Sustainable Development and Planning V

Sustainable Development and Planning V
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FIFTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND PLANNING
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND PLANNING V

CONFERENCE CHAIRMEN
C.A. Brebbia Wessex Institute of Technology, UK E. Beriatos University of Thessaly, Greece
INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY COMMITTEE

G. Badalians Gholikandi R. Brandtweiner K. Galal Ahmed H. Goeritz H. Gulinck J.L. Miralles i Garcia F. Russo M. Yokota
Organised by Wessex Institute of Technology, UK Sponsored by WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment
WIT Transactions
Transactions Editor
Carlos Brebbia Wessex Institute of Technology Ashurst Lodge, Ashurst Southampton SO40 7AA, UK Email: carlos@wessex.ac.uk
Editorial Board
B Abersek University of Maribor, Slovenia Y N Abousleiman University of Oklahoma,
USA
G Belingardi Politecnico di Torino, Italy R Belmans Katholieke Universiteit Leuven,

Belgium
P L Aguilar University of Extremadura, Spain K S Al Jabri Sultan Qaboos University, Oman E Alarcon Universidad Politecnica de Madrid,
Spain
C D Bertram The University of New South

Wales, Australia
D E Beskos University of Patras, Greece S K Bhattacharyya Indian Institute of

Technology, India
A Aldama IMTA, Mexico C Alessandri Universita di Ferrara, Italy D Almorza Gomar University of Cadiz,
Spain
E Blums Latvian Academy of Sciences, Latvia J Boarder Cartref Consulting Systems, UK B Bobee Institut National de la Recherche
Scientifique, Canada
B Alzahabi Kettering University, USA J A C Ambrosio IDMEC, Portugal A M Amer Cairo University, Egypt S A Anagnostopoulos University of Patras,
Greece
M Andretta Montecatini, Italy E Angelino A.R.P.A. Lombardia, Italy H Antes Technische Universitat Braunschweig,
Germany
H Boileau ESIGEC, France J J Bommer Imperial College London, UK M Bonnet Ecole Polytechnique, France C A Borrego University of Aveiro, Portugal A R Bretones University of Granada, Spain J A Bryant University of Exeter, UK F-G Buchholz Universitat Gesanthochschule
Paderborn, Germany Australia, Australia
M A Atherton South Bank University, UK A G Atkins University of Reading, UK D Aubry Ecole Centrale de Paris, France H Azegami Toyohashi University of
Technology, Japan
M B Bush The University of Western F Butera Politecnico di Milano, Italy J Byrne University of Portsmouth, UK W Cantwell Liverpool University, UK D J Cartwright Bucknell University, USA P G Carydis National Technical University of
Athens, Greece
A F M Azevedo University of Porto, Portugal J Baish Bucknell University, USA J M Baldasano Universitat Politecnica de
Catalunya, Spain J G Bartzis Institute of Nuclear Technology, Greece A Bejan Duke University, USA M P Bekakos Democritus University of Thrace, Greece
J J Casares Long Universidad de Santiago de

Compostela, Spain
M A Celia Princeton University, USA A Chakrabarti Indian Institute of Science,

India
A H-D Cheng University of Mississippi, USA
J Chilton University of Lincoln, UK C-L Chiu University of Pittsburgh, USA H Choi Kangnung National University, Korea A Cieslak Technical University of Lodz,
Poland
J P du Plessis University of Stellenbosch,

South Africa
R Duffell University of Hertfordshire, UK A Ebel University of Cologne, Germany E E Edoutos Democritus University of
Thrace, Greece
S Clement Transport System Centre, Australia M W Collins Brunel University, UK J J Connor Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, USA
M C Constantinou State University of New

York at Buffalo, USA
D E Cormack University of Toronto, Canada M Costantino Royal Bank of Scotland, UK D F Cutler Royal Botanic Gardens, UK W Czyczula Krakow University of
Technology, Poland Coimbra, Portugal
M da Conceicao Cunha University of L Dvid Kroly Rbert College, Hungary A Davies University of Hertfordshire, UK M Davis Temple University, USA A B de Almeida Instituto Superior Tecnico,
Portugal
G K Egan Monash University, Australia K M Elawadly Alexandria University, Egypt K-H Elmer Universitat Hannover, Germany D Elms University of Canterbury, New Zealand M E M El-Sayed Kettering University, USA D M Elsom Oxford Brookes University, UK F Erdogan Lehigh University, USA F P Escrig University of Seville, Spain D J Evans Nottingham Trent University, UK J W Everett Rowan University, USA M Faghri University of Rhode Island, USA R A Falconer Cardiff University, UK M N Fardis University of Patras, Greece P Fedelinski Silesian Technical University,
Poland USA
H J S Fernando Arizona State University, S Finger Carnegie Mellon University, USA J I Frankel University of Tennessee, USA D M Fraser University of Cape Town, South
Africa
E R de Arantes e Oliveira Instituto Superior

Tecnico, Portugal L De Biase University of Milan, Italy R de Borst Delft University of Technology, Netherlands G De Mey University of Ghent, Belgium A De Montis Universita di Cagliari, Italy A De Naeyer Universiteit Ghent, Belgium W P De Wilde Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium L Debnath University of Texas-Pan American, USA N J Dedios Mimbela Universidad de Cordoba, Spain G Degrande Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium S del Giudice University of Udine, Italy G Deplano Universita di Cagliari, Italy I Doltsinis University of Stuttgart, Germany M Domaszewski Universite de Technologie de Belfort-Montbeliard, France J Dominguez University of Seville, Spain K Dorow Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, USA W Dover University College London, UK C Dowlen South Bank University, UK
M J Fritzler University of Calgary, Canada U Gabbert Otto-von-Guericke Universitat

Magdeburg, Germany
G Gambolati Universita di Padova, Italy C J Gantes National Technical University of

Athens, Greece
L Gaul Universitat Stuttgart, Germany A Genco University of Palermo, Italy N Georgantzis Universitat Jaume I, Spain P Giudici Universita di Pavia, Italy F Gomez Universidad Politecnica de Valencia,
Spain
R Gomez Martin University of Granada,

Spain
D Goulias University of Maryland, USA K G Goulias Pennsylvania State University,

USA
F Grandori Politecnico di Milano, Italy W E Grant Texas A & M University,

USA
S Grilli University of Rhode Island, USA
R H J Grimshaw Loughborough University,

UK
K L Katsifarakis Aristotle University of

Thessaloniki, Greece
D Gross Technische Hochschule Darmstadt,

Germany
J T Katsikadelis National Technical

University of Athens, Greece
R Grundmann Technische Universitat

Dresden, Germany
E Kausel Massachusetts Institute of

Technology, USA
A Gualtierotti IDHEAP, Switzerland R C Gupta National University of Singapore,
H Kawashima The University of Tokyo,

Japan USA
Singapore J M Hale University of Newcastle, UK K Hameyer Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium C Hanke Danish Technical University, Denmark K Hayami University of Toyko, Japan Y Hayashi Nagoya University, Japan L Haydock Newage International Limited, UK A H Hendrickx Free University of Brussels, Belgium C Herman John Hopkins University, USA I Hideaki Nagoya University, Japan D A Hills University of Oxford, UK W F Huebner Southwest Research Institute, USA J A C Humphrey Bucknell University, USA M Y Hussaini Florida State University, USA W Hutchinson Edith Cowan University, Australia T H Hyde University of Nottingham, UK M Iguchi Science University of Tokyo, Japan D B Ingham University of Leeds, UK L Int Panis VITO Expertisecentrum IMS, Belgium N Ishikawa National Defence Academy, Japan J Jaafar UiTm, Malaysia W Jager Technical University of Dresden, Germany Y Jaluria Rutgers University, USA C M Jefferson University of the West of England, UK P R Johnston Griffith University, Australia D R H Jones University of Cambridge, UK N Jones University of Liverpool, UK D Kaliampakos National Technical University of Athens, Greece N Kamiya Nagoya University, Japan D L Karabalis University of Patras, Greece M Karlsson Linkoping University, Sweden T Katayama Doshisha University, Japan
B A Kazimee Washington State University, S Kim University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA D Kirkland Nicholas Grimshaw & Partners
Ltd, UK
E Kita Nagoya University, Japan A S Kobayashi University of Washington,

USA
T Kobayashi University of Tokyo, Japan D Koga Saga University, Japan S Kotake University of Tokyo, Japan A N Kounadis National Technical University
of Athens, Greece Germany
W B Kratzig Ruhr Universitat Bochum, T Krauthammer Penn State University, USA C-H Lai University of Greenwich, UK M Langseth Norwegian University of Science
and Technology, Norway Denmark
B S Larsen Technical University of Denmark, F Lattarulo Politecnico di Bari, Italy A Lebedev Moscow State University, Russia L J Leon University of Montreal, Canada D Lewis Mississippi State University, USA S lghobashi University of California Irvine,
USA
K-C Lin University of New Brunswick,

Canada
A A Liolios Democritus University of Thrace,

Greece
S Lomov Katholieke Universiteit Leuven,

Belgium
J W S Longhurst University of the West of

England, UK Zealand
G Loo The University of Auckland, New J Lourenco Universidade do Minho, Portugal J E Luco University of California at San
Diego, USA
H Lui State Seismological Bureau Harbin,

China
C J Lumsden University of Toronto, Canada L Lundqvist Division of Transport and
P ODonoghue University College Dublin,

Ireland
Location Analysis, Sweden T Lyons Murdoch University, Australia Y-W Mai University of Sydney, Australia M Majowiecki University of Bologna, Italy D Malerba Universit degli Studi di Bari, Italy G Manara University of Pisa, Italy B N Mandal Indian Statistical Institute, India Mander University of Tartu, Estonia H A Mang Technische Universitat Wien, Austria G D Manolis Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece W J Mansur COPPE/UFRJ, Brazil N Marchettini University of Siena, Italy J D M Marsh Griffith University, Australia J F Martin-Duque Universidad Complutense, Spain T Matsui Nagoya University, Japan G Mattrisch DaimlerChrysler AG, Germany F M Mazzolani University of Naples Federico II, Italy K McManis University of New Orleans, USA A C Mendes Universidade de Beira Interior, Portugal R A Meric Research Institute for Basic Sciences, Turkey J Mikielewicz Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland N Milic-Frayling Microsoft Research Ltd, UK R A W Mines University of Liverpool, UK C A Mitchell University of Sydney, Australia K Miura Kajima Corporation, Japan A Miyamoto Yamaguchi University, Japan T Miyoshi Kobe University, Japan G Molinari University of Genoa, Italy T B Moodie University of Alberta, Canada D B Murray Trinity College Dublin, Ireland G Nakhaeizadeh DaimlerChrysler AG, Germany M B Neace Mercer University, USA D Necsulescu University of Ottawa, Canada F Neumann University of Vienna, Austria S-I Nishida Saga University, Japan H Nisitani Kyushu Sangyo University, Japan B Notaros University of Massachusetts, USA
R O ONeill Oak Ridge National Laboratory,

USA
M Ohkusu Kyushu University, Japan G Oliveto Universit di Catania, Italy R Olsen Camp Dresser & McKee Inc., USA E Oate Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya,
Spain
K Onishi Ibaraki University, Japan P H Oosthuizen Queens University, Canada E L Ortiz Imperial College London, UK E Outa Waseda University, Japan A S Papageorgiou Rensselaer Polytechnic
Institute, USA
J Park Seoul National University, Korea G Passerini Universita delle Marche, Italy B C Patten University of Georgia, USA G Pelosi University of Florence, Italy G G Penelis Aristotle University of
Thessaloniki, Greece
W Perrie Bedford Institute of Oceanography,

Canada
R Pietrabissa Politecnico di Milano, Italy H Pina Instituto Superior Tecnico, Portugal M F Platzer Naval Postgraduate School, USA D Poljak University of Split, Croatia V Popov Wessex Institute of Technology, UK H Power University of Nottingham, UK D Prandle Proudman Oceanographic
Laboratory, UK
M Predeleanu University Paris VI, France M R I Purvis University of Portsmouth, UK I S Putra Institute of Technology Bandung,
Indonesia
Y A Pykh Russian Academy of Sciences,

Russia
F Rachidi EMC Group, Switzerland M Rahman Dalhousie University, Canada K R Rajagopal Texas A & M University, USA T Rang Tallinn Technical University, Estonia J Rao Case Western Reserve University, USA A M Reinhorn State University of New York
at Buffalo, USA
A D Rey McGill University, Canada D N Riahi University of Illinois at UrbanaChampaign, USA
B Ribas Spanish National Centre for
Environmental Health, Spain K Richter Graz University of Technology, Austria S Rinaldi Politecnico di Milano, Italy F Robuste Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Spain J Roddick Flinders University, Australia A C Rodrigues Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal F Rodrigues Poly Institute of Porto, Portugal C W Roeder University of Washington, USA J M Roesset Texas A & M University, USA W Roetzel Universitaet der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Germany V Roje University of Split, Croatia R Rosset Laboratoire dAerologie, France J L Rubio Centro de Investigaciones sobre Desertificacion, Spain T J Rudolphi Iowa State University, USA S Russenchuck Magnet Group, Switzerland H Ryssel Fraunhofer Institut Integrierte Schaltungen, Germany S G Saad American University in Cairo, Egypt M Saiidi University of Nevada-Reno, USA R San Jose Technical University of Madrid, Spain F J Sanchez-Sesma Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo, Mexico B Sarler Nova Gorica Polytechnic, Slovenia S A Savidis Technische Universitat Berlin, Germany A Savini Universita de Pavia, Italy G Schmid Ruhr-Universitat Bochum, Germany R Schmidt RWTH Aachen, Germany B Scholtes Universitaet of Kassel, Germany W Schreiber University of Alabama, USA A P S Selvadurai McGill University, Canada J J Sendra University of Seville, Spain J J Sharp Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada Q Shen Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA X Shixiong Fudan University, China G C Sih Lehigh University, USA L C Simoes University of Coimbra, Portugal A C Singhal Arizona State University, USA P Skerget University of Maribor, Slovenia
J Sladek Slovak Academy of Sciences,

Slovakia
V Sladek Slovak Academy of Sciences,

Slovakia
A C M Sousa University of New Brunswick,

Canada
H Sozer Illinois Institute of Technology, USA D B Spalding CHAM, UK P D Spanos Rice University, USA T Speck Albert-Ludwigs-Universitaet Freiburg,
Germany
C C Spyrakos National Technical University

of Athens, Greece Russia
I V Stangeeva St Petersburg University, J Stasiek Technical University of Gdansk,

Poland
G E Swaters University of Alberta, Canada S Syngellakis University of Southampton, UK J Szmyd University of Mining and Metallurgy,
Poland
S T Tadano Hokkaido University, Japan H Takemiya Okayama University, Japan I Takewaki Kyoto University, Japan C-L Tan Carleton University, Canada E Taniguchi Kyoto University, Japan S Tanimura Aichi University of Technology,
Japan USA
J L Tassoulas University of Texas at Austin, M A P Taylor University of South Australia,

Australia
A Terranova Politecnico di Milano, Italy A G Tijhuis Technische Universiteit

Eindhoven, Netherlands
T Tirabassi Institute FISBAT-CNR, Italy S Tkachenko Otto-von-Guericke-University,

Germany
N Tosaka Nihon University, Japan T Tran-Cong University of Southern

Queensland, Australia
R Tremblay Ecole Polytechnique, Canada I Tsukrov University of New Hampshire, USA R Turra CINECA Interuniversity Computing
Centre, Italy Russia
S G Tushinski Moscow State University, J-L Uso Universitat Jaume I, Spain E Van den Bulck Katholieke Universiteit
Leuven, Belgium
D Van den Poel Ghent University, Belgium R van der Heijden Radboud University,
Netherlands
R van Duin Delft University of Technology,

Netherlands
A Yeh University of Hong Kong, China J Yoon Old Dominion University, USA K Yoshizato Hiroshima University, Japan T X Yu Hong Kong University of Science &
Technology, Hong Kong
P Vas University of Aberdeen, UK R Verhoeven Ghent University, Belgium A Viguri Universitat Jaume I, Spain Y Villacampa Esteve Universidad de
Alicante, Spain
M Zador Technical University of Budapest,

Hungary
K Zakrzewski Politechnika Lodzka, Poland M Zamir University of Western Ontario,

Canada
F F V Vincent University of Bath, UK S Walker Imperial College, UK G Walters University of Exeter, UK B Weiss University of Vienna, Austria H Westphal University of Magdeburg,
Germany
R Zarnic University of Ljubljana, Slovenia G Zharkova Institute of Theoretical and

Applied Mechanics, Russia
N Zhong Maebashi Institute of Technology,

Japan
H G Zimmermann Siemens AG, Germany
J R Whiteman Brunel University, UK Z-Y Yan Peking University, China S Yanniotis Agricultural University of Athens,
Greece
EDITORS
C.A. Brebbia Wessex Institute of Technology, UK E. Beriatos University of Thessaly, Greece
Editors: C.A. Brebbia Wessex Institute of Technology, UK E. Beriatos University of Thessaly, Greece
Published by WIT Press Ashurst Lodge, Ashurst, Southampton, SO40 7AA, UK Tel: 44 (0) 238 029 3223; Fax: 44 (0) 238 029 2853 E-Mail: witpress@witpress.com http://www.witpress.com For USA, Canada and Mexico Computational Mechanics Inc 25 Bridge Street, Billerica, MA 01821, USA Tel: 978 667 5841; Fax: 978 667 7582 E-Mail: info@compmech.com http://www.witpress.com British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A Catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN: 978-1-84564-544-1 ISSN: 1746-448X (print) ISSN: 1743-3541 (on-line) The texts of the papers in this volume were set individually by the authors or under their supervision. Only minor corrections to the text may have been carried out by the publisher. No responsibility is assumed by the Publisher, the Editors and Authors for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions or ideas contained in the material herein. WIT Press 2011 Printed in Great Britain by Martins the Printer. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the Publisher.
PREFACE
This book contains most of the edited contributions presented at the 5th International Conference on Sustainable Development and Planning, held at the Wessex Institute of Technology campus in the New Forest, UK. The meeting built upon a series started in 2003 in Skiathos, Greece and evolved into another three conferences in Bologna (2005), the Algarve (2007) and Cyprus (2009). The adopted model of 20th century economic development based on increased urbanization, deforestation, predominance of private car against public transport, unplanned tourism and industrial development, uneven consumption of water and goods between different regions, led to a dramatic environmental and ecological degradation of the planet. A major impact of human intervention is climate change which is not just of scientific interest but it is a reality felt every day by every citizen in every country of the world. We are living in an era of global warming and the symptoms are visible, affecting all human activities. In this context there is an urgent need for the necessary adjustments for survival in this transition period until a new ecological balance is established, much different from the previous one, which will not only affect the biosphere but also the whole socioeconomic structure. Policies for natural resources, agricultural production, environmental protection, urban development and management of natural and cultural heritage must reconsider their priorities in this new context taking into account scientific progress and technological advances. Consequently, spatial planning as a catalyst for the integration of all sectoral policies is the prerequisite for the sustainable development at any geographical level: local, regional, national, global. There is a need to change the existing models of consumption and production as well as those of geographical mobility towards a new direction where the Eco-nomy and the Eco-logy will stop to be in parallel courses but will combine and act together since their ultimate goal remains the same: the achievement of sustainable and livable environments.
The conference brought together scientist and other stakeholders from all over the world to discuss the latest advances in this field. The editors are grateful to all the authors for their excellent papers and especially to the members of the International Scientific Advisory Committee, and other colleagues, who have helped to review the papers, thereby ensuring the quality of this volume. The Editors, New Forest, 2011
Contents
Section 1: Regional planning Maritime and coastal spatial planning: the case of Greece and the Mediterranean E. Beriatos & M. Papageorgiou .......................................................................... 3 Limits and possibilities for the promotion of sustainable development: the case of Northwest Region Fluminense D. C. Vivas Neto & E. A. Nascimento................................................................ 19 Abu Dhabi efforts in facing global warming challenges through urban planning M. Alameri & G. Wagle..................................................................................... 29 Primary sector waste indicators for regional planning E. Cifrian, L. Prez, E. Dosal, J. Viguri & A. Andrs ....................................... 39 Promoting sustainable development in the minerals industry: the phosphate project in Saudi Arabia M. Aldagheiri..................................................................................................... 51 Towards a sustainable system: application of temporal analysis on flood risk management Z. Alsaqqaf & H. Zhang..................................................................................... 59 Section 2: City planning The small world of stakeholder groups: cascading concepts for urban change M. Ganis, J. Minnery & D. Mateo-Babiano ...................................................... 71 The strength of the urban form I. Giovagnorio ................................................................................................... 85
Future projects on water resources for a sustainable urban development: a case study of Surat city of India K. A. Chauhan, J. P. Shah, A. M. Pingle & A. K. Chauhan............................... 97 Conceptual spatio-temporal data modelling and land use change L. A. Beser de Deus, L. F. C. F. Silva & M. A. V. Freitas ............................... 109 Section 3: Sustainability in the built environment Real estate crisis and sustainability in Spain J. L. Miralles i Garcia ..................................................................................... 123 Urban sprawl: can it be sustainable? An analysis on energy performances of different urban forms C. Diamantini & D. Vettorato ......................................................................... 133 Sustainable aspects of traditional Ottoman neighbourhoods in modern Turkish urban settlements G. Koca & R. Karasozen ................................................................................. 145 From scoring to orienting: the development of a compass for evaluating sustainable urban development at the neighbourhood scale H. Vandevyvere................................................................................................ 153 Whole-building design for a green school building in Al-Ain, United Arab Emirates S. K. Elmasry & M. A. Haggag........................................................................ 165 Eco-industrial parks: technologies and procedures for low environmental impacts A. Boeri & D. Longo........................................................................................ 177 Overview of current energy policy and standards in the building sector in Iran M. Riazi & S. M. Hosseyni............................................................................... 189 Integrating passive cooling techniques for sustainable building performance in hot climates with reference to the UAE M. A. Haggag & S. K. Elmasry........................................................................ 201 Visualization of the thermal environments of RC and composite-wall constructions H.-Y. Liu .......................................................................................................... 213
Lowering the sink temperature for a desert solar air conditioning system M. A. Serag-Eldin ............................................................................................ 227 Innovative approaches to urban water management in developing countries S. Beecham & R. Fallahzadeh ......................................................................... 239 A study of the impacts of existing artificial optical radiation at student housing sites P. Hebert.......................................................................................................... 249 An overview of safety effects on pedestrians at modern roundabouts A. Gran .......................................................................................................... 261 Re-design for change: environmental and financial assessment of a dynamic renovation approach for residential buildings A. Paduart, W. Debacker, N. De Temmerman, W. P. De Wilde & H. Hendrickx................................................................................................ 273 Development of a sustainable construction system for temporary structures N. De Temmerman & L. Alegria Mira............................................................. 285 Section 4: Cultural heritage The impact of urban sprawl on the heritage areas through the urban fabric of cities A. El Menchawy, S. S. Aly & M. A. Hakim ...................................................... 299 Investigating the sustainable fabric of the historical city of Marvast M. Mangeli, M. Mangeli & A. Sattaripour ...................................................... 315 Evaluation of the conservation activities in the historical settlement Tenedos-Bozcaada Island F. Akpnar, N. Saygn & E. Karakaya ............................................................. 329 Literary tourism as a promoter of cultural heritage L. Ghetau & L. V. Esanu.................................................................................. 345 The soundscape of cities: a new layer in city renewal M. Leus ............................................................................................................ 355
Section 5: Environmental management The evaluation of ecological sustainable development capacities in Kashan: an historic city of Iran N. Marsousi & A. R. Lajevardi ........................................................................ 371 Trading system of environmental loads: interregional cap and trade system using an ecological footprint T. Ujihara & M. Taniguchi.............................................................................. 381 A scale for architectural design compactness: a mathematical approach M. M. Saeed ..................................................................................................... 397 Bumblebees as potential indicators for the evaluation of habitat quality I. Diaz-Forero, V. Kuusemets, M. Mnd & J. Luig ......................................... 409 Environmental management options for mitigation of congestion impacts in the Atatrk Urban forest of Bursa, Turkey S. Gurluk, G. Atanur & O. Turan .................................................................... 419 Monte Carlo analysis and its application within the valuation of technologies S. . Aguilar, M. Dubov, J. Chudoba & A. arman ...................................... 431 Assessment method for the ecological status of Estonian coastal waters based on submerged aquatic vegetation K. Torn & G. Martin........................................................................................ 443 Evaluation of oil shale mining heritage in Estonia K. Metsaots, K. Sepp & K. A. Roose................................................................ 453 Remediation of coastal sandy soils polluted by petroleum leaks J. Toms Albergaria, C. Delerue-Matos & M. da Conceio M. Alvim-Ferraz .............................................................. 469 Integrated sustainable anaerobic treatment for low strength wastewater S. I. Abou-Elela, M. E. Fawzy, M. El-Khateeb & W. Abdel-Halim ................. 477 Section 6: Resources management A national parkless Northern Ireland: the tourism resource paradox and the implications for sustainability J. P. W. Bell ..................................................................................................... 491
The development of seaweed farming as a sustainable coastal management method in Indonesia: an opportunities and constraints assessment A. Zamroni, K. Laoubi & M. Yamao................................................................ 505 Economic valuation of sport fisheries in Los Cabos, Baja California Sur, Mexico I. Gmez, A. Ivanova, G. Ponce & M. ngeles................................................ 517 Section 7: Social and political issues Sustainability in projects: an analysis of relevant sustainability aspects in the project management process based on the three pillars model S. Kirchhof & R. Brandtweiner........................................................................ 527 Public involvement in sustainable development: a public participation process in the Sidi Gaber railway station development project, Alexandria, Egypt S. S. A. Aly & M. S. E. Amer ............................................................................ 537 Asset management of public facilities in an era of climate change: application of the dynamic computable general equilibrium model Y. Kunimitsu..................................................................................................... 553 Shared responsibility for post-Kyoto A. Hoeltl & R. Brandtweiner ........................................................................... 562 Paying the price: nationalisation of private property or restoring the commons? F. Rochford...................................................................................................... 573 Participation of children: an alternative to building new cities L. Brazil dos Santos Argueta ........................................................................... 583 Reducing greenhouse gases using the pay-as-you-throw (PAYT) system J. H. Kim.......................................................................................................... 599 Section 8: Rural developments Assessment of a sustainable rural development model: best practices in Comala, Colima, Mexico R. Zizumbo-Villarreal & R. I. Roja-Caldelas .................................................. 609 Irrigation and territory in the southeast of Spain: evolution and future perspectives within new hydrological planning A. L. Grindlay, C. Lizrraga, M. I. Rodrguez & E. Molero............................ 623
The relationship between rice and the housing of rice-growers in the north of Iran M. Yousefnia Pasha ......................................................................................... 639 The use of donkeys for transport: the case of Khartoum State, Sudan T.- E. Angara, A. Ibrahim & A. Ismail............................................................. 651 Section 9: Sustainable solutions in developing countries A policy framework for sustainability in developing countries: applying value chain theory to a societys hierarchy of needs P. R. Walsh ...................................................................................................... 663 Evaluating stakeholders preferences: reconciling heritage and sustainability N. A. W. Abdullah Zawawi & A. Abdullah....................................................... 675 Empirical analysis of the linkages between the manufacturing and other sectors of the Nigerian economy D. Salami & I. Kelikume.................................................................................. 687 Challenging limitations for achieving decentralization in terms of participatory planning in developing countries, case study: Egypt A. A. A. M. Ibrahim.......................................................................................... 699 Nigerias industrial development: issues and challenges in the new millennium D. D. Ajayi....................................................................................................... 711 Section 10: Transportation Planning sustainable e-mobility O. Schwedes..................................................................................................... 727 Functional and dysfunctional urban mass transportation systems in the greater Gauteng region of South Africa J. Chakwizira, P. Bikam & T. A. Adeboyejo .................................................... 737 The second Mexican toll road program: learning from the experience S. Carpintero & R. Barcham ........................................................................... 749 Calibration of a method for selecting roundabouts as a function of the inner island treatment J. Falciani, A. Pratelli, M. Martello & R. Souleyrette..................................... 761
Signal setting in an urban area: a procedure with day-to-day dynamic and stability constraints G. E. Cantarella, P. Velon & A. Vitetta......................................................... 773 Optimal planning of selective waste collection S. Raicu, D. Costescu, E. Roca & M. Popa.................................................... 785 Section 11: Container maritime transport (Special session chaired by F. Russo) Container maritime transport on an international scale: a procedure for aggregate estimation of demand variables F. Russo & G. Musolino .................................................................................. 797 Container maritime transport on an international scale: a model to simulate the demand flow in the Mediterranean basin F. Russo & V. Assumma .................................................................................. 809 Container maritime transport on an international scale: a choice model of service and hub port F. Russo, G. Chil & D. Iann ........................................................................ 819 Container maritime transport on an international scale: data envelopment analysis for transhipment port F. Russo & C. Rindone .................................................................................... 831 Section 12: Energy resources Financing sources and policies for renewable energies A. Ivanova, A. Gamez & M. Angeles ............................................................... 847 Energy and the implication of residential cooling in hot climates: a case study for developing an effective solution for residential cooling energy demand in Kuwait H. Al-Mutairi, J. Dewsbury & G. F. Lane-Serff .............................................. 859 Enhanced aquifer thermal energy storage for cooling and heating of Shinshu University building using a nested well system A. Tomigashi & K. Fujinawa........................................................................... 871 Modeling energy savings in low income residencies C. G. Morales & A. J. Malav ......................................................................... 883
Fuel economy and emissions analysis of conventional diesel, diesel-electric hybrid, biodiesel and natural gas powered transit buses A. C. Nix, J. A. Sandoval, W. S. Wayne, N. N. Clark & D. L. McKain ............................................................................................... 895 Street lighting power reduction potential in Lithuanian cities R. Balsys, K. Otas, A. Mikulionis, V. J. Paknas, A. Vakys, P. Vitta & A. ukauskas................................................................................... 909 Biomass pellets production with industrial and agro-industrial wastes J. C. A. R. Claro & D. Costa-Gonzalez ........................................................... 919 Bioethanol production from oilseed rape straw hydrolysate by free and immobilised cells of Saccharomyces cerevisiae A. K. Mathew, K. Chaney, M. Crook & A. C. Humphries................................ 925 Latent heat thermal energy storage systems in lightweight construction: review of PCM applications in Solar Decathlon houses E. Rodrguez-Ubias, L. Ruz-Valero, S. V. Snchez & F. J. Neila Gonzlez .................................................................................... 935 Testing for oil saving technological changes in ARDL models of demand for oil in G7 and BRICs M. Asali............................................................................................................ 947 Author index .................................................................................................. 959
Section 1 Regional planning
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Maritime and coastal spatial planning: the case of Greece and the Mediterranean
E. Beriatos & M. Papageorgiou
Department of Planning and Regional Development, University of Thessaly, Greece
Abstract
Maritime and coastal areas play an important role in the development of human activities and are a substantial influence on the economies of their respective hinterlands. Seas and coasts are among the most complex, vulnerable and sensitive to all natural ecosystems, and their management presents various problems and difficulties especially in our era of climate change in which coastal cities and populations face a range of serious threats (including rising sea levels). The singularity of these areas necessitates an equally singular handling of the issues of their land development and management. At the start of the 21st century the critical issue of the spatial regulation and organization of the seas and coasts is a key priority for Greece and the Mediterranean in the era of climate change. There can be no doubt that the Mediterraneans coastal and marine areas are facing ever greater risks from natural disasters and human pressures alike. Given the experience of EU and UN programs and projects initiated and run by other international organizations which have shown that implementing sustainable spatial development in the coasts and seas is anything but easy, there is clearly a great need for coordinated action and co-operation at the transnational and international level. During the past decade the EU has adopted a strategy for the maritime environment which was incorporated in an Integrated Maritime Policy (IMP) (a European vision for the seas and the oceans). In the framework of the above policy the Commission launched in 2008 a road map for the Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) as the basic means for the implementation of the (IMP) and a fundamental tool for the sustainable development of the European seas and coasts.
WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, Vol 150, 2011 WIT Press www.witpress.com, ISSN 1743-3541 (on-line) doi:10.2495/SDP110011
4 Sustainable Development and Planning V

The paper aims to investigate the effectiveness of the planning instruments and policies launched by the EU in relation to maritime and coastal areas and adopted by the competent public agencies and bodies in Greece and Mediterranean. Furthermore, the paper argues for the substantial implementation of the policy documents relating to Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) and the Spatial Maritime Planning in the framework of EU strategy for the Integrated Maritime Policy.
1 Introduction: the pressures on the Mediterranean coasts and the need for the integrated planning in the 21st century
At the start of the 21st century, the critical issue of the spatial regulation and organization of coastal and marine areas is a key priority for Europe, the Mediterranean and Greece in an era of climate change and environmental shifts. There can be no doubt that the Mediterraneans coastal and marine areas are facing ever greater risks from natural disasters and human pressures alike. The coastal environment is under serious threat from activities (like tourism, transportation etc.) carried out without recourse to even the must rudimentary principles of sustainability; as a result, developmentally and environmentally, these activities are anything but beneficial. Marine transportation and coastal and marine tourism constitute sources and focal points for pollution on land and at sea, and lead to the degradation of the marine and coastal ecosystems. Moreover, the building up (legally or illegally) of the coastal zone, especially near or on the foreshore and seashore, exacerbates the downgrading of these areas, which are also core tourism assets. It should be noted that while the Mediterraneans coastal zones account for just 12% of the surface area of the nation-states bordering the Mediterranean, they are home to 33% of their populations. In addition, while the Mediterranean accounts for 7% of the worlds population, the tourists who chose to holiday there account for roughly 33% of the worlds tourists! [1]. Construction pressures stemming from tourism are expected to lead to an increase in both the permanent population of the Mediterranean and in visitor numbers, which are forecast to rise from 200 million in 2008 to 300 million in 2025, a leap of 50% [2]. It should also be noted that there is significant differentiation in both the quantitative (absolute number) and qualitative (country of origin) composition of the international tourists visiting the European and African/Asian Mediterranean. A parallel reading of Figures 2 and 3 reveals that the urban population of the nations of the south-western Mediterranean is increasing at a rapid rate. Thus, while there were ten metropolises (meaning cities with over a million inhabitants) in 1950, there were no fewer than 29 by the end of the century (1995). This leap in urbanization has led to more and larger metropolises, and thus, also, to the erection of a cement wall along the entire length of the Mediterranean coast, thanks to the construction of a mass of hotel and tourist complexes (Egypt, Turkey, Spain) as well as linear coastal settlements of
WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, Vol 150, 2011 WIT Press www.witpress.com, ISSN 1743-3541 (on-line)
Figure 1:
Number (in thousands) and origin of international tourists in Mediterranean countries in 1999. Source: [3].
Figure 2:
Urbanization rates in Mediterranean countries: 1950, 2000, 2030. Source: [3].
Figure 3:
Cities and towns with more than 10,000 inhabitants: 1950-1995. Source: [3].
second-homes constructed legally or illegally (Greece, Spain). This wall tends to create a zone between the coastal highway and the coastline itself. Areas whose coastal development mirrors this pattern include Alexandria and El Alamein in Egypt, the area east of Antalya in Turkey, the coast beside Malaga and north of Valencia in Spain and the west coast of the Peloponnese in Greece (see Figures 4, 5, 6 and 7). Similarly, the Blue Plan data points to the agricultural population having remained stable or declined as a result of tourist development in every Mediterranean coastal nation, in the developed north-west and less developed south-east alike [3]. The situation described above and coastal urbanization and linear development, in particular creates serious environmental problems as well as raising the cost of the necessary infrastructure. Integrated planning for the coastal and adjoining marine zones is thus essential.
Figure 4:
Western Greece.
Peloponnese,
Figure 5:
Alexandria-El Alamein, Egypt.
Figure 6:
Valencia, Spain.
Figure 7:
Turkey, Antalya.
2 International policy for costs relating to the Euro-Mediterranean region

Mediterranean coastal policy essentially began in 1975 when the Mediterranean Action Plan (MAP) was set up in Barcelona in the context of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The MAP, the first scheme of its kind, was set in motion by the UN to protect the planets regional seas. Structurally, it is comprised of a coordinating unit, which has had its headquarters in Athens since 1982, plus six Regional Activity Centres based in six Mediterranean cities (Split, Palermo, Sophia Antipolis, Barcelona, Malta and Tunis) which occupy themselves with a range of issues and programmes, the most important of which are: a) The Blue Plan / Plan Bleu based in Sophia Antipolis, which seeks to analyse environmental problems and achieve viable Mediterranean development by means of an interdisciplinary systemic approach, and b) the Priority Actions Program / Programme dActions Prioritaires, which is based in Split and focuses on the integrated coastal zone management with an emphasis on solving the problems created by the increasing urbanization of the Mediterranean coast. It was within the MAP framework that the Barcelona Convention was signed in 1976 by the representatives of the Mediterraneans coastal states in Barcelona.

Originally entitled the Convention for the Protection of the Mediterranean Sea Against Pollution, the convention came into force in 1978; amended in 1995, it came into force in 2004 as the Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment and the Coastal Region of the Mediterranean. It should be noted that a number of sub-regional conventions were signed as a direct result of the Barcelona Convention, and numerous international committees formed with members drawn from neighbouring coastal states and a view to protecting the Mediterranean coast. One of the Barcelona Conventions core functions is the publication of technical protocols on a series of crucial environmental issues (Table 1). One of the recent protocols, the supremely important Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) protocol, was signed in Madrid in 2008. Although the protocol represents a compromise between the conflicting interests of the states involved, it still constitutes an important legal obligation to protect the Mediterranean coast, and is a realistic document drawn up by a team including representatives of accredited NGOs which takes international experience into account. However, it has been ratified by just three states to date: France, Albania and Slovenia. Innovative and ground-breaking, the protocol is a unique Table 1: Protocols of the Barcelona Convention.
Content
Date (adoption/entry into force) 16-02-1976/12-02-1978 16-02-1976/12-02-1978 17-05-1980/17-06-1983 10-06-1982/23-03-1986 14-10-1994/Not yet 10-06-1995/ Not yet 10-06-1995/ 12-12-1999 10-06-1995/12-12-1999 07-03-1996/11-05-2008 01-10-1996/18-01-2008 25-01-2002/17-03-2004 21-01-2008/ Not yet
Dumping Protocol (from ships and aircraft) Prevention and Emergency Protocol (pollution from ships and emergency situations) Land-based Sources and Activities Protocol Protocol concerning Mediterranean Specially Protected Areas
Offshore Protocol (pollution from exploration and exploitation) Dumping Protocol (from ships and aircraft or incineration at sea) (amended the Dumping Protocol of 1976) Protocol Concerning Specially Protected Areas in the Mediterranean (replaced the Protocol concerning Mediterranean Specially Protected Areas) Replaces the Protocol concerning Mediterranean Specially Protected Areas of 1982 Protocol for the Protection of the Mediterranean Sea against Pollution from Land-Based Sources (replaced the Landbased Sources and Activities Protocol of 1980) Hazardous Wastes Protocol Protocol Concerning Cooperation in Preventing Pollution from Ships and, in Cases of Emergency, Combating Pollution of the Mediterranean Sea (replaced the Prevention and Emergency Protocol of 1976) Protocol on Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM)
Source: Relevant Official texts of Barcelona Convention protocols.

legal instrument on ICZM in the entire international community in the context of the Coastal Area Management Programme (CAMP) and is unprecedented on a regional level [4]. Turning to its content, it is interesting to note that the protocol adopts inter alia the spatial organic ecosystems approach, the principle of the non edificandi zone and interdisciplinary analysis. We are of the opinion that the protocol would be hard to implement, and that the use of national spatial planning instruments (see section 4) is therefore essential to enable problems to be dealt with and solved, including the need for bodies and measures to be coordinated, for control mechanisms to be introduced with regard to the implementation of the legislation, for land policy to adopt mechanisms for the acquisition, of land to the public domain, and for measures to be taken in the light of climate change. The Coastal Area Management Programmes / Programme Activity Centres (CAMP-PAC) set up in many countries are one of the fundamental means of implementation for the ICZM protocol [5]. Figure 8 shows the areas where these programmes have been run or are currently running.
Figure 8:
Coastal Area Management Programmes in specific Mediterranean regions. Source: [5].
Various noteworthy examples of policies and instruments on the national level should also be noted, including the Conservatoire de l Espace Littoral et des Rivages Lacustres (CELRL), a French national protection body for coastal spaces, lakes and rivers set up with a view to acquiring land from the public sector [6]. In parallel and in combination with the activities of the UN and the Barcelona Convention, the EU has undertaken initiatives relating to Integrated Coastal Zone Management in all its member-states. Thus, a pilot programme was set in motion in the late 1990s (1997-1999) whose conclusions led to the submission of a Proposal for a Recommendation [7] and the issuing of a Communication [8] to

the Council and the European Parliament, which made a Recommendation on 30/05/2002 relating to the implementation in Europe of the ICZM [9]. The Recommendation refers to the need for a strategic approach, the application of core management principles, national strategies and cooperation. In 2007, the Commission published a Communication [10] in the form of a report to the Council and the European Parliament evaluating the ICZM Recommendation in the light of previous evaluations (by the European Environment Agency (EEA) the indicators working group etc.). This document also refers to the reports produced by 14 of the EUs 20 coastal member-states Greece among them which had been presented to the Commission. The evaluation revealed that, despite the positive impact made by the Recommendation through its championing of a more holistic spatial planning, there had been delays and no significant progress. The national reports provided only limited information on the effectiveness of implementation mechanisms, while few countries and regions had contributed to the analysis of the environmental indictors. Moreover, the evaluation report recognized that the environmental degrading of the coasts remained a serious problem, and linked future progress in relation to ICZM with: a) the Green Paper on maritime policy, b) the ICZM protocol within the framework of the Barcelona Convention and c) the INSPIRE directive (2007/2 EU L108) which aims at a combined environmental information system (relevant policy documents in Table 2). Table 2:
Date 1999 08-09-2000 27-09-2000 06-06-2002 07-06-2006 07-06-2007 10-10-2007 25-06-2008 25-11-2008 26-06-2008 15-10-2009
Coastal and maritime spatial planning in Europe: Policy documents.

Content Towards a European (ICZM) Strategy General Principles and Policy Options mplementation of Integrated Coastal Zone Management in Europe n Integrated Coastal Zone Management: A strategy for Europe mplementation of the Integrated Coastal Zone Management Towards a future Maritime Policy for the Union: A European vision for the oceans and seas An evaluation of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) in Europe An Integrated Maritime Policy for the European Union stablishing a framework for community action in the field of marine environmental policy (Marine Strategy Framework Directive) Roadmap for Maritime Spatial Planning: Achieving Common Principles in the EU Guidelines for an Integrated Approach to Maritime Policy: Towards best practice in integrated maritime governance and stakeholder consultation Progress Report on the EU's integrated maritime policy Form Reflection paper Proposal for Recommendation Communication Recommendation Communication /Green Paper Communication Communication/Blue Paper Directive Communication Communication Communication
Source: Relevant EU Official texts.
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3 The case of coastal Greece: a critical approach to the existing situation and spatial planning
In formal, official terms, Greece, an EU member-state, is considered a developed nation in accordance with every UN human development index. In essence, however, Greece is geographically part of the Balkans, south-eastern Europe and the Mediterranean, with all that entails in terms of influences from neighbouring states. Due to its geopolitical position, but also to its domestic policies and cultural and social traditions, Greece has problems which relate to its political system, its productive infrastructure, its administrative organization, to the development or research and technology and above all to the organization and planning of its space: urban, rural and special categories like coastal space. That Greece has more coastline than any other European or Mediterranean country is a fundamental consideration in its spatial planning as well as its environmental and developmental policies. In fact, Greece has over 3000 islands and islets which represent 20% of its surface area and 14% of its population. In Greece, with over 15,000 km of coastline, every square kilometre equates to 114 m of coast or sea front, compared to an EU average (27 member states) of 6.5 m, and a world average of just 4.3 m! The Greek coastline accounts for roughly a third of the entire coastline of the Mediterranean, and to almost a quarter of that of the EU (27 member states) [11]. With over 70% of Greeces population and over 90% of its tourists concentrated in its coastal zone, the possible consequences of climate change are likely to render this zone especially vulnerable to flooding and rising sea levels. To facilitate a more systematic and all-inclusive image of the existing situation, we have employed a typology of coastal zone areas developed by the research group of the University of Thessaly in the context of the INTERREGUrbacost Programme (Co-ordinating agency: KEPEMEP-Med Regio: leader of the Greek consortium in which the University of Thessaly participated as main partner). The typology emerges from a classification / categorization which employs morphological features of natural and man-made space as criteria, including: a) The terrain (geomorphologic features, gradients etc.); b) vegetation (low, medium, high, ground cover, brush wood, bushes, trees); c) building construction (dense /sparse, unregulated); d) technical infrastructure (transportation, telecommunications, energy networks); e) excavations and earthworks (mining, quarrying, embankments, earth fills, land fills); f) country billboards. Also used as criteria are the uses and functions of the land, such as tourism, agricultural and the agrarian uses which are fundamental features of Greeces territorial capital and socio-economic reality / structure. Combining the above parameters (passed mainly on settlement and land use patterns) we produced the five types of coastal regions listed below: 1. Plains (flat terrains) with intensive cultivations and rural settlements, agritourism activities under development. 2. Flat areas with linear urban development-especially along the sea front having scattered building constructions (illegal or not). Dominant land uses: secondary residence and tourist accommodation.

3. Rough terrains. Land cover: pastures, maquis vegetation, bush land, Traditional cultivations in terraces, rural settlements, agritourism activity under development. 4. Rough areas with linear urban development-especially along the sea fronthaving scattered building constructions (illegal or not). Dominant land uses: secondary residence and tourist accommodation. 5. Mountainous areas covered by forest vegetation or maquis, rough terrain, rocky coasts, low population density or empty, no human settlements, mountain tourism activities and isolated tourist installations (refuges, ski centers etc). Recognizing, analyzing and interpreting the structural features of the coasts is an essential prerequisite for any institutional regulation and planning which seeks to bring about their viable and integrated protection and development. A study of the brief history of spatial planning in Greece reveals that the regulation of coastal space (institutional instruments, planning techniques etc.) has mirrored the course of spatial planning in general, which, due to social, economic and technological developments, has moved from small to largescale regulation. Thus, initial efforts sought to address the problems facing the coastline meaning the coastal zone where water met land with corresponding legislation (Law 2344/1940, later replaced by Law 2971/2001). Then, in the early 1980s, Law 1337/83 sought to tackle the problems of unregulated construction and access to the sea in a 500-metre coastal setback zone in which enclosures were forbidden. Finally, from the 1990s on, the focus has been on regulating the spatial organization of the coastal zone in general and on instituting new zones (in addition to those mentioned above) with a view to integrated coastal zone management, the removal of conflict between different land uses, free access to the sea and the regulation of pedestrian and vehicular traffic. The development of the core legislation (not including previsions from other legislation dealing indirectly with coastal zone) is summarized in Table 3. Table 3:
Date 1940 1983 1984 2001 2010
Core legislation relating to Greek coastal space.

Comments Never implemented Never implemented Not yet finalized
Source: Relevant issues of the Official Government Gazette (OGG), Hellenic Ministry for the Environment, Physical Planning and Public Works, 2009. The coastal zones and the regulations applying to each will be examined in more detail below.
Type and content of institutional regulation Compulsory Law 2344/1940 On the Sea Shore (foreshore and backshore) Law 1337/83 Articles 23 and 24 On the protection of coasts and coastal roads, OGG 33/83 Presidential Decree 236/84 On enclosing coastal land, OGG 95/84 Law 2971/01 On the Sea Shore (foreshore, backshore etc.), OGG 285/2001 National Guidelines for the Spatial Planning and Sustainable Development of the Coastal Zone - Ministerial Decision
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3.1 The sea shore: foreshore and backshore zones The foreshore (the amphibious part of the coastal zone exposed at low tide) and the backshore are the most sensitive and critical coastal zone from an ecological and environmental as well as a social, economic and developmental point of view. The space of the foreshore is delimited by nature. According to the current legislation: The foreshore is the zone which is wet by the largest nonextraordinary waves (OGG A285/2001). In contrast, the backshore is a social product defined by the state (The backshore is the terrestrial zone added to the foreshore which is defined as having a breadth of up to fifty (50) metres from the upper limit of the foreshore to serve communication between land and sea and vice versa). As spatial zones, the foreshore and the backshore are organically and functionally linked. There can be no foreshore without a backshore, which is the functionally public space necessary for enjoying the environmental and social good of the foreshore and for providing free access to it. Law 2344/1940, the first legislation that sought to regulate the foreshore and backshore zone, dates back to the end of the interwar period and was groundbreaking for its time. It would be amended on several occasions during what would prove a long active life (over 60 years), the most important amendment, from an environmental point of view-in view of the accelerated urbanization of the coastal zone during the post-war period (see the following subsection) being the institution of a new and larger backshore width (raised from 30 to 50 metres) in 1983. Clearly, this initial legislation could not foresee the developments to come in the contemporary period, which included tourist development, coastal erosion and a rise in sea-levels due to the greenhouse effect. Still, the efforts which began in the early 1980s to thoroughly overhaul the special legislation relating to the foreshore were slow in bearing fruit, delaying the process excessively until the first decade of the 21st century. And while the Hellenic Ministry of Finance sought to modernize the relevant institutional framework in technical, administrative and bureaucratic terms, despite the lastminute amendments, the new institutional framework ultimately proved unsuccessful both in ensuring the public good it was supposed to have defended, and in ushering in genuinely new conditions. For instance, the institutional protection provided for coastal zone could have been bolstered as the circumstances of the age demanded, with the proliferation of building without planning permission by legally setting the coastal setback at a minimum of 50 metres from the upper limit of the foreshore. To be truly effective and beneficial, any legal framework governing the space, development and environment of the foreshore and backshore would have to take a contemporary and innovative approach to land policy issues. For instance, the provisions relating to the expropriation of property in the backshore zone would have to come packaged with the means (financial resources) for purchasing these properties. Otherwise, other land policy instruments will have to be found for acquiring the backshore land, which must, in accordance with the core aim expressed by the law itself, be both public and for common use. Moreover, on a

larger scale, the zone must be spatially and geographically linked to the coastal zone as a whole of which the strip comprised of the foreshore and backshore constitutes a spatial subset to an adequate depth both landwards and seawards. 3.2 500-metres coastal setback in which enclosures are forbidden Law 1337/83 on the expansion of cities and settlements, which formed the basis for the Urban Restructuring Programme (EPA), also included provisions relating to the protection of the rural environment, primarily through the institution of the Controlled Construction Zone and the 500-metre setback from the coast in which enclosures were forbidden, both to protect the coasts and to ensure access to them a perennial issue in Greece. This second provision has proven of critical importance in protecting the coastal zone, even though it has not been applied as widely as expected, despite the importance of the issue for Greece and Greek public opinion being supposedly sensitive to the issue of liberating the nations coasts. These innovative and radical provisions addressed two issues as crucial in todays social context as they were then: a) The exclusion as the rule of enclosures in a 500-metre setback zone from the shoreline intended to ensure free access to the sea; in those cases were enclosures were permitted, guidelines were provided for their positioning and construction in accordance with the use to which the enclosed land was to be put. It should be noted that the Presidential Decree was formulated and published with the application of this provision specifically in mind; b) The creation (through the expropriation of privately-owned property for the public good) of public access routes to the sea and the shore. These routes are chiefly foreseen as pedestrian, without this precluding the creation of roads for vehicles with the required parking spaces but without provisions for roadside plot divisions and building constructions. It should be noted that the law foresaw the demolition of existing enclosures blocking access to the coast a radical measure by the standards of the time as well as the removal of buildings on the shore and the transfer of the ownership of these buildings to the local authorities or to organizations for the public good until their demolition. However, while these provisions were considered reasonable by all parties and satisfied the sense of public justice, they have with very few exceptions not been applied, due to the familiar inertia and involvement of the governmental bodies and the corruption and clientelism of local politics. However, this does not rob the provisions of their importance even today, since all remain in force and can be activated at any time, demonstrating once again that Greece has a wellstocked and well-provisioned though inactive, unused and sometimes undermined spatial planning armoury. 3.3 Zones foreseen in the national guidelines on coastal areas The need for the coastal zone to be organized and administered in a more integrated way and on a larger scale in the context of the guidelines laid down in international and European treaties and conventions necessitated the drawing up
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of national guidelines on the basis of an institutional instrument foreseen by Law 2742/99: the Special Framework for Spatial Planning and Sustainable Development (SFSPSD). However, although drafting of the framework which addressed Greeces coastal space and islands began in the late 1990s and the result was presented in 2003 as emergency legislation on Greeces coastal and island space, it has yet to be implemented. The latest version of the Framework, which was submitted to the Ministry of the Environment for discussion in 2009, is substantially different from the original, due to developments in international and European-Mediterranean space, as well as to changes in Greek spatial planning policy. Specifically, the Framework now adheres to European models in promoting Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), defining the coastal zone more broadly both landwards and seawards, and introducing a three-way division of the coastal area into critical, dynamic and other/transitional zones, all of which have a terrestrial as well as a marine section and are subject to different provisions with regard to permissible construction and land uses. The landward limits of the transitory zone extend as far as the administrative boundaries of coastal municipalities, though not beyond or further than the 600-metre index contour line (Figure 9). These zones constitute the hinterland of the foreshore zone, and are equally important for the functioning of the coastal ecosystem and for the production activities that take place there.
Figure 9:
The coastal zone of Greece at the level of first-tier local authorities territorial units (marked in grey).

Undoubtedly, the Special Framework (national guidelines) for coastal areas is both necessary and useful for planning, since it can coordinate and incorporate the existing regulations governing the foreshore and the 500-metre enclosurefree zone. Still, although it regulates construction in each coastal zone in detail, the Framework does not reference the aforementioned coastal legislation and correspondences cannot be drawn between the two. In addition, the framework does not seem to correlate satisfactorily either with the already approved Special Framework (national guidelines) on Tourism or with regional and local spatial plans. However, quite apart from problems of internal cohesion and organization, the Framework seems to fail to address substantial issues relating to the degree of protection it provides for the coastal environment: its retention, for example, of a 50-metre setback from the shore for buildings in place of the 100-metre zone enforced in other countries, and its failure to ban roads running parallel to the coast, despite the pressure they exert for road-side constructions being extremely well-documented. It should be noted, too, that other Mediterranean countries (like Italy, Spain and Portugal) have introduced stricter provisions in relation to building on the coast (greater setbacks, stricter control of land uses etc.), while the Frameworks provisions aimed at reducing the coverage coefficient in the dynamic zone in relation to the institutional framework for spatial planning in general remain somewhat ineffective.
4 Conclusions
In an era in which the greenhouse effect and desertification are making there presence felt ever more acutely as they pose a serious threat to the coastal and marine ecosystems in Greece and the Mediterranean, we need to look ahead to new organizational structures with a view to integrated planning for coastal regions. The usual offices in the various ministries, regions, prefectures and municipalities that are usually called upon to solve the problems relating to demarcation, protection and administration are insufficient, as a result of which the all-important issues of coordination and cooperation between the bodies involved and the drafting and application of policy are totally ignored by the proposed regulations as they stand, which all fail to deal with the critical and important issues relating to the policy of creating a reserve of public land for the protection of the coastal environment. To date, management by means of a powerful and inspired national programme significantly absent from the post-war planning landscape has not served to redress this state of affairs. With the experience amassed thus far and the requisite political will, the legal and technical solutions can be found to create free common spaces in the backshore zone, and to do so without burdening the public purse excessively. In the coastal zone, an area beset by problems of land ownership, it is essential that a special mechanism be put in place for their solution, meaning something similar to the French Conservatoire du littoral adapted to the Greek situation, which will help in the drafting of a well
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thought-out spatial planning policy for our coasts and provide the means for its application. There is also an urgent need to incorporate/adapt/codify legislation relating to Spatial Planning in order to coordinate the activities and programmes of all the parties involved. The integrated coastal zone planning management remains a complex issue and a difficult project requiring systematic approach and data gathering. This will have to lead to the drawing up of a strategy which will be in accordance with and make active use of the favourable provisions included in the international conventions and EU guidelines as well as in the Blue Plan produced by the UN Mediterranean Action Plan to make it possible within clearly limits to protect and develop a valuable natural resource of vast environmental and socio-economic importance.
References
[1] UNEP/MAP/Blue Plan (2005), Report on Environment and Development in the Mediterranean RED [2] Arnold, C. (2008), Mediterranean Islands, London: Survival Books [3] Benoit, G. & Comeau, A. (2005), Mditerrane: Les perspectives du Plan Bleu sur lenvironnement et le developpement, Editions de lAube et Plan Bleu [4] UNEP/MAP/PAP-RAC (2010), Protocol on ICZM in the Mediterranean. Available at: http://www.pap-thecoastcentre.org/about.php?blob_id=56& lang=en [5] UNEP/MAP/PAP-RAC (2001), Coastal Area Management Programme CAMP: Strategic Framework for the Future Priority Actions Programme RAC Split, May 2001. Available at: http://www.pap-thecoastcentre.org/ [6] DATAR (2004), Construire ensemble un developpement equilibre du littoral, Rapport sous la direction de Christine Bouyer, Paris: La Documentation Franaise [7] European Commission (2000a), Recommendation on the implementation of the Integrated Coastal Zone Management, Brussels: COM2000/545 [8] European Commission (2000b), Communication of the Commission on the Integrated Coastal Zone Management. A Strategy for Europe Brussels : COM 2000/547 [9] European Union Council (2002), Recommendation of The European parliament and the Council on the implementation of the Integrated Coastal Zone Management, Brussels: Official Journal of the European Communities 2002/413, L148/6-6-2002 [10] European Commission (2007), Communication of the Commission. Evaluation Report on the Integrated Coastal Zone Management in Europe. Brussels: COM 2007/308 [11] Karyotis, T. (2010) The Aegean and the European Union, Journal Epikaira available at http://m-epikaira.gr/category/diethni/
19
Limits and possibilities for the promotion of sustainable development: the case of Northwest Region Fluminense
D. C. Vivas Neto1 & E. A. Nascimento2
Pro-Rectory of Extension, Brazil 2 Federal Fluminense University, Brazil
Abstract
This paper aims to present partial results of the first stage of a participatory research conducted in the Northwest Region of the State of Rio de Janeiro, from July 2009 to June 2010. This region has the lowest HDI (Human Development Index) of the State of Rio de Janeiro, and the State Secretariat for Planning and Management projects for the next 25 years GDP to grow by only 4.11%, in total for the Region Northwest Fluminense. This reality prompted the formation of a working group consisting of social actors such as community members, representatives from the local government and the Federal Fluminense University, aiming to build innovative forms of development for this region. In this sense, we conducted a participant survey whose main steps were: data collection of the socio-environmental region, and systematization of information collected through discussion groups and seminars. As a result we created the Board of Municipal Secretaries of the Environment - COSEMA. This Council empowers its members to promote dialogue of environmental public policies in the region, establishing itself as a strategy for encouragement in order to radiate toward the state and federal political levels. Keywords: sustainable development, regional planning councils, governance.
1 Introduction
Brazil lives, from the early years of the XXI century, a resumption of economic growth, a process interrupted in the 80s. Major Projects and programs are being implemented in different regions that compose it. The state of Rio de Janeiro, a part of the Southeast, is one of the cities that have received large investments,

particularly in sectors related to infrastructure of the oil and steel industries. This fact is extremely interesting and raises the need for monitoring by civil society, given that historically there was no equity in the spatial distribution of investments. This created an imbalance between regions, causing some of them to have their own development process compromised. The Northwest Fluminense is one of them, as will be shown in this article. At a time when growth is resumed, it is necessary with actions that work toward not only contributing to an equal distribution of resources, but also ensure the promotion of sustainable development. The COSEMA is an entity committed to ensuring the achievement of these goals. Organized in 2009, it consists of the secretaries of the environment, with direct assistance of technicians from the Federal Fluminense University. Its creation has proved positive, it has contributed to the concept of sustainability being disseminated widely and incorporated in the administrations of the municipalities that compose it. It has also given visibility to the region in the state and national scene, which is important for fundraising. Moreover, it has contributed to the promotion of sustainability. These initial actions contribute to sustainability in political, economic and social environments. These have been the possibilities. However it has limits. As one of the technicians involved in advising, I see the lack of a deeper vision of sustainability and its meanings in the administrative setting. Still missing is the inclusion of other dimensions such as economic, demographic, cultural, institutional, technological and legal space.
2 Northwest Fluminense: pictures of unsustainability

The differentiated destination of economic resources between different regions of Brazil, due largely in recent years, is a result of the political alliances but primarily because of a development model hub and exclusion. The first stage of this model starts from the 50s, when Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro were chosen to receive investments that would enable the structuring of industrial capital. The other states and regions have been relegated, causing a disruption to their economies and population depletion [1]. In the 70s, investments were directed to monopoly capital, to ensure conditions for its reproduction and expansion. In that context, it has become crucial "to create conditions for the development of reproductive dynamics (the capital) and infrastructure for its implementation" (Jacobi, 1989, 8). In this sense high investments were made mainly in industry power generation and at specific points, creating more disruption and deflation. At that time the RJ was not included, which caused a slowdown of their activities, with different implications in each of their regions [2, 3]. Northwest Fluminense was one of the most affected regions. The designation "North Fluminense" served to denote a portion of territory that covered the entire northern part of the State of Rio de Janeiro (Fig.1), without considering the current division into North and Northwest Fluminense. Until the 1970s, the territory was covered by Microregion of Campos, and the Micro-region of Itaperuna, Microregion of Miracema. The official name of North Fluminense
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occurred in 1975, along with the three micro-regions mentioned above, plus the city of Itaocara. In 1980, the name becomes North Fluminense Mesoregion. Only in 1987 the Greater Region Northwest Fluminense is separated from the North Mesoregion [4, 5].
Figure 1:
Northwest Region of Rio de Janeiro state.
With the economy based on the alcohol industry ("sucroalcooleira"), coffee and livestock production, the region known as the most innovative and dynamic state, suffered a huge decline in socioeconomic status from the 80s of the 20th Century in the context of national economic crisis and crisis of the state of Rio de Janeiro [4,5]. Today the region presents a framework for sustainability as show below: The concept of "sustainability" expressed different dimensions and related concepts of organic and systemic ways. Hence the environmental sustainability, ecological sustainability, social sustainability, political sustainability, economic sustainability, demographic sustainability, cultural sustainability, institutional sustainability, territorial sustainability, technological sustainability and legal sustainability. For a brief analysis of the unsustainability of the Northwest Region we will take as a reference the environmental, social and economic sustainability [6, 7]. Economic unsustainability The Northwest Fluminense is showing inefficiency in the management of financial and natural resources, characterized by irregular flow of public and private investments, according to a macro assessment. The PIB of State in 2007 was R$ 324,370,491,236.30, which the Metropolitan Region of Rio de Janeiro accounted for 73.61%, followed by North Fluminense with 10.79%, the South with 7.58 %, the Baixada with 5.18%, the Centre with 1.77% and finally the Northwest Region with 1.07%, this was the area that contributed the least to the generation of wealth in the State of Rio de Janeiro [4].

Environmental unsustainability The Region Northwest Fluminense in the face of anthropogenic interference, throughout its history of occupation, its ecosystems had changed significantly, reducing or even preventing the natural self-purification that still exists. Its cover was dramatically changed due to the occurrence of fire and clearing for agricultural exploitation. Biodiversity loss is also closely linked to land conflicts by urban sprawl in areas of risk or protection. The present forest fragments are small and dispersed, causing dryness of the soil. This is a significant environmental harm, given that it increases the risk of erosion. The Atlantic Forest, before existing, mostly gave way to pastures, which occupy most of the Northwest region and are distributed in all types of relief. These areas are up to four times the amount of forest cover remaining. However, although the grasslands occupy large tracts of land, they do not guarantee a large livestock production, since these have low productivity because of soil degradation [4, 5]. The rainfall in the region has decreased considerably over the last 40 years. The distribution of average annual rainfall records low levels in the region ranging between 750 mm and 1,250 mm per year [5]. Regarding water supply, the Northwest region has experienced serious supply constraints, both for human and animal consumption, due to the scarcity of recent years. Rampant deforestation of the few remaining forests, use and inadequate management of soil erosion has led to making the soil less permeable. Another contributing factor to this scenario is low and poorly distributed rainfall, which is concentrated in the summer months, causing rivers, streams and shallow wells dry up the region for most of the year. Thus there is a loss for the full recharge of water systems, leading to the disappearance of temporary rivers, siltation of rivers and the disappearance of springs, which compromises the integrity of ecosystems [5]. Social unsustainability The Northwest region presents intergenerational cycles of poverty and chronic poverty, lower average education level, low levels of income for most of the economically active population, migration, urban violence and crime. This region has the lowest HDI (Human Development Index) of the State of Rio de Janeiro and the State Secretariat for Planning and Management projects for the next 25 years the GDP to grow only by 4.11%, in total for Region Northwest Fluminense. The chart below shows a scenario for 2035, comparing the evolution of PIB between the North and Northwest Fluminense [4, 5]. The large informal labor market and areas of poverty, with a visible lack of infrastructure, show that the Northwest presents itself impoverished and weakened in various social areas. The region faces a shortage of qualified manpower, wherefore local initiatives need measures of productivity and commercialization. The existing scenario in the region is that environmental, economic and social rights are incompatible with sustainable development proposals drawn from the 80s. The challenge posed is the pursuit of development. In the next section will
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Figure 2:
North and Northwest region Fluminense, GDP, 20052035.
be shown how the actions of the Council of Secretaries of the Environment has contributed to overcoming this challenge. 2.1 The councils as alternative sustainable development The presence of the Fluminense Federal University in the region, through extension activities, allowed an assessment of the issue and the organization of a working group. During the performance of the National Environmental Health Conference, in So Jos de Ub, Rio de Janeiro, in 2009, was presented to the plenary, to vote on the proposal for a council meeting secretaries of the area's environment. In the recent history of Brazil can be identified at least three types of councils: a) government these were created by the executive government in the context of populist governments, taking a mediating role between the government and society, represented by popular movements and organizations; b) popular emerged in the popular movements to facilitate negotiations with the government, notably in health, education, services and urban facilities, and; c) institutionalized these were created by laws from the legislative branch, with opportunities to participate in the management of public affairs. They are management councils, created from the 90s [8]. This method was considered to be interesting for the purpose of moving toward sustainability. The COSEMA has the following characteristics: It is composed of secretaries of the environment. It has regional coverage territorial scale intermediate between the state and municipality. It has as its goal the promotion of sustainable development in its many dimensions public policies of the long-term. It has direct technical assistance to public universities and research centers.

The work methodology consists of participatory research, whose development was based on procedures built by Bellagio [9]. According to the author is required: To have a clear vision of sustainable development and goals that define it; To revise the current system as a whole and in parts, considering the well-being of social, ecological and economical subsystems, its states, to change the direction and rate of change in relation to these states and their interrelationships; To consider the positive and negative consequences of human activities in ways that reflect the costs and benefits to humans and ecological systems, in monetary and non-monetary ways; To consider the issues of equality and disparity between the current population and between present and future generations, evaluating the use of resource consumption and poverty, human rights and access to basic services; To consider the ecological conditions of which life depends; To consider economic and other activities outside the market, contributing to human welfare and social development; To adopt a plan of long horizon long enough to cover the time scales of human and natural ecosystems, thus responding to the needs of future generations, but also those who need short-term planning; To define the scope of work, broad enough to include the impacts locally and regionally (globally) on the population and ecosystems, based on historical and current conditions to anticipate future conditions where to go, where one can go, and To use an organizational structure that connects the vision and goals to indicators and assessment criteria, using a limited number of points for analysis, a limited number or combination of indicators to get a clearer signal of the process, standardize measures when possible, to allow comparisons, comparing indicator values to targets, reference values or limits. The methods and data must be accessible to everyone, all judgments, assumed values and uncertainties in data and interpretations should be provided. To be designed to meet the needs of the community and its users, using indicators and other tools that can stimulate and bring the attention of governments, seeking simplicity in structure and use accessible language. To obtain effective community representation, professional people, social groups and technicians, to ensure diversity and recognition of values used.
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possibility of changing complexity of the systems, structures set goals and indicators as new knowledge and ideas are coming; promote the awareness of society so that it can meet those who make the decision. Indicate responsibilities and obtain priority in the management process and decision; provide institutional capacity for collection, maintenance and documentation of data, and, ensure and provide capacity to local assessment. 2.1.1 The actions of the board So far several actions can be identified at the municipal, regional, state and federal levels, as shown below: Expansion and dissemination of the concept of sustainability Although board members had as its goal the construction of sustainability, they lacked an understanding of the meaning of it. With the advice of the University were conducted workshops in which they had the opportunity to discuss the concept in general and the operation in the region. Promotion of political articulation The COSEMA created an agenda of meetings with the aim of presenting the reality experienced by the secretaries in their respective municipal units. During these meetings the secretary that had not shared their difficulties, began a process of conversation. Thus was organized by COSEMA a meeting in the Miracema city, with the presence of the Secretary of State for Environment (SEA), Chairman of the State Authority for Environmental (INEA), the region's Mayors, Secretaries of the environment, civil defense and education, and civil servants of secretariats, and Fluminense Federal University. Through the elaboration of strategies, discussed in meetings between the secretaries, are certain plans of action made, with the objective of coordinating the various municipalities within the region and state and federal government. Systemic and holistic approach to the problems the environmental, social and economic commitment, development that hitherto was not discussed or discussed piecemeal, for each municipality, now begin to have a systemic and holistic approach at regional level. The most significant example is facing the problem of flooding in the region. Before the creation of COSEMA, the problems were treated in a timely fashion, being confined to assistance in engineering, without any reference to environmental issues. Today its part of the agenda of the meetings that address this problem, deforestation and the need for reforestation, the illegal occupation of marginal strips and the need for a housing policy in the region, the release of waste into rivers and the need for a sanitation policy and change of the local culture through Ecocidadania program. The incorporation of these issues by COSEMA has occurred through a new performance of secretaries with regard to the implementation of environmental education. This was confined to the bead of the secretary of education, addressing in a timely manner, the physical, chemical and biological aspects. The reflections of the members of COSEMA, especially those relating to sustainability and its dimensions, have contributed to some actions being implemented in municipal management. One of them within the basic education

was a bailout of the municipal gardens, which were solely linked to the production of exotic fruit tree seedlings, now presenting themselves as pedagogical space to develop projects and programs offered by Ecocidadania to the local community. Besides the production of seedlings of exotic trees, some day nurseries produce tree seedlings of Atlantic native, for the reforestation of degraded areas and to farmers for planting in the areas of permanent preservation APP on their properties. The next step is to establish the region as a major producer of tree seedlings in the Atlantic Forest, since the state lacks sufficient seedlings to meet demand for planting. Regional articulation Despite having been important in the past and may take a strategic position in the economic outlook, the Northwest Fluminense had little visibility in the state and on federal level. Visibility and articulation of COSEMA in federal and state administrations allowed the purchase of an accent on CONAMA, the only region of the state of the CONAMA environment at the federal level. The presence of representatives from Northwest Fluminense in this important region gives advice on environmental scenarios. And by presenting their needs, they can obtain the resources or make laws that help to address issues specific to the region as well as other regions who suffer from the same issue. Strengthening of regional social and environmental identity Although close, the municipal units are unaware of the reality of their neighboring counties, in social, political, environmental and institutional aspects. During the workshops held in the Clerks COSEMA environmental rescue stories of the occupation, the impact of economic activities on the environment, especially in their agropastoral districts also had the characteristic and difficulty of their respective municipalities, which were discussed by all contributing to the formulation of proposals to confront these issues at the regional level. Addressing issues from the perspective of sustainability Data and information presented at meetings by members of COSEMA are disclosed in their respective halls. Although there is still public policies for sustainable development in the region, this procedure is an established concern on the municipal and state levels. An example is the routing that is being given to disposal of solid waste in the region, the waste from each municipality was discarded improperly, so participants of COSEMA act as organizers and facilitators in the process of building the Northwest Landfill II. Fundraising To lessen the difficulty of obtaining financial resources and materials, the members of COSEMA identifying the lack of material from the Department and which threatened the progress of environmental management activities in the municipalities, has drafted a proposal that included the acquisition needs of equipment by the departments in the region and collectively presented this proposal to state power. Another strategy observed in the activities of COSEMA, was to strengthen the discussion on the GST-Eco Programme of the state government to transfer resources to municipalities from the achievement of goals related to improving the environmental capital of the municipalities. Socialization strategies for access to the resource-ecological ICMS enabled the
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increase in tax collection by municipalities and to later transfer these resources to the departments of environment. The monitoring of activities with low environmental impact, is undergoing a process of decentralization, leaving the municipalities to perform them. On one side this brings the resources to fund municipal environment, but then requires the existence of a qualified and diverse staff. However, the individual local municipalities did not have human resources to meet this demand. The COSEMA suggested creating a database of experts consisting of professionals from municipalities of the region, the idea is that this bank account not only supervision, but also other needs of the region.
3 Conclusion
As shown at the beginning of this article, COSEMA has among its goals the overcoming of unsustainability and the promotion of sustainable development for the region. Of course this requires a long period of time and the presence of several actors of all segments of society. Community participation is important, especially for the historically excluded. We must create effective channels of social participation of the grassroots, encouraging the presentation of demands, dreams and contributions coming from the living land. It also requires effective environmental education programs, formal and informal, and at all levels of education. At the top level, which prepares future managers and technicians, the inclusion of environmental education becomes more necessary. And finally, we consider the important role of state and federal governments in the determination of sustainable strategies in formulating their plans, in the short, medium and long term. Therefore, the actions of COSEMA must be accompanied by strategies that enable the participation of society, contributing to the implementation of environmental education programs and public policies that contribute to sustainable development. Despite the non-fulfillment of these requirements, the action of COSEMA has been important in combating the environmental unsustainability, above all in relation to the recovery of degraded areas by planting and production of forest seedlings. These actions will help to reverse the sedimentation basin that we observe in the fabric of the region, facilitating the replenishment of aquifers and therefore alter the microclimate of the region, competing with more stable levels of humidity and temperature. The COSEMA has spurred the creation of conservation units in the municipalities of San Jos de Ub, Santo Antnio de Pdua and Miracema. These units have already been created for prediction of new ones. The creation of a network of protected natural area, points to a sustainable management of biodiversity, establishing the connectivity of forest fragments and preventing the extinction of endemic species in the region. An important fact is that the departments of environment in the region, while critical sectors of the municipal administration were neglected in relation to financial resources and personnel, did not have enough space and did not have

financial resources and personnel, did not have enough space and did not have estimates of appeal in the municipal budget, lacked a local action plan. COSEMA with the actions of the municipal environment has been strengthened politically and technically, enlarging the channels of conversation and possible involvement in the sustainable management of municipal and regional level. As demonstrated, the possibilities are endless and the limits for establishment of sustainable development in the region tend to be overcome by strengthening COSEMA, that can be achieved through the contribution of universities under extension, teaching and research.
References
[1] Abreu, M.A. A Evoluo Urbana no Rio de Janeiro. Zahar: Rio de Janeiro, 1988. - book [2] Pochmann, M & Amorim, R. A excluso social no Brasil. Cortez: So Paulo, 2003. - book [3] Castells, M. A. Questo urbana. Paz e Terra: Rio de Janeiro, 1983. - book [4] Secretaria Estadual de Planejamento e Gesto Rio de Janeiro. Plano de Desenvolvimento Sustentvel do Norte e Noroeste do Estado do Rio de Janeiro: (Cenrios e Estratgias), 2010. - Report [5] Secretaria Estadual de Planejamento e Gesto Rio de Janeiro. Plano de Desenvolvimento Sustentvel do Norte e Noroeste do Estado do Rio de Janeiro: (Anlise SituacionaI), 2010. - Report [6] Bidone, E.D. & Morales, P.R.D. Introduo a noo de desenvolvimento sustentvel In:__. Desenvolvimento sustentvel e engenharia. Rio de Janeiro: Fundao Ricardo Franco, 2004. p.17-34. chapter in a book [7] Sachs, I. Caminhos para o desenvolvimento sustentvel. Rio de Janeiro: Garamond, 2009. 96p. - book [8] Gohn, M.G. Conselhos populares e participao popular. In: Conselhos gestores e participao sociopoltica. So Paulo: Cortez, 2001. p.65-82. - chapter in a book [9] Philippi Jr., A. Pelicione, M.C.F., Sade ambiental e desenvolvimento. In: Educao ambiental. So Paulo, 2005. p.59-84. - chapter in a book
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Abu Dhabi efforts in facing global warming challenges through urban planning
M. Alameri & G. Wagle
Masdar City, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Abstract
During the past few decades there has been a growing interest from governments, politicians, decision makers, urban planners and engineers to create sustainable communities planned as ideal built environments that provide communities with the highest quality of life style and standards with the lowest carbon footprint within a feasibly economic envelope. This interest is stirred from the recognition of the worlds resources decreasing in a way that the supplies do not match the demand as populations grow and industry spreads. Recent studies are referring to sustainable cities holding the key to climate change. The first of these developments or cities will be a catalyst for future change in understanding the creative science of urban planning. We acknowledge that cities are the outputs of political, economic, geographic and climatic, social and culture inputs. The answers revealed from building sustainable developments such as Masdar city in Abu Dhabi will be the data for forming the basis of future government policies for all developments in the region with similar circumstances and climate and social conditions. Keywords: global warming, climate change, temperatures, urban planning, sustainable developments.
1 Introduction
This paper explains how the Masdar Initiative has been conceptualized to be the test bed for technological advancements and setting the standards for sustainable urbanism. The Masdar City development is aimed at demonstrating the principles of sustainable development and shows how an integrated approach to master planning, transportation and infrastructure planning can produce a

sustainable integrated city where people can live in a safe and secure enhanced environment with reduced impacts which are experienced by inhabitants of traditional cities.
2 Global warming and climate change initiative

The definitions of Global Warming and Climate Change are very broad and vast and have different wordings from one scientist to another. Climate Change is often used interchangeably with the term Global Warming. However, for consistency, it is important to define the terms of use. Global Warming is generally explained as the increase in the average temperature of the Earths near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. Most of the observed temperature increase since the middle of the 20th century has been caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, which result from human activity such as the burning of fossil fuel and deforestation. Climate Change in common parlance, refers to any significant change in measures of climate such as temperature, precipitation, or wind lasting for an extended period decades or longer. Climate change may result from natural factors, such as changes in the suns intensity, natural processes within the climate system or human activities that change the land and atmospheres composition. The effects of global warming resulting in climate change have had a direct influence on mankind and its existence over centuries. Throughout its five billion year history, environmental change has been transforming the Earth. The records of environmental change are well explained, as revealed by data from various archives such as ocean sediments, ice cores, terrestrial deposits (such as glacial moraines and lake sediments), tree rings and historical and meteorological records. The dynamism of planet earth to adapt to environmental change is especially well illustrated by the changes that have occurred during the past three million years. During this period, cycles of climatic change have been dominant, involving fluctuations in global temperatures by as much as 10Celsius including warm episodes similar to those of the last ten thousand years. However, it is also the predominant truth that environmental changes have a tremendous impact on the natural ecosystem. The changes in natural ecosystem have had a direct influence on mankind, which are generally explained as the harmful effects. One of the predominant reasons for the negative effects is human activities that change the atmospheres composition through burning fossil fuels and land degradation through deforestation, reforestation, urbanization, desertification, etc. To alleviate these negative effects, it is very important to respond to climate change with positive measures such as mitigation to reduce emissions, adaptation to the effects of global warming, and geo engineering to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere or block incoming sunlight.
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3 Effects of global warming and climate change on Abu Dhabi

3.1 Background The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has an area of an approximately 777 sq.km; and a population of 5,671,112 according to the 2009 statistics. The political system of the UAE is based on the 1971 Constitution and comprises several intricately connected governing bodies. It is currently the thirty-sixth largest economy at market exchange rates, and has a high per capita gross domestic product, with a nominal per capita GDP of $46,584 as per the International Monetary Fund. The country is the fourteenth largest in purchasing power per capita and has a relatively high Human Development Index for the Asian continent, ranking 35th globally. Abu Dhabi is the largest of the seven emirates which constitutes United Arab Emirates. Abu Dhabi is the political capital of the UAE, positioned off the Arabian Gulf and in the middle of the Middle East. The population is only about 1.4 million people. 3.2 UAE and its transformations UAE has the worlds sixth largest oil reserves and is one of the most developed economies in the Middle East. The discovery of 10% of the worlds oil deposits provided an accelerator to bring a major, rapid transformation to his people in various fields housing, education, health care as well as other essential aspects and social services to the countrys nationals and expatriates. The prosperous nation bears responsibility to bring the very best, if not the best of the best to the inhabitants of the place. 3.3 Urban transformations and its impact The discovery of oil primarily in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi was a huge economic boost for the United Arab Emirates. The economic boost not only benefitted Abu Dhabi, but also benefitted the neighboring emirates with Dubai reaching the pinnacle of glory in terms of economic development and urban growth in 2008, before the global downturn. In its efforts to keep abreast with the growing economies of the world, UAE could not be left behind in terms of developmental pressures. In spite of its cautious approach, economic growth of UAE has led to a high influx of manpower which has impacted the scarce available resources. Much has been written about the countrys impressive stock of modern buildings, public and private, residential and non-residential, and the countrys infrastructure. Nevertheless, very little or in some cases hardly any documentation has been filed on the countrys construction industry and the process that was followed to create these facilities. Abu Dhabi has resisted the urge to exhibit its prosperity and has carefully planned its investments so as to ensure a deep connection with heritage; the environment and its people. Emirate of Abu Dhabi is a confluence of marine and desert environments. A balanced development of both these environments is the key to the success of

sustainable development of the emirate of Abu Dhabi. The urban settlements of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi are mainly concentrated on the Island area and the immediate vicinity of the island. The rest of the emirate of Abu Dhabi consists of fragile desert ecosystem which is mainly inhabited by the original local inhabitants. Rapid urbanization and its impacts are primarily concentrated in and around the island area, which felt the immediate impacts of urban transformations. The immediate impacts of global warming and climate change likely to affect Abu Dhabi are the rise in sea levels which is accelerating at an alarming pace. There is a plausible concern for sea level change that would actually raise the sea level above the current infrastructure that would imply flooding, essentially. Leading academics have warned that Abu Dhabi must invest in research and infrastructure if it is to combat the risk of flooding due to climate change. A report earlier this year by the Environmental Agency Abu Dhabi, entitled Climate Change: Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation, said that around 85 percent of the population and more than 90 percent of the infrastructure in the UAE was located within several meters of the shoreline, and in low-lying areas. It also stated that the potential exposure of the UAE, Abu Dhabi in particular, to the impacts of sea level rise given its current socioeconomic conditions in coastal areas is quite significant [1]. There were two solutions to the threat of rising sea levels: reduce carbon emissions by burning less fossil fuel or build walls around the perimeter of coastlines and migrate softly inland. David Holland, director of the Center for Atmosphere Ocean Science at New York University, quoted in Arabian Business The complexity of the problem is that you cannot solve regional sea level change issues until you solve the global one and once you get a handle on the global change then you can figure out what it implies for the region [1]. It is clearly evident that managing the impacts of sea level rises due to global warming will be the most important task in the next few years.
4 Role of government in influencing sustainable developments with specific reference to Abu Dhabi
Time and again, cities are blamed for the inadequate consumption of our natural resources due to the flaws of design and overlooking of basic factors that would make a significant difference in our planning and utilization of natural resources. However, Urban Planning of cities its not just related to resources and the environment but also should involve social, economic and political process for it to succeed. During the past few decades there has been a growing interest from Governments, Politicians, Decision Makers, Urban Planners and Engineers to create sustainable communities planned as ideal built environments that provide communities with highest quality of life style and standards with lowest carbon footprint within a feasibly economic envelope. This interest is stirred from the recognition of the fact that as urban growth increases, worlds resources are
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decreasing in a way that the supplies do not match the demand as populations grow and industry spreads. Sustainable Urbanism With the power of design and an emerging pattern of human settlements, holds the promise of strengthening the interdependence of all life on earth. Many progressive leaders now envision and champion a winwin balance between humanitys need, both social and economic, and those of nature. An increasing number of those leaders recognize the power of thoughtful urbanism to induce people to voluntarily live a more human powered and less resource intensive lifestyle. A small but fast growing number of leaders are now beginning to recognize opportunities to enhance the inherent sustainability of a walk able, diverse urbanism integrated with high-performance buildings and infrastructure [2]. The importance of environmental and ecological sustainability was well understood by the leadership of Abu Dhabi. Quoting the thoughts of Late Sheikh Zayed Bin Sultan Al Nahyan: We cherish our environment because it is an integral part of our country, our history and our heritage. On land and in the sea, our forefathers lived and survived in this environment. They were able to do so only because they recognized the need to conserve it, to take from it from it only what they needed to live, and to preserve it for succeeding generations. These thoughts clearly underline the thoughts of Abu Dhabis leadership and their keenness in promoting the sustainable development of Abu Dhabi. Abu Dhabi is committed to taking its part in the global effort to combat climate change. The Emirates leadership recognizes its responsibility to be a part of concerted international efforts to reduce the volume of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere through development of renewable energy, reducing demand for power and addressing the carbon produced by industry, utilities and transport. The government of Abu Dhabi has directly committed itself to strengthen and develop four key priority areas: Economic development. Social and human resources development. Infrastructure development and environmental sustainability. Optimization of Government operations. Developing appropriate infrastructure, while preserving the environment, forms one of the key priority areas.
5 Abu Dhabi plan 2030 and the initiative to promote sustainable developments
The Abu Dhabi Urban Planning Council which was created by Emiri Decree number 23 of the year 2007 and is the agency responsible for the future of Abu Dhabis urban environments, and the expert authority behind the visionary Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 Urban Structure Framework Plan published in September 2007. Chaired by His Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Chairman of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council, the Abu Dhabi Urban Planning Council defines the shape of the Emirate, ensuring

factors such as sustainability, infrastructure capacity, community planning and quality of life, by overseeing development across the city and the Emirate as a whole. The Abu Dhabi Urban Planning Council ensures best practice in planning for both new and existing urban areas. Abu Dhabi Urban Planning Council (UPC) is the driving force behind the initiate, drive and supporting Abu Dhabis urban development strategy. They have transformed Abu Dhabis 2030 Vision to physical settings, developing strategic development plans that create guiding principles which cascade over critical projects designed to shape the Emirate. The vision is built on a comprehensive analysis of the urban fabric, land availability and its best use, environmental issues, mobility, infrastructure and urban services that need to be integrated in the City Development Strategy. The environmental and ecological context for Abu Dhabis Urban Structure Plan is directed by three key elements: The reality of its landmass existing as an archipelago; Its position at the intersection of desert and coast; and The uniqueness of an abundance of fossil fuels [3]. With the expertise of the Abu Dhabi Urban Planning Council, the government will ensure the development of a professionally designed and well-managed urban environment in the Emirates towns and cities complete with world-class traffic and transport systems. The simultaneous development of the Regions is to keep pace with that of the Capital. It is also an important policy priority to achieve an Emirate-wide distribution of economic activities and associated benefits. The Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 Urban Structure Framework Plan [3], which offers a vision for the evolution of the city over the next 25 years, provides a blueprint for Abu Dhabis long-term success. As the first planning program of this kind and scope within the region, the work of the Urban Planning Council will become a best-practice benchmark for future urban design within the UAE and beyond.
6 Masdar city as an exemplar for sustainable development

6.1 Masdar initiative As the first major hydrocarbon-producing economy to take such a step, Abu Dhabi has established its leadership position by launching the MASDAR Initiative. The MASDAR Initiative driven by the Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Mubadala Development Company is a global cooperative platform for the open engagement in the search for solutions to some of mankinds most pressing issues energy security, climate change and the development of human expertise in sustainability. Abu Dhabi is leveraging its substantial resources and experience in global energy markets into the technologies of the future. One key objective of MASDAR is to position Abu Dhabi as a world-class research and development hub for new energy technologies, effectively balancing its strong position in an evolving world energy market. A related objective is to drive the commercialization and adoption of these and other technologies in sustainable
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energy, water conservation and waste management and in doing so; MASDAR will play a decisive role in Abu Dhabis transition from technology consumer to technology producer. The goal is to facilitate the establishment of an entirely new economic sector in Abu Dhabi around these new industries, which will assist economic diversification and the development of knowledge-based industries, while enhancing Abu Dhabis existing record of environmental stewardship and its contribution to the global community. Firmly networked into the global economy, these industries will transform Abu Dhabis economic role and will contribute to the development of national and regional economies. When that is accomplished, Abu Dhabi will then have completed its transition from a 20th century, carbon-based economy into a sustainable 21st century hightechnology economy. It will also be setting the pace as a global leader in the energy industry, in technology and in sustainability. Masdar Initiative signals a bold commitment to renewable energy and sustainable technologies that will enable the emirate of Abu Dhabi to remain a global energy industry leader to prepare its citizens for a post-oil future and help mankind find a development model that is sustainable. 6.2 Masdar city setting the standard for sustainable developments Masdar City is the physical embodiment of the Masdar Initiative. Fully rooted to the principles defined in Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 vision, Masdar City is committed to advancing Abu Dhabis drive towards a sustainable Arab capital that focuses on: Advancing renewable energy technologies Mitigating climate change Diversifying the economy Preparing Abu Dhabi for a clean energy future. Sustainable cities hold the key to climate change. The first of these developments or cities will be a catalyst for future change in the understanding the creative science of urban planning. The answers revealed from building sustainable developments such as Masdar City will be the data for forming the basis of future government policies for all developments in the region with similar circumstances and climate and social conditions. Aspiring to be one of the most sustainable communities on the planet, Masdar City not only embodies Abu Dhabis commitment to a sustainable future, it is the place where best practice in sustainable urban planning and development is being developed, tested and deployed. It provides an attractive environment for cleantech firms, academic institutions, research facilities, financial firms and other organizations to collaborate and develop new technologies and solutions. 6.3 Masdar city location and context Masdars development site of approximately 600 hectares supports sustainable planning considerations in terms its strategic location adjacent to the principal urban and regional transport infrastructure of Abu Dhabi. It is located between the principal access roads, Airport Road and Abu Dhabi-Dubai Road, linking

Abu Dhabi to the airport and to Dubai beyond. Further, its immediate adjacency to the international airport gives the Masdar development significant potential to become a strategic and emblematic gateway into Abu Dhabi. As such, the Masdar development has the capacity to be the first and parting emblem of Abu Dhabis sustainable development and environmentally sensitive socio-economic growth. 6.4 Masdar city master plan Conceptualized on the principles on One Planet Living, the master plan for Masdar City aims to establish the worlds first carbon neutral, zero waste desert community. It is rooted in a sense of place, shaped by the specific climate of Abu Dhabi. It is inspired by traditional desert settlements, which are compact and oriented so that the buildings provide shade and the narrow compact streets channelize cooling air currents. The project is an opportunity to start from scratch to actively minimize energy demand through the planning and orientation of the urban grid. In this way, it goes far beyond reducing the environmental impact of an individual building. Working at the scale of the integrated city, it addresses housing, education, work, transport and infrastructure, energy, water, and issues of density together, with the aim of achieving a carbon neutral, sustainable community. The goal of Masdar is to provide residents with the highest quality of life with the lowest environmental footprint. To achieve this goal the City is based on the principles of sustainable urban design: Low rise high density accommodation. Sustainable transportation. Dense Neighborhoods. Controlled spread of development [4]. The Masterplan proposes the use of current and emerging technologies at an unprecedented scale. 6.4.1 Urban design Masdar City is conceived as a modern Arabian city, with a focus on developing the sustainable technologies of the future. The master plan design relies on passive environmental controls, using the buildings orientation and compact form to reduce energy demand naturally. Masdar City is inspired by the first cities of the Middle East which were models of sustainable development and largely self-sufficient. Their fabric and orientation was dictated by locally available materials and the climate and more importantly, walk able cities. The compact city form to maximize shade and walk ability may have resulted into high density developments. Masdar City has adopted this model, rejecting the more recent model of urban planning that revolves around the personalized vehicle and the transportation network. The citys urban fabric is defined by two city squares the large square, approximately 225 Hectares and the small square, approximately 52 Hectares in size. The City squares are also characterized by linear parks which are oriented
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in the direction of wind movements and facilitate the wind movement through the city squares. The land surrounding the city squares contains photovoltaic farms, research fields, utility structures and recreation areas, allowing the community to be entirely self-sufficient. The buildings are low-rise and the development is completely integrated where residents find everything they need close to hand. 6.4.2 Transportation Masdar City is a true demonstration of the concept of sustainable transportation. Transportation plays a pivotal role in sustainability and truly efficient transportation walking, bicycling, and transit use is only possible where there is compact, urban form. In keeping with the form of traditional Arab communities, Masdar City incorporates narrow streets, shaded pathways and courtyards. These create an attractive, comfortable pedestrian environment and, at any point in the city, the nearest public transport link is conveniently within a 250 meter range. One of Masdars aims is to provide a test-bed for innovative concepts and systems, and this is demonstrated through the complete integration of walking and cycling with five public transport systems within and outside the city: The driverless Personalized Rapid Transit (PRT) system linking Masdar Institute to its car park. The orbital Group Rapid Transit (GRT) system that is positioned encircling the citys centres providing easy access to the citywide fabric. The LRT through the city providing access from outside and distribution within Masdar forms the spine of the city. The Metro that will provide a direct service into Masdar from Abu Dhabis CBD and other parts of Abu Dhabi city. The point-to-point premium service using electrically powered E-taxis for direct travel in the city for those who cannot or do not want to use the other systems. It is introducing a new age of public transport provision that offers a safe and clean way of reaching your destination. 6.4.3 Infrastructure In the industrialized world, buildings and the activities within them consume roughly a third of the energy we generate and produce a third of the carbon dioxide emissions. Together, the combination of buildings and infrastructure accounts for almost three quarters of the energy consumed in an industrialized society. A holistic approach is therefore needed, which looks at infrastructure and buildings in an integrated way to be effective, such an approach requires a bold political initiative. Masdar Citys energy strategy addresses demand as well as power generation and incorporates a range of strategies designed to promote a sustainable way of life. Once fully built, Masdar City will be fully powered by renewable energy, and solar power will satisfy the majority of energy required. The citys power needs will be substantially lower than conventional cities in the region. A 10MW

solar photovoltaic plant is already operational within Masdar City. In addition to solar energy, Masdar City is exploring the viability of geothermal, waste-toenergy and solar cooling technologies that use the power of the sun to run airconditioning units. Masdar Citys water needs will be less than half that of conventional cities in the region. To achieve this, the city employs a broad array of technologies to reduce water consumption, including high efficiency appliances, smart water meters and highly efficient irrigation systems. Wastewater will be treated at the citys wastewater treatment plant and treated water will be re-cycled for irrigation. Masdar City waste strategy aims at significantly reducing waste, encouraging a low-waste lifestyle through the reduction, reuse, recycling and recovery of waste materials. Most waste that cannot be recycled will be treated in a thermal treatment plant, where it can be converted to energy. Sustainable Urbanism is the need of the hour. The integrated design of landuse, transportation and infrastructure is the cornerstone of the principles of sustainable urbanism. Time is the essence in adopting the reforms of sustainable urbanism. Masdar City is a challenge requiring original thinking and advanced technological solutions, but it offers a compelling opportunity for a thorough scrutiny of the reforms for sustainable urbanism. Masdar City, as a fundamental component of the Masdar Initiative, needs to be understood as a long-term initiative that may challenge many principles informing conventional planning in order to establish a truly sustainable urban development. By embracing this challenge in such an extreme climate, the Masdar City aims at demonstrating the concepts of a sustainable development for both new and existing cities not only in the Middle East but around the world.
References
[1] Arabian Business; www.arabianbusiness.com [2] Farr, Douglas; Sustainable Urbanism: Urban Design with Nature; John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey; 2008 [3] Abu Dhabi Urban Planning Council; Plan Abu Dhabi 2030; Abu Dhabi Urban Planning Council; September 2007 [4] Foster+Partners; Detailed Masterplan for Masdar City; January 2008
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Primary sector waste indicators for regional planning

E. Cifrian, L. Prez, E. Dosal, J. Viguri & A. Andrs
Chemical Engineering Department, University of Cantabria, Spain
Abstract
Decisions are made based on information of different kinds and several tools have been developed to facilite the inclusion of environmental aspects in decision-making. One of these tools is the indicators that have become a vital component of environmental impact assessments and state of the environmental reporting. In Cantabria, a northern Spanish region, a specific set of indicators has been developed to monitor the degree of implementation of waste policies recently adopted in the region, identified in the Cantabria Regional Waste Plan 20102014. This Regional Planning covers all waste streams generated: There is a Regional Waste Plan developed through four Sectorial Waste Plans on: (i) Primary Sector and Sanitary Waste; (ii) Industrial, Construction and Demolition, and Mining Waste; (iii) Special Waste, and (iv) Municipal Waste. At the present time, the primary sector waste flows in Cantabria are outstanding, since it is a region where the primary sector is one of the driving forces of the economy together with the tourism. The 86% of municipalities are classified as rural or semirural, and there, it is producing a large rural development from traditional craft production to intensive farms in which waste management is becoming a problem. In this work the methodology developed by European Environmental Agency has been used as a starting point in developing a set of Specific Indicators on the primary sector waste. Eleven indicators have been developed to evaluate the generation and management of forest, agricultural, livestock and food industry waste. These indicators allow not only monitoring the primary sector waste management, but also they highlight the precarious situation in relation to knowledge of actions undertaken in the sector in relation to their waste and with

the information flows. Therefore, in this paper the analysis of difficulties for management the available information has been carried out. Keywords: environmental indicators, regional planning, rural development, waste management, primary sector.
1 Introduction
The region of Cantabria, in the north of Spain, has been traditionally an agricultural region. Due to various factors, including changes in production practices, this sector is currently in recession, but it is still significant in the region. The primary sector can impact on air quality, soil and water. Its activities generate waste streams from different sources: livestock, agriculture, forestry and food industry. These streams have a significant impact on the land and the rural landscape. The increased generation of these waste streams is caused by factors such as intensification (separating agriculture from livestock and increasing production), concentration (getting closer to consumer points) and specialization (focusing on few products). Therefore, the development of the sector and the introduction of hazardous materials in the production highlight the need to manage properly these waste streams. 1.1 Sectorial waste plan Different European and National regulations on waste implemented in last years and the elaboration of Cantabria Regional Waste Plan 2006-2010 were the context to create Sectorial Waste Sector Plans. They must be the regional reference for minimizing, reuse, recycling, energy recovery and disposal of waste in Cantabria, fixing specific management objectives for several waste streams (BOC [1]): Primary sector, health and veterinary services waste. Industrial, construction and demolition and mining waste. Special waste. Municipal waste. 1.2 Development of indicators sets Global progress towards sustainable development has originated the adoption of different sets of sustainability indicators which serve to provide information on specific environmental problems as a tool in decision-making (Aguirre [2]). The European Environment Agency (2005) defines the concept of indicator as a measure, generally quantitative, that can be used to illustrate and communicate complex phenomena in a simple way, including trends and progress over time (Smeets and Waterings [3]). Environmental indicators are generally used for the following key objectives (Aguirre [2]): - Provide information of environmental problems. - Summarize large amount of information in relevant indicators simplifying and harmonizing reports at various scales or levels.
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Monitor policies and setting priorities, identifying key factors of pressure on the environment. - Assess trends in relation to objectives and help define new ones. - Contribute to raising public managers on environmental issues. This study focuses on the evaluation of the Primary Sector Regional Waste Plan through development of indicators. For it, a exhaustive compilation of all available information related to primary sector waste is necessary, analyzing all sources, assessing their characteristics through "scoring" to show the difficulties for management the information and proposing future strategies through SWOT analysis.
2 Methodology
In order to obtain the indicators, a methodology has been developed. It consists of five stages: synthesis, development, application, interpretation and SWOT analysis (Cifrian et al. [4]). This methodology is shown on figure 1.
SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES SWOT ANALYSIS
SYNTHESIS - Policy question from objectives - Single indicator that answers the policy question
DEVELOPMENT - Search of Data Source - Assessment indicator (Scoring method) -Selecting indicator fact sheet information
APPLICATION - Calculation the indicator - Indicator fact sheet
INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS - Are we achieving the policies objectives?
Figure 1:
Methodology developed for obtaining the set of indicators.
Each stage consists of: a) Synthesis: Indicators selection begins raising a policy question related to a group of objectives. A single indicator that answers the question is obtained. b) Development: After establishing the indicators, a search of data sources is required. For this, it is necessary to make a preliminary analysis of all variables and data required of each indicator and develop a catalogue of them. Once developed the catalogue of sources, the potencial of development of these indicators are evaluated. This assessment shows the weaknesses associated with lack of available data and it is based on the theoretical conditions to be met by the indicators: - Relevant: Related to goals, objectives and priorities. - Reliable: Based on complete and accurate data. - Functional: Useful in decision-making. - Quantifiable: Measurable with relative ease. - Comparable: Obtained at different spatial and temporal scales.

Applying these criteria to define some questions (or sub-criterias) and providing a score depending on the answers, the viability and feasibility of the indicators can be labelled. Criteria, subcriteria and scores are shown in Table 1. Table 1:
CRITERIA Relevant
Criteria used to evaluate indicators.

Sub-criteria Scoring 0= No 1= Yes, indirectly 2= Yes, directly 0 = No data record 1 = Data obtained from various sources 2 = Data obtained from a single source 0= No 1= Interpretation requires prior knowledge 2= Direct interpretation 0= No 2= Yes 0= No 2= Yes 0= No data record 1= Estimates 2= Direct measurement 0= No data record 1= No, only data points 2= Complete data record 0= No 1= Qualitative link 2= Quantitaive link
Is the indicator related linked to policy targets, objectives or legislation?
Credible
Are data complete and accurate?
Functional
Could the indicator provide understandable information?
clear
and
Could the indicator provide information that is useful to policy decision? Are data easily accesible? Quantifiable Is the indicador based on direct or indirect measurements? Time series are available? Comparable Is the indicator linked with other indicators from the same Plan? Sources: (EEA [6]), (Viikari [7])
Table 2:
Interpretation of results: Icons.
If the indicator has a good trend, reaching the objectives. If data shows positive trends, approaching the targets, but not enough to get them. If data trend is away from the target. No data available or there is insufficient data to observe a trend.
After this evaluation, it is selected the indicator fact sheet information, containing the main characteristics, those that justify the choice of the indicator. It also specifies the characteristics of its data or the calculation method, its variables and the sources to obtain the information and how to manage it. c) Application: In this step, it is necessary to calculate specific variables such as rates or ratios. The progress over time is represented graphically and, then, an analysis is performed to define the trends. Both are included in the fact sheet which also includes information that can help to give an overview of the situation such as applicable laws or action lines.
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d) Interpretation of results: The results obtained must be compared with the proposed objectives in the Sector Plan. The level of achievement is represented by icons (Table 2). e) SWOT Analysis: SWOT is a classic strategic analysis tool for strategic management. It is the strategic adaptation between resources and capacity. SWOT integrates internal resources of an indicator (strengths/weakness) and external environment analysis (opportunities/threats) (Yang [8]). Table 3: Indicators associated with the proposed objectives.
OBJECTIVES - Adaptation of manure storage facilities. - Carrying out educational campaigns on the proper use of manure as fertilizer and agri-food, agricultural and livestock waste management. - Favouring the implementation of the Code of Good Agricultural Practice of Good Agricultural and Environmental Conditions and Statutory Management Requirements. - Getting participation of economic operators in waste management. - Establishing monitoring mechanisms to provide reliable and comprehensive information. - Increasing the use of biodegradable plastic. - Minimizing the generation of phytosanitary packaging waste. - Having enough land to value manure, or increasing its territorial base. - Improvement of the agronomic potential of manure. - Reusing 100% cheese whey. - Adjustment rules of the agri-food waste. - Establishing monitoring mechanisms to provide reliable and comprehensive information. - Adjustment rules for managing livestock and agricultural waste. - Implement the management model for cleaning and disinfecting containers and plastics for agricultural use. - Increasing recovery rate of phytosanitary packaging waste. - Establishing monitoring mechanisms to provide reliable and comprehensive information. - Increasing the recovery of residual forest biomass - Increasing the energy production from residual forest biomass. - Promoting the use of pellets as an energy source. INDICATOR 1. DEGREE OF ADAPTATION OF MANURE STORAGE FACILITIES 2. LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT OF EDUCATIONAL CAMPAIGNS OF PRIMARY SECTOR WASTE 3. DEGREE OF ECONOMIC OPERATORS PARTICIPATION ON THE WASTE MANAGEMENT 4. LEVEL OF USE OF BIODEGRADABLE PLASTICS 5. LEVEL OF GENERATION OF PHYTOSANITARY PACKAGING WASTE 6. RATE OF USEFUL LAND TO REUSE THE MANURE 7. RATE OF WASTE RECYCLING IN FOOD INDUSTRY 8. DEGREE OF IMPLEMENTATION OF MANAGEMENT MODELS 9. RATE OF RECOVERY OF PHYTOSANITARY PACKAGING WASTE 10. RATE OF RECOVERY OF RESIDUAL FOREST BIOMASS 11. RATE OF ENERGY PRODUCTION FROM RESIDUAL FOREST BIOMASS

Table 4:
SOURCE
Catalogue of data sources in the primary sector at different levels.

TYPE OF DATA Agriculture Indicators Agri environmental Indicators Agri-Waste Indicators Type of Waste or indicator Manure storage facilities Farmers training level Organics crop area Fertilizer consumption Area of organic farming Intensity of agriculture Agriculture production Area harvested Management of Water Resources in Agriculture Intensity of use of forest resources Waste generated in Agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry Fertilizer consumption Area of organic farming Environmental efficiency of agriculture Number of cattle Generation of phytosanitary packaging waste Number of cattle Distribution of the surface Organic production Number of cattle Economic aids to agricultural sector Studies and treatment of effluents and waste from cattle farms. Study of serum production in Cantabria, characterization, preservation and pretreatment. Status and prospects for management of whey generated in Cantabria. Regional Data SD SD SD SD SD PS
Level
EURO STAT International
SD
SD
SD
EEA
SD
SD
OECD
SD
SD
INE National MMA SIG ICANE RG
SD SD SD SD
SD SD -
PS SD -
Regional
CIFA
PS
Time coverage: Series of Data over time (SD) or Particular Studies (PS); Sources: European Environmental Agency (EEA [9]); Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD [10]); Spanish Institute of Statistics (INE [11]); Ministry of Environment of Spain (MMA [12]); Integrated Management Systems (SIG [13]); Institute of Statistics of Cantabria (ICANE [14]); Department of Rural Development, Livestock, Fisheries and Biodiversity of the Regional Government (RG); Center for Agricultural Research and Training (CIFA [15]).
3 Results and discussion

The synthesis step was applied with the objectives proposed in the Primary Sector Regional Waste Plan. Then, eleven indicators have been proposed, which are shown in Table 3.
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In order to develop indicators there is a need to find quantitative and qualitative information on the primary sector waste and contribute to the possible improvement of the management of this sector in the region of Cantabria. So first, a literature search of previous studies is required as an aid to focus the local problems. For that, it is necessary to elaborate a catalogue of the sources that manage data of the primary sector waste. Table 4 shows the major studios, projects, research and sources of data on waste managed by different agencies on different geographic levels. After this, the indicators were evaluated based on scoring method. The results of each indicator are included in table 5. The selected criteria have non automatic function to determine the feasibility of the indicators. Instead, provide the framework for asking questions and warn of the various properties of the indicators (Kurtz [16]). However, this evaluation allows determine the potential development of these indicators. That is, four of the indicators obtain more than 10 points, so these indicators have a high development potential. The other indicators obtained a score below 10 points, and therefore its development is more complex and will take a long term because the necessary data records should be created. The four most potential indicators, Level of use of biodegradable plastics, Level of generation of phytosanitary packaging waste, Rate of useful land to reuse the manure and Rate of recovery of phytosanitary packaging waste, have already been developed and they are detailed in tables 6, 7, 8 and 9 respectively. Table 5:
CRITERIA
Evaluation of indicators based of scoring method.

INDICATORS Sub-criteria 1 2 0 2 2 0 0 0 1 7 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 6 3 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 5 4 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 5 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 6 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 7 2 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 6 8 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 6 9 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 15 10 11 2 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 8 2 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 8
Relevant Credible
Functional
Quantifiable
Comparable
Is the indicator related linked to policy targets, objectives or legislation? Are data complete and accurate? Could the indicator provide clear and easy information? Could the indicator provide information that is useful to policy decision? Are data easily accessible? Is the indicator based on direct or indirect measurements? Time series are available? Is the indicator linked with other indicators from the same Plan? SCORE
12 13 13

Table 6: Factsheet information for the indicator 4.
I4: LEVEL OF USE OF BIODEGRADABLE PLASTICS This indicator is based on the use of biodegradable plastic by farmers in Description Cantabria compared to conventionally used plastics. Conventional plastics are polymers that persist in nature for long periods of time Environmental and generate large amounts of waste. For this reason it is proposed as a viable relevance alternative the use of biodegradable plastics. Department of Rural Development, Livestock, Fisheries and Biodiversity of the Data sources Regional Government of Cantabria The use of conventional plastics is estimated from the number of bales used for Methodology of ensiling of forage in Cantabria because this use is the largest volume of plastics consumed in the region. The use of plastics is estimated around 200,000 bales calculation annually with an average weight of 0.70 kg per bale. Data has been remained stable in recent years: CONVENTIONAL PLASTICS USE (Tonnes): 140 Progress over time BIODEGRADABLE PLASTICS USE (Tonnes): 0 Interpretation of results
Table 7:
Description
Factsheet information for the indicator 5.
I5: LEVEL OF GENERATION OF PHYTOSANITARY PACKAGING WASTE This indicator assesses the generation of phytosanitary packaging waste through the use of ecologic farming practices. Plant protection products contain substances classified as dangerous and it is necessary to take appropriate security measures and compliance with the doses Environmental and times indicated on the container security. The packaging waste obtained is usually impregnated with traces of the product. An ecological agricultural relevance practice avoids the use of these products, so that through the hectares for this agriculture, the reduction of the packaging generation can be estimated. Ministry of Environment (Spain) Data sources Methodology of The indicator is calculated as the number of hectares under organic farming and integrated production in Cantabria compared to total hectares of existing farms. calculation
Percentage of ecological farming practices 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 %
Progress over time
Cantabria agriculture is mainly oriented towards livestock, with a low presence of agriculture. For this reason the use of pesticides is much lower than in other parts of Spain and is very focused on the use of herbicides. The area used to ecological practices is still small, with a rate of 2.5%. As this data increases, the amount of generated packaging will be reduced. Interpretation of results
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Table 8:
Factsheet information for the indicator 6.
Description
I6: RATE OF USEFUL LAND TO REUSE THE MANURE This indicator looks at the amount of agricultural area that would be necessary to reuse the manure generated by livestock without causing environmental damage. Farms have traditionally used manure as agricultural fertilizer due to its high nutrient content. This management, mainly due to nitrate content of manure, contaminated soil on many occasions. It is a valid practice for small farms that have no surface problems using manure, but not for intensive and large farms that have not enough area for this. Therefore, a controlled management of this waste is required to prevent environmental degradation and reduce dumping waste without any control. For that, it is required to study the availability of land for livestock-farm manure, being necessary to ensure correct application rates to avoid soil contamination. Ministry of Environment (Spain) For its calculation, the data of available land is taken from the Yearbook of Statistics, Ministry of Environment. Also, the area required to take the manure is calculated from the number of cattle (also included in the Yearbook of Statistics of the Ministry of Environment), by charging rates of manure generation and content nitrogen. Once the genenerated amount of nitrogen is calculated, with the nitrogen application limit defined (by Directive 91/676/EEC on 170 kgN / ha / year), the amount of required area that would be needed in the region to absorb the amount of manure generated is calculated.
Surface to re use the manure 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Environmental relevance
Data sources
Methodology of calculation
Progress over time
60
58
56
40
36
48
40
37
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Required surface
Available surface
The temporal evolution obtained for this indicator shows that the required area to take the manure generated is less than the amount of existing area in Cantabria. The results shown in this indicator are at regional level and may not reflect the reality of some operations in some municipalities. Interpretation of results
Once developed the most promising indicators, it is necessary to conduct a SWOT analysis to study the current status of each one (Table 10).

Table 9: Factsheet information for the indicator 9.
I9: RATE OF RECOVERY OF PHYTOSANITARY PACKAGING WASTE This indicator measures the amount of packaging waste recovered compared to the total packaging waste generated in Cantabria. Description Environmental relevance Data sources Methodology of calculation As for the management of packaging of plant protection products is different depending on their content, distinguishing the empty containers that contain product packaging and unopened containers removed. SIGFITO an Integrated Management System (SIG) The indicator is derived by dividing the amount of packaging recovered and the amount of packaging consumed by farmers.
Amount of Re cove ry of Packaging Plant Protection 10 9 8,16 8,26 7,98 7,85 8 6,72 7 6 5 4 3 2 1,18 1,30 1 0,18 0,12 0,00 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Recovered packaging Packaging placed on the market
Progress over time
Cantabria agriculture is mainly focused on livestock, with a low presence of agriculture. For this reason, the use of pesticides, mainly herbicides, is much lower than in other regions of Spain. However, there is a difference between the amount of packaging recovered and the amount put on the market. This is due to the campaigns to collect them by the SIG has time and spatial constraints (short collection period and only 5 points to collect it in Cantabria). Interpretation of results
Tonnes
Table 10:
SWOT ANALYSIS Management Model Established Integrated Management Systems Existing Infrastructure (Recycling or treatment plants) Collection Points Subsidies/ Economic Aids Courses/ Training Progams Campaigns Specific Legislation Specific Waste Plan Autonomic Register Particular Studies
SWOT Analysis.
1 2 3 4 T O T 5 O Indicator 6 7 8 T T T T O O O W W S S T T T T 9 O O O T W W S 10 T T T O T T W W W 11 T T T T O T T W W W -
EXTERN ANALYSIS Opportunities (O) Threats ( T )
INTERN ANALYSIS Strengths (S) Weakness (W)
- - T O - O - O - O T - T - O T T T W - - W W W - - W W W W W - S S - - - -
- T T T W W W W W S -
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The analysis SWOT shows that there are more Threats (T) and Weakness (W) than Opportunities (O) and Strengths (S). In the future the lack of data for developing the indicators will be improved due to different ongoing activities: integrated management systems implementation, economic aids, educational campaigns and courses and particular studies.
4 Conclusions
In order to assess the situation of the waste produced by the primary sector in Cantabria, a set of indicators has been developed for evaluating the proposed objectives on the Primary Sector Regional Waste Plan 2010-2014. The methodology for the development of indicators consists of five stages, including synthesis, development, application, interpretation and SWOT analysis. As a result, eleven indicators related to flows of waste like manure, biodegradable plastics used in agriculture, phytosanitary packaging, residual forest biomass, and food industry have been obtained. After a specific analysis of sources of information some problems have been found. There are many statistics about agriculture and agri-environmental indicators and a lack of regional data about waste streams, although some punctual studies have been obtained. The availability of data for developing indicators has been evaluated through scoring method using different characteristics of indicators as relevance, credibility, functionality, quantifiable and comparability as criteria. The results obtained show that only four indicators obtain more than 10 points over 16 in the evaluation. The indicators developed are: (i) level of use of biodegradable plastics; (ii) level of generation of phytosanitary packaging waste; (iii) rate of useful land to reuse the manure; and (iv) rate of recovery of phytosanitary packaging waste. The SWOT analysis for each indicator shows the current situation and defines the required changes and modifications to comply with the new possibilities. Therefore it can conclude that the applied methodology is a tool for decisionmaking about Primary Sector Regional Waste Plan and can be useful to improve the data and sources of the indicators.
References
[1] BOC, Boletn Oficial de Cantabria, Decreto 15/2010, de 4 de marzo, por el que se aprueban los Planes Sectoriales de Residuos, (66), pp.12005-12198, 2010. [2] Aguirre, M.A., Los sistemas de indicadores ambientales y su papel en la informacin e integracin del medio ambiente. Libro de ponencias del I Congreso de Ingeniera Civil, Territorio y Medio Ambiente, Madrid, 2002. [3] Smeets, E. & Weterings, R., (eds). Environmental indicators: typology and overview. European Environmental Agency, Technical report no 25, p 19, 1999.

[4] Cifrian, E., Coz, A., Viguri, J & Andrs, A., Indicators for valorisation of Municipal Solid Waste and Special Waste. Waste Biomass Valor, (1), pp. 479-486, 2010 [5] Niemejer, D. & Groot, R., A conceptual Framework for selecting environmental indicator sets. Ecological Indicators, (8), pp.14-25, 2008 [6] European Environment Agency, The IRENA indicator report: Agriculture and environment in EU-15, 2005 [7] Yli-Viikari, A., Evaluating agri-environmental indicators (AEIs)Use and limitations of international indicators at national level. Ecological Indicators (7), pp.150163, 2007 [8] Yang, Y., SWOT-TOPSIS Integration Method for Strategic Decision, International Conference on E-Business and E-Government, 2010. [9] EEA, European Environment Agency, www.eea.europa.eu/es [10] OECD, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, www.oecd.org [11] INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadstica, www.ine.es [12] MMA, Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Medio Rural y Marino, www.marm.es [13] SIG, Sigfito Agroenvases, http://www.sigfito.es [14] ICANE, Instituto Cntabro de Estadstica, www.icane.es [15] CIFA, Centro de Investigacin y Formacin Agrarias, www.cifacantabria.org [16] Kurtz, J., Jackson, L.E. & Fisher, W.S., Strategies for evaluating indicators based on guidelines from the Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development. Ecological Indicators, (1), pp. 4960, 2001.
51
Promoting sustainable development in the minerals industry: the phosphate project in Saudi Arabia
M. Aldagheiri
Department of Geography, Qassim University, Saudi Arabia
Abstract
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is largely considered to be a single-commodity economy in that the oil sector is the most important pillar of the national economy while the non-oil sectors play a relatively weak role. National economic diversification is considered a strategic goal for the Saudi Arabian government. The minerals sector in Saudi Arabia is one of the economic activities which has already started to achieve this strategic goal of diversification away from oil-related activities as the main source of national income. Saudi Arabia has strategic industrial minerals such as phosphate, bauxite, high-grade silica and gypsum as well as industrial raw materials that can be used in the domestic, regional and overseas markets. The industrial minerals sector in Saudi Arabia recognises sustainable development as a vital objective for society and readily acknowledges its responsibility for helping to achieve this critical aim. This paper examines the phosphate project which is considering one of the industrial minerals important to the economy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, focusing on its production, the structure of its industry and the effects of government policies and planning efforts. Keywords: industrial minerals, phosphate, sustainable development, Saudi Arabia.
1 Introduction
National economic diversification is considered a strategic goal for the Saudi Arabian government particularly when the exportable natural resources are expected to deplete in the foreseeable future. The minerals sector in Saudi Arabia is one of the economic activities that has already started to achieve this strategic

goal of diversification away from oil-related activities as the main source of national income. Although non-oil mineral activities are far less significant than oil activities, their development has the potential to contribute to the economic diversification of the Saudi economy. Exploration and development of nonhydrocarbon mineral resources has, therefore, been a consistent objective of the government throughout successive Development Plans. The territory of the Kingdom contains abundant strategic minerals such as phosphate and bauxite, as well as industrial raw materials that can be used in the domestic, regional and overseas markets after processing. The diversified geological terrain, strong economy and strategic location of Saudi Arabia in the GCC countries are among the most fundamental features attracting investment in the mineral industry. Furthermore, it is hoped that this sector will become a major source of revenue generation for the Kingdom during the next decade. New mines and associated investments will also create employment opportunities in the Kingdom.
2 The importance of study

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is largely considered to be a single-commodity economy, in that the oil sector is the most important pillar of the national economy, while the non-oil sectors play a relatively weak role. National economic diversification is considered a strategic goal for the Saudi Arabian government. The minerals sector in Saudi Arabia is one of the economic activities which has already started to achieve this strategic goal of diversification away from oil-related activities as the main source of national income. Saudi Arabia has strategic industrial minerals such as phosphate, bauxite, high-grade silica and gypsum as well as industrial raw materials that can be used in the domestic, regional and overseas markets. The industrial minerals sector in Saudi Arabia recognises sustainable development as a vital objective for society and readily acknowledges its responsibility for helping to achieve this critical aim. This paper examines the Al Jalamid phosphates project which is considering one of the industrial minerals important to the economy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, focusing on its production, the structure of its industry and the effects of government policies and planning efforts.
3 The phosphates in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is home to some of the largest phosphate deposits in the world. These deposits are located mostly in the north and north-western regions in a belt stretching across the entire northern section of the Kingdom (see map 1). The phosphate rock is hosted in a sedimentary sequence of Paleocene to Eocene age that extends to the north into Iraq and Syria and west into Jordan. The phosphate reserves are part of a shelf sequence of rocks that marks the edge of the Tethys Sea, an ocean in past geological time that is now occupied by the Mediterranean and the countries surrounding its shores. It is the largest and most extensive phosphate province in the world [1].
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Map 1:
Non-metallic minerals in Saudi Arabia.
According to Maadens President, Dabbagh [2], the Kingdoms phosphate is estimated at 3.1 billion tons, of which 1.6 billion tons is an estimated reserve, with 1.5 billion tons as a mineable resource. In addition to the Al-Jalamid Mine Project, there is an estimated 313 million tons of phosphate ore reserve extending for an area of 18 km2. Spencer [3] stated that with private sector investment, Saudi Arabia can exploit the produced phosphate locally to consolidate its position as third ranked exporter of fertilizers in the world. Also, DMMR anticipates that the country will capture 16 per cent of the world phosphate market. Identified future markets for phosphate include China, India, Japan, Pakistan, and Iran. Phosphate accumulations in Saudi Arabia are known in four regions: SirhanTurayf, the coastal Red Sea, and the central and eastern Regions. Deposits with economic potential have been established in the Sirhan-Turayf region that extends into Jordan, southern Iraq and Syria but in the others further work is not justified. Sedimentary phosphorite was first identified in Saudi Arabia in 1965 in the Turayf area during drilling for water wells by ARAMCO close to the Tapline, about 70 kilometers to the east of Turayf city. In the same year, reconnaissance mapping led to another discovery of a phosphate bed in the Thaniyat-Turayf area, 250 kilometers southwest of Turayf. In 1988, the Sannam deposit was discovered by the US Geological Survey (USGS) and Deputy Ministry For Mineral Resources (DMMR). Furthermore, continued exploration works indicate prospects for other resources in Widyan Ar-Rushaydah, Amud and Al-Fihah areas [4].

Al Jalamid phosphates are considered to be the best explored and largest deposit in the Kingdom, and are located about 120 kilometers east-southeast of Turayf city. Since the discovery of the deposit in 1984, DMMRs work has advanced from the exploration phase to a feasibility study which was completed in late 1992. The Al-Jalamid deposit is estimated to contain 313 million tons of mineable resource. Maaden expects the Al-Jalamid deposit to have an annual yield of 11 million tons/year for 27 years, including 4.5 million tons of phosphate concentrates [5]. Al Jalamid phosphate is the largest single project for the Maaden planners and is centered on a world-class deposit of phosphates. This resource could become a significant new source of exportable fertilizer in the form of dominium phosphate (DAP), which contains double the nutrient value of unprocessed rock. This is a big project which would require the establishment of infrastructure for mining, processing and transport. Maaden estimates that the deposits within its exploration programmes will lead to the establishment of a phosphate industry and a number of downstream industries in the Kingdom. Maaden views the phosphate resources of Al-Jalamid as a nucleus around which a number of industrial projects can be established. Another resource prospect for phosphate mining in the Kingdom is the Umm Wual area, situated around 70 kilometers west of the Al-Jalamid deposit. This deposit was under extensive exploration indicating promising techno-economical potential with estimated reserves of about 208 million tons of phosphate deposits. Maaden, through international qualified consultants, has conducted the ore reserve evaluation and ore beneficiation and processing tests on both lab and pilot scales with objectives to assess the proven reserves, confirm the ore amenability to beneficiation and chemical processing and optimize its industrial flow sheets. The findings of these studies will be included in a feasibility study and utilized to identify local or foreign joint venture partners to develop this site. Relying on the Saudi Geological Survey (SGS), the Sanam phosphate beds correlate with the Thaniyat member of the Jalamid Formation and consist of two units. The area has not yet been explored in detail, but a resource study in 1999 showed a demonstrated resource of 23 Mt averaging 16.91 per cent. A particular attraction of Sanam is its relative proximity to the Red Sea, 250 kilometers, in contrast to the 1,000 kilometers distance from Al Jalamid to the Arabian Gulf. Thaniyat phosphate occurs at several levels in the Thaniyat Member at the base of the Jalamid Formation. Part of the Thaniyat area was explored under licence by Granges International Mining in 1977-81. Al Amud phosphate beds of the Arqah Phosphorite Member in the Al Amud area are largely covered by basalt and have been explored by only 27 drill holes. In the Quraymiz Area there are two thin and low-grade phosphorite bed outcrops in an escarpment for about 20 kilometers in the Quraymiz area. Six drill holes show no development of phosphorite beds to the north. Moreover, there are several areas in the Kingdom such as the Red Sea region (Maqna massif, Azlam trough and Usfan Area), Central region and Eastern region.
55
4 Al Jalamid phosphates project

This project lies in the northern part of the Kingdom, about 120 kilometres eastsoutheast of Turayf city. The feasibility study for this project was prepared by the Maaden-Saudi Oger consortium and S.N.C. Lavalin of Canada and Jacobs of the U.S., and this study includes according to Abdullah S. Busfar, vicepresident for corporate projects [6] The project consists of a phosphate mine and a beneficiation plant at Al-Jalamid, in Northern Saudi Arabia, a fertilizer production complex at Ras Az Zawr, on the shore of the Arabian Gulf. The feasibility study indicates that the Al Jalamid phosphate is estimated to contain 313 million tons of phosphates able to provide sustained production for at least 27 years. Also, the feasibility study indicates that 11 million tons of Al Jalamid phosphate will be mined annually, upgrading the concentration of ore to 32 per cent to produce 4.5 million tons of phosphate concentrates. This project is considering the largest single project that is occupying the thinking of Maaden planners is centered on a world-class deposit of phosphates. This resource could become a significant new source of exportable fertilizer in the form of dominium phosphate (DAP), which contains double the nutrient value of unprocessed rock. This is a big project and its location in the northern undeveloped part of the country would require the establishment of infrastructure for mining, processing and transport [7]. Maaden assessed the mining plan at the Al Jalamid project to optimize equipment utilization. The deposits will be exploited by drilling and blasting, while draglines will remove the overburden and front-end loaders. Maaden also will provide the Al Jalamid project with a basic infrastructure, in that the energy for the project will be made available via turbine generators fired by fuel oil, with an installed capacity of 28 megawatt. Three water wells drilled and tested at the Al Jalamid site prove a sufficient water resource exists for the life of the project and hydrological modelling of the underlying Tawil aquifer has revealed a sustainable flow rate of 13 million cubic metres per year [8]. The initial plan for this project is to mine and beneficiate phosphate rock. The phosphate rock will then be transported via the North-South Railway (NSR) to the industrial city of Ras Az Zawr for conversion into dominium phosphate (DAP) fertilizer for export. The DAP export is expected to be phased into the market by 2013 to reach about 3 million tons per year. The Ras Az Zawr site is about 60 kilometres north of Jubail Industrial City on the Arabian Gulf. Ras Az Zawr is a huge new industrial centre designed to serve the Kingdoms emerging minerals sector and has an $8 billion investment which will comprise the industries of the phosphate and aluminum projects. The main elements of the industrial centre at Ras Az Zawr will be three 4.1 million tons per year sulphuric acid plants, three 1.4 million tons per year phosphoric acid plants, and one 650,000 tons per year ammonia plant, to produce about 2.9 million tons per year dominium phosphate. The basic infrastructure of the industrial centre will include accommodation and utility services, port facilities, a 1,800 megawatt power plant, sub-stations and switchgear plus a dedicated port for Panamax-sized ships of up to 60,000 tons. In a press conference after the

inauguration, Ali Al-Naimi, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources and Chairman of Maaden Board of Directors, asserted that Maaden will build one of the first Mining Cities in the Middle East that will accommodate in one site all basic facilities for the production of mineral industries from mine to final product. He noted that the city will contribute in a unique manner to the growth of Saudi Arabias Mining Industry [9]. The estimated cost of the phosphate projects at Ras Az Zawr is around $1.9 billion, plus additionally about $400 million to develop the mines at the Al Jalamid site. In an interview the President of Maaden Dr. Al-Dabbagh said that the availability of molten sulphur and natural gas from within the Kingdom as a feedstock alongside the local phosphate rock will make it a highly competitive integrated production facility within easy reach of growing Asian markets. Maaden intends to use the phosphate rock in the production of a number of value added products, such as fertilizers, chemicals, animal feed, and detergents. After the dominium phosphate plant reaches peak production in five years time, Saudi Arabia will be in direct competition with producer countries such as Morocco, Jordan and the USA, as it will produce a quarter of the worlds DAP production. Furthermore, Al-Naimi [10] said in that the phosphate fertilizer project will boost the Kingdoms non-oil exports and make the Kingdom the third largest producer of phosphate fertilizer in the world. In general, the development of the Al Jalamid phosphate project relies on the following comparative advantages: - availability of abundant low-cost energy in the form of petroleum and natural gas products; - availability of ammonia at competitive prices in Jubail; - availability of abundant sulphur in Jubail; - geographic proximity of the Jubail complex to the Asian markets; - market opportunities following the decline of production in Florida which has decreased by one third during the past decade; and - approval of the necessary transport link between the Al Jalamid phosphates deposits and Ras Az Zawr. Based on Maaden the development initiation of Al-Jalamid integrated phosphate project will be beneficial due to the following: 1. Maintain the Kingdoms future export capability through diversification of its products where the huge phosphate resources will play a major element; 2. Provide employment opportunities to Saudi work force, which is expected to directly employ about 6,000 personnel; 3. Indirect benefits to Saudi work force and institutions through related industrial and social services about 40,000 personnel; 4. Enhancing urban development in the Northern Region; 5. Provide a transfer of technology in the field of phosphate fertilizers and other related chemical industries; and 6. Enhancing foreign capital investment.
57
5 Conclusion
Regarding the significance of the minerals industry, the case study has shown that the mining sector has great potential to play a leading role in the Sustainable development and the diversification of the Saudi economy due to the Kingdoms enormous and relatively untapped mineral occurrences, large area (more than 2,000,000 square kilometres) and the increasing demand for raw materials both in domestic as well as international markets. The minerals industry in Saudi Arabia, which includes phosphate, will become one of the main activities attracting foreign investment, and during the next decade it is hoped will be one of the causes of considerable economic growth in the region and the country. The minerals sector will become a third pillar of the economy after hydrocarbons and petrochemicals. The mineral industry will also have several positive effects on the national economy, such as constituting a source of additional revenue for the government, increasing exports and contributing to export diversification, creating new opportunities for the creation of industrial activities in the Kingdom. Al Jalamid phosphates will play a major role in the Kingdoms future exports. This project will enhance urban development in the Northern Region of the Kingdom. The phosphate industry provides a transfer of technology in the field of phosphate fertilizers and other related chemical industries. According to Maadens estimates the phosphate fertilizer, with encouraging economic indicators, would make the Kingdom the worlds third largest producer of phosphate fertilizer. According to Maaden the minerals industry will create employment opportunities which will generate 6,000 direct jobs and 40,000 indirect jobs for Saudi citizens who will work in the building and operating of the industry and associated projects.
References
[1] Maaden, Exploration, Mining and Processing, Maaden Magazine, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 2004. [2] Dabbagh, A, Saudi Arabia to Offer Gold Mining Licenses to Foreign Firms, Maaden News Letter, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 2004. [3] Spencer, H., Industrial Minerals of Saudi Arabia and their Uses in New Material, Internal Report, Jeddah: DMMR, 1999. [4] DMMR, The developing of Mineral Exploration in The Kingdom, Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia (in Arabic), 1999. [5] USABC, The Mining Sector in The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Report, U.S. - Saudi Arabian Business Council, 2005. [6] Busfar, A., Maaden to Build the Largest Phosphate Plant in 2005, Arab News, March 01, 2005. [7] Maaden, Exploration, Mining and Processing, Maaden Magazine, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 2004.

[8] Maaden, Phosphate: Fertilizer for the future, Maaden News Letter, Issue 3, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 2003. [9] Maaden, Al-Naimi Inaugurates Mining City Civil Works, Maaden News Letter, Issue 4, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 2005. [10] Al-Naimi, A., $4.1b Phosphate Ventures Open to Foreign Investors, the Saudi Gazette - March 28, 2004.
59
Towards a sustainable system: application of temporal analysis on flood risk management

Z. Alsaqqaf & H. Zhang
Griffith School of Engineering, Griffith University, Australia
Abstract
The escalating frequencies and changing patterns of climate change impacts, such as precipitation rates and sea levels, question the reliability of the existing engineering infrastructure, in terms of design and planning criteria for which designers and decision makers need to or account for. The objective of this paper is to assess the performance of an existing engineering infrastructure by measuring three variables: Vulnerability (), Reliability (), Resiliency (). These variables will be implemented temporally to a floodplain catchment, where performance and engineering sustainability can be depicted. The depiction will define the systems behaviour upon a natural event such as precipitation or sea-level rise. Nevertheless, Flood Risk Index (FRI), which depends on (, and ), will be applied as an overall index to demonstrate the trend context as well as give implications of the sensitivity significance of , and . The main outcome of this paper is to depict the relative sustainability or as known as the performance assessment indicators temporally; and to examine the correlation between the indicators on a real-flow data. These procedures shall ultimately provide implications on the implementation of the indicators to achieve a relatively sustainable system. Keywords: reliability, vulnerability, resiliency, flood risk index, sustainability, performance assessment.
1 Introduction
In the last decade, more frequent storms and sea level rises have been observed and monitored in Australia due to climate change especially southeast Queensland; which results in the increase of floods in many areas that already prone to flood. Consequently, new floodplains will emerge to cope with such an

impact, placing assets like humans and properties at risk. The escalating impact of climate change in Australia makes it necessary to reassess existing flood protection systems and to assess the need for new ones in areas that were not previously at risk from floods. In flood prone areas, having an adequate flood protection system in place is essential to lives and livelihood of residents and businesses in the area. In addition, catchments in coastal areas are prone of flooding due to cyclones and severe storms. In face of increased flood potential due to climate change, it is essential that the current system of structural flood inhibitors be examined to make certain that they offer the maximum protection for the predicted future flood scenarios. One of the examination tools that can be used is performance assessment. The purpose of this paper is to assess the performance of a floodplain catchment. In a way, to depict the behaviour of the system under a flood event temporally. The paper will examine the feasibility of applying the performance assessment , or as known as the engineering relative sustainability indices, which are: Vulnerability (), Reliability (), Resiliency (), as well as an overall index called Flood Risk Index (FRI). Sustainability plays an important role in the advancement of modern societies. it has become an inevitable factor in enhancing the implementation of an efficient strategic development and planning. Consequently, governments and city councils start to merge sustainability in their existing and future visions. In addition, many scholars have illustrated a constructive argument on a feasible definition of sustainability. Yet, they all hover under the umbrella of a continuous validity of a healthy development that perpetuates a long life status without confronting the needs of future generations as illustrated in many studies [13]. Engineering sustainability, as the name implies, is a characteristic of an engineering system that provides a self maintained robust system, which assures a quality standard for the demanded service and overcomes the deterioration factors that influences the engineering system over time [4]. Ultimately, it should lead to a different type of approach that will assist in solving current and future challenges on the engineering infrastructure. Hence, it is necessary that the performance of an engineering system constantly tested and evaluated to cope with such challenges. One method can quantitatively measure the engineering sustainability called relative sustainability or as known as the performance assessment indicators of an engineering system [5]. Similarly, according to Loucks [1], there are three commonly used indicators to measure engineering relative sustainability: reliability, vulnerability and resiliency. In other words, they provide the reflective behaviour of a system under defined impact or influence. Basically, so far, these indicators were measured subjectively. However, this paper is in the first phase of rallying towards measuring these indicators objectively and accurately than the predecessor methodologies in the sustainability or performance assessment filed. Moreover, this paper is intending to implement the engineering relative sustainability, or as known as performance
61
assessment indicators, on a real-flow data temporally to test the behaviour of the indicators.
2 Performance assessment and flooding

According to one of the pioneer studies of engineering performance assessment (Hashimoto et al. [5]), there are three main indices that actually characterise the performance assessment of a system: reliability, vulnerability and resiliency. The performance measurement of an engineering system has been described by Moy et al. [6] as the ability of a system to deliver the targeted demand. As an illustration, they have applied performance assessment on a water supply reservoir by measuring three performance indices, reliability, vulnerability and resiliency. Where, the ability to supply the needed target release is referred to as reliability. And, the maximum shortfall form the targeted release, referred to as vulnerability. Also, the number of consecutive periods of deficit is referred to as system resilience [6]. These three measurement parameters constitute the most common performance measures of a reservoir system. Following the work of Hashimoto [5], there have been several applications in the criteria of performance assessment. Datta and Houck [7] have applied performance assessment on different problem areas in the water resources field. They have compared multiple operation strategies reflecting the relative importance of divergence from targets for reservoir release versus reservoir storage divergence. Then, Weeraratne et al. [8] applied the reliability, resiliency and vulnerability to estimate reservoir release polices corresponded to different target flow levels at failure or critical points in the system. Nevertheless, Moy et al. [6] examined the trade-offs between reliability, resiliency and vulnerability in the context of reservoir operation for water supply using a multi-objective mathematical model. After that, Burn and Simonovic [9] have introduced an improved real-time operation model for reservoirs, that utilises the trade-off between flow predict reliability and the performance of the reservoir operation. The performance goal of any reservoir system is to reduce the shortfall, resulting in decreased vulnerability. The greater farther the maximum shortfall; the greater the vulnerability. Likewise, the shorter the maximum length of deficits, the greater the resilience. Using mixed-integer linear programming, a trade-off was found between reliability, vulnerability, and resilience. As the reliability increases or the maximum length of consecutive shortfalls decreases, the vulnerability of the system to greater deficits in supply increases. These relationships are inversely proportional to some degree, depending on the system [6]. On a similar point of view, Simonovic et al. [10] have simply defined the three performance indicators: as reliability is the likelihood of system failure, vulnerability is used to describe the severity of the failure and resiliency measures how quickly the system recovers from the failure state. Scientists and researches up to the year 2000 have applied performance assessment to examine water supply reservoirs as part of the engineering infrastructure. However, Simonovic [11] has introduced the first application of

performance assessment on flood protection systems. Then, followed by a collaborative work of Simonovic and Li [12] to establish a methodology in implementing performance assessment on flood protection systems under the effect of climate change and supported by system dynamics. After that, Elbaroudy and Simonovic [13] have enhanced a methodology to evaluate the performance of water resource system using fuzzy sets, as well as the performance indicators. Nevertheless, Ahmad and Simonovic [14] have applied the Geographic Information System (GIS) and fuzzy analysis to simulate the water resource system spatially and temporally. Finally, Simonovic [15] illustrated a new method for spatial and temporal analysis of risk in water resources management. Apparently, all the previous benchmark researches mentioned above have set a profound and respectable foundation in evaluating and assessing the performance of a system. Yet, it exposed a gap in the compatibility between the phases of evaluation throughout their phases of methodology. In addition, there was a complication in defining the avenues of a systems failure status, and classifying the spectrum of the acceptable range in a system. In summary, designing a failure free system is next to impossible. Even the best system designs are susceptible to fail. In the case of flood protection systems, it is difficult to predict the impacts that natural forces will place on the system. Even the best-designed system can be inundated by extremes from nature, causing ultimate system failure. Therefore, as a decision maker the performance assessment indicators should reveal the reliability, resiliency, vulnerability and FRI must be applied to examine the robustness of the existing systems, as well as it should be considered as an essential planning and designing factor not just for floodplain catchments, but for any engineering infrastructure system. The terms reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability were typically applied to water supply systems including water reservoirs. Yet, the problem addressed by this paper is not one of supply, but one of deterrence. The system will be modelled and tested with the goal of impeding water from reaching communities and populations within the catchment. Developing a system that can accurately describe the ability of the flood deterrence system to prevent damage and injury to persons living in the flood plain, as well as human assets is the purpose of this paper. The same terms used to describe the reliability of a water supply system can be applied to a water deterrence (protection) system as well. All the performance indicators will be elaborated in the following sections. 2.1 Reliability The reliability of a system can be defined as the satisfactory state. Also, it can be expressed as the probability that a system is operating in a satisfactory state at any given time. Inversely, the reliability can refer to the probability that no failure occurs within a given amount of time [5]. The reliability which is considered the opposite of risk is defined in eqn (1) as:
N
(1)
63
At the time ti ,
1,if 0,if
where is the reliability. z i is the state of the flood control system at the time ti , is the water level at time ti, is the reference water level at time ti , and N is the maximum number of time intervals. For the present research, the failure state is considered to be at the time when the water level exceeds both catchment and river channel capacity on the entire grid of study domain. In other words, failure occurs when water depth exceeds the capacity depth of the catchment or river channel. Not to mention, zi is a count function of xi and xref [12]. 2.2 Vulnerability Vulnerability basically means measuring the extent of the failure. It is simply defined as the difference between the reference and calculated values of a certain variable including water depth [12]. This can be used to measure the overall impact that flood have on the overall functional ability of a flood protection system as shown in eqn (2). For yearly basis at time ti : 0, , (2)
where is the vulnerability. In addition the statistical vulnerability is defined in eqn (3),
and
X .
(3)
where is the mean vulnerability, f is the counter of failure states, Nf is the total number of failure states during the operating period, and is the normalized mean vulnerability. As for this paper, the failure state will be all water level values (xi) more than the catchment level (xref). 2.3 Resiliency Resiliency describes how quickly the system is likely to recover once a failure occurs [5]. In the event of a failure, it is important that a system is able to recover quickly and return to a state of stability. This can be expressed in eqn (4). (4)
where i s the resiliency, M is the maximum number of consecutive time intervals of failure state in a year, Ns is the number of days in a year and, N f is the number of failure state time intervals in a year.

The application of the resilience equation will indicate the historical behaviour of the system. However, by plugging in climate change simulated and projected data, it should signify the expected behaviour in the future. 2.4 Flood risk index (FRI) Zongxue et al. [16] have stated that FRI is an overall behaviour indicator that uses a weighted function of reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability to assess the flood risk potential for an area. It combines all three performance indicators in one equation as illustrated in eqn (5). This method takes into account, not only if a flood is likely in an area, but also how severe it may be and how long it may take to recover [16]. in which 1. 0 (6) where P is the flood risk index, is the reliability, is the vulnerability, is the resiliency and 1, 2, 3 are predetermined weights. For the time being, it will be assumed that every predetermined weight is the same as in eqn (6). . 1 . 1 . (5)
3 Case study
The intention of this case study is to test the indicators on a real flow data to depict the behaviour of the performance assessment (relative sustainability) indices. Fig. 1 shows the trial daily flow data for a site in southeast Queensland, Australia. The daily flow data is dated from 1928 to 1960.
0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 0
Flow (m/s)
0.5
1.5
2.5 x 10
4
Date Position (Daily)
Figure 1:
Daily flow data (m3/s).
65
The calculations of the indicators were based on the flow data above. Fig. 2 shows the deduced values of the performance assessment indicators after the substitution for eqns (1), (2), (3), (4), (5), (6). It is notable that all the indicators have the results between 0 and 1, which it can be also represented in a percentage form. The reliability indicator as shown in fig. 2 demonstrates the satisfactory or no failure state in a given event. Explicitly, it behaves the opposite of the vulnerability indicator. 1 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 1928 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1928 1 1938 Date (year) 1948 1958 1938 Date (year) 1948 1958
Resiliency ()
Vulnerability ()
Reliability ()
0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 1928 1938 Date (year) Figure 2: Performance assessment indicators. 1948 1958

The representation of the performance assessment showed a consistent relationship with the flow data tested. For example, when looking at the dip of year 1955 on the reliability and resiliency trend, one can note that the vulnerability showed a spike in the same event. In the same time, the resiliency trend showed a significant sensitivity, due to a longer consecutive failing state. Apparently, the indicators have behaved as expected. They have shown a proportional correlation between the water level and the vulnerability index as well as the FRI index. Also, they have shown an inverse correlation between the water level and the reliability and resiliency indices. As a matter of fact, FRI illustrates a combined indicator of all of the three performance assessment indices as presented in fig. 3. The main objective of this indicator is firstly, to identify the sensitivity of each indicator. Secondly, to calibrate and verify the results according to the site studied. Thirdly, to set the acceptable risk ranges, which are the highest and lowest ranges that the decisionmaker deems to be acceptable. 1 0.8
FRI
0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1928 1933 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958
Acceptable Ranges Figure 3:
Date (year)
Flood risk index.
The acceptable risk ranges shown in fig. 3, depends on the definition of failure, perception of risk and the applied constrains such as budget available. Consequently, by setting these ranges, the indicator is capable of providing implications for flood risk management, in such an optimum plan or design can be achieved.
4 Conclusion and future work

This paper is the first part of a project series in implementing the performance assessment indicators to evaluate the sustainability of an engineering system as well as indentifying the risk significance in the case of flooding. However, the main purpose of this paper is to illustrate the risk incurred from an increase of the water level above the catchment level. And, to depict temporally the indicators behaviour.
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The performance assessment (relative sustainability) indicators have been applied and tested on a real flow data. The results have shown a proportional correlation between the water level and the vulnerability, as well as the FRI index. Also, it showed an inverse correlation between the water level and the reliability and resiliency indicators. Speaking of future work, it is intended to apply the performance assessment indicators temporally and spatially. It will involve a 2-dimontional hydraulic simulation to enhance the accuracy of the indicators, and to overcome limitations that involve subjectivity and ambiguity in identifying risk in an engineering system. Nevertheless, the spatial hydraulic simulation can accurately depict the extent of the risk or flood spatially, which in turn will identify the significance, and the sensitivity of the influencing elements that contributes to the risk paradigm.
References
[1] Loucks, D. P., Quantifying trends in system sustainability. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 42(4), pp. 513-530, 1997. [2] Simonovic, S. P., Risk in sustainable water resources management. In: Sustainability of Water Resources Under Increasing Uncertainty: the Rabat Symposium. IAHS Publication, 240, pp. 3-17, 1997. [3] Sahely, H. R., Kennedy, C. A., & Adams, B. J., Developing sustainability criteria for urban infrastructure systems. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 32, pp. 72-85, 2005. [4] American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) and United Nations Scientific, Educational and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), Sustainability Criteria for Water Resource Systems, ASCE, Reston, Va., 1998. [5] Hashimoto, T., Stedinger, J. R., & Loucks, D. P., Reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation. Water Resour. Res., 18(1), pp. 14-20, 1982. [6] Moy, W.-S., Cohon, J. L., & ReVelle, C. S., A programming model for analysis of the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of a water supply reservoir. Water Resour. Res., 22(4), pp. 489-498, 1986. [7] Datta, B., and Houck, M. H., A stochastic optimization model for real-time operation of reservoirs using uncertain forecasts. Water Resource Research, 20, pp. 1039-1046, 1984. [8] Weeraratne, J. R., Logan, L. And Unny, T. E., Performance evaluation of alternate policies on reservoir system operation. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 13, pp. 203-212, 1986. [9] Burn, D. H. And Simonovic, S, P., An improved methodology for short-term operation of a single multi-purpose reservoir. Water Resources Research, 25, pp. 1-8, 1989. [10] Simonovic, S. P., Venema, H. D., & Burn, D. H. 1992. Risk-based parameter selection for short-term reservoir operation. Journal of Hydrology, 131(1-4), pp. 269-291, 1992.

[11] Simonovic, S. P., Assessment of the impact of climate variability and change on the reliability, resiliency and vulnerability of complex flood protection systems. Rep. to the Natural Resources Canada, London, Ontario, 2001. [12] Simonovic, S. P., & Li, L., Methodology for assessment of climate change impacts on large-scale flood protection system. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 129(5), pp. 361-371, 2003. [13] El-Baroudy, I., & Simonovic, S. P., Application of the fuzzy performance measures to the city of London water supply system. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 33, pp. 255-265, 2006. [14] Ahmad, S. S., & Simonovic, S. P., A methodology for spatial fuzzy reliability analysis. Applied GIS, 3(1), pp. 1-42, 2007. [15] Simonovic, S., A new method for spatial and temporal analysis of risk in water resources management. Journal of Hydroinformatics, 11(3-4), pp. 320-329, 2009. [16] Zongxue, X., Jinno, K., & Kawamura, A. et al., Performance risk analysis for Fukuoka water supply system. Water Resources Management. 12, pp. 13-30, 1998.
Section 2 City planning
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The small world of stakeholder groups: cascading concepts for urban change
M. Ganis, J. Minnery & D. Mateo-Babiano
The University of Queensland, School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, Australia
Abstract
This research seeks to understand why some stakeholder groups adopt novel urban design notions and others tend to lag in the uptake of these ideas. Key stakeholder groups participated in a semantic differential task of bipolar urban design qualities. A concept mapping task revealed those groups who aligned in their concept of good urban places and by implication, those that differed. The results showed that architects and planners are early adopters of urban design concepts, engineers, developers and the community are an early majority of adopters and landscape architects and councillors are the late majority. A small world metaphor offers a model for the spread of ideas between groups. Keywords: perception of place, small world networks.
1 Introduction
Urban change is sometimes fraught with difficult planning negotiations. Such difficulties occur because stakeholders planning expectations are not often satisfied. We need to elicit an underlying conceptual structure of their expectations for urban places. This discussion will consider firstly: the perception of place as a cognitive process; the role of small world network theory in understanding the process of the spread of ideas; and finally, the results of an empirical study interpreted in the context of a small world approach in understanding stakeholder groups acceptance of novel ideas in planning urban change.
2 Adaptive perceptual cycle

In planning for urban change we need to understand stakeholders perception of the urban context. The Adaptive Perceptual Cycle describes how people perceive their world and adapt to changes in it [14]. The Adaptive Perceptual Cycle (Figure 1) illustrates how we experience a place guided by existing expectations (or schemata). Information is absorbed as we experience a place (physical, social, cultural etc.) that tests our expectations or schemata. This contextual information may either fit our schema or conflict with it. If our schema is not a good fit a crisis of relevance occurs and a choice must be made to either adapt or not. This is the point of criticality [2] whereby the schema either resists change (systemic rigidity) or adjusts and adapts to the new context (systemic shift). CRITICALITY
Adjust
Systemic rigidity
Systemic shift
Test
SCHEMA
ADAPTATION
CONTEXT
Direct
Explore
I M E
Figure 1:
Adaptive Perceptual Cycle [14].
Resistance to change threats the stability of a whole system small local instabilities engulf a whole system (schema) and threaten global instability (criticality) creating a change imperative (self organisation). This self organising change in the Adaptive Perceptual Cycle is its point of criticality [3]. Synergetics (from the Greek word meaning, working together) contributes to the idea of self-organising adaption. Consider the complex network of factors that make up an urban context (these might be political, economic, social etc.). These factors present order parameters (such as regulations, policies, traditions etc.) which help structure personal and social knowledge structures. Order parameters
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compete to capture control of a knowledge structure. As Haken puts it, the order parameter that captures and enslaves its competitors wins [5]. The point of enslavement represents a critical shift or a phase transition. Just as synergetics captures ideas until dominant concepts emerge, the Adaptive Perceptual Cycle tests concepts until a point of criticality demands adaptation. In an urban context, our knowledge structure is challenged by many order parameters from culture to politics; and pressures from population to climate change. Many powerful protagonists such as developers, politicians, economists, environmentalists, design professionals, community and so on contest an urban change context. A network of ideas frames their knowledge structure of the urban concepts with which they grapple. Here, this network of urban design ideas is plotted as a concept map and interpreted using network typology.
3 Network typology
A network is a relationship of vertices (nodes or points) and edges (links or connectors). Traditionally, network topology identifies the stability of a regular network and the instability of a random network Figure 2). Within the last decade or so, a middle way between regular and random networks has emerged termed small world networks derived from the Milgrams sociological notion popularly known as six degrees of separation [7]. These degrees are the connections across social groups that expedite our social affiliations purportedly an average of six affiliates between any two people on the planet this is the small world.
WS small world model Watts and Strogatz (1998)
BA scale free model
REGULAR
SMALL WORLD (2 types) Figure 2: Network topology [8, 9].
RANDOM
A small world network is one that combines the characteristics of a regular, ordered network with those of a random, flexible one. Regular networks are characteristically coherent, but slow to change. Random networks are incoherent, but change rapidly. A small world network has the stability of coherence as well as the flexibility of rapid adaptation to change [8, 9]. To begin at the beginning, imagine living in a caveman world (Figure 2). In each cave lives a group of cavemen who only know each other and no one else. One curious caveman ventures out and meets another caveman passing by: their propensity to be acquainted immediately becomes very high and stays that way

regardless of how many additional mutual friends they may have [6]. Now that our caveman world is connected, imagine a social gathering during which one caveman randomly meets another and on discovery of a mutual acquaintance exclaims Small world isnt it!. This mutual acquaintance is a random, longrange short cut between formerly distant clusters of cavemen. Affiliations via such short cut acquaintances beyond ones own cave significantly increases the import of novel ideas and innovations, which may challenge the stability of traditional concepts or schemata. 1 2
Figure 3:
Watts caveman world [6].
A small world network combines the stability of a regular network and the creativity of a random one. If we apply this small world network metaphor to the Adaptive Perceptual Cycle this represents how schemata are enriched and changed by novel ideas and innovation. We test this new schema in the real world until the real world experience no longer fits that schema. New information arises that triggers a battle of order parameters and eventually impels a cascade of change.
Cascades, thresholds and the spread of ideas
In the context of the Adaptive Perceptual Cycle the threshold is the level of criticality and the cascade represents the systemic shift of a concept. Cascades are a characteristic dynamic of complex systems. Cascades appear as critical failures in many complex systems from built form infrastructure to the progression of climate change. The structure of such complex systems withstands many shocks over time and yet can fail unpredictably. This suggests that the structure of complex systems is ambiguously robust yet fragile [1113]. Is it the structure of the system or the intensity of the shock that impels a cascade of change? Gladwell [10] purports that a special person triggers a cascade of change such as shocking! Hollywood starlets who trigger cascades of changing fads and fashions. Watts [14] and Watts and Dodds [25] counter the special person argument with this analogy the spark that ignites a forest fire is no different from any other spark. A forest fire is fuelled by a combination of temperature,
75
wind and vegetation it is the structure of the forest system rather than the quality of the spark that triggers a forest fire. The difference is that Gladwells world is steered by the star-power of a principal actor [10, 15] whereas Watts world is a constellation of random rocks and gases. Thresholds set a systems level of robustness or fragility. Some people have a high threshold of change (robust) and align with convention. Those with a low threshold of change (fragile) willingly align with unconventional people. This means that in any given social group for any given fad the timing of cascades will differ - some people are early adopters, some are the early majority, some are the late majority and some are laggards [1618]. The first step in the adoption of a novel idea is the awareness of its advantages or good fit with an existing concept. Novel ideas that are compatible with existent schemata offer a familiar, stable conceptual framework from which to explore an unfamiliar or complex concept. Conversely, a bad fit idea is likely to be rejected. Finally, adoption of a novel idea is evaluated through testing and observation of how successful the novelty is. Success observed or reported by others drives a novel idea via the few early adopters, the early majority who popularise a novelty and eventually spread it to the late majority and finally, possibly to the few laggards [16, 17]. Novelty needs an innovator. The innovator is the one who ventures forth out of their conceptual cave and initially broadcasts the seed of a novel idea [11, 16]. Fertile soil is found in a low threshold context in which new ideas are compatible with the schemata of susceptible individuals. Early adopters are open to novelty particularly if there is an expectation from their colleagues that they are somewhat avant-garde and creative. If this group of susceptible early adopters is a homogeneous, like-minded close-knit group the novelty is rapidly adopted. However, if a homogeneous group has such strong ties that they know only each other and no one else much like an isolated caveman the novelty remains predominantly within the group and trickles slowly throughout the wider community. Conversely, a heterogeneous group exposes a novel idea to diverse people with different interests connecting them beyond the groups conceptual cave. This heterogeneous group of lesser-like-minded people have diverse acquaintances (weak ties) and act like a conduit for the spread of ideas [1922]. The strength of weak ties is that they generate a cascade of early majority adopters via their tacit connections with affiliates of other diverse groups [6, 16]. An early majority is a mass movement of followers that spreads novelty. The early majority generates the acceptance of a novel idea because the more people are attracted to a following the more people follow. Early majority cascades demonstrate a level of certainty that a novelty is tried and tested, acceptable and popular. This reassures the high level threshold that the risk-averse late majority needs before adopting a novel idea. And finally, the small group described as laggards [1618] are those who adhere fiercely to conventional ideas despite the cascades of change around them. They resist the external shocks that persistently test their schemata of the world. Some may retreat into isolation and others may

form exclusive communities who adhere to age-old ideas and practices and are impervious to the new. Network structure influences the global spread of novel ideas [11] [26]. The points (vertices) of small world networks represent adopters and the lines (connectors) represent the ties between adopters. There are two types of small world networks (Figure 2). The first is the Watts and Strogatz [8] WS small world network model and the second is the Barabasi and Albert [9] BA scale-free network. The difference between these two small world models is the connectivity distribution, the growth mechanism and the composition. The key similarities that characterise both as small world networks are that they exhibit dense clusters, shortest path connectivity and self-organising evolution over time. The WS small world network is a homogeneous model in which adopters connect with their nearest neighbour [8, 21, 23, 24]. It is an exponential growth model that tends towards a sparse distribution of dense local clusters (hubs) connected via long range short-cuts to the global network - somewhat like road network of towns and cities. The BA scale-free network is a heterogeneous model in which adopters exhibit preferential attachment connecting with the rich and powerful a rich get richer power law distribution mechanism [9]. The BA model forms a densely connected giant component (hub) that dominates the global connectivity of the network somewhat like an airline network of major airports around the world. Network robustness and fragility are affected by the different structure of small world networks [1113]. A WS small world model is a homogeneous network in which the low threshold of like-minded colleagues creates cascade fragility enabling the early adoption of ideas. However, the fragility of the cluster of early adopters does not affect the robustness of the WS small world network because of the sparse distribution of clusters ideas will cascade incrementally. The BA scale free model may have the robustness of heterogeneity but the network is dominated by a giant component to which most adopters attach. A targeted attack on this dominant hub fragments the whole network and ideas will cascade catastrophically. 4.1 Method Empirical case studies of small world networks have been described for many real world contexts but as yet, research into psychological networks is limited [29]. The intent of the concept mapping task is to reveal the stakeholders schemata of urban design qualities that make good urban places. Multidimensional scaling (MDS) is a relational statistical method traditionally used in psychology and social network analysis [15, 27]. Cluster Analyses (CA) support the interpretation of the MDS plots. If there is ambiguity between the MDS and the CA the MDS result takes precedence [28]. A Kendall Tau correlation elicits those groups whose schemata are similar and those that are different. A semantic differential task presents bipolar categories of urban design qualities derived from a content analysis of the urban design literature. The participant groups consist of a stratified random selection of design, development, community professionals and a lay group. These stratified groups
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are selected because they represent the usual stakeholders in an urban change process: Architects (10); Councillors (elected local government representatives) (8); Developers (7); Landscape Architects (7); Planners (24); Transport Engineers/Planners (11); and, Others (9) a total of 76 participants. The participants are instructed to respond from the perspective of their professional or community role. The urban change scenario is described so that their responses are framed by a real world context with which they are familiar South East Queensland, Australia. The predicted growth in South East Queensland over the next 20 25 years will trigger changes for existing urban centres. These changes will have an impact upon the urban design qualities of urban centres. Please mark with an X, the ranking number that best fits your idea of good urban design qualities for South East Queensland. The bipolar categories of urban qualities that the participants rank (from 17) are: Table 1:
Var. 1 Var. 2 Var. 3 Var. 4 Var. 5 Var. 6 Var. 7 Var. 8 Var. 9
Coding and bipolar categories for semantic differential task.

