421.
PART TWO
127
ACTIVITY 3
Ansver 1
1 Open the NfE worksheet,
2 Under the NfE. 5PECIfIC NON fOMAL EDUCATION POGAMME5. A.
ENOLMENT5. ProjecIions o! poIenIiaI IargeI popuIaIion secIion, replace
the label Programme 4 (Parental education in proportion to 0 to 2) with
Programme 4 (Family planning and life skill education) (Ref Cell: A165);
3 For Male, in the Range F166...T166, replace the old formula with 0;
4 For Female, in Cell F167, replace the old one with a new formula
=SUM(POP!C45:C50);
5 Copy the Cell F167 to G167...T167;
6 Under the NfE. 5PECIfIC NON fOMAL EDUCATION POGAMME5. A.
ENOLMENT5. ProporIions o! chiIdrenladuIIs receiving NfE secIion,
replace the label Programme 4 (Parental education in proportion to 0 to 2) with
Programme 4 (Family planning and life skill education) (Ref Cells: A191 and A221);
7 Replace the old formula with 0 at
o The row concerning Male under Public (Ref Row: 193);
o The rows concerning Private (Ref Row: 195..197);
8 For Female, in Cell B194, replace the one with a new formula =B224/F167;
9 In Cell C194, enter 10%;
10 In Cell B224, enter 15000;
11 Replace the old formula with 0 at
o The row concerning Male under Public (Ref Row: 223);
o The rows concerning Private (Ref Row: 226...227);
12 Under the NfE. 5PECIfIC NON fOMAL EDUCATION POGAMME5. .
TEACHING AND NON-TEACHING 5TAff section, replace the label Programme
4 (Parental education in proportion to 0 to 2) with Programme 4 (Family
planning and life skill education) (Ref Cell: A301);
13 The row concerning (Student/teacher ratio: Public), in Cell C303, enter 50; in Cell
D303, enter 10;
14 Enter teacher attrition rate 5% in Cell C304;
15 Replace the new label Category 1: Trainers in Cell: A306;
16 Enter 125 in Cell B306;
17 Replace the new label Category 2: Assistant trainers in Cell: A307;
18 Enter 25 in Cell B307;
19 Replace 0 at the row concerning Category 3 (Ref Row: 308);
128
Ansver 1 continued
20 Enter 90% in Cell C309 and 10 in Cell D309;
21 Enter 10% in Cell C310 and 10 in Cell D310;
22 Replace 0 at the row concerning Private (Ref Row: 312...321);
23 Under the NfE. 5PECIfIC NON fOMAL EDUCATION POGAMME5. C.
IN5TUCTIONAL MATEIAL5 secIion, replace the label Programme 4 (Parental
education in proportion to 0 to 2) with Programme 4 (Family planning and life
skill education) (Cell ref: A366);
24 Enter 1 in Cells C368 and C 369;
25 Enter 3 in Cell D368 and D369;
26 Under the NfE. 5PECIfIC NON fOMAL EDUCATION POGAMME5. D.
INfA5TUCTUE AND fACILITIE5 secIion, replace 0 at the row concerning
Programme 4 (Ref Row: 404...410).
Ansver 2
1 Open the HED worksheet,
2 Under the A. ENOLMENT5. EnroImenIs by Iype and speciaIizaIion (%).
OIher TerIiary EducaIion. PubIic secIion, insert (3) rows for agriculture just
before the Medical eld (Ref Row: 132);
o Agriculture in Cell A132;
o Male in Cell A133;Female in Cell A134;
Fill color Yellow);
Fill color Yellow);
o 10 in Cells C121, 130, C133 and C137.
o 5 in Cell C134 (Format of the cell should be Percentage, 0 decimal,
Fill color Yellow);
o 10 in Cells D133 and D134 (Format of the cell should be Number, 0 decimal,
Fill color Yellow);
4 Copy Range E129..T131 to E132..T134;
5 Revise the formula of Cell C118, by adding a new Cell C133. A new formula
would look like: =C121+C124+C127+C130+C133+C136;
6 Revise the formula of Cell C119, by adding a new Cell C133. A new formula
would look like: =C122+C125+C128+C131+C134+C137;
