Commodities Daily Report

Monday| June 10, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| June 10, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
Chinese markets closed today on the eve of Dragon Boat Festival. US Non-Farm Employment Change increased to 175,000 in May. German Industrial Production rose by 1.8 percent in April. US Unemployment Rate rose to 7.6 percent in last month. Asian equities rise on US data and Japans GDP rises significantly, boosting global sentiments. US Non-Farm Employment Change increased by 26,000 to 175,000 in May as against a rise of 149,000 in April. Unemployment Rate rose to 7.6 percent in last month from earlier increase of 7.5 percent a month ago. Chinas Trade Balance was at surplus of $20.4 billion in May as against a previous surplus of $18.2 billion in April. Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to 2.1 percent in last month from rise of 2.4 percent in April. Producer Price Index (PPI) was at -2.9 percent in May as compared to -2.6 percent a month ago. Industrial Production grew at slower pace of 9.2 percent in May with respect to rise of 9.3 percent in April. Retail Sales gained by 12.9 percent in prior month when compared to rise of 12.8 percent in April. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined 2.1 percent in the last week on the back of favorable economic data from the US. Further, rise in the US equities also exerted downside pressure on the DX. The currency touched a weekly low of 81.065 and closed at 81.66 on Friday. On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee depreciated 0.8 percent on account of heavy dollar demand from oil importers coupled with weak domestic markets. Further, unfavorable manufacturing data from the country added downside pressure on the Rupee. The currency touched a 12-month low of 57.12 in the last week and closed at 57.05 against dollar on Friday. For the month of June 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.117.70 crores th ($20.91 million) as on 7 June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.83,322.80 crores ($15,373.90 million) till 7th June 2013. Japans Current Account was at a surplus of 0.85 trillion Yen in April as against a surplus of 0.34 trillion Yen a month ago. Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose to 1 percent in Q1 of 2013 from earlier increase of 0.9 percent in Q4 of 2012.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 57.05 Prev day -0.2

as on 7 June, 2013 w-o-w -0.8 m-o-m -5.5 y-o-y -2.9

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3222

-0.2

1.7

0.5

5.6

Dollar Index NIFTY

81.66

0.2

-2.1

-1.9

2.8

5881.0

-0.7

-1.8

-3.1

16.5

SENSEX

19429.2

-0.5

-1.7

-2.8

6.2

DJIA

15248.1

1.4

0.9

0.9

22.4

S&P

1643.4

1.3

0.8

1.1

25.0

Source: Reuters

The Euro appreciated 1.7 percent in the last week on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, favorable economic data from the region also supported an upside in the currency. The Euro touched a weekly high of 1.3304 and closed at 1.3222 against the dollar on Friday. German Trade Balance was at a surplus of 17.7 billion Euros in April as against a previous surplus of 17.6 billion Euros a month ago. French Gov Budget Balance was at a deficit of 66.8 billion Euros in April from earlier deficit of 31 billion Euros in prior month. French Trade Balance remained unchanged at a deficit of 4.5 billion Euros in the month of April. German Industrial Production rose by 1.8 percent in April with respect to previous rise of 1.2 percent in former month.

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| June 10, 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Market Highlights - Gold (% change) Spot gold prices declined marginally around 0.2 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which led to fall in safe haven demand. Further, expectations of cut in the stimulus measures by the Fed also exerted downside pressure on prices. The yellow metal touched a weekly low of $1377.29/oz and closed at $1383.89/oz in last trading session of the week. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on account of weakness in the DX. In the Indian markets, prices ended on a positive note, rising 2.4 percent as a result of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.27532/10 gms on Friday after touching a high of Rs. 28099/10 gms in the last week.
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1383.9 Prev. day -2.1 as on 7 June, 2013 WoW -0.2 MoM -6.0 YoY -13.2

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (August13) MCX Gold (August13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

27850.0

0.9

2.9

3.1

-4.9

1386.0

-1.0

-0.6

-5.6

-12.1

$/oz

1383.0

-2.3

-2.0

-3.6

-12.8

Rs /10 gms

27532.0

-1.3

2.4

1.6

-6.9

Silver
Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with mixed performance in base metals group, Spot silver prices declined by 2.6 percent in the last week. The white metal prices touched a weekly low of $21.51/oz and closed at $21.64/oz in last trade of the week. However, sharp downside in prices was prevented as a result of weakness in the DX. On the domestic front, prices dropped 1.4 percent and closed at Rs.43,025/kg after touching a weekly low of Rs.42,933/kg. Market Highlights - Silver (% change)
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (July13) MCX Silver (July13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 21.6 45500.0 Prev day -4.2 0.4

Source: Reuters

as on 7 June, 2013 WoW -2.6 0.6 MoM -9.4 -0.1 YoY -24.0 -16.6

$/oz $/ oz

2260.0 21.7

-0.1 0.0

0.1 -4.3

-5.3 -8.2

-19.8 -23.6

Outlook
In todays trade, gold and silver prices are expected to trade with sideways to upward bias on the back of upbeat global markets. However, strength in the DX will cap sharp gains in prices. Further, no major economic data to be released would keep the prices to trade on a mixed note. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will support an upside in prices. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver MCX Silver July13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for June 10, 2013 Support 1368/1354 27270/27004 21.22/20.71 42400/41805 Resistance 1394/1409 27683/27953 22.02/22.53 43540/44150