Compact, Distinct Centres - Dispersed Sub-centres Local Character Building Style - Unusual, Landmark Architecture Clear Way-finding - Mysterious Exploration Technical Efficiency - Sensory Experience Small-scale Local Infrastructure - Large-scale Regional Infrastructure Adventurous Places - Safe Places Urban-Rural Fusion - Ecological Conservation Evolving Places - Completed Places Movement Network Connectivity - Movement Network Separation
4.1.1 Results The MDS plots consist of clusters of variables (shown as groups of dots) and dimensions (shown as a line or curve of dots). The plots are two-dimensional for clear interpretation. The stress value of an MDS analysis is an evaluation the results goodness-of-fit: a stress value of <0.15 is a good fit and one that is >0.25 is a bad fit. A low stress value indicates greater reliability and a high the stress value indicates less reliability because the results may be too complex to interpret. The results indicate a range of stress values for each group between >0.01 and <0.16 this is a good fit. Interpreting MDS plots is essentially a qualitative process [15] and the CA supports the interpretation of clusters, dimensions and Euclidean distance of the network of variables [29]. Although the MDS results show that each groups plot of their network or urban design variables is different there is one compelling relationship of variables the All Groups plot (76 participants) illustrates the cluster of: Variable 1 (Compact, Distinct Urban Centres); Variable 3 (Clear Way finding); and, Variable 9 (Movement Network Connectivity). This group of variables is categorised as Cluster and Connectivity. A Kendall Tau correlation analysis (Table 2) reveals groups that have similar conceptual structures and those that do not. Briefly, a co-efficient that is nearest 1 indicates the groups that are most closely related (a perfect correlation being 1)

Table 2:
ALL 1.000 0.944 0.309 0.743 0.704 1.000 0.816 0.857
Kendall Tau correlations MD pairwise deleted.

A 0.944 1.000 0.253 0.800 0.647 0.944 0.760 0.800 C 0.309 0.253 1.000 0.289 0.514 0.309 0.342 0.434 D 0.743 0.800 0.289 1.000 0.666 0.743 0.579 0.705 LA 0.704 0.647 0.514 0.666 1.000 0.704 0.514 0.782 P 1.000 0.944 0.309 0.743 0.704 1.000 0.816 0.857 TE/P 0.816 0.760 0.342 0.579 0.514 0.816 1.000 0.724 O 0.857 0.800 0.434 0.705 0.782 0.857 0.724 1.000
Marked correlations (shown in bold) are significant at p <.05000

ALL A C D LA P TE/P O
ARCHITECTS STRESS = 0.141
COUNCILLORS STRESS = 0.014
DEVELOPERS STRESS = 0.039
LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTS STRESS = 0.058
PLANNERS STRESS = 0.093
TRANSPORT ENGINEERS /PLANNERS STRESS = 0.163
OTHERS STRESS = 0.124
ALL GROUPS STRESS = 0.151
Figure 4:
Multidimensional scaling plots.
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in their conceptual structure of good urban places, and those furthest, less related. The results show that the only group that has some correlation with the Councillors (C) is the group of Landscape Architects (LA) with a coefficient of 0.5. The groups with a coefficient indicating a similar conceptual structure are the Architects (A) and the Planners (P) with a coefficient of 0.94. The groups that are least correlated with the Councillors (C) are the Architects (A) with a coefficient of 0.25, the Developers (D) with a coefficient of 0.29 and the Planners (P) with a coefficient of 0.31. 4.2 Discussion The pressures of urban growth and change in South East Queensland, Australia triggered the research. Planning for dynamic urban change is difficult because stakeholders expectations often differ. This research sought to reveal the similarities and differences between stakeholders schemata of good urban places. A concept mapping task was intended to reveal the content and structure of the stakeholders schemata. Multidimensional scaling analysis (MDS) plotted the stakeholders concept maps supported by cluster analyses (CA) and Kendall Tau correlations. The interpretation of the concept maps was framed within a small world network metaphor. Firstly, consider the All Groups MDS plot: Variable 1 (Compact, Distinct Urban Centres); Variable 3 (Clear Way finding); and, Variable 9 (Movement Network Connectivity). Interpreted with a small world metaphor in mind, this cluster of variables represented a hub of the participants schema a component of the network categorised in this discussion as urban Cluster and Connectivity.
Figure 5:
All Groups cluster analysis, MDS plot and small world diagram.
Cluster and Connectivity formed a hub that may represent a schema of urban density connected throughout by an efficient and coherent street network. Interestingly, the variables of this hub Cluster and Connectivity also describe

the dynamic of small world networks whether a WS small world exponential model or a BA scale free preferential attachment model. This implies that a small world network dynamic not only emerged in the content of the schema (i.e. the variables categorised as Cluster and Connectivity) but also as the dynamic of network structure. The adjacent cluster of variables consisted of: Var. 5 Small-scale Local Infrastructure; Var. 8 Evolving Places; Var. 2 Local Character Building Style; and, Var. 4 Sensory Experience. This hub was categorised as Locale because the variables described the urban setting in both concrete and abstract terms. Locale is the nearest neighbour to the Cluster and Connectivity hub suggesting suggests that the urban form of Cluster and Connectivity is associated with stakeholders experience of the Locale. The hub that consisted of: Var. 6 Safe Places; and, Var. 7 Ecological Conservation is defined as Stewardship. It was the least contiguous with the hub Cluster and Connectivity however, the nearest neighbour to the hub Stewardship is Locale. This implies that the notion of Locale is associated with a sense of Stewardship for the safety of people and the environment. The results of the Kendall Tau correlations showed that the most similar stakeholder groups were the Architects and Planners. Conversely, the Councillors were the least similar and only somewhat similar to the Landscape Architects. These two extremes presented a curious scenario. The role of Architects and Planners is to offer the conceptual input into a planning process and it was expected that the Landscape Architects would align with these design professionals. Counter intuitively, the Landscape Architects were the only group who had some similarity with the Councillors and of the professional groups they had the least similarity with the Architects and Planners. This significant correlation between the Landscape Architects and the Councillors can only be conjecture. It might be that Landscape Architects have a schema dominated by natural landscaping concepts and the Councillors may be comfortable such concepts as the restorative effects of vegetation, natural environments, parks and open spaces. This may be a strong conceptual tie between them whereas the other professionals may have a predominantly urban built form focus. The Architects and Planners (and ignoring the puzzling Landscape Architects for the moment) are homogenous stakeholder groups with closely aligned education and experience with urban design notions. The familiar urban design schemata act as a stable construct enabling the early adoption of novel ideas. Early adopters of novel ideas have a low threshold (fragility) that triggers a cascade of change New ideas are adopted more readily if the systemic shift of the schema (cascade) is moderate rather than extreme. Most of the remaining stakeholder groups revealed a less significant correlation with the early adopter Architects and Planners (0.944). Comparing each groups correlation coefficient with All Groups (1.000) the Architects and Planners were the early adopters; the Others (0.857) and the Transport Engineers/Planners (0.816) were the early majority; and the late majority appeared to be the Developers (0.743) and the Landscape Architects (0.704). Finally, the Councillors appeared to be the laggards with an insignificant
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correlation coefficient of 0.309. An argument may be posed that Councillors have many considerations to juggle other than urban design ones but this does not explain their correlation with the Landscape Architects nor does it explain the correlation between the diverse group of Others and the Architects and Planners. Why are the Others more similar with the design professionals (except the Landscape Architects) than the Councillors when both of these groups are generally lay groups and community representatives? The Others consisted of a random group of lay people a heterogeneous group. As Granovetter and others propose, their diversity offers random weak ties that are a strong conduit for the spread and receipt of novel ideas [19, 22]. Conversely, most professional groups are likely to be homogeneous which enables the early adopter cascade of novel ideas but also increases redundant contacts.
5 Conclusion
The Adaptive Perceptual Cycle described how schemata guide the way we interpret the world. Schemata cascade if novel ideas challenge existing expectations. Stakeholder groups concept maps indicated that Cluster and Connectivity was a hub of their schema for good urban places. This aligned with small world network theory and may be a framework for understanding the robustness and fragility of stakeholders concepts in planning urban places.
Acknowledgements
We thank Dr Phil Smith and Dr Mike Gillen, University of Queensland, Australia.
References
[1] Neisser, U. Cognition and Reality: principles and implications of cognitive psychology. New York: W. H. Freeman and Company, 1976. [2] Portugali, J. (ed). The Construction of Cognitive Maps. London: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1996. [3] Bak, P. How nature works: the science of self-organized criticality. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1997. [4] Haken, H. and Portugali, J. The face of the city is its information. Journal of Environmental Psychology. Elsevier Ltd., 23 pp. 385408, 2003. [5] Haken, H. In Portugali, J. ed. The Construction of Cognitive Maps. London: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1996. [6] Watts, D. J. Small Worlds: the dynamics of networks between order and randomness. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, p45, 1999. [7] Milgram, S. The Small World Problem. Psychology Today. 1:1 pp. 6067, 1967. [8] Watts, D. J. and Strogatz, S. Collective dynamics of small world networks. Nature. London: Macmillan Publishers, 393:4 pp. 440-442.1998.

[9] Barabsi, A.-L. and Albert, R. Emergence of Scaling in Random Networks. Science, 286, pp. 509512, 1999. [10] Gladwell, M. The Tipping Point: how little things can make a big difference. Boston: Little Brown, 2000. [11] Watts, D. J. A simple Model of Global Cascades on Random Networks, 2002. In M. Newman, A-L Barabasi and D. J. Watts. The Structure and Dynamics of Networks. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2006. [12] Wang, X. F. and Chen G. Complex Networks: small world, scale free and beyond. IEEE Circuits and Systems. 2003. [13] Sun, S., Liu, Z., Chen, Z. and Yuan, Z. Error and Attack Tolerance of Evolving Networks with Local Preferential Attachment. Physica A. Elsevier B. V. 2006. [14] Watts, D. J. Challenging the Influentials Hypothesis. Measuring Word of Mouth, Dept. of Communication Studies, Northeastern University, vol. 3, 2007. [15] Scott, J. Social Network Analysis: a handbook. London: SAGE Publications Inc., 2000. [16] Rogers, E. M. Diffusion and Innovation. New York: Free Press, 1995. [17] Valente, T. W. Social Network Thresholds in the Diffusion of Innovation. Social Networks. Elsevier B. V. 18, pp. 6989.1996. [18] Valente, T. W. Network Models and Methods for Studying the Diffusion of Innovations. In P.J. Carrington, J. Scott and S Wasserman. Models and Methods in Social Network Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005. [19] Granovetter, M. The Strength of Weak Ties. American Journal of Sociology, 78:6 pp. 13601380, 1973. [20] Granovetter, M. The Strength of Weak Ties: a network theory revisited. Sociological Theory. American Sociological Association, vol. 1 pp. 201233, 1983. [21] Kleinberg, J. M. Navigation in a Small World. Nature. 406: 845, 2000. [22] Watts, D. J. A simple Model of Global Cascades on Random Networks, 2002. In M. Newman, A-L Barabasi and D. J. Watts, The Structure and Dynamics of Networks. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2006. [23] Newman, M. E. J. and Park, J. Why Social Networks are Different from Other Types of Networks. Physical Review E, 68, 036122. The American Physical Society, 2003. [24] Dodds, P. S. and Watts, D. J. Universal Behaviours in a Generalized Model of Contagion. Physical Review Letters. The American Physical Society 92:21, 2004. [25] Watts, D. J. and Dodds P. S. Influentials, Networks and Public Opinion Formation. Journal of Consumer Research, vol. 34 pp. 441458, 2007. [26] Coronges, K. A., Valente, T. W. and Stacy, A. W. Structural Comparison of Cognitive Associative Networks in Two Populations, 2007. wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1559-1816.2007.00253.x/ www.onlinelibrary. abstract.
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[27] Wasserman, S. and Faust, K. Social Network Analysis: methods and applications. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994. [28] Trochim, W.www.socialresearchmethods.net/mapping/mapping.htm [29] Schnettler, S. A structured overview of 50 years of small-world research. Social Networks, 31, pp. 165178, 2009.
85
The strength of the urban form

I. Giovagnorio
Cagliari University, Italy
Abstract
Cities with more than 75% of consumption and 85% of global CO2 emissions are a major problem in our country. The continuous process of urbanization highlights the human need of city and denounces the need to transform the urban settlement from a weak to a strong future sustainability. Urban form and functions are deeply related to the availability of the energy resources in the territory, comparing the behavior of the city to a living organism, dependent on the energy flows in and out. This one-to-one relationship between form and energy sources historically proved that emphasize mutations engender each other on their development and their decline. According to scientific studies, relevant physical factors, such as morphology and density, directly affect a settlements energy behaviour and its microclimate. The uniqueness of each city and their ability to work simultaneously on local and global objectives has driven Europe to indicate cities as a crux and urban design as the appropriate tool for defining the shape and land uses compatible with sustainability goals. Because of historical ties linking urban form and energy sources, the force switchover to renewable sources raises the question what will be the future shape of the sustainable city. The use of urban design as a tool to influence urban form becomes an essential prerogative to bear on urban form and reach the optimal condition of energys self-sustainable island. Keywords: urban form, city, energy, sustainability, utopia.
1 Introduction
The current energy and environmental condition focus attention on the citysystem. The simultaneous presence of the processes of urbanization, intensification of energy requirements and consequently, the emission of pollutants, make it at the same time the place chosen for the concentration of human activities and the earth systems weak point.

The process of the worlds urbanization, expressing the need of a city [1] for mankind, has been intensified since the early 70s, leading in 2007 to over 50% of the world population to choose urban living. According to UN data [2], the agglomerations with more than ten million people, within the space of thirty years (19752005) have been quintupled, from 3 to 21 today, 15 of which are located in developing countries. A clear symptom of the metropolitanization process [3] that is affecting those countries in which hundreds of people poured daily into cities contributing to a wild urbanization [4] of land, where speed and the extent of the phenomenon grow and expand the big urban centers, making the demarcation of the margins of the agglomeration increasingly blurred. In the opposite way to the phenomena of overcrowding that are involving the Asian and South American territories, the crisis in the western city is dominated by anxiety for its dissolution. The urbanization that has affected the developed countries as a result of the Industrial Revolution has slowly dried up as early as the second half of last century, even to go into reverse, giving life to what is now known as the lost city [5]. Both crises, whether they follow the overcrowding and the dilution phenomenon, are aggravated by energy and environmental effects resulting from the combination of urbanization-fossil sources, whose results deliver to the city the leadership in global consumption which is over 75%, and in pollutant emissions with production of over 85% of CO2. A record compounded by the knowledge that over 85% of that 75% comes from the use of non-renewable fossil fuels in depletion concentrated in limited geographic areas, whose intensive use has shown the fragility of the supply energy system (1970s crisis) and the vulnerability of cities due to the extreme meteorological conditions resulting from environmental effects. This knowledge has reopened the way, starting from 1970s, to an important scientific research intended to study and understanding the energy behavior of the cities, its morphological relations with energy technologies and the testing of new renewable sources. The birth, in the late 1980s, of the concept of sustainable development has necessarily led us to think about an alternative urban model that, in addition to incorporating the values of social equity and environmental respect, to discover in the city itself the necessary strength to transform it from a whole energy to a self- sustainable island. In doing so, as history teaches us and EU policies suggest to us, we will be also involved, through the urban design, the shape of the city, calling upon the narrow two-way link that connects it to sources of supply and the power distribution networks.
2 Urban form and energy form in history

The closed link between urban form and energy form allows us to read the whole urban history as a sequence of mutations produced by the development and the consequent decline of energy sources. The emergence and flourishing of the settlements are dependent on the availability of renewable and energy resources in the area, which, in addition to
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ensuring their survival, have had a deep influenced through the networks and power technologies used, the shape and the functions. Origin, development and decline of the sources have affected the anthropic use of the territory, as well as settlement and production employment of land that have led to their development, integration and replacement. Through a quick reading of urban history, we can highlight the morphological characteristics of each period in relation to the sources used: The discrete settlement; is based on human and animal muscle power and on the abundance of wood in the surrounding areas. If the muscle strength was essential for the movement of farm implements and for the transport of goods, wood as raw material, tools, machinery, equipment, as a final product and as a fuel, was the dominant industrial resource [6]. The presence and abundance of raw material has deeply influenced the size and the location of settlements, mainly organized in compact forms of small-medium sizes. In the fourteenth century in Europe, the continued deforestation of wooded land, had alarmed man about the imminent exhaustion of the primary resource and drove him to looking for possible additional sources in water and wind. Also, in this case, the use of water required the settlements to stay near the proximity of the source. The higher energy density and the continuous production of energy from inanimate sources, in larger quantities and in less time, have significantly contributed to the transition from a subsistence economy to a one of market, laying the first foundations for the development of the future industrial society. Coketown; The shift of the use of coal as energy source has substantially changed the discrete settlement model. Its physical and chemical properties allowed, during the Industrial Revolution that occurred in the Nineteenth century, the production of new powerful and innovative technology machinery, such as the steam boiler. The replacement of waterwheels with boilers turned the historical relationship between the place of extraction of the source and the production and consumption one, freeing the latter from the need to reside imperatively close to the first. The exceptionality of the event and the urban revolution in relation to it can be summed up in a few key points: The industry influence on the spatial structure of the settlement. The economic, production, transport and conversion of energy activities influenced and changed the urban form;
the breaking of the temporal link between solar radiation and daily flow of energy available. The use of fossil energy sources, independent from the obliged presence of the sun, allowed people to have a continuous and uninterrupted flow of energy, released by the time and place of production; breaking the link between place of production of energy sources and the place of work and consumption. The birth of the railway made it possible to transfer the raw material at a great distance from the place of extraction. The factories became an active factor in transformation and creation of urban agglomerations, with direct consequences on the degradation of the social

environment and the urban structure. The two main elements of the new city center were the factory and the slum. They alone make up what was called the city [7].
The vertical city; the birth of electricity, during the last two decades of the eighteenth century, also broke the last link between the place of production and place of consumption, thanks to the use of the network distribution systems. The electricity, in contrast to earlier sources, was born with a strong urban connotation and it mainly aimed at improving the living conditions in the city. The major technological innovations, such as public lighting system, electric trams and elevators, the network distribution system etc. had a strong influenced on the shape of the city, becoming the structuring elements of the avant-garde modern urban models (one example is the A. Soria Y Matas Ciudad Lineal, 1882). The scientific and technological innovations completely transformed the way of living and building the city; if the lift has changed the city skyline through the vertical extrusion of the building (skyscraper), transport and networks of public services have played a key role in the conformation of the eighteenth century city, becoming engines of a new linear urban development model. The horizontal city; in the second half of the eighteenth century the first oil extraction took place. The easiest way of transport along with an energy density superior to 50% compared with coal benefited its rapid expansion. The combination of oil-electricity has stimulated the technology sector creating, over twenty years, the first internal combustion engine and the mass production of cars. The car sector, supported by political and economic actions, soon boycotted the electric transportation system in favour of one based on tyres, stimulating the infrastructure of the territory by building thousands of miles of highways. The cities are born and flourish economically and physically, on a substrate of fossil fuels [8], with the consequence of diluting the settlement on the territory: suburbs were born, marked with the single family house and roads, intended for owners of vehicles needed to achieve them, which sponsored a new concept of living based on freedom and individual private property values. There appeared the sprawl, still present in our territories, a spokesman of an unbreakable link between oil-dispersion, nowadays extremely critical [9].
Aware of the problems related to the current diluted settlement model and the need to switch to renewable sources with new technological systems, awareness of their direct impact on the formal structure and spatial organization of the city makes us wonder how they will influence the future shape of the city? Can the urban form, and if so, how, to participate actively in the creation of a new sustainable city? These questions are still unanswered and whose only certainty is the centrality of the city, called to make a difference by implementing incisive quickly measures [10].
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The relevance of the city
To emphasize the centrality of cities in the transition to new sustainable models has also contributed to the work done since the middle 70s from international organizations and the European Commission. It was during these years, with the first conferences and community programs that cities attracted world attention on the role they could play in energy and the environment, thanks to the ability to combine, through the accurate action, important goals of local and global urban sustainability. But the complexity found in the changeover to new sustainable models cannot be attributed only to the moment of transition in which we live, rather than the confusion hidden behind the concept of sustainability. In agreement with statements made by S. Falocco and F. Indovina, the term sustainable development has become over the years an obligatory reference to any document or project action, debasing profoundly [...] the theoretical and operational importance [11]. In a short time in-depth examinations were produced and theoretical texts a bit for fashion, a bit for the complexity of the term that, with all the unresolved ambiguity [...] is loaded with expectations [12] and a bit because it affects different areas of interest (economic, political, social, etc.) involved in the development process with all of its unsolved contradictions. The term, appeared for the first time during the seventies, has spread globally thanks to the attention and the significance that major international organizations have attributed to it; to the first and best-known definition, which takes its name from the Brundtland Commission itself (1987), have followed many other interpretations which, in turn, have declined and expanded it to their field of interest. Among the many conjugations, sustainable development gains particular meaning when its applied to a complex object as the city helping in this case, the construction of a holistic concept in which social equity, ecological economy and environmental protection are integrated with a new model of governance based on cooperation and active involvement of all decision-process makers. This important goal of future urban sustainability cannot disregard involvement of the shape of the settlement, considered to be responsible for the quality of human life, set on the first point of the Rio Declaration (1992). And in order that the goal of a more urban quality should be achieved, the major international organizations have identified in urban design the suitable tool to change and define the structures and land uses compatible with sustainabilitys principles. The need to consider the entire urban settlement and not the individual building, is also supported by the result of an interesting study, led by P. De Pascali. Through his work is shown how specific interventions aimed at rationalize energy efficiency of individual buildings finally inevitably tend to stabilize almost pursued an asymptotic approach toward a final value not further compressible [13].

The urban geometry, from which depend on the ability of daylight and sunlight to reach buildings facades and the use of natural ventilation in dwellings, acts directly on urban microclimate, affecting individuals energy consumptions. According to Givoni [14] the outdoor temperature, wind speed and solar radiation to which an individual building is exposed is not the regional synoptic climate, but the local microclimate as modified by the structure of the city, mainly of the neighbourhood the building is located. To act on urban geometry, therefore, means to change its energy consumption; it becomes necessary to understand better its behaviour so that higher levels of performance could be achieved. To do this with regard to European cities, the third in the world rankings for energy consumptions, in which four out of five citizens have chosen to reside, becomes crucial.
4 The energy behavior of the city-system

The need to understand the phenomena that characterize the urban structure led us to overcome the sectoral and mechanistic theories to interpret the city in terms of urban organism which is no longer considered as the sum of its parts but as a complex ecosystem based on the comprehension of relationships between its components. Because of their metabolism, modern cities have been defined by Wright (1958) like immense mouths. We could assimilate their behavior to that of an energy-intensive and inefficient engine, where a large amount of energy and material is converted at the cost of huge waste of energy. Their ability to self-organize and react to external disturbances by modifying and reorganizing their own structure (up to a certain threshold) is common with large dissipative systems: open systems that exchange energy with their environment: they retain their structure thanks to continuous flows of energy available through their system [15]. Any re-organization, induced by external disturbance, increases the complexity of the structure and consequently its energy needs and vulnerability. If we turn to the thermodynamics in order to understand better the impact of energy transformations, the city can be compared to an open system fed by neg-entropy (high-quality energy and matter) that, once they meet their own needs, releasing a large amount of entropy (low-quality energy/disorder). To the initial input energy, used in part to organize their internal structure (goods, information, services, etc.) and partly to increase its size, follows the release of wastes and pollutants in the environment with the overall decrease of available energy and the deterioration of its quality (the second law of thermodynamics). This condition of islands of decreasing entropy [16] means that today the city will survive and prosper off the environment in which they appear, without taking into adequate consideration its carrying capacity (in 2010 we consumed 150% of the annual available resources of the planet). Apply to the fossil city [17] the principle of sustainability means to make it able to meet the needs of its inhabitants within the limits imposed by the need to preserve the integrity and productivity of environmental systems in which its life
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depends on [18]. Achieve this aim, by urban design, take necessarily action on the spatial relationships that bind the urban form to its energy efficiency, changing the physical factors that influence them (density, geometry and shape of the building, materials, location of functions, transport, green areas, etc.). An expression of these relationships is contained in the urban heat balance equation: Qr + Qt = Qe + Ql + Qs + Qa (1)
in which the morphology of the settlement (Qr) and the effects of the use of fossil fuels (Qt) appear closely linked to the urban microclimate and environmental conditions. Size of cities and settlements concentration, geometry and dimensions of building, type of material and type of technologies, distribution of vegetation and degree of soil sealing, location of activities and traffic flows generated by these, modes of transport used, all affect decisively on the effects both of solar radiation that from the uses of fossil fuels, and their combination [19]. The effects are particularly relevant on the microclimate and on the energy needs of cities located in the middle latitudes. Here the heat trap that is created between the dense parts of the buildings, especially in summer, favors the accumulation of heat and triggers off a circular process between the rate of pollution and rising temperatures of the town center (heat island). The consequence is the exponential increase of the energy demand and to encourage the phenomenon of spatial dispersion to citys surroundings, characterized by marked climatic differences (according to Santamouris et al. [20], differences in temperature between the center and peripheral areas can reach 10C). Among the main causes that contribute to the heat island are: the reduction of green areas on the inside urban areas. The replacement of vegetation with the built-up areas reduces the evapotranspiration of plants and increases the presence of pollutants in the air; the high density of urban areas. Natural ventilation is reduced as a result of urban canyons and multiplies reflections between buildings, with a greater absorption and diffusion of heat. While the high density decreases the heat loss of buildings with gains in energy consumption of cooling/heating systems, on the other hand it may increase power consumption due to the higher need for artificial lighting (due to shading of the surrounding surfaces), for forced ventilation systems, distribution systems, etc. In addition, if high density is also accompanied by a high percentage of use of private vehicles, the congestion of the city center dramatically decreases the quality of life and increases air and noise pollution; the use of materials with high values of albedo (percentage of direct and diffuse solar radiation that is reflected back to the atmosphere) [21]. The physical and chemical composition of materials promotes the absorption of solar radiation and its releasing during the night;

the use of fossil fuels. Their use follow a huge rate of heat loss which concurs to raise the temperature of the city center and the rate of pollution; Two other functions of T.R. Oke [22], eqns. (2) and (3), confirm the relationship between the island heat and the physical parameters of the city; in the eqn (1), the heat island intensity is directly proportional to the density of the city, while in the eqn (2) is the ratio between the height and distance of the buildings fronts to determine the result of intensity. dT = P 0,25/4U 0,5 dT = heat island intensity; P = urban population size; U = wind speed in the suburban; dT = 7,54 + 3,97 ln(H/W) H/W = ratio between the high (H) and the distance (W) of buildings. (3) (2)
Call for vision
At present there is a plethora of theories emerging about sustainable urban forms. [...] Should it be towards the compact city or not? [23]. The renewed interest in the compact city as a sustainable urban form has opened an intense international debate. The European Community is one of the major supporters of the efficiency and sustainability of the compact city. The Commission, at the first time with the Green Paper on the Urban Environment (1990) and subsequently with the European Charter II (2008), indicated the dense and compact city as the solution to the gains on urban efficiency and quality. 52. We must rethink our cities around compact and densities urban forms, which require minimal resources for their operation and allow residents to have access, nearness their homes, to the various facilities they need, to services and spaces for leisure, to protect areas and natural parks. We want a city that knows how to save at the level of its resources, its soil, of movement within it, the energy. Only the consistency and firmness of our cities will make the urban space easier, more accessible, more alive to all residents, regardless of their social conditions, their age or health conditions (UE, European Urban Charter II). With these guidelines, the strategies pursued by some municipalities, shared by many associations of cities and tested in various community programs, worked in favor of the density with specific actions within the existing urban structure. An acupuncture work face to re-use and conversion with urban infill and re-stitching operations, complemented by the use of alternative clean sources (Solar City/Linz; Hammarby/Stockholm; HafenCity/Hamburg; Zuidas and GWL Terrain/Amsterdam; Nordhavn/Copenhagen, etc.). Otherwise, the new Arab and Asian powers have produced great urban visions (Dongtan, Masdar City, Huai Rou, etc..), sometimes provocative (Super Star-MAD; Gwanggoyo Power
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Centre-MVRDV; Seoul Commune-Mass Studies, etc.) in which the role attributed to technology and at the green areas is too often a leitmotif of easy success to give a hint to progressive projects that would be otherwise conventional [24] leaving still open large settings to the reflections on the future shape of the city. Although it shared the apparent failure of a sectoral approach to the disciplines of urban planning and has instead called for a holistic approach that takes into account the whole urban organism, the correlation of this concept with the compact city model seems not to be shared unanimously (Welbank, Breheny, Thomas and Cousin, Jenks). Neither the approximations with natural ecosystems seem to lead to a certain compact model. Research in support of a major city density, or to the contrary to a more dispersed area, still show partial (perhaps incomplete) results given the relative youth and the complexity hidden behind energy issues to assert with certainty the greater sustainability of one either. Also the incidence of local factors (climate, environment, resources, etc.) and the diversity of energy-environmental issues do not seem to favor a single answer to the problem. The urgency and the extent of the change indicate the importance of the historical moment that we are living, often called epoch-making. In these moments of transition toward new socio-economic and urban models, man has often put their fears and their expectations in utopian visions that offer alternative views, sometimes concrete and sometimes fantastic, on contemporary issues. The great urban visions of the first part of the twentieth century were slowly replaced by bureaucracy and complexity of the urban planning practices, flattening its creative capacity. Today the big sustainability issue requires probably a new great urban vision and the promotion of the compact city as possible model to pursue it has rekindled the historical debate between centralist and decentralist [25]. Both can rely on two great masters of architecture, who in 1935 have shown their opposite positions in two urban utopias: Le Ville Radieuse (Le Corbusier) and Broadacre City (Wright). Supporters of the dense city recognize this model: the lower use of private vehicles in favor of alternative means of transport (pedestrians, cyclists, public railway, etc.) with heavy savings on fuel consumption and air pollution (Newman and Kenworthy); more support for global warming and climate change by reducing CO2 emissions; less land consume with protection of farmland and green belt surrounding the settlement; improved quality of life, also guaranteed by the proximity of services and the mix of functions; It would appear that (the quality of urban life) to challenge the victory of the compact city; does not yet seem possible to prove the fact that large density is accompanied by a high quality standard (on the contrary, if you look at the great cities of the third world) and, despite the savings on energy consumption, this does not seem to reach levels that make it acceptable risks of unpopular policies.

So, quality remains the focal point on which decentralists fight their conviction; according to them: the quality of human life can be guaranteed only in small communities in the land. The extreme position enhances the rural values dreaming of a dispersed community based on self-sufficient dwellings supported by telecommunications (electronic cottage Breheny [25]); man still prefers life in the suburb, as confirmed by populations data, there are still many people who leave the city and moved a few miles outside (on this point, however, it is necessary to take into account the policies supported by government and market trends); it is unlikely that the compact city is able to protect green belts and farmland curbing its expansion within the city. Perhaps the solution lies in the middle of the extremes, in a Howards vision able to apply strategies for urban regeneration and densification, and at the same time to create a network of medium-small settlements, environmental and energy managers, equipped with necessary services and connected by an efficient public transport system.
Conclusion
The energy and environmental emergencies ask for the integration and the replacement of the old fossil fuels with new sources of clean and renewable energy. As has historically demonstrated, the transition toward new sources and new technologies will transform the spatial form of our cities. It becomes legitimate to ask: what will be the future shape of sustainable cities? Could we, acting through the city shape, contribute to this epochal change towards a better and more efficient management of environmental resources and energy? Scenarios are still open; although there is a strong tendency to support the compact city as the future urban form, the real evidence on its capability to ensure good quality of life damages the certainty of governments. This big moment of transformation that we are living probably needs time to experiment, even through great utopian visions, on what will be the best roads to undertake. Probably the strength of sustainability lies in the possibility for every community to become self-sufficient by using the resources on its disposal in the environment, in a fair and respectful of the natural time, replacing the current centralized management system with a suitable local one. In this way the opposite urban visions that have historically divided centralist and decentralist, led by two great masters of Wright and Le Corbusier, could find a compromise in a Howard term vision, based on a network of self-sufficient agglomerates of small-medium size held together by an efficient public transport system.
Acknowledgements
This work is founded by Sardinia Region with founds from PO Sardinia FSE 2007-2013 (L.R.7/2007)Promotion of scientific research and technological
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innovation in Sardinia. The author wishes to thank the Department of Architecture (University of Cagliari) and particularly, the architect G. Chiri to support the development of research and Carlotta Manca, for her help in translation.
References
[1] Indovina F., La debolezza della citt. Dalla citt diffusa allarcipelago metropolitano, Franco Angeli, Milano 2009. [2] United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, http://www.un.org/en/index.shtml. [3] Veron J., Lurbanizazzione del mondo, Il Mulino Paperbacks, Bologna, p.29; p.73, 2006. [4] Veron J., Lurbanizazzione del mondo, Il Mulino Paperbacks, Bologna, p.29; p.73, 2006. [5] Secchi B., La citt nel ventesimo secolo, Laterza, Roma, 2005. [6] Mumford L., La cultura delle citt, Einaudi, Milano, 2007. [7] Mumford L., La cultura delle citt, Einaudi, Milano, 2007. [8] Droege P., La citt rinnovabile. Guida completa ad una rivoluzione urbana, Edizioni Ambiente, Citt di Castello (PG), 2008. [9] Gibelli M.C., Forma della citt e costi collettivi: linsostenibile citt dispersa, Archivio di Studi Urbani e Regionali, 83, Franco Angeli Editore, Milano, p.19, 2005. [10] Droege P., La citt rinnovabile. Guida completa ad una rivoluzione urbana, Edizioni Ambiente, Citt di Castello (PG), 2008. [11] Falocco S., La ricostruzione di un concetto, Archivio di Studi Urbani e Regionali, 71-72, Franco Angeli Editore, Milano, p.45, 2001. [12] Indovina F., La citt sostenibile: sosteniamo la citt, Archivio di Studi Urbani e Regionali, 77, Franco Angeli Editore, Milano, p.5, 2003. [13] De Pascali Paolo, Citt ed energia. La valenza energetica dellorganizzazione insediativa, Franco Angeli, Milano, p. 250-118, 2008. [14] Ratti C., Baker N., Steemers K., Energy Consumption and urban texture, Energy and Buildings, Elsevier, 2004, online www.sciencedirect.com. [15] Magnaghi A., Il territorio dellabitare, Franco Angeli ed., Milano, p. 311, 1994. [16] Alberti M., Solera G.,Tsetsi V., La citt sostenibile, Franco Angeli, Milano, p. 109, 1994. [17] Butera F., Energia e sviluppo urbano sostenibile, Archivio di Studi Urbani e Rurali, 71-72, Franco Angeli Editore, Milano, p. 103, 2001. [18] Alberti M., Solera G.,Tsetsi V., La citt sostenibile, Franco Angeli, Milano, p. 109, 1994. [19] De Pascali Paolo, Citt ed energia. La valenza energetica dellorganizzazione insediativa, Franco Angeli, Milano, p. 250-118, 2008. [20] Santamouris M., Papanikolaou N., Livada I., Koronakis I., On the impact of urban climate on the energy consumption of buildings, Solar Energy, vol. 70, 3, Elsevier Science, pp. 201-216, 2001, online www.sciencedirect.com.

[21] De Pascali Paolo, Citt ed energia. La valenza energetica dellorganizzazione insediativa, Franco Angeli, Milano, p. 250-118, 2008. [22] De Pascali P., Energia, microclima e forma urbana, Gestione Energia, 3, p. 511, 2001, online www.fire-italia.it/. [23] Welbank M., The search for a sustainable urban form, The Compact City, ed. Jenks M., Burton E., Williams K., E&FN Spon, London and New York, p. 74-82, 1996. [24] Berrini M., Colonnetti A., Green Life_costruire citt sostenibili, Editrice Compositori, Bologna, p. 224, 2010. [25] Breheny M., The search for a sustainable urban form, The Compact City, ed. Jenks M., Burton E., Williams K., E&FN Spon, London and New York, p. 13-35, 1996. [26] Mumford L., Storia dellUtopia, Ed. Calderini, Bologna, 1969. [27] Occhiuto M., Verso la citt sostenibile. Lesperienza cinese di Huai Rou, Electa, Milano, 2007. [28] Owen D., GREEN Metropolis. La citt pi ecologica della campagna?, Egea, Milano 2010. [29] Zimmermann C., Lera delle metropoli, Il Mulino, Bologna 2004.
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Future projects on water resources for a sustainable urban development: a case study of Surat city of India
K. A. Chauhan1, J. P. Shah1, A. M. Pingle2 & A. K. Chauhan3
1 2
Department of Urban Planning, CED, S.V.NIT, Surat, Gujarat, India Department of Civil Engineering, MVPCOE, Nasik, India 3 Department of Civil Engineering, CKPCET, Surat, India
Abstract
The urban population in India has increased significantly from 62 million in 1951 to 285 million in 2001 and is estimated to grow around 540 million by the year of 2021. It would be touching 37% of the total population in next 15 years. The Indian urban population growth is nearly 41% in last decade. This directly means providing additional drinking water for around 65 million households as well as deciding on the number of administrative complexes. The city of Surat is a fast growing city and it is the 9th largest city of India as per Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JnNURM). The present population of Surat city is approximately 45 lacks including the floating population. The dream of achieving sustainable habitat could be possible only through a multi dimensional and inter disciplinary approach. Exploitation of natural resources along with the development of urban areas with or without the knowledge of planners is a matter of great concern in the context of sustainable development. Out of various natural resources that are exploited, the tapping of water resources and its impact on the habitat is studied in the paper. The study was conducted in and around Surat city of the Gujarat state. The futuristic projects by local government Surat Municipal Corporation (SMC) for the sustainable development of Surat is also included in accordance with what has been envisioned in the revised city development plan. The present paper focuses on planning principles and is a classic example for sustainable development in water resources planning. Keywords: water resources, sustainable development, futuristic project.
1 Introduction
The Millennium Development Goals created by the United Nations in the year 2000 hoped to generate an international effort to fight poverty and disease. One of the goals related to water is to reduce by half, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water. Currently there are over one billion people worldwide without access to potable water; the majority live in Africa and Asia. Water resource planning is essential in reversing this negative trend and developing feasible sources of water for domestic use that are aligned with local economic, social, cultural, and environmental conditions. Urban areas vary from city to city therefore, planning must be adopted specifically to the local context and should therefore consider the fact that as the population grows and settlements increase in size, it will begin to compete with neighbouring settlements. A simplified water supply network is an important infrastructure in urban areas of developing countries [1]. The term sustainable development first came to prominence in the World Conservation Union in 1980. It has achieved a new status with the publication of our common future, the Brudtland Report, in 1987 and has gained even greater attention since the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) held in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992 [2]. Of late, sustainable development has become one of those magic terms used by almost everybody though not necessarily in a proper way or in the right context. Some people believe that this concept will solve all our problems while others tend to be suspicious as to whether it really does anything meaningful. Construction activities which are imperatives for economic development is one area where tremendous exploitation of natural resources is taking place and often the deterioration caused on the environment, in the hinterlands, is left unchecked. The lack of proper water supply system, due to which direct exploitation of ground water by individual families, is another activity, which leads to the deterioration of water resources, within the urban areas.
2 Study area
Surat is one of the ancient cities on the Western coast of India. Surat city is located in the southern part of Gujarat state. The city lies on the bend of River Tapi, the western side of the Arabian Sea (meandering), as shown in Figure 2. This region has problematic black cotton soil. The climate of Surat city is hot and humid due to the location of the nearby sea. Due to the sea, salt water intrusion occurs. The summers are quite hot with temperatures ranging from 37.78C to 44.44C. the maximum humidity is about 80%. The rainy season is usually four months with an average rainfall of 1143mm. The wind is mostly from the sea towards the main city at 44 mt/sec.
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2.1 Growth trends In developing countries, the number of people living in towns and cities is growing rapidly both as a result of natural urban growth and because of immigration into towns and cities from rural areas. This will add significantly to the number of people living without clean drinking water. It will also cause more unemployment and poverty, widening the gap between urban rich and urban poor who lack access to a whole range of basic services besides clean water, including health care, sanitation, education, transport, adequate housing, security, information and justice. The municipal limits in Surat have increased from 112.27sq.km to 326.52sq.km in the year 2006. The city has been experiencing rapid growth in population during the past four decades. The growth rates have been one of the highest in the country.
Figure 1:
Growth trends of Surat city.
The high rate of growth experienced by the city over four successive decades has been a major feature in the citys growth which is shown in Figure 1, necessitating prompt responses in the supply of infrastructure. Surat has experienced a rapid population increase in the census decade. The population growth rate of Surat city is shown in Table 1. Table 1: Year Population (in Lakhs) Growth Rate% 1951 2.23 30.18 Population- growth rate for Surat. 1961 2.88 29.05 1971 4.72 63.75 1981 7.77 64.65 1991 14.99 93.00 2001 24.34 62.38 2011 45.00 (Est.,) 57.38 (Approx)
2.2 Overview of SMC water supply With the increase in area and population, the water supply served has decreased from 97% to 32.49% of its total populated area and from 95% to 79% of its population. The new area, which is not served, is mostly made up of agricultural land within the SMC limits. Under JnNURM water supply project has already been sanctioned and the works are under implementation. Apart from these the
Figure 2:
Surat urban area.
areas still to be covered with piped water supply are parts of Nana Varachha, Varachha, Bamroli, Adajan and a part of Limbayat, Jahangirpura- Jahangirabad, Ved, Dabholi, etc. These areas are at presently being served by water tankers owned by SMC [3]. The work of lying of pipeline network has already been started in these places, which will make 100 percent population and populated area coverage of the city under water supply network, a reality in the coming years. The corporation also caters to the water supply demand of the floating Population. At present gross 175 lpcd is being supplied to the population of the city. Due to the construction of Rander Water Works, water supply pipeline grid has been formed, which will ensure that there would be no disruption of water supply in any part of the city. Table 2: Water supply area and coverage. 326.515 108.92 32.49 32.47 78.54 918 760 175
Total area of Surat (sq. km) Area covered by piped water supply (Sq.km) % of area served Population coverage (lakhs) % of total population served Total water supply capacity (ground and surface) (MLD) Total water supplied (ground and surface) (MLD) Gross daily supply (lpcd)
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Table 3: Water Works Present Yield (in MLD) Varachha 30
Present yield of water works. Sarthana 280 Katargam 220 Rander 150 Total Present Yield 680
2.3 Future demand of water Total Water Demand Preliminary forecasted figures of water demand up to year 2041 have shown in the Figure 3. From the study its derived that by 2026 water demand will be about 1800 MLD and by 2041 water demand will be about 2400 MLD [4]. The city has been divided into six water zones. North, West, Central, East, South and South-West. In order to meet the requirements of the year 201121 additional distribution stations are proposed at Singanpore, Ved. Rander, Jahangirpur, Jahngirabad, Limbayat, Athwa, Althan, Sagarampura, Udhana and Bhestan. The demand for Water supply of different zone shown in the Table 4.
Figure 3:
Water demand and supply up to 2041.
Table 4: Zone Year 2001 2011 2021 West 79 131 180 S-W 64 118 167
Water demand zone wise. Demand (MLD) North Central South 107 162 239 137 151 165 138 195 240
East 145 183 219
Total 670 940 1210
3 Design input parameters

3.1 Average household size This is multiplied by the number of houses in an area to determine the design population in that area or contributing to the water leg. Results from the social survey will provide information on the average household size in the area to be provided with water. The Surat city has average household size considered 4.2. 3.2 Average per capita water consumption This is multiplied by the design population for any area to calculate the total amount of water used during a typical day. Information on average per capita water consumption may be available from meter readings. For Surat city the average per capita water consumption is 175 lpcd [5].
4 Design: over-riding parameters

4.1 Minimum water diameter It is necessary to specify a minimum water diameter. There is no theoretical reason why the minimum water diameter should not be 100 mm. Every effort should be made to introduce appropriate standards, but it may be necessary to accept a higher minimum diameter than is absolutely necessary. In such circumstances, it is best to seek what is possible rather than the ideal. 4.2 Minimum flow The recommended norms as per Town and Country Planning Organization for per capita supply are 135 lpcd minimum, avg. 180 lpcd and maximum 220 lpcd. 4.3 System sustainability The long-term sustainability of simplified water systems can be ensured by: A good partnership between the communities served by simplified water system and the water supply authority, Good design, Good construction, Good maintenance, an adequate but affordable, tariff structure.
5 Adaptive planning for water

The Surat city has undergone a vast change after the expansion of area in 2006. With the increase in area population and hence its water requirement has also increased drastically. Also for the water supply to industries has become an issue to SMC. The water intake presently for the whole city is done from only natural source that is Tapti River. By using motives of national water policy SMC has decided futuristic projects to fulfil future demand of water. E.g. Rubber Barrage dam, Kakrapar pipe line project, and river front development.
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Present National water policy: To maximize water conservation To maximize ground water recharging To prevent pollution in water To prevent salinity intrusion in ground water 5.1 Rubber barrage dam In the Surat municipal corporation budget 2010 it is decided to allot Rs. 120 crore for the construction of Rubber Barrage Dam. SMC will build a 580 metre wide air balloon structure barrage dam between Umra-PIplod at a cost of Rs 120 crore to create a 10-km-long sweet water lake in Tapi [6]. The Local Government has decided to go ahead with this long-pending project after receiving the irrigation department's advice that the rubber barrage structure was most suited for the city. This technology has been successful in the US, Japan, Australia and some European countries, but surprisingly since 1957 has not been used anywhere in India as shown in the Fig. 4 and salient features of Barrage dam shown in Table 5. Objectives of Rubber Barrage Dam Project: Long term planning for water supply requirement To prevent tidal silting To prevent river pollution To conserve the maximum excess water spilled released from Singapore weir To prevent salinity intrusion in ground water To develop water sports place To prevent encroachment in the river bed
Figure 4: Table 5:
Rubber barrage dam.
Salient features of the barrage dam. 10 km. 500 mt. 6 mt. 2 mt. 580 mt. 4.0 mt
Reservoir length Avg. Width Max. Depth Min. Depth Barrage dam length FRL of barrage dam

5.2 Kakrapar to Surat water supply pipeline project The river has gone polluted with more industrial wastes flowing illegally into it. Keeping in mind the future water requirements of Surat city, local body has taken a decision on fulfilling it from Kakrapar weir. This would be a project from Kakrapar weir to Surat having a total pipe length of 58 km. Due to the revised area and population scenario, revision in existing Master Plan of water supply, based on earlier city limit, became necessary [7]. Total project cost will be 25 crores, ductile iron pipe will be used. Design consideration: The pipeline should be as short in length as possible. The chance of leakages is more so maintenance at various points is required. The pressure needs to be maintained as that would create damage to the pipes and further lead to maintenance problem. Also the pipeline should have minimum crossing over from river. It can be seen from the Figure 5 that the distance approximately comes to around 35 to 40 km if the pipeline is connected via Sampura and further following NH 8 leading to Varachha which is shown in Fig. 5. The red line shows water supply from Kakrapar to Surat taken along the river and then along the NH to Varachha water works. The ultimate aim of fulfilling demand can be achieved.
Figure 5:
Pipeline proposed for water supply.
5.3 River front development The whole derivation out of this link itself gives us our identity An attempt to revive very strong link from our past which is somehow being lost in the modern world Revitalize the stretch which hold very strong reference point for the identity of the city of glory Uniqueness in the Ovara a point where the city gets chance to spend some time on their own with the purest form of element that is water Providing proper amenities and infrastructure for religious and festival occasions
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Deal with issue not only permitting to the physical landscape but also try to imbibe the ethnic identity. Present scenario of Tapi River Front shown in Figure 6 and how the future scenario of Tapi River Front will look is shown in Figure 7.
Existing embankment
Existing vegetation
Existing mosque
Condition of River Figure 6:
Vivekanand Bridge Existing scenario of Tapi river front.
Figure 7:
Future scenario of Tapi river front.
5.4 Sustainability of the Kakarapar-Surat pipeline project Distribution to villages will be possible by this project; More population will be cover under this project; Varachha treatment plant will get the raw water and so the capacity of this plant will be increased by large account.

5.5 Sustainability of river front development Issues of connecting road network; Present land use is backing towards River; Uneven and uncontrolled character of road edges; Lack of pedestrian friendly infrastructure; Preservation of River as a valuable natural resource and thereby improving quality of natural environment; Value addition to existing land use of open spaces and there by promotion of recreational hub.
5.6 Future project benefits It will not only benefit the social and economic status of the urban area, it will also improve the environmental condition of the watershed area. 5.6.1 Environmental benefits One of the main goals of urban water supply planning is to ensure that the negative environmental impacts of implementing a water source are minimized. Proper Rubber Barrage Dam structures reduce the erosive behavior of high velocity water travelling through streams; Running a simulation to develop ideal storage capacities for Rubber Barrage Dams minimizes the encroachment on the surrounding land; Properly sizing rainwater harvesting storage units minimizes the amount of natural resources used for construction; Finding feasible technical solutions other than drilling deep boreholes improves groundwater conditions about 75 sq.km areas; Domestic waste will be minimized, recreation land will be generated, aesthetic view will be more expressive, protection to water body will be provided. 5.6.2 Social benefits The following list describes the social benefits of involving the local population in the decision making process. Develops the capacity of the local Government to manage their own systems; Develops the leadership and communication skills of members of the community; and Provides employment to landless people, increasing their social status within the community; Improved water supply and quality minimizes the diseases caused by contaminated water; Population coverage will be around 8 lakhs of SMC in Domestic use, 0.5 lakhs in Agricultural activity of Surat Urban Development Authority (SUDA)region while 0.5 lakhs population and for the industrial use of Hajira Area Development Authority (HADA) region.
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5.6.3 Economic benefits Effective watershed management projects provide countless benefits for improving the standard of living for the resource-poor and disadvantaged sections of the community. Also, improving the water resources of the targeted regions increases the productivity of local farmers, hence increasing the crop profitability. The total costs of implementing potential waters sources can be compared to determine an economically viable source; The costs of sustaining potential water sources through operation and maintenance can be estimated for feasibility purposes; Physically these all projects will cover about 125 sq.km area of SMC, 25 sq.km of Surat Urban Development Authority (SUDA) and 50 sq.km of Hajira Area Development Authority (HADA).
6 Conclusion
Water has always been viewed as an abundant resource that is inherently sustainable in nature. This prevalent mentality has persisted to hinder the process of taking measures to preserve this vital resource. Even though water is used for many purposes, the most important catalyst for change is the knowledge that humans need water to survive. Watershed management projects are ideal in theory as well as Rubber Barrage dam, Kakrapar-Surat pipeline project and Tapi River Front project are already been approved by the State Government Authority. After the completion of all these projects around one fourth of the Surat city population will be covered for the different use as Domestic, Industrial and Agriculture purpose. So the ultimate aim of fulfilling demand of water can be achieved efficiently.
Acknowledgements
The authors are very grateful to all the policy makers and Technical officers of SMC for providing data and valuable guidance regarding the futuristic project work of the Surat city. Special thanks are also extended to Dr. S. M. Yadav for improving the manuscript substantially.
References
[1] Gadgil, A. (1998). 'Drinking water in developing countries', Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, Vol. 23, pp. 253-286. [2] Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), Government of India (1991). Drinking water (first Revision), IS number 10500, New Delhi. [3] Surat Municipal Corporation, City Development Plan-2006, Surat, Gujarat, India. [4] Amol Pingle, Dr. K.A. Chauhan (2011) Graduate Report on Water Supply Network of Surat city, SVNIT, Surat, Gujarat, India.

[5] Department of Drinking Water Supply, Government of India (1986). Guideline for implementation of accelerated rural water supply program, New Delhi. [6] CSWCRTI, Central Soil and Water Conservation Research and Training Institute (1982). 25 Year Research on Soil and Water Conservation in Southern Hilly High Rainfall Regions, ICAR Publishing, Udhagamandalam. [7] Jagruti Shah, Gaurang Desai, Dr. K.A. Chauhan (2011) Graduate Report on Futuristic Development project of Surat city, SVNIT, Surat, Gujarat, India.
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Conceptual spatio-temporal data modelling and land use change

L. A. Beser de Deus1, L. F. C. F. Silva2 & M. A. V. Freitas1
1 2
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Military Institute of Engineering, Brazil
Abstract
Space and time are fundamental elements that enable us to understand the phenomena evolution. There are several applications and studies demands that require both concepts: the development and the evolution of areas, the occupation and land use, the search and research for elements and the geographic features modified by the landscape, landscape alterations caused by earthworks, rectification of the hydrography, city planning, etc. Space-time studies are essential to establish the understanding of such evident integration of these two terms, frequently analyzed in a disconnected and isolated way. Nowadays, most of the GIS Geographic Information Systems available consider the entities representation in only one instant of time, usually the present. The main subject on the association of geographical data with time is not due to its modification or update, but for the possibility to register past states. Moreover, specifically about GIS, to use it as a technological instrument for accomplishment of space-time analysis, and not only space as it is being used thoroughly. This kind of analysis is only possible within the implementation of spatio-temporal models that consider not only apparent entities and its geometrical shapes, but its processes and transformations. In this context, a bibliographic review in the scientific literature was made to establish the state of art on the temporal characteristics that allowed the structuring of a conceptual space-time model using geographical and historical data for structuring of a TGIS (Temporal GIS). TGIS will support studies aimed at understanding the changes of land use, transformations of public spaces in urban areas. This can be applied to a project which has been developed at the Military Institute of Engineering in a park called Campo de Santana (Guanabara Bay Basin), located on Republic Square,

downtown Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), showing its appreciation and depreciation processes throughout its history. Keywords: GIS, conceptual model, spatio-temporal applications, land use change, city planning.
1 Introduction
Some studies need temporary aspects for analyses accomplishment and inferences about a specific phenomenon. These studies can be done through tools that are useful when a decision has to be taken, such as, the GIS (Geographic Information Systems) that have been conceived as analysis, planning and decision tools about the geographical space. According to Thom and Fornari (page 13) [1], time is an essential concept for the understanding and modelling of space phenomena in several applications, such as: biophysical sciences, epidemic researches, political, social and economic sciences and several applications of real time for management and planning. The use of a space-time model in GIS increases its capacity of analysis, facilitating the study of the evolution of geographical phenomena. Besides, there is other more specific applicability that can be identified when temporal dimension is incorporated to GIS, for instance, forest resources management, urban and regional planning, transportation, and so on. However, nowadays, the majority of available GIS consider the representation of entities as if the world was only a particular moment in time, which is usually the present. Medeiros and Botelho (page 1) [2] mention that in spite of the fact that GIS are able to analyse a great amount of data in an integrated and flexible way, they are still unable to represent the changes that happen along the time, assuming a limited and an instantaneous vision of the reality they model. Since the beginning of the nineties, studies were done about the need of insertion of temporal information in GIS. In Langran [3], it is possible to analyse some technical requirements for the insertion of time in GIS. In relation to time representation, what can be taken to the understanding of this representation in GIS are the cartographic notions associated to space-time representations, as mentioned by Vasiliev [4] and Peuquet [5, 6] and again by Langran [3] about the cartographic time. So, the conceptual and practical construction of a Temporal GIS also could be supported by studies about visualization of the aspects of space-time phenomena, focusing aspects about simbology in space-time maps and data presentation using visualization aspects or cartographic animation as a resource, suggested by some authors, for example, Visvaligam [7] and Peterson [8]. However, currently, there are still several difficulties on working with temporary phenomena, specifically concerning the modelling, storage, spacetemporal analysis and the representation of geographical data. Peuquet (page 101) [5] mentions that still remains a lot to be done before a temporal geographic information system can truly be accomplished. So to speak, the best
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thing to be done would be to join temporary dimension, even if in a conceptual way, to this instrument. The importance of the study about time in GIS is reflected on the capacity that this instrument will have to guide a decision making in advance. It will also provide a dynamic space understanding. Through space-time models, considering the knowledge of processes and flows, it will be possible to subsidize the planning, management and decision on territory, producing diagnoses or even prognoses that the space-time analyses allow.
2 Goals
Propose a conceptual space-time model using geographical and historical data for structuring of a Temporal Geographic Information System (TGIS), that is also known as Historical Geographic Information System (HGIS) according to its application. TGIS or HGIS will support studies aimed at understanding the changes of land use, transformations and / or development of public spaces in urban areas. Thus, this can be applied to a project which has been developed at the Military Institute of Engineering in a park called Campo de Santana, located on Republic Square, downtown Rio de Janeiro, showing its appreciation and depreciation processes throughout its history.
3 Spatio-temporal conceptual models for GIS

Models are simplified representations of reality, and this process of representation of reality involves abstractions, generalizations and approximations due to the complexity of real world. According to Corra [9], there are several ways to express the process of modelling or the solution of a real world problem. One of them, according to Elmasri and Navathe [10], is possible through the stages of a database project that can be associated with different types of models. Within this context, there are the conceptual models that provide concepts such as entities, attributes and relationships that are close to the way many users perceive data [9]. A conceptual model should allow a direct mapping between what is perceived in the real world and its computational representation and, also, should be free from the constraints on implementation. Therefore, as Pinheiro and Fornari [11] have already discussed, the mapping of real-world information to a computing environment is achieved through the process of conceptual data modelling. According to Rocha [12], in the conceptual phase of modelling, it is important to express the reality graphically. However, as the reality of a TGIS involves the time dimension and the space dimension, there is a lot of information to be modelled, which tends to make the data model rather complex. The use of symbols (called stereotypes or pictograms) is an interesting way to introduce these dimensions visually, allowing a more complete symbolic representation. Recently, several conceptual data models have been presented. They try to contemplate the spatial and temporal aspects of data, depending on the purpose

for which it is intended. However, none did become consensus and they are widely used by designers of GIS software. Some existing models for spatiotemporal GIS can be cited: GeoOOA, Modul-R, MADS, OOTGIS and STER. Especially about the Modul-R, this will be detailed below. 3.1 Perceptory (MODUL-R) Caron and Bdard [13] describe an extension of the ER model (EntityRelationship) for urban geographic applications, called Modul-R Formalism (The term MODUL-R is unambiguous: MODUL implies a modular modelling structure while R signifies an integrated modelling of reality), to address the following requirements: spatial reference, time reference, database complexity and dichotomy between data and processes. In addition, the Modul-R is a conceptual level formalism adopted for the database space-time. The main feature of Modul-R Formalism is its ability to propose, in a unified way, the modelling of complex references, space and time through the use of modules for each context of the project [1, 12, 14]. The project was initially developed by cole Polytechnique Fedrale of Lausanne and Laval University and then it eventually evolved into an objectoriented approach (OO) and the use of the UML formalism (Unified Modelling Language) [15]. It may become the Perceptory [1, 12, 14]. Thus, the Perceptory is the evolution of OO Modul-R. UML is a modelling language and not a method. Vieira [16] cites that the basic difference between a language and a method is that the method indicates do's, how to do, why do and when do. Therefore, the method presents direct implications with a particular organization in terms of objectives to be achieved. On the other hand, the language consists of notation and rules of semantics and syntax to express the models that comprise the method (Erikson and Penker in Vieira) [16]. Nowadays, the project Perceptory is maintained by Laval University that has been developing a visual tool for modelling of applications in addition to a model of spatio-temporal data. 3.2 The choice of perceptory To this extent, the project Perceptory did become suitable for the construction of the proposed model for its urban application and the possibility of space-time representation. For the representation and understanding of the model, the UML formalism was and is essential because most of the model uses this language as formal definition. The study of UML is presented in a very dense and complex way. Moreover, more information about the representation language for modelling UML (Unified Modelling Language), notations and rules, which can aid the understanding of the model, are found in Rumbauch et al. [17], Furlan [18], Heuser [19], Vieira [16] and Bdard [20].
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3.3 Perceptory design in practice The modelling of spatial elements and space-time in Perceptory is possible due to the use of UML extension called stereotypes or pictograms. All information about the structure of Perceptory, such as, classes, attributes, relationships, the association (characterized by a semantic relation), aggregation (relation expressed by the verb to have), the composition (relation expressed by the verb to compose), the generalization, specialization, notes, packages and others can be viewed in Bdard [20]. Here the focus will be on the temporal or spatialtemporal and on some aspects associated with them. There are two basic temporal concepts in Perceptory: existence and evolution rules. The concept of existence is used in the object and sets the time of its life. Its boundaries are birth and death of the object. The concept of evolution is applicable when the object state changes. The evolution can be characterized descriptive when considering the exchange of the attributes values of the object or of the space type when the values of exchange are maintained at the level of location and shape of the object mapping [1, 12, 20]. Concerning the issue, a set of stereotypes (pictograms) was created: spatial (to compose the geometries of the modelled objects spatial form of objects), temporal to compose the temporalities (regarding the existence and evolution the latter combined with spatial pictograms) of the modelled objects (Figure 1).
Figure 1:
Positional semantics (Perceptory).
4 Case study using Perceptory

The present study of a proposed case uses the Perceptory as a tool for structuring the conceptual model. This case study may intend a space-time application of this instrument within an urban area in order to consolidate the first stage of a TGIS building that, in this case, seeks the building of a geographic-historic conceptual model.

4.1 Study area and location Considering temporal aspects, the area to be modelled is called Campo de Santana, located on Republic Square, downtown Rio de Janeiro. The purpose of this choice may be the understanding of its spatial dynamic in different time frames. Campo de Santana is an urban green area [21] that, within a conceptual hierarchy, is fitted as a public space. Figure 2 may illustrate the changes that occurred in this area over 500 years approximately.
Figure 2:
The evolution of Campo de Santana (15022002) [22].
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4.2 Problem The conceptual model schema will focus on aspects of social and spatial appreciation and depreciation over the history of the public space of Campo de Santana. This area in particular is regarded as the centre of Imperial Brazil (Nineteenth Century), where the most important buildings of this political season were located. And still today, with some important buildings in its vicinity, for example, Duque de Caxias Palace and the house where Marshal Deodoro da Fonseca lived. During the twentieth century, this centre was losing relative position simultaneously with the beginning of a process of degradation of public property, invasions of certain buildings and the devaluation of the spatial area. In summary, it deals with a spatial area full of historical information, where its spatial dynamic was modified in specific and not identified time intervals. From this scenario, some questions arise and they can be answered or addressed by a TGIS. Consequently, it may be possible to observe the idea of movement and process in all the questions that are about the study area and will be presented below: How and when was the degradation of public property with the loss of the relative position of Campo de Santana (historical periods)? Where and when did the uses that valued the area go? When is specifically the loss of centrality? How did the dynamic of objects with their actions happen? What are the periods of the highest and the lowest value of this public space? How is it possible to get the current scenario of the Field and the changes that marked this area? Then, it seems to be appropriate to choose the area to conduct the conceptual modelling, considering spatial and temporal aspects. Most of the information that supported the process of conceptual modelling of Campo de Santana was taken from a diagnosis [23] on the study area. In the diagnosis, it was possible to establish restrictions in order to isolate the problem (phase of reality model) and, also, to identify various agents and events that marked the history of this public space, for instance, changes of toponomy, historical landscape, changes in the physical environment, socioeconomics, cultural aspects, management of public property and so on and so forth. This diagnosis did enable the cataloguing of over one hundred events that happened in the study area throughout its history (in the last five hundred years). 4.3 Modelling considerations This section will propose some considerations about the case study that did guide the construction of the conceptual model diagram inside the Perceptory, and therefore, they must be submitted: Navigability: it can be mentioned that the processes that occur in space do not act only in one direction, acting as reflection and condition, so bidirectional.

Temporality: the objects and the actions (man) of Campo de Santana are gathered in a logic that is, at the same time, the logic of past history and the logic of today. Then, it was necessary to instantiate not only bygone events as well as current situations to characterize the temporality of the model. Inseparability: the geographical space, stage (resulting / determinant) of the historical events of Campo de Santana, may be conceptualized as a system of entities and a system of actions. It is worthy to highlight that entities and actions are inseparable. A separate analysis of these systems can mask the study of the proposed space-time [24]. Complexity: each modelled object is itself a system operating systematically. Examples similar to the supermarket, the shopping centre or a built-up area may prove the existence of complex and systemic objects that connect themselves to other systems [24]. Scale: the concerned model portrays the reality in an intra-urban scale of a public space. However, just as some temporal events must be linked to other temporalities, mostly, the fact that triggered particular case happened due to previous cases. A similar fact also occurs with space. Then, the social and spatial dynamic depends not only on internal agents of the field (inner scale), but also on external agents (outer scale) which interfere more or less intensely in the spatial organization of the concerned area. These external agents can be located very close to the Field, for example, the case of adjacent local trade or, more distant, a political agent of the federal power sphere. In this case, proximity does not define the intensity of the agent's action. Space and its agents: public space, which is based on this case study, is the accessible place to all citizens and where an audience gathers: political / urban, cultural (religious), economic, social, historical, environmental and geographic agents that constitute a society. And so, they characterize the present agents of the model. Classes: in the modelling, the classes do not only represent entities of objects, but fundamentally, actions. In other words, the given focus refers to the processes or to process modelling. Restrictions: The restrictions allow an approximation to reality. When Santos [24] states that the categories of space analysis are disjunctive, he presupposes that any restriction might be applied to them. These restrictions are not visible in the diagram, but rather inserted into the conceptual model within the Perceptory. As a resource, text notes were used to indicate the presence of restriction. Attributes: the term attributes (...) means that they are not complete for that class or possibility to enter any more piece of information.
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5 Proposed conceptual model

5.1 Presentation of proposed conceptual model Below (Figure 3), part of the STS-CAMPO DE SANTANA (Spatio-Temporal Schema of Campo de Santana Park) may be shown and the suggested conceptual model can be verified in a preliminary way. It is entitled Conceptual SpatioTemporal Model of Appreciation and Devaluation of Campo de Santana to be used in TGIS. This was built in Perceptory (Version 2003 Available freeware version in Bdard) [20] running on Microsoft Visio Standard 2002 (Trial version of 30 days).
Figure 3:
Part of the STS Campo de Santana.

5.2 Description of proposed conceptual model As it was evidenced, Perceptory is a tool that consists of a palette of drawings manufacturers and, also, a data dictionary implemented in Microsoft Access system. Perceptory has a utility to generate automatically the database code skeleton for commercial GIS and universal servers. Thus, it is possible generate, specifically, a skeleton code for the Oracle 8i DBMS (Database Management System) [25]. Perceptory uses the terminology of UML and standards ISOTC211-19107 Geographic Information Spatial Schema and ISOTC21119109 Geographic Information Temporal Schema to define the geometries and temporalities. As a result, the project Perceptory, that is the basis of the proposed conceptual model, generated a file extension mdb (Microsoft Access) that refers to a meta-model (using a metadata structure), responsible for documentation and description of the elements used in the model, through a data dictionary. In this, all the elements of the conceptual model are described from a table structure, where there are classes, attributes, relationships, references and semantics of the produced diagram. Thus, there is the description of the mentioned components in the model explicitly and implicitly [1, 12, 20]. Thus, we can compute, in a quantitative manner, the number of classes, relationships and attributes, and also the existing interfaces between them that are described too. It could be mentioned that there are about 80 classes, 160 relationships and 174 attributes, showing the amount of data to be worked. Qualitatively, the classes refer to objects and processes (justifying the temporal theme) while the attributes refer to characteristics, which are also subject to space-time change, specified in the model. Finally, the relationships are also subject to changes. These, to be represented temporally, must be transformed into classes to facilitate the representation of the temporal symbol.
6 Final considerations
The reality of TGIS presents aspects of time and space and it involves a great number of data that must be considered in an integrated way in the spatiotemporal modelling, making this process and the created product complex. A proposal given by Rocha [12] is the use of stereotypes or pictograms to simplify the space-time modelled reality. Then, in order to support spatio-temporal aspect, a data model should show buildings indicating where, in the class diagram, these aspects can be captured. The Perceptory allows inclusion, specifically, of the temporal dimension in various levels, such as, class, attribute and relationships since these three principal dimensions express in different levels of representation of the modelled reality and the time is manifested in each one of them. The construction phase of the Conceptual Spatio-Temporal Model introduced important concepts for the conceptual temporal modelling of data. Besides, it can identify the elements in a GIS that may be possible to timing and as this one should be represented. Spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal stereotypes have
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been described allowing that, in conceptual modelling of data, it could be possible to identify which represented elements may have or not the temporal capacity. Through this solution, it was possible to facilitate the visualization, allowing an identification of temporal elements in an easy, direct, concise and clear way. Thus, in conclusion, it may be considered that more theoretical and practical studies are needed, involving the project Perceptory objectively, in order to continue this project, which has only started, to proceed with the construction of a TGIS. There is another criticism focused on analysis and generated products, in this case, by a TGIS. It is worthy to mention that models, specifically space-time, may model and reduce the reality. Moreover, they can act as advisors of the performed studies and projects. However, it is not recommended to consider these models as faithful portraits of reality, or totals. Since this is subjective and, in some cases, unique and too complex. Do not forget that the initial process of modelling is the perception of the fact. It becomes the phenomenon, by the researcher, for which he observed epistemologically with categories of predetermined analysis. Braudel (p. 37) [26] states about the question of models that it is not against them, but against the use people make of them, believed that they are allowed to do.
References
[1] Thom, L. H. & Fornari, M. R. Estudo de banco de dados temporais espaciais. Trabalho para Disciplina CMP 161. Sistemas de Informao Geogrfica. Prof. Dr. Cirano Iochpe. UFRGS, 2000. [2] Medeiros, C. B. & Botelho, M. A. Tratamento do Tempo em SIG. GIS Brasil 96, 1996. p. 534-544. [3] Langran, G. Time in Geographic Information Systems. London/ Washington, DC: Taylor & Francis, 1993. 189p [4] Vasiliev, I. R. Mapping Time. In.: Cartographica, monography 49, maio, 1997. [5] Peuquet, D. Time in GIS and geographical databases. In: Geographical Information Systems: Principles, Techniques, Management and Applications. P. A. Longley, M. F. Goodchild, D. J. Maguire, D. W. Rhind, eds. New York: Wiley, 1999. p. 91-103. [6] Peuquet, D. Representations of Space and Time. New York: Guilford Publications, 2002. [7] Visvaligam, M. Visualisation in GIS, Cartography and VISC. In.: Visualization in Geographical Information Systems. Eds.: Hearnshaw, H. M.; Unwin, D. Wiley, cap. 3, 1994. p. 18-25. [8] Peterson, M. P. Interactive and Animated Cartography. Prentice Hall: New Jersey, 1995. 257p. [9] Corra, D. C. Sistema de Informaes Geogrficas na Mobilizao Cientfica e Tecnolgica da Fora Terrestre. Rio de Janeiro: IME. Dissertao de Mestrado, 2000.

[10] Elmasri, R.; Navathe, S.B. Fundamentals of Database Systems, Second Edition. Addison Wesley, 1994. pp. 873. [11] Pinheiro, S. F.; Fornari, M. R. Implementao de um Modelo Conceitual Temporal e Espacial Utilizando o SGBD Oracle. ULBRA. http://www.ulbra.tche.br/download/documentos/publicacoes/fornariseminco-2002.pdf. [capturado em 2010]. [12] Rocha, L. V. Geo-Frame-T: Um Framework Conceitual Temporal para Aplicaes de sistemas de Informao Geogrfica. Dissertao de Mestrado. Porto Alegre: PPGC da UFRGS, 2001. [13] Caron, C. & Bdard, Y. Extending the Individual Formalism More Complete Modeling of Urban Spatially Referenced Data. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, v.1, 1993. p. 337-346. [14] Rocha, L. V. Aspectos Temporais em Sistemas de Informaes. Porto Alegre: CPGC da UFRGS, 2000. Trabalho Individual. 67p. [15] Booch, G. et al. The Unified Modeling Language User Guide. Menlo Park: Addison-Wesley, 1999. [16] Vieira, A. J. B. Modelagem espao-temporal de fenmenos topogrficos. Plano de Tese. Curitiba: UFPR, 2001. [17] Rumbauch, J. et al. Modelagem e Projetos Baseados em Objetos. Rio de Janeiro: Campus, 1994. [18] Furlan, J. D. Modelagem de Objetos atravs da UML the Unified Modeling Language. So Paulo: Makron Books, 1998. [19] Heuser, C. A. Projeto de Banco de Dados. 4. ed. Instituto de Informtica da UFRGS. Editora Sagra Luzzato, 2001. 203p. [20] Bdard, Y. Welcome on the Website of Perceptory. http://sirs.scg.ulaval.ca/ perceptory/enewindex.asp [capturado em 2010]. [21] Carvalho, P. F. Repensando as reas verdes urbanas. In.: Territrio & Cidadania, ano III, nmero 2, dezembro, 2003. [22] IPP. Rio 500 anos Uma janela no tempo sobre a cidade maravilhosa. Rio de Janeiro: Prefeitura da Cidade do Rio de Janeiro, 2002. CD ROM. [23] Beser de Deus, L. A. Evoluo da Paisagem do Campo de Santana Centro/RJ Atravs de Representaes Cartogrficas. Estgio de Campo III. Rio de Janeiro: UFRJ, 2003. [24] Santos, M. The Nature of Space. So Paulo: Hucitec, 1996. [25] Lisboa Filho, J. & Pereira, M. Desenvolvimento de uma ferramenta CASE para o modelo UML-GeoFrame com suporte para padres de anlise. In: Anais do Simposio Brasileiro de Geoinformtica (GEOINFO), 4, CaxamMG. Belo Horizonte: SBC, 2002. [26] Braudel, F. History and the Social Sciences. 6. ed. Lisboa: Presena, 1990.
Section 3 Sustainability in the built environment
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Real estate crisis and sustainability in Spain

J. L. Miralles i Garcia
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Polytechnic University of Valencia, Spain
Abstract
The last real estate cycle in Spain is a paradigmatic example of non sustainable development. The extraordinary urban development in the 1997-2007 period produced an extraordinary economic growth based on land speculation and housing. The end of the cycle generates a very severe economic crisis, one that is the most serious economic crisis in a long time. This process has economic, social and environmental repercussions; from the economic point of view Spain has a temporally increased its GDP. The real estate activity has generated houses, and land able to be developed, but without use and without a market. From the social point of view, the Spanish people have changed their system of moral value. It takes as an ideal rapid enrichment without effort and without producing useful goods and services, and from the environmental point of view, on building over an extensive area without use. It is an irreversible process of rural land transformation. All land conversion is carried out by urban planning; the landscape changes and urban sprawl increases. Keywords: urban planning, landscape architecture, landscape ecology, landscape management, sustainability, public participation.
1 Introduction
Spain has seen a process of economic development that is clearly unsustainable. The process occurred mainly between 1997-2007 and a large number of houses were built in this period. In Figure 1 you can see the number of visas given for construction for housing, and in Figure 2 you can see the number of houses built for each year. In 2002-2007 there were more visa granted for construction in Spain than in France and Germany combined. The process is especially intensive in the case of coastal and tourist areas as in the Autonomous Community of Valencia [1].
911,568 786,257 690,206 594,820 561,186 575,545 739,658 688,851
299,551 146,640 127,543
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Origin: Ministerio de Fomento (Spain). Figure 1: Visas for construction work: housing number.
641419 615072 585583 524479 496785 458683 416682 365660 366775 253377 321177 242122 275596 272333 219553 205404 205893 387075
257443
Origin: Instituto Nacional Estadstica (Spain). Figure 2: Number of housing builds for each year.
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The mortgage loans without guarantees of return and the speculative value of land fed the process. In this situation the market demand is fixed by speculative processes. For saving banks, in February 2011, the Banco de Espaa has determined a figure of 217 billion as the financial sectors exposure to real estate development and construction as potentially problematic, comprising the following [2]: - Standard loans under surveillance, 28 billion. - Doubtful loans, 28 billion. - Foreclosures, 44 billion. As a reference, the GDP of Spain is about 1.000 billion. In Spain the expansive cycle began about 1997. The financial global problems began around 2007 and that marks the end of the expansive cycle. The effect of the problems was to generate a moment of shock. The people had accepted urban expansion and speculative processes as a normal situation and so the new situation created surprise. In coastal and tourist areas, as in the Autonomous Community of Valencia [3], the process is very intensive because an important kind of economic activity is based on construction. They are a paradigmatic example of unsustainable development. By definition, unsustainable development has an end date, while sustainable development is maintained over time. Spain has seen two expansive real estate cycles and the corresponding crash. In 1960-1972 Spain had their first economic expansive cycle and the first speculative real estate cycle. This cycle is associated to monetary input of foreign investment and tourism. So the more important urban expansion occurred on the coasts, and the processes of land speculation focused on the coast, for example in Valencia. The regressive economic phase lasted from 1972 to 1985. The second growth cycle occurs in the period 1985-1991. In this case the monetary input was caused by the entry of Spain into the EU, European Economic Community at that time. This cycle has been studied in detail for Naredo [4]. The crash of the cycle occurred in 1991 and the regressive phase was very short. It was overcome by the devaluation of the currency (the peseta at that time). The regressive period lasted until approximately 1997. None of these cycles were as severe as today. The model of access to housing for these processes is based on private ownership of land and home ownership. There was never a social housing policy based on public land and housing for rent. These two real estate cycles generated a certain experience of these processes for the agents involved: local authorities, developers, owners and people in general. Probably people assumed that these cycles were normal and therefore, if there was another cycle, had to take advantage of the speculative growth cycle for personal enrichment. The conditions for a new growth cycle begin to occur about 1997.
2 Phases of unsustainable development process

If we follow the process 6 phases can be identified which you can see in Figure 4. These six phases characterize the process of unsustainable development. The phases were identified by direct observation of the process in Spain and, particularly in the Autonomous Community of Valencia. The phases fit the evolution of major socio-economic indicators that characterize the real estate cycle or, in general, any development process based on consumption of stocks or reserves.
2,500.0 2,000.0 1,500.0 1,000.0 500.0 0.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Origin: Ministerio de Fomento (Spain). Figure 3: 2.1 Initial phase The cycle begins when stakeholders identify the possibility to consume stock. In our case the bank began a practice of lending mortgages. These mortgage loans had as a guarantee a very high percentage of the value of the home. In fact the bank began to lend above the long-term recovery. By mortgages funds (generation of financial products sold to other banks in the international market), banks could continue the lending process. In Valencia and Spain, the bank began a process of unsecured loans of return flow generating an artificial money supply. Really a process of stored capital spending because a return was doubtful. This situation will always occur if there is a consumption of resources, for example oil [5]. Oil is a non-renewable natural capital. Any consumption means reduced stock. Therefore, necessarily, any economic development based on its consumption is not sustainable. This situation can be corrected if one takes the precaution of estimating future and current sacrifices being made to ensure the
Free price houses evolution (/m2).
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Objectiveconditionsaregeneratedforstartthecycle
INITIAL
CAPITAL CONSUMPTION
Funds,stocksorreserves(monetaryornatural)consumption Increasecashflows ShorttermincreaseinGDP
TOP CONSUMPTION
Maximalfunds,stocksorreservesconsumption InSpain,achievedin2006when911.568houseswerestarted
Itwarnsoftheriskofdefaultonhomeloans. Interbankmarketisclosedbecauseofdistrust CRASH MONETARY Cashflowisclosedbyamixedsetofcauses FLOWS Theeconomicactivityinothersectorsstartstoactivate NowitbeginstooccurintheSpanishcase CreatesanewsteadystatewithalowestGDP
NEW EQUILIBRIUM
CAPITAL INCREASE
Increasecapital,stockorreservesforalongtime Orchangethesourceofresources
Figure 4:
The phases of unsustainable development.
balance of consumption in the future (improve efficiency, find other resources, to change urban activity ... in general applying the most efficiency and/or new technology). The initial phase was produced in Spain between 1994 and 1999. The unemployment rate in Spain was 15%. The average house price was stable at 700-800 /m2. The number of building visas for new housing was 300.000350.000 houses / year. They are data for a relative balance. In this time, forms of private management of urban development were generated that streamlined the administrative process. For example the urban development agent was regulated in Valencian law [6]. 2.2 Capital consumption phase After first phase we have a process of capital (stocks or reserves) consumption. At this stage we have a process of economic growth with high annual increases in GDP, which is mainly based on the consumption of a stock. In our case, to consume the capital stock of money through loans to houses buyers and urban

developers. The cash flow produced generates a Ponzi scheme with feedback. That is, the loans awarded push up the prices of housing and land. The price increase encourages investors and banks to make more loans which in turn push up prices further. During this period in Spain, house prices rose about 15% annually while GDP or wages rose about 3-4% annually. 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1987TII 1988TIII 1989TIV 1991TI 1992TII 1993TIII 1994TIV 1996TI 1997TII 1998TIII 1999TIV 2001TI 2002TII 2003TIII 2004TIV 2006TI 2007TII 2008TIII 2009TIV Origin: Instituto Nacional de Estadstica (Spain). Figure 5: Quarterly unemployment rate in 19872009 (Spain). In this period, for urban developers, many loans were obtained by evaluating the land expectation value for future urban development. That is why many loans are risky assets. The increased cash flow generated a spectacular production of housing and a spectacular increase in land prices and housing (see Figures 1, 2 and 3). All stakeholders approve the process: - The landowners note that effortlessly the land price go up from a lower agricultural value of 1 euro/m2 to 180 euro/m2 as maximum value for developable land. Most landowners are small local owners integrated to a large part of local society. - The urban developers can benefit from up to 30-40% if they get to buy land cheap and sell the same land expensively for housing. - The builders and the construction sector find a very big source for work. - The local government gets the land free transfer of public facilities (roads, green areas and facilities and, usually, 10% of urban profit as building land). The urban development becomes a source of revenue for local government. - Houses buyers, for residence or investment, are also in favour because they have easy credit. So the greater part of people and democratically elected governments (with short-term interests) are approving of the process. But the process has generated a major transformation of rural land to urban land. This transformation is irreversible; sometimes natural heritage has not been preserved. Any transformation is by urban planning but sometime environmental
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documents for urban planning have been used to justify decisions already taken by agents involved. Against major economic interests, environmental issues are minimized or not considered. Some NGOs were created to oppose the urban development of certain areas and defend public environmental interests. In Valencia, the most representative case is the movement (with the name Per LHorta) for preservation of the irrigated region around Valencia. This movement promoted in 2001 a legislative initiative for protection which obtained 118,000 signatures of support. The proposal was rejected by the Valencian Parliament. The two major political parties expressed their opposition to the initiative. After the Valencian government promoted a Special Plan for Protection, but it has not yet been approved [7]. This period lasted about 8 years between 1999 and 2007 and has produced a set of social and economic changes: - The capital is being spent. At this time debt has been increasing and capital decreasing, but this process is imperceptible. - In parallel people have been strong consumers of goods and services easily accessible. Thus people have been in a situation of abundance and they think it will always be. People lose the value of work and think that isnt necessary to work to obtain goods and services. - There was a building asset (land and housing) with speculative value. The people have a sense of wealth. It is thought that the possession of this heritage guarantees wealth. - People who got rich in a few years by land speculation became socially ideal. It changes the value system and the success is associated with rapid enrichment. - The productive activities with low relative profitability i.e. 5-10% decrease because real estate development is much more lucrative. - The process in this phase generates continued increases in housing prices, about 10-18% annually. The bank makes loans even above the value of the mortgaged property based in the expectation of increased value. - Expansion of political corruption. It can obtain great benefits if the local government change permitted uses from rural land to developable urban land. We can say that the private ownership of land for urban development combined with private management for urban development have been factors that have facilitated personal enrichment by speculative activities against environmental public interest. Often, environmental security instruments have not met their objectives. 2.3 Top consumption phase The Capital Consumption Phase ends when it reaches a maximum beyond which prices cannot grow because there is no ready market to buy. So the housing is no longer a good investment and the speculative process stops. 2006 saw the first signs of exhaustion of the cycle. Worldwide, the cycle stopped when the international banking realised that some international real estate funds were doubtful. It created distrust between

banks, and the interbank market stopped. Spanish banks cannot sell more mortgage funds in international market. From this moment the Spanish banks set strict conditions for granting mortgage loans. These circumstance occurred in 2007. However, real estate activity to continue to complete houses has begun. This is a normal connection between real estate cycles and economic cycles. Normally the real estate cycle end 1 or 2 years after the end of the economic cycle. This has happened in Spain (see Figures 1 and 2). At the time of cycle changes, the capital consumption is maximal. In Spain the maximum housing construction occurs in 2006 with 911.568 housing starts in Spain. In Valencia 125.877 dwellings were started in that year. 2.4 Crash of monetary flows phase The cycle crashes when the speculative money flows are broken. These flows are broken when the international banking checks that cannot recover the investment in subprime mortgages. Also the amount of capital at risk isnt known. Then the interbank market closed in 2007. The Spanish bank stopped loans for real estate initiatives, and as an important part of activity of housing and land without a market, the level of monetary liquidity is low, so the banks also fail to lend for other activities. Also, they fail to lend to the public administration, especially the municipalities which have based their budgets on income derived from real estate. So there was a domino effect of business closures. At this time there is a fall of housing demand. Housing production fell and the unemployment in the sector increased because activity gradually ended. Central government attempts to mitigate the effects by social assistance and promotion of public works. The public debt increased (by increasing costs and declining revenue.) In two years the budget deficit increases sharply. All this combined produces a decrease in cash flow and payments for completed works. Table 1: Debt Spain, 2010. Origin: Banco de Espaa. Debt ( billions) Public Administrations Central Administration Regional Government and Local Government Families Enterprises TOTAL EXTERN DEBT Mortgage Other IBEX group Other 450 150 680 220 590 720 2.810 1.780
Debt per capita 62444 /inh 39500 /inh
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From the social point of view, it is generally considered that boom situation will return. After 8 years of real estate expansion, people think generally that's the normal situation and the crisis will be a temporary situation. So stakeholders expect a new housing boom and they are prepared for it. There is a state of expectation and no decisions are made for a change of economic model. At the end of 2010 it is estimated that in Spain there are still between 800,000 and 1.5 million new houses for sale. In addition there are large tracts of developed land but without buildings, especially on the coast. The transformation of land and the landscape is irreversible. In 2010 the EU requires Spain to control and reduce the deficit. Simultaneously, the private sector gradually stabilizes but does not generate employment. In 2010 the Spanish savings banks has 23 billion of foreclosed real estate in land and 21 billion of completed housing and houses under construction [8]. The savings banks (and also others banks) have a risky asset in land for urban development. There has been no reinvestment of capital accumulated. There has been no accumulation of capital by the bank. Social protection systems have avoided extreme degradation of the living conditions of people, especially the unemployed population. 2.5 New equilibrium phase In the Spanish case it can be said that the adjustment period of private economic activity took place between 2007 and 2010. Probably the adjustment of public administration will be produced during the years 2011 and 2012. Thus in approximately 2013 we will reach a new equilibrium with a lower GDP. It is not known how long it will take to normalize the housing market. According to various studies, the housing market will stabilize after 2015 with a production of about 200,000 houses per year. Most of the people remain in the expectation of returning to another real estate cycle expansion of easy money. Except for some minorities, people do not assume the need to produce goods and services without mortgaging in the future. Most people prefer immediate spending and political representatives act accordingly. 2.6 Capital increase phase After, if people want to increase the money flow, it should increase its capital (stock or reserves). That is, it should promote long-term economic activity and efficient spending of resources (for example landscape) and proper management of emissions.
3 Conclusion
We can distinguish six stages in the process of unsustainable development. At first the consumption of capital (stocks or resources) allowed strong economic

growth (high GDP growth). The population welcomes this process . When it runs out of capital consumption, there is a crisis and a failure of monetary flows. Most of the people expected to develop new situations of economic expansion. Only a minority perceive the continued degradation of resources which inevitably will mean less progress for the future. The new equilibrium state corresponds to a lower GDP. To increase again the GDP it is necessary to gradually increase the capital (stocks or reserves). The private ownership of land for urban development has facilitated the speculative land processes and, finally, the general environmental and economic regression.
References
[1] Miralles i Garcia, J.L. Sustainability regulations in urban planning: the experience of the Autonomous Community of Valencia (Spain). Proc of the 4th Int. Conf. on Sustainable Development and Planning, eds. C.A. Brebbia, M. Neophytou, E. Beriatos, I. Ioannou & A.G. Kungolos, WIT Press: Southampton, pp. 3-12, 2009. [2] Fernandez Ordez, Miguel. The restructuring of the Spanish banking sector and the Royal Decree-Law for the reinforcement of the financial system, http://www.bde.es/webbde/es/ [3] Miralles i Garcia, J.L., 2009, op.cit. [4] Naredo, J.M. La burbuja inmobiliario-financiera en la coyuntura econmica reciente (1985-1995). Siglo XXI de Espaa Editores, S.A. Madrid, 1996. [5] Pilehvar, A.A. & Kamali, N. The government and urban structure unsustainability in Iran. Proc of Sixth International Conference on Urban Regeneration and Sustainability, The Sustainable City VI, eds. C.A. Brebbia, S. Hernndez and E. Tiezzi. WIT Press: Southampton, pp 41-52, 2010. [6] Miralles i Garcia, J.L. The introduction of the sustainability in the procedures regulated for urban planning: the case of the last act on urbanism, territory and landscape in the Valencian Community (Spain). Proc of the 3rd Int. Conf. on Sustainable Development and Planning, eds. A. Kungolos, C.A. Brebbia & E. Beriatos, WIT Press: Southampton, pp. 505-513, 2007. [7] Gmez F., Montero L., De Vicente V., Sequ A. & Langa J. Expansion of metropolitan areas, land use and sustainability indicators: the case of Valencia (Spain). Proc of Sixth International Conference on Urban Regeneration and Sustainability, The Sustainable City VI, eds. C.A. Brebbia, S. Hernndez and E. Tiezzi. WIT Press: Southampton, pp 3-15, 2010. [8] Fernndez Ordoez, Miguel, op. cit.
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Urban sprawl: can it be sustainable? An analysis on energy performances of different urban forms
C. Diamantini & D. Vettorato
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Trento, Italy
Abstract
It is generally accepted that urban sprawl creates problems around energy use. It is true that the spread of single-family dwellings increases heat dispersion because of the bigger exterior surface of buildings. Moreover, families living far from city centres are reliant on their cars. Many urban planners are therefore calling for a stop to urban sprawl and a corresponding increase in urban compactness. In this paper we propose an alternative view. Alongside serious environmental issues in relation to energy, each urban form has the potential to fulfill the criteria of sustainability, particularly if such potential is exploited by means of planning practices. Our thesis is that the different forms assumed by settlements are not to be considered, in themselves, simply as strength or weakness factors but rather as variables. If these variables are adapted properly it is possible to have a significant impact on energy performance. The analysis uses three parameters: energy saving and conservation, energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. It is assumed that we are dealing with a post-carbon era, in which all urban forms have the opportunity to maximize these parameters. Keywords: urban sprawl, urban compactness, urban form, energy performances.
Introduction
Many scholars see urban sprawl as a distortion of the process of urbanization, which for centuries has been based on the model of the compact city. This negative view has been strengthened by the growing acceptance of the paradigm

of sustainability [1], which has focused attention on, among other factors, the need to tackle climate change by limiting green house gas emissions. It is pointed out that urban sprawl contributes to an increase in emissions, both from fixed sources, domestic heating in particular, and from mobile ones, the overuse of the private car. Most scholars have therefore concluded that urban sprawl must be halted, with a return to compact urban areas [2, 3]. We, however, have a different perspective on the question. In modern market economies today the phenomenon of urban sprawl appears to be so intimately linked to the urbanization process as to be unstoppable. This is a result of economic advantages like the low cost of land in areas considered desirable which are hard to control through planning without potentially threatening individual freedoms. It is therefore not so much a question of stopping the unstoppable as of guiding the process with planning decisions, which are themselves based on the concept of sustainability. Though this might seem paradoxical, it need not be so. Urban sprawl actually seems to be adapting itself to the recent trend towards the generation of renewable energy by numerous small and middle-sized installations; a feasible strategy for achieving a sustainable use of energy resources [4]. This small or medium sized energy production, at the level of the family home or the community, is more suitable for sparse settlements than for compact cities. Furthermore, changing urban microclimates, which lead to the creation of heat islands, are most common in compact cities, not in low-density areas or in zones where the urban and natural environments are well integrated [5]. Individual mobility, without question exacerbated by urban sprawl, is definitely a more critical factor. Even here, however, recent studies have shown that compact cities are also responsible for the generation of increased individual mobility: pushing their inhabitants to look outside them in search of pleasant environments and thus causing an increase in energy-expensive journeys [2]. Moreover, journeys to access services and commercial centers often spread over wide areas in turn stimulate traffic flows from compact cities which appear to be considerably greater than those undertaken for the same reasons within sparse settlements. These remarks, let it be said, are not aimed at a sort of replacement of compact cities with sparse settlements, by suggesting that the latter might, seen in perspective, reveal themselves to be more sustainable than the former. We are, instead, of the opinion that the opposition between compact and sparse needs to be overcome, as we are convinced that all urban forms (understood as distinct parts of a settlement system) have the potential to fulfill sustainability criteria in relation to energy, particularly if such potential is exploited by means of planning choices. Our thesis is that the different forms assumed by settlement systems are not to be considered, in themselves, simply as strength or weakness factors, but rather as variables. If these variables are adapted properly, it is possible to have a significant impact on energy performance. The paper thus aims to demonstrate the potential adaptability of different urban forms to the criteria of sustainable energy production and use, starting,
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according to some authors [6, 7], from the relationships which are established, both in compact cities and in low density areas, between urban morphologies understood as the structures making up urban form and energy performance, with reference to three parameters of sustainability: energy saving and conservation, energy efficiency and renewable energy sources [8]. The choice of these three parameters implies operation in a sort of post-carbon dimension, in which all urban forms have the wherewithal to maximize their energy performance. The energy performance of the different urban forms is investigated at the territorial scale with reference to an Alpine city and its surrounding area so uniting city and country in a single analytical context whose different urban forms are examined. The fact that the study is carried out at the territorial scale also gives us the opportunity to go further than the single building scale, which is the usual focus of energy studies. Section 2 introduces the area of study, breaking it up into urban compactness profiles, from which the urban forms examined in the research are also obtained. Section 3 presents our methods of analysis, with reference to both the indicators used and to the instruments with which they are described, focusing particularly on the most important indicators. Section 4 presents our results, in the form of a comparison between the energy performances of the different urban forms, referring to the three parameters mentioned above. The conclusions finally consider the significance of, and directions suggested by, the results of the study.
Urban compactness profiles and urban forms
The study area, fig. 1, extends from Trento (a city in an Alpine valley, pop. 100,000) to the Valsugana, a narrow valley that is undergoing urban sprawl. The settlement system under examination is characterized by the existence, a part from the city, of many small centers, of varying sizes, which have developed over time both through endogenous development and a process of suburbanization originating in the city. In order to test the energy performances of the different urban forms, which make up the settlement structure of the area, different urban compactness profiles were first identified within it. This was done, following the Hill-Climbing method [9], through a cluster analysis, which used two variables that were also used for this purpose in the EEA [1]: population density and building density. The population density, measured in inhabitants per km2, was taken from the 2001 Census and then mapped using pixels with a 100m resolution, while the building density, measured in m3/m2, was taken from a LiDAR survey and mapped using the same resolution. The cluster analysis gave us five urban compactness profiles which are related to an equal number of urban land uses in order to establish some spatial references, tab. 1.
Figure 1:
The study area.
Figure 2:
Urban compactness gradient map.
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The historical centers are the most compact forms (profile 1) particularly the biggest, in the city of Trento and, to a lesser extent (profile 2), in the historical centers of the small towns as well as in those parts of the territory affected by property development, particularly in the 1970s and 80s. Profile 3, areas of medium urban compactness, corresponds mainly to the areas where big commercial centers and service infrastructure were built. The most common level of compactness, the low-medium (profile 4), is found in the areas which have undergone a process of suburbanization, which originates both in Trento and in the medium-sized towns of the valley. In Profile 4 we find the majority of the single-family dwellings. Profile 5, finally, covers both the ongoing suburbanization and pre-existent rural dwellings. The five urban compactness profiles were then transferred into the Urban Compactness Gradient (UCG) map, fig. 2, from which the urban forms were obtained, through the spatial aggregation of adjacent areas. Therefore, the urban forms emerge from the delimiting of the boundaries of the built-up areas, producing an image of an archipelago in which each island is an urban form, each of which contains different gradients of compactness. It is worth pointing out that these different gradients occur in different contexts; within the city as well as in the smaller centers. This indicates that, at least in the area under discussion, the equations city equal to compactness and countryside equal to sprawling are not strictly accurate since within the city perimeter there are low-density areas, while the countryside evidences some built areas with a high level of compactness. Table 1: 1 2 3 4 5 Compactness profiles and corresponding land uses. Land uses Historical centres First urban development Services and commercial areas Sub-urban development Sparse settlements
Urban compactness profiles high urban compactness high-medium urban compactness medium urban compactness low-medium urban compactness low urban compactness
Energy performance indicators
In order to select the spatial indicators we considered the interactions between urban morphologies and sustainable energy performance, referring to the three above mentioned parameters energy saving and conversation, energy efficiency and renewable energy resources. There is considerable literature on the subject, but it is very fragmented, as authors have generally dealt with the specific aspects of the question [4, 5, 10]. We selected 18 indicators from the available literature and these were turned into spatial metrics according to the Pattern Oriented Modeling method in order to use patterns, spatial in this case, to synthesize the complex interactions between urban morphology and sustainable energy. The list of spatial metrics, as matrix of interactions between urban morphology and the parameters of sustainable energy, is shown in figure 3.

When the spatial metrics have been calculated they were normalized on a pixel grid of 100m2 in order to, on the one hand, compare them and, on the other, to construct a ranking system in relation to the energy performance of the individual pixels. Figures 4 and 5 show two of the spatial metrics, here referred to the city area only, which we used in the study: the Incident Solar Radiation and the Floor to Area Ratio. The study then looked at an additional variable, the UCG mentioned above, in order to establish the correlations between the variations in the spatial metrics and therefore of the sustainable energy performances and the different degrees of urban compactness. These correlations bearing in mind that each pixel stands for 18 metrics plus the UCG were subject to a multivariate statistical analysis.
Figure 3:
Spatial metrics.
Outcomes and results
The effectiveness of this study method is clearly shown by the outcomes obtained through the multivariate analysis. In figure 6, in fact, appear significant correlations through a grey-scale between the spatial metrics used as variables and the UCG.
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Figure 4:
Incident solar radiation.
Figure 5:
Floor to area ratio.
Figure 6:
Correlations between the spatial metrics used and the UCG.
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If we look at two profiles of urban compactness the most compact (profile 1) and the least (profile 5) which correspond to the most compact areas of the city and to the sparsest settlements, we see that the former seems to be closely correlated with one of the parameters used for the analysis energy saving and conservation and much less with the other two, while the second seems to be closely correlated with another of these parameters, renewable energy sources. Another important outcome, although it is determined by the characteristics of this particular area, arises from the important multi-scale relationship, which we find between the patterns of energy performance. The level of exposure of exterior building surfaces to beam solar radiation, for example, is firstly a product of the location of a settlement within the region, and secondly of the urban structure. Lastly, a ranking system, using thresholds and scores, allows us to see the sustainable energy performance of the urban forms, giving them the scores of the corresponding pixels. Table 2 shows a sample of thresholds and scores, taken from the literature on the subject [10, 11]. They can be improved turning to a participatory approach. Table 2: Sample of thresholds and scores. Medium (2 points) 25004000 wh/m2/day Zone 2 5 8 h/day 1000 m 2000 m 10 15 5 10 m3/ha/year Low (1 point) < 2500 wh/m2/day Zones 3 and 4 < 5 h/day < 500 m, > 2000 m > 15 < 5 m3/ha/year
High (3 points) 1. Beam sun 2. Climate zone 3. Hours of light 4. Main roads distance 5. Land slopes (degrees) 6. Biomass availability > 4000 wh/m2/day Zone 1 > 8 h/day 500 m 1000 m < 10 > 10 m3/ha/year
Three performance maps have thus been created, referring to the three parameters of energy sustainability used in the analysis. These maps, as shown in figures 7, 8 and 9, allow us to make comparisons between the sustainable energy performances of the different urban forms.
Figure 7:
Energy saving and conservation.
Figure 8:
Energy efficiency.
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Figure 9:
Renewable energy sources.
When we look at the energy saving and conservation criteria the form of a settlement does not seem to affect energy performance; there is no significant difference between the city and the small towns. Energy efficiency, however, seems to be highest in the city, while the small towns are at a disadvantage. From the point of view of renewable energy resources the small centers seem to perform best and it is the citys turn to be handicapped.
Conclusions
The initial assumption of this paper was that, considered from the perspective of sustainable development, the opposition between the compact city and the diffuse city is losing its validity. This is because very soon all type of settlement will have to adapt to criteria of sustainability like energy saving and conservation, energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. It is therefore a question, without setting them up in opposition to each other a priori, of verifying the ability of the different urban forms to adapt to these criteria and, if necessary, to take action, through planning practices, in order to create the conditions of such an adaptation. In order to demonstrate this we have used the criteria of sustainable use of energy resources referred to above to compare the energy performance of different urban forms. The following conclusions may be drawn from our analysis:

Our methodology proved to be effective in describing the sustainable energy performance of urban forms through both morphology and compactness gradient. The hypothesis that urban compactness is not the only approach to be used in planning practices to achieve high levels of sustainable use of energy resources is confirmed by the empirical observations presented in our study. We see, in particular, that although compact cities are more energy efficient, less densely built areas are more suitable for renewable energy generation. The analysis of energy performance from a morphological point of view allows us to identify critical of intervention in order to bring them into line with sustainability criteria. The lack of data and the ad hoc methods used for our spatial analysis has forced us to make some approximations. It was not possible to use a single unit of measurement for the spatial patterns of energy performance. This means that the results have been subject predominantly to visual comparisons. Likewise, it isnt possible to compare performance data from other studies conducted using different methodologies. Future developments should identify a unit of quantitative measurement of energy performance and the necessary conversion formulae to be used in the research works.
References
[1] European Environmental Agency, Urban sprawl in Europe. The ignored challenge, Report 10, EEA: Copenhagen, 2006. [2] Jenks, M., Burton, E. & Williams K., The Compact City: A Sustainable Urban Form? Oxford University Press: Oxford, 1996. [3] OMehara Sheenan, M., City Limits: Putting the Brakes on Sprawl, Worldwatch Paper 156, Worldwatch Institute: Washington DC, 2001. [4] International Energy Agency-Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, City, town and Renewable Energy. Yes In my Front Yard, IEA/OECD: Paris, 2009. [5] Gartland, L., Heat islands: understanding and mitigating heat in urban areas, Earthscan: London, 2008. [6] Owens, S.E., Energy, Planning and Urban Form, Pion: London, 1986. [7] Alberti, M., Advances in Urban Ecology. Integrating Humans and Ecological Processes in Urban Ecosystems, Springer: Washington, 2008. [8] European Commission, Intelligent Energy Europe. Mapping of previous integrated energy approaches, Part 2, EU INTEND project, task 2.1, EIE06-021-INTEND, EU: Bruxelles, 2005. [9] Rubin, J., Optimal Classification into Groups: An Approach for Solving the Taxonomy Problem, J. Theoretical Biology, 15, pp. 103-144, 1967. [10] U.S. Green Building Council, LEED Reference Guide for Neighborhood Development. 2009 Edition. USGBC: Washington D.C., 2009. [11] Hanova, J., Dowlatabadi, H., Strategic GHG reduction through the use of ground source heat pump technology, Environmental Research Letters, 2 (4), pp. 1-8, 2007.
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Sustainable aspects of traditional Ottoman neighbourhoods in modern Turkish urban settlements

G. Koca & R. Karasozen
Anadolu University, Department of Architecture, Eskisehir, Turkey
Abstract
Ottoman settlements have nature and human originated concepts, both physically and socially. The smallest unit of the Ottoman urban settlement is the quarter which has an organic texture. It can also be defined as an administrative and social unit. The houses of the rich and the poor were located next to each other and dwellings of a neighbourhood had always had the responsibility of helping and protecting each other with close neighbourhood relations. The existence of public participation in social organizations including humanistic values can be realised. The feeling of belonging had raised the environmental quality both physically and socially. The rapid and dense growth of cities and socio-cultural transformation of the society from traditional to modern have destroyed the neighbourhood order. As the dwellers of them have no common backgrounds and cultures, the relations get weakened. People who live in these modern settlements have not felt themselves belonging to the place and neighbourhood relations have weakened, and as the responsibility of protecting and watching each other has disappeared the crime rate at the common spaces of the settlements has increased. The neighbourhoods of the rich and the poor have been entirely separated. Some of them are designed using the traditional forms which cannot be defined as sustainability of traditional socio-cultural values which are independent from changing life styles. Sustainable aspects of traditional Ottoman neighborhoods in modern Turkish settlements with their physical and socio-cultural environmental features will be examined in this paper. Keywords: sustainability, neighbourhood, traditional Ottoman settlement, modern Turkish settlement.
1 Introduction
Sustainability is the capacity to endure, which includes policies and programs that integrate social, environmental, and economic elements. The sustainability of neighbourhoods, which is the subject of this paper is involved in social dimension which includes peace, security, social justice, human relationship to nature and human settlements (wikipedia.org [1]). Culture is gradually emerging out of the realm of social sustainability. UNESCO defined the cultural dimension of community development as being the whole complex of distinctive spiritual, material, intellectual and emotional features that characterize a society or social group. It includes not only the arts and letters, but also modes of life, the fundamental rights of the human being, value systems, traditions and beliefs. Cultural sustainability means change occurs in a way that respects cultural values. Sustainability must include an understanding of culture as well as of the place in which it occurs (www.creativecity.ca [2]). Traditional Ottoman settlement is a synthesis of nomadic and semi-nomadic, Islamic and Anatolian cultures with its sustainable cultural values. This synthesis affected their view of life, nature, place, beliefs, social relations and family and settlement organizations.
2 Features of traditional Ottoman neighbourhood

Ottoman cities had three main functions as housing, market and religious centres (Cerasi [3]). It is a character of traditional Turkish settlements that the dwelling and shopping areas are completely separate. Housing texture in Ottoman period was divided into small communities which are called as neighbourhood and were detached from market places (Kuban [4]). The houses in a neighbourhood were built around a religious complex. The characters of a neighbourhood have common features with the settlement of nomadic tribes. As each nomadic tribe created their separate neighbourhoods, they were interrelated tightly both socially and physically. Each neighbourhood inhabited around a central square, a spring or a religious centre separate from others (Kucukerman [5]). The nomadic worldview has great influences in forming the character of traditional Ottoman town. According to nomadic worldview, the temporariness of life and the material, respect to nature and human were the main principles, so they preferred the natural environment to the artificial one (Koca and Karasozen [6]). They built their houses with temporary materials such as wood and mud brick while using stone and brick for the monumental buildings. As the continuity of their nomadic traditions, they created a nature-oriented environment with green gardens. Any of the houses cut another ones sight and sunlight and shows respect to each other. Each building is unique itself as a part of the whole. As the physical structure of the land, climate, building methods and materials change, the main principals of the settlements does not change. The effect of Anatolia on traditional Ottoman neighbourhood was mainly at physical features with use of local materials and building techniques by local
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builders. On the other hand, the tissue of traditional Ottoman towns is affected from nomadic culture and devoid of rational order. The arrays of houses with spontaneously formed plans create narrow, irregular and picturesque road structures which lead to the centre and blind alleys as the extensions of main axes. There were no roads before the houses had been built and they were formed naturally and spontaneously. Although it hasnt got a rational worldview of an organized society, this tissue has been appeared by a functional and organic development (Kuban [4]) (Figure 1).
Figure 1:
Traditional Turkish neighbourhood.
Neighbourhood in the Ottoman system can be defined as an administrative and social unit (Cadirci [7]). The houses of the rich and the poor were located next to each other and were not distinguished from each other as location and building principles except for the dimensions and building details of the houses. Dwellings of a neighbourhood had always had the responsibility of helping and protecting each other with close neighbourhood relations (Koca and Karasozen [6]). Islamic culture also had effects on traditional neighbourhoods with its family organisation, understanding of privacy and position of women. They had patriarchal system and lived as large families. Privacy of women and family life shaped both the settlement and house planning with introverted life style by the effects of Islamic culture. Public and private spaces of the settlement were absolutely separated, thus the ground floor walls form a distinct barrier between the interior and exterior, in some cases having a fortress-like impregnability. It opened to the outside visually only by projecting bay windows of the upper floors covered with lattices. As the garden was used as an open space of the house for women, they also had high walls combining with the ground floor walls (Kucukerman [5]). The access to the house was indirectly from the garden and the threshold between public and private spaces was the garden gate until the Western effects in 19th Century (Koca and Karasozen [6]).
3 Formation of modern and squatter settlements

Westernisation movement of the Ottoman Empire had started in the 19th century and also affected the urban form. New building types, new architectural styles and new urban spaces had been added to the city life such as regular streets, passages and apartment buildings. Houses of traditional settlements became more extroverted with their ground floor windows and direct accesses to the houses. The foundation of the Republic of Turkey in 1923 gave acceleration to the modernisation process. The earliest urban plans of Turkish cities had been started to be made with regular boulevards and streets, squares, parks and modern buildings. Modernisation project of the Republic has not only affected its physical image but also its social structure. Secular system decreased the role of religion and the position of women has changed. Life styles became more extroverted, large families split and transformed into nuclear families. While modernism was being internalized by people who live in cities, traditional culture has been kept on at rural areas of the country (Koca and Karasozen [6]). Beginning from the 1950s, migration from rural areas to cities started and caused deterioration on both physical and social environments, especially in big cities. The need for housing, which appeared as a consequence of dense immigration, led to an uncontrolled and unforeseen physical growth through the squatters of cities. This illegal growth has reflections from traditional texture of rural areas with their spontaneously developed irregular texture. As a negative result of their having legality and having permission for multi-storey buildings later on, some of these settlements which have a close location to the city centre have been transformed into low-quality apartment houses without physical and socio-cultural infrastructure (Koca and Karasozen [6]) (Figure 2).
Figure 2:
Squatter neighbourhood.
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Residents of the squatter houses usually prefer having a house among the people from their home towns or villages and built their houses collectively, so that they have strong neighbourhood relations. They live as large families and continued the patriarchal family system and introverted life style. The second and third generations are under the control of the first generation members who have succeeded in becoming house owners. The houses have flexibility. It is seen that the house can be extended horizontally by adding rooms to the garden or additional stories can be added as the youngsters get married and families get larger later on. For that reason, these houses usually have no roof or no external plaster, and always look incomplete (Senyapili [8]). Since the residents can only afford the very basic needs of houses, they dont pay any attention to the standards of outdoors. It can be said that the early examples of the squatter settlements had traditional effects. Even though they are single or two-storey houses and have gardens, they are denser than the traditional (Senyapili [8]). People who migrated from rural areas and continued traditional culture have not only brought their spatial understanding but also traditional life style with them, creating new cultural problems in addition to inadequate physical conditions. It was a culture of transition from being traditional to modern and from being peasant to citizen. Their overpopulation is the main factor that slows down the process to become urbanized and creates a new culture in between. They both cannot internalize the urban culture and continue the traditional values completely. In planned areas, modern settlements started to appear completely different from traditional texture. People adopted quickly and preferred modern houses to the traditional ones for their facilities and better building and comfort standards. Modern settlements appeared in different ways. One of them was by demolishing the traditional buildings and building the modern multi-storey ones instead of them before the conservation act at the 1980s. The other one is the production of mass housing by the government or private sector on the planned areas. Both implementations have supplied an important number of housing stocks while deteriorating the traditional tissue and social life (Koca and Karasozen [6]) (Figure 3). The unity of the traditional settlements and each building being unique in itself produced a common language and variety, now replaced with ordinary and monotonous settlements. As these new settlements are not nature and human oriented, environments have less green areas and less respect to each others view and sunlight as the planning decisions of these settlements are not given by the users but by the contractors and planners. The traditional neighbourhood organization has also deteriorated at the new settlements. As the dwellers of these new neighbourhoods have no common backgrounds and cultures, the relations between them get weakened. As people who live in these modern settlements have not felt themselves belong to the place, it has turned to a neighbourhood that people do not know each other on the contrary to the traditional neighbourhoods. As the responsibility of protecting and watching each other has disappeared, the crime rate at the common spaces of the settlements has increased. The neighbourhoods of the rich and the poor have been separated absolutely. The socio-economic and cultural difference of people
Figure 3:
Modern neighbourhood.
from various sub-cultures has been so deep that it is impossible to be integrated in modern settlements different from the unity of traditional neighbourhoods. The homogenous structure of traditional culture replaced with the heterogeneous structure of modern culture (Koca and Karasozen [6]).
4 Conclusion
Cultural change is inevitable for development of societies and it is impossible to rebuild the traditional in modernity as the modernity rejects the traditional. On the other hand, it is a problem that the positive traditional values not being transferred to the latter generations. Adopting positive aspects of traditional settlements to the present and future society is an important dimension of cultural sustainability. As the family structure and understanding of privacy have changed in modern Turkish society, positive socio-cultural sustainable aspects of traditional Ottoman neighbourhoods in modern Turkish urban settlements can be determined as follows: Respect to nature and humans, ( houses do not cut off another ones sight and sunlight and shows respect to each other, buildings fit human scale) Nature-oriented environment (tissue fits topography, green gardens) Use of local materials Good neighbourhood relations Sense of belonging Self-control for security Each building being unique itself as a part of the whole (not being monotonous as modern settlements)
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Squatter neighbourhoods have the potential of sustainability of traditional values with these positive features above as a traditional society trying to adapt to modern urban life. Self-help building process and flexibility of houses are the additional social values as sustainability. The problem is their having negative physical conditions and being out of legal process or lack of laws suitable to sustainability. Modern neighbourhoods are devoid of achieving the positive sustainable social values of the traditional settlements existing in squatter settlements although their high standards of designed environments. Integrating the positive aspects of the traditional and the modern neighbourhoods will be the most appropriate solution for sustainability.
References
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainability#Human_settlements, 2011. [2] http://www.creativecity.ca/se-newsletters/special-edition-4/key-contexts2.html, 2011. [3] Cerasi, M., Osmanli Kenti, YKY, Istanbul, 1999. [4] Kuban, D., Turk ve Islam Sanati Uzerine Denemeler, Arkeoloji ve Sanat Yay., Istanbul, 1982. [5] Kucukerman, O., Turkish House in Search of Spatial Identity, Turkish Touring and Automobile Ass., 3rd Ed., Istanbul, 1988. [6] Koca G., Karasozen R., The Change in Traditional Identity of Turkish Urban Settlements, The Multiple Faces of Identity in the Designed Environment ADGD Conference, Nottingham, 2009. [7] Cadirci, M., The Neighbourhood in Anatolian Towns, Housing and Settlement in Anatolia a Historical Perspective, Habitat II, pp. 257-262, History Foundation Publications, Istanbul, 1996. [8] Senyapili, T., New Problems / Old Solutions A Look at the Gecekondu in the Urban Space, Housing and Settlement in Anatolia a Historical Perspective, Habitat II, pp. 345-354, History Foundation Publications, Istanbul, 1996.
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From scoring to orienting: the development of a compass for evaluating sustainable urban development at the neighbourhood scale
H. Vandevyvere
Department of Architecture, Urbanism and Planning, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium
Abstract
Recent tools for the evaluation of sustainable neighbourhood performance have been conceived as measuring instruments that deliver an unequivocal outcome in the form of a score. The benefits of these tools in terms of benchmarking, communication power and marketing are obvious. However, the complex tradeoffs that characterize urban development projects complicate a straightforward translation of sustainability aspect to score, not at least because quantitative and qualitative criteria must be combined into a final judgement. The quantitative data uncertainties characteristic of many urban surveying processes further add to the problem. Quantifying the unquantifiable may therefore be considered as the Achilles heel of these evaluation tools. A more processoriented guidance can then offer an alternative. The present contribution describes an approach that combines scoring with arguing as a way out of the difficulties of mere quantification. Attention is deviated from the single score to the wider panorama of contributing factors. Three elements provide the basis for the development of the method. Referring to research in political sciences, indicators are primarily conceived as boundary institutions that facilitate information exchange between scientists, decision makers and stakeholders. A new form of radar diagram is developed for a better visualisation of complex valuations, minimizing perception bias while maximizing useful information content. Performance thresholds and qualitative accounting are finally added as indispensible components of the judgement palette. The resulting tool thus functions as a compass rather than a gauge. Keywords: sustainable urban development, indicator system, neighbourhood, assessment, multimodal system analysis, radar diagram.
1 Introduction
Evaluating the sustainable performance of urban fragments has gained much attention in recent years. The advent of market-based instruments like LEED for Neighborhood Development [1] and BREEAM Communities [2] in 2009 is illustrative of this trend. It coincides with the emerging consciousness that aggregated sustainability benefits appear at the urban scale level compared to optimizing single buildings for sustainability, or inversely, that ignoring sustainability factors at the urban scale results in deficient overall system performance. Evaluation does not come without methodological difficulties, however. At the level of the neighbourhood or the city, the complexity of framing and assessing sustainable performance is considerable. Two major contributing factors to this complexity are the intricate mix of environmental, social and economic border conditions for sustainability on the one hand, and the difficulties of quantitative modelling and corresponding data collection on the other hand. The first factor can further be interpreted in terms of a tension between quantitative and qualitative evaluation, or between the determinative conditions for environmental sustainability and the normative conditions that define the sustainability of society as a whole [3, 4]. Starting from the observation that a mixed quantitative-qualitative evaluation will thus meet difficulties in uncontested scoring, an alternative scheme for sustainability evaluation has been developed. Elements of such strategy can also be found with other acquainted assessment tools (e.g. [5]), but it is not the approach of commercial labels and official rating instruments (e.g. [6]), as these aim at an undisputable outcome for reasons of benchmarking and regulation. The alternative approach delivers a compass rather than a gauge, and has particularly been thought of as an instrument for reflexive governance [7].
2 Preconditions for the assessment instrument

Starting from both a literature review and field inquiries, a set of preconditions for the assessment instrument has been determined. These are, summarizing [4]: To provide a comprehensive and transparent way of assessing sustainability so that professional actors can go through the evaluation process with a larger group of participating stakeholders [8, 9]; To consider sustainability components through indicators that are effective at the micro-urban scale level. Efficiency can be gained by integrating input from other evaluations carried out at the same time, e.g.: EIAs (environmental impact assessments), EPR calculations (energy performance regulation), building simulations, compulsory water management checks, life cycle assessments (LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC); To cover, by extension, all modal spheres of sustainable functioning; To focus on results rather than on the means to achieve these results; To provide a strategy to deal with uncertainties;
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To be flexible enough to allow adaptation to the unique context of a particular project; While not remaining so undefined or elastic that individual actors can divert the evaluation process towards their sectorial concerns, thus harming the common interest or the overall sustainability targets (e.g. 10]). The completeness in terms of modal spheres refers to a methodological concept based on the philosophical work of Herman Dooyeweerd [3, 4, 1113]. By evaluating qualitative results, rather than the means to achieve these results, the method adopts a different approach compared to pure rating systems. For example, spatial quality will be assessed in se and will not be valued procedurally, e.g. by controlling if a spatial quality surveyor has been assigned during the development process. The above preconditions have led to three strategic options for working out the instrument: The selected indicators shall function as boundary institutions that facilitate the exchange of knowledge between the spheres of science, policy and society [14]; Rating will be complemented by other assessment techniques, in particular the introduction of performance thresholds and the composition of (qualitative) arguments; A new type of radar diagram will be developed, in particular to respond to problems of perceptive bias that occur with some commonly used radars. Performance thresholds must guarantee that essential conditions for sustainable functioning are fulfilled, regardless of the obtained overall score.
3 Indicator system and composite tool

The present section explains the components of the evaluation. 3.1 Indicators A set of indicators makes up the basis of the system. As mentioned higher, these indicators are thought of as boundary elements that facilitate knowledge transfer between concerned parties. Main indicators can be composed of up to 4 subindicators. Two major inputs guide the selection of these indicators: a survey of existing indicator systems on the one hand, and multimodal control for completeness of the set on the other hand. Complementary input was obtained from an expert panel (see also further). The resulting system of main indicators with its inputs is represented in figure 1. The indicators are grouped in four categories that correspond to the classical 3P division (planet, people, prosperity), completed with a category that controls process quality and integrity. This may be compared with ISO 14031s distinction between operational performance indicators (3P categories) and management performance indicators (steering category) [15].
Figure 1:
Inference diagram for the main indicator system.
With the aim of constructing a working basis, several types of existing indicator system have first been screened for valuable input. The analysed systems can be distinguished as belonging to 4 major spheres: academic and research-oriented; market-based; mixed; and ad hoc or project-based. Mixed instruments refer to tools that result from a collaboration between research institutes, consultancies and/or (local) authorities. In total, 19 indicator systems have been analysed this way [4], among which LEED for Neighborhood Development, BREEAM Communities, the Hammarby Sjstad Model [16] and BedZEDs 21 Steps Chart [17], to name a few of the better-known examples. The resulting pragmatic set of possible indicators has subsequently been reworked and controlled for completeness. At the top of figure 1, the modal aspects to be accounted of are represented as knowledge spheres. Two types of knowledge input, direct and indirect, may be distinguished. For example,
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mathematics, while belonging to the numerical realm, has a supportive role in delivering tools for analysing other spheres, e.g. the social realm by means of statistics or the economic realm through monetizing techniques. Such indirect aspects are labelled as feeders in figure 1. An in-depth discussion of multimodal analysis and its application in sustainability evaluation is beyond the scope of the present article, but can be found in [4]. An observation should be made about the independency of the indicators. It appears that a workable set is always composed of indicators that influence each other, and so are not strictly independent. For example, the sustainability of the transport system analysed under mobility influences spatial quality and physical quality of life (absence of harmful emissions and nuisance), and thus indirectly many other environmental and social aspects. A similar reflection can be made about economic behaviour viewed as a social construct, or about any other links between modal aspects. This phenomenon is recognized in multimodal system analysis, and explained in terms of the inevitable anticipations and retrocipations that exist between the modal spheres. In fact, the only independent variable for our analysis appears to be the integrated sustainability itself. However, when assigning effects to particular indicators, it remains important to avoid double-counting. For example, energy use for transport will here be considered under the indicator energy, and so not again under the indicator mobility. Sub-indicators make up the technical layer for the assessment. As an example, the sub-indicators for energy consumption during the use phase and for spatial quality are explained here. Energy use is assessed by considering: Fossil energy consumption in buildings and infrastructures during their exploitation, expressed as surface-averaged kWhprimary, fossil/m, year or as kWhprimary, fossil/person, year; Environmental quality of the building and infrastructure energy use expressed as proportionally averaged Ecopoints/kWh; Fossil energy consumption for transport of inhabitants and users, expressed as kWhprimary, fossil/person, year. Energy embedded in building and infrastructure materials is included in the materials indicator through an LCA-score. The energy assessment is thus not a pure LCA-analysis, but reflects a series of actual priorities as follows: (1) to reduce the fossil energy consumption of buildings and urban infrastructures; (2) subsequently, to fill in the remaining energy demand as environmentally friendly as possible; and (3) to add the location impact of settlements on transport energy in order to complete the energy consumption figure of the urban fragment. This approach is similar to the principles of the trias energetica. Moreover, the subdivision allows to handle certain problems of data collection and modelling: at the neighbourhood scale it is very difficult to assess mobility effects, whereas estimating intrabuilding energy figures is more feasible. The sub-indicators allow thus to give relief to the information in terms of uncertainty degrees. Of course, this relief is

lost at the aggregation level of the main indicators, but the processed information remains available for in-depth analysis. In contrast with the quantitative assessment of energy use, spatial quality is judged in exclusively qualitative terms. The valuation is structured by a nonexhaustive series of aspects to be judged, as follows: gradations of public and private character, transitions between these spheres, buffer areas, and corresponding changes of scale; articulation of the different programmatic elements with respect to each other; in particular the relation between buildings and infrastructures and the possible barrier effects of the latter; meaningful integration of green structures and green-blue networks into the urban landscape; visual landscape quality and scenic beauty; legibility and permeability of the urban tissue; integration of different architectural concepts in a given setting or masterplan; and the articulation and integration of existing patrimony herein; authenticity and architectural quality of individual buildings. The final score is normative, but could be numerically composed by assigning symbolic ratings to each of the individual aspects, and subsequently weighting them. In the present state of the instrument, such partial scoring and weighting has not been provided for spatial quality. Whether or not this is done depends on how far users want to instrumentalize the evaluation. This problem is very similar to the challenges of judgement formulation in, for example, architectural competitions. Mixed sets of sub-indicators are used as well. This means they include quantitative (determinative) and qualitative (normative) aspects. Symbolic rating and weighting allow aggregation into the corresponding main indicator score. 3.2 Scores and weighting factors All indicators and sub-indicators are scored on a scale from 0 to 10, independent of their quantitative / qualitative character. To arrive at an overall score, sub-indicators and indicators are aggregated by means of a weighted sum. For aggregating the main indicators, a set of weighting factors has been established by an expert panel. The consulted panel included 20 professionals from academia, government functions and the private sector (designers, consultants, project developers,). The experts were selected for their authority and familiarity with problems of sustainable urban development in Flanders, the context of the research. The reference situation to be weighted was an urban development with a dominantly residential program. Apart from assigning weighting factors, the experts were also asked for intrinsic feedback about the indicator system (cf. supra). Table 1 resumes the averaged weightings obtained from 17 respondents.
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Table 1:
Rounded indicator weights and corresponding standard deviations (s.d.).

% 37,5 5,0 8,5 5,5 7,0 7,0 4,5 18,5 5,0 4,5 4,5 4,5 s.d. Category / Indicator Socio-cultural aspects Safety Servicing effectiveness Integration Sociability Future social value Spatial quality Identity Process aspects Process quality Participation Integrity % 25,5 3,0 4,0 3,5 3,5 3,5 4,5 3,5 18,5 6,5 6,5 5,5 s.d.
Category / Indicator Environmental aspects Materials+ Energy+ Water+ Land use Mobility Emissions and nuisance Economic aspects Life cycle cost Economic embedding Legal certainty Future economic value
1,95 5,47 1,75 3,86 2,48 1,55
1,14 1,88 1,66 1,46 1,89 1,53 1,32
2,17 1,65 2,25 1,96
2,61 2,98 2,73
The standard deviations are fairly proportional to the weight values. As a critique, the averaged opinion of a group of experts could be judged as being grey or levelled off. On the other hand, the procedure assures a higher degree of robustness while some tendencies still remain clear, in particular the dominance of the environmental category. Particular contexts can justify a different weighting set, as far as arguments are brought in for doing so. For example, an urban development around a railway station may require increased attention for mobility, nuisance prevention and servicing effectiveness, at the cost of other factors. The assessor in charge of the evaluation (see also further) controls this contextual adaptation in consultation with the different stakeholders. The above weight factors then serve as a benchmark. Weighting factors for sub-indicators have not yet been assigned on the basis of an expert consultation, but are derived from arguable working hypotheses. 3.3 Exclusion thresholds In order to avoid compensation effects whereby a satisfactory overall score is obtained while severely underperforming on one or more indicators, a set of minimum requirements for sustainable functioning has been defined. A development can thus not be considered sustainable if one of the following requirements is not met: an appropriate location (expert judgement); space heating and cooling demand in new buildings under 50 kWhprimary/m, year (European moderate climate); an acceptable service level of public transport (calculated sub-indicator score of minimum 5/10); sustainability investments with a simple pay-back time of 5 years are automatically carried out (compared to common practice on basis of legal minimum standards).

3.4 Radar diagram A new type of radar diagram representing the indicator scores has been developed, with the aim of reducing perception biases that are characteristic of common radar types. The biases originate from two effects: a strong angular and surface distortion near the centre of the circular representation; a different shape of score-connecting lines and figures, depending on the sequence in which the scores are represented. The solution for this problem consists of keeping all graphical elements away from the circle centre. For maximum legibility of the aggregated score, the radar diagram is set up as follows (see figure 2): the surface of a score block is proportional to the indicators weight factor in the overall score; the colour of a score block represents the actual indicator score (going from red for 0, over orange for 4.1-5, to dark green for 9.1-10); the actual score is annotated in the score block; the 4 indicator categories are marked by a graphical segmentation.
Figure 2:
Radar diagram. Colour tones from red over orange to green have been replaced by shades of grey (black = 0; light grey = 10).
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3.5 Argumentation As stated higher, the present evaluation is intended to serve as a compass that facilitates an approach of reflexive governance, rather than as a gauge for awarding labels. This implies that actors and stakeholders acquire a deeper insight into the sustainable performance of an urban project and do not solely focus on end scores. Eventual barriers and shortcomings that hinder sustainable development need to be surfaced and understood, in order to enable targeted remediation. Providing a consolidated integrity check is of particular importance. Actors and stakeholders have to verify if the sustainability claims they forward stand the proof of integer, holistic sustainable development. If this is not the case, the sectorial agendas of concerned parties may need adjustment. Because of its debatable nature, the entire evaluation process will preferably be managed by an independent assessor. This quality control partner assures that quantifiable inputs are correctly handled, qualitative judgements properly balanced, and the aspirations of the different actors and stakeholders considered by referring to a solid definition of sustainable development. Intrinsic quality discussions hereby present the obvious risk of conflicting valuations, but also the opportunity of reaching the core issues of sustainable development. Such strategy coincides with the goal of a result-oriented instrument, rather than a means-oriented one. It avoids the pitfalls of trying to quantify the unquantifiable.
4 Feedback from the application in three case studies

In its present state, the instrument has been tested in three case studies as part of a doctoral research project. The selected case studies are an urban brownfield redevelopment (Antwerp docklands), a peri-urban infill project (Mechelen) and a greenfield development at the city fringe (Sint-Niklaas), all in the northern part of Belgium. Some preliminary conclusions about the methodology can be drawn from these applications. First, even if data uncertainties prevent to construct a clear image of sustainable functioning, it is still possible to obtain a useful quick scan of a development project. In this case the evaluation delivers a concise SWOTanalysis. In particular, a lack of data may in itself reflect a weakness of the sustainability targets, and so provide indications for improvement. The same holds for detecting misleading sustainability claims. Second, using the tool has indicated that a lot more research about sustainable urban functioning is needed, particularly in terms of life cycle assessments at the urban scale level. In a similar way, clients need to be methodologically supported from the early programming stages so as to assure the deep sustainability of the development, since a common pitfall is to try to green up a traditional project.

Third, a tension between local context factors and general sustainability goals may be expected to occur in any practical case. There are however no standard rules to resolve this conflict. And finally, qualitative judgements can be made more robust if the instrument is used to compare projects or development scenarios with each other. Similar reasoning can then be applied in a systematic and comparative way to effectively differentiate between developments and their possible variants. In the case study for Mechelen, a different development scenario was proposed and subsequently analysed as part of the PhD research. This proved that an alternative approach could drastically improve sustainable performance, even while having recourse to market-conform solutions.
5 Conclusions
The compass for evaluating sustainable urban development at the neighbourhood scale presented in this paper has set out to adopt an alternative approach to sustainable performance evaluation, as compared to instruments that adhere to a strictly quantitative setup. So an important challenge was to accommodate for qualitative judgements in a structured, but non-mechanistic way. We need now to question if the initial border conditions for the tool have been met. A first aspect to be reconsidered concerns manipulation: can a tool be qualitative and context-sensitive without becoming an idle measure? We venture to conclude that such can be the case under certain conditions: there must be a solid frame of reference with sufficient built-in controls, and the instrument must be used by an instructed and independent assessor, however working in close collaboration with concerned actors and stakeholders for the sake of optimum transparency. This coincides with an approach of reflexive learning. The introduction of a steering category for evaluation and integration of the underlying 3P aspects is an essential component of this strategy. Even if qualitative judging may, from a theoretical point of view, be considered as intangible by definition, it should be noted that it does occur as a common practice. Architectural or urban planning competitions provide us with an excellent instance. The qualitative choices made by competition juries are accepted even if the economic consequences for the participants are far-reaching. The accessibility of the evaluation results to actors and stakeholders is increased by using a concise set of main indicators divided into four categories that are easy to grasp. Practical application has indicated that data uncertainties allow, if not to compose a reasonable score, at least to perform a SWOT-analysis or quick scan. This analysis can be particularly instructive within the development process, because it indicates gaps in the frame of reference that has been put into place for a given project. Further adaptations to the evaluation instrument can consolidate the response to its initial claims. If desirable, minimum thresholds can be turned into quantitative-only criteria by developing a set of measurable location conditions,
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so that a minimum label can be accorded in an undisputable way. An expert panel can further evaluate and weigh the sub-indicators, while new and more LCA-data could allow to support more informed calibrations of the indicators and sub-indicators. Some qualitative indicators could be more structurally assessed by an explicit enumeration and weighting of the different aspects to be judged. Further use of the instrument in practice is currently pending, but would allow to effectively engage with its refinement.
References
[1] Congress for the New Urbanism, Natural Resources Defense Council, U.S. Green Building Council, LEED 2009 for Neighborhood Development Rating System, USGBC, www.usgbc.org/DisplayPage.aspx?CMSPageID =148 [2] BRE, BREEAM Communities SD5065B Technical Guidance Manual, BRE Global Ltd, www.breeam.org/filelibrary/breeamcommunities/SD5065B__BREEAM_Communities_Technical_Guidance_Manual.pdf [3] Brandon, P. & Lombardi, P., Evaluating Sustainable Development in the Built Environment, Wiley-Blackwell: Oxford and Ames, 2011. [4] Vandevyvere, H., Strategien voor een verhoogde implementatie van duurzaam bouwen in Vlaanderen. Toepassing op het schaalniveau van het stadsfragment / Strategies Towards Increased Sustainable Building in Flanders. Application on the Scale of the Urban Fragment, PhD dissertation, K.U.Leuven: Leuven, 2010. [5] Blum, A., HQER Research and demonstration for assessing sustainable neighbourhood development (Chapter 20). Sustainable Urban Development Volume 2: The Environmental Assessment Methods, eds. M. Deakin, G. Mitchell, P. Nijkamp & R. Vreeker, Routledge: London and New York, pp. 412-428, 2007. [6] IVAM (2005), DuurzaamheidsProfiel van een Locatie (DPL), www.ivam.uva.nl [7] Voss, J-P., Bauknecht, D. & Kemp, R. (eds). Reflexive Governance for Sustainable Development, Edward Elgar: Cheltenham, 2006. [8] Rotmans, J., Methods for integrated assessment: the challenges and opportunities ahead. Environmental Model Assessment, 3(2), pp. 155-179, 1998. [9] Lombardi, P. & Brandon, P., The Multimodal System Approach to Sustainability Planning Evaluation (Chapter 3). Sustainable Urban Development Volume 2: The Environmental Assessment Methods, eds. M. Deakin, G. Mitchell, P. Nijkamp & R. Vreeker, Routledge: London and New York, pp. 47-64, 2007. [10] Nijkamp, P., The role of evaluation in supporting a human sustainable development: a cosmonomic perspective (Chapter 5). Sustainable Urban Development Volume 2: The Environmental Assessment Methods, eds. M.

Deakin, G. Mitchell, P. Nijkamp & R. Vreeker, Routledge: London and New York, pp. 94-109, 2007. Lombardi, P. & Brandon, P., Toward a multi-modal framework for evaluating the built environment quality in sustainability planning (s.n.). Evaluation of the Built Environment for Sustainability, eds. P. Brandon, P. Lombardi & V. Bentivegna, E&FN Spon: London, pp. 7-24, 1997. Basden, A., The critical theory of Herman Dooyeweerd? Journal of Information Technology, 17(4), pp. 257-269, 2002. Lombardi, P. & Basden, A., Environmental Sustainability and Information Systems: The Similarity. Systems Practice, 10(4), pp. 473-489, 1997. Bauler, T., Indicators for Sustainable Development: A Discussion of their Usability, PhD dissertation, Universit Libre de Bruxelles: Brussels, 2007. ISO, International Standard ISO 14031: Environmental management Environmental performance evaluation Guidelines, ISO: Geneva, 1999. Stad Stockholms/GlashusEtt, Hammarby Sjstad a unique environmental project in Stockholm, GlashusEtt: Stockholm, 2007. Simmons, C., Ecological Footprint Analysis: a useful method for exploring the interaction between lifestyles and the built environment (Chapter 11). Sustainable Urban Development Volume 2: The Environmental Assessment Methods, eds. M. Deakin, G. Mitchell, P. Nijkamp & R. Vreeker, Routledge: London and New York, pp. 223-235, 2007.
[11]
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Whole-building design for a green school building in Al-Ain, United Arab Emirates
S. K. Elmasry & M. A. Haggag
UAE University, United Arab Emirates
Abstract
Energy efficiency in school buildings has been an international concern for the last few decades. Green-schools initiatives and benchmarks have been developing worldwide, for example Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) for school buildings by the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC), Energy Smart School Program by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Also, the UK has been producing energy benchmarks and performance guides for almost 30 years, such as Good Practice Guide 343, which includes typical and best practice values for primary school. In 2009, the Estidama Pearl Rating System for school buildings emerged as a local effort in the United Arab Emirates following the Estidama sustainability initiative under the umbrella of the AbuDhabi plan 2030. As part of the Pearl Building Rating System, sustainable performance of schools buildings is assessed against seven main criteria, namely Integrated Development Process (IDP), Natural Systems (NS), Precious Water (PW), Resourceful Energy (RE), Stewarding Materials (SM), Innovating Practice (IP), and finally Livable Buildings (LB). Based on this initiative and the hot arid climatic condition of Al-Ain city, a research team at the United Arab Emirates University has initiated a study of whole-building design of an International School as part of a long-term research agenda for sustainable applications in school buildings in the area. The building is currently performing with photovoltaic panels installations, grey water recycling strategies as well as green wall applications. This paper previews the sustainability approaches and systems established in the building, and examines the integrated performance of the building against the Estidama rating criteria recommended for the area. The paper concludes a set of recommendations for

sustainable design criteria for school buildings following the Estidama initiative tailored for school buildings using the whole-building design approach. Keywords: Estidama, hot arid climate, school building, UAE, whole-building design.
1 Introduction
Schools are generally buildings of high energy consumption due to their highoccupancy levels and their unique occupancy patterns. According to estimates of the US Department of Energy, 25% of the expenses on energy in schools could be saved through better building design and using energy-efficient technologies combined with improvements in operations and maintenance [1]. Classrooms, as the most common functional space, result in very large values of the internal heat sources (approximately 5 kW). As a result, existing design guidelines for low energy consumption in residential [1] or office buildings [2] may not hold for classrooms design, where usage pattern is different and internal heat gains are much larger [1, 3]. In the city of Al-Ain, United Arab Emirates, a local sustainable school initiative was taken by the administration of Liwa International School (LIS). The school is sited in the south west end of Al-Ain city, the inner desert oasis of the UAE. The school building was constructed in 1992 and converted from conventional to sustainable green building in 2010. As a member of the global network of UNESCO affiliated schools, LIS has participated in the World Future Energy Summit 2010 with a sustainable green building project. This project aimed to increase energy efficiency in buildings by introducing green building technologies. As part of an experimental work which was carried out by the authors in 2010 [4], this pilot project was selected as a case study to investigate the performance of the installed systems as part of developing the future agenda of energy-efficient school buildings in the U.A.E. The school occupies 2 separate buildings located in the south west end of Al Ain city; the northern building or the main building (A) hosting the elementary and secondary classrooms as well as the administration, and the southern building (B) hosting the kindergarten section. The campus is specifically located at latitude 24 16 and longitude 55 36 E., as illustrated in Figure 1. The 2010 project of transforming the building into an energy-efficient educational facility has resulted in introducing 3 systems to the buildings, namely (a) the green wall system; aiming at reducing the heat gain through the building facades. The system has been installed in phases on all building facades consequently. (b) Photovoltaics; installed on the roofs on both buildings, aiming at providing the capacity needed for night lighting and irrigation of the green walls, and (c) grey water recycling system, aiming at producing the capacity of water needed for irrigation. It is essential however to discuss the need for and the efforts towards energy efficiency in general and in school buildings in specific as the umbrella under which this project falls.
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Figure 1:
Satellite image for the LIS campus showing the main building (A) and the Kindergarten building (B). Front image of the main building.
2 Energy efficiency and assessment tools for school buildings

Starting the 1990s, energy efficiency in buildings emerged as a global concern given that buildings contribute to 20 40% of global energy consumption in developed countries [5]. A number of building assessment tools, benchmarking, and rating systems have been introduced to the building industry offering new values in terms of building performance in general and its environmental responsiveness in specific. When it comes to the special nature of school buildings, developers were conscious enough to tailor these tools to the needs of building type with its unique occupancy patterns, and energy demands. The following sections illustrate international and local efforts in the area. 2.1 International building assessment tools Building assessment tools address building performance from diverse approaches. LEED for example, provides third-party verification that a building or a development was designed and built using strategies which provide performance across a number of the metrics; energy savings, water efficiency, CO2 emissions reduction, improved indoor environmental quality, and stewardship of resources and sensitivity to their impacts [6]. Building performance in LEED is measured and evaluated a point-scale system. BREEAM is another tool which measures sustainability of buildings in the UK. It assesses the building components along its lifecycle to ensure that the accreditation is still valid [7, 8]. SBTool [9], formerly known as GBTool [10, 11] is intended to be used for the assessment of potential energy and environmental performance of buildings. It can handle types of buildings: Multi-unit residential; Office and School. In GBTool, scores are assigned in a range of -2 to +5, where: - 2 and -1 are levels of performance below the acceptable level in your region, for occupancies specified; 0 is the minimum level of acceptable performance in

your region for occupancies specified; 3 is Best Practice; and 5 is the best technically achievable, without consideration of cost. When it comes to energy performance and assessment of school buildings, it is often devoted in the literature to savings via specific features such as utilization of solar energy, construction features, such as thermal insulation, thermal mass, and shading, HVAC performance, and geothermal pumps [2, 3, 12]. However, basic assumptions regarding thermal comfort, indoor air quality, occupancy and acclimatization schedules, internal loads, and architectural features of the school building are not identical in the various publications, and are usually based on local preferences [3]. International efforts have thus been aiming to develop tailored strategies to meet the specific demands for school buildings, and to meet local or regional demands. Green schools benchmarks have been developing worldwide, for example Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) for school buildings by the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC) [12], Energy Smart School Program by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) [2], The Benchmarking Guide for School Facility Managers as part of the pilot benchmarking and best practices program undertaken by Natural Resources Canada's (NRCans) Office of Energy Efficiency (OEE) [13]. Also, the UK has been producing energy benchmarks and performance guides for almost 30 years, as Good Practice Guide 343, which includes typical and best practice values for primary schools [14]. These tools proved success in terms of meeting the patterns of energy consumption and savings in school buildings. 2.2 Estidama, a local Emirati assessment tool The implementation of any of the previously mentioned assessment tools in the context of UAE is in fact inappropriate, since they do not particularly address the local environmental, economical, cultural and social contexts, which are the derivers the broader goal of sustainability. In May 2008, the Estidama Pearls Rating System was initiated in Abu-Dhabi, U.A.E. and added to the international list [15]. The system targets the mid-east region and addresses the impact which the built environment has in establishing sustainability in an integrative design process, taking into consideration four pillars of sustainability; the local environment, economy, culture and society. Estidama is distinguished from previous building evaluation tools by the following [1517]: 1. The system is organized around five core concepts specifically targeting sustainability; Living Systems, Livable City, Precious Water, Resourceful Energy, and Stewarding Materials. 2. The how to is enabled by the Estidama Integrative Design Process (EIDP) concept and Innovative Practice. Under this structure stakeholders will be driven to think about sustainable development as an integrated process of design, construction and operation [16].
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3. Building sustainability is evaluated holistically within the local context of the U.A.E., the regional context of the mid-east, as well as within the global context (5 pearls rating). 4. Building evaluation occurs as well as through the building life cycle. 5. Each building type use typologies adopted by Estidama has a different emphasis or weighting in the context of Abu-Dhabi. For example, points accredited for development density is weighed by 2 credit points for office buildings, 4 credit points for retail, while it is not considered for residential buildings. In 2009, Estidama Pearl Rating System for school buildings emerged as a local effort in the UAE following the Estidama initiative [18]. As part of the Pearl Building Rating System, sustainable performance of schools buildings is assessed against seven main criteria, namely Integrated Development Process (IDP), Natural Systems (NS), Precious Water (PW), Resourceful Energy (RE), Stewarding Materials (SM), Innovating Practice (IP), and finally Livable Buildings (LB) which covers 2 subcategories; Livable Outdoors (LBo), and Livable Indoors (LBi). In LIS, the school building under study, the main sustainable additions to the building were in the form of 3 systems; green walls, Photovoltaics and grey water recycling systems. These systems directly address the Estidama criteria of Integrated Development Process (IDP), Natural Systems (NS) Precious Water (PW) and Resourceful Energy (RE), as explained in the following sections.
3 Estidama criteria and sustainable building systems at LIS

3.1 The green wall and natural systems criteria (NS) The Estidama NS criteria extend to the concept of creating a green gradient. It also reflects the green infrastructure strategy in plan and form, as well as in implementation, leading to healthier ecosystems, habitats and ultimately communities [18]. The Green wall system installed at LIS, directly addresses this criteria. More specifically, it directly establishes the following according to the rating system; the provision of a natural system design and management strategy; enhancement in ecological value; and habitat creation, restoration and provision of habitat connection. A number of studies have been studying the impact of green walls on reducing cooling demand in buildings [1923]. In their study, Wong et al. [19] concluded that in Canada, there is proven evidence that vertical greenery systems can reduce air conditioning load by shading walls and windows from incoming solar energy resulting in a 5.5C reduction in the immediate outdoor temperature and a corresponding energy reduction by 5070%. While the shading effect was found to reduce the energy cooling load by about 23% and the usage of fans by 20% resulting in an 8% reduction in annual energy consumption. Results also show that vertical greenery systems can block incoming solar radiation, thus minimizing the amount of heat through the faade. To achieve the intended

amount of thermal reduction, the thermal transfer value of the envelope and the leaves coverage of a plant are useful design variables. Also, acts of urbanization worldwide result in significant changes in the thermal properties of surface materials and phenomena such as Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect have been forced. Alexandri and Jones [20] highlight the important effect of green walls is reducing the heat island effect in microclimates in urban settings. The study also suggests that if applied to the whole city scale, green roofs and walls could mitigate raised urban temperatures, and especially for hot climates, achieve energy saving for cooling buildings from 32% to 100%. Green walls also contribute towards sound reduction, which is an influential issue in school applications. They have an acoustical insulation that is far better (up to 30 db) than that of exposed wall [22]. The degree of sound insulation provided by the green wall depends mainly on factors that influence noise reductions including depth of the growing media, type of plants, the materials used for the structural components of the living wall system, and the layer of air between the plants and the wall. The use of green walls as visual attractants increases the value of the building. Moreover, green walls can help to address the lack of green space in urban environments. Plants improve human health, capture airborne pollutions, and filter harmful gases. In addition to absorbing heat and increasing thermal performance, the green wall helps to filter the air moving across it. In LIS, The existing buildings skin is composed of 20 cm. hollow block wall covered with plaster. A green wall was installed on the building facades as illustrated in Figure 2. The system is composed of the following elements: - Holding boxes: 30 X 30 X 25 cm plastic boxes made of installed connectively on the facades. - Drip irrigation pipes: 13 mm pipes are installed within the boxes as a drip irrigation system for the vegetated wall, and - Plant Foliage: holding a variation of plant species. As of date, this system is the only one experimentally monitored across the school building. Using temperature data loggers, measurements were taken on and around the internal and external surfaces of wall as well as the ambient temperature on both sides of the wall. Temperature measurements were taken in two situations: (a) locations with the vegetated walls installations, and (b) locations without vegetated wall installations. The readings took place in 2 weeks during October and November 2010. It was observed that the temperature difference between green and bare facades was higher at the start of the experiments at end of October which continued to decrease as the experiments proceeded towards mid of November. In order to further understand the effect of green faade on the indoor climate the trend in temperature difference between outdoor and indoor ambience is shown in Figure 3.
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Figure 2:
Green wall installations at LIS, Al Ain.
A_out_Green A_in_Green
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 24oct. 25oct. 26oct. 27oct. 28oct. 31oct. 10Nov. 11Nov. 3Nov. 4Nov. 7Nov. 8Nov. 1Nov. 2Nov. 9Nov. dT(*C)
Day Figure 3: Trend in temperature profiles to predict seasonal performance of the green wall installation at LIS.
Figure 3 shows that the temperature difference continued to decrease as was the gradient of decrease because the outdoor ambient temperatures started decreasing due to approaching winter. The temperature difference dropped from little above 4C to little above 1C in three week time. Provided the trend in temperature decrease continues, a negative temperature difference is expected in winter months which means the indoor temperature would be higher than

outdoor which is exactly what is required. The higher indoor temperature would increase thermal comfort in the winter months, however long time data is required to validate this prediction unavailable at this stage [4]. 3.2 Grey-water recycling and precious water criteria (PW) Because of the limited annual rainfall, hot climate, and the significant energy embodied in potable water due to desalinization in the UAE, water conservation is a priority for Estidama. It is a distinct possibility that the UAE will become even drier due to the effects of global warming. Coupled with projected population increases, the importance of accelerating water conservation and reuse efforts is clear [18]. Grey water is a strategy which may be considered to meet these criteria. Wastewater composes 50 80% of residential wastewater, while the remainder being sewage or black water [24]. In many urban areas with water shortage, grey water is recorded as the second source of domestic water supply with an average of 50% after the municipality water supply and the most common source of water for the gardens and landscaping (35%) [25]. Grey water recycling system has a number of benefits: (a) reducing water consumption by minimizing fresh water usage;(b) reducing the chemical used for water treatments; and (c) reducing energy use; and increasing plant growth. In LIS, two purification tanks are installed with a capacity of 3000 Gallons each. However, the actual collected grey water per day is 1.47 m3 from each tank (with a total of 2.94 m3 per working day). This amount of grey water is used only for irrigating the green walls along with municipal supplies. The irrigation system covers only two 5-6 minutes irrigation cycles per day. It should be mentioned that this system is currently under monitoring by the research team and in terms of reduction in annual consumption, and potential reductions in utility bills. Figure 4 illustrates the water tanks and filters installed.
Figure 4:
Grey water tanks and filters installed at LIS.
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3.3 Photovoltaics and resourceful energy criteria (RE) Within the Estidama Resourceful Energy section emphasis is on reducing the demand for energy through passive environmental design, appropriate selection of highly efficient mechanical and electrical equipment, and the facilitation of renewable energy installations [18]. Photovoltaic panels installations directly contribute towards these criteria. When they displace conventional building materials, savings in the purchase and installation of the latter lowers the net cost. They can, in high-volume production, lead to lower substrate, distribution and installation costs. Roofs in particular offer an attractive location for this kind of installation because of unshaded solar access and that flat-roofs generally enable more optimal solar cell placement and orientation. All PV manufacturers provide performance information at STC and which include open circuit voltage, short circuit current, MPP voltage current, power and efficiency and temperature coefficients. All these parameters at STC are not sufficient to predict the operation of each PV technology under outdoor conditions. Because of this the performance outcome of the energy yield, the outdoor efficiency and performance ratio (PR) from independent outdoor PV technology assessments are becoming important [25]. Performance of PV systems is directly related to environmental and operational conditions. An assessment of the effects of irradiance, temperature, soiling and power rating on the performance comparison of each technology has been made [27]. At LIS, 62 photovoltaic panels of Maximum Power (Pmax) = 128 W, are installed on the roof of the main building (A). Two groups of batteries, 62 12V200AH batteries collectively, are located in an adjacent room. On the roof of the kindergarten building (B), 12 panels are similarly installed along with 12 batteries for storage. The energy collected from this system is currently used for night landscape light and operating the grey water purification plant. Productivity of the system and resulting, energy savings are currently under investigation by the research team.
Figure 5:
Photovoltaic panels installations at LIS.
4 Conclusion
The Estidama rating system developed with the aim of introducing Estidama to the Emirati built environment is an essential consideration for future school buildings which are characterized by its unique occupancy and energy consumption patterns. In the city of Al Ain, an individual attempt for transforming a conventional school building into a sustainable campus, has resulted in integrating 3 systems; namely the green wall, photovoltaic panels and grey water recycling, which contribute directly in the following Estidama criteria: - Integrated Development Process (IDP): this directly relates to the design process. However, it falls beyond the scope of this paper. - Natural Systems (NS): this criteria was met in the pilot school under study through the installation of green walls, which proved to be an efficient system in the duration of the initial data acquisition and analysis process in a number of ways, one is that during winter months it is expected that during winter months, the temperature inside the green wall is expected to be higher than the outdoor temperature. - Precious Water (PW): this was addressed through a grey water recycling system which efficiently supplies the irrigation system for the green wall with support from the municipal supplies. The system is currently under monitoring for further analysis and developing digital models simulating system performance for future practice. - Resourceful Energy (RE): a criterion which was addressed by installing photovoltaic panels which provide the energy for night light as well as operating the filters of the grey water system. The pilot project presented in this paper illustrates an early attempt for school buildings in the UAE to adopt sustainable approaches to enhance their energy performance. This project is currently under monitoring and analysis, and the results are being used to draw design recommendations which support the Estidama rating for future school buildings in the UAE.
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[4] Haggag, M. et al, 2010, Integrating Advanced Facades for Low-Energy Building Performance: Intelligent Design Criteria for the UAE, Individual Research Project, UAEU [5] Perez-Lombard, L. et al. A review of benchmarking, rating and labeling concepts within the framework of building energy certification schemes. Energy and Buildings 41, pp.272278, 2009. [6] U.S. Green Building Council. http://www.usgbc.org/DisplayPage.aspx? CategoryID=19. Access Date: October 2009 [7] BREEAM. http://www.breeam.org/ .Access date: March 2011. [8] BREEAM, Wiki. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BREEAM Access Date: March 2011. [9] SBTool. http://greenbuilding.ca/iisbe/sbc2k8/sbc2k8-download_f.htm Access Date: October 2009 [10] GBC2000. http://www.iisbe.org/gbc2k/gbtool/gbtool-main.htm. Access Date: March 2011 [11] GBTool.http://www.petus.eu.com/left.php?sct=6&sbsct=2&pageid=155&p agesect=0&pagelang=en. Access Date: March 2011 [12] U.S. Green Building Council (2007). LEED for Schools for New Construction and Major Renovations. http://www.usgbc.org/ ShowFile.aspx?DocumentID=2593. Access Date: December 2010 [13] Natural Resources Canada, Office of Energy Efficiency (2001). Benchmarking guide for school facility managers. http://oee.nrcan.gc.ca /Publications/commercial/pdf/m92-221-2001E.pdf. Access Date: December 2010 [14] Hernandez, P. et al., Development of energy performance benchmarks and building energy ratings for non-domestic buildings: An example for Irish primary schools, Energy and Buildings, 40, pp. 249254, 2008. [15] Estidama. http://www.estidama.org/Default_en_gb.aspx. Access Date: March 2011 [16] Estidama, The Pearls Design System: New buildings rating method (May 2009) Update Release. [17] Urban Planning Council, Abu Dhabi. Integrated Design as a foundation for Estidama. (January, 2009), http://www.estidama.org/$Common/Doc/ IntegratedDesignAsAFoundationForEstidama.pdf. Access Date: October 2009 [18] AbuDhabi Urban Planning Council (2010). The Pearl Rating System for Estidama Building Rating System, Design & Construction (Version 1.0). http://estidama.org/template/estidama/docs/PBRS%20Version%201.0.pdf .Access Date: December 2010. [19] Wong, N. et al., Energy simulation of vertical greenery systems, Energy and Buildings, 41, pp 1401-1408, 2009 [20] Alexandri, E. & P. Jones, Temperature decreases in an urban canyon due to green walls and green roofs in diverse climates, Building and Environment, 43, pp 480-493, 2008 [21] Wong, N. et al., Thermal evaluation of vertical greenery systems for building walls, Building and Environment, 45, pp 663-672, 2010

[22] Kontoleon, K. & E. Eumorfopoulou, The effect of orientation and proportion of a plant-covered wall layer on the thermal performance of a building zone, Building and Environment, 45, pp 1287-1303, 2010 [23] Eumorfopoulou, E. & K. Kontoleon, Experimental approach to the contribution of plant-covered walls to the thermal behavior of building envelopes, Building and Environment, 44, pp 1024-1038, 2009 [24] Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station. http://msucares.com /lawn/landscape/sustainable/greywater.html Access Date: April 2011. [25] ABS, 2007, Environmental Issues: Peoples Views and Practices, March 2007 (cat. no. 4602.0) [26] Makrides, G. et al., Temperature behavior of different photovoltaic systems installed in Cyprus and Germany, Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, 93, pp. 1095-1099, 2009 [27] Zinsser B. et al., Rating of annual energy yield more sensitive to reference power than module technology, 35th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference Proceedings, pp. 1095-1099, 2010
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Eco-industrial parks: technologies and procedures for low environmental impacts

A. Boeri & D. Longo
University of Bologna, DAPT, Faculty of Architecture of Cesena, Italy
Abstract
Negative environmental impacts related to the production system entail the rethinking of existing industrial areas and its organizational and technical requirements. An eco-industrial area is a new organization of the production site that aims to facilitate companies to achieve their environmental objectives. The model of this area is based on the assumption that infrastructures and services are present in the industrial site and managed so to create business development, reducing environmental impact. This new concept of industrial area, characterized by organizational and technical requirements aiming at minimizing the environmental impacts, arises from the need to replace the so-called end-of-pipe approach with the principle of prevention one, therefore removing, as much as possible, pollutants from the production cycle. An ever increasing number of countries are regulating new and existing industrial areas, through specific standards that provide measures and actions taking into consideration the ecological aspects. The production model of ecological industrial areas is based on the principle of low environmental impact, assured through planning of infrastructures, services and production cycles resulting in territory and companies development, while preventing and controlling environmental pollution. This paper focuses on the importance of technological innovation. In particular it aims at defining the performance of industrial areas and at contributing to the definition of specific environmental factors monitoring: the greenhouse effect, CO2 emissions, the presence of toxic elements, the consumption of non renewable resources (energy and materials), the exploitation of natural resources, the depletion of biodiversity, soil contamination, water and air pollution, as well as noise and electromagnetic pollution.