PART TWO
129
Ansver 2 continued
7 Under the A. ENOLMENT5. EnroImenIs by Iype and speciaIizaIion.
OIher TerIiary EducaIion. PubIic secIion, insert (3) rows for agriculture just
before the Medical eld (Ref Row: 218);
o Agriculture in Cell A218;
o Male in Cell A219;
o Female in Cell A220;
9 Copy Range F215...T217 to F218...F220.
ACTIVITY 4
Ansver
1 Open the ECCE worksheet;
2 Delete the rows pertaining EALY CHILDHOOD CAE POGAMME5
(Ref Rows: 222 and 397);
4 Delete the rows under the CO5T PO1ECTION5l5IMULATION5 Y EDUCATION
LEVEL. 0b. EarIy chiIdhood care (ECC) (Ref Rows: 278 through 303);
5 Carefully go through the worksheet row by row to look at any #REF! and make
change as necessary. Not all #Ef! need to be replaced or changed. Before doing
anything see relation with this cell and other cells;
6 After going through row by row, you will see #Ef! in the rows 365 to 368.
Remove #REF!+ by highlighting the cells from F364 to T367. Open Excel
Replace dialog box (Cntr + H), put the text as below;
130
Ansver continued
7 By clicking Replace All button, Excel will remove #REF!+ and relevant numbers
will appears in all cells.
8 Do the same for Miscellaneous (Ref Row: 375);
9 You may nd #Ef! in the secIion o! 9b.
ToIaI cosIs ('Non-!ormaI' educaIion) (Ref Row: 380),
ecurrenI cosIs (Ref Row: 381) and
CapiIaI cosIs (Ref Row: 382).
Please do not change ALL. Do the step 6 and 7 for 9b. Total costs (Non-formal
education) (Ref Row: 380) and Capital costs (Ref Row: 382) only; #Ef! will
automatically disappear in Recurrent costs (Ref Row: 381);
10 Do the step 6 and 7 for Wage (Row ref: 397); #Ef! will automatically
disappear in Non salary recurrent (Ref Row: 398);
11 Under the EXPENDITUE fAMEWOK. CosI projecIions (recurrenI & capiIaI)
by edu caIion IeveI secIion, delete the row reference to Early childhood care
(Ref Row: 411);
12 Under the EXPENDITUE fAMEWOK. PercenIage disIribuIion o! cosI
projecIions (recurrenI & capiIaI) by educaIion IeveI secIion, delete the row
reference to Early childhood care (Ref Row: 427), then the rest of the #Ef! will
disappear;
13 Open the 5NAP5 worksheet;
14 Under the UDGETAY AND fINANCING fAMEWOK5. PercenIage
disIribuIion o! cosI esIimaIes !or educaIion by IeveI secIion, delete the row
reference to Early childhood care (Ref Row: 143);
15 Open the Viev5cenario worksheet;
Carefully go through the worksheet row by row to look at any #Ef!
You will see #Ef! in the rows 48 and 55. Revise the formula as necessary to
remove the reference.
PART TWO
131
ACTIVITY 5
Ansver
1 Open the TED worksheet;
2 Under IN-5EVICE TEACHE EDUCATION POGAMME5, after the Professional
Training (Ref Row: 152), insert 11 rows;
3 Copy the Range A142...T151 to A153;
4 Enter
(a) ICT Training in Cell A153;
(b) 10% in Cell B155 and C155;
(c) 10 in Cell D155;
(d) Formula =F155*F20 in Cell F156 (# of staff to enrol in in-service training);
(F20 is the number of new primary teacher recruited);
5 Copy Cell F156 to G156..T156;
6 Do steps 4 and 5 for Secondary I and II teachers; Please note that F21 is the number
of new secondary I teachers recruited and F22 is number of new secondary II
teachers recruited.
7 Under the section of CO5T. IN-5EVICE TEACHE EDUCATION POGAMME5,
before the Total In-service teacher education (Ref Row: 175), insert 4 rows;
8 Copy the Range A171...174 to A175;
9 Enter
(a) ICT Training in Cell A175;
(b) 30 in Cells C176,C177 and C178;
(c) Copy Cell D174 and Paste the value to D176,D177 andD178;
(d) Formula =F156*$C176 in Cell F176; (F156 is # of staff to enrol in
in-service training Primary Teacher)
(e) Formula =F159*$C177 in Cell F177; (F159 is # of staff to enrol in
in-service training Secondary I Teachers)
(f) Formula =F162*$C178 in Cell F178; (F162 is # of staff to enrol in
in-service training Secondary II Teachers)
10 Copy cell F176...F178 to G176...T178;
11 Replace the formula =F167+F171 with =F167+F171+F175 in Cell F179 to
reect the cost of ICT training in year 2010-2011;
12 Copy cell F179 to G179...T179;
14 Enter 1 in the Cell B393 to take into account of cost of In-service teacher training
programmes in the EPSSim model.