Rs / kg

43025.0

-3.3

-1.4

-4.2

-20.8

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| June 10, 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices increased around 4.4 percent in the last week, taking cues from more than expected decline in US crude oil inventories. Further, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in oil prices. Additionally, favorable economic data from US and Euro Zone acted as a positive factor for prices. Crude oil prices touched a weekly high of $96.39/bbl and closed at $96.03/bbl on Friday. On the domestic bourses, prices gained 4.5 percent and the commodity closed at Rs.5,512/bbl, on Friday after touching a high of Rs.5,528/bbl in the last week. Depreciation in the Rupee also acted as a positive factor for oil prices on the MCX. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (July 13) ICE Brent Crude (July13) MCX Crude (June 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 104.3 96.0 Prev. day 0.7 1.3 WoW 3.5 4.4 as on 7 June, 2013 MoM -0.4 0.0 YoY 6.1 13.2

$/bbl

104.6

0.9

4.2

0.2

5.1

Rs/bbl

5512.0

2.0

4.5

5.8

19.2
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (June 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.823 220

(% change)

as on 7 June, 2013

Natural Gas
On a weekly basis, Nymex natural gas prices fell more than 4 percent on the back of more than expected rise in US natural gas inventories. Further, expectations of warm weather conditions exerted downside pressure on prices. Sharp drop in prices was cushioned on account of weakness in the DX. Gas prices touched a weekly low of $3.814/mmbtu and closed at $3.823/mmbtu in last trade of the week. On the domestic front, prices plunged by 3.38 percent and closed at Rs.220.0/mmbtu on Friday after touching a low of $216.80/mmbtu in the last week. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee prevented sharp fall in prices on the MCX. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of Sudan threatens to halts its exports. Further, favorable jobs payrolls data from the US will also support an upside in prices. However, sharp gains will be capped on account of strength in the DX. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will support an upside in prices. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude June13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for June 10, 2013 Support 95.45/94.50 5474/5420 Resistance 97.20/98.10 5566/5620

Prev. day -0.7 0.6

WoW -4.02 -3.38

MoM -2.45 3.33

YoY 67.90 73.78

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| June 10, 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack traded on a mixed note yesterday in the last week on the back of expectations of cut in stimulus spending by Fed. Additionally, rise in US unemployment rate added downside pressure. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on account of weakness in the DX along with positive data from US and Euro Zone. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee prevented sharp fall. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (June13) LME Aluminum (3 month) $/tonne 1933.0 -1.5 1.6 1.3 -2.7 Rs/kg 414.7 -0.5 0.4 2.6 2.6 $/tonne Last 7234.8 Prev. day -1.3 as on 7 June, 2013 WoW -0.6 MoM -7.8 YoY -0.9

Copper
Copper prices fell 0.6 percent in the last week on the back of expectations that Fed will reduce its bond buying program. Further, increase in Shanghai inventories and US unemployment rate added downside pressure. The red metal touched a weekly low of $7221.0/tonne and closed at $7234.80/tonne in the last trade of the week. Sharp downside in prices was cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX coupled with favourable economic data from US and Euro Zone. On the domestic front, prices gained 0.4 percent as a result of depreciation in Rupee and closed at Rs. 414.70/kg, on Friday after touching a weekly low of Rs 413.45/kg. Outlook In todays session, we expect base metal prices to trade on a sideways to negative note on the back of strength in the DX. Further, rise in US unemployment rate and slow growth in Chinas industrial production will add downside pressure in prices. Less movement would be observed as Chinese markets closed today on eve of Dragon Boat festival. In the Indian markets, Depreciation in the Rupee will prevent sharp fall in prices on the domestic bourses. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper June13 MCX Zinc June 13 MCX Lead June 13 MCX Aluminum June13 MCX Nickel June 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for June 10, 2013 Support 411.85/409.0 106.70/105.75 122.75/121.80 108.60/107.80 855/845 Resistance 416.25/419.10 108.35/109.30 124.30/125.20 110.0/110.80 870/877

MCX Aluminum (June13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (June13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (June13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (June13)

Rs /kg

109.4

-0.9

3.3

6.8

0.4

$/tonne

14991.0

-0.4

1.1

-2.7

-10.9

Rs /kg

862.4

0.7

4.1

3.6

-7.6

$/tonne

2161.0

-1.6

-1.7

4.6

14.2

Rs /kg

123.7

-1.0

-0.2

11.0

17.8

$/tonne

1895.3

-2.0

-1.4

-0.1

1.4

Rs /kg

107.6

-1.2

1.2

5.7

3.9

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 7 June 609,875 5,187,275 182,274 1,110,150 205,225
th

6 June 610,375 5,196,025 179,808 1,082,050 207,750

th

Actual Change -500 -8,750 2,466 28,100 -2,525

(%) Change -0.1 -0.2 1.4 2.6 -1.2

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| June 10, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Current Account Final GDP q/q Bank Holiday French Industrial Production m/m FOMC Member Bullard Speaks Country Japan Japan China Euro US Time (IST) 5:20am 5:20am All Day 12:15pm 7:20pm Actual 0.85T 1.0% Forecast 0.39T 0.9% 0.2% Previous 0.34T 0.9% -0.9% Impact High Medium Medium Medium

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