This paper highlights the critical aspects and considers the objectives to be achieved for attending the best situation. The analysis of the critical factors of the industrial area should correspond to their ranking in terms of dimensions and of coping with their conscious choices. Some best practices are described as reference. The aim is to propose low environmental impact industrial areas, including the transformation of existing ones, highlighting the importance of a sustainable integrated management in relation to the urban or suburban area they are in. Keywords: innovation, technology, sustainability, environmentally friendly industry, university research.
Introduction
The definition of a productive area ecologically equipped (fig. 1) supposes the use of clean technologies for the installation and management of industrial areas [1]. A recent standard provides that in production areas specific performance-related requirements, ensuring the health and safety as well as hygiene at work, aimed at preventing and reducing air pollution, water and soil contamination, are complied with. These requirements also concern the proper disposal and the possibility of waste recycling, as well as the treatment of wastewater, a reduction in energy consumption and its efficient use; prevention, control and management of risks of accidents; a suitable and efficient access for people and goods. This approach presumes the application of ecological-related technologies and infrastructural solutions, foreseeing, for instance, the installation of energy production plants from alternative sources or of high efficiency plants (solar, cogeneration, micro generation) and the use of green building techniques for industrial constructions [2].
Figure 1:
Le Corbusier the green industry (1944).
The methodological approach
The model of eco-friendly productive area with high environmental performances should be aiming at [3]:
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facilitating small and medium sized companies in reaching a better level of their own environmental performances, through the adoption in common of infrastructures and services of high quality they otherwise wouldnt be able to have access to or manage, individually; allowing the control and reduction of the combined impacts, generated by all said small and medium sized companies; easing a more efficient control of environmental impacts by the relevant authorities; facilitating the environmental certification of each single company, from technical and economical point of view, through the production area environmental management; facilitating or not requiring companies in obtaining the environmental licenses both for issue or renewal purposes; simplifying all procedures related to the set up and establishment of companies in the production area; applying the principles of precaution, prevention and reduction of pollution; involving the companies in the process of an ongoing improvement of the environmental performances in the production area and in a process related to environmental responsibility.
The environmental performances of eco-industrial parks are monitored by the Management Authority which is also responsible for coordinating the implementation of an area-related environmental plan to the common benefit of all companies. The Management could have the power to undersign collective agreements (e.g. energy supply contracts), promote the area under an economic and environmental point of view, to implement waste recycling, wastewater treatment, manage the lighting networks, issue the environmental licenses related to the services it provides for the common use of all companies. The advantages for a company deciding to establish itself in the productive area such as this are tied to the use of common infrastructures and their related management and to the services provided. The development of industrial areas of high environmental energy quality level can improve the general competitiveness of the production system, offering costs savings, infrastructures and services in common, a shared environmental management and a costs reduction for the energy supply [4].
3 Definition of eco-industrial park performance related profile

The new industrial areas which are developing in some Italian regions have been designed to assure specific energy and environmental requirements, therefore planed so to integrate R&D and facilitate companies. This approach involves high investments costs and presents higher problems for the regional, district and area authorities during negotiation with private companies [5]. The area attractiveness can be increased by improving its overall image through a revision of the urban planning, the quality of its architecture, a presetting of mitigation works and of natural setting, highlighting the ecological quality of the area, while offering information and support to companies for the

access to European funds even for the different environmental certifications and promoting and developing all necessary territorial marketing initiatives in order to facilitate the transfer of companies reputed leaders in the own field, today delocalised. As regards the performance related characteristics, one of the most interesting and comprehensive reference is the legislation on the matter of technical coordination and guide-lines concerning the realization of eco-friendly industrial areas in Emilia Romagna, as provided by the Regional Law. The objective of this instrument is to define the modalities for the realization and the management of eco-industrial parks in the region and for a whither and increasing establishment of productive areas equipped with technical and organizational requirements, aiming at limiting and managing the impact on the environment to prevent pollution as well as support a sustainable production and economical development. To this purpose, the choices to be adopted as regards the systems present in the area are as follow: the economical system, the set up, infrastructures and transport system, water supply, hydro-geological safety, landscaping, energy supply, waste management. For each of the above, the activities aiming at ensuring environmental, economical and social sustainability are as follows [6].
Economic and establishment system
Provide the establishment of activities granting environmental, social and economical sustainability. The ecosystem approach to be adopted in the definition of the characteristics of eco-industrial parks refers to planning, within the scope of which decisions of primary importance have to be taken, such as for instance the location of the plant, the buildings ratio index, the use allowed, the applicable technologies related to environmental quality, to a responsible production and consumption, to a high quality level of the work place, to the end of the resources natural cycles. The objective is to ensure /assure wellbeing and comfort for the end-users, high performances of buildings in terms of energy saving, integration of the buildings within their specific environment.
Infrastructure and transport system
Increase the efficiency of road and rail networks, of the exchange centres and of the logistic platforms to optimize the access to the area. Eco-industrial park infrastructure system has to foresee optimal access for goods and people through the local public transport system, the area mobility management and opportunities of a more structured flow of goods moved by the logistic systems. An efficient access road system has to be matched by a good internal organization of the production area, which will ensure a suitable environmental
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management, thanks to also the use of proper signs and an improved service and promotion of the local public transport. The road set up allows a rationalization of logistics, with subsequent costs reduction for the companies and a decrease of vehicles in circulation contributes to limit in emissions. The role of a Mobility Manager should be taken into consideration, responsible for the company mobility to optimize the home-work transfer of the employees; this role could be covered also by the Management Authority in order to identify activities that benefit the SME. The Mobility Manager should plan and evaluate the goods transport system in the area and coordinate the logistic network.
Water supply and hydro-geological safety
In the eco-industrial park area over-ground and underground water systems should be controlled and improved to protect water supplies (fig. 2), reduce consumption and waste; at the same time the soil fertility has to be protected, avoiding any erosion and contamination processes, caused by specific activities carried out or by accident spillages.
Figure 2:
Integrated application of technologies for management and collection of rainwater. Calculation of the coefficient of runoff of water and the achievement of minimum standards of permeability that could be required for each industrial building.
Landscaping system
Improve the quality of open spaces. The objectives to be achieved during the planning of an eco-industrial park include a guarantee quality of the open spaces (fig. 3).
Figure 3:
A green area to be preserved by the plan of a future eco-industrial park.
It is possible when the intervention results in harmony with the natural and anthropic elements of the landscape it is set in. The eco-industrial park urban landscaping plan should take into consideration the pre-existing elements to be promoted and/or reused. Among these, one of the most important elements is any water courses present because they are considered very important ecological corridors as they are used as a crossing route by the local flora and fauna. Improve the quality of the existing and new buildings. Besides the quality of open spaces, but not secondary to it, the quality of buildings is another objective to be achieved, through the experimentation and application of new materials and design solutions, as well as the development of innovative methods for diagnosis and monitoring of energy consumption and overall performances.
Energy supply system
Reduce consumption of energy for thermal-humidity indoor control. Energy consumption must be reduced by at least 20% when compared to the current one, according to the international agreements on climate changes. A minimum standard of energy efficiency class should be provided through incentives aiming at reducing planning application fees together with the requirement of using solar panels (fig. 4).
Waste management system
Waste management plays a significant role in developing a sustainable environmental strategy. The models of integrated waste management aim at not only preventing and reducing the environmental impact of the management
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Figure 4:
Solar panels on an industrial building roof.
cycle, but also at the overall improvement of the man-environment system and at a more sustainable use of resources. In general the industrial sector should be paying more attention to the technologies for reducing and recovery/recycling waste in the relevant manufacturing processes, prompted and encouraged by technical and economic requirements and by an in depth knowledge of their production cycles.
10 A case study: the Nonantola (MO) eco-industrial park, a detailed plan PIP production area Gazzate
10.1 Location and characteristics of the area The area is located to the west of the town of Nonantola, near an existing production area, known as Gazzate (fig. 5), representing the area natural and consequent expansion to the north. The existing production area covers about 550.000 square meters. The total land area of the project (ST) is of 171.612 m. Here its possible to built max 61.530 m of floor area for productive use. A preliminary study has identified the main issues and has defined possible action-lines for improving and streamlining the agglomeration. In particular, a feasibility study was prepared by the Agency for Energy and Sustainable Development of Modena in order to achieve energy saving in energy production and distribution facilities. The planned expansion will be carried out under the guidance of a single responsible body, the Consortium for Productive Activities Areas and Services, which shall be responsible for planning, Plan implementation and for managing
Figure 5:
Satellite image of the area of Gazzate.
the industrial area, paying particular attention to the environmental compatibility aspects. 10.2 Social-economical and establishment system Common spaces and services. Within the area 1.200 m are designated for services for industries and the site personnel. This forecast is closely linked to the requirement on the matter of environmental and social aspects, laid out in the so-called draft agreement. In the area there is cars only parking place, a parking lot for heavy vehicles, a building for community services and a co-generation plant. A small park surrounds the area to the south. 10.3 Sewers and water purification systems Systems for reducing water runoff and for ensuring the quality of surface water. The management of storm water run-off is also provided through the collection and treatment of rainwater and, where possible, its partial reuse. Systems for ensuring the disposal of waste water and for providing water purification systems. Separate networks for collection systems of rain water and sewage are provided and particular attention is paid to ensuring a suitable treatment plant. 10.4 Water supply system Systems for reusing of rainwater. Realization of public and privately owned irrigation systems fed by rain water basins in order to avoid or limit the number of connections to the public water system. Adoption of systems to optimize the water cycle: - installation of solar plants for the production of hot water: 128 m2 of solar collectors are forecasted;
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a reduction of water runoff peaks through the implementation of green roofs on top of the industrial buildings; use of water saving bathroom fittings; limiting of soil sealing ensuring a significant green area both public and privately owned lots; collection of rainwater in the productive area in order to purify it rather than leaving it to seep into the ground; assessment of water needs of the area and inspection of the area for the water presence.
10.5 Energy supply system Reduction of energy consumption for the thermo-hygro indoor control: - thermal insulation of the buildings envelopes compliant with the energy parameters set by law (LD 311/2006 and subsequent amendments and supplements); - adoption of shielding systems for the glazed surfaces, suitably positioned and sized to avoid glare and overheating in the summer; - natural ventilation systems or in combination with passive solar systems to ensure air circulation inside; this is important for improving the levels of indoor comfort; - district heating network fed by high-efficiency cogeneration system; - heating system by using floor radiant panels (fig. 6); - heat pumps instead of traditional boilers are particularly suitable for emitting heat at low temperatures in combination with under floor heating system; - the exposure was planned to provide the maximum intake of natural light and maximize passive solar energy; - the distance between buildings is such to ensure each building the right sunlight intake and with no shadows, projected from the surrounding buildings, as checked by 21st December;
Figure 6:
Radiant panels for heating system.

the glazed surfaces are sized in relation to the orientation and to the needs of sunlight; the production areas inside the buildings receive light through shed openings located on the roofs and installed with a 30 degrees slope and suitably spaced to avoid shading; this system enables the installation of solar/photovoltaic panels on the south side (fig. 7).
Figure 7:
Photovoltaic panels on shed roofs.
Area common energy management. In the industrial area a particularly efficient energy management is possible since all companies can be supplied by a single district heating system powered by high efficiency cogeneration plant. The district heating network (fig. 8) enables to centralize the thermal energy production and therefore to better control the emissions and efficiency of the plant/s connected to the network.
Figure 8:
The eco-industrial area of Gazzate. Proposal for district heating network.
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10.6 Infrastructures and logistics The objective of the program developed by the Institute for Transport and Logistics of the Emilia Romagna Region with the Consortium and other major companies of Modena is the reduction of mobility and optimization of the logistics of the companies already established or to be established in the area. Through a planning of the movement of goods and people significant advantages can be obtained in terms of efficiency, traffic relief, a reduction of energy consumptions, costs savings and environmental benefits (fig. 9).
Figure 9:
The reduction of mobility in the area could lead a reduction of energy consumption and decrease in traffic.
To this end, the work plan developed involves the testing of a model for transport sharing between the companies. 10.7 Landscaping system Quality of open spaces. The project aims at minimizing the impact of the intervention on the landscape through the establishment of suitable green area. Improve the quality of the existing and new buildings. The goal of achieving high standards of urban and ecological-environmental quality leads, first of all, to the decision of adopting the relevant current Standards. The method adopted strives to combine different aspects: economical, social and environmental ones, with a view to create a workplace, where the production function is positively influenced by a series of factors that determine, at the same time, its environmental compatibility.
References
[1] Gibbs David, Deutz Pauline, Implementing industrial ecology. Planning for eco-industrial parks in the USA, Geoforum 36, pp. 452-464, 2005 [2] Cavallo Marino, Stacchini Valeria (edited by), La qualificazione degli insediamenti industriali. Verso la costruzione di Aree Produttive Ecologicamente Attrezzate, CLUEB, 2007 [3] Bollini Gabriele, Borsari Luca, Stacchini Valeria (edited by), Insediamenti Industriali e Sostenibilit. Linee guida per la realizzazione delle Aree Produttive Ecologicamente Attrezzate della Provincia di Bologna, Alinea Editrice, 2007 [4] Tarantini Mario, Dominici Arianna, Analisi dei parchi eco-industriali europei, ENEA, PROTP135-090, 2005 [5] DAngelo Emidio, Manna Carlo, Marani Mauro (edited by), Energia e ambiente. Enea per le regioni e i distretti produttivi, Dossier Workshop Roma. 5 luglio 2006 [6] Boeri Andrea, Longo Danila, Criteria and technologies for ecological industrial areas. Collaboration between industry and University, in INTED 2010 Proceedings of International Technology, Education and Development Conference, Valencia, march 2010, IATED, pp. 2238-2248
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Overview of current energy policy and standards in the building sector in Iran
M. Riazi1 & S. M. Hosseyni 2
1 2
Energy Rating Services, UK Islam ic A z ad University, A z adshahr B ranch, Iran
Abstract
The enormous growth in urbanisation worldwide, particularly in developing countries, has negatively affected the local, regional and global environment. It will have a profound impact upon world demand for energy, if this trend continues. It should be noted that the major source of energy use in Iran is fossil fuel, which inevitably leads to exhaustion of energy supplies as well as environmental problems (notably air pollution and greenhouse gas emission). According to the energy balance 2008, the Iranian building sector accounts for about 42% of total energy use. This huge amount of energy consumption has pointed out the need for more restricted energy efficiency policies to address a substantial reduction of CO2 emission in the building sector and consequently ensuring climate security for future generations. The authors made a careful consideration of the code for energy efficiency of buildings, the Iran national standard and the renewable energy status in the country. In this paper, relevant facts and figures about the Iranian building energy consumption and CO2 emission have been presented. The current energy efficiency policies have been reviewed, including: the national code for sustainable design- Code No. 19- and National standards related to energy efficiency. The government policies on development of environmentally friendly energy resources and their progress during the last decade have been presented. Code 19 and renewable energy policy have been implemented by 20 and 38 percent by 2010 respectively. Accordingly, it is essential to establish more efficient strategies in these cases to meet the government target. The paper

concludes by presenting possible solutions to overcome barriers in implementation of building energy regulation in Iran. Keywords: energy policy, building sector, energy efficiency, renewable energy, Iran.
1 Introduction
Iran, with its young population, is the second largest country in the Middle East. The growing needs for housing and the lack of energy efficiency in existing buildings causes a considerable increase in the energy demand building sector. As the major source of energy use in Iran is fossil fuel, the chief environmental problem associated with energy consumption is greenhouse gas emission. Building energy consumption accounts for 41.9% of the total energy use in Iran in 2008. The main sources of energy consumption are: natural gas 66%, Petroleum 20%, electricity 2.5% and other sources 1.5% [1]. Average energy consumption in the residential sector compared to the same conditions in Europe is over 2.5 times higher and in comparison with cold regions in Europe is over 3.5 times higher [2]. This shows the importance of this sector in energy efficiency policies. In this paper, first, relevant facts and figures about the Iranian building energy consumption and their resources presented. Then the authors describe the general energy policy in Iran including; the national regulation and energy efficiency standards in the Iranian building sector. Finally, the government policies on development of renewable energy sources and their progress during the last decade reviewed. The paper concludes by discussing possible solutions to overcome barriers in implementation of energy efficiency policies in Iran.
2 Analyses of the building energy consumption in Iran

As mentioned before, building energy consumption accounts for 41.9% of the total energy use in Iran in 2008. Fig. 1 illustrates the building energy consumption in comparison to the total energy use in Iran from 2001 to 2008.
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total energy consumption Building energy consumption
Million barrels petrolium equivalent
Figure 1:
Building energy consumption in Iran [3].
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Despite the growth in the energy consumption in the building sector during the last decade, there has been a slight decrease from 44.5% to 41.9% between 2007 and 2008, fig. 2. This achievement shows the positive impact of some policies, such as a price reform for energy, compiling Code No.19 (the national code for sustainable design) and incentive programmes.
46.0 45.0
Percentage
44.0 43.0 42.0 41.0 40.0 2001 43.7 2002 45.1 2003 43.7 2004 44.4 2005 44.1 2006 45.1 2007 44.5 2008 41.9
Figure 2:
The percentage of building energy consumption in Iran [3].
As part of the building energy resources, natural gas and petroleum products account for 66% and 20% respectively, electricity 13% and renewable energies just 1%. Figure 3 illustrates the proportion of share of fossil fuel resources, including natural gas and oil products, comprising the largest share of energy resources in the building sector. Considering the negligible share of renewable energy among energy sources a stricter response is obvious.
1% Natural gas Oil products 20% 66% Electricity Other sources
13%
Figure 3:
Share of energy resources in building sector in Iran [3].
Figure 4 shows the share of different energy consumers in buildings in Iran. Heating, cooling and hot water account for 83% of the overall usage, appliances

for 8%, lighting and other elements for 9%. As heating, cooling and hot water are the main energy consumers in buildings, energy efficiency programmes in this area will have a profound impact on the energy consumption in the building sector.
4% 5% 8% Heating and cooling Hot water 22% Appliance 61% Lighting Other
Figure 4:
Share of energy consumers in building sector in Iran [4].
The significant consumption of energy in the building sector causes a considerable CO2 emission from buildings. The building sector accounts for 38%, transport 34%, industry 24% and agriculture 4% of the total CO2 emission in Iran.
4% Agriculture 38% 24% 34% Transport Industry Building
Figure 5:
Share of CO2 emission resources in Iran in 2008 [5].
This paper investigates the Iranian buildings potential for greenhouse gas mitigation through the following aspects; Energy conservation policy in buildings Replacement of fossil fuel with renewable energy
3 The energy conservation policy for the Iranian building sector

3.1 General energy efficiency policy In the Iranian second five-year plan (19951999), energy conservation issues have been considered. Following the assessment of initial projects during that
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period, further schemes and new ideas were developed in the third and fourth five-year plans. Here are some examples of these: - Preparing technical specifications and standards for equipment. - Imposing tariffs for importers and manufacturers who do not follow the consumption patterns related to energy efficiency standards. - Allocating an appropriate fund for research into energy efficiency (equivalent to two percent of the total interest of energy sales). - Preparing energy efficiency regulations in the design and construction of buildings in order to avoid energy waste. - Setting up policies to encourage the use of efficiency standards in existing buildings. - Incorporating energy efficiency schemes in education. - Promoting energy efficient equipment and technologies for factories. - Developing the principles of sustainable development in various regions. 3.2 National energy efficiency regulation; Code No. 19 The first national building code on energy conservation, Code No. 19, was approved in 1991 by the Ministry of Housing and Urbanism. It was revised several times and in 2001 finalised and imposed on construction and building organisations. Code No.19 considers buildings energy conservation in different part of buildings, include [6]: - External wall insulation - Install double glazing windows with thermal brick frames, wooden or standard PVC - Insulation of air channels, pipe installations and hot water production system - Installation of local control systems such as thermostatic valves on the radiators - Installation of weather compensators. Currently Code No. 19 is mandatory for all public buildings. For other buildings a schedule has been introduced to apply improvements. Table 1; demonstrates the categorisation of provinces according to the climate they are located in. The priority in the schedule is for buildings with high demand of energy, for example cold and hot regions. Table 1:
Category A B C
Current Iranian counties categorised on energy demand [7].

Energy demand High Medium Low Province Hormozgan, Bushehr, East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan, Chahar mahaal and bakhtiari, Ardabil, Hamedan, Khoozestan and zanjan Isfahan, Semnan, Kordestan, Qazvin, Kerman, Kermanshah, Markazi, Fars, Ilam North Khorasan, South Khorasan, Razavi Khorasan, Lorestan, Gilan, Qom, Golestan, Mazandaran, Sistan and Baluchistan, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-ahmad, Yazd

Although the implementation of Code No. 19 in a building results in 5% increase in initial cost, in the long term it will reduce the total building costs. The capacity of heating and cooling systems will be reduced by 40%, which leads to a reduction in building expenses in the future [7]. 3.3 Barriers to the implementation of code no. 19 Progress in the implementation of Code No.19 is disappointingly slow, and has been only achieved to a level of approximately 20% of the target by 2010 [8]. The barriers to the implementation of Code No.19 include: - Low energy price in the country - Lack of the special code for residential buildings (Code No. 19 is a general code for all buildings) - unrealistic legislation which is not considering executive potential of the country - The high cost of code No. 19 and energy efficiency standards implementation - Lack of assessment system to evaluate energy wastage and CO2 emission (Energy Performance Certificate) - Lack of controlling bodies for Code No. 19 in order to control new buildings step by step - Lack of co-operation and liaison with relevant organisations (Engineering, municipalities, Ministry of Housing and Institute of Standards, IFCO and ...) in the implementation of Code No. 19 - Insufficiently trained engineers, supervisors and architects for Code No. 19 - Lack of skilled workers in the fields of Code No. 19 (insulation, installing double glazing windows, Thermostatic valves and )
4 Renewable energy development policy

Today the increased consumption of energy worldwide and consequently the risk of quick exhaustion of fossil resources has forced the countries to look for further alternative energy resources. The decreasing level of fossil fuels is not the only reason to look into renewable energy. The main reason to switch to cleaner energy production is global warming. Burning of fossil fuel is the main source of carbon dioxide emission. Countries like Iran, with abundant oil and gas reserves, should not rely on those resources. Instead an energy policy should be introduced to encourage the use of a variety of alternative resources. Iran is considered to be one of the richest countries in the world with regards to different energy resources. Although it holds significant non-renewable fossil fuel resources, like oil and gas, it also has a great potential in terms of the renewable energies, like wind and solar energy. In Iran, further to policies made by the Ministry of the Energys Deputy Directorate for Energy, Iran Renewable Energy Organization (SUNA) has been looking into this area since 1995, in order to gain further knowledge and develop technology for the utilization of
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renewable energy resources. Measurement of potentials and execution of various projects, including solar, wind, geothermal and biogas energy can be other alternatives. 4.1 Solar energy Iran, in spite of being very rich in conventional energies, has also great potential for a large-scale application of solar energy systems. The country consists of 60% desert with high solar energy potential. The annual average sun radiation is 2030 MJ/m2 in a day. The sunshine hours during the four seasons are as following: 700 hours during spring, 1050 hours in the summer, 830 hours during autumn and 500 hours in the winter [9]. As mentioned before, approximately 22% of the total energy consumption in residential buildings accounts for preparing hot water in buildings. With solar heaters around 70% of total energy usage for hot water could be saved [10]. Accordingly, the total energy demand in the building sector could be reduced by 15%. In order to encourage individuals and the private sectors to use solar water heaters and photovoltaic converting systems the Iranian government has provided incentive policies such as substantial subsidies. As it can be seen in Figure 6, solar power capacity has been 21 MW in 1998, and this increased dramatically to about 110MW in the year 2001. In 2002 due to the replacement of old equipment with modern technology, it reduced. Subsequently numerous power stations underwent repair works and thus the progress slowed down in 2005 [11]. Due to the unsatisfactory progress in Iran, on the one hand, and rapid progress in countries such as China and Turkey on the other hand, the need for swift action, along with International co-operation, becomes inevitable.
160 140 120 100
MWh
80 60 40 20 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 21 20 85.4 110.1 49.1 121.5 140.2 53 79 71 75
Figure 6:
The solar power generation in Iran [11].

4.2 Wind energy After the development of the environmental issues and critical concerns in the exploitation of non-renewable energy resources, the generation of wind energy is growing increasingly compared with other energy resources. Iran is blessed with four completely distinctive seasons and has a number of vast deserts. The land of Iran is mostly mountainous; the Caspian Sea is located to the north and the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea are located in the southern part of the country. The geographical location of the country and its climate indicates the availability of areas with high wind energy potential. Furthermore, the country also experiences various tropical wind flows. These are the central flows from Central Asia during the winter and the Indian Ocean during the summer, the western flow from the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea during the winter, and the north western flow during the summer. Therefore, windelectricity generators could be a suitable substitute for non-renewable resources. Studies and evaluations regarding the wind potential in Iran demonstrate that in 26 regions (including more than 45 suitable areas) the nominal capacity of the sites is approximately 6500 MW, considering a general efficiency of 33% [12]. Figure 7 illustrates the growth in the production of electricity with wind power in Iran between 2001 and 2008. The capacity of installed wind farms in Iran has shown an upward trend. In 2001 it was 10.8 MW, which increased dramatically to 89.9MW in the year 2008.
100 80 MW 60 40 20 0 2001 10.8 2002 11.4 2003 16.85 2004 24.88 2005 47.58 2006 58.81 2007 73.99 2008 89.83
Figure 7:
The capacity of installed wind farms in Iran [13].
The wind farms are mainly located at Gilan and Khorasan province. The Gilan wind farm capacity is 61.18 MW at present; plans exist to enhance production up to 100 MW. Furthermore, the installation of another 60 MW wind farm in the Qazvin province is currently being considered [13]. 4.3 Geothermal energy Interest in geothermal energy originated in Iran when James R. McNitt, a United Nations geothermal expert, visited the country in December 1974. In 1983 the
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result of several investigations identified the Sabalan, Damavand, Khoy-Maku and Sahand regions as four prospected geothermal sites in the northwest of Iran. Over the past decade SUNA has conducted a series of countrywide investigations in order to evaluate suitable zones for future investments. Ten potential geothermal sites were discovered in the country in addition to the four previously defined areas in the north-western part. Sabalan was identified as the region with the highest potential in producing geothermal energy. Since 1995, surface exploration and feasibility studies have been carried out and five promising areas were discovered. Among those prospective areas around Sabalan region, the northwest part was selected for comprehensive sample testing to estimate the reservoirs characteristics and capacity [14]. At present, the main project in geothermal energy production is located near Meshkinshar in the Sabalan region, with a capacity of 50 MW and the possibility of 370 MWh annual energy productions [15]. 4.4 Biomass and biogas plants The main sources for biogas energy are domestic and industrial sewage, animal waste, and surplus of agricultural products as well as 80% of the countrys domestic productions [9]. There are several benefits of using biogas, notably: - Converting waste into two useful products - Providing a smokeless fuel for cooking, lighting and generating electricity - Transforming organic waste into high quality fertilizer (slurry) - Keeping households and surroundings clean (waste management) - Reducing fuel wood consumption and thus saving our forests - Reducing environmental pollution and promotes family health - Using human waste as a raw material for bio-latrines as bio-digesters. Unlike fossil fuel combustion, biogas production from biomass is considered CO2 neutral and therefore does not emit additional Greenhouse Gases into the atmosphere. Hence, the focus is not only on the power production or its quantity, but on a healthy environment as the biomass energy resources are the best options. At present, two projects for this source of energy is considered in Mashhad and Shiraz with the capacity of 650 and 1060 KW power respectively, from the solid waste of the two cities. The future target is to produce 10 MW power from the waste of several large cities. A pilot prototype project for biogas is operating in Saveh, south west of Tehran, with a capacity of 600 KW power [16]. 4.5 Barriers to the implementation of renewable energy in Iran Despite the advantages of the geographical location of Iran for the extensive use of renewable energy sources, only 38 percent of the government target in the implementation of renewable energy policies has been achieved [17]. To meet the government targets, more detailed planning and a meticulous schedule should be introduced. The barriers to the implementation of renewable energy policies have been reviewed below:

The lack of a comprehensive national plan with relevant detailed guidelines Incorrect timing of the release of funds Lack of skilled specialists, consultants and controlling bodies Ignorance of the need for development of renewable energies as a result of highly subsidised energy carriers Low public awareness of the importance of renewable energy and the role of public participation in the development of renewable energy.
4.6 Conclusions and suggestions There is a great potential to reduce building energy consumption in Iran. In recent years the government has paid more attention to building energy conservation. National energy and environment policies in the governments national development plans, has resulted in the establishing of Renewable Energy Organization (SUNA) and Iranian Fuel Conservation Company (IFCO), have addressed the serious attempts of the government. Programmes focusing on energy efficiency and renewable energy sources have been introduced in order to reduce the negative impact of the enormous fossil fuel energy consumption. Furthermore, Code No. 19 has been compiled in 1991 in the building sector as a result of this strategy. However, there is still a significant gap in energy efficiency between Iran and other developed countries. In 2010, Code No. 19 and renewable energy policies have been implemented by 20 and 38 percent, respectively. Accordingly, it is essential to establish more efficient strategies to meet the government targets. Possible solutions to overcome barriers in implementing such policies are as follows: - Preparing a code for energy efficiency in residential building designs with detailed specification and guidelines (Code No. 19 is set for all buildings and is not just for residential buildings). - Producing local energy efficiency policies considering the vast climate diversity in Iran. - Setting incentive policies to enhance the interests of the private sector in energy conservation in buildings. - Allocating appropriate funds to all areas of the countries; (big cities, small towns and rural areas). - Introducing strict legislation and controlling bodies by local governments to enhance the implementation of regulations and policies in buildings at all stages. - Replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources in building designs. - Promoting environmentally compatible and highly energy-efficient building materials. - Setting up a monitoring, evaluation and impact assessment system and producing the energy performance certificate which illustrates energy efficiency and CO2 emission rating in domestic properties. The EPC
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(Energy Performance Certificate) will increase the occupants awareness of environmental impact of buildings. Training and educating professionals in the sector in order to raise their environmental consciousness. Educating building occupants and the public to raise their environmental consciousness and responsibility towards the environment. Improving the international co-operation in order to exchange experiences and to share knowledge of advanced technologies with the country.
Abbreviations
1. 2. Iranian fuel conservation company (IFCO) Iran Renewable Energy Organization (SUNA)
References
[1] Energy planning office, Energy Balance 2008, Ministry of Energy: Tehran, pp. 303, 2010. [2] Iranian Fuel Conservation Company (IFCO), Buildings office website, 2010 http://ifco.ir/building/amozesh/catalog/guide.pdf, pp3. [3] Energy planning office, Energy Balance 2008, Ministry of Energy: Tehran, pp. 42, 2010. [4] Iranian Fuel Conservation Company (IFCO), Buildings office website, 2010 http://ifco.ir/building/amozesh/catalog/solar_final.pdf, pp10. [5] Energy planning office, Energy Balance 2008, Ministry of Energy: Tehran, pp. 269, 2010. [6] Iranian Fuel Conservation Company (IFCO), Buildings office website, 2010 http://www.ifco.ir/english/building/energy/title19.asp# [7] Energy planning office, Energy Balance 2008, Ministry of Energy: Tehran, pp. 308, 2010. [8] Kazemi, Government notification website, April 2010 http://www.dolat.ir/NSite/FullStory/?id=188530 [9] Ghorashi, A.H. & Rahimi, A. Rahimi, Renewable and non-renewable energy status in Iran: Art of know-how and technology-gaps, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 15, PP. 729-736, 2010 [10] Iranian Fuel Conservation Company (IFCO), Buildings office website, 2010 http://ifco.ir/building/amozesh/catalog/solar_final.pdf, pp9. [11] Energy planning office, Energy Balance 2008, Ministry of Energy: Tehran, pp. 241, 2010. [12] Renewable Energy Organization of Iran (SUNA), February 2011 http://www.suna.org.ir/executive-windandwaves-windoffice-en.html [13] Energy planning office, Energy Balance 2008, Ministry of Energy: Tehran, pp. 236-237, 2010.

[14] Noorollahi, Y., Yousefi, H., Itoi, R. & Ehara, S., Geothermal energy resources and development in Iran, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 13, PP. 1127-1132, 2009 [15] Energy planning office, Energy Balance 2008, Ministry of Energy: Tehran, pp. 243, 2010. [16] Energy planning office, Energy Balance 2008, Ministry of Energy: Tehran, pp. 245, 2010. [17] Fadai, D., Esfandabadi, Z. Sh. & Abbasi, A., A Review on the Causes of Failure in Achieving the Goals of Irans Renewable Energy Sector in the Fourth Development Plan, Iranian journal of Energy, Volume 34, PP. 2334, 2010
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Integrating passive cooling techniques for sustainable building performance in hot climates with reference to the UAE
M. A. Haggag & S. K. Elmasry
UAE University, United Arab Emirates
Abstract
On-going development in many parts of the United Arab Emirates has consequences on the urban environment. The use of glazed facades in modern buildings has come with an increased operational cost due to the higher solar gain. However, such strategies have increased in popularity mainly in the local building industry. Thus, improving the ecological performance of buildings and minimizing the impact of urban development on the natural environment are the main concerns for developers and stakeholders in the country at present. These goals have been acknowledged by national and international architectural firms and building developers such as Foster & Partners, Creative Kingdom and Mirage Mille; which have been incorporating ecological and sustainable approaches in significant projects such as Masdar City in Abu Dhabi, and Madinat Jumeirah in Dubai, where various concepts and techniques have been used to promote energy-efficiency in the buildings and avoid increased cooling loads. The use of passive cooling techniques including natural ventilation, thermal mass, shading devices, and responsive landscaping have been adopted in significant projects to maintain the new vision of the country towards building sustainability. Other cooling techniques such as green roofs and green faades have also been practised recently in a number of projects across the country. This paper investigates alternative passive strategies for reducing energy consumption in contemporary building design and construction in the UAE. Four techniques are examined in the study: natural ventilation, thermal mass, shading strategy and green walls, and are illustrated in three case studies: Masdar City, Madinat Jumeirah, and Liwa International School in the cities of Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Al Ain respectively. The design and performance of these projects are analyzed and evaluated, with emphasis on passive and sustainable strategies.

The study concludes that sustainable building practices in the UAE in terms of cooling load reduction have been acknowledged not only in traditional buildings, but also in a number of significant contemporary projects. The study also demonstrates the potential benefits of passive cooling strategies to minimize the negative impact on the natural environment, and finally it proposes guidelines for architects and developers on passive design and construction strategies as pertains to the UAE environment. Keywords: low energy building performance, green wall, passive cooling techniques, sustainability, UAE.
1 Introduction
Following the 1971 federation and the discovery of oil, fast urban development completely changed the character of traditional cities of the UAE. The country is characterized by scarce rainfall and high temperature, humidity and sunshine. Summer daytime temperatures range from 35C to 50C. Winter daytime temperatures range from 25C to 35C [1]. The traditional urban pattern of the UAE cities was the result of the hot and humid climate. High-density buildings were constructed close together, creating narrow alleys, which were shaded most of the day. These alleys tended to run from north to south and ended at the creek, permitting the prevailing winds to pass through. The main traditional architectural features are the courtyard and the wind-tower. Most rooms look inward with a shaded veranda overlooking the courtyard, which provides a reservoir of cool air. Wind-towers are unique and elegant architectural elements, acting as conduits for trapped air to be directed to the rooms beneath. A typical traditional architectural pattern is presented in the old district of Bastakiya in Dubai, as shown in figure 1.
Figure 1:
Traditional architectural pattern of Bastakiya district (narrow alleys, courtyards and the wind-towers).
The modern urban pattern (see figure 2), which was established during the second half of the 20th century, was concerned with highly specialized building techniques. A number of enormous mega-projects have been developed mainly in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, including Burj Khalefah (the world's tallest tower located in Dubai); Madinat Jumeirah (the largest modern resort in Dubai); AlRaha Beach; Saadiyat Island; and Masdar City in Abu Dhabi. Although UAE is
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one of the hottest countries in the Gulf region, the use of glazed faades has increased in popularity, usually with increased operational costs and energy consumption due to the higher solar gain, and negative environmental impacts. Minimizing this impact on the natural environment and the efforts to improve the ecological performance of any project are the main concerns of sustainable building development during and after the construction period [2]. Thus, energy efficiency, healthy environment, and the protection of biodiversity are now the key issues in urban development in many cities such as Abu Dhabi and Dubai. How can cities with rapid urban development sustain their building practices in terms of energy consumption?
Figure 2:
New urban and architectural patterns of Dubai.
Burj Khalefah.
2 Sustainable development and passive cooling strategies

Sustainable development refers to a socio-ecological process characterized by the fulfilment of human needs while maintaining the natural environment. Sustainable Building is an approach to architectural design that emphasizes the place of buildings within both local ecosystems and the global environment. It is the practice of increasing energy efficiency, while reducing building impact on human health and the environment through better siting, design, construction, operation and maintenance [3]. Effective sustainable buildings require careful attention to the full life cycle impact of resources. Building materials, one of the key issues of sustainable architecture, should be "green" and obtained from local sources including rapidly renewable plant materials like palm fronds and bamboo, coral stone, recycled material, and other products that are reusable and renewable. Reducing energy loads is another issue for sustainable buildings. It is important to orient the building to take advantage of cooling breezes in a hot climate, and sunlight in a cold climate. To minimize the energy loads, passive solar design can be effective. Masonry building materials with high thermal mass are efficient for retaining the cool temperatures of night throughout the day. Moreover, buildings are often designed to capture cool winds. Passive solar design relies on the integration of a building's architecture, materials selection and mechanical

systems to reduce heating and cooling loads, taking into consideration local climatic conditions to create climate-responsive, energy conserving structures that can be powered with renewable energy resources [4]. The most important step in the passive cooling process is to develop an energy efficient building envelope to minimize heat gains and catch cooling breezes, for example: orienting more windows to the north; incorporating adequate shading to prevent solar radiation; incorporating thermally massive building materials; suitable insulation; high performance glazing to reduce heat gain and admit natural light. Landscape and outdoor spaces are also important passive cooling strategies. Vegetation, green roofs, green walls, water ponds and fountains are efficient cooling techniques. In the UAE, where cooling is a primary concern, much can be done to capture natural breezes to keep buildings cool. Combining proper ventilation, courtyards, wind-towers, shading devices, thermal mass, vegetation and insulation can reduce energy loads for cooling. A natural passive cooling system is an option for sustaining a cool building and reducing air conditioning costs. About 30% of the unwanted heat comes in through the building roof, and more than 40% through windows [5]. To minimize the effect of radiant energy, a reflective waterproof coating and installation of a radiant barrier on the underside of the roof are essential. This can reduce heat gains by about 25% [5]. Light-coloured surfaces effectively reflect most of the heat. Reflective window coatings can also reduce the heat gain by about 35% [6]. Sun-coating films can reflect as much as 80% of the incoming sunlight [5]. Shading, insulation, plantation, and landscaping are good strategies to block the heat. In most cases, shading can reduce indoor temperatures by 10C [5]. Effective shading can be provided by well-placed trees and shading devices. Exterior shading is more effective than interior as it blocks sunlight before it enters windows. Insulation helps seal and protects buildings against the heat. The upper roof is the most important place to start insulating. Wall insulation is not as important as roof insulation because of differences in outdoor temperature between roof and wall. Floor insulation has little and sometimes no effect on cooling. Natural ventilation helps remove heat and maintains indoor temperatures close to outdoor temperatures. This strategy only works when the inside temperature is higher than outside temperature. In hot climates, a building designed for passive cooling would be as open as possible to ensure the maximum possible cross ventilation [7]. East and west walls should have a minimum of windows in order to exclude the low angle sun-rays. However, north and south walls should have enough windows to allow cross ventilation. A thermal chimney can be used to ensure ventilation by creating a warm zone with an exterior outlet. The wind-tower is another dramatic device for using the cooling potential of the available breezes. The courtyard is a common architectural feature and is considered as a microclimate modifier, which improves thermal comfort conditions in the enclosed as well as the attached built environment. The courtyard provides thermal environmental conditions through its design concept, forms and heights. During the day, the shading arcades, trees,
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and vegetation protect the building from direct solar gain, and the cool mass in the courtyard floor absorbs a significant amount of solar radiation. A massive courtyard floor surrounded by a building provides cooling, primarily by radiation to the cool, clear night sky. The night time radiation cools the mass and the air trapped in the courtyard.
3 Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai

Madinat Jumeirah (City of Jumeirah), one of the largest resorts in Dubai, was constructed in 2004 in the heart of new Dubai. It reflects the rich cultural heritage of Dubai and resembles an ancient Arabian architectural style. Madinat Jumeirah comprises two 5 stars hotels (Al-Qasr and Mina Al-Salam), courtyard summer houses (Dar Al-Masyaf), a traditional market and cultural village, a conference centre, and recreational facilities. Nearly 4km of waterway runs through the entire city. Madinat Jumeirah forms a virtual island looking down upon wind-towers, courtyard houses, pools, meandering waterways with traditional water taxis, and a private beach. The outstanding architectural concept of Madinat Jumeirah was based on a theme of old Dubai in a luxurious context. It was designed by an international multidisciplinary design firm (Creative Kingdom) and developed by Mirage Mille. The project was designed and built in an ecological and resource-efficient manner. The combination of green design techniques used in the project will not only reduce energy consumption and environmental impact, but also reduce running costs, create more pleasant indoor spaces, improve occupants' health, and reduce pollution and legal liability. Various concepts and techniques were used to design and develop energy-efficient buildings and cooling load avoidance in Madinat Jumeirah. Design strategies that minimize the need for mechanical cooling systems were adopted, including proper shading, natural ventilation, thermal mass, careful siting and orientation decisions, and good landscaping. 3.1 Shading devices Fixed shading devices are installed mainly on the south-facing windows. They are carefully designed to allow the sun to penetrate only during determined times of the year. In the summer, the overhangs block the high sun; however they allow the low winter sun to enter the windows (see figure 3). 3.2 Vegetation and landscaping Trees and vegetation are properly located and used for shading. Vegetation, pools and canals around buildings contribute to an evaporative cooling strategy. Plants improve aesthetically the surrounding spaces of buildings and decrease ambient air temperature. Based on an analytical study which was carried out by the authors, plantations can reduce the air temperature nearby buildings by up to 5C [8] in the surrounding areas. The application of plants around buildings and
Dar Al-Masyaf (courtyard summer houses).
Al-Qasr Hotel inner court.
Jumeirah traditional market. Figure 3:
Mina Al-Salam Hotel.
The use of passive cooling strategies in Madinat Jumeirah (Shading devises, vegetation and landscaping, wind-towers, and courtyards).
radiation and thus reduce energy consumption in buildings. This application can act as a protective barrier which provides buildings with better solar protections that can reduce the effect of the external load and the cooling need. 3.3 Natural ventilation: wind-tower and courtyards Buildings in Madinat Jumeirah were designed to take advantage of natural ventilation which uses the passive stack effect and pressure differential to bring fresh cooling air through buildings with limited or no mechanical systems. This strategy has been adapted by incorporating different means of outdoor air intake, including operable windows. East and west windows are limited and the majority of them are north-facing windows to reduce direct solar gain. The wind-tower has been used in Madinat Jumeirah to increase the air flow in buildings (see figure 3). Other features include fresh air inlets located near floor level, use of atriums, and courtyards that have been adapted to enhance the stack effect and to speed the indoor air flow. As shown in figure 3, courtyards have been used not only to improve indoor comfort but also to provide a pleasant outdoor environment. They help achieve desirable thermal environmental conditions not by mechanical devices but by architectural design (form, materials, floor covers and landscaping).
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3.4 Thermal mass The building skin, which separates the interior spaces from the outdoor environment, is an important concept for energy efficiency and a major factor in determining the amount of energy used in buildings. External insulated dense materials (opaque mass wall) like concrete, bricks, and other masonry covered with plaster have been used in Madinat Jumeirah in passive design way to absorb, store, and re-release thermal energy. This strategy increases comfort and reduces energy consumption by moderating internal temperatures by average day/night extremes. Building forms, volume, and orientation also have significant impacts upon the efficiency of the building skin in Madinat Jumeirah. Openings are limited and mainly directed to the north. The comparison analysis of the performance of various building skins, which was carried out by Straube, proved that the opaque mass wall has the lowest thermal transmission coefficient (U-value), and the highest sound control [9].
4 Masdar City, Abu Dhabi

Masdar City was initiated in 2006 as one of the most sustainable cities in the World. It is being constructed 17 km away from the centre of Abu Dhabi, and targeted to a 2016 completion date. Designed by Norman Foster, Masdar city is planned to be the first city where carbon emissions are zero, waste is converted to energy, desalinated water production reduced by 75%, and 80% of water will be recycled and powered by 100% renewable energy [10]. The city includes Masdar Institute of Technology, laboratories and research facilities, commercial spaces for energy related companies, and a science museum. The city will host 50,000 people, in addition to 40,000 commuters. Masdar, as a car-free city, will be linked to the centre of Abu Dhabi by a new mass transit railway [10]. Electric buses and personal rapid clean-energy vehicles are provided as inner city transport system, while a light railway is proposed to link the city with the metropolitan area. Most private vehicles are to be kept in parking lots located at the edge of the city. The city is designed to be self-sustaining; therefore, the surrounding land outside the city will contain photovoltaic and wind farms, research fields and plantations, desalination plant, water treatment plant, a recycling centre, and visitors parking. The outstanding architectural concept of Masdar City was based on traditional planning ideologies, characterized by narrow shaded alleys, courtyards, and wind-towers (figure 4). The city was designed in an ecological and resourceefficient manner. The street grid pattern is oriented on a southeast-northwest axis to catch the cooling breezes, provide shading, and reduce thermal loads on building faades. The combination of the applied green design techniques will not only reduce energy consumption and environmental impact, but also reduce running costs, create more pleasant spaces, and improve occupants' health. To produce lower greenhouse gas emissions, a variety of renewable energies are considered within the city development [10]. These technologies include: i) Solar Energy: the use of photovoltaic technology, as a solar power system is planned
Narrow shaded alleys.
Shading devices and thermal mass.
Wind-towers and courtyards.
Figure 4:
The use of passive cooling strategies in Masdar city.
to provide almost 50% of the electricity required. ii) Wind Power: large-scale wind farms are proposed and will be connected to the city electric power transmission network. iii) Concentrating Solar Power: a field of mirrors and tracking systems is provided to focus a large area of sunlight onto a specific small beam. The concentrated light is used as a heat source for a conventional power station. iv) Geothermal Heat: a heating and/or cooling system that uses the earths ability to store heat in the ground or water thermal masses. v) Waste-toEnergy: the process of creating energy in the form of electricity from the controlled combustion of municipal solid wastes. Water management has also been planned in an environmental manner. A solar-powered desalination plant will be constructed to provide the city with a water supply. About 80% of the water used will be recycled and reused for irrigation and other domestic uses. It is also planned to reduce the citys waste to zero [10]. Biological waste will be used as fertilizer; municipal solid wastes will be utilized as an additional power source; and industrial wastes will be recycled. Construction waste is heavily reused in the building industry. Waste steel, concrete, plastics, and timber are collected in a Materials Recycling Centre for processing and use in new buildings. Various passive cooling strategies have been applied to the architectural concept of Masdar City; buildings are designed in an energy-efficient manner. Intelligent shading devices are used to reduce heat gain on building faades, while increasing natural light. Pedestrian walkways are shaded with retractable awnings which can be opened at night to catch the cooling breezes. Modern wind-towers are located in the main piazzas to collect cooler upper breezes and direct them downward to the public spaces and courtyards (see figure 4). Building faades are designed in an energy-efficient way that accommodates change in the environment and in occupant needs; using self-regulating thermal protection and solar control measures, using natural, renewable energy sources. Two strategies have been taken into consideration in designing building faades: keeping cooling losses low, and avoiding undesired heat gains through solar radiation. This has been achieved by the number of glazing skins incorporated in the design and the use of solar control devices. Some buildings faades are covered with cushion-shaped ETFE (Ethylene Tetrafluoroethylene) backed by
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reflective foil to develop an intelligent faade with low thermal mass. This strategy limits heat-gain and reduces cooling need inside the buildings [11]. The above strategies have an ecological and environmental significance since they reduce the global greenhouse effect by limiting carbon emissions; and reduce the investment and operational cost of building technology.
5 Liwa International School, Al-Ain

Liwa International School (LIS) is sited in the south west end of Al-Ain City in the inner desert oasis of the UAE. The school building was constructed in 1992 and converted from conventional to sustainable green building in 2010. As a member of the global network of UNESCO affiliated schools, LIS has participated in the World Future Energy Summit 2010 with a sustainable green building project. This project aimed to reduce energy consumptions and increase energy efficiency in buildings by adopting green wall technique, using solar energy, and recycling grey water. As part of an experimental work which was carried out by the authors in 2010 [8], LIS was selected as a case study to investigate the performance of the integrated building faade with the application of green wall system in the hot climate of Al Ain city. A vegetated living wall was installed on the building faades as illustrated in figure 5. Data gathering took place immediately after installation during October and November when temperatures drop significantly in Al Ain. Orientations of the building facades were taken into consideration as well as the times when the sun has a perpendicular azimuth on the facades. Using temperature data loggers, measurements were taken on and around the internal and external surfaces of wall as well as the ambient temperature on both sides of the wall. Temperature measurements were taken in two situations: i) locations with the vegetated walls installations, and ii) locations without vegetated wall installations.
Figure 5:
Liwa International School, Al-Ain green wall application.
To analyse the thermal performance of the green faade, the temperatures on the indoor and outdoor surfaces and ambient were recorded to investigate: i) the outdoor microclimate; ii) the reduction of wall temperature; iii) resistance to heat flow; iv) the reduction of cooling need. Figure 6 shows a difference of temperature up to 2.5C in the last week of October. (The larger temperature difference is explained by local heat loss due to evaporation of the planting
Figure 6:
The temperature difference on the outdoor ambience of green and bare faades to determine the microclimatic effect of the green faade.
irrigation system and local convection due to wind flow patterns due to the thermocouples being located very close to the vegetation). To determine the local cooling effect produced by the green faade on the external wall, the external surface temperature of the green faade is compared with the corresponding external surface temperature of the bare faade, as shown in the figure 7. The green facades maintained a lower temperature which was higher at the start of the experiments and continued to decrease with few exceptions. The decreased temperature on the green facades was achieved by: i) Decreased heat gain of the green faade compared to bare faade due to incident radiations being blocked by the vegetation leaves, soil mass, and the assembly carrying the plants; ii) The evaporative cooling caused by the irrigation water to the plants; and iii) heat resistance due to low thermal conductivity of the plants compared to the masonry wall acting as heat insulators to the ambient heat gain by the wall.
Figure 7:
The cooling produced by the vegetation on the external wall of the green faade.
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Figure 8:
The resistance to heat flow offered by the green facade into the inside wall surface.
The green facade reduces heat flow from the external surface to the internal surface of the masonry wall shown by the temperature difference between the internal wall surfaces of the green and bare faade in figure 8. The effect of the green faade on the cooling demand reduction is determined by comparing indoor ambient temporaries obtained with the green and bare facades as shown in figure 9. The lower indoor ambient temperature decreases the cooling demand of the building. The lower temperature reduction can be attributed to the fact that: i) The green facade was just at the stage of inception and was not mature enough to produce a thick layer of vegetation to block substantially direct and diffused radiations and the ambient heat gains which resulted in higher indoor surface and ambient temperatures; ii) The measurements were taken late in the summer which further reduced the cooling effect due to decreased ambient temperatures. This would have led to an erroneous measurement procedure as it neglected the thermal mass effect and the time delay for the cooling effect to pass through the faade to produce reduced temperatures indoors. These mentioned problems will be addressed by: i) Taking measurements when the plants have grown enough to provide heat insulation and radiation sink; ii) Measuring data over a year for the whole day to see the effect
Figure 9:
Comparison of indoor ambient temperatures of the green and bare facades as an indicator to cooling load reduction.

of the seasonal variation, thermal mass and time lag of cooling effect to transfer into indoors; and iii) Taking measurements in the hot summer months when the outdoor temperatures are extreme and the green faade will make a difference.
6 Conclusion
Recent on-going developments in UAE have consequences on the urban environment. Minimizing the impact of urban development on the natural environment and the trend to improve the ecological performance of buildings are the main concerns of the sustainable building practices in the country. These ideologies have been acknowledged by national and international architectural firms to develop new projects that are energy efficient by incorporating ecological and sustainable approaches in their designs. The development of Madinat Jumeirah and Masdar City is a significant sustainable development that aims to reduce cooling loads and increase occupants' comfort. Various passive cooling strategies have been used to develop energy-efficient buildings and cooling load avoidance. The use of natural ventilation, thermal mass, proper shading, careful siting and landscaping have been adopted in these projects. Other cooling techniques have been used, including wind-towers and courtyards. The use of green wall as a passive technique was successfully adopted not only in the new construction projects but also in the old building faades as applied to Liwa International School at Al-Ain City. The combination of the passive cooling strategies will not only increase energy efficiency in buildings and reduce environmental impact, but also increase sound insulation and create more pleasant indoor spaces and air quality improvements.
References
[1] www.datadubai.com/technical-info [2] Botta, M. 2005, Towards Sustainable Renovation Three Research Projects. KTH, Stockholm. [3] Wheeler, S. and T. Beatley, 2004, The Sustainable Urban Development, New York. [4] Brown, G. and M. Dekay, 2006, Sun, Wind, and Light: Architectural Design Strategies, Wiley, London. [5] www.empowementzon.com [6] Vallero, D. and C. Brasier, Sustainable Design: The Science of Sustainability and Green Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, 2008. [7] www.arch.hku.hk [8] Haggag, M. et al, 2010, Integrating Advanced Facades for Low-Energy Building Performance: Intelligent Design Criteria for the UAE, Individual Research Project, UAEU [9] Straube, F. and R. Straaten, The Merit of Double Facades for Office Buildings in Cool Humid Climates, University of Waterloo, 2001. [10] Masdar Initiative and Masdar Development. www.masdaruae.com. [11] The global centre of future Energy, Masdar City.
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Visualization of the thermal environments of RC and composite-wall constructions

H.-Y. Liu
Department of Architecture, National Quemoy University, Kinmen, Taiwan
Abstract
In recent years, the promotion of environmental conservation, energy-saving methods and carbon reduction has led to the implementation of a number of new energy codes in many countries to increase building efficiency. The ultimate goal is to create a comfortable and healthier living environment and reduce issues arising from climate-related factors. The aims of this study are to discuss several cost-effective methods that can reduce energy consumption and further improve the thermal environment of buildings in a subtropical country. This research utilizes a portable infrared thermography device to closely inspect and analyze the outdoor and indoor heat-environments of buildings built with reinforced concrete (RC) or of a composite-wall construction through visualization and comparison of thermographic images. By conducting cross-comparison and analysis, various dominant factors in the heat-environment are identified. This paper compares the effect of two different construction methods on the thermal environment and identifies the benefits of using proper materials with a low heat capacity to improve the energy-saving performance. The impacts of the two construction methods on carbon reduction and the heat island effect are also explored. The results of this study can serve as a useful reference and could form the basis of recommendations for building restoration or construction. Keywords: infrared thermography, heat-environment, energy conservation, carbon reduction, thermal images.
1 Introduction
The exterior materials, construction method and quality of indoor air are vital characteristics affecting the energy consumption of a building, and control of the

thermal environment of a building and the characteristics of its exterior envelopes are keys to reducing the energy consumption of a building. In many countries, the authorities have issued technical codes for energy conservation recommending certain designs of building envelopes suitable for the local weather with the aim of reducing energy waste. This is very important in certain continental areas where winter is extremely cold. On the other hand, for countries located in a tropical or sub-tropical climate, the solutions to improve the thermal environment of a building are different. Taiwan is located in the subtropical climate zone, with hot and humid climatic conditions. Increasing urbanization and climate change have raised energy consumption and thermal environment issues correlated to building construction. The method of construction of the exterior envelope of a building and the choice of construction materials directly affect the heat transfer between the inside and outside of a building. A study by Sun et al. [1] points out that the indoor and outdoor heat flow of a building is caused by heat exchange and ventilation in the exterior walls, ceiling, roof, floors and windows, and complex factors influence the heat flow indoors and outdoors, including the temperature difference, insolation, amount of indoor ventilation, size of open vents, thermal insulation of exterior walls, insolation absorption ratio, and emissivity of exterior surfaces. Therefore, for buildings in extremely hot climates, the effect of insulation and the cooling abilities of the exterior envelopes are determined by their thermal-insulating composition and the nature of the materials used. In addition, a good ventilation system to reduce heat gain and thermal insulation to prevent heat transfer is essential. By installing proper exterior materials with good thermal-insulating properties, the influence of the outdoor heat and the absorption of insolation can be reduced, leading to improvement in the quality of the indoor environment and reduced energy consumption. In order to study the effects of different construction materials on the thermal environments of buildings, this research utilizes a portable infrared thermography device to inspect the outdoor and indoor environments of buildings through visualization of the heat-environment. By cross-comparison of the indoor and outdoor thermal environment data, the analysis process can identify various key factors affecting the heat-environment. Many conditions influence the accuracy of thermographic measurement (Balaras and Argiriou [2]) give an overview of the use of thermal infrared imaging for the detection of building defects; however, qualied personnel of several different fields with a good understanding of various principles are required to perform accurate measurement. Recently, with further improvement in the technology, analysis and diagnostics of building problems of comparable quality can be performed without the need for human experts in a substantially shorter period of time. Regarding the impact of buildings on the urban thermal environment, many studies address the most effective designs in terms of energy conservation in countries of cold climatic conditions and calculate the energy consumption; however, very few explore approaches to improve the thermal environment of buildings in subtropical countries. For this purpose, infrared thermography is powerful technique that is particularly suitable for detailed inspection. Haack et
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al. [3] point out that thermal infrared imaging is useful for promptly detecting damaged and humid sites in tunnel construction, and the technique works better than other non-destructive techniques. Sakagami and Kubo [4] develop a method using an infrared thermalgraphic device with a heating system that can identify defects in reinforced concrete (RC) objects. In this study, the critical effects of building materials and construction methods for building renovation under hot and humid climatic conditions are further explored, and the results can be used to form the basis of recommendations for building renovation and as a reference for related applications and research.
2 Methods
The exterior walls of buildings are usually constructed using composite materials. In Taiwan, the most common material for the decoration of exterior walls of residential buildings is ceramic tiles or wall paint; on the other hand, the decoration of exterior walls for office buildings is more diverse, and materials such as metal-framed curtain walls and glass curtain walls are also used. If the former materials are used, when the surface of the exterior wall flakes or cracks visibly, it has usually already been seriously damaged, and the damaged area may suffer abnormal heat conduction as compared with the undamaged area, causing a surface temperature difference. As infrared thermal imaging can be used to rapidly obtain a comprehensive picture of the entire surface temperature distribution, abnormal areas of the exterior walls can be quickly detected. In addition, if a problem arises from the buildings structure or the materials used, this technique can also be used to identify the causes and to help develop appropriate strategies for improvement. Thermal imaging technology uses infrared thermography to measure the infrared intensity of an object (e.g., a building) and its environment, and displays the temperature variation of a scanned scene. The temperature distribution of an object and its environment can be calculated and used for analysis. Comparison of the measured readings of an object with those obtained under normal conditions reveals whether the object is at an abnormal temperature. The images obtained by infrared thermography represent the surface temperature of the measured object, which is mainly affected by internal factors including the characteristics of the surface of the material and the organization of its internal structure. In addition, other environmental factors such as wind speed and moisture can also affect the accuracy of temperature measurement.
3 Visual detection of the thermal environment of buildings

Indoor and outdoor areas of abnormal and irregular thermal conductivity often contain thermal bridges. Thermal bridges can often be detected by thermal image analysis. The greater the temperature difference between areas, the more likely it is that a thermal bridge will be found: for instance, if an exterior surface temperature is above 34C and an interior surface temperature is around 25C, this temperature difference of around 69C is the best condition for

thermographic analysis. As illustrated in Fig. 1, the use of different construction materials with different heat transfer coefficient K values causes the formation of a thermal bridge. Thermal imaging can capture enough detail to identify a thermal bridge.
Figure 1:
(A) Temperature difference between the interior and exterior surfaces of a wall resulting from the use of different construction materials with different heat transfer coefficients. This results in a thermal bridge. (B) A thermal bridge in a three-dimensional area [5].
In the formation of a thermal bridge in a three-dimensional space, heat conduction occurs from a large (or small) area to a small (or large) area. The corner area therefore maintains a higher temperature by retaining energy (or a lower temperature by losing energy), because it has a larger absorption or emission area. In a three-dimensional space, the corner of the ceiling generally loses or absorbs more energy than other areas (Fig. 1). 3.1 Visualization of the thermal environment of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings This section discusses the analysis of RC frame buildings, especially old buildings, in addition to metal sheet buildings, using infrared thermography. Based on infrared thermographic analysis, the thermal images obtained reveal the reasons for energy wastage in these types of building. As shown in Fig. 2A, in an RC townhouse of over 30 years of age, the tiled and cement exterior walls
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are all of high heat capacity and store solar heat during the day. As they release this solar energy, the temperature of the exterior walls and the outside of the topfloor ceiling can reach above 30C. In addition, the temperature of the indoor top-floor ceiling and concrete walls can also easily reach above 30C (Fig. 2C 2F), which will greatly increase expenditure on air conditioning and worsen the indoor air quality and environmental comfort level. The temperatures of the outdoor and indoor top-floor ceilings and walls are not significantly different, which indicates that RC buildings do not resist heat conduction very well. This causes the indoor temperature to be close to that outdoors, resulting in additional energy being used for air-conditioning in the summer and a very cold indoor environment in the winter. In addition, metal sheet rooftop extensions are often seen in old RC buildings in Taiwan, and it can be seen from the thermal image of a metal sheet building with this type of construction shown in Fig. 2B that this leads to an even greater accumulation of heat on the ceiling.
Figure 2:
(A) An RC townhouse of over 30 years of age. (B) Metal sheet buildings have the least effective construction, with wasteful consumption of energy. Comparison of the thermal images of the indoor (C) and outdoor (D) ceiling. Comparison of the thermal images of the exterior (E) and interior wall (F).

3.2 Visual inspection of the thermal environment of a general RC residential building Figure 3 shows the application of thermal imaging to analyze the area in which efflorescence occurs. The variation in color clearly shows the temperature difference over the ceiling and walls, which indicates that moisture is unequally distributed in those areas. However, thermal images of the decorative frame moldings on the ceiling edges are not affected by the ceiling behind, which suggests that infrared thermographic analysis of the decorative materials may not reveal problems, as the characteristics of the construction materials underneath cannot be detected.
Figure 3:
(A) Color variation showing the temperature difference over the top-floor ceiling and wall where efflorescence occurs, as indicated in image (B).
Figure 4:
Color variation showing a higher temperature at the gap around the air-conditioner (A and B). Even in mid-autumn, the temperature of the top ceiling can reach nearly 40C (C and D).
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Vulnerable parts of a building with insulation problems can also be revealed by infrared thermography. If these problematic areas can be identified, suitable thermal break treatment can reduce energy loss to a minimum. Figure 4A and 4B show the temperature of the temperature of a window fitted with an air conditioner: because the gap in the window frame has not been installed with proper insulation material, outdoor heat can be transmitted across (Fig. 4A and 4B). Figure 4C and 4D show that the temperature of the top ceiling reaches up to 40C even in mid-autumn and is about 10C higher than that of other indoor areas. As most of the seasons in the subtropical climate of Taiwan are very hot and humid, the thermal comfort theory proposed by Spagnolo [6] is not applicable in Taiwan. 3.3 Window frames without thermal treatment Figure 5 shows that in a cold season the temperature of indoor window frames is still lower than that of the environment, which indicates that the window frames and glass also act as thermal bridges, losing heat in early spring. In an era in which carbon reduction is being targeted, to achieve efficient energy savings, high-heat-conduction window frames in every house and residential building should be subjected to thermal break treatment in order to reduce the cost of home energy consumption. Thermal break treatment is well worth considering when buildings are due to undergo repair or renovation. In terms of energy policy, the government might need to consider implementing a regulation that recommends such measures as the use of curtain-glass insulation to enhance thermal insulation in certain types of building. In order to reduce heat conduction, double-glazing or low-emissivity (low-E) glass windows can be employed to reduce heat flow between the indoor and outdoor environment.
Figure 5:
Thermal image of French windows (A and B); wooden window frames are often used in the construction of old buildings (C and D); comparison of the outdoor and indoor thermal images of a window in early spring (E and F).

3.4 Visual inspection of the thermal environment of buildings with a composite-wall structure Composite-wall construction is a method that employs lightweight steel frames and a dry-construction technique, reducing construction time, the use of concrete and the weight of the building structure. Therefore, this type of building employs multi-layers of materials as envelopes. In general, it is difficult to identify the position of the metal structures of RC buildings externally, but it is a simple matter to do so by detecting the temperature difference using infrared thermography in buildings with composite-structure walls (Fig. 6). As this type of building is based on dry-wall construction with composite materials, this efficiently reduces the tasks required to be undertaken during decoration or repair. 3.5 Visual inspection of the structures of buildings with composite-structure walls In a building with composite-structure walls, the supporting structure of the kitchen outer wall shown in Fig. 6C can be clearly located by infrared thermography (Fig. 6A and 6B; winter and summer), which will assist workers to avoid the metal structure when installing electrical devices such as switches, plug sockets or lighting fixtures. However, the structural steel is a good conductor and allows heat transmission in both winter and summer, therefore leading to the formation of a thermal bridge. To overcome this problem, a drywall with a low heat transfer coefficient that serves as an insulated panel should be installed to resist heat flow through it. Similarly, the roof support structure of a dry-construction building may also become a thermal bridge (Fig. 6D and 6E; summer and winter), which can be clearly seen using thermal image analysis. Therefore, thermal break treatment of the steel support structure is strongly recommended in order to avoid thermal bridge formation. In addition
Figure 6:
In a dry-construction building, the wall support structure (A and B) and the roof support structure (D and E) becomes a thermal bridge in both summer and winter. (C) and (F) are the RGB images of (A and B) and (D and E).
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to use for identifying the problem of a thermal bridge, this technique can also be used to reveal the support structure of a building with composite-construction walls, as shown in Fig. 7.
Figure 7:
Thermal imaging can reveal the support structure of a building with composite-construction walls (A). The temperature distribution curve (B) along the blue line of the thermal image shows the position of the support materials.
4 Comparison of the beneficial impacts

4.1 Outdoor microclimate of buildings Due to rapid urban expansion around the world, in addition to the hard-surface materials (of relatively high thermal conductivity) used in urban areas, most big cities still use impermeable materials for road surfaces. Few cities, Tokyo being one example, have begun to use environment-friendly water-permeable bricks for road surfacing. In Taiwan, the implementation of the use of permeable road surfaces has occurred later than in other countries, but the proportion of impermeable road surfaces laid is decreasing owing to the efforts of the Construction and Planning Agency to promote replacement materials. However, most metropolitan areas still use impermeable surfaces and include a large number of illegally-built metal sheet rooftop extensions, factors that accelerate the heat island effect. The road surfaces and metal sheet roofs of cities in summer reach a high temperature of 4050C, and some of the roofs even reach above 60C. Predominantly impermeable surfaces, such as concrete or asphalt pavements, result in alteration of the heat balance in many big cities: these materials retain heat to a great degree and augment the heat island effect, which contributes to worsening of the already poor quality of the urban environment. Murakami et al. [7] and Lin [8] suggest that urban open space can reduce the temperature by planting more trees and even cooling by wind. However, as most of the big cities in Taiwan have a very high density of high-rise buildings, those methods can only have a very limited effect on the improvement of the outdoor micro-climate and temperature comfort [9]. Therefore, as buildings of a composite-wall construction do not contain a large amount of materials of high heat capacity such as concrete, tiles or stones, they do not impact upon the micro-climate to the same degree as do RC

buildings. In general, the thermal environment around buildings of a compositewall construction is more comfortable than that surrounding RC buildings. 4.2 Diagnosis and improvement of existing buildings An RC building of over 30 years of age is used as an example to examine how the thermal environment of this type of building might be improved (Fig. 8). As described in section 3.1, the thermal images of the top-floor ceiling and outside walls demonstrate problems regarding thermal conductivity. Before renovation, the indoor and outdoor top-floor ceiling, in addition to the interior and exterior walls, were of almost the same temperature in the summer. Renovation was performed by installing composite walls on the existing building surfaces (Fig. 8B), leaving an air space of 1.5 cm between the newly-installed and the existing walls. Analysis by infrared thermography reveals that the temperature difference between the interior and exterior walls (Fig. 8C and 8D) can reach up to at least 13C, which validates the efficiency of composite-wall construction, an improvement that saves greatly on the energy consumption required for indoor air-conditioning.
Figure 8:
An RC building of over 30 years of age before renovation (A) and after composite-wall installation (B).Thermal image of the exterior wall (C) and the interior wall (D).
In comparison with the heat transfer rates of conventional RC walls (Fig. 9A), the heat transfer rates of composite walls (Fig. 9B) are calculated as below (Table 1): 1 U= 1 n d 1 1 R i h( ext) i 1 ki h(int)
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Uheat transfer rate (W/m2 K); Rtotal thermal resistance (
m 2 K ); W H(ext)heat transfer rate of exterior air film (W/m2K); H(int)heat transfer rate of interior air film (W/m2K); dithickness of material (m); kithermal conductivity of material (W/mK).
Figure 9:
(A) Diagram of the construction of a general tiled wall. (B) Diagram of a kiln-fired granite external wall with an internal air layer. Thermal properties of materials used in the construction of RC buildings. Material Plaster (concrete mortar) Concrete Kiln-fired granite Tiles Air layer Outdoor air film Indoor air film Thermal properties k=1.2W/mK k=1.4W/mK k=0.37W/mK k=1.3W/mK R=0.19 m2K/W H(int)=20W/m2K H(out)=10W/m2K
Table 1:
(1) Calculation of the individual thermal resistance of each layer of material used in tiled exterior walls, as shown in Fig. 9A (the K value of concrete mortar is used to represent the binding layer material of the tiles): Total thermal resistance
2 R0.34 ( m K )
1 1 2 U= 2.94 W/m K R 0.34

(compliant with the Technology Standards for Energy Saving in Taiwan, section 45-5: The average heat transmission rate should be lower than 3.5 W/m2K for the outside opaque walls of residential buildings.) (2) Calculation of the thermal resistance of each layer of material used in composite walls, as shown in Fig. 9B: Total thermal resistance U=
2 R0.543 ( m K )
1 1 1.842 W/m2K R 0.543
The above-calculated heat transmission rates, or U values, indicate that the majority of the heat flow is impeded externally in composite-wall constructions, and therefore the U value is only 60% that of conventional tiled RC walls. This proves that a composite-wall construction can efficiently reduce energy consumption.
5 Conclusion
In terms of the entire living environment, architectural constructions must meet some basic requirements in order to ensure the safety, comfort and convenience of the occupants. In addition to concerns regarding the environment and awareness of sustainability, health, ecology, energy-efficiency and minimization of pollution should also be taken into consideration. Therefore, buildings that possess ecological, energy-efficient, pollution-reducing and healthy features are what society expects in the 21st century. This study investigates and compares the differences between and benefits of composite-wall and conventional RC construction. The findings of this study can be used to propose solutions to improve energy consumption in RC buildings during renovation and repair. For countries with a hot and humid climate, the benefits of composite-wall construction and methods for renovation and improvement are summarized below (Table 2): 1. Cladding renovation is more effective than facade renovation in conventional RC buildings. 2. In cladding renovation of an old house, a ventilated air layer is necessary to improve the thermal insulation. 3. Composite-wall construction is a better model as it has a better insulation effect. 4. Materials used to construct multi-layer composite walls should have the characteristic of a high insulation effect: high-insulation materials such as calcium silicate boards, hygroscopic boards, glass wool, and cement and mineral fiberboards should be used, which have U values below 2.5 W/m2K. 5. Exterior walls should be constructed from light-colored materials with a low solar radiation absorption rate. 6. Increasing the thickness of the envelope structure or introducing an air layer will increase the heat capacity and extend the time lag.
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Table 2:
Comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of conventional RC buildings and composite-wall buildings.
Conventional RC Composite-wall Long Low ($330 520/m2) Often High Poor Often Poor Difficult No Short High ($660 710/m2) None Comfortable Good No Good Easy Yes This problem can be solved by adding an adaptor to the joint of the pipeline. RC buildings are poorly isolated, the indoor and outdoor temperature difference is small. Condensation on glass surfaces is not often seen. This problem can be alleviated in composite-wall buildings by installing double-glazing. In the long term, composite-wall construction is more economical, as the added value is higher. Note
Effects Construction duration Cost Efflorescence development Indoor temperature and humidity Anti-seismic capability Ceiling and wall cracks, water seepage Environmental benefits Utility pipeline maintenance Water hammer
Glass surface condensation
Mild
Yes
7. Installation of insulation layers, such as an air layer or a thermal-insulating material, in an exterior wall or a high-temperature surface results in better thermal insulation. 8. Composite-wall dry-construction can reduce the potential for efflorescence development; however, steel structures require thermal break treatment to avoid thermal bridge formation. 9. For aluminum extrusion window frames, the insertion of material with a low thermal conductivity into frames can avoid thermal bridging. Window glass should be double-glazed or low-emissivity (low-E) glass. 10. In consideration of geographical factors affecting sub-tropical countries such as Taiwan, curtain-wall construction is not suitable for building envelopes. However, if some curtain-wall construction is necessary, double-glazing or low-E glass should be used, and window frames also require thermal break treatment. 11. Top-floor ceilings can be designed as a dual-layer ceiling (with a space between the layers) to improve insulation by blocking heat transfer; the addition of a roof garden is also beneficial. 12. Thermal bridges may cause damage to the structure of a building. 13. Thermal imaging is useful to identify the location of thermal bridges.

14. In parts of a building that often become thermal bridges, some design modifications can be implemented to avoid this outcome. 15. Proper installation of thermal breaks in building envelopes can significantly reduce the cost of energy consumption.
References
[1] Sun, H., Lauriat, G. & Nicolas, X. Natural convection and wall condensation or evaporation in humid air-filled cavities subjected to wall temperature variations, International Journal of Thermal Sciences50, pp. 663679, 2011. [2] Balaras, C.A. & Argiriou, A.A. Infrared thermography for building diagnostics. Energy and Buildings, 34, pp. 171183, 2002. [3] Haack, A., Schreyer, J. & Jackel, G. State-of-the-art of Non-destructive Testing Methods for Determining the State of a Tunnel Lining. Tunnelling and Linderground Space Technology, 10(4), pp. 413431, 1995. [4] Sakagami, T. & Kubo, S. Development of a new non-destructive testing technique for quantitative evaluations of delamination defects in concrete structures based on phase delay measurement using lock-in thermography. Infrared Physics& Technology, 43, pp. 311316, 2002. [5] Fouad. A. N. & Richter, T. LeitfadenThermografieimbauwesen, Fraunhofer IRB Verlag, Stuttgart, Germany, 2007. [6] Spagnolo J. A field study of thermal comfort in outdoor and semi-outdoor environments in subtropical Sydney Australia. Building and Environment, 38, pp. 721-738, 2003. [7] Murakami, S., Ooka, R., Mochida, A., Yoshida S. & Kim S. CFD analysis of wind climate from human to urban scale. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 81, pp. 5781, 1999. [8] Lin, T.P. Thermal perception, adaptation and attendance in a public square in hot and humid regions, Building and Environment 44, pp. 20172026, 2009. [9] Nikolopoulou M. & Steemers K. Thermal comfort and psychological adaptation as a guide for designing urban spaces, Energy and Buildings 35, pp. 95101, 2003.
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Lowering the sink temperature for a desert solar air conditioning system
M. A. Serag-Eldin
American University in Cairo, Egypt
Abstract
The paper addresses the problem of cooling air conditioning systems in desert environments where ambient air temperatures are high, and cooling towers should be avoided because of scarcity of water resources. A proposed ground heat-sink is proposed which exploits the highly effective night-time desert cooling by long-wave atmospheric radiation. A simple computer model is presented for the performance of the heat-sink design, which integrates with a load calculation model for a hypothetical zero energy house, in which the air conditioning equipment is solar driven. The load-calculation and thermal-sink models are matched dynamically with the time dependent solar energy characteristics of the selected site, and predicted results are displayed and discussed. Keywords: solar air-conditioning, ZEH, renewable energy, geothermal cooling, heat sinks, COP.
1 Introduction
Modern designs for desert Zero energy houses (ZEH) provide all modern comforts, relying on solar energy as the energy source to power the homes energy needs. By far the largest energy load for this environment is the air conditioning load, e.g. Serag-Eldin [1]. Air-conditioning equipment performance is affected heavily by the heat-sink (condenser) temperature, the higher the latter the lower the COP; indeed above a certain temperature the equipment mal-functions and may shut-down altogether to protect itself. Cooling the condenser requires dissipating the heat to a lower temperature environment. The two common methods of cooling are air cooling by atmospheric air (releasing heat to the environment directly) and water cooling by circulating

water which releases its heat to the environment indirectly through cooling ponds and cooling towers. A third, but unconventional method, employs geothermal cooling, e.g. Yasukawa et al. [2] and Permchart and Tanatvanit [3]. Air cooling is not always effective in a desert environment, since the ambient temperatures often exceed the allowable condenser temperatures during sunshine hours; reaching 50C in some places. Water cooling using cooling ponds and towers consumes too much water in the form of evaporation; this should not be allowed in a desert environment where water is scarce. Geothermal cooling could be highly expensive for large capacity equipment, requiring long lengths of pipes and ground area; moreover it necessitates a low ground temperature to be effective, which is not always the case; for e.g. in KSA the annual average soil temperature is around 31C and could be considerably higher close to the surface in summer. The present paper presents a conceptual heat-sink design which is believed to be better suited to the desert climate. The design is first presented, followed by a brief description of the models employed to evaluate it, and by a demonstration of their application to a ZEH.
2 Proposed conceptual design

It is proposed here to cool the air-conditioning system condenser employing cooling-water circulating in a closed loop. For a given condenser temperature, Tcond, the maximum cooling water inlet temperature, Tcwi, and cooling water outlet temperature, Tcwo, are all fixed by controlling the water flow rate. Three alternate cooling operation modes are available; the mode employed depending on the ambient air temperature Ta, as follows: i) ii) Ta < Tcwi 5C: cooling water is totally air-cooled in a cross-flow heat exchanger, prior to returning to condenser. Ta > Tcwi 5C , but Ta < Tcwi: cooling water is first air-cooled to a temperature = Tcwo- (Tcwo Tcwi)(Tcwi-Ta) / 5C , after which it passes to a ground heat sink where it is further cooled to the desired Tcwi. Ta > Tcwi: cooling water is directed straight to the ground heat-sink at a temperature of Tcwo, flowing through a well insulated pipe.
iii)
Hence air cooling is invoked whenever it is feasible to do so, either partially or entirely, thus reducing the load on the ground heat-sink. The proposed sink is simply a dug-in, long, shallow, and narrow trench of rectangular cross-section, whose sides are first thermally insulated, and subsequently filled with the same excavated ground material (assumed sand). Buried at its centre are longitudinally laid finned ducts, through which the cooling water flows. The sides of the ground sink are thermally insulated to reduce heat losses. A removable cover (either hinged or sliding) is used to cover the sink surface
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during sunshine hours. The cover is made of 2.5 cms thick softwood, covered by thin commercial aluminium sheets on each side. When present, the cover is lifted approximately 0.01 m above the sink surface by peripheral wooden spacers. During sun shine hours, the ground sink is covered and therefore most (~80%) of the short wave solar radiation landing on the top surface is reflected back to the atmosphere. The relatively low emissivity (18%) of aluminium cladding of the cover bottom reduces the long wave radiation exchange between the cover bottom and sink surface. The air gap provides cheap and excellent insulation properties to reduce heat conduction from cover to ground. Since gap height is small, and the hotter surface is the top one, convective effects (all natural) are negligible. After sunset and until next day sunrise, the sink surface is exposed directly to the night sky, which in desert environments is considerably cooler than the ambient air. Thus appreciable net cooling of the sink occurs through long wave (infra red) radiation exchange with sky; convective cooling/heating may also sometimes be significant, depending on wind conditions and ambient temperatures. The latter are typically 10C or more lower than daytime temperatures in the desert. The naturally existing local soil achieves equilibrium temperatures which reflect the balance between day time heating, night time cooling and ground storage within the thermal penetration depth. Therefore the ground sink, by substantially reducing the daytime heat gain, while retaining the same night-time cooling, achieves lower equilibrium temperatures as revealed in coming sections. Thus the theory of its operation. Side insulation is introduced to eliminate heat seepage from surrounding uncovered ground.
3 Mathematical models
In previous work, Serag-Eldin [4] presented a mathematical model for predicting the cooling loads in a zero energy house. It comprised solar radiation models, coupled with time dependent heat conduction models and long wave atmospheric radiation models. The results employed measured environmental data reported by ASHRAE [5], for a hypothetical site in Dharan, KSA; a modern electronic expansion valve COP characteristic, Chinnaraj and Govindarajan [6] was adopted. In the present work, the same load-calculation model is used to calculate the cooling loads on June 21st, the supposedly hottest day of the year, and for the same site. Figure 1 reveals the cooling load distribution on that day. The latter is the input to the ground-sink model presented here. The heat-sink model includes a time dependent heat conduction model described by the following governing equation:
T ( cT ) (k ) x t x
(1)
Figure 1:
Cooling loads for ZEH on June 21st.
where x is the downward distance measured from the top surface of the cover, and t denotes time; whereas T, , k and c are the local values of the static temperature, solid density, coefficient of conductivity, and specific heat, respectively. Temperature gradients in axial and lateral directions are expected to be small and therefore neglected. The above equation is integrated numerically over control volumes bridging the domain bounded by the cover top surface and the ground-sink bottom surface, employing the control-volume method. In addition to the above terms, surface heat source terms, Sh (W/m2), are introduced at the following locations: i) cover top surface(when present):
4 S h (1 sw _ cv ) qsol ho (Ta Tcv _ top ) cv _ tp ( aTa4 Tcv _ top )
(2)
where sw-cv is the short wave reflectivity of the cover cladding, Tcv-top is the surface temperature of the cover top, cv-top is the long wave emissivity of cover top and a is the apparent emissivity of the atmosphere (Bliss [7] and ASHRAE [8]). a is defined as the ratio of the long wave atmospheric radiation on a horizontal surface per unit area to ( Ta4), and is only a function of the dew point temperature near ground; the latter is derived from instantaneous values of drybulb and wet bulb temperatures, as shown by Serag-Eldin [4] for cooling load calculations. qsol is the global solar radiation on a horizontal surface, and is calculated in same way as for load calculations. The convective heat transfer coefficient, ho is calculated from the following formula (Kreider et al. [9]):
ho 6.2(
V 4 0. 2 ) L
(3)
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where the characteristic length L is taken as channel width, and a wind speed, V= 3m/s is assumed. ii) cover bottom surface (when present):
Sh
4 4 (Tsk Tcv _ bot ) (1 / cv _ bot 1 / sk 1)
(4)
where the subscript sk refers to sink surface, and cv-bot refers to cover bottom emissivity. Forced convection is absent and free convection is ignored since gap thickness is small(0.01 m) and the hotter plate is the top one; however conduction heat transfer is retained across the air gap. iii) ground-sink surface: When cover is present Sh is equal but opposite in sign to that of equation (4). However, when cover is absent the source term becomes:
4 S h (1 sw _ sk ) q sol ho (Ta Tsk ) sk ( aTa4 Tsk )
(5)
where sw-sk refers to short-wave reflectivity of the sink surface, and subscript sk refers to sink surface properties. iv) duct plane: A source term is introduced at the control volume containing the cooling-water duct, representing the local heat transferred from cooling water to the sink per unit sink surface area, qL. The latter is calculated from:
qL
(Tcw, z T ) (1 / hi P x / kPeff )
(6)
where T denotes the temperature of the sand surrounding the cooling-water duct, Tcw,z is the cooling-water bulk temperature at considered downstream location z, P is the perimeter of the internal walls of duct, Peff is an effective perimeter (surface contact area per unit length) between cooling water and surrounding sand, whereas x represents the distance between the external surface of the duct and T node. It is expected that the actual duct will be composed of several smaller ducts of same cross-sectional area, each displaying long horizontal fins; possibly covering the entire sink breadth so that heat dissipated can be conducted as uniformly as possible to sink surface. In the present work, the geometric details of the duct and fins are not considered; it is merely assumed that Peff lies between an upper value equal to channel breadth, and a lower one equal to P, i.e. to case without fins. Unless otherwise stated, displayed results correspond to an intermediate value; however, effect of Peff on results is reported. The perimeter P is calculated for a single duct of 0.1 m breadth and 0.01 m height. The

temperature T is taken to be the mean of the calculated temperatures at the nodes immediately above and below the duct centreline. The internal duct heat transfer coefficient is calculated from the following empirical relation (Holman and White [10]):
hi d h 0.023 Re0.8 Pr 0.3 k
(7)
where dh is duct hydraulic mean diameter, Re denotes Reynolds numbers and Pr denotes Prandtls number; all properties pertaining to cooling water at Tcw,z. It is noticed that conductive resistance across duct walls is neglected as it is estimated to be much smaller than that of the surrounding soil if duct walls are thin and manufactured from aluminium. The cooling water temperature Tcw,z varies along the length of the pipe, z, according to the following relation:
dTcw,z qL cwc dz m
(8)
where m cw is the mass flow rate of the cooling water per unit channel width, and c is its specific heat. It is derived at any time step from the calculated total cooling loads QL according to :
cw m
QL c (Tcwo Tcwi )Wsk
(9)
where Wsk is the sink width; Wsk= 4 m for the demonstration case. The solution procedure is as follows: i) cooling loads are calculated using cooling load model. ii) corresponding m cw values are calculated from eqn. (9). heat conduction eqn. (1) is solved for first downstream location z, employing the Crank-Nicholson method, with Tcw,z set to temperature of cooling water upon entering heat-sink. Solution extends over all time steps covering entire day, assuming 24 hr periodic conditions, yielding internal solid temperatures. iv) local and instantaneous value of ql are derived from eqn. (6). v) Eqn. (8) is solved for the next downstream Tcw,z employing the second order accurate mid-point method. vi) steps iii) to v) are repeated for successive downstream sections, each step employing the exit Tcw,z temperature of the previous section. vii) solution yields required duct length when Tcw,z=Tcwi. iii)
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4 Ground-sink without loading

Figure 2 displays the computed sink temperature variation with time in absence of cooling-water flow, i.e. no load. It displays results for the top surface, middle surface (where the cooling-water duct passes) and the insulated bottom; the corresponding ambient temperature is added for comparison. It is noticed that the sink surface temperatures are considerably lower than ambient air temperature, and that the mid-plane and bottom plane temperatures are highly uniform. During the afternoon hours when cooling loads are near their peak, the ambient temperature is over 40C, whereas the mid-plane temperature is only 28C. The impact of removing the cover on the surface temperature is highly pronounced, which suggests that it may be advantageous to remove cover slightly before sunset and return it slightly after sunrise, solar radiation being weak during those periods.
Figure 2:
Daily variation of temperature at no load.
Figure 3 displays the corresponding temperature variation in the downward direction, measured from cover surface, at 6 hour intervals. The profile at midnight (0 hr) is the only one without a cover; it therefore displays the ambient temperature in the location of the cover. It is noticed that at the outer surface of cover the surface temperature can exceed 50C at solar noon, however those high temperatures are not transmitted inwards into the soil. The surface displays temperature fluctuations of the order of 7C, but those fluctuations are quickly diminished as we approach sink mid-plane, after which the temperature is almost uniform all the way to the bottom.
Figure 3:
Variation with depth at various hours.
5 Sink with heat dispersion

Figure 4 displays the distribution of heat dispersion per unit area along the duct axis at near inlet section (1m), and at downstream distances of 31m, 81m and 286m, respectively, the last section being close to outlet. As expected, ql decreases downstream since Tcw decreases and hence temperature difference between cooling water and surroundings decreases. It is noticed that when the cooling water first flows into the duct the sink is still cool and therefore the temperature difference is large causing rapid cooling, explaining the spike at inlet then. This rapid inlet cooling implies that the cooling water temperature will be considerably lower far downstream, causing the temperature difference to be small, thus explaining the lower ql at inlet.
Figure 4:
Hourly heat dispersion per m length.
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Figures 5 and 6 display the hourly variation of sink temperatures at near cooling-ware inlet and exit sections, respectively. It is noticed that the soil temperatures are higher near inlet because of the higher cooling water temperature at inlet. However, even at exit, the sink temperatures are still considerably higher than when there is no loading, Fig. 2. The mid-plane temperatures are lower than the bottom temperature prior to flow of coolingwater (~ 8 a.m.), but when the water starts flowing the mid-plane temperature increases gradually to values above bottom temperature, until water is cut off again at around 9 p.m. When mid-plane temperature is higher than bottom temperature, heat flows downwards, and vice versa, thus the region below the mid-plane acts a storage zone. The surface temperature is always lower than the mid-plane temperature at inlet, indicating a constant heat flow outwards to the surface.
Figure 5:
Hourly sink temperatures near inlet section.
Figure 6:
Hourly sink temperatures near exit section.

Figures 7 and 8 display the corresponding T- x distribution. A small peak appears at the mid-plane due to the local dispersion of heat by the cooling-water duct. The temperature profile in the bottom one-third of the sink is remarkably uniform, albeit being slightly higher at inlet than at exit section. It therefore could be that a shallower sink would have been adequate.
Figure 7:
Temperatures within sink at inlet.
Figure 8:
Temperatures within sink at exit.
Figure 9 displays the variation of the cooling water temperature along the centre-line, for three different values of Peff, representing a single duct without fins, one with average size horizontal fins, and one whose horizontal fins are so large that they may be assumed to spread the dissipated heat uniformly in the
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lateral horizontal direction. The average size is the one adopted for previous displays. The arrows point at the required lengths of duct required to cool water to the desired 35C; they range from near 130 m for full fins, up to near 280 m for average size fins, and as much as 550 m for no fins, the sink width being 4 m in all cases. It is clear that fins are necessary and that they should be designed to be highly effective in order to cut down ground sink size and costs.
Figure 9:
Cooling water temperature distribution.
The total daily condenser cooling load for the demonstration case is 708 kW.h/day; of these, approximately 320 kW.h/day are born by the ground heat-sink, the remainder being dissipated directly to environment.
6 Discussion and conclusion

The paper investigates the performance of a proposed ground heat sink when coupled with the performance of a solar driven air-conditioning system for a ZEH in an exceptionally hot desert environment. The results seem plausible and indicate that such a design is feasible, but requires considerable length of ducting and surface area. Thus it is only attractive were land is cheap and abundant, and where water is scarce and ambient temperatures are too high for direct air cooling; which is the case for most ZEH in remote desert sites. Moreover, the length of the required ducting depends strongly on the effectiveness of duct surface fins. Optimizing fin design however, is not done here as it requires more detailed analysis. The mathematical model assumes a 24 hour repetition of ambient conditions; since the load calculations are made for the hottest day of the year (employing a 5% design percentile value), they over predict the ground sink requirements. Under actual operating conditions, a cooler previous day coupled with the high

thermal capacity of the soil should lead to improve cooling and therefore shorter duct lengths. Through ignoring the relatively small thermal capacity of the cooling water flowing in the duct, the mathematical model achieves high computational efficiency, by allowing an initial value ordinary differential equation to be solved in the z direction for cooling water, and a separate partial differential equation to be solved in time and x-direction for the solid material.
Acknowledgement
This work was sponsored by KAUST under the IDBT project grant held by AUC.
References
[1] Serag-Eldin, M.A., Thermal design of a modern, air-conditioned, singlefloor, solar-powered desert house, in press, Int. J. of Sustainable Energy, 2011. [2] Yasukawa, K., Uchida, Y., Tenma, N, Taguchi, Y., Muraoka, H., Ishii, T., Suwanlert, J., Buapeng, S. and Ha, N., Groundwater Temperature Survey for Geothermal Heat Pump Application in Tropical Asia, Bulletin of the Geographical Survey of Japan, vol. 60(9/10), pp. 459-467, 2009. [3] Permchart, W. and Tanatvanit, S., Study on using ground as a heat sink for a 12,000 Btu/h modified air conditioner, World Academy of Science, Eng. and Technology, 51,pp. 15-18, 2009. [4] Serag-Eldin, M.A., Modelling the energy systems in a PV powered two floor desert ZEH, accepted for publication in proceedings of CMEM2011, New Forest, UK, May 31-June 2nd. [5] ASHRAE Fundamentals Handbook, 2009, American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc., USA. [6] Chinnaraj, C. and Govindarajan, P., Performance Analysis of Electronic Expansion Valve in 1 TR Window Air Conditioner using Various Refrigerants, I. J. of Eng. Sc. and Tech., Vol.2(9),2010, pp. 4020-4025. [7] Bliss, R.W., Atmospheric Radiation Near the Surface of the Ground: A Summary for Engineers, Solar Energy 59(3), pp. 103-120. [8] ASHRAE HVAC Applications Handbook, 2007, American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc., USA. [9] Kreider, J., Curtis, P. and Rabl, A. 2010, Heating and Cooling of Buildings: Design for Efficiency, McGraw-Hill Inc., New York, p. 47. [10] Holman, J.P. and White, P., Heat Transfer, 7th edition, McGraw-Hill, 1992.
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Innovative approaches to urban water management in developing countries

S. Beecham & R. Fallahzadeh
University of South Australia, Australia
Abstract
The expansion of our towns and our limited land resources have led to the need for multifunctional land use in densely populated cities like Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia and Adelaide, Australia. Recently in Kuala Lumpur, Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SuDS) have been being adopted as a component of integrated urban water management. However, even SuDS technologies still often require dedicating areas of land to a single land use such as water conservation, flood control or water quality treatment. This paper investigates how innovative approaches to urban water management can lead to multi-functional landuse where habitat connections, flood storage, water reuse and social amenity are all integrated in the same land corridors. This could potentially release flood fringe areas for development which in turn could provide the economic driver to achieve higher level outcomes such as enhancement of urban ecology. However, further research is needed to inform practice in this important area. Keywords: sustainable urban drainage systems (SuDS), multi-functional landuse, urban ecology, urban water management.
1 Introduction
In recent years most stormwater management regulations have been concerned primarily with reducing peak flows and volumes of runoff into the stormwater system. While this is still very important, little emphasis has been given to the quality of the water that is reaching the waterways. These waterways support sensitive ecosystems that can be easily impacted by increased stormwater pollution. It is important to ensure that future developments are implemented using an integrated urban water management approach. This can be achieved

through the integration of water quality controls, flood detention and water sensitive urban design (Collins et al. [1]). Equally important is the need to design smarter, more resilient and most of all adaptive water systems. Examples include permeable pavements with underlying storages, on which cars can be parked and vegetated stormwater systems that include below soil storage systems that enable the vegetation to be sustained during longer interevent dry periods. Both these systems achieve multifunctionality of landuse by providing flood control, stormwater treatment, habitat connectivity and public space amenity. In developing countries both sustainable water management and multifunctional landuse are being practised. In particular, Malaysia is an interesting country to study as it is rapidly urbanizing. Rainfall in Malaysia is typically characterised by very intense and short duration storm events, which makes urban water management very challenging. The regular traffic gridlocks that occur in Kuala Lumpur following rainfall deluges are a symptom of these issues. However, urban planners and engineers are looking for ways to both control and make better use of water in the ever expanding cities. This paper examines innovative stormwater management methods currently being in Malaysia and compares them with Australian design and practice.
2 Water Sensitive Urban Design

The term Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) was first referred to in various Australian publications exploring concepts and possible structural and nonstructural practices in relation to urban water resource management during the early 1990s. Parallel design philosophies, such as Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS), were also developing in Europe and the United States. SUDS is now generally referred to as SuDS to reflect the wider application of Sustainable Drainage Systems. In the USA and Japan, SuDS is known as Low Impact Urban Design (LIUD), or just Low Impact Development (LID). WSUD, LID and SuDS embrace the concept of integrated land and water management and in particular integrated urban water cycle management. This includes the harvesting and/or treatment of stormwater and wastewater to supplement (normally non-potable) water supplies. More generally SuDS focuses on the interaction between the urban built form and the natural water cycle. It may be regarded as an alternative to the traditional catch and convey approach to stormwater management. From this point in the paper the term SuDS will be used to represent WSUD and LID. SuDS embraces the concept of integrated land and water management, in particular integrated urban water cycle management. In terms of typical SuDS components (Beecham [2]) includes rainwater tanks, grassed swales, biofiltration swales, bioretention basins, sand filters, infiltration trenches and basins, vegetated filter strips, permeable pavements, wetlands and ponds. These components can be combined into very sophisticated systems (Dunphy et al. [3] and Kandasamy et al. [4]) that treat stormwater to almost drinking water standards.
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3 Permeable pavements
Pavements are ubiquitous in urban areas. However, for developers, industrial facilities, and local authorities addressing stormwater and associated waterquality guidelines and regulations, pavements stay very much at the forefront of planning issues. Pavements designed for use by vehicular traffic typically consist of a sub-grade, one or more overlying courses of compacted pavement material and a surface seal. An integral aspect of conventional pavement design involves preventing entry of water to the pavement via the seal to protect the integrity of the underlying base course, sub-base and sub-grade. Conversely a permeable pavement has quite different objectives and design requirements to conventional pavements. The pavement is designed to infiltrate stormwater through to the underlying layers. Water passes to the open graded single sized gravel sub-structure and is drained through to the sub-grade. The pavements therefore perform the dual functions of supporting traffic loads and of stormwater drainage. Pollutants within the stormwater also infiltrate, with the majority being trapped within the pavement layers. Permeable pavements may be designed to incorporate an underlying storage volume for: Water harvesting and reuse Flood attenuation Enhance water quality treatment. Permeable pavements present a unique opportunity to harvest and store urban stormwater that would otherwise contribute to overland runoff into the conventional stormwater pipe and channel network. With minimal surface infrastructure, permeable pavements provide a serviceable, hard standing area that facilitates water harvesting, treatment and reuse (Beecham [2]). There are several options for the design and construction of such a system. After infiltrating through the pavement surface, the stormwater can be stored in a submerged tank, or in proprietary plastic cell systems. It can also be stored in a matrix of base course aggregate contained within an impermeable membrane. This is shown in Figure 1. Researchers at the University of South Australia recently completed construction of a conceptual prototype facility, shown in Figures 2 to 4 features a pavement the size of a standard car space (in accordance with AS/NZS 2890.1) Storage is provided within a limestone base course aggregate material. There is also a window cut into the side to view the depth of the water in the reservoir. In constructing the pavement, a procedure similar to the construction of a standard pavement was followed. Excavations were undertaken according to plan, ensuring adequate water storage volume was available. Laboratory tests indicated that voids in the base course aggregate material were 40% of the overall sub-base volume. This initial testing suggested that the overall storage of this facility is approximately 3,600 litres. The excavation varied between 650 mm and 750 mm depth overall, sloping downward to a sump at one end, where a submersible pump was located.
Figure 1:
The pavement reuse concept.
Figure 2:
Pavement excavation.
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Figure 3:
Perforated pipe for retrieving harvested stormwater.
Figure 4:
The completed UniSA prototype facility.
A 0.75 mm polypropylene material was used to line the excavation. To access the stored water, a stormwater pipe was installed prior to filling. The pipe was perforated at sufficient intervals to allow the ingress of water, whilst preventing the ingress of aggregate stones to the submerged pump reservoir.

Following the placement for the storage access pipe, 14 tonnes of 20 mm dolomite aggregate was placed on top of the liner and compacted using a vibrating plate compactor. Permeable pavers are laid in a similar fashion to conventional concrete block paving units. The upmost layer of aggregate (the laying course) is screeded to a desired level and pavers are placed according to manufacturers instructions. The pavement itself is then compacted with a vibrating plate compactor. The installation of appropriately designed edge restraints completes the construction procedure. The stormwater harvested from this system is extracted using a small solar pump and is used to irrigate plants in an equivalent sized adjacent rainwater garden. The total installation cost of this system was AUD 3,100 (GBP 1820).
4 Sustainable urban drainage systems in Malaysia

An example of Malaysian best practice in integrated urban water management is the recent adoption of the principles of sustainable urban drainage systems (SuDS) into the upgrade design for the Humid Tropics Centre (HTC) in Kuala Lumpur. As shown in Figure 5, porous paving, rainwater tanks, green roofs, vegetated swales and bioretention basins are integrated into a space-constrained office complex. This has been designed as an exemplar case study of SuDS for Malaysian conditions.
Figure 5:
SuDS features at the HTC in Kuala Lumpur (drawing courtesy of both HTC and ZHL engineers).
In order to compare the Malaysian and Australian design approaches for SuDS, the case of permeable pavements is selected. The design shown in Figure 5 was conducted in accordance with the Malaysian Urban Stormwater Management Manual, known locally as MSMA [5]. The permeable pavement
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system shown in Figure 5 is 279.5 m2 in area and was designed for a two year average recurrence interval (return period) design rainfall event of duration 15 minutes and intensity 181.2 mm/h. This immediately demonstrates the very high rainfall intensities faced by designers in Malaysia. Indeed this design storm is very close to the 100 year average recurrence interval, 5 minute duration design storm for Adelaide Australia, which is 186 mm/h. The MSMA design process involves the following steps, with only the summary calculations shown for conciseness: Step 1: Determine the permissible site discharge (PSD). PSD = 7 L/s Step 2: Determine the site storage requirement (SSR). SSR = 7.4 m3 Step 3: Determine the required reservoir depth (d). d = 105.9 mm To compare this with Australian design practice, the PERMPAVE software (Beecham et al. [6]) was run for the same two year average recurrence interval event (15 minute duration) for Adelaide, Australia. This design storm has a much lower rainfall intensity at 35.6 mm/h. PERMPAVE is freely available from the Concrete and Masonry Association of Australia (www.cmaa.com.au). Figures 6 and 7 show screenshots from the program output.
Figure 6:
PERMPAVE computed inflow hydrograph.
For the Australian design the main limiting factor is the maximum infiltration rate through the pavers, rather than the depth of basecourse required to infiltrate and store the design storm runoff. A basecourse depth of 100 mm provides 11.2 m3 of storage when the voids ratio is 0.4. This is sufficient to cope with the
Figure 7:
PERMPAVE program outputs.
runoff volume from the 2 year event. However, because of the lower rainfall intensity, the peak inflow to the Adelaide system is 3.9 L/s compared to 13.9 L/s for the Malaysian design storm event. This means that high infiltrative capacities are required for pavement systems in Malaysia. It also means that partial clogging of permeable systems is likely to have more significant affects on system performance in Malaysia than in Australia. Pezzaniti et al. [7] showed that partially clogged systems in Adelaide can still continue performing adequately for over ten years with minimal maintenance. This is unlikely to be the case in Malaysia but further research would be required to accurately determine the differences. In Malaysia permeable pavements are not yet designed for harvesting and reuse of stormwater. However, the average annual rainfall in Malaysia is 2,500 mm and this results in high volumes of urban runoff. Therefore permeable pavements with significant underlying storage would provide both effective flood control and high security of supply for stormwater reuse.
5 Conclusions
This paper has examined how sustainable water management can be achieved using multifunctional urban landuses. Examples have been presented where flood control has achieved using innovative SuDS technologies in both Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia and Adelaide, Australia. The design approaches used in both countries have been compared and the emerging use of permeable pavements for water harvesting and reuse has been discussed. However, this paper has also clearly identified that more research is needed to inform practice in the areas of water quality treatment, flood control and water harvesting and reuse. One of the most important considerations in stormwater
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management is provision of sufficient water storage. If the development of SuDS in Australia can be criticised, it would have to be in the way in which inadequate attention has been paid to the incorporation of sufficient storage volumes Developing countries such as Malaysia can learn from these experiences (Beecham [8]).
Acknowledgements
The support of the Australian Research Council for funding under grant DP0877707 is gratefully acknowledged, as is the ongoing support provided by Alan Pearson and the Concrete and Masonry Association of Australia (CMAA). Our deep gratitude is also extended to A/Prof Lariyah Sidek of UNITEN, Putrajaya and to Zul Mohd Roseli, Director of ZHL Engineers Sdn. Bhd., Malaysia for their considerable assistance in comparing Malaysian and Australian design techniques for SuDS technologies.
References
[1] Collins, A., Morison, P. & Beecham, S., Deemed to comply stormwater management requirements for Parramatta City Council. Proc of the Stormwater Industry Association Annual NSW and Queensland Conference, Gold Coast: Australia, 2008. [2] Beecham, S., Water sensitive urban design (Chapter 23). Adelaide: Water of a City, Daniels, C. B., Wakefield Press, ISBN: 9781862548619, 2010. [3] Dunphy, A., Beecham, S., Vigneswaran, S., Ngo, H.H., McLaughlan, R. & Collins, A., Development of a confined water sensitive urban design (SuDS) system using engineered soils. Water Science and Technology, IWA, 55(4), pp. 211218, 2007. [4] Kandasamy, J., Beecham, S. and Dunphy, J., Effectiveness of stormwater sand filters in water sensitive urban design. Journal of Water Management, Institution of Civil Engineers, UK, 161(2), pp. 55-64, 2008. [5] Department of Irrigation and Drainage, Malaysian Urban Stormwater Management Manual (MSMA), Jalan Sultan Salahuddin, Kuala Lumpur, DID 2009. [6] Beecham, S., Pezzaniti, D., Myers, B., Shackel, B. & Pearson, A., Experience in the application of permeable interlocking concrete block paving in Australia. Proc. of the 9th International Conf. on Concrete Block Paving, Buenos Aires: Argentina, 2009. [7] Pezzaniti, D., Beecham, S. and Kandasamy, J., A laboratory and field investigation into the effective life of permeable pavements. Journal of Water Management, Institution of Civil Engineers UK, 162(3), pp. 211-220, 2009. [8] Beecham, S., Planning for multifunctional urban landuse using sustainable water management. 4th International Conference on the Built Environment in Developing Countries, Penang: Malaysia, 2010.
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A study of the impacts of existing artificial optical radiation at student housing sites
P. Hebert
Oklahoma State University, USA
Abstract
Visible optical radiation in the housing sector accounts for 17% of the total energy consumed in the USA. Recommendations encourage the use of sustainable lighting to reduce energy consumption, but all stakeholders have not complied. Some existing installations provide high light levels, use inefficient lighting, and waste resources. Over-illuminated sites create light pollution and light trespass, which may upset circadian rhythms and damage health. Some housing sites utilize short-lived light sources, which must be replaced often, sending solid waste to landfills. The invisible effects of artificial optical radiation, such as those from ultraviolet light (UV), may have adverse environmental and health impacts. In this study, researchers explored the quantitative aspects of artificial optical radiation found at five university student housing sites. They integrated technical literature and lighting industry recommendations with previous studies and new field measurements to raise awareness of environmental impacts and to ultimately encourage informed choices of sustainable lighting at student housing sites. The researchers led undergraduate students in night-time field studies to measure and document existing lighting conditions. They utilized various hand-held devices to measure and analyze visible light, UV light, and sky quality. Artificial optical radiation from various sources was in evidence at all sites. A review of the published standards revealed some of sites artificial light levels exceeded recommendations. Light pollution and light trespass were found. Sky quality was fair to poor. The environmental impact of UV radiation in the current study was found to be negligible. However, other measurable impacts produced by nonsustainable lighting sources, including wasted light, light pollution, and light trespass, are of concern to the environment and to housing stakeholders. Keywords: environmental impact, housing, lighting, pollution, sustainability.
1 Introduction
1.1 Background Visible optical radiation used in the housing sector accounts for 17% of the total energy consumed in the United States of America [1]. Adherence to recommended illumination levels can support safety and security and reduce energy consumption when efficient light sources are used, but not all stakeholders have complied. Some sites may utilize non-sustainable and inefficient lighting that wastes resources. Over-illuminated sites create light pollution and light trespass, which may upset circadian rhythms and damage health. Some sites may utilize short-lived light sources, which must be replaced often, sending solid waste to landfills. The invisible effects of artificial optical radiation, such as those from ultraviolet (UV) light may have adverse environmental and health impacts. 1.2 Purpose In this study, researchers explored quantitative aspects of artificial (electric) optical radiation at five university student housing sites on two campuses in the mid-western USA as part of a larger federally funded project. Students participated with faculty on research teams in a national competition designed to provide sustainability education. The researchers integrated technical literature and industry recommendations with previous studies and new field measurements, in order to raise awareness and ultimately to encourage informed choices of sustainable lighting at student housing sites.
2 Literature review
Optical radiation is complex and influences physiological and behavioral responses. Although optical radiation is often associated with positive outcomes, some negative aspects are also associated. Light pollution is defined as the scattering of electric light into the atmosphere, usually caused by luminous flux above the horizontal [2]. Light trespass is defined as light that strays from its intended purpose, causing visual annoyance [2]. Artificial light from unshielded and poorly located sources may enter buildings through fenestration, disturb slumber, disrupt circadian rhythms, or otherwise negatively influence health. Light fixtures that do not produce any light above the horizontal are known as cutoff fixtures [3]. The Illuminating Engineering Society of North America (IESNA) an organization that publishes lighting-related research, as well as recommend levels of optical radiation for particular visual tasks recently emphasized the profound effect of light on human health and the importance of studying dark/light cycles [4]. Although the exact light levels required to impact human circadian rhythms are as yet unknown, several studies involving light and circadian rhythm were found [58]. Boyce [9] and Figueiro et al. [10], among others, have called for the continued study of light and circadian rhythms, while
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Figueiro et al. [10] expressed concern about the possible link between night-time exposure to artificial light and increased cancer risk. Although it has long been understood that artificial optical radiation has both health benefits and risks [4], humans have increasingly illuminated their world [11]. Some have identified aesthetic, safety, and security issues as reasons for illumination. However, others perceive artificial lighting as a disruption of the natural dark/light cycle and a waste of energy. Rich and Longcore [12] have written about the negative environmental effects of lighting, including those on various species. In 2009, the American Medical Association (AMA) released a mandate supporting sustainable lighting, waste reduction, and light pollution reduction [13]. Additional researchers have studied non-visible light and its health implications [1419]. Other lighting studies focused on consumers in retail settings [2022]. Consumers intentions were explored by Kalifatis et al. in a conceptual model of consumers intentions to adopt environmentally friendly products [23]. Few scientific studies have been published regarding sustainable lighting and energy consumption implications in the USA [2426]. However, research precedence was found for the utilization of questionnaires to assess the awareness, knowledge, experience, or intentions of participants regarding sustainable lighting [25]. Also, several studies were found regarding the utilization of energy efficient (higher efficacy and longer lived) lighting sources, Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs) or Compact Fluorescent Lighting (CFLs), outside of the USA [2731]. Consumers attitudes towards LEDs, CFLs and incandescent were examined by Stall-Meadows and Hebert [24] in empirical field research set in museums; this study also utilized student researchers. Other lighting field studies were found [20, 22, 32]. Programs such as EnergySTAR [33] encourage energy-saving lighting, and others have gathered topical market research [34, 35]. CEE cited inadequate consumer education as a barrier to the adoption of CFLs [1]. No previous studies quantifying optical radiation at housing sites or involving students in housing field study data collection were found. The current exploratory study utilized concepts from Sherri Arnsteins classic theoretical work, A Ladder of Citizen Participation [36]. Arnstein encouraged citizen stakeholders to facilitate decision making processes made by societies, including those relative to planning and design. She devised an eight-rung ladder model, divided into three groups of rungs, ascending toward more participatory practices. The lowest group she identified as nonparticipation, which included manipulation and therapy. The middle group she labelled tokenism, which included informing, consultation, and placation. The top group she called citizen power, which included partnership, delegated power, and the top rung, citizen control. By involving student stakeholders, the current study endeavours to fill a gap in the existing literature regarding the impacts of nonsustainable artificial optical radiation. According to Attardi, to create a future of growth and sustainability should be our message Educating the general public on lighting is a very good idea [37]. He proposed a model to explain consumer behavior relative to sustainable lighting. He claimed that awareness of new lighting technologies led to acceptance, which led to preference [37]. In the

current exploratory study, both Arnsteins and Attardis theoretical works were applied by engaging students in an investigation of the effects of optical radiation at university housing sites.
3 Methodology
In the current study, three research hypotheses were proposed and tested: H1: Artificial optical radiation at housing sites will exceed recommendations. H2: Non-sustainable light sources will be identified at student housing sites. H3: Artificial optical radiation will be found on housing units fenestration. The researchers selected a convenience sample of five student housing sites located at two college campuses in the mid-western USA. During three months of the research period, October 4 to November 1, 2010, sixty-six undergraduate university students, four graduate students, and three faculty members participated in one or more of five site visits. The weather and moon phases for each of the sites during the study period was obtained from official sources. Using IESNA nomenclature, each site was classified as having either bright surroundings or dark surroundings [38], based on the ambient visual illumination proximal to each housing site. The current researchers also classified the sites predominant vertical surfaces reflectance values using IESNA terms: light, medium light, medium dark, or dark [38]. To determine reflectances, the researchers compared building surfaces to paint chips and corresponding light reflectance values (LRVs) published in paint manufacturers fan decks (Imperial Chemical Industries Paints and PPG Pittsburgh Paints). Through visual inspection, the researchers determined which paint chips most closely matched the field sites exterior buildings surfaces. The corresponding LRVs were noted. The two digits of the LRV corresponded to the percentage of light reflected. A surface with an LRV of 75 reflected 75% of the light falling upon it. For the purposes of this study, light surfaces were those with an LRV of 75-99, medium light surfaces were 50-74, medium dark surfaces were 25-49, and dark surfaces were 24 or less. Additionally, the research team utilized spectral distribution identification cards with diffraction gratings to distinguish observed light sources as incandescent, fluorescent, mercury, metal halide, sodium, or neon. At each site, the researchers field-selected ground floor housing units with windows. The researchers examined the sties existing lighting fixtures, noted their overall styles, and determined if they were cutoff or non-cutoff through visual inspection. They used masking tape to prepare temporary measurement grids on horizontal surfaces (on-grade landscape and paving adjacent to housing units) and vertical surfaces (housing units exterior walls, and windows), fig 1. This facilitated the measurement of optical radiation at regular intervals. Beginning at 19:30 hours on five separate evenings, researchers examined and measured the artificial optical radiation falling on vertical and horizontal planes. This information was recorded on field data sheets, plans, and sketches. The research team measured visible light in footcandles (fc) and lux (lx) with a GTE Sylvania DS-2000 meter at selected housing units. At these identical
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Figure 1:
Measurement grid.
locations, UV radiation was also measured in microwatts/cm with a Mannix UV-340 meter, which measured UVA and UVB in the 290 nm to 390 nm range. Overall sky quality measurements were taken at each site, determined in magnitudes per square arcsecond, using a Unihedron Sky Quality meter, SQM-L. A higher sky quality reading indicated a lower level of light pollution. For example, a reading of 21 would indicate a very dark sky, while a reading of 16 would indicate a light polluted sky [39]. Researchers also documented sites and field research activities with digital cameras. From November, 2010, through March, 2011, researchers transferred data from field sheets, coded the data, compared field measurements to IESNA and IDA recommendations, and analyzed findings.
4 Results
The majority of the sites, Sites A, B, C, and D, experienced clear skies during field study visits. However, one of the sites, Site E, was mostly cloudy. The temperatures ranged from a low of 45F (7C) at Site E to a high of 73F (23C) at Site C. None of the sites experienced any precipitation during the field visits. The moon phases varied from Waning Crescent to Full Moon. Sky quality measurements across student housing sites ranged from a minimum of 10.8 mags/arcsecond2 at Site D to a maximum of 16.3 mags/arcsecond2 at Site E. Therefore, sky quality was categorized as poor to fair, with evidence of light pollution found at all five sites. Exterior lighting fixtures were categorized by the researchers through visual inspection, fig 2. Only Sites C and E utilized cutoff fixtures exclusively, as shown in Table 1. A total of 149 spectral distribution identifications were made by the researchers. The light source most often identified across all sites was fluorescent (n=50, 33.56%). The second most identified was incandescent (n=39, 26.17%). The third most identified was metal halide (n=26, 17.45%). The least identified light sources included: sodium (n=15, 10.07%), mercury (n=12, 7.94%) and neon (n=7, 4.70%), as shown in Tables 2, 3, and 4.
Figure 2: Table 1:
Site A B C D E Sky Quality Reading (mags/arcsecond2) Min 15.4 15.6 16.1 10.8 16.1 Max 17.5 16.1 18.0 10.8 16.3 Mean 16.3 15.7 16.4 10.8 16.2
Non-cutoff fixtures create uplight effect. Housing site conditions and light fixtures.
Weather Cutoff No No Yes No Yes Cloud Cover Clear Clear Clear Clear Mostly Cloudy Moon Phase Precipitation Temp F(C) none none none none none 65 (18) 69 (21) 73 (23) 55 (13) 45 (7) Waning Crescent 14% Waning Crescent 6% Waning Crescent 2% Waning Gibbous 87% Full 100%
Table 2:
Incandescent # % A 15 38.46 B 2 5.13 C 19 48.72 D 2 5.13 E 1 2.56 Total 39 100.00 Site Fluorescent # % 20 40.00 8 16.00 21 42.00 0 0.00 1 2.00 50 100.00
Lighting source identification.

Mercury Metal Halide # % # % 4 33.33 2 7.69 0 0.00 4 15.38 8 66.67 19 73.08 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 1 3.85 12 100.00 26 100.00 Sodium # % 12 80.00 2 13.33 1 6.67 0 0.00 0 0.00 15 100.00 # 6 1 0 0 0 7 Neon % 85.71 14.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00
Table 3: Lighting sources per site (All fixture types).

Site A B C D E Total # 59 17 68 2 3 149 % 39.60 11.41 45.64 1.34 2.01 100.00
Table 4: Lighting sources per type (All sites).

Fixture Type Incandescent Fluorescent Mercury Metal Halide Sodium Neon Total # 39 50 12 26 15 7 149 % 26.17 33.56 8.05 17.45 10.07 4.70 100.00
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Artificial optical radiation was in evidence at all sites and ranged from a minimum of 0.0 horizontal fc (0.0 lx) to a maximum of 2.6 horizontal fc (27.99 lx); and a minimum of 0.1 vertical fc (1.1 lx) to a maximum of 3.3 vertical fc (35.52 lx). Some measureable light levels were found on or near windows of housing units, including 1.3 fc (14.0 lx) at Site E. The vast majority of the housing sites were classified as having dark surroundings (Sites A, C, D and E). Only Site B was considered to have bright surroundings. The sites exterior building surfaces reflectance values were examined and sites A, B, C, D and E were classified as dark with corresponding LRVs of 15, 16, 17, 16 and 19, as shown in Table 5. For floodlighting buildings and monuments with dark surroundings and dark surfaces, the IESNA recommends an average of 5 vertical fc (50 lx). For bright surroundings the corresponding value is: 15 fc (150 lx) [38]. All sites corresponding means fell well below these recommendations, fig 3. For security, the recommended average vertical illumination on building exteriors is 0.5 to 2 fc (5 to 20 lx) [38]. The vertical mean measurements on the walls and windows of four of the sites fell within this range: A (0.9 fc, 9.7 lx) B (1.3 fc, 13.9 lx), C (1.1 fc, 11.8 lx) and E (1.2 fc, 19.4 lx). Site Ds mean (0.1 fc, 1.1 lx) was below recommendations, fig 4. For safety, IESNA publishes recommendations for hazards requiring visual detection which are classified as either slight or high [38]. Due to the lack of critical obstacles observed at student housing sites, researchers classified all sites as slight. Within that category, IESNA also distinguishes between low or high normal activity levels. Based on observed activity, the researchers classified all sites as low. For slight hazards requiring visual detection at low levels of normal activity IESNA recommends 0.5 fc (5.4 lx). The mean horizontal measurements at Sites A (0.8 fc, 8.6 lx), B (2.1 fc, 22.6 lx), C (1.9 fc, 20.5 lx), and E (1.7 fc, 18.6 lx) exceeded these recommendations, while the mean at site D (0.4 fc, 4.3 lux) fell below it, fig 5. UV radiation was also measured at regular intervals at the sites. All sites UV measurements were negligible, 0 microwatts/cm. Table 5:
Site A B C D E
Optical radiation levels, surroundings, and reflectances.
Observations fc (lx) Vertical Reflectance Surroundings Horizontal Vertical Min Max Mean Min Max Mean LRV Category 0.5 (5.4) 1.3 (14.0) 0.8 (8.6) 0.7 (7.5) 1.1 (11.8) 0.9 (9.7) Dark 15 Dark 1.9 (20.5) 2.3 (24.8) 2.1 (22.6) 0.9 (9.7) 2.0 (21.5) 1.3 (13.9) Bright 16 Dark 1.8 (19.4) 2.1 (22.6) 1.9 (20.5) 0.1 (1.1) 2.2 (23.7) 1.1 (11.8) Dark 17 Dark 0.0 (0.0) 2.2 (23.7) 0.4 (4.3) 0.1 (1.1) 0.3 (11.8) 0.1 (1.1) Dark 16 Dark 1.0 (10.8) 2.6 (27.99) 1.7 (18.6) 0.1 (1.1) 3.3 (35.52) 1.2 (19.4) Dark 19 Dark
5 Limitations
On the spectral distribution identification cards, the fluorescent category did not allow for the differentiation of CFLs from other types of fluorescent lighting. A

Recommended Level
Max Min Mean
Max Min Mean
Recommended Level
Max Recommended Level Min Mean A B C D E
Figure 3: Security vertical light levels per site.
Figure 4: Safety Figure 5: Floodlighting horizontal light vertical light levels per site. levels per site.
category for LEDs was not included on the cards. The study sites were not randomly selected and were limited in number and geographic area.
6 Conclusion and discussion

This study effectively engaged students in research efforts to measure the existing artificial optical radiation at student housing sites. It was concluded that this research successfully reached the participatory citizen power tier of the theoretical model described by Arnsteins ladder of citizen participation. The three hypotheses were partially or fully supported. Hypothesis 1: Artificial optical radiation levels at housing sites will exceed recommended levels was partially accepted. Sky quality was measured as fair to poor and is anticipated to obscure views of starry nights at the sites, while unshielded fixtures throw wasted light into the sky. Moon phases may have affected overall sky quality readings, especially for Sites D and E, which experienced 87% visible moon face and 100% visible moon face, respectively. The average visible light levels measured at some sites exceeded that recommended by the IESNA for safety. However, at some student housing sites, stakeholders may have created higher light levels in the cause of pedestrian safety. A non-cutoff acorn style fixture may have been an attempt to reinforce a nostalgic image. Universities should consider all relevant factors, including threats to circadian rhythms, when developing plans for artificial optical radiation at student housing sites. Hypothesis 2: Non-sustainable light sources will be identified at student housing sites was accepted. Across student housing sites in the current study, non-sustainable incandescent lights were the second most utilized. These nonsustainable sources have low efficacy, are short-lived, and create the need for many bulbs to be relegated to landfills at their end-of-life. Fluorescents were identified as the source most often found at the sites. These have higher efficacy and longer life than incandescents. UV light emissions are a by-product of
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fluorescent light sources. However, the environmental impact of UV light at these sites was found to be negligible. This may be due to the lenses fitted to the fluorescents, which were apparently effective in shielding UV radiation. Vigilant maintenance of the lenses will be important for continued UV mitigation. Hypothesis 3: Artificial optical radiation will be found on housing units fenestration was accepted. The existing exterior lighting fixtures produced significant levels of light trespass onto the windows of occupied student rooms in the current study. These may disrupt circadian rhythms or cause other health problems for occupants. These are of concern, especially when one considers the vulnerable residents of these sites, college students. Stakeholders are encouraged to make informed choices regarding the selection, installation, and maintenance of sustainable lighting at student housing sites.
Acknowledgements
Although the research described in this article has been funded wholly or in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency through grant/cooperative agreement SU834732 to Oklahoma State University, it has not been subjected to the Agencys required peer and policy review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred. The author acknowledges the data collection contributions of the OSU students enrolled in DHM 4573 Environmental Sustainability Issues for Interior Designers, Sylvia Chaney, Dr. Gina Peek, and Abimola Asojo and her students.
References
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[8] Yamadera, H., Ito, T., Suzuki, H., Asayama, K., Ito, R., & Endo, S., Effects of bright light on cognitive and sleep-wake (circadian) rhythm disturbances in Alzheimer-type dementia. Psychiatry & Clinical Neurosciences, 54(3), pp. 352-353, 2000. [9] Boyce, P.R., Lemmings, light, and health. Leukos: The Journal of the Illuminating Engineering Society, 2(3), pp. 24-31, 2006. [10] Figueiro, M.G., Rea, M.S., & Bullough, J.D., Does architectural lighting contribute to breast cancer? Journal of Carcinogenesis, 5(20), 2006. [11] GLOBE at Night. Globe at night: Less of our light for more starlight, http://www.globeatnight.org/index.html [12] Rich, C., & Longcore, T., (eds.). Ecological Consequences of Artificial Night Lighting, Island Press: Washington DC, 2005. [13] American Medical Association, Resolution 516(A-09): Advocating and support for light pollution control efforts and glare reduction for both public safety and energy savings, http://www.ama-assn.org/amal/pub/upload /mm/475/refcome.pdf [14] Swerdlow, A.J., English, J.S.C., MacKie, R.M., ODoherty, C.J., Hunter, J.A.A., Clark, J., & Hole, D.J., Fluorescent lights, ultraviolet lamps, and risk of cutaneous melanoma. British Medical Journal, 297, pp. 647-649, 1988, September 10. [15] Scientific Committee on Emerging and Newly-Identified Health Risks (SCENIHR). Scientific opinion on light sensitivity, http://ec.europa.eu/ health/ph_risk/committees/04_scenihr/docs/scenihr_o_019.pdf [16] Ham, W.T., Ocular hazards of light sources: Review of current knowledge. Journal of Occupational Medicine, 25(2), pp. 101-103, 1983, February. [17] Kitchel, E. Light and low vision, http://cclvi.org/contributions/light_and _low_vision.htm [18] Kitchel, E. The effects of fluorescent light on the ocular health of persons with pre-existing eye pathologies, http://www.naasln.org/documents/ articles/kitchel_fluorescent_light.pdf [19] U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. EPA SunWise: Health Effects of UV Radiation, http://www.epa.gov/sunwise/uvandhealth2.html [20] Freyssinier, J., Frering, D., Taylor, J., Narendran, N., & Rizzio, P., Reducing lighting energy use in retail display windows. Sixth International Conference on Solid State Lighting Proceedings of SPIE 6337, 66371L, 2006. [21] Summers, T., Hebert, P., Shedding some light on store atmospherics: Influence of illumination on consumer behavior. Journal of Business Research, 54(2), pp. 145-150, 2001. [22] Areni, C., & Kim, D., The influence of in-store lighting on consumers examination of merchandise in a wine store. International Journal of Research Marketing, 11(2), pp. 117-125, 1994. [23] Kalafatis, S., Pollard, M., East, R., & Tsogas, M., Green marketing and Ajzens theory of planned behaviour: A cross-market examination. The Journal of Consumer Marketing, 16(5), pp. 441-460, 1999.
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[24] Stall-Meadows, C., & Hebert, P.R., The sustainable consumer: An in-situ study of residential lighting alternatives as influenced by in-field education. International Journal of Consumer Studies, 35, pp. 164-170, 2011. [25] Rasmussen, T., Goepfrich, V., & Horkitz, K. Drivers of CFL purchase behavior and satisfaction: What makes a consumer buy and keep buying? http://www.cee1.org/eval/db_pdf/758.pdf [26] Chilcote, A., Guin, A., & Kirby, S., Residential energy conservation: Program design for today's consumers. Proceedings of the 2007 Annual Conference of the Housing Education and Research Association. [27] Bhusal, P., Zahnd, A., Eloholma, M., & Halonen, L., Replacing fuel based lighting with light emitting diodes in developing countries: Energy and lighting in rural Nepali homes. Leukos, 3(4), pp. 277-291, 2007, April. [28] Kumar, A., Jain, S., & Bansal, N., Disseminating energy-efficient technologies: A case study of compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) in India. Energy Policy, 31(3), pp.259-272, 2003, February. [29] Kjaerulf, F., Transforming the CFL market by consumer campaigns. Right Light, 2, pp. 145147, 1997. [30] Peon, R., Doluweera, G., Platonova, I., Irvine-Halliday, D., & IrvineHalliday, G., Solid state lighting for the developing world: The only solution. Optics and Photonics 2005, Proceedings of SPIE, 5941, pp. 109123, 2005. [31] Reynolds, T., DeSisto, T., Murray, B., & Kolodinsky, J., Promoting energy efficiency in small island states: Overcoming barriers to the adoption of compact fluorescent lighting in Saint Lucia. International Journal of Consumer Studies, 31(5), pp. 460-467, 2007. [32] Hebert, P., Approach-avoidance behavior of consumers as influenced by existing and supplemental merchandise display lighting [Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation]. Louisiana State University: Baton Rouge, LA, 1997. [33] Atiles, J., Wysocki, J. & Tremblay, K., Energy Star: Introducing a new cooperative extension partnership. Journal of the Housing Education and Research Association, 30(1), pp. 59-68, 2003. [34] Consortium for Energy Efficiency (CEE). CEEs residential lighting initiative, http://www.ceel.org/resid/rs-lt/rs-lt_init_descr.pdf [35] Consortium for Energy Efficiency (CEE). CEEs residential lighting initiative, http://www.ceel.org/resid/rs-lt-main.php3 [36] Arnstein, S., A ladder of citizen participation. Journal of the American Institute of Planning, 35(4), pp. 216-224, 1969. [37] Attardi, W., Educating the general public on lighting a good idea? Paper disseminated at the Illuminating Engineering Society of North America Centennial Conference, New York, NY, p. 3, 2006. [38] Rea, M., (ed), The IESNA lighting handbook (9th Edition). Illuminating Engineering Society of North America: New York, 2000. [39] Walker, C., Bueter, C, Hurst, A., White, V. & Patten, K. GLOBE at Night: using Sky Quality Meters to measure sky brightness, http://www.noao.edu/outreach/press/pr08/files/GaN_SQM.pdf
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An overview of safety effects on pedestrians at modern roundabouts

A. Gran
Department of Civil, Environmental and Aerospace Engineering, Palermo University, Italy
Abstract
Pedestrians are important users of the transportation system, but most guidelines have given them little importance in the geometric design of roads and intersections. In these cases it can be difficult for vehicles and pedestrians to share the road safely, particularly at intersections where vehicle-pedestrian conflicts (and the risk of vehiclepedestrian crashes) can be a frequently recurring situation even with low pedestrian volume. In a sustainable safety vision road system planning and design must include engineering choices that help to improve the sharing of road space between vehicles and pedestrians, as well as for other vulnerable users. It is known that modern roundabouts are safer than other intersection forms both for effects on speeds and for effects on conflicts between road users; several road authorities, indeed, have foreseen to convert specific types of intersections into roundabouts. Summarizing international experience with roundabouts and pedestrians, the paper provides a review of the existing literature dealing with pedestrian safety and accessibility issues at roundabouts. First, safety aspects at modern roundabouts are presented, followed by a brief explanation of the effects of roundabouts on pedestrian safety documented in the scientific literature. At last, this research provides an overview of the current state of practice and implications in the roundabout design to maximize their potential with regard to safety pedestrians. Keywords: road safety, pedestrian safety, roundabout.
1 Introduction
Modern roundabouts are circular intersection in which vehicles circulate anticlockwise the circulatory roadway installed around a central island and have

the right-of-way. Entering vehicles, in turn, yield at the edge of the circulating roadway until a gap in the circulating traffic flow becomes available. At approaches entering and exiting lanes are separated by (raised or painted) splitter islands. The use of raised splitter islands, as well as roadway alignment, deflect vehicles into a proper entry path avoiding entry tangential to the circular roadway and forcing drivers to reduce speeds as they proceed into and through the intersection. This ensures consistency between speeds of vehicles circulating and vehicles entering the roundabouts, as well as lower speed differentials with other road users. Moreover, the use of splitter islands also provide a refuge for pedestrians which allows them to cross the street in two stages [1]. Figure 1 shows geometric design elements of a modern roundabout.
Figure 1:
Geometric design elements for roundabouts [roundabouts: An informational guide, publication number: FHWA-RD-00-068 /2000].
Roundabouts can be separated into basic categories by size of the inscribed circle diameter (Di): large roundabouts, conventional roundabouts, miniroundabouts. Some fundamental design elements for each roundabout category, as referred in [2], are summarized in Table 1. A modern roundabout, properly designed and installed at appropriate locations, has the potential to generate several advantages over other types of atgrade intersections in safety, capacity, environmental, economic and esthetic considerations; nevertheless, there are conditions under which roundabouts are not suitable either for new installations or for replacing an existing intersection with a roundabout [3, 4]. Many studies have proven that one of the main benefits of roundabout installations is the improvement in intersection safety performance than other intersection forms. Roundabouts slow all vehicles allowing drivers more time to react to potential conflicts (also helping to reduce crash severity) and provide refuges for pedestrians to cross a traffic stream at a time. The physical guidance
263
and the separation of the various movements by the splitter islands and the central island reduce the number of conflict points. Roundabouts create 75 per cent fewer opportunities for vehicle to vehicle conflicts, having only 8 vehicle to vehicle conflict points and 8 vehicle to pedestrian conflict points whereas a typical four-way intersection has a total of 32 vehicle to vehicle conflict points and 24 vehicle to pedestrian conflict points. Also none of these conflict points at roundabouts are at right angles; at traditional intersections, right angle crashes, indeed, are the most severe crashes that can produce an injury or fatality. Table 1: Roundabout category Di [m] Large: Di > 50 Conventional 40 Di 50 Compact 25 Di < 40 Mini 14 Di < 25 Design elements for roundabouts [2]. Circular roadway one-lane entry [m] 6 6 7 7-8 two-lane entry [m] 9 9 8,5-9 8,5-9 Entry arms one-lane entry [m] 3,5 3,5 3,5 3,5 two-lane Exit [m] entry [m] 6 6 6 6 4,5 4,5 4,5 4
Central island treatments can be: i) partially traversable to help trucks at mini-roundabouts with an inscribed diameter between 18 m and 25 m; ii) fully traversable at mini-roundabouts with an outer diameter between 14 - 18 m. Compact roundabouts are characterized by a central island with non-surmountable kerbs.
Roundabouts have been found to lower number and severity of crashes as compared to traditional forms of intersection design and traffic control due to the reduction of vehicular conflict points (as well as lower speeds) and of overall crash frequencies for a wide range of urban, suburban, and rural settings [513]. Experience has shown that entry geometry plays an important role in determining most probable crash types: an entry tangential to the circulating vehicle path can be the cause of entry-circulating collisions because these drivers will be less inclined to yield; conversely, an entry almost perpendicular to the circulating vehicle path can generate rear-end and loss of control collisions because abrupt braking may be necessary. An intermediate situation for entry geometry can be most appropriate depending on antagonist traffic volumes and site characteristics. It must be said that crash reductions are most pronounced for motor vehicle, less pronounced for pedestrians (3040 per cent reduction), bicyclists (10 per cent) and motorcyclists depending on the study and design treatments [6, 10, 14, 15]; moreover, the safety benefit is greater for small- and medium-capacity roundabouts than for large or multilane roundabouts [5, 6, 16]. Evaluation studies based on crash data, traffic data and geometric data also showed variation in crash rates at roundabouts, or particular groups of roundabouts, mainly driven by the traffic exposure [17]. The results of statistical crash data analysis in different countries where the roundabouts are in operation

by time, particularized for individual crash categories, are reported in several studies to which it refers. Only for illustrative purposes, Figure 2 shows a comparison of disaggregated crash data in the U.S.A. and UK databases [5, 16].
Figure 2:
Disaggregated crash data in UK and USA [5, 16].
A better understanding of effects on the safety by the various geometric design elements and traffic exposure can assist the designer in optimizing the safety of all users. According to [5, 8, 1620], Table 2 summarizes measures with a significant relationship with crash frequency at roundabouts for some crash categories: single vehicle (sv); crash between an entering and a circulating Table 2:
Measure AADT Pedestrian volumes Number of approaching lanes Number of circulating lanes Radius of vehicle path entry deflection Percentage of motorcycles Angle to next approach Sight distance Weaving length between splitter islands Distance to first sight of roundabout Length of vehicle path 85th percentile speeds Reduction in 85th percentile speed Posted speed limit * *
Measures affecting road safety at roundabouts.

sv e/c Crash category re p exit/c
** **
**
an increase in this measure increases crash frequency an increase in this measure decreases crash frequency the measure had a significant relationship with crash frequency but the relationship was not specified.
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vehicle (e/c); rear-end crash on an exiting and a circulating particular, the entry deflection probability of a crash and
the approach (re); pedestrian (p); crash between vehicle at multilane roundabouts (exit/c). In forces all vehicles to slow down, reducing the the severity of a crash (see Figure 3).
Figure 3:
Factors affecting safety at roundabouts.
Several efforts have been taken to evaluate crash reductions at roundabouts compared to other intersection types. A review of international experience and evaluation studies on safety performances at existing roundabouts is shown in Table 3. Understanding the relationships between roundabout design features and crash frequency through the use of safety models can facilitate design of roundabouts by quantifying the safety implications of design decisions and by determining the effectiveness of roundabouts as a treatment for intersecting roadways. A comprehensive review of safety models is included in NCHRP Report 572 on roundabouts in the United States (on line from 2007). The same report presents an overview of safety prediction models developed for intersection-level and approach-level analyses. The intersection level models were developed for total and injury collisions; the approach-level models were developed for all severities combined for several collision types: entering/circulating, exiting/circulating, and approaching. These models are suitable for eventual inclusion in the second edition of Highway Safety Manual crash prediction procedures [13]. Starting from these considerations on safety issues at roundabouts, the paper summarizes the international experiences with roundabouts and pedestrians trying to focus on effects of roundabouts on pedestrian safety. At last, this research provides an overview of the current state of practice and implications documented in the scientific literature in the roundabout design to maximize their potential with regard to safety for pedestrians.

Table 3:
Author and country Sample size
Summary of safety studies at roundabouts.

Type of study Findings Crash reduction after roundabout installed*: 74% in the casualty crash rate 32% in property damage only 68% in pedestrian casualty crashes per year. *control before roundabout: give way to the right - stop - give way 3-arm intersections: 0,03 crash rate at roundabouts vs 0,05 crash rate at signalized intersections; 4-arm intersections: 0,05 crash rate at roundabouts vs 0,1 crash rate at signalized intersections; 1 pedestrian crash at roundabout vs 20% of injury crashes at signalized intersections; 36 % of two-wheeled vehicles at roundabouts vs 23 % at signalized intersections crash reduction at roundabouts: 73% in all pedestrian injury crashes 89 % for pedestrian fatality; 63% for moped injuries; 30% for cycle injuries. a 75% decrease in average vehicle pedestrian crashes for 25 intersections converted from stop signs or traffic signals to roundabouts. less than 25% of serious injury crashes or fatalities at roundabouts; 38 fatal or serious type injuries for every 100 crashes at roundabouts vs 55 injury or fatal crashes for every 100 crashes at controlled intersections; crash frequencies 4 times higher at signalized intersections than roundabouts. 90% reduction in fatal crashes; 76% reduction in injury crashes; 30-40% reduction in pedestrian crashes; 10% in bicycle crashes.
Austroads, 1993, Australia [21]
Before-and-after 73
Giaever, 1992, Norway [22]
59
Comparison with 124 signalized intersections
Schoon and Van Minnen, 1993, the Netherlands [23]
181
Before-and-after without control (mostly singlelane roundabouts) Before-and-after (with data on traffic volume before and after) Comparisons with rural intersections traditionally controlled and roundabouts with similar traffic flows before-after study (conversion of 23 intersections from stop sign and traffic signal control to roundabouts) meta-analysis of studies (28 studies reported outside the United States to obtain estimates of effect on road safety of converting intersections to roundabouts)
Brilon W. et al., 1993, Germany [24]
25
Guichet, 1997, France [25]
12.000
Persaud B. et al., 2001, USA. [10]
23
Elvik, R., 2003 [24]
a 30% to 50% reduction in the number of injury accidents; a 50% to 70% reduction in the number of fatal accidents; the roundabout effect on injury accidents is greater in 4-leg intersections than in 3leg intersections; the roundabout effect is greater in intersections previously controlled by yield signs than in intersections previously controlled by traffic signals.
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2 Effects of roundabouts on pedestrian safety

Several surveys and studies undertaken to explain the reduction of vehicular crashes at roundabouts highlighted that safety benefits at roundabouts are mainly due to slow speeds and to fewer potential vehicle-pedestrian conflict points compared to other intersection forms. Pedestrian injury statistics supported by documentary evidence indicate a favourable trend regarding pedestrian safety, but no statistically significant conclusions can be drawn [10]. On the contrary, as already anticipated in the previous paragraph, European safety studies provide significant results regarding pedestrian safety. In Sweden a 2000 study of vehicle-pedestrian crash data from 72 roundabouts (as compared with expected values for comparable intersections with signals, controlling for pedestrian volumes and traffic flow) showed that single-lane roundabouts are very safe for pedestrian compared to conventional or signal controlled intersections (about a 78% reduction in injuries) and that multi-lane roundabouts are about as safe as other intersections [26]. A synthesis of roundabout advantages and disadvantages for pedestrians are shown in Table 4. Table 4: Roundabout advantages and disadvantages for pedestrians [27, 28]. Advantages
Traffic speeds are generally lower than other intersections, meaning less chance of injury in a collision. Drivers are more likely to see pedestrians in the crosswalk. Crossing distances are usually shorter due to splitter islands, allowing one to focus on one direction of traffic at a time. Perceived risks are higher than real risks due to the absence of an exchange of the right-of-way priority by the traffic signals.
Disadvantages
Entering traffic does not necessarily stop causing hesitation by pedestrians in the crosswalk. Anxiety in pedestrians who are not confident judging gaps in traffic Crossing locations and set backs from the yield line often raise travel distances for pedestrians. The accommodation of visually impaired pedestrians is a challenge where roundabouts are not yet widely used.
It should be added that roundabouts can be perceived as unsafe by pedestrians [29], but, at roundabouts crash risks from left-turning vehicles crossing the intersection during the same phase as the pedestrian crossing fail [30]; moreover, less wait time accomplishes pedestrian crossing movement than at conventional intersections with many protected phases [27]. The reduced traffic speed, the simplification of conflicts, the minimization of the conflict area between pedestrians and vehicles are three reasons generally cited to maximize safety for pedestrians at roundabouts [29]. Certain design features, as well as different engineering modifications to the built environment, were found to be important to reduce risks of pedestrian injuries and fatalities [31]. Although it is undeniable the effect of the geometric design of the intersection on safety performance, as well as on operations, there is no consensus internationally about the specific effect of individual geometric elements on safety and operational performances; nevertheless, it is generally shared the need to combine certain basic principles within the roundabout design [32].

Starting on the above considerations on safety issues related to pedestrians at roundabouts, in the next paragraph considerations on practices and implications in the roundabout design to maximize their potential with regard to safety pedestrians are provided.
3 Geometric design implications to maximize pedestrians safety at roundabouts

Traffic engineering design can apply now a wide array of measures developed to assist pedestrians and to minimize the risk and severity of vehicle-pedestrian crashes. Researches and studies examined under this literature review on the specific topic suggest that sharing of road space between pedestrians and vehicles can be difficult when road geometric design and built environment assign low priority to pedestrians [33]. A pedestrian casualty study in Australia also reports several design recommendations for pedestrian safety [34], such as ensuring convenient vehicle speed reduction before pedestrian crossings, positioning pedestrian crossings at a distance from the stop line equal to one-totwo car lengths so drivers can encounter separately pedestrian and vehicle conflicts, assuring visibility for pedestrians to see vehicles from all crossing points and for drivers to see all crossing points from each approach, using physical measures to discourage improper pedestrian movements and direct pedestrian to crosswalks. According to Retting et al. [33], traffic engineering countermeasures can be designed both to manage vehicle speeds and to separate pedestrians and vehicles by time and space, as well as to increase the visibility of pedestrians. A summary of current design features designed to promote pedestrian safety at modern roundabouts are reported in Table 5. Although current design practices for pedestrians, treatments and methodology for selecting treatments at roundabouts generally appear to be appropriate, the use of measures specifically designed to separate pedestrians and vehicles by time is often site dependent [33]. Recent and ongoing researches suggest that these measures should be evaluated principally in terms of effects on crashes. Nevertheless, many studies on safety effectiveness of road engineering measures result limited by a methodological point of view due to failure to account for regression to the mean resulting in overestimation of the effects of an intervention when high-crash locations are selected to be treated [33]. Some observational road safety studies consider pedestrianmotor vehicle conflicts to value roadway countermeasures, because conflict studies can also provide information about crash causes. Traffic conflicts on the basis of empirical evidence was examined and validated by Hauer and Garder [38]. In any case, given the very large number of roads and the meagre resources available for road engineering countermeasures, these with the greatest potential for crash reduction should have priority. Further research is also needed to develop appropriate treatments to accommodate pedestrians with vision disabilities at modern roundabouts [1].
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Table 5:
Measure
Current design practices for pedestrians at roundabouts.

Design element entry and exit Another purpose is to maximize visibility of the central island: entry curve radii is recommended to be 10-15 m [25]; exit curve radii is recommended to be 10-14 m [20]; high-speed tangential exit are avoided. installation of traffic signal Pedestrian activated or regular signals with exclusive pedestrian phases can be installed at least 20 m away from the circle and signal phasing has to be set so that vehicles do not back into the roundabout. splitter island it acts as a pedestrian refuge island; it is recommended to be 1.6 to 2 5 m wide [35] or 3.0 m [36]. pedestrian crossings provision of pedestrian high-visibility or zebra-striped crossings are recommended when pedestrian flows reach a certain minimum or depending on the vehicle/pedestrian conflict [35, 36]. location of pedestrian crossing generally recommended is about 5 to 6 m back from the stop line, because pedestrian crossings close to the circle may reduce roundabout capacity (potentially longer waiting times at the entrance) and further away may increase walking distances exposing pedestrians to higher speeds [29]; when entries are flared pedestrian crossing before the flaring [37].
Managing speed
Separating pedestrians and vehicle by time Separating pedestrians and vehicle by space
Increasing pedestrian visibility
4 Conclusions
In a sustainable safety vision road system planning and design must include engineering choices that help to improve the sharing of road space between vehicles and pedestrians, as well as other vulnerable users. In this view modern roundabouts represent a very safe solution compared with other types of intersections both for effects on speeds and for effects on conflicts between road users. Starting from a brief examination of the international experience on safety at modern roundabouts, as documented in the scientific literature, the paper focuses on the effects of roundabouts on pedestrian safety. This research also provides an overview of the current state of practice and implications in the roundabout design to maximize the potential with regard to safety pedestrians, highlighting that in the case of many traffic engineering measures more definitive research is needed to establish their effects on pedestrianvehicle crash risks.
References
[1] Wadhwa, Lal C., Roundabouts and pedestrians with visual disabilities: How Can We Make Them Safer? 82nd TRB Annual Meeting, 12-16 January 2003, Washington DC, USA. [2] Infrastructure and Transport Ministry. Geometric and functional standards for the construction of intersections. Decree April 19, 2006.

[3] Isaacs., B. and Barrett J.P. Use Of Roundabouts in an Urban Setting. 2nd Urban Street Symposium (Anaheim, California, USA). July 28-30, 2003. [4] Lenters, M. Roundabout planning and design for efficiency and safety case study. 2003 Annual Conference of the Transportation Association of Canada, St. Johns, Newfoundland & Labrador, September 2003, pp. 1-21. [5] Maycock, G. and Hall, R.D. Accidents at 4-Arm Roundabouts, Laboratory Report LR1120, Transportation and Research Laboratory, Crawthorne, Berkshire, U.K. 1984. [6] Alphand, F., Noelle U., and Guichet B., Roundabouts and Road Safety. State of the Art in France, Intersections without Traffic Signals II, SpringerVerlag, Werner Brilon (Ed.). pp. 107-125, 1991. [7] Safety of Roundabouts in Urban and Suburban Areas. Centre dEtude des Transports Urbains, Paris, 1992. [8] Arndt, O.K., Relationship between roundabout geometry and accident rates. Final Report. Infrastructure design. Transport Technology Division. Department of Main Roads, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, 1998. [9] Flannery, A., and Datta, T. K., Modern Roundabouts and Traffic Crash Experience in the United States. Transportation Research Record, vol. 1553, pp. 103-109,1996. [10] Persaud, B.N., Retting, R.A., Garder, P.E., and Lord D., Safety effect of roundabout conversions in the United States: empirical Bayes observational before-after study. Transportation Research Record, vol. 1751, pp. 1-8, 2001. [11] De Brabander B, Nuyts E, and Vereeck L., Road safety effects of roundabouts in Flanders. Journal of Safety Research, vol. 36, issue 3, pp.289-96, 2005. [12] Isebrands H., Crash analysis of roundabouts and high-speed rural intersections. Transportation Research Record, vol. 2096, pp. 1-7, 2009. [13] Roundabouts: An Informational Guide Second Edition. NCHRP Report 672, 2010 National Academy of Sciences, Transportation Research Board Washington, D.C. 2010, USA. [14] Schoon, C. C. and van J. Minnen, Accidents on Roundabouts: II. Second Study into the Road Hazard Presented by Roundabouts, Particularly with Regard to Cyclists and Moped Riders. R-93-16. SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research in the Netherlands, 1993. [15] Brown, M., TRL State of the Art Review: The Design of Roundabouts. London, HMSO, 1995. [16] Rodegerdts, L., Blogg, M., Wemple, E., Myers, E., Kyte, M., Dixon, M., List, G., Flannery, A., Troutbeck, R., Brilon, W., Wu, N., Persaud, B., Lyon, C., Harkey, D. and Carter. D., NCHRP Report 572: Roundabouts in the United States. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., USA, 2007. [17] Russell, E. R., and Mandavilli, S., Can modern roundabouts safely accommodate all users? ITE 2004 Annual Meeting, Lake Buena Vista, Florida, August 2004.
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[18] Daniels S, Brijs T, Nuyts E, Wets G., Explaining variation in safety performance of roundabouts. Accident Analysis and Prevention, vol. 42, issue 2, pp. 393-402, 2010. [19] Brde, U., and J. Larsson, What Roundabout Design Provides the Highest Possible Safety? Nordic Road and Transport Research, No. 2. Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, 2000. [20] Kleine Kreisverkehre: Empfehlungen zum Einsatz und zur Gestaltung, Bausteine No. 16. Ministerium fur Stadtentwicklung und Verkehr des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen, 1993. [21] Roundabouts-Guide to Traffic Engineering and Practice, Austroads, Sydney, Australia, 1993. [22] Giaever, T., Application, Design and Safety of Roundabout in Norway, The Foundation for Scientific and Industrial Research at the Norwegian Institute of Technology, Norway. Actes du Seminaire Giratoires 92, Nantes, France, October, 1992. [23] Schoon, C. C. and van Minnen, J., The Safety of Roundabouts in the Netherlands, SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research, Summary Article on Report R-93-16, Leidschendam, The Netherlands, 1993. [24] Brilon, W. B. Stuwe and O. Drews vas (1993 Report in German) summarized by R. Elvik, Effects on Road Safety of Converting Intersections to Roundabouts, A Review of Evidence From Non-U.S. Studies, Transportation Research Record, Vol. 1847, Transportation Research Board, 2003, pp. 1-10. [25] Guichet, B., Roundabouts in France: Development, Safety, Design and Capacity, Proceedings of Third International Symposium on Intersections Without Traffic Signals, Portland, Oregon, July 1997, pp. 100-105. [26] Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI), What Roundabout Design Provides the Highest Possible Safety, Nordic Road and Transport Research, vol. 2, pp. 17-21, 2000. [27] Furtado G., Accomodating vulnerable road users in roundabout design. 2004 Annual conference of the transportation of Canada, Quebec City, Quebec, Canada. [28] Weber P., Roundabout safety experience. Paper prepared for presentation at the Road Safety / Geometric Design Session of the 2007 Annual Conference of the Transportation Association of Canada, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. (Chapter 5 of the Synthesis of North American Roundabout Practice). [29] Jacquemart, G. et al., Modern Roundabout Practice in the United States. NCHRP Synthesis 264. Transportation Research Board National academy press, Washington, D.C. USA, 1998. [30] Habib, P.A., Pedestrian Safety: The Hazards of Left-Turning Vehicles. ITE Journal, Institute of Transportation Engineers, April 1980, pp. 33-37. [31] Conception des Carrefours a sens Giratoire Implantes en Milieu Urbain, Centre dEtudes des Transports Urbains (CETUR), Ministere de lEquipement, du Logement, de lAmenagement du Territoire et des Transports, 1988.

[32] Rodegerdts, L. A., State-of-the-Art in U.S. Roundabout Practice. 2005 Annual Meeting of Institute of Transportation Engineering, Melbourne, Australia, 2005. [33] Retting, R. A., Ferguson, S. A. and McCartt, A. T., A review of evidencebased traffic engineering measures designed to reduce pedestrianmotor vehicle crashes. American Journal of Public Health. Vol. 93, n.9, pp. 1456-1463, 2003. [34] Tumber, C., Review of Pedestrian Safety at Roundabouts, Vic Roads, Road Safety Department, Melbourne, AU, 1997. [35] Brilon, W., Sicherheit von Kreisverkehrsplatzen, unpublished paper (1996). [36] Ourston & Doctors, Roundabout Design Guidelines, California, 1995, pp. 50. [37] Geometric Design of Roundabouts, Design Manual for Roads and Bridges, Vol. 6, Section 2, Part 3, TD 16/93, United Kingdom, 1993. [38] Hauer E. and Garder P., Research into the validity of the traffic conflicts technique. Accid Anal Prev. 1986; vol. 18, pp. 471481.
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Re-design for change: environmental and financial assessment of a dynamic renovation approach for residential buildings
A. Paduart1, W. Debacker2, N. De Temmerman3, W. P. De Wilde1 & H. Hendrickx3
1
Department of Mechanics of Materials and Construction, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium VITO, Flemish Institute for Technological Research, Mol, Belgium Department of Architectural Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium
Abstract
Existing residential buildings and their daily use are unmistakably influencing the rational consumption of our worldwide natural resources. This observation has led to global renovation regulations, mainly focusing on the reduction of energy consumption caused by occupation. However, equally important are the future environmental and financial impacts of current renovation interventions. Indeed, when minimising the heating energy demand, the main future energy savings will shift towards the life cycle of building materials. Since building conditions change over time, buildings have to be re-designed today to enable future transformation without taking part in further environmental degradation. Therefore, renovation measures cannot introduce the same static building materialisation as the initial building design, which did not anticipate on future unpredictable need for upgrade and change which we are facing today. This paper evaluates the environmental and financial benefits and drawbacks of redesign introducing reuse strategies, considering not only initial but also future life cycle impacts. An assessment was made for a typical building layer, comparing conventional renovation with design for disassembly (DfD) re-design. Keywords: renovation, environmental and financial assessment, 4D design, reuse.
1 Introduction
1.1 The burden of existing residential buildings The world of today is facing the environmental impacts of our short building vision: lack of integrated life cycle design in conventional building design has contributed to the current environmental degradation. A large amount of the current European building stock was designed and constructed in a time where fossil fuels were cheap and abundant and global warming was unheard of [1, 2]. As a result, fossil fuels have been used very inefficiently in constructions predating the oil-crisis, explaining their excessive energy and material consumption in the present-day context. Renovation practice of today therefore focuses on reduction of energy use during occupation of residential buildings. The main objective is to create lower energy consuming buildings, by enhancing the insulation level and introducing the most energy efficient heating, cooling and ventilation systems available today. Despite the fact that these interventions have high significance in the current context, equal importance should be given to the long-term effects of renovation interventions. When the energy demand of buildings during the operation phase is minimised, any future savings on resource demand will shift towards the remaining life cycle phases of the building. Adaptation, maintenance and end-of-life processes during the life cycle of buildings, relating to inherent building materials and their design, then become of major importance [3, 4]. Therefore, the scope of the current renovation practice needs to be enlarged integrating a long term-vision that minimises the use of natural resources and the building waste stream not only today, but also in the future. 1.2 Alternative re-design for change In this framework it is crucial to assess both initial and future environmental and financial life cycle impacts, when comparing current renovation to alternative renovation initially taking the remaining life cycle of buildings into account. A dynamic re-design approach of existing residential buildings is selected as alternative to current renovation practice. To reduce the future environmental and financial impact of buildings, the dynamic re-design approach supports future need for change, upgrade and reversibility by using 4-Dimensional design principles [5]. Four-dimensional design strategies reduce the life cycle impact of buildings by incorporating reuse strategies applied to three design levels building material, building component and building level [6]. The aim of these reuse strategies is to reduce as well material and energy demand during use, as to minimise the building waste fractions at the end of life of buildings. Therefore, Design for Deconstruction and Design for Disassembly (DfD) are introduced for re-design of buildings at building component and material level.
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1.3 Need for an integrated evaluation methodology Building solutions designed according to dynamic re-design have another life cycle behavior in financial and environmental terms than conventional design. Deconstruction and disassembly strategies clearly imply atypical assembly techniques and material choices compared with conventional design. The initial financial cost and environmental impact for such building solutions are higher, but life cycle assessment can quantify the environmental and financial benefits and drawbacks of reuse potential and deconstruction advantages compared to demolition, over an entire building life span. The evaluation methodology in this paper departs from an integrated life cycle approach, assessing the environmental impact of building renovation and its financial consequences, from raw material extraction until waste treatment at the end of life of the building. The following paragraphs describe the different parts of the integrated assessment approach, i.e. environmental impact assessment using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and financial cost evaluation using Life Cycle Costing (LCC). Hereafter, the assessment of a refurbished building layer is illustrated with a variable need for alteration over the building life cycle, i.e. the internal wall partitioning, using the integrated assessment approach.
2 An integrated environmental and financial evaluation

2.1 Building life cycle phases The aim is to evaluate the environmental impacts and the financial cost over the whole life cycle of the dwelling, meaning that not only the initial situation is evaluated, but also the maintenance phase and at the end- of- life phase of the building and its components. The environmental assessment is expressed in impacts, the financial assessment expressed in costs. The phases summarised in Figure 1 are considered in the financial and environmental life cycle assessment: - Production phase: production of the building materials, including transport; - Construction phase: transport to the building site, assembly of the (re)construction;
Figure 1:
Representation of life cycle inputs/outputs of buildings.

