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Increased Refinery Productivity through Online Performance Monitoring

by

Douglas C. White Emerson Process Management MDC Technology Division

Presented at the NPRA 2001 Computer Conference October 1 to 3 Dallas, Texas

Increased Refinery Productivity through Online Performance Monitoring

by Douglas C. White Emerson Process Management MDC Technology Division

Abstract
Refinery staffs have always been concerned with improving the reliability of major equipment and avoiding unscheduled production slowdowns or shutdowns. As refineries get larger, the financial implications of even relatively short production outages are quite high. Reliable and efficient operation of equipment is essential for profitable production. The performance of process equipment, such as compressors, heaters, heat exchangers and columns, often deteriorates with time due to wear and tear and fouling and this deterioration has significant economic implications. In addition, deterioration in process equipment performance in conjunction with traditional condition monitoring is often a precursor to actual equipment failure. Even when process data is monitored online, the actual equipment performance, which is not directly measurable, can be masked by changes in stream compositions, operating conditions, ambient conditions, and other normal process variations. To correct for these variations it is necessary to use rigorous engineering models of the performance and the best possible estimate of the correct values of process input data to the calculation. Fortunately, the continuing advances in computers and communication have dramatically reduced the costs for development and implementation of this rigorous performance monitoring. An attractive current option is to obtain these applications, as a service, over the Internet, vastly reducing the cost and complexity of implementing and maintaining them. The required investment in hardware, operating systems, databases, software licenses, IT staff and third party support is significantly reduced. In this paper we present the results of installation of this technology on processing units including technical details and economic benefits. Important associated benefits include the opportunity to benchmark similar equipment across multiple refinery sites and the ability to use centralized engineering resources to support multiple refineries.

Online Performance Monitoring

Introduction
The refining industry continues to face pressure on operating margins and increased regulatory oversight, particularly in the health, safety, and environmental (HSE) area. To improve competitive operation and profitability and to improve HSE performance, enhanced equipment reliability is critical. Maintaining the efficient operation and performance of refinery equipment is essential to the long term profitability and safe operation of the refinery. In a typical refinery, maintenance expenditures are the largest single cost after feedstock and utilities. However, the cost of poor reliability is even higher with many refineries reporting losses in production capacity of three to seven percent due to unscheduled shutdowns and slowdowns of major process equipment. Another factor that has a significant effect on the profitability of the refinery is the timing of maintenance and cleaning schedules for major items of refinery equipment. This maintenance and/or cleaning is required since most refinery equipment performance degrades with time. Not only does performance degrade between overhauls but also with each successive overhaul the performance gains may be less. The collective software technologies that address this area are known as Asset Management Systems. Asset Management System technologies are designed to ensure that refinery production equipment is maintained at the maximum performance level for minimum cost. Assets in this context refer to all of the physical equipment in the refinery - compressors, pumps, distillation columns, heat exchangers, boilers, etc. There are several approaches to maintenance in the plant. One is to wait until the equipment breaks and then fix it if it is really important. The second, known as preventative maintenance, uses average times to failure for equipment and schedules maintenance before the expected failure time. However, equipment can vary widely in actual performance. Predictive maintenance attempts to find techniques to determine more precisely if equipment is underperforming or about to fail. Predictive analysis maintenance techniques have been demonstrated to save as much as thirty percent of unscheduled maintenance costs while simultaneously improving equipment reliability. We are all aware of the tremendous decrease in the physical size of high performance computing equipment and the increase in communication bandwidth and capabilities. Sensors on equipment are becoming cheaper with enhanced computing and communication capabilities included. With the continuing improvement in computing and communication capabilities, predictive maintenance can be based on actual device performance data, obtained and analyzed in near real time. The overall objective is to catch potential equipment problems early which leads to less expensive repairs and less downtime. Conversely we want to avoid shutting expensive equipment down unnecessarily.

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Online Performance Monitoring The figure following illustrates the concept. We would like to detect anomalies early and then decide what they mean with respect to the equipment. Data from the process and the equipment is validated and brought to performance models. These calculate the performance and correct to standard conditions and with economic information calculate the cost of poor performance. This can be used for predictions of unscheduled removal (or replacement) of part(s), disruption of service, or delays of capacity.
Equipment Diagnostics

Acquire and Validate Data

Process Data Temperature Pressure Flow Load Design Information Maintenance History Operating Mode

Validated Data

Analyze Performance

Standardized Performance

Predict Degraded Operation

Cost/ Benefits for Cleaning Impending Failures

Economics

Take Corrective Action

Proritized Maintenance Work Orders Asset Failure Probability

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Online Performance Monitoring