132
ACTIVITY 6
Ansver 1
2 Select the rows containing Student enrolments by holding Ctrl and clicking
the respective rows (Ref Rows: 11 and 20);
3 Delete these rows entirely;
4 Generate a new scenario and conrm that the new list does not include
Student enrolments.
Ansver 2
2 Change the label from No of classrooms with No of new classrooms to build
in the concerned cells (Ref Cells: AA12 for Primary education, AA20 for Secondary
education I and AA29 for Secondary education II);
3 For primary education, in Cell AB12, replace the new formula =PRIM!F351 for
base year; (PRIM!F351 is Classrooms to build by year (Apparent))
4 Do the same for each of the target years (note that you cannot simply right copy
in this case)
5 Similar steps 3 and 4 should be done for Secondary education I and Secondary
education II sections.
6 Generate a new scenario and conrm that the changes are reected.
ACTIVITY 7
Ansver
2 Go to the Cell AD4 and change the formula from =$C$4+5 to =$C$4+1.
The year will change from 2015/2016 to 2011/2012;
3 Select column AD and input a blanket replacement of !K with !G
2
to reect
the indicators and gures of the requested year (2011/2012). The reason is in the
worksheets, data of column K is for 2015/2016 while data of column G is for
2011/2012;
4 Do steps 2 and 3 with appropriate formulas for columns AE, AF and AG;
5 Generate the current scenario and check the results.
2 Note: replacing !K with !G rather than simply K with G to avoid unwanted changes.
PART TWO
133
ACTIVITY 8
Ansver 1
1 Open the Menu5heeI worksheet;
2 Insert three rows after the 2&Simulation/Projections: 3Non-Formal Education
(Row 18). Fill the rows with the following information:
Level Caption Position/Macro Divider FaceID
3 Literacy Sim_NFE1
3 School Reintegration Sim_NFE2
3 Specic NFE Programmes Sim_NFE3
3 Go to xcel Menu: view -> Macros -> view Macros, then go to the Macro
name: SimNI
4 Copy Sim_NI to Sim_NI1 and revise the content as necessary. The macro
should be as below:
Sub Sim_NlL!()
Open NFE Worksheet
Sheets(NFE).visible = True
Sheets(NFE).Activate
Range(a7).
134
Ansver 2
1 Open the Diagram worksheet;
2 Insert the three buttons as below by:
3 Copy and paste the OK buIIon in an empty area of the ow chart;
4 Change the text in the newly created button such as Literacy;
5 Move the button near to the Non formal Education button as shown above;
6 ighI cIick on the button and assign the macro to it, for example, assign the
Sim_NlL! marco lo lhe LiIeracy uIIon;
7 Do the steps 3 to 6 for other two buttons School Reintegration and Specic
NFE Programmes by changing to an appropriate text and assigning a relevant
macro;
8 Save and close EPSSim and reopen it to apply changes.
Ansver 1 continued
5 Do the step 4 to create Sim_NI2 and Sim_NI3. The macros should be as below:
Sub Sim_NlL2()
Open NFE Worksheet
Range(a78).Select
End Sub
Sub Sim_NlL3()
Open NFE Worksheet
Range(a151).Select
End Sub
6 Save and close EPSSim and reopen it to apply changes.
PART TWO
EPSSim User Guide
A simulation model is a tool used to analyze and project changes to complex
social and economic systems. In education, it aims to simulate reality and
anticipate the impact of future changes so as to help improve strategic
plan ning and decision-making. Simulation models are particularly useful in
developing holistic, sector-wide education strategies.
This user guide consists of two parts. Part one provides an introduction to
simulation in education planning through the Education Policy and Strategy
Simulation Model (EPSSim). Part two provides practical exercises for using
EPSSim to help strengthen national education policy and planning.

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