Use phase: maintenance, repair and replacement of building products, including transport; End of life phase: removal (separation, reuse, deconstruction, demolition) and end-of-life treatment of building materials (recycling, incineration, and landfill), including transport.
2.2 Integrated life cycle assessment To assess (re)designed buildings according to deconstruction and disassembly, alternative reuse and deconstruction loops are inserted in the environmental and financial life cycle evaluation. The life cycle Financial costs (F) and Environmental impacts (E), occurring during the initial phase, use phase and EoL phase of buildings, are generalised as impacts (I) in the next expression: with:
LCI: i, j, , t : a, b, c : I in: I use: Ieol: life cycle impact year (from i=0 until i=t) building material, building component and building level initial impact (year=0) summed impacts during the use phase summed impacts at the end-of-life phase (year=t)
c a Iin
Iuse
Ieol
(1)
As represented in Figure 1, the periodic interventions during the use phase can be classified under material, component and building level interventions, so Expression (1) becomes: I0,PROD I0,ASS I 0,TRconstr I 0,REMOV I MT I 0,TReol I REPL I TR
(2)
I0,DISP with: I 0,PROD: I MT: I 0,DISP: I 0,ASS: I REPL: I 0,REMOV: I 0,TR site : I TR: I 0,TR eol:
material production total maintenance final disposal of materials (recycling, landfill, incineration) assembly labour total replacement labour removal labour (demolition or deconstruction costs) transport from production site to construction site total transport during the building use phase transport from demolition/deconstruction site to sorting/disposal site
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For all replacements of building elements, due to both technical failure of components as well as alterations of the entire building layer, the second term in Equation (2) becomes:
MT
REPL
TR
I0,DISP
I0,PROD I0,TRconstr
I0,REMOV
I0,ASS
(3)
I0,TReol
In this equation, I 0,REMOV is equal to: - I 0,DEMOL, if the component is non-Dfd designed; - I 0,DECONSTR , if the component is Dfd designed. For non-DfD designed building components, the replacement of a building element will affect the adjacent building elements, and therefore, equation (3) is also being applied for the adjacent elements for individual building element replacement. In the case of DfD solutions, surrounding building elements can be disassembled to replace the failing building element, and can hereafter be reassembled in place. Therefore, for these building elements, the second term in Equation (2) becomes:
MT REPL TR
I0,DISASS
I0,RE-ASS
(4)
with:
F 0,DISASS: F 0,RE-ASS: F 0, DEMOL: F 0,DECONSTR: disassembly of the building materials re-assembly of the building materials demolition of the building components deconstruction of the building components
These expressions can be used for both financial and environmental assessment. Specific implementation of both is discussed in the following paragraph. 2.3 Financial cost evaluation 2.3.1 Discounting Because currency is subject to inflation and has the ability to earn interest, it is worth more today than currency tomorrow. Discounting determines how much less currency is worth in the future, and is essential to make the financial evaluation over a total life cycle.

The discount rate d defined as the factor reflecting the time value of money that is used to convert cash flows occurring at different times to a common time [7], in this study is assumed to be equal to the interest rate for bank loans (2%). 2.3.2 Present value The present value of future costs can be defined as the amount of money that would need to be saved today, at a (nominal) interest rate r, in order to have the money available to meet the future cost (Ct) at the time when it is predicted to occur (after t periods)[7]. By discounting all occurring costs at different times during the building life span become comparable and can be aggregated into a total present value. 2.4 Environmental impact assessment 2.4.1 LCA method Although weighting the environmental effects to calculate a single score is not advised by ISO 14040 [8], it enables to make a comprehensible comparison between alternatives. However, the single score result should not be considered without assessing the unweighted normalised scores. The weighting factors are based on eco-indicator 99, a transparent impact assessment method that expresses the environmental impact in three environmental effects: human health, quality of ecosystems and depletion of resources [9], expressed in Points (Pt). 2.4.2 The construction detail: the key for reuse and adaptation The number of replacements of building elements depends on the global building service life or the service life of the building layer in which the building element is assembled. For example, when wall partitioning needs spatial reconfiguration, the entire conventional wall needs to be disposed and replaced. In this case, replacements of the building elements depend on the service life of the wall layer, and not of the global building service life. Building elements with reuse design and flexible connections however, can be deconstructed and re-assembled in the new wall assembly using the same building elements. This means that the replacement in this case is depending on the global service life of the building. The connection type is identified as a key parameter for replacements [10]. A fixed connection causes redundant waste production when replacing a specific building element, since adjacent elements will have to be removed as well. Contrary, flexible connections allow non-destructive replacements of only the failing building elements. Therefore, the flexibility of the connection for each building element in this study is determined for each building assembly, and is taken into account in the calculations of the replacements. An assessment is made for wall assemblies over a number of building scenarios possibly taking place during the life cycle of a building. The amount and the category of required repairs, replacements and alterations are defined for each building level. The environmental and financial impacts of these alterations are summed with the initial impact and the end-of-life impact for a determined period of life cycle analysis.
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3 Dynamic versus static building layers

3.1 Building layer: internal wall partitioning In older apartment buildings the internal wall partitioning is often subject to renovation due to increasing comfort standards of dwellings. The small-format interior layouts and non adaptable typologies of the apartments are no longer suitable for current users. Thermal and acoustic performance also needs upgrading according to the current living standards. However, it is dependent on the design approach if the environmental and financial load of the interventions is reasonable, today and in the future. The first compared assembly is designed as a finished static product that needs demolition when adaptation needs emerge. The latter is designed as an assembly of separated functions that can be detached and re-adjusted, relocated or reused. 3.1.1 Functional unit A functional unit is used to make an objective comparison between wall assemblies. Minimum criteria are set up for the internal wall building layer relating to thermal and acoustic performance and fire resistance and finishing. The functional unit is used for both environmental impact assessment and financial cost analysis, expressed in 1m. 3.1.2 Scenarios Buildings are complex artefacts with long service lives compared to other products, explaining the high uncertainty about their service lives. Therefore building scenarios are formulated with varying service lives at all building levels, represented in Table 1. The values for the estimated service life of the components (ESLC) are calculated using the Factor method outlined in ISO 15686-1 [11] using a minimum, typical and maximum life expectancy distribution to consider the most extreme values. Table 1:
Scenarios reference scenario short building service life long building service life short building layer service life long building layer service life short component service life long component service life
Service life scenarios of the building.

Building 60y 30y 90y Building Layer 30y ESLC typical
15y 60y minimum maximum
3.2 Environmental and financial life cycle assessment 3.2.1 Wall types Three types of internal walls are analysed: plastered masonry walls (clay bricks, sand lime bricks, cellular concrete blocks and expanded clay blocks), dry walls
masonry walls Figure 2: dry walls
DfD walls Wall types for assessment.
with gypsum plasterboard (metal studs and wooden frame) and Dfd designed walls (steel frame, aluminium frame and wooden frame). DfD designed walls aim to extend the service life of the used building elements. This means that for the DfD wall assembly the material choice is crucial to enable these initial intents. The chosen materials are resistant to multiple deconstruction and reconfiguration, have a long technical service life to make reuse viable and enable reversible connections. Steel, aluminium or wooden prefabricated frames are used with wood-based boarding that can be erected as semi-finished assemblies, and can be deconstructed to base elements with capacity for reuse or transformation to other building products. Special attention is given to the detailing using tolerances and rubber strips to ensure satisfactory thermal and acoustic performance. 3.3 Results 3.3.1 Service life scenario The summarised results for two service lives scenarios of the internal wall are represented in Figures 3 and 4. On the left of the graphs, the results are shown for wall service lives varying between 15 and 60 years for alternative wall solutions. On the right, the extreme scenarios for the estimated service life the components are shown. Both the financial (LCF) and environmental (LCE) life cycle assessment graphs indicate comparable results for the differences between conventional walls and DfD designed walls. The results reveal that although DfD solutions for internal walls have a higher financial and environmental initial impact than conventional solutions, the life cycle impact during the remaining life can be beneficial or disadvantageous depending on the considered building scenario. The elevated initial impact can be explained by the higher initial impact of specifically chosen building materials and building techniques needed for DfD construction. The service life of both the building layer (in this case, the internal partitioning) and of the components has been identified as a key parameter for the financial and environmental viability of DfD design.

1600 1400 LCF (/m Wall) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
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Metal Stud Structure Wooden Structure Clay Bricks Sand lime Bricks Cellular Concrete Blocks Expanded clay blocks Dfd Wall: Steel Dfd Wall: Wood Dfd Wall: Aluminium
Figure 3:
30 25 LCE (Pt/m Wall) 20 15 10 5 0
Life cycle financial assessment of wall types.
Metal Stud Structure Wooden Structure Clay Bricks Sand lime Bricks Cellular Concrete Blocks Expanded clay blocks Dfd Wall: Steel Dfd Wall: Wood Dfd Wall: Aluminium
Figure 4:
Life cycle environmental assessment of wall types.
First, the rate of internal change must be relatively high, in this case at least 15 years, for its reuse potential and its benefits of deconstruction, to weigh up against the initial higher impact of Dfd walls. Due to the multiple alterations of the wall partitioning, the reference cases must face up against major impacts of each replacement, including entire demolition of the wall and new extraction of raw materials for the production of a new similar wall. In this case, the DfD

solutions score significantly better than the reference case, that is, between 15 20% for the financial and the environmental life cycle assessment. 3.3.2 Quality of the components and work execution level On the other hand, specific conditions such as the quality of the component and the work execution level of the components can drastically decrease their expected technical service life. Attempts of reuse strategies to extend the materials useful life then cannot be fully taken advantage of. This explains why in the short component scenario the DfD designed walls have a higher financial and environmental impact than the reference walls. On the contrary, when a maximised technical service life of components can be achieved, the reuse benefits can be more developed and thus, the DfD solutions score better. To make Design for Deconstruction successful attention should be given to the correct choice of materials including a long technical service life, to prolong the usability and thus make them more profitable. The good quality of the execution on the construction site is of crucial importance. 3.3.3 Labour cost Another identified barrier for dynamic re-design is the extensive amount of labour involved. Since labour cost contributes for over 50% in the total life cycle cost (see Figure 5), this is an important factor for this analysis. The dimensions (amount, size and weight) of wall components are an important factor in the total labour cost. Since the use of multiple small components implies longer assembly times, the labour cost will increase. This explains why the masonry walls, with many small components, have a higher labour cost than the dry walls, as represented in Figure 5.
700 600 removal cost eol cost transport cost labour cost material cost
/m Wall
500 400 300 200 100 0
Figure 5:
Financial life cycle costs of 3 wall types.
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On the other hand, design for disassembly and deconstruction demands more complex connections, which likewise increases the assembly cost compared to dry walls, as seen in Figure 5. The labour cost when using abundant number of connections elements such as bolts and screws in fact have negative cost effects. Additionally, at the end-of life stage, removing and separating building materials costs more compared to the actual value for reuse. Still, threat of limited landfill space in the future, rising tipping fees, and increased environmental pressures necessitate a solution. Deconstruction for reuse and transformation potential is a better alternative to demolition, primarily in its consistency with recent trends in environmental life-cycle awareness [12].
4 Conclusions
When applied on the right renovation projects and under the right circumstances, design for deconstruction and disassembly can be environmentally and financially advantageous for wall partitioning. A right selection in each renovation project should be made, evaluating which building layers have a high rate of alteration, or estimating which building layers are expected to need future upgrading. However, need for change is never predictable, and thus, when assessment of DfD approach for a building layer reveals that it is viable in environmental and financial terms, even in building layers with a low change rate, it is always safer to introduce DfD design. In that way, unpredictable needs can still be responded without taking part in the environmental degradation. Since the service life of building layers has been identified to be a major key player, different scenarios must always be assessed considering alternative renovation proposals. A short service life of the considered building layer makes DfD solutions viable in both environmental and financial terms, since many alterations will be needed over the life cycle, and the extended useful lives reuse potential of DfD designed assemblies can be fully taken advantage of. For building layers that do not have a high rate of change DfD solutions are not always desirable since they can create higher life cycle costs and impacts. Each situation therefore has to be assessed to make sure if DfD solutions are required. A barrier for deconstruction and disassembly nowadays is the high labour cost involved. As tools and techniques for deconstruction improve, and subsequently productivity improves, labour costs should see a reduction in the near future [12]. With these improvements, in time deconstruction techniques will become more competitive with demolition practice [13].
References
[1] UN-HABITAT, The State of the Worlds Cities 2008/2009: Harmonious Cities, Earthscan, London, 2008. [2] State of the World 2009 - Into a Warming World, The Worldwatch Institute, 2009.

[3] Thormark, C., A low energy building in a life cycle its embodied energy, energy need for operation and recycling potential, Building and Environment, 37, pp. 429-435, 2002. [4] Thormark, C., The effect of material choice on the total energy need and recycling potential of a building, Building and Environment, 41, pp.1019 1026, 2006. [5] Debacker, W. et al., 4 Dimensional design: From strategies to cases Generation of fractal grammar for reusing building elements, International Journal of Ecodynamics 2007: 258 277, 2007. [6] Debacker, W., Design and environmental load assessment of multi-use construction kits for temporary applications based on 4Dimensional Design, PhD diss., Faculty of Engineering Sciences, Department of Mechanics of Materials and Constructions, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 2008. [7] Allacker, K., Sustainable Building: The development of an evaluation method, PhD diss, Faculty of Engineering Sciences, Department of Architectural Engineering, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, 464p., 2010. [8] ISO 14040, Environmental management Life cycle assessment Principles and framework, 20p, 2006. [9] Eco-indicator, www.pre.nl/eco-indicator99. [10] Durmisevic, E., Transformable Building Structures, PhD diss, Faculty of Architectural Engineering, Technical University Delft, 305 p., 2006. [11] ISO 15686, Buildings and constructed assets: Service life planning- Part 1, International Organisation for Standardisation, 41p, 2000. [12] Endicott, B., et al., Research on Building Deconstruction, Final Project Report, University of California Berkley, 36p, 2005. [13] Greer, D., Building the Deconstruction Industry, Biocycle, p 36-42, 2004.
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Development of a sustainable construction system for temporary structures

N. De Temmerman & L. Alegria Mira
Department of Architectural Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium
Abstract
Non-static structures that can adapt their shape, or which can be quickly and easily deployed to perform their architectural function and removed afterwards without damaging sensitive sites, are well-equipped to meet the demands of a rapidly changing society which embraces the concept of sustainable design. Generally, mobile deployable structures are capable of transforming from a small, closed or stowed configuration to a much larger, open or deployed configuration. In architecture, the main applications are temporary lightweight structures such as emergency shelters or exhibition and recreational structures. For these purposes deployable scissor structures are most effective. They consist of beam elements connected by pivot joints, allowing them to be folded into a compact bundle for storage or transport. Subsequently, they are deployed, demonstrating a huge volume expansion. This process can be reversed, allowing reuse. In this paper an innovative kit-of-parts system is developed for deployable scissor structures. A new multi-configurational Universal Scissor Component (USC) is geometrically designed to create scissor structures in a generic way. The designed USC single and unique is used to compose different configurations. The structures can be disassembled and the USC can then be reconfigured, enabling reuse (cfr. the toy construction system Meccano). The components uniformity favours mass-production, implying a cost benefit. Moreover, the diversity in possible structural forms invites multiple uses. Keywords: transformable structures, temporary structures, deployable structures, scissor structures.
1 Introduction
1.1 Transformable structures 4D design (four-dimensional design) entails a design attitude in which time is explicitly included from the earliest stages of conception. So, besides the 3dimensional space, the fourth dimension becomes a determining design parameter. The structure is transformable over time and can be described as being relocatable, reuseable, demountable; the building components can be reconfigurable, removeable, replaceable, etc. Temporary structures which have this transformational capacity, and are lightweight or easily removeable, have a lower impact on the site which makes them ecologically favourable. Generally, sustainable design can interact on one or more of three levels: (1) material (e.g. recycling, up-or downcycling), (2) component (e.g. reuse, reconfiguration), (3) structure (e.g. retrofitting, flexible renovation with infill). In this research, focusing on the component level, the methods used for implementing transformation are kit-of-parts systems and structural mechanisms. 1.1.1 Kit-of-parts systems This concept relies on the philosophy of designing and building like a Meccano system with dry, reversible connections allowing a gradual transformation of the structure over time (Figure 1). Only a few components are used as the basic building blocks, but with the possibility to compose a myriad of configurations (cfr. Lego system). A generative dimensioning system is used as an underlying geometric grid and guarantees that existing and future components will be compatible with the system. This enables the design to meet changing needs of a dynamic society, gradually over a certain period in time.
Figure 1:
Example of a kit-of-parts system ( Michael Lefeber).
1.1.2 Structural mechanisms With the introduction of a mechanism into a structural system, it is equipped with the ability to transform from a small, closed or stowed configuration to a much larger, open or deployed configuration (Figure 2). The obtained structures are generally referred to as deployable structures, which can transform instantaneously [1]. Deployable structures are characterized by their dual functionality as loadbearing structures or mechanisms. As load-bearing structures they transfer live
287
Figure 2:
Example of a deployable scissor structure ( Grupo Estran).
and dead loads. As mechanisms they provide the reversible alteration of their form, making them adaptable to altered boundary conditions [2]. Although the research subject of deployable structures is relatively young, the principle of transformable objects and spaces has been applied throughout history (the Mongolian yurt, the pantographic weightlifting crane of Leonardo da Vinci). Nowadays, the main application areas are the aerospace industry, requiring highly compactable, lightweight payload (solar arrays), and architecture, requiring either fixed-location retractable roofs for sports arenas (Wimbledon) or mobile, lightweight temporary shelters (emergency tents and recreational structures) [3]. Generally, mobile deployable structures consist of a weather protecting cladding supported by some form of erectable structure, which is capable of easily being moved in the course of normal use and can be assembled at high speed, on unprepared sites, for plural human activities. For this purpose, scissor structures are most effective: besides being transportable, they have the great advantage of speed and ease of erection and dismantling, while offering a huge volume expansion [4]. 1.2 Sustainable transformable construction system: Meccano and mechanism In this paper, an innovative construction system for deployable scissor structures is developed based on two levels: (i) the reuse of a structure and (ii) the possible reconfiguration of its constitutive components. While current designs of scissor systems give an ad hoc solution, this research provides a methodology for designing a transformable system resulting in generic scissor structures. The scissor component, the Universal Scissor Component (USC), is single and unique and designed to compose a vast number of different architectural configurations. So, on one hand the developed scissor structures can be transported and deployed on site making the structure reusable, and on the other hand the USC can be reconfigured and reused in different geometric forms. In this way, the Universal Scissor Component combines the two aspects kit-of-parts and structural mechanism, resulting in a sustainable construction system for temporary applications which can easily meet changing requirements.
2 Scissor units
Scissor units, also called scissor-like elements (SLEs) consist of two beams connected through a revolute joint, the intermediate hinge, allowing a relative rotation, but at the same time introducing bending moments in the beams. By connecting such SLEs at their end nodes by hinges, a linkage is formed, which can be transformed from a compact bundle of elements to a fully deployed configuration. If linkages are connected to each other according to a three dimensional grid, a deployable scissor mechanism is formed which can be used for architectural purposes (Figure 2). Finally, by adding constraints, the mechanism goes from the deployment phase to the service phase, in which it can bear loads. Depending on the location of the intermediate joint and the shape of the beams, three main unit types can be distinguished: translational, polar and angulated units (Figures 3, 4 and 5).
Figure 3:
Translational linkage [5].
Figure 4:
Scissor mechanism of polar units [5].
Figure 5:
A radially deployable linkage consisting of angulated scissors with kinked beams [5].
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3 Development of a Universal Scissor Component (USC)

3.1 Configurations of the structures To determine the geometric dimensions of the USC, a closer look has to be taken which configurations of structures to consider. Deployable structures with a function of a temporary shelter are expected to enclose a three-dimensional space [6, 7]. 3.1.1 Barrel vaults To perform an architectural function (providing weather protection) a barrel vault is a simple, but effective typology. Barrel vaults or cylindrical grids are monoclastic shapes. They can be obtained by curving one direction of an orthogonal two-way grid. Using polar units is an effective way of introducing single curvature in an orthogonal grid as shown in Figure 6: - direction X, or transverse direction, contains rows of identical polar units in arch formation (in this case, 5 polar units per arch); - direction Y, or longitudinal direction, contains parallel rows of identical translational units connecting the polar arches.
Figure 6:
Perspective view of a barrel vault [5].
3.1.2 Domes Besides barrel vaults, also dome geometries are considered in this paper. Domes are not only architecturally and structurally viable structures; they can also serve as a geometric transition to more exotic and interesting shapes thanks to the use of angulated scissor elements. To minimize distortion of two- or three-way grids over a sphere, polyhedra can be used. A selection is made of polyhedra with an equal edge length, because an identical USC in the whole global structure is the starting point. The selection results in a multitude of different geometries for the investigated architectural dome structures. The following polyhedra are considered: icosahedron, dodecahedron, icosidodecahedron, buckyball (truncated icosahedron) and an adjusted rhombic triacontahedron. A dome structure, independent from the considered polyhedron, is made deployable by substituting every edge of the polyhedron by scissor elements. For

this purpose angulated scissors are implemented because of their beneficial properties, such as the ability to develop a more stable deployment process for shapes capable of retracting towards their proper perimeter. Figure 7 shows how the adjusted rhombic triacontahedron forms the basis of a deployable dome using angulated scissors.
Figure 7:
The adjusted rhombic triacontahedron deployable dome structure with scissor elements detail of edge replacement by angulated units [5].
3.2 Geometric dimensions A USC will be designed with the ability to configure both barrel vaults as domes. To reach this possibility, the USC must be able to function as the three standard scissor units: translational, polar and angulated, depending on the desired end configuration. Because hinge displacements have a dramatic influence on the structure shape, in this section decisions will be made concerning the different geometric dimensions based on possible hinge positions. These are the dominating aspect for the geometry: because all the components are identical, i.e. the USC, the only difference between the configurations is the position of the pivot hinge. 3.2.1 Angulated part of the component The angulated element is determined by the different geometric polyhedra to form radially deployable domes. Because of the fixed geometry of the polyhedra, also the angulated part of the USC is relatively fixed. If the length of the kinked beam of an angulated scissor unit is considered as a parameter, the height is determined for a certain polyhedron (Figure 8).
Figure 8:
Parameters of an angulated beam.
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A length of 2m is chosen because of the resulting range from low to high spans for multifunctional deployable structures. Moreover, a length of 2m seems to be still manually manageable. A 2m length for the angulated scissor results for each considered polyhedron in a certain height. Further, a selection is made between these different height values. The decision is based on the feasibility of the distance between the intermediate hinge positions, from a manufacturing point of view. For that reason the icosidodecahedron is excluded: the corresponding height value was too close to other values. Figure 9 presents the ultimate geometric dimensions for the angulated part of the USC for which six different dome structures can be built geometrically. Hinge position cm 10.2 16.4 20.6 28.4 33.8 38.2 Dome polyhedron Buckyball Adjusted rhombic triacontahedron Buckyball Icosahedron Adjusted rhombic triacontahedron Dodecahedron Elements/edge Double Double Single Double Single Single Span Dome m 16.9 12.2 8.5 6.2 6.1 5.2
1 2 3 4 5 6
Figure 9:
Ultimate geometric dimensions for the angulated part of the USC [5].
3.2.2 Translational/polar part of the component Compared to the relative fixed geometry of the angulated elements in the domes, the polar and translational units allow a bigger freedom in geometry choice. A polar unit is simply obtained by moving the intermediate hinge of a translational unit away from the middle of the beams. This eccentricity of the revolute joint creates curvature when the units become deployed. A beam from a translational and polar unit can thus simply be combined into one beam with several hinge positions (Figure 10). The length of the translational or polar beam is fixed on 2m as determined in the previous section. The parameters on which can be anticipated are the number of units and the eccentricity of the polar hinges. Configurations are investigated with a number of units from 4 to 16 to obtain a wide range of barrel vault spans and eccentricities are considered with a minimum distances of 5cm because of practical reasons.

Hinge cm 5 position Number of polar units in arch of Barrel vault U=7 U=8 U=9 U=10 U=11 U=12 U=13 U=14 U=15 U=16 U=5 U=6 U=4 Span Barrel vault m 8.3 9.4 10.5 11.6 12.6 13.6 14.6 15.5 16.4 17.3 5.6 6.5 4.1
2 3
10 16
1 2 3
L = 2m Figure 10: Ultimate geometric dimensions for the translational/polar part of the USC [5].
The result is that only the eccentricities of 5cm, 10cm and 16cm have to be regarded to form thirteen barrel vaults differing in span and shape (Figure 10). 3.3 Geometric shape In the previous section the geometric dimensions were determined. The positions of the pivot hinges are found with the ability to compose them in such way that nineteen different architectural structures can be configured. The next step is to constitute a shape for the scissor component based on the theoretical positions of the hinges. A shape, easy to manufacture, is formed by simply connecting the hinge positions with beams. Figure 11 illustrates the designed Universal Scissor Component with the different elements.
Figure 11:
Universal Scissor Component [5].
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3.4 Deployment Not only do the hinge positions determine the ultimate shape of the deployable structure, they also have an impact on the deployment behaviour which differs between barrel vaults and domes. In the case of the barrel vaults, the deployment has a two dimensional character: the transformation proceeds automatically in the transversal and longitudinal direction, as shown in Figure 12. For the domes, the deployment transforms radially. While deploying the geometric shape stays constant, only a variation in span is noticed (Figure 13).
Figure 12:
Barrel vault with USCs in four deployment configurations [5].
Figure 13:
Deployable dome based on the adjusted rhombic triacontahedron from a fully closed to an open configuration [5].
3.5 Structural evaluation of the USC concept The key element with scissor structures is that there is a direct and mutual relationship between the geometry, the kinematics and the structural response of the system. Besides the geometrical properties, inherent to the kinematic deployment behaviour, as explained in the previous sections, a preliminary structural study is conducted to investigate the feasibility of the proposed concept. As a reference case study, the largest barrel vault (17m x 17m) is analysed structurally in the fully deployed configuration, where the mechanism is blocked and it acts as a load-bearing structure (Figure 14). The structure is calculated using the Eurocode standards. Beside self-weight, also climate loads (transverse and longitudinal wind and snow) are considered as indicated by Figure 15.

Relative small cross sections are found (maximum 51mm), compared to the covered area, proving the preliminary feasibility of these types of constructions. But it is to be expected that nearly all of the USC beams are over-dimensioned. Moreover, in previous research it is stated that traditional scissor elements show a low to medium structural efficiency due to existing bending moments [8]. But this first structural calculation proves that the designed USC rather excludes bending moments, thus increasing the structural efficiency of the structure.
Figure 14:
Model of barrel vault in software program SCIA ESA-PT [5].
Figure 15:
Schematic representation of climate loads [5].
4 Conclusions
The aim of the work was to develop an innovative construction system based on a Universal Scissor Component (USC) for deployable structures. Based on different configurations of structures barrel vaults and domes decisions were made on the geometric dimensions and the shape of the component. Considering feasible hinge positions, the design process resulted in a USC capable of configuring nineteen different architectural structures with
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specific deployment behaviour (Figure 16). The USC is the unique component in all the investigated configurations; the only difference is the position of the pivot hinge. A preliminary structural analysis has proven the feasibility of the proposed concept and indicates the increased structural efficiency of scissor structures using USCs. Further research and a detailed analysis are required to optimise this construction system in terms of weight-per-covered-area-ratio and material- and energy use. Deployable structures have become increasingly popular, but few have been realised successfully. Further work can consist of a better understanding of the design parameters and the related allowable tolerances and imperfections, in order to respect the architectural function of the structure and to guarantee a successful deployment and folding. Their further development calls for research into fundamental issues regarding the shape of the constitutive elements, the connections, the membrane, the deployment behaviour, and the structural performance, both during and after the transformation process. The proposed USC-concept makes reuse and adaptability possible: it is well equipped to meet the demands of a rapidly changing society while embracing the concept of sustainable design.
Figure 16:
Selection of the possible deployable structures composed of the Universal Scissor Component [9].
References
[1] Jensen, F.V. Concepts for retractable roof structures. PhD Dissertation University of Cambridge, 2004. [2] Rckert, G.C. Wandelbare hybride Konstruktionen Von der morphologischen Studie zum Prototyp. PhD Dissertation Technischen Hochschule Zrich, 2000.

[3] Gantes, C.J., Deployable Structures: Analysis and Design, WIT Press, pp. 189, 2001. [4] De Temmerman, N. Design and Analysis of Deployable Bar Structures for Mobile Architectural Applications. PhD Dissertation Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 2007. [5] Alegria Mira, L. Design and Analysis of a Universal Scissor Component for Mobile Architectural Applications. Masters Dissertation Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 2010. [6] Escrig, F. Expandable space structures, Space Structures Journal, Vol 1, No 2, pp. 79-91, 1985. [7] Escrig, F. & Valcarel, J.P. Geometry of Expandable Space Structures. International Journal of Space Structures, Vol 8, Nos 1&2, pp. 71-84, 1993. [8] Hanaor, A. & Levy, R. Evaluations of Deployable Structures for Space Enclosures. International Journal of Space Structures, Vol 16, No 4, pp. 211229, 2001.181 [9] Alegria Mira, L. & De Temmerman, N., Design and Analysis of a Universal Scissor Component for Mobile Architectural Applications. Proc. of the Int. Association for Shell and Spatial Structures (IASS) Symposium Shanghai, eds. Q. Zhang, L. Yang & Y. Hu, China Architecture & Building Press, pp. 815-826, 2010.
Section 4 Cultural heritage
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The impact of urban sprawl on the heritage areas through the urban fabric of cities
A. El Menchawy, S. S. Aly & M. A. Hakim
Arab Academy for Science and Technology, Architectural Engineering and Environmental Design Department, Alexandria, Egypt
Abstract
Historical sites are the economic, cultural and social drivers for a dynamic and sustainable environment. They constitute an integral part of nations history, identity and regional diversity. Small and medium-sized historical sites with their outstanding built cultural heritage strongly shape the urban landscapes and form the backbone for a balanced and polycentric settlement structure. Historical sites face many challenges, like accelerating globalization, structural, social and demographic changes as well as environmental problems and urban growth. As urban growth is a double faced process it is the concentration of population in urban areas due to supplied services that are missing in rural areas, at the same time it is a decline of socio-economic areas agglomerations. This increase in population happens due to the concentration of economic activity, which is an important determinant, and the result of urbanization. This results in introducing unbalanced trends which destroys human cohesion and builds social exclusion in cities and regions. Through urbanization, people ignore their identities and traditions seeking adequate services and a better lifestyle leading to the disappearance of existing urban fabric that creates an undefined urban pattern. The right balance between restoring and preserving unique cultural heritage has to be set to enable futureproof urban development. Urban growth affects the efficiency of production and economic growth, and the way agents interact and live in cities. Understanding its implications and causes has captured the interest of economists, architects and urban planners in the past and deserves to continue doing so in the future. The research aims to extract a set of urban guidelines to cope with the development process with respect to the identity and character of the place and to

highlight the importance of historical sites, which creates job opportunities, and help to raise the socio-economic level of the society Keywords: historical sites, heritage, identity, architectural style, urban conservation.
1 Introduction
Cities and towns act as catalyst for cultural, social and economic development. Half of the worlds population already lived in urban settlement. Historical sites represent the heart of the cities which play a very important role in creating a stimulating and economically attractive environment for inhabitants. The development of these sites is an integral part of societies that comprises historic buildings, urban spaces and people using them. Preserving this cultural identity of the city through making the necessary changes for development while maintaining current qualities is one of the main goals of the paper. 1.1 Problem statement Urbanization is the physical growth of urban areas because of global change. It is derived from Latin word urbs a term used by the Romans to a city. Thompson Warren has defined it as the movement of people from communities concerned chiefly or solely with agriculture to other communities generally larger whose activities are primarily centered in government, trade and manufacture. It is closely linked to modernization, industrialization and the sociological process of rationalization. 1.1.1 Causes of urbanization Urbanization are affected by many factors mainly the key determinant of migration is the income differential between rural and urban regions. Migration is also affected by crop prices, landowning structures and changes in agricultural technologies. It is also influenced by other factors related to individual or household structures and survival strategies, and wider political, economic and social forces that are presented in the following: Higher standard of living that is missing in rural areas due to unpredictable weather conditions such as drought and floods, which can adversely affect their livelihood. Linkage to the global economy due to presence of new information technologies resulting in benefits are not equally shared among people. National government policies concerning migration, national investment in communications, transport infrastructure have profound impacts on the urban system. Creating a strong bond between communities due to culture exchanging.
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2 Identifying heritage
2.1 Definition of heritage The property, attribute or immaterial possession inherited from ancestors. ICCROM team [1]. Therefore, heritage is: Future Past Transmission Present Figure 1: Reflecting the achievement of such civilization
Heritage connecting past with present for a better future.
Heritage has many different ways and forms which are classified as follows: 2.1.1 Cultural heritage or national heritage It is the creative expression of peoples existence in the past represented through the legacy of physical artifacts and intangible attributes that are inherited from past generations maintained in the present and bestowed for the benefit of future generations. 2.1.2 Cultural heritage can be distinguished through two kinds 2.1.2.1 Physical or tangible heritage Includes material heritage, which can be physically touched and considered worthy of preservation for future generations. Tangible heritage in its meaning includes two types: Movable tangible heritage: Objects that can be moved easily from one place to another. Immovable tangible heritage: Buildings which cannot be removed from its place of origin. 2.1.2.2 Intangible cultural heritage Immaterial heritage, which means the practices, representations, expressions, knowledge, music, dance, theatre and religious ceremonies that, is transmitted from generation to generation in response to their environment, their interaction with nature provides them with sense of identity. 2.1.3 Natural heritage Natural features consisting of physical, biological and geological formations or habitat of threatened plants or animal species, which are of outstanding universal value from the aesthetic or scientific point of view.

2.2 Importance of heritage Conveys diverse messages and values that contribute to give a meaning to peoples life. Represents the identity of a social group. Represents a vehicle for understanding the diversity of people and developing a policy for peace and mutual comprehension. A source of economic development.
3 Identity
3.1 Definition of identity It is the collective aspect of the set of unique characteristics (behavioral or physical features) by which a thing or person is recognizable or known. Cultural identity: is a social process in which individuals participate in the context of changing historical conditions like historical reservoir [2]. Identity is defined as follows: It is the distinguishing character or condition of a person or a thing according to place within historically specific discourses. 3.2 Reasons of fading of identity
Imported cultures
Societies exposed to layers of cultures that were localized by time Identity changed due to new demands lead historical cores to stand-alone Explosion of information and technology formed the adaption to less predictable environment Modern culture less determined by location because it is increasingly penetrated by distance
Structure of the city
Global paradox
Threatening defined boundaries between societies that results in no defined culture that differ a community from another. Leading to presence of the same image in communities
Globalization & de-territoriality
Figure 2:
Factors affecting fading of identity.
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3.3 Urban identity in the changing context of the city The essential goal for future development of a good environment is identity. At the urban level, the environment should be such that it encourages people to express themselves and to become involved. City is always dynamic which includes an evolving process that can destroy and replace parts of it. This evolution is also significant in the creation of a sense of place (Okaty [3]). 3.3.1 The significance of districts The local urban context is considered, the district or quarter/neighborhood that is the identifying symbol both for the evaluation of the city, and for the new urban extension, and it is also fundamental for sustainable development. Considering the identity theme, the neighborhood is not seen as a means for participation but as a vehicle for strengthening the bonds between residents and their environment. In this context, topographical circumstances such as a dividing river or a green belt may signicantly contribute to the formation of different districts. Since the identity of the neighborhood grows from the continuous relationship between the place and its residents, the neighborhood is expected to become its residents cultural creation and at the same time a means for the preservation of the cultural continuity of the city. 3.3.2 The role of public spaces Perception of the visual forms that provide the physical context for the public domain is very important. Public space is regarded as the common ground where people carry out the functional and ritual activities that bind a community, whether in the normal routines of daily life or in periodic festivities (Carr et al, 1992, p xi). It is the urban experience of places and spaces conceived to link people to vital social life. However, the perception of public domain is formed from the given information from the surrounding environment. The public domain extends from the streets, squares and parks to the buildings that enclose them, it makes the most important part of towns and cities (Madanipour [15]). Perhaps the best evidence for the vital importance of public urban spaces is historical. The street: (Jacobs [16]), is an important critic of the urban forms: Streets and their sidewalks, the main public places of a city, are its most vital organs. The optimum definition for a street is an enclosed, three-dimensional space between two lines of adjacent buildings. However, nowadays the concept of street has been lost due to lack of three-dimensional qualities. The square: it is most easily imaginable, and represents a goal for movement. It is determined by the same formal factors as the street, with the difference that the buildings are not the edge of the public space but it is the frame forming the overall image (Moughtin [4]).
4 Characteristics of Arab architecture and features driven from them

In researching the sources, the following principles can be distilled that will help give us an understanding of how man should address the environment: Stewardship of the Earth; Relationship with Nature; Relationship between Men; Justice; The Public Interest; Concern for the Poor and Weak; and, Individual Behavior (Khan [5]). 4.1 Design principles of the Arab City in broad terms 4.1.1 Natural law It is respecting natural circumstances as weather conditions and topography and adapting the built form and city plan with it. This principle resulted in concepts as the courtyard, terrace, narrow covered streets, and gardens (Saaoud [6]). 4.1.2 Religious and cultural beliefs Religious beliefs and practices had an enormous effect forming the cultural life center for the Arab people, thus: a) The Mosque is the central node for spatial and institutional hierarchies. b) Town plan is of courtyard houses with narrow streets and cul-de-sacs separating public and private zones. c) Economic activities and residential zones were separated to emphasize the separation of male and female user of space. 4.1.3 Social principles The social organization of the urban society was based on social groupings sharing the same blood, ethnic origin and cultural perspectives. These were reflected in the concept of quarters known as Ahiaa (in the Mashraq) or Huma (in the Maghreb). 4.2 Detailed principles and driven features 4.2.1 Form and climate Due to climate: a) Natural architectural forms using appropriate local materials evolved to retain the coolness of night of the evening throughout the hot day. b) Forms are designed to catch the cool wind when it blows. c) The use of heavy, thick walls of mud, masonry or stone is for sufficient thermal resistance [7]. 4.2.2 The driven features The driven features are: a) The openings of buildings are small windows placed for privacy and protection from the sun by the Mashrabeyya. b) Inside court, forms are used, covered with colonnades and the rooms open onto the balconies overlooking the court allowing air to flow through the building in every room. c) The planning of narrow streets between buildings shade throughout the day, cooling buildings walls and streets.
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5 Case study: Turkish town space and society

5.1 Introduction The design of town is design in four dimensions. A town provides a framework for change to meet the changing needs of those who live and work in it. local resources are discovered, exploited and worked out; industries rise and fall; populations ebb and flow, living standards change. Responsive to every nuance of demand, the city all the time adapts itself accordingly. Middleton 1987:35. 5.2 Location and physical setting of the Turkish town Turkish town is situated to the west of the current Alexandria city. It occupies the isthmus separating the western (main) port and the eastern fishing port. The area is bordered by the sea on three sides, while the south ends with Alexandrias business district. It stretches about 1 km in the north-south direction and 800m in the east-west direction. Turkish town Mediterranean Sea
Figure 3:
Map showing Turkish town in relation to Alexandria.
Through recent historical development of the city assert the dramatic pressures that are to be considered in order to deal with the problems of overloaded infrastructure, services, transport as well as the inevitable economic and commercial pressures resulting from its physical setting and the surrounding forces. A major thoroughfare (Al Corniche) borders the area, and to the south by Al Nasr Street; within these borders it is sliced into smaller zones by a group of main streets that belong to the late 19 c. Despite the various attempt for modernization, the traditional morphological outline of the area is still readily distinguishable. 5.3 Historical background The Turkish Town: was founded in 1517 with the start of the Turkish regime. This area was the only inhabited area until the early 19th century. It lies with its commercial activities at the neck between the two harbors the eastern and western harbors and outside the fortified walls of the Arab city. In the middle of

the 17th century, Alexandria was described as a small village with two or three streets and a bazaar. In the period of 1630-1640 A.D. there were new developments based largely on the trade of Yemeni coffee beans exported to the ottoman provinces and Europe in addition to the textile manufacturing using silk, which was imported from Syria where 12% of population worked in this trade (Breccia [9]). Mohamed Ali constructed an access for Ras el Tin Palace (1817) which lies on the extreme west of the ancient island of Pharos, was provided by the enlarging and widening of Faranca Street.
Al corniche
Al Anfushi Western port
Figure 4: Al Nasr Street
Google Earth showing the borders of Turkish town and the access to the town though two main streets Al corniche and Al Nasr Street.
5.4 Architecture style of the area Despite the lack of documentation for the architectural history of the Turkish town it appears in the diversity of nature of the area, remains of style and state of the buildings has made it clear to establish the outline of the building development which have witnessed 4 stages of development, as shown in Table 1. 5.5 Morphological analysis 5.5.1 Street pattern The general street pattern, even the modern parts have a certain degree of irregularity which is due to: the curved nature of its natural borders and obviously to the influence of the traditional urban pattern of the city.
The Unknown Soldier square
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Table 1:
Hierarchy in architectural style of Turkish town [10].
5.5.2 The sequence of street pattern of Turkish town The sequence of street pattern of Turkish town can be illustrated as follows: Shariah: serves as the main street which links the area with other parts of the town which enclose shops. The width of the street allows for movement of carts. Harah: serves as a secondary street which is narrower than the former, mainly used as access both houses and smaller streets (Atfa or Zuqaq). These streets form the first community unit as the occupants of each Harah participate in a close social life and act as a big family.

Atfa: this kind of street serves as a link between the main street and the Harah. It is narrower than the Harah as it was designed to accommodate pedestrians as well as carrying animals. Zuqaq: a short dead end street which forms the last threshold of the sequence (Assem [11]). Table 2: Representing different street patterns.
The intersection of these streets is hardly to be at a right angle.
Pedestrians gain a rich visual experience due to irregularity of streets.
The richness of street environment with human activities.
Shadow areas occur due to the narrow width of streets satisfying environmental comfort.
The width of the streets has emphasized the social cohesion of communities.
Streets mainly concerned with pedestrian rather than a route for vehicle traffic.
Figure 5: Representing the hierarchy of the street patterns of Turkish town. 5.6 Land use and activities pattern To evaluate the economic pattern of the area: Over 60% of the working force of Al Gommrok is working in the district whilst 30% of
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The overall working force in it comes from other areas these figures shows the potential for economic activities within the area, as it employs about 90% of its working force Those activities can be classified as the following fishing, commercial activities (retail forming the backbone of the economic structure they represent) 40%, workshops represent 19% like furniture and metal, wholesale represents 11%. Historical buildings the main buildings are (Al Shourbagy Mosque, Terrbana mosque, Abou Al Abbas mosque) (Wratten [12]).
Residential Fishing related activities Governmental Port related activities Food market Retail shops Metal workshops Furniture workshops
Figure 6:
Land use of Turkish town. (See online for colour version of this figure.)
5.7 Heights and building conditions
Figure 7: Sample in the Turkish town shows different heights of buildings. (See online for colour version.)

Represents building heights varies from 7 to 12 heights which is found behind the European residential building styles. As the building condition of these buildings varies are in good conditions (good structure system and building materials). The height of buildings ranges from 2 to 3 floors maximum this is due to the structure (bearing walls with no foundation). The height at this area varies from 5 floors till 20 floor due to presence of different architectural style. 5.8 S.W.O.T analysis 5.8.1 Strengths Location of Turkish town near Qaiet Bay fort and bibliotheca Alexandria as shown in figure 8, to create touristic trips connecting those attractive points with the Turkish town. Presence of historical buildings dating back to ottoman reign, which concentrate commercial and recreational activities. Hierarchy in walkways from pedestrian to vehicle streets. Historical buildings of Turkish town used ecological materials to adapt the environmental conditions of Arab cities such as limestone, marble and wood.
Qaiet Bay Fort Turkish Town Bibliotheca Pompeys pillar
Alexandrina
Roman theater Amphie
Figure 8:
Representing development of Turkish town [13].
5.8.2 Weakness Due to the presence of historical monuments, dating back to the Turkish town that suffers from enormous threat the theme of the urban fabric represented nowadays as random scattering of different architectural styles. There were no themes in distribution of land use in the Turkish town as represented in the variety of uses placed there such as (industrial, commercial, residential, monumental and some governmental buildings). Lack of streetscape along the Turkish town such as (lighting fixtures, furniture, signs and garbage disposal) loosening the town its identity. Presence of deteriorating housing core which results from unrealistic urban planning. The absence of essential community facilities and services to fit the urban growth found in the site.
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5.8.3 Opportunities Monumental buildings are always a center of attraction whether for tourists or residents which appear in commercial and some industrial activities that are related with the identity of the place this creates job opportunities and help in raising socio economical level of inhabitants. Through observation the rate of movement of tourists is directly proportional to the activities located in historical sites which is one of the helpful things for tourism to let them explore such places carefully and understand different civilizations which encourages preserving the streets as it is according to their proportions. Rehabilitation of historical buildings to reuse it to help for upgrading the social life of inhabitants and make it easier for tourist to be introduced to the traditions of the place. 5.8.4 Threats High population density affects buildings conditions accelerating its deterioration. Traffic and huge network of transportation results in vibration to the foundation of historical buildings. Bad infrastructure causing sanitation problems due to presence of slum areas that are not supported with the needed services. Underground water accelerates demolition of residential buildings due to insufficient services for urban development (Rankine [14]).
6 Conclusions
During recent decades, the rehabilitation and regeneration of historic centers has been increasingly recognized as an efficient tool for urban development, synthesizing cultural values with economic opportunities and benefits. The value of each historic building is not only in the appearance of individual elements, but also in the integrity of all its components as a unique product of the specific
Figure 9:
Solid and void map presenting future development.

building technology of its time and place. Thus, the removal of the inner structures retaining only a faade does not satisfy conservation criteria. Considerations of conservation in development should be seen not only in the light of preserving the built and natural environment, but also the fundamental elements of the social environment equally. Although each generation has an obligation to preserve and transmit the cultural and historic legacy it has inherited, it is not common to witness the destruction of historical or cultural amenities.
7 Recommendations
7.1 Governmental regulations Architectural style: The main squares which enclose the historical monuments of the Turkish town must represent a sequential hierarchy in architectural style to bringing back such spirit of Islamic city to the tourists. Materials: Regulations must be set to adopt using traditional materials and develop it to achieve ecological historical environment. Social conditions: Government regulations must set the rental law to be family renting to be appropriate for the space such as family of 5 persons with a maximum of 3 person/room due to deterioration of buildings. 7.2 Urban planning Land use: The main aim is conserving the main image of the Turkish town through its fabric so attraction points must be distributed along the streets of the Turkish town to attract tourist to walk through the city without feeling bored. Transportation movement: Appropriate parking must be supplied to facilitate tourism movement. Creating loading points for public transportation so as the residents living there could access easily to their home without hurting the historical buildings. There must be separation between pedestrian walks and public roads to facilitate the movement of the tourist in the Turkish town. 7.3 Public awareness Increasing the percentage of illiteracy in the Turkish town affecting the monuments badly this due to the ignorance of the importance of historical sites to the national income for societies. Raising the educational level of people to be effective and cooperative in the conservation process.
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7.4 Improvement of cultural and social environment Creating job opportunities through creating development projects such as attraction points for tourists since it is a focal point through emigrants or tourists. Raising public awareness of the inhabitants and introducing them the importance of historical sites. 7.5 Public realm and open spaces Greater emphasis needs to be given to the street and to the sequential network of pedestrian spaces if the city centre is to become more attractive to future users and investors. Creating more co-ordinate and seamlessly legible townscape, not only for pedestrians, but also for cyclists, drivers and public transport users. New and existing public spaces are to be linked by improved streetscape treatment. Public art, planting, lighting and water features will be incorporated into the new and enhanced spaces. Comfortable street level activity is important, both for civic and event purposes, but also to stimulate general footfall and a sense of public safety and vitality. The perception and visual dominance of the motor car needs to be mitigated to enhance the perception of pedestrian comfort. 7.6 Built form and urban design Promote more integrated, unified centre areas of historical character, scale and building lines, all of which create and reinforce the city block relationship. Focus on the growth of smaller scale cultural activity that reinforces the archaeological heritage of the area and provides opportunities for retail, cafe and restaurants that are consistent with the fabric, scale and character of the area. Active ground floor uses will be encouraged along main pedestrian routes to stimulate new investment and employment.
References
[1] ICCROM Team, Introducing Young People to the Protection of Heritage Sites and Historic Cities, A Practical Guide For School Teachers in The Arab Region, UNESCO, 1st edition, 2003 [2] Correa Ch., Exploring architecture in Islamic cultures1, Architecture and Identity, The Aga Khan Award for Architecture, Universiti Teknologi, Malaysia, p. 10-13, July 25-27, 1983 [3] Okaty D., The quest for urban identity in the changing context of the city, Eastern Mediterranean University, Faculty of Architecture, p.262, 2002 [4] Moughtin C., Urban Design, Street and Square, Oxford, Third edition, 2003

[5] Khan F. The Islamic Environment: Can the Future Learn from the Past, In Toward an Architecture in the Spirit of Islam, The Aga Khan Award for Architecture, Philadelphia, 1978 [6] Saaoud R., Introduction to the Islamic city, Foundation for Science Technology and civilization, p.4, August 2002 [7] Ismal S., Faith and the Environment, In Space for Freedom, Butterworth Architecture, London, 1989 [8] Google Earth, Alexandria, Egypt, Modified by the researcher, 2011 [8] Jondent G., Atlas Historique De La Ville Et Des Prots DAlexandrie, La societe Sultanieh De Geographie, 1921 [9] Breccia, Alexandria AD Egyptum: a guide to the ancient and modern town and to its Graeco-Roman Museum, Alexandria, 1922 [10] Jason D., Modern Islamic Architecture in Alexandria, Islamic Quarterly, Vol. 13, p. 183-191, 1969 [11] Assem M., Development and conservation with special reference to the Turkish town of Alexandria, Institute of advanced architectural studies University of York, 1993 [12] Wratten E., Gomrok Local Plan, Final report, Alexandria, 1985 [13] Alexandrias map, www.wikitravel.org/upload/shared//5/58/Map1-alex.jpg [14] Rankine L., The planning problems and policies of Heritage coasts, 1976 [15] Madanipour, A., Design of Urban Space. Wiley, New York, p. 146, 1996 [16] Jacobs, J., The Death and Life of Great American Cities. Random House, New York, 1961
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Investigating the sustainable fabric of the historical city of Marvast

M. Mangeli, M. Mangeli & A. Sattaripour
Department of Architecture, Islamic Azad University, Iran
Abstract
Considering the importance of the conservation and restoration of historical places this study aims to investigate the general urbanism and the sustainable features of Marvast fabric in order to achieve a sustainable development procedure. This case study was conducted as a field study by using previous studies, interviewing different people, taking photographs, collecting related information from the real place, and processing the collected information. The whole fabric of Marvast was examined in terms of its sustainable development, the influential factors in its formation and its historical structure. Geomorphology, water resources and the way to access them, and continental elements are the factors that have influenced the formation of Marvast. The only way for appropriate reconstruction of Marvast is the restoration of its sustainable economy along with repairing the residential and other culturally valuable buildings in a new form. Organizing Marvast fabric requires addressing its fabric-related problems with the minimum interventions. Continuing architectural studies and updating the designs based on the latest studies are also recommended. Keywords: Marvast, sustainable desert architecture, urbanism, sustainable fabric, eco architecture, sustainable development, historic fabric, evolution path, skeletal knowledge.
1 Introduction
The historical city of Marvast is one of the oldest cities of Yazd Province in Iran and because of being located next to the Marvast Desert has desert architecture and urban design features. The central part of Marvast is established at the

conjunction of the main connecting road with fertile lands and water resources (aqueducts). Basically, in central part of Iran, the junction of main roads with aqueducts in flat and fertile plains has been the position of locating the initial central part of city. The land slope, the running track of aqueducts, geomorphologic conditions of the region, and ecological issues are considered to be the influential factors in formation of Marvast so that the further development of the city has been made in the direction of land slope and water run. Agricultural activities have been developing in this region from the ancient times, therefore the city is considered as one of the agricultural and population centers of Iran. This plain is now where Marvast City is located. This city like other small desert cities of Iran is not adequately recognized and studied. The only studies conducted about the city and its structure are basic studies conducted by Consulting Engineers Group of Iranian Dwelling Association to prepare the city plan [1]. This paper aims to study the formation features of the central part of the city, its evolution procedure in different periods, and also its fabric based on field and library studies.
2 Methods and materials

This study was conducted based on the existing data as a historical research focusing on the small desert city of Marvast in Yazd Province. The goal of this study is to determine the sustainable historical fabric status of the city, its evolution procedure, and the factors that influence them. The historical fabric of the city was selected as the subject of the study and we attempted to consider some main urban factors and their effects on formation of the city in order to provide a useful resource for future repair works and reconstruction of the city. Marvast is located 185 kilometers south of Yazd Province Center in YazdHarat Road. The city is located at 54 10' to 54 13 east longitudes and 30 27' to 30 29' north latitude with an average height of 1538m and an area of 4km2 in the plain region [2]. The dominant ecological regions of this territory can be divided into three following categories: 1- Desert ecological region 2- Semi-desert ecological region 3- Moderate ecological region with average rainfall of 85.5 mm. Marvast is located at a plain region covered with Neogene sediments. It is faced with high risk of earthquake regarding earthquake relative risk gradation. Marvast is the smallest city of Yazd with a 250-Hectare area and a population of 6934 (male: 3492, female: 3442) according to 1994 statistics. There are 1777 families in Marvast and the population relative density is 34 people per square kilometer.
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Figure 1:
The position map of Yazd province and Marvast city.
According to the classification of practitioners based on the main activities in 1994, 37.63% out of 2668 practitioners who are more than 10 years work in agriculture, 42.62% work in industry, and 19.15% work in services sectors and others work in other main activities [3]. Harat and Marvast are two famous villages near Shahrbabak and are considered as two very old villages of the city. It is assumed that Aryans after immigrating to Iran used their previous villages names to call the new ones, therefore Harat was named in memory of the famous village of Harat and Marvast was named in memory of Marv village [4].
Figure 2:
Formation position of Marvast influenced by different factors.
3 Discussion
3.1 Formation of Marvast The central part of Marvast is established at the junction of the main connecting road with fertile lands and water resources (aqueducts). The land slope, the running track of aqueducts, geomorphologic conditions of the region, and ecological issues are considered to be the influential factors in formation of Marvast so that the further development of the has been made in the direction of land slope and water run. The land slope, the movement run of city s aqueducts also geomorphologic conditions have considered as effective factors on Marvast formation also further development of city, in which further development of city was done based on land slope and water run.
Figure 3:
Establishing position of farm lands and gardens were determiner factors for forming city and its development in next periods.
Figure 4:
Circle of barren land ringed the city and cemetery position in land.
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3.2 The old urbanization structure of Marvast Marvast is formed near the old road connecting Harat to Mehriz and Yazd in a fertile plain with many aqueducts. Based on an aerial image in 1995, we can conclude that the old Marvast at first has had a circular pattern and its residential sections have been formed around a castle then it was further developed into the lands around the old city with ramparts and towers built to provide security. Now there are no traces of the old city and the ramparts of the new one. The only remainder of this old coordinated urban system is one of the towers of the secondary fence of the city.
Figure 5:
The only remaining signs of Marvast city productivity.
Figure 6:
The Old Marvast City and further development on surrounding lands.

The general perspective of the structure of the city includes a city surrounded with fence and rampart and two gates one opened into Harat-Mehriz road and the other, Ghasem Abad Gate, used as an entrance for caravans and passengers coming from the neighbor villages. Two caravansaries were established next to the gates [5]. The old Marvast has had a complete structure and skeleton consisted of three following main parts: - Castle - Middle flux including residential sections and services sections such as Bazaar and Jaame mosque, and - Outward or Rabaz that due to further development of the city and population growth became residential and fences were built to provide security. The skeleton of the pathways of the old fabric in the residential circle around the castle is in a radial form for providing quick access to the castle upon a danger. This formation pattern of the pathways indicates their antiquity and the priority of the establishment of the residential circle in relation to other parts of the fabric. Further development of the city followed a checkered pattern in accordance with the agricultural land divisions that shows the formation of the city in surrounding lands. Beside these two structural patterns, there are circular pathways that seem are established on the walls of the old city. According to above mentioned information, Marvast historical fabric consists of the following distinct parts: 1- Marvast Castle: this castle was the central part of the city located at the geometric center of the city and was used during the enemies attacks (fig. 7). 2- The fabric around the castle: a collection of brick and clay houses all with an internal yard that like all of the old building at the margins of desert cities have an extrovert view. These houses are connected to the central part of the city through narrow and organically formed meandering pathways. The main buildings of the city such as Jaame mosque, reservoir, bath, and bazaar are established in this part of the city around the castle providing the most convenient access for the dwellers. 3- The fabric around the old wall of the city: this part of the city is the second developmental circle of the city and encompassed some of the agricultural lands of the old city. The establishment of buildings and pathways in this part follows the segmentation pattern of agricultural lands. The brick and clay houses are organized serially and the pathway network follows the farming lands boundaries pattern, therefore this part of the city has a checkered pattern. These pathways have a relatively fixed width without any meander. The houses in this part are made of brick and clay and have a central yard but their view is different from that of the houses established around the castle and compared to the fabric around the castle has a rural view with no valuable buildings. The walls are short and the gates are simple without any portal.
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Figure 7:
Ghasem Abad Caravansary and its position regarding the castle.
Figure 8:
The old structure of Marvast and its main elements.
Figure 9:
The fabric included around castle.

3.3 Fabric framework The framework of the historical fabric of Marvast has the skeleton of the plaindesert villages that is established around a castle named Nafs-ol-Gharye. In present situation seven regions including Khajeha, Falahatiha, Arjmandiha, Hosseinieh, Shah Hossini, Haj Ghasem, and Dehghaniha surround the central part of the city as a residential circle with narrow and meandering alleys [6]. Further development of the city has been occurred in an area of about 25 hectares in the last century.
Figure 10:
The present status of historical fabric districts of Marvast.
Figure 11:
The former districts around Marvast Castle.
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3.4 The central part of city Nafs-ol-Gharye Castle is located on a hill at the center of the city and constitutes the central part of the city. The exact age of the castle is unknown. The castle has a square shape with long crenellated walls and three round towers each in one corner of the castle. In the southwest corner we can see the portal of the castle gate. The gate leads to a porch with a domical ceiling.
Figure 12:
The four surfaces of outside and inside space of Marvast Castle.
The castle is constructed on a hill. The soil of the hill is believed to be handmade. There has been a moat around the castle before the beginning of the present century. The location of the castle is such that it overlooks the whole Marvast plain.
Figure 13:
The plan of Nafsol Ghariye Castle and its constructed position as a border and its defending dam.
3.5 The old bazaar The bazaar complex leads to the area around the castle and is in close relation to the central part of the old city. Bazaar is composed of covered passages

(penthouses) with the shops in both sides. It is covered with arch and Toveize and each arch has a skylight. There were a reservoir and old bath in bazaar. The old fabric of Marvast has a hierarchical accessibility system for providing convenient access from extra regional to intraregional and dead end locations. The existing pathways around the castle are divided into four groups: first grade pathways (main pathways), second grade pathways (extra regional pathways), third grade pathways (intraregional pathways), and fourth grade pathways (private pathways).
4 The characteristics of landscape in the districts of Marvast historical fabric

4.1 Symmetry and composition Symmetry is a very important feature for the sustainable use of spaces, construction materials, and solar and wind energy. One of the characteristics that is observed in the buildings remained in Marvast old fabric is the existence of symmetry. The most important visual impact of the symmetry is balance and appropriate coordination and composition. When the structural collections are composed together and provide an enclosed space the need for coordination in terms of uniformity appears so a collection of different buildings with different applications can come to existence as a coordinated unit in the form of so-called fabric. This enclosure and the coordination of construction materials are very influential in saving solar energy and preventing waste of internal energy. We cannot see any straight passage with a fixed width in the old districts of Marvast. The different width of the passages, recess of the houses, meandering alleys, arches and penthouses, open spaces of Hosseinieh, the entrance space of Shah Hossein Mosque, and the spatial hierarchy for accessibility all together provide a spatial paradox (fig. 14). The connecting spaces such as main roads and semi-square spaces that connect different elements of the city to city center have dynamic and static characteristics. It means that spaces such as squares and crossroads are static but
Figure 14:
Restriction in internal pathway in bazaar.
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passages and streets are dynamic. In contrast to a semi-square space which is static, a rectangular space has dynamicity in its length (figs. 14 and 18). Enclosing the spaces is known to be the primary dominant principle in designing sustainable urban places so that an attractive urban place cannot be established unless it is properly enclosed. This principle is universal in most of old cities all over the world and the old fabric of Marvast also follows it (fig.14). In old fabric of Marvast where less interventions have been made we can see a complete coordination among the shape and the dimension of elements and color, fabric, and type of construction materials. Also the arches, domes, and false roofs and their regular repetition provided the fabric with coordination, but this coordination is being destroyed due to the destructions and inappropriate renovations. Some non-coordinated constructs and heterogeneous construction materials have damaged the attractive face of the city (fig. 15). The coordination of color and fabric is another factor that provides the possibility of exploiting solar energy in winter and shadow of the constructs in summer.
Figure 15:
General surface of historical fabric of Marvast.
Figure 16:
The Vaghfi house with entrance decorative porch and its Windcatcher.
Figure 17:
The degrading of roads in historical fabric of Marvast.
Figure 18:
The available symmetric picture outside surface of domical building and symmetric picture of old house.
Figure 19:
Repeated domes as sustainable element for urban space.
The houses high wind catchers, the long walls of dome-shaped buildings, and the castle established on the hill are the elements helpful in finding directions that is another visual feature embedded in Marvast old fabric [7]. We face completely distinct spaces within the districts. The main pathway, the open area of the district center, and Hosseiniehs are public, alleys are semipublic-semiprivate, and dead end alleys and porches that lead to private areas of residential units are semiprivate-semipublic areas.
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Figure 20:
Windcatcher helps to ventilate and make proper air flow inside houses.
5 Conclusion
The climate, the structure and shape of the land might be the most important factors in the formation of Marvast. Different factors such as geomorphology, water resources and the ways to access them, and continental elements are the factors that have influenced the formation of Marvast. The agriculture-based economical system of the city is the reason of its being surrounded by a circle of urban lands that caused a circle-like shape for the city. The districts of the city and their internal connecting structures follow an organic pattern so that they are arranged around a nucleus in a radial form. The only way for appropriate reconstruction of Marvast is the restoration of its sustainable economy along with repairing the residential and other culturally valuable buildings in a new form. Organizing Marvast fabric requires addressing its fabric-related problems with the minimum interventions. Continuing architectural studies and updating the designs based on the latest studies are also recommended. This fabric contains valuable buildings that their repairing and protecting is dependent on the protection of the fabric around them.
References
[1] ShabestanYazd Consulting Engineers, Urban Design of Marvast City, 2004. [2] Geography Organization of Ministry of Defense, Geographical Culture of Villages of Yazd province, 2nd edition, pp. 137-447, 2002. [3] Management and Planning organization, Social-Economic report of Yazd Province, 2002. [4] Bastani Parizi, M., Peyghambar Dozdan, Negah Publications, Tehran, 1985. [5] Afshar, I., Memories of Yazd, Publications of Cultural Works, 2nd edition, Tehran, p. 323, 1995. [6] Hosseini Musa, Z., Shahrbabak, The Turquoise Land, Publications Center for Kerman Recognition, p. 134, 2003. [7] Mangeli, Ma., Reconstruction of Marvast Domical Building (Chapter of historical studies), Thesis of Masters Degree Course, Islamic Azad University, Tehran Central Branch, 2007.
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Evaluation of the conservation activities in the historical settlement Tenedos-Bozcaada Island

F. Akpnar, N. Saygn & E. Karakaya
City and Regional Planning Faculty of Architecture, Izmir Institute of Technology, Turkey
Abstract
The efforts for the conservation of cultural heritage in historical settlements are a highly problematic and multi-faceted issue in Turkey. Although the conservation legislation dates back 50 years, the cultural heritage has not been internalized and not accepted in wider parts of the society and, has not found a solid political base. The historical and cultural heritage areas are mostly marketed for tourism and turned into places as the simulacrum of the elitist and middle class tastes. Tenedos (Bozcaada) Island inherits the rich cultural heritage of two millennia.The Island is in danger of losing its social, cultural and multi-ethnical characteristic where Turkish and Greek societies live harmoniously. The architectural, economic and ecological values are also in danger because of the rise of touristic activities and the construction of vacation homes as well as the States withdrawal to provide subsidy to the agricultural sector that took place after the 1980s in parallel with the general economic policies adopting global economic restructuring. The objective of the paper is to highlight the multidimensional character of the social and spatial process which is enmeshed in the conservation activities of the Island. The values and norms, social, economic considerations in the conservation activities need a new approach and, without existence of a common will and a wider participation of the society it is hard to expect any success in the conservation of the rich cultural values, and to assess, develop and carry them into the future. A bundle of techniques are used: a large survey analysis of the area is realized and its social, historical and physical characteristics are documented. Questionnaires, in-depth interviews are used in order to detect the difficulties for conservation of the heritage in part of the responsible public bodies. The public and tourism sector opinions, thoughts and aspirations are surveyed. Even though,

the preservation of Tenedos Islands cultural heritage appears to be a difficult challenge, there seems to be some positive clues for the future. Keywords: cultural heritage, conservation planning, spatial strategic planning, identity, participation and sustainability.
Introduction
Turkey has been going through a rapid transformation of urbanization, metropolitanization, coastalisation period while facing the challenges of globalization and integration into the global markets. This multi-dimensional makeup has complicated the protection of natural and historical resources and lead to some irreversible destruction of the cultural assets and heritage. The changes in the public lifestyle, the fancy for different taste and the changes in vacation concept, have vastly transformed the coastal areas with rich history and cultural wealth, into resort towns, attracting tourism sector investors and many vacationers while losing their authentic nature and structure. We, as the planners, would like to concentrate on managing and regulating this transformation in an active fashion, instead of opposing it. In this study, main intention is to reveal the economic, social, legal, administrative and spatial implications of Bozcaadas multi-dimensional and complicated conservation challenge, and to demonstrate a strategic framework for managing the Islands transformation. A mixed research approach of quantitative and qualitative study is held on bringing together the Islands changing- recessive agricultural and manufacturing sector, the newly developing service sector (tourism), the administrative branches that regulate and manage the transformation and the public sector and conservation groups. The purpose of the study is to present the conservation profile of Bozcaada, discuss the Islands local context in relation with the countrys urban conservation context. The definition of the challenge dictates identification of the attributes of the solution. The following four areas come forward: (1) Identity and evaluation of the inhabitants (2) Social cohesion (3) Legal-administrative shortcomings and offerings, (4) Economic sustainability.
Brief curricula of Tenedos-Bozcaada Island
Tenedos-Bozcaada Island is located on the Northwestern Aegean coast, 12 nautical miles from the Dardanelle (anakkale) Straits (Hellespont), just west of the coastline of ancient city of Troy (Map 1). The Island is a town (ile) by itself and also has an elected local administration (municipality). Tenedos is one of the two islands in the Northern Agean Sea, the other one, Imbros which is 17 nautical miles away. The Island is of part of anakkale Province in Turkey. Though Tenedos is a small island encompassing an area of 37.6 sq. km., it is the third biggest island of the nation after Imbros (Gkeada) and Marmara, in the Marmara Sea. The Island is four nautical miles away from the main land, and in Geyikli Port, the ferryboats travel between the Island and the mainland. The largest settlement area is located in the northeastern part of the Island.
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MAP I
Map 1. In Turkish, Bozcaada translates to Barren Island, due to the fact that the Island has been characterized largely as dry land with limited resources for exploitation. In the past, the economy of the Island has been mainly fishing and maritime commerce [1]. Until the end of the Classical Antiquity, the Island acted as a base port or shelter for the ships of modest sizes before they made their way into the Sea of Marmara. This strategically important small island was also exploited for agrarian purposes and viniculture has been one of the most important features of the Islands rural economy for centuries. Bozcaadas population according to the last census records is 2354 people (year 2010), however in summer time, it exceeds 8000 people.
Brief history of the Tenedos-Bozcaada
In Homers Iliad and the Odysseia, there are references to the Islands importance [2], where the Islands inlets and bays provided protection for the Hellenistic Army during the Trojan War. In his saga, Aeneid (II. 30, II. 135), written in 1 B.C., the Roman writer, Vergilius talks about events after the collapse of Troy and writes about Aeneas surviving the Trojan war and his arrival to Italy and his adventure of founding Rome: There is an island across from the mainland. It is the island of legendary Tenedos. During the kingdom of Priamos, the islanders lived in wealth

and comfort but now, it is empty and the harbour is not efficient even to drop an anchor. The Greeks came and hid here. [2]. (translation belongs the authors). During the period, after 133 B.C. with the increasing influence of Roman Empire in Anatolia, Tenedos went through political development. The construction of an artificial harbour at Alexandreia Troas, which took over as the control of the world trade route, at the mouth of the Dardanelle Strait might have been a negative factor that subsequently resulted in the decline of the social and economic life in Tenedos in the Roman Era and Late Antiquity [1]. At the end of Classical Antiquity, mainly in 6 B.C., Tenedos harbour regained its importance, especially after the port on the mainland lost its effectivity due to geomorphological changes. Due to its strategic location to the Dardanelles Strait, the Tenedos Harbour played an active role for the East Roman Empire trade. Tenedos was very important for the Ottomans due to the strategic location on the mouth of the Dardanelle Strait. The climactic moment came in 1453, when the last Byzantine emperor, Constantine XI, perished in battle, leaving the sultan Mehmet II, the Conqueror (Fatih), as the master of a multinational empire and stanbul was in the hand of Ottomans. The Island was conquered by the Sultan Mehmet II, in 1455 after the conquest of the stanbul. The very first major accomplishment of Fatih Sultan Mehmet was to rebuild the Islands fort. And many Ottoman structures such as mosques, medressehs, fountains and hamams were built by the Ottoman sultans. In the Ottoman times, Bozcaada was governed by a castellan and a kadi, and at the end of the nineteenth century, a governorship was constituted in the Island, adhered to the Starboard of the Lesbos Island which was a part of the Island of Mediterranean (a Province named as Cezair-i Bahr-i Sefid) State of the Otoman Empire [3]. During the Balkan Wars, the Island was invaded by the Greek Navy and came under the Greek control. When the Turkish War of Independence ended with the Greeks defeat in Anatolia, the Western World agreed to the new Turkish Republic, in 1923 by the Treaty of Lausanne which made Bozcaada and Gkeada part of Turkish Republic, and exempt them from the population exchange that took place between Greece and Turkey. The Greek inhabitants of the two islands were allowed to stay and keep their school and churches. Over the years, many Greek families have left and only few families at present live in the Island (approximately 20 people).
Physical structure of Bozcaada
The built up area of Bozcaada, which is the urban conservation site is located on the northeastern part of the Island, at the skirts of the castle, where the slopes surrounding the settlement reaches the sea in a valley form (Map 2). The main axis, narar Caddesi divides the settlement into two, where the Alaybey Neighborhood is located on the south, whereas Cumhuriyet Neighborhod is located to the north. Historically the Turkish citizens has resided at the Alaybey Neigborhood, known as Turkish District and the Greek citizens reside at the Cumhuriyet Neigborhood, known as Greek District in the daily speech. The
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traditional fabric from the 19th century of Bozcaada presents typical architectural features of Western Anatolia. The religous structures are scattered around the two neighborhoods; the Alaybey Mosque (registered as monument), in its courtyard there is a historic cemetery from the Ottoman Era, Kprl Mehmet Pahsa Mosque (registered as monument), the Namazgah Fountain, hamams etc., are found in Alaybey (Turkish) district, and the others, a Church Virgin Mary (the belfry of the church, which is of 23.8 m height, was restored in 2006), a chapel is located in Cumhuriyet (Greek district).
MAP II
Map 2. There was a destructive fire in the Cumhuriyet district which burned up nearly the entire neighborhood in 1874. The neighborhood was reconstructed with a grid-iron plan following the fire [4]. The streetscapes in the Turkish side are composed of very organic and intrinsic quality. The traditional buildings are made of masonry and timber frame structures. There are slight differences in architectural styles between the Turkish and Greek neighborhoods. The Greek Houses have basements where the kitchen, bathroom and laundry are located. The windows are high and wide with shutters. Upper floors are made of timber, with high windows and balconies, different from the Turkish houses. Many houses have extensions with high walls called anexes (maaza) used for vine production and storage for winter supplies [5]. In the Turkish Neighborhood, the basement is of higher floors with narrow window openings, which are used for storage and gizzard. In the houses there are closets, a small bathing area, guslhane (a small niche suitable for bathing in the traditional housing), and timber ceilings. In the countryside the vineyard houses are located to meet the

needs of the agricultural production. The rooms are composed of kitchen and barn. The two story houses are called tower (kule), and one story is called dam type. Except for the renovated buildings apt to its original function, some of the vineyard houses are used for vacation homes.
Conservation planning efforts
In Turkey, the first enactments for preservation appeared in the 19th century with regulations concerning old monuments. In the modern times, the 1973 Law on Old Monuments was preceded by the 1983, Law on the Conservation of Cultural and Natural Beings (Law of no. 2863). The law provoked the development of a substantial legislation further supported by National Parks and Environment, and international charters further enlarged the content of conservation [6]. The first planning efforts of Bozcaada were done by the Urban Planning Department of Bank of Provinces (ller Bankas) and approved by the Supreme Council of Immobile Historical Assests [4]. With this plan, the entire island was designated as natural conservation site, traditional urban fabric was preserved and a limited area was designated for new development. The second Conservation Plan of Bozcaada was developed again by the Urban Planning Department of ller Bankas in 1994. A new effort for conservation plan has been started as the result of the decision to end this plan and a new conservation plan needs to be developed by the anakkale Regional Conservation Council. The financial resource for the planning efforts is provided by the Contribution Fund for Conservation of the Immobile Cultural Assets of the Immobile Cultural Assets, (law 2863, article 12) from the l zel daresi (Provinces Special Administration) and Bozcaada Municipality provided a start to process of the Conservation Plan development. The new planning is expected to come into effect soon. The public authority have made the decision that the Island was under conservation and by doing this, the island was prevented from the massive construction of vacation homes flourished in the coastline of the Nation. However, there is controversy that, although the the necropol area and its surroundings, are designated First degree Archeological Site, as one can see easily in the Map 2, that the public houses have been built for the state officials within the immediate surroundings of necropol area. The size and architectural features of the buildings do not fit the traditional fabric; in addition they have a damaging effect of the unique silhoutte of the Island. In the dwelling area of the Island, there are nine registered monumental structures (including historical mosques, church, fountains, cemeteries and Bozcaada Castle), and 134 registered civil architectural buildings can be found.
Tenedos-Bozcaada: identity and visioning of the settlement
In the academic circle, the rapid urbanization and construction that have taken place in the country very rapidly and most of the time illegally, creating very similar, uniform settlements, cities without an identity, is one of the mainly discussed and agreed topics. It is hard to say that the protection of the rich
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historical culture and making it available for the future generations is well executed. Cultural heritage in the Turkish context is not simply for public good, but it is often a base for conflict. When, one talks about the identity of a settlement or a living environment, it should be understood that the residents of those cities or environment refer to the intrinsic qualities that they think the city possesses, a kind of idealization constituted around the shared values, or a bulk of objectives [7]. This kind of evaluation bears some potential to project the future around an ideal at the societal level. A construction of identity around a common will makes it societal instead individualistic. This kind of projection bears different thinking and assessments, with this respect it is intersubjective citizens can make sacrifice as long as they ascribe values to their living environment. The elements that constitute a settlements identity are not limited solely to physical environment or natural environment. Experiences, memories, social relations transferred by generation to the new comers, as well as private memory walks and personal retreats, should be taken into consideration as identity elements. The identity elements are constituted in time. However it is not static; it has been subject to change in history and will be a subject to change in the future. How the identity will be constructed process or how it will be get into touch within the planning-design process, is vital, especially in the cultural heritage issue. In this part of the study, in-depth interviews were done with the Islanders and Statesmen of different administrative institutions. There is somehow integral integrity by looking at the definitions of the Islanders. Almost all the participants in this study stressed the importance of the viticulture for the Island. The question what are the main components which give the Island its intrinsic quality has been answered by the majority as the vineyards. Islands wines, its high quality grapes, are the complimentary attributes which creates a coherent unity for the Islanders. The sea, the shoreline and how the wind manipulates the rhythm of the daily life are the qualities mentioned so oftenly. The streetscapes, its vernacular architecture, mosques, church and mostly demolished windmills give the character to the intrinsic siluettes of the Island on approach from the mainland. Another point that draws attention is that people from different ethnic groups and religions living together in peace. The identity elements that set aside Bozcaada from other settlements are rooted on the social life and culture of Turkish-Greek societies and togetherness.The culture of two different societies living together must have played a role as some respondents point out that there are single women from all ages who live in the Island feel very comfortable and safe, and foreigners who settled here feel at home and not as foreigners. The responses to the question of How would you like to see the Island in the future? are grouped in two categories: (1) It is emphasized that the Island with well-preserved natural and cultural features, a unique island in the world, or an island as a model. (2) Responses of mostly the Islanders who were born there As it was in my childhood, Together with the people whom we used to live with and a wish to preserve the society of two different cultureswhich are unique to this Island.
Social cohesion
In the data set, we have information of the 40 households and 120 people. The questionnaires were distributed on March 21-29, 2011 and the sampling is five (5) per cent of the census population of Bozcaada. To cover all the settlement area, all the questionnaires were taken from almost every street and houses were chosen randomly. The two areas are of importance for the social cohesion: (1) welfare indicators (education, employment, housing), (2) Ethnicity, immigration, and belonging. The data set contains the information of the 120 persons. The average size of the household is 3 (three). Education as the basic component of the cultural capital and high level of education can be taken as the fundamental in the integration of the social and economic sphere. In this vein, the level of education is quite high in Bozcaada that 40 per cent of the population have high school and university degree. 53 per cent of the population work actively and wage earner is quite high whereas working for the family is the highest, which has to be interpreted with the type of the production (Table 1). Income distribution has shown that lowest income quintile is higher, a 28.6 per cent (Table 2). With the lowest and second lowest income quintiles, a 39 per cent of population have lower income, however, midincome, fourt and top income quintiles in total have reached a 61 per cent. The top income group is 4.4 times more than lowest income group. The income distribution has shown slightly an equal distribution among the quintiles and more than the absolute average households income is high in Bozcaada. This is due to the mix-economy and availability of job in the Island. The data obtained from the Governership (kaymakamlk) of Bozcaada shows that there is fairly low level of poverty in Bozcaada as compare the rest of the nation. The demand for obtaining health coverage under the states provision for the poor people (green card) is very low in the Island. For the winter time, the number of demand for charcoal is hardly for 60 people. The place of origin reveals that more than half of the population was born in Bozcaada (54.6 per cent) whereas some of the population was born in the town (Bayrami) in vicinity of the Island (28.6 per cent) (Table 2). The birth place of the population from the metropolitan urban center and Istanbul is quite high (4.2 and 5.9 per cent) and indicates the level of urbanization in the Island. Table 1:
Count
Socio-economic structure (1).

Count Count
No school completed Primary Sch. Secondary schooling High school University High degree Total
12 43 10 29 19 2 115
% 10.4 Wage earner % 37.4 Causal earner Self % 8.7 employed % 25.2 *U.F.W % 16.5 % 1.7 0 Apprentice Total
18 3 2 39 1 63
% 28.6 Child rearing % % 4.8 3.2 Retired Housewife Seeking job Not wanting to work Elder Total
7 6 6 1 3 11 34
% % % % % %
20.6 17.6 17.6 2.9 8.8 32.4 100
% 61.9 % 1.6
% 100
*U.F.W, unremunerated family workers.
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Table 2:
Income Quintiles (20 %) Count Percent Lowest 8 28.6 2. lowest 3 10.7 Mid 6 21.4 Fourth 6 21.4 Top 5 17.9 Total 28 100
Socio-economic structure (2).

Places of Birth Count Bozcaada 65 Istanbul 7 Metropolitan city** 5 City 7 T.A.M.R* 34 Abroad 1 Total 119 Percent 54.6 5.9 4.2 5.9 28.6 0.8 100 Ownership status of the House Count Percent Tenant 11 27.5 Tenure 26 65 Not paid 3 7.5 (belongs to the family) Total 40 100
*Town in Aegean-Marmara Region./ ** A city, which has a population more than a million is taken as the metropoliten city.
For the information about the ethnicity, the mother tongue is taken and 87.5 per cent of the population is Turkish and 7.5 per cent Greek, and 5 per cent another ethnicity. The absolute majority of the population feel him/herself as part of Bozcaada and there is almost no sign of exclusion or relion xenophopia against other relions or ethinicty in the Island in general (Table 3). The information provided by the respondents reveals that there is slightly coherent and peaceful community life in the Island. However, underneath the questionnairies, though not heavily, there is continued existence of frictions between different groups. The Islanders are the groups of many different background and places. The first is the native Islanders, who have been living in Bozcaada for generations, the second, the Istanbulites who are mainly the owner of the hotels as well as an intellectual group who discovered the island when the transportation was underdeveloped and the travel to the Island was hard, and lived on the Island long enough to consider themselves as the Islanders. The last group are the workers who come mainly from the mainland in the vicinity of town of Bayrami, who work hard and do almost all kinds of labour and the most despised among the entire group. Table 3:
I Agreed partially Strongly disagree Total 2 38 40 % 5.0 95.0 100
Inclusion, exclusion and belonging.

II Agreed partially Disagreed Strongly disagreed Total 2 1 37 40 % 5.0 2.5 92.5 100 Yes No Total III 27 6 33 % 81.8 18.2 100
I I cannot accept being neighborly with someone out of my religion, II I cannot make shopping from someone out of my religion. III I feel myself belonging to Bozcaada
Legal and administrative structure
Bozcaadas municipality does not have sufficient number of technical staff (an architect and a map tecnician) and expertise to handle all those excessive public work and heritage issues. The main complaints in part of the municipality can be summarised as; (1) the bureaucracy and all kinds of paperworks are extremely painfull, exhausting and time consuming; (2) The plans decisions, or local demand sometimes contradict with the anakkale Regional Conservation Committees decisions or remarks; (3) The committee holds a meeting once a year and it is not sufficient to solve the deep problems of the Island.

Since the conservation is part of the public domain, tax exemption is provided for the property owners whose property has been declared of historical value and the contribution margin for the individual users and for the municipalities who administer conservation areas has been increased and diversified New ways of exchanging the privately owned historical property with government owned nonhistorical property have been introduced. However, this study has shown limited benefits of the new regulations and organizations. In the interviews, the municipality officials have not shown substantial individual effort to tap into the Ministry of Tourism and Cultures Contribution to Conservation Fund. Another handicap is the prolonged delay for the payment of the funds, since the Ministry withholds the payments until the conservation project is established or after the project is completed. This process, with the added layer of painful bureaucracy, usually discourages lower-income or mid-low-income groups enabling only the groups with sustainable financial reserve to follow through. Public administration is aware of foreign funds and the District Governor together with Municipality has exploited the European Union Fund for constructing a kindergarten to support preschool education. For the international cooperation the municipality has created a friendship link with two European cities, Valu Lui Traian in Romania and Gols in Austrias. Despite all the negative points, it would be unfair to ignore that the institutional structuration of the legal and administrative capacity has reached some maturity, such as the Regional Conservation Committee which now operates country wide and KUDEP (Conservation, Implementation and Supervision Bureu) which operates under the direction of town municipalitiesgovernorship and provides support to the local conservation departments and targets to increase the productivity of the conservation efforts. The study area of regional conservation committee encompasses world famous antique towns (Troia), and historical areas that witnessed the countrys painful war towards the independence leading to the founding of the Turkish Republic (anakkale-Gallipoli War). The committees personel and equipments are limited and not adequate handling this vast areas needs. In the committees jurisdiction, there are 425 different sites in total and they have just three archaeologists, two urban planners, one architect and one map engineer. The work is hard and bureaucracy slows down the process enormously. The technical personnel within the town municipality and within the conservation establishments need to be educated and their numbers should be increased to meet the work load.
Economic sustainability: viticulture and wine production
The Island appears to have enjoyed its most prosperous times from the late Archaic to the end of the Hellenistic period. It was during this prosperious period that Tenedos mints its coin depicting bunch of grapes as well as wine-related artifacts such as kantharoi and amphorae [1, 8]. Since the Archaic times, the viticulture and winemaking has been the Islands main cultural trait more than being the economic activity. The vineyards occupy one third of the Island
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(1185 ha) and 80% of the agricultural land (1478 ha). Out of total 5 million vine stock, 1600 tons of grapes for table consumption and 3900 tons of grapes for wine making are cultivated. There are wine grapes unique to Bozcaada like Karasakz (Kuntra), Altnba (Vasilaki) and Karalahna. During the latest years, there has been a move towards growing wine grapes to make French style wines, mainly Cabernet Sauvignon, Shordone, Merlot and Gamei [5]. In the Island, until the 1925s, the wine production was in the hands of the Greek population. After the Island became part of the Turkish Republic, the Greeks who stayed, taught the Turks wine making [9]. After the 1956, better use of machinery made it possible for more wine production and the Islands wine economy started growing. The same year, The Bozcaada Wine Making Inc. was established. Between the years of 1960-1980, there were small and big 13 wine production plants. In 1980s, the wine production stalled and many production plants went out of business. The main reason for the decline in viticulture was the high ratio of taxes which had caused many businesses to go bankrupt [9]. After 2001, the taxes have been brought down to 48 per cent. Also, in 1998, the State offered support to the Islands biggest three producers and modernized the equipment and machinery which resulted in better quality wine production. With the introduction of new grape varieties, the Islands wine production seems to have improved in recent years. The Islands producers opened up their own wine bars in 1999. Currently, there are five wine producers and two more will come in the near future. The Agricultural Development Cooperative established in 1974, has 397 members directly working with the wine industry. However, even though there are some improvements, wine producers still have a lot of hardship and they complained about the lessening State support and losing the vineyards to development. Since the profit margin is low, some of the producers sold their lands to be used as vacation home sites. The information that I received from the Bozcaada Province Department of Agriculture supports the decline in vineyards (Table 4). The building permits for small capacity housing in vineyards approved by the Regional Conservation Committe posses a big danger for the Islands wine production. Most of the owners of these houses do not take care of the vines or simply they convert the gardens for other use. These so-called authentic houses are used only for few months during summer and most are fenced in with concerete walls which do not fit the Islands landscaping. Other factors that contribute to the decline seem to be the lack of adequate State subsidy, increasing cost of fuel, fertilizers and especially the recently increased Special Consumption Tax. Against all odds, the Islanders have been fighting to keep the viticulture alive as part of the Islands lifestyle Table 4:
Years
Statistics of the agricultural sector.

Annual product (tons) 4500 2000 3400 5000
No. of farmers No. of Cultivation Areas (viticulture) Fishermen (ha.) 210 35 1800 1980 367 52 1100 1990 367 40 1100 2000 397 29 1200 2010 Source: Bozcaada Province Department of Agriculture (Bozcaada Kaymakaml).

and culture. The increasing interest in wine culture across the country is an encouraging sign. Many of the Islands wine producers have been actively searching for international markets since the State taxes are still very high.
10 Tourism
The establishment of a regular ferry boat service from the mainland in 1996, has led to an increase in Islands tourism and to accomodate the increased number of visitors, new motels, guest houses and restaurants opened up. Today, the tourism plays an active role in Islands economy. The natural beauty of its bays, and coastal line, clean beaches and the lifestyle attract many tourists to the Island. However, among all, one of the main factors that increased the touristic activities is the Islands vineyards and wines [10]. According to the data from Bozcaada Tourism Office (BOZTID), the Island has the capacity of 2500 beds and 118 registered contractors currently function in the tourism sector. There are also guest houses run by families which can provide up to 1000 bed capacity. There has been also an increase in the numbers of foreign visitors. This may be due to the fact that the Conde Nast travel magazines Reader Choice Awards honored Bozcaada as the second most beautiful island in the world [11]. The Islands climate and the temperature of the sea water allow a shorter summer tourism season compared to the other touristic areas of in the country. The best months to visit for enjoying the sea and sun are June, July and August. The Islands population go up in parallel to the touristic activities [12]. This seasonal increase brings its challenges. There is limited parking in the Island but the increasing number of cars coming in, cause long traffic jams along with the noise and dust. The 4-5 hours of waiting at the ferry station has been somewhat reduced due to new reservation system. The Islands underground resources are very limited and the water capacity is naturally low [12]. Most of the water to the Island is provided from anakkale via an undersea pipeline. The tourism officials stated that currently most of the touristic activities in the Island are handled without a long term plan, rather by concentrating on shortterm profit. The natural attraction that lure the visitors in, seem to be in dire danger of being spoiled. The increasing number of hotels and motels seem to be damaging the authentic nature of the Island but attracting more visitors. The officials also stated the fact that they have been having hard time finding qualified employees who are trained for tourism sector [13]. Since most of the Island is under protection plan, there are no permits for new development and this brings problem of finding rentals for the workers. About 75% of the touristic facilities are run by the Islanders and the guest houses are operated wholly by the families who live in the Island. Our conversations with the tourism officials also revealed different views for the future of Islands tourism. We discovered that there is a trend to target the upscale visitors with money. There seems to be less support for short-staying tourists and tour busses that bring in the daily visitors [13]. However, some of the Islands big hotel operators seem to equate the high quality with high priced and they seem to be in an effort to frame Bozcaada within their liking and standards. Instead of advertising for the Islands cultural
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heritage and natural quality, they seem to take the easy route of advertising the Island as the new rising star. There has been on-going debate about the danger of this type advertisement and the fear that Bozcaada may one day become one of the many touristic places who have lost their popularity. The debates reveal that so far there has not been a consensus on how to attact the issue.
11 Fishing
Bozcaada lies on one of the major fish migration route; therefore, fishing is a vital part of the Islands economy. During the migration season, many boats, small and big, arrive at the Island for fishing. The Island is also rich with year round seafood. The local fishing is mainly done in small scale. Currently 48 fishing boats and 120 professional fishermen are registered with the port authority. In the interview with the district governor (Kaymakam), it was told that the fishing industry has been lagging behind the viticulture and the tourism and there has been a decline in the numbers of fishermen. The declining fish population during the recent years seems to have increased the stress on the fishing sector. One good thing is that increasing tourism activity in the Island seems to be creating a demand for the locally caught seafood, especially for the Islands famous calamari and sea urchin.
12 Conclusion
A new planning rhetoric, an integrated conservation approach, where the identity of the urban areas is taken into consideration and where the actors that shape the urban space and affected by being shaped, are included in the decision making process is needed. A conservation planning for the future of Bozcaada Island must be developed by the participatory practices drawn in line with the decisions made locally, and it must be continuously re-arranged around the mechanism to manage the process, rather than being a control instrument of the central administration. This study reveals that, in Bozcaada, different groups, which are of different interests and expectations, fight for the material resources and societal meaning. This struggle has to be comprehended as understanding of each other, making compromises, persuasion, withdrawal, as part of the relentless process for producing creative new ideas around a common ideal, leading to new solutions in the protection of cultural heritage, and making it available for the future generation. The issues must be put forward by trying to understand the dynamics that create the conflict and tension after the identification of targets leading up to grounding the long-term benefit and the vision shared by the majority. The short-term arrangements will undoubtedly be decided by the economic concerns. If the main preoccupation is to create a benefit for all that goes beyond the instant economic return, a kind of new mechanism that thinks for itself may be an option. This new mechanism has to be constituted in a horizontal fashion in which all the bodies, organizations, agencies with different responsibilities and functions come together.

In the limited scope of this study I detected a desire in the Islanders to take the responsibility for their own affairs through increased local involvement of the community voluntarily. The newly constituted street talks, the affairs to publish a local newspaper and constant discussions about their local problems, and the future of the Island both in terms of tourism, viticulture and wine production, the existence of high awareness and public interest by the officals and civil society organisations are evidences. They are aware of the interdependence of the each sector to another, and that the problem in one sector is deeply affected the other. The tourism sector is aware of the fact that the overuse of the resources and the deterioriation of the landscape will negatively affect their standing in the long run. The end of viticulture will cut off the essence of the place. For the viniculture and wine production, the Islanders easily understand that the existence of tourism creates a new opportunity, a mix economy for the Island. Tourism is very attractive for the young generation who generally are not willing to stay in the Island long. For those, who are occupied in the agricultural sector that the existence of tourism can create a kind of demand and a consciousness about their products. The promotion of the Islands outstanding history and cultural heritage will open new opportunities; create a kind of global partnership and appreciation even at the world level.
References
[1] Takaolu, T. & Bamyac, A. O., Continuity and Change in Rural Land Use on Tenedos/Bozcaada. Ethnoarchaeological Investigations in Rural Anatolia, ed. T. Takaolu, Istanbul: Ege Yaynevi, pp. 115-137, 2005. [2] Bamyac, A. O., Antik Dnem Denizciliinde Tenedos/Bozcaada: Kysal Kullanm ve Ticaret (Tenedos/ Bozcaada, Maritime in the Antiquity: Coastal use and commerce), unpublished Msc thesis, Onsekiz Mart niversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstits Arkeoloji Anabilim Dal, anakkale, pp. 171, 2006. [3] Orhonlu, C., Bozcaadada Trk Eserleri ve Kitabeleri (Turkish Achievement and Inscription in Bozcaada), Trk Kltr, 86, pp.139-149, 1969. [4] ller Bankas mar Planlama Daire Bakanl (Bank of Provinces, Urban Planning Department, Bozcaada- anakkale, a Planning Report of the Conservation Plan of Bozcaada), 1992 [5] TC. Bozcaada Kaymakaml (Turkish Republic of Governership of Bozcaada) Web Site, Bozcaada-anakkale, www.bozcaada.gov.tr [6] Mardan, E. Tanmaz Kltr ve Tabiat Varlklarn Koruma Mevzuatnn Geliimi ve Yargsal Denetim (Evolution of the Legal Aspects of the Immobile Cultural and Natural Properties and Juristic Control), Mekn Planlama ve Yarg Denetimi, eds: M. Ersoy & H..Keskinok, Yarg Yaynevi, Ankara, pp. 156-199, 2000. [7] Tekeli, ., Bir Kentin Kimlii zerine Dnceler (Opions on the Identity of a City), Kent Planlamas Konumalar, T.M.M.O.B publishing, Ankara, pp. 79-88, 1991.
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[8] Takaolu, T. & Bamyac, A. O., Antik ada Bozcaada (Tenedos) (Tenedos- Bozcaada in the Antiquity), anakkale li Deerleri Sempozyumu (Symposium on the Assets of anakkale Provinces), anakkale Onsekiz Mart niversitesi, pp. 71-82, 2008. [9] Durmu, H., Bozcaadann Sosyoekonomik Yaps ve Kltr, unpublished Msc Thesis, Osmangazi niversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstits, pp. 202, 2006. [10] Ayhan Kaptan, ., zgn Peyzaj Karakteristiklerine Sahip Mekanlara Ynelik Bir Peyzaj Planlama Ynteminin Ortaya Konulmas Bozcaada rnei (Developing A Landscape Planning Approach For The Areas Having Unique Landscape Characteristic: The Case of Bozcaada), unpublished Phd. Thesis, Ege niversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstits, pp. 159, 2007 [11] Cond Nast Traveler: 2010 Readers Choice Awards, http:// www.concierge.com/tools/travelawards/readerschoice/islands [12] Kaptan Ayhan, ., Bozcaadada Turizm Hareketlerinin Geliimine Yerel Halkn Yaklam zerine Bir Aratrma (The Approach of the Local Residents Towards the Developent of the Tourism Activities in Bozcaada), An Investigation anakkale li Deerleri Sempozyumu (Symposium on the Assets of anakkale Provinces), anakkale Onsekiz Mart niversitesi, pp.17-23, 2008. [13] Adaposta, Local Newspaper, Nisan-Ekim 2009, http://www.adaposta.com/ Index.php/ [14] zgnl, N. Alaatda Yaam (A life in Alaat), Ege Mimarlk, pp. 18-25, Ocak (January) 2010.
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Literary tourism as a promoter of cultural heritage

L. Ghetau & L. V. Esanu
Faculty of Geography and Geology, Iasi University, Romania
Abstract
In the recent past, Government interest toward conserving and promoting Romanian cultural heritage has visibly increased. National authorities are trying to uphold it as a single entity through different measures like cultural events and touristic activities. The drawback to this otherwise positive course of action is that this process cannot oversee or offer an efficient degree of protection and an even exposure to all types of cultural objectives. None the less, promoting cultural heritage holds top priority, but at the same time it is equally important that there are no hasty measures taken and an appropriate exposure of all its facets is granted. A more fitting solution for accomplishing the task at hand would be to first divide Romanias cultural objectives in distinct groups, in this case literature, and attach a suitable form of tourism dedicated to its requirements. In order to meet these terms a series of conditions must be taken into consideration. Literatures relationship with tourism has already been consecrated through Literary Tourism, but this marriage of worlds has yet to be described from a geographical perspective. In order to validate this point of view Romanias literary icons have been brought up because of their crucial role in shaping the countrys image and people. This study would be responsible of drawing attention to a new form of tourism for Romania; one which focuses on promoting aspects and personalities form the literary world. Working with specialised forms of tourism represents a mature and efficient approach toward the sustainable promotion of a destinations cultural heritage. Keywords: cultural heritage, literary icons, tourism, conservation, sustainability.
1 Introduction
Writing and travel have represented one of the greatest hobbies of civilized man, the two playing an important role in shaping and defining ones intellect by first broadening his horizon of the World. Even though their original purpose has not yet been fully elucidated, somewhere along the way, literature and travel have common purposes; both answering mans need to escape the daily routine of life. It is impossible for one who discovers literature or travel not to come across the other at some point in his journey. Through free will and most of all through imagination the two were joined together forming what is known today as literary tourism. A fusion of two worlds, seemingly so far apart but at the same time so close to each other, acting as an extension of mans understating process regarding not only himself but also what surrounds him. Literary tourism originated in the United Kingdom making its presence felt around the second part of the eighteenth century and well into the early beginning of the nineteenth century when it started to be seen as a very popular form of travel for the youth of that time. Throughout time the phenomenon spread quite rapidly to other parts of Europe and even to Russia and the United States of America capturing the attention not only of enthusiast readers of all ages, but also of the academic world. Scholars like Stephen Coan, Mike Robinson, Randy Malamud or Nicola J. Watson all rose to the challenge and over time elaborated numerous scientific articles and books regarding the importance or validity of literary tourism. And as with any other phenomenon that increases its popularity it started to attract both positive and negative feedback, some considering it to be the next step in the bonding process between a reader and the authors work while critics look at this form of travel as being a cheap appropriation. Although the opinions regarding literary tourisms utility are divided, one quality must not be overlooked; its potential for conservation and proper promotion of literary icons along with their associated destinations, aspects which overlap with the main task of the current paper. Literature is a form of spiritual travel, while tourism is the ink with which it is written. Using a geographical point of view the body text shall contain several chapters dedicated to properly placing this form of travel within the general context of the touristic phenomenon and to demonstrate its utility in the conservation process of a destinations cultural heritage by introducing it to a location which shows affinity toward literary tourism. For this study the earlier mentioned perspective is crucial because until this moment the subject of literary tourism has been discussed mainly from a sociological, literary or economic angle leaving aside the factor of spatiality. Not taking into consideration the final factor leaves this form of travel suspended to some degree, because without a proper understanding of its spatial
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patterns its purpose is only half uncovered. In the present situation geography does not act as another individual element brought into discussion, but rather as a bonding agent. One author, Stephen Coan, raises the subject of literatures spatial dimension and how it can influence tourism, in his book Read book, will travel, but the subject is not appropriately addressed from beginning to end lacking a geographers perspective. Another problem, but at a general level, regards the perception of literary tourism as two separate components in a relation where one influences the other, thus steering attention away from the more pressing issue of conserving cultural heritage. The joining of two or more terms does not always create a situation where one rises above the rest. Literary tourism represents an exception where its origins complement each other, even though the name that defines this activity is composed. This apparently odd match of words represents their affiliation to the unconventional touristic practices, a frequent characteristic among alternative forms of travel.
2 Theoretical framework
The purpose of an alternative form of travel is mainly to serve as an answer to the specific conservational needs of a particular category of objective that can be found within the ensemble of a destinations cultural heritage, representing an active instrument in any plan for sustainable development strategy. Understanding the semantics of the words used in naming these instruments and the meaning that results after their fusion symbolizes one of the essential first steps towards constructing an interdisciplinary theoretical background from which further progress can be made. Because of its quite fascinating and at the same time natural word association, literary tourism represents a topic that can also be placed within the same class of forms of travel like, dark tourism, urban questing or industrial archaeology; all drawing their names from the activities around which they revolve. The role of elaborating the names meaning is that it grants the opportunity of uncovering which are the scientific domains that can be implicated in the study and would best serve it. With literary tourism the aspect of deciphering its name was somewhat overlooked, studies concerning the current subject being focused mainly on sociological aspects. This approach is reflected in various works, like The Literary Tourist, Read book, will travel or The Value of Literary Tourism. Upon an inspection of their general structure on can observe a series of similarities concerning the phenomenons analysis; pinpointing the exact destination of origin, the time of its birth, types of objectives, tourists that fall under this category and also the motivation behind their journey. Even though different authors have complied a personalised portrait of the literary tourist and his destination of choice; one stands out in particular. In his work Read book, will travel Stephen Coan provides a very straight forward

distinction between the different types of visitors which show varied degrees of affinity toward this form o travel. The researcher mentions in his studies two distinct types of literary tourist, representing the extremities of this typology; in the first category he distinguishes the literary pilgrim being represented by the avid admirers and at the opposite part of his description there are those who choose to integrate into their vacation itinerary a destination related to what they have read in the past [1]. Based on this first distinction the author went on and elaborated his vision regarding the literary tourist, establishing what in particular motivates the target group to partake in this form of travel. From his studies Coan distinguishes that practitioners of literary tourism are drawn by all literary aspects concerning the text, author and even movie scripts [1]. Although the book brings to light very important issues concerning literary tourisms inner workings at the same time it limits itself at uncovering what is the tourists role is in this equation; thus proving its focus on a precise area of expertise, sociology. This attention toward a single perspective leaves numerous questions unanswered, some of them regarding crucial aspects like the spatial dimension of this phenomenon, where does it lie in the world of tourism or if it is capable of bringing socio-economical benefits. It is true that sociology lies at the heart of every situation where the human element is implicated but without analysing the pattern through which it spreads or by not giving an equal priority to any of the earlier questions, a study on tourism based on a solitary scientific perspective is destined to walk through the dark. Human geography brings a crucial element to studies on tourism, a sense of direction, which is not only done through written depiction, but also and most importantly through cartographical support; being represented by different types of specially designed maps which can embody a variety of aspects ranging from pinpointing the location of objectives to illustrating the migration pattern of visitors to and from the location of interest. These aspects coupled with the social viewpoint are able to reach out and correctly address queries as those above. The element of orientation provided by human geography, in this case, adds a considerable degree of precision and depth to the understanding process; usually definitions are able to sum up perfectly the different areas of expertise through which a subject has been approached. In a 2009 issue of The Chronicle of Higher Education, Randy Malamud provides a brief but favourable argument in which he states that literary tourism travel with a focus on historical locales connected to famous authors [2]. This short description can also serve as a definition for this alternative form of travel, from which it can be clearly seen that Malamud shares a similar perspective as Stephen Coan; both creating an image that partially taps the subject. A more complex definition, but still within the same lines as the previous examples has been provided by an online magazine called The Heart of New
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England which considers that literary tourism is a type of cultural tourism to places related to events or fictional characters in books. It also involves visiting places and areas related to the lives of the book authors [3]. As before, the current definition elucidates very important characteristics which none the less make up literary tourisms trademark, but at the same time it lacks a certain degree of precision and wholeness. Definitions can be seen as a summary for an entire theoretical framework which in several lines must be able to describe the main characteristics of a phenomenon but also address issues concerning placement within a vaster area of study and also a clear purpose. Taking into consideration the examples provided by the previous paragraphs along with a more composite approach, literary tourism represents a form of travel which resides under the category of alternative types of tourism, representing an instrument designed for the conservational purposes of a specific category of cultural heritage; in the current case objectives, locations, events related to different aspects of literature. Also, adding to the creation or consolidation of an areas cultural identity and playing a decisive role in its quest for sustainable development. The earlier definition serves as a multidisciplinary insight which manages to capture literary tourisms implication in the socio-economical scene and not just to present types of objectives or sites that are characteristic for this form of travel. Alternative forms of tourism, like literary tourism, represent the prime instruments responsible with the sustainable development of an areas cultural identity and preservation of its cultural heritage. Literary tourisms role increases exponentially when it comes to its implementation in a new area because it becomes one of the first steps taken by local authorities in the ongoing process of raising the communitys awareness regarding the importance of cultural heritage and their slow economical reorientation.
3 Iasi a cultural destination

Changing the economic profile of an urban environment can pose quite a challenging task even for the most experienced planners. The process requiring a well formulated vision based on the citys remaining assets and also the full support of its local community. The urban environments most likely to undergo this transformation are those which were once renowned for their economic profile based mainly on industrial activities. Western European cities like those of the United Kingdom have become models of efficiency through their capacity to transform former industrial icons as Liverpool, Leeds or Salford into veritable cultural destinations. Over time these examples have inspired other cities, which come from a similar background, to adopt similar initiatives based on sustainable

development principles in order to guarantee a bright future for their younger generation. An urban environment which is currently undergoing this slow process of economic reorientation is the city of Iasi, Romania. During the socialist regime Iasi was known nationally as one of the many greatly industrialized urban environments. But after 1989 these activities were abandoned because of the costly upkeep. The following time interval was spent by local officials assessing the alterations brought, by the forced insertion of industrial activities, to the urban landscape. Through the aid of its universities, different organizations like the Iasi 600 Foundation and the combined initiatives commenced by local authorities the city has been able to successfully promote its diverse types of cultural objectives (e.g. museums, churches, historical buildings etc.). In order to encourage the practice of different forms of cultural tourism annually various events are organised, each being dedicated to a distinct artistic sphere. Until now Iasi been the host of events such as the Cucteni 5000 Fair (promoting the traditional craft of pot making), the Doc Est Film Festival and Zilele Ludicului (a theatrical performance festival); all drawing annually important touristic flows. Literature and all related aspects also represent an important element in Iasis cultural heritage. Even though this fact has been upheld through different small events, like Copou parcul poeziei, Scriitori pe calea regal, Zidurile care vorbesc or Tramvaiul cu scriitori; they still lack the necessary visibility to impose a distinct shade and attract more significant flows of literary enthusiasts. Insuring that Iasis literary sphere is taken to a higher level of promotion without compromising its authenticity in favour of a short term lucrative strategy, a new form of management is required; represented through an instrument capable of balancing both aspects. The situation can be solved through a long term insertion plan of an alternative form of touristic management, literary tourism. By placing all events and cultural objectives, related to literature, underneath one identity then it creates a coherent facet which boosts the overall cultural image of the city. Diversifying and sustaining literary related activities in Iasi could represent a perfect opportunity to draw attention on existing monuments, memorial houses; representing the last direct link to many national educational breakthroughs. Within the citys urban limits numerous literary historical landmarks can be found, many of which have stood the test of time only to be slowly wiped away from the publics memory. Out of the wide variety of objectives seven have been chosen in order to highlight through a brief description their decisive influence that theyve had on the countrys history and culture. The Dosoftei Memorial House was built by Dosoftei in the second half of the 17th century; after the construction process was finalized the owner installed the second printing press in all of Modova. Here he printed the following religious
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books: Liturghia (1679), Psaltirea de-neles (1680), Viaa i petrecerea sfinilor (16821686). Between the years 1966 1969 the building was renovated and in 1970 it served as an extension for the Museum of Romanian Literature hosting the Old Literature display, keeping safe in its cases several important artefacts like a Slavic manuscript dating back from the 14th century, a Liturghier which was printed by Macarie in the year 1508 (the first ever Romanian printed document) and also a life-size replica of Dosofteis printing press and many other religious paintings which date back from the 16th and 18th century [4]. The Mihail Sadoveanu Memorial House was originally built by Mihail Koglniceanu in the year 1842 with craftsmen brought over from Italy. In 1867 because of financial problems Kogalniceanu was forced to sell the building. After 51 years the house was bought by Mihail Sadoveanu and his brother. Before moving to Bucharest in 1936 the famous author will have written here over 35 books, period which proved to be his most prosperous; leaving behind masterpieces such as: Hanul Ancutei (1928), Zodia Cancerului (1929), Baltagul (1930) and many others. After Sadoveanu left for Bucharest the famous Romanian musician George Enescu lived in the beautiful home for about two years. And in 1980 the building was declared the Mihail Sadoveanu Museum, also serving as the headquarters for the Institute of linguistics, literary history and folklore which belonged to the Academy and Institute for Anthropology [4]. The Gheorghe Asachi Memorial House, the building can be found in place of the Asachi School; here took place the first seminars on Romanian language. A famous sculptor from Bucharest called Gheorghe Lazar sculpted a statue in his honour which can be found today in front of the National Theatre [4]. The Vasile Pogor Memorial House was built in 1850 by Vasile Pogor, property which was later given to his son Vasile V. Pogor (publicist, poet, mayor of Iai and one of the five founding fathers of the Junimena Society). The building was also called the the house with bright windows because it was one of the first houses in Iai to have electricity. The house with bright windows served as a meeting place for the members of the Junimea Society [4]. The Ion Creang Memorial House. Ion Creang lived as an underlessor for the Vartic family. The house was located in a modest part of the town. In 1879 Ion Creang bought the house form the Vartic family and decorated it to suit his needs as an author. As homage to Creangs contribution to literature in 1918 his home became Romanias first Memorial Museum [4]. The Otilia Cazimir Memorial House. It was bought in 1908 by Gheorghe Gavrilescu, Alexandra Gavrilescus (the future Otilia Cazimir) father. She remained in this house, until her final days on Earth, greeting friends like: George Topirceanu, Mihai Codreanu, Petre Comarnescu, George Lesnea, Nicolae Labis, Florin Mihai Petrescu, Ion Istrati, Ana Maslea. On the 10th of June 1972 the house was declared a museum; visitors who cross its threshold can still find personal belongings which were found in the late authors possession [4].

The Mihail Codreanu Memorial House. The plot of land was give to the author in 1933 by the city council as a reward for all his activity as a writer and citizen. The house called Vila Sonet was finished in 1934 in accordance to the owners specifications. The famous writer lived here until the 23rd of October 1957 when he died. After his death the house served as a haven for authors who often dropped by for a glass of wine and a game of chess. Some of these visitors were famous authors like: Mihail Sadoveanu, George Toprceanu, Ionel Teodoreanu, Demostene Botez, Otilia Cazimir. Because of their frequent visits the Villa Sonet became known throughout the country as being the meeting place for all of Romanias bohemian society, numerous literary debates being held there. Today the Vila Sonet and all the late authors possessions are being guarded by the two bronze bulldogs placed at the houses entrance [5]. Another factor for which these specific objectives were chosen was their spatial positioning and arrangement within the citys urban boundaries. This does not only represent an advantage when organising the itinerary of a guided tour but the objectives can be seen as a source for the redenomination of neighbouring businesses and attraction of potential investments. By attracting visitors to the proposed locations, business owners could benefit from this impulse and slowly adapt their economic activities to match with the objectives theme. Understanding the importance of matching the surrounding area to the objectives topic helps raze the degree of emotional impact on visitors, also prolonging the feeling of authenticity. Encouraging this type of spatial accord would not only enforce a truly sustainable area within the city but would also set the foundation for a project where the entire urban area could be divided based on the type of touristic objectives found within their proximity. Thus by managing touristic objectives through a specialised form of tourism, such as literary tourism, would guarantee that they are well conserved and represent a significant asset in consolidating Iasis plan for a social, economical and cultural sustainable development.
4 Summary
Understanding the necessity of sustainable development and implementing specific strategies represents a crucial course of action that must to be adopted by local authorities when an urban environment is passing through a process of socio-economical reorientation. Cities like Iasi which are still looking to consolidate their external image as cultural destinations must look toward alternative forms of tourism in order to obtain an even exposure for each type of objective. Benefiting from a rich history Iasi will be able to incorporate literary tourism into its already growing ensemble of alternative forms of tourism, taking it closer to the standards of sustainability set by other international cultural destinations.
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Pre-existing cultural events, like Tramvaiul cu scriitori, dedicated to celebrating past and contemporary literary icons demonstrates that the citys affinity and preoccupation toward keeping its traditions alive is still present. For this study case the insertion of literary tourism as a symbol of touristic management would grant local officials the possibility of discovering more efficient methods of conservation and exposure through international partnerships with other cultural destinations which have shown determination and progress in identifying themselves through alternative forms of travel. By adopting a divide et impera approach along with a well formulated long term development strategy Iasi shall be able to consolidate its image among other already existing cultural destinations.
References
[1] Read book, will travel by Stephen Coan http://www.literarytourism.co.za/index.php?option=com_content& task=view&id=85&Itemid=42 [2] The Value of Literary Tourism by Jennifer M. Eisenlau http://www.transitionsabroad.com/listings/study/articles/study-abroad-thevalue-of-literary-tourism.shtml [3] Online magazine The Heart of New England http://www.theheartofnewengland.com/travel/nh/literary-tourism.html [4] Romanian Memorial Houses http://museum.ici.ro/moldova/Iai/romanian/fmuzeu.htm [5] 2005, Plan de amenajare a teritoriului metropolitan Iai, S.C. HABITAT PROIECT S.A., Iai
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The soundscape of cities: a new layer in city renewal

M. Leus
Department of Design Sciences, Artesis University College Antwerp, Belgium
Abstract
The conservation of historical heritage and the development of public spaces are important issues for the liveability of cities and everyday life. Yet, spatial qualities are rarely designed and evaluated as a combination of senses. Public spaces manifest themselves not only in a visual but also in an acoustic way. Next to the visual aspect of urban spaces, sounds and silence are also indicators of the environmental layout. A sonic urbanity opens a perspective for a better policy with regard to sensorial aspects in design and management of public spaces. The study of the soundscape of cities is an ear-opening for the multi-sensory qualities of semi-public spaces. Research in which the soundscape is integrated, helps to enhance and emphasize the different components and the underlying historical layers of the city and stimulates the imagination in the construction of narrative tales. The northern part of the city centre of Antwerp, a remarkable cultural heritage site, is used as a case study to examine different concepts and methods for the implementation of sound in urban development. The research of soundscape in urban planning and heritage management of cultural sites opens up perspectives to create new design paradigms for public spaces. Keywords: soundscape, cultural heritage, experience, sonic concepts, notation tools, communication.
1 Introduction
The soundscape of a city is generally marked as something trivial. As a result of contemporary technological noise pollution, urban sounds are often defined as unwanted. Sound pollution, an important form of discomfort, has a negative

influence on the quality of life in urban public spaces. Sound is rarely used as a positive, informative or explorative social perception instrument within the existing urban planning and heritage management. The experience of urban public spaces by walking has been studied by several urban researchers but their attention has been mainly focused on the visual aspects or the aesthetic dimension of the spaces [14]. Urban designers show a passive acceptance of the aural sound decor. Sound is rarely considered as having a potential contribution in tackling conceptual strategies for the revitalization of urban public spaces [5]. Nevertheless, the experience of the spatial qualities of public spaces is often evaluated by users of these spaces as a combination of senses [6, 7]. Due to the static image of urban spaces in contrast to the soundscape which occurs as a dynamic process, consisting of changeable sound waves between the sources and the listener, the urban soundscape is often regarded as complex. The soundscape is four-dimensional and not limited to the material borders of a space; sounds create a kind of an immersive experience space. As Neuhoff pointed out, many cumulative aspects of different sounds influence each other and changes in one variable may influence the perception of changes in another variable. Changes in any of these perceptual dimensions can influence perception of changes in the others [8]. Moreover, the experience of soundscape holds different meanings for different people, depending on their cultural and social background, education and previous experience [9]. Although cultural heritage sites offer a valuable contribution towards creating a sustainable environment within the vulnerable continuity of the urban story, sound and heritage, both in their tangible and intangible dimensions, are embodiments of urban places that open space for interpretation. Both project fragments of urbanity and weave them into a scenario by the experience for inhabitants and visitors. Yet, the selection of world heritage sites never demands specific acoustic criteria. Different heritage charters and documents developed at the international level in ICOMOS and UNESCO dont pay special attention to sound as an inherent value of cultural heritage which enhances the experience and interpretation of the historic site. Acoustic research in relation to urban design requires not only a problemsolving, but also a problem-defining attitude. The most important reason is that planners are lacking an adequate design vocabulary such as aural evocative concepts and tools to integrate an acoustic consciousness in the design process of urban spaces [10]. Yet, communication on soundscape is limited to a conventional semantic language, directed to the physical measurements of urban noise and the description of psychoacoustic parameters [11]. These physical notations are only accessible for those who are trained to decode them. The main question is how a designer can be a composer of a sound performance of the urban space. Or should we rather conclude that a soundscape is an indefinite given that is impossible to orchestrate?
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2 Aim
The general objective of this research is to define aural concepts and tools which are applicable during the design process so that urban planners, heritage consultants and architects are able to create public spaces with more sensorial and particular aural qualities. On the one hand this will contribute to the increase of the accessibility of cultural heritage, while on the other hand it will alter the current theoretical urban soundscape discourse. In this way soundscape remains no longer restricted to a recommending theory about noise pollution, but steers applicable keys or strategies for the design process. Aural concepts as a design philosophy provide a base to underpin a deeper cultural meaning that stimulates the interpretation and the interaction with the user and the cultural heritage. Akin argues that conceptual variables are the schemata that provide the underlying order and structure for an aspect of an architectural design [12]. Aural concepts can be compared to the soundtrack of a movie, as they both evoke particular emotions and expresses messages [13]. To receive an adequate answer the following questions will be examined: - How can we map or record a soundscape of a public space as an expressive and significant tool for urban planners and architects? - How do we conceptualise the aural sense as a perceptual system and how will it be integrated in het design process of urban public spaces. - How can sounds influence the story of the place, in relation with the cultural heritage? Although these questions are not self-evident, they are pressure questions that we have to formulate in order to improve the urban fabric. After explaining the relationship between sound, urban public spaces and cultural heritage, we will also discuss the results of an experimental workshop which explores the sound experience of the urban public space by walking. Heritage is often just a piece of scenery on these walking routes, but sometimes it is the aim of the visit, or a framework for temporary stays, study or entertainment. The hypothesis which we want to test is if soundwalks are useful for the opening-up of cultural heritage.
3 Synergy between soundscape in urban public spaces and cultural heritage

The word soundscape covers two important dimensions, namely the relation, on the one hand, between the human being and the sound environment, or the ecological dimension, and the creation and conceptualization of the sound, or the design dimension, on the other hand [14]. Soundscape is also a striking indication of the genius loci, because the engagement and appreciation of a place depends on the sound the listeners can hear [15]. Emily Thompson discerns different ways of listening: A soundscapes cultural aspects incorporate scientific and aesthetic ways of listening, a listeners relationship to their environment, and the social circumstances that dictate who gets to hear what [16]. Engaged listening

integrates different aspects of the aural experience. It connects rational as well as emotional aspects. Sounds are the voices of meanings and act as a communicative medium that provides relations charged with emotional and psychological connotations [17]. In his book New City Spaces, Jan Gehl distinguishes different types of public spaces: main city squares, recreation squares, promenade squares, traffic squares and monumental squares [18]. From the vision of soundscapes, this typological classification of squares can be completed by adding restorative squares [19]. These tranquil or restorative environments are able to evoke contemplation and support reflective activities [20]. The acoustic quality of a public space largely determines the communication and the experience of sound as an extra source for intensifying and amplifying the visual image, and leads to a better understanding of the genius loci. Sound and silence can break through the artificial classification between tangible and intangible cultural heritage [21]. Mills stated that sound as a social agency can work as a trigger between sender and recipient [22]. Sound communicates information by making people alert and provokes a response of the recipient. Cultural heritage as well as soundscape is associative rather than linear and relative rather than absolute. Cultural heritage is emotionally charged and based on remembrance and the power to keep memories alive and can be regarded as a stimulus or as an obstacle for general spatial development. The sonic environment stipulates the possibilities for perception of the cultural heritage. Strong sound values can repress the weak historical values. However, when the soundscape matches with the heritage, the cultural values will be amplified. Especially in medieval cities and historic city centres, churches, monasteries, closed building blocks, or palazzos with courtyards have the quality to block the sounds of the city, creating silence. But also narrow streets, mineral surfaces, galleries with vaults, and traditional places, have a particular acoustic quality. In a positive way, church bells, live music performances, sounds of talking and walking people, sounds of activities in cafs, natural sounds such as singing birds and the rustling leaves, are all considered as the notes of positive soundscapes. Bringing the cultural heritage into urban soundscape-studies offers much potential and enables us to explore meanings.
4 Research methods
An experimental interdisciplinary workshop, set up at the public space lab of the Artesis University College of Antwerp, brought together experts from different domains such as architecture, urban planning, art-history and archaeology, in order to discuss their perspectives on the soundscape of urban public spaces. These participants were all experts in the architecture, heritage or urban design. 4.1 Introspection as a starting point The theoretical basis of quantitative acoustic research, which purely defines sound parameters, is too complex for urban planners to get a sufficient image of
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the acoustic experience of a public space [23, 24]. Therefore a qualitative research based on a subjective experimental field study for the survey and analysis of the context was conducted. Nakamura emphasizes that it is the subjective challenges and subjective skills, not objective ones that influence the quality of a persons experience [25]. In this workshop, the participants take the users role and empathize with the users experiences while walking in urban historical spaces. This approach is based on the idea that the designers personal experience is a key to acquiring insight, especially in a direct relation with acoustic research by design. Within this framework the acoustic and visual mapping of experiences as well as activities of the visitors and inhabitants plays an important role. 4.2 Soundwalks Because of the ephemeral nature of sound, it is essential for urban designers to think in time dimensions, and to take into account changes, movements and spatial events. Favole pointed out that public urban space is meant to be experienced by walking [26]. Walking as a tuned physical dialogue with the environment explores the experience of listening which offers a stronger sense of community or belonging [27, 28]. This reflects an affinity with our past. The exploration of soundwalks as developed by Schafer in the seventies is an important valuable tool for aural awareness [29, 30]. Soundwalks, active listening walks, lead to being engaged in the physical and sensory environment and affect the sense of time and place. Jrviluoma argued that Space is a system of places; a place is a space that is special through the meanings connected with it. When we move the places become activated and we enter into a dialogue [31]. Interpretation connects the sensorial experience with the conceptual idea of meaning [32, 33]. 4.3 A cultural perspective of modern storytelling in urban planning An interpretive historic research was implemented to report the findings in a narrative story [34]. Linda Groat and David Wang define an interpretive research as investigations into social, physical phenomena within complex contexts, with a view toward explaining those phenomena in narrative form and in a holistic way [35]. Especially cultural heritage can act as a mediator. Marc Childs explains that stories can inform and condition the design of places in multiple ways [36]. First of all, urban designers can curate the narratives in ways that support the designers' engagement with place stories; secondly this will activate cycle of interactions between stories and create formats for the inclusion of multiple designers and a diverse set of independent stories. 4.4 Philosophy of the workshop The first step focused on the qualitative survey and analysis of the context, the historical space. The objective was to obtain a deeper understanding of the relation between sound and diverse actors and aspects of the urban environment.

Therefore a multidimensional reading of space and its qualities was set out by a field study that observed the area in three ways: First the context mapping gathered information of spatial characteristics and the urban development. This spatial analysis resulted in several quick scans: the historical evolution, the cultural heritage, the morphology, functionality, mobility and open and green spaces These aspects were constantly tested in relation to each other. Secondly, a mapping of behaviour patterns of the visitors and the inhabitants was studied. Thirdly the experience of the urban spaces was incorporated in the research by using a visual and sound mapping. Appraisal of the soundscape depends mainly on the way it matches with the setting [37]. The second step was the study of the historical stratification of the city with special attention for the spatial and temporal links in order to support the interpretive research. The third step was the expression of the evaluation and interpretation of the current and future situation by means of a postcard with a slogan. Postcards are an attractive medium for communication because they provoke inspirational responses and in a certain way they act as a kind of emotional toolkit. The results of these analyses were translated in plans and sketches so that potential opportunities for new interpretations and development in relation with the vulnerability of the sites were visualized. For this purpose, an appropriate set of instruments was developed by means of the configuration of concepts and soundmapping tools that outline a clear description and typifying illustration of the sonic environment.
5 Case study: northern part of Antwerp, Belgium

Yin describes the importance of case studies as follows. In general, case studies are the preferred strategy when how or why questions are posed, when the investigator has little control over the events, and when the focus is on contemporary phenomena within some real-life context [38]. The soundscape of the northern part of the city Antwerp was recorded, mapped, assessed and formulated in action items that underpinned the concepts for a sonic urban heritage policy. The historical city centre of Antwerp, located on the right bank of the river Schelde, was indicated with the denominator from MAS, the new museum at the river, to the old central city market. This site is the most representative for the purpose of the survey because a preliminary masterplan revealed the existence of acoustically interesting spots in this area. In addition the site contains cultural heritage par excellence. 5.1 Notation tools The complexity of urban environments demands for new forms of mapping and depiction to enhance urban design and planning. Two notation schemes which are already familiar to the traditional toolkit of depicting urban spaces, represent the aural criteria and make the sonic phenomena communicable and duplicable to support the concepts design process [39].
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The first notation system shows different diagrams that depict the assessment of the sonic perception in relation to the context. The most important layers of urban experience, the static parameters and the dynamic or temporal sound parameters, were put into radial diagrams, a series of concentric rings associated with increasing intensity of experience. The quality of experience intensifies from the inside to the outside. This graphic notation is a subjective way of mapping the environmental qualities and depicts the relationship between the context, soundtrack and image of each public space. These diagrams give extra value to the acoustic categorization of urban public spaces.
Figure 1:
Square of St. Marys Cathedral: temporal sound parameters context parameters.
A second way of mapping is extracted from the visualization of musicology and geography. For the mapping of soundscape, a sonogram can act as a metaphor for the acoustic environment. A sonogram is a picture drawn by sounds; it articulates a representation of sound waves, which locates the data in frequency, amplitude and time dimensions [40]. This three-dimensional image looks like a geographic landscape and makes the invisible soundscape visible. The variety of a geographic landscape partly determines the attractiveness of it. The same applies to soundscapes where a mixture of sounds characterizes a specific area. This is comparable with the method of representation introduced by Chiambattista Nolli in his ichnographic plan of the city of Rome in 1748, where he accentuated the public spaces both inside and outside [41]. But this icon fails to evoke an impression of complex urban soundscapes, principally because the various sound sources and their loudness or pleasantness are difficult
Figure 2:
A sonogram, articulating the sounds of public spaces.

to distinguish. According to synesthetic, which explores the relationship between music and colours, expressing sounds in colours is complicated by personal experiences, which brings out moods and associations [42]. 5.2 Sonic concepts Four sonic concepts will highlight different strategies that can be applied to tackle soundscape in current and future plans for sustainable development of urban public spaces. Lucas and Romice emphasize that we should incorporate sound concepts integrally in the drawings that constitute the design process and not as an additional and separate process: This is due to the way in which drawing is a part of the thinking process itself and not a later representation of an already complete and static idea [43]. The results of the workshop reveal some emblematic themes which could be transferable to other cityscapes. Therefore we present them as possibly relevant acoustic themes in urban planning.
Figure 3:
Four sonic concepts: Thresholds, silence, Pac-Man, secrets.
5.2.1 Concept 1: Soundscape thresholds a transition between inside-outside The oldest historical part of the city around the Central Market is characterised by many public spaces such as the squares of many churches. In this quarter you can explore the music and the historical sounds of the city, such as the bells of the famous Gothic St. Mary Cathedral. The cultural heritage plays an important structuring role in the urban fabric of this quarter; it arranges the soundscape into a harmonious whole, with strong sound contrasts between different areas. In this area, the concept of thresholds or in-between spaces is very important, because thresholds mediate between inside and outside. Sound thresholds and passages in the public spaces are frequently crossed unconsciously [44]. The configuration and materialization of these transition zones offer a frame of significances on a morphological as well as on an acoustic level. Subtle interventions in pavements influence the sound and echo of footsteps and support the experience of entering a different scene. Each passage assumes the presence of a transformation, for example the transformation of a noisy to a quiet area. These are moments in the course of which the city as a whole gets its richness of articulation. The art of
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montage is determined by the significance of the image, the cultural heritage. The same principle can be applied to the sequences of aural fragments [45]. 5.2.2 Concept 2: The magic of secrets spaces The area, which borders to the river Schelde, is determined by the presence of water. The workshop revealed the importance of an intrinsically isolated urban space, an amazing network of underground waterways such as covered canals, rivulets and moats and a large pallet of both upper- and underground archaeological heritage. These waterways, dating back to the middle ages, functioned originally as lines of defence while later on they were used as an inland port and as water supply systems. Although covered with archways, these structures explain the structural morphology of the city of Antwerp in a secret way. These underground canals carry a tremendous symbolic meaning. Mystery intersects throughout the various civilizations that left their imprint. The canalhouse or Ruihuis, which is situated close to the central market and the MAS, the new museum on the river in the northern part of the city, function as a gate to enter these canals. This concept doesnt represent a submissive position but exposes a sensitive interior world. The interplay of light, dark and sound, silence, echo and resonance are a central theme in this scenographic experience of these underground worlds. The exploration of secrets is incomplete without a glimpse into different layers. The palimpsest of the city covers what is re-inscribed, the metaphor of a chrono-spatial scaffold represents the secrets of this area. 5.2.3 Concept 3: Pac-Man, an urban labyrinthian game This area along the old docklands is a patchwork of old and new and is branded by a jumble of sounds. The chaotic perception of sounds interferes with the old and new cultural heritage. The postcard of this group expresses this vivid quarter with courtyards, formal and semi-public spaces in old monasteries and palazzos , which have been reused as university amenities and which can be compared with a scenery for Pac Man. The Pac-Man concept, as a metaphor for the labyrinthian structure of this area and its soundscape, is inspired by Pacmanhattan, an urban game that stimulates an active listening to the stories of the cultural heritage of New York City [46]. By incorporating play, experience, narration, and social interaction into this game, the players will discover aural scenes on location together with other people. The creation of a partly virtual walkabout, a system of routes, referring to the aboriginals cultural reading of the land, will interweave the soundscape with the legends related to the cultural heritage. In this way, the soundwalk will not only increase the awareness of the soundscape but the game will also motivate the participation in the search for actual sensorial and sustainable cityscapes. 5.2.4 Concept 4: The sound of silence The university neighbourhood, a historical core of the city, displays an intricate network of streets and semi-public spaces. Silence and tranquillity, which are present in the courtyards, the semi public spaces that are part of the university campuses, can reinforce the identity of this area. The beguinage, a walled community that has been entered in 1998 on the list of world heritage is also

situated in this area. Miller states that silence as soundlessness do not exist. Silence exists as reference to the ambience of a soundscape, so that quiet and silence become nearly synonymous [47]. Therefore quiet areas are areas with a good acoustic quality which have a restorative quality. Quiet areas are places where time and space are in touch with each other. The past is generally silent but it is within this silence that the heritage listens and stimulates the imagination in the construction of narrative tales. The human being is the central issue for the opening-up of silent areas [21].
6 Conclusion
Within this research the environmental sounds are considered as sources of meaning instead of nuisances. This approach, by which sound is the catalyst for the uploading of the cultural heritage qualities and livability of public spaces, can also bring a new dimension to the World Heritage concept. The soundscape around the world heritage sites is unique and irreplaceable; it supports the universal and outstanding value of this heritage. Discussions with the participants reveal that the concepts and the notation diagrams offer a structured set of aural information and powerful tools to urban designers and heritage managers. Applying a performative lens will shift the design methodology from conventional notations and concepts dealing with morphology and image to aural sensations including narrative assemblages. It is impossible to design meaning [48], in the same way as it is impossible to design experience [49]. Orchestrating the soundscape of a city is complicated because it is impossible to examine all the different parameters and their relationship. Like in music there are different ways to orchestrate the same score. The choice of an orchestral scheme also depends on the sound sources, the spatial environment, the activities An ultimate approach to urban soundscape does not exist because the soundscape and the cultural heritage in the urban context is complex and multiform in character, status, and meaning. Including the soundscape of the cityscape into an urban design supposes a holistic and sustainable approach.
References
[1] Jacobs, A., Great streets, MIT Press: Cambridge, 1993. [2] Ching, F., Architecture, Form, Space, and Order, John Wiley & Sons: New York, 1996. [3] Isaacs, R., The urban picturesque: an aesthetic experience of urban pedestrian places. Journal of Urban Design, 5, pp. 145-180, 2000. [4] Brown, B., Werner, C., Amburgey, J. & Szalay, C., Walkable route perceptions and physical features: converging evidence for en route walking experience. Environment and Behavior, 39, pp. 43-61, 2007. [5] Durmisevic, S. & Sariyildiz, S., 2001, A Systematic Quality Assessment of Underground Spaces - Public Transport Stations. Cities, 18(1), pp. 13-23, 2001.
365
[6] Rasmussen, S., Experiencing Architecture, MIT Press: Cambridge, 2001. [7] Pallasmaa, J., The eyes of the skin, Wiley-Academy: Chichester, 2005. [8] Neuhoff, J.G., Kramer, G. & Wayand, J., Pitch and loudness interact in auditory displays: Can the data get lost in the map? Journal of Experimental Psychology, 8, 17, 2002. [9] Southwork, M., The Sonic Environment of Cities. Environment and Behaviour, 1(1), pp. 48-70, 1969. [10] Blesser, B. & Salter, L-R., Spaces speak, are you listening? Experiencing aural architecture, MIT Press: Cambridge, 2007. [11] Raimbault, M. & Dubois, D., Urban soundscapes: Experiences and knowledge, Cities, 22(5), pp. 339-350, 2005. [12] Akin, ., Case-based instruction strategies in architecture. Design Studies 23 (4), pp. 410, 2002. [13] Blumstein, D., Davitian, R. & Kaye, P., Do film soundtracks contain nonlinear analogues to influence emotion? Biology Letters, 6, pp. 751-754, 2010. [14] Truax, B., Acoustic Communication, (2nd ed.), CT: Ablex Publishing: Westport, 2001. [15] Anderson, L., Mulligan, B., Goodman, L. & Regen, H., Effects of sounds on preferences for outdoor settings. Environment and behavior, 15(5), pp. 539-566, 1983. [16] Thompson, E., The Soundscape of Modernity, MIT Press: Cambridge, pp. 1-2, 2002. [17] Labelle, B., Other Acoustics. OASE 78, NAI: Rotterdam, pp. 17, 2009. [18] Gehl, J. & Gemze, L., New City Spaces, The Danish Architectural Press: Copenhagen, pp. 87, 2001. [19] Kaplan, R. & Kaplan, S., The experience of nature: a psychological perspective, University Press: Cambridge, pp. 189, 1989. [20] Herzog, T. & Bosley, P., Tranquility and preference as affective qualities of natural environments. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 12, pp. 115127, 1992. [21] Leus, M., Silence and tranquility areas, the extreme periphery of the inbetween cities, PLIC International conference Public Life in the in-between cities, I.I.T.: Haifa, pp. 93, 2010. [22] Mills, S., Sensing the place: Sounds and Landscape Archaeology. D.W. Bailey, A. Whittle & V. Cummings (eds.), (Un)settling the Neolithic, Oxford, pp. 80-81, 2005. [23] Dubois, D., Guastavino, C. &Raimbault, M., Les catgories cognitive du bruit urban: des discours aux indicateurs physiques, Acoustique & Technique, 39, pp. 49-57, 2005. [24] Schulte-Fortkamp, B., The meaning of annoyance in relation to the quality of acoustic environments. Noise and Health, 4(16) pp. 1328, 2002. [25] Nakamura, J. & Csikszentmihalyi, M., The concept of flow. Handbook of Positive Psychology, eds. C. Snyder & S. Lopez, pp. 92, 2005. [26] Favole, P., Squares in Contemporary Architecture, The Architectura & Natura Press: Amsterdam, 1995.

[27] Ansdell, G., Rethinking music and community: Theoretical perspectives in support of community music therapy. Community music therapy, eds. M. Pavlicevic & G. Ansell, Jessica Kingsley Publishers: London & Philadelphia, pp. 91113, 2004. [28] Fiumara, G., The other side of language: A philosophy of listening, Routledge: London and New York, 2006. [29] Schafer, M., The Tuning of the World, Knopf: New York, 1977. [30] Kang, J. & Zhang, M., Semantic differential analysis of the soundscape in urban open public spaces. Building and Environment, 45(1) , pp. 150-157, 2010. [31] Jrviluoma, H., Truax, B., Kyto, M. & Vikman, N., (Eds.), Acoustic Environments in Change. Tampere: University of Joensuu: Tampere, 2009. [32] Saipradist, A., A critical analysis of heritage interpretation and the development of a guidebook for non-Thai cultural tourists at Ayutthaya World Heritage site, Unpublished PhD, Silpakorn University: Bangkok, 2005. [33] Crowest, R., Multisensory interpretation and the Visitor Experience, Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the Degree of MA, Heritage Interpretation, University of Surrey: Strawberry Hill, 1999. [34] Collingwood, R., The Idea of History, Oxford University Press: London and New York, 1956. [35] Groat, L., & Wang, D., Architectural research methods, John Wiley & Sons: New York, pp. 136, 2002. [36] Childs, M., Storytelling and urban design. International Research on Placemaking and Urban Sustainability, Journal of Urbanism: 1754-9183, 1(2), pp. 173 186, 2008. [37] Carles, J., Lopez Barrio, I. & Vicente de Lucio, J., Sound influence on landscape values, Landscape and urban planning 43, pp. 191200, 1999. [38] Yin, R., Case study research: Design and methods, Applied Social Research Methods Series (3rd ed.) 5, SAGE Publications: Thousand Oaks, CA, 2003. [39] Lawson, B., How Designers Think: The design process demystified (3rd ed.) Architectural Press: Oxford, 2000. [40] Lidy, T. & Rauber, A., Classification and Clustering of Music for Novel Music Access Applications. Machine Learning Techniques for Multimedia", M. Cord, P. Cunningham (Hrg.), Springer: Berlin Heidelberg, 2008. [41] Leupen, B., Grafe, C., Krnig, N., Lampe, M. & de Zeeuw, P., Design and Analysis, 010 Publishers: Rotterdam, 1997. [42] Asmus, E., The measurement of musical expression. Paper presented at the Suncoast Music Education Research Symposium, Tampa, Florida, 2009. [43] Lucas, R. & Romice, O., Representing Sensory Experience in Urban Design. Design Principles and practices: an International Journal, 2(4), pp. 83, 2008.
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[44] Van Eyck, A. & Hertzberger, H., Drempel en ontmoeting: de gestalte van het tussen, (threshold and encounter, the shape of in- between, Forum (8), pp. 248-251, 1959. [45] Brillenburg Wurth, K., The Musicality of the Past: Sehnsucht, Trauma, and the Sublime. Journal of the Philosophy of History, 1(2), pp. 219-247, 2007. [46] PACMANHATTAN, http://pacmanhattan.com [47] Miller, W., Silence in the Contemporary Soundscape. MA Thesis, Department of Communications, Simon Fraser University: Burnaby, 1993. [48] Berlo, D., Process of Communication: An Introduction to Theory and Practice. Holt, Rinehart and Winston: New York, 1960. [49] Thackara, J. Articles of Association Between Design, Technology and The People Formerly Known As Users. Doors of Perception, 2000. www.doorsofperception.com
Section 5 Environmental management
371
The evaluation of ecological sustainable development capacities in Kashan: an historic city of Iran
N. Marsousi & A. R. Lajevardi
Payame Noor University, Department of Geography, Iran
Abstract
This paper is trying to evaluate the ecological capacities of the environment for sustainable development in the urban sprawl of Kashan in its future developments. So we evaluate the land capacities as the most important ecological factor. Kashan is an historical city in Iran, which is famous for its Persian carpet manufacturing. It has experienced the sprawl growth in recent decades. The methodology of this study is analytical-descriptive. The results show that: 67% of physical development of Kashan between the years 1938 to 2007 is caused by population growth, and 33% of it is due to sprawl growth. Also the existing Kashan land capacities can accept more than double of the existing population (572,508). In other words, it can have 2.13 times population growth in the following 30 years with the same urban area. Keywords: sprawl, urban land, ecological capacities, sustainable development, Kashan.
1 Introduction
Urban sprawl has been the most important barrier to urban sustainable development and that it prepares grounds for social unrest and insecurity [1]. Studies show that the cities with sprawl have suffered from greater losses when unexpected events have occurred [2]. Also the sprawl causes the density of the population distribution, requiring the need for much more services and authorities are forced to spend more for those services in comparison to the time when the city has the extensions in height and this makes the misdistribution of

the services in the city, and basically there comes some weaknesses in this regard in a way that sometimes results in some dissatisfactions [3].
2 Methodology
For achieving our objective we have used Holdrns model and the population prediction models. The research methodology used here is a descriptive-analytical method.
3 Discussion and findings

3.1 The appearance and physical growth of Kashan Functional changes in Kashan started in the third decade of the twentieth century, and have gradually appeared in the citys view after 1951. Rapid growth of urbanization started from 1961 [4, 5]. Table 1: Annual growth of population and extent of Kashan in the period of 1938 to 2006 [6].
1938 46690 1956 45955 -0/81 1966 58428 2.43 1976 84863 3.8 1986 138599 5.02 1996 201372 3.8 2006 248789 2.13
Year Population Annual population growth extent Annual extent growth
500 -
700 1/88
900 2/54
1400 4/5
1800 2/54
5000 10/75
6000 1/84
3.2 Comparative analysis of urban land per capita gross in Kashan, and some cities in the world 3.2.1 Comparative analysis of urban land per capita gross in Kashan with some other cities of Iran For comparative analysis of urban land per capita gross of Kashan with other Iranian cities, 16 cities were randomly selected from among Iranian cities. With a view of table 2 it is clear that: the average land per capita gross is higher in only two cities of Rasht and Yazd compared to Kashan. While the average land per capita gross in other cities studied, is lower than Kashan. The average land per capita gross is, in Tehran 40 percent, in Urmia 30 percent, in Ahvaz 94 percent, in Bandar Abbas 50 percent, in Kerman 95 percent, in Araq 42 percent, in Shiraz 61 percent, in Ekbatan 69 percent, in Ardabil 62 percent, in Zanjan 63 percent, in Qazvin 38 percent, in Sanandaj 50 percent, in Khorram Abad 41 percent and in Boroujerd 50 percent of the amount of per capita gross land in Kashan.
373
Table 2:
Comparison of urban land gross per capita in the cities of Kashan, compared with some other Iranian cities in 2006 [8]. Per capita gross land for each person (Square meter) 241 72/75 227 122/4 94/7 246/75 147/25 167/81 231/51 102/66 150/24 260/043 153/59 92.61 122/01 100/44 126/33
Name Kashan Urmia Ahwaz Bandar Abbas Tehran Rasht Shiraz Ekbatan Kerman Arak Ardabil Yazd Zanjan Qazvin Sanandaj Khoram Abad Borujerd
Population 248789 577303 969843 367508 77050306 551161 1214808 473149 496684 438338 412669 423006 341801 349821 311446 328544 229/541
The extent to hectare 600 4200 22000 4500 73000 13600 17900 7940 11500 4500 6200 11000 5250 3240 3800 3300 2900
Density per hectare 41/46 137/45 44.04 81/66 105/54 40/52 67/86 59/59 40 97/40 66/55 40 65/10 107 81/95 99/55 79/15
3.2.2 Comparative analysis of urban land per capita gross in Kashan and some existing standard scales in Iran The average per capita gross in the city of Kashan does not match with the existing standard scales. The average per capita gross of urban land in Iran is 39 percent, in the warm and dry cities is 41 percent; in cities composed of 100 to 250 thousand inhabitants it is 45 percent; and the recommended figure by the Housing and Urban ministry is 41 percent per capita gross land for Kashan. Table 3 shows average land per capita gross for each of the standard scales studied.
Figure 1:
Initial extent and scope during 1938, 1956, 1966, 1976, 1986, 1996 and 2006 in Kashan [7].
3.2.3 Comparative study of urban land per capita gross in Kashan and some cities in developing countries For comparative analysis of urban land per capita gross in Kashan, with some cities in developing countries, 12 cities have been selected randomly. The total population size, density of people per hectare and the average land per capita gross for each person of the selected cities are presented in table 4.
375
Table 3:
Average land gross per capita for each standard scale study in 2006 [8]. Per capita gross land for each person (square meter) 241 95/24 93 `07 109
Name Kashan Total cities in Iran Recommended figure of Housing and Urbanism Ministry Average number of dry and hot cities The average figure for 100 to 250 thousand cities Table 4: Name
Comparison of urban land gross per capita in Kashan, compared with some cities in developing countries in 2006 [8]. Population The extent to hectare 600 45300 57300 20000 73400 10000 74235 51700 108100 30300 153900 47727 95863 Density per hectare Per capita gross land for each person (square meter) 241 56/62 337/05 208/11 111/97 66 196 305/37 104/11 66/55 122/39 327/27 51/81
KASHAN Cairo Damascus Kuwait Baghdad Algiers Tashkent Warsaw Moscow Buenos Aires Istanbul Caracas New Delhi
248789 8000000 1700000 961000 6555000 1519570 3786000 1693000 10383000 3050000 12574000 2100000 18405858
41/46 176 29.66 48/05 89/3 151/95 51 32/75 96 150/24 81/7 44 `93
By looking at table 4 it becomes clear that the average land per capita gross is higher in only three cities of Warsaw, Damascus and Caracas, compared to Kashan. The average land per capita gross is less in other cities studied in comparison to Kashan. The average land per capita gross in Cairo is 23 percent, in New Delhi 21 percent, in Algiers and Buenos Aires 27 percent, in Moscow 43

percent, in Istanbul 50 percent, in Baghdad 46 percent, in Tashkent and Kuwait 81 percent of per capita gross land in Kashan. 3.2.4 Comparative analysis of urban land per capita gross in Kashan and some East Asian cities For comparative analysis of urban land per capita gross of Kashan, some 12 East Asian cities have been selected randomly. By looking at table 5 it becomes clear that: Only in Pyongyang, the average per capita gross has more land compared with Kashan. In other cities studied, the average per capita gross is lower than that of Kashan. The average land per capita gross is in Dhaka 17 percent, in Tokyo and Seoul 24 percent, in Manila 30 percent, in Jakarta 33 percent, in Taipei 42 percent, in Nanjing 49 percent, in Nagoya and Kuala Lumpur 59 percent and in Bangkok 79 percent per capita gross of land in Kashan. Table 5: Name Comparison of urban land gross per capita of Kashan and some cities in East Asia 2006 [8]. Population The extent to hectare 600 156900 319400 27100 30400 60500 268300 32600 70903 70588 78125 27357 95000 Density per hectare 41/46 52 10/19 96/64 230/26 172/26 70/81 69/26 124 170 138 69 84 per capita gross land for each Person (Square meter) 241 192/25 981/12 102/47 43/42 58 141/21 144/37 80/65 58/82 74/48 144/93 118
KASHAN Bangkok Pyongyang Taipei Dhaka Seoul Shanghai Unvocal Jakarta Tokyo Manila Kvlalampvr Nanjing
248789 8161000 3255000 2619000 7000000 10422000 19000000 2258000 8792000 120000000 10000000 1887674 8000000
3.2.5 The comparative analysis of urban land per capita gross in Kashan and some western cities For comparative analyses of urban land per capita gross in Kashan and western cities, 12 cities have been selected randomly. The gained result from the adaptive comparison between the average urban land gross per capita in Kashan and other cities studied is that the average land per capita gross is higher in Kashan in comparison to many cities studied above.
377
Table 6:
Comparison of urban land gross per capita in Kashan, with some western cities in 2006 [8]. Name Density per hectare Per capita gross land for each person (square meter) 241 48/43 104/51 55/45 38 102/56 101/3 120 110 133 106/9 78 153/2
Kashan Paris Rome Sydney London Melbourne Marseille Genoa Munich Valencia Belfast Rennes Stockholm
41/6 206/47 95/68 180/32 261/94 97/5 97/8 87 93/7 95 94/34 143 65/45
So that among the 52 cities surveyed there are only seven cities with more land per capita gross than Kashan and the per capita gross land in other cities are less than Kashan. 3.3 Theoretical evaluation of the sprawl spread of Kashan Holdrns model has been used for theoretical evaluation of the urban sprawl of Kashan. Holdrn's model is one of the basic models used for identifying inappropriate urban sprawl. Using this model can determine how much the city is growing due to population increase and how much the city would grow due to urban sprawl. Holdrn has used the formula of land per capita gross in his model in such a way that we have the following equivalent: a=A/P In this relation the net per capita gross is equal to the extent of land (A) divided by the amount of population (P). Based on this relationship, it can be said that the total land occupied by an urban extent is (A), which is equivalent to multiplying the per capita gross (a) and population (P). In that case [9]. According to the results gained by Holdrns model, 67 percent of city enlargement in the years between 1938 and 2006 has been achieved due to population increase in Kashan and 33 percent of the enlargement at the same period has been achieved due to the phenomenon of urban sprawl.

3.4 The assessment of hidden land capacities of Kashan To evaluate the capacity of the land in Kashan, the following formula to predict population has been used: t = ( Log ( p1 / p0 ) ) ( Log(1+r ) ) In the above formula p0 is the primary population, p1 is secondary population, r is the rate of population growth, t is the time when the initial population reaches the secondary population [10]. The results of the above formula are shown in Table 7 Table 7: Extent, per capita gross, and population density and optimal conditions in Kashan in 2006 [6].
Existing population Extent (Hectares) Density (Hectares) Per capita gross (square meters) Population Desirable Optimum density (Hectares) Optimal Difference per between the capita per capita gross land, with per (square capita meters) desirable 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 +158/68 +134/43 -6/5 14/8 399/84 +4743 +673 +595/66 +301/12 -104/15 +758/1 134
Extent
County1 County2 County3 County4 County5 County6 County7 County8 County9 County10 County11 Sum
39080 44750 79399 27701 14906 2600 2000 3000 4751 28430 2172 248789
1038/3 1080/4 798 337/4 755/5 1261 156 210/8 193/9 8/1 187/9 6027/3
37/63 41/41 99/49 82/10 19/72 2/06 12/82 14/33 24/5 3/564 11/55 41/46
265/68 241/43 100/5 121/8 506/84 4850 780 702/66 408/12 2/85 865/1 241
96957 100877 74517 41095 70549 117752 14667 19685 18106 757 17546 572508
93/38 93/38 93/38 93/38 93/38 93/38 93/38 93/38 93/38 93/38 93/38 93/38
The data in table 7 show that: Kashan has the capacity (with its current official limits) for a population of over 572,508 people. In other words, with the population growth rate of 2.13 percent, Kashan has the ability to accept more population in the next 30 years within the limits of its current official status and land gross per capita and desired standards of housing and urbanism ministry. The surrounding regions of Kashan are different from each other in the acceptance of populations. Such that population acceptance in 10th region (the citys commercial center) is much higher than the standards, while it is almost standard in the 3rd and 4th region. But the adoption of population in other parts is very low, such that, regions 5, 7, 8, 9 and 11 can accept more population (with current population growth rate) until the next 70, 90, 92 and 105 years respectively. The most remarkable point is the amount of the population acceptance ability in region 6. In such a way that, this area with its current population growth rate, can settle more population until the next 210 years.
379
4 Conclusion
Urban land gross per capita in Kashan has reached from 107 square meters to 241 square meters during the last 70 years. The number mentioned is a very high figure and most of it is due to urban sprawl. Moreover, the current extent in the city is suitable for adopting a population of over 572 thousand people and sufficient land is available to the current population growth rate of Kashan up to 30 years for population settlement. What is inferred from these results is that, while we see such lavish exploitation of the land, it seems unlikely to achieve sustainable urban development. Because creating a balanced spatial distribution of urban services in cities with urban sprawl phenomenon (such as Kashan) is very difficult. In addition, the probability of natural hazards in counties where they are irregularly shaped and population acceptance has not been reasonable is much higher than other counties. Scientific studies conducted in Iran confirm this statement. Case studies of Japanese international cooperation agency (JICA) in Iran shows that in case of an earthquake with the intensity of 7 degrees Richter in Tehran (a city which faces the urban sprawl phenomenon) the earthquake losses will amount to 380 thousand in the early minutes (About 6 percent of the total population of Tehran) which is very high figure. More surprisingly, whereas the human toll caused by earthquake, rather than being in crowded regions and in densely populated downtown of Tehran, will be in regions 15, 14, 16, 20 and 12. The regions mentioned were among the surrounding villages of Tehran in not too far in the past or that these regions have been located in abandoned areas around Tehran. However, in recent decades due to the increased population of the city and the high costs of land and also lack of access to inlands of the city for the inhabitants with low-incomes, these lands have been changed into buildings without observing a scientific criterion and then were attached to the main body of Tehran [11]. So regarding the facts mentioned above the urban managers in Kashan, instead of focusing on urban sprawl spread which leads to the destruction of agricultural lands around the city, increased costs of transportation and fuel, increased costs of service deliveries, and consequently increased ground stock prices of the land and creates social and economic inequalities and spatial problems and increases insecurity and above all, increases casualties resulting from natural disasters with optimal utilization of available land within the current city official limitations should improve and renovate old and worn out urban buildings and increase city density logically and according to the standards to answer many of the urban needs and to provide conditions for urban sustainable development.
References
[1] Shakoi, H., Social geography of cities, University press of Jihad: Tehran, p.124, 1990.