Model Based Equipment Performance Monitoring and Analysis

Lets assume you are responsible for a major piece of equipment in the plant such as a large heater. Suppose you see efficiency go down and fuel usage go up - what does it mean? Variations in air temperature, the load on the equipment, and the fuel gas composition as well as operating decisions can easily cause the efficiency to vary by 20%. Obviously you need some way to bring the performance to standard conditions that can be compared with historical, design, and clean conditions. In the past, performance has been monitored at the refinery by considering either simple input / output algorithms or by processing data that has first been fitted to a simple correlation based model of the equipment. While both of these methods can produce acceptable results, they still require a significant investment in software and hardware technologies and require skilled technicians to oversee the monitoring infrastructure. Some organizations still continue to retrieve raw refinery data and calculate performance using a homemade spreadsheet and base the timing of maintenance and cleaning schedules on these calculations. Such techniques are hard to maintain long term and are prone to errors. For a true representation of the current operation of any piece of refinery equipment, a model-based performance monitoring system provides greatest accuracy. This technique allows the user to extract or infer information about the machine from the operating data by use of the mathematical representation of the equipment and the calculation engine. Technology Description The figure following shows modern Equipment Performance Monitoring Technology as installed in leading refineries today. Parameters are selected for each of the unit operations being monitored, which have an engineering meaning: for example, the overall heat transfer coefficient (UA value) for a heat exchanger, or the isotropic efficiency for a compressor stage. Each of these can be expected to respond to fouling in the unit; in both the above cases by decreasing in magnitude with time.

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Online Performance Monitoring

Model Updating Validated Measurements Data Validation Conditioned Data Input Conditioning Plant Data

Model Parameters

Remote Data Transfer

Base Case Model

Base Point & Constraint Approaches

Inferred KPI Generation & Measurements Degradation & Operator Information KPIs & Degradation Indicators

Data Server (Data Archive, Performance Calcs, Scheduled Reports)

Plant I/O Analog Measurements and Digital Signals

The rate at which the parameters are recalculated should be chosen to reflect the anticipated decay in their value. If the frequency is set too high, then there will be no significant change from one estimate to the next, if it is too low then it is possible to miss a critical shift. With heat exchangers the rate of fouling is obviously dependent on the fluid being processed, so that the appropriate update may differ from one exchanger to another. A standard recommendation would be to recalculate the fouling indicators two or three times per day. This is a higher frequency than any expected change; however, it is necessary for the statistical verification that follows. The value that is used for prediction is more likely to be a daily or weekly moving average. Other types of equipment have very different rates of change: for some compressors and reactors may vary over many months, while an off-gas CV may change from minute to minute. It is necessary to have some idea of the range that the parameter will assume between its clean (or design) state and a fully-fouled condition. A usable definition of fullyfouled is when the condition of the unit significantly influences the economics of the process.

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Online Performance Monitoring

It is important to establish that the chosen parameter is a good indicator of performance; i.e. that it has the following properties: The value should not change dramatically between individual evaluations. It would be expected to fluctuate about a mean value over a period of, say, one week; but these excursions should be small compared with the absolute value, in particular, with the expected change between the clean and fully-fouled conditions. The changes in mean value over suitable periods should be monotonic, and in the anticipated direction. This substantiates the importance of selecting a meaningful parameter. The average values of the parameters should be plotted against time. The value of the indicator is reflected in how useable this curve is: The curve should be decreasing, continuous and smooth. It should be possible to extrapolate the curve meaningfully, i.e. without a change in direction in the extrapolated function.

It is not expected that performance deterioration will be uniform. Indeed, the rate of fouling often increases with the degree of fouling. The extrapolation should be compared with the actual performance, so that fouling rules can be established. In summary, performance monitoring involves identifying the following elements: A list of measured values from the plant that are to be used to update model parameters. These values should represent data that could be used as inputs to the model and data that corresponds to calculated results of a corresponding model run. A list of parameters that are to be updated. The parameters should have an effect on the chosen model calculated results. A list (subset) of the measurement data to which offsets are to be applied.

