Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| May 28, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| May 28, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
US Dollar Index (DX) fell marginally in yesterdays trading session. Japans Corporate Services Price Index declined by 0.4 percent in April. Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.4 in yesterdays trade. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of expectations of slow economic growth from China coupled with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang statement that economy faces huge challenges. Further, unfavorable corporate goods index from Japan also acted as a negative factor for the markets. The US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a flat note and declined marginally by 0.01 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of low volatility observed in markets on account of closure of US and UK markets. The currency touched an intra-day low of 83.76 and closed at same level on Monday. The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.4 percent in the yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on account of upbeat domestic market sentiments coupled with selling of dollars from exporters. Additionally, weakness in the DX acted as a supportive factor for the currency. However, sharp upside was cushioned as a result of less volatility in the markets on account of closure of US and UK markets. The currency touched an intra-day high of 55.52 and closed at 55.57 against dollar on Monday. For the month of May 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.18,335.80 crores th ($3,358.13 million) as on 27 May 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.79,372.20 crores ($14,668.50 million) till 27 May 2013.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 55.5675 Prev day 0.4

as on 27 May, 2013 w-o-w -1.0 m-o-m -2.6 y-o-y -0.4

$/Euro (Spot)

1.2929

0.0

0.4

-1.3

3.3

Dollar Index NIFTY

83.76

0.0

-0.1

1.9

5.4

6083.2

1.7

-1.2

3.0

23.6

SENSEX

20030.8

1.7

-1.0

3.3

9.5

DJIA

15303.1

0.1

-0.3

3.3

22.1

S&P

1649.6

-0.1

-1.1

4.5

24.9

Source: Reuters

The Euro appreciated marginally in the yesterdays trading session on the back of optimistic European Markets. However, sharp rise in the currency was capped as the markets in the US and UK remained closed on account of public holiday. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.2948 and closed at 1.2929 against dollar on Monday.

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| May 28, 2013

Bullion Gold

International Commodities

Spot gold prices increased by 0.6 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, demand from central banks also supported prices. However, SPDR gold trust holding continued to decline, which capped sharp upside in the prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1396.4/oz and closed at $1394.28/oz in yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices ended on positive note in the yesterday trading session taking cues from spot gold prices and closed at Rs.26446/10 gms after touching an intra-day high of Rs. 26489/10 gms on Monday. Appreciation in the Indian rupee capped sharp upside in the prices.

Market Highlights - Gold (% change)

Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (June13) MCX Gold (June13) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Last 1394.3 26425.0 Prev. day 0.6 0.5

as on 27 May, 2013 WoW 0.0 3.4 MoM -5.5 -3.4 YoY -11.4 -8.4

1390.3

0.7

1.6

-5.5

-11.4

$/oz

1386.8

1.4

1.6

-5.5

-12.0

Rs /10 gms

26446.0

0.2

1.4

-2.6

-8.5

Silver
Taking cues from rise in spot gold prices along with weakness in DX, Spot silver prices gained by 1.1 percent in the yesterdays trading session. Further, optimistic global market sentiments supported prices to trade positive. The white metal prices touched an intra-day high of $22.76 /oz and closed at $22.63/oz in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices increased by 0.3 percent taking cues from spot silver prices and closed at Rs. 43610/kg after touching an intra-day high of Rs. 43742/kg on Monday. Market Highlights - Silver (% change)
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (May13) MCX Silver (May13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 22.6 44960.0 Prev day 1.1 0.5

Source: Reuters

as on 27 May, 2013 WoW -1.3 4.6 MoM -7.7 -3.8 YoY -20.5 -

$/oz $/ oz

2238.0 22.5

-0.4 -0.1

-0.6 0.6

-6.8 -6.8

-20.3 -20.1

Rs / kg

43610.0

0.3

0.8

-3.7

-19.9

Outlook
In the intraday, we expect precious metals to trade on a negative note on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, SPDR gold trust holding decline by 0.24 percent to 1,016.16 tonnes lowest since mid February 2009, which will act as a negative factor for the prices. Additionally, investors will keep an eye on US consumer confidence data which may keep prices under pressure. However, demand from central banks may cushion sharp downside in the prices. In the Indian markets depreciation in the Indian Rupee may prevent sharp decline in the prices. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold June13 Spot Silver MCX Silver May13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for May 28, 2013 Support 1383/1375 26300/26150 22.30/22.05 43200/42700 Resistance 1396/1402 26550/26650 22.70/22.90 44000/44400