[2] www.edalatkhahi.ir. [3] Mashhadi Zade Dhaqany, N., Analytical features of urban planning in Iran, Science & Industry University: Tehran, pp.118-135, 2002. [4] Hesamian, F., Etemad, G. & Haeri, M.R., Urbanization in Iran, Agah Publication: Tehran, pp. 170-174, 2008. [5] Shakoi, H., New thoughts on geography, Gita Shenasi press: Tehran, p.133, 2000. [6] Authors calculations based on raw data Kashan municipality. [7] Drawing from the authors based on: original maps of geographically organized Iranian Army. [8] Authors calculations based on: Management and planning organization, Yearbook 2007 Iranian cities, Department of statistics and information: Tehran, pp.127-200, 2007. [9] Hekmat Nia , H. & Mosavi, M.N,. Model application in geography with an emphasis on urban and regional planning, Elm Novin publications: Yazd, pp.131-133, 2006. [10] Zanhani, H.A, Demographic analysis, Samt publications: Tehran, p.30, 2005. [11] Zangi Abadi, A. & Tabrizi, N., Tehran earthquake and evaluating spatial vulnerability of urban counties, Geographical Researches: Tehran, pp 56-60, 2006.
381
Trading system of environmental loads: interregional cap and trade system using an ecological footprint
T. Ujihara1 & M. Taniguchi2
1 2
Graduate School of Environmental Science, Okayama University, Japan Graduate School of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Tsukuba, Japan
Abstract
National lands are classifiable by their usage into source areas and sink areas. Urban areas are environmentally dependent on the land use of rural areas. The concept of environmental balance provides a key perspective. Urban and regional planning including land use planning based on that concept can address environmental problems comprehensively. In recent years, based on the concept of the environmental balance, Ujihara et al. proposed an interregional trading system of environmental loading using ecological footprint. The system is designed to conduct interregional trading based on urban and regional planning. By providing incentives, the system is anticipated as a mode of securing financial resources to promote measures for improvement of the environmental balance voluntarily. However, to consider introduction of the system specifically, it is necessary to examine whether the system provides a structure to improve the environmental balance from the perspective of securing financial resources for urban and regional planning. This study proposed a mechanism for securing financial resources based on an interregional cap and trade system using EF. The study explored future prospects of the system to examine effects on financial resources for urban and regional planning. Results of those analyses show that trading prices related with interregional cap and trade systems using EF are highly influential for financial resources intended for urban and regional planning. The case study demonstrated the possibility that implementation costs are covered by the trading price, even if large-scale measures that drastically reform the regional structure are implemented. Keywords: cap and trade system, ecological footprint, urban planning.
1 Introduction
In recent years, the international and interregional emissions trading of environmental loads has been implemented as a countermeasure against worsening global warming. Typical emissions trading systems are international emissions trading established under the Kyoto Protocol and the EU-ETS being conducted in EU countries. The intended environmental loads of those systems are restricted to greenhouse gases because the systems have been conducted specifically to mitigate global warming. However, global environmental problems became diversified. It is necessary to implement measures from a broad perspective to address those other problems as well as greenhouse gases. National lands are classifiable by their usage into source areas (carbon dioxide emissions and food consumption in urban areas) and sink areas (nature absorbs environmental loads in rural areas). Urban areas are environmentally dependent on the land use of rural areas. The concept of environmental balance provides a key perspective. Urban and regional planning including land use planning based on that concept can address environmental problems comprehensively. In fact, the Panel on Infrastructure Development, held under the auspices of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in Japan, first described the structure for realizing effective utilization of urban areas and preservation of the natural environment in suburban areas by trading of mutual land use [1]. The Ecological Footprint (EF) developed by Wackernagel and Rees has attracted worldwide attention over the years [2]. The EF can represent different environmental loads such as carbon dioxide emissions and food consumption comprehensively on an areal basis. Moreover, this indicator can represent the intra-regional relation between environmental capacity (forests, farmland, etc.) and environmental loading. It enables estimation of the environmental balance from the viewpoint of limited earth resources. In recent years, based on the concept of the environmental balance, Ujihara et al. [3] proposed an interregional trading system of environmental loading using EF. The system is designed to conduct interregional trading based on urban and regional planning. By providing incentives, the system is anticipated as a mode of securing financial resources to promote measures for improvement of the environmental balance voluntarily. The system is being discussed as an efficient tool for growth strategies in the Panel on Infrastructure Development described above. It is a breakthrough move that raises the feasibility of this system. However, to consider introduction of the system specifically, it is necessary to examine whether the system provides a structure to improve the environmental balance from the perspective of securing financial resources for urban and regional planning. This report of our study explains an interregional cap and trade system using EF developed by Ujihara et al. [3]; it proposes a structure to improve the environmental balance based on the system. Based on the structure, the study explores future prospects of the system to examine the effect on financial resources for urban and regional planning.
383
1.1 Previous studies The EF indicator was developed by Wackernagel and Rees in the early 1990s [3]. The indicator has been calculated at various scales such as national [36] and regional levels [711]. Moreover, means to improve the EF value have been studied from the standpoint of urban and regional planning [1216]. The EF can reveal land areas that depend on other regions by comparing the environmental capacity in a country or region. Andersson and Lindroth [17] quantitatively described land resource dependency of trade using EF. They examined issues in trade from a sustainability standpoint. Recently, specifically regarding land resource dependency, Cap and Trade systems using EF have been developed by Ujihara et al. [3] and Ohl et al. [18]. The system developed by Ohl et al. [18] is designed to trade international environmental loads constituting differences from the global average of environmental capacity (1.8 gha per person). The awareness of the problems is the same as that of the system developed by Ujihara et al. [3], but the system developed by Ohl et al. [18] is not designed as an approach toward the improvement of environmental balance in regions based on urban and regional planning. 1.2 Interregional cap and trade system using EF This section explains the interregional cap and trade system using EF developed by Ujihara et al. [3]. The explanation presents a framework that is useful for establishing national land use for a balanced environment. 1.2.1 What is the interregional cap and trade system using an ecological footprint? Table 1 presents the contents of the interregional cap and trade system using an Ecological Footprint. 1.2.2 Framework toward national land use for a balanced environment Based on an interregional cap and trade system using the EF indicator, this chapter presents a new framework intended for national land use for a balanced environment. Figure 1 portrays the framework. 1) First, the EF is introduced into the master plan for deciding the future guidelines for land use. The use of EF enables the local government to reassess land use in a region based on the environmental balance. 2) Second, based on results of 1), the local government discusses and implements land-use measures such as Urban Compaction and Land Recycling, for improving the environmental balance. Both 1) and 2) shall establish a foundation for participation in an interregional cap and trade system at the national level without the need for new calculations of environmental loads. 3) Finally, Interregional Cap and Trade must build a banking system for managing necessary information such as the environmental load excess ratio r

Table 1:
Environment load
Contents of the interregional cap and trade system using an EF [3].

This system targets the EF value based on the environmental load generated during the daily life activities of residents (the EF value associated with residential consumption) in a region. The environmental load generated by urban activity outside such regions, such as the industrial and service-related load, is not included in this calculation. Compared with environmental measures aimed at industrial and service sector, measures aimed at the activities of residents are insufficient. Land-rent-based trading price This method calculates the trading price by converting it into a trading price using the land rent. CO2 trading price-based trading price This method calculates the trading price for CO2 absorption per unit of forest area using existing CO2 trading prices. (see 2 chapter for more information related to the calculation methods) Local governments drawing up a master plan to decide the future direction of land use planning. The environmental balance in each region is evaluated using the environmental load excess ratio r. The environmental load excess ratio in region k (rk) is defined as follows.
rk EF k EC k
Trading price
Participants Cap
(Environmental load limit)
EFk: EF in region k (ha) ECk: Environmental capacity (EC) in region k (ha) The environmental capacity (EC) is expressed as an area of land necessary to absorb each component in the EF, such as the actual farmland area in a target area. Next, the reduction goal (cap) of the environmental load excess ratio of the whole country is set to realize national land use for a balanced environment. In addition, the initial allocation of each region is the same as the cap () of the whole country. Depending on the situation, a cap is premised on change. Specifically, a cap is established as a first step to an achievable goal. Subsequently, the cap is tightened with incentives by local governments. This will enable local governments to address environmental improvement voluntarily.
Dependence amount
Trading Cap () Initial allocation Actual excess ratio
Environmental load excess ratio (r)
Burden amount
Environmentally dependent region
Environmentally burdened region
Basic concept of interregional cap and trade system using the EF.
Interregional trading of footprints
Based on the dependency of land use, trading of footprints (dependence or burden amounts) the differences between a cap and the actual excess ratio are implemented in respective regions. Similarly to existing cap and trade systems, the interregional cap and trade system enables reduction of the actual excess ratio in the region without trading.
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and the situation of measures in various regions. This banking systemenables interregional trading of footprints in national areas. Furthermore, a capthe Limit of Environmental Load Excess Ratio ris established as a first step to an achievable goal. The cap is subsequently tightened using incentives for local governments. Through repetition of 2) and 3) using a long-term perspective, the framework was intended to form environmentally balanced regions and national lands (>r (1.0)). This framework will enable local governments to address environmental improvement voluntarily through urban and regional planning.
Actual condition
1)
Actual excess ratio r Source areas
Implementation of interregional cap and trade system
> r
Cap Sink areas
Burden amount
Implementation of measures in regions 2) EX. =1.5 (Variation) Reduction Burden amount Dependence amount Urban compaction Land recycle
Banking system
3)
Dependence amount
Repetition
> r (1.0) National land use for a balanced environment
Figure 1:
Framework toward national land use for a balanced environment [3].
2 Methods
As discussed in chapter 1, the cap and trade system developed by Ujihara et al. [3] is designed to conduct interregional trading based on urban and regional planning. It can be expected to serve as a mode of securing revenues to promote voluntary measures toward improvement of the environmental balance. Then, the system is discussed as an efficient tool for a growth strategy at the Panel on Infrastructure Development [1]. The basis of discussion is a desire to introduce the concept of the system for a growth strategy, even if the urban area side bears trading costs of the dependence amount. These are breakthroughs that indicate the feasibility of the system that must provide full understanding and agreement with the urban area side. Although a larger movement exists at the national level, the system presents challenges such as setting of the cap and the association between trading prices that are determined based on the cap and financial resources for urban and regional planning.

This chapter presents the structure of securing revenues for urban and regional planning based on the interregional cap and trade system using the EF, verifies following matter based on the structure. Figure 2 presents the structure. 1) The standard-setting of cap (initial allocation) is defined. The trading price (financial resources) obtained by trading the burden amount is also clarified. 2) Various ways exist to use the financial resources. However, if measures to improve the environmental balance will be implemented, then the trading system generates new financial resources through improvement in a region. This creates incentives to implement measures in a region.
Implementation of the interregional cap and trade system using an EF Burden amount of environmental load 1) Financial resource
(Utilization as financial resources for urban and regional planning) Implementation of measures toward improvement of the environmental Improved amount of the environmental balance
2) Financial resource
Figure 2:
Mechanism for securing financial resource based on interregional cap and trade system using EF.
On the assumption that a trading price is used as a financial resource for the urban and regional planning that engender improve environmental balance, this chapter presents a comparison of trading prices and implementation costs based on scenario analysis. Furthermore, the case study quantifies the trading price (financial resources) generated through measures, showing how much those financial resources to investment amount in the case of utilization trading price obtained as the environmental burden amount of the environmental load. 2.1 Prerequisite for case study 2.1.1 Setting the cap For an interregional cap and trade system using EF, trading prices vary according to the cap. The case study sets the standard of the cap and calculates the trading price based on it. From the standpoint of ecological debt based on land-resource dependency, trading prices are clarified as an environmental burden (or dependence) amount of the environmental load. Assuming interregional trading on a nationwide scale, the standard of caps is subject to the following equation.
EP
j 1
d j
EPkb
k 1
(1)
EPjd : Trading price of Environmentally dependent region j EPkb : Trading price of Environmentally burdened region k
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The cap is set such that the total trading price of environmentally dependent regions becomes equivalent to that of an environmentally burdened region. In other words, it is necessary to set an environmental load excess ratio based on the EF and EC values of the whole country as the initial cap. Lowering the cap over the long term is the ultimate aim at national land use for a balanced environment; the environmental load excess ratio is 1.0. 2.1.2 Calculation of EF This case study calculates the EF value based on the environmental load generated during the daily life activities of residents (the EF value associated with residents consumption) in a region. Consequently, the environmental load generated by urban activity outside such regions, such as the industrial and service-related load, is not included in this calculation. The reasons are the following: 1) The calculable objects and scale are limited, because it is a necessity to consider Input-Output analysis. 2) Insufficient measures are aimed at the activities of residents compared with environmental measures aimed at the industrial and service sector. This calculation methodology can calculate the EF of residential zone-level in a region to meet the measurement scale. The EF indicator comprises the following components, which are linked to land use planning. These components are referred from the methodology developed in an earlier study [2]. 1) Farmland needed to grow crops for food and feed (Farmland footprint) 2) Grazing land needed to graze animals for meat and milk (Grazing land footprint) 3) Forestland needed to obtain material for use in paper production (Forestland footprint). 4) Built-up land needed to conduct urban activities (Built-up land footprint) 5) Forestland needed to absorb CO2 from fossil fuels for household and private transport use (Energy footprint) Table 2 presents the EF indicator value calculation method. Fishing grounds are excluded because the system particularly addresses the introduction into urban and regional planning. There is a global hectare (gha) that is virtual land 1 hectare considering the average productivity of land and water area on the earth. This unit is effective for macro analyses such as an international comparison of EF. The case study does not use the global hectare because the system basically is domestic trading. Ecological Footprint Standards 2009 were released by Global Footprint Network consisting of experts in EF on September 2009 [19]. This report broadly defines the standard of methodology for calculating EF. Adaptation to Ecological Footprint Standards 2009 must be explored in future works for implementing systems in many countries. Ujihara et al. [20] is developing EF calculation package at local government scale available for cap and trade system.

Table 2: Method of EF indicator value calculation.
Components in the EF indicator

k Food EF food
Formulas for calculation
Parameters
F j k : Consumptionof crop j in area k (t) p n k : Population of age backet n in area k (person) f nj : Consumptionof crop j in age bracket n (t/person) : Land productivity of crop j (t/ha) w m : Wood pulp and chip demanded in japan of each destination for import m (m3) m : Growing stock amount of forest of each destination for import m (m3/ha) p : Population in Japanperson r : Rate of household consumption (%) b i : Built-up of land use i in area k ha C ij : CO2 emissions, type i of houses, and size j of households in area k (ton) r : Absorption efficiency of CO2 t-CO2/ha C : Automobile fuel consumption in area k (CC/person) k c : Conversion factor
Farmland 1) footprint
Fj
n 1
10
k n
f nj
14
Feed
k EFfood feed
and grazing land
j 1
Fjk
2) Grazing
land footprint
Forestland footprint 3) (paper)
k EF paper
k 3 w pn r m p m 1 m
4) Built-up
land footprint
k EFbuilt bik upland i 1
Household Energy 5) footprint
k EFhousehold
C
i 1 j 1
k ij
/r
Private k EF transport pk C transportation
kc / r
2.1.3 Target regions An interregional cap and trade system using EF assumes trading of an entire country. Because of this, it is necessary to select widely various target regions covering diversified local governments across the country to the greatest extent possible. This case study selects the following regions in Japan with different environmental balance such as a small city and big city. Figure 3 presents target region locations. The environmental load excess ratios of target regions are calculated based on the EF value associated with residents consumption, with reference to Table 2. However, the calculation methodology of each region differs slightly because of data limitations. The environmental load excess ratio for all of Japan is 2.67 times. In other words, this case study assumes 2.67 times as the initial cap. Tsuyama city in Okayama Prefecture (population: ca. 110,000): Tsuyama is a local city in intermediate and mountainous areas in western Japan. Although this city serves as a central city in northern Okayama Prefecture, it has a great deal of natural environmental areas such as rural and mountain areas. Tsuyama city is
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Tsuyama city Okayama city
Tokyo Metropolis
km
Figure 3:
Locations of target regions.
defined as an environmentally burdened region because its environmental load excess ratio is 1.4 times. Okayama city in Okayama Prefecture (population: ca. 670,000): Okayama city is a local central city in western Japan. This city has urban functions in its role as a business center of Okayama Prefecture. Okayama city is defined as an environmentally dependent region because the environmental load excess ratio is 13.5 times. Tokyo Metropolis (population: ca. 13,000,000): The Tokyo Metropolis is the national capital. It is the center of economy and industry in Japan. The Tokyo Metropolis is defined as an environmentally dependent region because its environmental load excess ratio is 75.2 times. 2.1.4 Setting of trading prices Land-rent-based trading prices: when trading of a footprint is implemented, dependency of land use can be converted into a trading price using the land rent. In fact, this method is marked by the ability to calculate trading prices based on interdependence of land resources. The following is the formula used for calculation. (2) EL EF EC
EPrent LR EL (3) : Cap (times) EPrent: Trading price of environmentally dependent (burden) amount (euro/year) LR: Land rent per hectare (euro/year) EL: Environmental dependence (burden) amount (ha/year)

The land rent is estimated easily by multiplying the land price by the social discount rate (0.04). Furthermore, the land price per hectare is the average value of forestland in Japan [21]. This price includes no value of the timber growing as trees on the land (1 euro equals 129.6 yen as of November 30, 2009) [22]. CO2 trading-price-based trading price: This is a method to calculate the trading price using existing CO2 trading prices. This method uses the CO2 trading price of EU-ETS, which has been implemented on a maximum scale in the EU because the trading price of EU-ETS affects other trading markets as a reference price. This case study adopts the CO2 trading price of EU-ETS as an alternative value for the trading footprint. The following is the formula used for calculation.
PCO2 p rCO 2
EPCO2 PCO2 EL
(4) (5)
PCO2: Trading price for CO2 absorption per hectare (euro/year) p : Existing CO2 trading price (euro/t-CO2) rCO2 : CO2 absorption efficiency of forest area (t-CO2/hayear) EPCO2 : Trading price for CO2 absorption to environmental dependence (burden) amount (euro/year) This CO2 trading price of EU-ETS uses 13.54 euro /t-CO2, the closing average of November 2009 [23]. In addition to the forestland footprint, the EF includes farmland, the Grazing land footprint, and so on. The estimates include these components in trading price as equivalence of forestland. It is necessary to consider the value of different land use in the future. 2.2 Association between trading price and cost of implementing measures aimed at improvement of the environmental balance The case study assumes that the trading price of Tsuyama city, obtained as the burden amount of environmental load, is used as financial resources for urban and regional planning toward improvement of the environmental balance. 2.2.1 Settings of scenarios These scenarios are aimed at urban compaction and land recycling with reform of a regional form. Table 3 presents settings of scenarios and its estimated costs. One key point is the degree to which the local government side bears the implementation cost. The scenario budget cost to use low-use and unused lands as natural land use from initial investment (with the exception of cost of land acquisition) to maintenance. The case of the abandoned cultivated lands is similar. However, urban compaction requires incentives for promoting residences in city centers. For this reason, this scenario budgets the cost of lowuse and unused lands acquisition in the city center as an incentive for promoting residence in the city center, in addition to nature regeneration in suburban areas.
391
Table 3:
Scenarios Utilization of less-used and unused lands Land recycling Utilization of abandoned cultivated lands
Settings of scenarios and the assumed costs.

Settings Scenario for converting less-used and unused lands (Area: ca. 180 ha) in suburbs into natural land use Scenario for converting abandoned cultivated lands (Area: ca. 480 ha) in suburbs into natural land use Assumed costs Costs of reforestation*: Cost of afforestation Cost of maintenance Costs of farmland Regeneration*: Cost of land-clearing Cost of seedling and fertilizer Cost of Maintenance *Excluding labor costs Cost of land acquisition in the city center Costs of the above-described forests and farmlands regeneration
Urban compaction
Urban compaction is set as a scenario for promoting development of low-use and unused lands in the city center (acceptance potential: 2,066 people), with constraint of development in suburban areas.
2.2.2 Calculation method of cost of implementing measures The project term of each scenario is assumed conveniently as a decade. Those projects progress in stages. The evaluation period of the scenario is 50 years, including the project period. The total cost related to the implementation of scenarios is converted into present value using a social discount rate (0.04). What land use (farmland, forestland, and so on) should be converted is determined by location conditions and the purpose of the user if low-used and unused lands in rural areas and mountain areas are converted into a nature land use. This case study broadly assumes that the conversion ratios are 70 percent for farmland and 30 percent for forest land, considering location conditions (rural areas and mountain areas) using GIS.
3 Results
3.1 Trading price of target regions Figure 4 presents results of trading prices of target regions based on the initial cap. For cap 2.67, for example, Tsuyama city (environmentally burdened region) has 4 million euros per year as the burden amount for an environmental load. In contrast, Okayama city (Environmentally dependent region) is subjected to 57 million euros per year as the dependence amount of the environmental load.

Million euros per year
200 Benefit 8 0 -200 -400 -600

CO2 trading price-based trading price Land rent-based trading price
0.03 4 Okayama city -57 -27

CO 2 trading price-based trading price Land rent-based trading price
Tokyo metropolis 0.02 0.01 0 -450 -0.01 -0.02 -965 -0.03 -0.04 Ratios of trading price __ to government revenue __
Tsuyama city
Cost -800 -1000 -1200
Figure 4:
Trading prices __
Trading prices and the ratios of them to government revenue.
Tsuyama city can also expend a trading price obtained as the burden amount of environmental load for urban and regional planning toward improvement of the environmental balance. For a trading price of 4 million euros, this is equivalent to 8.7 percent of civil engineering expenses in Tsuyama city, including urban planning [24]. Figure 4 shows also the ratios of the trading price to the target regions revenues [24]. For land rent-based trading prices, those ratios are 2.2 percent in Tsuyama city as the beneficiary, 3.1 percent in Okayama city and 2.8 percent in Tokyo Metropolis as the payment. Environmentally dependent regions will pay about 3.0 percent to revenue as the trading price if an interregional cap and trade system using EF is introduced. 3.2 Association between trading prices and implementation costs of each scenario As Figure 5 shows, for land rent-based trading prices, the total implementation costs of each scenario are lower than the trading price during the evaluation period. In the case of CO2 trading price-based trading prices, only total implementation costs of the utilization scenario of abandoned cultivated lands slightly exceed the trading price. In this case study, total implementation costs of each scenario include initial investment and maintenance costs as implementation costs of each scenario. In addition, utilization scenarios of abandoned cultivated lands are targeted at all abandoned cultivated lands in the target region.
393
Million euros per year/ha

Land rent-based trading price Implementation costs per unit area
200 180 160

Trading prices and total Implementation costs
0.30 0.25 0.20

The total implementation costs 0.15
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
CO2 trading pricebased
0.10 0.05 Low-use and Abandoned unused lands cultivated lands 0.00
Trading price (Financial resources)
Land recycling
Urban compaction
Figure 5:
Trading prices and total cost related to the implementation of scenarios.(Conversion into present value).
It is necessary to discuss how far implementation costs should be covered, with a financial resources scale obtained using this system in mind. Furthermore, as noted from Table 3, each scenario assumes costly measures that are of a drastically reformed regional form. In other words, even if large-scale measures are implemented, trading prices related with an interregional cap and trade system using EF are highly influential on financial resources for urban and regional planning. This case study demonstrated the possibility that implementation costs are covered by the trading price. Figure 6 shows a newly obtainable trading price by improving environmental balance in regions. Regarding the trading price per unit area associated with measures, the effect of the urban compaction scenario is highest in each scenario. This results from the realization of energy-efficient living spaces (from house in suburban areas to apartment in city center) and low traffic environmental loads by promoting residence in the city center, along with utilization of low-use and unused lands in suburban areas, while land recycling for land for the principal purpose of utilization of the land itself. As Figures 5 and 6 show, the newly obtainable trading price is 26 percent of the implementation cost. The generation of new financial resources will create incentives to implementation of measures in the region.
Implementation costs per unit area

1) For land rent-based trading prices
Million euros per year 5.0 Newly obtainable trading price related ___ to implementation of measures Newly obtainable trading price per unit area 3.26 3.0
Euros per year/ha 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 Newly obtainable trading price (benefit) __ related to implementation of measures per unit area
Newly obtainable trading price (benefit) __ related to implementation of measures per unit area
4.0
2.0
1.58
1.44
6,000 4,000 2,000
1.0
0.0
Low-use and unused lands
Abandoned cultivated lands
Urban compaction
Land recycling
2) For the CO2 trading price-based trading price

Euros per year/ha
5.0
Newly obtainable trading price related __ to implementation of measures
16,000 14,000
4.0
12,000 10,000
Newly obtainable trading price per unit area
3.0
8,000 6,000 4,000 0.67 2,000 0
2.0
1.52 0.74
1.0
0.0 Low-use and unused lands Abandoned cultivated lands
Urban compaction
Land recycling
Figure 6:
Newly obtainable trading price by improvement of the regional environmental balance (Conversion into present value).
4 Discussion and conclusions

An interregional cap and trade system using EF developed by Ujihara et al. [3] is expected to become an effective tool to promote voluntary measures intended for improvement of the environmental balance in the region. In fact, the system is discussed as one efficient tool for a growth strategy in the Panel on Infrastructure
395
Development [1]. This is a breakthrough move that raises the feasibility of this system. Although a larger movement can take place at the national level, it is necessary to examine, for exploration of future prospects of this system, whether it becomes a structure that can contribute to improvement of the environmental balance from the viewpoint of financial resources for urban and regional planning. This study proposed a mechanism for securing financial resources based on an interregional cap and trade system using EF. Based on this mechanism, the study explored future prospects of the system to examine effects on financial resources for urban and regional planning. Results of those analyses show that trading prices related with interregional cap and trade systems using EF are highly influential for financial resources intended for urban and regional planning. The case study demonstrated the possibility that implementation costs are covered by the trading price, even if large-scale measures that drastically reform the regional structure are implemented. However, the mechanism for improving environmental balance aimed at the region side burdened with the expenses should be considered in the future. It is important to present a widely varied planning menu of considerations to regionalism, not only costly land-use measures but also inexpensive measures to promote the environmentally conscious behavior of residents.
References
[1] Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, http://www.mlit .go.jp/policy/shingikai/s204_toshikeikakuseido01.html, 2010. (Accessed on August 30, 2010). (in Japanese) [2] Wackernagel, M., Rees, W. E., Our Ecological Footprint: Reducing Human Impact on the Earth. New Society Publishers, 1996. (Canada). [3] Ujihara, T., Taniguchi, M., Matsunaka, R., Interregional cap & trade program using ecological footprint: national land use planning for balanced environment. Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan 43, pp.877882, 2008. (in Japanese) [4] Bicknell, K.B., Ball, R.J., Cullen, R., Bigsby, H.R, New methodology for the ecological footprint with an application to the New Zealand economy. Ecological Economics 27, pp.149160, 1998. [5] Ferng, J.-J., Using composition of land multiplier to estimate ecological footprint associated with production activity. Ecological Economics 37, pp.159172, 2001. [6] WWF, Living Planet Report. http://assets.panda.org/downloads/ living_planet_report.pdf, 2006 (accessed on August 20, 2010). [7] Folke, C., Jansson, A., Larsson, J., Costanza, R., Ecosystem, Appropriation by cities. Amboi 26(3), pp.167172, 1997. [8] Barrett, J., Vallack, H., Jones, A., Haq, G., A Material Flow Analysis and Ecological Footprint of York. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2002. [9] Taniguchi, M., Hirofumi, A., Shigekane, K., Prefectural balance sheet of the environment study based on the ecological footprint . Studies in Regional Science 34(1), pp.2335, 2003. (in Japanese)

[10] Best Foot Forward, City Limits A resource flow and ecological footprint analysis of Greater London, 2004. [11] Bagliani, M., Galli, A., Niccolucci, V., Marchettini, N., Ecological footprint analysis applied to a sub-national area: The case of the Province of Siena (Italy). Journal of Environmental Management 86, pp.354364, 2008. [12] Barrett, J., Scott, A., An Ecological Footprint of Liverpool: Developing Sustainable Scenarios. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2001. [13] James, N., Desai, P., One Planet Living in the Thames Gateway-A WWFUK One Million Sustainable Homes Campaign Report, WWF-UK, Surrey, UK, 2003. [14] Kiyooka, T., Taniguchi, M., Matsunaka, R., Study of sustainability of local scale land-use based on the Ecological Footprint index. Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan 403, pp.5560, 2005. (in Japanese) [15] Muiz, I., Galindo, A., Urban form and the ecological footprint of commuting. The case of Barcelona, Ecological Economics 55, pp.499-514, 2005. [16] Ujihara, T., Taniguchi, M., Matsunaka, R., Sustainability of city planning based on the ecological footprint indicator: Balance between environmental load and environmental capacity. Selected Papers Environmental Systems Research 36, pp.207215, 2008. (in Japanese) [17] Andersson, J.O., Lindroth, M., Ecologically unsustainable trade. Ecological Economics 37, 113122, 2001. [18] Ohl, B., Wolf, S., Anderson, W., A modest proposal: global rationalization of ecological footprint to eliminate ecological debt. Sustainability: Science, Practice, & Policy 4(1), pp.516, 2008. [19] Global Footprint Network, Ecological Footprint Standards 2009. http://www. footprintnet-work.org/images/uploads/Ecological_Footprint _Standards_2009.pdf, 2009. (accessed on October 21, 2009). [20] Ujihara, T., Furuichi, S., Shirato, S., Taniguchi, M., Evaluation for environmental balance of local governmentscale based on the ecological footprint: By using practical calculation package EF-Calc, Proceedings of 38th annual meeting of environmental systems research, pp.245-251, 2010. (in Japanese) [21] Japan Real Estate Institute, http://www.reinet.or.jp/, 2005. (accessed on February 30, 2008) (in Japanese) [22] Yahoo Japan Finance, http://quote.yahoo.co.jp/, 2009. (accessed on November 30, 2009) (in Japanese) [23] Point Carbon, http://www.pointcarbon.com/, 2009. (accessed on August 30, 2010) [24] Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, http://www.soumu.go.jp /iken/zaisei/card-8.html, 2009. (accessed on April 30, 2009) (in Japanese)
397
A scale for architectural design compactness: a mathematical approach

M. M. Saeed
Architectural Department, College of Engineering, University of Salahaddin, Iraq
Abstract
The topic of compactness is significantly connected to sustainability, due to its impact in understanding and managing the process of shape-space formation, which may lead to an energy efficient design. This paper is a complement to a research delivered to a scientific conference of the Iraqi University of Technology in 1999 by the same researcher, discussing the concept of architectural design compactness, its prospects and development, the recent paper distinguishes between the shape compactness and the design compactness, and suggests a scale for the latter. The methodology adopted in this paper is, after defining the function of the architectural design compactness, reviewing all the relevant available scales and discussing their function to find whether they are sufficient to measure the design compactness. Discovering the contradictions of these scales results, lead to the necessity of deriving an objective and quantitative scale for the latter which is the aim of this paper. By analyzing the function of the architectural design compactness as a dependent variable, the independent variables which the latter relatively varies accordingly were devised, and then the scale is mathematically derived. Reliability of the scale has been verified by comparing the computed design compactness values of various building systems with their subjective evaluation; it shows a remarkable consistence with them. A model of abstract plans representing various design systems is prepared to evaluate their compactness to be used as guidelines for designers. The derived scale can be developed in a subsequent paper to establish a system for evaluating the compactness of multi-storey buildings by taking into account the rate of change for all external surfaces (walls and roofs). Keywords: architectural design, compactness, shape factor, perimeter, surface area, volume, space, form.
1 Introduction
Architectural design compactness is one of the powerful tools that can be exploited to design energy efficient buildings meeting sustainability requirements. It can control the architectural design process, and also can be the complementary aspect to the evaluation of heat resistance of building components for controlling heat loss and gain. Compactness in contrast to looseness in the architectural design describes the degree of joining and attachment of building spaces. Buildings are considered compact when the shared sides of internal spaces (and with adjoining buildings) increase, and not only when the perimeter decreases, and considered loose when the shared sides of internal spaces decrease and not only when exposed sides with the external open space increase. Although there are many scales available for measuring the compactness of shapes or solids form, there is a lack of a quantitative scale for measuring architectural design compactness which if measured by the abstract shape and form scales may lead to a misunderstanding and contradiction of the architectural design evaluation. In this paper, the proposed scale deals with single storey architectural systems, which consist of rectangular spaces connected to each other due to their attachment and sharing their sides partially or completely with others and with the external open spaces.
2 Methodology
2.1 Review of the preceding studies Although compactness of architectural design has not been studied as an independent subject, many researchers referred to, when studying environmental design, or cost analysis of building enclosure, explained its effect, and concluded that the external perimeter of building varies according to the building shape and that a compact building is one that has a maximum floor area with a minimum perimeter. Blackwell [1] put the first step toward compactness by studying the properties of abstract geometrical shapes and their area/ perimeter ratios, for various sides proportion varying from (1) to (100). To explain the variation of perimeter relative to the side proportion, Blackwell did not use the absolute value of area/ perimeter ratio, but he related it to the same ratio of a circle of similar area to get a dimensionless value representing the degree of compactness for a shape and presented it graphically (fig. 1). Evans [2], Burberry [3] and Vandenberg [4] went a farther step by introducing models representing the variation of perimeter relative to the compactness of the shape. The first, presented a model (fig. 2) of nine abstract forms, five of them single storey residential units of equal area but of different shapes, he compared the value of their exposed surface area to show their variation relative to shape when the floor area is constant. The second, plot a graph of three lines representing the heat loss ratios for three houses of 100 m2 area, and of 1:1, 1:2 and 1:3 sides proportion (fig. 3), and he explained the reasons for dissimilarity
399
of heat loss, due to the unequal surface area of the three cases. The latter presented five abstract forms (fig. 4), two of them of equal area but of different shapes, he compared their wall to floor area to show the effect of shape on cost.
Figure 1:
Area/perimeter factor relative to sides proportion.
Figure 2:
Variation of exposed surface area relative to shape.
Figure 3:
Variation of heat loss relative to aspect ratio.

10m
Perimeter (m) Area (m2) of enclosing walls (8 per m2) Floor area (m2) Wall/floor ratio
Shape A 12 36 9 40
B 24 72 36 20
C 40 120 100 12
D 80 240 400 06
E 100 300 400 075
Figure 4:
Variation of wall cost relative to shape.
Lechner [5] refer to another variable effecting the value of compactness; the number of units contained in a system, by presenting a model of four building blocks (fig. 5) for houses of equal areas and perimeter but each block contain different number of houses, he measured the average external exposed surface area of each house, for the four blocks and the saving in external walls due to the variation of the walls attaching the external space. All the presented studies had not defined values of design compactness to any model due to the lack of a scale.
Figure 5:
Variation of external wall cost relative to the number of units in a block.
401
Saeed [6] explained the necessity of a scale for measuring the compactness of the architectural design to indicate the degree of joining and attachment of the building spaces due to their pattern of arrangement, within the surface or a volume and developed a model measuring the variation of design compactness as a dependent variable in relative to all internal components perimeters and inversely with the sum of the exposed sides of the final shape formed by these components, as independent variables. 2.2 Reviewing the available compactness scales, factors and ratios Shape factor is an independent orientation, dimensionless number and agree with intuitive notions of what makes a shape compact [7]. Many scales, factors and ratios have been derived to describes compactness of shapes and forms, some of these are dimensional with units of (1/length), such as; Perimeter / Floor area ratio, or External envelope/Volume, nominated as Coefficient of Compactness which is measured by the equation; ke = A/Ve m-1 [810]. These scales can be used only to evaluate alternatives of a single system when one of the variables is constant, such as perimeter or floor area for the first scale, and A or Ve for the second. These factors cannot be considered as general scales due to their lack of the condition of being dimensionless numbers. Other scales such as; Wall / Floor area, External envelope / Floor area [4], although they are dimensionless, but still have the same lack of limited evaluation extent to a specific case, similar to the a.m. scales. Form factor derived by Mahdavi [11] or relative compactness as he can be an adequate measure for form nominated it- by his equation: RC = 6 compactness but not the design compactness. Generally, all these scales are sharing the attribute of measuring the variation of perimeter of a shape relative to its area, or the variation of surface area relative to its volume, in other words they are describing the shape of the surface, or the form of the volume, regardless the arrangement of the components of these surfaces or volumes, if they are loose or compact. These scales will face a contradiction in their results if intended to measure design compactness due to the fact that, well compacted solid (evaluated by the shape factor) have not necessarily a compacted arrangement of cells, the reverse is true too, less compacted solid can contain well compacted arrangement of cells. To present an example explaining this fact, assume three volumes containing cubical subdivision; A, B and C (fig. 6 ), A is the biggest in plan area, divided into four equal cubes, B has the same number of cubes as in A but smaller, C is similar in area to B but divided into nine equal cubes. All scales devoted to describe shape compactness will show higher value for A than B and C, because it has more unit volume per unit of surface area than the smaller ones, and equal values for B and C because both have similar unit volume per unit of surface area. While according to the explained design compactness function, compactness value of A is equal to B, because cells in both volumes are compactness of C > A and B because cells in C are more attaching each other internally and less exposed to the external space than A and B.
A Figure 6:
Comparison of compactness for three volumes containing cubical subdivision.
2.3 Definition and variables of the architectural design compactness This paper distinguish between two different facts; shape compactness (nominated later as the shape factor) and the architectural design compactness, although both can measure two dimensional surfaces and three dimensional solids. Shape factor for two dimensional shapes is an abstract measure describing the degree of contract, shortening or elongation of a surface, and it is derived by comparing its perimeter to area ratio to that of the most compact shape with the same area; the square, if the circle shape excluded. While the architectural design compactness scale deals with plans of various shapes consisting of several internal cells (spaces), hence its value is associated significantly with the pattern of arrangement of these cells that establish the final shape and the degree of attachment between the cells and with the outdoor open space. Hence the architectural design compactness as a dependent variable varies relatively to the sum of components (cells) perimeter and inversely to the exposed sides of the final shape formed by these components, as independent variables, hence:
(1)
where
= architectural design compactness for a system. is the sum of components perimeter = + + = exposed sides of the final system. Hence:
(2)
where is a constant, can be substituted by unity, but the value of is chosen instead, due to the quadrangle shapes of all components, and to get balance by equal weights of both variables, and , hence:
(3)
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3 Mathematical approach to compactness

3.1 Shape factor (
)
for rectangular shapes
The geometrical shape of a constant area will be more compact whenever it contracts or shorten and the reverse is true, whenever it elongate or extend, its perimeter will increase and its compactness will decrease. Sides proportion of any rectangle describe its compactness regardless to its area, but to have a general scale capable to describe all shapes compactness, the ratio of perimeter value of a rectangle to a perimeter of a square of equal area can be utilized, which nominated as the shape factor. Assuming a rectangle of area ( ), side proportion (r) and shape factor ( ). The sides of the rectangle will be . , The perimeter of the rectangle = 2 . 2
.
The perimeter of a square of similar area =4 By definition; hence (4) (5)
Table 1:
Shape factor values (

Aspect Ratio 1: 1.0 1: 1.1 1: 1.2 1: 1.3 1: 1.4 1: 1.5 1: 1.6 1: 1.7 1: 1.8 1: 1.9 1: 2 1: 2.5 1: 3 1: 3.5 1: 4 1: 4.5 1: 5 1: 10 1: 15 1: 20 1: 30 Shape Factor 1.000 1.001 1.004 1.009 1.014 1.021 1.028 1.035 1.043 1.052 1.060 1.107 1.155 1.200 1.250 1.296 1.341 1.739 2.065 2.348 2.830
).
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

The shape factor is a dimensionless value, having no relation to area, depending only on sides proportion. Hence the shape factor for a square is unity, for a circle is ( of rectangles.
. Table 1 indicates values of (

)
for various side proportion
3.2 Shape factor (
for three dimensional forms (or form factor)
Shape factor ( ) for three dimensional forms (or form factor) can be defined as; the ratio of surface area value of a solid to a cube surfaces area value of equal volume. Mahdavi [11] have derived an equation for measuring this factor: 6 (6)
where
= Volume of any solid. S = Surface area of the solid.
3.3 Architectural design compactness ( ) for two dimensional shapes By definition of the Shape Factor for two dimensional shapes ( perimeter of a single rectangle is: 4 . where is the perimeter of any rectangle. its area. its shape factor. the summation of perimeters of a detached group of rectangles is 4 . . = . . . where But by definition of design compactness,
),
the (7)
(8)
(9)
Substituting the values
in eqn.(9) by its value in eqn.(8) we get

.
(10)
which means that the design compactness equal to the summation of the square root of each space area in a system multiplied by their corresponding shape factors divided by the sum of the exposed sides of the form. Mathematical derivation reveals that shape factor of cells is one of the variables that design compactness varies according to, in addition to the independent variable representing the number of building spaces that a shape consists of. Average value of design compactness may equal unity which represent a well compact design, less compact design can have lower value, down to 0.25 which represent a detached single square, or even less values, at the same time it can have values more than unity for a very well compact design.
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4 Results: discussing the compactness of design systems

In order to compare the compactness of some usual building systems such as linear, square and the courtyard types, a model of abstract plans is prepared, consisting of square units representing the spaces as shown in fig. 7, their compactness were calculated and showed the following results which can be used as guidelines for designers: 1. For continuous linear systems which represent attached housing: (a) For systems of two units depth, and spaces of depth equal to the external side, fig. 7A. The compactness value will be the unity as follows 1
(b) If the depth of the attached house is three spaces, fig. 7B, the compactness will be 3 2 1.5
(c) For a similar system as in 1(a) but with a ratio of space depth to the external side of (r), fig.7C, compactness will be
which means that compactness will equal the square roots of the aspect ratio. 2. For continuous linear systems consisting of double loaded corridor which represent office buildings as an example; (a) If the corridor width is 1/3 of the spaces width, and the building length is nine units, fig.7D, the compactness will be 18 2.25 22.66 9 3
0.97
(b) For a similar system as in 2(a) but if the aspect ratio of the spaces is (r) fig. 7E, the compactness will be 9 18 2.25 3 0.97 22.66 which means that if the aspect ratio is 1.5 as an example the compactness will be 1.19.
A B
Figure 7:
A model of abstract plans consisting of square units representing the spaces in an architectural abstract plan.
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3. For square form building consisting of ( ) number of square spaces (a) If the building is detached, fig.7F, compactness will equal the square root of the number of the spaces divided by four. And it will increase whenever the number of spaces increase. 4 4 (b) For a system similar to 3(a) but attached from three sides and with an internal courtyards representing formal housing, fig.7G assuming to consist of nine spaces (3*3) eight of them indoor and one courtyard space, compactness will equal: 8 1.14 7 It is concluded that these systems can result in high values of compactness.
5 Conclusion
1. This paper distinguishes between two different scales; shape factor and architectural design compactness. shape factor can describe compactness of abstract (2D) geometrical shapes, while architectural design compactness measures the joining and attachment of the sides of the spaces of a system. The equations, for evaluating both scales are derived. 2. The design compactness scale can be the complementary aspect to the evaluation of heat resistance of building components for controlling heat loss and gain in buildings regardless to the building area, loosed design should have higher values of heat insulations. 3. The derived equation enables computing the external exposed sides of a building before the design stage, depending on the building program and the assumed compactness. 4. Compactness for any design system can be calculated using the method explained in section 4 of this paper, before the design stage to choose the appropriate one. 5. The range of the equation can be extended in a consequent paper to cover the design compactness of three dimensional volumes.
References
[1] Blackwell, W. Area-perimeter ratios (chapter one), Time Saver Standard for architectural design data, Callender, J.H. pp. 72-74 (1982). [2] Evans, M. Housing, Climate and comfort, The Architectural Press- London, pp. 37. [3] Burberry, P. Environment and Services, BT Batsford Limited London, p. 82. [4] Vandenberg, Maritz, AJ Handbook for Building Enclosure, pp. 3135. (1986).

[5] Lechner, N. Heating, Cooling and Lighting Design methods for architects, John Wiley & Sons Inc. pp. 441. (2001). [6] Saeed, M.M. A scale for compactness. Proceeding of the 5th Iraqi Technological Conference of the University of Technology, Iraq (1999). [7] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compactness_measure_of_a_shape [8] Andreas W., Mathias W., Sabine F. web-based method to generate specific energy consumption data for the evaluation and optimization of building operation. University Karlsruhe (TH) - Department of Architecture. Building Physics and Technical Building Services. [9] Yurij A. M., Mark C., Cliff M. Forty-Percent Savings and Beyond -Recent Advances in Code Implementation and Development of SuperEfficient Buildings in Russia and Other CIS Countries Center for Energy Efficiency and Research Institute for Building Physics. Institute for Market Transformation. [10] Zuzana, SVUPS-Nova Slovak republic Implementation of the EPBD in Slovak Republic (2007). [11] Mahdavi, A. Computational building models: theme and four variations. Eighth International IBPSA Conference. Eindhoven, Netherlands Department of Building Physics and Human Ecology. Vienna University of Technology A-1040, Vienna Austria. (2003).
409
Bumblebees as potential indicators for the evaluation of habitat quality

I. Diaz-Forero, V. Kuusemets, M. Mnd & J. Luig
Institute of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Estonian University of Life Sciences, Estonia
Abstract
Habitat fragmentation, decline and degradation are considered important threats to biodiversity and the principal processes that contribute to landscape change. It is fundamental to understand the quality of habitats (and the location of suitable ones) to develop appropriate biodiversity conservation strategies. Insects are considered key indicators of environmental change due to their diversity of habitat characteristics and requirements. Habitat quality may be assessed by its suitability for insects using important ecological differences between generalist and specialist species. Specialist species are more severely affected by the degradation and decrease of suitable habitats than generalists, as they are dependent on specific types of flowering plants or local environments. In our study, we collected data on five species of long-tongued bumblebees (gen. Bombus) including B. pascuorum, B. hortorum, B. ruderarius, B. sylvarum and B. distinguedus. The richness and abundance of long-tongued bumblebee species were recorded in 22 semi-natural meadows in Northeast Estonia. We identified abiotic and biotic factors, at both patch and landscape scale, which significantly impacted total species richness and abundance of long-tongued bumblebees. Overall, we found that besides the availability of food resources in the habitat, it is important to bear in mind the quality and diversity of the surrounding matrix when designing biodiversity conservation strategies. In countries with patchy landscapes, like Estonia, it is important to consider ecological indicators that are strongly associated with both patch and landscape variables. Therefore, bumblebees have the potential to serve as good indicator species for habitat quality. Keywords: long-tongued bumblebees, species richness, flowering plants, landscape structure.
1 Introduction
The main processes that contribute to landscape change are habitat fragmentation, decline and degradation; these are also important threats to biodiversity [1]. Fischer and Lindenmayer [1] considered habitat degradation to be the gradual deterioration in quality of an area of habitat for a given species. Many definitions have been given to habitat quality [2]. In our study, we adopted the one presented by Hall et al. [3]; they defined habitat quality as the ability of the environment to provide conditions appropriate for individual and population persistence. It is well known and widely accepted in many countries that bumblebees and other important pollinators are declining [47]. The intensification of agriculture has led to the reduction of suitable habitats and decrease of food resources for pollinators [8, 9]. It is fundamental to become acquainted with the quality of the remaining habitats and the location of suitable ones in order to develop appropriate biodiversity conservation strategies. To do that, we must know what indicators can be used to evaluate habitat quality. Long-tongued bumblebees are important pollinators of deep perennial flowers. Longer-tongued species have shown increasing vulnerability in the United Kingdom. Goulson et al. [10] found that "the most severely affected species tend to be those with long tongues associated with deep perennial flowers". In contrast, Williams and Osborne [7] found that long tongues and food-plant specialisation were not associated with declines of bumblebee species. However, some studies agreed that further research is required on the ecology of rare species and the role of diet specialisation in bumblebee decline (e.g. [4, 7, 11]). In our study, we collected field data on five species of long-tongued bumblebees: B. pascuorum, B. hortorum, B. ruderarius, B. sylvarum and B. distinguendus. We identified biotic and abiotic factors, at both patch and landscape scale, which may be significant indicators for species richness and abundance of long-tongued bumblebees. In addition, we discuss why bumblebees could be used as potential indicators of habitat quality.
2 Materials and methods

We completed field work during the summers of 2008 and 2009 in Ida-Virumaa, a county in northeast Estonia. This region has a very patchy landscape mosaic with a variety of land cover types, predominantly forest, arable land and meadow. Even though northeastern Estonia has been impacted by mining activities, it is still considered a region that supports a significant number of species and abundance of pollinators, including bumblebees [12]. In both years, we visited 22 semi-natural meadows and sampled each meadow two times. Bumblebee counts took place in June, July and August, and were completed within approximately 45 minutes. We performed systematic walking surveys [13] during the warmer part of the day, between 11:00 h and 16:00 h, when weather conditions were suitable (i.e., temperature was above 18C and wind
411
speed was less than 5 as measured by the Beaufort scale). The identification of species and counting of individual bumblebees was done by sight. When the observer could not identify the species, the bumblebee was caught with an insect net for later identification. The nomenclature of the insects follows that used in the Fauna Europaea Web Service [14]. In this study, we used our data on total species richness and abundance of long-tongued (LT) bumblebees (i.e., B. pascuorum, B. hortorum, B. ruderarius, B sylvarum and B. distinguendus). At patch scale, we measured the following variables: species richness of flowering plants, percent cover of flowering plants, patch area, shape, fractal dimension index and edge density. We identified the flowering plants and counted the number of species on site. Percent cover of flowering plants was recorded via a visual estimation of the overall coverage at each study site. We used the total number of species of flowering plants and the arithmetic means of the four observations of percent cover of flowering plants. At landscape scale, we considered the following indices: patch richness density (PRD), interspersion and juxtaposition index (IJI), edge density at landscape level (ED_Land) and Shannons diversity index (SHDI). In addition, we calculated the proportion of different land cover types around the study areas (i.e., arable land, meadow, forest and human settlements). Calculations were performed with ArcGIS 9.3 software using the digital Estonian Basic Map provided by the Estonian Land Board at a scale of 1:10,000. All landscape variables were estimated at four spatial scales (250, 500, 1000 and 2000 m radius). Fragstats software (Version 3.3) was used to compute the patch and landscape indices. In this study, Spearman rank order correlations were performed to analyse the relationships between species richness or abundance of long-tongued bumblebees and our variables at patch and landscape scale.

3.1 Long-tongued (LT) bumblebees and their relationships with patch and landscape variables We found five species of LT bumblebees: B. pascuorum, B. hortorum, B. ruderarius, B. sylvarum and B. distinguendus. Total species richness and abundance of LT bumblebees ranged from 1 to 4 species and from 2 to 29 individuals, respectively. The most abundant species were B. pascuorum and B. ruderarius, whereas B. distinguendus was extremely rare. The results from correlation analyses are presented in Table 1. We found that both species richness and abundance of LT bumblebees had positive relationships with species richness of flowering plants and percent cover of flowering plants. The higher the availability and diversity of food resources in the habitat, the better the bumblebees chances of finding the flowering plant species they require. In addition, the dispersal distances of some rare species of bumblebees are very restricted, depending on resources within the habitat or in compensating areas, such as edges. Some rare, long-tongued species have a rather small foraging range (e.g., B. distinguendus) [15]. In general, increasing

the presence of flowering plant species in semi-natural meadows enhances both the species richness and abundance of bumblebees by providing better quality habitats. This is consistent with previous studies on bumblebees (e.g. [5, 11, 16]). Table 1: Variable Relationships between long-tongued bumblebees and variables at patch and landscape scale. Spatial scale (m radius) Long-tongued bumblebees Species richnessa Abundancea 0.67*** 0.76*** 0.58** -0.10 -0.01 0.09 0.10 0.44* 0.42*
Flowering plant species richness Percent cover 0.61** of flowering plants Proportion of 500 -0.45* forest (%) 1000 -0.45* Proportion of 1000 0.55** meadows (%) 2000 0.58** Edge density 500 0.27 at landscape 1000 0.39 level (ED_Land) (m/ha) Shannons 2000 0.54** diversity index (SHDI) a Spearman rank correlation coefficients (rs) are shown * Correlations significant at P < 0.05 ** Correlations significant at P < 0.01 *** Correlations significant at P < 0.001
0.36
At landscape scale, we found that species richness of LT bumblebees correlated positively with proportion of meadows at 1000 m and 2000 m. Similarly, Hatfield and LeBuhn [17] found that the most consistent positive influence on species richness and abundance of bumblebees was the proportion of meadows in the surrounding landscape, at a 2-km buffer from the edge of the focal habitat. In general, bumblebees have large foraging ranges [1719]. Even though some LT bumblebee species have short foraging distances, as mentioned above, other species are known to fly more than 2000 m (e.g., B. pascuorum) [20]. Dispersal abilities of bumblebees allow them to retrieve floral resources in adjacent meadows, increasing the probability of individuals finding flowering plants [17]. In addition, LT bumblebee abundance correlated positively with ED_Land at 500 m and 1000 m. There is a strong dependency of bumblebee abundance on the availability of flowering plants. Kumar et al. [13] explained that habitat
413
edges contain a great abundance and diversity of floral resources, making them suitable places for flower visitors. Also, the presence of edges and other compensating areas is very important to bumblebee survival, especially in patchy landscapes with diverse land cover types. Sepp et al. [21] explained that forest edges are particularly important in April and May, when bumblebee queens mostly forage flowering willows that are commonly found in the forest edges of Estonia. Positive relationships were found between species richness of LT bumblebees and SHDI at 2000 m. This landscape index indicates the level of complexity of the surrounding matrix, as the higher the value of SHDI, the higher the number of patch types and the more equitable the distribution of those patch types across the landscape [22]. Other authors have found similar positive relationships between insects and the diversity of the landscape matrix [23, 24]. Williams and Osborne [7] suggested that the ability of bumblebees to fly long distances from the colony makes them less susceptible to the fragmentation and patchiness of the landscape, as they become more flexible in the utilisation of food resources. The presence of different patch types in the surrounding landscape of their habitats increases the probabilities of finding suitable habitat fragments with the needed flowering plant species; concurrently, this enhances the survival possibility of bumblebee species. In contrast, negative correlations were found between species richness of LT bumblebees and proportion of forest at 500 m and 1000 m. These results suggest that some species of LT bumblebees prefer open areas. In general, LT bumblebee species have specialised diets and are expected to visit a particular type of flowering plants; those flowers are more likely to be found in open areas than in patches of forest. Similarly, Bckman and Tiainen [16] found that the longtongued species B. ruderarius prefers open habitats. Additionally, it has been suggested that early-emerging bumblebee species are associated with forests while late-emerging species are associated with grasslands; most late-emerging species are medium or long-tongued bumblebees [11]. Other variables at patch scale (i.e., patch area, shape, fractal dimension index and edge density) and landscape scale (i.e., proportion of arable land, proportion of human settlements, PRD and IJI) do not appear to be important for LT bumblebee species richness and abundance. 3.2 Bumblebees as potential indicators of habitat quality Ecological indicators can be defined as factors that communicate important information about ecosystems and the impact of human activities on them. Ecosystems are complex and the use of ecological indicators is needed in order to describe them in simpler terms that can be understood and used by scientists and non-scientists alike to make management decisions [25]. Insects are considered key indicators of environmental change due to their diversity of habitat characteristics and requirements. The role of insects as ecological indicators has been tested and studied extensively (e.g. [21, 26]). Bees are a vital element of global biodiversity and an important group of pollinators, as they play a key role in supporting not only crops, but also the diversity of

natural and semi-natural vegetation [27, 28] and the survival of other organisms [4, 27]. Among bees, bumblebees are considered to be the best-documented group [6]. Bumblebees are known to be sensitive to environmental changes and serve as good indicators of habitat quality [21, 29]. In Estonia, bumblebees are considered significant indicators of habitat and landscape diversity [5], and have been proposed as biodiversity indicators at the landscape level of the agri-environmental programme [21]. As we mentioned above, bumblebees and other pollinators are at risk. Thus, there is a current need for the protection of endangered species as well as the conservation of their habitats. Semi-natural habitats, such as meadows, are areas of important value for bumblebees, as they provide essential resources like food and nesting sites [30, 31]. In a recent study, Le Fon et al. [32] found that bees were negatively associated with agricultural intensification, while they were affected positively by the amount of semi-natural habitats in the surrounding landscape. Some conservationists studies of endangered species have emphasised the role and importance of large-scale dynamics (e.g. [27]); it therefore appears relevant to consider interactions between species and landscape elements when developing biodiversity conservation strategies. Hatfield and LeBuhn [17] suggested that bumblebee communities provide an excellent model for evaluating the importance of factors at patch and landscape scale. Even though bumblebees are known to have large foraging distances [17 19], they appear to display a high dependency on their central foraging place [17, 33]. Our results show that bumblebees are related with variables at patch scale (i.e., species richness of flowering plants and percent cover of flowering plants) as well as variables at landscape scale (i.e., proportion of meadows, proportion of forest, ED_Land and SHDI) in different ways. Habitat quality may be assessed by its suitability for insects [34] using important ecological differences between generalists and specialist species. Specialist species are more susceptible to degradation and decrease of suitable habitats than generalists because they are dependent on specific types of habitats or flowering plants. A greater tongue length in bumblebees has been suggested as one factor that confers greater susceptibility to decline on some bumblebee species [7].
4 Conclusions
Overall, we found that not only the availability of food resources at patch level, but also the quality and diversity of the surrounding matrix, are important factors affecting the species richness and abundance of long-tongued bumblebees. Landscapes with high percentages of meadows, with a strong presence of edges and a diverse matrix, may support a higher diversity and abundance of longtongued bumblebees. With the presence of adjacent patches of meadow and habitat edges in the surrounding landscape, there is an increased probability that bumblebees will encounter floral resources during their life cycle. In addition, it appears that the ability of bumblebees to fly long distances makes them less vulnerable to the level of fragmentation and patchiness in a given landscape.
415
In countries with patchy landscapes, like Estonia, it is important to consider ecological indicators that are strongly associated with both patch and landscape variables. Bumblebees, because of their reliance on these variables, have the potential to serve as accurate indicators of habitat quality.
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[1] Fischer, J. & Lindenmayer, D.B., Landscape modification and habitat fragmentation: a synthesis. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 16(3), pp. 265280, 2007. [2] Mortelliti, A., Amori, G. & Boitani, L., The role of habitat quality in fragmented landscapes: a conceptual overview and prospectus for future research. Oecologia, 163(2), pp. 535547, 2010. [3] Hall, L.S., Krausman, P.R. & Morrison, M.L., The habitat concept and a plea for standard terminology. Wildlife Society Bulletin, 25, pp. 173182, 1997. [4] Goulson, D., Hanley, M.E., Darvill, B. & Ellis, J.S., Biotope associations and the decline of bumblebees (Bombus spp.). Journal of Insect Conservation, 10(2), pp. 95103, 2006. [5] Mnd, M., Mnd, R. & Williams, I.H., Bumblebees in the agricultural landscape of Estonia. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 89(1-2), pp. 6976, 2002. [6] Potts, S.G., Biesmeijer, J.C., Kremen, C., Neumann, P., Schweiger, O. & Kunin, W.E., Global pollinator declines: trends, impacts and drivers. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 25(6), pp. 345353, 2010. [7] Williams, P.H. & Osborne, J.L., Bumblebee vulnerability and conservation world-wide. Apidologie, 40(3), pp. 367387, 2009. [8] Carvell, C., Habitat use and conservation of bumblebees (Bombus spp.) under different grassland management regimes. Biological Conservation, 103(1), pp. 3349, 2002. [9] Xie, Z., Williams, P.H. & Tang, Y., The effect of grazing on bumblebees in the high rangelands of the eastern Tibetan Plateau of Sichuan. Journal of Insect Conservation, 12(6), pp. 695703, 2008. [10] Goulson, D., Lye, G.C. & Darvill, B., Decline and conservation of bumblebees. Annual Review of Entomology, 53, pp. 191208, 2008. [11] Goulson, D., Hanley, M.E., Darvill, B., Ellis, J.S. & Knight, M.E., Causes of rarity in bumblebees. Biological Conservation, 122(1), pp. 18, 2005. [12] Diaz-Forero, I., Liivamgi, A., Kuusemets, V. & Luig, J., Pollinator richness and abundance in Northeast Estonia: bumblebees, butterflies and dayflying moths. Forestry Studies | Metsanduslikud Uurimused, 53, pp. 5 14, 2010. [13] Kumar, S., Simonson, S.E. & Stohlgren, T.J., Effects of spatial heterogeneity on butterfly species richness in Rocky Mountain National Park, CO, USA. Biodiversity and Conservation, 18(3), pp. 739763, 2009. [14] Fauna Europaea Web Service. www.faunaeur.org

[15] Charman, T.G., Sears, J., Green, R.E. & Bourke, A.F.G., Conservation genetics, foraging distance and nest density of the scarce Great Yellow Bumblebee (Bombus distinguendus). Molecular Ecology, 19(13), pp. 2661 2674, 2010. [16] Bckman, J.P. & Tianen, J., Habitat quality of field margins in a Finnish farmland area for bumblebees (Hymenoptera: Bombus and Psithyrus). Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 89(1-2), pp. 5368, 2002. [17] Hatfield, R.G. & LeBuhn, G., Patch and landscape factors shape community assemblage of bumble bees, Bombus spp. (Hymenoptera: Apidae), in montane meadows. Biological Conservation, 139(1-2), pp. 150158, 2007. [18] Steffan-Dewenter, I., Mnzenberg, U., Brger, C., Thies, C. & Tscharntke, T., Scale-dependent effects of landscape context on three pollinator guilds. Ecology, 83(5), pp. 14211432, 2002. [19] Westphal, C., Steffan-Dewenter, I. & Tscharntke, T., Bumblebees experience landscapes at different spatial scales: possible implications for coexistence. Oecologia, 149(2), pp. 289300, 2006. [20] Zurbuchen, A., Landert, L., Klaiber, J. Muller, A., Hein, S. & Dorn, S., Maximum foraging ranges in solitary bees: only a few individuals have the capability to cover long foraging distances. Biological Conservation, 143(3), pp. 669676, 2010. [21] Sepp, K., Mikk, M., Mnd, M. & Truu, J. Bumblebee communities as an indicator for landscape monitoring in the agri-environmental programme. Landscape and Urban Planning, 67(1-4), pp. 173183, 2004. [22] Eiden, G., Kayadjanian, M. & Vidal, C., From land cover to landscape diversity in the European Union, Chapter 1. Capturing landscape structures: Tools. ec.europa.eu/agriculture/publi/landscape/ch1.htm [23] Kivinen, S., Luoto, M., Kuussaari, M. & Helenius, J., Multi-species richness of boreal agricultural landscapes: effects of climate, biotope, soil and geographical location. Journal of Biogeography, 33(5), pp. 862875, 2006. [24] Steffan-Dewenter, I., Importance of habitat area and landscape context for species richness of bees and wasps in fragmented orchard meadows. Conservation biology, 17(4), pp. 10361044, 2003. [25] Girardin, P., Bockstaller, C. & Van der Werf, H., Indicators: Tools to evaluate the environmental impacts of farming systems. Journal of Sustainable Agriculture, 13(4), pp. 621, 1999. [26] Billeter, R., Liira, J., Bailey, D., Bugter, R., Arens, P., Augenstein, I., Aviron, S., Baudry, J., Bukacek, R., Burel, F., Cerny, M., De Blust, G., De Cock, R., Diekotter, T., Dietz, H., Dirksen, J., Dormann, C., Durka, W., Frenzel, M., Hamersky, R., Hendrickx, F., Herzog, F., Klotz, S., Koolstra, B., Lausch, A., Le Coeur, D., Maelfait, J.P., Opdam, P., Roubalova, M., Schermann, A., Schermann, N., Schmidt, T., Schweiger, O., Smulders, M.J.M., Speelmans, M., Simova, P., Verboom, J., van Wingerden, W.K.R.E., Zobel, M. & Edwards, P.J., Indicators for biodiversity in
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Environmental management options for mitigation of congestion impacts in the Atatrk Urban forest of Bursa, Turkey
S. Gurluk1, G. Atanur2 & O. Turan1
1 2
Department of Agricultural Economics, Uludag University, Turkey Department of Landscape Architecture, Uludag University, Turkey
Abstract
The current paper presents the results of a contingent valuation for evaluating the environmental quality in the Atatrk Urban Forest of Bursa, Turkey. The environmental quality parameter under investigation at this recreational site is congestion. Congestion is an important externality having impacts that both limit common facilities and damage natural ecosystems. When users have to pay the same price for lower environmental quality, degraded ecosystems can cause negative impacts on users satisfaction levels due to congestion. We employed a qualitative response model to learn the covariate effects and mean willingness to pay for shifting congestion levels. Welfare effects of congestion levels offer robust policy options to local policy-makers and on-site management. Consequences point to a resource enlarging policy rather than restrictions on visitor numbers. Keywords: congestion, contingent valuation, payment card, survivor model.
1 Introduction
Forest ecosystems, consisting of the physical and biological components of the environment, indicate a stable structure. An important piece of the forest ecosystem, human impacts cause important environmental externalities by interfering in that structural stability. Fundamentals of environmental issues depend on production and consumption incentives. Those incentives creating environmental externalities linked to economic efficiency principle are not considered for resource allocation. The reasons inefficient resource allocation is that environmental goods and services have the tendency to become public

goods, non-trade goods and infinite goods. Individuals who want to buy private goods consider both characteristics of a private good and its quality levels while making choices. After all, there is no market price for environmental goods and services as mentioned earlier. If natural resources had a market price, environmental pollution and quality levels would be expected to be at lower levels (Nielsen et al. [22]; Bell and Leeworthy [5]). Also, a zero level of environmental pollution and high-quality degradation mean that there is no activity in the natural resources. Therefore the incentives, raising a communitys welfare, damaging environmental quality, and partially causing environmental pollution are inevitable although this stance is not supported by some environmental protectionists. However the environmental damages and losses should be kept at optimal levels. In other words, policy makers should consider the carrying capacity of nature while making choices regarding public access (Hanley and Spash [17]; Smith [24]). An important externality, regarding the carrying capacity of nature and a communitys welfare, is congestion. Forest-based recreational sites that comprise the main topic of the current study are affected by the congestion externality. Especially open green areas, city parks, national parks, and similar sites provide recreational opportunities such as picnicking, camping, trekking, hiking, and viewing nature. These activities contribute to individuals in the daily solitude of their lives in terms of moral motivation, regeneration of spiritual and mental wellbeing (Choi [11], Zhu and Zhang [26]). Increasing population, shifting community structure, and a more frenetic lifestyle have increased peoples needs to return to nature and ecological leisure activities have in turn increased outdoor recreational demand and consequently caused the congestion externality mentioned above. This rapid growth in demand increases the importance of problem of congestion in forest-based recreational sites due to ecological and social costs. Individual willingness to pay (WTP) for deteriorated environmental quality can be reduced and the sites economic benefits to the community may decrease. The current study was carried out in a Turkish urban forest, which is designated as the Atatrk Urban Forest of Bursa (AUFB). The AUFB is located in the northwest part of Turkey and was founded in memory of Atatrk who established the Turkish Republic. The City of Bursa used to be known as Green Bursa and was an important agricultural settlement because of its productive plains. Today, Bursa is an important industrial city and home to automotive and textile industries. The City of Bursa began taking emigrants at an increasing rate due to the employment possibilities created, and became the fourth biggest city of Turkey in terms of population. As rapid urbanization and population increases bring overcrowding issues to the cities, it creates industrial and urban pressures on the green belt (Atmi et al. [2]). In this context, efficient management of existing green areas has gained great importance. AUFBs ecosystem services provide important use and non-use benefits for the region such as recreational use, habitats for native species, regulation of atmospheric quality, and landscape amenities. It has facilitates for activities such as picnicking, cycling, hiking, and observing scenic views.
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The AUFB was turned over to Bursa Nilufer Local Management by the General Directories of National Parks of the Ministry of Forest-Turkey. It has an area of 128 hectares (ha) and this area is dedicated to conservation area (50 ha), fender land (54 ha) and flood control and forestation (8 ha) while the remaining part of 16 ha is open to visitor uses. The site management has maintained that an area of only 6.75 ha is open for visitor use, and the remaining area is in parking lots. The General Directorate of National Parks recommends that the maximum visitor rate for the site be 70 m2 per capita. However Nilufer local management has not restricted visitor rates. Within current policy, the forest ecosystem of the site has been degraded due to congestion, and public welfare is negatively affected by this policy. Additionally, The AUFB experiences wildfires every two to three years. Although management issues are being experienced, the AUFB is an appealing recreation site because it is very close to downtown and has fresh air due to high altitude (AUFB, 2008). Observable prices of social welfare losses and ecological deteriorations due to congestion dont exist in the regular market. It is necessary to employ users valuation of non-marketed goods such as urban forests and improved environmental quality. A contingent valuation study dependent on the payment card technique is employed and visitors to reveal their WTP over various congestion levels. More information on the survey technique, contributions to current literature and other explanations are available in the materials and methods section of this study.

Research material consists of face-to-face surveys administered in the AUFB. The AUFB matches the urban type recreational site classification according to Rosenthal and Walsh. Given this classification, land and water recreational sites are separated into five distinct indicators which are labeled as: remoteness of site, location of area, evidence of humans, user density, and existence of managerial activities. The AUFB is an accessible recreation site that is served by various public transportation vehicles and private transportation. It is very close to the city of Bursa, and these features make the site very busy. The industrial city of Bursa is growing and this causes some issues such as congestion in the parks and pressures to green areas in the Bursa. While the previous issue is related to optimal resource use, the latter issue is related to total value of the resources. In this context, after the priori meetings with site management, a more convenient survey form for studying the visitor profile was constituted. The resource evaluating and congestion-testing survey study, which has following characteristics, was administered to the AUFB visitors in May and June of 2010. The surveys had three sections. Primarily, main aims of survey and natural resource values were explained and described to the respondents. In the first section of the questionnaire, users recreational behaviors were investigated. Respondents starting points to the site, past visits, duration of travel time to the site, and familiarity with outdoor activities offered at the site was investigated. In

section two, respondents were interviewed in terms of users utilization of the resources available. Environmental quality concerns show different congestion types in the AUFB. So a brief informational statement about congestion types was introduced to respondents in third section. It was assumed that each respondent experiences and assesses five different congestion types in the AUFB. The information regarding congestion levels presented to respondents is given in Appendix section of this paper. After this brief explanation, respondents were asked a WTP question about a randomly selected congestion type. For this purpose, a payment card was shown and respondents were asked to mark how much they would be willing to pay for selected congestion type. The last section consisted of demographic inquiries while keeping respondents anonymous. The respondents attitudes on environmental protection, sustainable development, and efficient resource use were investigated in the last section. Thus, total of 200 respondents completed the survey via the face to face survey method. The frequency distribution relating to demographic structure of the respondents in the survey is given in Table 1. Table 1: Frequency distribution of respondents' demographic structure in the survey.
Variable Gender Description Male Female 19-25 26-30 Age groups 31-40 41-60 60-85 Annual household income < 9600 9600-12800 12801-20000 > 20000 Primary school Education level High school University degree Distribution (%) 87.5 12.5 4.5 9.0 41.5 41.0 4.0 23.0 25.0 31.5 20.5 16.5 49.5 34.0
Until recently, several papers examined non-market valuation on congestion impacts although the papers examining the congestion at the recreational sites are limited. Anderson and Bonsor (1974), Cicchetti and Smith [12] were among the first authors who tried to measure congestion through willingness to pay. Cesario [10] emphasized the importance of congestion by stating that any individual visiting a site would be willing to pay some positive amount of money for the right to visit the site when they are fewer visitors. McConnell [21]
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demonstrated how the WTP function can be used to determine the optimal capacity of beaches while Walsh et al. [25] investigates the effects of congestion at ski areas to evaluate policy options. Jakus and Shaw [20] stressed that the congestion valuation is not only important from the ecological viewpoint but also from the human perspective. The current study assumes that visitors trip decisions are based on past experiences, advance expectations, and environmental attitudes. Therefore we take into account the WTP directly by evaluating ex ante and ex post measures of congestion. Furthermore we examine the effects of visitors socio-economic structure and environmental attitudes on congestion valuation and urban forest management. In this context dependent variable WTP is the value that total number of past and future visits is multiplied by pointed WTP amount on the payment card presented. After measuring the covariates impacts on congestion, we employed the survivor function to calculate mean WTP without covariates. Correlation of different congestion types from the respondents arises when a single model is estimated for all congestion types. A random effect linear regression model is as follows: Yij = + Sij + 1D2 + 2 D3 + 3D4 + 4D5 + Eij + i + i i = 1, 2, , n j = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (1)
where the Yij is dollar value of the WTP for individual i, Sij is explanatory variables such as demographic variables and attitudes for individual i, D represents the dummy variables for congestion levels on a 15 scale, E is respondents attitudes on environmental protection and , , , are unknown parameters to be estimated. The coefficients 1, 2 , 3 , 4 indicate, respectively, how much larger (or lower) the response functions for congestion models C2, C3, C4 and C5 are than the one for congestion model C1. Thus the 1, 2 , 3 , 4 measure the differential effects of the qualitative variable classes i is the random coefficient that accounts for the correlations among the evaluations for respondent I and is assumed to be normally distributed with mean 0 and variance 2 across all respondents. ij is the random error term with mean 0 and variance 2. Qualitative and quantitative variables used in the statistical analysis are described in Table 2 while their summary statistics are given in Table 3.

Qualitative variable regression analysis was undertaken by using SPSS software to identify the factors associated with responses to the payment card WTP question. The parameter estimates of the qualitative variable regression analysis for WTP of the AUFB are shown in Table 4. The coefficients for the explanatory variables are also the marginal effects for those variables. They might be tested via t-values individually. Instead, we employed F-test to understand if the regression equation as a whole is significant. The F-test is a joint test of the

Table 2: Variables WTP D2, D3, D4, D5 Gender Age Income Sus_Dev_Sens Sens_to_biodiversity Effic_res_use Descriptions of variables. Explanations Dollar value of WTP for randomly selected congestion level Dummy variables representing congestion levels C2, C3, C4 and C5 1: Male, 0: Female Age of respondents 1: If respondents' household income is more than 20,000USD annually 0: Otherwise Sustainable development sensitivity of respondent 1: Strong, 2:Neutral, 3: Weak acceptance Respondent's sensitivity to biodiversity, 1: Strong acceptance, 2:Acceptance, 3: Neutral, 4: Not acceptable, 5: Weak acceptance Respondent's attitude to efficient resource use 1: Strong acceptance, 2:Acceptance, 3: Neutral, 4: Not acceptable, 5: Weak acceptance Summary statistics of covariates. Mean 0.88 40.72 0.20 1.62 2.38 2.44 Std.Dev. 0.332 9.893 0.401 0.597 0.944 1.124 Min. 0 19 0 1 1 1 Max. 1 81 1 3 5 5
Table 3: Variables Gender Age Income Sus_Dev_Sens Sens_to_biodiversity Effic_res_use
hypotheses that all the coefficients except the constant term are zero (Greene [13]). If all the slopes are zero, the multiple correlation coefficients are zero as well. Thus, the F-test is based on the value of R2 as following
F k 1, n k
1 R n k
2
R 2 k 1
(3)
when k and n are the numbers of variables and sample size, respectively. The R2 value was 0.219 and thus the value of F1[9,190] was 5.91. We can infer from the
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F-test results for significance of the qualitative regressions. Given to the F-test result, which is larger than the 95 percent critical values of 1.88, we conclude that the data are inconsistent with the hypothesis that all the slopes in the models are zero. Table 4: Parameter Intercept D_2 D_3 D_4 D_5 Gender Age h_income Sus_dev_sens Sens_to_biod Effic_res_use R2 Parameter estimates for the qualitative response model. Variables 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 3 0,219 Estimates 37,053 11,412 -9,568 -30,689 -41,213 10,378 -0,082 1,004 -11,926 3,920 7,450 Std. Error 21,251 9,590 9,723 9,652 9,897 9,883 0,315 7,983 5,368 3,362 2,827 t-value 1,744 1,190 -0,984 -3,180 -4,164 1,050 -0,262 0,126 -2,222 1,166 2,635
3.1 The impacts of covariates of demographic structure In the model, the gender variable has positive sign. This suggests that males are more inclined to increasing the WTP amount than females. If the coefficients of variables, except dummy variables and gender, are multiplied by their mean values, we can measure congestion impacts over gender. Table 5 indicates the mean WTP values according to gender and shifting congestion levels. Table 5: Impacts of gender for shifting congestion levels.
Male mean WTP 34.98 42.60 28.60 14.52 7.50 Female mean WTP 28.06 35.67 21.68 7.60 0.60
Congestion levels I II III IV V

Given the information in Table 5, there is a difference of 19.3 percent between the mean WTP of the congestion levels I and V, and females suffer more from congestion compared to males. Rather, we can infer from the table that solitude is more valuable to females. The age variable has negative sign. The mean WTPs for shifting congestion levels are calculated, in Table 6, by considering mid-points of any class representing age groups. Table 6: Impacts of age groups for shifting congestion levels. Congestion Levels Age Groups 19-25 26-30 31-40 41-60
*
C1 36.00
*
C2 43.61 43.29 42.88 42.06 40.85
C3 29.63 29.30 28.89 28.07 26.87
C4 15.55 15.23 14.81 13.99 12.79
C5 8.53 8.20 7.79 6.97 5.77
35.68 34.84 34.44
60-85 33.24 Means willingness to pay.
Generally one may said that the respondents prefer the congestion level-II with a higher WTP amount compared to other levels. This is because covariate impacts are interpreted as showing that security worries dominate congestion level-I preferences. Boxall et al. [7] states that, by supporting this consequence, in the initial range of congestion it is possible that a visitor will be indifferent or even value an additional encounter. Income has a positive impact over the WTP. If we consider that those who have 20000 USD/year salaries are in a high income level, we may maintain the existence of income effects among lower income groups. Only twenty percent of respondents have over 20000 USD/year salaries. In this context, we can state that the visitors of the AUBF are from the medium or lower income groups. Heinen [19], Grlk and Rehber [14] observed similar consequences in their studies of peoples attitudes for the wildlife in National Parks in Nepal and Turkey, respectively. The positive attitudes were measured for protection of the parks, and found to be highly correlated with demographic factors of visitors. 3.2 The impacts of covariates of environmental attitudes The respondents were investigated in three parameters in terms of environmental behaviors and attitudes. Those parameters are: general sensitivity to environment and sustainability, sensitivity to biodiversity of the site, and optimal resource use. The respondents sensitivity to sustainable development was linked to controlled industrial growth. This implies that the respondents are more tend to WTP as long as the sensitivity of sustainable development. In other words, a respondent who has a strong attitude about sustainable development tends to
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make higher payments due to shifting congestion levels than other respondents. Sensitivity to biodiversity parameter has a positive sign. Consequently it implies that the respondents WTP increases even if they are non-sensitive to biodiversity. Likewise, sensitivity to optimal resource use has a positive impact over the WTP amounts at the decreasing sensitivity. As a consequence we may infer that the respondents tend to lower WTP for the last two investigations due to prejudices about restricted recreational activities, although they are sensitive to general environmental protection. Thus, a policy regarding recreational sites expansion, rather than the policy of restricted visitor rates, may be preferred in order to raise visitor satisfaction. Therefore it is likely that the visitors welfare level increases with the resource expansion policy. Table 8 supports that view. The impacts of optimal resource use parameter was examined in a three scales, strong, medium, and weak, and linked to higher and lower income groups. Results indicate that the impacts of income groups, in terms of efficient resource use, dont create an important difference in assessing the congestion levels. Consequences point out, again, the resource enlarging policy rather than restrictions.
4 Conclusions
In this paper we have examined environmental quality measurement in a highdensity urban forest, Atatrk Urban Forest of Bursa (AUFB), by considering the congestion parameter. Congestion is an important externality regarding the carrying capacity of nature and a communitys welfare. When the congestion externality exists in a recreational site, the quality of the recreational activities experienced by users deteriorates. Such externalities can limit common facilitates and damage natural ecosystems. Consequently, users pay the same price for lesser environmental quality, and it causes diminishing human welfare. Although there are many policy options to resolve issues in the AUFB, the options of resource expansion and visitor restriction come forward in order to mitigate congestion effects in this high density urban forest. Qualitative response models have considerable features on measuring the respondents environmental attitudes and socio-economic characteristics to shifting congestion levels. Findings show that the willingness to pay for decreasing congestion externality indicates increases up to 98 percent depending on age groups and gender. The respondents environmental behaviors and attitudes provide important insights to policy makers. Those parameters were examined under three sections, which are the sensitivity to general environmental protection, biodiversity, and optimal resource use. Consequences emphasize that resource expansion policy was preferred, rather than a visitorrestriction policy, by the AUFBs visitors. In other words, visitors welfare levels increase with the application of the resource expansion policy. Local park management does not take the congestion into consideration regarding onsite management. Respondents prefer the congestion level-II with a higher WTP amount (Table 7). The mean WTP for congestion level-II was 42.5 USD per visit while it was 7.5 USD for the congestion level-V. It accounts for

about 1,000,000 USD welfare losses annually due to current policy. Congestion in a forest-based recreational site makes the quality of the recreational activities worse than uncongested condition. The estimated reduced welfare values have supported this phenomenon in the AUFB. Table 7: Impacts of visitors attitudes for efficient resource use to shifting congestion levels. Congestion Levels Income levels Higher income Efficient Resource use Strong Medium Weak Strong Lower income Medium Weak C1 28,37 38,30 48,23 27,70 37,63 47,57 C2 35,97 45,91 55,84 35,31 45,24 55,17 C3 21,99 31,92 41,85 21,32 31,25 41,19 C4 7,91 17,84 27,77 7,24 17,17 27,11 C5 0,89 10,83 20,76 0,23 10,15 29,57
Appendix Congestion levels

Level I: In this level of congestion, there are few individuals around and also noise does not occur. Level II: In this level of congestion, there are a couple of groups of visitors around and the noise level is low. Level III: In this level of congestion, there are some visible individuals around, common user facilitates can be busy occasionally and the noise level I is higher than level II. Level IV: In this level of congestion, you can observe many visitors around and a high noise level surrounds the site. The common user facilitates are busy and many hikers make the trail busy. Level V: In this level of congestion, recreational site is crowded so that you cannot walk without having to stop. The noise level higher than ever before and making conversations within a group can often be impossible.
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[2] Atmi, E., den, S., Wietze, L., 2007. Urbanization pressures on the natural forests in Turkey: An overview. Urban Forestry and Urban Greening. 6, 8392. [3] AUFB, 2008. Atatrk Urban Forest of Bursa Working Report, The Municipality of Bursa-Turkey. [4] Bateman, I.J., Carson, R.T., Day, B., Hanemann, M., Hanley, N., Hett, T., Jones, M., Loomes, G., Mourato, S., zdemirolu, E., Pearce, D., Sugden, R., Swanson, J., 2002. Economic Valuation with Stated Preference Techniques. Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, Cheltenham, UK. [5] Bell, F.W., Leeworthy, V.R., 1990. Recreational demand by tourists for saltwater beach days. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. 18, 189205. [6] Bowker, J. M., Stoll, J. R., 1988. Use of dichotomous choice non-market methods to value the whooping crane resource. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. May, 372-381. [7] Boxall, P., Rollins, K., Englin, J., 2003. Heterogeneous preferences for congestion during a wilderness experience. Resource and Energy Economics. 25, 177-195. [8] Boyle, K. J., Welsh, M. P., Bishop, R. C., 1988.Validation of empirical measures of welfare change: Comment. Land Economics. 64, 94-98. [9] Brent, R., 1998. CostBenefit Analysis for Developing Countries. Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, Cheltenham, UK. [10] Cesario, F.J., 1980. Congestion and the Valuation of Recreation Benefits. Land Economics. 56, 329-338. [11] Choi, K., 1998. Measuring congestion effects in a high-density recreational site. The unpublished PhD thesis, Department of Forestry of Iowa State University, Ames, USA. [12] Cicchetti, C. J., Smith, V. K., 1976. The costs of congestion: An econometric analysis of wilderness recreation. Ballinger, Cambridge, MA, USA. [13] Greene, W. H., 2003. Econometric Analysis. Prentice Hall, USA. [14] Grlk, S. and Rehber, E., 2008. A travel cost study to estimate recreational value for a bird refuge at Lake Manyas, Turkey. Journal of Environmental Management. Vol. 88, 1350-1360. [15] Haab, T.C., McConnell, E.K., 2002. Valuing Environmental and Natural Resources: the Econometrics of Non-market Valuation. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, Northampton, USA. [16] Hanemann, W. M., 1989. Welfare evaluations in contingent valuation experiments with discreet response data: Reply. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 71, 1057-1061. [17] Hanley, N., Spash, C.L., 1993. Cost-Benefit analysis and the environment. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, Northampton, USA. [18] Harrison, G.W., Kristrom, B., 1995. On the interpretation of responses in contingent valuation surveys. In: Johansson, P., Kristrm, B., Maler, K.G. (Eds.), Current Issues in Environmental Economics. Manchester University Press, UK.

[19] Heinen, J. T., 1993. Park-people relation in Kosi Tappu wildlife reserve, Nepal: a socio economic analysis. Environmental Conservation. 20, 25-34. [20] Jakus, P. Shaw, W.D., 1997. Congestion at Recreation Areas: Empirical Evidence on Perceptions, Mitigating Behaviour and management Preferences. Journal of Environmental Management. 50: 389-401. [21] McConnell, K.E., 1977. Congestion and Willingness to Pay: a Study of Beach Use. Land Economics. 53, 185-195. [22] Nielsen, A. B., Olsen, S. B., Lundhede, T., 2007. An economic valuation of the recreational benefits associated with nature-based forest management practices. Landscape and Urban Planning. 80, 63-71. [23] Rosenthal, D. H., Walsh, R. G., 1986. Hiking values and the recreation opportunity spectrum Forest Science. 32, 405-415. [24] Smith, R.J., 1971. The evaluation of recreation benefits: the Clawson Method in practice. Urban Studies. 8, 89102. [25] Walsh, R.G, Miller, N.P., Gilliam, L.O., 1983. Congestion and Willingness to Pay for Expansion of Skiing Capacity. Land Economics. 59, 195-210 [26] Zhu, P., Zhang, Y., 2008. Demand for urban forests in United States cities. Landscape and Urban Planning. 84, 293-300.
431
Monte Carlo analysis and its application within the valuation of technologies
S. . Aguilar, M. Dubov, J. Chudoba & A. arman
Institute of Novel Technologies and Applied Informatics, Technical University of Liberec, Czech Republic
Abstract
This work follows the paper entitled The Valuation and Financial Management of (Nano-) Technology in Relation to Sustainable Growth presented at the Third International Conference on Environmental Economics and Investment Assessment (Limassol, Cyprus, 2010), which demonstrated the practical usage of the general economic model on the valuation of a modern and original technology (nano-fibrous carrier) for wastewater treatment applying tailor-made microorganisms with the ability to create natural biofilm. The original general economic model for the valuation of wastewater treatment technologies is structured as follows: cost model wastewater treatment technology, depreciation model of wastewater treatment, cash flow model of wastewater treatment, sensitivity analysis. The authors extended this work on further calculations with the use of the Monte Carlo method, in order to analyze the characteristics of a projects net present value (NPV), the cash flow components that are impacted by uncertainty. These characteristics are modelled, incorporating any correlation, mathematically reflecting their random characteristics. Then, these results are combined in a histogram of NPV (i.e. the projects probability distribution), and the average NPV of the potential investment into the wastewater treatment technologies as well as its volatility and other sensitivities is observed. This distribution allows for an estimate of the probability that the project has a net present value greater than zero (or any other value). Keywords: Monte Carlo method, risk, net present value, valuation and financial management, general economic model, R&D projects, technology (nano-fibrous carrier) for wastewater treatment, sustainable growth.
1 Introduction
The actual development of nanotechnology influences a great part of the industrial branches. The application of nanotechnologies represents for certain companies an important step forward. The Institute of Novel Technologies and Applied Informatics, Technical University of Liberec, Czech Republic is in charge of research and application of nanotechnologies. One of the main tasks of the centre is the research and development of nanotechnologies applied to the industrial wastewater treatment branches, in a more concrete way it is concerned about the development of microfibrous biomass carrier in biological wastewater treatment facilities. The research is in charge of a multidisciplinary scientific team which includes disciplines as chemistry, natural sciences, development of textile materials, mathematic modelling and informatics. Last but not least is the integration of ideas coming from the branch of financial management and valuation [1, 2]. This might contribute to answering the question if the technology can be commercially attractive. The aim if this article is to make an analysis of advantages and disadvantages of the Monte Carlo valuation method and its application to the technology of nanofibrous biomass carrier for purposes of biological wastewater treatment. This work follows the article entitled The Valuation and Financial Management of (Nano-) Technology in Relation to Sustainable Growth presented in the Third International Conference on Environmental Economics and Investment Assessment (Limassol, Cyprus, 2010) [3], which demonstrated the practical usage of the general economic model on the valuation of a modern and original technology (nano-fibrous carrier) for wastewater treatment applying tailor-made microorganisms with ability to create natural biofilm. The original general economic model for the valuation of wastewater treatment technologies is structured as follows: Cost model wastewater treatment technology Depreciation model of wastewater treatment Cash flow model of wastewater treatment Sensitivity analysis [3].
The authors extended this work on further calculations with the use of the Monte Carlo method, in order to analyze the characteristics of a projects net present value (NPV), the cash flow components that are impacted by uncertainty. These characteristics are modelled, incorporating any correlation, mathematically reflecting their random characteristics. Then, these results are combined in a histogram of NPV (i.e. the projects probability distribution), and the average NPV of the potential investment into the wastewater treatment technologies as well as its volatility and other sensitivities is observed. This distribution allows for an estimate of the probability that the project has a net present value greater than zero (or any other value).
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2 Risk and technology appraisal Monte Carlo method

One of the fundamental characteristics of the valuation of investments in research and development of new technologies is its focus on the expected cash flow. The cash flow future values are difficult to predict, therefore it is necessary to include risk management processes in the research. Our research team decided to enhance the actual economic model with software that is able to quantify the risks related to the investment of the developed technology. One of the fundamental indicators for the valuation of technologies is the net present value (NPV), which helps us to determine if it is worth to invest on certain technology [46]. If we want to know the probability at which a project achieves determinate NPV, or at which range will be NPV located, it is necessary to apply other methods that are able to change input parameters in a stochastic way. In such cases we can apply Monte Carlo methods. These methods are helpful in order to observe the influence in changes in the input variables (NPV). Monte Carlo methods are based on repeated random sampling that translates inputs into uncertainties in model outputs (results). The results of these processes are a set of detailed results that are consequently analyzed. The outputs of these simulations can determine for instance: the probability that the net present value is lower than the value originally defined, distribution function of the model outputs, mean values dispersion and dispersion of output indicators. These mentioned parameters are suitable for the consequent establishment of risks related to the investment of the developed technology. With the aid of the presented results it is possible to infer if it is convenient to pursue the investment. The advantages of this method are the following: each sampling has the same level of probability, it is possible to change all the inputs within a test, it is possible to establish the effect of several variable input parameters, it is possible to determine the probability of convenience of the investment. This value can consequently serves as input for the following analyses. The disadvantages of this method are mainly related to the difficult interpretation of the results and the time demands for the creation of the sets of results with the aid of Monte Carlo. The basic result from the random outputs is a distribution function (histogram) of the net present value of the investment. From the distribution function it is possible to know other parameters as for example the mean value of the output indicator with the aid of the following model:
E( X )
xf ( x)dx , where
f ( x)
dF ( x) dx
(1)

In a similar way it is possible to determine the dispersion value. The Monte Carlo method is based on repeated random trials. Under this method the estimation of the required values have probabilistic character and are inferred statistically. Practically random trials are substituted by results of certain calculation that is pursued with the application of random numbers. The level of the methods error related to the calculations is proportional to the value 1 / N , where N is the quantity of trials. The calculations error will be therefore, 50% lower with a four times greater quantity of attempts. This error is due to the effect of the central limit theorem. For the estimation of the quantity of simulations it is necessary to know the probability effect that has to be intercepted. It can even occur at the lowest probability. This probability is identified as pmin. The mean value of the estimation that the effect will occur at the lowest probability is: (2) where n quantity of trials mean value of the effects quantity. It is recommended that > 3. The problem appears with the assessment of the probability effect at the lowest probability pmin (pmin can show an assumed probability of investment loss). The first operation for the establishment of unknown input parameters is the generation of random numbers < 0,1 >, with the usage of standard procedures of software applications. Afterwards transformation relations help to generate numbers from the intervals to random numbers of the distribution. The most common transformations that can be used for the technology valuation are [79]: Data from the histogram. The input parameter is given the probability it occurs with and the sum of all the probabilities equals 1. From the basis of these probabilities is created a distribution function. Data from the distribution within the interval a, b
pmin n
x rand (b a ) a
(3)
Data from the normal distribution (it uses Box Muller transformations).
x 2 ln(rand1 ) cos(2 pi rand 2 )

Data from the normal distribution variance.)
(4)
N ( , 2 ) ( mean value,
2 ln(rand1 ) cos(2 pi rand 2 )
(5)
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3 Input generation for the software for the valuation with Monte Carlo method
For the application of the Monte Carlo Method it is necessary to create a model, from which it is possible to determine the required parameters for the calculation of NPV. In this paper we present two technologies for industrial waste water treatment as example of the application of this method. The two technologies refer to the wastewater treatment with Anoxkaldnes wheels [10] and with nanofibrous carriers. For the calculation of NPV with Monte Carlo Method it was necessary to define the following parameters: market price of DPG material, annual increments of the prices of DPG material, discount rate k, inflation rate, tax rate for corporations, volume of the investment for each year, year of the required investment return, acquisition costs, annual operation costs. For the market price of the DPG material it is adequate to apply constant or normal distribution, which has two mean value parameters and variance . The mean value is presented in our work by the assumed price of the material DPG in CZK/t. The variance is established through the aid of price changes in a certain time period, for instance through the model:
(x
i 1
)2
, (6)
n 1
where xi is the actual price for the last period. For the annual increment of prices of DPG it is adequate to apply histograms. For example in the case of the nanofibrous carrier DPG was defined an annual value of increment at 2%. With the aid of histograms it becomes feasible to define the following table: annual increment value 1% probability 10%, annual increment value 1,5% probability 20%, annual increment value 2% probability 20%, annual increment value 2,5% probability 20%, annual increment value 3% probability 20%, annual increment value 3,5% probability 10%. These values were taken based on experimental estimations. It was also possible to apply normal distribution. The parameter was 2% and the

variance might show its value by estimation according to the model above. The discount and tax rates are constant. The inflation rate can be estimated through histograms or normal distribution. The investment volume for each year is not possible to be implemented into the same model. For the simulation of these inputs it is necessary to describe different variations of the model. The results are then compared and the best possibility is established. A similar process is pursued for the year of required return. The acquisition operation costs can be constant (the values are determined based on analyses) or they can be established through histograms.
Figure 1:
Input Values I. Detail.
Figure 2:
Input Values II. Detail.
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In figures 1 and 2 detailed parts of the software are shown for the calculation of NPV with the Monte Carlo method. For certain input parameters it is possible to choose different types of distribution.
4 Simulation process of the Monte Carlo method for technology valuation

The Monte Carlo Method is based on a repeated random trial with different input parameters, therefore the input parameters have to be stochastic. The market price for the DPG material for the Anoxkaldnes technology and for the technology based on nanofibrous carrier, will have the following parameters, which were obtained through experimental estimations: = 65000 CZK/t a 10000 CZK/t. Similarly to the annual increment of prices for the DPG material it is possible to describe it through the histogram that is shown above. On the following tables there are presented inputs, for which it was pursued the calculation of NPV through Monte Carlo methods. The results of the analysis are presented through a distribution function for the correspondent technology. Table 1: Input data for the analysis (Nanofibrous Carrier).
Unit [CZK/t] [%] [year/t] [%] [%] [%] x [%] [%] [%] [year] [CZK] [CZK/year] Value 65 000,00 2 158 8 2 19 X 100 0 0 15 25 000 000,00 2 505 000,00 Distribution Normal Histogram Constant Histogram Histogram Constant X Constant Constant Constant Constant Constant Constant
Input Value Market Price DPG material Market prices DPG. annual increment Annual production increment DPG material Discounting rate k Inflation rate Tax rates for corporations Investment during each year of investment: 1.year 2. year 3. year Year of expected investment return Acquisition Costs Operation costs a year

Table 2:
Input Value Market Price DPG material Market prices DPG. annual increment Annual production increment DPG material Discounting rate k Inflation rate Tax rates for corporations Investment during each year of investment: 1.year 2. year 3. year Year of expected investment return Acquisition Costs Operation costs a year
Input Values for the analysis (Anoxkaldnes).

Unit [CZK/t] [%] [year/t] [%] [%] [%] x [%] [%] [%] [year] [CZK] [CZK/year] Value 65 000,00 2 968 8 2 19 X 100 0 0 15 46 024 000,00 526 600,00 Distribution Normal Histogram Constant Histogram Histogram Constant X Constant Constant Constant Constant Constant Constant
Course of the first sampling: First, there are generated two random numbers, which are necessary for the description of the parameter Market price of the DPG material. Through the transformation x
2 ln( rand1 ) cos(2 pi rand 2 ) the actual value of
the parameter is determined, that is introduced to the program within one sampling. The first will be used for the indicator Annual increment of the price for DPG material and the second for the Inflation rate. For the generated number is the parameters value determined by a distribution. For example generated number is 0,7654, and then the annual increment of the DPG material is 3%. For all these generated input indicators there are established all the outputs from the software and the result is registered in a vector. This procedure is repeated for all the samplings. The resulting vectors are presented in ascending order and for each element it is given the correspondent probability according to the model
pi
i 0,5 n ,
(7)
where i 1, n . A detail of a resulting vector is shown in Table 3.
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Table 3:
Output vector, nanofibrous carrier detail.

NPV -12344000 -7336000 -705000 713000 2516000 4079000 4639000 4864000 5228000 5319000 5927000 6089000 6104608 6126000 6161000
Probability 0,0005 0,0015 0,0025 0,0035 0,0045 0,0055 0,0065 0,0075 0,0085 0,0095 0,0105 0,0115 0,0125 0,0135 0,0145
In Figures 3 and 4 there is a detail of the distribution function NPV for all the given values of the selected parameters. From the resulting vector presented in Table 3 and the distribution functions can be inferred the following outputs: The probability at which NPV might be lower than a certain value NPV might be lower than 15.106 CZK with the probability of 5,8% (nanofibrous carrier); 260.106 CZK (Anoxkaldnes technology) Distribution function fractile with 20% of probability will NPV be lower than 23 275 000 CZK (nanofibrous carrier), 321 900 000 CZK (Anoxkaldnes technology) Probability of a negative NPV for nanofibrous carrier is lower than 0,004%; for Anoxkaldnes technology 0,001%. The number was observed at 2000 samplings. The mean value, median (50% fractile), quartiles (25% and 75% fractile), interquartile interval. The results from different production strategies (volume of the investment for each year, year of expected return) can be compared also with the aid of box diagrams. From the estimations we can infer that one can expect positive values of NPV for both technologies. For the nanofibrous carrier technology is the probability of a negative NPV lower than 0,004%; for Anoxkladnes is lower than 0,001%. These results seem to be positive for potential investors in research and development for both technologies. From the results we can also observe that the mean value NPV for the expected year of return (15 years) is higher with the Anoxkaldnes technology.
Figure 3:
Distribution function for nanofibrous carrier.
Figure 4:
Distribution function for Anoxkaldnes carrier.
5 Conclusion
This paper presented an extension of the actual economic model with software based on the Monte Carlo Method. The benefit of this application for its users is the quantification of risks designated to the probability of which project might achieve certain net present value (NPV), in order to ease the decision making process of the investment and consequent commercialization of determinate developed technology. Other advantages of the Monte Carlo method are mainly: each sampling has the same level of probability, it is possible to change all the inputs within the correspondent test, it is possible to establish the effect of several variable input parameters,
441
it is possible to determine the probability of convenience of the investment. This value can consequently serve as input for the following analyses.
The disadvantages of this method are mainly related to the difficult interpretation of the results and the time demands for the creation of the sets of results with the aid of Monte Carlo. The research team plans to test this modified economic model in other developed technologies developed by the research team and to modify the economic model with the application of other sophisticated methods.
Acknowledgement
This article was created under the state subsidy of the Czech Republic within the research and development project Advanced Remediation Technologies and Processes Centre 1M0554 Programme of Research Centres supported by Ministry of Education.
References
[1] Kiklavov, L. Technologick nvrh biofilmovho reaktoru s nanovlkennm nosiem pro itn prmyslovch odpadnch vod [diploma project]. Liberec: Technick univerzita v Liberci Fakulta mechatroniky, informatiky a mezioborovch studi, 2009. [2] Nanotechnologie v R praktick aplikace 2006. [online], Pavel Houser. [cit. 2010-02-01]. Available at www: <http://businessworld.cz/ostatni/ nanotechnologie-v-cr-prakticke-aplikace-3595 [3] Aguilar, C. S., Dubov, M., Mucskov, E. The Valuation and Financial Management of (Nano-) Technology in Relation to Sustainable Growth. Waste Management and Environment V. WIT Press. Southampton 2010. 13 p. ISBN978-1-84564-460-4. [4] Arnold, G. Corporate Financial Management, 3rd. ed. UK: Pearson Education Limited, 2005. 1200 s. ISBN 0-273-68726-3. [5] Boer, F.P. Oceovn technologi, 1. ed. Brno: Zooner Press, s.r.o., 2007. ISBN 978-80-86815-66-4. [6] Brealey, R., A., Myers, S., C. Principles of Corporate Finance, New York: McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1996. ISBN 0-07-114053-0. [7] Virius, M. Aplikace matematick statistiky: Metoda Monte Carlo. 3rd ed. Praha: VUT, 1998. 168 s. ISBN 80-01-01779-6. [8] Fabian, F, Kluibert Z. Metoda Monte Carlo a monosti jejho uplatnn. 1st ed. Praha: Prospektrum, 1998. 148s. ISBN 80-7175-058-1. [9] Jckel, P. Monte Carlo methods in finance. 1st ed. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons, 2002. 219s. ISBN 0-471-49741-X. [10] Homepage of the technology AnoxKaldnes, http://www.anoxkaldnes.com/ Eng/c1prodc1/mbbr.htm,http://www.veoliawaterst.com/mbbr/cz/application s.htm
443
Assessment method for the ecological status of Estonian coastal waters based on submerged aquatic vegetation
K. Torn & G. Martin
Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Estonia
Abstract
In this paper water quality assessment system of Estonian coastal sea areas using submerged aquatic vegetation according to the Water Framework Directive of the European Community is described. Estonian coastal waters are divided to 6 national types covering 16 water bodies. The assessment system is based on three monitoring areas for each water body. Three metrics are used for water quality classification system based on phytobenthos: 1) the depth distribution of phytobenthos as the deepest occurrence of a single attached specimen; 2) the maximum depth distribution of Fucus vesiculosus as the deepest occurrence of singe plant specimens; 3) the proportion of perennial plant species in the observed community based on dry biomass of attached erect vegetation. Keywords: classification, coastal water, phytobenthos, water framework directive, ecological quality.
1 Introduction
In connection with the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) in the area of assessment of the ecological status of water bodies, the classification system should be developed. Classification systems should be based on different biological water quality elements indicating the status of water bodies. According to the WFD, three biological quality elements (phytoplankton, benthic invertebrate fauna and aquatic flora) should be used for coastal waters [1]. The principle of the whole assessment procedure is to measure deviation from reference condition. According to the normative definition of the WFD, reference conditions represent a status with no or only minor anthropogenic

impact. The actual description of reference conditions could be obtained from historical records, modelling exercise or even using an expert opinion. The determination of the ecological status has to be done type-specifically, which means for each type of coastal water reference conditions have to be identified. Biological indicators or metrics used in the assessment system have to react on different levels of anthropogenic pressure. Ecological status assessments shall permit classification of water bodies into five classes poor, bad, moderate, good and high. The WFD requires that good ecological status of surface water should achieved by 2015 [1]. Aquatic vegetation is used for assessment of water quality for decades both in fresh-water and marine environment [2]. Phytobenthos is good indicator of aquatic environmental health because the autotrophic species inhabiting the phytobenthos zone respond to changes in nutrient concentrations, light climate, toxic contaminants, mechanical stress and other human induced pressures. Responses of the macrophyte community to environmental stress could be regarded as an early warning signal of the community and ecosystem impairment [3]. Eutrophication influences different aspects of underwater vegetation, well documented are the decrease of biodiversity, decrease in vegetation depth penetration, substitution of perennial species with opportunistic filamentous algae [4, 5]. As most of the anthropogenic pressures cause alterations in the physical environment characteristics followed by short- or long-term effects in benthic communities, phytobenthos has proved to be very useful as integrating (both in time and space) biological indicator for conditions of coastal environment. A national water quality classification system for surface waters based on type specific reference conditions and fulfilling requirements of EU WFD was established in Estonia during early 2007. Here, we present an overview and description of the developed monitoring method and assessment system for implementing the Water Framework Directive based on indicators reflecting the status of phytobenthos in Estonian coastal waters.
2 Method description
2.1 Estonian national typology of coastal waters Estonia governs approximately 50 000 km2 of the Baltic Sea area of which about 10 000 km2 belongs to the coastal waters according to WFD definitions (sea area extending up to 1 nm from the baseline). Estonian coastal sea is divided into six national types. Coastal water types are defined on the basis of hydromorphological conditions as salinity (< 0.5, 0.5 to 5-6, 5-6 to 18-20, 18-20 to 30, > 30), depth (< 30 m, > 30 m), exposure to waves (extremely exposed, very exposed, exposed, moderately exposed, sheltered, very sheltered), mixing conditions (fully mixed, seasonally mixed, permanently mixed), water residence time (days, weeks months), dominating substratum (mud-silt, sand-gravel, cobble-hard rock, mixed sediment) and duration of ice cover (irregular, < 90 days, 90150 days, > 150 days (Table 1). Ranges of factors are predetermined by
445
Guidance document [6]. Due to the natural character of the Baltic Sea the actual salinity range of surface water in Estonian coastal area does not exceed 7.5. Table 1: Name of type Code of type Salinity (psu) Tidal range (m) Depth (m) Wave exposure Mixing conditions Residence time Substratum Ice cover Name of type Code of type Salinity (psu) Tidal range (m) Depth (m) Wave exposure Description of national types (based on [7]). Southeastern Gulf of Finland I 0.5-(5-6) <1 <30 >30 exposed seasonally mixed days sand-gravel cobble-hard rock 90-150 days Western Archipelago IV (5-6)-18 <1 <30 >30 exposed Prnu Bay II 0.5-(5-6) <1 <30 moderately exposed fully mixed weeks mud-silt sand-gravel 90-150 days Vinameri V (5-6)-18 <1 <30 very sheltered fully mixed days mud-silt sand-gravel 90-150 days Western Gulf of Finland III (5-6)-18 <1 >30 exposed permanently stratified days mixed sediment <90 days Gulf of Riga VI (5-6)-18 <1 <30 moderately exposed, sheltered seasonally mixed days mixed sediment <90 days
Mixing conditions seasonally mixed Residence time days Substratum sand-gravel cobble-hard rock Ice cover irregular
The Estonian coastal sea area is divided into 16 water bodies (Fig.1). Among those 15 are characterised as natural water bodies and one is attributed the category of heavily modified water bodies. This is due to the dyke constructed more than 100 years ago dividing Vike Strait (strait between Muhu and Saaremaa islands) into two, more or less independent parts without actual water exchange. In accordance with requirements of the WFD in water bodies which are identified as being at risk of failing to meet their environmental objectives, an operational monitoring programme is carried out. For this purpose, the initial assessment of the state of coastal water bodies was conducted on the bases of
2 5 4 3
6 7 8 16 15 13 11 9
Transect: Operational monitoring Surveillance monitoring Water body: 1 Narva-Kunda Bay 2 Eru-Ksmu Bay 3 Hara Bay 4 Kolga Bay 5 Muuga-Tallinn-Kakumgi Bay 6 Pakri Bay 7 Hiiu Shallow 8 Haapsalu Bay 9 Matsalu Bay Type: 10 Soela Strait I Gulf of Finland SE 11 Kihelkonna Bay II Prnu Bay 12 Gulf of Riga III Gulf of Finland W 13 Prnu Bay IV Western Archipelago 14 Kassari-unaku Bay V Vinameri 15 Vike Strait VI Gulf of Riga 16 Vinameri
10
14
12
Figure 1:
Location of transects, water bodies and types of coastal water in the Estonian coastal area.
previously existing information as well as data collected during the targeted monitoring programme. In Estonia 4 out of 16 water bodies are considered to be operational monitoring areas (Fig. 1). In this water bodies monitoring and assessments carried out every year during the 6 year assessment period. All other water bodies are monitored at least once during the assessment period within the surveillance monitoring programme. 2.2 Sampling procedure for phytobenthos Each water body includes three phytobenthos monitoring areas. These areas were selected based on previous knowledge on the distribution of phytobenthic communities as well as the character of the dominating substrate. In each sampling area the monitoring transect is placed with fixed start and endpoint coordinates (Fig. 1). Monitoring activities are carried out once per year during the late summer season (JulyAugust). The Estonian monitoring method is based on HELCOM COMBINE guidelines [8]. Monitoring is carried out along the imaginary transect line placed at 90 degrees to the shoreline from a predetermined starting point. Observations are carried out after each 1 m of depth change. Coverage descriptions are done in a 34 m wide visibility corridor. Observations are carried out to the deepest limit of vegetation. When the deepest limit is reached the possible occurrence of deeper vegetation is checked by drop underwater video camera. Along the monitoring transect total coverage of phytobenthos community, coverage of individual species and character of substrate is registered.
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For a quantitative description of phytobenthic communities the biomass samples are obtained from each different community type. Depending on the length of the transect biomass samples are taken from 5-7 depth intervals. Most commonly samples from depths 0.2, 0.5, 1-2, 2-3, 4-5 and 6-8 meters were collected. Quantitative biomass samples are taken always in three replicates, 20x20 cm frames with attached bag are used. Samples are stored in a deep freezer and later sorted and determined to species level in a laboratory. Each species is dried separately at 60C until constant weight is reached and the dry weight is measured with 0.0001 g accuracy. 2.3 Metrics description In Estonia three phytobenthos metrics are used for water quality classification system: 1) depth distribution of phytobenthos 2) depth distribution of bladderwrack, Fucus vesiculosus 3) proportion of perennial plant species in the community. To determine the depth distribution of phytobenthos the deepest occurrence of single attached vegetation is obtained by scuba-diver or by drop video camera. To determine the maximum depth distribution of Fucus vesiculosus the deepest occurrence of singe plant specimens are determined visually by scuba-diver. Proportion of perennial plant species in the Table 2: List of erect annual (A) and perennial (P) plant species.
Lifetime A A P P A A A A A A A A A A P P A A A A A P P P A P A Species name Monostroma balticum Myriophyllum spicatum Najas marina Percursaria percursa Pilayella littoralis Polyides rotundus Polysiphonia fibrillosa Polysiphonia fucoides Potamogeton pectinatus Potamogeton perfoliatus Ranunculus baudotii Ranunculus circinatus Rhizoclonium riparium Rhodochorton purpureum Rhodomela confervoides Ruppia cirrhosa Ruppia maritima Schoenoplectus tabernaemontanii Sphacelaria arctica Stictyosiphon tortilis Zannichellia palustris Zostera marina Tolypella nidifica Ulva intestinalis Ulva prolifera Urospora penicilliformis Lifetime A A A P A P A P A A A A A P P A A A P A A P A A A A
Species name Aglaothamnion roseum Ceramium tenuicorne Ceramium virgatum Ceratophyllum demersum Chaetomorpha linum Chara aspera Chara baltica Chara canescens Chara connivens Chara horrida Chara tomentosa Chorda filum Chroodactylon ornatum Cladophora glomerata Cladophora rupestris Coccotylus truncatus Dictyosiphon foeniculaceus Ectocarpus siliculosus Elachista fucicola Elodea canadensis Eudesme virescens Fucus radicans Fucus vesiculosus Furcellaria lumbricalis Halosiphon tomentosus Hildenbrandia rubra Leathesia difformis

phytobenthos community along the whole transect is calculated based on dry biomass of attached erect vegetation aggregated over the whole transect (Table 2). 2.4 Determination of reference conditions and establishments of water quality class boundaries Type specific reference conditions were defined for abovementioned metrics mostly in combination of historical data and expert judgement. Historical data are available from years 1961-1978 for maximum depth of vegetation and Fucus vesiculosus [9, 10]. Unfortunately no previous datasets with acceptable data quality exist for the most of the Estonian coastline. The amount and quality of the historical data vary in different areas. For some types, where historical data was insufficient, modelling was used. In these cases data from recent monitoring surveys were used to establish functional relationships of phytobenthos parameters, water quality indicators and reference conditions of pressure variables (nutrient concentrations, Secchi depth etc.). Table 3:
Metric
Type specific reference conditions and water quality class boundaries for the single phytobenthos metrics and EPI.
Unit Ref. cond. High >0.8 >8.0 >4.0 >68 >4.0 >48 >12.0 >5.6 >72 >12.0 >5.6 >72 >5.6 >56 >9.6 >4 >64 Good 0.8-0.5 8.0-5.0 4.0-2.5 68-42.5 4.0-2.5 48-30 12.07.5 5.6-3.5 72-45 12.07.5 5.6-3.5 72-45 5.6-3.5 56-35 9.6-6.0 4-2.5 64-40 Moderate <0.5-0.3 <5.0-3.0 <2.5-1.5 <42.525.5 <2.5-1.5 <30-18 <7.5-4.5 <3.5-2.1 <45-27 <7.5-4.5 <3.5-2.1 <45-27 <3.5-2.1 <35-21 <6.0-3.6 <2.5-1.5 <40-24 Bad <0.3-0.1 <3.0-1.0 <1.5-0.5 <25.5-8.5 <1.5-0.6 <18-6 <4.5-1.5 <2.1-0.7 <27-9 <4.5-1.5 <2.1-0.7 <27-9 <2.1-0.7 <21-7 <3.6-1.2 <1.5-0.5 <24-8 Poor <0.1 <1.0 <0.5 <8.5 <0.5 <6 <1.5 <0.7 <9 <1.5 <0.7 <9 <0.7 <7 <1.2 <0.5 <8
EPI EQR classes Type 1: Southeastern Gulf of Finland Vegetation m 10 depth Fucus depth m 5 Perennials % % 85 Type II: Prnu Bay Vegetation m 5 depth Perennials % % 60 Type III: Western Gulf of Finland Vegetation m 15 depth Fucus depth m 7 Perennials % % 90 Type IV: Western Archipelago Vegetation m 15 depth Fucus depth m 7 Perennials % % 90 Type V: Vinameri Fucus depth m 7 Perennials % % 70 Type VI: Gulf of Riga Vegetation m 12 depth Fucus depth m 5 Perennials % % 80
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The boundary setting system is based on the reference condition and a deviation of the acceptable reference conditions. According to OSPAR Common Procedure for Identification of the Eutrophication Status of the Maritime Area, the generally acceptable deviation from background concentrations or reference conditions is 50% [11, 12]. Boundaries between classes are determined according to scenario C (acceptable deviation from reference conditions 50%) [13]. The deviations from reference conditions and boundaries for all parameters and classes are given in table 3. 2.5 Assessment method For the calculation of the Estonian Phytobenthos Index (EPI) the average values of parameters of each transect are used (Fig. 2). Normalized EQRs of three metrics were calculated using the formula:
EQRmetric=
(Px-Pl)x(Eu-El) +El (Px-Pl)
Px measured value of parameter Pl lower class border of parameter Pu upper class border of parameter El lower class border of EQR value Eu upper class border of EQR value.
Figure 2:
Conceptual scheme of EPI for final EQR calculations. Metrics: A vegetation depth limit, B Fucus depth limit, C proportion of perennials.

For the final EQR average of metrics EQRs were used (Fig. 2). So the final assessment is performed using the aggregated data from two to three metrics and three monitoring areas from each water body.
3 Discussion
Currently, most EU countries have implemented the requirements of WFD and have established the water quality classification schemes for their coastal waters [14]. There is no unified guidance and methodological conditions set harmonising the actual monitoring methods and monitoring parameters/metrics but at the same time the results of the assessment and assessment schemes are going to be intercalibrated between countries. Special focus is set to ensure comparability of assessment results between countries. In the Baltic Sea variety of approaches is currently used in phytobenthos monitoring systems and water quality assessment schemes developed for the purpose of the WFD. These approaches differ between the countries and the regions of the Baltic Sea [14]. Estonian phytobenthos monitoring scheme was developed in the middle of 1990ies in close cooperation with Swedish and Finnish experts and was based on methodological guidelines published by Kautsky [1517]. Monitoring methods follow the principles of the Phytobenthos Monitoring Guidelines adopted by HELCOM [8]. The results of Estonian phytobenthos monitoring programme showed the suitability of these methods for use in water quality assessment schemes already before the implementation phase of WFD [18]. So, for the purpose of the water quality assessment scheme required by the WFD the theoretical background proved to be relevant for the particular sea area was used (e.g. [19, 20]) and the formalised assessment system created following the normative definitions of WFD. The established assessment system follows all the requirements set by the WFD, describing the changes in distribution pattern, structure of the communities and variability of sensitive species in relation to changes in water quality characteristics. In the case of the Baltic Sea, in most cases the ruling anthropogenic pressure is eutrophication and the described assessment system responds well to the changes in the eutrophication level [8].
Acknowledgements
The Estonian phytobenthos monitoring programme is financed by the Estonian Ministry of the Environment as a subproject of the Estonian Marine Monitoring Programme. This study was also supported by the Estonian Science Foundation grant no. 8775 and target financed project SF0180013s08 of the Estonian Ministry of Education. We want to thank our colleagues contributing to the performance and development of the Estonian phytobenthos monitoring programme by assistance in the field and laboratory.
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References
[1] Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy. Off. J. Eur. Communities, L372, pp. 1-73, 2000. [2] Carbiener, R., Trmolires, M., Mercier, J. L. & Ortscheit, A. Aquatic macrophyte communities as bioindicators of eutrophication in calcareous oligosaprobe stream waters (Upper Rhine plain, Alsace). Vegetatio, 86, pp. 71-88, 1990. [3] Orfanidis, S., Papathanasiou, V., Sabetta, L., Pinna, M., Gigi, V., Gounaris, S., Tsiagga1, E., Nakou, K. & Theodosiou1, T. H. Benthic macrophyte communities as bioindicators of transitional and coastal waters: relevant approaches and tools. Transit. Waters Bull., 3, pp. 45-49, 2007. [4] Rnnberg, C. & Bonsdorff, E. Baltic Sea eutrophication: area-specific ecological consequences. Hydrobiologia, 514(1), pp. 227-241, 2004. [5] Torn, K., Krause-Jensen, D. & Martin, G. Present and past depth distribution of bladderwrack (Fucus vesiculosus) in the Baltic Sea. Aquatic Botany, 84(1), pp. 53-62, 2006. [6] CIS Working Group 2.4. (Coast). Guidance on typology, reference conditions and classification systems for transitional and coastal waters, http://www.eutro.org/documents/wfd%20cis2.4%20(coast)%20guidance%2 0on%20tcw.pdf [7] Lips, U. Eesti rannikumere looduslikud tbid ja veekvaliteedi klassid. Eesti Mereakadeemia Toimetised, 2, pp. 62-73, 2005. [8] Guidelines for monitoring of phytobenthic plant and animal communities in the Baltic Sea. Annex for HELCOM COMBINE programme, HELCOM, http://www.helcom.fi/stc/files/CombineManual/PartC/AnnexC9.pdf [9] Trei, T. Lne-Eesti rannikuvete ftobentos. Tallinn: Doctoral thesis, pp. 1164, 1973. [10] Kukk, H. Benthic vegetation of the Gulf of Finland along the coastal waters of Soviet Union. Tallinn: Doctoral thesis, pp. 1-209, 1979 (in Russian). [11] 2003 Strategies of the OSPAR Commission for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic. II Eutrophication, http://www.ospar.org/content/content.asp?menu=00120000000070_000000 _000000 [12] Andersen, J. H., Conley, D. J. & Hedal, S. Paleo-ecology, reference conditions and classification of ecological status: The EU Water Framework Directive in practice. Mar. Pollut. Bull., 49, pp. 282-290, 2004. [13] Andersen, J. H., Schlter, L. & rtebjerg, G. Coastal eutrophication: recent developments in definitions and implications for monitoring strategies. J. Plankton Res., 28, pp. 621-628, 2006. [14] Baltic Sea GIG. Coastal and transitional waters. WFD Intercalibration Phase 2: Milestone 4 report. Coastal and transitional waters. [15] Kautsky, H. Factors structuring phytobenthic communities in the Baltic Sea. Akademitryck, Edsbruk, pp. 1-30, 1988.

[16] Kautsky, H. Quantitative distribution of plant and animal communities of the phytobenthic zone in the Baltic Sea. Contributions from the Ask laboratory: Stockholm, pp. 1- 80, 1989. [17] Kautsky, H. Quantitative distribution of sublittoral plant and animal communities in the Baltic Sea gradient. Biology and Ecology of Shallow Coastal Waters, eds. A. Elefteriou, A. Ansell & C. Smith Jr., Olsen & Olsen: Fredensborg, pp. 23-31, 1995. [18] Martin, G., Torn, K., Kotta, J. & Orav-Kotta, H. Estonian marine phytobenthos monitoring programme: preliminary results and future perspectives. Proceedings of the Estonian Academy of Sciences. Biology. Ecology, 52(2), pp. 112-124, 2003. [19] Martin, G. Phytobenthic communities of the Gulf of Riga and the Inner Sea of the West-Estonian Archipelago. Tartu University Press: Tartu, pp. 1-139, 2000. [20] Martin, G.; Torn, K. Classification and description of phytobenthic communities in the waters of the West-Estonian Archipelago Sea. Hydrobiologia, 514(1-3), pp. 151-162, 2004.
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Evaluation of oil shale mining heritage in Estonia

K. Metsaots1, K. Sepp1 & K. A. Roose2
1
Institute of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Estonian University of Life Sciences, Estonia 2 Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Estonia
Abstract
The evaluation of mining heritage and landscapes has been a topic of worldwide importance during the previous decades. Only a few sites are included in the UNESCO World Heritage List, but there are a great many of those that are considered to be restored as recreation and sports areas, connecting industrial and natural features and giving new usages for a site by exploiting ecological and creative landscape design methods. In Estonia, the subject has become important during the previous ten years refreshing and multifaceted solutions are needed to give a new life to mining landscapes. The aim of this article is to review the restoration history of oil shale mining sites (oil shale being the most important local mineral resource), to exemplify the two most representative developments in Europe, the Nord-Pas de Calais coal mining region in Northern France and the International Building Exhibition Frst-Pckler-Land in Lower Lusatia, Germany, to introduce existing restoration methods and developments of oil shale mining areas and elucidate future needs and goals. Keywords: industrial landscape, mining history, landscape restoration, restoration methods, recultivation.
Introduction
In Estonia, oil shale mining has already lasted for more than 90 years and the recultivation of mining sites has lasted around 50 years, but until now, not enough attention has been paid to the question regarding the extent of the landscape observed as whole in the course of reusing mining and industrial landscapes and in the process of technological and biological recultivation.

Across the whole world, the concept of connecting scientific and ecological principles with different social needs and functions in the process of planning mining landscapes, e.g. multifunctional cultural and recreational landscapes and visually attractive artificial landscapes, has been regarded as a field of study for several decades (Nassauer [1]; Ahern [2]; Hands and Brown [3]). Only a few (over 20) mining landscapes have been entered into the UNESCO World Heritage List as cultural heritage sites as having an outstanding value for the history of humankind, but there is a huge number of those that do not reach this level and landscape restoration and finding new functions remains a local issue. An argument is made for the heterogeneity of landscape, where ecological successions and their networks would support biological diversity, increase the enrichment and vitality of species (Jongman and Pungetti [4]; Lafortessa et al. [5]). The need for new and multifaceted solutions for restoring oil shale mining landscapes has been an issue in Estonia during the last ten years. Instead of implementing monospecific and monofunctional recultivation projects, it has to be considered that mining landscapes can be used in many different ways: as sports grounds, recreational and tourism areas. Mining landscapes and industrial objects offer good possibilities to implement innovative solutions. Preserving former mining settlements as distinctive milieu-valuable areas can improve local identity and prove to be a tourism attraction. Examples and experiences of other countries can be applied and the need for cooperation is evident. First, a review of oil shale mining is given. Second, the approach to landscape in the recultivation of mining areas is discussed. Third, what are given are the two most representative European examples of developing mining districts, which are mutually complementary. The Nord Pas de Calais coal mining region in Northern France was chosen for long-lasting connections between districts environmentalists and Estonian University of Life Sciences. The International Building Exhibition Frst-Pckler-Land in Lower Lusatia, Germany, was chosen due to the regions similarity to the oil shale mining region. In addition, some destinations have also been visited by one of the authors. Following that, the restoration methods and development of oil shale mining areas are introduced and finally, future needs and goals for the holistic growth of oil shale regions are determined and analyzed.
Retrospect view on the history of oil shale mining
Oil shale is the most important mineral resource in Estonia and among the major oil shale mining countries (Estonia, Russia, China, Brasil, Australia and Germany), Estonia holds the leading position with the highest quantity. It is the basis of Estonias energy production and chemical industry. Oil shale is mined in northeast Estonia, in East Viru County from the Estonian mineral deposit. Mining began in 1916 due to fuel deficiency during World War I. In three years, two mining districts developed Kohtla and Ubja. Thanks to the superior quality of its material Kohtla developed into a district centre. Mining began by open-pit mining. Later, underground mining began. At
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first, oil shale was only mined for the oil industry. Independent mines did not come into being until the occurrence of state capitalism with centralized leading (from 1940 in the German and from 1944 in the Russian system). State capitalism is dominant to this day. The mining plants of oil shale processing factories started work again as late as in the beginning of the 21st century in Kivili and Ubja. Production increased consistently and culminated with 30 million tonnes in 1980 in connection with launch of two large power plants the Baltic thermal power station in 1965 and the Estonian thermal power station in 1973. Import decreased and mining capacities started to diminish when in 1981, a nuclear power plant was put into operation in Sosnovy Bor in the former Soviet region Leningrad (Kattai [6]; Reinsalu [7]).
Figure 1:
Oil shale mining areas of the Estonian deposit (Eesti Plevkivi 2008). Dark yellow mines, light yellow quarries, grey excavated mines. (See online for colour version.)
Today, mining produces 15 million tonnes of oil shale per year. The amount of active resources reaches 1.1 billion tonnes, which is more than has been marketed during the 90 years of mining. Both underground mining and opencast excavation are used, up to the depth of 70 and 30 meters, accordingly (Sokman [8]). Landscape changes derived from opencast mining form 0.3% and land influenced by underground mining makes up 0.6% of the states territory. Pro tempore, 20 mining sites, quarries and mines are still are in operation or used to extract oil shale. The largest in Estonia as well as the world is the Estonia Mine (Reinsalu [7]).

The landscape features common in northeast Estonia are limestone hills formed from wall rock, leftovers from the process of oil shale beneficiation (33 pieces), industrial semi-coke hills, so called terricones (6 pieces), vast dumps, thermal power plant ash plateaus (over 2000 ha), underground mining collapse areas (around 106 ha) (Kaar [9, 10]; Sokman [11]).
Approach to landscape in recultivation
Recultivation methods and finding new functions for excavated areas have been written about and discussed in Estonia for longer than half a century. In the 1960s and 1970s scientific articles were published, normatives and principles were developed, but landscape approach in the process of recultivation was put into practice in only a few cases and thanks to the initiative of enthusiasts. In the 1990s, policies related to the protection of rural, natural and cultural values, the holistic landscape approach was not considered either. Landscape use, protection and design issues were rather undetermined outside the protected areas. So, until recent years, the evaluation of industrial and mining landscapes has been absent. Now, policies are changing for example, the national nature conservation development plan until 2035 assigns that construction heritage (including industrial and mining heritage) shall be a significant part of valuable Estonian landscapes and without its valuation, it will not possible to fulfil the goals of landscape protection and management. One of the reasons why landscape approach had so far only remained on the theoretical level is the fact that landscape architecture had not found its place in the field of professional education and had not been able to validate itself in the hierarchy of engineering. Legally, there were no landscape architects and landscape objects were not treated as they, too, belonged in the sphere of architecture (Sepp et al. [12]).
Nord-Pas de Calais coal mining region in Northern France
In Nord-Pas de Calais, the coal was mined in the coal basin for 270 years, from 1720 to 1990. The basin is around 120 km long and 12 km wide. Some 1.2 million inhabitants live in the region. The mining industrys decline was followed by an economical and social depression. About 40 years ago, were started to find applications for industrial heritage and solutions for socioeconomic problems. At the end of the 1960s and in the beginning of the 1970s, administrative leaders attempted to determine how to associate urbanization and the utilization of industrial heritage. It was decided to establish polyfunctional centres into dormitory-type mining settlements, renovate buildings that had belonged to coal miners and give them a new use or, if needed, demolish them. Mining settlements were to be connected with towns in terms of their administration, function and development. Wall rock hills were a specific problem it was impossible to avoid them and no simple solution existed for them. They only caused contradictions and conflicts. At first, they were considered to be disturbing eyesores in the
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landscape negative monuments of the past. Above all, the value of production was seen with a second sorting, it was possible to get more coal. Many of the hills were indeed liquidated by additional sorting, and some were hidden by planting high vegetation on them. Later, the wall rock heaps were used in creating green areas, either for ecological value or simply as potential green sites, which are scarce in the region. For natural scientists, a wall rock heap served as a field laboratory, where they could observe the distribution and interspecies relations of plants and animals in a unique milieu. By now, over 40 wall rock heaps have been counted in natural areas of ecological, fauntistic and floristic value (Zones dIntrt Ecologique, Faunistique et Flostique, ZNIEFF). The recognition of wall rock heaps as an introduction and representation of cultural and historical heritage is a phenomenon prevalent only in the previous decades. The region is also a great playground for development activities. In addition, the heaps are rooted in the regional identity and image of the area as positive landmarks. The triangular motive of a wall rock heap is a famous symbol of the Nord-Pas de Calais region. The motif has also been dignified in the logos of several institutions and administrative units. The last decades have seen the birth of several new institutions, which are engaged in the valuation and implementation of mining heritage. Etablissement Public Foncier, the so-called Public Land Agency, whose main task is to regulate industrial landscapes, was established in 1990. The Agency renovates real estate associated with mining and recultivates wall rock heaps, liquidates residual pollution, compiles environmental surveys and takes inventories of industrial heritage. In the last years, collaboration has been the keyword. In 2000, representatives from governments on state, regional and local levels decided to join their forces to create better possibilities for economical, environmental, urban and social development in the coal basin. To achieve those aims, the Coalfield Land-Planning Agency (La Mission Bassin Minier) was established. Above all, efforts are being made to help local governments solve problems originating from coal mining (polluted soil and water, spoilt landscapes, socio-economic problems, extension of mining settlements functions etc) and promote landscape planning and the development of region. As many different parties as possible have been involved in development activities. Great attention is paid to the local communitys preferences. The actions of the Coalfield Land-Planning Agency are based on a development plan accepted by each party. Before the plan was accepted, the whole mining region was evaluated and zoned. Every wall rock heap, mining settlement, building complex was approached individually. The global aim is the inclusion of the Nord-Pas de Calais region into the UNESCO cultural heritage list. The most successful and well-known project in the region is the recultivation of the Rieulay wall rock heap. This area of 140 hectares was designed to hold an attractive water body (for swimming and water sports, windsurfing, canoeing, rowing), a sandy beach, a football field, walking paths, a mountain bike path, fishing ponds, wetlands, unique habitats for amphibians and Mediterranean plants, closed areas for birdnests, a Mediterranean orchard etc (Maran [13]).
Mining landscape restoration example from Germany: IBA Frst-Pckler-Land 20002010
The organization of construction exhibition projects in Germany started as early as in the middle of the 19th century. The first international independent construction exhibition took place in the year 1901 in Mathildenhhe, Darmstadt. At first, it was about presenting contemporary urban architecture, but IBA (Internationale Bauausstellung) Berlin 19841987 brought along a new focus point urban renewal and new forms of planning. IBA Emscher Park 19891999 focussed on a holistic approach for the whole region. The ecological issues raised were developed further at IBA Frst-Pckler-Land 20002010. Lusatia is a German region regarded to be the most affected by human activity. In addition to causing landscape changes, 150 years of lignite mining have strongly influenced the settlement and its infrastructure, culture and population. During the period of industrial prosperity, population inflow occurred, but at the same time, some 80 towns and villages remained on the way of mining and their inhabitants were forced to migrate. By now, thousands of people have left the district due to unemployment. Mining companies have a legitimate obligation to restore used areas. In the case of East Germanys liquidated state enterprises, the task remained in the hands of the government of the reunited Germany. Before the IBA, three scenarios for the renewal of landscape had been introduced to the agenda. Scenario 1. Redemption through restoration: revegetation and overdevelopment, removing all unused industrial objects from the landscape. The mining heritage would disappear from sight and a distinctive lake region would be developed. Scenario 2. No innovations. After stopping water pumps, the landscape would be allowed to self-evolve. The result would be a spontaneously evolving and unique nature protection area. Scenario 3. Economizing on overdevelopment. As the consequences of industrial activities are overwhelmingly difficult on natures self-improving power, the area must be restored by humans. Water inflow to quarries would be regulated and a suitable inclination would be given to slopes. The regions industrial past cannot be deleted, but outstanding architectural and topographical elements and shapes must be retained as the industrial heritage of district such historical evidences, after all, give the area its uniqueness. The third scenario was chosen by IBA. The main principle was to combine old with new, preserve regional identity, underline refreshing fantasies and high design standards in new developments. As a limited liability company with an appointed time of operation, IBA serves as a mediator and does not participate in planning processes i.e. it does not compile development plans and does not possess planning rights or institutional power. Instead, its task is to suggest and initiate projects, bring together different parties and guide structural changes. At first, 20 projects were launched, but eventually, 30 evolved out of the initial ones. Projects are divided into nine: the centre, seven landscape islands and the island of Europe. The islands are areas with very different conditions,
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Figure 2:
Network system of IBA Frst-Pckler-Land. Green islands, yellow numbers project areas, red line energy route of industrial heritage. (See online for colour version.)
structure and problems, each having its own focal point. For example, landscape island Industrial Heritage introduces distinctive industrial monuments: the mining heritage landscape of excavator F60, Lauchhammer bio-towers, the power plant Plessa. Landscape islands are bound together by network and connections, among them Energy Route and the bicycle route Frst Pckler Path. Six EU projects have been accomplished or still in operation. REKULA (20002006) was a project for restructuring cultural landscapes with three partners: Lower Lusatia in Germany, Upper Silesia in Poland and Veneto in Italy. The main aspect was the improvement of living conditions by adapting very specific remedies. VIKTOUR (Virtueller Industri-Kultur-Tourismus, 2002 2005) and IdeQua (20042006) were directed at tourism development. IdeQua collaborated with 17 international partners from six countries and its main purpose was to strengthen regional identity. The sustainable forestry management project RW (Robinwood, 20062007) had partners from Italy, Britain, Spain and Slovakia. In Lusatia, fast-growing trees were planted on a mining site to demonstrate the potential of biomass production. RenERg EuReg (Renewable Energy Resources a Solution for the Sustainable Development of Two European Regions, 20082010) was a bi-national (Lusatia and Romanias Region Centru) project for innovative energy strategies. ReSOURCE (2009 2012) is an initiative for small to medium-sized regions in central Europe, where mining is being slowed down or has already stopped. The aim is to highlight the potential opportunities created by the legacy of mining. All projects are

transnational and forming a cooperation network is inherent to them. Outside the EU, IBA is involved in projects in the Atacama Desert in Chile and Nizhny Tagil in Russia. A ten-year period was divided into two. In the second stage, since 2006, the goals have been a greater connection between projects and increasing the awareness of people and decision-makers about ongoing changes. Every year saw the introduction of a new issue: 2006 New Europe, 2007 New Energy, 2008 New Water, 2009 New Land. The year 2010 was dedicated to summarizing outcomes and ending the organisation of the exhibition, but projects will nevertheless be developed further in the future. The final prospective outcome is a region of new landscapes with awakened tourism and functional enterprises (SEE [14]).
Restoration of mining areas in Estonia
The attitude that Estonian people have towards landscape is closely related to their selective valuation of the past. Manor and farm landscapes are considered to be most essential and heritage of the recent past is almost left unconsidered, may it be ecologically developed ameliorative projects or mining heritage. Estonians appreciate diverse and patriotically beautiful landscapes with a long history and tourism value. As Estonian landscapes are only looked after on protected areas, then the arrangement and development conditions regarding common landscapes (industrial, urban, rural and others) are established in planning acts. The value of a landscape is often contributed to developments carried out in the area. That kind on contrasting landscape management limits the diversity of Estonian landscapes and their environmental quality. Landscape management must not be restricted to valuable areas, but also cover the more common and typical industrial, rural, urban and rustic landscapes, damaged areas among them (Palang et al. [15]; Parts [16]). During the last few years, the direction has been towards the valuation of common landscapes, including industrial ones. The national nature conservation development plan until 2035 emphasizes that construction heritage (including industrial and mining heritage) is an important part of valuable Estonian landscapes and without preserving them, it is impossible to fulfil the goals of landscape protection and management. Construction heritage and heritage landscapes, though, have not been taken into account so far and no conditions and restrictions have been validated for their protection. Still, the appreciation and forming of Estonian mining district landscapes were not begun from scratch. Beautiful and distinctive landscapes were designed in Soviet times by the initiative of enthusiasts. Several examples can also be given from the past few years. A concentrated list of examples of best usage of oil shale mining and production areas has been prepared.
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6.1 Recreational landscapes 6.1.1 Vesiloo landscape of lakes The first example of planned landscape diversity is the Vesiloo lake (18 ha) in Viivikonna Quarry, established in the 1970s. The lake inherited its name from Paul Vesiloo, the founder of the lake and head engineer of Viivikonna Quarry. In addition, there are Presidents Lake, Kenajrv Lake and some smaller artificial lakes in Sirgala and Viivikonna quarries, used by locals for recreational activities and swimming, but also for fishing. 6.1.2 Kohtla Mine Park Museum The Kohtla mining museum is the best example of what can be done with a closed mine and its territory and buildings. The site was reclaimed and afforested in 1986. In 2000, after long discussions and negotiations, the decision was made to create a mine park. Mountain skiing slopes and slanting slopes for beginners were created on wall rock heaps and dumps. Bicycle trails and ATV roads, a steady roller skiing path, a climbing wall on enrichment factorys wall and many more exciting objects and facilities were built. A training complex and the museums exposition are being developed. During its six years of operation, the museum has been visited by 176,000 people. 6.1.3 Kivili old ash mountain Old semi-coke hills with an enormous amount of waste are one of the most important and complicated environmental problems in whole of East-Viru County. They must be brought to a condition as environmentally harmless as possible with optimized expenses (Kattai [17]). Kivili old semi-coke hill (absolute height 141.84 m, relative height 93 m), to which 6.3 tonnes of semi-coke and bottom ash were transported in 19221967, is being developed into a recreational centre of national importance (Pae et al. [18]). Numerous surveys, environmental impact assessment, detailed plans and preliminary projects for motor complex and adventure tourism are being prepared. In 2006, the construction of a motor complex was launched and at the same time, an additional survey of thermal processes was carried out (Kivili Seiklusturismi Keskus [19]). According to a detailed plan, mountain skiing and slalom slopes, a trail for snow boarding and snow tubing, a half-pipe snowboard chute, a sled riding hill, uphill tracks for motorcycles and motocross tracks are being conceptualized (Kivili vana poolkoksime maa-ala detailplaneering [20]). Construction areas, an event-organizing site, a camping site, cross trails, parking and traffic areas are planned to be built to the foot of the hill and land mark to the top of the hill. The tracks and facilities will be completed in several stages. Since 2003, international motorcycle uphill raising competitions have been taking place on the mountain annually. In 2007, the Qualda cross-country show also occurred: at the North-Estonian tourism conference, it was chosen as the years best tourist event. One of the goals of the show was to obtain permission from the International Motorcycle Federation (FIM) to arrange international

motoring competitions on the hill in the future. In 2008, a stage in the cyclecar world championships and a stage in the quad racer European championships were held there. 6.1.4 Kukruse wall rock dump Relative height 41 m, stored in 19551967, volume 710,000 m3, self-ignition process with certain environmental dangers is continuing (temperature on the ground 50C). Thanks to its advantageous location next to the Tallinn-Narva highway, the hill is one of the most popular tourism objects in East-Viru County. A panoramic view of oil shale landscapes opens to the town of Kohtla-Jrve in the west, Jhvi City in the south, to the Gulf of Finland in the north and to Kukruse Village from the front. The Kukruse uphill race is evolving into a tradition. 6.1.5 Tammiku wall rock dumps The complex consists of three dumps with the height of 12, 20 and 40 meters and with a total area of about 35 ha. The highest one is built on three terraces, which were afforested in 1973 and 1975. In autumn 2007, landscape architecture students from the Estonian University of Life Sciences, in collaboration with the representatives from the local government of Jhvi Parish, composed landscape development visions for the utilization of the Tammiku wall rock dump. One of the more interesting works was titled Tammiku paths, which intends to present the dump from different viewpoints. The idea includes three different journeys named history path, activity path and beauty path. The first two are more specific, the third one more abstract. The history path introduces the origin of dumps and the events connected to oil shale mining. It is a narrow-gauge railway line running on slopes and crests with a mining train with a score of passengers travelling through the exposition. Activity paths are most pragmatic. They consist of connection tracks with strategic points of interest a concert place, the centre, sled riding slopes, protected forests, watchtowers, a lake and swimming spots, boardwalks, parking areas, a park. The surrounding bicycle, skating and roller-skiing tracks are also interpreted as activity paths, connecting the area to neighbourhood settlements. The beauty path is joined together ideologically, without concrete navigation instructions. It takes advantage of mountain districts, to which the visitor is not guided by other paths, but where panoramic views offer a chance to enjoy the surroundings or which are themselves seen from the distance. 6.2 Military landscapes Since the 1990s, landscapes of Sirgala Quarry have been used for military training. The Estonian Ministry of Defence is planning to establish a defence forces rehearsal field in the forests of Sirgala Quarry. For the purpose, the intended purpose of land usage has to be changed from profit land to national defence land. In planning military areas, afforestation is put aside and the landscape will be enriched with new elements steeps, hollows, water bodies.
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Drowning former transport trenches is also foreseen. According to development plans, it will happen around the year 2025. 6.3 Town landscapes 6.3.1 Town parks In the course of the expansion of towns, older quarries remained into urban spaces. A good example is the Pavandu Quarry, which has become a fully fledged town park in Kohtla-Jrve. In the 1970s, town parks were established especially numerously. The demolition of mining workers barracks and the creation of town parks was connected to the validation of sanitary zones between the industrial zone and the dwelling area of Kohtla-Jrve (52 ha of green areas in the district of Jrve City) and Kivili (56 ha of maintained green areas). Likewise, it was s decisive period in building new multi-storey house districts, enabling to empty barrack districts. Allotments belonging to barracks and high vegetation, mainly apple trees, but also avenues bordering streets, created the preconditions for and simplified the creation of several dozen hectares worth of town parks, serving as a green belt around the territories of chemical industry. In high vegetation poplars dominate, with their ample flowering inducing annoyances to allergics and maintenance service, thus need to be replaced, also for their age and breaking danger. 6.3.2 Industrial parks Former quarries, mine buildings and constructions can be exploited for enterprise development. For example, an industrial park has been in development on the territory of a former mining training centre in the western part of Jhvi City since 2003. Largely useless constructions have been dismantled and new infrastructure created. At the moment, ten enterprises are operating on the 25 hectares of the industrial park. 6.4 Rural landscapes 6.4.1 Recultivation plan for Vanakla Quarry In 19931994, engineers from an environmental engineering company from Great Britain called Richards, Moorehead & Laing Ltd, composed a restoration model project for the landscapes spoilt by the oil shale quarry (Richards, Moorehead & Laing Ltd and AS Eesti Plevkivi [21]). The project was partly accomplished in the overground part of the Vanakla Quarry in the Kohtla mine. The aim of the model plan was to develop a restoration technology for diverse land use. It was determined to divide the excavated areas into different plots for forestland, meadowland and arable land, while considering the interests of farmers. The planned landform was meant to merge into the surrounding landscape and excessively steep slopes were not allowed. Unlike the typically monotonous solutions of these times, the mining field was divided into smaller parcels with different shapes, forms and purposes. a slightly undulating area was planned, with an overall inclination to south. The northern borders of cadastral units were edged with hedges.
Public expectations regarding restoration and the utilization of mining landscapes
Peoples awareness about landscape values varies greatly and is often inclined. Without being familiar with landscape history, a consensual protection of landscape heritage is impossible landscape related professional education and training landscape management specialists must be fostered. The vision of local people in terms of valuable landscapes, including industrial ones, must be examined and their characteristics, dynamics and transforming influences must be analyzed (Palang et al. [15]). According to common public expectations, at least an equivalent value must be achieved with restoration, compared to the condition of the landscape before mining. In addition, greater attention needs to be paid to the interests of local governments and the districts inhabitants, and supervision is expected to be more effective. Large mining areas are assumed to find a purposeful usage. There is a continuous suspicion that data about the land use of mined areas is imprecise, control over the size and condition of unused and spoilt areas is lacking and thus, land use is not at all guided according to the expectations of the public (Saar Poll [22]). Environmental responsibility is not always definite and the owners obligations are not always fulfilled. It is presumed that prognoses for the future needs and usage programmes regarding mineral resources are insufficient; that mining, landscape, water and nature protection needs are not compatible, be it on state level or the level of local governments; that interest for restoration of unclaimed quarries is absent, that recultivation does not serve peoples needs and is often done poorly; that oil shale wall rock heaps pollute air and water; that mining enterprises do not have a clear solution for surface water and groundwater regime formation after mining activities (Plevkivi kasutamise riiklik arengukava [23]). Landscape design and architecture methods have often been retracted before they have been overridden because of routine environmental requirements or upstaged because of financial reasons. To fulfil public expectations, the best environmental practices must be applied, experiences from other countries must be taken into consideration, and dealing with products, buildings, constructions, planning acts and other environmental issues must be completed starting from the initial idea until the final solution. In addition to technological means, image-building must be dealt with; the public must be more informed about the reuse of mined areas and the potential environmental impacts after mining. Including local governments and civil initiative organisations into planning for mined areas has so far been quite random.
Conclusion
The issue of landscaping in terms of the recultivation of areas and giving new functions to excavated areas has been written about and discussed in Estonia longer than half a century, but until now, only a few restoration projects have considered to have landscape architectural and ecological approach. Legislation
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demands that recultivation was conducted for the purposes determined in the mining permission. Even though regulation and normatives for restoring mined areas are sound from legal viewpoints as well as punctual and strict from engineering viewpoints, a landscape-centred approach is completely absent and an ecological approach is vague. What is needed above all is that criteria for landscaping and biological diversification were added to recultivation normatives, as landscapes and biological diversity reproduce each other. Industrial landscapes in northeast Estonia must not be recultivated in a way that does not leave any traces of their industrial past, for the artificial mountains create variability to the plain landscapes of northern Estonia. Attitudes towards wall rock heaps, dumps, industrial complexes must be reassessed and a new function must be given to them. Wall rock heaps and quarries would be most suitable for large-scale recreation areas, parks, hiking trails, theme parks and for adventure tourism. Still, there cannot be several attraction centres of the same type: it has been proven in Europe that in the context of restoring industrial lands into recreation areas, this kind of an approach does not work (Hospers [24]). In carrying out innovative ideas, it must be taken into account that designing new landscapes is limited by several circumstances: manoeuvring abilities of mining vehicles is restricted, the characteristics of surrounding areas must be considered, and new landforms must be fit for their function. Architecturally valuable buildings and unique industrial facilities must be preserved and exhibited. Until now, criticism of planning practices has referred to the prevention of post-mining impacts by implementing suitable mining technologies and to prolonged and large-scale planning of restoration works (TT Meinstituut [26]). Planning should cover more than one mining department. The large-scale approach enables to enrich the post-mining landscapes holistically, providing different functions and a landscape design appropriate for an artificial landform. Thematic plans should be prepared. After the approval of a national development plan for oil shale mines, the establishment of a coordinative body should be seriously considered. The body would connect parties, join the management of different sectors, solve conflicts between public and private interests. The simplest solution would be to arrange international competitions for landscape architects. Support would be obtained from cooperation with the EU and from the Structural Fund. Without domestic and transnational cooperation, it is difficult to ensure an economical re-use of mining districts. There are many great examples of developing mining regions in Europe. In this article, the experiences of France and Germany were discussed. Oil shale mining will continue for at least 20 more years. It allows designing landscape and storing wall rock already during mining works, and apart from the recultivation of quarries, finding opportunities to develop the regions identity and promote its positive image by implementing innovative landscape design. According to a public survey, the best new function for each area should be investigated in areas where mining has ended. The interests of local inhabitants have great importance and it must be expressed in the holistic vision, which retains, improves and develops the industrial and mining heritage of East-Viru County.
References
[1] Nassauer, J. I., Culture and changing landscape structure. Landscape Ecology, 10(4), pp. 229-237, 1995. [2] Ahern, J., Spatial concepts, planning strategies and future scenarios: a framework method for integrating landscape ecology and landscape planning. Landscape Ecological Analysis: Issues and Applications, ed. Klopatec, J., Gardner, R., New York: Springler-Verlag, pp. 175201, 1999. [3] Hands, D.E. Brown, R.D., Enhancing visual preference of ecological rehabilitation sites. Landscape and Urban Planning, pp. 58, 5770, 2002. [4] Jongman, R. and Pungetti, G., Ecological networks and greenways: concept, design, implementation. Cambridge University Press, 345 pp., 2004. [5] Lafortezza, R., Sanesi, G., Pace, B., Corry, R.C., Brown, R.D., Planning for the rehabilitation of brownfield sites: a landscape ecological perspective. Brownfield Sites. Assessment, Rehabilitation and Development, ed. Donati, A., Rossi, C., Brebbia, C.A., W.I.T. Press, Southampton, UK, pp. 2130, 2004. [6] Kattai, V., Eesti plevkivi: geoloogia, ressurss, kaevandamistingimused. Akadeemia Trkk, pp. 4-6, 2000. [7] Reinsalu, E., Plevkivi ja selle kasutamine. Maavarade kaevandamine ja puistangute rekultiveerimine Eestis, ed. Kaar, E., Kiviste, K., Ecoprint, Tartu, pp. 7-14, 2010. [8] Sokman, K., Maavarade kaevandamise mju maakasutusele. Maavarade kaevandamine ja puistangute rekultiveerimine Eestis, ed. Kaar, E., Kiviste, K., Ecoprint, Tartu, pp. 56-69, 2010. [9] Kaar, E., Aherainemgede taimestumine ja haljastamine. Maavarade kaevandamine ja puistangute rekultiveerimine Eestis, ed. Kaar, E., Kiviste, K., Ecoprint, Tartu, pp. 301-320, 2010. [10] Kaar, E., Soojuselektrijaamade tuhavljade taimestamine. Maavarade kaevandamine ja puistangute rekultiveerimine Eestis, ed. Kaar, E., Kiviste, K., Ecoprint, Tartu, pp. 361-384, 2010. [11] Sokman, K., Paemed, aheraine omadused ja kasutamine. Paekonverentsi kogumik, Kohtla-Nmme, pp. 7-9, 2004. [12] Sepp, K., Metsaots, K., Roose, A., Kaevandamisega muudetud maastike vrtustamine ja kujundamine. Maavarade kaevandamine ja puistangute rekultiveerimine Eestis, ed. Kaar, E., Kiviste, K., Ecoprint, Tartu, pp. 105128, 2010. [13] Maran, M., Kaevandusala rekultiveerimise anals Rieulay (PhjaPrantsusmaa) nitel. Bachelors thesis on landscape architecture in Estonian University of Life Sciences, 2005. [14] SEE. IBA-Werkschau, Bewegtes Land, IBA-Halbzeitdokumentation 20002010. Wolf, K. (ed.), INPETHO Medienproduktion GmbH, 2005. [15] Palang, H., Sepp, K., Soovli, H., Eesti maastikuprand ja selle hoidmise vimalused. Eesti jtkusuutliku arengu teel, ed. Punning, J.-M., Tallinn: Eesti Entsklopeediakirjastus, pp. 7583, 2006.
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[16] Parts, P-K., Kultuurilise tootmise tehnoloogia poole: kultuuriprandi nide. Akadeemia, 2, pp. 227271, 2007. [17] Kattai, V. Plevkivi likivi. Tallinn, Eesti Geoloogiakeskus, 2003. [18] Pae, T., Luud, A., Sepp, M., Mis on Eesti krgeim tehismgi? Eesti Loodus, 5, pp. 1820, 2005 [19] Kivili Seiklusturismi Keskus http://www.tuhamagi.ee/ 20.02.2011 [20] Kivili vana poolkoksime maa-ala detailplaneering. K&H AS, 2004. [21] Richards, Moorehead & Laing Ltd, AS Eesti Plevkivi, Kaevandamise ja taastamise arengukava Kohtla pealmaakaevandusele,1996. [22] Saar Poll. Ida-Virumaa plevkivitstusse suhtumise uuringu aruanne. 2006. [23] Plevkivi kasutamise riiklik arengukava 20082015. Riigikogu seaduse eelnu. Keskkonnaministeerium, 2008. [24] Hospers, G-J. Industrial heritage tourism and regional restructuring in the European Union. European Planning Studies 10 (3), pp. 397404, 2002. [25] TT Meinstituut. Teadust aruanne Plevkivi Kaevandamise AS ettevtete tst tulenevate hdrogeoloogiliste muutuste prognoosi koostamine, 2004.
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Remediation of coastal sandy soils polluted by petroleum leaks

J. Toms Albergaria1, C. Delerue-Matos1 & M. da Conceio M. Alvim-Ferraz2
1 2
REQUIMTE, Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto, Portugal LEPAE, Departamento de Engenharia Qumica, Faculdade de Engenharia, Universidade do Porto, Portugal
Abstract
The group of pollutants containing benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene (commonly known as BTEX) is typically related to petroleum leaks. According to the United States Environmental Protection Agency that group of pollutants is one of the most often found in contaminated soils. The remediation technology that is commonly applied to the remediation of soils contaminated with those pollutants is Soil Vapour Extraction (SVE); through the induction of vacuum to the soil matrix, SVE promotes the circulation of air within the soil, conducting the contaminant vapours removed to extraction wells and later to the atmosphere, after convenient treatment. The location of petroleum refineries strongly depends on the requirement of significant amounts of water for process, cooling and steam; besides of that, mainly due to the need of guarantying efficient supply of raw materials and shipping of products, petroleum refineries are usually located in coastal areas, commonly constituted by sandy soils; coastal sandy soils normally have low content of natural organic matter, but high soil water content (SWC) that has an important role on the distribution of the pollutants in the soil phases and, consequently, on the time and efficiency of remediation with SVE. The complete knowledge of that role is extremely necessary to adopt the most efficient strategy for the site remediation, aiming, namely, to preview the remediation time required to reach a defined remediation efficiency imposed by legislation. This work presents the study of the influence of SWC on the remediation of soils contaminated with benzene and xylene using SVE. The main objectives

were to evaluate the impact of SWC: i) on the contaminant distribution in the soil, ii) on the remediation time, and iii) on the process efficiency. Keywords: petroleum leaks, soil remediation, sandy soils, soil vapour extraction, soil water content.
1 Introduction
The petroleum refineries are strategically located in coastal areas due their needs of extremely high amounts of cold water and to easily and rapidly receive raw materials and deploy products. Coastal areas are normally and basically constituted by sandy soils that present specific and well known characteristics. Albergaria et al. [1] concluded that the adsorption capacity of sandy soils is extremely low and that the contaminants are mostly located in the gas phase of the soil, indicating that they have high mobility; this allows the horizontal and vertical spreading of contaminants, creating the possibility of risk for public health. Aiming the protection of the environment and the public health, several soil remediation technologies have been used in the last decades [2]. Among them, Soil Vapour Extraction (SVE) can be highlighted, due to be a well known technology of relatively easy application and also due to its high efficiency. This technology can be applied to contamination located in the unsaturated zone of the soil and involves the application of vacuum to the contaminated zone of the soil creating an airflow within the soil matrix. This airflow will transport the volatile contaminants to extraction wells that will remove the contaminant from the soil to air treatment units that ensure that the contaminants are not transferred to the atmosphere [3, 4]. SVE efficiency depends on the contaminant mass transfer phenomena that occur in the soil, from the different soil phases (solid, aqueous and non-aqueous liquid) to the gas phase. These transfers are affected by several parameters such as vapour pressure and water solubility of the contaminants and contents of organic matter and water of the soil. The group of pollutants containing benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene (commonly known as BTEX) is typically related to petroleum leaks. According to the United States Environmental Protection Agency that group of pollutants is one of the most often found at contaminated soils; the remediation technology that is commonly applied to the remediation of soils contaminated with those pollutants is Soil Vapour Extraction (SVE). Soil water content (SWC) acts as a receiver of the contaminant through dissolution, reduces the air-filled porosity of the soil and can act as a barrier between the pollutant and the soil matrix, hindering the adsorption of contaminants on the solid phase of the soil; when the water content is high the pores are almost filled creating difficulties to the air movement and consequently the extraction of the contaminant from the soil [1]. However, water of the soil can compete with the contaminant for the adsorption sites creating desorption of the contaminant, allowing it to be transported by the airflow to the exterior of the soil [5].
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The knowledge of the contaminant behavior in soils with different soil water contents is of extreme interest because it can supply information for the selection of the most efficient strategy for the site remediation, aiming, namely, to preview the remediation time required to reach a defined remediation efficiency imposed by legislation. This work presents the study of the influence of SWC on the remediation of soils contaminated with benzene and xylene using SVE. The main objectives were to evaluate the impact of SWC: i) on the contaminant distribution in the soil, ii) on the remediation time, and iii) on the process efficiency.
2 Experimental
2.1 Reagents Benzene and xylene were obtained, respectively, from Riedel-de Han and from Merck. All substances were of analytical grade quality. 2.2 Apparatus An Ai Cambridge GC95 chromatograph equipped with a Chrompack Hayesep Q 80-100 mesh (3 m 4 mm) column and a flame ionisation detector (FID) were used for the quantification of the contaminant in the gas emissions. The injector and the detector were set at 230C and the oven was maintained at 200C. Flame gases were: air at 270 cm3 min-1 (STP), and hydrogen at 30 cm3 min-1 (STP). The carrier gas was nitrogen at 30 cm3 min-1 (STP). Chromatographic data were recorded using a Barspec Data System software (Barspec System, Inc, Israel). The external standard calibration method was used. Under the above described experimental conditions, the retention times of the contaminants were: 25 minutes for benzene and 101 minutes for xylene. 2.3 Gas chromatographic analysis The quantification of benzene and xylene were performed by Gas Chromatography using the external standard calibration method. For each contaminant, seven standards were prepared and analysed in triplicate within the desired range (0.7 to 53 g m-3 for benzene and 0.7 to 17 g m-3 for xylene). The obtained calibration curves showed correlation coefficients between 0.9944 and 0.9996. The relative deviations of the results of the triplicate analysis were below 4.1% which indicates that the method has an adequate precision. 2.4 Soil preparation and characterization The used sandy soil was collected at 2 m depth in a beach near Porto (Portugal). This soil was mainly constituted of silica and shell debris. The soil was stored in appropriate vessels to ensure that no changes occurred to its physicochemical properties. The work here described was performed using prepared soils; the behaviour of real soils will be compared in a different publication. The

preparation of the soils with different water contents involved five steps: a) washing until clear water was obtained; b) drying, first at room temperature during 5 days and then at 110C for 24 hours; c) sieving through a 2 mm sieve to obtain a granulometric fraction of the soil with uniform physical properties; d) adding different amounts of water to the sand in order to induce 2 and 4% water contents; and e) homogenising. The prepared soils were stored in stoppered vessels and identified as P0, P2 and P4, the subscript indicating the water content (%). International standard methodologies were used for the soil characterization that included the determination of apparent density, particle density, porosity, pH, and the contents of water and natural organic matter [6]. 2.5 Soil vapour extraction experiments The soil columns for SVE experiments were prepared in four steps: a) introduction of the soil into the column; b) contamination by adding 1.00 g of contaminant in the top of the column allowing the percolation; c) equilibrium settling. After the equilibrium was reached the vacuum pump was turned on and the airflow rates were adjusted using a rotameter. The air passed through the column, percolating through the soil inside the column, and then through a sampling system where the contaminated emissions were collected and afterwards monitored by gas chromatography. To control atmospheric contamination, the contaminants in the emissions were adsorbed on activated carbon before reaching the atmosphere. The remediation process was considered finished when the concentration of the contaminant in the gas phase of the emission leaving the soil column was below 1.0 mg L-1. The time required to reach this point was considered the remediation time. In the end of SVE the process efficiency was calculated using equilibrium isotherms that relate the concentration of the contaminant in the gas phase with the mass of contaminant in the soil matrix. This tool was used to calculate the amount of contaminant remaining in the soil matrix after the SVE. Equilibrium isotherms were obtained using soil columns similar to those previously described, but using different amounts of contaminant (0.05 to 0.400g). When the equilibrium was reached the concentration of the contaminant in the gas phase was calculated and related with the level of contamination of the soil.
3 Results
3.1 Soil characteristics Table 1 shows the results of soil characterisation. In all cases the natural organic matter content was below the limit of detection (0.02%) and the clay content was negligible; the relatively high pH values can be explained by the presence of shell debris.
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Table 1:
Soil pH
Characteristics of P0, P2 and P4 soils (particle size < 2mm).