Data Conditioning Model output accuracy is obviously dependent on the quality of the data used for the calculations. The raw data used for the calculations undergoes validation checks to ensure its consistency and integrity. These checks are performed prior to the data reconciliation. Gross error detection is performed initially and obviously incorrect readings are excluded. For excluded data, typical or recent average values can be used. If the data is OK, a series of calculations are performed for data suitability within the system and the data is scaled for unit conversion between the core model and results CC-01-142 Page 6

Online Performance Monitoring presentation. If an error is detected within the data, the data can be automatically repaired depending on the data error present. Data reconciliation calculates a consistent and reliable set of reconciled values that force a heat and material balance in the model and minimize the sum of the difference between measured and reconciled values, weighted by meter accuracy. Use of a predictive model The use of a predictive model has several advantages over a model that simply generates performance indicators. The primary advantage is that the predictive model can be exercised over a different range to the actual refinery operation with confidence that the predictions are what the actual equipment would do, if it were under new operating conditions. Secondly the predictive model will inherently be a more detailed representation than a simple performance indicator model, but require less input to generate results. Finally, a predictive model can be used in multiple forms for the same problem to generate comparative results simultaneously. This is possible because the predictive model has tuning parameters that allow it to account for equipment degradation (see below). In effect, these tuning parameters can be used to generate copies of the model in different scenarios. Some systems calculate this functionality of predictive models to allow simultaneous generation of the machine operation in both clean (design) and current modes. However, predictive models can be used in this way for a variety of other calculations (e.g. run at worst condition, run todays conditions at last months degradation, etc.) Model Tuning In an ideal world, equipment would perform as delivered until it was decommissioned. However, in the real world performance is not so uniform, and equipment is subject to degraded performance from a variety of causes. In addition, remedial action is often undertaken to reverse (or at least reduce) the effects of the degradation. From a mathematical model perspective, the net effect is that the model predictions start to drift away from the real life behavior, since the model still thinks the equipment is at design. To counter this effect, the application of statistical and optimization techniques to the mathematical model tune it against the observed behavior. Effectively these techniques adjust the mathematical model, using tuning parameters, to ensure the mathematical predictions match the observed behavior. There are several difficulties associated with model tuning: the tuning relies on the live data being representative, and as such is subject to errors in this live data the procedure is somewhat computationally expensive since it requires the use of multi-variable optimization algorithms

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Online Performance Monitoring The best approach minimizes the effect of both of these issues by tuning the model over a range of operation, rather than simply the current values. Effectively the equipment model is tuned over its recent history of operation, rather than to a spot value. This history approach allows data outliers to be accounted for within the algorithm, and also reduces the overall computational time required to solve the problem. Hence the equipment is tuned over an active range to correspond to its operation over that active range. The historized tuning process allows behavior over the range of operation to be modified, rather than simply adjusting a spot value. In effect the whole machine is tuned (over the operating range), rather than just one instance of its operation. An important result of implementing the model tuning is the availability of the parameters that are used to update the model. These are the backbone of the performance monitoring function since monitoring of these factors allows the plant engineers to follow the behavior of equipment as it changes (degrades) and determine when appropriate maintenance action needs to be taken. In addition to the updated parameters, certain other aspects of performance monitoring are implemented by model configurations. It is possible to run the model with design values for the parameters simultaneously with the current values. Comparison gives the effect of the equipment degradation through difference in results and economic functions. Performance monitoring also allows the generation of Key Performance Indicators that can be chosen to represent important aspects of the equipment operation. Historical Data Storage and Data Communication Historical data gathered from the refinery for each item of equipment to be monitored can be collected from a variety of sources, and indeed from more than one source for a piece of equipment. Problem Identification As mentioned initially, the objective for performance monitoring is to detect problems in equipment before they become serious. This is done by the following: Out of normal operating range data is detected and tabulated. Specific sets of process operating conditions likely to indicate pending faults are configured, monitored and alarmed. Statistical analysis of operating data can be performed to detect sudden changes in performance

Practical Considerations When using parameter updating (tuning) for a model it is important to have a large enough history of results. There are two reasons for this requirement. Firstly, it is impossible to update a performance curve, such as the efficiency / flow curve on a compressor, from a small clump of data from the same operating region. Depending on the technique, the best that can happen is that the curve will move up or CC-01-142 Page 8

Online Performance Monitoring down, the worst that can happen is that the curve becomes totally wrong towards the extremes. Secondly, it is impossible to calculate a goodness-of-fit parameter. This makes determination of faulty measurements difficult. When these problems are anticipated, it is better to adopt a strategy where an updated correction factor is applied to the model curve instead of updating the performance curve itself. It should be noted that certain fitting procedures are dependent on the available measurement data, and failing minimum requirements, updating or reconciliation cannot be performed. For example, reconciliation on a compressor cannot be performed unless an estimate of the compressor power is known. Without a power measurement there is no unique solution. It is possible to fit the compressor to a variety of biased measurements and retain the existing tuning parameters the biases simply serve to shift the total relationship up or down. The power measurement ties the various solutions of the efficiency / head calculations to a single power number. In essence, it occupies the remaining degree of freedom of the compressor calculations. Using a performance monitoring system based on rigorous model-based technology provides highly accurate information to users, reducing the effect of instrument noise and bad data on the accuracy of the data used in the calculations.

