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Weekly Tracker
Contents
Returns Non Agri Commodities Currencies Agri Commodities Non-Agri Commodities Gold Silver Copper Crude Oil
(1.9)
3.0 2.0
0.7 0.6 (0.1) (0.4)
(1.0)
(2.0)
(0.9) (1.9)
*Weekly Performance for June contract, CPO, Cotton & Mentha Oil May Contract
ETF Performance
MCX- Near Month Gold Futures - Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures - $/oz
Outlook
US Dollar Index
Silver
56,000
54,000 52,000 50,000 48,000 46,000 44,000
30
28 26 24
ETF Performance
42,000
22
Outlook
26.0
24.0
81.0 80.0
22.0
79.0
US Dollar Index
Copper
Copper Inventories
7,400
7,200 7,000 6,800
8,200
8,000 7,800 7,600 7,400
568,000
518,000 468,000 418,000 368,000 318,000
Outlook
Crude Oil
Weekly Price Performance
On a weekly basis, Nymex crude oil prices declined around 2.0 percent. On the domestic bourses, prices fell by 0.5 percent and closed at Rs.5,268/bbl on Friday after touching a low of Rs.5167/bbl in the last week. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee restricted further fall in the prices on the MCX. As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories declined less than expected by 0.3 million barrels to 394.60 million barrels for the week ending on 17th May 2013. Gasoline stocks increased by 3.0 million barrels to 220.70 million barrels and whereas distillate stockpiles dropped by 1.1 million barrels to 118.80 million barrels for the last week. Expectations that US Federal Reserve will reduce its bond buying program. Additionally, less than expected decline in US crude oil inventories acted as a negative factor for the crude prices. Further, unfavorable manufacturing data from China and US also exerted downside pressure on the crude oil prices. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned as a result of fall in the jobless claims and rise in core durable goods orders from US coupled with positive economic data from the Euro Zone. Weakness in the DX also prevented fall in the oil prices. For the coming week, we expect crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of expectations that demand from China will slowdown coupled with less than expected decline in US Crude oil inventories. Additionally, rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments will added downside pressure on the oil prices. However, weakness in DX along with forecast fro positive data from US and Euro Zone will cushion sharp fall in the prices. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will prevent sharp fall in prices on the MCX. Nymex Crude Oil: Support: 92.20/90.40 Resistance 96.30/98.70. (CMP:$93.59) Sell MCX Crude Oil June between 5290-5310, SL 5385, Target - 5160. (CMP:Rs 5223)
Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance
5,400 5,300 5,200 5,100 92.0 98.0 96.0 94.0
5,000
4,900 4,800 4,700 90.0 88.0 86.0
388.6 384
381.4
388.9 387.6
Outlook
385.9 382.7
83.0
82.0 81.0 80.0 79.0
$/INR - Spot
56.0 55.5 55.0 54.5
54.0
53.5 53.0
Euro
Euro/$ - Spot
News
EURO/INR - Spot
73.0 72.5 72.0
71.5 71.0 70.5 70.0 69.5 69.0
Outlook
Chana
Outlook
Weekly Strategy
Turmeric
Outlook
Weekly Strategy
Jeera
International Scenario
Outlook
Weekly Levels
Soybean
Outlook
Strategy
Global Scenario
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products from May 1 to 25 fell 5.2% to 1,064,925 tonnes from 1,123,129 tonnes shipped during April 1 to 25. Stocks data from industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed inventory levels at the end of April down 11.3 percent to 1.93 million tonnes against the previous month's 2.17 mn tn. But exports of palm oil products for May 1-10 slid 16.7% to 380,047 tn.
As per the data released by the The Solvent Extractors' Association of India Imports of all vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, by India, declined 29.23% in April 2013, to 654,827 tonnes from 925,334 tonnes in April 2012 due to high stocks lying at the ports. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on May 1 stood at 670,000 tn, the trade body said, off a record of 930,000 tn on March 1. Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports. India's imports of palm oil could rise more than 17% in the year to October 2013 to stand at 9 mn tn, compared with 7.67 mn tn of palm oil in 2011/12 as the edible oil is the cheapest available, despite an import duty. Buy NCDEX Ref Soya Oil June between 698-702, SL -687, Target - 719 / 722. Buy MCX CPO June between 469-471, SL -462, Target - 482 / 484.
Domestic Scenario
Strategy
Sugar
Weekly Price Performance
After gaining over the last three weeks, Sugar prices corrected from higher levels on account of profit booking coupled with weak international markets & sufficient supplies in the domestic markets. Prices had gained due to good demand from the bulk consumers coupled with governments decontrol of the sugar sector. ICE sugar settled 0.3% lower last week on the back of record production in Brazil. However, prices recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings. As on 24th May, 2013, Sugarcane has been planted in 41.24 lakh ha against 45.98 lakh ha last year. Lower acreage has been reported in Maharashtra by 45% (5.11 lakh ha), Karnataka by 10.4% (3.27 lakh ha), India is expected to have produced around 24.52 million tonnes (mt) of sugar during the first six months of the 2012-13 sugar marketing season.
Outlook
Strategy
Kapas/Cotton
Weekly Price Performance
Domestic Kapas as well as cotton prices traded on a mixed note last week as extreme hot weather has supported prices while offloading of stocks from the state reserves pressurized prices. ICE Cotton futures declined sharply and settled 5.69% lower last week on account of worries of a potential slowdown in China coupled with improving weather in the US easing sowing concerns. Cotton Corporation & NAFED are expected to offload 8 lakh bales at lower prices. After an unsuccessful bid to offload of 2.5 lakh bales of cotton in April, the government has now decided to give it a fresh chance. CAB in its latest meet has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales. While Import are estimated 2.5 mn bales. Cotton prices have shown some recovery in the past weeks as unfavorable weather caused delay in plantings. As on 20h May, Cotton planting was 39% completed in the US compared to 59% during the last year and average 52% in the last five years. However, Planting is expected picked up as weather improved in Mississippi Delta and into the Southeast United States . Cotton prices may trade with a mixed note this week on the back of extreme hot weather. Farmers are also holding back their stocks. Any recovery in international markets may also support prices. However, offloading more stocks in the local markets from state reserves may exert pressure on the domestic cotton prices. Buy NCDEX KAPAS April'13 above 1040, SL -1010, Target - 1085 / 1090.
Outlook
Strategy
Thank You!
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