Particle density (g mL ) 2.5 2.5 2.5
-1
Apparent density (g mL ) 1.5 1.3 1.2

-1
Porosity (%) 42 49 51
Water content (%) 0.0 2.0 4.0
Natural organic matter content (%) < 0.02 < 0.02 < 0.02
P0 P2 P4
8.8 8.8 8.8
3.2 Contaminant distribution in soil The elaboration of the equilibrium isotherms allowed to calculate the amounts of contaminant in all the soil phases (gaseous, aqueous, non-aqueous liquid and solid) (Albergaria et al. [1]). Figure 1 shows how the contaminants distributed among these phases in the three prepared soils studied, for three levels of contamination (12, 50 and 100 mg kg-1). Figure 1 shows that increasing the soil water content increased the percentage of contaminant in the gas and aqueous phases and decreased the percentage of contaminant in the solid and non-aqueous liquid phases (the water covering the soil particles hindered the bonding between the contaminant and the solid phase). The percentage of contaminant in the aqueous phase is low because of the low water solubility of both contaminants, lower for xylene.
Solid and nonaqueous liquid phase Gas phase
Percentage (%)
60 40 20 0 0 4 2
Percentage (%)
100 75 50 25 0
Soil water content (%)
Aqueous phase
Percentage (%)
40 30 20 10 0 0 2
Soil water content (%) Benzene Xylene
Figure 1:
Distribution of the contaminants among the soil phases.

3.3 Soil vapour extraction The influence of water content on SVE was also evaluated considering the remediation time and process efficiency. Figure 2 presents the remediation times for all the experiments, showing that SWC has a slight but negative impact on SVE turning the remediation process more time consuming. This could be explained by the fact the higher SWC implies lower soil porosities and higher difficulty for contaminant percolation through the soil matrix.
Remediation time (h)
15 12 9 6 3 0 0 2 4
Soil water content (%) Benzene Xylene
Figure 2:
SVE remediation times for P0, P2 and P4 soils contaminated separately with benzene and xylene (airflow rate = 5.0 L h-1).
Figure 3 presents the influence of SWC on the remediation efficiencies, showing that SWC has no significant impact on the process efficiency (all efficiencies were above 93%). This could be explained by the fact that the sandy soils have low capacity to adsorb the contaminants leaving them extremely mobile and easy to extract.
Efficiency (%)
100 90 80 70 60 50 0 2
Benzene
Xylene
Figure 3:
SVE remediation efficiencies for P0, P2 and P4 soils contaminated separately with benzene and xylene (airflow rate = 5.0 L h-1).
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4 Conclusions
For sandy soils with negligible amounts of clay and natural organic matter, contaminated separately with benzene and xylene and remediated using SVE it was concluded that: a) all the remediation experiments had efficiencies above 93%; b) increasing of soil water content led to: i) an increase of the contaminant percentage in the gas and aqueous phases and a decrease of contaminant percentage in the solid and non-aqueous liquid phases; c) soil water content had a slight but negative impact on SVE turning the remediation processes more time consuming; d) soil water content had no significant impact on the process efficiency.
Acknowledgement
The authors are grateful to Fundao para a Cincia e Tecnologia (Projecto PTDC/ECM/68056/2006) for the material support for this work.
References
[1] Albergaria, J.T., Alvim-Ferraz, M.C.M., Delerue-Matos, M. C. F., Estimation of pollutant partition in sandy soils with different water contents. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 171, 171-180, 2010. [2] United STATES Environmental Protection Agency, Superfund Remedy Report (Thirteenth Edition), 2010, Retrieved March 5th, 2011 from http://www.epa.gov/tio/download/remed/asr/13/srr_13th_maindocument.pdf [3] S.S. Suthersan, Soil Vapour Extraction. In: Remediation Engineering: Design Concepts. Boca Raton: Lewis Publisher Inc., pp. 27-88, 1999. [4] Anonymous, Offgas Treatment Technologies for Soil Vapor Extraction Systems, Hazardous Waste Consultant, 24, 1.11-1.15, 2006. [5] Tekrony, M.C., Ahlert, R.C. Adsorption of chlorinated hydrocarbon vapours onto soil in presence of water. Journal of Hazardous Materials. 84, 135-146, 2001. [6] Albergaria, J.T., 2010. Previso do tempo de remediao de solos contaminados usando a extraco de vapor. PhD Thesis. Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto, Porto.
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Integrated sustainable anaerobic treatment for low strength wastewater

S. I. Abou-Elela1, M. E. Fawzy1, M. El-Khateeb1 & W. Abdel-Halim2
1
Water Pollution Research Department, National Research Center, Cairo, Egypt 2 Housing and Building National Research Center, Cairo, Egypt
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to demonstrate and implement a cost effective system for low strength municipal wastewater treatment in rural areas. An integrated compact anaerobic treatment pilot plant unit was designed, constructed and operated for almost two years. The pilot plant consists of three successive compartments mainly; primary sedimentation (PS), packed bed up flow anaerobic sludge blanket (P-UASB) and inclined plate settler (IPS). The pilot plant was operated continuously at a hydraulic loading rate of 6m3/day, average organic loading rate of 2.5 kg COD/m3/day and average retention time of 4 hrs at the P-UASB and a total retention time 6 hrs for the integrated treatment unit. The performance of the treatment train was monitored via physico-chemical as well as bacteriological and parasitological analysis. The average removal rates of chemical oxygen demand (COD), biological oxygen demand (BOD5) and total suspended solids (TSS) were 78%, 79% and 91%, respectively with corresponding average residual values of 71 mgO2/l, 39 mgO2/l and 18 mg/l. Pathogenic analysis indicated that great majorities were removed but still some residuals exist. The treated wastewater, after disinfection, was complying with the Egyptian Code for wastewater reuse in restricted irrigation. The results indicated that the total life cost of the pilot plant, during the research period, proved to be a cost-effective process for treating low strength wastewater. Keywords: low strength wastewater, anaerobic treatment, packed upflow anaerobic sludge blanket, inclined plate settler.
Introduction
Wastewater is one of the challenging environmental problems in Egypt. Wastewater treatment in rural areas and small communities lags far behind potable water supply; this practice causes serious environmental and hygienic problems. The high construction, operation and maintenance costs for a centralized conventional wastewater collection and treatment system represent an obstacle for the Egyptian government in the installation of such a system in rural areas. All that made the on-site low cost options or decentralized sanitation systems are all become interesting solution for application and testing [1]. This alternative can meet a sustainable wastewater management requirement and has a promising future, especially for developing countries [2]. From the perspective, one technology that could deliver similar effluent quality compared to the centralized conventional wastewater treatment is the anaerobic technology [3]. Nowadays, intensive research works have been conducted on the treatment of dilute sewage wastewater at ambient temperatures using anaerobic reactors such as upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB), expanded granular bed (EGSB) and anaerobic baffled reactors (ABR). Feng et al. [4] studied the performance of bamboo carrier anaerobic baffled reactor for treatment of dilute domestic sewage from rural areas of china, TCOD removal efficiency varied from 79% at 48 hrs HRT to 69% at 18 hrs HRT. Manariotis and Grigoropoulos [5] conducted experiments on anaerobic baffled reactor to evaluate the treatment of low strength synthetic wastewater (COD of 300-400 mgO2/l) at 26C and HRTs of 24 and 12 hrs and observed that COD removal efficiencies ranged from 87% to 91%. Sabry [6] used upflow septic tank / Baffled reactor system which produced an average removal values of COD, BOD and TSS of 84%, 81% and 89%, respectively at a retention time of 20 hrs. Also, Gopala et al. [7] studied the performance of 10 L laboratory scale ABR operated for almost 600 days at a temperature ranging from 20C to 32C for treating low strength complex wastewater of COD 500 mgO2/l at HRTs of 20,15,10,8,6 hrs with corresponding organic rates of 0.8, 1.2, 1.5 and 2 kgCOD/m3/day. The removal efficiencies of COD and BOD exceeded 88%. Furthermore, the use of packing material in upflow anaerobic sludge blanket plays an important role in increasing the surface area for faster biofilm development and improved methanogenesis. Many carrier materials have been investigated regarding their stability as support for biofilm, including cheap, readily available materials like, sand, clay, glass, quartz and a number of plastics [8]. Picanco et al. [9] reported that the efficiency of removing organic matters in fixed-bed reactors is directly related to the characteristics of the support material used for immobilization of anaerobes. It is widely accepted that organic support material has a higher affinity than inorganic material [10]. It is worth noting that most of the studies using anaerobic reactors for low strength wastewater were carried out at high retention times and with or without packing materials. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to investigate and evaluate the performance and capability of a compact anaerobic packed bed reactor with lamella, operated at a very low retention time (4 hrs), for sustainable treatment and reuse in agricultural purposes.
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Material and methods
2.1 Description of the pilot plant The integrated combined anaerobic treatment unit consists of three successive compartments namely; primary sedimentation (option), up flow anaerobic sludge blanket packed with lamella sheets (P-UASB) and inclined plate settler. The unit is located at a nearby wastewater treatment plant. The pilot plant unit is made of PVC of 8 mm thickness. The packing material is a lamella corrugated plastic sheets (Figure 1) with a specific surface area of 150 m2/m3. The treatment train and the schematic diagram of the pilot unit are shown in Figures 2 and 3. A full description of the treatment unit is given in Table 1.
Figure 1:
Photo for the packing material (lamella sheets).
Disinfection Options x Chlorination x UV
Influent
P.S P-UASB IPS Treated wastewater for reuse
Figure 2:
Schematic diagram of the pilot plant.
2.2 Operating conditions The pilot plant was operated continuously for almost two years at a hydraulic loading rate of 6.0-6.5 m3/day, average organic loading rate of 2.5 kg COD/m3/day and at ambient temperature ranged from 17C to 35C for almost 2 years. The system was fed with domestic sewage after coarse screening to prevent clogging and damage caused by rough suspended solids of influent wastewater. During the start -up period the flow rate was gradually increased from 2.0 m3/day up to 6.0 m3/day until it reached the steady state conditions.
Figure 3:
Engineering design of the pilot plant.
Table 1:
Full description of the treatment unit. P.S 0.5-1 hrs 250 1 Option if needed P-UASB 4 hrs 1080 4.32 0.42 Packing material is corrugated plastic sheets with specific surface area Ca. 150 m2/m3 IPS 1 hr 250 1 Provide by plastic inclined sheets (60o inclination)
Parameters Designed Retention Time (RT) (Hrs) Sizing (liter) Flow rate (m3/day) Upflow velocity (m/h) Remarks
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2.3 Acclimatization and sludge inoculation The acclimatization period of the treatment unit took about 4 months from the first inoculation to the P-UASB reactor. It was seeded with primary digested sludge obtained from a secondary wastewater treatment plant. The sludge was kept in anaerobic condition before feeding to the P-UASB. The seeded sludge has a concentration of 63.4 g/l for TSS and 27.3 g/l for VSS. The volume of the sludge represents almost 40% from the total volume of the P-UASB reactor. During the steady state operation phase, the excess sludge was discharged every two months. Before sludge withdrawal, several sludge samples were collected from the different points along the reactor height at 10,28,41,54 and 69 cm from the reactor bottom. These samples were analyzed for total solids (TS) and Volatile solids (VS). Accordingly, the composite sludge concentration inside the reactor was calculated and compared to that of the start initial value of the seeded sludge as a potential to determine the excess sludge concentration. In each wasting case, the volume of the excess sludge was observed. Furthermore, the performance of the integrated anaerobic treatment unit was monitored by intermittent measurements of COD and TSS until it reached the steady state. 2.4 Analysis The investigated physicochemical analysis were pH, temperature, turbidity, total chemical oxygen demand (TCOD), soluble chemical oxygen demand (SCOD), Biological oxygen demand (BOD5), total suspended solids (TSS), volatile suspended solids (VSS) ; total kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), ammonia (NH3), total phosphorous (TP), oil and grease & all extractable matters by chloroform, hydrogen sulphide and volatile fatty acids (VFA). The gas produced was detected using portable ambient air analyzer (MIRAN SapphlRe, 205A series), while its flow was measured using gas flow meter. The pathogenic analysis include fecal coliform (FC) and helminthes (Nematodes, cestodes and trematodes). All the analysis, unless otherwise specified, were carried out according to the American Public Health Association for Examination of Water and Wastewater [11].
Results and discussion
3.1 Start up of the Pilot Plant Treatment Unit To reach the steady-state conditions, the system was operated at 2.88 m3/day then gradually increased to 4.33 m3/day, then to 6.0 m3/day. The system reached the steady state after almost four months as indicated by constant measurements of total COD and turbidity which reached 158 mgO2/l and 70 NTU, respectively. 3.2 Wastewater characterization From the results depicted in Table 2 and Figure 4, it is obvious that the wastewater fed to the treatment unit is classified as a low strength wastewater

Table 2: Parameters pH-value Turbidity COD tot COD sol COD part BOD5 tot Settleable 10 min Solids 30min Physico-chemical characterization of raw wastewater. Unit -NTU mg O2/l mg O2/l mg O2/l mg O2/l ml/l mg/l mg/l mgN/l mgN/l mg/l mg/l mg/l Min. 6.78 89 292 77 215 140 0.5 0.8 110 94 24.9 14.0 2.8 23.4 1.8 Max. 7.54 208 398 180 218 240 2.5 3.0 289 243 66.8 30.0 6.6 88.0 9.5 Average* -135.5 320.5 108 211.6 190.8 1.38 1.7 200 150.9 40.0 22.6 3.8 46.1 5.0
TSS VSS TKN NH4-N T.P Oil & grease H 2S *Average of 25 samples.
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
PCOD
SCOD
TCOD
COD, (mgO2/L)
150
170
200
240
280
313
388
430
455
478
508
514
Duration (Days)
Figure 4:
COD fractions for raw wastewater.
[12]. The average values for total COD, soluble COD and particulate COD were 320.5 mgO2/l, 108 mgO2/l, 211.5 mgO2/l, respectively. The average BOD and total suspended solids were 190 mgO2/l and 200 mg/l, respectively.
530
483
3.3 Performance of the integrated anaerobic treatment unit 3.3.1 COD fractions, BOD and TSS removal The overall efficiency of the integrated anaerobic treatment unit is shown in Figure 5. The average removal rates of TCOD, BOD and TSS were 78%, 79% and 91%, respectively with corresponding residual values of 71 mgO2/l, 39.7 mgO2/l and 18 mg/l. It is obvious from the values depicted in the figure that the use of packing material in the UASB, with high surface area, aids in the accumulation of suspended solids at the bottom of the reactor so increasing the average removal efficiency of TSS to 62%. Also, it was found that the use of inclined plate settler, which is provided by plastic inclined sheets at 60 inclination, improves the settliability of suspended solids (up to 91% removal of TSS) which is then accumulated and discharged with the sludge. Also, it can be explained that suspended solids settle, agglomerate and flow down the sloped plate surfaces, while the treated effluent is conducted upwards. Moreover, a biofilm is developed on the surface of IPS where biocatalysts such as microorganisms, particulate matters and extracellular polymers exist on the surface of an inert media or adhere with other microorganisms [13]. Similar results were obtained [14]. They found that clean vertical sheets of reticular polyurethane foam (RPF) could effectively remove suspended solids from domestic sewage mainly because of their high specific surface area and porosity; moreover the presence of a biofilm improved the bisorption of suspended and colloidal particles. Although the discharge of the accumulated sludge from the system reduce the total amount of biomass in the reactor but it prevents clogging of the filter media. The results in Figure 5 also show that the TCOD improved by 53.4% in the IPS compared to P-UASB, while the SCOD was limited to
350 300 250
320.53
Ra w wa stewa ter
P-UASB
Inclined pla te settler
211.62
200
190.84 152.46
200.15
Average, (mg/l)
150
108.92
100 50 0
71
86 66.64 43.46 27.54
92.07 75.61 39.7 18
TCOD
SCOD
P COD
BOD
TSS
Figure 5:
Efficiency of the treatment system.

60%. This may be explained that SCOD (partly) consisted of soluble microbial products (SMP) which are resistant to anaerobic degradation. These are in agreement with [15]. 3.3.2 VFA removal The average VFA concentration in the P-UASB increased from 35.6 mg/l in the influent wastewater to 73.2 mg/l and consequently slightly lowered the pH value from 7.2 to 6.9. This demonstrates that hydrolysis and acidogenesis were the main biochemical activities taking place in the P-UASB [16]. However, degradation of VFA took place in the final effluent and it was reduced to 28.7 mg/l resulting in the increase of the pH value of the final effluent to 7.14. This indicated that the organic content in wastewater such as COD and VFA are consumed by the biofilm passing through the reactor P-UASB and IPS. 3.3.3 Nutrient removal The integrated anaerobic treatment unit displayed nutrient removal efficiency of 68.5% for total organic nitrogen, 66.8% for ammonia and 65% for total phosphorous at a HRT in P-UASB of 4 hrs. These results are close to that obtained by [17], although they used multi stage treatment unit (UASB - down flow hanging sponge) at a total HRT of 10.7 hrs. 3.3.4 Sludge bioactivity Figure 6 show the sludge sampling including the average sludge concentrations along different height levels of the reactor. This figure shows the initial concentration of the sludge when it was measured in the laboratory without any expansion (TS = 84.4 g/L; VS = 38.9 g/L). The initial concentration after expansion (sludge blanket at 10 cm above reactors bottom) due to the up-flow inside the reactor was (TS = 63.4 g/L; VS = 27.3 g/L). Although this reduction in the biomass concentration of the sludge, the reactor still working with acceptable performance and sludge activity. The sludge methanogenic activity was determined along the operation time at different temperature ranges and compared to the actual sludge loading rate according to the fluctuated concentrations of the influent wastewater. It was found that the sludge loading rates were fluctuated within range of 0.13-0.17 g COD/g VS.d with an average value of 0.15 g COD/g VS.d along the different experimental runs and temperatures. The average values of total methanogenic sludge bio-activity were 0.11 g CODrem/g VS.d along the different experimental runs. This means that the sludge has a very good response and interaction with the increasing of sludge loading rate without any risk of overloading inhibition. It is also confirmed the ability of sludge activity to overcome the obstructions due to change of operating conditions. 3.3.5 Biogas production The quantity and quality of biogas produced were measured frequently. The methane content was ranged between 72% and 77% of the total biogas. Also, the biogas included some other gases such as nitrogen, NH3, CO2, CO and N2O. The specific methane gas production was determined according to the removed COD
485
and influent COD as well as the influent wastewater discharge. The removed COD-specific CH4-gas production was ranged between 180-220 L CH4/kg CODremoved with an average value 200 L CH4/kg CODremoved. The influent CODspecific CH4-gas production was ranged between 80-160 L/kg CODin with an average value of 120 L/kg CODin along the whole runs. In comparison to the previous studies, it is proved that the obtained values are considered in a normal range of methane production for anaerobic treatment of municipal wastewater [13, 18].
Excess Sludge Characteristics
0 . 75 69 cm 1 . 58
3.5 54 cm 4. 5
VS (g/L)
TS (g/L)
TS &VS (g/L)
4 41 cm 8.6
9 . 41 28 cm 22 .5
27 .3 10 cm 63 .4
Initial
38 .9 84 . 4
Withdraw levels from the bottom of UASB
Figure 6:
Sludge concentration in the P-UASB reactor.
3.3.6 Pathogens removal The results shown in Table 4 indicated that the average removal rate of fecal coliform reached 99.92% with average residual value of 8.2x102. Also, total helminthes (nematodes, cestodes and trematodes) could not be completely removed due to the short HRT and the high upflow velocity in the P-UASB. The mean values of nematodes, cestodes and trematodes indicated that the total helminthes reached 0.3 ova / liter. Feng et al [4] reported that anaerobic process had certain effect on the removal of pathogenic species such as fecal coliform and Ascaris eggs, but it is necessary to take further appropriate post-disinfection process to guarantee the effluent safety. However, fecal coliform and helminthes ova in our study are in compliance with the Egyptian Code for Wastewater Reuse in Restricted Irrigation (Fecal coliform = 1000 and Helminthes ova = 1).
Economic analysis
To calculate the economic analysis of the proposed treatment system, a simulation of up-scaling module was designed for 500 m3/d using the integrated anaerobic wastewater treatment plant (5000 P.E.) with low strength wastewater (average 320 mgO2/l COD). The designed sizing was done based on the results of optimum total HRT of 6 hrs and required removal efficiencies stated in the Egyptian Code for wastewater reuse in restricted irrigation (COD= 80 mgO2/l, BOD = 40 mgO2/l and TSS = 20 mg/l). The investment cost was calculated according to the current construction market in Egypt. The investment cost of the plant was about $ 112,000, including land ($ 0.1 million). The Per Capita investment cost is $ 20. The annual operation costs are about $ 0.45 per capita ($ 0.012/m3). It is obvious that the investment cost of such integrated system is reduced by 40% from the conventional activated sludge process. 4.1 Economic benefits of bio-gas utilization (1) Produced methane gas = 19200 L/d (19.2 m3/d) Equivalent produced energy = 213.12 KWh/d (2) Energy demand for UASB reactor (3) = 0.08 KWh/kgCODremoved = 12.8 KWh/d Equation (3) is according to [19]. Rest of energy = 150.32 KWh/d; This energy may be stored or discharged to the public network. The annual pay-back gained from the produced energy is $ 1500 ($ 0.30 per Capita). This will reduce the annual cost of operation to only $ 0.15 per capita, which considered a very cost effective module of operation of such plants. Based on the cost benefit analysis, it is obvious that the integrated anaerobic treatment system proved to be very cost effective compared to the conventional aerobic treatment process.
Conclusion
The results of this study showed that low strength wastewater can be effectively treated using integrated anaerobic treatment unit consisting of three successive compartments mainly; primary sedimentation, packed bed anaerobic sludge blanket and inclined plate settler operated at low HRT for P-UASB of 4 hrs with an average OLR of 2.6 COD/m3/day. The quality of treated effluent in terms of COD, BOD and TSS removal rate were 78%, 79% and 91%, respectively. Results indicated that there is no need for primary sedimentation in case of treating low strength wastewater. The treatment unit removed considerably the pathogenic species as represented by fecal coliform and helminthes ova.
487
The integrated system proved to be very cost effective compared with conventional aerobic wastewater treatment system.
References
[1] Alvarez, J.A., Ruiz, I. & Soto, M., Anaerobic digesters as a pretreatment for constructed wetlands, Ecological Engineering, 33, pp. 54-67, 2008. [2] Anh, N.V., Ha, T.D., Nhue, T.H., Heiness, U., Morel, A., Moura, M. & Schertenleib, R., Decentralized wastewater treatment new concept and technologies for Vietnamese conditions, 5th specialized conference on small water and wastewater treatment systems, Istanbul-Turkey, pp. 75-84, 2002. [3] Lew, B., Taree, S., Beliavski, M., Dosoretz, C. & Green, M., Anaerobic membrane bioreactor (AnMBR) for domestic wastewater treatment, Desalination, 243, pp. 251-257, 2009. [4] Feng, H., Hu, L., Mahmood, Q., Qiu, C., Fang, C. & Shen, D., Anaerobic domestic wastewater treatment with bamboo carrier anaerobic baffled reactor, International Biodeterioration & Biodegradation, 62, pp. 232-238, 2008. [5] Manariotis & Grigoropoulos, Low-strength wastewater treatment using an anaerobic baffled reactor, Water Environmental Research, 74 (2), pp. 170 176, 2002. [6] Sabrey, T., Evaluation of decentralized treatment of sewage employing upflow septic tank/ baffled reactor (USBR) in developing countries, Journal of Hazardous Materials, 174, pp. 500-505, 2010. [7] Gopala Krishna, G.V.T., Kumar, P. & Kumar, P, Treatment of low strength complex wastewater using an anaerobic baffled reactor (ABR), Biosource Technology, 99, pp. 8193-8200, 2008. [8] Singh, S.P. & Prerna, P., Review of recent advances in anaerobic packedbed biogas reactors, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 13, pp. 1569-1575, 2009. [9] Picanco, A.P., Vallero, M.V.G., Gianotti, E.P., Zaiat, M. & Blundi C.E, Influence of porosity and composition of supports on the methanogenic biofilm characteristics developed in a fixed bed anaerobic reactor, Water Science Technology, 44, pp. 197-204, 2001. [10] Cohen, Y., Biofiltration-the treatment of fluids by microorganisms immobilized into the filter bedding material: a review, Biosource Technology, 77, pp. 257-74, 2001. [11] APHA, Standard Methods for the Examination of Water and Wastewater. 22th ed., American Public Health Association, Washington, DC, USA, 2005. [12] Metcalf & Eddy, Wastewater engineering treatment, disposal and reuse. 4th ed., McGraw-Hill, New York, 2005. [13] Ghaniyari-Benis, S., Borja, R., Ali Monemian, S. & Goodarzi, V., Anaerobic treatment of synthetic mediumstrength wastewater using a multistage biofilm reactor, Biosource Technology, 100, pp. 1740-1745, 2009.

[14] El mitwalli, T.A., Sklyar, V., Zeeman, G. & Lettinga, G., Low temperature pre-treatment of domestic sewage in an anaerobic hybrid or an anaerobic filter reactor, Biosource Technology, 82, pp.233-239, 2002. [15] Aquino, S.F. & Stuckey, D.C., Characterization of soluble microbial products (SMP) in effluents from anaerobic reactors, Proc. 9th Int. Symp. on Anaerobic Digestion, Antwerpen, Belgium, pp. 109-116, 2001. [16] Baloch, M.I. & Akunna, J.C, Granular bed baffled reactor (Grabbr): solution to a two-phase anaerobic digestion system, Journal of Environmental Engineering, 129 (11), pp. 1015-1021, 2003. [17] Tawfik, A., Ohashi., A. & Harada, H., Sewage treatment in a combined upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB)-down-flow hanging sponge (DHS) system, Biochemical Engineering Journal, 29, pp. 210-219, 2006. [18] Kobayashi, H.A., Stenstrom, M.K. & Mah, R.A., Treatment of low strength wastewater using the anaerobic filter, Water Research, 17(18), pp. 903-909, 1982. [19] Technologien, N., Bau- und Wirtschaftsberatung (TBW) GmbH, Frankfurt (Editor), Decentralized wastewater treatment methods for developing countries, GTZ GATE, 2001.
Section 6 Resources management
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A national parkless Northern Ireland: the tourism resource paradox and the implications for sustainability
J. P. W. Bell
School of Planning Architecture and Civil Engineering, Queens University Belfast, Northern Ireland
Abstract
This paper explores the resource paradox concept as it relates to predicted increased tourism demands on the Northern Irish countryside and the need to harness the economic opportunities presented by tourism whilst avoiding the simultaneous destruction of precious landscapes; national park designation potentially offers one mechanism for managing this impending paradox. The Mournes case study is drawn upon to highlight how local governance challenges represent a potential obstacle to securing widespread stakeholder support for the sustainability principles associated with contemporary national park models. Keywords: sustainable development, national park, resource paradox, environmental governance.
1 Introduction
This paper will firstly chart the emergence of sustainable development in a global context before examining its influence on protected area management in terms of widening the remit of protected areas to include people orientated objectives. Secondly, the role of national parks as global economic generators will be discussed in the context of the resource paradox. Focus will then revert to Northern Ireland where economic orientated governmental priorities provide the basis for discussing the impending resource paradox in Northern Ireland, a region heavily dependent on countryside tourism in its quest for economic growth. Finally, the paper will draw on a recent consultation process, relating to a proposed national park, undertaken in the Mourne Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB) to discuss the governance challenges associated with

designating national parks in Northern Ireland, potentially a prerequisite for more sustainable countryside management.
2 Sustainable development and conservation

National Parks represent one category of protected area and have long been seen as jewels in the crown of nature conservation [1]. However, the principle of designating protected areas is often perceived to reflect regional, national and particularly international needs at the expense of local subsistence needs resulting in local frustrations stemming from what are perceived to be externally imposed priorities [2]. As a consequence some rural communities have traditionally viewed pronouncements regarding national park designation as the voice of doom [3]. Others argue that management of natural areas has changed significantly from the strictly protectionist, keep people out mentality referred to as fortress conservation [4, 5] towards a new conservation which integrates conservation with socio-economic factors [6]. This broader conservation agenda has been fashioned by a number of global international movements. Since the first World Conservation Strategy (1980) and publication of Our Common Future [7] followed by the Fourth Congress on National Parks (1992), it has been recognised within the environmental community that environmental protection should be integrated with socio-economic, cultural and political considerations [8] both within and outside the protected area. The Brundtland Report (WCED, 1987) recognised the importance of public involvement in policy and practice if sustainable development was to be achieved: The law cannot enforce the common interest. It principally needs community knowledge and support, which entails greater public participation in the decisions which affect the environment. This is best achieved by decentralising the management of resources upon which local communities depend and giving these communities an effective say over the use of resources. It will also require promoting citizens initiatives, empowering peoples organisations, and strengthening local democracy [7]. The importance of public participation was reflected at the Rio Earth Summit (1992) which further challenged the strictly protectionist model of conservation through Local Agenda 21 [9]. It emphasised the importance of incorporating new bottom-up forms of participation and involvement of citizens, communities and NGOs in resolving potential conflicts between the environment and development [4, 10]. National park purposes have evolved to the extent that they are increasingly viewed as a mechanism for delivering sustainable development goals.
3 Sustainable development: the broadening purposes of protected area management

The global emergence of sustainable development [11] as the overriding principle for directing future international development has led to greater acknowledgement of the importance of landscape and this is reflected by the broadening of IUCN designations to include category V designations [8, 12].
493
There has been a theoretical shift in Western Europe from land protection towards establishing protected landscapes with increased attention to the importance of landscape as a management category [13]. Phillips [14] identifies two key reasons for this growing recognition; firstly, the realisation that pursuing conservation objectives alone within parks or reserves is not feasible and secondly the growing acknowledgement of the importance of involving local people residing within or outside protected area boundaries in the management of protected areas. Category V designations require a management approach which incorporates social, economic and cultural interests and are therefore suitable for multi-functional landscapes which possess a mosaic of interest groups. Furthermore, category V designations are particularly attractive for many countries as they offer a mechanism for contributing to the realisation of sustainable development objectives. Many countries still classify their category V designations as national parks which has resulted in their establishment in richly inhabited areas where strict conservation goals are potentially compromised by socio-economic and cultural considerations. National parks are now commonly established in multi-functional rural areas or humanised landscapes; the landscapes typically found in Northern Ireland.
4 National parks as economic generators: implications for sustainability

The national park concept has evolved to the extent that many have become major national and local economic generators through tourism. Whilst fulfilling their primary aim to conserve areas of environmental significance, protected areas can provide a marketable commodity through tourism. Although national parks were traditionally designated to primarily enhance environmental protection, models of national parks have evolved to incorporate, to varying degrees, social and economic interests. Even from their inception in the USA, national parks were recognised for their vast tourism potential [15, 16]. Many national parks have become key economic generators through growth of the nature based tourism industry [3, 17]. While McCool [18] gave little support to the belief that designating areas lead to a rise in visits, a more recent study by Fredman et al. [19] found a 40% increase in visitation levels following National Park designation in Sweden. Commodification of nature [2022], which views natural resource usage through a lens of economic exploitation, could be viewed as contradictory to the traditional concept of designating protected areas in the first place. This trend of utilising protected areas as economic tools is evident across the world [1, 20, 21, 23]. In light of the potential financial spin-offs associated with national park designation, balancing the interests of socioeconomic development with environmental protection has become a major challenge for management of protected areas worldwide. This challenge is magnified within multifunctional, inhabited landscapes where the social and economic futures of local communities are dependent on effective management of competing interests to derive multiple benefits from the landscape.

These dilemmas can be conceptualised through the resource paradox [24 26] which relates to the use versus overuse scenario; natural areas offer a resource to be marketed, yet overuse (potentially through tourism) could destroy the natural beauty upon which the tourist experience depends, thereby jeopardising future tourism. Just as issues have been raised regarding the oxymoronic nature of the term sustainable development [27, 28], similar contradictions emerge in the context of managing diverse and potentially irreconcilable interests within protected areas. Alternative phrases have been used to conceptualise the threats posed by unregulated tourism development. In reference to a document produced by the European Federation of Nature and National Parks of Europe (Loving Them to Death, 1993), Hamin [13] identifies the possibility of loving our parks to death (p350) and allowing scenic areas to become environmental sacrifice zones (p350). Furthermore, the hypothetical tourist area cycle of evolution, developed by Butler [29] suggests that the resource base can become quickly eroded through unregulated tourism.
5 The Northern Irish context

Currently no national parks exist in Northern Ireland despite numerous designation attempts stemming back as far as 1947. Failure to designate national parks in Northern Ireland can be attributed to, amongst other issues, strong landowner opposition and alternative political priorities (dealing with civil unrest) [30]. Recent attempts to designate the Mourne area stalled because of political hesitation in the face of local landowner objection and a heavily criticised public consultation [3133]. Whilst primary legislation still exists to designate national parks in Northern Ireland (Initially via the Amenity Land Act (NI) 1965 and more recently through the Amenity Lands Order (NI) 1985) an obvious gap in the legislation still exists; there is no provision for powers or mechanisms for national park management. While civil unrest contributed to environmental neglect in Northern Ireland [30] the prolonged violence and political instability also had a clear economic impact on the region [34]. Emerging from four decades of sectarian conflict, the Northern Ireland Programme for Government [35] outlined the importance of enhancing socio-economic fortunes [35] through maximising the value of existing assets. Whilst development of urban areas is seen as critical to achieving socio-economic and cultural renewal, rural areas also represent a means for instigating regional economic renewal. Indeed, a discussion paper produced by the Environmental Policy Group (2004) recognised the dependence of the Northern Irish tourism industry on countryside areas and particularly the major tourist destinations which lie inside areas currently designated as AONBs: tourism in Northern Ireland depends largely on the quality of the countryside, its natural attractions and its distinctive cultural heritage and many visitor destinations are within AONBs [36]. Due to thirty years of underinvestment tourism has the potential to grow faster in Northern Ireland than elsewhere in the UK [37]. Furthermore, the government aim to double tourism revenue by 2020 through increasing visitor
495
numbers from 3.2 million to 4.5 million [37]. Given that the tourism industry in Northern Ireland is heavily dependent on natural heritage the potential for tourism induced destruction of natural resources is heightened. The countryside tourism industry subsequently becomes threatened through self-destruction; this conundrum is conceptualised through the resource paradox and is referred to in a publication of the Environmental Policy Group (NI): National Park designation may help retain the landscape quality required to attract tourism and may increase visitor numbers to designated areas, as national parks are often a must see destination [36]. It is questionable whether increasing visitor numbers is compatible with retaining landscape quality. Currently, AONB represents the highest level of landscape protection in Northern Ireland. AONB management bodies in Northern Ireland have no statutory management powers, so it is questionable whether protected areas are being afforded adequate landscape protection and whether sufficient funding is available to manage these natural resources [38]. The Mourne Heritage Trust, the body responsible for managing the Mourne mountains, has expressed concerns regarding their ability to manage the rapidly deteriorating Mourne environment on diminishing resources [32]. Whilst the label of a national park has the potential to attract unsustainable tourist numbers [3, 17] it could also provide structures and mechanisms to actively manage tourism and safeguard natural resources. There is a delicate balance to be struck between enhancing/protecting the natural environment and maximising the opportunities presented by new rural economies such as tourism. National parks potentially offer one mechanism for managing or exacerbating this potential resource paradox. Multi-purpose management within deeply contested protected areas could ultimately be viewed as a sustainability challenge based on managing the tensions between the three principles of sustainability. The following section will introduce the Mournes case study before drawing on interview findings and further secondary document analysis to assess the governance challenges associated with a recent attempt to proceed towards national parks designation and discuss the resulting sustainability challenge.
6 The Mourne case study

6.1 An internationally significant area Owing to its rich natural heritage, the Mourne AONB boasts numerous International, National and European designations, including Irelands first National Nature Reserve at Murlough Bay. An area covering approximately 570km2 was designated as an AONB in 1965 and re-designated in 1986. In addition to biodiversity, the area has a rich legacy of human settlement etched indelibly across the landscape. Crucially, 50,000 people still reside within the Mourne and Slieve Croob area occupying a number of small and medium sized settlements and a sizeable proportion of dispersed rural dwellings [39]. Meanwhile there is a varied ownership pattern; Mourne Trustees, alongside the Water Service, the Forest Service and the National Trust own large tracts of the

High Mournes, while the entire area of the Mournes consists of over 1500 private farmers or landowners. This varied landscape has acquired different land uses as a result of the economic, environmental and social forces impacting on the area. While continuing to sustain traditional economies; industries such as agriculture (53% of the land is actively farmed with an average farm holding size of 15 hectares [40]), fishing, forestry and small scale quarrying, the Mournes also have a distinct recreational legacy. The Mournes, readily accessible from both Dublin and Belfast, have become a primary tourist destination in Northern Ireland, with approximately 150,000 visitors per annum [41]. The significance of the Mournes to the tourism industry in Northern Ireland was recognised by the Tourist Board (NITB) which selected the Mournes as one of five signature projects. Indeed tourism is now an economic cornerstone for the Mourne area contributing significantly to local employment and business revenue [41]. The multi-functional dimension of the Mournes, comprising distinct social, economic and environmental functions, combined with the peculiar ownership pattern, creates a highly complex and contested terrain. The challenges of accommodating diverse and often competing interests surfaced during recent national park discussions [31]. One particular conflict provides the primary focus of this paper; that is the relationship between the conservation interest and the economic based tourism interest. Speculative building, commercial enterprises such as quarrying and tourism are placing a significant burden on the Mourne landscape through erosion, disturbance of wildlife, congestion and litter [42]. It has been recognised that a sustainable approach to the development of tourism in the area needs to be established to manage these (tourism related) impacts [42]. With an apparent management deficit in the Mournes [32] the prospect of increased tourist numbers represents a potential threat to its environmental integrity. It is questionable whether the Mourne Heritage Trust is capable of providing the integrated and pro-active management to sustainably handle current let alone increased visitor levels. The structures and management arrangements associated with national parks represents one option for better managing tourism pressures. However, distaste for the current (low) levels of management in the Mournes came across strongly during interviews with local stakeholders. Enhancing management in Mourne, through national park designation, is therefore unlikely to gain widespread landowner support. The prospects of overcoming such governance challenges will now be referred to in the context of recent attempts to proceed towards the introduction of a national park in the Mournes. 6.2 A Mourne national park: the debate re-opened In 2002 a government commissioned report [43] concluded that the Mournes represented the most appropriate location for a national park in Northern Ireland [44]. An independent body was established in October, 2004; the Mourne National Park Working Party (MNPWP) comprising representatives from a range of organisations and interest groups. The MNPWP was asked by government to commission research examining possible national park
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boundaries, to develop proposals regarding the possible management structure and conduct a formal consultation before reporting back to the Minister. The purpose of the MNPWP consultation was clearly not to gauge levels of support for a national park by conducting a referendum style yes or no national park consultation [39], but rather to open up the debate (p13) through a process of engaging with and informing the public as well as hearing views on a proposed national park boundary and the possible impacts of designation. 6.3 The consultation process Armed with the findings from various consultants reports and a possible boundary the MNPWP launched a formal consultation on 1st September 2006 lasting until 31st January 2007 targeted specifically at the local Mourne population. Following a widespread leaflet drop, the consultation comprised a series of public meetings and specific sector meetings whereby a panel of experts were available to discuss issues raised. Over 1150 people attended the ten public consultation events, 79 written submissions were received and 3 petitions submitted. The findings from these information gathering processes culminated in the Working Partys Report to the Minister [39] which was submitted in September 2007, comprising 29 core recommendations. 6.4 A critique of the working party consultation In their report, the MNPWP recognised a number of weaknesses associated with the consultation process and subsequent commentators have identified numerous shortcomings. This section will firstly outline the core weaknesses of the consultation as identified in the MNPWP report, before drawing on some wider literature and further interview responses to explore aspects of this criticism in more detail. The first acknowledged criticism by the MNPWP relates to coverage. While stating that the consultation was wide reaching, the MNPWP notes that criticism was directed at the fact consultation meetings were limited to the Mourne locality [39]. This issue has resonance with a key debate in environmental management regarding the extent to which regional or national interests should be considered within protected area management [45]. A Northern Ireland wide consultation was outside the remit of the MNPWP, whose operational effectiveness appears to have been somewhat constrained by both time and money [32]. The second criticism acknowledged by the MNPWP relates to the format adopted during the consultative meetings. It was recognised that the meeting format did not facilitate the expression of a range of views [39] with one interviewee describing the public meetings as farcical. A further interviewee described how he felt rail roaded to an extent that no matter what you said they were shouting and opposing it you know, but you didnt get a fair crack of the whip..a lot of the open meetings were commandeered by the farming community. Some stakeholders perceived the traditional top table meeting format of experts answering to a crowd to be inappropriate and instead

championed a surgery, drop-in style approach (interview with Mr David Fox). Indeed, all stakeholders interviewed appeared to voice dismay at the way in which the consultation meetings were conducted. Disruptive behaviour, a lack of respect towards differing views and an absence of meaningful dialogue are some of the factors which mired the meetings [3133]. A particularly strong and vocal no campaign [39] was evident throughout the process, mainly directed by an element of the local farming community. Notably, support for the MNPWP from this sector was eroded following a radio interview with the chairman of the MNPWP which created a perception within the farming community that the chairman was favourable towards the idea of national park [31]. Compounded by a series of Ministerial position statements, this radio interview created a feeling that a national park was a done deal [32, 39]. While some have labelled the vociferous no campaign as constituting an unrepresentative section of the farming community [33] opinion was split between interviewees regarding the true extent of the opposition to a national park. One interviewee commented; the pro voice is stronger than the no voice in numbers but the tactics that the no vote uses has got them a bigger representation than I think theyre worth. Regardless of the true extent of the opposition, the strength of the no campaign and the powerful position they adopted had stark ramifications for the entire consultation process. Meaningful engagement with the farming community was limited and the no campaigners showed reluctance to engage in the consultation meetings. Their actions appeared to have an intimidatory effect on other sections of the community. For example, interviewees reported threats to boycott businesses if chambers of commerce supported a national park, and members of the MNPWP and other local representatives were challenged somewhat aggressively in the course of their day-to-day business. Claire Maxwell, a local business woman commented; I felt intimidated by the other side and I had received phone calls and things like that telling me to change my mind, what am I talking about; things like that you know. Meanwhile, it was felt by two stakeholders that there was a paucity of ordinary people involved in the consultation process; that the moderate voice of people who werent so zealous that they wanted to go to a meeting and shout the odds and they werent so much in favour that they felt the need to stand up for the idea. Theyre just you know theyre the people walking up and down the street......who werent really heard (Mr. David Fox). A lack of engagement with the general public could have stemmed from a widespread perception within the local community that this issue doesnt affect me and a belief that this was a ding dong battle between conservationists and landowners (interview with the chairman of USPC). Indeed one member of the MNPWP explained how a member of the public commented on how they thought the public meetings were for landowners only. McAreavey [32] refers to the power differentials in a somewhat different context to those inter-communal power relations as evidenced above. McAreavey [32] recognises the particularly influence of the government who administered the consultation through a superimposed body (the Working Party); a rather different but equally salient factor which had a similar impact in terms of
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constraining certain individuals within the consultation process. One interviewee commented that farmers are conservative and they dont like change....people dont like groups who turn up to organise you, thats why there is such incredible widespread dislike for the Mourne Heritage Trust (Mr Gareth McGrath) while another interviewee compared the dominant voices within the MNPWP consultation, to the Tea Party activists in America describing them as the very reactionary right wing of both sides of our community; the Nationalists and the Unionists, the very anti-change sort of brigade (Mr. David Fox). The latter suggested that much of the opposition to the national park proposal came from rather conservative elements of the community who tend to take a strong ideological or gut reaction against government led or collective initiatives, to the point of resisting something almost for the sake of it or in a self-interested fashion. This anti-government sentiment which came across in a number of subsequent interviews may explain the apparent disdain for the idea of being managed or introducing enhanced management in the Mournes (as suggested by Mr. Gareth McGrath), through what are perceived to be externally imposed management arrangements. While certain individuals and stakeholder groupings acquired more dominant positions and exerted their influence within the local community (an example of horizontal or inter-communal power differentials) this power was seemingly mobilised in response to the unreasonable way in which the Mourne national park idea was initiated and pursued (vertical power) by government. The vociferous and dominating nature of the anti-national park voice which contributed to suppressing widespread public involvement, appears to have been a reaction to the way government initiated and conducted the process. The actions of government appear to have fuelled a long standing distaste toward government and from an early stage the consultation was seen as another example of government wielding an inappropriate level of influence. Government
Vertical power of government during the process of choosing, initiating and conducting a consultation in the Mournes Horizontal or inter-communal power differentials between stakeholders in response to a perceived government imposition
Local Mourne stakeholders Figure 1: Demonstrating the vertical and horizontal power relations affecting the Mourne national park consultation process.
A third key criticism of the consultation process again relating to the consultation meetings, was that they offered little in the way of information or answers to questions posed [31, 32, 39]. However it appears that different

stakeholder understandings of the purpose of the consultation subsequently generated varying expectations of the consultation process. The Working party cited the fact that they were commissioned to open up the debate and report on local views, rather than consult on concrete proposals, as a reason for having a lack of information. Indeed, the consultation was undertaken within a legislative vacuum which meant the Working party was unable to provide an outline of possible national park management structures. This lack of information appears to have critically undermined the consultation, through failing to allay fears within, particularly, the landowning and farming community. These perceived, or possibly at times irrational or imagined fears, [31] were allowed to fester perpetuating a fear of the unknown [31]. Sections of the landowning community maintained their stance of outright opposition, unwilling to engage in constructive dialogue or listen to possible solutions to concerns (interview with Mr. David Fox), particularly around access. While the perception that a decision to designate had already been made appears to have been particularly damaging to the consultation, the unwillingness within parts of the community to discuss the issue, suggests that resentment towards a Mourne national park stems from something deeper than the those concerns which are typical of many rural areas or national parks in the UK. Following completion of the official Mourne National Park consultation period in 2007 it was reported that the gap between supporters and critics of the national park seems to be widening [46]. The notable failures inherent in the MNPWP consultation, and the disillusionment evident in the local community, could undermine future efforts to proceed towards a national park designation. Govan et al. [47] have observed how within a national park context, if a sense of community disempowerment takes root, it can take many years to overcome. Prospects of designating a Mourne national park in the immediate future could therefore be severely hampered, as a result of this initial, seemingly flawed [31, 32, 46], consultation process. However, the context within which the last consultation was conducted was one of relative economic prosperity. Changing global economic circumstances were cited by one interviewee as a possible catalyst for generating more meaningful engagement from the landowning and farming community. Rather than allow a number of dominant individuals to act on their behalf presenting a front of outright aversion; in light of prolonged economic austerity, previously silent stakeholders may now be more willing to engage constructively in discussions to assess the possible benefits of a national park (interview with Mr. David Fox). While there was unanimous agreement amongst interviewees that economic considerations should not be the sole driving force behind designation there was acknowledgment amongst those interviewed that if politicians decided to take forth a national park designation in Northern Ireland it would more than likely be to fulfil an economic agenda. As Mr. Fox explained: I suppose this is probably my concern, now that government has said it does want to go for national parks in Northern Ireland my feeling is that it is based largely on an economic rationale, which is fine....but I would be a wee bit concerned that its too much seen as its a money spinner as opposed to protection.
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7 Conclusion
In light of the ambitious governmental desire to double revenue from tourism over the next ten years [37], it is imperative that this engine of economic growth is managed in a way that is both socio-economically beneficial and environmentally sensitive. Due to the underdeveloped nature of tourism in Northern Ireland, the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment (DETI) have predicted a faster rate of tourism growth in Northern Ireland, compared to other UK regions [37]. Tourism is clearly an instigator of change [48] and the potential for rapid growth in Northern Ireland presents both an opportunity and a threat. The structures associated with a national park offer one mechanism for managing tourism growth whilst maintaining and enhancing the natural resource base to secure the longevity of socially acceptable, economically viable and environmentally sensitive tourism in Northern Ireland. Significant opposition to the idea of national park appears to exist within the Mourne locality and recent consultation did little to alleviate local and often irrational fears [31]. On the basis of the best practice advice offered by Govan et al. [47] it could take many years to regain the trust of a disillusioned and divided local community. Govan et al. [47] have stated the importance of securing political support for national parks. Prospects of proceeding towards national park designation or providing some form of enhanced, pro-active management of the Mournes could therefore hinge on the willingness of elected representatives to move the issue forward. Greater recognition of the economic benefits that national park can bring could be a motivating factor in galvanising the national park debate at government level, given that the Northern Ireland Programme for Government [35] has identified growing the economy (p2) as its top priority. Not only do national parks contribute to enhanced landscape protection but potentially they offer a mechanism of socio-economic renewal in rural areas. However, political hesitancy in the face of landowner opposition [30] has, for a number of decades, undermined attempts to introduce national parks in Northern Ireland. Perhaps, as in Scotland, in the aftermath of devolution, politicians may view national parks as a potential symbol of political progress [4, 49]. However, the evidence to date suggests that devolved government in Northern Ireland could have the reverse effect. For example, the abandonment of PPS14 in favour of a more relaxed or balanced rural planning policy (PPS21) supposedly giving greater consideration to local socio-economic needs, raises a possible environmental dilemma associated with devolved governing. Whilst contributing to potentially more democratic decision making and policy making (representing local priorities), local socio-economic considerations potentially take precedence over wider environmental concerns. If harnessed correctly national park offers a mechanism for managing the tourism resource paradox and achieving socio-economic and environmental goals in tandem. While Scottish devolution was a catalyst for national park establishment [49, 50], it could be argued that devolution has potentially had an obstructive influence on enhancing countryside protection in Northern Ireland. It is still early days in the life of the Northern Ireland

Assembly but it remains to be seen whether this trend will be reversed in the near future.
References
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[33] Rowan, E., Merging Collaborative Planning and Environmental Valuation; eliciting preferences for a national park designation in Northern Ireland. Queen's University Belfast: Belfast, 2009. [34] Deloitte, Research into the financial cost of the Northern Ireland divide. Deloitte: London, 2007. [35] Northern Ireland Executive, Programme for Government 2008-2011. Northern Ireland Executive: Economic and Policy Unit, 2008. [36] Northern Ireland Environmental Policy Group, National Parks and other Protected Landscape Areas: A discussion of options for establishing national parks and managing other outstanding landscapes in Northern Ireland. Department of the Environment: Belfast, 2004. [37] Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment, A Draft Tourism Strategy for Northern Ireland to 2020. DETI: Belfast, 2010. [38] Johnson, A., Northern Ireland's national park back in the wilderness, The Independent Media: London, 2009. [39] Mourne National Park Working Party, Report to the Minister. Environment and Heritage Service: Belfast, 2007. [40] Countryside Access and & Activities Network, Mourne Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty Access Study. CAAN: Belfast, 2007. [41] Buchanan, C. and Partners Ltd., Tourism in Mourne: Current and Potential Economic Impact. Author: Belfast, 2006. [42] Mourne Heritage Trust, An Introduction to the Mourne Biodiversity Action Plan - A reflection of Mourne's Rich Natural Heritage. MHT: Newcastle (NI), 2007. [43] Bungay et al., Special Places Need Special Care. Europarc: 2002. [44] BBC, National park plan moves closer. 2002; 6th January, 2011Available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/2282701.stm. [45] Warren, C., The 'natural': conservation management, Managing Scotland's Environment, ed. Warren, C., Edinburgh University Press: Edinburgh, pp. 214, 2009. [46] Cassidy M., Community split over national park. 2007; March, 30th, 2010Available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/6388157.stm. [47] Govan, H., Inglis, A., Pretty, J., Harrison, M., Wightman, A., Best Practice in community participation for National Parks. Scottish Natural Heritage: Edinburgh, 1998. [48] Glasson, J., Godfrey, K., Goodey, B., Towards visitor impact management: Visitor impacts, carrying capacity and management responses in Europe's historic towns and cities. Avebury: England, 1995. [49] Rennie, A., The importance of National Parks to nation building: support for the National Parks Act (2000) in the Scottish Parliament. Scottish Geographical Journal, 122(3), pp. 223, 2006. [50] Thompson, N., The practice of government in a devolved Scotland: the case of the designation of the Cairngorms National Park. Environment and Planning C: Government & Policy, 24(3), pp. 459-472, 2006.
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The development of seaweed farming as a sustainable coastal management method in Indonesia: an opportunities and constraints assessment
A. Zamroni, K. Laoubi & M. Yamao
Graduate School of Biosphere Science, Hiroshima University, Japan
Abstract
Indonesian coastal areas are continually experiencing pressures that affect their sustainability. Beginning in the 1980s, the Indonesian government has introduced numerous development programs to address this problem. One type of program is seaweed farming projects. The aim of these projects is to provide the fishing community with alternative, environmentally-friendly fishing activities, as well as improving its livelihood. The objective of this paper is to assess the opportunities and constraints of seaweed farming projects with regard to sustainable coastal management in Indonesia. This study was conducted in the South Sulawesi province of Indonesia (the largest producer of seaweed in the country) by administering semi-structured and structured questionnaires to 200 fishermen. The results demonstrate that seaweed farming, mainly of the species Eucheuma cottonii, has become the main means of livelihood for these fishermen. As a result, destructive fishing has been considerably reduced and awareness has increased regarding the need to conserve the mangrove areas that protect the coastal ecosystem from degradation. Seaweed farming plays an important role in improving the socioeconomic conditions of fishers communities, such as increasing their income and enhancing family and community participation, particularly that of women. However, constraints hinder the development of this activity. These constraints include diseases and post-harvest difficulties, problems of farm ownership, shifts in the monsoon season and marketing limitations. The marketing system that is in place has provided important services. One of the most important of these services is the quick delivery by middlemen of investment funds and money for daily

operational expenses. These loans are made without interest charges. The middleman role is perceived as an important link that allows seaweed farmers to sustain their activities. However, this system has created a heavy dependence on the middlemen and, as a result, allowed the development of a business monopoly. Finally, the study concludes that the development of seaweed farming can promote the sustainability of the fishery sector and of coastal areas, as well as render fishery livelihoods more stable and secure. Keywords: seaweed farming, coastal management, coastal development, sustainability.
1 Introduction
Indonesias coastal zones constitute one of the major ecosystems of the areas biosphere and are important for their biodiversity [1]. Nevertheless, these coastal zones have experienced several stresses that affect their sustainability. These stresses stem from environment degradation and resource depletion in coastal regions (e.g., mangrove and coral reef damage), land-based marine pollution, overfishing, conflicting utilization of marine space, insufficient capacity in local governments and a lack public participation [2]. Since the 1980s, the Indonesian government has implemented a range of policies and projects aimed at sustaining coastal zones. Among these projects are efforts to develop various kinds of sustainable, environmentally-friendly aquaculture, such as seaweed farming. Seaweed farming can play a significant role in nutrient recycling [3], as well as increase local biodiversity and food security for coastal and island communities [4]. An additional advantage of seaweed farming is its beneficial effect on ecology and climate change. By trapping carbon, seaweed farming could be a tool in the carbon credit system that is being developed. Seaweed farming also removes nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients from local waters, and could therefore also be eligible for nutrient credits in an eutrophication-reduction system [5]. In the realm of social policy, seaweed farming is a sustainable form of aquaculture that has particularly benefited women and has contributed to government-sponsored poverty alleviation programs [6]. As an alternative means of livelihood, seaweed farming is crucial to the implementation of a system of sustainable ecosystem management [7]. However, the development of Indonesian seaweed farming is affected by various factors, including the availability of socio-economic, resources, public policy, and technology. Developing policies and programs to enhance sustainable coastal management requires an assessment of the constraints and opportunities that characterize the situation of coastal communities. This papers objective is to assess the constraints and opportunities associated with the development of seaweed farming. This paper will also provide recommendations for increasing the sustainability of this farming activity and, thereby, for improving sustainable coastal management in Indonesia.
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2 Methodology
A survey was conducted in South Sulawesi Province in the eastern part of Indonesia to provide data for the study. Two districts, Takalar and Jeneponto, were chosen for sampling. The survey covered four villages, one village in Takalar District and three villages in Jeneponto District. These villages are representative of coastal communities on the Laikang Bay that contain active fishermen. Laikang Bay connects these two districts, which influence one another (see figure 1).
Figure 1:
Map of Laikang Bay South Sulawesi Province.
South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia is located in the southernmost part of Sulawesi Island (formerly Celebes). South Sulawesi is located between S 0o12' 8' and from E 116o48' up to E 122o36', while Makassar City (the capital city of South Sulawesi Province) is located from S 5o 30' 18'' up to S 5o 14' 49'' and from E 119o 18' 97'' up to E 119o 32' 3''. The average daily temperature in Makassar fluctuates between 22oC and 33oC. Takalar District is located on the south side of South Sulawesi Province. This district has a land area of 566.51 km2 and is located between S 5o3' and S 5o38' and from E 119o22' up to E 119o39'. It is bounded by Gowa District on the north, Gowa District and Jeneponto District on the east, Flores Sea on the south and Makassar Strait on the west (Takalar Marine and Fisheries Service Office(TMFSO) and Narayana Adicipta Persero, 2007, unpublished). Takalar District is about 42 km from Makassar City, the capital city of South Sulawesi Province. Interviews and other data collection activities were conducted in Laikang Village, located in the Managarabombang Sub-District of Takalar District, 16 km from Takalar City and 63 km from Makassar City. Laikang Village is one of the 12 villages of Mangarabombang Sub-District in Takalar District. It has an area of 19.6 km2, equal to 19.57% of Mangarabombang Sub-District (100.14 km2). The village population is

approximately 4,139, or 12% of the total population of Mangarabombang SubDistrict (35,526 people); the population density of Laikang Village is about 211 people/km2. Laikang Village is about 15.7 km from the capital city of the Mangarabombang Sub-District and 23.3 km from the capital city of the Takalar District (TMFSO and Narayana Adicipta Persero, 2007). Administratively, Laikang Village consists of six sub-villages: Laikang, Puntondo, Boddia, Turikale, Pandala, and Ongkoa. Jeneponto District is located in the western part of South Sulawesi Province. It is also a coastal area and stretches for about 95 km in the southern region, covering an area of 74,979 hectares or 749.79 km2. South Sulawesi is located between S 5016'13'' and S 5039'35'' and between E 12040'19'' and E 1207'51''. It is bounded by Gowa District on the north, the Flores Sea on the south, Takalar District on the west and Bantaeng on the east. Jeneponto District consists of 9 districts and 105 villages. The population of Jeneponto District in 2004 was 324,927, consisting of 158,043 men and 166,884 women. There were 18,943 fishermen, fish farmers and seaweed farmers. Data collection was conducted in August and September 2010 from a total sample of 200 farmers who practiced seaweed farming. Samples were obtained from four villages, with 100 samples collected from Laikang Village, 40 from Garassikang Village, 40 from LP Bahari Village and 20 from Ujunga. The samples were selected randomly. Interviews were conducted by using structured and semi-structured questionnaires. In-depth, face-to-face interviews were also carried out to obtain more detailed information regarding seaweed farmers and their socio-economic environment. The data collected were analyzed using the statistical tool SPSS 18. Descriptive statistics were used to derive the distribution of frequencies, means, percentages, and standard deviations. In addition, a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) matrix was used to identify constraints and opportunities in seaweed farming.

3.1 Socio-economic characteristics of seaweed farmers As shown in Table 1, all seaweed farmers involved in this study were male (100%), with an average age of 37.04 years. Their level of formal education was low, averaging 2.42 years. This is typical of coastal communities, which frequently have a low education level. In this study, 22.5% of seaweed farmers had never received a formal education. The seaweed farmers in Laikang Bay are of the Makassar ethnic group. In Laikang Bay, fishermen rely on a variety of livelihood activities, including capture fisheries, seaweed farming, seaweed cultivation combined with fishing, seaweed farming in combination with public services and a combination of seaweed farming with other non-fishing activities. This picture confirms the contention by Le Tixerant et al., [8] that human activity in maritime areas depends on the socioeconomic context in which the activity evolved. In this
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Table 1: Variable 25 26 40 41 60 Male Female
Socio-economic data on seaweed farmers in Laikang Bay. Age (years) Frequency 17 115 68 200 0 105 41 9 45 0 200 0 0 200 0 92 74 4 30 27 173 115 83 2 137 63 % 8.5 57.6 34 100 0 52.5 20.5 4.5 22.5 0 100 0 0 100 0 46 37 2 15 13.5 86.5 57.5 41.5 1 68.5 31.5 Mean 37.04 S.D 9.6
Gender (male/female)
1 2.42
0 2
Education Elementary school Junior high school Senior high school None Marital status Single Married Widow Ethnicity Bugis Makassar Javanese Main Income Generating Activity Seaweed culture Seaweed culture + capture fishing Seaweed culture + public officer Seaweed culture + non-fishing Number of family members (persons) 2 35 Income per month (IDR) 500,000 501,000 - 1000,000 >1000,000 Number of seaweed plots (1 plot=100 m x 30 m) 2 3
1 USD = 9,013 IDR (Indonesian Rupiah), November 2010
4.02
2.9
1.86 1.44
0.34 0.5
1.32
0.46
Field survey 2010
study, some seaweed farmers (46%) conducted seaweed farming as their sole economic activity. Meanwhile, other farmers (37%) combined seaweed farming with fishing, which is possible because the method for farming Eucheuma cottonii does not require the expenditure of much time after planting. Farmers check their farm three to four times a week after fishing is completed. This situation accords with understanding supplied by Carneiro [9], which argues that livelihood interventions are a supplementary form of income that enhances a households economic resilience.

Most fishermen continue to earn low incomes from their work. Some fishermen (57.5%) earned an income below 500,000 Indonesian rupiah (IDR) per month, whereas others (41.5%) had incomes between 501,000 and 1000,000 IDR per month. These figures represent total incomes. The fishermen use their incomes to support their families. They have, on average, 1.86 children per household. Seaweed farmers in Laikang Bay in both the Takalar and Jeneponto Districts possess 1.32 seaweed plots per farmer on average, where the size of one plot is equal to 100 meters x 30 meters. Most of the farmers (68.5%) have fewer than two plots. However, farm ownership is highly variable, depending as it does on the economic means of the individual farmer (Table 1). 3.2 The critical role of marketing in seaweed farming sustainability The survey results reveal that the existing marketing system for seaweed farming plays an important role in sustaining seaweed farming activities. In Takalar village, seaweed farmers sell seaweed in dried form to traders/middlemen at the village level. These traders then sell the product to traders at the district level, who, in turn, sell it to wholesalers who have warehouses in Makassar/Ujung Pandang, or to a processing company there. The usual age of harvestable seaweed is 45 days. However, seaweed farmers may harvest seaweed at 20 days, 25 days and 30 days, or even at 15 days. Such harvesting is undertaken when disease affects the seaweed, which can result in damage to, or the death of, those plants. Diseased seaweed can still be sold, but at lower-than-normal prices. Wholesalers receive shipments of seaweed from traders who have become frequent partners. Shipments from seaweed traders are still dried for a day or more until the water content reaches 34%. Seaweed is not considered to be of suitable quality if the water content is greater than 40% and dirt constitutes more than 5%. In such cases, the seaweed will either be rejected or be bought at reduced prices by wholesalers. The trust factor is important between wholesalers and traders with strong business ties. Wholesalers exist because they are able to provide a more effective and efficient distribution system than any other participants in the market [10]. The marketing structure of seaweed in Takalar is illustrated in figure 2 below.
Seaweed farmers
Dried seaweed
Middleman in Village
Trader in Takalar (District)
Exporters/storage in Makassar
Figure 2:
The agent of company
Marketing pattern of dried seaweed at Takalar district.
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Fishermen at the village level who cultivate seaweed can also serve as middlemen. The company's agent referred to in the marketing chain is not an employee of a processing company or an exporter, but someone who is appointed by the company to purchase raw materials. The pattern of seaweed marketing in Takalar, as described above, is similar to that in Gorontalo, Southeast Sulawesi. In Gorontalo, dried seaweed is sold to a local trader, who then sells it to a wholesaler, processing company, or exporter [5]. Roy [11] emphasizes that, in order to expand the market, each part of the chain may need information on the seaweeds characteristics and on consumer preferences. 3.2.1 The middleman's role According to Ju et al., [12], intermediaries begin by choosing the best goods, then buy the goods from producers and sell them to consumers. In the current study, middlemen were described as buying dried seaweed from farmers containing a moisture content of 60%. The purchase price for dried seaweed is 4000 IDR/kg. Middlemen located in farming areas, and traders in some areas, are members of the seaweed farmers group; some even serve as heads of groups. After a significant amount of seaweed is collected, it is then sold to middlemen who live in the district and then sold to the warehousing or processing enterprises in Makassar. This procedure was confirmed by Gadde and Snehota [13], who argue that middlemen bridge the production-consumption gap. This study finds that some seaweed farmers are closely affiliated with particular traders/middleman. Consequently, they sell their produce to those middlemen (see Figure 3). Figure 3, below, shows that seaweed farmers go directly to middlemen to borrow money. These funds are used for restarting the planting cycle and are allocated either for seaweed seed stock or for equipment needed to repair the seaweed farm. This loan is made without any collateral. In return, seaweed farmers must sell their product exclusively to the middleman who made the loan. In these cases, middlemen do not fix a time limit for debt repayment. However, the dried seaweed bought from farmers is more similar to cash paid immediately to the middleman rather than to delayed payment, as is the case with seaweed farmers in Fiji [14]. Seaweed farmers do derive some benefits from this
Figure 3:
Relationship pattern between middlemen and seaweed farmers.

relationship: 1) seaweed farmers can quickly obtain loans, 2) there is no interest charge on loans, 3) the farmers get the assurance that they will sell their harvest and 4) the farmers get cash payments. This is similar to the situation in Kenya, wherein middlemen act both as direct links to the external market and as the source of credit for fishermen [15]. In this study, the relationship between the middleman and seaweed cultivation is based on the viability of the seaweed business. The double role middlemen play cannot alone guarantee a sustainable business, although the middleman is assured of the availability of dried seaweed from the farmers who borrow capital from him. This means that middlemen and seaweed farmers are implicitly tied to one another in a mutually beneficial relationship. Day [16] emphasizes the value of such relationship building when there are only a few valuable customers who engage in large transactions. However, the relationship between middlemen and fishermen/seaweed farmers is being transformed, in the long term, into a trade monopoly at the local level. 3.3 Constraints and opportunities analysis Fishermen face several constraints in pursuing their livelihoods. Changes in the monsoon season and its cycles are, at this time, a major problem in the development of seaweed cultivation. Long market channels and income distribution continue to remain major obstacles in Laikang Bays seaweed business. A lack of financial capital is the difficulty fishermen most often experience, especially when they begin planting. Seaweed farmers use various tactics to resolve this problem. Instead of formal financial institutions, which they rarely utilize, fishermen usually borrow money from the family, relatives, friends and brokers (middlemen) in the village. This type of borrowing occurs because small-scale fishers still have problems in accessing financial capital from formal financial institutions, such as commercial banks. In addition, there are problems with the availability of seaweed seedlings, the quality of the seed, land tenure, a disease that attacks the seaweed plant and the post-harvest process. Price fluctuations are now perceived as a minor problem. Recently, the most critical problems affecting seaweed development are associated with marketing and breeding. Seaweed farmers have not received many economic benefits from the current marketing of dried seaweed. These marketing problems, allegedly, are associated with institutional problems, network marketing, and a communications gap between producers and consumers when the seaweed is not produced in accordance with standards established by the processing industry and exporters. These problems allow the industry to buy seaweed at low prices. Middlemen can act as an alternative, advantageous way to reduce market frictions [17]. The accessibility and risks of the product market depend on market structure, size, expected demand levels and the nature of competition [18]. These constraints generally indicate that cooperation among seaweed stakeholders is not strong or well developed. Smith and Renard [19] suggest that, in order to expand fishers' income-generating activities, they should apply a strategy based on integrated technology, ecology, sociology and economics.
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Table 2:
Matrix of SWOT for sustainable seaweed farming in Laikang Bay.

Strengths: - Carrying capacity of the coastal environment still supports farming activity - Self-motivation of fishermen to cultivate seaweed - Farming methods (investment and costs) are still affordable for fishermen. - Seaweed farming is the main source of income supporting fishermens expenditures. - Production of seaweed tends to increase annually. Weaknesses: - Lack of capital for developing seaweed farming - Diseases, such as ice-ice - Farming patterns depend on the monsoon seasons - Changes/shifts in the monsoon seasons - Long market chain - Lack of income management - Lack of financial capital - Seed availability and quality - Farm ownership - The price of dried seaweed fluctuates - Post-harvest process
Internal
External Opportunities: S O strategy W O strategy - Local government Expand the potential farm Encourage seaweed farmers to policies support seaweed area in an optimal and improve their knowledge of as a leading product environmentally friendly business management, including - Establishment of a manner to meet the market aspects of finance, farming seaweed processing demand for seaweed methods and post-harvesting company processes. - The demand for dried Improve knowledge of quality seaweed has increased standards as well as of market - National policies support demand. seaweed farming as an alternative livelihood - National business agency and private companies encourage the development of seaweed processing. - Market opportunities W T strategy Threats: S T strategy Develop alternative models Build public understanding and Climate change of farming methods to awareness of environmental Profit-taking actions minimize risks protection Decreasing Build a farm utilization model environmental quality Prohibit activities that could reduce the quality of No standard price for seaweed dried seaweed Field survey, 2010
Despite these constraints, fishermen have the capacity to improve their livelihood activities. This study shows that the factors that can strengthen and further develop those activities include decreasing the amount of fish harvested, promoting and benefiting from seaweed cultivation as an alternative source of

livelihood, tapping support from local governments and taking advantage of opportunities in the market. These factors are of basic interest to fishermen who engage in seaweed farming as an alternative means of livelihood. In the future, at least some these factors will represent viable opportunities. First, the demand for raw material has increased year by year, in both domestic and foreign markets. Second, the policies of the national government support the development of seaweed farming. Third, the Government of Indonesia (GoI) encourages private companies and national business agencies to develop seaweed processing. However, climate change, profit-taking, the erosion of the environmental and the lack of standard prices for dried seaweed pose threats to fishermen in their quest to take advantage of these opportunities (see Table 2). The Indonesian government should encourage all stakeholders, particularly local governments, to assume greater roles in this realm. The private sector wishes to play a role in diversifying the production of seaweed. Informal leaders can use their power to encourage local people to engage in the management of local resources.
4 Conclusion
The results of this study show that seaweed farming, mainly of the species Eucheuma cottonii, has become the main livelihood for fishers in the studied area. Fishing has been replaced by seaweed farming as the main source of income, a trend that can be seen in the increasing number of seaweed farms along the coastline of Laikang Bay. As a result, destructive fishing has declined considerably and awareness has increased regarding the need to preserve the mangrove areas that protect the coastal ecosystem from degradation. Seaweed farming plays an important role in the socioeconomic condition of fishing communities. Such farming increases income and stimulates family and community participation, particularly that of women. However some constraints hinder the development of this activity, such as disease, post-harvest difficulties, farm ownership, shifts in the monsoon season, and marketing constraints. In addition, the availability and quality of seaweed seeds, issues surrounding farm ownership, predatory behavior and imperfections in post-harvest methods are also obstacles. However, farmers can overcome these obstacles. Positive factors include the lack of restrictions on the development of coastal areas, the availability of successful farming methods and the price of dried seaweed. The dependence of fishing communities on seaweed farming as a primary source of household support has spurred the quick development of seaweed farming. This has led to increasingly vigorous farming activity in the coastal areas. The density of seaweed plots and the unclear status of land ownership have sparked conflicts among rival claimants to farms. Therefore, a reassessment of farm-ownership and a determination of the carrying capacity of the coastal environment in Laikang Bay are needed to maintain the balance between the environment and the social benefits of seaweed farming. The marketing system has provided benefits, such as speedily supplying investment and daily operational funds, without interest, to seaweed farmers
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through the efforts of middlemen. Middlemen are perceived to be very important to sustaining seaweed farming. However, this situation has created a heavy dependency on middlemen and, consequently, also created a monopoly. Nevertheless, the activities of middlemen will be necessary to the operation of the dried seaweed supply chain in Laikang Bay as long as the local and central governments cannot facilitate the creation of an effective alternative market chain at the local level. Finally, the study concludes that the development of seaweed farming can promote the sustainability of the fishery sector and coastal areas and make the livelihood of fishermen more stable and secure.
References
[1] Sukardjo, S., Integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) in Indonesia: a view from a mangrove ecologist. Southeast Asian Studies, (40), 2. pp. 200-218, 2002. [2] Laely Nurhidayah, Toward Integrated Coastal Zone Management in Indonesia: Framework Assessment and comparative analysis. United Nations-Japan Foundation, Working paper 28, January 2010. [3] Sorgeloos, P., Technologies for Sustainable Aquaculture Development, Plenary Lecture II. In R.P. Subasinghe, P., Bueno, M.J., Phillips, C., Hough, S.E., McGladdery & Arthus, J.R.(Eds.) Aquaculture in the third Millennium. Technical Proceedings of the Conference on Aquaculture in the Third Millennium, Bangkok, Thailand, 20-25 February 2000. NACA, Bangkok and FAO, Rome: pp.23-28. [4] Kinch, J., Bagita, J., & Bate, M., Exploring the Potential for Seaweed Farming in the Milne Bay Province, Papua New Guinea. SPC Fisheries Newsletter, (104). pp. 25-31, 2003. [5] Neish, I.C., Assessment of the Seaweed value chain in Indonesia. USAID, 2007 Online: http://www.amarta.net/amarta/ConsultancyReport/EN/ AMARTA%20Value%20Chain%20Assessment%20Seaweed.pdf. [6] Bryceson, I., Coastal aquaculture developments in Tanzania: sustainable and non-sustainable experience. Western Indian Ocean J. Mar. Sci, (1), 1. pp. 1-10, 2002. [7] Alder, J., Sloan, N.A., Uktolseya, H., A comparison of management planning and implementation in three Indonesian Marine Protected Areas. Ocean and Coastal Management, (24). pp. 179198, 1994. [8] Le Tixerant M., Gourmelon F., Tissot C. & Brosset D., Modelling of human activity development in coastal sea areas. Journal of Coastal Conservation. Springer, 2010. [9] Carneiro, G., Marine management for human development: A review of two decades of scholarly evidence. Marine Policy, (35), 3. pp. 351-363, 2010 [10] Rosenbloom, B., The Wholesalers Role in the Marketing Channel: Disintermediation vs Reintermediation. International Review of Retail, Distribution and Consumer Research, (17), 4. pp. 327-339, 2007

[11] Roy, A., Market Information and Channel Price Structure. International Journal of Research in Marketing, (17). pp. 331 351, 2000. [12] Ju, J., Linn, S. C. & Zhu, Z., Middlemen and Oligopolistic Market Makers. Journal of Economics and Management Strategy, (19), 1. pp. 1 23, 2010. [13] Gadde, L.E. & Snehota, I., Rethinking the Role of Middlemen. Paper for IMP, BI, Oslo, 9-11 September, 2001. Online: http://www.impgroup.org/ uploads/papers/182.pdf. [14] Namudu, M.T. & Pickering, T.D., Rapid Survey Technique Using SocioEconomic Indicators to Assess the Suitability of Pacific Island Rural Communities for Kappaphycus Seaweed Farming Development. Journal of Applied Phycology, (18). pp. 241 249, 2006. [15] Crona, B., Nystrom, M., C, Folke, C. & Jiddawi, N., Middleman, a critical social-ecological link in coastal communities of Kenyan and Zanzibar. Marine Policy, (34). pp. 761 771, 2010. [16] Day, George S., Managing Market Relationships. Journal of the academy of marketing science, (28), 1. pp. 24-30, 2000. [17] Masters, A., Middlemen in Search Equilibrium. International Economic Review, (48), 1. pp. 343 362, 2007. [18] Roberts Jr, W. A. & Stekoll, M S., Commercial Potential of Seaweed from St Lawrence Island, Alaska: evaluation of market opportunity. Journal of Applied Phycology, (5). pp. 167 173, 1993. [19] Smith, A.H. & Renard, Y., Seaweed Cultivation as a Livelihood in Caribbean Coastal Communities. 2010. Online: http://www.canari.org/ seaweedcultivation.pdf.
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Economic valuation of sport fisheries in Los Cabos, Baja California Sur, Mexico
I. Gmez1, A. Ivanova1, G. Ponce2 & M. ngeles1
1
Academic Department of Economics, Autonomous University of Baja California Sur, Mexico 2 Fisheries Department, Interdisciplinary Center for Marine Science, Mexico
Abstract
Sport fishing is one of the main tourist attractions in Baja California Sur (BCS), with a multiplier effect with impacts on three sectors of its economy. There is, however, a growing confrontation between those interests that represent the sport fishing sector, and those involved in commercial fisheries, whose activities often include the capture of species reserved for the former, either by means of permits or accidentally. In addition, before the research which is reported in this paper, there was no methodologically sound estimate of the economic value of sport fisheries. This was estimated by the cost of travel method, which attempts to determine the number of journeys/visits to a given recreational site per period of time, usually a year. This involved the application of a survey (220 questionnaires, of which 133 were usable) in the area of Cabo del Este, BCS, in order to generate the data needed to estimate the relevant demand function (number of visits as a function of travel cost), its inverse, and average and total consumers surplus. Using information available at the Los Cabos municipality, which gives the figure of 40,000 sport fishing visitors per year, we estimate the economic value of this activity in that area at about US $72million. Keywords: economic value, travel cost method, consumer surplus, sport fishing, demand curve.
1 Introduction
Sport fisheries are amongst the main tourist attractions, and hence employment and foreign exchange sources, in the Gulf of California and Baja California Sur

(BCS), owing to the extraordinary richness and variety of species of interest in those waters. Tourist expenditures on this activity result in multiplier effects on three sectors of the BCS economy: tourism itself, fisheries, and manufacturing, SEPESCA [1]. CONAPESCA, the National Agriculture and Fisheries Commission, estimates that the value of the states sport fisheries from direct payment to boat operators and other expenses stood at US $79 million in 2006, CONAPESCA [2]. However, a 2007 report by the Billfish Foundation dealing with the employment and tax revenue effects of sports fishing in the Los Cabos area (BCSs main tourism destination), gave the figure of US $1,125 million as the estimated total impact of this activity. Clearly there is much uncertainty in these measurements and, in the latter case, a huge overstatement. Sport fisheries in Mexico are regulated by the Mexican Official Norm (NOM) 017-PESC-1994, DOF [3], which specifies the equipment that may be used, and the size and amount of the catch by species. The limit is ten specimens a day for each fisherman, and not more than five of any particular species. With marlin, swordfish, sailfish, and shark, the limit is one per day per fisherman, as each organism is taken to be equivalent to five of other species. In regard to mahimahi (dolphin fish), shad, and rooster fish, the limit is two, with a similar equivalence as in the previous case. Sport fishing may fit well with the concept of environmental sustainability, as its impact on fishing resources, when properly managed, can be smaller and less intense than that of other fisheries, owing to its selective nature (although it is also vulnerable to overfishing). According to CONAPESCA, the main source of tension in BCS is the exploitation by commercial fisheries of species deemed exclusive to sport activities. Such competition has led to conflict about what the proper resource management is to be - and for whose benefit. The sport fisheries sector, closely linked with tourism interests, has claimed that billfish captures by commercial fisheries lead to a reduction in the number of visitors (mostly foreigners) to the main fishing and tourist areas. As mentioned, they also claim that sport fisheries generate very large economic benefits, such as cannot be matched by commercial alternatives, if account is taken of visitor expenditures on lodging, food and drink, boat rental, and other services, CONAPESCA [4]. The tension between these two coastal activities in BCS has intensified since the Federal governments introduction of NOM 029, which was meant to regulate shark and ray fishing. Commercial fishermen are reported to be selling marlin, swordfish, and sailfish and registering their catches as shark, thus effectively legalizing them. Some studies show a 30 per cent fall in shark populations, but fishing volumes have remained high owing to the black market in bill species (Villavicencio [5]). The tourism sector is unhappy with the terms of established by NOM 029, since that norm allows commercial boats to fish for shark within the 50 nautical mile limit set for sports fisheries, thus allowing them to accidentally capture reserved species. Given the importance of sport fisheries for the BCS economy, and that of economic valuation for efficient resource allocation, the main objective of this paper is to estimate the economic value of those fisheries, so as to allow the
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correct measurement of the benefits associated with that activity. Travel cost is taken to be the relevant valuation method. Accordingly, the paper is divided as follows. After this introduction, in section 1 we summarise our valuation methodology, survey design and sample size. Results are given in section 2, which is followed by our conclusions.
2 Methodology
2.1 The travel cost method The estimation of travel costs by means of surveys is one of the most frequently used methods for estimating the economic value of recreational activities when well-defined markets do not exist, as is the case with sport fisheries (Huschmidt et al. [6]; Freeman [7]; Winpenny [8]). The travel cost method depends on the assumption that even when access to public recreation sites has zero cost, visitors pay an implicit price for the sites services. This implicit price includes payment for private goods, such as the cost of transport and travel time (i.e., its opportunity cost), and is considered to be analogous to an entry price. The diversity of visitor provenance is assumed to provide information sufficient to estimate the demand function for the site and its services, where the number of visits is associated with the cost of travel (Smith et al. [9]). The method is based on neo-classical welfare theory. Cost of travel methods attempt to estimate the number of visits to a given site during a specified time period or season. Surveys are used to gather data on travel costs and other relevant variables, which are then employed to predict the number of visits to the site. The relevant demand curve is estimated by an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression equation, with the number of visits per year as the dependent variable and travel cost as the independent variable, OECD [10]. This can yield individual (average) consumer surplus which, when multiplied by the number of visits per time period, gives total consumer surplus (defined as the benefits received and perceived by the buyers (Varian [11]). In our case, we obtain an estimate of the total recreational value of sport fishing in BCS (Christensson [12]) from the standpoint of the visitors. 2.2 Sample size determination A pilot survey involving 47 sport fishermen was conducted, which was a useful starting point for the main survey, as it allowed us to form a first impression about the characteristics of the general population. Additionally, the pilot survey was used to estimate the variance of the variables, and hence to estimate sample size at the 0.05 level of significance, which gave a 95 per cent confidence estimate that the mean value of those variables could be correctly calculated. The size of the sample required in order to obtain confidence intervals of 95 per cent is given as follows: age. 26 questionnaires; income, 55; visits, 15; and total expenditure, 21. Given these requirements, 55 questionnaires were applied, so as to ensure that an adequate confidence level was attained.

2.3 The Cabo del Este area Even though the papers objective is to estimate the value of sport fisheries in BCS as a whole, surveys were applied only in the Cabo del Este area, which was taken to represent the state. The rationale was that this area has not been much studied, even though it is of great (and growing) importance for that activity. A further reason behind the choice of the area to be studied was that other fishing spots lack a single meeting point (i.e., a wharf) whence fishermen gather before taking to sea (Ditton et al. [13]). An additional point should be noted: only user values are considered, so what this paper reports is the value of the fishery to sport fishermen only, given that they obtain the direct utility. Cabo del Este is located about 120 km. south of La Paz (the state capital). The area includes the communities of Punta Pescadero, Los Barriles, Buenavista, La Rivera, Cabo Pulmo and Los Frailes. Over the past three decades, the area has become a sport-fishermans paradise owing to the abundance of marlin, swordfish, sailfish, tuna, mahi-mahi, and snapper. The area is frequented by visitors coming from diverse points in the United States, which means that quite different travel costs are involved. 2.4 Survey design and implementation The questionnaire employed consists of 25 items, four of which are meant to ascertain purpose of visit, yearly frequency, and the importance of fishing in the decision to visit the area. There follow 14 questions that seek to investigate in greater depth the interviewees characteristics: sport-fishing experience, reasons for choosing a particular boat, species captured, and type of license obtained, among others. Finally, a seven-question section was included so as to capture the respondents personal and socioeconomic characteristics: nationality, annual income, age, and education level, as well as travel and hotel costs and total expenses. A face-to-face approach was employed, asking interviewees to fill out a questionnaire after each question was explained. In all, 220 questionnaires were given out; on average, about 80 per cent of questions were answered, with some differences on which had no reply. After a close examination of the questionnaires, 133 (which yielded a total of 390 visits) were found to be usable, and these were later employed in the estimation of the relevant demand equation. The survey was conducted in 2010 at four different dates: May, June, July and August.
3 Results
3.1 Estimation of the demand curve The results of the survey were used to estimate a well-behaved (i.e., downwardsloping) relationship between number of visits and travel cost. Market demand was obtained by aggregation of individual demands at given prices (travel costs),
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and results were in accordance with microeconomic theory, as visits fell as costs increased. It should be noted that travel costs refer not only to actual (direct) disbursements such as airplane fares, hotel, and food and beverages expenses, but also include opportunity cost, defined as that which the person chooses not to have when the decision is made to have something else. Opportunity cost is here measured as the amount of time spent in travelling to and from the fishing grounds plus actual fishing time, and the converting this into lost income by using an estimate of daily income derived from the survey. As Christensson [12], has remarked, this assumes that individuals substitute income for time. Although several methods are available for making the relevant transformation, we have used the definition of opportunity cost given by Seller et al. [14]: /2080 (1)
where OC is opportunity cost; Y, average annual income, W, a conversion factor that maps working time into leisure (generally 0.25. 0.33, or 0.50; we use the middle value); 2080, the number of hours theoretically worked in a year (i.e., 8 hours per week during 52 weeks); and Time, the number of working hours spent in the fishing area, weighted by the eight-hour working day. Thus opportunity cost is represented by a percentage of income (Freeman [7]). Price (cost of travel) and quantity (number of visits) are then plugged into an econometric model in order to derive the demand curve for sport fishing, with visits as the dependent and travel cost as the independent variables. A semilogarithmic equation is used, following Ziemer et al. [15], Adamowicz et al. [16], all cited in Chvez [17], as this is the preferred form in the literature on the travel cost method. In fact, once the dispersion of the data was examined, it was confirmed that the semi-log form of the regression equation (visits in linear form and travel cost in semi/log form) gave the best fit, showing the highest value for . Our OLS equation, estimated by using the E-Views econometric package, version 5.0, is the equation (2): 3.36 390.19, 0.8267 (2)
The model is globally significant, as the F-value (57.23) exceeds any value of F at any level of significance, with one degree of freedom in the numerator and 12 in the denominator. We can thus reject the null hypothesis that those parameters are equal to zero, either jointly or simultaneously. The value of implies that 82.87 per cent of the variation in the number of visits is associated with the cost of travel, as defined above. In the same vein, the value of R (-0.9092) signifies that there is a strong correlation between the dependent and the independent variables. Finally, the Durbin-Watson statistic (d) was used to test for first order serial autocorrelation (Gujarati [18]). As in our case the value of d was approximately equal to 2, we concluded that there was no

autocorrelation of that sort. As expected, a negative relationship was found between number of visits and travel cost. In the semi-log model, the slope coefficient ( ), is interpreted as follows (Gujarati [18]): the absolute change in Y ( ) equals the slope multiplied by the relative change in X. For example, if travel cost ( ) rises by 10 per cent, with equal to -43.46, the absolute change in visits is given by (0.10)(-43.36) = 4.34; that is, a 10 per cent increase in travel cost results in a fall of (about) 4 visits per year. Given a 95 per cent confidence interval and 13 degrees of freedom for , we may conclude that the probability that the true value of that coefficient is between 287 and 494 is equal to 0.95. Otherwise put, in the long run 95 per cent (the equations constant) will be found in the 287 494 interval of values of is not zero).By a (additionally, the given interval confirms that the value of similar procedure, , (the coefficient associated with the demand equations independent variable, has a 95 per cent probability of falling in the 31 to 56 interval (additionally, is non-zero). 3.2 Consumers surplus The estimation of consumers surplus allows that of the user value of sport fishing, since that value is determined by the utility of the goods or services in question, that is to say, their capacity to satisfy an individuals needs or desires (in our case, the desire to capture billfish in BCS). The calculation of consumers surplus necessitates knowledge of the inverse demand function, since by convention price variables are shown on the y axis, i.e., what is commonly graphed is not the demand function, but its inverse. From a mathematical standpoint, of course, this difference is not of great significance. Conventional economic analysis is simplified by assuming that prices are market-determined, that is, that they are set jointly by demand and supply, so that for each individual they are a given. Thus, from the demand curve estimated in the previous section we can derive the inverse demand, eqn. (3): 7.237.4
.
0.8267
(3)
From eqn. (4), it can be shown that the consumers surplus (CS) is given by: 7,237.4
.
3,155
(4)
where cost = , visits = , and the average number of visits of the 133 = 28, and their cost = US$ 3,155. Solving the equation, questionnaires we find that total consumers surplus for 133 visitors is US$68,625, so that individual consumer surplus is equal to US $ 517. Since the number of fishing trips to the Los Cabos municipality is reported to be about 40,000, and since our survey yielded an average of 3.5 fishermen per trip, we estimate the average yearly value of sport fisheries in Los Cabos at US $72,447,303. Further research is needed to relate these findings with the sustainability of the fishery.
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4 Conclusions
The state of Baja California Sur (BCS), Mexico, depends crucially on tourism for its economic development efforts, and the Los Cabos municipality is BCSs main tourist destination. Sport fishing is a key activity in the Los Cabos, but is beset by acute tensions with the commercial fisheries sector, which often impinges (legally or not) on what the former considers to be its exclusive rights. Despite its importance, until now there has been no methodologically sound investigation of the economic value of sports fisheries in the state. The research here reported seeks to remedy this situation. We use the travel cost valuation method of environmental economics, derived from neoclassical welfare theory. We conducted a survey in the Cabo del Este area of BCS, which elicited 133 usable responses. The data thus generated were used to estimate a demand equation (visits as a function of travel cost), its inverse, and average and total consumers surplus. This information allowed us to estimate the value of sport fishing in the municipality of Los Cabos at about $72 million. This finding is a step toward the rigorous evaluation of the sustainability of sport fishing in BCS.
References
[1] SEPESCA, Secretara de Pesca, Fomento y modernizacin de la pesca deportivo-recreativa. Secretara de Pesca, 63 p. 1991. [2] CONAPESCA, Comisin Nacional de Pesca (CONAPESCA). Secretara de Agricultura, Ganadera, Desarrollo Rural, Pesca y Alimentacin (SAGARPA), 2008. [3] DOF. Diario Oficial de la Federacin. Norma Oficial Mexicana NOM-017pesc-1994. Para regular las Actividades de Pesca Recreativa en la Aguas de Jurisdiccin Federal de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos. Vols. No. 15-19. Mxico, D.F. 1995. [4] CONAPESCA, Comisin Nacional de Pesca. Secretara de Agricultura, Ganadera, Desarrollo Rural, Pesca y Alimentacin (SAGARPA). Plan De Accin: Estrategia Integral Para El Desarrollo De La Pesca Deportiva. Unidad de Enlace para el Desarrollo de la Pesca Deportiva. 83 p. 2004 http://www.conapesca.sagarpa.gob.mx/ [5] Villavicencio Garayzar C., http://www.elsudcaliforniano.com.mx. (07 de Mayo de 2008). 2007. [6] Huschmidt, M.M, James D.J., Meister A.D., Bower B.T. and Dixon J.A., Environment, Natural Systems and Development. John Hopkins University Press, London, 327 pp., 1983. [7] Freeman, A.M., The Measurement of Environmental and Resource Values: Theory and Methods. Resources for the Future, Washington D.C. 503 pp., 1993. [8] Winpenny J.T., Values for the Environment: A Guide to Economic Appraisal. London HMSO, 277 p., 1991.

[9] Smith V.K., Desvousges W.H., and Fisher A., A comparison of direct and indirect methods for estimating environmental benefits, American Journal Agricultural Economics, 68 (2): 280-290. 1986. [10] OECD, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Handbook of Biodiversity Valuation. A Guide for Policy Makers. Paris, 2002. [11] Varian H., Microeconoma Intermedia. Un enfoque actual. Quinta edicin. Antoni Bosch Editor. Barcelona, Espaa. 726 p. 1999. [12] Christensson, A., An economic Valuation of the Coral Reefs at Phi-Phi Island: AT travel Cost Approach. Masters thesis, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, 55 pp. 2003. [13] Ditton R.B, Grimes S. R, and Finkelstein, L.D., A social and economic study of the recreational billfish fishery in the Southern Baja Region of Mexico. Report for the Billfish Foundation, Ft. Lauderdale Florida, 45 p. 1996. [14] Seller, C., Stoll J.R., and Chavas, J.P., Validation of empirical measures of welfare change: A comparison of nonmarket techniques. Land Economics, 61 (2): 156-175.1985. [15] Ziemer, R.F., W. N. Musser and Hill R.C. Recreation demand equations: functional form and consumer surplus. Amer. J. Agric. Econ. 62: 136141. 1980. [16] Adamowicz, W.L., Fletcher, J.J. and Graham-Tomasi, T.Functional form and statistical properties of welfare measures. American Journal Agricultural Economics 71 (2): 414-421. 1989. [17] Chvez Comparan J., Importancia econmica de los beneficios generados por la pesca deportiva en Manzanillo, Colima, Mxico. Doctoral dissertation, Universidad Autnoma de Baja California. Ensenada, B.C. (Mexico), 134 pp. 2001. [18] Gujarati, D., Econometra, McGraw-Hill Interamericana, Santa F de Bogot, Colombia. 2004.
Section 7 Social and political issues
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Sustainability in projects: an analysis of relevant sustainability aspects in the project management process based on the three pillars model
S. Kirchhof1 & R. Brandtweiner2
1 2
University of Applied Sciences BFI Vienna, Austria Vienna University of Economics and Business, Austria
Abstract
Project management and sustainability are two concepts which increase in popularity constantly. The concept of sustainability has to be integrated throughout a company and therefore has to be considered during the whole process of project management. In order to anchor the concept of sustainability in a project it is necessary to focus on ecological, social and economic aspects. The creation and implementation of such an integrated management approach will lead to the creation of additional value for companies. This paper discusses the potential of incorporating sustainability in project management. Keywords: project management, corporate social responsibility, sustainability concepts.
1 Introduction
The concept of sustainability and corresponding discussions has existed for a fairly long time. Greater interest in this topic has arisen in society through the higher attention paid to sustainability by the mass media. Global warming, natural disasters and constantly increasing poverty all across the world have led even in the well-developed and industrialised countries to thoughts about the cross-generational, long-term and responsible use of resources. In addition, the world depression induced by the disproportional allocation of financial resources highlights the urgency of incorporating the sustainability concept in all economic activities. Companies have to focus on sustainable management. Furthermore,

they have to ensure that their business practices generate not only company, but social value as well. The aim of this paper is to analyse how companies can ensure sustainability in their organisation and how the concept is included in the project management process. To evaluate and to complement the theoretical analysis, qualitative expert interviews were conducted with project managers from companies in the Austrian telecommunication and information technology industry. The following research question constitutes the basis of this paper: Which dimensions of sustainability can be identified in the project management process, especially in the planning phase of the project? Further following sub questions were derived: Does a clear reference to sustainability in the mission statement lead to the incorporation of sustainability in the project management process? Which specific concepts and methods are used for the integration of sustainability in project management? What role does the project manager play in this process? The empirical study focuses on the three pillars of sustainability: economy, environment and society. The factors of long-term orientation, and the usage of traditional management and project-management tools to ensure the incorporation of sustainability aspects in the project management process were also considered. The expert interviews were structured to collect data relating to the different project management phases of initiating, planning, executing, monitoring and controlling, and closing [1].
2 Theoretical foundation
2.1 Sustainability Economic activities are regarded as sustainable when they are conducted with a long-term focus, i.e. when they have positive influences on the company over a long period of time. Sustainability is defined as [] development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs [2]. The idea of sustainability goes back to the 17th century where it was used in forestry to ensure a replenished supply of wood. The basic idea of the concept was to deforest only that amount of wood which could grow back naturally. In the 20th century it was realised that environmental problems are always linked with the economy and with the society as well. Numerous international conferences have been discussing the sustainability approach for decades in order to establish global consensus about which procedures should be established to deal with the current problems caused by the over-exploitation of both environment and society. Although the discussion goes back over 40 years a general agreement and specific procedures have not yet been found. It is theorised that parties try to enforce their individual interests and focus primarily on their own objectives [3, 4].
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2.2 Projects and project management Many companies use projects to fulfil their business activities. A project can be defined as a temporary, complex, relatively new, resource intensive, interdisciplinary and risky undertaking. Project management is described as the management discipline of planning and controlling projects during their progress. Although projects are by definition of a temporary nature, and sustainability is always orientated to the long-term, a linkage between the two concepts exists: e.g. realised projects may have influences on a companys long term, i.e. strategic, goals [5]. 2.3 Concepts and tools To explain sustainability different concepts have been developed, the three pillar model is the most popular one. 2.3.1 Three pillars of sustainability A basic concept which builds the foundation of the discussion is the model of the three pillars of sustainability. In the literature we find single- and multi-pillar models. Single pillar models focus on the environmental aspects of sustainability. Multi-pillar models, like the three pillars of sustainability, focus on ecological, economical and social aspects. The three dimensions of the model should be considered equally. If one dimension is disregarded impacts for the other dimensions could occur. The three pillars model is used as the basis for our investigation. Through the integrated view of this model different aspects which influence or are influenced by the company are taken into account.
Figure 1:
The three pillars of sustainability [8].
2.3.2 Corporate social responsibility Corporate social responsibility (CSR) and sustainable management are two fairly similar concepts. While CSR was developed from a socially-focused perspective,

sustainability was developed from the ecological point of view [6]. Both theories try to incorporate the notations of sustainable thinking in managerial activities. According to the European Commission sustainable management is the broader one [7]. 2.3.3 Tools If a company decides to establish sustainability, it is essential to communicate the corresponding actions and make them transparent to the companys environment. Relevant interest groups have to be informed. Sustainability reports are one method used to communicate and measure sustainability. International guidelines have been issued in order to make their use comparable. An institution which provides such guidelines is the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI). More detailed information as to the implemented procedures could be provided directly to the interested stakeholders [3, 4]. Another tool to identify specific sustainability dimensions and develop appropriate strategies to achieve the corresponding targets is the sustainability balanced scorecard. The sustainability balanced scorecard is based on the traditional balanced scorecard and the integration of the sustainability dimension can be conducted in several ways. The concrete form of integrating sustainability in the balanced scorecard depends on the individual key aspects of a company [9]. Another method of measuring sustainability is sustainability ratings. In contrast to conventional ratings, which concentrate on financial key figures, the sustainability ratings also focus on social and ecological factors. Companies with extraordinarily good ratings points could be affiliated in sustainability stock indices [10]. In addition, companies could undergo sustainability audits. The audits offer the opportunity to identify both synergies and conflicting sustainability goals. The aim of the audit is to determine the actual progress of the companys efforts to become a sustainable company. Furthermore necessary changes and suitable measures are identified [3]. Through sustainability audits, companies have the possibility to acquire certificates which attest to implemented actions.
3 Sustainability and project management in companies

The basic step to integrate sustainability in the company is to embed the concept of sustainability in the companys strategy and its vision and mission statement. The reasons for companies to integrate the sustainability concept are diverse. A major reason is that organisations which show a long-term orientation in their managerial activities have higher chances of survival in periods of crisis [11]. If companies realise that sustainable management creates strategic market advantages, their business portfolio can be extended and innovations regarding the principles of sustainable management can be promoted [12]. Other advantages arising from sustainable strategies are the attraction of new costumers, increased profitability and therefore increased shareholder value [13].
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4 Empirical findings concerning the integration of sustainability in the project management process
The expert interviews undertaken have shown that the relevance of sustainability to project management is assessed as very important. The basis of sustainable management is the integration of the concept in the guiding principles and the strategy of the company. Companies define strategies and use projects to implement the evaluated strategies. Classical strategy definition and implementation with classical management tools like SWOT Analysis or Portfolio-Analysis can improve the process of strategy formulation and ensure the implementation of the sustainability aspect in the vision and mission statement of a company. Additionally, every employee is regarded as responsible for rooting the sustainability principles in the organisation. 4.1 Business as usual: integrating economic aspects Regularly, in the opening stages of a project, economic factors are primarily taken into account. Project planning is considered to be long-term oriented and the planning period normally exceeds the project end, with standardised tools and processes ensuring the accuracy of the planning. The interviews we have carried out with practitioners have shown clearly that an explicit integration of sustainability aspects in the project definition process is not happening, as the process of defining the project is characterised by an emphasis on economic issues. Social and ecological issues are neither in the focus of project managers nor are they addressed by the board of directors. Nevertheless the interviewees stated that incorporating sustainability in the definition phase should be very important. Despite these statements the interviews show that the planning of resources, especially bottleneck resources, happens beforehand and long-term impacts are taken into account. If a project appears to be negative, in terms of financial statements, it will be stopped or will be re-planned. 4.2 Integrating ecological aspects The interviews have shown that the integration of ecological aspects is not very common in the project management process. In contrast to the consideration of profit oriented aspects, any negative environmental impacts of a project would not normally be regarded. The interviewees stated that normally, environmental aspects are taken into account by the board of directors in a more general way, i.e. they try to ensure that certificates and awards are gained in order to ensure, from a PR point of view, an improvement in the reputation of the company. Furthermore the interviews have shown that environmental aspects get more attention in pragmatic and operative areas such as facility management, e.g. by measures that ensure the saving of electricity. If costs which could arise because of disregarding the environmental impacts of projects were then assessed by applying tools of risk management, the findings could be included in the projects budget. Nevertheless the interviewees

pointed out that, from a theoretical project management point of view, practically all environmental aspects could be easily integrated in project management. One way of doing this would be the observation of the innovation process and the theory-based investigation and assessment of the whole life-cycle of a specific product or service. 4.3 Integrating social aspects The active participation of employees was regarded as very important by the interviewees. Therefore they suggested that management concepts such as management by objectives should be used to increase the involvement of employees in sustainable project management. Furthermore it was suggested that the social environment of the project should be continuously and actively included in project management. Stakeholder analysis and consolidation meetings with different stakeholder groups, as well as regular reports, are important and powerful tools to communicate the companys commitment to sustainable management to different stakeholder groups. 4.4 Long-term orientation The aspect of long-term orientation is provided through management tools and methods which provide standards and give guidance to fulfil classical managerial requirements. Furthermore, the interviewed experts addressed the fact that normally projects are planned over the project end; i.e. the majority of projects are long-term oriented, at least in means of profitability and economic sustainability. 4.5 Tools and methods To integrate sustainability and ensure efficient project management, standardised project management tools, as for example defined by the European IPMA (International Project Management Association) or the US-American PMI (Project Management Institute), are used. The usage of specific project management methods is voluntary. Some companies adopt rules which make the usage of certain tools and/or standards (either IPMA or PMI) obligatory. The vast majority of the interviewees stated that the control of the usage of these standards has to be optimised. The interviewed experts identified risk management as an important approach for ensuring sustainability in project management. Employing the instruments of risk management makes sure that risks could be identified earlier and suitable solutions could be found more easily. This might lead to a long-term, efficient and problem-free execution of a project. Furthermore, strategic management and financial planning, quality management, knowledge management and product management were mentioned by the interviewees as useful approaches to ensure sustainability in project management.
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In the closing phase of projects, methods for the exchange of experiences are used to ensure knowledge transfer in order to ensure a long-term success of the project. In addition, systems like knowledge management databases are used, to conserve information and derive profits from already realised projects. Project managers have to ensure that the data collected is available for all project members and can be accessed easily. Knowledge management and the exchange of experiences are significant critical success factors which influence the longterm impact of projects and therefore the development of the company. The incorporation of Corporate Social Responsibility concepts could be found in varying forms in different companies. The interviewees stated that the incorporation of CSR concepts correlates positively to the size of the companies, i.e. the bigger the company, the more likely is the implementation of CSR concepts. Furthermore, the study shows that ecology certificates are also primarily of interest for larger companies. Participation in sustainability ratings or a quotation in a sustainability stock index are not yet established within Austrian telecommunication and information technology industries. Likewise the level of awareness of sustainability tools, such as the sustainability balanced scorecard, is not very high. However classical tools like the project scorecard or the traditional balanced scorecard are popular and are widely in use.
5 Summary and concluding remarks

The empirical findings revealed that the sustainability concept is more than a passing fad. Sustainability, long-term added value, and a balanced relationship to the natural and social environment of the company are critical success factors for a long-lasting and prospering business. Due to the fact that using projects for fulfilling organisational tasks is a wide spread management practice, the sustainability concept has to be integrated on the project management level as well. The interviews have shown that nowadays in project management, especially in the planning phase, the economic pillar of the sustainability concept is overemphasized compared to the two other sustainability dimensions. The project mangers revealed that social aspects are regarded as relatively important too, but those aspects have been clearly placed in second place behind the economic aspects, while environmental factors are seen as the least important. Projects are social systems and react to environmental influences. This means that a basic prerequisite for incorporating sustainability in the project management process is the inclusion of the concept in the companys strategy and culture. Concepts which have been established at a general company level influence all of the companys management processes. Therefore, the integration of the sustainability concept has to be supported and enforced by the whole organisation. During every days work, project managers have to ensure that each member of a project team is acting in accordance with the established sustainability principles as much as it is their obligation to ensure that the results of projects

create sustainable value. The inclusion of social aspects in the project management process could be realised by e.g. employing knowledge management tools which may also lead to higher and/or more active participation of employees, which regularly enhances a companys innovation capabilities. Sustainability reports were explicitly named by the interviewees as a suitable way to point out the degree of sustainability in a companys procedures and make it visible to the stakeholders of the company. In effect, the reports are seen as very useful for creating transparency. Additionally our empirical analysis has shown that well known instruments such as the sustainability balanced scorecard, sustainability ratings and audits are not often used, i.e. they have to be reintroduced more effectively. Principally these concepts are well known, but not used in business practice. Project managers themselves stated that companies have to be convinced to make more intensive use of these instruments in future. These project managers believe that the holistic concept of sustainability will become more and more important for all industries. Therefore its importance for project management in general will increase too.
References
[1] PMBOK Guide, A Guide to Project Management Body of Knowledge, Project Management Institute, Four Campus Boulevard, Newton Square, 2000 [2] United Nations, Our Common Future (1987), Chapter 2: Towards Sustainable Development, http://www.undocuments.net/ocf-02.htm#I, 2010 [3] Promberger K., Spiess H., Kssler W., Unternehmen und Nachhaltigkeit Eine managementorientierte Einfhrung in die Grundlagen nachhaltigen Wirtschaftens, Linde Verlag, 2006 [4] Brundtland Report, in: Lexikon der Nachhaltigkeit, http://www.nachhaltigkeit.info/artikel/brundtland_report_1987_728.htm , 2010 [5] Jankulik E., Kuhlang P., Piff R., Projektmanagement und Prozessmessung die Balanced Scorecard im projektorientierten Unternehmen, Publics Corporate Publishing Erlangen, 2005 [6] Meffert H., Mustermann M., Corporate Social Responsibility in Wissenschaft und Praxis, Meffert H., Backhaus K., Becker J. (Hrsg.) Wissenschaftliche Gesellschaft fr Marketing und Unternehmensfhrung e.V., Arbeitspapier Nr. 186, 2005 [7] European Commission, Nachhaltiges und verantwortungsbewusstes Unternehmertum Soziale Verantwortung der Unternehmen (CSR), http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/sustainablebusiness/corporate-socialresponsibility/index_de.htm, 2010 [8] Sustainability-Ed: What is sustainable development, http://www.sustainability-ed.org.uk/pages/what3-1.htm
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[9] Waniczek M., Werderits E., Sustainability Balanced Scorecard Nachhaltigkeit in der Praxis erfolgreich managen mit umfangreichem Fallbeispiel, Linde Verlag, 2006 [10] Sustainable Investment, Indizes, abrufbar unter URL: http://www.nachhaltiges-investment.org/Indizes.aspx, 2010 [11] Wilson M. in Pricewaterhouse Coopers, Communications Review Volume 12, No. 1, 2007 http://www.pwc.de/portal/pub/!ut/p/c4/ 04_SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8xBz9CP0os3gDA2NPz5DgAF9nA0dPN3M_F 0tnAwjQL8h2VAQAtmMS_w!!/?topNavNode=49c411a4006ba50c&siteA rea=49ceac14e70252ea&content=e5f936094441a7b [12] Strigl A., Resel K., Kanatschnik D., Warum sich Unternehmen mit Nachhaltigkeit beschftigen sollten?, 2003, http://oin.boku.ac.at/ oin/_artikel/nachhaltigkeit_in_unternehmen.pdf [13] The Economist Intelligence Unit, Doing Good Business and the sustainability challenge, The economist, http://www.niri.org/OtherContent/Doing-Good-Business-the-Sustainability-Challenge-EconomistIntelligence-Unit.aspx, 43:48, 2008
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Public involvement in sustainable development: a public participation process in the Sidi Gaber railway station development project, Alexandria, Egypt
S. S. A. Aly & M. S. E. Amer
Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport, Architectural Engineering and Environmental Design Department, Egypt
Abstract
Public Participation (PP) in sustainable development helps the decision makers to acquire information about the publics preferences. So it plays a vital role in the decisions about choice of projects and formulates its design policies. PP is designed to help assure that the peoples will is done; it gives the opportunity for people to be heard and to understand what will be done in a specific project. On a legality side, PP gives legitimacy for decisions, support for plans and builds trust in government. A vested interest in PP had grown in Egypt and in most other developed countries, the public became much more concerned about participation and involvement in governmental decision making processes than they had been before. For that, the confidence between the public and decision makers has increased. This paper aims to design the PP process for the Sidi Gaber railway station development project, Alexandria, Egypt. It will discuss the methods of PP practice and highlights the importance of the participation process in fulfilling peoples needs and requirements, it explains the benefits that will be gained in the future by enriching environmental democracy. The paper concludes that stakeholders do have influence over decisions and the government should have the ability to manage the conflicts, to deal with anger and aggressive behaviour and to gain the public trust instead of mistrust by ignoring PP. Sidi Gaber station has a special location, a unique architectural style and a historical value; so the research carried on a questionnaire to know the

public opinion about this project especially from the logic of heritage rehabilitation and maintenance, and from the environmental point of view. Keywords: public participation, public involvement, sustainable development.
1 Introduction
In the last few years, public participation (PP) has taken the center of concern by playing a vital role that makes citizens participate in managing and protecting environment (Beierle and Cayford [1]). PP is a social process, so a great effort should be done to guide citizens how to participate, another effort to highlight the importance of participation process and its aim to fulfil their requirements. Thus, the process needs a lot of time for implementation and cooperation of people with the decision makers. Although it may be a difficult process to be implemented, a lot of benefits will be gained in the future by enriching democracy when people see their communities as they want. PP will show stakeholders that they do have an influence over the decisions taken and how governments will use their abilities to manage the conflicts (Raimond [2]). The participation process can become a guidance tool for civilization and integral life in Egypt; it will consummate the success of any development project, and vice versa, that is the focal point in this research. The study will discuss the ignorance of PP in the Sidi Gaber railway station development project, although that station has a special location and historical value; and was rather making a questionnaire to know the public opinion about this project. Sidi Gaber railway station building has a unique architectural style; its building characterized by striping rows of yellow thermal bricks. Historically, the majority of Egyptian presidents had passed by it, so it has a grandiose history which is owned to all citizens (Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper [3]). Most of the stakeholders in this case will be public people such as occupants, train passengers, architects, and interested people. Those people may have anger reaction towards any conflicting decision with their personal desires and aspirations. Thus, the participation process should include various cultures and intents. This study will guide people how to participate in such a process, it will emphasise the social goals in a well functioning environmental management system. The considered aims are: (1) Encourage public to participate and guiding them to the way of participation; (2) Increasing the substantive quality of decisions; (3) Incorporating public values into decision-making; (4) Increasing the awareness of the governmental officials, businesses and NGOs regarding public participation in environmental decision-making; (5) Rebuilding trust in government agencies; (6) suggesting and implementing the public participation in Egypt. 1.1 The research methodology The research begins with outlining the process of PP, its theories and practices. Then discussing PP in the field of urban development; identifying the actions of
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intervention in a societal context relative to community needs and involvement. The importance of PP comes through the examples of public involvement in the project of Stuttgart Railway station, it intended to test the principles of participation through the management practice. Identifying various successful approaches will set the guidelines of applying such process nationally and offering environmental democracy in Egypt. 1.2 Purpose of public participation A number of purposes have been advanced for public participation in planning and policy decision making. One is simply for decision makers to acquire information about the publics preferences so they can participate in the decisions taken in projects, policies or plans. The main purpose of PP is to assure that the peoples will is done (Innes and Booher [4]). Another purpose is to improve the decisions taken by incorporating the knowledge of the public or members of the public into the calculus of the decision. Thus, public are more aware about the traffic jams or crime problems on a particular street, and the planners and decision makers can learn about this through public involvement. These purposes are increasingly important as government gets larger and more impersonal and more distant from its constituencies. PP is also about fairness and justice. There are systematic reasons why the least advantaged groups needs and preferences are likely to be unrecognized through the normal analytic procedures and information sources of bureaucrats, legislative officials and planners. These needs may only be appeared when an opening of PP process occurs, so PP gives the opportunity for people to be heard who were misunderstood in the early stages. An important purpose of PP is about getting legitimacy for public decisions and building support for plans among the public (Innes and Booher [4]).
2 Methods of public participation

At the end of this century two major changes has occurred in the legal orders of almost every country as well as in international law. First, human rights, and later, the environment were universally recognized as fundamental social values. Nowadays, there is a growing consensus that there is a new right which has a procedural character; it is PP which needs a legal framework. This category can contribute to the development not only as a practice but also as a theory of participation which help to adopt new innovative solutions in our communities (James and Blamey [5]). 2.1 Theoretical basis The theoretical basis is addressed to improve PP in environmental decisions and is organized by reliance on human action, so its support and development help to upgrade the urban environment; hence the upgrading of human behaviours would support PP in environmental context (fig. 2).

So, before people participate, the basic needs must be fulfilled to achieve self actualization in the psychological sense, which includes needs for understanding, aesthetic appreciation and purely spiritual needs (Osuji [6]). Human needs start from physiological needs then safety needs and rise to belonging, esteem, knowledge, and aesthetic needs. Finally, the human will have a sense of self actualization (Osuji [6]). 2.1.1 Behavioural upgrading A hierarchy of five levels of basic needs (Deficiency Needs) must be satisfied before an individual reaches self actualization. Beyond these needs, higher levels of needs exist (Growth Needs), which include needs for understanding, aesthetic appreciation and purely spiritual needs, fig.1. A persons level of gratification is represented by a horizontal line across all needs, and growth would be represented by that horizontal line moving upwards through all needs (Osuji [6]).
Figure 1: The hierarchy of needs. Functionally, the influence of citizens is absent if there are a deficiency of needs, it will be present if citizens get their necessary needs, from Osuji and after of the Maslovian diagram of Human Needs [6]. 2.1.2 Levels of participation Different levels of public participation allow different levels of public involvement in the decision-making process (Arnstein [7]). Generally, as the level of involvement increases the number of individuals involved decreases fig. 2. 2.1.3 Building trust in Government The main issue now is: how government will build trust through public participation? In Egypt, people lost trust in governmental decisions and policy
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Figure 2: The Ladder of Participation, from Arnstein [7]. makers. Sustainability demands an even increasing trust to balance the social life; accordingly PP practice helps in rebuilding the lost trust between citizens and the government. If trust is lost, a long process of confirmatory experience will be required to rebuild it another time (Raimond [2]). To formulate the participation program with high level of trust, the following aspects should be considered: (a) Illustrate the needs; it must be sufficiently flexible and have a broad base to accommodate the full range of public concerns. (b) Assessing the content of the debate, this content may go beyond the broad issues of risk and impact. (c) Designing the PP process. This should explicitly recognize the levels of distrust that exist. (d) Designing the strategies and techniques. A variety of strategies will be necessary to reach the full spectrum of social groups. 2.2 Dealing with public anger and aggressive behaviour Some developmental decisions that are taken by a group of policy makers and the governmental are confronted and are in conflict with some citizens, so such problem should be dealt with using the conflict theory: Sandmans Risk = Hazard + Outrage (Raimond [2]). To deal with this case, the groups should identify and explain general goals, have a good expectations and listening, help the groups to solve the fatal problems, and provide opportunity to follow up. There are some skills which are important to deal with anger, such as: assertiveness, listening, negotiation, productive criticism, praise, and confrontation (Raimond [2]).
3 Designing public participation processes

The guidance for the future is done by understanding the past, so designing the public participation process will be described into the following five steps, fig. 3. 3.1 Determine the need for public participation Three main items are determined for the PP processes: (1) Decision makers must have some flexibility and open mindedness regarding the nature of the
Figure 3:
The diagram depicts the steps of PP process.
process and its outcomes; they must recognize the legitimacy of PP process and gain public trust. (2) The arguing is a substantive rationale, which makes PP lead to objectively superior decisions; as public may bring valuable information, deeper solutions, or creative estimation in a given problem.(3) Normative rationales for PP that it is both the right of citizens and it is the way for democracy and a more healthy society (Beierle and Cayford [1]). 3.2 Identify the goals of the process The goals of PP process should be considered, the most important of this goals are the social goals, such as identifying the public value when the decision is making, increasing citizens awareness to get them the ability to participate, and solving the conflicts to find the trust between citizens and governments. The barriers should be considered that make this goals difficult to be achieved, such as neglecting the degree of pre-existing conflict, or the loss of trust in an earlier issue, these conditions should be addressed and emphasized in the process (Beierle and Cayford [1]). 3.3 Answer the designed questions Four design questions should be answered: (1) who should participate? The answer is; all citizens, especially the middle class who probably reflect the public values more accurately, and stakeholders who have a political influence to be that their input is heard and acted on. (2) What kind of engagement is appropriate? The answer is, the engagement between stakeholders and decision makers depends on participatory mechanism, shared information and deliberation methods. (3) How much influence should public have? The answer is, the level of public influence depends on the sequence and steps of PP process and given information needed to formulate the required recommendations. Planners must consider how much influences must be granted. (4) What role should government play? The answer is, the role of government is to make the balance act between responsiveness and control, as process becomes more intensive and participants take on greater responsibility in formulating recommendations (Beierle and Cayford [1]). 3.4 Select and modify the process The design questions can be selected according to the scope of inclusion, representation, kind of engagement, level of public influence, and role of the government, table1.
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Table 1:
The types of participation mechanism, the figure shows the modifying and selection of the PP process, from Beierle and Cayford [1]. Representation Kind of engagement Role of government Passive Varies Varies Varies Varies Active Level of public influence Deliberative Varies Varies Varies Moderate or high Low Scope of inclusion Narrow
Type of mechanism
Socioeconomic
Public comments Surveys Public meeting and hearing Advisory committees not seeking consensus Advisory committees seeking consensus Citizens juries Negotiations and mediations
Varies Varies Varies
Varies
3.5 Evaluate the process The evaluation helps planners to understand what the public and agencies accomplish and build as an information base to achieve PP with satisfactory results, fig. 4.
4 Public participation practice

The fact that people who have no technical experience cannot be able to participate in decision making, therefore, over the last years the efforts had been
Varies
Info. sharing
Inserts groups
Board
Figure 4: The diagram depicts the evaluation method of participation process, from Beierle and Cayford [1]. done to build up knowledge about the range of tools and methodologies, as well as expertise upon which these people can participate (EPA [8]}. 4.1 Guiding principles of successful public participation There are some guiding principles that should be respected before carrying out the PP process: (a) Early planning and publishing the details of the scheme which is requested to participate in. Then identify the sources of fund; (b) Fixing a place and a time to round up all participants, then assigning of the stakeholders and their legitimacy; (c) Choosing the appropriate techniques to be used for each stage of the process. (d) Allow sufficient time for stakeholders to assimilate and respond to information EPA [8]. Then ensure giving a feedback on all issues raised to people. (e) The technical complexity of some schemes may become an obstacle in the way of those voluntarily participating. To avoid that, the decision makers have to encourage dialogue, debate and collaboration, use effective communication media, and present simple and easily adapted proposals according to the progress of the continuous discussion (Miskowiak [9]). 4.2 Examples of successful public participation Process 4.2.1 Development of Stuttgart railway station, Germany Project Description: Stuttgart Railway station is a particular case; the city lies in a valley and has a geographic cul-de-sac block as an extension for the city centre. The station is a terminus block and difficult to be linked to city center, the city center was missing the connection to the high-speed rail network that is being developed throughout Europe. The station was designed to be a zero-energy station, fig. 5. The old station will be at the top of the new subterranean tracks and platforms; station hall is illuminated by natural light that will fall into the space
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Figure 5: The proposal conserves the heritage of old building of the station, the model of the project is put inside to offer the chance for all participants to involve, from Hadergasser et al. [10]. through large circular shapes. The new station will give Stuttgart a new centre, and integrate the historic fabric into the new design. The historic building and the new station link the old and new sections of the city (Hadergasser et al. [10]). Public Participation during the complete process: During the first preliminary studies of the project by the client and the planners, the public, the political committees and the institutional lobbies were incorporated into the planning and approval procedures for Stuttgart main station (Hadergasser et al. [10]). A public information centre at the main station has been opened over 10 years ago. The permanent exhibition extends over three levels, showing the newest plans and models forth building project. The approval procedure takes place in several stages. Institutional lobbies and political committees, additionally receive information on an ongoing basis throughout planning to enable their suggestions or doubts to flow directly into the planning process (Hadergasser et al. [10]). 4.2.2 The prevention of Itami airport and the construction scenario of a new airport in Kansai, Japan This example is relevant to caring about Public Anger and Aggressive Behaviour, in the mid of 1980s Osakas Itami Airport was insufficient for the needs of the Kansai region in Japan. When the authorities found a land site for a new airport, they learned from the last experience of Tokyo in building the Narita Airport. the narrative were that the protests of the farmers whom were forced to sale their land, they refused to move, the authorities did not care about the aggressive Behaviour, a substantial group of violent radical activists in Japan flock to a public protest, they coherent to prevent the construction of the Narita Airport, they bombed fire on the site equipment, there were several deaths in the Narita Airport protests and three thousand radical activists were arrested (Applet-magic [11]). When work started in Kansai airport, the authorities headed off a potential protest from Osaka Bay fishermen who would have their livelihood disturbed by the construction, payment was offered by the airport authorities and accepted by the fishermen, consequently the project had been constructed (Appletmagic [11]).
5 Implementation of public participation in Egypt

5.1 Current situation in Egypt In Egypt, PP is never been adopted in urban development projects, the only case where PP was processed in 1950s for national liberation (Halim [12]). The absence of PP is due to socioeconomic, cultural poverty and centralization of decision making. These barriers always strut the progress of PP, and to overcome these barriers democracy should be activated in the public life, citizens will be encouraged to participate in decision making and their awareness will be increased (Halim [12]). 5.2 Implementation of PP through a model: The development project of Sidi Gaber railway station, Alexandria, Egypt 5.2.1 Justification for selecting the case study Alexandria is the oldest city in Egypt and it is a great city in between the cities surrounding, the Mediterranean coast was the beginning of the old world and the origin of the present civilization, fig. 6.
Figure 6: The map of Egypt in figure (a), and map of Alexandria in figure (b), from World Atlas. Hence the study of its civilized formation and how it has grown, is considered the start point to know its present problems and how to think about their solutions, how to have the development without any destruction of the ancient and valuable buildings taking in to consideration the future requirements that influence the random development. Sidi Gaber railway station is one of oldest Egyptian stations; it was the first railway lines that constructed outside Europe. In 1850, Khedive Abass was signed with the British designer Robert Stifnson to construct railway line between Cairo and Alexandria that costs 65,000 for 209 kilometer in length [4]. Historically, Sidi Gaber is the station of memories, in the twentieth century it welcomed the return of leader Saad Zaghlol after his expatriation (fig. 7).
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Figure 7: Map in figure (a) depicts the location of Sidi Gaber railway station between Sidi Gaber district and Smouha district; photos in figure (b) show the station building. 5.2.2 The current project description The new project of Sidi Gaber station will consists of two floors to be constructed above the existing railway lines; it will be a commercial and recreational uses. The development project will not be concerned about the area problems, or to modify the urban fabric in order to avoid the traffic problems, and the conflicts between pedestrians and vehicles. 5.2.3 Identification of main issues Identifying issues of concern should be done in early consultation and survey procedures, Issues and aspects of interests are prioritized as follows: (1) Resolving traffic problems; (2) Improving the visual quality; (3) Creating safety walkable areas, transition movements, and urban spaces; (4) Improving the connection between Smoha district and Sidi Gaber district; (5) Linking Sidi Gaber coast to the station increase activities; (6) Improving infrastructure services; (7) Creating new traffic routes; (8) Increasing parking facilities; (9) Increasing the awareness of PP; (10) Future redevelopment study plan for the area for long terms. 5.2.4 Program design and strategies Identifying Stakeholders: Key stakeholder survey and analysis is to be carried out to identify various groups of stakeholders, as well as to assess their relativity and influence on the project; Governmental agencies: The Comprehensive Plan Administration, The ministry of transportation, The Regional Authority for Tourism Promotion, ecological ministries, Community Council, Local Administration of Chark Region, Administration of Urban Planning, Traffic, and Housing administrations; Directly affected groups: Architects, Travellers, Residents, and Shopkeepers; Indirectly affected groups: Shoppers, Pedestrians and Drivers; Private sector developers: Landlords, Shop owners and Investors.

5.2.5 Formulating the program An approach to the range of techniques that suit citizens and characteristics of district including interviews and workshops, the following phases will constitute the public participation program: (1) Structured interviews: Interviewing various community members to identify the roles and range of interests and issues that are crucial to the development of the station in their perception; (2) Strategic plan formation: Participants, in small groups, are given the list of identified goals from which they select four statements that seems important in developing the area; (3) The project scheme should be presented with worksheets about the model cycle phases to inquire citizen advisory opinion; (4) Particularly, in Sidi Gaber area, the nature of population and the level of their assimilation will accept modern techniques in participation processes such as media or web sites methods. They have enough sensibility, so the process will not have any conflicts, but the groups should have equanimity of mind and cool of reaction. 5.2.6 Creating dialogue To allow community members to visualize the impact of the designed proposal of the project, graphic materials are to be used as the basis for comparing proposed developments to the existing settings. Explicit criteria are presented to the public as a series of indicators, these indicators are organized in different categories and presented in a visual format and the public opinion on different intervention strategies will have its input into the project modification. Preferences and Outcomes: The aim is to develop a consistent set of criteria by assessing the preferences of participants. The relevant example of Stuttgart railway station, Germany can help to constitute the basis of appraisal criteria to be applied regionally in order to achieve such goal, the dialogue needs to be recorded under the following headings: (1) Visual representation of the station site; (2) Representation of its Heritage conservation status; (3) Representation of possible management or development alternatives; (4) Recording the public perception of aesthetic and symbolic values of the station can give at future management options; (5) Clear Public preferences for alternative management options for the site, as proposed by Alexandria City Planning. (6) A selection of efficient participation tools that have been practically experienced. (7) Collecting and building of a public preferences database as the baseline information.
6 The model
At the end of preliminary studies of project, the researcher hypothesized putting the model of the project inside the old station for showing it to all citizens; they should fill the response sheet with their opinion about this project by answering some questions that will ease the process for them. The response sheet will include the drawings of the project, fig. 8. The construction of the new building will in the form of a steel structure above the station platform, the trains will moving down,the project consists of three levels of commercial shops, cafeterias, and stations offices, fig. 9.
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Figure 8: Steel frames shown in figure (a), site of new building shown in figure (b), plan of new building above the railway lines shown in figure (c).
Figure 9: The station before the new project appears in figure (a), the station perspective after construction of the new building appears in figure (b), it consists of three levels of commercial uses. 6.1 The project evaluation according to the response of affected groups The questionnaire sample was fifty members of concerned people (40 travellers, and 10 architects); following questions were answered in the response sheets that were delivered with the work sheets of drawings, table 2 explains their response about the development project of Sidi Gaber. The final results of the questionnaire about Sidi Gaber project will be more clear in the following charts, this will be as a guide for the decision makers to know what the citizens need to improve in their life, and to get their rights in planning their communities, fig. 10. The decision makers should modify the proposal to meet the citizens needs and apply the environmental democracy in their decisions.

Table 2: The response of the affected group through the sample of participants. Question 1. Were you invited before to participate in the development project of Sidi Gaber Railway Station? 2. Do you agree that Sidi Gaber railway station and the context of adjacent area are in need of development? 3. In your opinion, are traffic problems the important issues that need addressing in this area? 4. What is your personal thought about the final proposal of Sidi Gaber, will it be suitable and harmonic with the old building character? 5. In your mind, do you expect that the project will find solutions for the present problems? Yes 0 35 40 6 8 Answers No Maybe 50 5 3 35 37 0 10 7 9 5
Yes 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Quest.1 Quest.2 0 0 5 10 50 35
No
Maybe
40
35
37
3 7 Quest.3
Quest.4
Quest.5
Figure 10: Final results of inserts groups reflecting their decision about the Sidi Gaber development project.
7 Conclusion
PP is most efficient in empowering local communities to promote the liveability of their environment, maintain their heritage, and at the same time promoting the quality of life, economic development, and social equity. PP should be applied in early stage, in all levels by using diverse methods. The implementation of the PP
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process in Egypt still needs to change the policy from centralization to democracy, not only in holding the decision, but also in the different range of social and political life. Decision makers should be from the specialists whom are able to decide the right decision; they should give the chance to people to participate. A review of participation methods and techniques showed that awareness and commitment of both the stakeholders and the official bodies is the key for the success of any participatory action. It helps to build up trust and respect to build up in the relationship between official and non-official agencies, it also provide access to local groups in relative decision making. The present legislation and bureaucracy, as well as the cultural, economical and political settings restricts introducing public participation on the national level, which is likely to leave the stakeholders with feelings of frustration and alienation.
8 Recommendations
For advancing and improving PP in sustainable development projects the last experiences should be summarized and collected. General principles are formulated and followed by some recommendations to define few basic tasks for participants to participate, these recommendations are: Politicians should: (1) Encourage the creation of civic and institutional cultures that recognize public involvement as a fundamental and main component of any democratic system; (2) Incorporate effective public involvement laws, rules and practices at every level of decision making; (3) Create a supportive legal and regulatory framework that will guarantee the process of shaping the decisions that affect their lives; (4) Assume an obligation to communicate with the public on what was decided and why one course of action was preferred over alternatives. Local government officials should: (1) Develop and implement strategies to reinforce the democratic principles of individual rights and responsibilities for all stakeholders of society; (2) Adopt requirements that project budgets should include resources for information and participation; (3) Adopt and implement communication strategies based on public needs rather than on institutional professional preferences. NGOs should: Work to develop cross sectored coalitions of NGOs and interest groups to promote political, institutional and general societal benefits which move to better informed and more actively engaged public. National governments should: Make PP a pre-requisite for funding local initiatives; Incorporate public participation requirements into the national legal system. The private sector should: Begin discussions with the government regarding expectations for corporate responsibility with respect to better public information and greater public involvement.
References
[1] Beierle. T. B. & Cayford. Democracy in Practice, Resources for the future, RFF PRESS, 2002 [2] Raimond R. R., Trust and Conflict in Public Participation, Division of Hazardous Materials and Waste Management. Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, Jan. 2001 [3] Asharq Al-Awsat, Newspaper No 11008 January 2009. Sidi Gaber the Station of Memories [Web Page]. Accessed 2010 Apr 25. Available at: http://www.aawsat.com/details.asp?section=54&article=503172&issueno= 11008 [4] Innes. J. E. & Booher. D. E., Public Participation in Planning, New Strategies for the 21st Century. Prepared to Annual Conference of the Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning, University of California at Berkeley, Nov. 2000 [5] Rosemary F James & Russell K Blamey. Manual on Public Participation in Environmental Decision-making, Rhetoric to Reality, Brisbane, Australia: International Symposium on Society and Resource Management, Jul.1999 [6] Osuji S. N., Maslovian Theory of Human Needs, Implications for Adult Education Curriculum in Nigeria. Essays in Education, Obafemi Awolowo University, 2007 [7] Arnstein S. R., A ladder of citizen participation, Journal of the Royal Town Planning Institute, Apr.1971 [8] EPA, Public Participation and Accountability Workgroup of the National Environmental Justice Advisory Council A Federal Advisory Committee to the U.S., The Model Plan for Public Participation, Office of Environmental Justice. USA, Feb.2000 [9] Miskowiak D., Crafting an Effective Plan for Public Participation, Center for Land Use Education. USA; Nov.2004 [10] Hadergasser H., Penn S. & Alexander May, The Stuttgart 21 Synergy Concept. LACER No. 2, 1997 [11] Applet-magic.com. The Construction of Kansai Airport, [Web Page] Accessed 2008 May. Available at: http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/ kansaiairport.htm [12] Halim A. A., Supporting Public Participation in Egypt. Al Ahram Regional Press Institute; 2005 Feb 22
553
Asset management of public facilities in an era of climate change: application of the dynamic computable general equilibrium model
Y. Kunimitsu
Department of Rural Planning, National Institute for Rural Engineering, NARO, Japan
Abstract
Agricultural production depends heavily on climate conditions; therefore, climatic uncertainty caused by global warming represents a significant threat not only to agriculture but also to entire economies. Furthermore, the drastic budget cuts after 2001 in Japan have reduced public capital stock and have placed the production capacities of various industries in jeopardy. This highlights the need for asset management to prolong the structural integrity of facilities. The present study uses the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate asset management measures (namely, those focusing on reinforcing old facilities) in the context of climatic uncertainty. Simulation results showed that the uncertainty of production induced by climate change is amplified through the market mechanism. The variation in the total production was much wider than the variation in agricultural production originally affected by the climate change. The public capital stock maintained by the asset management measures can ease such uncertainty. Therefore, asset management policy, which makes the deficit minimal leeway for increasing public investment, is critical in Japan. The dynamic CGE model can also measure such long-term comprehensive effects and is useful for policy analysis. Keywords: computable general equilibrium model, recursive dynamic model, asset management measures, public investment, public capital stocks, Hicksian equivalent variation.
1 Introduction
The fourth report of the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) cautioned about the seriousness of precipitation and temperature variation due to global warming. Global warming has the potential to devastate agriculture, for which climactic regularity has obvious importance, and could also adversely affect other sectors. Such possibility raises an urgent need to consider the economic and industrial impact of climate change. Production levels are determined by the public capital stocks, such as irrigation canals, roads, and flood control banks, as well as input factors, such as labor, private capital stocks, and land. Asset management measures can counter the unpredictability caused by global warming. One method is the fortification or renovation of existing structures, which prolongs their lifecycle and is more cost effective than constructing new facilities. Previous studies estimated the aggregate production function to show the direct effect of the public facilities (Nakashima [6], Yokoyama and Kataoka [12]). They found that the production elasticity of public capital stocks was about 10% and that public investment stimulates the productivity of capital-intensive technology (i.e., labor-saving technology). However, the production function approach sheds light on the direct effects and cannot show the benefit of consumer side as a ripple effect. The computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to analyze benefit transfer from producers to consumers on the basis of market price, supply, and demand. A number of researchers have employed the static CGE model. Saito [9] analyzed the effects of a farmland consolidation project, another type of agricultural public investment. Kunimitsu [5] measured the economic effects of irrigation and drainage facilities in Japanese agriculture. Conversely, Son et al. [11], Shibusawa et al. [10], and Ban [1] developed the dynamic CGE model to analyze transportation policies, environmental policies, and regional effects of policy change, respectively. The application of the dynamic CGE model is ideally suited for evaluating public facilities. For this study, we use the recursive dynamic CGE model to show the comprehensive effects in economies. Three types of scenarios were considered to simulate climatic uncertainty and effects of the change in public capital stocks.
2 Methodology
2.1 Structure of the recursive-dynamic CGE model The model used is the recursive dynamic version of the CGE model. The structure of our model is based on Ban [1], which uses GAMS (GAMS Development Corporation) with MPSGE (modeling tool using the mixed complementary problem) developed by Rutherford [7]. The equations of the model are as follows.
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Zero-profit condition:
f i c ( w, r , kg , tax, weather ) pd i
Yi 0 Ai 0
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
f i A ( pm, pd ) pai
pfx f T ( pm) M i 0 f T ( pe) pfx Ei 0 pk f u ( pa) I 0 pc f u ( pa) C 0 pcg f u ( pa ) Cg 0 pig f u ( pa ) Ig 0

Market clearance condition:
Yi fi R ( pd , pe) Ai f i A ( pm, pd )
pd i 0
(9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19)
Ai G C I
Yi f i R ( pd , pe) Ei
pai 0 pmi 0 pei 0

pfx
M i Ai f i A ( pm, pd )
X i M i Bdef
I f u ( pk , M i )
pk 0
K Yi
f c ( w, r , kg , tax) r
r0
L Yi
f c ( w, r , kg , tax) w
w0 pc 0
C f u ( pc, M i )
Income restriction:
M r K w L pf F G pfx Bdef tax pcg Cg pig Ig
Here, i represents the classification of the industrial sector, and kg and tax are the public capital stocks relating to production and taxation. Y, A, M, E, I, C, Cg, and Ig are domestic production, Armingtons composite good, imports, exports, investment, household consumption, government consumption, and public investment, respectively; pd, pa, pm, pe, pfx, rk, w, and pc are the price indexes

corresponding respectively to domestic production, Armingtons composite good, imports, exports, foreign currency, investment goods, rental cost of capital, wages, and consumption goods; M, G, K, and L are household income, government revenue, initial capital stock, and initial labour amount; and weather is variation of total factor productivity caused by the weather condition. Also, f() indicates a function, and superscripts of each function, that is, c, a, r, and u show cost function, the Armington function, profit function, and utility function, respectively. The weather condition, weather, applies only to agriculture and is measured by the residues of estimated TFP function, ie. ln(TFP ) 0
1 ln( Scale) 2 ln(kg R & D) . Here, TFP is the total factor productivity, Scale is the average management area of farmers and kg is the public capital stocks and R&D is the knowledge capital stocks accumulated by research. The kg in Eq. (1) is assumed to increase the TFP of the value-added sector with a production elasticity of 0.1. This means that if kg increases by 1%, the unit cost would decrease by 0.1%. In the equation, the cost function is multiplied by
(kg / kg _ ref ) 0.1 , where kg_ref is the reference value of public capital stocks
and kg is the simulated public capital stock. The value of production elasticity is derived from Yokoyama and Kataoka [12]. The functions used are all constant elasticity of substitution (CES) forms, including the Cobb-Douglas function and the Leontief function. Figure 1 shows the structure of cost function representing production structure (Eqs. (1)(4)). Figure 2 shows the demand structure representing utility function (Eq. (6)). Figure 3 shows the government consumption and government investment (Eqs. (7) and (8)). To form the recursive dynamic path, the capital stock equation is defined as follows. Private capital stock: K (t ) (1 ) K (t 1) I (t ) (20)
Public capital stock:
kg j (t ) (1 g )kg j (t 1) IG j (t )
(21)
Here, and g represent the depreciation rate, set as 0.04 and 0.025. The elasticity values of substitution(s) in the production, consumption, import, and export functions are set at the same values enumerated in Ban [1], which were based on the GTAP database. The elasticity of substitution of farmland to other input factors in agriculture is assumed to be 0.1. Since the production per area in Japanese agriculture has been stable for many years even as total farmland area diminishes, we concluded that farmland is a semi-fixed input for agricultural production and cannot be substituted by other factors.
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Domestic Prod. s=2 Total Prod. s=0 Public Capital weather Value added s=0.1 s=2
Expot
Inter Mid.
Domest. Goods s=1 Capital Labor Farmland
Imported goods
Figure 1:
Outline of production in the CGE model.

Household Cons. s=0.5 Composit Goods 1 Composit goods N s=2 Goods 1 Imported Goods N Domest. P. Goods N Imported
s=2 Goods 1 Domest. P.
Figure 2:
Outline of household consumption in the CGE model.

Gov. Spendings s=0 Gov. consumption s=0 Composit Composit goods N Goods 1 Composit Goods 1 s=2 Goods 1 Goods N Imported Domest. P. Goods N Imported Goods 1 Domest. P. s=2 Goods 1 Imported Gov. Invest.
s=2 Goods 1 Domest. P.
Figure 3:
Outline of government behaviour in the CGE model.

2.2 Data To calibrate the parameters of the model, the social accounting matrix (SAM) was estimated on the basis of the 2005 Input-Output Table of Japan, using a method derived from Hosoe et al. [3]. The sectors used here are paddy; husbandry, forestry, and fishery; the food processing industry; mining; manufacturing; and the service sector. The factor input value of farmland, which was not shown in the Japanese I/O Table, was taken from the GTAP 7 database. Then, it was subtracted from the operating surplus. The factor input value of capital was calculated by adding the operating surplus and the depreciation value of capital. 2.3 Simulation In order to quantify the effects of policy change, the following three scenarios were considered with respect to asset management policy. Base Line (BL) Case: Status quo, which is shown by the present SAM data without climatic uncertainty. Climatics Uncertainty (CU) Case: Status quo with climatic uncertainty. In this case, climatic uncertainty represented by weather is introduced in the cost function. Asset Management and Climatic Uncertainty (AM + CU) Case: Asset management measures were conducted under climatic uncertainty. The depreciation rate of public capital is decreased by 17% owing to the asset management measures. This rate was measured by Kunimitsu [4] in the field survey data. In each case, the simulation period was 25 years from 2005 to 2030. The growth rate of exogenous variables, such as population and labour force, was assumed to be 0% per year and interest rate was set as 3.5% after considering the present situation of Japan. For evaluation of policy change in view of the social welfare level, the Hicksian Equivalent Variation (HEV) was calculated from the simulation results as follows:
HEV ep( pcp0 ,UU1 ) ep( pcp0 ,UU 0 )
(22)
Here, ep() shows the expenditure function derived from the maximization of utility level (UU). pcp is the price of consumption goods. The suffixes 0 and 1 show the reference case and comparing case.
3 Results
3.1 Effects of climatic uncertainty Figure 4 shows the production change caused by the climatic uncertainty. The level of agricultural production was calculated by adding paddy domestic production and domestic production of other agriculture. The total production was the sum of domestic production, including agricultural production. The
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smooth lines (Agri_BL case and Total_BL case) are the simulation results without considering the effects of climatic change represented by weather. On the other hand, the zigzag lines with annual variation (Agri_CU case and Total_CU case) correspond to the simulation results relating to climatic uncertainty. The lines marked Total are measured by the left-side axis and the lines labelled Agri are measured by the right-side axis. Both axes are drawn according to the same scale, though the levels are different.
TotalProd. (billion) 910000 908000 906000 904000 902000 900000 898000 896000 Agri.Prod. (billion) 24,000 22,000 Total(BL_Case) 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 Total(CU_Case) Agri(BL_Case) (right) Agri(CU_case) (right)
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
year
Figure 4:
Production change caused by climatic uncertainty.
The annual variation in the total production (Total_CU subtracted by Total_BL) was larger than that of agricultural production (Agri_CU subtracted by Agri_BL). To compare the probability of variation between the two, we calculated the percentile values on the basis of annual differences. The width between the 90% percentile value and 10% percentile value was 1065 (=482 ( 583)) for agriculture and 1686 (=786 (896)) for total. The agricultural sector was the sole factor contributing to variation in total production. Hence, the difference in variations shows that the market mechanism amplifies the production uncertainty of the agricultural sector, which faces climatic change. 3.2 Contribution of the asset management measures Figure 5 shows chronological trend of Hicksian EV values. As shown by the difference between the zigzag line in the CU case and the smooth line in the BL case, EV was vibrated by the climatic uncertainty. Although the line in the CU + AM case, which introduced the asset management measures, was not smooth, this line was located at a higher level than other lines. Even during inauspicious climate conditions (i.e., in 2020, the level of EV with the asset management measures was higher than the BL case. Hence, the asset management measures can buffer against risk brought on by climatic uncertainty by improving total factor productivity in each industry.
2029

(billion) 125,000 124,500 124,000 BL_Case 123,500 123,000 122,500 122,000 CU_case CU+AM_Case
year
Figure 5:
HEV with and without the climatic uncertainty.
4 Discussion
This study evaluated changes in production caused by climatic uncertainty and the effects of asset management measures, namely, reinforcing pre-existing facilities. The recursive dynamic CGE model was utilized to show their comprehensive effects represented by the changes in the price and quantity at economic equilibrium. Three types of scenarios were analyzed to simulate climatic uncertainty and the effects of the change in public capital stocks. Simulation results showed that production uncertainty due to climate change is amplified through the market mechanism. Total production exhibited a much wider degree of variation than that of the agricultural production that was originally affected by the climate change. The public capital stock maintained by the asset management measures help compensate for such uncertainty. Asset management policy is critical in Japan, where increasing public investment is unlikely given the countrys immense financial deficit. Efficient measures in both economics and environmental policy are necessary to maintain sustainable economic development. The results of this study make clear that asset management measures that target public facilities can contribute to two distinct goals. Policymakers should more strongly advocate asset management measures instead of more costly construction projects. The macroeconomic view seems to discourage funding asset management measures by taxing the population, as suggested by the dynamic CGE model. The CGE approach is especially relevant as an analytical tool, considering the limitation of natural resources with which humanity must contend. However, several issues need to be addressed. First, our CGE model is designed specifically for Japan and does not account for variations between different locations, so multi-regional analysis may not be viable. Second, the environmental sustainability may be measured by the CGE framework by
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integrating environmental aspects with our model. Third, our model would necessitate further refinement of its financial components in order to accommodate the effects of global capital drift that occur in the real world.
Acknowledgement
This study is supported by the research project "The development of the relaxation and adaptation technology to cope with global warming in agriculture, forestry and fishery," funded by the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery. The authors sincerely express their gratitude for this support.
References
[1] Ban, K. (2007) Multi-regional Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model of Japanese Economies: Forward Looking Multi-regional Analysis, RIETI Discussion Paper Series, 07-J-043. [2] Bhringer, C., Rutherford, F.T. and Wiegard, W. Computable General Equilibrium Analysis: Opening a Black Box ZEW Discussion Paper No. 03-56, 2003. [3] Hosoe, N. (1999) Opening up the Black Box: Scrutimization of the Internal Structure of Computable General Equilibrium Models, A Ph. D. dissertation, Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University. [4] Kunimitsu, Y. (2009a) Comprehensive Evaluation of Stock Management Activities for Irrigation and Drainage Facilities: Application of CostBenefit Analysis in Watarase District, J of the Japanese Society of Irrigation, Drainage and Rural Engineering, 77(4)269-273. [5] ------ (2009b) Macro Economic Effects on Preservation of Irrigation and Drainage Facilities: Application of Computable General Equilibrium Model, Journal of Rural Economics, Special Issue 2009, 59-66 [6] Nakashima, Y. (1989) The structure of rice production and land consolidation capital, Journal of Rural Economics, 61(1), 19-28. [7] Rutherford, F.T. Mixed Complementarity Programming with GAMS Lecture Notes for Econ 6433 Spring Semester 2002, 1999. [8] Saito, K. (1996) Minimum Access of Rice Import, Journal of Rural Economics, 68(1), 9-19. [9] Saito, K. (2002) Public Investment and the Economy-Wide Effects: An Evaluation of Agricultural Land Consolidation in Japan, Proceedings on International Conference of Policy Modeling, 2002. [10] Shibusawa, H., Higano, Y., and Miyata, Y., (2007) A Dynamic MultiRegional CGE Model with Transportation Networks: Equilibrium and Optimality, Studies in Regional Science, 37(2), 375-388. [11] Son, R., Muto, S., Tokunaga, S. and Okiyama, M. (2006) Quantitative analysis on environmental and energy policy in Chinese automobile industries: Evaluation by the Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) model, Studies in Regional Science, 36(1), 113-131.

[12] Yokoyama, S., and Kataoka, T. (2006) Macro economic analysis on public investment in agriculture, Report of follow-up research on effects of agricultural and rural development project, Japanese Institute of Irrigation and Drainage, 99-132.
563
Shared responsibility for post-Kyoto

A. Hoeltl1 & R. Brandtweiner2
1
Department for Management and Economics, Danube University Krems, Austria 2 Department of Information Systems & Operations, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Austria
Abstract
The approach of the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is currently production-based only. This means that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are calculated and assigned on the basis of production. Exports and imports as well as international transportation and the potential for carbon leakage are disregarded in the current Kyoto mechanism. The mechanism is considered unfair by an increasing number of Parties of the UNFCCC. Consumption-based accounting (CBA) can possibly be an approach for rebuilding the Kyoto Protocol into a fairer one, accepted by developed as well as by developing countries. CBA moves the responsibility from producers to consumers. The study at hand is aimed at making a contribution to the question of a fair and efficient combination of the two approaches. It develops an indicator that shares the responsibility for emissions embodied in traded goods among producers and consumers. Keywords: climate policy, post-Kyoto, shared responsibility, production-based accounting, consumption-based accounting, international trade, international transportation.
1 Introduction
The Parties of the UNFCCC (including US, China and further emerging and developing nations) agreed on holding the increase in global average temperature below 2C above pre-industrial levels. For that a reduction of 80% of global GHG emissions is needed by 2050. Yet the measures and burden-sharing for reaching this goal remain unclear.

Developing countries have no quantified emission targets during the first Kyoto period (20082012), regardless of the fact of being involved in the Kyoto mechanism by the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). This mechanism aims to stimulate sustainable development and emission reductions. Furthermore technology transfer to developing countries should be a positive spin-off effect. The experience with CDM projects as well as the post-Kyoto negotiations show that developing countries have to become more involved in order to meet the 2C goal. While developed countries are afraid of competitive disadvantages, developing countries refer to the historical responsibility of the developed countries for global warming. They insist on equality regarding the use of our atmosphere. The study at hand discusses CBA as an alternative or extension to the production-based accounting (PBA) approach of the Kyoto Protocol. Advantages of CBA are, e.g. encouraging environmental comparative advantage, addressing carbon leakage or reducing the importance of emission commitments for developing countries.
2 Consumption-based accounting
A post-Kyoto mechanism should be a global agreement with legally binding emission caps to the majority of countries. The current Kyoto Protocol commits the majority of the developed countries as well as countries with economies in transition (Annex I countries). The UNFCCC approach for the Kyoto Protocol is production-based only, which means that GHG emissions are calculated and assigned on the basis of production. Exports and imports as well as international transportation and the potential for carbon leakage are disregarded in the Kyoto mechanism. For these and further reasons, this mechanism is regarded neither appropriate and nor enforceable for post-Kyoto. Under the PBA approach, countries with a large share of exports are put to a disadvantage. According to the PBA approach China, for example, would need emission allowances for 5.5 GtCO2 (level 2005), and 4.4 GtCO2 under the CBA approach (Lin and Sun [1]). Bruckner et al. [2] find that internationally traded goods comprised 27% of the global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2005. The OECD countries consume almost 30% more CO2 than they produce, whereas the G77 countries consume 23% less CO2 emissions than they emit by national production. The largest net importers in 2005 were the United States with 1,255 Mt CO2, Japan with 380 Mt, France 175 Mt, Germany 257 Mt, and the UK with 232 Mt CO2. The largest net exporters were China, Russia and India with 990 Mt, 330 Mt and 136 Mt CO2 respectively. The production-based emissions per capita in 2005 were 10.6 t for the OECD countries and 2.7 t for the G77 countries; the consumption-based emissions per capita 13.7 t and 2.1 t respectively. Based on this aggregated level the CBA would mean a shift of the responsibility of CO2 emissions to the OECD countries. Especially net exporters of CO2 emissions would perceive a mechanism on the basis of CBA as a fair alternative.
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Accordingly, CBA could be an adequate approach for rebuilding the Kyoto framework into a fair, more balanced one that is accepted by both developed as well as developing countries. CBA moves the responsibility from producers to consumers. The GHG emissions of the entire life-cycle of a product are allocated to the final consumer. The results of the recent UN climate change conferences as well as the scientific literature (e.g. Bastianoni et al. [3], Davis and Caldeira [4], Peters [5]) point out that a post-Kyoto mechanism has to introduce the CBA approach. It can on the one hand reflect the UNFCCC principle of common but differentiated responsibility and on the other hand encourage participation. Advantages of the CBA approach are to encourage environmental comparative advantage, to address carbon leakage or reduce the importance of emission commitments for exporting developing countries. This raises the probability of developing countries participating in a global agreement. It is also advantageous that CBA includes transportation emissions. Beyond that, the consumers have the possibility to be aware of the GHG emissions of their consumer behavior. The incentive for consumers to demand low-carbon products will increase. Furthermore a more differentiated responsibility between countries is shown, and collaborations regarding technology transfers between importing and exporting countries are stimulated. As a consequence the Kyoto mechanism CDM would become more attractive and effective. 2.1 Environmental comparative advantage From the global point of view the production for a specific good should be situated in the region where it generates the fewest CO2 emissions. Ecologically speaking it makes, for example, more sense to produce energy intensive goods in countries which use mainly renewable resources (Peters and Hertwich [6]). A mechanism including CBA can make the most of this environmental comparative advantage. Currently, only CDM makes it attractive for Annex I countries to invest in energy saving production in Non-Annex I countries, because they can gain Certified Emissions Reductions (CER). CBA will encourage emission abatement in foreign countries considerably. 2.2 Carbon leakage Under the Kyoto Protocol countries with binding reduction targets have a huge incentive to switch energy intensive production to other countries on the basis of PBA. This particularly applies to countries with no binding emission caps. This effect is called carbon leakage. The country importing and consuming these products is not responsible for the emissions. Carbon leakage is a huge problem of PBA. It can be reduced significantly by implementing CBA. There is merely a small database for carbon leakage. Peters and Hertwich [7] estimate the degree of carbon leakage from the Kyoto Protocol as 19% of the domestic CO2 emissions of the Annex I countries. Carbon leakage was not a subject if all countries of the world are participating in a post-Kyoto mechanism with binding emission caps. However, introducing a CBA scheme also enables the reduction of carbon leakage. Developed countries

would take a greater share of CO2 emissions under a CBA post-Kyoto mechanism. Emission commitments for developing countries would become less important. Thereby the willingness for participation in such a mechanism for these countries would increase. 2.3 International trade According to Peters and Hertwich [7], in 2001 26% of global energy related CO2 emissions resulted from trade. For different countries the bandwidth ranges from 9% to 69% of domestic CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions of imported products range from 6% up to 200% of domestic CO2 emissions. CBA encourages emission abatement in foreign countries due to a reallocation of imports (Peters and Hertwich [6]). CBA will provide incentives for exporting countries to use low-carbon technologies because of the interest of importing countries in low-carbon products; even in the case the exporting country, as a developing country, would have no binding emission targets. Under the current PBA there is just a marginal incentive for low-carbon technologies for exporting countries without emission targets. Additionally, CBA creates stronger incentives for technology transfer; especially for CDM in connection with relocating the domestic production to a developing country. Hence the emissions embodied in the imports of the country enabling technology transfer can be reduced along with the emissions reduction commitment of that country. 2.4 International transportation International transportation is responsible for an estimated 7% of global CO2 emissions according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [8]. The Kyoto Protocol does not hold anybody responsible for the CO2 emissions of international transportation. Allocating emissions embodied in international transportation to the countries consuming the respective transported goods is conclusive and thus another argument in the favour of CBA. 2.5 Measurement for carbon emissions The assessment technique used to calculate embodied carbon emissions is, as a basic requirement, an important issue for a fair allocation of emissions responsibility. Carbon emissions can be calculated at the point of production, as practiced under the current Kyoto Protocol. This is a relatively simple method, where the input of fuels is multiplied with the carbon emission factor of the specific fuel. The term embodied emissions considers the emissions from each stage of the production process to the final consumer goods. There are different assessment techniques for this approach, such as carbon footprint and life-cycle analysis. Kejun et al. [9] investigate different approaches and state the necessity of more research on this issue. Nevertheless, these approaches take a closer look at the entire supply chain as opposed to the current calculation method used under the Kyoto Protocol. At the same time they are much more complex
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regarding data collection and required statistics, and therefore more costintensive. Steckel et al. [10] argue that, within a general trade model, switching from PBA to CBA has no influence on the welfare of countries. In their opinion mainly ethical reasons argue for CBA; however, one should prefer PBA due to lower transaction costs. In the case of grandfathering (past emissions determine the emission allowances allocation) CBA and PBA will lead to different results of distribution. Net exporters of GHG emissions would benefit from PBA. In a mechanism where historical emissions of a country reduce its emission allowances, net exporters of GHG emissions would benefit from CBA. Hence the accounting system can influence the allocation of emission allowances. Steckel et al. [10] argue that the willingness of countries to contribute towards a post-Kyoto mechanism depends more on the initial allocation scheme of emission allowances than on the accounting method. The allocation of emissions allowances on the basis of PBA is simpler than on the basis of CBA. Several studies already investigated GHG flows of international trade and the relationship between the individual countries (e.g. Peters and Hertwich [7]), but a detailed, overall analysis is still missing. For analyzing carbon emissions embodied in imports and exports of a country, a topdown method using input-output analysis could be applied (Kejun et al. [9]). Serrano and Dietzenbacher [11] compare different approaches for evaluating the international emissions responsibility of an individual country. Due to limited data availability they propose a simple alternative on an aggregate level evaluating the emissions embodied in trade. Regarding the appropriate evaluation method for the proposed indicators, further research is required; also for the calculation approach concerning the emissions embodied in international transportation.
3 Sharing the responsibility between producers and consumers

The allocation of emissions allowances on the basis of PBA is not as complicated as allocating them on the basis of CBA. Several studies have already investigated GHG flows of international trade and the relationship between the individual countries (e.g. Peters and Hertwich [7]), but a detailed, overall analysis is still missing. Beside the advantage in allocating emissions allowances by PBA, this approach allows high transparency and is consistence with GDP. Because the responsibility of the producers is emphasized, they have a stronger incentive to use low-carbon technologies. Pure CBA would reduce the incentive for low-carbon technology for producers significantly. This is particularly true in CO2 exporting countries. In order to take advantages of CBA as well as PBA, a post-Kyoto mechanism should combine these two approaches. Producers as well as consumers have an incentive to reduce GHG emissions of a specific product. Reducing these emissions under shared responsibility is in the interest of each member of the supply chain. Collaboration between producer and consumer to reach this target

is encouraged. There is no incentive for collaboration in full producer or full consumer responsibility. Bastianoni et al. [3] developed an indicator that adds the embodied CO2 emissions of the respective upstream parts of the supply chain to each part of the supply chain of a product. This means that emissions are counted twice or multiple times. The resulting emissions of each part of the supply chain are divided by the sum of all resulting emissions of the entire supply chain. Bastianoni et al. [3] provide the indicator CEA (carbon emission added), which determines the responsibility of each part of the supply chain. For example: A supply chain has three parts A,B and C. According to PBA the embodied emissions are 50 units for A, 30 units for B and 20 units for C. Under the CEA approach, A is responsible for 50 units, B for 80 units (50+30) and C for 100 units (50+30+20). The responsibilities divided by their sum 230 (50+80+100) show us the final responsibility of each part of the supply chain: A with 22 units, B with 35 units and C as the last part of the supply chain with 43 units. By that indicator the responsibility increases within the supply chain; the consumer has the most responsibility. Rodrigues et al. [12] propose an indicator of environmental responsibility that is unique for the required properties, like additivity, accountability for indirect effects for economic causality, monotony in direct environmental pressure, and symmetry in consumption and production. They emphasize the importance of the presentation of the data in a fair manner for the commitment of all parties to an international agreement. In their opinion the responsibility of a country should correspond to its contribution to total environmental pressure. Rodrigues et al. [12] describe the environmental responsibility of a country as a linear combination of the upstream environmental pressure of the final demand and of the downstream environmental pressure of the primary inputs of this country. They show that the environmental responsibility is the arithmetic average of the environmental pressure of final demand and primary inputs. Lenzen et al. [13] focus on the problem of double-counting by adding producers footprint to the footprint of another producer, or to consumer or population footprints. For this reason they discuss a method of delineating the supply chains, and propose an indicator which considers sector-specific fractions of upstream embodied emissions. This indicator allocates the responsibility according to added value. The sum of all upstream embodied emissions of one sector is identified as the producer responsibility. The part of the upstream embodied emissions reaching final demand is identified as the consumer responsibility.
4 ER indicator
The authors propose an indicator based on the experiences under the Kyoto Protocol and on the scientific literature. The idea was to develop an indicator that, on the one hand, can be implemented in the current scheme and, on the other hand, increases the willingness of participation of developed as well as of developing countries. The proposed ER (Emissions Responsibility) indicator
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combines the advantages of a consumption-based principle and of a productionbased principle. The basis is PBA, which means that the basis for calculation are the emissions arising from production. But the responsibility for internationally traded goods is shared between producers and consumers. The ER indicator shows the responsibility of a country for its carbon emissions by the emissions embodied in the domestic production minus a fraction of the emissions embodied in the exports of the country and plus a fraction of the emissions embodied in its imports:
ER EEP EEE EEI
(1)
ER emissions responsibility EEP emissions embodied in domestic production EEE emissions embodied in ex ports EEI emissions embodied in imports EEC emissions embodied in consumption
Fraction of the emissions embodied in exports of country A is allocated to the importing country B; hence country A, as the producing country, is responsible for the fraction 1 of its exports. For 0 1 the authors propose 0.5, which means that half of the emissions embodied in traded goods are allocated to the producing country and half to the consuming country. Table 1 demonstrates the impact of the proposed ER indicator on the carbon emissions responsibility of individual countries. Table 1: Impact of the ER indicator on the individual countrys carbon responsibility, = 0.5. A 120 60 20 80 100 B 80 40 40 80 80 C 40 20 60 80 60
EEP EEE EEI EEC ER=EEP-0.5EEE+0.5EEI
Country A has a high production level as well as a high export quota. In comparison country C has a much lower production level but a much higher import quota. The consumption of country C embodies the same carbon emissions like the consumption of country A, but the carbon emissions responsibility of country A would be much higher than the responsibility of country C because of the producer responsibility as an exporting country. Country B with balanced carbon trade is responsible for the emissions that are embodied in its consumption. In sharing the responsibility for traded goods, countries switching the production to other countries are better off.