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Online Performance Monitoring

Internet Based Equipment Performance Monitoring

Using a structured approach to performance monitoring, with model-based technology, improves decision-making based on derived performance and economic data, and reduces uncertainty in maintenance scheduling. Combining the use of this technology with the latest software delivery of applications through the Internet provides an economically attractive method to implement the technology. Recently the increase in the availability of Application Service Providers (ASP's) has transformed many traditional custom-coded applications or off-the-shelf software products into net-centric applications. Companies no longer pay large upfront license fees to install a complex application. Instead customers lease the application or service, usually for a monthly fee, that includes service support. The end client no longer owns the application and the hardware required or the responsibilities and costs associated with initial and ongoing maintenance. The client, through a standard Internet browser, accesses remote, centralized computer servers hosting the application. The client only manages the results from the application locally. The figure below illustrates the procedure for performance monitoring.
Process Data Requirements

Download Unique Template

The Plant
Plant Data Historian

Customer Database

Template Populated with Process Data

Customer

Access Design Data Sheet

PrePre - process Data (Validate)

Store Results

Performance Calculator

Validate Results

Notify Customer of Com pletion

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Online Performance Monitoring Data is sent from the site to a central processing point where the data is cleansed and the models are maintained. Current model tuning parameters and equipment performance is calculated. The results are then stored in a historical database for retrieval via a browser based interface. The growing convergence of software and IT infrastructure towards an Internet-based or centrally focused environment has enabled information on refinery equipment performance to be pushed direct to the desktop for monitoring and analysis. This kind of system provides all the benefits of a traditional system but, in addition, will enable a refinery to reduce costs further by following a similar business model to an ASP eliminating the need to purchase hardware and software. A fully outsourced performance monitoring solution allows customers to access equipment performance results at anytime from anywhere in the world as shown in the figure below. Large corporations with many geographically dispersed manufacturing operations can aggregate online resources over the Internet and realize significant benefits including sharing of information. Customers can assess the effect the performance of refinery equipment is having on the efficiency of the refinery in terms of throughput, downtime, stability etc. It may also show the cost of the degradation in performance in monetary terms. Performance monitoring enables users to make essential decisions based on hard facts. Maintenance schedules can be optimized to extend run times and plan activities accurately.

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Online Performance Monitoring

Example
In the graphs and data below, we see an example of the use of this technology on a large compressor. The compressor processes a gas stream that varies substantially in composition and throughput. Decisions on the relative performance of the machine are very difficult without use of an online model that brings operation back to standard conditions. The calculation of performance, in this case compressor efficiency, allowed determination that the compressor was fouled in May 2000. The compressor was shutdown and cleaned. The improvement in performance is clear. Also clear is the fouling of the compressor over the next year. Calculation of the economic penalty for this reduced performance shows the surprisingly high cost of the fouling.

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Online Performance Monitoring

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Online Performance Monitoring

Deviation From Design

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Online Performance Monitoring

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Online Performance Monitoring

Benefits
Benefits from implementation of the asset management technology include: Improved refinery uptime Earlier detection of potential abnormal situations in the refinery Reduced loss and faster recovery from process upsets Enhanced productivity with troubleshooting tasks Increased safety for personnel and refinery

The need for on-line performance monitoring is usually identified following some form of catastrophic refinery failure, which would have been predicted in advance if the state of the equipment had been more closely monitored. Obviously, the simplest criterion of success for the online, model-based performance monitor is that there should be no recurrence of the shutdown events. The figure below shows the trended degradation of a unit versus the fixed maintenance cost for the unit from being brought online to its shutdown and maintenance. The negative sloped line is the total (fixed) cost of the maintenance for the equipment spread over each day (cost per day online). Obviously the longer the equipment remains in service the more cost effective it is in terms of maintenance cost (i.e. the fixed cost divided by the number of days online). To counter this, the positive line is the degradation cost of the equipment (compared to design or day zero conditions) that will increase as the unit deteriorates. A composite of these two cost curves shows a period when the unit reaches its most cost effective (the composite curve minimum). After this time the unit starts to become less (cost) effective and maintenance could be economically justified. The actual maintenance is also being subject to availability and process engineering judgment. The performance monitoring aspects of this example would allow each unit to be monitored separately, and the exact time of maintenance identified. Since each unit may degrade differently, (the positive sloped line will have different gradients, maintenance engineers can make quantitative decisions rather than just use only qualitative judgment. In addition, the system is regularly updated to reflect changes in degradation that may be the result of operational changes, maintenance of related equipment, etc. In this manner, the maintenance schedule is updated based on the actual equipment behavior, rather than a rule of thumb.