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| May 28, 2013

International Commodities
Energy
Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
as on 27 May, 2013 WoW -2.0 -2.6 -1.1 MoM 3.0 -1.8 1.2 YoY 3.5 -5.8 4.7

Crude Oil
Crude Oil Unit $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl Last 93.8 101.6 93.65

Nymex crude oil prices declined marginally by 0.2 percent taking cues from expectations that Chinese economy will grow at slow pace thereby affecting the demand for the fuel in worlds second largest crude oil consumer. Further, it is forecasted that Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will keep its supply target unchanged in st meeting to be held on 31 May, 2013. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned on account of weakness in the DX. Additionally, less volatility was observed as a result of closure on UK markets on eve of Spring Bank Holiday and US markets shut because of Memorial Day. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day low of $93.23 /bbl and closed at $93.65/bbl in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices fell by 0.1 percent on the back of appreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.5,218/bbl after touching an intra-day low of Rs.5207/bbl on Monday. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, statement from Chinese Premier Li Keqiang that economy will face huge challenges ahead along with slow economic growth will add downside pressure on the oil prices. Further, OPEC is forecasted to keep the supply levels st unchanged in its meeting to be held on 31 May. However, sharp downside in the prices will be cushioned on account of US consumer confidence data expected to come on a favorable note. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will prevent sharp fall in the crude oil prices. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude May13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for May 28, 2013 Support 92.80/91.90 5170/5120 Resistance 94.40/95.30 5260/5310

WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (May 13) ICE Brent Crude (May13) MCX Crude (May 13)

Prev. day -0.3 0.8 -0.23

$/bbl

102.6

0.0

-2.1

-1.1

-3.9

Rs/bbl

5218.0

-0.9

-2.1

1.8

3.2
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (May 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 4.223 239.3 Prev. day -1.0 1.2

as on 27 May, 2013

WoW 4.07 5.60

MoM 1.32 5.37

YoY 59.48 62.24

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| May 28, 2013

Base Metals

International Commodities
Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (April13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (April13) Rs /kg 101.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.3 -7.9 $/tonne 1839.0 -0.7 -0.9 -1.9 -8.5 Rs/kg 407.3 -0.1 -0.4 5.6 -3.8 $/tonne Last 7283.3 Prev. day -0.3 as on 27 May, 2013 WoW -0.4 MoM -7.2 YoY -3.7

London Metal exchange (LME) was closed yesterday on the observance of Spring Bank holiday. In the Indian markets, base metals pack traded on a negative note on the back of rise in worries over global economic growth along with concerns over demand for industrial metal. Further, appreciation in the Indian Rupee added downside pressure on the prices. However, rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments cushioned sharp decline in the prices.

Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metal pack declined around 0.1 percent on the domestic front, on the back of rise in worries over demand for copper after the weak manufacturing data from China and US in the previous week. However, sharp fall in the prices was cushioned on the back of optimistic global market sentiments. The red metal touched an intraday low of Rs 405.9/kg and closed at Rs 407.3/kg yesterdays trading session. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect base metals prices to trade on the lower note on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Further, rise in worries over demand for base metal after the weak manufacturing data from China may add downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, rise in worries over economic growth of the largest consumer of industrial metal, China may keep prices under pressure. However, expectation of favourable economic data from US may prevent sharp fall in the prices. In the Indian markets depreciation in the Indian rupee may cushion sharp downside in the prices. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper April13 MCX Zinc April 13 MCX Lead April 13 MCX Aluminum April13 MCX Nickel April 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for May 28, 2013 Support 405/401 101/100.3 114.8/113.8 100.5/99.8 812/805 Resistance 410/413 102.5/103.3 116.3/117.3 101.8/102.5 827/835

LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (April13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (April13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (April13)

$/tonne

14814.0

-0.8

-0.1

-2.5

-12.6

Rs /kg

818.6

-0.5

-1.1

-1.8

-13.0

$/tonne

2074.0

1.6

3.0

2.1

6.4

Rs /kg

115.6

0.0

3.1

5.4

7.3

$/tonne

1853.5

0.1

0.6

-1.7

-1.3

Rs /kg

101.8

-0.2

0.7

0.8

-3.0

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 24th May 621,175 5,213,275 179,616 1,099,850 232,550 23rd May 623,875 5,221,525 180,024 1,103,225 234,525 Actual Change -2,700 -8,250 -408 -3,375 -1,975 (%) Change -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.8
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| May 28, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y CB Consumer Confidence MPC Member Tucker Speaks Country US US UK Time (IST) 6:30pm 7:30pm 10:30pm Actual Forecast 10.2% 70.7 Previous 9.3% 68.1 Impact Medium High Medium

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