This could be acceptable if one argued that countries with high exports have the corresponding advantages (added value, jobs) on the one hand, and better possibilities for reducing emissions embodied in production by using low-carbon technologies on the other hand. In Table 2 the authors demonstrate the ER indicator with shifting the carbon emissions responsibility to the importing country by determining as 0.75 of the embodied emissions. Thereby the producing country keeps a lower carbon emissions responsibility of 0.25 for its exports. Table 2: Impact of the ER indicator on the individual countrys carbon responsibility, = 0.75. A 120 60 20 80 90 B 80 40 40 80 80 C 40 20 60 80 70
EEP EEE EEI EEC ER=EEP-0.75EEE+0.75EEI
Comparing the emissions responsibility in table 1 and 2 it is obviously that with an increasing value for the responsibility shifts more to the consumer side. The responsibility of the exporting country A decreases from 100 to 90, and the emissions responsibility of the importing country C increases from 60 to 70.
5 ERIT indicator
As the ER indicator does not include carbon emissions embodied in international transportation, the indicator can be expanded correspondingly. Under the assumption that carbon emissions embodied in international transportation can be allocated to the imports, it is proposed to add the responsibility for these emissions to the consumers. On the one hand the consumer responsibility is strengthened and on the other hand an importing country is able to influence the mode of transportation. Cadarso et al. [14] indicate the allocation of emissions embodied in international transportation as Broad Consumer Responsibility. The ERIT (Emissions Responsibility including emissions embodied in International Transportation) indicator shows the responsibility of a country for its carbon emissions by the emissions embodied in the domestic production minus a fraction of the emissions embodied in the exports of the country, plus a fraction of the emissions embodied in its imports and plus the emissions embodied in international transportation associated with imports:
ERIT EEP EEE EEI EEIT
(2)
EEIT emissions embodied in international transportation of imports ERIT emissions responsibility including emissions embodied in international transportation
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Table 3:
Impact of the ERIT indicator on the individual countrys carbon responsibility, = 0.75. A 120 60 20 80 5 95 B 80 40 40 80 10 90 C 40 20 60 80 15 85
EEP EEE EEI EEC EEIT ERIT=EEP-0.75EEE+0.75EEI+EEIT
Including emissions embodied in international transportation to our indicator and allocating them to the consumers means a more balanced carbon emissions responsibility between producers and consumers.
6 Conclusion
The authors are of the opinion that the Kyoto Protocol was and still is a milestone in global environmental policy. It makes sense to look for small but effective changes to this protocol instead of looking for a completely new scheme. CBA could be this effective change for post-Kyoto, helping to increase the acceptance of a contribution among both developing and developed countries. The proposed ER and ERIT indicators calculate the emissions on the basis of the much simpler PBA approach, but share the responsibility for traded goods between producers and consumers. Thereby the authors combine the advantages of the PBA and CBA approach. Emissions embodied in international transportation are allocated to the consuming country. Further research is required regarding the appropriate measurement for carbon emissions; additionally regarding the level of , as the responsibility for emissions embodied in imports, and how the historical responsibility of the developed countries could be integrated in the proposed indicators. The ER and ERIT indicators indentify the emissions responsibility allocated to the different countries. In a further step a proposal for an emission allowances scheme is required, which determines the progress of the country-related carbon emission allowances until 2050, taking into account that the increase in global average temperature has to be hold below 2C above pre-industrial levels.
References
[1] Lin, B. & Sun, C., Evaluating carbon dioxide emissions in international trade of China. Energy Policy, 38, pp. 613621, 2010. [2] Bruckner, M., Polzin, Ch. & Giljum, S., Counting CO2 emissions in a globalised world. DIE Research Project Development Policy: Questions for the Future, Bonn, 2010.

[3] Bastianoni, S., Pulselli, F.M. & Tiezzi, E., The problem of assigning responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions. Ecological Economics, 49, pp. 253257, 2004. [4] Davis, S.J. & Caldeira, K., Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol.107, no.12, pp. 56875692, 2010. http://www.pnas.org/content/107/12/5687.full.pdf+html [5] Peters, G.P., From production-based to consumption-based national emission inventories. Ecological Economics, 65, pp. 1323, 2008. [6] Peters, G.P. & Hertwich, E.G., Post-Kyoto greenhouse gas inventories: production versus consumption. Climate Change, 86, pp. 5166, 2008. [7] Peters, G.P. & Hertwich, E.G., Trade and the environment: implications for climate change policy. Ninth biennial conference of the international society for ecological economics on ecological sustainability and human well-being. New Dehli, India, 2006. [8] U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Trade, Transportation and Environment. http://www.epa.gov/oia/trade/transport.html [9] Kejun, J., Cosbey, A. & Murphy, D., Embodied Carbon in Traded Goods. Trade and Climate Change Seminar. Copenhagen, Denmark, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), June 18-20, 2008. [10] Steckel, J.Ch., Kalkuhl, M. & Marschinski, R., Should carbon-exporting countries strive for consumption-based accounting in a global cap-and-trade regime? PIK Working Paper, Mar 2010. [11] Serrano, M. & Dietzenbacher, E., Responsibility and trade emission balances: An evaluation of approaches. Ecological Economics, 69, pp. 22242232, 2010. [12] Rodrigues, J., Domingos, T., Giljum, S. & Schneider, F., Designing an indicator of environmental responsibility. Ecological Economics, 59, pp. 256266, 2006. [13] Lenzen, M., Murray, J., Sack, F. & Wiedmann, T., Shared producer and consumer responsibility Theory and practice. Ecological Economics, 61, pp. 2742, 2007. [14] Cadarso, M.A., Lpez, L.A., Gmez, N. & Tobarra, M.A., CO2 emissions of international freight transport and offshoring: Measurement and allocation. Ecological Economics, 69, pp. 16821894, 2010.
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Paying the price: nationalisation of private property or restoring the commons?

F. Rochford
La Trobe University, Australia
Abstract
In November 2009 Peter Spencer, an Australian Grazier, climbed a tower on his property in New South Wales and began a hunger strike. He claimed to be protesting against limits to vegetation clearing which effectively sterilised his assets. He argued that land use constraints have been used as a carbon offset to en su re compliance with carbon reduction targets, but that they have rendered his land unviable. Although he has discontinued his hunger strike, litigation in the High Court continues, claiming that limitations on land clearance are an expropriation of property attracting the provisions of the Australian Constitution which require compensation on just terms. This paper assesses tension between restrictions on private property and the interests of the community in addressing climate change, considering the justifications for private property. It considers the legal mechanisms by which restrictions have been imported, and the claim that the Australian Federal Government has avoided the requirement to pay compensation because the regulatory regime was introduced by the State of New South Wales, as a result of agreement with the Commonwealth. It then considers the potential for regulatory action to cast the burden of climate change on a few, without compensation, and considers issues of justice arising from realisation of that potential. Keywords: sustainability, land use, property, law and policy.
1 Introduction
This paper examines the social and legal implications of legislation regulating land clearing on private land in Australia. Under the Kyoto Protocol, which Australia has now ratified, Australia is committed to containing its carbon

emissions. However, carbon sequestered in forests or on agricultural land may be included in calculations of net greenhouse gas emissions. Whilst Australia has significant public land 23%, or 1767.9 thousand square kilometres of Australian land is public (Geoscience Australia [1]) private land is included in attempts to comply with Australias commitments under multiple environmental policies. Federal and state enactments, developed through co-operative mechanisms, have delivered significant impetus to Australias attempts to comply with limitations on carbon gas emissions by locking up private land, thus preventing deforestation. However, this has resulted in significant rural disquiet, both as a consequence of constraints on rural land use which have forced changes to rural business enterprises, and because of the perception that individuals are unfairly bearing the cost of Australias quest for compliance with emissions targets, while the federal government has avoided the constitutional obligation to pay compensation by technical legislative devices. Peter Spencer, a grazier with a 12000 acre property near Cooma, New South Wales, became the lightning rod for rural discontent in a 52-day hunger strike, galvanising popular (Rehn [2]) and political support (Arup and Reilly [3]). He commenced litigation, firstly - and unsuccessfully - in the Federal Court, then on Appeal in the Full Court of the Federal Court. The High Court on appeal, however, allowed his appeal. This issue has significant implications for Australian attempts to comply with emissions targets within budgetary limits, but also raises issues of justice. Compensation for government appropriation of private property is mandated in Australias Federal Constitution, but is not constitutionally demanded of state governments. Where incorporeal benefits, such as carbon sequestration rights, are severed from the title to real property and effectively appropriated by state action, this can have impacts on other property interests. Conversely, limitations on land use for carbon sequestration (and biodiversity), impose significant land use and planning restrictions on a large amount of Australian rural land. This recognises that whilst around 13 per cent of native vegetation has been cleared since 1750, the remaining 87 per cent consists of variable and fragmented cover. Restrictions on clearing apply to both established native vegetation and regrowth, so impact on land use and planning decisions in a massive swathe of private land.
2 Australias carbon emission framework

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC [4]) and Australias subsequent accession to the Kyoto Protocol under the Convention in 2007 committed it to greenhouse gas emissions targets based on 1990 greenhouse gas emission levels (UNFCCC [5]). Australia is committed to contain its greenhouse gas emissions to 108% of the 1990 baseline. One of the ways in which Australia intended to meet this target was by the development of an emissions trading scheme, the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, a cap-and-trade style policy which would have imposed annual quantity caps on overall emissions. Those emitters not excluded from the scheme would
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have had to acquire permits equivalent to their emissions, or to pay an emissions fee (Hepburn [6] p.243). The scheme was intended to be introduced by 2011, but was rejected in the Australian Parliament in August (the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Bill 2009) and again in December 2009 (the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Bill 2009 (No 2)). An amended version was reintroduced in February 2010 (the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Bill 2010) and passed through the chamber, but lapsed in the Senate in September 2010 when a general election was called. (Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency [7]; Parliament of Australia, Parliamentary Library [8]) An emissions trading scheme remains one mechanism to ensure Australias compliance with its obligations under the Kyoto Protocol, but the current Australian Labor federal government has not attempted to reintroduce it in this form. Instead, the development of a carbon tax has recently been announced, effectively to price carbon emissions (Shanahan [9]) although a significant voter backlash at this apparent breach of a pre-election promise signifies that this may also face political difficulties (see e.g. Franklin [10]; Kelly [11]) Whilst agriculture is currently excluded from the proposed taxation of greenhouse emissions (Kelly [12]), agricultural and forested land is particularly useful to reducing emissions under the Kyoto protocol because it has been accepted as a source of carbon offsets. The sequestration process refers to the natural absorption from the atmosphere of carbon dioxide by vegetation and soils and the storage of carbon in vegetation and soils. In this respect, the primary focus of the carbon sequestration right is upon storage rather than removal and the interest confers rights upon the holder to the benefits that may flow from such storage and storage potential (Hepburn [6] p.243). The reconceptualisation of the real property right in order to identify, register and trade in carbon sequestration rights, however, is challenging. Hepburn notes that [p]roperty systems are inherently conservative, seeking continuity in their basic internal framework (Hepburn [6] p.240). However, the newer agents of economic development (Hepburn [6] p.240) demand more, stimulating an evolution in the law of property. She notes that [t]he shift from a static agrarian conception of property, whereby an owner was essentially entitled to undisturbed enjoyment, to a more dynamic, instrumental, and abstract view of property in the 19th century, emphasising newly paramount virtues of productive use and land development, encouraged greater awareness of the utility of title fragmentation. (Hepburn [6] p.240) Australian jurisdictions have a history of innovation in market-based solutions to natural resource issues, and the capping of water extractions and severance of water from land has already enabled the creation of a partial grid for water transferrals to ameliorate drought and to allow water to be transferred to the most efficient use. Victorias BushBroker scheme similarly enables the offsetting of authorised vegetation clearances by the establishment of sites that can generate Native Vegetation Credits (DSE [13]). The cap-and-trade mechanism to facilitate the reduction in carbon emissions follows similar

economic reasoning. However, whereas in most states water has historically been reposed in the state, and generally required licensing and payment for water use, the development of a market superstructure for carbon emissions requires an alteration in generally accepted real property title concepts. This has been effected by new or amended legislation in most state jurisdictions. Most states in Australia have legislation severing the carbon sequestration capacity of land from the land itself, thus enabling trade in carbon offsets (Conveyancing Act 1919 (NSW) ss 87A, 88AB(1), 88EA; Forestry Act 1959 (Qld) s 61J(5); Forestry Rights Registration Act 1990 (Tas) s 5; Forest Property Act 2000 (SA) s 7; Carbon Rights Act 2003 (WA) s 6; Carbon Rights Act 2003 (WA) s 6; Forests Rights Act 1996 (Vic) ss 3, 4). The methods of validating the carbon interest differ; in some states it is in the form of a profit prendre, in some a new statutory interest, and in some an interest contingent on registration of a carbon agreement (Hepburn [6] p.246). However, [t]he primary feature of the carbon rights legislation in each State in Australia is the validation of the carbon right as a land interest separate from the land upon which it is situated. In this respect, the legislative provisions have amended the established common law presumption that trees growing upon the land and the carbon contained within those trees are a natural part of the land and therefore belong to the landowner. (Hepburn [6] p.247) Generally speaking, legislation in this form has concentrated on the establishment or maintenance of forests for carbon sequestration, and presuppose either the establishment of treed areas or the continuation of forests deliberately set aside for that purpose. The legislation enables creation and dealing with an interest in the carbon abatement properties of the treed land. This relatively narrow focus (Kennett et al. [14] p.208) means that many of the innovations of Australian farmers through no-till farming and nutrient management will not be considered to be carbon sequestration. Legislation in other forms, however, mandates the preservation of native vegetation or regrowth on Australian private land. Because of restrictions on land clearing, the owner of the real property may no longer have a full range of choice as to the use of that land. As will be seen, there are significant restrictions on the clearing of native vegetation by private landowners, and this is of significant benefit to Australias efforts to comply with the Kyoto Protocol. Since the primary purpose of the native vegetation protection legislation is the protection of biodiversity, the trade-off between agricultural and afforestation as carbon sequestration techniques is, perhaps, understandable, but the focus on forest sequestration to the exclusion of the potential for other agricultural activities for carbon sequestration is problematic.
3 Prohibitions on land clearing

Land clearing is regulated federally by the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (Cth). Each state has its own legislation and framework for the maintenance of native vegetation. In New South Wales the
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Native Vegetation Act 2003 (NSW) (previously the Native Vegetation Conservation Act 1997 (NSW) sets out landholder responsibility for native vegetation on private land. In Queensland, clearing of native vegetation is governed by the Vegetation Management Act 1999 (Qld) and the Sustainable Planning Act 2009 (Qld). In addition the State Policy for Vegetation Management and regional vegetation management codes provide policy and assessment tools against which the Acts are to be administered. Victorian landowner obligations are contained in the Flora and Fauna Guarantee Act 1988, (Vic), the Planning and Environment Act 1987 (Vic) and the Catchment and Land Protection Act 1994 (Vic) supplemented by the Native Vegetation Management: A Framework for action (2002), which espouses a net gain principle, under which native vegetation removal is subject to permit and must be offset by setting aside suitable land or by planting native vegetation. It has been incorporated into Victorian Planning Provisions since July 2003. The Environmental Protection Act 1986 (WA) and the Environmental Protection (Clearing of Native Vegetation) Regulations 2004 place similar controls over clearing of native vegetation in Western Australia. In South Australia, the Native Vegetation Act 1991 (SA), in the Northern Territory Planning Act or the Pastoral Land Act 1999, whereas the vegetation harvested for commercial purposes is covered by Territory Parks and Wildlife Conservation Act. In Tasmania Forest Practices Act 1985 (Tas) regulates clearing of threatened species. In the Australian Capital Territory clearing of native vegetation is controlled by the Land (Planning and Environment) Act 1991 and the Nature Conservation Act 1980. Prohibitions on clearance of native vegetation can have significant impacts on the capacity of rural landowners to fully utilise their land in an economic sense. Sinden [15] demonstrates that there is public benefit in protection on native vegetation on private land, but that private landholders incur significant cost by those measures (Sinden [15]). However, the extent of the value to the public, and the loss to the individual, varies considerably, particularly according to the type of soil, the extent of clearing, and the accessibility of the land. Not all of the value to the public is contained in the carbon sequestration capacity of the land; biodiversity protection, catchment benefits, decreased land degradation downriver, and presumably amenity benefits would accrue. Benefits would potentially equal the costs, but the distribution of costs remains an issue (Sindon [15] p.221). Whilst acknowledging that the manner and extent of conservation protection is, of course, primarily an environmental question and not an economic one (Sindon [15] p.221), Sindon notes that [t]he evidence from north-western New South Wales indicates that there can be gains in land value, losses in land value, or no change at all, when landholders are required to protect native vegetation on their farms. But the losses, or potential increases that cannot now be realised, are common, widespread and often large. They will be very large when the alternative agriculture is very productive and large percentages of vegetation remain on the farm (Sindon [15] p.222).

Conversely, the capacity of landowners to participate in a carbon credits market is currently limited by the lack of a legal and regulatory framework for determining the initial ownership of carbon sequestered on private land and for the trade in those interests (Kennett et al. [14]). The capacity to mitigate losses through these mechanisms is, therefore, limited. There are emissions trading schemes currently operating outside Kyoto, and there are examples of Australian businesses using cap-and-trade style mechanisms (Thompson and CampbellWatt [16]).
4 The case
In Spencer v Commonwealth of Australia [2010] HCA 28 (1 September 2010) the applicant, Spencer, held freehold and leasehold interests in a farm in New South Wales. As a consequence of restrictions on the clearing of native vegetation imposed by the Native Vegetation Act 2003 (NSW) and its predecessor legislation, Spencer claimed that he was unable to farm. In effect, he argued that his land had been economically neutralised. He had evidence to support this claim: the New South Wales Rural Assistance Authority assessed the property as commercially unviable because of his inability to clear native vegetation. At first instance in the Federal Court Emmet J held that Spencer had no real prospect of obtaining the relief he source, and granted the Commonwealths application that the proceedings be summarily dismissed. On appeal to the Full Court of the Federal Court (Black CJ, Jacobson and Jagot JJ) [17] Spencers appeal against summary dismissal of his claim was also dismissed. In the proceedings Spencer claimed that his property had effectively been expropriated. However, he argued that this constituted a constitutional acquisition under s.51(xxxi) of the federal constitution that is, that the acquisition was by the federal government. In the lower courts his case was summarily dismissed. Applying Pye v Renshaw [1951] HCA 8; (1951) 84 CLR 58 and following Arnold v Minister Administering the Water Management Act 2000 [2008] NSWCA 338 the courts below held that the acquisition had not been effected by the federal government, but by the operation of the New South Wales Act. The arrangement between the state and federal governments did not change that position. In dismissing the appeal from the primary judge, the Full Court of the Federal Court concluded that In common with the primary judge it is easy to sympathise with Mr Spencer if the effect of the State statutes has been to sterilise his land from any productive activity. Nevertheless that does not alter the fact that the proceeding has no reasonable prospect of success and the primary judge was correct to so conclude Spencer v Commonwealth of Australia [17] [para 36]). In Spencer v Commonwealth of Australia [2010] HCA 28 (1 September 2010) the High Court, however, granted special leave to appeal and the appeal was allowed. The High Court held that Spencers case potentially involves important questions of constitutional law, and raised issues of fact which could justify pre-trial processes denied by summary judgement. Further, the High
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Courts decision in ICM Agriculture Pty Ltd v The Commonwealth (2009) 240 CLR 140; [2009] HCA 51, which was heard by the High Court before the Full Court of the Federal Court had delivered their judgments, had an impact on whether pre-trial proceedings would be appropriate to ascertain the factual position in relation to the intergovernmental arrangements at the centre of Spencers claim (French CJ and Gummow J [para 4]).
5 Expropriation of property and just terms

Spencer, along with predecessor cases in ICM Agriculture Pty Ltd v The Commonwealth (2009) 240 CLR 140; [2009] HCA 51 and Arnold v Minister Administering the Water Management Act 2000 [2010] HCA 3 (10 February 2010), suggest increasing tension in techniques of co-operative federalism that have delivered a significant proportion of Australias planning and environmental legislation. The desire to plan and manage natural resources on an ecosystem level strikes significant constitutional impediments when the legislative power over private land and water is generally reposed in the states. Over the past few decades, federal and state governments have circumvented the federal governments constitutional limitations by an increasing array of interlocking or co-operative legislation. Land clearing restrictions typify the approach. Spencers argument was that the Native Vegetation Act 2003 (NSW) and its predecessor legislation contained prohibitions and restrictions on land clearing that effected an acquisition of his interests in his property. Critically, however, he argued that the acquisition was made in furtherance of agreements between New South Wales and the Commonwealth. The agreements cited were the Agreement between the Commonwealth of Australia and the State of New South Wales, 31 October 1997, which provided the basis for funding by the Commonwealth of programs addressing clearance of native vegetation, the Intergovernmental Agreement on a National Action Plan for Salinity and Water Quality, 3 November 2000, which provided funding for measures addressing salinity, the Agreement between Commonwealth of Australia and State of New South Wales Relating to the National Action Plan for Salinity and Water Quality, 17 May 2002, which, inter alia, allocated funding and addressed potential federal contribution to compensation requirements, and the Bilateral Agreement between the Commonwealth of Australia and the State of New South Wales to Deliver the Extension of the Natural Heritage Trust, 14 August 2003, which referred to an intention to work as joint investment partners with other stakeholders in natural resource management. Spencer argued that those agreements, and the laws which authorised them the Natural Resources Management (Financial Assistance) Act 1992 (Cth) and the Natural Heritage Trust of Australia Act 1997 (Cth), were made for the purpose of acquiring property other than on just terms and were invalid by reason of s 51(xxxi) of the Constitution. Section 51(xxxi) of the Constitution provides that the federal Parliament has power to make laws with respect to the acquisition of property on just terms from any State or person for any purpose in respect of which the Parliament has power to make laws. Spencer claimed that his property was being acquired on

other than just terms. In particular, he claimed that the carbon sequestration rights over his property were acquired by the commonwealth for the purpose of forwarding Australias compliance with the Kyoto protocol, and that if the federal government had been obliged to acquire those rights directly it would have had to pay just compensation. The critical issue for Spencer was the characterisation of the relationship between the state and federal acts whether an informal arrangement between the Commonwealth and the State of New South Wales conditioning the relevant Commonwealth funding upon acquisition by the State of Mr Spencers property rights on other than just terms (French CJ and Gummow J [para 31]). Practically, then, the High Court has facilitated an enquiry into the relationship between the very common funding arrangements between the Commonwealth and the states which enable the federal government to pursue environmental goals using state legislation.
6 Political and social implications

The technical arguments presented in Spencer, as in ICM and Arnold before it, belie the serious issues of justice presented in these cases. The right to just compensation for expropriation of private property is arguably one of the foundational constitutional principles in English law. The Constitutional right to compensation is designed to bar Government from forcing some people alone to bear public burdens which, in all fairness and justice, should be borne by the public as a whole (Armstrong v United States [18]). Constitutional protection against uncompensated expropriation of property has been traced back to the Magna Carta, Blackstone and Locke (Christie [19]). A failure to provide compensation allows the individual to bear the costs of social objectives alone, where justice would prescribe that it be distributed across the wider community. Certainly, from the perspective of the Australian rural community, there is a perception that the failure to provide sufficient compensation for constraining land use decisions is unfair, and when the benefits to the wider community outweigh those to the landowner affected that perception is crystallised. Landowners whose land has been economically neutralised in pursuit of national objectives but who have been offered insufficient or no compensation would be justified in thinking that their property has been effectively nationalised. However, Australias capacity to forward significant sustainability objectives is constrained by its Constitutional framework the Australian Constitution prescribes and limits the Commonwealths power to legitimately allow a national emissions trading system within Australia (Garner [20]), just as it limits its capacity to forward a national program for regulation of water extraction and use, and a national agenda for biodiversity conservation. The High Courts decision in Spencer does not provide a final answer on the Constitutional propriety of the funding arrangements that have purchased state support for environmental programs. However, it could signal a serious disruption to the accepted realpolitick of fiscal federalism in Australia, and may
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prompt a rebalancing of federal/state relations. It is not clear, however, that the current restrictions on private property activity will be dismantled.
References
[1] Geoscience Australia (nd), Land Tenure http://www.ga.gov.au/education/ geoscience-basics/land-tenure.html. [2] Rehn, A, Mass rally for pole sitting hunger striker Peter Spencer Herald Sun January 4, 2010, http://www. heraldsun.com.au/news/national/mass-rally-for-pole-sitting-hunger-strikerpeter-spencer/story-e6frf7l6-1225815790482. [3] Arup, T, and Reilly, T, Fears of lasting harm to body ended hunger strike Brisbane Times January 14, 2010 http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/ national/fears-of-lasting-harm-to-body-ended-hunger-strike-20100113m71k.html. [4] UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), opened for signature 9 May 1992, 1771 UNTS 107 (entered into force 21 March 1994) http://unfccc.int/2860.php. [5] UNFCCC, Status of ratification http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/ status_of_ratification/items/2613.php. [6] Hepburn, S, Carbon rights as new property: the benefits of statutory verification (2009) 31 Sydney Law Review 239 271. [7] Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (nd)) http://www.climatechange.gov.au/government/initiatives/cprs.aspx. [8] Parliament of Australia, Parliamentary Library (nd) http://www.aph.gov. au/library/pubs/climatechange/governance/domestic/national/cprs.htm. [9] Shanahan, D, Carbon price would need to be tripled to force change from coal-fired electricity The Australian March 12th, 2011 http:// www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/carbon-price-would-need-to-betripled-to-force-change-from-coal-fired-electricity/story-fn59niix1226020025233. [10] Franklin, M, Julia Gillard puts carbon tax on US agenda The Australian March 11th 2011 http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/julia-gillard-putscarbon-tax-on-us-agenda/story-e6frg6n6-1226019468733. [11] Kelly, P, Gillard has no choice but to fight The Australian March 12th, 2011 http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/commentary/gillardhas-no-choice-but-to-fight/story-e6frgd0x-1226019974555. [12] Kelly, J, Climate change adviser recommends agriculture be included in a carbon price regime The Australian March 1st, 2011 http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate-change-adviserrecommends-agriculture-be-included-under-a-carbon-price-regime/storyfn59niix-1226014181851). [13] DSE (Department of Sustainability and Environment) (nd) http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/DSE/nrence.nsf/LinkView/90D1EEF7733B9CD 7CA256FA4001617CE4F65BBF1E5A3A721CA25720C00167A65.

[14] Kennett, S, Kwasniak, A, and Lucas, A, Property rights and the legal framework for carbon sequestration on agricultural land (2005-6) 37 Ottawa Law Review 171 213. [15] Sinden, J A, Do the public gains from vegetation protection in NorthWestern New South Wales exceed the landholders loss of land value? (2004) 26(2) Rangeland Journal 204-224. [16] Thompson A, and Campbell-Watt, R, Australia and an emissions trading market opportunities, costs and legal frameworks (2005) 24 Australian Resources and Energy Law Journal 151 171. [17] Spencer v Commonwealth of Australia [2009] FCAFC 38 (24 March 2009). [18] Armstrong v United States, 364 U.S. 40, 49, 4 L. Ed. 2d. 1554, 1561 (1960). [19] Christie, D R, A Tale of Three Takings: Taking Analysis in Land Use Regulation in the United States, Australia and Canada (September 2006). FSU College of Law, Public Law Research Paper No. 186; Brooklyn Journal of International Law, Vol. 32, No. 2, 2007. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=882096. [20] Garner, R, Regulating a national emissions trading system within Australia: Constitutional limitations (2006) 3 Journal of International and Comparative Environmental Law 83 112.
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Participation of children: an alternative to building new cities

L. Brazil dos Santos Argueta
Federal Fluminense University, Brazil Genesis Environmental Education Center, Brazil
Abstract
The present article is based on partial results obtained in the extension project Building Pathways to Sustainability, whose main objective is to create conditions for the participation of children in overcoming the social and environmental problems and build sustainable societies, with reference to the neighborhoods where they reside. The project is a realization of the Pro-Rectory of Extension of the Federal Fluminense University (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) in partnership with the Genesis Environmental Education Center (CEAG), with support of Alliance Franaise of Niteri. In 2009, the project was selected for presentation at UNESCO World Conference on Education for Sustainable Development, in Bonn, Germany. In 2010, the project was among the 100 best practices in Education for Sustainability UNO-HABITAT. We show how by adopting a methodology based on the components of empowerment of children from So Gonalo and Itabora children are overcoming the naturalized view of environmental problems, strengthening selfesteem and organizing small projects and campaigns. Evidently, they are isolated and do not promote structural changes, but they mark the beginning of a process that should extend until they have the skills and information necessary to intervene in the structural causes and thus help build urban spaces with greater equity, social justice, democratic empowerment and sustainability. Our hope with this report is to contribute to the development of new experience in this area, especially from the university extension. Its necessary to carry out integrated activities of research and extension to create spaces where children together with adults participate in the process of building new cities. Keywords: sustainable development, education for sustainability, participation of children, democratic empowerment.
1 Introduction
The guidelines for the construction of sustainable development are systematized in Agenda XXI and can be viewed from two perspectives: an eminently economic one, based on economic agreements as well as certificates, and another one based on the participation of all stakeholders. Both are important: The first because it is related to the production sector and contribute to economic growth, a fundamental aspect of sustainability in construction. The second concerns the presence of all members of society in the process of building sustainability, as this may contribute to the proposals that meet the needs of everyone. The work was developed in the counties of Itabora and So Gonalo, and is based on the second part. The scenery of the action: the urban space, the actors: children aged from 8 to 15. The urban area was chosen as a scenario, given that: 1) Brazil has the largest share of its population living in the city, in concentrated form. 60% of the population live in 224 municipalities with more than 100 000 inhabitants, of which 94 belong to urban and metropolitan areas with over 1 million inhabitants. 2) The unsustainability existing in these clusters, especially in its periphery due to a development model that focused on the economic aspect, being implemented only by members of the government sector. The children were chosen as key players because they suffer more severe impacts of unsustainability. Historically they have been excluded from decision making processes and this exclusion must be overcome. The quotation below is illustrative. ... consider it necessary to not only know them as distinct social groups, with different cultures and life experiences than those found among the older groups, but mainly listen to them in order to confront together the serious problems that the current Brazilian society poses. Not only are children and young people at risk, as they say, the whole society is in this situation until we incorporate them in the preparation of projects of today [1]. For us to build sustainable societies in their various dimensions is one of the most important projects today. Such exploration should include the participation of all people, in accordance to Sorrentino: In a global perspective, not just admire the look of the Western white man. We need to include women, blacks, young, elderly, children and homosexuals, the southern countries, the interior, the periphery, artists, pacifists and other ethnic minorities, listening to them in their specificity and encouraging to express their dreams, demands and proposals [2]. We share the view of the author that there is no way to overcome the barriers of economics, culturally and ecologically, on global, national, regional or local level, without that all of us participate, including children. Although this idea is shared by many scholars, such as [1, 35] the question that arises is: how
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feasible is the participation of children? What strategies need to be undertaken? For children living in segregated urban areas, the issue becomes even more delicate because they suffer more discrimination due to where they live, and this often affects self-esteem, which may compromise the ability to participate. How overcome these difficulties? The construction of answers to these questions has been the object of the Disadvantaged Urban Childhood Program, Environmental Education and Sustainability. Development for seven years in cities that were part of the Metropolitan Region of Rio de Janeiro and includes research, seminars, courses and projects. One very important project is the Building Pathways to Sustainability, whose main objective is to create conditions for the participation of children in overcoming the social and environmental problems and build sustainable societies, with reference to the neighborhoods where they reside. The project is a realization of the Pro-Rectory of Extension of the Federal Fluminense University (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) in partnership with the Genesis Environmental Education Center (CEAG), and with support from the Alliance Franaise of Niteri. In 2009, it was selected for presentation at UNESCO World Conference on Education for Sustainable Development, in Bonn, Germany. In 2010, it was among the 100 best practices in Education for Sustainability UNOHABITAT. The methodology was constructed, with reference to the concept of empowerment, a concept developed within the funding agencies as a way to combat poverty in countries throughout the 80s. Its background is the construction of a newly proposed development a sustainable development. This concept goes beyond notions of democracy, human rights and participation, to include the possibility of understanding the reality of their environment (social, political, economic, ecological and cultural) reflecting on the factors that shape their environment, as well as taking initiatives to improve their own situation [6]. It is an awareness of his reality and can be understood as an evolving process of awareness, and foster the growth of understanding about the situation of the subjects experienced, the determinants of the same and the impacts that flow from it, continuing until that individuals are able to intervene in the structural processes that cause this situation. The concept is targeted to the poor segments of the population and in the process of impoverishment, living both in urban and in rural areas, regardless of gender, ethnicity and age, and is based on three components: cognitive, psychological and political, named components Stromquist [7]. To work with children we have adapted the components according to their perspective: The cognitive component refers to a consciousness about the reality and causes of domination. For children, this is a dominance of adults, which has as one of the consequences, their exclusion from decision-making processes, whether in private or public aspects. Thus this component must: a) provide the children with opportunities for discussion on the situation of exclusion that are subjected to at home, school and community life;

b) provide the understanding by children of the factors that contribute to exclusion; c) to show children that participation is a right guaranteed in the Convention on the Rights of the Child and the Child and Adolescent; d) facilitate an understanding of the right to participation, as well as its meanings and benefits; e) promote knowledge of the History of Childrens Rights; f) to help the child assume the commitment to exercise this right. The physiological component refers to the development of self-esteem and confidence, as they, according to [7], constitute requirements for decision making. In the case of residents of segregated spaces, self-esteem is often affected by the territorial stigma. So consider the need to build, for the children, a picture of your living space without the mediation of negative media and thus strengthen the bonding of their location. [4] shows that exercise participation presupposes the existence of love, which means to identify with the place and make it yours. The knowledge of the city, necessary but not sufficient, makes it possible to love the city, both are essential as a psychological condition to the exercise of citizenship. love the city here means identifying with this place, make it your own, which demand action and involvement of the subject [4]. The political components involve the skills and information necessary to conduct the analysis of the social environment in order to produce change. In the case of this study the social environment refers to the residential space located in segregated urban areas. Therefore it is necessary that children can understand the problems in these spaces that have, within the logic of urbanization, spatial segregation and social exclusion. This means that in the framework of the proposed empowerment, they should receive information about the spatial segregation, in general and how it materializes in its city and neighborhood. In addition, there must be places where they can reflect on the impact that segregation does to them, both at present and in the future and build strategies to overcome this. This methodology has been used in many studies conducted by me with children in Rio de Janeiro. The political component undergoes some changes in order to work in reality with children. In Itabora and So Gonalo, in addition to spatial segregation, we emphasized the unsustainability in its various dimensions. In this article we show how the children of So Gonalo and Itabora are overcoming a naturalized view of environmental problems, strengthening selfesteem and organizing small projects and campaigns. Evidently they are isolated actions that dont promote structural changes, but mark the beginning of a process that should extend until they have the skills and information necessary to intervene in the structural causes and to help build urban spaces with greater equity, social justice, democratic empowerment and sustainability.
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2 In pursuit of sustainable cities

The development models implemented in Brazil had the marks of the economic focus, the technicality and the inclusion of civil society, whether in planning or implementation. The most obvious result of these models is the conformation of cities with numerous social and environmental problems, which persist even today in various regions of Brazil. The first, in the 50s was based on industrialization, concentrated in only two states of Brazil, So Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. The new centers have received large investments to build infrastructure, related to the reproduction of industrial capital. Although a big population has been directed to these poles, there was concern about investments that ensure the reproduction of workers and their families. This model contributed to the destruction of economic activities in several states, destruction of agriculture and a significant exodus toward the cities, which began to experience problems due to the lack of housing for new residents. At first those residents were living in slums, on the outskirts and then later in lots of cities further away, like So Gonalo and Itabora. The second model of development began from the 70s and was based in the construction of large projects in cities in different parts of the Brazilian territory. These projects were in the area of energy production so that the conditions of reproduction and expansion of monopoly capital, consisting of state enterprises, multinational companies and domestic companies were guaranteed. The social aspects were relegated, more intensely than in the previous period, resulting in an increase in population of the cities, and misery in the large cities. Of the approximately 33 000 inhabitants, 35% were in cities and 41% in metropolitan areas. Thus there was a proliferation of clusters of exclusion. These clusters are composed of some neighborhoods, slums, small and medium-density population and housing, which may be located both in the peripheries, and in central areas of urban centers. Such sites make up a marginality, which consists of: A regime of confinement and socio-spatial exile that emerged in the post-Fordist city as a result of unstable changes in the more advanced capitalist economies and the dismantling of the Welfare State, or its relationship with the segments of the working class and categories dominated by ethnocracy that inhabit the lower regions of the physical and social space [8]. Throughout the 80s and 90s, locations such as hillsides, riverbanks, roads and surrounding ecosystems, such as mangroves, have been filled by an increasingly impoverished population, constituting what some scholars call the tragedy of the Brazilian urbanization. It manifests itself through different kinds of unsustainability. During the 90s Brazil has undergone a process of democratization. A significant milestone was the enactment of the new constitution, in which was guaranteed the right to popular participation, through instruments such as councils, unions and classes. The new political scenario in Brazil and the

emergence of the concept of sustainable development meant new development proposals to incorporate not only the economic dimension but also social, environmental, ecological, cultural, among others. Such a scenario has caused the creation of courses, research and projects at universities in order to discuss conceptual issues related to sustainable development and strategies for their construction. Participation was considered as one of the tactics being used, but within the radical-democratic perspective. This participation is regarded as the creation of a culture focused on the division of responsibilities in the construction of a collective process and are articulated to citizenship and empowerment. The target horizon is the conception of social transformation so that inequalities can be overcome, as stated [9]. The radical-democratic conception on participation aims to strengthen civil society and to build paths to a new social reality, without injustice, exclusion, inequality and discrimination [9]. Its effectiveness can be in any space, and does not have a specific model to be followed and may be exercised by different social actors. Its not an end in itself, but is geared toward the achievement of certain objectives. He makes the assumption that individuals know how to take the necessary actions to the participatory process. This requirement raises the need for training for participation, which according to [10] should cover theoretical information on participation and its object: Its necessary that the people or the citizens whom among that participation is encouraged, have enough information available about this area or sector of participation. In addition, there is some theoretical elements to give meaning to participation [10]. Currently the concept of sustainable development is present in governmental bodies and participation of various sectors of society is ensured. An example is the construction of the petrochemical complex of PETROBRAS COMPERJ in Itabora. The complex will be built on an area of 45 million square feet with an estimated investment of around U.S.$8.38 billion. The main objective is to increase domestic production of petrochemicals, with the processing of approximately 150 thousand barrels per day of domestic heavy oil and the generation of more than 200 000 direct jobs, indirect, and income effect. The principal industrial enterprise of Brazil , and one of the biggest in the world, COMPERJ marks the resumption of Petrobras to the petrochemical industry and will transform the socio-economic region of influence. The concern with sustainable development led to the adoption of several measures: One is the creation of CONLEST. This consortium was formed to meet the challenges that the venture COMPERJ will bring to the Eastern Region Fluminense, minimizing the negative consequences and trying to strengthen the positive ones , in a vision of regional cooperation, whose primary objective is to overcome the particular needs of each municipality for the development of public policies aimed at sustainable development throughout the Region and beyond Itabora, So Gonalo, and 11 more counties that constitute CONLEST:
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Niteri, Marica , Tangu, Rio Bonito, Cachoeiras de Macacu, Guapimirim, Mage, Silva Jardim, Araruama, Casimiro de Abreu. At the international level there is the initiative of UNO-HABITAT to monitor the Millennium goals in the region. The work is done in partnership with three universities and government. There is also the job of monitoring the organization of PETROBRAS Forums in each municipality in order to develop the schedules of COMPERJ XXI. Building of paths to Sustainability is also part of this effort in the pursuit of sustainability and is geared to children.
3 In pursuit of sustainable cities at the CONLESTE

The scenario consists of the municipalities of Itabora with about 210,000 inhabitants and So Gonalo with 1,300,000. The social and environmental conditions are poor and are due in large part to the development model implemented in Brazil, especially in the 70s, when they became place of residence of impoverished workers. A brief examination of the various dimensions of sustainability, gives an idea of the local situation and justifies the need for urgent interventions. a) Environmental sustainability: Refers to the ability to maintain the carrying capacity of ecosystems, which involves the absorption capacity and ecosystem restoration in the face of anthropogenic interference. Local ecosystems are compromised. Most affected are the rivers and the forests. The rivers due to the launch of garbage, sewage and chemical waste, and the occupation of its banks. The woods in the light of fires and use of areas for housing construction. Ecological sustainability Refers to the physical basis of the growth process and aims to maintain natural capital stocks incorporated into productive activities. The regions natural capital is compromised due to intensive farming that has been occurring for decades. Social sustainability refers to the living conditions of the population. In both cities the proper conditions are poor, placing the population in a situation of vulnerability, particularly due to the lack or insufficiency of urban services. Political sustainability Refers to the process of building citizenship in its various angles and aims to ensure the full integration of individuals into the development process. Even with the changes promoted by the new constitution, the incorporation of individuals is still incipient. The population is not yet organized to claim their rights permanently. Economic sustainability Implies an efficient resource management in general and is characterized by the regular flow of public and private investment. Economic stagnation dominated the region for over 30 years. The installation of COMPERJ inaugurates a new era with countless possibilities of public and private investment.
b)
c)
d)
e)
Figure 1:
Contamination of watercourses.
Figure 2:
Destruction of vegetation Itabora So Gonalo.
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Figure 3:
Timber extraction for brick making.
Figure 4:
Extraction of stone for construction Itabora So Gonalo.
Figure 5:
Unpaved streets.
Figure 6:
Garbage in the streets.
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Figure 7: f)
Air pollution.
g) h)
i) j)
k)
Demographical sustainabiliy Reveals the limits of carrying capacity of a given territory and its resource base. So far, the region has a great capacity to absorb population. However, it can be compromised with the new developments underway, as it will attract people from various regions of Brazil. Cultural sustainability Relates to the ability to maintain the diversity of cultures, values and practices of a particular place and that makes up the identity of individuals. Institutional sustainability Refers to the creation and strengthening of institutional engineering to consider sustainability criteria. This concern is present in the planning of new ventures, especially those related to COMPERJ. Spatial sustainability Refers to the search for greater equity in interregional relations. The region has some disparities between core and periphery areas. The farther from downtown, more precarious. Technological sustainability Refers to organized knowledge that is useful for the production of goods and services meeting the demands of society in accordance with environmental sustainability and with the other dimensions. Legal sustainability Refers to the corpus and the laws that should guide the environmental licensing plans, projects and programs. This bias of sustainability has been widely practiced in the region, especially with members of the Agenda XXI.

3.1 Actors The project is being conducted with children aged between 8 to 15 years, students of three Integrated Centers for Public Education (CIEP). This kind of school was created in the 80s different by offering full-time activities. The project is conducted in one CIEP in Itabora and two CIEP in So Gonalo. The beginning of the project was in 2009 with the selection of three schools. The choice was due to the location and the interest expressed by management. Table 1:
CIEP Pascoal Carlos Magno Localization is located in Itabora, near a remaining area of mangroves and an extensive area of vegetation is located in So Gonalo, a central area that will receive new residents due to the deployment of COMPERJ is located in So Gonalo, near an area of ecological interest, the Atlantic forest, with numerous springs and that has been destroyed by deforestation and fires
Actors.
Target audience students of the second segment of basic education students of the second segment of basic education Elementary students Students 1.200 Age range 12 to 15
Dr Zerbini
906
12 to 15
Nicanor Pereira Nunes
551
8 to 12
3.2 Methodology The project began with an investigation to identify the perception of children in relation to socio-environmental reality. The techniques used were individual interviews, conversations and interviews recorded on video. The answers given by the children showed that they considered the problems being natural, even the most serious problems such as the lack of garbage collection and sewage treatment, pollution caused by the presence of garbage in the open forest areas and deforestation. At no time were the children shown to be bothered by the situation. For many, the situation is part of urban life. The deforestation is even desirable, because they want a real town with tall buildings and cars. Children expressed themselves orally, writing and drawing. For some, the arrival of COMPERJ is the opportunity to have this true city. The investigation also showed that the destruction of ecosystems (rivers, wetlands, forests and the Guanabara Bay) was not a worrisome fact for them. How work to overcome the existing problems if for them, this is not a problem? The theoretical support has been given by Boff. He is an author who has discussed in several works, the current framework of environmental degradation.
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Described by him as a civilizational crisis, he blames lack of care as one of the causes of the situation facing millions of human beings and the Earth: There is a carelessness and neglect in safeguarding our common home, planet Earth. Soils are poisoned, air is contaminated, waters are polluted, forests are decimated, living species are exterminated [11]. For the author, to confront and overcome this situation has as one of its pillars the development of care, as well as other values. Care not just for special occasions, but a permanent attitude of care: Caring is more than an act: it is an attitude. So it covers more than a moment of attention, care and dedication. It represents an attitude of occupation, concern, responsibility and affective involvement with others [11]. In the case of the environmental crisis, it is caring for the planet and its ecosystems and all life that forms part of every day. Aiming to work aspects of care, an essay contest was held, in which children had to answer the question: Why every day is environment day? To answer this question, they sought information in books, magazines, websites. So they could understand the magnitude of environmental problems that needs constant care. The denaturalization of the environmental issue has been crafted by a photographic exhibition of the main local environmental problems and the region. The exhibit remained in school for two weeks and each class, along with the teacher, visited and received information from the monitors: an educator and a biologist. They learned that the situations in their cities are not natural, nor inevitable. We show that they are arising from the way the city is organized: in all cities and towns not much or not at all. We discuss the impacts of insecurity on the lives of children, both at present and in the future. This information helped the children to look at the city in a more critical manner. The approach favoured the impact of greater mobilization. Two dynamics were held during the exhibition: a) Party Each class chose a problem and a small group of children staged a protest in which they were placed against the occurrence of this problem. It is important to note that the situations previously regarded as natural for them, began to be a problem when being the target of protests. The presence of garbage in the streets and the dumping of sewage into rivers had the highest number of protests. b) Generation of manifestos The manifesto was drafted by the class, with teacher support. They chose one of the problems, studied the causes thereof, impacts and ways of coping. Then drew up a structured document, which put the group placement. Itabora produced a manifesto against the lack of transparency of the environmental policy of the municipality. The document was handed to local authorities for children. In So Gonalo, the CIEP Dr Zerbini produced several manifestos. One was against a company located near the school and throwing debris in a river. This manifesto was handed to the Campaign for Preserving the water and taking care of rivers.

The manifestos of the CIEP Nicanor Pereira Nunes were about the destruction of the springs and the release of waste in rivers. They made a documentary in which former residents were interviewed and showed the areas devastated by forest fires and deforestation. They are currently involved with the campaign to raise awareness about the disposition of garbage in inappropriate places in the neighborhood. This dynamic was very interesting; its implementation has required that children be informed about the legislation and one has used the instrument of Claim. After dynamic and exhibition the children were visiting the areas of ecological interest in the region. The pressure on these areas is very high and they risk being used for housing construction. In So Gonalo a remnant of Atlantic Forest is being cleared for construction of condominiums and in Itabora the remaining areas of mangroves is equally at risk. The visits helped the children understand the importance of the areas in environmental, ecological and economical terms. These initial activities have contributed to them being increasingly more involved in routing local issues. During a demonstration of the people of Itabora against the installation of a waste dump in the city, the children produced posters about the importance of natural areas. After these activities were carried out, the project organized education focusing on the empowerment of children and cognitive components of empowerment, through the following topics: a) The child and the right to social participation In this topic the children could reflect on their condition in Brazilian society, the factors that hinder their participation. They received information about the right to participation and its meanings. They had access to the document Child Rights and Housing and above all they were invited to make a commitment to participate. b) Environment, environmental education and sustainability in this part, the children could better understand each concept. The issue of sustainability was emphasized, so that they understood the various dimensions of it. c) Environmental problems: past, present and future this part was a retrospective of the socio-environmental problems of the region, so that they could understand how they have intensified over time and what the projections for the future are, considering the installation of COMPERJ d) The COMPERJ in the childrens lives they were given information about the COMPERJ and the implications thereof for the city and region. e) Strategies for building sustainability.
4 Conclusion
The training was essential for the children to organize themselves in the form of a core of environmental education. This is one of the major achievements of the project because it is a space where children can gather to discuss the situation, make proposals and interact with other children. The material produced in the essay contest was organized in the booklet and is being used as support material, both at school and in the core. From the core are working:
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The Center for Itabora did the mapping of the internal problems of the school and surroundings. The garbage and deforestation are considered the most serious. To minimize the effects, they started a campaign to encourage the planting of trees. Seeds were distributed and one is currently building a plant nursery on school grounds. In early 2011, they became part of the group that is drafting the Agenda XXI of the COMPERJ, along with representatives from government, nongovernmental organizations and civil society. The core is a reference in the region in terms of participation. Childrens core CIEP Nicanor Pereira Nunes conducted a mapping of the critical points of the garbage in the neighborhood and started a campaign titled AND YOU DONT HAVE GARBAGE? They held meetings, studied the topic and set up a strategy with the following steps: Production of materials (brochures and manuals with information), distribution for the neighborhood kids, holding a march and forwarding proposals to the government. Up till now were the first two steps. The marchs manifesto and production is planned for the month of April. Childrens core CIEP Dr Zerbini is conducting a campaign of caring for rivers and water conservation. The idea is to sensitize and mobilize the public about the care of the rivers and put pressure on companies to stop throwing wastes into rivers. In April 2010, the river located near the school overflowed, causing deaths and destruction of countless homes. After the creation of the core, a blog for the children was organized and from each school they wrote about their experiences and exchanged information about the work that is being developed in their schools. Additionally, they are available to provide consulting services to children from other schools who want to create centers for environmental education. Evidently, the overcoming of social and environmental problems arising from a model of development characterized by economic focus, a technological mindset and the non-inclusion of civil society, cannot emerge only through the realization of projects and campaigns. We have to think about changes in this model, because new visions still linger in Brazil. However we believe that initiatives like this that we present can be important for the creation of new cities, as they mobilize and sensitize the participants regarding the environment and its problems. It can contribute to a better understanding of the nature of existing problems and prepare for interventions. To the extent that the work has continued the children will be able to act on the structural mechanisms that produce unsustainable cities. Finally, the children of the project are excelling in school and working spaces: churches, scout groups. The most emblematic case is that of the CIEP Pascoal Carlos Magno. This school had occupied the last place in the performance evaluation of state government. After beginning the project the school has jumped to 10. Children participating in the project were rated among the best in the region in 2010. In addition, the text of the compositions produced by them were translated into French and presented at the Alliance Franaise of

Niteri, in the celebrations of the International Year of Brazil in France. There is an increased self-esteem and a greater desire to participate.
References
[1] Dermatin, Zelia Brito Fabri, Faria, Ana Lcia Goulart, Prado, Patricia Dias. Infancy reserch and oral history. In: Towards a culture of childhood, the research methodologies with children. Campinas: Authors Associates, 1996. book [2] SORRENTINO, Marcos; Portugal, Simone; Viezzer, Moema. A educao ambiental de jovens e adultos luz do Tratado de Educao Ambiental para Sociedades Sustentveis e Responsabilidade Global. La Piragua Revista Latinoamericana de educacin y poltica, v.2, p. 93-108, 2009- paper in a journal [3] Wintersberger, H. Children in modern society: rights, citizenship policies. In: G. Pfeffer and D. Behera (eds) Child and Order Complex. Delhi. p 144-168. paper in a journal [4] Castro, Lucia Rabello (org) Subjectivity and citizenship: children, youth and cities. Rio de Janeiro: 7 Letras, 2001 book [5] Lansdowne, Gerison. Promoting participation children in democratic decision making, UNICEF, 2001. Report [6] Sing, Waresh and Titi, Vangile. Empowerment for development sustainable. Halifax: Publication Ferwood. 1995. book [7] Avila Neto, D. Simes. Empowerment: a current issue of equity in the project in Brazil: Brazilian Archives of Psychology, n. 8, out-Dec. 1998 p.14-21. book [8] Wacquant, Loic J. D. The Wretched of the city book [9] Gohn, Maria da Gloria. Management Councils and sociopolitical participation. Sao Paulo: Cortez, 2001 book [10] Ander-EGG, Ezequiel. Participacin Ciudadana de la socioedad civil and leadership; Cycles, n.1, 1987 paper in a journal [11] Boff, Leonardo. Saber cuidar: tica do humano compaixo pela terra. Petrpolis. RJ: Vozes.1999. Virtudes para um outro mundo possvel. Petrpolis: Vozes, 2005. 3v book
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Reducing greenhouse gases using the pay-as-you-throw (PAYT) system

J. H. Kim
Seo-Kyeong University, South Korea
Abstract
According to many meteorologists, the annual temperature increase brought about by greenhouse gases (GHG) can heighten the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. These changes will likely be accompanied by a continual rise in sea levels, and may exacerbate already existing natural hazards. Lots of GHG are emitted from waste transportation by trucks, waste combustion in incinerators, and waste decomposition in landfills. Meanwhile, waste collection fee systems in many countries rely heavily on public expenses, resulting in a huge generation of waste. The author argues that a flat waste collection fee system through taxation represents a kind of subsidy that will allow consumers to generate more waste and more GHG emissions. In relative terms, the data from experience regarding the pay-as-you-throw (PAYT) system in the United States can be used to understand the ambiguous relationships between GHG emissions, climate change, and waste generation. Based on data analysis of the PAYT system in US, this paper attempts to develop a sustainable garbage collection and recycling method from the point of view of GHG emissions reduction. Keywords: greenhouse gases, garbage collection fees, recycling methods, waste management, pay-as-you-throw, volume-based-garbage-collection-fee.
1 Introduction
For many wastes, landfill is the largest route for disposal throughout the world. The major advantage associated with the landfilling of wastes is the low cost compared with other treatment options incinerating, composting, and recycling. It is also recognized that many other waste treatment and disposal options require a final disposal route for the residues to be landfilled. However, it

should be remembered that landfilling is not the final disposal method anymore, since most landfill sites are now sources of pollution with uncontrolled leakages and gases.
2 Landfill gas and methane (CH4)

Landfill gas, in particular, can be hazardous since the largest component, methane (CH4), can reach explosive concentrations. Landfill gas methane is also a greenhouse gas that has 2030 times the effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) in instigating the problems of global warming. Waste treatment activities are sources of greenhouse gas emissions and landfills accounted for approximately 24% of total US anthropogenic methane emissions in 2005. Landfill methane is the largest contribution of any methane source in the United States, and American landfills emit an estimated 7% of the worlds anthropogenic methane [1]. With global warming, a temperature increase of merely a few degrees would cause the landfill methane to volatilize and burp into the atmosphere. This would further raise temperatures, which would release more methane, heating the land and seas even more. Similarly, a massive release of CH4 from methane clathrate in the ocean could cause rapid warming, according to the clathrate gun or methane burp hypothesis [2]. One researcher has stated We can reduce our CO2 emissions from fossil fuels but we could not reduce methane emissions once they started, huge natural forces would take over and change our world [3]. Utilizing this basis of argument, the present study reviews the changes between waste landfill and climate change in a pay-as-you-throw (PAYT) system. The author is especially interested in PAYTs effect on reducing green house gases (GHG) emissions.
3 PAYT in the US
3.1 What is PAYT? According to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), PAYT is the name of unit pricing or variable-rate pricing in a garbage collection fee system. It is also a solid waste management system in which residents are charged for the collection of municipal solid waste based on the amount they throw away. This creates a direct economic incentive to recycle more and to generate less waste. Traditionally, residents paid for waste collection through property taxes or a fixed fee, regardless of how much trash they generated. PAYT breaks this oldfashioned tradition by treating trash services just like other utility service, such as electricity or gas. Households or consumers pay a variable rate depending on how much they use the service. 3.2 Less waste and more recycling Most communities with PAYT charge residents a fee for each bag or bucket of waste they generate. Such systems are simple and fair: the less individuals throw
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away, the less they pay. Communities with PAYT programs in place have reported significant increases in recycling and reductions in waste, due primarily to the waste reduction incentive created by PAYT. Less waste and more recycling mean that fewer natural resources need to be extracted. In addition, GHG emissions associated with the manufacture, distribution, use, and subsequent disposal of products are reduced as a result of the increased recycling and waste reduction. In this way, PAYT helps slow the build-up of GHG in the Earth's atmosphere, which leads to global climate change. 3.3 Waste reduction and landfill GHG 3.3.1 Waste generation In the 1960s, the USs per capita generation of waste was 1.2 kg/person per day, and the total national waste generation was 88.1 million tons. Along with increased concerns over indiscriminate waste disposal, Congress passed a landmark legislation covering waste disposal called the Resource, Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) in 1976. The RCRA initiated the defining, separation, and separate disposal requirement of hazardous and non-hazardous wastes. The act was an innovative amendment to the Solid Waste Disposal Act of 1965, which was the first federal statutory measure to improve solid waste disposal activities. The RCRA has been amended several times since 1976 in the Hazardous and Solid Waste Amendments of 1984; the Federal Facilities Compliance Act of 1992; and the Land Disposal Program Flexibility Act of 1996 [4]. However, US residents, businesses, and institutions still produced more than 251 million tons of Municipal Solid Wastes (MSW) in 2006. As the population of the US has risen to 303 million, the amount of waste is now approximately 2.27 kg/person per day. The median family income level of the US, $58,526, is better than that of other average OECD countries. Nevertheless, few can deny that the US MSW is relatively over-generated in comparison to that of other countries. 3.3.2 Effects of PAYT on waste reduction According to Skumatz Economic Research Associates (SERA)s research, PAYTs effect on waste generation was a decreasing residential MSW. There was a 1417% reduction in weight of waste, with 811% diverted directly to recycling, and another 6% decreased by source-reduction efforts. The reports also found that an additional 56% may be indirectly attributed to recycling [5]. The research also estimated the tons diverted annually as a result of recycling, composting, and source reduction and the total tonnage diverted from landfills. The figures, presented in Table 1, show that the current PAYT programs divert approximately 17.5% of MSW from landfills annually. According to the related experience of Metropolitan Seoul region, Korean PAYTs effect (i.e. Korean VGCF; volume-based-garbage-collection-fee) on waste generation was a decreasing residential MSW in 10 years. There was a 24.1% reduction in weight of waste, with 103.4% increase of recycling materials, and another 57.1% decreased by source-reduction efforts [6].

Table 1: US residential MSW tonnage covered by PAYT programs. Amount (ton)
Computation element
Residential tons affected

- New tons to recycling: 6% - New tons to composting: 5.5% - New tons to source reduction: 6%
47,407,500 (100%)
8,296,313 (17.5%) PAYT effect on waste diversion ratio from landfill 17.5% Source: Skumatz and Freeman [5].
Table 2: FY 2004s Policy performance of Seoul PAYT system in Korea*. After Seoul PAYT(2004) Landfill+incinerating 5,247tons/day Recycling 6,426tons/day Total waste generation 11,673tons/day Individual waste generation 1.1Kg/person-day 24.1%
Total new tons diverted from landfill
Before Seoul PAYT (1994) Landfill+incinerating 12,238tons/day Recycling 3,159tons/day Total waste generation 15,397tons/day Individual waste generation 1.5Kg/person-day
Waste reduction ratio by PAYT * PAYT or VGCF system started from 1995 in Korea [6].
4 Effects of PAYT on GHG emissions

4.1 Effects of PAYT on landfill gases As suggested in Table 1, PAYTs impact on the MSW landfill reduction ratio can be as high as 17.5%. Moreover, beyond its direct effect, PAYT can indirectly influence raw material acquisition, as well as manufacturing. For example, all products use inputs of raw materials, such as metal ore, petroleum, trees, etc. Extracting and transporting these materials entail the combustion of fossil fuels for energy, resulting in CO2 emissions [7]. PAYT can be influential not only for consumers but also for manufacturers. 4.2 Effects of PAYT on GHG emissions Landfill, especially, results in the release of CH4 from the anaerobic decomposition of organic methane materials. CH4 is 2030 times more potent a GHG than CO2. However, PAYT can be a catalyst for diverting a lot of materials to recycling instead of landfills. The material stream is easily changing from a waste-oriented system to a recovery-oriented system. This current seems to lead to less landfill and fewer GHG emissions. If the American MSW can be reduced by 17.5% by executing PAYT in every city and town in the United States, the
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reduced MSW amount will be approximately 43.9 million tons/year. This PAYT effect can prevent the release of over 25 million metric tons of carbon into the airroughly the amount emitted annually by 20 million cars, or 650 trillion BTUs (1 BTU = 252 cal), saving energy equivalent to 5 billion gallons of gasoline.
5 Effects of PAYT on GHG emissions in Massachusetts

5.1 Municipal solid waste: US vs. State of Massachusetts The total population of the US is 303 million. The median family income is $58,526, and the amount of MSW was approximately 251 million tons in 2006. This means that the MSW disposal amount of every average American is 2.27 kg/day. In comparison with the MSW data for the US, the data for Massachusetts are something different [8]. The total population of Massachusetts is 6.4 million residents. The median family income is $74,464, and the amount of MSW was 5.8 million tons in 2006. This means the MSW disposal amount of every average Massachusetts resident is 2.49 kg/day. Table 3: Municipal solid waste data on US vs. Massachusetts. 303,000,000 (303 million residents)
Population US (2006)
Median Family Income $58,526 (average family size=3.20) MSW Population 251,000,000 (251 million tons of MSW) 2.27 kg/person-day 6,400,000 (6.4 million residents)
MASS (2006)
Median Family Income $74,463 (average family size=3.17) MSW Disposal* 5,829,753 (5.8 million tons of MSW) 2.49 kg/person-day
*) MSW = domestic transfer 4,960,715 + exporting 1,600,000 ton/yr MSW Disposal = incineration 3,221,869 + landfills 2,607,884 ton/yr (+ ash & sludge residuals etc. 869,038 ton/yr) Source: MA documents, 2006; US Census, 2006; US EPA, 2006 [1012]. Based on the level of income, Massachusetts MSW disposal can be estimated at 2.49 kg/person-day. Although the amount is more than the US average, it is relatively less than expected. Both the exporting and domestic landfill amounts to 4,207,884 tons/year, which is very similar to the US landfill ratio of 64%.

5.2 Todays Massachusetts PAYT
In 1995, Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) made a state-level decision to promote a flexible PAYT program that allows each community to develop a program that fits its individual circumstances. Massachusetts owes its high record of success to informative outreach and educational programs that provide municipal decision-makers with the tools they need to understand how PAYT programs work. The other important example of the state governments support of municipalities is the PAYT Grant Program, which offers grants to qualified municipalities instituting a new PAYT program [12]. As of 2006, 120 of the states 351 municipalities had implemented a PAYT program (34.2%).
5.3 Estimating PAYTs effects on metro Boston

Recently, most scientists have come to agree that the changes in the atmospheric GHG abundance alter the energy balance of the climate. However, it is difficult to verify many of climate change hypotheses in relation to carbon dioxide, methane, and other GHG. The scientific community has not reached a consensus on the percentage at which each GHG becomes harmful or has deteriorative effects on climate change. We do not know how much the climate will change, at what rate it will change, or even what the exact effects of this change will be on the climate. In the Climates Long-term Impacts on Metro Boston (CLIMB) model, total property and contents damages due to relative sea level rise (SLR) over the next 100 years could range from $20 billion to $94 billion if there are no adaptive responses. Most ocean cities should invest a lot of money to strengthen infrastructure such as city drainage systems so that they can withstand more intense rainstorms. In this context, we have to reconsider all possibilities of climate change disaster prevention by reducing GHG. Among these possibilities, PAYT is an easily and cheaply implemented system that can reduce GHG, including methane. 5.4 Forecasting PAYT value in metro Boston As described by the CLIMB model, most coastal cities will suffer from higher flood risks in the near future. With climate change, higher temperatures and changing precipitation patterns can occur. These changes will likely be accompanied by a continual rise in sea levels, and may exacerbate already existing natural hazards. In this context, can a way be found to reduce GHG emissions at low administrative burdens? One hundred and twenty innovative communities in Massachusetts are already trying to find the way using their PAYT system. This system is now lessening carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide from hauler trucks, incinerators, and landfills by way of less waste treatment and more recyclable goods collection.
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Table 4:
Forecasting PAYT value in metro Boston.
Metro Bostons 101 Municipalities (2006) Non- PAYT 81 Municipalities of Metro Boston (if they do PAYT) - Reducing MSW disposal 468,251ton/year - Reducing Methane (CH4) 34,182ton/year PAYT Effect on Diminishing Climate Change Risk - Additional Residential Flood Damage* $24.2 million /year PAYT Value - Tipping Fee Reduction - GHG Permit Trading Value - Additional flood damage prevention Value $37.4 million/year $4.2 million/year $24.2 million /year
Forecasted Total Value (Outcome) of PAYT in Metro Boston $65.8 million /year (without additional cost) * CLIMB Model (Hypothesis I).
6 Conclusion
PAYT is already a verified method to reduce a lot of GHG by reducing waste in landfills. Because citizens pay their garbage fee according to their throwaways, PAYT can reduce a lot of landfill materials without a lot of additional cost. Moreover, free collection on recyclable materials can give strong incentives for ordinary citizens to participate in the system. If most Americans participate in PAYT across the country, there will be a reduction of MSW of 43.9 million tons annually. US EPA says that the effect of this could be the reduction of approximately 25 million tons of carbon into the air. Fortunately, Massachusetts many innovative communities are already trying to find the way using their PAYT system. The system is now lessening carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide from hauler trucks, incinerators and landfills by way of less waste treatment and more recyclable goods collection. In the process of this research, the author found a lot of successful PAYT executive methods in many of Massachusetts municipalities. For the future, the various kinds of PAYT experimental policies implemented by Massachusetts state and local governments will be crucial sources for rewriting the American Resource, Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Furthermore, the old fashioned waste collection and disposal system should eventually be changed. The system should move from a flat waste collection fee system by taxation (political trick) to PAYT with free kerbside collection on recyclables (rational citizen participation). As Donald Kennedy said, We are undertaking a vast experiment with Earths climate. Were not doing it to test a hypothesisWere doing it because we cant help it. But since we are doing it, we can at least start behaving like good experimenters [1].
References
[1] Hill, M. K. Understanding Environmental Pollution, MA: Cambridge University Press, pp.166-167, 2004. [2] Schmidt, G.A. & D.T. Shindell. Atmospheric composition, radiative forcing, and climate change as a consequence of a massive methane release from gas hydrates. Paleoceanography 18, pp.1004-1005, 2003. [3] Archer, D. Methane hydrates and anthropogenic climate change. Dept. of Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago. 2005. [4] Williams, P. T. 2005. Waste Treatment and Disposal. UK: Wiley Co. [5] Skumatz, L. and Freeman, D., Pay As You Throw (PAYT) in the US: 2006 Update and Analyses (PDF), prepared for U.S. EPA and SERA, by Skumatz Economic Research Associates, Superior CO. 2006. [6] Kim, J.H., Renewing an urban waste management system in an energy crisis: the volume-based garbage collection fee (VGCF) system in Korea and USA. Waste Recycling and Management Research 13(2), pp.59-62, 2008. [7] Canterbury, J. and Eisenfeld, S., The Rise and Rise of Pay-As-You-Throw. MSW Management, Elements. 2006. [8] Lambert, J., Personal communication 2007-2008, PAYT director of Massachusetts State Government, USA. [9] Kirshen, P.H. and M. Ruth, Infrastructure Systems, Services and Climate Change: Integrated Impacts and Response Strategies for the Boston Metropolitan Area, Report to the US EPA. 2004. [10] U.S. Census. http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet [11] US EPA, http://www.epa.gov/epaoswer/osw/mission.htm [12] US Massachusetts State Gov., http://www.mass.gov/dep/recycle/solid
Section 8 Rural developments
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Assessment of a sustainable rural development model: best practices in Comala, Colima, Mexico
R. Zizumbo-Villarreal1 & R. I. Roja-Caldelas2
1 2
Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Colima, Mxico Facultad de Arquitectura y Diseo, Universidad Autnoma de Baja California, Mxico
Abstract
The approach to sustainable rural development in Mexico has been implemented since 2000 with the creation of the Rural Development Law (RDL). This proposal has been applied over almost ten years in different levels of management projects; national, state, regional and municipal, which have followed two types of planning processes: the first, a macroeconomic perspective that articulates projects with regional impact (top-down); and the second, a planning development view promoted from local communities (bottom-up) in order to have a direct impact over marginalized population, in both cases integrating environmental and ecological assessment of natural resources. The RDL also calls for coordination and convergence of different sector interests to achieve multiple objectives of projects. Such approach takes into account social, economic, environmental, technological and political-institutional aspects to assess development proposals. From this perspective, the present study aims to set the framework of Sustainable Rural Development in Mexico and to assess the achievements and shortcomings of the RDL model based on available information from best practices reported to the National Network of Sustainable Rural Development database 2006-2009 for the State of Colima, Mexico. Finally, results are demonstrating little achievements related to the integration of social organizations, better management practices and technical training levels. Keywords: sustainable development, territorial approach, rural development, resource management.
1 Introduction
The rural development framework (RD) has kept on modifying as the conditions in rural areas have become more complex and diverse. Such is the case of the Green Revolution, which emerged as an economical modernizer thought, trying to incorporate rural population to the national development from the 1950s to the 70s, based on the scientific and technological progress of the agricultural production and the change on the industrialization and urbanization processes that the country faced on those decades. Even though this movement had positive impacts on the increase production, it was not enough to cease poverty on rural population due to the lack of land, employment and funding, coupled with environmental impacts of the excessive use of agrochemicals and the social impacts regarding the attempt of improving the populations wellbeing conditions [1]. In the 1960s, the Integrated Rural Development concept emerged, whose purpose was to have a balance between the variables involved in the RD processes. This model was proposed from different disciplinarian viewpoints involved with the agrarian and based on a wide social and governmental involvement, framed within a national and international context. Just as the Green Revolution, it also emphasizes on the eradication of poverty, facing the need to satisfy the populations basic needs through the increase of productivity and the distribution of the means of production [ibid]. Although it was an interdisciplinary approach, it focuses only on the agricultural side and not in a wide perspective of rural economy, where the territory and other productive and human settlement activities act together, in addition of having multidisciplinary formulation elements and elements of integral analysis of variables such as social, agronomical, environmental, political and of institutional character, which places it in the agricultural sectorial management of rural areas. The Sustainable Development (SD) concept arises from the international meetings regarding the environment and development (1972 and 1992), which arouse the interest and the need to incorporate ecological and environmental issues to the development of productive activities in both urban and rural life. As a result of this movement comes the SD proposal paradigm that will also be applied to the urban, rural, and natural resources management development. This proposal considers three main lines of action: the economical, the environmental and the social, that under a holistic vision can address complex problems seamlessly. This perspective joins the concept of RD during the 1990s in developed countries, and from there, adapts to the Latin-American context, to be called Sustainable Rural Development (SRD). The singularity of this proposal is the integration of territory as the main part in which a series of historicalcultural, economical, social, political-institutional and environmental processes are developed, and that it is subsequently called Sustainable Rural Development with a Territorial Approach (SRDTA). The SRDTAs strategy takes its roots from the LEADER program (Liaisons entre Activits de Developement de l'Economie Rural). The programs proposal takes into account in its planning framework the diversity of the territories
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integrating the European Union; and as such promotes the communitys involvement on the planning and management processes, which also implied the strengthening of the institutional linkage of the local areas and the productive transformation. The LEADER program has been integrated and adjusted to the Latin-American context, there is the work done by Schejtman and Berdegu [2] and by Seplveda et al. [3], Boisier [4] and Carton de Grammont [5]. Within the Latin-American frame, Miranda and Matos [6] clearly state the way they incorporate sustainability to the model through their different dimensions, which coupled with the territorys attributes are going to give form to the SRD concept with a territorial approach, that in Mexicos case is made explicit in the projects, plans and programs evaluation criteria. The dimensions are as following; a) Environmental: part in which every place counts with a determined ecosystem, with different types of renewable and non-renewable resources and that its sustainability in time will depend on their quality and its renewable capacity, in addition to the soils conservation, relief and weather; b) Economical: contemplates the general economical dynamic and considers the economical-commercial relations in the territorys context; the productive structures; the relative weight of the productive sectors, the productive chains and the relevant economical complexes; the conditions and the infrastructures offer (transport, energy and communication); the economical logistic, the competitive advantages and the potentialities or opportunities that the market offers; c) Technological: studies the dominant technological pattern in the territory and the level of general productivity differentiated by economical sectors or segments. It describes, qualitatively, the critical points, shortcomings and demands that affect the productivity and compromise the quality of the products, aiming for a production raise associated to the environmental sustainability (ecosystem adequacy). Also forming part are the rural extension, the innovation and scientific and technological training linked to the academy and the rating of the existing human resources; d) Social: considers the populations socio-demographic characteristics; the growths structure and trends, social relations, employment, rents structure, the citizenship, the offer and quality if the social infrastructure and public services, work relations; e) Cultural: it includes an anthropological analysis of the social groups that form each territory, including their different historical-cultural, artistic, and craft manifestations. It seeks to understand, among others, the common cultural identity and its different manifestation forms (culinary, production and marketing), religious, ethical and moral values, customary rules, the various forms of relation both internally and externally to the territory, the existing solidarity and cooperation networks; f) Political-institutional: it is linked with the practice of the local power and the external relations established with distinct levels of power; it includes the political system analysis and the prevailing power structure, of the social actors and their interests, of the State organizations and society. While discussing the integration of the Rural Territory concept, both authors refer it to those spaces in which one or more human settlements linked with one another are to be found, where productive units of distinct sizes,

division of labor and production and consumption chains are observed. The RT can be bounded by a micro-basin, bioregion, micro-region or to a group of municipalities that, nonetheless, put at the disposal of the observer a unique natural and cultural identity. Therefore, the environmental and the geographical space consolidation will depend on achieving its social and territorial cohesion, where social cohesion is understood as the expression of the rural community and the national societies integrated by equity principles, solidarity, social justice and territory belongingness. It emerges as a challenge to achieve the rural economys inclusion and integration, both in its internal dynamics as in its relation with the national and global economy. Territorial cohesion is understood as the integration of spaces, resources, economies, societies and institutions, intertwining and modeling regions; territoriality that eases the definition of RD public politics, environmental management and human settlements. As particularities of the TA, the following points are considered: 1) Part of the territorys heterogeneity; 2) Recognizes that in the RT an urban dimension which needs to be synergistically integrated exists; 3) Admits that the rural is no longer synonymous with the agricultural, as its productive activities diversify and its socioeconomic structure modifies; 4) Considers the diversity of functions (economical, social, cultural) that a natural system has, the multiple use of resources and its impact on social and economic systems; 5) Indicates the territory as a social construction of itself over the time as from its history, culture and institutions that give it its specificity and that manifest in different appropriation forms of NR, products and landscapes of each location; 6) Sustainable management of the environment and NR as central element of the poverty reduction strategies; 7) Institutional change in the land management, move from a sectorial to an integrated, concurrent and coordinated management; 8) Establishes institutional mechanisms that generate options for a participatory system that allows a consistent planning commensurate with societal demands. Under this reference framework, the adaption to the Mexican context of the European and Latin-American paradigm is realized, achieved with the publication of the Sustainable Rural Development Law (SRDL) to begin in 2001 [8]. The changes show a great progress compared with the previous RD concepts and in the institutional operation integrated in a sectorial manner, which still shows signs of delay in its implementation through a coordination, concurrence and sectorial entailment, making it difficult to assess despite having almost 10 years of operation, well exemplified by the RENDRUS projects case.
2 Sustainable rural development in Mexico

The SRDL lays the foundations for the national RD as state policy, where the reference points for a comprehensive vision of the SRDTA that allows the active participation of rural society with concurrence and sectorial coordination, as well as with the authorities of the three government levels and according to the environment in which it develops in a decentralized manner, are considered fundamental [7].
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The project is structured over four lines of action that provide the basis of the territory use as a unit of multidimensional and multi-sectorial management that integrates different types of capital: social, human, economic and natural, thus aiming to achieve greater social commitment, equity, plurality and democratic participation, figure 1.
Land Management
Social Capital Development
Economic Development Natural Capital Development Capital Development
Sustainable Rural Development
Figure 1:
Sustainable rural development lines of action.
The RD is then presented as an alternative to improve the living standards through the development of productive activities, generation of reliable and appropriate information, a scientific, technical and technological development through the application of technology transfer packages designed according to the territorial and cultural needs with better public services, health, housing, culture, education, recreation in a democratic environment where social involvement is based on family. This alternative focuses on the capacity building of the rural sector population with a two-way impact: the first, to influence in assistance programs to attack poverty with un-repayable resources; and the second, on business development programs oriented to the generation of employment and self-employment sources. Regarding the companies, the diversified production in primary activities is promoted: agriculture, livestock, forests, extractive, fishing and aquaculture, as well as agribusiness, industry, crafts, environmental services and tourist and recreational services. With this, the broadening of the RD concept towards the non-agricultural activities is intended. This vision pretends to achieve in a short term the mentality change and the rural populations interest to achieve an equitable distribution of the value networks income and a better performance in the sectorial relations that promotes poverty eradication [ibid]. The territory under this Mexican version is limited to the political and institutional management structure based on a national, state, district and municipal system, operating the RD planning in two directions: bottom-up through the planning of community projects supported through the municipal

management derived from a territorial municipal diagnostic and articulated with the SRD municipal plans, where it is possible that some of them incorporate the district planning based in the system-product that tries to see the productive linkages around a product produced in different territories, such as the case of coffee, coconut and lemon in the state of Colima, Mexico; or as the shared management of a resource such as water or forests through micro-basins or bioregions, exemplified in the structure of Figure 2.
Councils Management Level Public and Private Participation All States
Sustainable Rural Development Mexican Council Sustainable Rural Development State Council Sustainable Rural Development District Council Sustainable Rural Development Municipal Council
Regional State
State Irrigation Districts Municipal Several Districts Communities
Figure 2:
Territorial management structure of the SRD in Mexico.
Economic supports to improve the settlements living standards are also contemplated in the model: infrastructure, housing, urban equipment, municipal public services and the regional infrastructure required for the production through Concurrent Special Programs between the sectorial institutions and the three government levels [8]. The territory, like in the general model, develops according to its social and spatial cohesion based on its own characteristics with their base on the culture, which is the result of the environments and societys interaction through the different institutions that make it easier to establish different types of interactions with other territories. In Figure 2, different planning scales are presented, where the communal corresponds to the systems first step in gradually integrating with other levels. The case of the Sustainable Rural Development National Network (RENDRUS) projects exemplifies it; some have become part of District Projects (Irrigation Districts) totaling several producers located in different municipalities, such as the case of coffee producers in Colima.
3 Methodology
The work is based on the review of 55 successful RENDRUS cases for the 20062009 period presented in the state of Colima. For this, an annual database was built, where the information of the annual RENDRUS events was captured. It is relevant to mention that, even though all participants are asked to fulfill the content requirements, at the moment of integrating the material in PowerPoint
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presentations or in text versions, not all present complete data. The information provided by the enterprises companies is based on a mainly qualitative evaluation of their achievements for the year they are competing, although there are also cases where quantitative information is presented. The projects participate in three categories: first, primary production; second, transformation and marketing of the primary production/primary production transformation and marketing; and third, services and nonagricultural industry. The participants must belong to the Desarrollo Rural de Alianza Contigo program and their projects must meet the following points: name, location, background, objectives, production process, the groups organization chart and received training, marketing, impacts, future perspectives, success and adverse factors. The evaluation of projects considered best practices is based on six criteria, which coincide with the RENDRUS reference framework concepts. It is worth mentioning that, at the time of the study, the responsible institutions did not count with indicators to facilitate the objective evaluation and the proposals systematic monitoring. However, the contribution of the enterprises selfassessment provides a feedback for multiple management of projects. The base criteria are: I. Technological and Productive Innovation: The Technology used in this project is allowing the production costs reduction and providing a better quality product. Considers it an innovative technology suitable to the area conditions; II. Organization and Administration: Participation and involvement from project members exist. They regularly meet to define their strategies. They keep production and accounting records; III. Quality, Surplus Value and Market Development: the projects offered products and services generate surplus value, have quality control and capture an increasing number of satisfied customers/clients; IV. Technical Training and Assistance: project members have constant training, thus allowing the companys consolidation; V. Social and Economic Impact: the project is generating jobs in the community and/or is improving the participants income level and living standards; VI. Sustainability and Environment: the project does not impair or improve the locations site environmental conditions.
4 Successful experiences: SRDNN projects

The employment and wealth generation in the rural sector is the result of the rural enterprises successful operation. The empirical evidence shows that this companies success is mainly explained by its own management, namely for the efficient management of its resources, rather than for its endowment assets. This means that the key to success for enterprises is counting with the knowledge, capabilities, processes, organizational networks and principles that allow the best use of its resources RENDRUS-SAGARPA [9]. Such is the case of the rural family production units, which are predominant in the sector and that base their competitiveness in the family members work capacity and great flexibility, which makes them ideal for participating advantageously in agricultural activities not subject to traditional working hours.

RENDRUS was founded in 1996 in order to strengthen the identification, systematization and exchange of successful business experiences that rural dwellers develop around the country. It is about an instrument for rural entrepreneurs that allow them to learn from other entrepreneurs hits and misses and especially to reflect on their own experience and to identify improvement processes.
Rural development projects 2009
Recreation and services Hunting Manufacture Nurseries Extractive Fishing and aquaculture Forest Agriculture 2% 41% 5% 4% 5% 2% 33% 8%
Source: Made by author, Colima RENDRUS information.
Figure 3:
Classification of rural development projects; best practices in Comala, Colima.
As for the presented projects analysis, throughout the 2006-2009 period a total of 55 companies participated, 61% to the primary and 33% to the secondary sector, and 8% in services, which still reflects a lesser impact towards secondary and service activities (Table 1). Table 1: 2006-2009 Agricultural Forest Fishing and Aquaculture Extractive Nurseries Secondary/Manufacture Hunting Recreational/Services Total Participating enterprises. Companies 23 1 3 2 3 18 1 4 55 Percentage 41% 2% 5% 4% 5% 33% 2% 8% 100%

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One of the call requirements is the company established time; most of them are located in the primary sector in a range of 7 to 14 years, the ones in the secondary sector have an average of 12 years working, and the minorities are those relatively new located in services (Table 2). Table 2: Age of the companies Agricultural Forest Fishing and Aquaculture Extractive Nurseries Manufacture Hunting Recreational/Services Age of the enterprises. Number of enterprises 9 0 0 1 2 11 1 2 Average number of years 12.1 7.0 8.5 8.3 14.0 8.0
Source: M ade by author, Colima RENDRUS information.
In order to receive any economic support, the companies must be formally established. Most of them are of constituted by families, with a varied number of working partners. As shown in Table 3, the number of members varies from 6 to 14. Table 3: 2006-2009 Agricultural Forest Fishing and Aquaculture Extractive Nurseries Secondary/Manufacture Hunting Recreational/Services Average of partners per enterprise. Number of Partners 109 28 6 237 16 169 * 19 Number of companies 11 1 1 1 1 12 2 Average number of partners 9 28 6 237 8 14 9.5
Source: Made by author, Colima RENDRUS/SRDNN information. *Enterprises that did not provide partner information.
Of the six established criteria, from least to most impact in the companies, the following can be said: First, in the sustainability and environmental rubric for the evaluated period, most of the projects per year had fewer opinions over how they conducted the resources sustainable management application in primary, secondary and service activities. The projects that responded to this aspect were the ones involved with forests and hunting activities. Given that this aspect is relevant within the model, the different sectors must have guidance on the strategies they could include minimizing the environmental impact (Figure 4).
Environment and sustainability Social and economic impact Technical assistance and training Quality, aggregated value and market development Organization and management Technological Innovation and productivity 0 2009 2008 5 2007 10 2006 15 20 25 30
Figure 4:
Self-assessment criteria 2006-2009.
Second, on economic and social impact, the opinions were constant each year by the companies, which pointed out some economic benefits they had, even though this were not significant, either by increasing the products quality and production, or by venturing in other markets. Nonetheless, no reference was made on the improvements of the family living standards, on the collective or on their localities. Third; in all cases, the companies have received support for technical training in both production processes and in projects management, the importance of this rubric varies from case to case, where some companies have been able to escalate some projects or diversify their activities. Fourth; in terms of quality, added value and market development, the opinions consider having achieved higher quality products, and thus having higher income expectations, relevant in their companies, situation which was not direct in all cases, as some had high cost production and regulation problems or a lack of knowledge of the markets demanding that type of product. Although progress in this point has been slow, in some cases the products diversification or the venture into secondary and service activities were facilitated. Fifth, all companies considered crucial the organization and administration aspect in achieving goals, as it has allowed them the improvement of the conditions ranging from the societys formalization to the association with other companies, which demands review processes of production and organization
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forms, for which the key has been continuous training and update, given the dynamic market conditions and the management of technologies. Sixth, the productive and technological innovation is considered as priority, since it is reported as a positive aspect for the support they receive for the development of the infrastructure, buildings and the companies equipment, and the possibilities to increase the production and to improve the products quality. This aspect has also represented a limitation in the companies progress, especially in the starting phase. From the previous, it can be said that for both the start and the operation of companies, the strengthening of the organization and administration, together with the demands and dynamics that the continuous productive and technological innovation requires to increase the competitiveness, must be constant. However, the training of producers and service providers on clean production and sustainable management of their resources, along with the orientation of partners and companies on evaluation forms through economic, environmental and social indicators are required.
Entrepreneurial approach 2 Taste and preferences changes 0 Climate an environmental constraints Transparency and trust Entrepreneurial spirit 3 Business growth 6 Financing and funding Improvement of living standars 0 Tenacity and perseverance Group and collaborative work Experience and aging Markets Price 4 Technological innovation Product quality Cost of production 3 Product diversification Employment generation 2 Commercial relations 3 Technical and financial assistance Training of people Enterprise organization Infrastructure, equipment, land, animals, 0 5
10 9
32 13 18 9 26 12 13 9
12 17 32 24 10 15 20 25 30 35
Figure 5:
Successful factors in best practices 20062009.

From the success and adverse factors analysis, the following can be said: there is no doubt in the role that government and private funding aspects have had at the companies start, maintenance and growth, as well as with the role the organization, training, team and collaborative work they develop to be more efficient, plus the value assigned to the market infrastructure and knowledge for achieving goals. On the adverse factors side, it is interesting to note that they are practically the same as the previously analyzed, with the exception of the climatic changes that can significantly affect the production or the sudden rise or fall of the products in the market, affecting the companys possible success.
5 Conclusions
The SRD model instrumentation has been slow, talking about almost 10 years of work, which means a short time when referring to long-term planning and the management of sustainability. The efforts have focused primarily on the formation and organization of sustainable rural development councils (national, regional, state, district and municipal), as well as in its regulations and in the municipal development diagnostics that result in the rural municipal development plans and its particular needs. Another great effort consists in the execution of concurrent annual tasks that encourage the development based on the specific diagnostic of each municipality, district and region. The sectorial management of primary activities is to be found operating the fastest, and to a lesser extent, the secondary derived from the field. The aspects that still remain disintegrated from the practice are the relation between rural and urban systems. This means that the sectorial mentality still underlies the institutions that have not fully achieved the coordination and concurrence of integrative plans with common goals, as set by the law in the coordination agreements of the three government levels. This project has two paths: one towards the business and linkages promotion and the other towards the attention to poverty. In that sense, this work focuses only on a small part of the general project. The first case is based on the existence of an organization and of short and medium term planning exercises, but on the second case, a large population number is found, whose only horizon is the one set by its daily needs subsidized through poverty combat programs. There is a nationwide effort to keep a record of best practices, but it would be more efficient if from this an indicator base that allows a qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the group of projects were created. However, it is worrying that the official sector, SAGARPA, only has one evaluation system on the application of economic resources and sectorial administrative efficiency, leaving aside the projects that over time have not even been able to self-assess in order to learn something about themselves, both positively or negatively. Of all cases, two basic approach aspects stand out: the first refers to the poor training on environmental issues of the institutions, producers and the general public, as the experiences show that the sustainability still lies on paper and speech, and not in the practice, and that also, due to that lack of formation, information concerning the rational and sustainable use of resources gets lost, as
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it is not seen or detected by the stakeholders, delimiting the sustainability criteria just to efficiency processes and pollution. The other aspect is that this proposal pretends to influence in the welfare of the population, nonetheless, the people participating in the projects do not externalize the benefits regarding the individual and the collective, since only the economic benefits of the obtained resources are detected. Finally, a part intended for the evaluation of the administration in charge of operating the program, which is not included even qualitatively in the methodology, is included within the model.
References
[1] Herrera, T.F., Polticas pblicas para el desarrollo rural: estudio de los programas de la alianza para el campo de Mxico. Tesis Doctoral, Facultad de Ciencias, Instituto de Investigacin en ciencias Agropecuarias y Rurales, UAM, Mxico, 2008. [2] Schejtman, A., Berdegu, J.A., Desarrollo territorial rural, RIMISP, Borrador de Trabajo, Santiago de Chile, pp.17-29, 2003. http://www.rimisp.org /documentos /desarrolloterritorial.pdf [3] Sepulveda, S., Rodriguez, A., Echeverri, R., Portilla, M., El enfoque territorial del desarrollo rural, Instituto Interamericano de Cooperacin para la agricultura, San Jos de Costa Rica, 2003. [4] Boisier, S., Desarrollo territorial y descentralizacin: El desarrollo en el lugar y en las manos de la gente. EURE, vol.30, n.90, pp. 27-40, 2004. http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S025071612004009000003&lng=es&nrm=iso [5] Carton de Grammont, H. Nueva ruralidad o nueva sociologa rural?, Memorias VIII Congreso de la Asociacin Latinoamericana de Sociologa Rural, pp. 25, Porto de Galinhas, Pernambuco, Brasil, 2010. http://www.alasru.org/cdalasru2010/1%20trabalhos%20completos/mesas/H ubert%20de%20Grammont.pdf [6] Miranda, C., Matos, A., Desarrollo rural sostenible enfoque territorial: la experiencia de IICA en Brasil, Instituto Interamericano de Cooperacin para la Agricultura, Brasilia, pp. 17-21, Nov.2002. [7] Uribe, N.B., Desarrollo rural integral: gestin territorial de Mxico, Subdelegacin de planeacin del Estado de Mxico, Mxico, Online: http://www.monografias.com/trabajos37/desarrollo-rural-mexico/desarrollorural-mexico.shtml [8] Diario Oficial de la Federacin, Ley de Desarrollo Rural Sustentable, 7 diciembre de 2001. [9] RENDRUS-SAGARPA,(s/f), Red Nacional de Desarrollo rural Sustentable, http://www.rendrus.org/
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Irrigation and territory in the southeast of Spain: evolution and future perspectives within new hydrological planning
A. L. Grindlay1, C. Lizrraga2, M. I. Rodrguez1 & E. Molero1
1
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Granada, Spain 2 Department of Applied Economics, University of Granada, Spain
Abstract
The model of the regional economic development of southern Spain cannot be understood without taking into account intensive irrigated agriculture and its inextricable relationship with water availability. In this semi-arid territory, the need to ensure the efficiency of agricultural water use has been a constant, which has led to the gradual modernization of systems of resource use. However, the total water demand in the Segura River Basin and Almeria province has increased to exceed the limits of natural resources, resulting in a structural water deficit with an unsustainable trend, as is highlighted in hydrological planning. In this paper we analyse the shape, socio-economic and environmental consequences of the expansion of irrigation in Murcia and of greenhouses in Almeria. It becomes clear that the main shortcoming is the structural shortage of groundwater. The paper concludes with the idea that, despite this severe limitation, more productive irrigation could absorb the higher costs of a solution based on water from coastal desalination to solve the hydrological deficit and, in turn, can become a guarantor of the quality of the ecosystems, food security and good territorial order within the sector. Keywords: irrigation, water, regional economic development, new hydrological planning, Almeria, Murcia.
1 Introduction
The defining feature of the south-eastern peninsular of Spain, where the provinces of Almeria Murcia are located, respectively in the Andalusian

Mediterranean Basin and the Segura River Basin, is aridity. This is manifested by extraordinary solar radiation and scarce and irregular rainfall both periodic and geographic, although of a torrential character in autumn. These climatic conditions, initially adverse for development [1], have turned the region into a very productive and profitable area for irrigated agriculture, though with the limitation of meagre available water resources, which was resolved with the early construction and development of hydraulic works [2]. The regional development model has been highly dependent on water, both in regards to the agricultural sector and the coastal urban, residential, tourist and metropolitan areas. Agricultural development took place founded on the traditional ancient irrigated areas of the alluvial plains and experienced a significant expansion from the second half of the twentieth century in the case of Murcia [3], and in the large expansion of greenhouses from the end of the 1960s in the case of Almeria [4]. The evolution of these processes of expansion shows a tendency towards a steep logistical curve with a slight gradual increase at the beginning, followed by a stage of rapid development and intense growth between the mid-1980s and the end of the 1990s, until it reached a stage of maturity at the beginning of the new century, when growth became significantly reduced. This stabilization in the tendency for growth reveals, on the one hand, a slowing down in the processes of expansion linked in recent times to the grave scarcity of resources and, on the other hand, the later development has been balanced with the loss of productive land by urbanization [5]. In the case of Almeria it has almost reached a limit in occupation, as a result of the creation of a seemingly plastic sea of greenhouses which has become one of the most outstanding territorial transformations in recent decades on a global scale [4, 6]. In general, irrigation is inextricably linked to the availability of water. Without doubt, both the growth of irrigation in the region of Murcia and the spectacular proliferation of greenhouses in Almeria has moved away from the traditional Mediterranean irrigation culture adapted to its particular conditions of scarcity and has been supported, since the 1970s, by the use of subterranean resources which have accumulated in the subsoil. In Almeria this began with the governmental action of colonization, and also in the successful application in the 1970s of a number of technical innovations (sanding creation of an artificial ground, plastic greenhouses which contribute to the growth in productivity, to early harvest and savings in water consumption, etc.) which has led to an extraordinary economic development classified as a miraculous [2, 4], and has resulted in an agricultural revolution [7]. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) approved in the European Union, and adopted as the Spanish standard (through Laws 62/2003 and 11/2005), in addition to the good ecological state of the bodies of water, requires a new criteria of economic rationality in water management. Each economic area is obligated to provide analysis of the degree of fulfilment with regards to the recovery costs for water services, in order to increase efficiency and equity in their use. The economic analysis should include a long-term forecast of supply and demand and, where data are unavailable, estimates of the volume, price and cost associated with water services. The price of the water should be included in
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the program of measures, so that it is considered as another measure and is analysed in terms of cost and effectiveness [8]. Currently in the Segura River Basin, where the region of Murcia is situated, some 87% of the water goes to irrigated agriculture [9], and in the Andalusian Mediterranean Basin this percentage is a lower, but equally significant, 71% [10]. The inseparable relationship between water and irrigated land in regions where the scarcity of water is a characteristic feature, has forced a gradual modernization in the systems of irrigation, by means of regulation or re-use and rationing of water, and has led to its productivity becoming the highest in Spain. In much of the Spanish territory, access to water resources is the determining factor explaining the economic and financial viability of agricultural operations, their physical productivity, profitability and rural land values [11]. However, the development of the sector clashes with environmental limitations and the new parameters of economic rationality established in the WFD. This paper analyses the importance of irrigated agriculture in the territory and economy of the provinces of Almeria and Murcia, the efforts to improve its operation and the challenges faced by a fragile but very competitive sector. To this end, Section 2 shows the evolution of irrigated land and its socio-economic and territorial implications. Section 3 discusses the productivity and modernization of irrigated lands. Section 4 analyses the perspectives and challenges for the future.
2 Irrigation as a dynamic catalyst in the agricultural sector in the economy and its territorial implications
In general, throughout the second half of the twentieth century, the economy of the region of Murcia has mirrored the cycles of the Spanish economy. The changes happening in the economy of Murcia in the period 1971-1987 include a spectacular growth in the capital stock of hydraulic infrastructures with the works for the Tajo-Segura Transfer and other expansions and development, a prolonged and profound crisis, followed by a period of recovery coinciding with the incorporation of Spain into the European Union [12]. The infrastructural development which took place from the mid-1960s until the mid-1980s, coincided with the expansion of irrigated areas and the accelerated process of urbanization which took place in the region. Amongst the Spanish regions, Murcia has a per capita income below the national average. During the 1960s there was a dramatic increase in absolute and relative terms. After this period of strong growth, Gross Added Value (GAV) per capita had not exceeded 85% of the national average and since 2005 one sees a loss of position in the per capita production of the region. Between 1955 and 1975, the increase in per capita income was accompanied by a structural change characterized by the progressive loss of importance of the agricultural sector in its contribution to global production. During the hard period of autarkic and interventionist economic policy, the isolation of the country had negative consequences for irrigated specialized agriculture and the agro-food industry, the most dynamic sectors of the economy of Murcia [13].

The processes of modernization and specialization, which could already be felt in the nineteenth century, were interrupted, and a ruralisation of society was experienced. The population employed in the agricultural sector rose from 49% in 1930 to 60.5% in 1950 [12]. Although the reduction in relative importance of the agricultural and fisheries sector paralleled the national productivity structure, it is necessary to take into account two adjacent aspects of the model of structural change which from a quantitative perspective moved agriculture into a lesser position. Firstly, there was a rural exodus which took place from predominantly agricultural regions to the more industrialized regions in the 1950s and 60s, a situation which had an impact on the modernization of the techniques of agricultural production and, therefore, on the productivity of the sector. Secondly, after the crisis of the mid-1970s, the decreased capacity of the sector to employ workers led to an increase in rural unemployment and in unskilled workers, unqualified and difficult to place in other sectors. The spectacular economic development of Almeria, linked to the generalization of intensive agriculture, leads to what is widely known as the Almerian miracle [4]. From the beginning of the 1970s the growth of the economy of the province of Almeria has been higher than the national average [14] and, in terms of GNP per capita, Almeria elevated its place in the Spanish ranking from the lowest position, which it occupied in the 1960s to stand now in an intermediate position on a national level and first amongst the Andalusian provinces, having gained more than 30 percentage points [4]. In Murcia since 1995, the contribution of the agricultural sector to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and to employment has continued to decrease, whilst maintaining regional agricultural specialization. For its part, the greatest contribution to the Final Agricultural Production in 2004 was the agricultural subsector, with 76.4%, followed by livestock farming. The productivity rate for the agricultural sector in the Region of Murcia is above the Spanish average, due to irrigated agriculture. In fact, the survival of some agricultural operations was based on their transformation into irrigated land with higher margins than those of unirrigated land which, only in exceptional cases, gives a profit of over 900 Euros/hectare. Irrigated land has a gross margin per hectare of 4.4 times that of irrigated land, and is the basis for the production of the highest economic value (90% of horticultural and citrus crops, 75% of tubers, between 20% and 30% of vineyards, olive, fodder and industrial crops). The same species growing in an irrigated greenhouse reaches yields of up to eight times greater than that of unirrigated farming. Irrigation in Murcia is linked to a dynamic and competitive agricultural model and, without state aid to production, reaches net margins of more than 7,000 Euros/hectare. Such differences are based on the diversification of production, in the minimisation of climatic risk and the growing techniques used. In addition, irrigated land generates up to fifty times more direct employment than un-irrigated land on the Mediterranean coast and the ties between agriculture and non-agricultural businesses in the region generate 35% more employment over and above agriculture itself. In addition, there is a strong relationship between irrigated land and the agricultural food industry. The high agricultural productivity of the region explains the formation of complexes of agricultural food production of high
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importance, which places Murcia as a leader in conserved vegetable industries and in pre-prepared fruit and vegetable products. In some municipalities the weighting of the agricultural food industry in local production is six times greater than that of the average in the Spanish economy. In Murcia since 1995, the contribution of the agricultural sector to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and to employment has continued to decrease, whilst maintaining regional agricultural specialization. For its part, the greatest contribution to the Final Agricultural Production in 2004 was the agricultural subsector, with 76.4%, followed by livestock farming [15]. The productivity rate for the agricultural sector in the Region of Murcia is above the Spanish average, due to irrigated agriculture. In fact, the survival of some agricultural operations was based on their transformation into irrigated land with higher margins than those of un-irrigated land which, only in exceptional cases, gives a profit of over 900 Euros/hectare. Irrigated land has a gross margin per hectare of 4.4 times that of irrigated land, and is the basis for the production of the highest economic value (90% of horticultural and citrus crops, 75% of tubers, between 20% and 30% of vineyards, olive, fodder and industrial crops). The same species growing in an irrigated greenhouse reaches yields of up to eight times greater than that of un-irrigated farming [16]. Irrigation in Murcia is linked to a dynamic and competitive agricultural model and, without state aid to production, reaches net margins of more than 7,000 Euros/hectare [11]. Such differences are based on the diversification of production, in the minimisation of climatic risk and the growing techniques used. In addition, irrigated land generates up to fifty times more direct employment than un-irrigated land on the Mediterranean coast and the ties between agriculture and non-agricultural businesses in the region generate 35% more employment over and above agriculture itself [12, 17]. In addition, there is a strong relationship between irrigated land and the agricultural food industry. The high agricultural productivity of the region explains the formation of complexes of agricultural food production of high importance, which places Murcia as a leader in conserved vegetable industries and in preprepared fruit and vegetable products. In some municipalities the weighting of the agricultural food industry in local production is six times greater than that of the average in the Spanish economy [11]. In the middle of the current decade the agricultural GAV represents 11% of the total GAV of Murcia and more than 23% of the GAV of the province of Almeria. Horticulture represents 52% of the final agricultural production of Murcia and 83% of that of Almeria, and fruit and vegetable produced in both provinces make up almost half the national production [18]. In addition the growth of the indigenous and, in particular, the immigrant population in recent decades is associated with this productivity and level of agricultural employment, whereby the work is often undertaken by illegal immigrants. In fact, the strong demand for labour caused by the expansion of horticultural production in Almeria, with its agriculture under industrialised plastic and in Murcia both intensive in capital and manual labour have been met to a large extent by illegal immigration, which has balanced the decrease in indigenous workers in the sector [18].

The modernization of the agricultural sector in Murcia and Almeria is closely linked to the opening of export. The balance of trade, in deficit until the 1990s, took an upturn thanks, primarily, to the strong expansion of horticulture. The agricultural balance of trade went from a payment rate of 82% in 1985 to 110% in 1999 and exports of final agricultural production rose from 30% to 56% in the same period. Furthermore, exports of food products made up 70% of total exports in the 1990s [19]. The payment ratio (export/import) of the agricultural food sector is very much higher than that of the total commercial payment ratio. In fact, since 2000, the region of Murcia demonstrates a commercial deficit, whilst the agricultural food sector maintains its surplus, even though this worsens its competitive international position [13]. In Almeria the percentage of the horticultural produce destined for export has stopped being lower than the 30% at the end of the 1980s, to be 60% in 2003, and both provinces, Murcia and Almeria, create more than half the national horticultural produce, with 26% and 35% respectively [18]. Irrigated land offers higher profitability than other forms of agriculture and has played a key role in the modernization of the agricultural sector. Despite the difficulties facing the country, the transformation began in Murcia in the 1940s with the policy of reserves, continued in the 1950s with its progressive modernization and increase in productivity and in the 1960s diversified production to meet the new demands for food. With the development of motorization for the extraction of groundwater, the irrigated areas were extended beyond the alluvial flood plains, in a continuous process, giving rise to a serious over-exploitation of aquifers. The huge increase in gross irrigated areas experienced in the 1950s and 60s is associated with the construction of large hydraulic works in the basin which provided a very elevated regulation (around 80% of the natural flow) [2]. Public and private investments made to improve the system of regulation and increase the availability of water were justified by their positive impact on regional economic growth. The improvements and modernization of irrigation systems enabled the attainment of higher levels of profitability and increased export capacity of a capitalized and intensive agriculture. In the 1970s there was a significant increase in the surface area of irrigated land, not only as a result of state action (post-transfer irrigated areas), but also the private initiative turned to the extraction of groundwater. Water demand from the new irrigated areas which were created with the supply from the transfer adversely affected the traditional water deficit of the region, despite that it was met, in part, with subterranean resources [3]. In the case of coastal Almeria, a series of technical innovations, instigated initially by state action and rigorously followed up by private initiative, such as, from the 1950s, the extraction of groundwater, the introduction of greenhouses in 1963 or the generalisation of drip irrigation in 1976, led to an extraordinary growth in horticultural production, which has more than quadrupled between 1975 and 2008, rising from some 670,000 tons to more than 2,900,000 tons [4], but has also led to a significant over-exploitation and degradation of its aquifers [7, 10]. The net irrigated surface of Murcia maintained a certain superficial stability over the general regulatory process in the 1970s, being in the region of 100,000
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hectares. Later, in the 1980s there was a period of development and strong expansion associated with the transfer. In the 1990s the net irrigated surface stabilized again, with the limited resources of the transfer for irrigation and the shortages caused by the droughts in the middle of this decade [2]. The works of the Tajo-Segura transfer and post-transfer (since 1979) allowed an increase in the surface area of irrigated land, which rose from 166,689 hectares in 1984 to 221,085 hectares in 1991. Such an increase signified a huge stimulus for traditional agriculture, which was subject to profound changes in cultivation techniques and in types of crop. The changes in techniques meant an increase in intensive farming and drip irrigation. In 2004 the irrigated land surface reached its maximum, due to the high availability of resources, coinciding with the registered extension of 251,121 hectares [9]. The various studies carried out up to now in the Segura River Basin demonstrate a variable evolution of the net irrigated area for the period 19802005 in terms of water availability and which has not surpassed the figure established in the last hydrological plan [9]. The difficult outlooks for agriculture, together with the recent economic dynamics clearly oriented towards construction, have led to the urbanization of these areas. The area occupied by greenhouses in Almeria has grown spectacularly from their start in the mid1960s, and the scarcely 4,000 hectares in the mid-1960s has become 30,000 hectares [20], becoming the Spanish province with the most surface area of greenhouse cultivation, representing about half the national surface area, and very much higher than the rest of the countries of the Mediterranean basin [4]. These widespread expansions explain their relevance in the territorial configurations of Murcia and Almeria. However, the expansion of the irrigated areas has brought with it, in general, serious environmental impacts, which include direct changes in natural habitats, over-exploitation of water resources, salinization and pollution (localised and diffuse) [21]. In particular, in the Segura River Basin, the most significant pressures on the surface water bodies, linked to the development of irrigated areas, include extraction of resources in water systems; hydro-morphological changes, regulation of the water system; pressures for the use of land, specific and diffuse pollution. In addition, the bodies of groundwater have been overexploited, which has caused seawater intrusion and diffuse contamination. Almost 10% of the surface bodies of water have been evaluated as at risk of not meeting the environmental objectives of the WFD [9]. On the other hand, the rapid and wide-spread expansion of greenhouses in Almeria has produced serious environmental problems, like the worsening of the water deficit and the over-exploitation and salinization of the aquifers, the production of vegetable waste, of plastics from greenhouses, packaging from weed killers and pesticides, and the general pollution of water and ground by the use of fertilizers, and pesticides. This is in the process of being resolved through large advances in waste management and the response to pollution through integrated production [22]. It is anticipated that the coastal aquifers of Almeria will reach a healthy state in 2027, doing away with over-exploitation and pollution, with the extension of the Campo de Dalias which would justify less rigorous

environmental objectives [10]. According to the facts uncovered, the recovery of the hydrological environment is going to be linked to the improvement in the efficiency (technical, productive and economic) in the use of water for agriculture [11,17] and in the adequate territorial organization of its land [4, 20]. The scarcity, lack of guarantee and low water quality constitute the main structural weakness and limitation of the irrigated land, as presented in the forecasted scenarios of current hydrological planning in the Segura River Basin and the Andalusian Mediterranean Basin. Despite these limitations, and as will be demonstrated later, the most productive irrigated land could carry the costs of a solution based on water from coastal desalinization which constitutes a guaranteed and quality supply proposed by current hydrological planning to solve the water problems [9, 10].
3 Water use, productivity and modernization of irrigated land

The total demand for water in the Segura River Basin has increased over the years with a growing intensity, until it is exceeding the limits of the existing natural resources, leading to a structural water deficit with an unsustainable trend [23]. According to studies carried out for the compilation of the next Hydrological Plan, the total water demand for consumption has risen from 1,750hm3 per year to 1,901hm3 per year and, specifically, demand for agricultural uses, which made up 80% of the total, now stands at 87%. In particular, the demand for water, linked to the expansion of irrigated areas, and established in the last Hydrological Plan as 1,660hm3 per year, has increased slightly to 1,662hm3 per year, due to the stabilization of this use [10]. At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the contribution of irrigated land to the final agricultural production is around 90%, despite only occupying 13% of the useable agricultural area. The differences in productivity are greater for different types of crop. According to data on covered crops (horticulture, flowers and ornamental plants), these carry most added value per unit of water (7.83 Euros/m3), followed by vegetables (2.09 Euros/m3) and it is worth noting that the productivity of these crops in the Segura River Basin is higher than the national average [11]. Productivity of irrigation water has risen between 1996 and 2007 [24]. Fruit and vegetable production concentrated on the Mediterranean coast maintains a high profitability and productivity, despite the difficulties of supply and the depletion of available water in the local area [25]. Thus, the need for greater efficiency in agricultural water use has been a constant in the semi-arid Mediterranean territory, with irrigated areas traditionally in deficit with their scarce and irregular water allotments. In those territories of the Segura with greater difficulties obtaining this resource, or in its distribution, improvements and the new irrigation techniques began to spread, which constituted the first antecedents of the modernization of irrigation. During the 1960s, the reduction of losses was considered through the improvement of the distribution network, the incorporation of new subterranean resources and the use of floodwaters. Later, a new distribution system was established and its
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complete automation and computer control. In parallel, there was a wide-spread diffusion of localized irrigation, at the end of the 1970s, from the coast throughout the whole of the Basin [26]. Traditional water policy opted for the transfer of external flows to the Mediterranean basins to resolve the age-old water deficit. Its action paradigm, from a supply model, was the Tajo-Segura Transfer, and this approach was maintained by the provisions of the National Hydrological Plan of 2001, which included the Transfer from the Ebro River. The change in this water policy and its paradigms of management, produced with the modification of the above mentioned National Hydrological Plan and its substitution by the A.G.U.A. Program (Actuaciones para la Gestin y Utilizacin del Agua Actions for the Management and Utilization of Water) in 2004 (R.D.L. 2/2004) [27]. This contained a series of Urgent Actions in the Mediterranean Basin to increase water supplies through desalination and improvements in the management and quality of water seeking independence from climatic influence with the massive desalination of sea water [7]. Over recent years, and as has been established in the WFD, Hydrographical Demarcations have been established, which incorporate the confederations, and which are undertaking actions aimed at optimizing existing storage and distribution infrastructures, of irrigated land and urban water supply, with particular attention to purification and re-utilization, as well as, above all, desalination. According to the A.G.U.A. program, the actions of the Autonomous Community of the Region of Murcia will create an increase of 204hm3 per year (with an investment of 876 million Euros) and in Almeria of 189hm3 per year (with an estimated cost of 352 million Euros). The government chose desalination instead of large inter-basin transfers, exchanging a very tangible and immediate form of environmental impact for the less tangible environmental impact of additional energy production [7]. Since then it has continued with policies of savings and modernization of the irrigated areas, making agricultural activity a more efficient sector in the use of water. The modernization of irrigated areas was among the agricultural and environmental policies of the European Union, as well as of the state government, but finally converging in the Ministry of the Environment, Rural Marine Affairs, with the actions of the Emergency Plan for the Modernization of Irrigated Areas (R.D. 287/2006) to alleviate drought; the Law 45/2007 for Sustainable Rural Development and the current National Strategy for the Sustainable Modernization of Irrigated Areas, up to 2015.
4 Prospects and challenges of irrigated areas

European Agenda 2000 sees multifunctional irrigated areas as one of the pillars of the new model of European agriculture, as it settles the population, orders the territory and maintains the rural area [28]. In Consequence, the programs of improvement and modernization of irrigated areas and their future planning are framed in a context of territorial order broader than the purely hydraulic and

incorporate parameters of sustainable development, settlement and employment of the population in rural areas. More than two thirds of the total area of irrigated land in Murcia has been modernized, using sprinkler or localized irrigation systems, to the point where the Region has come to be considered a laboratory of modernization experiments which has been successful in terms of savings and efficiency in water use, its regulation, distribution and control. Murcia is the region with the highest percentage of land with drip irrigation (77.31%), followed by the Canary Islands (73.94%) and Andalusia (73.67%) [29]. A significant part of this latter percentage corresponds to irrigation systems in the greenhouses of Almeria. However, the administration is obliged to guarantee water for irrigation so that the modernisation system works [26]. Nevertheless, the framework imposed by the WFD in Europe is leading to some significant limitations in the use of water to achieve the objectives of the good ecological state of the bodies of water and of the aquatic ecosystems, its subsequent maintenance and its sustainable use as a resource. To achieve these in 2015, the Hydrographical Demarcations are preparing new hydrological plans for the basin which should have been passed by 2009. The objectives established in the current hydrological plan proceed from the WFD (basically aimed at achieving the good state of all bodies of water and aquatic ecosystems and the sustainable use of water), as well as from the current Water Law which, besides supplementing the Directive, is already considering the adequate satisfaction of water demand for the various uses. Firstly, the environmental objectives are a top priority legal requirement for most water uses of the basin. The level of environmental degradation of a significant part of the aquatic ecosystems of the zones is serious limitations to the achievement of these objectives. Their achievement will lead to a restriction in the system of use, reducing the limited availability of water, mainly for irrigation, which will mean one of the greatest difficulties to face in the demarcations. For this reason, once the ecological flows and their annual and inter-annual systems are determined, a concerted process must be achieved, taking into account environmental conditions, socio-economic effects and the costs of the measures which are proposed during the next three cycles of planning (until the year 2027) for its implementation. The over-exploitation of aquifers is negatively affecting the ecosystems which rely on them and are leading to rising pumping costs for the users of an increasingly scarce resource Another of the objectives identified refers to the satisfaction of the demands and the rationality of use. However, particular attention is drawn to the limitations in the satisfaction of the demands of agricultural use due to the reduction in the quantity of water available in the basins [9, 10]. Current water planning intends to fulfil this shortfall with water from desalination. However, the resolution of this gap in water supply with the incorporation of desalinated water for the cycle of agricultural use will present greater difficulties than for urban or industrial uses. In order to take a decision on the best solution in the management of irrigation water, it is essential to determine a shadow price and take account of the socio-environmental costs, and
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consider the willingness of the irrigators to pay in order to guarantee the good state of the water ecosystems. Current water prices in the regions of the southeast are lower than their shadow price (between 0.06 and 0.21 Euros/m3), causing an excess in demand which could be reduced with the increase in prices. From this perspective, measures such as desalination or water markets, combined with an increase in prices, in both water from surface sources as well as subterranean sources, could solve the water shortage. The use of water from desalination plants is economically feasible for greenhouse irrigation in the coastal areas to the south of the Campo de Cartagena and for Almerias coastal areas. However, as the costs of extraction (0.09-0.18 Euros/m3) are much lower than those of desalination (0.52 Euros/m3) and as the hydraulic administration does not exert an effective control on the aquifers, it is difficult for the farmers to use desalinated water. Sustainable management of the aquifers would require public action and co-operation between interested parties in the zone [20, 30]. The difficulty of the introduction of desalinated water in consumption cycle (both for urban and agriculture uses) for its high cost compared to groundwater is causing the underutilization of existing desalination plants in Almeria, which are functioning at a level well below its production capacity (between 16 and 33%) and the review of the A.G.U.A. Program respect to non-construction or nonexpansion of programmed desalination plants [20]. Therefore, proposals for subsidized pricing to promote its acceptance among users should be considered as recommended [7]. Control of the over-exploitation of aquifers and springs is essential in order to achieve a sustainable use of the resource, but it requires a framework of open regulation to accommodate the local agents involved, and the commitment of the authorities concerned when necessary to limit the development of activities which endanger the objective of sustainability in the use of the basic resources. For this it is necessary to highlight the importance of social capital in irrigated areas, with its ancient model of collective management of water through the irrigation communities, which have become an international reference due to their efficiency and participative character [31]. In addition to the aspects considered, the development of an economic analysis is anticipated to include in the program of measures of the hydrological plan, in which the long-term supply and demand for water is forecast, to fulfil the criteria of cost recovery in the WFD and to increase efficiency and equality in resource use. However, in the current economic crisis, it is anticipated that the policy of modernization of irrigated areas and the huge investments necessary to implement the new hydrological plans and achieve the objectives of the WFD, is going to slow down [32]. Along with water related aspects, the future of the agricultural sector in the southeast depends on commitment to quality and innovation in activity, as key elements to maintain a competitive position through the differentiation of production and product identification with quality brands created for this purpose. The correction of deficiencies, like the strong differential between prices earned by the farmer and those paid by the consumer, forms part of the strategies aimed at strengthening the sector. In addition, co-ordination between

agriculture and the agricultural food industry is a key aspect for Murcia to maintain its position in these sectors [33], innovations which in the case of Almeria have taken decades to bring about [4].
5 Conclusions
Irrigated land, as a dynamic element in agriculture, maintains an important role in the territorial configuration and economy of Almeria and Murcia, despite the loss of the relative importance of agriculture in production. Irrigated land has shown the highest rates of agricultural profitability and productivity and has played a key role in the modernization of the industrial sector. In Murcia the large increase in gross irrigated area experienced in the 1950s and 60s was related to the huge hydraulic works. In middle of the last decade the maximum irrigated area was reached, and more than two thirds of this has been modernized, incorporating sprinkler or localized irrigation systems, and has improved efficiency in water use in terms of its regulation, distribution and control. In Almeria the spectacular proliferations of greenhouses from the mid1960s, along with other technical innovations, such as localized irrigation, have been based on the use of groundwater, similar to that in Murcia. This has led to an increase in the traditional water deficit in both basins, and to serious environmental impacts, which include the over-exploitation of subterranean aquifers and the endangerment of the ecosystems which rely on them. Scarcity, lack of guarantee, and low quality of the water constitute the main weakness and structural limitation of irrigated land, as presented in the future scenarios of current hydrological planning. One of the greatest difficulties in its implementation will be the process of agreement in which all the environmental, social and economic costs are to be considered, and the significant agricultural demands already existing in the basins can be addressed. Water from coastal desalination could be established as an economically feasible solution to meet the demands of the resource for its use in more productive irrigated agriculture. However the higher cost of desalinated water compared to subterranean extraction makes it difficult for irrigators to accept. For this reason, co-operation between interested parties in the area and public action to control overexploitation are essential to achieve change in the origin of water to meet the environmental objectives of the WFD. The future of rural areas in general, and in particular of the irrigated land of Murcia and Almeria, requires special attention, beyond its mere consideration as a productive agricultural sector in many senses. International competition will quickly become stronger, due to the progressive liberalization of the sector on an international scale. A multi-sectorial base of development will be required founded on the diversification of activities and the re-evaluation of existing supplies in the rural environment. Moreover, the multifunctional role related to the satisfaction of the increasing demands of the public regarding safety and quality of food, product differentiation, animal welfare and environmental protection; converts rural inhabitants into guarantors of these increases in quality and of good territorial order.
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Acknowledgements
This work has been initially funded by the Spanish Direccin General del Agua del Ministerio de Medio Ambiente by a project untitled Water, Engineering and Territory: The transformation of Segura river basin by hydraulic engineering. Also this work has been supported in part by the project P07-TIC-02913 Consejera de Innovacin, Ciencia y Educacin of the Autonomous Regional Government of Andalusia, untitled Intelligent system for the environmental impact assessment of human activities (SINTEIA).
References
[1] Garca, J., Garca-Latorre, J. & Sanchez-Picn, A. Dealing with aridity: socio-economic structures and environmental changes in an arid Mediterranean region. Land Use Policy, 18, pp. 53-64, 2001. [2] Gmez Ordez, J.L. & Grindlay Moreno, A.L. (dirs.). Agua, Ingeniera y Territorio: La Transformacin de la Cuenca del ro Segura por la Ingeniera Hidrulica. Confederacin Hidrogrfica del Segura: Murcia,2008 [3] Morales Gil, A. Agua y territorio en la Regin de Murcia. Fundacin Centro de Estudios Histricos e Investigaciones Locales: Murcia, 2001. [4] Aznar-Snchez, J.A. & Snchez Picn, A. Innovacin y distrito en torno a un milagro: la configuracin del sistema productivo local de la agricultura intensiva en Almera. Revista de Historia Industrial, 42, pp. 157-192, 2010. [5] Grindlay, A., Zamorano, M., Rodrguez, M.I., Molero, E. & Urrea, M.A. Implementation of the European Water Framework Directive: Integration of hydrological and regional planning at the Segura River Basin, southeast Spain. Land Use Policy, 28, pp. 242256, 2011. [6] United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). One planet many people. Atlas of Our Changing Environment, 2005. Online. http://na.unep.net/atlas/ [7] Downward, S.R. & Taylor, R. An assessment of Spains Programa AGUA and its implications for sustainable water management in the province of Almera, southeast Spain. Journal of Environmental Management, 82, pp. 277289, 2007. [8] Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy. [9] Confederacin Hidrogrfica del Segura (CHS). Esquema Provisional de Temas Importantes. Demarcacin Hidrogrfica del Segura, 2008. Online. http://www.chsegura.es/chs/planificacionydma/planificacion/index.html#eti [10] Agencia Andaluza del Agua. Consejera de Medio Ambiente. Proyecto de Plan Hidrolgico de la Demarcacin Hidrogrfica de las Cuencas Mediterrneas Andaluzas, 2010. Online. http://www.juntadeandalucia.es/ medioambiente/site/web/menuitem.a5664a214f73c3df81d8899661525ea0/?

vgnextoid=c00b8e2d2f5b8210VgnVCM1000001325e50aRCRD&vgnextch annel=ee8feb3d87605210VgnVCM1000001325e50aRCRD Ministerio de Medio Ambiente. El agua en la economa espaola: Situacin y perspectivas. Informe integrado del anlisis econmico de los usos del agua en Espaa. Artculo 5 y Anejo III de la Directiva Marco de Agua, MIMAM: Madrid, 2007. Colino, J. (dir.), Estructura Econmica de la Regin de Murcia, Cvitas: Madrid, 1993. Lizrraga Mollinedo, C., Ortuo Padilla, A. & Soler Domingo, D. La transformacin socioeconmica de la cuenca del Segura. in Gmez, J.L., & Grindlay, A.L. (dirs.). Agua, Ingeniera y Territorio: La Transformacin de la Cuenca del ro Segura por la Ingeniera Hidrulica. Confederacin Hidrogrfica del Segura: Murcia, pp. 357-434, 2008. Corts Garca, F.J. Crecimiento econmico y convergencia de la provincia de Almera. Boletn econmico de ICE, 2839, pp. 11-25, 2005. Consejera de Agricultura y Agua de la Regin de Murcia. Macromagnitudes del sector agrario, Direccin General de Industrias y Asociacionismo Agrario, 2005. Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, Rural y Marino (MARM). Estrategia nacional para la modernizacin sostenible de los regados horizonte 2015. Informe de Sostenibilidad Ambiental, Direccin General del Agua: Madrid, 2010. Online. http://www.mma.es/secciones/participacion_publica/ eval_amb/pdf/ISA_EAE_ENMSRH2015_210710_parte1.pdf Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentacin. Plan Nacional de Regados, Horizonte 2008, Madrid, 2002. Karaboytcheva, M.K. Los efectos econmicos de la inmigracin: el sector de la agricultura en Espaa. Documento de trabajo n4, Real Instituto Elcano: Madrid, 2007. Online. http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/ portal/rielcano/contenido?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_es /zonas_es/demografia+y+poblacion/dt4-2007 Colino, J. & Martnez Paz, J.M. El agua en la agricultura del sureste espaol: Productividad, precio y demanda, in Garca lvarez-Coque, J.M. (coord.), La agricultura mediterrnea en el siglo XXI, Instituto Cajamar: Almera, pp. 199-221, 2002. Gozalo Mesa, J.D. La gestin del agua en una subregin semirida: Importancia del agua como bien econmico, desarrollo hidrulico y territorial en Almera hacia un uso sostenible de los recursos hdricos?. Investigacin para la obtencin del Diploma de Estudios Avanzados. Programa de Doctorado en Urbanismo, Ordenacin del Territorio y Medio Ambiente, Universidad de Granada. Tutor A.L. Grindlay, 2010. Online http://digibug.ugr.es/ Oate, J.J. Regado y ecologa: exigencias medio ambientales, in Gmez Limn, J.A., Calatrava, J., Garrido, A., Sez, F. J. & Xabadia, A. (eds.), La economa del agua de riego en Espaa. Una perspectiva regional. Ed. Fundacin Cajamar: El Ejido (Almera), pp. 407-428, 2009. Online.
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The relationship between rice and the housing of rice-growers in the north of Iran
M. Yousefnia Pasha
Department of Architecture, Sama Technical & Vocational School, Sari Branch, Iran
Abstract
The rice ecosystem has not only shaped specific culture and life but also the form of houses and the structure of villages in the north of Iran. Rice is present in all aspects of the rice-growers lives. Villages and houses in this ecosystem have evolved which are bound to the culture and are sustainable, compatible with natural environment and also very beautiful. Indeed, in this rural context, inhabitants intimately interface with the context. Through this article, a complete description of some aspects of a rice ecosystem in part of north of Iran will be presented, and especially tries to find out the close relationship between the environment, climate and the use of construction materials from nature including jungle and rice field, manner of construction technologies, their livelihood, and economical aspects to create the outcome. This work will be beneficial to the villagers, architects, organizations, and all cultural, economical, foundations which are involved with rural development. Keywords: rice, architecture, rural architecture, Iran, Mazandaran.
Introduction
According to a text published by FAo, evidence of rice cultivation in Iran dates back to 100 B.C. [2]. Domestication of rice production was the main course to change Mazandarans nomads into settlers. The complexity of the rice production process and different rice application provides a base framework to shape the culture of these people. Rice farming starts at the beginning of spring and ends at the beginning of autumn. Therefore, Mazandarans farmers divide the year into two seasons,

spring and autumn. Spring and summer are working seasons, and autumn and winter are resting and evening party seasons. It is spring, garden of tulips, I dont want to die Summer is working season, I dont want to die I should gather winter food during autumn Winter is cold; I dont want to die (a part of folklore poem) Rice production is an exhausting process. It involves cooperation of all family members and friends including women, men and children. Rice is planted diligently by hand, in person. Work is subdivided into different parts for different age groups and genders among the family by different time of a day and seasons. Children are brought up in the heart of rice culture and civilization while helping out their family. Social activities of farmers also rely on working and resting seasons of rice planting. Rice planting methods, rice derivatives, method of rice maintenance and consumption besides networks of rivers and their branches for irrigation has affected architecture and the context of farmers villages. The book written by Darvish Ali koulaeeyan [3] is the only research about how Mazandaran inhabitants culture and lives were being formed when rice was just started to be cultivated in the beginning of civilization in the regions of Mazandaran and Gilan. It was illustrated through historical and linguistic standpoints. In addition, the development of rural architecture being shaped by rice culture will be addressed.
Methodology
Understanding the relationship between rice and lifestyle of rice-growers was my major aim for this study. I strongly believe vernacular and rural architecture has some useful instruction for new ones. For this study, villages in Mazandaran have been chosen since rice production was their primary industry. I have done a qualitative research choosing conscious samples of about 60 villages in 4 different regions in this province. All of the data has been collected mainly through direct observation and interview in addition to studying some written resources about this subject.
3 Rice: a cause for settlement and selection of a place as a village

The environment should have suitable soil, abundant water, and humid weather for rice growing. Jungle slopes and plains in Mazandaran with appropriate weather and water is an ideal place for rice production and for life. So, mountainous people moved to these places as soon as they learned how to farm. All social and cultural relationships, components and constituents, the context of villages and houses appeared to be related to rice-planting.
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Rice and texture of village
In fact, the context of villages is consisted of two main parts, rice field and residential area. These are affected by environmental and climatic factors. They are organized related to each other due to rice planting. 4.1 Rice field texture There are two main water supplies, the river and Annoon(dam). In villages, these are two main structural factors for rice fields context in addition to bordering and Nefars. 4.1.1 Sar-oo or river Water resources are important elements to shape the form of villages. Most rice planting villages are located beside large rivers as a main and natural source of water. Rice fields are formed along the primary or secondary river branches. This kind of water source is known as sar-oo. Villages are located next to rice fields. The aspects of these villages are usually elongated due to easy access to rice fields which are spread beside the river, Fig. 1. River and rice field of forestry villages which are topographic, usually are located in the lower side of the village. But in plain areas, rice lands completely surround residential areas, as shown in Fig. 1.
Figure 1:
A village and the situation of three main elements: (residential context, rice field and river).
4.1.2 Annoon (reservoir) Annons collect surface running water and rain water in autumn and winter agricultural seasons. The area and volume of these Annons depend on the area of lands which are required to be irrigated. On average, each Annon irrigates about 2030 hectares of land. Because Annons are handmade, most of them are located outside the villages where are near to the agricultural lands. Usually they are about at least 500 meters far away from residential areas. Between these zones, they are free from any construction and devoted to playgrounds for youth.
(A)
Figure 2:
Annon inside the context of village [3]. (AAnnon and position of surrounding avenues, river, houses and gardens.)
But some Annons are rarely located in the middle of a village, Fig. 2. Of course, their volume and dimensions are small which create a very beautiful perspective for the residential part of villages. Today, in addition to irrigation, these Annons are used as fish nourishment pools. Every village lends its own Annon and receives revenue for village development. 4.1.3 Bordering Along with flourishing of the trees and nightingales songs in the fascinating season of spring, rice planters begin to prepare themselves for work. Winter nights are good and spring days . (Part of a folklore poem) After New Year wishing for having a lucky year and simultaneously with interchange of visit, farmers start bordering. Flowing water is conveyed into a flat place. For this, land is bordered. These borders in fact, are contour lines of that land. It needs skillful experience to create border line in curvy shape and divide proper size for each pond. In addition, the exhaustive hard labor work is paid off by its pleasing aesthetic outcome, Fig. 3.
Figure 3:
Beautiful perspective of a rice field in the heart of the jungle in spring.
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Rice fields formed by these very beautiful borders at the heart of the nature and magic jungle of Mazandaran present marvelous and attractive perspectives. Besides this picture, songs of hundreds of hidden toads and frogs make dreamful and unforgettable moments for any viewer, especially in spring. 4.1.4 Nefar Rice can be endangered by pigs and boars at night time, and sparrows and other birds during the day. The responsibility of driving out sparrows and other birds from the farm during the day is not particularly hard work. Usually the youngest sons or even youngest girls will take care of the rice by spending their leisure times there during holidays. During the day, the father controls the amount of water flowing into the rice field, and also guards against other farmers robbing his share. He protects the rice field against pig and boar damage. He even spends all nights of the summer in Nefar. This custom of night protection for rice is called Shoupeh. ..Shoupeh is vigilant like a lover . (A part of folklore poem) A Nefar which is established inside the rice field is called Dashti-Nefar. Other kinds of Nefar are also established inside the house and beside the Tekiyeh (a kind of religious place), which are called kheneh-nefar(house nefar) and Sagha-Nefar respectively. Kheneh-nefar is in the porch of the houses and Sagha-nefar is a kind of mourning place. During the daytime, especially in the seedling and rice harvesting seasons, farmers rest in Dashti-Nefar, prepare daily food, have lunch and drink tea. They change their dirty clothes, wash their hands and feet in this place and go home clean. But if farmers house is not far from rice field, Nefar is not established in the field. In this case, all of the activities for cleaning the body usually take place in the house yard. Nefar is often a space which is completely open and there are no walls around it. It is usually built in two stories from the ground floor. The lower store level is an enclosed space and used as store or kitchen. The upper level is an open space and is used for resting and eating. The roof is mostly built as a gable roof (sloping roof) (Fig. 4). Dashti-Nefars are also built with wood like other kinds of Nefars, but they are built with a simpler technique and without any wooden decoration. It seems like a reasonable construction with simple
Figure 4:
Sectional drawing of Dashti-Nefar [3].

technique for those Nefars that are only used for one or two years However house construction technique with better strength and durability is employed for those Nefars (khene-nefar and sagha-nefar) that are planned to use for a longer life time.
Gathering ways of rice, basic steps toward architecture
At the end of summer and beginning of the beautiful autumn is the fruitful harvesting season. Production of larger rice seeds and hay with the best quality for herds is very important. For this aim, the harvested rice should not be exposed to rain. Farmers have empirical knowledge for weather anticipation which is based on natural signs. To protect the rice against rain by storing it as some small buildings named kouleh, Bene-kar and dare-kar. It signifies the general form and appearance of tombs in Mazandaran that are very similar to general appearance of Bene-kar. The way to cover the roof of Ben-ekar and Dare-kar is also completely related to the idea of covering the roof of the buildings with rice hay. They are also constructed with steep roof. A narrow trench is dug surrounding the Beneh-kar for drainage which prevents water from flowing into Beneh-kar, Fig. 5. In Dare-kar, it is constructed with an elevated wooden platform in order to prevent water from getting into the storage area and reduce humidity, fig. 5. Perhaps, the idea of making a platform for the house would result from this.
Bene-Kar
Dare-kar
Figure 5:
Tomb tower.
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Threshed rice or rice separated from its straw will be transported to factories to be husked. Usually, these factories are located inside the village or in the center of a village or beside the place of haunt for villagers which behave as haunt performance supplement, Fig. 6. In the past, Oudang (a water wheel) was used in a kind of factory to bray and husk rice. It was famous in Mazandaran. Flowing water has been used as a power source to drive its blades in Oudang [1]. For this reason, all of them were placed beside the rivers, Fig. 7. Today, Oudags buildings have been completely eradicated and these kinds of establishments are no longer found in Mazandaran.
D A
C B H
E F C M
Figure 6:
Haunt (neighborhood centre) of a village [3]. (A) Youth haunt B) play place for the youth C) old men haunt D) Religious complex E) Flail factory E) Old and big sacred tree F) Tomb tower H) Main street of village M) Local Shops N) Houses).
Figure 7: 5.1 Residential texture
A picture of Oudang building [1].
Residential areas are always distinguished and separated from rice field areas. Although these two are completely dependent on each other but the edge of residential part is perfectly defined and these two are not blended into each other. It is always attempted to separate houses from rice fields due to the presence of mosquitoes, and other insects and animals, and humidity. However there is a main road and secondary passageway linking from the residential area to the heart of the rice field area. Some of them have the capacity just for the pedestrians and some others have the capacity for herds and agricultural machines. In fact, the largest part of village passages network is devoted to this kind of activity.

5.1.1 House If we look at the rural houses, work and life are mixed together. Houses in this region are settled in the relatively large area because of climatic reason. It allows to fully utilizing wind and solar powers like. The house is divided by different variety of activities. In a rice growers house, it is divided by two main parts, front yard and back yard. Substantial activities, like the rice stalk store, poultry building, stable, orchard garden, vegetation, washing place and etc, are taking place around it. Houses are completely compatible with the climate. Most of them are built with local and natural materials like sod, mud, wood, and accessions of rice. Most houses are elongated along east-west axis to allow more surface areas facing south for solar heat. All rooms are adjacent to each other. Their doors open to semi-open space either in front of the house or other direction. This semi-open space is constructed with wooden columns and is the main space of the house. Besides it is the only space connecting directly to the front yard. It is emphasized to be a cultural and social place of the house. 5.2.1.1 Rice, house and customs. The autumn season, after the yield of harvesting, when the working season is just finish and leisure time begins. These leisure times are also used for recreational trips especially pilgrimage trips. Usually, wedding ceremonies are held during this season by putting a wedding veil in the house yard or rice field where they have been dried, Fig. 8. At the end of the wedding ceremony when the bride and groom together enter their house yard, rice is poured on their heads and bodies as a ritual symbol to protect them from bad spirits as well as a blessing. The main food of a wedding ceremony is also of rice like most days of the year. In addition to it, rice is also used as the original material to prepare different cookies for the feast and party. It is also used to decorate table cloths for the ceremony.
Figure 8:
Two types of wedding ceremony tenant with wooden twigs [3].
After celebrations and wedding ceremonies, it is also the time for someone who wants to build a house. Because the fundamental building material for a house is wood, cutting trees is also suitable during winter. In any way, housing will be a good entertainment to fill up leisure times. During the days, if men have no work, they sit in neighborhood haunts beside the main square of the village, inside the store and tea shop talking about daily events. At night, they go to each
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others house in early evening named Shou-nisht. During Shou-nisht, most members of a family, man, woman, and child would participate. Shou-nisht is performed in kele-si-khene where is the core space of a family. Men and women form their own groups and chat. Men sit at the upper part of the roomBala-kele-si- and beside a fireplace-kele-tash. Its the best place of the home. On the other hand, women sit in the lower part of the room-paien-kele-si- beside the kele and the entrance, Figs. 9 and 10.
kele si khene
Figure 9:
House and location of kele-si-khene [4].
Figure 10:
A perspective picture of kele-si-khene [3].
Kele-tash, a fireplace, not only provides heat for the family meeting to take place when it is cold but also a source to dry rice located under the gable roof. Kele-si-khene is a multi-function space. Sometimes it serves as a guest room. It also serves as a main living space for rice planting people. In this place the wife cooks food for the family. Family members eat together and sleep at night. A quilt is available in this space which is usually covered by a very beautiful quilt cover that is made by the wife. It could be used as cushion during sitting periods. Nowadays, this space is equipped with home appliances, like a television and sometimes refrigerator. This space is rectangular-shaped and it has often east west elongation to exploit better sunlight. It provides a good orientation for wind coming from southern mountain during the night and northern sea during the day. Its length and width ranges from 3.5 to 5 meters and the 2.5-3.5 meter respectively. In fact, these dimensions are the most appropriate scale to establish friendly, close and eye-to-eye social relationship, Figs. 11 and 12.
(C)
Figure 11:
A picture of kele-si-khene [3]. A) Men zone; B) Women zone; C) fire place.
5.2.1.2 Rice and social stratification. Possessing more land for rice planting means more yields and more income. Those who have more income surely will have other income resources, such as a citrus garden, herd breeding and poultry. They can buy agricultural machines and devices for themselves to assist in their job with better efficiency. They could lend or hire them to others. Since they get more income, they could have a better location in the village and a bigger house. These houses provide more rooms and bigger yards. They can employ more skillful builders to construct their home. Sophisticated wooden decorative elements and better built wooden fences are easily found in these houses, Figs. 12, 13, and 14. Therefore, in this way, rice has created stratification among farmers society which has a direct relationship with the shapes of these homes. So, rice-planting has created three classes of homes with some differences and similarities.
Figure 12:
House of weak class of rice-planting people [3].
First plan
Ground plan
Figure 13:
House belonging to middle class of rice-planting people [3].
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First plan
Ground plan
Elv. A-A
Figure 14:
House belonging to rich classes of rice-planter people [3].
5.2.1.3 Rice and house construction. Different parts of rice, including the stalk and cluster are not powerful enough to be used as porter elements in house construction. But they can be used as natural available building materials for different purpose. In the past, for this reason, different parts of rice were used in building construction as plaster and roof coverage. 5.2.1.4 Rice for plaster. One of the important parts of rice that is used in building construction is plaster preparation and plastering. Rice skin and the rice straw are blended with different muds existing in the region, including white, black and yellow, to prevent plaster cracking. Different plasters are produced; Gele-gouyi is the most common one. Rice straw or skin is mixed with layers (stratum) to increase the layers and provide better resistance against stretching and cracking. 5.2.1.5 Rice for roof coverage. The most important, fundamental and known application of rice in house construction is to use rice stalk for final coverage of a steep roof, named Galeh. These kinds of houses are known as Galeh-be-sarkhene (house with Galeh cover). Galeh is not fastened to a wooden structure and because of that it can be damaged after severe wind and storms, otherwise it could cause leaking at the ceiling and make some problems. Moreover, a great part of Galeh would decay every year and it should be replaced. This was exhausting work for the house owner since it needed to be repaired by themselves or by a skillful specialist. Today tin and asbestos are used instead. During rain, a tin roof produces a huge noise. Asbestos cement is very heavy and requires a strong support. It costs more to build and makes the building heavier. And a roof with the common kind of asbestos in this region should not be high or too steep which can change the traditional proportion of the building faade. Also, it is carcinogenic. But Galeh is light and does not need a strong roof-truss to bear its weight. During rain it doesnt produce noise at all and one of the most important advantages of Galeh is its excellent insulation feature.

5.2.1.6 Rice as decoration. Some farmers also make some furniture by using rice stalks along with its clusters. Besides, rice plant figures are engraved on wood decoration elements. Interestingly, sometimes a figure is being carved out and outlined at the void space between fences as a manifestation of top clusters, the shape of rice leaf and plant. Its like a reminder of a beautiful perspective of a rice field.
Conclusions
Rice has not only provided farmers in Mazandaran with an economical income but also a unique culture for the village community. Moreover, with its sanctity and different characteristics, this agricultural crop has drawn an integrated and consolidated life style along with architecture, especially housing. Besides, rural farmers do all of their work on their own by being helped from all of the family members and relatives to reduce cost expense. They have a routine and a definite plan for all seasons. Today, due to insufficient income from planting rice, most farms are sold to outsiders. They change the farms into gardens, buildings and housing. This situation has weakened the integrated and unique culture established in the rice farmers community. Rural inhabitants in this region essentially need to preserve traditional rice culture to cope with new lifestyles, but they still dont know how this important contradictory issue could be addressed. On one hand, they need to preserve traditional culture and architecture. On the other hand, the traditional one should be integrated with new standards of life and architecture. So, we should be eagerly studious in solving this problem which seems not to only to be in this region, but is a worldwide problem, especially in developing countries.
References
[1] Zargar, A., A prelude to Irans rural architecture recognition, University of Shahid Beheshti: Tehran, 1999. [2] Koulaeeyan, D. A., Sari and the beginning time of rice civilization, Shelflin publication: Sari, 2006. [3] Yousefnia pasha, M., A survey on Bandpey rural architecture and society in design direction, Unpublished M.A. dissertation, College of Yazd Art and Architecture: 1380. [4] The projects of the students of university of Mazandarans Art and Architecture College for village course (1), performed by following groups:A) Bagheri Hassan zati Javani, B) Manafi Torabiyan Majidi Ghassabiyan, C) Ghaem Assari Shiran, by supervision of Yousefnia pasha M., Mottaki M., and Seyyediyan A.
651
The use of donkeys for transport: the case of Khartoum State, Sudan
T.- E. Angara1 , A. Ibrahim2 & A. Ismail3
1
College of Animal Production and Technology, Sudan University of Science and Technology, Sudan 2 College of Veterinary Science, University of Bahr Elgazal, Sudan 3 College of Veterinary Medicine, Sudan University of Science and Technology, Sudan
Abstract
Although the use of donkeys is considered as backwardness, yet in Khartoum the use of donkey as a means of transport is not uncommon. This paper highlights the importance of donkeys as a means of transport in relation to uneven development in Khartoum. Questionnaire administered interviews and unstructured questionnaires were used in data collection. Researchers observations were also considered. The study revealed that working donkeys are either pulling carts (91.1%), or utilized as pack animals (8.9%). At the center of the city transport of building and domestic materials is most dominant purpose; as we move to peripheries water and public transports emerge as additional purposes. Most donkey owners (35.9%) originate from Khartoum State and 35.3% originate from western Sudan. They are categorized as low income generators with average daily income of (SDG 20.0015.00) per day. Most of them (89.3%) either attended primary education or are illiterate. The paper concluded that the more development the less demand for donkeys in transport. But the situation after the southern Sudan referendum seems to depend more on agriculture and donkeys. The current increment in the transport fees, high prices of fuel and banning the import of second hand vehicles will increase the demand for donkey carts, especially for poor dwellers. Thus, the socio economic factors have their role in determining the means of transport used in urban sites. Keywords: donkey, donkey carts, transport, socio economic, income generation, Khartoum, Sudan.
1 Introduction
1.1 The use of donkeys for transport The donkey (ass) Equus asinus is an important draft animal in many parts of the world. This animal plays an essential role in the economies of underdeveloped countries, Sudan is not an exception. The study of Fielding [1], revealed that donkeys can be used mostly for work namely for transport (riding, pack transport, or pulling carts) or they may be used for farm work and other jobs. He concluded that pack donkeys are a real option for the future as a truly appropriate renewable power source for the tropics. Other studies in developing countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa [25], found that donkeys are an essential means of transport to millions of people living below the poverty line and they are often a familys most reliable helper. The economic circumstances have their role in determining the means of transport. In Nigeria, Blench [6], showed that the devaluation of the Naira currency led to an increase in the prices of imported components; therefore, vehicles were difficult to maintain. As a result, many vehicles went out of service and consequently donkeys became popular again especially in rural markets. As reported by Pravda.Ru [7] donkeys become a usual means for transportation in Bethlehem as a result of the military conflict between Palestine and Israel. The results of other studies, [810] revealed that in most societies donkeys are often used by women. In northern Tanzania, Swai and Bwanga [11] found the majority of the respondents were of low education level or had no formal education. 1.2 Sudan development profile According to UNDP, IHDI [12], Sudan is considered one of the least developed countries with a Human Development Indicator (HDI) of 0.379, which gives the country a rank of 154 out of 169 countries. As reported in WFB [13], the unemployment rate was estimated at 18.7% in 2002. In the year 2004 about 40% of the population were below the poverty line. Sudans real GDP expanded by 5.2% during 2010. Robinson et al. [14] mentioned that while the oil sector continues to drive growth, services and utilities play an increasingly important role in the economy and agriculture production remaining important as it employs 80% of the work force. According to them the currency depreciates considerably before the referendum on southern secession, scheduled in January 2011.The Central Bank of Sudan intervened heavily in the currency market and the Sudanese government introduced a number of measures to restrain excess local demand for hard currency. 1.3 Donkeys in Sudan Sudan possesses a large and diversified animal wealth consisting of domesticated animals and wild life [15]. Equines are mainly horses which accounts for 784.5
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thousand and approximately 7, 5 million head of donkeys as shown in table 1 and fig.1. No data on mules is available. Located in North east Africa, Sudan was identified as the origin of the Nubian wild ass Beja-Pereira et al. [16] where it has been domesticated and used for different purposes. Ali et al. [17] mentioned that despite the increase in industrialization, donkeys are still in wide use in rural and urban sites of Sudan. They are becoming increasingly important animals given the new socioeconomic situation with an increased use of donkeys instead of horses in labour. The present work investigates the use of donkeys for transport in Khartoum state in relation to the socioeconomic characteristic of their owners. Table 1:
Region Number %
Distribution of donkey population in Sudan by region.

Central 1,953,217 25.96 Eastern 1,119,761 14.89 Northern 360,728 4.80 Southern 15,030 0.20 Total 7,521,961 100.00
Western 4,073,225 54.15
Figure 1:
Regions of Sudan.
2 Material and methods

2.1 Study area Lying in a semi desert region, Khartoum State is divided by the white, blue and the main River Nile into three urban districts namely Khartoum, Khartoum North and Omdurman, beside a vast rural area. The state was subjected to different migratory impulses through history from different parts of Sudan and for a variety of reasons including the civil war, drought in 1983, or for seeking job opportunities. Most of them inhabit the peripheries of the three towns.