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Online Performance Monitoring

Unit Degradation

Maintenance Cost (spread over time)

Time Maintenance Cost Degradation Cost Composite Cost

However, for the many other potential uses of the model it is necessary only that it follows the true performance of the process closely all of the time. A Performance Monitor can be regarded as successful when: It is using a good indicator, as defined above, i.e. it follows the true performance of the equipment The unit itself exhibits deterioration to a significant extent during the normal run time of the process between major maintenance shutdowns, so that the system is providing worthwhile advice. The change in performance can be communicated to the higher level functions, such as online optimization or planning, in a form that causes them to take appropriate actions. The deterioration curve, and its associated extrapolation rules, has been shown to predict the behavior of the equipment accurately.

Customers can assess the effect the performance of refinery equipment is having on the efficiency of the refinery in terms of throughput, downtime, stability etc. It may also show the cost of the degradation in performance in monetary terms. Performance monitoring enables users to make essential decisions based on hard facts. Maintenance schedules can be optimized to extend run times and plan activities accurately. Efficient management of refinery assets reduces unplanned equipment breakdowns, improves shutdown efficiency and optimizes the maintenance budget. Translating this into economic factors it is expected that full implementation of the technology would result in an increase in refinery production from existing equipment of between two and five percent. A reduction in unplanned maintenance costs of ten to thirty percent is also expected.

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Online Performance Monitoring Benchmarking As stated elsewhere, benchmarking is a technique for achieving continuous improvement by comparing multiple installations of similar equipment. It allows us to analyze and improve key processes, eliminate waste, improve performance, and profitability. Its strength is that it allows analytical decisions based on facts. The Benchmark is used to provide the common denominator: the measured performance of each real unit is compared with how the Ideal would behave under the same conditions. It allows us to leverage scarce engineering resources across multiple sites and to identify best practices and propagate these across multiple installations. Corporations can compare performance of different assets at the same sit or at different sites on a continuous basis. Measurement is the key knowing where we are today and where we need to be tomorrow. Benchmarking compares individual processes and functions, to show what the best of the best are doing. Clearly we need relative performance indicators to effectively compare equipment across sites. The reliable way to do this is to use a model that provides an independent indicator and a degree of reconciliation for data quality. For example, we can use a model to provide benchmark performance for any type of feedstock, any likely throughput or other variable. The next requirement is a way to easily get the information to the desktop in a format that the users can easily access. The figure below illustrates this concept. Use of Internet based performance monitoring obviously facilitates the comparison.

Existing Performance Database Customer Performance Comparison

COMPARISON ENGINE

Internet Performance Monitoring

Internet Performance Monitoring

Internet Performance Monitoring

INTERNET ZONE

REAL-TIME DATABASE

RTD

RTD

EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE

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Online Performance Monitoring

Future Developments
Performance monitoring and predictive maintenance techniques are still in their relative infancy. One of the most interesting development areas includes techniques for visualizing the large quantities of data produced by modern smart instrumentation. An associated development area is advanced statistical techniques to extract information from the data. A promising statistical approach is the use of "classification and regression trees" to actually identify conditions leading to problems in the plant.

Conclusion
Implementing the approach of Internet-based performance monitoring delivers numerous business and financial benefits over alternative methods of monitoring refinery equipment. As previously explained the use of rigorous model-based technology significantly contributes to the highly accurate results presented to the enduser. Equipment performance monitoring through the Internet can significantly reduce implementation and maintenance costs by offloading onsite administration costs while simultaneously providing valuable online tools for complex technical reporting and analysis. Refinery personnel in remote locations will be able to gain access to expertise that normally would not be available allowing the experts to troubleshoot problems remotely and avoid unnecessary visits to site. This technology has already been applied to compressors, pumps, gas turbines, and other major processing equipment to give operators a more accurate picture of the condition of each machine. Information presented through the Internet allows informed up-to-date decisions on asset operation, improved availability and production capacity and minimizes unscheduled equipment downtime The Internet is changing company management and operations in ways that were unlikely a few years ago. Organizations that take advantage of this latest technology can expect to gain significant competitive advantages. Potential savings could exceed several million dollars per year in increased production by improving equipment reliability and efficiency while simultaneously reducing maintenance costs. Acknowledgement e-fficiency is the internet based equipment performance monitoring technology offered by MDC Technology, a subsidiary of Emerson Process Management. More information on the technology is available at www.e-fficiency.com. This paper is partially based on an earlier paper - Equipment Performance Monitoring Over the Internet presented at ISA2001.

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