2.2 Study population and data collection A total of 203 donkey drawn carts drivers in eight administrative units in the three districts were purposely selected using a quota sample. Of these, 108 from Omdurman (Salha, Gundahar, Abuzead and Gamair), 54 from Khartoum (Mayo and Kalakla) and 41 from Khartoum North (Hillat-Kuku and Shigla). They were either visited at their working points or when they come to consult some selected veterinary centers. The data was collected during the year 20092010. Questionnaire administered interviews were used in data collection. Researchers observations were also considered. Further in depth investigation was also undertaken for those who use donkey carts for public transport. Personal interviews with cart drivers and utilizers were done. Veterinarians, local administrative officers, resource persons were also interviewed using unstructured questionnaires. 2.3 Statistical analyses Collected data sets were entered, managed and analysed using SPSS Version 16. Descriptive statistics generated included counts, frequencies and means.
3 Results
3.1 The uses of donkeys in Khartoum State Donkeys were used either as pack animals (8.9%) or most dominantly for pulling carts (91.1%). One basic design of carts which can be modified to fit the different purposes was observed; all of the carts have two shafts and use only one donkey. Carts with platform surface can be used for multi purposes. Carts with wooden or metal boxes mainly for bread transport. Carts with two metal barrels attached together for water transport and special design for milk containers as shown in figs. 27. As presented in table 2 about 12.8% of the donkeys and donkey drawn carts were owned to provide personal services whether in domestic affairs or to help the owner in running his own business. A dairy farmer may keep a donkey or Table 2: The different donkey transport purposes in Khartoum State.
Frequency 26 177 34 31 31 25 24 7 25 203 Percent 12.8 87.2 16.7 15.3 15.3 12.3 11.8 3.5 12.3 100.0
Transport purposes Personal use Income generation Transport of building materials Transport of farm produce Transport of water Transport of consumer goods Public transport Transport of milk Other transport purposes Total
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donkey draught cart for farm work to transport animal feed, water or distribution of milk. A trader may also keep a donkey to assist him to transport goods. Donkeys in Khartoum state are mainly used for income generation (87.2%). About 79.8% of them were specialized in one purpose, while 20.2% were used as a multipurpose means of transport. Transport of building materials was the most common purpose in which donkey carts were used all over the state. Flat surface carts are mostly used for transportation of cement, iron sheets, etc. (fig. 2), whereas the sand is transferred using flat surface cart or cart with metal boxes. Donkeys play an important role in transportation of farm products other than milk such as vegetables and fruits either from farm to markets or from central vegetable markets to retailing centers. Women were observed to be involved in selling vegetables using donkey cart for transport. A donkey pulling a cart with two barrels attached together (fig. 3) was a usual phenomenon in areas deprived of the water network. They also solve the problem when there is a shortage in tap water supply during the dry season. Besides supplying domestic houses they also supply the dairy farms and provide water for building construction. All over the state donkey carts were used vis a vis other means of transport to carry consumer goods at different levels of the marketing channel. So we can find donkey carts at central markets, wholesale markets and retailing centers (fig. 4). Traditionally, milk is transported on the back of donkeys, a small milk container at each side. Urbanization and increased population implies the use of donkey carts vegetables, fruit, milk or sometimes domestic equipment or act as mobile welding workshops (fig. 6).
Figure 2:
Transport of building materials.
Figure 3:
Water transport.
Figure 4:
Transport of consumer goods.
Figure 5:
Transport and selling milk.
Figure 6:
Welding workshops.
Figure 7:
Public transport.
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3.2 The socio economic aspect of donkey uses in Khartoum state The study revealed that almost all of the donkey owners are male (99.5%). Their age varies largely between 12 and 70 years with an average of 34.311.3 years. Child labour was encountered in this study. A low education level predominates among the owners with primary education being the highest followed by illiteracy; together they constitute 89.3% of donkey owners. Three university graduates account for 1.3% among the donkey owners. In depth investigation in the use of donkey carts as public transport (fig. 7), revealed that almost all the users originate from western and southern regions and inhabit the peripheries. Both sexes at different ages use donkey carts. The daily income generated by using donkeys was found to range between SDG 4.00 and 80.00 with the most frequent income being SDG 15.
4 Discussion
In the present study the use of a donkey as a pack animal in Khartoum State is significantly lower (P<0.05) than for pulling carts. This is in agreement with the results of Honekom [3] in South Africa. The use of pack donkeys in Khartoum North is significantly higher than the other two districts. This may be attributed to the fact that Khartoum North is less populated than the other two districts in which there was more need for heavy loads justifying the more use of pulling carts than loading the animal. In Khartoum State the donkey cart was pulled by one donkey while in South Africa the most common case is the double donkey cart as described by Honekom [3]. In this study, almost all the donkey owners are men; a similar observation was reported by SOS [18] in several Sahilian countries. The gender difference in ownership and access to using a donkey varies according to cultures, urban rural variation does occur. The conception of donkey ownership as backwardness stems from the fact that urban women do not use or own donkeys, in contrast to women in rural areas especially in the absence of husband as in the case of western Sudan and Northern Ethiopia [19, 20]. The education level of the donkey owners in Khartoum state is similar to that reported by Swai and Bwanga [11] in Tanzania. However, few university graduates and children were encountered in Khartoum State among the donkey owners. The different purposes for using donkeys for transport in this study is similar to that recorded in several African countries [25]. The role of donkeys in the urbanization process in Khartoum State cannot be overseen. All over the state, no single building material shop without a donkey drawn cart waiting beside. Moreover, a special parking place was devoted to donkey carts in Sajana market at the center of Khartoum town. They are cheaper and at disposal. As we move away from the center, donkeys contribute to solving the problems of underdevelopment where water needs to be carried from wells to the domestic households. Unconstructed roads in the peripheries of Khartoum State provide a good chance for donkey carts as a means of transport. A similar result was obtained by Mukiria et al. [5] in the case of Lamu archipelago, Kenya. This is also applied to public transport where the three wheel car Reksha constitutes a

very strong competitor. However, in the periphery donkey carts are preferred because they are cheaper. In addition to providing such services donkeys carts constitute a source of income generation to a good number of families in these parts of Khartoum state. The daily income generated by using donkeys indicates that operating a business using a donkey is more profitable than some jobs in public or private sectors in Sudan. The case resembles that in Addis Ababa where the minimum monthly net income of a Donkey Pack Transport Operations (Birr 125) in 1997 was higher than the minimum salary of a civil servant (Birr 105) as reported by Sisay and Tilahun [2]. The average annual income generated by using donkeys in Khartoum State is much higher than the highest income generated in Makete, Tanzania which ranged between US$ 55 and US$ 124 per household based on Sieber [21]. If we consider an average number of households of 6.1, and an exchange rate of $1 = SDG 2.5 in 2009, then we will end with $3.3 a day per person compared with the poverty line of $1 a day per person. The use of donkeys in Khartoum support owners, utilizers as well as the state government. Donkey owners directly pay for licenses and different taxes such as waste tax every year. Moreover, before issuing the license the donkey should be examined by a veterinarian and in the case of water and milk transportation, the operators should also be subjected to medical examination. These also add to the state government expenditure.
5 Conclusion
The paper concludes that although the use of donkeys is considered as a sign of backwardness and underdevelopment, yet in Khartoum State donkeys contribute in the process of urbanization besides solving the problems of marginalizing people by providing necessary transport services. They act as a source of income mostly for low level education people regardless of their ethnic origin and age. Thus, donkeys act to alleviate poverty and create job opportunities.
Acknowledgements
This study was supported by a grant from the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research. Providing sincere effort in data collection, the authors are indebted to all who participated in completion of this work: donkey owners, resource persons and data collectors, many thanks are extended to all of them.
References
[1] [2] Fielding, D., Pack Transport with Donkeys. Appropriate Technology Journal Volume (15) pp. 1113. 1988. http://practicalaction.org /practicalanswers/product_info.php?products_id=213 Sisay, Z., & Tilahun F., The role of donkey pack-transport in the major grain market of Addis Ababa (paper). Donkeys, people and development, eds. P. Starkey and D. Fielding. A resource book of the Animal Traction
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Network for Eastern and Southern Africa (ATNESA). ACP-EU Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (CTA), Wageningen, The Netherlands. pp. 7178. 2000. Paper available from http://www.atnesa.org Hanekom, D., The use of donkeys for transport in South Africa (Paper). Donkeys, people and development. eds,. P. Starkey and D. A. Fielding. A resource book of the Animal Traction Network for Eastern and Southern Africa (ATNESA). ACP-EU Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (CTA), Wageningen, The Netherlands. 244p. ISBN 92-9081219-2. 2000. Blench, R; de Jode, A & Gherzi, E., Donkeys in Nigeria: history, distribution and productivity (Paper). Donkeys, people and development (resource book of the Animal Traction Network for Eastern and Southern Africa (ATNESA), eds,. P. Starkey and D A Fielding. ACP-EU Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (CTA), Wageningen, The Netherlands. pp. 210219. 2000. Available at http://www.atnesa.org Mukiria, P., Mdachi R., Thuita, J., Mutuku, J., Wanjala, K., Omolo, J., Mulugeta, G., Trawford, A., Ouma1, J., & Murilla, G., Semi-longitudinal study of trypanosomiasis and its vectors in donkeys Proceedings of the 12th kARI Biennial Scientific Conference. 2010. Blench R. A., history of domestic animals in Northeastern Nigeria -Cah. Sci hum. 31 (II): pp. 181237, 1995. Pravda. Ru. Donkeys Are a Better Transport. Online: http://english.pravda.ru/news/society/sex/24-12-2002/19663-0/2 Mutharia, L., Oloyiankalani Group Ranch: a participatory assessment of pastoral resources and their utilisation in selected areas of Kajiado District. Intermediate Technology Kenya, P. O. Box 39493, Nairobi, Kenya. 71 p. 1995. Starkey, P., & Starkey, M., Regional and world trends in donkey populations (paper). Donkeys, people and development, eds. P. Starkey and D. Fielding A resource book of the Animal Traction Network for Eastern and Southern Africa (ATNESA). ACP-EU Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (CTA), Wageningen, The Netherlands. ISBN 92-9081-219-2. pp. 1021. 2000. Paper available from http://www.atnesa.org Bwalya, M., Extension staff and farmer training challenges in donkey traction applications (Paper). Donkeys, people and development. eds,. P. Starkey and D A Fielding (resource book of the Animal Traction Network for Eastern and Southern Africa (ATNESA),ACP-EU Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (CTA), Wageningen, The Netherlands. pp. 134136. 2000. Swai, E. S. & Bwanga, S. J. R., Donkey keeping in northern Tanzania: socio-economic roles and reported husbandry and health constraints. Livestock Research for Rural Development. (20), Article #67. 2008. Retrieved March 30, 2011, from http://www.lrrd.org/lrrd20/5 /swai20067.htm

[12] [13] [14] UNDP, IHDI http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/SDN.html. 2010 http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/SDN.html World Fact Book WFB, http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/sudan/ sudan_economy.html 2011 Robinson, M., Held, D., Santos, S., Onuma, Y., An-Na'Im A., Population below poverty line http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/sudan/sudan _economy.html Academy of Human Rights 2001. Page last updated on January 12, 2011. Ministry of Animal Resources and Fisheries MARF: Annual Report. 2009. Beja-Pereira Albano, Phillip R. England, Nuno Ferrand, Steve Jordan, Amel O. Bakhiet, Mohammed A. Abdalla, Marjan Mashkour, Jordi Jordana, Pierre Taberlet, Gordon Luikart. African Origins of the Domestic Donkey Science 18: Vol. 304. (5678): 1781. 2004. Ali, T. M. O., Ibrahim, K. E. E., Eltom, E. H. A.& Hamid, M. E., Animal diseases diagnosed at the University of Khartoum Veterinary Teaching Hospital (1995-1998). Sud. J. Vet. Sci. Anim. Husb. (40) 38-44. 2001. SOS. Changing Places? Women, resource management and migration in the Sahel. SOS Sahel UK, Tolpuddle Street, London N1 0XT, UK. 169 p 1995. Abu Sin, M. A., & Hadra, T. O., ITDGs to the Kbekabeiya small holders project: an evaluation, Intermediate Technology Sudan P.O. Box 41 72 Khartoum and Intermediate Technology, Myson House, Railway terrace, Rugby CV 21 3HT, UK. 1994. Marshal, K., Ali, Z., & Terfa, B., Socioeconomic issues of donkey use in Ethiopia; A case study of changing relationship. Paper prepared for (ATNESA). Workshop, on improving donkey utilization and management Debre Zeit, Ethiopia 5-9 May 1997. Sieber, N., The economic impact of pack donkeys in Makete, Tanzania. Donkeys, people and development, eds. P. Starkey and D. Fielding. A resource book of the Animal Traction Network for Eastern and Southern Africa (ATNESA). ACP-EU Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (CTA), Wageningen, The Netherlands. pp. 120-123, 2000. Paper available from http://www.atnesa.org
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Section 9 Sustainable solutions in developing countries
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A policy framework for sustainability in developing countries: applying value chain theory to a societys hierarchy of needs
P. R. Walsh
Ted Rogers School of Management, Ryerson University, Canada
Abstract
This paper serves to refine a framework for prioritizing policy related to sustainable development that combines elements of A.H. Maslows hierarchy of needs theory with M.E. Porters value chain theory. The research community has provided a variety of methodologies related to the determination of measurement indicators associated with sustainable development. The use of aggregate indices as indicators of sustainable development has been supported by researchers in the latest literature on sustainable development. Indices-based research however appears to have had little influence on policy development because sustainability indicators in themselves provide no direction for how the information can be used to become more sustainable. Using recent index measures, an appropriate balance of social, economic and environmental sustainability is examined so that policy makers may be provided some direction in regards to appropriate and socially-just resource priorities. The model that forms the basis for this framework is tested through hierarchal regression analysis using data from 45 developing countries and compared to previous testing using earlier data. These latest results confirm the values chain framework whereby the satisfaction of societys physiological needs through the prioritization of policies related to social and environmental sustainability is the principle motivator for moving on to the attainment of higher order needs such as increased levels of sustainable development. Keywords: sustainable development, developing countries, hierarchy of needs, value chain, sustainability indicators.
1 Introduction
Maslow [1], in his formulation of a positive theory of motivation, suggested that there was a hierarchy of needs within individuals that were basic to their existence and therefore represented goals to be achieved. He argued that each of these goals is related to one another and that a hierarchy of need exists given the conditions faced by the individual and that certain needs would be satisfied first. Once that goal was satisfied, then an individual would seek to satisfy the next goal in their hierarchy of needs. He characterized these basic needs in order of prepotency as; physiological, safety, love, esteem and self-actualization. These terms have been represented in the literature as a pyramid model as shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1:
Value chains framework [5].
Some researchers have recently used Maslows hierarchy of needs theory in their creation of models that specifically address global sustainable development. Melloul and Collin [2] employed the pyramid model of Maslows theory to the case of groundwater management in Israel by relating the hierarchy of societal needs to a hierarchy of groundwater management needs where physiological, safety, love, esteem and fulfillment needs equated to physical ground water quantity, water quality, education (awareness) and water resource sustainability respectively. As part of a quantitative analysis of global sustainable development Udo and Jansson [3] found that by measuring sustainable development in terms of a combination of measures related to social, technological and environmental sustainability they were able to group nations into five categories consistent with Maslows hierarchy of needs. They found that nations could be characterized as self-actualized when exhibiting high social and high technological sustainability
665
measures that enabled them to contribute more effort in terms of environmental sustainability. In contrast, those nations with low social and low technological sustainability measures were characteristically deficient in the practice of satisfying their own basic needs, let alone environmental sustainability practices. Porter [4] presented the value chain analysis as a model for the identification and measurement of those activities comprising a firms value chain (Figure 2). A value chain is a series of activities within the firm related to the provision of a product or service that provides value to the firms customers. This resultant value leads to positive financial outcomes for the firm when customers are willing to pay an amount in excess of the costs associated with creating that value. There are two distinct sets of activities, primary and secondary, that a firm undertakes within the value chain. Primary activities are directly related to the provision of products or services sold to a customer. Support activities relate to those functions contained within a firms infrastructure that assist with the undertaking of the firms primary activities. These distinct sets of activities are inter-dependent and how one activity is conducted impacts on other activities within the value chain of the firm. An example of this interdependence can be found in technology development activities where research and development can influence the design of a product or service and that design will have some impact on the outbound logistics or distribution activity if the design involves significant changes to packaging or shipment size.
2 Applying value chain theory to a societys hierarchy of needs

A framework for applying Porters Value Chain to a societys hierarchy of needs as developed by Walsh [5] is shown in Figure 1. The three principal elements of sustainable development; social, economic and environmental sustainability can be represented by one or more of the primary activities. Udo and Jansson [3] characterized advanced environmental sustainability as a state of selfactualization. Social sustainability has been described by Goodland [6] (p.2) as a Cohesion of community for mutual benefit, connectedness between groups of people, reciprocity, tolerance, compassion, patience, forbearance, fellowship, love, commonly accepted standards of honesty, discipline and ethics, similar to Maslows descriptions of the love/belonging and safety/security needs. Economic sustainability has been defined as the achievement and maintenance of capital which has its parallel with personal achievement and stability that Maslow associated with the esteem need. The supporting activities within the values chain are related to the infrastructure within society itself. Much like the infrastructure of the firm, society infrastructures contain, albeit in different forms, support systems such as government (human resource management), industry (technology and development) and trade organizations (procurement). It is the supporting activities of the society infrastructure that contributes to the ability of society to

achieve and uphold societal values that satisfy the physiological, safety, love and self-esteem needs required to achieve sustainable development. Like Porters value chain, all activities within the values chain are inter-dependent and must be managed together in order to succeed. To illustrate this interdependence, government policies can influence the allocation of resources so that adequate supplies of food and water supply exist to meet the physiological needs of their society but the availability of those resources may have resulted from taxation of employment income (self-worth and esteem needs) created by trade mechanisms. This framework serves to provide policy developers with a model for identifying which needs are deficient and then determining the interrelationship of activities required to satisfy those deficiencies.
3 Sustainable development and sustainability indicators

There are generally two types of sustainable development measures that are utilized in the literature. The first type is comprised of either shortened sets of so-called headline indicators (e.g. GDP or per capita income) centered on themes (e.g. water quality), jurisdictions (e.g. specific regions) or sectors (e.g. energy production). The second type is an aggregate of indices derived from variable measures related to economic, social and environmental sustainability [7, 8]. Combining social, economic and environmental indices as indicators of sustainable development has been supported by researchers in the latest literature on sustainable development [914]. Two of the more popular indices include the Human Development Index (HDI) which aggregates income (gross domestic product per capita), education (adult literacy rate) and health (life expectancy at birth) and the Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) - now modified to be the Environmental Performance Index- an aggregation of indicators related to environmental health impacts on humans (disease, water pollution, air pollution) and ecosystem vitality (air/water pollution effects, biodiversity and habitat, productive natural resources-forestry, fisheries and agriculture, and climate change). In addition to these sustainability measures, other indices include the International Food Policy Research Institutes (IFPRI) Global Hunger Index that measures malnourishment in adults and children as well as infant mortality rates and the Global Peace Index (GPI) that provides a measure of the existence or absence of societal safety and security. This latter index is published by the Institute for Economics and Peace. Furthermore, the World Economic Forum (WEF) publishes two indices related to societal and economic sustainability. The first, the Global Gender Gap Index (GGI), is a report that identifies the magnitude of the gap existing between men and women in four important areas: economic participation and opportunity, political empowerment, educational attainment and, health and survival. The second, the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) measures what is termed The 12 pillars of competitiveness such as the institutional environment, extensive and efficient infrastructure,
667
macroeconomic stability, a healthy and educated workforce (at a primary level), quality higher education and training (secondary and tertiary level), healthy market competition, labour market efficiency, financial market sophistication, technology readiness, market size, business sophistication and innovation. Various researchers have created their own indices including Ronchi et als [8] sustainable development index of a limited set of headline indicators related to socio-economic development, environmental quality and resource and Distasos [15] index that extends elements of the HDI to include specific environmental indicators such as emission rates and percentages of environmentally protected areas. One other recent index that combines data from the 2004-2005 Global Competitiveness Index and the 2005 ESI to determine the linkage of national supply chains to sustainable development was developed by Vachon and Mao [16]. A criticism of the indices-based approach to measuring sustainable development is that it seems to have had little influence on policy development [13]. The reason for this lack of influence is that these measures provide no direction for how the information can be used to become more sustainable [17]. A needs approach [18] that focuses less on societal rights when determining sustainable development policies and more on the needs of society could assist policy makers in terms of providing direction from the results of the data measured. A needs approach would also be more consistent with the Brundtland Report`s definition of sustainable development as the development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. [19]
4 Data and methods

Following on the work of Walsh [5] that relied on 2009 data, more recent data (2010) was gathered for the different sustainability indices used in the framework (See Table 1). Standardized scores from 45 developing nations (See Table 2) were compiled for each of the indices and the sum total of these social, economic and environmental sustainability measures represent the sustainable development score for that country (SD). A hierarchal forward method of multiple regression analyzed the predictor variables (Index scores for the EPI, GHI, GPI, GGI and GCI) from the model one at a time in an order determined by their relative correlative strength with the criterion variable, SD. The impact of adding each predictor variable was assessed and any variable that did not significantly add to the success of the model was excluded. Collinearity diagnostics were applied in order to test for any predictive variables that may have been highly correlated and which may limit the ability to infer the relative contribution of each predictor variable. In such circumstances, these predictive variables would be removed.

Table 1: Values chain and chosen indices. Related Sustainability Indicator Global Hunger Index (GHI)1 Environmental Performance Index (EPI)2 Environmental health impacts on humans Ecosystem Vitality Global Peace Index (GPI)3 Measures of societal safety and security Gender Gap Index (GGI)4 Economic Participation and Opportunity Educational Attainment Political Empowerment Health and Survival Global Competitiveness Index (GCI)5 Basic Requirements Efficiency Enhancers Innovation and Sophistication Factors Sustainable Development (SD)
Component of the Values Chain
Physiological Needs
Safety and Security Needs
Love and Belonging Needs
Self-Esteem Needs
Self-Actualization Needs
1 2
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 2010 Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy, CIESIN Columbia University, WEF and JRCEC (2010) 3 Institute for Economics and Peace 2010 4 World Economic Forum (WEF) 2010 5 World Economic Forum (WEF) 2009-2010
Table 2:
2010 scores and ranking of developing nations. S-standardized score.

Rank 38 37 41 33 40 36 42 29 1 6 4 5 12 23 20 26 30 35 22 28 21 44 45 GHIS 0.26 0.78 0.72 0.38 0.39 0.52 0.00 0.97 0.98 0.84 0.92 0.97 0.98 0.81 0.74 0.89 0.26 0.69 0.43 0.13 0.49 0.46 0.69 Rank 42 19 22 39 38 30 45 8 3 16 11 7 5 18 21 14 41 26 35 44 32 34 25 GPIS 0.70 0.72 1.00 0.85 0.57 0.60 0.06 0.72 0.19 0.67 0.61 0.61 0.06 0.90 0.56 0.46 0.38 0.78 0.48 0.73 0.88 0.57 0.47 Rank 19 17 1 8 29 27 43 16 42 22 25 26 44 4 30 37 38 13 32 14 5 28 35 GGIS 0.41 0.39 0.33 0.64 0.50 0.66 1.00 0.33 0.31 0.38 0.25 0.46 0.45 0.38 0.61 0.31 0.65 0.45 0.50 0.40 0.36 0.85 0.65 Rank 27 25 17 35 32 38 45 16 12 24 10 30 29 22 34 13 36 28 31 26 20 43 37 GCIS 0.64 0.71 0.35 0.81 0.66 0.66 1.00 0.00 0.37 0.53 0.63 0.39 0.50 0.69 0.42 0.47 0.23 0.25 0.58 0.71 0.71 0.82 0.80 Rank 27 37 7 42 29 30 45 1 8 21 26 12 19 33 15 18 4 5 22 38 36 44 41 SD 153 135 88 157 168 161 220 70 66 89 76 80 109 100 120 108 149 107 142 150 114 193 183
Country Bangladesh Bolivia Botswana Burkina Faso Cambodia Cameroon Chad China Colombia Dominican Rep. Ecuador El Salvador Georgia Ghana Guatemala Honduras India Indonesia Kenya Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania
EPIS 0.24 0.25 0.18 0.32 0.19 0.25 0.16 0.35 1.00 0.81 0.83 0.82 0.69 0.41 0.47 0.38 0.34 0.25 0.41 0.36 0.41 0.13 0.00
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Table 2:
Country Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Namibia Nepal Nicaragua Nigeria Pakistan Panama Paraguay Peru Philippines South Africa Sri Lanka Syria Tanzania Thailand Trinidad&Tobago Uganda Venezuela Viet Nam Zambia EPIS 0.21 0.74 0.41 0.59 0.80 0.54 0.15 0.33 0.87 0.69 0.83 0.74 0.40 0.70 0.72 0.33 0.66 0.48 0.37 0.68 0.59 0.31 Rank 39 9 24 16 7 18 43 31 2 13 3 8 25 11 10 32 15 19 27 14 17 34 GHIS 0.70 0.98 0.28 0.67 0.42 0.82 0.51 0.46 0.89 0.97 0.93 0.70 0.92 0.64 1.00 0.40 0.87 1.00 0.62 0.96 0.75 0.23 Rank 23 4 40 27 36 17 31 33 13 6 10 24 12 28 1 37 15 2 29 9 20 43
Continued.
GPIS 0.67 0.84 0.90 0.84 0.71 0.80 0.21 0.00 0.83 0.73 0.70 0.34 0.48 0.30 0.55 0.86 0.47 0.67 0.63 0.47 0.96 0.88 Rank 21 9 3 10 18 12 41 45 11 15 20 39 33 40 31 7 36 23 24 34 2 6 GGIS 0.20 0.81 0.14 0.18 0.68 0.21 0.69 0.94 0.25 0.37 0.33 0.00 0.05 0.08 0.74 0.35 0.32 0.13 0.21 0.34 0.38 0.59 Rank 7 42 5 6 39 8 40 44 11 21 15 1 2 3 41 19 14 4 9 18 23 33 GCIS 0.70 0.38 0.81 0.38 0.75 0.70 0.58 0.62 0.28 0.74 0.39 0.45 0.21 0.39 0.52 0.62 0.10 0.44 0.65 0.68 0.38 0.67 Rank 35 9 43 10 40 34 23 25 6 39 13 17 3 14 20 24 2 16 28 32 11 31 SD 125 73 115 69 140 89 178 178 43 94 61 89 75 96 103 119 82 64 117 107 73 147
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5 Results
The results of the regression are shown in Table 3. Consistent with the results of the earlier work of Walsh (2011), the greatest contribution to higher levels of sustainable development in developing nations is made by attending to the physiological (GHI R2 = .584, EPI R2 = .182), love and belonging (GGI R2 = .083) and, safety and security needs of society (GPI R2 = .060) . As with the previous work, the self-actualization needs as measured by the GCI (R2 = .058) contributed least to the level of sustainable development. Table 3: Results of multiple regression analysis hierarchal forward method.
Model 1 2 3 4 5
R .764 .875 .921 .953 .983
R2 .584 .766 .849 .908 .966
Adj. R2 .574 .754 .838 .899 .962
Std. Error 26.65900 20.24779 16.46907 12.97353 7.97365
R2 .584 .182 .083 .060 .058
F 60.357 32.542 22.484 26.070 66.892
The diagnostic test for collinearity (Table 4) among the needs variables resulted in reasonable tolerances (>.10) and VIFs (<10) that limit concerns about multi-collinearity effects on the results. Table 4:
Modela EPI 1 GPI GGI GCI EPI 2 GPI GCI 3 4
a
Exclusion of variables analysis.

Tolerance .670 .999 .852 .736 .659 .914 .712 .905 .710 .707 VIF 1.492 1.001 1.174 1.358 1.518 1.094 1.405 1.105 1.409 1.415
GPI GCI GCI
All model predictors significant to .001
6 Discussion
The application of the results of the analysis of 2010 data supports previous work that suggested less- developed nations must address the physiological needs of society (as put forward by Maslow) by implementing environmental sustainability policies in tandem with social sustainability policies so that resource allocation priorities are balanced between the two. Policy makers in developing nations should focus on initiatives that balance available resources between social and environmental sustainability needs. For example, in the African nations of Chad and the Republic of Mali the levels of sustainable development are the lowest amongst developing nations. The framework would indicate that policies which stimulate improvements in the social and environmental welfare of those countries would have a greater impact on sustainable development and encourage the pursuit of sustainable economic growth. Some countries may rank highly on most of the sustainability indicators but still fall behind on certain measures, such as in the case of Thailand where the GPI score is comparatively lower than other scores. For the Thai government, policies and resource allocation that can improve the safety and security needs of its society would enhance its status as a leader in sustainable development among developing countries. The value needs framework has implications for regional policy development. In Central America, Panama ranks at the top in the region for meeting the physiological needs and the self-esteem needs of its society but it ranks lower in the region on the safety need. Policy makers in Panama might consider allocating more resources to addressing those social sustainability measures related to a safer society in order to improve its overall level of sustainable development. Guatemala ranks last in the region in sustainable development due to its lower EPI and GHI scores (physiological needs) and its low GGI score (belonging needs). According to the values chain model, policy makers in Guatemala should focus resources on environmental and social sustainability measures firstly and then once they have improved their ability to meet their physiological needs they can begin considering gender equity policies. As discussed later in the limitations section, caution must be exercised in relying completely on these results and other country-specific factors may need to be considered.
7 Limitations and future research

The sample used (n=45) was limited by the availability of data for the sustainability measures that make up the values chain framework and therefore the extent to which one can generalize the relative strengths of the indices used on the level of sustainable development is limited to that sample. The sample could be expanded to include other developing countries as well as developed nations in order to allow for greater insight into the influence of the satisfaction of needs on the level of sustainable development. As most developed countries have presumably satisfied their primary needs, it is not unreasonable to expect
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that the satisfaction of higher-order needs has a greater influence on the level of sustainable development. Furthermore, there are a number of combinations of measurable components of sustainability that might be more appropriate in providing policy direction when applied to this framework.
References
[1] Maslow, A.H., A theory of human motivation. Psychological Review, 50, 370-396, 1943. [2] Matania, E., Yaniv, I., Resource priority, fairness, and equality-efficiency compromises. Social Justice Research, 20(4), 497-510, 2007. [3] Melloul, A.J., Collin, M.L., Prioritization of sustainable groundwater management needs: The case of Israels stressed coastal aquifer. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 4(4), 347-360, 2002. [4] Udo, V.E., Jansson, P.M., Bridging the gaps for global sustainable development: A quantitative analysis. Journal of Environmental Management, 90(12), 3700-3707, 2009. [5] Porter, M.E., Changing patterns of international competition. California Management Review, 28(2), 9-40, 1986. [6] Walsh, P., Creating a Values Chain for Sustainable Development in Developing Nations: Where Maslow meets Porter. Environment Development and Sustainability (Forthcoming), 2011. [7] Goodland, R., Sustainability: Human, Social, Economic and Environmental, Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change. John Wiley & Sons: London, 2002. [8] Ronchi, E., Federico, A., Musmeci, F., A system oriented integrated indicator for sustainable development in Italy. Ecological Indicators, 2(1/2), 193-210, 2002. [9] Mayer, A.L., Thurston, H.W., Pawlowski, C.W., The multidisciplinary influence of common sustainability indices. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2(8), 419-426, 2004. [10] Chen, Y., Su, X., Hipel, K.W., Index aggregation approach to comparing the performance of emerging and developed countries. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 43(1), 25-39, 2009. [11] Moffat, I., A preliminary analysis of composite indicators of sustainable development. International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, 15(2), 81-87, 2008. [12] Moran, D.D., Wackernagel, M., Kitzes, J.A., Goldfinger, S.H., Boutaud, A., Measuring sustainable development Nation by nation. Ecological Economics, 64(2), 470-474, 2008. [13] Morse, S., Greening the United Nations Human Development Index. Sustainable Development, 11(4), 183-198, 2003. [14] Neumayer, E., The human development index and sustainability a constructive proposal. Ecological Economics, 39(1), 101-114, 2001.

[15] Webersik, C., Wilson, C., Achieving environmental sustainability and growth in Africa: the role of science, technology and innovation, Journal of Sustainable Development, 17(6), 400-413, 2009. [16] Distaso, A., Well-being and/or quality of life in EU countries through a multidimensional index of sustainability. Ecological Economics, 64(1), 163- 180, 2007. [17] Vachon, S., Mao, Z., Linking supply chain strength to sustainable development: a country-level analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 16(15), 1552-1560, 2008. [18] Murray, A., Ray, I., Nelson, K.L., An innovative sustainability assessment for urban wastewater infrastructure and its application in Chengdu, China. Journal of Environmental Management, 90(11), 3553-3560, 2009. [19] Redclift, M., Sustainable development (1987-2005): An oxymoron comes of age. Sustainable Development, 13(4), 212-227, 2005. [20] Cabezas, H., Pawlowski, C.W., Mayer, A.L., Hoagland, N.T., Sustainable systems theory: ecological and other aspects. Journal of Cleaner Production, 13(5), 455-467, 2005.
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Evaluating stakeholders preferences: reconciling heritage and sustainability

N. A. W. Abdullah Zawawi1 & A. Abdullah2
1
Civil Engineering Department, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Malaysia 2 Kulliyyah of Architecture, International Islamic University Malaysia, Malaysia
Abstract
The subsistence of traditional shophouse is threatened by demolition, unsympathetic changes and rapid redevelopment pace. Most often, the decisions pertaining to redevelopment of this built heritage are based on guidelines unrepresentative of the multi-cultural society in Malaysia. Involvement of direct stakeholders, namely owners and tenants, are minimal in the decision process. This paper provides an objective evaluation for the traditional shophouse redevelopment, incorporating multiple stakeholders preferences. It focuses on exploring conflicts and values of the stakeholders using Multiple Criteria Analysis, or MCA technique. Using a common MCA technique, the Analytical Hierarchy Process, or AHP, stakeholders preferences on a set of criteria for redevelopment decision are derived and compared. It is found that stakeholders preferences are dissimilar even within their homogenous groups. This study contributes to discovering the potential of MCA to increase transparency in redevelopment decisions involving built heritage and multiple stakeholders. Keywords: conservation area, Kuala Lumpur, redevelopment decision, traditional shophouse, stakeholders, multi-cultural society, MCA, AHP.
1 Introduction
Jacobs [1] believed that to a sustainable city embraces its past in future planning. The past gives a sense of belonging to a society, balancing progressive development with conservation of cultural values within its society [2, 3]. Cultural values of a society are strongly associated with the physical structures,

particularly the buildings [4, 5]. Architectural details of each building reflect the changing eras. Malaysia built heritage is of recent vintage when compared to world heritage city such as Jordans Petra. Nevertheless, it should be protected. Individually, a built heritage may not be spectacular but together with its intangible resources, such as multiculturalism and ethnic diversity, they are part of the future generations. Development that continually replaces these buildings with modern structures will diminish the cultural values and disintegrate the society [6], whereby intangible heritage such as local festivities will be celebrated with less vigour. In Kuala Lumpur, redevelopment and conservation is a quandary. Conservation of traditional shophouse is strongly opposed by market pressure biased on economically highest and best land use. The zoning of older areas into commercial property intensifies the redevelopment pressure on this built heritage [7]. The threat of obsolescence requires traditional shophouse owners to decide on the extent of redevelopment: adaptive reuse, rehabilitate, faade conservation or total redevelopment. Conversely, total redevelopment creates an opportunity to eliminate substandard buildings, incompatible land uses and other unwanted elements [8, 9]. Increasing land prices render urban redevelopment as an attractive economic proposition. The surrounding communities also indirectly benefit from redevelopment of a site [10]. Then again, social function of a city is just as important. Total redevelopment is commonly associated with gentrification, displacing the original community and thus destroying the social integrity in most cases [11]. The minority groups are often removed from the redeveloped areas [12] and the decision made for the greater good easily lose sight of its objective [13]. However, urban redevelopment as defined in this research could revive the social life of a place. In this respect, adaptive reuse and faade conservation are sustainable options to total redevelopment because they cause less social disturbance; a quicker and cheaper options to improve the quality of the building stock; and a better sustainable approach to urban redevelopment: it uses existing resources and produces less construction and demolition wastes [14]. Minimal social disruption is particularly important for older inner city areas because of existing community and its association with built heritage. This paper is part of an ongoing research to provide an objective evaluation for traditional shophouse redevelopment, incorporating multiple stakeholders preferences. It explores conflicts and values of the stakeholders using Multiple Criteria Analysis, or MCA technique. The study is dedicated to provide a mechanism to elicit and objectively evaluate respondents interests and values. These differences are now measurable, comparable and if wished to, can pave ways for further discussion to understand the issue. It will act as preliminary findings for political decision makers to further explore the conflict and reasons behind the conflict, thus promote a transparent and consensual decision environment. 1.1 Redevelopment vs. conservation As Malaysia made its place in the global economy, Kuala Lumpur or KL, experiences rapid growth far ahead of other local cities [15]. Demands for more
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space made older areas potential developable land via urban redevelopment. The Government initiated integration of KLs economy with the global economy in 1980. By 1995, KL Stock Exchange or KLSE is ranked fifth in the Asia Pacific Region after Tokyo, Osaka, Hong Kong and Australia [15] propelling KL as a center for trade, finance and commerce. Commercial land use increased more than 25 percent from 1984 to 2000 whilst other land uses decreased [7]. Rapid growth resulted in substantial and sometimes irreversible changes to its built form and socio-cultural character. The existing space, a legacy of colonial immediate past decisions, however represents different socio-economic, political forces and circumstances. The conservation guidelines impose on these older areas are perceived as unnecessary obstacle. Some owners want the freedom to express their business identities via the outlook of their premises but others such as the pro-conservation groups opine that the original urban character should be conserved to maintain KLs unique urban identity [5]. Generally, the conservation guidelines emphasize on architectural significance whereas there exist many other aspects which could be objectively considered in decisions to redevelop culturally significant urban areas. 1.1.1 Public involvement in redevelopment decisions The involvement of multiple stakeholders in urban planning is an important part in sustainable future [16]. Successful urban redevelopments in many countries show that they were initiated and driven mainly by the community themselves [12, 1719]. Unfortunately, the current planning decisions in Malaysia are exclusive to a group of stakeholders. Community participation in redevelopment is minimal [20]. Public participation in planning decisions is at best, mere formality, exemplified by the gazetting of the Kuala Lumpur Draft Local Plan, KLDCP [21]. The members of the public are not consulted until the public viewing of the draft plan. The subsequent processes from public objections to public hearing and report on the recommended changes to the Mayor are ineffective because the final decision lies exclusively with the Mayor. 1.1.2 Multicultural heritage KLs distinctive local identity is entrenched in the traditional shophouse. Diverse cultural influences are clearly manifested in the architectural details. The Malaysian built heritage is largely regarded as the product of a colonial plural society [22, 23]. The traditional shophouse with covered kaki lima (literally five foot) way is unique to early urban settlements in Southeast Asia, particularly Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. The kaki lima is an adaptation to the local climate, hot humid and torrential rain. This oldest extant urban settlement is the repository of lifestyle from different era of small-scale economy and life style that ironically nurtured the current economic success. Apart from the market and places of worship, traditional shophouse is one component of early major towns in Malaysia [24]. Many have played a central role in the life of a city for almost a century. Its floor space was designed to cater for the needs of the then urbanites. The ground floor is business use, whereas the top floor is residential. Over the years, traditional shophouse has played a major role in meeting housing needs for urban dwellers [6]. It was extremely convenient for traders and merchants to

live close to their workplace. When the merchants relocate to the more conducive suburbs, the vacant residential quarters were then converted into workers quarters or rented outs. This arrangement has silently supported economic growth and helped businesses to sustain for generations in the rapidly developing city center. 1.2 The study area The City Hall of Kuala Lumpur or CHKL has been rather proactive in protecting heritage buildings and areas [25]. CHKL has drafted a local plan that defines three heritage zones within the inner city center: Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Heritage Zones, referring to the level of conservation enforcement. The Secondary Zone encompasses an area that is less contiguous and contains mixture of newer and older buildings with significant historic merit. The zone is the oldest commercial area, where the most number of traditional shophouse with historical and/or architectural merits are located. It is populated with Category 3 heritage buildings: buildings with elements or characteristics of some historical or architectural significance which are recommended to be conserved [21].
2 The methodology
The methodology in this study consists of two stages: Multiple Criteria Analysis to elicit and rank stakeholders preferences followed by Consensus Building that establishes the correlation among those rankings. 2.1 MCA technique MCA is not a singular tool to measure different aspects in sustainability [13]. However, it was chosen for a number of reasons. MCA effectively decomposes a decision problem in a structured manner. The process of assigning weighting factor to each criterion [26] and the need to justify criteria and weight choices can contribute to openness, traceability and accountability in the decision making process. It enables stakeholders to learn about their own preferences and of others as well. Transparency in decision making is increasingly demanded in public and private decisions that affect scarce public resources such as land and its associated uses. MCA method provides insight into how different individuals approach a decision problem as well as areas and intensity of consensus or conflict among individuals. One of the popular MCA methods is the Analytical Hierarchy Process or AHP proposed by Saaty [27]. The working principles of AHP comprise of decomposition, comparative judgment and synthesis of priorities via three basic steps: model building, pairwise comparison and ranking. A set of criteria is established and decomposed into different levels of independent elements, with increasing degree of specificity, known as a decision hierarchy (Figure 1). The criteria will be used to evaluate the alternatives. Comparative judgment compares the relative importance of one decision criterion to another in the same level pairwise. Stakeholders will assign weights
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to each criterion according to their preferences on a scale that ranges from equal importance to extreme importance, represented by numbers 1 to 9 respectively. Even numbers are considered as intermediate points between adjacent values. The weights are then synthesized to obtain ranking.
Importance Intensity 1 3 5 7 9 Definition Criteria i and i` are equally important Criterion i is moderately more important than criterion i` Criterion i is strongly more important than criterion i` Criterion i is very strongly more important than criterion i` Criterion i is extremely more important than criterion i`
Stakeholders preferences in redevelopment decision Economic Economic Return (ER) Initial Project Cost (IPC) Recurrent Cost (RC) Fiscal Incentives (FI) Local Employment (LE) Diverse Business Opportunity (DBO) Environmental Public Space (PS) Traffic Impacts (TI) Construction and Demolition Waste (CDW) Impacts on Visual Quality (VQ) Amenities (Am) Accessibility (Acc) Structural Conditions (SC) Potential for Reuse (PR) Flexible Design (FD) Lot Size (LS) Physical Architectural Merits (AM) Historical and Cultural Integrity (HCI) Social Integrity (SI) Welfare and Community Facilities (WCF) Eliminate Unwelcomed Uses (EUU) Social
Figure 1:
Redevelopment decision problem decomposed into decision hierarchy.
The strength of AHP is that decision makers are assumed to be inconsistent in their values and judgments. The method measures this inconsistency to help the stakeholder(s) learn more about the decision in question and of their own and others biases and inconsistencies. Inconsistency Ratio <0.10 indicates a reasonable level of consistency. Ratio 0.10 suggest revising the original pairwise comparison values. 2.2 Consensus building Consensus building is established by creating awareness among the stakeholders of the differences within the group. It captures and subsumes conflict balancing or consensus building within the redevelopment decision process. However, in situations where stakeholder objectives and priorities are in conflict, it is difficult in practice to reach agreement on the relative importance of individual criterion. In these cases, it is more appropriate to explore the various dimensions of the conflict, as represented in criteria choices and weightings, by producing group rankings that are based on the ranks generated by individual group members. To

test the significance of the association between pairs of stakeholder criteria rankings and between the ranks for individuals, Spearmans rank correlation coefficients (rs) were calculated for the rankings of criteria by stakeholders. The test statistic assumes that at least five pairs of observations are present and that the observations are ranked from 1 to n with many tied ranks being represented by average ranks [28]. Assuming that the number of pairs of tied ranks does not exceed 25 percent of n, the statistic has the following form [28]:
n 2 6 di 1 rs i n3 n
(1)
where: d i2 is the squared difference between the rank for alternative I; n is the number of observations. When n is greater than 10, the distribution of rs approaches the t distribution allowing the significance of rs to be tested against critical values of t as a value of t with n 2 degrees of freedom [29]. The transformation of rs values to Students t is calculated by:
t rs
n2 2 1 rs
(2)
2.3 Data collection The overall approach of this paper involves survey using questionnaire to identify stakeholders preferences or priority for each criterion. The preferences indicated by each stakeholder are subsequently compared pairwise to other stakeholders. The consistency of evaluation is maintained through moderation by the same researcher who, while guiding the stakeholders through their input on preferences, was careful not to bias any aspect of the process. The sampling is done based on purposive sampling, meaning only selected individuals is chosen as respondent. The questionnaire comprises three parts: the particulars of the respondent, preference weightage and open ended feedback on the criteria. The second part defined criteria weighting. The questionnaire survey was conducted as structured interview. Respondents were given a detailed explanation about the survey. Each criterion was explained in detail to ensure respondents have common understanding of the key terms and criteria to be weighed. The respondents are allowed to ask questions to remove ambiguities. This process is crucial to ensure consistent interpretations of the terminology so that the results can be analyzed in a meaningful way. Twenty individuals were approached for the structured interview but only nine responded. They are lay people, representing the community made up of owners and tenants in the study area. They were chosen based on the premise they occupy, namely the traditional shophouse within traditional commercial area undergoing rapid redevelopment nearby and in the surrounding areas.
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3 MCA framework for redevelopment decisions

3.1 The stakeholders A stakeholder is a person who is involved in or affected by a course of action determined by a decision. The stakeholders involvement as decision maker are often classified in relation to the level where decisions are made i.e. national, regional or local levels, the scale and durability of their decisions. Stakeholders can be classified based on the effect of the decision making [30] or decision contexts [31]. In this study, the stakeholders are the owner and/or tenants. The owners in this study are the people carrying out business activities within the area. The study classifies the landowners/tenants in older Kuala Lumpur to be in direct group with homogenous decision making context [32]. The stakeholders have direct interest in the use and value increase of the building and their common objective is to optimize the land into highest and best use. 3.2 The criteria Based on literature and discussion with various stakeholders within the City Center, the study selected twenty-one criteria that are relevant to redevelopment decisions [32]. The selection criteria must be as broad as possible to equally represent all aspects of consideration, encompassing economical, social and environmental/physical dimensions, but not too broad that the evaluation becomes too complicated, leading to increased inconsistency in judgment and uncertainty [33]. The MCA technique was applied to rank the relative importance of each criterion based on each individuals preferences and underlying objectives. The consensus analysis determines the correlation strength of those rankings.
4 Research findings
The fundamental elements of consensus and conflict in multiple stakeholder decision making are shown in Figures 2-5 and Table 1: the extent of agreement concerning the criteria for redevelopment decision and differentials in the relative importance of individual criteria, as expressed through weight settings. Figure 2 shows the average criteria weightage for all nine stakeholders. Economic Return is weighted as the most important by eight stakeholders; six of them give the highest priority to this criterion. There is more than 60 percent gap between Economic Return and the next most important criterion. This is followed by another three criteria in economic: Diversity in Business Opportunity, Fiscal Incentives and Local Employment, as shown in Figure 3. It is evident from the priority weights assignment that economic aspect is the most important factor to owners and tenants in the case study area. At the other end of the bar chart, three criteria are least preferred by the stakeholders: Architectural Merits, Historical/cultural Integrity and Social Integrity. Overall there are six least important criteria as shown in Figure 4. Eight of nine stakeholders consider Architectural Merits as the least important.
Figure 2:
Overall weightage preferences.
Figure 3:
Criteria given highest weightage by at least three stakeholders.
Legend: See Figure 1
Figure 4:
Criteria given lowest weightage by at least three stakeholders.
Figure 5:
Criteria given weightage.
mixed
Many stakeholders feel that conservation of these values is mainly the responsibilities of the Government and local authorities. Unless the benefits can be made tangible in some ways to benefit their businesses, they do not think these criteria are important. However, many verbally express willingness to cooperate in conservation efforts. Figure 5 shows three criteria that receive mixed weightage, meaning it was ranked highly important by some and of low importance by other(s). Two stakeholders feel that Lot Sizes is an important criterion. One stakeholder thinks it is the least important, where as the other six give medium priority. Comparatively, this group of stakeholders is more homogenous compared to Professionals [32], which gives mixed weightage to five criteria: Amenities, Flexible Design, Lot Sizes, Structural Conditions and Welfare and Community Facilities.
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Some understanding of each stakeholders objectives and concerns is required to understand the origin of conflict and the rationale underlying criteria weights. Many of the owners/tenants have been operating for more than 15 years. Until the year 2000, traditional shophouses are classified as controlled premise under the Control of Rent Act 1960 (Repealed 2000). Overhead costs are low, allowing businesses to sustain despite rapid redevelopment in the surrounding areas. However, low rent gives little incentives for owners to properly maintain their premises. This has led to dilapidated states of traditional shophouses and the surrounding areas. The stakeholders wish to continue operating their businesses in the same premise regardless of whether redevelopment takes place or not. However, majority stressed the need for more public spaces and better access to the area. Owners and tenants in general perceived that conservation is the responsibility of the Government, and the planners and architects in the City Hall. They are willing to give their supports in terms of cooperation and following the guidelines set by the authorities. Architectural, historical and social were considered of low importance. This lack of perceived importance could be because of inability to directly relate these criteria to economic gain. Many stressed on the improvement on area safety. This may be because crime rates are rather high in the city center, and as a major tourist spot, such issue would definitely have negative impacts on businesses. Table 1 shows the correlations of the stakeholders importance ranking for consensus building. From the importance ranking of 9 stakeholders, 36 pairwise comparisons, Stakeholder 1, S1 compares to Stakeholder 2 is denoted by S1-S2, thus formulated as Si-Sj., Pairwise comparisons are carried out to determine the strength and significance of correlations between the ranks. Pairwise rs values confirmed strong and significant positive correlations between ranks of importance for 24 pairs at 99% confidence level, except between 12 pairs shown in Table 1. Significant positive correlations at 95% confidence level are observed between 7 compared rankings in the table, marked by YES. Ranking of importance by Stakeholder 8 (S8) has insignificant correlations with three other stakeholders, S1, S3 and S7. Five pairwise comparisons have correlations below Table 1:
Stakeholder, Si to Si S1-S3 S1-S4 S1-S8 S1-S9 S2-S8 S2-S9 S3-S5 S3-S8 S3-S9 S5-S8 S7-S8 S7-S9
Correlations of stakeholders importance ranking.

Rs 0.431818182 0.482792208 0.138311688 0.193181818 0.416883117 0.418181818 0.307142857 0.339285714 0.47012987 0.399350649 0.215584416 0.380519481 Student's t statistic 2.08684466 2.403058677 0.608737399 0.858226456 1.99915417 2.006699516 1.406804808 1.572167838 2.321838862 1.898704644 0.962339905 1.793571107 Significant@95% YES YES NO NO YES YES NO NO YES YES NO YES Significant@99% NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

95% confidence level. S6 has strong and significant correlations at 99% confidence level with all the stakeholders. Consistency Index, CI for both S8 and S9 are very high, 0.39 and 0.27 respectively, followed by S3 at 0.23. The other stakeholders have CI equal or less than 0.1. The correlations between rankings of criteria by different stakeholders (Figures 2 to 5) are strong as indicated by Table 1. The analysis of the problem shows that this evaluation method works rather well in exposing individual and sub-group dimensions of commonality and to identify differences among individuals in a group. This study finds economic aspects as the main priority in redevelopment decisions followed by environmental aspect. Majority of the stakeholders share similar preferences. However, one third of the stakeholders have little in common with each other.
5 Conclusion
This paper has presented an MCA-based evaluation to urban redevelopment decision in culturally significant areas to uncover conflict and consensus in decision making. The decision-making evaluation developed in this study has potential for practical application. The framework developed in this paper may offer a way of facilitating community involvement in urban redevelopment process. The findings in this study suggested that even those with similar interests and decision contexts can have divergent views pertaining to the relative importance of the decision criteria. This is perhaps one of the major roots of disputes over urban redevelopment and conservation efforts in presentday society. The researchers acknowledge the limitation of this study in terms of generalization the findings to other cities or urban areas. Solutions attempted previously may have little relevance to another place and time. It is valuable to extend the investigation to explore whether stakeholders preferences are project-, time- and/or location-specific.
Acknowledgement
We would like to thank the Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS for providing facilities to accomplish the work for this paper.
References
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[22] P. T. Fels, Conserving the Shophouse City, in The Penang Story International Conference 2002. The City Bayview Hotel, Penang, Malaysia, 2002. [23] A. A Ghafar, British Colonial Architecture in Malaysia 1800-1930. Kuala Lumpur: Museums Association of Malaysia, 1997. [24] J. M. Gullick, Old Kuala Lumpur. Shah Alam: Oxford University Press, 2005. [25] W. A. Z. Noor Amila and A. Alias, Urban Heritage Conservation Through Redevelopment Strategies: A Case Study Of Kuala Lumpur, presented at CSAAR08B, Petra University, Amman, Jordan, 2008. [26] R. Janssen, Multiobjective Decision Support for Environmental Management. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992. [27] T. L. Saaty, The Analytical Hierarchy Process. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1980. [28] S. Siegel and J. Castellan, N. John, Nonparametric Statistics for the Behavioural Sciences. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1988. [29] C. D. Adams and H. G. May, Active and Passive Behaviour in Land Ownership, Urban Studies, vol. 28, pp. 687 - 705, 1991. [30] I. L. Z. Bacic, Demand-driven Land Evaluation With Case Studies in Santa Catarina, Brazil, in Department of Earth Systems Analysis, vol. Ph.D: Wageningen University, 2003, pp. 155. [31] R. D. Feick, A Multi-participant Spatial Decision Support System for Planning Tourism-related Land Use Change in Small Island States, in Geography, vol. Ph.D. Ontario: University of Waterloo, 2000, pp. 228. [32] W. A. Z. Noor Amila, A. Alias, and I. Arazi, Sustainable Planning: Specifying Stakeholders Preferences in Redevelopment Decisions for Conservation Area in Kuala Lumpur, in International Conference on Sustainable Building and Infrastructure (ICSBI10). Kuala Lumpur, 2010. [33] A. Alias, An Integrated Method of MCDM and GIS for Land Use Planning and Environmental Resources Management, in Graduate School of Science and Technology, vol. Ph.D: Kumamoto University, 1994.
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Empirical analysis of the linkages between the manufacturing and other sectors of the Nigerian economy
D. Salami & I. Kelikume
Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Lagos Business School, Lagos State, Nigeria
Abstract
This paper estimates the linkage between the manufacturing sector and other sectors of the Nigerian economy with the aid of a more dynamic estimating tool. The paper departs from the static Leontiefs input-output framework used by earlier studies and adopts the Granger causality test and the vector auto regression method, to determine the impact of changes in manufacturing output on the output of the other sectors and the effects of changes in output of other sectors on the manufacturing sector. Using quarterly time series data over the periods 1986 to 2010 the result shows a weak linkage between the manufacturing sector and other sectors of the Nigerian economy. The manufacturing sector output showed no causal relationship with real economic activities as measured by the real gross domestic product. It also had no causal relationship with the financial sector output. Only two major sectors building and construction and hotel and restaurant seems to be driving the manufacturing sector with the later exhibiting a bi-directional relationship with the manufacturing sector. Specifically, it takes approximately four to six quarters for most sectors to respond to the impact of shocks emanating from the other sectors the economy. Keywords: manufacturing sector, sectorial linkage, vector autoregression, granger casualty, real gross domestic product.
1 Introduction
The manufacturing sector makes significant contribution to economic development through its income and employment linkages with other sectors of the economy in both developing and developed countries. Prior to the twenty

first century, the manufacturing sector was seen as the main engine of economic growth Cornwell, [1]; Fagerberg and Verspagen [2]; and Timmer and de Vries, [3]. Events calumniating developmental changes in the twenty first century however, has accorded the service and telecommunication sectors an important place in the growth process in many developing and emerging nations, Szirmal [4]. In Nigeria, intensification of industrial activities is essential for driving the current Federal Government strategy for sustainable development and economic growth. However, the current state of the manufacturing sector leaves much to be desired. Recent data reveal that Nigeria is still operating at the extractive/primary stage of development, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin [5]. The sector currently faces a number of constraints ranging from low local content, weak legal and institutional framework, weak linkage among different segments of operations in the sector, low market access, low credit and in effective linkage between industry and research institutes. This study attempts an empirical analysis of sectoral linkage in Nigeria with a view to ascertaining the leading and lagging sectors of the economy. The results will be useful for policy formulation, in fast tracking the various development projects in the country. In this paper, we used a more dynamic method that applies the unit root test and the granger causality test to determine the impact of the linkages between the manufacturing sector and other sectors of the Nigerian economy. The paper is structured into five sections. Section I is the introduction while section II is the review of past literatures. Section III is the methodology and data analysis. Section IV is the empirical analysis, while section V is the conclusion and policy implications.
2 Literature review
There are important linkages and dynamic interactions between different sectors of the economy such that, the relationship between agriculture and industry is one of interdependence and complementarities Hwa [6]. Relatively, Norman, Tim and Marina [7] suggest that it is important to understand these intersectoral linkages since government policies are often aimed at boosting the output of particular sectors. Examining the link between services and manufacturing from the dimension of liberalization in Philippine, Pasadilla and Liao [8] observed that globalization and pressure from increased competition have caused a stronger linkage in the service and manufacturing sectors in most economies. Their analysis shed light on the kind of linkage that exist between the services and manufacturing sectors, whether services contribute significantly as an input to manufacturing sector output. Also, they expressed the relative contribution of services to the growth in manufacturing output as liberalization evolved. Pilat and Wolfl [9] focused on the linkage between services and manufacturing in a number of OECD member countries. They found that the value added from the services sector to manufacturing production has increased over time and reached up to a quarter of total output in certain OECD nations by the mid-1990s. Also they discovered a growing share of labour that officially belonged to the
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manufacturing sector basically engaged in service-related activities. Memon, Waqar and Muhammed [10] examined the causal relationship between manufacturing exports and agricultural GDP and found out that a major share of exports has strong backward linkages with the agricultural sector both in terms of primary and value added commodities, including a bi-directional Grangercausality between total exports and agricultural GDP. Applying the same test of causality, Shombe [11] investigates the causal relationships within agriculture, manufacturing and exports; he found evidence of Granger causality that agricultural outputs induce growth in exports and manufacturing. However, he established a positive relationship between real GDP, real exports, real manufactured exports, and real primary exports. Similarly, Khan [12] observed that the construction industry generates substantial employment and provides a growth impetus to other sectors, including the manufacturing sector, through backward and forward linkages. Following the empirical studies of Kwan and Cotsomitis [13], Lee [14], Kwan and Kwok [15] Wong and Tang [16] They observed that in recognition of the strategic importance of these sectors, both the manufacturing and service sectors; will continue to be the twin engines of growth, emphasizing that manufacturing and services mutually reinforce each other. They affirmed that diversifying the manufacturing sector to high value chain activities could generate derived demand for services ranging from logistics and ports to business and finance. In addition, they observed that, a strong complementary services sector could encourage more manufacturing activities capable of creating a mutually reinforcing growth cycle, even in the absence of causation. Therefore, they suggest an employment linkage running only from the manufacturing sector to the services sector and not in the reverse direction. This establishes the movement of the manufacturing sector upstream the value chain from downstream activities making an expansion of skilled workforce in this sector to potentially create employment in the services sector ranging from logistics and information technology to business and finance. 2.1 Empirical literature Empirical studies abound in the literature explaining sectoral linkage. Norman et al [7] used the vector autoregressive (VAR) framework and offered an account of the patterns of sectoral interdependence in Malaysias economy. This method facilitates the investigation of related concepts of exogeneity and temporal precedence or basically Granger-causality. They analyzed the data on Malaysian sectoral GDP and labour productivity using the logarithms of sectoral GDP in agricultural, manufacturing and services sectors. From their estimation, the results implied that in the long run only agriculture adjusts to sectoral disequilibrium within the economy and by virtue of the VAR(1) specification, the result indicates that agricultural output does not Granger-cause growth in the manufacturing or service sectors outputs. Interestingly, manufacturing and services sectors Granger-causes growth in the agricultural GDP. Moreover, they insisted that these results are informative regarding the relative importance of changes in manufacturing and services on the size of agricultural sector over the long term.

Relatively, Michael, Ali and Azmat [17] detected a two-way relationship in their empirical investigation of the spill over effects of services and manufacturing sectors in the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. They hypothesized that the growth of the services sector is influenced by the growth of the manufacturing sector and that the growth of the manufacturing sector can be influenced by growth in the services sector. The empirical outcomes support both hypotheses revealing a strong, positive bidirectional influence in the growth of services and manufacturing sectors. Specifically, they noticed that the increase in the growth of the services sector has also triggered a growth in demand for a variety of manufactured goods. Wong et al [16] used a tri-variate vector autoregressive (VAR) framework by implementing the Granger-causality test in a VAR framework and tested the individual time series of the three variables. Their results indicate that inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) does not promote employment in the manufacturing (EM) and service (ES) sectors because the time horizon of a 3month lag is too short for inward FDI to have any impact on EM and ES. Also, they found a unidirectional causality, running from EM and ES to FDI inflows and evidences showing strong employment linkages predominantly from the manufacturing to services sector.
3 Methodology
The paper is a clear departure from the input-output framework Leontief [18] and the sectorial linkage study by Hirschman [19], but it followed the approach adopted by Wong et al [16]. In accordance with Sims [20] we estimate a multivariate autoregressive models and used an unrestricted vector autoregressive model (VAR) to evaluate the manufacturing sector linkage with other sectors of the Nigerian economy. 3.1 Data analysis and model The data used for this study was obtained from the CBN [5]. The frequency of the data is quarterly and the sample ranges from 1980:1 to 2010: I. The variables used includes; Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), Manufacturing Output (MANU), Agricultural output (AGRI), Building and Construction Output (BUCN), Telecommunication and Post (TEPO), Financial Service Output (FINS), Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas (CRNG), Utility (UTIL), Wholesale and Retail Trade (WHRT), Hotel and Restaurant (HORT), Solid Minerals (SOLM), Real Estate (REST), and other Business Services (BUSS). The method used in the analysis is VAR modeling technique which is expressed as;
y1t 1 11 y1t 1 12 y 2t 1 11 y1t 2 12 y 2t 2 1t y 2t 1 21 y1t 1 22 y 2t 1 21 y1t 2 12 y 2t 2 2t

(1) (2)
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The VAR equation can be written more compactly as;
yt 1 yt 1 2 yt 2 u t
(3)
Where is an n x 1 vector and the js are n x n metrics and u t is an n x 1 vector of serially uncorrelated random error which has a multivariate normal distribution / u t ~
iidN(0, 2I). Assuming Y t is an n x 1 column vector
composed of all the transformed variables listed for this study. A VAR relates current values of Y t to past values of Y t and an n x 1 vector of innovations U t . The Granger causality test used for this study is based on the assumption that future values cannot predict past or present values. The test consists of estimating the following equations for the manufacturing sector and the level of economic activities (RGDP) over the periods 1986 Q1 to 2010 Q1 using data obtained from the central bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin.
LRGDP
t
t 1
LGDP t 1
t 1
LMANU
t 1
Ut
(4) (5)
LMANU t 0 1 LMANU t 1 2 LRGDPt 1 Vt

t 1 t 1
Where Ut and Vt are the uncorrelated error terms. Causality is determined by estimating equations five and six and testing the null hypothesis that
i 1
2i
n
0 and
2i
i 1
2i
0 against the alternative hypothesis
i 1
2i
and
i 1
0 for both equation respectively.
Similarly, to extend the linkage study to other sectors of the economy, we respecify the model as follows by incorporating other sector variables into the VAR model. From equation four and five, if the coefficients of
2i
are not statistically significant, then there exist a significant but unidirectional relationship between manufacturing output and RGDP with the causation moving from manufacturing output to RGDP. The reverse causation holds if the coefficient of
2i
are statistically
2i
are statistically significant while
2i
and are statistically significant, then However, if the coefficients of there exist a bi-directional relationship. Conversely, we can use the Granger causality test to establish the relationships between the variables in the economy. The null hypothesis of no causality is rejected if the F statistics exceed the critical values at the 1 percent, 5 percent or the 10 percent levels of significance. Given that most time series variables are non stationary, we will first establish the stationarity properties for each of the variables before estimating the VAR
2i
2i
are not.

model. All the variables will be tested for the presence unit root using the Dickey Fuller (DF), the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and the PhillipsPerron (PP) tests. 3.2 Empirical analyses The data used for this study was obtained from the CBN [5]. The frequency of the data is quarterly and the sample ranges from 1986:1 to 2010: I. The variables used in the study are in their natural log form. 3.2.1 Unit root test The stationarity test using the DF, ADF and the PP, are summarized in Appendix 1, Table 1. The null hypotheses of non-stationarity are performed at the usual one percent, five percent and ten percent levels using the Mackinnon [21] critical value for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root. The critical values for the test are presented in Table 2. The result of the DF tests indicate that all the data series are non stationary at their individual levels with the exception of BUCN, TEPO, FINS, CRNG, UTIL, WHRT, HORT and REST that passed the test of significance at the one percent and five percent levels of significance. Based on the ADF test and the PP test, all the variables became stationary at their first difference, passing the test of significance at the one percent levels with the exception of manufacturing output that passed at the five percent levels of significance in the ADF test at first differencing. The implication of this result is that analyzing the data set at their levels would yield spurious and nonsense correlation Granger and Newbold [22].
Appendix 1
Table 1:
Unit root tests: Nigeria sectoral output data, seasonally adjusted.

Series Lrgdp Lagri Lbucn Lbuss Lcrng Lfins Lhort Lmenu Lrest Lsolm Ltepo Lutil Lwhrt DF Test at Levels With Trend -0.3845 -1.2514 -2.0924** -1.6101 -1.7696*** -2.5054** -2.4968** -1.0105 -1.7407*** -0.2971 -9.0388* -8.2912* -15.2440* Lags 5 3 7 10 3 3 3 10 5 3 1 1 0 ADF Test in First Difference With Trend -3.9723* -3.9227* -4.6107* -9.7578* -4.6946* -3.3075* -3.8704* -2.4047** -3.4282* -4.3414* -9.1644* -9.0458* -11.6978* Lags 3 3 3 4 3 3 7 11 5 3 1 1 2 PP Test in First Difference With Trend -12.1531* -13.7785* -15.0732* -17.8754* -27.7415* -13.2291* -23.8516* -50.0076* -15.1752* -13.4322* -10.3163* -9.5011* -49.4911* BW 14 14 13 13 14 13 21 13 13 13 13 15 23
(1986:1-2010:1) The values *,** and *** indicates statistical significance at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively Source: Authors estimation using e-view 7
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Table 2:
Critical Value 1% 5% 10%
Mac-Kinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of unit root.

DF Test at Levels No Trend With Trend -2.5909 -3.6180 -1.9445 -3.0620 -1.6144 -2.7700 ADF Test in First Difference No Trend With Trend -3.5031 -4.0604 -2.8932 -3.4594 -2.5837 -3.1558
Source: Authors estimation using e-view 7 Table 3: Inter- sectoral causality tests of the sectors in the Nigerian economy.
Table 3b (Agricultural Sector Linkage) Direction of Lag F-Statistics Causality Length lagri Lutil Lsolm Lbucn Lrest Lwhrt Ltepo Lcrgn Lbuss Lhort Lfins lrgdp lmanu lmanu lmanu lmanu lmanu lmanu lmanu lmanu lmanu lmanu lmanu lmanu lmanu lrgdp 4 3 7 4 8 3 3 4 7 4 4 4 4 0.1911 0.8322 1.4201 2.7049** 1.4055 0.2996 0.3499 1.4008 1.2158 2.8401* 1.4276 0.9320 0.9214
Table 3a (Manufacturing Sector Linkage) Lag F-Statistics Direction Length of Causality 4 0.3526 lmanu lagri lmanu Icrgn Lmanu lbuss Lmanu lhort Lmanu dlrest Lmanu lsolm Lmanu ltepo Lmanu lutil Lmanu lwhrt Lmanu Bucn Lmanu lfins 4 7 4 8 7 3 3 3 4 5 2.3550** 0.5/544 5.8710* 2.5064** 1.1740 5.7848* 0.0197 3.8341* 1.5373 0.32289
The values *,** and *** indicates statistical significance at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively Source: Authors estimation using e-view 7
3.3 Sectoral interdependence test The Granger causality test is used to determine whether a change in the manufacturing sector output precedes the other outputs of other sectors within the Nigerian economy. The approach adopted for this study is similar to the approach adopted by Raze [23] study on the role of construction sector in economic growth for the Pakistan economy and the approach adopted by Chen

[24] on the linkage between construction and other economic sectors in Singapore. The Granger Causality test, in Appendix 1; Table 2, is used to test whether manufacturing sector stimulates the other sectors of the Nigerian economy and real economic aggregate as measured by RGDP or whether changes in the other sectors of the economy stimulates the manufacturing sector. 3.3.1 The manufacturing sector and the other sectors of the economy Table 3a demonstrates the sectoral linkage between the MANU and the other sectors of the Nigerian economy. The result shows that the MANU granger causes TEPO, CRNG, WHRT, HORT and REST. The relationship between the MANU output and the output of these sectors is a unidirectional relationship moving from the MANU to the various sectors. It takes approximately four quarters (one year) for CRNG and HORT to respond to changes in the MANU output. It takes eight quarters (two years) for REST output to respond to changes in the MANU sector while it takes three quarters (nine months) for TEPO output and WHRT output to respond to changes in MANU output. Therefore, it was noticed that MANU sector output responds to changes in two major sectors BUCN and HORT with the later exhibiting a bidirectional relationship with the MANU. The result showing the relationship between the MANU and RGDP is reported in Table 3b, the result shows that MANU output does not granger cause the RGDP and RGDP does not granger cause the manufacturing sector. 3.3.2 Other sectors of the economy and the manufacturing sector Building and construction: The estimates obtained from the granger causality test in Table 3b, disclose that the BUCN and the MANU sector outputs are unidirectional and statistically significant at five percent. This sector granger causes RGDP. Hotel and restaurant sector: Estimates of the granger causality test expressed, reveals that the HORT sector output granger causes MANU sector. The causal link from the HORT sector to other sectors in the economy depicts a unidirectional relationship which basically moves from the services rendered by the HORT sector to the other sectors in the economy. On the average, it takes close to four quarters (one year) for MANU to respond to changes in the HORT sector. This sector granger causes RGDP. Wholesale and retail trade sector: Changes in WHRT sector appear to have no immediate effects on all the sectors of the economy as shown in Table 3b. However, the WHRT sector output is preceded by changes in MANU sector. Relatively, the sector does not impact on the level of economic activity as measured by RGDP and changes in RGDP do not explain changes in the WHRT sector. Agricultural sector: Table 3b presents the report of the linkages between AGRI and other sectors; the result shows that AGRI did not precede MANU but it has a bidirectional relationship existing between agricultural output and SOLM sector. Also, it was noticed that AGRI output does not granger-cause RGDP and RGDP does not granger cause the agricultural sector.
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Financial sector: From the result it was detected that FINS does not grangercause the MANU output but it granger causes CRNG, BUCN, HORT, WHRT and CRNG sector. Utility sector: The UTIL sector which is made up of electricity and water only granger caused the level of output in the AGRI, CRNG and the FINS sectors. The UTIL sector does not granger cause MANU but it exhibits a bidirectional relationship with RGDP. This is an indication that a stable and reliable UTIL (i.e. power sector) is a sine qua non for sustainable growth and development in the Nigeria economy. Real estate sector: The estimates of the causality test expressed in Table 3b, reveals that REST does not granger cause MANU sector output but its granger causes CRNG, BUSS, BUCN, HORT, SOLM, TEPO and WHRT. It takes approximately six quarters for these sectors to respond to changes in the REST sector. The link between the REST and RGDP, takes 4 quarters (one year) to respond to changes in the level of economic activities and the relationship is unidirectional moving from RGDP to the REST. Telecommunications and postal service sector: The result indicates that the TEPO sector output indicate that this sectors output does not granger cause MANU. The result reveals that this sector has very small and in most cases insignificant influence on the other sectors of the economy. Other business service sector: The estimates obtained revealed that the BUSS did not granger cause MANU sector output but its output and the output of the CRNG, HORT, REST, SOLM, TEPO, WHRT and FINS sector are unidirectional which means, a one way casual relationships exist among them. In general the results expressed, states the fact that it takes over a year for the other sector in the economy to respond to changes in the BUSS and that the response of the MANU, AGRI, UTIL, and the BUCN sectors were statistically significant at both the one and five percent levels. This sectors output does not granger cause RGDP. Crude petroleum sector: The results disclose that the CRNG sector output does not granger cause MANU. Although it will take approximately four quarters for the MANU sector to respond to relatively similar impacts of a magnitude of change in the CRNG sector output at less significant impacts. Therefore, it is important to note that the nature of causality between these variables analyzed is unidirectional and CRNG output does not granger cause RGDP. Solid mineral sector: This result exposes the fact that there are no linkages between the output of the SOLM sector and MANU. Also, the MANU sector has low statistical significance in response of changes in the outputs of the SOLM sector. In addition, it takes the MANU sector about seven quarters, to respond to similar impacts from the SOLM sector outputs but these variables where found not to be statistically significant.
4 Discussions of findings
The findings of this study shows that manufacturing sector (MANU) granger causes BUCN, HORT and WHRT with the direction of causality moving from the MANU sector output to these sectors. Two major sectors, BUCN and HORT however, exhibited bidirectional relationships with the MANU sector. Further, the result indicates that there was no defined relationship between the MANU sector output and RGDP. The AGRI, FINS, UTIL, REST, SOLM, TEPO, CRNG and BUSS sectors output, does not granger cause MANU output. Also, it was disclosed that the impact of changes from the outputs of BUCN, HORT, UTIL, TEPO and BUSS sectors granger cause RGDP while others did not. Interesting is the fact that shocks from changes in RGDP has positive impacts on the outputs of CRNG, BUCN, HORT, UTIL and REST. The output of building and construction (BUCN), hotel and restaurants (HORT) and utility sector (UTIL) exhibited a bidirectional relationship with RGDP indicating that a stable and consistent increase in these sectors output is necessary and strongly associated to economic growth. Changes in the WHRT output precede changes in other sectors of the economy such as MANU, FIN and CRNG etc. The linkages between REST and RGDP take approximately four quarters to adjust to change in RGDP, from a unidirectional perspective moving from RGDP to REST. The HORT output was noticed to granger-cause other key sectors besides MANU sector. The effect of the shocks were unidirectional, they were noticed to move from services rendered by the HORT sector to other sectors of the economy. For TEPO output, its relationship with other sectors of the economy is minimal and its expected shocks effects are insignificant. While the BUSS exhibits a unidirectional relationship with most sectors of the economy. The financial sector output revealed a bidirectional relationship with the BUSS and BUCN. Also, SOLM contributed significantly to most of the key sectors of the economy but the impact of shocks from the output of this sector did not influence changes in MANU and RGDP. Worth knowing is the fact that the impact from the shocks of BUCN output relates cordially with the outputs of most of the sectors of the economy, but the effects of these shocks were minimal for the UTIL sector output.
5 Conclusion and policy implications

The paper carried out empirical test on the linkage between the manufacturing (MANU) sector and other sectors of the Nigerian economy using quarterly data from 1986 to 2010. The main idea behind this study is to observe the behaviour of the interrelations of all the sub-sectors of the Nigerian economy and their relationship with the level of economic activities as measured by real gross domestic product (RGDP). Interestingly, the result showed that there is no causal relationship between the real output and manufacturing sector output (MANU) in Nigeria. RGDP does not precede the manufacturing sector and the MANU sector does not precede RGDP. Only two major sectors Building and
697
Construction (BUCN) and Hotel and Restaurant (HORT) seems to be driving the manufacturing sector with the later exhibiting a bi-directional relationship with the MANU sector. A notable feature of the Nigerian economy is policy inconsistency. The findings of this study show that it takes approximately four to eight quarters for one sector to respond to changes in the other sectors on the economy hence the need for continuity, consistency and stability in Government policies. Also, the weak linkage between the various sectors can be linked directly to the problems of epileptic power supply, poor infrastructure, poor road net work and logistics, weak linkage between the manufacturing sector and the various research institutions which if properly addressed will put Nigeria on the path of sustainable development and economic growth.
References
[1] Cornwall, J., Modern Capitalism its Growth and Transformation, New York: St. Martins Press, 1977. [2] Fagerberg, J. and Verspagen, B. 1999. Modern Capitalism in the 1970s and 1980s, Working Paper Archive, 1999002, Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo. [3] Timmer, M. P. and Vries, G. J. de, A Cross-country Database for Sectorial Employment and productivity in Asia and Latin America, 1950-2005, GGDC Research Memorandum GD-98, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen, 2007. [4] Szirmai, A., Industrialization as an engine of growth in developing countries, UNU-MERIT Working Paper Series 010, United Nations University, Maastricht Economic and Social Research and training Centre on Innovation and Technology, 2009. [5] Central Bank of Nigeria, Statistical Bulletin, 50 Years Special Anniversary Edition, Central Bank of Nigeria, December, 2008. [6] Hwa, E. C., The Contribution Of Agriculture To Economic Growth: Some Empirical Evidence, in J. Williamson and V.R. Panchamurtchi (eds.), The Balance between Industry and Agriculture in Economic Development, Vol. 2, Sector Proportions. New York: The World Bank, 1989. [7] Norman, G. Tim, L. and Marina, M., Dynamic Sectorial Linkages and Structural Change in a Developing Economy. Credit Research Paper No. 98/3 p. 6, 2007. [8] Pasadilla, G.O. and Liao, C.M.M., Has liberalization strengthened the link between services and manufacturing? Discussion Paper Series DP 2007-13, Philippine Institute for Development Studies, p.2, 2007. [9] Pilat, D. and Wolfl, A., Measuring the Interaction between Manufacturing and Services, Working Paper, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Statistical Analysis of Science, Technology and Industry, 2005. [10] Memon, H.M., Waqar S.B., and Muhammed, A., Causal Relationship between Exports and Agricultural GDP in Pakistan, Munich Personal RePEd Archive Paper No. 11845 p. 2, 2008.

[11] Shombe, N.H., Causality Relationships between Total Exports with Agricultural and Manufacturing GDP in Tanzania, Institute of Developing Economies, Discussion Paper No. 136, 2005. [12] Khan, K., Employment of foreign workers male and female labour market participation, Office for National Statistics, UK, 2008. [13] Kwan, A. C. C. and Cotsomitis, J. A. K., Economic Growth and Exogeneity: Taiwan 1953-88, The American Economist, 28(4):467-471(5), 1991. [14] Lee, J.W., International Trade, Distortion and Long-run Economic Growth, International Monetary Fund Paper, 40(2):299-328, 1993. [15] Kwen, A. and Kwok, B., Exogeneity and the Export-led Growth Hypothesis: The case of China, Southern Economic Journal, vol. 61, pp. 1158-1166, 1995. [16] Wong, K. N. and Tang, T. C., Foreign Direct Investment and Employment in Manufacturing and Services sectors: Fresh Empirical Evidence from Singapore, Monash Economics Working Papers 15/08, Monash University, Australia. p.11, 2008. [17] Michael, D.C., Ali, A. and Azmat, G., An Empirical Investigation of the Spillover Effects of Services and Manufacturing Sectors in ASEAN Countries, Asian-Pacific Development Journal, 10(2):10, 2003. [18] Leontief, W., The Structural of America Economy 1919-1939, Second Edition Input Output Economic. Oxford University Press, 1951. [19] Hirschman, A. O., The Strategy of Economic Development, Yale University Press, New Haven, CT, 1958. [20] Sims, C. A., Macroeconomics and Reality Econometrica, 48 (10), pp.1-48, 1980. [21] Mackinnon, J. 1991. Critical value for Cointegration Test, In Engle, R.F and Granger, C.W.J, eds., Long-Run Economic Relationships, Oxford University press. [22] Granger, C.W.J and Newbold. P., Spurious Regression in Econometrics, Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111-20, 1974. [23] Raza. A.K., Role of construction sector in Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan Economy. First international conference on construction in developing countries (ICCIDC-I) paper p. 2, 2008. [24] Chan, S. L., Empirical test of discern linkages between construction and other sectors of the economy, Construction Management and Economic, vol. 19, Issue 4, pp. 355-363, 2001.
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Challenging limitations for achieving decentralization in terms of participatory planning in developing countries, case study: Egypt
A. A. A. M. Ibrahim
Department of Architecture, Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, Egypt
Abstract
Local governments, upon new roles and responsibilities regarding decentralization for achieving democracy, called for participatory planning and participatory budgeting approaches. However, many developing countries suffer from challenging limitations imposed by their local development laws. In this respect, the paper aims at elaborating a coherent understanding of the current process of governance in Egypt as one of the developing countries, in an attempt to identify the different roles of all stakeholders to enable determining the most appropriate intervention, and capacity building programs to achieve the decentralization. This would be presented through a precise analysis for the institutional framework, the planning and budgeting process in view of the strategic regional and local plans that are prepared for these levels, and the local participation of citizens, on application on Ismailia Governorate, as a pilot study. Accordingly, the paper comes out with results mapping out the technical challenges involved with the current system of planning and budgeting, together with analyzing the institutional changes that guarantee the integration of community participation. Keywords: decentralization, participatory planning, capacity building, institutional framework, community participation.
1 Introduction
Given the increased rates of urbanisation in developing countries, especially Egypt, tremendous challenges have been imposed on local governments as well as the communities to improve their managerial capacities to cope with the increasing dynamics and uncertainties derived from urban development. To address these challenges effectively, local governments have been addressing decentralization as a tool for achieving democracy, through the strategic urban management, participatory planning and budgeting to turn the whole planning process into an operationally workable framework. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to apprehend the current system of planning and budgeting and to map out the process which currently takes place on the level of the governorate, Markaz and villages/cities in Egypt, taking Ismailia Governorate as a case study. These processes were compared to those according to the law of local development in Egypt. This has enabled pointing out the mismatches to clarify the technical and institutional challenges for the implementation of decentralization through the application of the different participatory approaches, and for ameliorating the institutional framework by changing laws and emphasizing the required capacity building for all stakeholders in all planning levels.
2 Theoretical background
2.1 Decentralization and its significance Over the past two decades decentralization has become one of the broadest movements, and most debated policy issues, in the world of development. Manor [1]. Decentralization makes government more responsive to local needs by tailoring levels of consumption to the preferences of smaller, more homogeneous groups (Shah [2], Wallis and Oates [3], World Bank [4], UNDP [5]). Sustainable development is made possible by the effective decentralization of responsibilities, policy management, decision-making authority and sufficient resources, including revenue collection authority, to local authorities, closest to, and most representative of, their constituencies (United Cities and Local Government [6]). For a sample of 80 countries, Huther and Shah [7] find positive correlations between decentralization and indices of political participation, social development, a quality index of economic management, and an overall quality of government index. However, to achieve decentralization, it is vital to go through all the concepts related to strategic, participatory and participatory budgeting concepts. 2.2 Participatory and strategic planning concepts Participatory and strategic preparation of a general planning scheme has continued to take place worldwide and has been reported by many researchers including Healey [8], Innes [9], Ogu [10], and Steinberg and Sara [11]. The
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reportage reveals that participatory and strategic planning has replaced technocratic and comprehensive planning in terms of concepts and approaches to preparing and executing general planning schemes in several cities worldwide (Halla [12]). However, it should be clearly stated that, it is difficult for urban management to succeed if it is to operate within a rigid statutory framework (Wong et al. [13]). Clarke [14] suggests: Traditional master plans have been mainly static in nature, attuned to a scenario of slow urban growth, rapid population growth, lack of infrastructure and services, and shortages of funds and staff in a developing country city, require a more dynamic planning process. Rondinelli [15] also suggests an adaptive approach based on the concept of strategic planning should be explored to cope with, and to direct, the changing conditions under which development activities must be implemented. Rakodi [16] reinforces these propositions and suggests that the quality of urban planning and management should be improved by a stronger conceptualisation, by moving away from inflexible blueprint plans towards a combination of strategic and detailed action plans and programmes. As for the strategic planning itself, it is widely defined as a continuous and systematic process during which planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation are involved to achieve objectives, which emphasises the importance of getting the key stakeholders involved (Wong et al. [13]). This is directly correlated with all participatory approaches concepts. Accordingly, it is important to understand why participation itself is crucial. Most arguments in support of participation portray it as a means of improving both the performance and accountability of a bureaucracy that is outdated, unrepresentative, and underperforming (Barber [17], King et al. [18]).These arguments appear particularly relevant for developing countries. The literature on participation catalogues the virtues of civil society and public deliberation of issues (Cooper [19], Crosby et al. [20], Fox and Miller [21], Frederickson [22], Habermas [23], Putnam [24], Stivers [25]). A result is an increased call for direct citizen participation in public decision making (King et al. [18]). Among the most effective approaches related to that issue is the participatory budgeting approach. It is a decision-making process through which citizens deliberate and negotiate over the distribution of public resources. The enhanced transparency and accountability that participatory budgeting creates can help reduce government inefficiency and curb clientelism, patronage, and corruption (The World Bank [26]).
3 Analysis for the current planning and budgeting processes in Egypt

The aim of this section is to apprehend the existing situation in Egypt, taking Ismailia Governorate as a case study, through a clear analysis for the current situation concerning the institutional framework, the developed visions and budgets for Markazs and Governorates, the planning process in view of the strategic regional and local plans that are prepared by the General Organization

for Physical Planning in Egypt (GOPP), the budgeting process and the local participation of recipients of the services. All these points would be analyzed and then compared with that stated by the Law of Local Development. This is an attempt to specify the main problems and defects existing in the overall governmental system. This is achieved through specialists analytical survey on all decision-making levels and interviews with the different stakeholders including the staff in the Governorate General Secretary, the planning and follow-up administration, the urban planning administration, the village development administration, urban planning of the villages committee in the Local Executive Council (LEC), the planning and budgeting committee, all interviewed on the Governorate, district, and village levels, with a number of community leaders, and local citizens. 3.1 Current situation analysis 3.1.1 Brief analysis of the institutional framework It is crucial to completely apprehend the governmental framework on the administrative level and also map the relation between different administrations and departments, on the strategic planning and budgeting level in respect to the LPC (Local Popular Councils) and the LEC (Local Executive Council) structures. There are five prototype cells or units of public councils repeated along the hierarchal organization of the governorate. This illustrates the members of the LPC component on each level: the governorate, the Markaz, the city, the district (hay) and the village. The three effective of which is first that at the village level (Wehda Mahalia). They identify the requirements and needed projects after consultation with the public and community leader. The second is at the Markaz level which collects all the proposed plans, and discuss/communicate them again in order to reshape the projects in the light of other interventions in adjacent areas or at the Markaz level in general. The third is at the Governorate level in which final list of plans and budgets are elevated to be discussed and refined in the light of a strategic vision. 3.1.2 Planning and budgeting process mechanism The budgeting process in Ismailia governorate mainly begins with the main unified plan coming from the Peoples Assembly Parliament and distributed on the governorates, with specified amount of funds. This plan deals only with five main sectors which include: Roads, electricity (light poles), environment enhancement, supporting local unit of villages, and finally security, extinguishment unit, and traffic. The Planning and Follow-up Administration (PFA) in Ismailia Markaz requests from the head of each village (or city) to communicate with their community representatives in the LPC to present their projects proposals and needs (i.e. roads pavement, cleaning tools needed, light poles,..etc), together with their priorities list. The PFA delivers these standard forms that the head of the village/city finally fills according to the meetings conducted and communications with the community representatives; then the filled forms get
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delivered back to PFA at the Markaz level, and this takes place for the five Markazs constituting Ismailia. The PFA in Ismailia Markaz should have all these forms delivered to the LPC at the Markaz level, and reviewed by the planning and budgeting committee in this level, then to the local popular council at the governorate level, finally up to the Planning and Follow-up Administration at the governorate bureau. During the process of identifying the required projects/interventions and prioritizing them, it is possible on any levels, for the LPC to revise, modify or enhance the list of projects and their priorities. All these forms after being approved at the governorate level, are transformed up to the Ministry of the Local Development (MoLD) and the economic development units at the Ministry of Finance (MoF). However, there are other main stakeholders who play very important roles in the planning and budgeting process mechanism; they are represented by the village development administration, the urban planning committee, the local citizens participation, and finally the community leaders. The Village Development Administration arranges meetings with three main stakeholders categories including the youth, women and elderly representatives. They mainly discuss the projects and priorities of the youth and the women with the third one and accordingly make decisions. They give priority to the less developed locations regardless any developmental views or strategic plans or scientific methods. These priorities are registered in a formal report signed by all the LPC and LEC members, the normal leaderships and finally the head of the village who does not have a true effective authority more than signing the report. The priorities lists developed by the LPCs at the village level are sent to the urban planning unit at the LEC at the district level, in which the projects, especially the roads, are to be allocated on maps to test their validity, determine the land properties in which they pass, and give priorities to paving uncompleted part, or short distances, or even linking paved roads together. However, community leaders have emphasized the fact that the planning process executed and officially taking place by the PFA with all its levels are completely isolated from all the small villages and their real needs. 3.1.3 Budget allocation and distribution The funds approved by the Ministry of the Local Development (MoLD) and the economic development units at the Ministry of Finance (MoF) are finalized and re-allocated to the Planning and Follow-up Administration (PFA) at the governorate level, then the funds are distributed as per the following percentages: 10% of the funds for the main capital city (Ismailia city and 3 main urban zones (Ahyaa), 30% of the funds are for the common projects between Markazs, 60% of the funds are for the Markazs (half for the common projects between the villages and the other half is for the villages). 3.1.4 Coordination between stakeholders It is vitally important to highlight how the co-ordination with the stakeholders takes place with respect to the local development projects, herein by referred to as internal co-ordination, and the line ministries projects, which formulates the

external co-ordination between the governmental structure and the related ministries. First, for the internal coordination, within the different players in the planning and budgeting process, there is a lack of coordination and communication, even at the very basic level of delivering and sharing the plans/projects form. It is extremely obvious that there is absolutely no coordination between the line ministries plans and the local government plans, each authority is functioning in isolation of all the other authorities planning unit. The popular councils can only make proposals about their needs for schools, health units, hospitals and other services and infrastructure that are delivered afterwards to the related ministry through the governorate. However, these ministries operate on different level and may or may not respond to these requests.
4 Role of the strategic planning in the planning and budgeting process

The role of the strategic planning should be explained with respect to main five stakeholders. First, the urban planning administration at the governorate level, its main tasks include the follow-up of all the planning works, supervision on land properties, boundaries and divisions, revising the master plans of the unplanned areas, co-ordination between the different stakeholders, and the new regional proposed projects, and other spatial dimension of interventions. This means that strategic planning does not enter into any of its scope of works. From the field visits, it was evidently clear that there is no connection between the local development plans approved by all levels of the Planning and Follow-up Administration (PFA) and the urban plans proposed by the GOPP for the different villages and the cities. There is another very important problem, although the GOPP has completely finished the master plans for all the villages in Ismailia district and Ismailia city, none of these works have reached the urban planning administration with all its levels. To sum up, there isnt any kind of coordination or communication between the GOPP, their works, and any of the staff of the urban planning administration in Ismailia governorate with all its levels. The GOPP with all their proposed plans are completely isolated from the local normal stakeholders in the governorate and away from reality and real people needs. However, the staff in this administration is relatively aware of strategic planning main concepts, but of course ignore everything about its mechanism, implementation methods, criteria......etc, and all embedded details. Second, the urban planning administration at the markaz level reviews the priorities of the projects sent from the villages LPC through the village development administration. It is worth mentioning that it performs jobs strictly limited to allocating the projects in their most suitable locations according to individual and personal experiences and regardless any regional views or strategic plans. Moreover, most of the staff in this unit is assigned to jobs regardless their major specialization. Third, the planning and follow-up administration is strictly committed to receiving the projects priorities lists and forms, then allocating and distributing the available funds according to the
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number of population. This happens in complete ignorance of any strategic or regional plans proposed by any governmental or non-governmental authorities. Fourth, the village development administration, in which the process of determining the projects priorities, and their allocation approval almost depend on the personal skills and the informal relationships between the general manger of the village development administration with all their staff and the members of the LPC and the LEC together with the normal leaderships. The staff here also ignores everything about maps and strategic planning concepts. Finally, the community leaders originally suffer from being unheard from all their representatives at the LPC. Accordingly, they are completely isolated from any strategic urban plans formulated by the GOPP or any of the authorities in the urban planning administration with all its levels.
5 Analytical comparison for the planning and budgeting framework as per stakeholders versus local development law
5.1 Institutional framework The institutional framework constitutes many organization levels. However, the stakeholders discussion facilitated the sketching of more simple organization charts. It was clear that many stakeholders lack complete understanding of the structures, elections, periods, and hierarchical organizations for the LPCs and the LECs. 5.2 Planning and budgeting process 5.2.1 Planning and budgeting process mechanism The planning and budgeting mechanism according to the planning and follow-up unit was almost the same as that stated by the law. However, other stakeholders have emphasized the fact that the planning and budgeting process mechanism only takes the legal form, and implements all the procedures stated by the law theoretically only. This is apparently clear from the fact that the planning and follow-up unit might sometimes ignore the approval of the LPC at the markaz level, and shifts it directly from the village level to the governorate level. Another fact is that the projects priorities are mainly settled down through the personal skills and relationships of the village development administration staff, and the limited technical skills of the urban planning committee at the LEC at the markaz level regardless the integration with the Supreme committee of regional planning clearly stated by the law. In addition, the community leaders emphasize the fact that they are not involved by any mean in making the lists of the required projects or prioritizing them. 5.2.2 Budget allocation and distribution The budget allocation and distribution is executed according to the percentages stated by the law. However, the criteria of the internal distribution among

villages is limited to one issue, which is the number of population, although there should be other criteria taken into consideration including the areas, distances, developmental levels, and uncompleted projects. 5.2.3 Coordination between stakeholders First, as for the internal co-ordination, the law clearly states the vitality of the unity and harmony between all stakeholders in the governorate, and what happens is exactly the opposite. Every administration just performs its jobs and makes sure it follows legal procedures, regardless any other lower or higher level needs. This is definitely clear in shifting the projects lists from village to governorate levels, and in the primitive role played by the urban planning administration in guiding the required projects and prioritizing them. Concerning the external co-ordination, although the co-ordination with all the ministries is clearly emphasized by the law concerning the integration between their developmental plans and the required projects lists, none of them refer to any LPC or LEC authorities, when it comes to actual execution of the projects. 5.3 Role of strategic planning in the planning and budgeting process The law clearly states that all the projects requested should be consistent with the regional developmental plans prepared by the Supreme council of regional planning and other planning authorities. However, what happens is that the GOPP for example have finalized the master plans for the villages and the cities without making any attempt to give it to the urban planning authorities in the governorate except recently to the village level only. These were limited to the urban boundaries and services maps, and which proved to be far from reality. Moreover, the urban planning authorities in the governorate in all its levels are not involved by any means, in the process of determining the required projects or prioritizing them except by minor modifications at the markaz level. Therefore, although the law does not clearly refer to certain strategic planning approaches to be followed, it refers to the importance of integrating these projects with the whole regional view, the fact that is completely away from reality.
6 Deduced problems
6.1 Problems regarding achieving strategic planning These include many points that can be listed as follows: 1. Insufficient funds, as they do not cover people needs, and this is because the villages and cities are very much under developed and the required intervention projects are enormous and usually beyond the typically allocated budget. 2. Markaz level not fully involved, as interventions and project plans is transformed from village/city level up (sometimes) doesnt recognize the Markaz level. 3. The process of selecting representatives of residents or candidates to make critical decision about development plan is not necessarily a transparent and clear one, and does not always lead to the appropriate candidates. 4. The lack of spatial dimension in projects distribution is clear, and therefore the proposed projects may be situated
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in areas that affect its functioning and serviceability. 5. Ineffectual head of cities and villages. This certainly wastes a lot of resources and lead to making wrong decisions 6. Lack of coordinated projects. Strategic planning for villages/cities requires high level of coordination and consideration on a larger scale. Currently there is not any sort of coordination between the proposed interventions neither in the same village/city nor between neighbouring villages/cities. 7. Lack of a monitoring and evaluation system. 8. Personal skills and relationships are the main criteria for selecting the projects priorities. 9. Lack of experienced specialized engineers in the urban planning units on all levels.10. Lack of coordination between the Supreme Council of Regional planning and GOPP and all the LPCS on all levels. 11. Small village units (following the wehda mahalia) are completely isolated from the local development plans formulated by their LPC. 13. Other strategic planning issues including: incomplete projects have no priority in the up-coming plan, and lack of integration between local plan and ministries plans. Moreover, there are certain doubts about possibility to shift decentralization from central government to the governorate level only. 6.2 Problems regarding achieving decentralization These can be summarized in the following points: 1. It became an inherited culture to have a lack of trust between popular councils and execution bodies in the local governorate level. 2. The communication channels between the central government and the local government requires more improvement, transparency and to be more frequent. It is crucial to have a dynamic system to share, transform, update and modify the budgeting plan. 3. There is no common agreement upon organisation chart and the lack of extremely clear scope of work for individual positions in the process allow for overlap in activities in addition to gaps in the process that is not covered. Another crucial challenge is that there is no solid agreement about the terms and conditions of planning and budgeting. 4. Complexity of the decentralization project executers. It is obvious that the decentralization programme in Egypt involves different setups of projects that include (different relevant ministries as well as international organizations such as USAID, UNDP and UN-Habitat). It is crucial to identify and clarify the roles each group is playing in order to avoid dropped tasks or overlapping activities. 5. Criteria of distribution of funds ignores, many factors that has to do with the success of the project and its serviceability; the size, in terms of population or area, are not the only factors that should be considered while allocating funds, other criteria such as level of development, size of project, impact of intervention, need of communityetc) are all factors that shall be part of the funds distribution criteria. 6. The process of planning and budgeting does not always proceed in this recognized manner as there are sometimes instructions from higher authorities to override some decisions, or sometimes there is a need to speed up certain projects (giving priority due to external factors) and this affects the overall progress of other projects. 7. In addition to the incompetency form city/village mayors, and the bad representation of residents, there is also an unaccepted level of corruption at the lower level especially the villages.
7 Recommendations
The complexity of the decentralization process makes it a challenge to identify specifically the areas of intervention in order to guarantee sustainable and effective improvement in the process. However, based on the above analysis, the paper has come to certain recommendations, which include the following. First, the recommendations related to strategic planning include the introduction of the strategic planning concept in simple and understandable manners, increasing the available funds to match with the real needs of people and develop strategic plans in the light of availability of these resources, involving all stakeholders on all levels in the strategic planning process, assuring that strategic plans are developed with people in a participatory manner through activation of community sessions and institutionalizing the transformation of local needs through LPC to executive bodies, incorporating urban planners in each engineering department in the local government level, capacity building through provisions of training to candidates in positions of making decisions about development plan (i.e. village/city mayor, head of technical department,etc)., and finally increasing awareness about the importance of participation among the residents on all levels. Second, as for the recommendations related to decentralization, they include promoting transparency to strengthen the relation between local government and LPC, redefining the roles and responsibilities of different stakeholders, improving the communication mechanisms between the different players vertically, between the governorate, Markaz and village/city level; and horizontally among the same level but in neighbouring villages, developing coherent and realistic database in order to help the decision making process in regards to the intervention plans and their level of effectiveness, and finally, developing systems that matches as much with the current law and channelling the modifications, as much as possible, within the current legal framework.
8 Conclusion
In view of Egypts plans to implement decentralization and modify the local development law in an attempt to contribute to effective local village/city development by supporting local stakeholders through strategic and participatory planning approaches, it was crucial to apprehend all the current planning and budgeting processes on all village, quarter, city, district (markaz), and governorate levels. Therefore, this paper has presented a thorough analysis for the current situation regarding these processes, which was then compared to the existing local development law to identify points of weakness and challenges, on application on Ismailia Governorate. The paper has come up with the fact that all these processes are still influenced by the idea of central planning and characterised by inflexibility, inadequate responsiveness and lack of representative public participation, a shift of the existing management approach to strategic management is essential, given that it can provide urban management practitioners with a way to enhance
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capacities in handling changes and volatility. Therefore, the final output of the paper was in the form of recommendations regarding both the strategic planning and decentralization approaches implementation in Egypt. They generally addressed the vital need for the capacity building, revisiting the institutional framework, and finally decentralizing the resources to allow the local government to control developing the villages/cities with minimum intervention from the central government.
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank Eng. Amir Gohar, for being a very cooperative team mate in processing the report about Ismailia, upon which this paper is based, as part of consultancy tasks in the Strategic National Development Support Project with the UN HABITAT, in Cairo.
References
[1] Manor, J., Lecture given at Technical Consultation on Decentralization for Rural Development, Rome, 1618 December, 1997. [2] Shah, A., Balance, Accountability and Responsiveness: Lessons about Decentralization, World Bank, Washington DC Policy, research working paper 2021, 1998. [3] Wallis, J.J., Oates, W.E., Decentralization in the Public Sector: An Empirical Study of State and Local Government, In: Rosen, H.S. (Ed.), Fiscal Federalism: Quantitative Studies, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1988. [4] World Bank, World Development Report, Infrastructure for Development, Oxford University Press, New York, 1994. [5] United Nations Development Program (UNDP), 1993. Informe Sobre Desarrollo Humano, CIDEAL, Madrid, 1993. [6] United Cities and Local Government, 2007, Decentralization and Local Democracy in the World, First Global Report, the Research Network on Local Government in Europe (GRALE), www.cities-localgovernments.org [7] Huther, J., Shah, A., Applying a Simple Measure of Good Governance to the Debate on Fiscal Decentralization, http://info.worldbank.org/ etools/docs/library/128808.pdf,1998. [8] Healey, P. (1994). Planning through debate: The communicative turn in planning theory, Town Planning Review, 63(2), pp.143162, 1994 [9] Innes, J., Planning through consensus building: A new view of the comprehensive planning ideal. Journal of the American Planning Association, 62(4), pp. 460472, 1996. [10] Ogu, V., Stakeholders partnership approach to infrastructure provision and management in developing world cities: Lessons from the sustainable Ibadan project, Habitat International, 24(4), pp. 517533, 2000.

[11] Steinberg, F., & Sara, L., The Peru urban management programme: Linking capacity building with local realities, Habitat International, 24(4), pp.417431, 2000. [12] Halla F., Critical elements in sustaining participatory planning: Bagamoyo strategic urban development planning framework in Tanzania, Habitat International, 29 (1), pp. 13716, 2005. [13] Wong S.W., Tang B., Horen B., Strategic urban management in China: A case study of Guangzhou Development District, Habitat International, 30 (1), pp. 645667, 2006. [14] Clarke, G., Towards appropriate forms of urban spatial planning, Habitat International, 16(2), pp.149165, 1992. [15] Rondinelli, D., Development Projects as Policy Experiments: An Adaptive Approach to Development Administration, London: Routledge, 1993. [16] Rakodi, C., Forget planning, put politics first? Priorities for urban management in developing countries, International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geo information, 3(3), pp. 209223, 2001. [17] Barber, Benjamin, Strong Democracy: Participatory Politics for a New Age. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1986. [18] King, Cheryl Simrell, K. M. Feltey, and B. ONeill Susel, The Question of Participation: Toward Authentic Public Participation in Public Administration. Public Administration Review, 58 (4): pp. 31725, 1998. [19] Cooper, Terry L., Citizenship and Professionalism in Public Administration. Public Administration Review 44 (Special Issue): pp. 143 49, 1984. [20] Crosby N., Janet J., Kelly, and Schafer P., Citizen Panels: A New Approach to Citizen Participation. Public Administration Review, 46 (2): pp. 17078, 1986. [21] Fox, Charles J., and Miller Hugh T., Postmodern Public Administration: Toward Discourse, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 1996. [22] Frederickson, H. George, 1982. The Recovery of Civism in Public Administration, Public Administration Review 42 (6): pp. 50108, 1982. [23] Habermas, Jurgen., The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1989. [24] Putnam, Robert. 1993, Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993. [25] Stivers C., Citizenship Ethics in Public Administration. In Handbook of Administrative Ethics, ed. Terry L. Cooper, 43555. New York: Marcel Dekker, 1994. [26] The World Bank, Participatory Budgeting, Public Sector Governance and Accountability Series, ed. Shah A., Washington, D.C., 2007.
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Nigerias industrial development: issues and challenges in the new millennium

D. D. Ajayi
Department of Geography, University of Ibadan, Nigeria
Abstract
Perhaps one major problem facing Nigeria today that has received little or no attention remains her low industrial base. Indeed, apart from South Africa and Egypt, both of which are outside tropical Africa, the contribution of manufacturing to the economy of Nigeria, places Nigeria far behind the Newly Industrializing Countries (NICs) of the South East Asia. Manufacturing in Nigeria has largely been dominated by a valorization of raw materials and import-substitution type that are capital intensive rather than labour intensive. In addition, the absence of heavy industries and car manufacturing has militated against effective transfer of technology hence the heavy investment in manufacturing. There is the general low level of inter-industry linkages-failure on the part of industries to utilize the products/by-products of other industries especially in the production process. Studies on manufacturing in Nigeria have focused on small-scale industries and some behavioral aspects of manufacturing at the regional level. In some cases, explanations have been offered in terms of factor endowments. The last three or four decades have largely witnessed a reorientation in industrial geography and especially in a globalizing economy whereby a lot of emphasis is placed on inter-industry linkages, and especially networks of production subcontracting in the development of industrial activities and the economy as a whole. This paper thus seeks to examine the extent to which Nigerias manufacturing has been affected by inter-industry linkages, and especially production subcontracting, and the challenges for Nigerias manufacturing/industrial development in the new millennium. Keywords: import-substitution, valorization, privatization, commercialization, inter-industry linkages, production subcontracting.
1 Introduction
Nigeria remains a major industrial country in the West African sub-region and Africa south of the Sahara. Although, few studies have focused on manufacturing activities within the country, most of these have largely focused on some aspects of manufacturing especially at the regional level, small-scale industries and local crafts. Perhaps, Schatzl [1] Ayeni [2, 3]; Mabogunje [4] studies on the spatial pattern of manufacturing provide a good starting point on detailed studies of manufacturing in Nigeria. The consensus is that manufacturing is concentrated in a few cities, and especially the state capitals. These concentrations have usually been explained in terms of specific principles of industrial development. With little attention given to the emerging pattern despite the changing phases of manufacturing and industrial development policies. From mere crafts works in the earliest time to valorization of raw materials through import substitution to local sourcing of industrial raw materials in recent times. In addition, the absence of heavy industries and car manufacturing has militated against effective transfer of technology hence the heavy investment in manufacturing has led to a relative neglect of other sectors of the economy, especially agriculture. There is the general low level of interindustry linkages While several studies on production subcontracting have been conducted in the western world, especially the United States of America and Great Britain, studies on industrialization in Nigeria, have largely focused on the examination and analysis of single components of industrial activity or the spatial distribution and development of manufacturing industries. Other studies have focused on the nature and characteristics of small-scale industries and some behavioral aspects of manufacturing at the regional level. In some cases, explanations have been offered in terms of factor endowments. As a precursor, this paper presents a holistic view of the industrial development of Nigeria with particular emphasis on to the spatial pattern, the temporal trend, and the extent to which industrial development in the country has been influenced by contemporary globalization of industrial activities. Globalization here is viewed with specific reference to industrial production subcontracting, an emerging strategic industrial production technique integrating the world industrial development. Contemporary thinking in industrial geography and especially in a globalizing economy places a lot of emphasis on inter-industry linkages, and especially networks of production subcontracting in the development of industrial activities and the economy as a whole. The paper seeks to examine (i) the extent to which Nigerias manufacturing has improved over the years? (ii) what factors have been responsible (if any) for this improvement? (iii) what is the extent of inter-industry linkages, and especially production subcontracting in Nigerias manufacturing, and (iv) what are the challenges for Nigerias manufacturing/industrial development in the new millennium? In addition, the paper takes a look at the issues of privatization and commercialization of industrial concerns.
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2 Industrial development experience in Nigeria

The growth in industrial activities discussed in this section is in three phases. These are the pre-colonial era; early post-colonial era; and events since the mid1980s. 2.1 Pre-colonial era The pre-colonial era, that is, the pre-1900 economy of Nigeria featured considerable craft industries in the various clans and kingdoms; modern factory activity was then hardly known (Onyemelukwe [5]). Prominent among these craft industries that featured in local and inter-regional trade, were artifacts of wood, brass and bronze, leather, hand woven textiles and bags, iron workings and fire burnt pottery from local clay. The various zones specialized in different crafts closely linked with the available raw materials However, the crafts industry has declined considerably following the superior competition from modern industrial activities, particularly manufacturing. Onyemelukwe [5] notes that Nigeria has embraced the factory type industrialization as the main panacea to her underdevelopment. The coming of Europeans, especially in the wake of formal trade contact, brought about the first widely recognized forms of modern industrialization. Slave trade yielded priority of place to legitimate trade (Flint [6]), in industrial raw materials obtainable in this part of West Africa. The need then arose for valorization (Aboyade [7]; Mabogunje [8]; Ayeni [2]; Onyemelukwe [5]). Considerable finishing operations including printing and publishing, baking and furniture works, also featured from the beginning. Whereas processing was geared towards the rapidly expanding export trade on a relatively large scale, the finishing operations served only to meet domestic demand, which was then relatively small and geographically localized. However, the Nigerian industrial scene changed after the end of the Second World War, in at least two respects (Adegbola [9]; Onyemelukwe [5]) with respect to the traditional demand from Europe for industrial raw materials following the post war reconstruction needs and global resumption of full-scale activity in trade and industry, and the post war economic boom in raw material export and a sharp rise in the general purchasing power and investment potential of indigenous businessmen brought about growth in the number of manufacturing establishments. The transformation in the Nigerian economy during the post war years was faced with low level of technology and the small size of the available indigenous manpower thus industrial development involved the assembly-type pattern of import substitution. Full-scale industrialization involving the production of basic capital goods could not be embarked upon. The gradual assumption of political decision-making power by Nigerians during the 1950s enhanced the substitution of capital goods import or raw material imports for consumers goods. Onyemelukwe [5] notes that of the 47 industrial establishments in the country in the pre-1947 period, 21(44.71 per cent) were engaged in processing activities. The remaining 26 (55.3 per cent) establishments were engaged in the finishing

aspects of manufacturing. Out of the 26, as many as 15 (31.9 per cent) establishments were small printing works and bakeries. All these had the bulk of their patronage among the few foreign (mainly European) administrators, missionaries and merchants. 2.2 Early post-colonial era The post-colonial era was characterized by vigorous import substitution and the beginning of decline for the export-oriented processing of raw materials. The policy of import substitution, which was meant to reduce dependence on foreign trade and save foreign exchange however led in the direction of mere assemblage of foreign, produced items rather than manufacturing per se. At independence, there were only about 150 plants of medium and large scale size in the industrial sector majority of which were established in the late 1950s. By 1965, however, the number of medium and large scale firms had risen to 380 arising from the intensification of the process of import substitution and the establishment of firms to undertake domestic manufacture of goods hitherto imported, though still largely dominated by low technology light industries. Items manufactured include food, beverages and tobacco. The engineering sector was dominated by metal furniture and fixtures, structural metal products and fabricated metals. The manufacture of agricultural and special industrial machinery and equipment, household apparatus, and transport equipment share of value added was quite low. (see Teriba et al. [10]). This growth in manufacturing however witnessed a period of lull following the political crisis, which culminated in the civil war until the early 1970s. As a part of the reconstruction efforts, the Second National Development Plan, 1970-74, which had the objectives of a united, strong and self-reliant nation; a great and dynamic society; a just and egalitarian society; a land of bright and full employment for all citizens; and a free and democratic society, had as its major policy thrust: to promote even development and fair distribution of industries in all parts of the country; ensure a rapid expansion and diversification of the industrial sector of the economy; increase the incomes realized from manufacturing activity; create more employment opportunities. Others include: to promote the establishment of industries which cater for overseas markets in order to earn foreign exchange; continue the programme of import-substitution, as well as raise the level of intermediate and capital goods production; initiate schemes designed to promote indigenous manpower development in the industrial sector; and raise the proportion of indigenous ownership of industrial investments. In order to do these, the government laid down priorities and initiated measures to achieve them such as reconstructing damaged industrial capacities, the promotion of expansion of the intermediate and capital good industries in order to raise the contribution of value added in the manufacturing sector, and the promotion of rapid industrial development etc. The situation continued in this manner to the mid-1980s.
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2.3 Events since mid-1980s The industrial sector of the Nigerian economy improved over the years. The relative share of manufacturing industry in the GDP increased from 19.8 per cent in 1966/67 to 32.4 percent in 1971/72 (Teriba and Kayode [11]). However, the manufacturing sector has witnessed considerable decline since the mid-1980s. For instance, Table 1 shows that the percentage share of manufacturing in Nigerias gross value added decreased from about 17 per cent in the early 1980s to 13 per cent in 1987, and 10.7 per cent in 1993 and 12.1 per cent in 1994. The share of manufacturing in the GDP decreased from 9.2 per cent in 1981 to 6.8 percent in 1987, 5.5 per cent in 1993 and hovered around 6.0 per cent in the years between 1994 and 2002. The number of industrial establishments which increased from 421 in 1964 to 1,293 in 1975, and 2,360 in 1989, decreased to 1,891 in 1993. The number of industrial employees which increased from 64,965 in 1964 to 93,270 in 1969 (excluding eastern region) decreased to 27 102 in 1989 but increased again to 244,243 in 1985 (Schatzl, [1]; FOS, [12]; Federal Ministry of Industries [13]; MAN [14]). Nigeria's manufacturing consists largely of assembly plants with little or no backward linkage in the economy. This is because the bulk of inputs were imported (Schatzl [1]; Corfrey et al. [15]; Ayeni [2]). The few industries that have any form of backward linkage are rooted industries such as tin smelting in Jos, timber and plywood factories at Sapele, and cement factories at Ewekoro and Sagamu. Most industrial activities were linked to industries in foreign countries both for the final consumption goods and intermediate products (Nwafor [16]; Adegbola [9]). Table 1: Some aspects of Nigerias manufacturing, 1981-2002 (at current prices). ______________________________________________
Year % of Total Value Added 17.0 17.3 17.1 14.8 16.4 16.2 13.0 14.3 10.5 10.9 11.9 % of GDP 9.2 9.6 10.0 7.8 8.7 8.7 6.8 7.5 5.3 5.5 5.9 Year % of Total Value Added 10.0 10.7 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A % of GDP 4.8 5.5 6.6 6.6 N/A N/A 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.0
______________________________________________
Source: Federal Office of Statistics: National Accounts of Nigeria, 1981 to1994; CBN-Annual Report and Statement of Accounts, 2003.
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
The Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) was in part adopted in July 1986 to redress the prevailing industrial scenario (Ukwu [17]) which apparently pushed capacity utilization up from 30 per cent at the end of 1986, to 36.7 per

cent by mid-1987 (MAN [18]), 40.3 per cent in 1990, 42.0 per cent in 1991 and 41.8 per cent in 1992 but witnessed a decrease to 29.3 per cent in 1995 and 32.5 per cent in 1996 (Nigeria [19]). However, the situation deteriorated for some highly import dependent industries like electrical/electronics, basic metal, iron and steel, and vehicle assembly where capacity utilization has fallen below 10 per cent (Ajayi [20]). A recent survey of manufacturing industries by the Central Bank of Nigeria [21] shows that capacity utilization rate increased to 46.2 per cent in 2002. Although, average capacity utilization rate increased in Lagos area, Enugu, and Bauchi zones to 59.1, 51.1 and 35.5 percent respectively but declined in Kano and Ibadan zones to 42.6 and 43.0 per cent respectively. Some industries now obtain raw materials locally within Nigeria. For instance, the level of local sourcing of materials in selected industrial sectors between 1987 and 1989 is shown in Table 2. Table 2: Level of local sourcing (%) of raw materials in Nigeria, 19871989. _________________________________________________________
Industry Group Food, Beverages and Tobacco Wood and Wood Products (Including furniture) Non-metallic Mineral products Textiles, Wearing Apparel and Leather Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals Domestic and Industrial Plastic and Rubber Basic metal, Iron and Steel and fabricated metal products Motor vehicles and Miscellaneous assembly Electrical/Electronics Pulp, Paper and paper products, printing and publishing Average Jan-Jun 1987 65.2 Period Jun-Jul 1988 62.7 Jun-Dec 1988 63.0 Jan-Jun 1989 62.0
7.6 76.5 52.4 31.5
N.A 88.4 52.5 36.3
N.A 85.0 57.0 63.0
N.A 81.0 62.0 37.0
20.6
53.0
48.0
45.0
49.7
39.7
30.0
30.0
21.8 19.3
N.A N.A
N.A N.A
N.A 10.0
13.7 42.8
15.7 49.7
42.0 52.0
46.0 46.0
_________________________________________________________
Sources: Adapted from Ajayi (1998).
The revitalization of the industrial sector to promote the development of other sectors and the entire economy has attracted a major consideration in the National Rolling Plans, as policy objectives include the achievement of maximum growth in investment and output, and expansion of employment. An
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average growth rate of 0.8 % was projected in the First Rolling Plan (1990-1992) for this sector. This was expected to increase its share of the GDP to slightly over these targets and expected to be achieved through improvement in capacity utilization in existing industries and increased investment in new ones, as well as more effective implementation of relevant policy reform measures. These policy measures include strengthening administrative machinery, implementation of the privatization and commercialization policy, local sourcing of material raw materials, and the promotion of Small-scale industries [Federal Republic of Nigeria [19]], but generally lacking in strategies to achieve the set objectives.
3 Spatial pattern of industrialization

The spatial pattern of industries discussed here pertains to the number of firms as found in the various locations within the country. Although, earlier studies have confirmed that manufacturing activities in Nigeria are concentrated in a few states and primarily in a few cities, which are mainly, state capitals, ports and major administrative centres (Schatzl [1]; Mabogunje [8]; Adegbola [9]; Onyemelukwe [22]; Ayeni [2]). Thus, there are spatial disparities in the distribution of industrial establishments. Ajaegbu [23] has shown four industrialurban conurbations in Nigeria. These are: Lagos-Ibadan, the Kano-KadunaZaria-Jos, Benin-Sapele-Warri, and Port-Harcourt-Aba-Onitsha-Enugu conurbations. This spatial disparity in the distribution of manufacturing activities have often been explained in terms of the need for the valorization of raw agricultural products or the treatment of raw materials for export, or through the principle of import substitution adopted by the Nigerian governments as their industrial planning strategy (Ayeni [2]). The result of valorization means the establishment of manufacturing industries in areas where natural resources such as agricultural products and minerals are found [Abiodun and Aguda [24]]. In spite of the successive development plans aimed at even distribution of industrial activities in all parts of Nigeria, industrial activities are still concentrated in a few locations (see Table 3). The pattern of the distribution of manufacturing industries at the city level in 1989 indicates that there is a marked concentration of manufacturing establishments in the southern part of the country, and especially Lagos in the southwest. The leading position of Lagos in the southwest is clearly shown by the size of the proportional circle. Other locations of relative high concentration of industrial establishments are Kano in the North; Ibadan and Benin in the southwest; Enugu and Port-Harcourt in the southeast. While manufacturing establishments are concentrated in several locations in the south, they are found in a few locations in the north. This industrial concentration is further reflected, and has thus form the basis for the choice of the Lagos region for Ajayi [20, 25 30] works on industrial linkages within the Lagos region, and with other parts of the country.

Table 3: Manufacturing industries in Nigeria, 1989.
____________________________________________________________________ S/No State No. of % S/No State No. of % Estabs. of Total Estabs. of Total 1. Abia 0 0.0 16. Katsina 8 0.3 2. Adamawa 5 0.2 17. Kebbi 0 0.0 3. Akwa Ibom 40 1.7 18. Kogi 12 0.5 4. Anambra 101 4.3 19. Kwara 33 1.4 5. Bauchi 8 0.3 20. Lagos 768 32.6 6. Benue 37 1.6 21. Niger 17 0.7 7. Borno 33 1.4 22. Ogun 71 3.0 8. Cross River 59 2.5 23. Ondo 34 1.4 9. Delta 88 3.7 24. Osun 20 0.8 10. Edo 121 5.1 25. Oyo 90 3.8 11. Enugu 84 3.6 26. Plateau 46 2.0 12. Imo 171 7.3 27. Rivers 212 9.0 13. Jigawa 0 0.0 28. Sokoto 17 0.7 14. Kaduna 42 1.8 29. Taraba 19 0.8 15. Kano 216 9.2 30. Yobe 2 0.08 31. FCT 1 0.04 Total 2,355 100.0 ____________________________________________________________________ Source: Federal Ministry of Industries-Abuja cited in Ajayi [20].
4 Recent trends in Nigerias industrial development

The section focuses on networks of industrial linkages as occasioned by industrial production subcontracting (a strategic positioning of industrial activities), and privatization in Nigeria industrial development. 4.1 Industrial production subcontracting experience The Nigerias experience shows that production subcontracting linkages started in the early 1960s, the post-independence period. The earliest stage in the adoption of production subcontracting as an industrial production technique in Nigeria was characterized by insignificant growth, and a rapid growth thereafter. However, there was marked variation in the adoption of production subcontracting by industry groups over the years (Ajayi [20, 27]). Whether in terms of number of contractors involved or volume of production subcontracting, textiles, wearing apparels and leather industry group dominates the productionsubcontracting scene. While the number of subcontractors engaged by any contracting firm ranged from one to a maximum of four, over fifty per cent of the contractors engaged the services of a maximum of two subcontractors. The number of subcontractors engaged varied markedly especially in food, beverages and tobacco; chemicals and pharmaceuticals and textiles, wearing apparel and leather industry groups (see Ajayi [20, 28]). The dominant form of subcontracting is speciality subcontracting mainly carried out by independent subcontractors over short distances. Production subcontracting became very important after the introduction of the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP)
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in 1986, and it is perceived by industrialists as very important in reducing the costs of production. The volume of production subcontracting defined in terms of the monetary values increased and varied significantly amongst the contracting firms over the years (see Ajayi [20, 25] for details). It is further shown that there is no significant relationship between the volume of production subcontracting and the size and structural characteristics of contracting firms. It is only in the motor vehicles and miscellananeous assembly industry group that production subcontracting accounted for more than thirty per cent of the total costs of production in any of the years. Textiles, wearing apparel and leather industry group accounted for the largest volume of production subcontracting in any of the years. While all the industry groups are involved in production subcontracting within the Lagos region, only five of the industry groups carried production subcontracting beyond the Lagos region. Production subcontractors are concentrated in Lagos, Ikorodu, Sagamu and Ibadan in the Southwest; Jos, Kaduna, Zaria, Kano, and Sokoto in the north; and a few other locations such as Benin, Owerri, Port-Harcourt and Ilorin. For instance, in textiles, wearing apparel and leather industry group, spinnards and yarn are received from subcontractors in Ikorodu, Kano, Lagos, and Zaria, while tarpaulin materials are received from subcontractors in Zaria only (Ajayi [20]). The spatial distribution of production subcontracting activities is significantly explained by the number of industrial establishments in the various locations (see Ajayi [20, 28] for details). 4.2 Commercialization and privatization of industrial concerns A major aspect of globalization is commercialization and privatization of industrial concerns which literarily translates to the transfer of government owned shareholding in designated enterprises to private shareholders, comprising individual and corporate bodies (FRN [31]). In essence, the government has a restrictive role to play which simply is that of the maintenance of law and order (Ndebbio [33]). Privatization in Nigeria has its root in the economic liberalization decree of 1982 which later culminated in the issue of commercialization and privatization of public enterprises two years later. By 1986, the government announced its intension to divest government holdings in some public enterprises, especially the ailing parastatals. The Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) then introduced has its integral part in the rationalization and commercialization/privatization of public enterprises (NES [34]). In 1988, the policy thrust legalizing commercialization and privatization of Public Enterprises (PEs) now Bureau for Public Enterprises (BPE) was promulgated (Commercialization and Privatization Decree No. 25). Other industrial policy instruments include the New Industrial Policy of 1989 widely accredited as a replacement of the amended indigenization policy of 1977 to specifically encourage foreign investments and allowing indigenous businesses to benefit from the National Economic Reconstruction Fund-NERFUND (Ndebbio [35]), and the Nigerian Investment Promotion Decree No. 16 and the

Foreign Exchange (Monitoring and Miscellaneous Provision) Decree No.17 of 1995. All these were directed at both indirect and direct investment in the Nigerian economy for improved productivity, growth and development. Nigeria has thus adopted the macro institutional approach to privatization through: lessening the dominance of unproductive investment in public sector; improving the sectors efficiency; intensifying the growth potential of the private sector; trimming down the size of the public sector; and contributing to the solution of the countrys fiscal problem, etc. Privatization of industrial concern in Nigeria has received little empirical investigation. For instance, Udeaja [36] has shown that although the two (insurance) firms investigated recorded significant increase in taxation after privatization, positive improvement in wage income, the share of wage income in the value-added of the firms and the share of workers wages to the companys overall value-added. Perhaps, Onyeonoru [37], on globalization and industrial performance is instructive here. Most studies have analyzed the policy thrust of commercialization and privatization in Nigeria (see Obadan and Ayodele [38]; Oriakhi [39]; Odiase-Alegimenlen [40]; Okoh [41]). There is no known study that has succinctly analyzed the issue of privatization on the industrial sector of the Nigerian economy.
5 Challenges in the new millennium

Given the spate of industrial growth, it is hoped that the spatial pattern could change if industrialists adopt the strategy of industrial linkages, and especially production subcontracting which has become a driving force in contemporary industrial development strategy in the world today. The Japanese experience has shown that the promotion of industrial subcontracting in economic development is largely motivated by the participation of small entrepreneurs who are largely involved in production subcontracting - an industrial production strategy which can launch a developing economy like Nigeria into a world industrial nation. Such motivation could come in either of two forms. On the one hand is the encouragement of retirees to set up small business units with the sole aim of producing parts or sub-assembly of products for large firms. On the other hand, the government is involved in the setting, and facilitating collaborative ventures between large and small-scale enterprises, especially in the hinterlands. Indeed, Mabogunje [4]; Ajayi [20, 2529]; and Abumere [42] have argued that production subcontracting is a major industrial strategy that could be used to launch Nigeria into the desired industrial nation. This is especially so given the nations privatization and commercialization policies, and the development of the Export Processing Zones (EPZs) in Lagos, Port Harcourt and Calabar. This will further encourage the local sourcing of industrial raw materials given the ongoing privatization and commercialization policies in the industrial development Nigeria.
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[1] Schatzl, L. (1973), Industrialization in Nigeria: A Spatial Analysis. Weltforum- Verlag. Munchen. [2] Ayeni, B. (1981a), The Spatial Distribution of Manufacturing Industries in Nigeria. Technical Report No 2, Department of Geography, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria. [3] Ayeni, B. (1981b), Spatial Dimension of Manufacturing Activities in Nigeria. Technical Report, Department of Geography, University of Ibadan. [4] Mabogunje, A. L. (1990), Industrialisation within an Existing System of Cities in Nigeria. In Ayeni, B. and A. Faniran (eds), Geographical Perspectives on Nigerias Development. Published by The Nigerian Geographical Association, Jumark (Nig) Ltd., Ibadan, Nigeria. pp 64-79. [5] Onyemelukwe, J.O.C. (1983), Structural and Locational Characteristics of Manufacturing. In: Oguntoyinbo, J.S., O.O. Areola, M. Filani (eds), A Geography of Nigerian Development. 2nd edition. Heinemann Educational Books (Nig) Ltd. Ibadan, Nigeria, pp. 296-310. [6] Flint, J.E. (1960), Sir George Goldie and the Making of Nigeria, Oxford University Press. [7] Aboyade, O. (1968), Industrial Location and Development Policy: the Nigeria Case, Nigerian Journal of Economics and Social Studies, Vol. 10(3). [8] Mabogunje, A.L. (1973), Manufacturing and the Geography of Development in Tropical Africa Economic Geography, Vol. 49, pp. 1-20. [9] Adegbola, K. (1983), Manufacturing Industries. In Oguntoyinbo J.S. (eds). A Geography of Nigerian Development, 2nd edition, Heinnemann Educational Books Ltd, Ibadan. pp. 326-338. [10] Teriba, O; E.C. Edosien and M.O. Kayode (1981), The Structure of the Nigerian Economy, In: Teriba, O; E.C. Edosien and M.O. Kayode, The Structure of Manufacturing Industry in Nigeria, University of Ibadan Press. Chapter 2, pp. 13-28. [11] Teriba, O. and M.O. Kayode (1977), Issues in Industrialization. In: Teriba, O. and M. O. Kayode (eds), Industrial Development of Nigeria: Patterns, Problems and Prospects. Ibadan University Press, Ibadan, Nigeria. [12] FOS (1979), Federal Office of Statistics: National Accounts of Nigeria, 1981-1994. [13] Federal Ministry of Industries (1989), Manufacturing Industries in Nigeria, 1989. [14] MAN (1983), Manufacturers Association of Nigeria: Directory [15] Corfrey, M. et al (1979), Rural Urban Migration in a Lewis-Model Context: The Manchester Journal, No 47. [16] Nwafor, J. C. (1982), Manufacturing I: Consumer Goods. In: Barbour, K. M. et al (eds), Nigeria in Maps, Nigeria Publishers Services Ltd., Ibadan, pp. 106-107.

[17] Ukwu, I.U. (1994), Industrialisation and Economic Development in Nigeria: the significance of the Structural Adjustment Programme. Nigerian Journal of Economic and Social Studies, 36(1, 2, 3), pp. 434-448. [18] MAN (1983), Manufacturers Association of Nigeria: Directory. [19] Federal Republic of Nigeria (1990), First National Rolling Plan 1990-1992. National Planning Office, Federal Ministry of Budget and Planning, Lagos. [20] Ajayi, D.D. (1998), Spatial Patterns of Production Subcontracting in Nigeria: a case study of the Lagos Region. Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Geography, University of Ibadan, 221pp. [21] CBN (2003), Central Bank of Nigeria: Statistical Bulletin. [22] Onyemelukwe, J.O.C. (1978), Structural and Locational Characteristics of Manufacturing. In: Oguntoyinbo J.S et al (eds), A Geography of Nigerian Development, Heinemann Educational Books Ltd. [23] Ajaegbu, H.I. (1976), Urban and Rural Development in Nigeria. London. [24] Abiodun, J.O. and A.S. Aguda (1988), The Distribution of Manufacturing Industries in Kwara state, Nigeria. Nigeria Geographical Journal, Vol. 30 and 31, (1&2), pp.103-114. [25] Ajayi, D.D. (2000), The Determinants of the Volume of Production Subcontracting in Nigeria, Nigeria Journal of Economic and Social Studies (NJESS), Vol. 42(1): 95-111. [26] Ajayi, D.D. (2001), Industrial Subcontracting Linkages in the Lagos Region, Nigeria. The Nigerian Journal of Economic and Social Studies (NJESS), Vol. 43 (2): 265-277. [27] Ajayi, D.D. (2002), Temporal Pattern of Production Subcontracting in Nigeria, Annals of the Social Science Academy of Nigeria. Numbers 14 & 15: 67-81. [28] Ajayi, D.D. (2003a), Nature and Scope of Production Subcontracting in Nigeria, Africa Development, Vol. XXVIII, Nos. 3 & 4: 89-111. [29] Ajayi, D.D. (2003b), Spatial Pattern of Production Subcontracting in Nigeria, Research for Development Journal, Vol. 17 (1&2), pp. 27-50. [30] [30] Ajayi, D.D. (2004), Growth Pattern and the Industrial Development of the Lagos Region, Nigeria, Indonesian Journal of Geography, Vol. 36, Number 2, pp. 85-94. [31] Federal Republic of Nigeria (1988), Ministry of Commerce Industries, Abuja. [32] Ajayi, D.D. (2007), Recent Trends and Patterns in Nigerias Industrial Development, Africa Development, Volume. XXXII, Number 2, pp. 139155. [33] Ndebbio, J.E.U. (2003), Towards Privatization and Industrial Investment: Priorities for Sustainable Growth and Developments in Akwa-Ibom State of Nigeria, Nigerian Journal of Economics and Development Matters, Volume 1(1), pp. 45-60. [34] Nigerian Economic Society (1988), Privatization of Public Enterprises in Nigeria, Proceedings of the 1988 One-Day Seminar. [35] Ndebbio, J.E.U. (1997), Towards and Industrial Investment: Priorities for Sustainable Growth and Developments in Akwa-Ibom State of Nigeria,
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[36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42]
Nigerian Journal of Economics and Development Matters, Volume 1 (1), pp. 45-60. Udeaja, A.E. (2003), Evaluation of the Privatisation Performance: Evidence from the Privatised Insurance in Nigeria, Research for Development, Volume 19 (1&2), pp.191-220. Onyeonoru, I. (2003), Globalisation and Industrial Performance in Nigeria, Africa Development, Vol. XXVIII, Nos. 3 & 4, pp. 36-66. Obadan, M.I. and A.S. Ayodele (1998), Commercialization and Privatization Policy in Nigeria. National Centre for Economic and Management Administration (NCEMA), Ibadan, Nigeria, 206 pages. Oriakhi, D.E. (2001), Examining the Benefits of Privatization: the case of Nigeria, The Nigerian Economic and Financial Review, Vol. 6 (2), pp.7390. Odiase-Alegimenlen, O.A. (2003), An Evaluation of the Objectives of the Current Privatization Exercise in Nigeria, Law. Social Justice and Global Development (An Electronic Law Journal), Issue 2, pp. 1-12. Okoh, R.N. (2004), Global Integration and the Growth of Nigerias NonOil Exports, Paper Presented at the African Conference, 21-22, March. Oxford, U.K. Abumere, S.I. (2002), Industrial Linkages and Development in Nigeria. In: Aboyade, B. and S. Abumere (eds), Players in the Development Process: Essays in Honour of Murtala A. Adetunji. Fountain Publications Ltd, Ibadan. Chap. 10:205-230.
Section 10 Transportation
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Planning sustainable e-mobility

O. Schwedes
Chair of Integrated Transport Planning, Berlin Institute of Technology, Germany
Abstract
A popular current topic for urban as well as for transport planning is e-mobility. In the foreseeable future, the electro vehicle will be used mainly for short distances, making it particularly interesting for urban mobility. Therefore, e-mobility seems to be the future path for a sustainable urban and transport development. The contribution challenges this assumption by presenting the results of a recent research project in Berlin. Within this project, the decisionmaking process of establishing the charging infrastructure was analysed. By combining a discourse analysis and a policy study, the proponents for e-mobility, as well as their intentions can be shown. The contribution will further show that particular interests promoting e-mobility do not necessarily coincide with a comprehensive planning strategy presenting a concept leading to sustainable urban and transport development. Keywords: e-mobility, sustainable planning, discourse analysis, policy study, implementation process.
1 Introduction
A popular current topic for urban as well as for transport planning is e-mobility. In the foreseeable future, the electro vehicle will be used mainly for short distances making it particularly interesting for urban mobility. Therefore, e-mobility seems to be the future path for a sustainable urban and transport development. From this perspective, planning for e-mobility automatically appears as a sustainable planning strategy. The contribution challenges this assumption by referring to the results of a recent research project in Berlin where the automobile manufacturer Daimler, and the energy provider RWE, in close collaboration with the local political and administrative representatives, started a fleet test with 100 electro Smarts [1].

Within this project the decision-making process of establishing the charging infrastructure was analysed. By using the combination of a discourse analysis and a policy study it can be identified who argues for e-mobility and with what intention. The analysis presents different actors with particular interests trying to legitimize their strategy by alleged sustainable e-mobility. Particularly the interaction between RWE and the local political and administrative representatives reveals serious differences. One of the main problems, which will lead to numerous conflicts in the public realm, concerns the additional urban space needed by electro vehicles for their charging. The contribution will show that particular interests promoting e-mobility do not necessarily coincide with a comprehensive planning strategy presenting a concept leading to sustainable urban and transport development.
2 The discourse
To provide a better understanding of the recent debate about e-mobility in general, and the pilot Project in Berlin in particular, we have chosen the methodological approach of discourse analysis (2.1). On the one hand, it puts the e-mobility discourse into a societal context (2.2) and, on the other hand, it makes clear the argument in favour of e-mobility (2.3).
Figure 1: 2.1 The method
The discourse process.
Following the approach of a critical discourse analysis in the tradition of Michel Foucault (e.g. Jger and Jger [2]), we carried out a media analysis of three German national daily newspapers and two weekly newspapers [3]. Our analysis went as far back as the 1960s but focused on the period from 1990 to 2010.
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Moreover, we did a secondary data analysis of programmatic documents by key stake holders we identified with the media analysis. The first result was that we became aware of an e-mobility discourse having taken place in the 1990s, but then largely ignored for several years, before having been taken up again in 2007. Against this background we particularly took into consideration the emobility discourse of the 1990s. comparing it with the current one in the context analysis to identify the commonalities and differences of both discourses. 2.2 The context In comparing the e-mobility discourse of the 1990s with that of the present, we found clear similarities. In both cases it was an international phenomenon and the discourse was motivated by the coincidence of an economic crisis in the automotive industry and a peak in the environmental debate. The pressure by the economic crisis on the one side, and the need for legitimisation in the environmental debate on the other led the automotive industry to discussions with its critics (e.g. Schwedes [4]). A central topic was the question whether the automotive industry had to be transformed from a single car producer to a mobility service provider. Beside this fundamental reorganisation, car manufacturers were asked to invest into new drive engineering. In the early 1990s the US-State of California passed the Zero-Emission-Vehicle-Mandate which forced car manufacturers to develop electric vehicles (e.g. Westbrook [5]). This motivated General Motors to build the EV1 which was rented by 11,000 private users. Ford again invested into Pivco, the small Norwegian manufacturer of electric town vehicles. European car manufacturers were also engaged in inventing the e-vehicle. Germany, for example, started a research project on the island of Rgen (e.g. Hoogma et al. [6]). But at the same time that international car manufacturers were putting much effort into developing electric vehicles they also took action against the Zero-Emission-Vehicle-Mandate. Ten years later, in 2003, the California law was drastically scaled back because of massive pressure from the automobile and oil industries (e.g. Collantes [7]). During the same year, General Motors took all EV1s from the market, Ford withdrew from its engagement in electric town vehicles in Norway, and the German research project on Rgen was canceled. Thus, while the first mobility discourse had slowed down considerably during the 1990s, it had virtually come to a stop by 2003. The second e-mobility discourse started in 2007 under similar conditions. The automotive industry was again faced with a deep economic crisis and another peak of the environmental debate, this time about climate change (e.g. IPCC [8]). As in the case of the first e-mobility discourse not the automotive industry was the forerunner of e-vehicles, but the energy providers were expecting a new market. Because of the economic crisis in the automotive sector, and as a representative of one of the highest CO2 emitters, the automotive industry was interested in e-vehicles to improve their image. As had been the case in the 1990s, they had to act from the defensive and, therefore, by announcing the imminent production of e-vehicles were providing a symbolic policy.

In the meantime, the societal context had changed again. The financial and economic crisis seemed to be over, especially in the automotive industry, and the discourse over climate change had calmed down, also because of the critique of the Climate Report of the International Panel of Climate Change. Against this background the question arises whether or not, as in the 1990s, the e-mobility discourse will once again fall silent. In contrast to the 1990s, apart from the economic and the ecologic debates, there is a new theme which might be strong enough to sustain the second e-mobility discourse: oil depletion. 2.3 The argument Even if the e-mobility discourse continues to remain on the political agenda, it is open to debate whether or not it will be part of a sustainable planning strategy. On the one hand, it will depend on the argument put forward and, on the other, on the influence of the stakeholders in the field of transport policy (cf. chapter 3). A discourse is founded on terminology. Therefore stakeholders who possess a high power of definition will be able to influence the direction and form a discourse will take (e.g. Fairclough [9]). In the discourse on e-mobility, the term itself is striking. Mobility indicates a potential of free motion, has and should not to be confused with physical movement, which, per definition, is traffic. Thus, instead of e-mobility, we should talk about e-traffic even it does not have a very positive ring to it. But it is part of the e-mobility discourse to produce positive images about electric vehicles and their contribution to a sustainable transport development. In analysing the e-mobility discourse, e-vehicles appear as the great white hope for a sustainable transport development. In fact the e-mobility discourse is very much focused on private electric cars. The central argument for e-vehicles already came in the 1990s from Pivco, the above-mentioned Norwegian manufacturer of electric town vehicles: Surveys show that in urban settings most cars rarely travel for more than 50 km a trip, and on average carry less than two people (Pivco [10]). The statement was the answer to the critique of the short distance of e-vehicles and is a central argument in the recent discourse as well. In other words, the shortcomings of the electric car as a technical artefact are used as an argument for the car as a perfect form of urban transport. With respect to the long lasting scientific debate about urban transport in Europe reaching back to the 1970s (e.g. Banister [11]), the emobility discourse executes a fundamental shift. Whereas the debate on urban transport during the last decades was shaped by a wide consensus about the problematic effects of cars in towns, particularly referring to the immense land consumption (e.g. Grling and Steg [12]), the e-mobility discourse argues for a rehabilitation of the car in urban transport. This argument irritates city officials pursuing another transport policy, as we will see in the following analysis of the policy process.
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3 The policy process

In addition to the discourse analysis, we were studying the implementation of the charging infrastructure for e-vehicles in Berlin. In order to get insights into the policy process we performed an actor-based policy analysis (3.1). That leads us to a topography of the stakeholders and their particular interests (3.2), and an understanding of the special results at the end of the implementation process (3.3). 3.1 The method The combination of discourse and policy analysis is an innovative approach (e.g. Kerchner and Schneider [13]; Howarth and Stavrakakis [14]). The policy analysis pursues an actor- and structure-centred approach to explain the decisionmaking processes on the micro- and meso-level (e.g. Schubert and Bandelow [15]). The priority objective was the reconstruction of the problem-solving process which included the interaction of different stakeholders, each with their own particular interests and conflicting constellations. We carried out thirteen guided expert interviews with stakeholders from administration, politics, and industry, thereby enabling us to obtain a topography of the actors involved within the implementation process.
Figure 2:
Topography of the actors.
Starting with this mere static picture in analysing the implementation process, and with recourse to the discourse analysis, we went on to elaborate the figuration of social power structures during the decision making process. 3.2 The implementation process The e-mobility project in Berlin must be analysed in the context of the e-mobility discourse. As an answer to the economic crisis, the German government started the biggest business activity support programme of the post-war period. One

component in this programme is e-mobility as formulated in the National Development Plan Electric Mobility [16]. The most active economic players in Germany are the four big energy providers, first and foremost of these being RWE [17]. RWE has announced its intention to build up a nationwide charging infrastructure for electro-vehicles. In 2009 they started the pilot project in Berlin with about 100 charging points in two areas [18]. With a letter from the management board to the governing mayor of Berlin, RWE was the driving force behind the implementation process. In accordance with the federal government and its Development Plan Electric Mobility, the governing mayor of Berlin immediately gave the corresponding instructions to his administration. At this point, the first conflict appeared when the external energy provider RWE claimed the rights to an exclusive representation in Berlin. That was unacceptable for the Berlin administration, as well as for the local energy provider Vattenfall, which was initiating its own e-mobility project. The unfair compromise was an agreement on an exclusive representation of RWE and Vattenfall which excluded other energy providers. The land Berlin then had to convince the local authorities of the two municipalities Mitte and Charlottenburg/Wilmersdorf. This was the second stumbling block in the implementation process provoking a conflict between the land Berlin and the two municipalities. As in the case of the economic rivals RWE and Vattenfall, the land Berlin and the municipalities were competing for political responsibility (e.g. Nissen [19]). Thus the local authorities were
Figure 3:
Diagram of the implementation process.
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sceptical about the instruction from the land. However, faced with the exceptional circumstances of the economic crisis, and the resulting time pressure, the municipalities fulfilled the land Berlins request. In the next step, the energy provider RWE and the municipalities got into contact. The relationship was burdened by RWEs ignorance of the political system, RWE being unable to understand the operation of a city state such as Berlin with two political levels. RWE did not accept the local authorities as negotiating partners but treated them as subcontractors of the land Berlin. As we will see, this misperception probably led to the most lasting conflict of the whole implementation process, because it widely ignored the special local interests. Finally, the local authorities had to explain to their citizens that public parking space had to be designated as charging areas for e-vehicles. For most people this privilege for e-vehicles was hard to understand, also because these free parking places were left unused as a result of a delivery delay. What happened was a legal action by inhabitants against parking places designated for e-vehicles. 3.3 The result As a result of the conflicts described above, the implementation process was blocked. This was articulated by the local authorities in October 2010 at a hearing to which the land Berlin invited the municipalities to report their experience with the realization of the charging infrastructure by RWE. Referring to the local authorities, the main trouble spot is the multiple-use conflict of the public realm. There was a wide consensus about the public urban space as a common good which has to be managed for the good of all inhabitants. If the parking places to be used for charging e-vehicles reflects the public good, it must be discussed politically and balanced with a range of other types of use in the context of an integrated planning strategy followed by the land Berlin and its municipalities (e.g. SenStadt [20]). The integrated planning strategy includes a number of measures combined to achieve a sustainable transport development. One main target is the reduction of car traffic, starting with parking space management, the reservation of parking space for Carsharing and bike rental systems. But even with a view to private bicycles, there is a large gap between the supply and the need for parking space: 22,000 existing cycle parking areas compared with the 60,000 required. Moreover, the land Berlin and its municipalities have adapted to the needs of all users by decreasing areas formerly used primarily for roadways. Two- or threelane roads have systematically been reconstructed by decreasing the space allotted to motor traffic in order to establish specially marked bicycle paths and pedestrian walkways. It is anything but clear how e-vehicles will be integrated into the comprehensive planning strategy and what their contribution can be to a sustainable transport development. The land Berlin and the local authorities are very much afraid that private e-vehicles will be used as second cars and so undermine their planning efforts for a sustainable transport development.

The alternative strategy of the land Berlin is based on three pillars: (1) the integration of e-vehicles in carsharing fleets; (2) the integration of e-vehicles in urban commercial transport; and (3) the integration of e-vehicles in public fleets of housing estates (e.g. Blmel [21]). For every single application a charging infrastructure in the public urban space is probably not necessary.
4 Summary
The investigation of e-mobility by a combination of discourse and policy analysis revealed useful information for a sustainable planning process. First of all, the discourse analysis sensitizes us to the social character of the recent discourse compared to that of the 1990s. The astonishing parallels between both discourses, and the failure of the first one, relativise the current e-mobility discourse. Neither have the technical basic parameters changed in a way that could explain an updated success of e-mobility nor have the arguments become more convincing than they were in the 1990s in regard to the economic crisis or the environment. Oil depletion might be the one and only exception and perhaps it will lead e-mobility to become a success story. But even then, the discourse analysis shows that e-mobility will not necessarily contribute to a sustainable transport development as it will focus primarily on private urban vehicles. Such a contribution would depend on the specific position of e-mobility within an integrated transport planning strategy. The policy analysis in turn demonstrates different actors involved with their particular interests. It reveals specific lines of conflict which have to be recognised by an implementation or rather planning process. Otherwise, as was demonstrated with the e-mobility pilot project in Berlin, the implementation process could be blocked and, in fact, could endanger the potential of e-mobility for a sustainable transport planning process. This again raises the old question of the possibilities and limits of an integrated transport policy (e.d. SchllerSchwedes [22]).
5 Conclusion
E-mobility is a complex topic including much more than the mere technical dimension. Thus, current discourse cannot be explained by technological innovations alone. In order to ascertain whether or not e-mobility will contribute to a sustainable urban and transport development, it must be put into the right context. This starts with the term itself: e-mobility refers to e-transport or more accurately, e-cars. Therefore, the question has to be reformulated to ask if and how e-cars will contribute to a sustainable urban and transport development. This conceptualisation will open up a debate about the e-vehicle as one element amongst others in an integrated urban and transport development strategy. In consequence it would be a much more sensible and realistic future perspective. Behind the e-mobility discourse in analysing the e-mobility project in Berlin we identified certain actors who are following particular strategies in their own interest. It was shown that an undirected process might endanger the goal of a
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sustainable transport development. If e-cars are to be included in a comprehensive approach of sustainable urban and transport development, the described political conditions must be take into account. In view of a sustainable urban and transport development, the crucial question will be how the different stakeholders can be committed to an integrated planning strategy. For this the discourse and the policy analysis both give valuable insights which can be used for planning sustainable e-mobility.
References
[1] www.ikt-em.de/de/e-mobility.php [2] Jger, M. & Jger, S., Deutungskmpfe. Theorie und Praxis Kritischer Diskursanalyse, VS Verlag fr Sozialwissenschaften: Wiesbaden, 2007. [3] Frankfurter Rundschau, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Sddeutsche Zeitung, Die Zeit and Der Spiegel. [4] Schwedes, O., The Field of Transport Policy: An Initial Approach. German Policy Studies, 7(1), 2011 (forthcoming). [5] Westbrook, M. H., The Electric Car: Development and future of battery, hybrid and fuel-cell cars, The Institution of Engineering and Technology: London, UK, 2007. [6] Hoogma, R., Ren K., Johan Sch., Bernhard T., Experimenting for Sustainable Transport. The approach of Strategic Niche Management, E&F Spon Publisher: London, 2002. [7] Collantes, G. O., The California Zero-Emission Vehicle Mandate: A Study of the Policy Process, Dissertation at the University of California Davis, 2006. [8] IPCC International Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge and New York, 2007. [9] Fairclough, N., Critical Discourse Analysis: The Critical Study of Language, Longman: London, 2010. [10] Pivco, http://www.thinkev.com/The-THINK-City [11] Banister, D., Unsustainable Transport. City Transport in the New Century, Routledge: Oxfordshire and New York, 2005. [12] Grling, T., Steg, L., Threats from Car Traffic to the Quality of Urban Life: Problems, Causes, and Solutions, Elsevier: Oxford and Amsterdam, 2007. [13] Kerchner, B., Schneider, S. (eds.). Foucault: Diskursanalyse der Politik, VS Verlag: Wiesbaden, 2006. [14] Howarth, D., Stavrakakis, Y., Introducing discourse theory and political analysis (chapter 1). Discourse Theory and Political Analysis. Identities, Hegemonies and Social Change ed. D. Howarth, A. J. Norval, Y. Stavrakakis, Manchester University Press: Manchester and New York, pp. 123, 2009. [15] Schubert, K., Bandelow, N. C., Lehrbuch der Politikfeldanalyse, Oldenbourg: Mnchen et al., 2003.

[16] www.bmwi.de/Dateien/BMWi/PDF/nationaler-entwicklungsplanelektromobilitaet-der-bundesregierung,property=pdf,bereich= bmwi,sprache=de, rwb=true.pdf [17] The others are Vattenfall, EnBW, and EON. [18] In the meanwhile RWE extended its activities in several other German Cities: www.rwe-mobility.com [19] Nissen, S., Die Regierbare Stadt. Metropolenpolitik als Konstruktion lsbarer Probleme. New York, London und Berlin im Vergleich, Westdeutscher Verlag: Wiesbaden, 2002. [20] SenStadt, www.stadtentwicklung.berlin.de [21] Blmel, H., Planung und Genehmigung von Batterielade-, Fahrrad- sowie CarSharing-Stationen im ffentlichen Raum. bersicht der Projektaktivitten und-planungen. Prsentation im Rahmen der Einladung der Bezirksstadtrte durch die Senatsverwaltung fr Stadtentwicklung zum Erfahrungs- und Informationsaustausch, am 27.10.2011, in Berlin. [22] Schller-Schwedes, O., The failure of integrated transport policy in Germany: a historical perspective. Journal of Transport Geography, 18(1), pp. 8596.
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Functional and dysfunctional urban mass transportation systems in the greater Gauteng region of South Africa
J. Chakwizira1, P. Bikam2 & T. A. Adeboyejo1
1
University of Venda, School of Environmental Sciences, Thohoyandou, South Africa 2 Development Bank of Southern Africa, Midrand, South Africa
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to present some insights regarding functional and dysfunctional urban public mass transportation systems in the greater Gauteng region of South Africa. Making use of a case study approach that places greater Johannesburg and Pretoria region at the centre of the investigation, contextual urban public mass transport struggles and dialogues are reviewed. Employing the interview surveys and a synthesis approach, the capacity and capability of the existing urban public transport to meet expectations of the serviced population in the greater Johannesburg region is critiqued. The contribution and value add that recent improvements in public transport management such as the Gautrain and Rea Vaya Bus rapid Transit (BRT) are explored and urban public transport pain points and hotspots considered. The major conclusions of the paper revolve around implementing a package of innovative and alternative transport solutions and technologies to overcome various obstacles and constraints to improved public transport service and infrastructure delivery and sustainability. Keywords: urban public transport, rapid transit systems, interventions, greater Gauteng region, South Africa.
1 Introduction
This article presents some insights regarding functional and dysfunctional urban public transportation systems in the greater Gauteng region (GGR). The study is motivated by multiple imperatives whose justification is embedded in current

shortcomings and weaknesses inherent in the existing urban public transportation system and network of the greater Johannesburg region. Firstly, the urban public transportation landscape field in South Africa just like elsewhere has been conceptualized from different angles. Consequently, different methods have been harnessed in generating solutions (Thomlinson et al. [1]). Secondly, the consequences of different transport pathways conceptualization have lead to different but commonly enriching options for resolving urban public transport in South Africa in general and Johannesburg in particular (Department of Transport [2]). Thirdly, while Johannesburg metropolis is well served by some 259 kilometers of motorway incorporating two concentric loops, one of which leads directly into the CBD, this has not spared the region from urban public transport problems such as congestion, long travelling hours to and from areas of socio-economic opportunity, traffic accidents, pollution and inefficient land use and transport integration among a host of other shortcomings. All this persists despite the existence of an approximately 240 kilometers of expressway (Beavon [3] 12). Urban public transport planners and critics have questioned the functional efficiency of the existing urban transportation system and structure of the greater Johannesburg region (GJR) from two main perspectives, namely the traffic flow and the land integration dimension (Chakwizira [4]). This article therefore has as one of its aims challenging the functional capacity and ability of the existing transportation set-up to address greater Johannesburg 21st century urban public transport problems in South Africa. 1.1 Aim of article This articles aim is to interrogate the functional efficiency of the existing transport network and systems in the GJR with a view to generating innovative solutions that can address system and network performance gaps and or cracks. The broad objective of the article is attained through interrogating three discrete but complementary specific objectives, which are namely; 1. 2. 3. To map the urban public transportation system and network challenges in GJR. To assess the potential impact that the Gautrain rapid rail link initiative will have in addressing contemporary urban public transportation system and network challenges in GJR. To advance urban public transportation suggestions for enhanced system and network performance in the GJR.
2 Research methods
The study methodology relied on both qualitative and quantitative approaches. The unit of analysis is the GJR with case studies of Soweto, Soshanguve and Hammanskraal. Data collection techniques such as interviews with key role players, workshops and random sample interviews with public transport
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stakeholders (residents, commuters and public transport service providers) experiences were used. Overall, the research work was approached from a research and developmental perspective.
3 Literature review
The transport infrastructure and services supply paradigm argues that growth of cities and increase in traffic should be matched by a commensurate road expansion programme (Department of Transport [5]). On the contrary, transport infrastructure and services demand paradigm argues that no city in the world has resolved the problems of growth of cities and increase in traffic by constructing and building more roads, more freeways and highways (Chakwizira et al. [6]). Cities seeking to address contemporary urban transport problems may need to apply innovative solutions that strike a balance between traditional and neotraditional urban transport spectrum of interventions. Overall, the perceived need for exercising autonomy over public transport service delivery has seen many cities around the world become innovative and effective transport transformation and change management agents. Cervero [7] identifies examples of four city archetypes that, through proper and dedicated transport planning and management, have been able to deliver sustainable public transport. Firstly, adaptive cities have invested in high capacity public transport systems i.e. rail, to guide urban growth. Examples are Copenhagen, Tokyo, and Stockholm (Wright [8]). Secondly, adaptive public transport cities have managed to successfully adapt their public transport to serve somewhat dysfunctional urban sprawls. Examples are Karlsruhe, Adelaide and Mexico City (ibid). Thirdly, strong core cities have successfully integrated public transport with the built environment within a more confined central city context. Examples are Zurich and Melbourne (Gwilliam [9]). Fourthly, hybrids combining adaptive cities and adaptive public transport archetypes are cities that have managed to concentrate their development around main public transport corridors and at the same time adapting the public transport system to serve outlying areas. Examples are Curitiba, Ottawa and Munich (Chakwizira et al. [6]). Theories that explain and describe public transport infrastructure and services deployment, policy environment, commuter behaviour and outcomes exist. These are the classic transport monocentric model, linear public transport commuting minimising programming model, network equilibrium and stochastic route choice, gravity model and transport trip distribution, random utility models with network equilibrium approaches, urban transport network equilibrium, random utility, practitioner travel forecasting models and combined/integrated choice models have been implemented and operationalised with the aid of software systems (Wright [8]). These applications have had great influence and impact to urban transport planning and models application in South Africa. Despite all these models and transport technology applications being available for use in the GJR in particular and South Africa in general, the challenge of sustainable urban public transportation has not declined but instead since become much more sharply pronounced and requiring urgent priority than before.

3.1 Conceptual framework The development of this article required the application of a robust conceptual framework (refer to figure 1). The conceptual framework assisted in unlocking and dismantling key components of functional and dysfunctional urban mass transport in GJR. Defining key concepts that frame the boundaries of this article is important in providing a foundation for understanding the context and meaning by which such concepts and terms are used throughout this article. Functional urban mass transport is defined as constituting an urban mass transport systems that is (are) efficient, seamless, integrated, cost-effective, appropriate, reliable, consistent, sustainable and affordable (Wright [8]). Dysfunctional urban mass transport is defined as enveloping urban mass
Discordant Transport Systems Dysfunctional and inappropriate SDFs Unsustainable urban public transportation models Fragmented land use and transportation plans Low mass of transport experts Flawed R & D Sustainable Transport Systems Functional and appropriate SDFs, ITPs Sustainable Urban public transportation models and systems Integrated Land use and transportation plans Critical mass of transport experts Responsive R & D
Non-optimised Public Transport Institutions and Systems
Optimised Public Transport Institutions and Systems
INPUTS
Environment
INPUTS
Dysfunctional urban public transport
Science
Economy
URBAN PUBLIC TRANSPORT

Politics Society
Functional urban public transport
OUTPUTS
Technical
OUTPUTS
Inefficient Settlements Traditional funding systems and models Exclusive Public Transport Agenda Unsustainable Transport Technology
Unlearning organizations and institutions
Learning organizations and institutions
Efficient Settlements Inclusive Transport Sustainable Transport Technologies Innovative Transport Funding Systems and Models
Source: Study Findings, 2009.
Figure 1:
Schematic representation of the conceptual framework.
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transport that is inefficient, fragmented, disconnected, costly, inappropriate, inconsistent and not sustainable (Gwilliam [9]). Figure 1 overleaf presents the hexagonal factors that drive urban public transport mass transport. This article argues that a healthy application mix of these hexagonal factors yields positive and functional urban mass transport systems and network outcomes. On the contrary a flawed application mix of the same hexagonal factors produces a dysfunctional urban mass transport system and network outcome.
4 Discussion of study findings and results

This section presents the results from the research findings. The section discusses current challenges in public transport including a discussion of the Gautrain rapid rail link interventions to address these challenges in the GJR. 4.1 Greater Johannesburg region public transport route and network system Johannesburgs public transit metro railway system connects central Johannesburg with Soweto, Pretoria and most of the satellite towns along the Witwatersrand, transporting huge volumes of workers every day. However, the railway system built during Johannesburgs infancy covers largely the older areas of the city, despite Johannesburgs growth largely northwards in the past 50 years, and none of the key districts of Sandton, Midrand, Ranburg and Rosebank have any meaningful rail infrastructure. It is in this context that the Gautrain rapid rail link has been proposed and is being implemented to relieve traffic congestion on the N1 freeway between Johannesburg and Pretoria, which records traffic loads of over 160 000 per day (Wright [8]). Johannesburg is served by OR Tambo International Airport (Formerly Johannesburg International Airport). Other airports include Rand Airport, Grand Central Airport and Lanseria. Johannesburg is not built near any large navigable rivers. This means that, from the beginning, ground transport has been a leading method of transporting people and goods in, around and beyond the GJR. Johannesburg ring/orbital road is comprised of three freeways that converge on the city. The N3 eastern bypass links Johannesburg with Pretoria town. The N12 southern bypass links Johannesburg with Witbank and Kimberley. It also consists of the busy N1 route already mentioned. The N3 was built with asphalt, while the N12 and N1 western bypass are constructed of concrete. In spite of being up to 12 lanes wide in some areas (6 lanes per one direction), the Johannesburg ring road is frequently congested with traffic. Gautengs road network has to cope with an annual traffic increase rate of 7%, with 1.8 million drivers and 2.8 million registered vehicles (Department of Transport, 2008). 40% of the national fleet and traffic has been increasing on the M1/N1 corridor, roughly 7% a year over the past 10 years. The average travel time to work in the Greater Johannesburg Area has increased from 41,5 minutes in 1995 to 50 minutes in 2003, representing a 17% increase over eight years

(Shaw [10]). Traffic congestion affects thousands of people daily in Gauteng Province. During the peak hours, the impact of accidents and the resulting delays add to the general navigation difficulties for road users. Central and local government have since adopted strategies and proposals to counter the everincreasing congestion on modern urban freeways and arterials, such as the Gauteng road improvement and upgrading programme, the tolling of the Gauteng arterial road network, high vehicle and occupancy lanes in the quest to optimise the use of existing infrastructure by means of technologically aided congestion management. As a consequence the City of Johannesburg (CoJ), Integrated Transport Plan (ITP) aims at creating a safe and efficient transportation system, with a public transport focus, that will support a world class City; connecting businesses, people and places in a sustainable and cost effective manner and through this, improve the standard of living and quality of life of all the Citys inhabitants and the overall competitiveness and growth of the Citys economy. Achieving such a feat requires more concerted and integrated efforts by all urban transport stakeholders. The road network within the CoJ area is estimated to comprise some 7500 kilometres of road. This is further subdivided into approximately 565 kilometres of freeway and approximately 1260 kilometres of main arterial roads. Consequently the bulk of the road network comprises tertiary roads which provide access to properties and link to the higher order routes (IDP, 2008). The remainder of the roads are under the Johannesburg Road Agency (JRA) and municipalities within the GJR such as Tshwane Metropolitan municipality and Ekurhuleni Metropolitan municipality. While the question of promoting public transport seems compelling, observers have raised concern with how such a strategy will be pursued taking into account transport governance systems, the high car ownership patterns and trends in the GJR (Chakwizira and Mashiri [12]). Linking urban public transport initiatives including restraint measures such as the about to be implemented Gauteng freeway toll road system and sharpening spatial development frameworks in line with existing and envisaged mobility spines remains a growing challenge. 4.2 Current urban public transport challenges in the greater Johannesburg region The urban public transport system in South Africa generally and GJR in particular faces many challenges. The apartheid city design policies crafted fragmented and functionally in-efficient cities and spaces (Donaldson [13]). Residential areas such as Soshanguve, Hammanskraal and Soweto (where car ownership is as low as 38%) where the majority of public transport communities live are located far away from major industrial and commercial centres of Pretoria and Johannesburg respectively. While the middle and higher income earners in Pretoria East, Sandton, Midrand residential suburbs (where car ownership is as high as 82%) can afford alternative urban transport means, the same cannot be said of captive urban public transport community members (Research Survey Findings, 2010). Table 1 presents the major urban public
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transport challenges faced by commuters in Soshanguve, Hammanskraal and Soweto during the study period. A limited purposive sample was adopted given that a census could not be done owing to time and budget constraints. Survey respondents from a limited purposive sample of randomised 300 residents from Soweto (100), Soshanguve (100) and Hammanskraal (100) conducted in 2010 expressed different levels of dissatisfaction with train, bus and taxi modes of transport (refer to table 1). These levels of dissatisfaction speaks to the dysfunctional dimensions of transport challenges experienced by the commuters, namely cost, long distances from pick-up and drop off points, fragmentation of socio-economic opportunities, crime and violence. Improvements in bus services and train services are critical. The Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and Gautrain rapid rail link initiative should seek to reverse urban public transport dysfunctional challenges through seeking to exceed public transport customer service expectations. In addition, as a consequence of the existing fragmented and dysfunctional spatial land use and transport system middle and high income locations residents Table 1: Study findings of major urban public transport problems faced by commuters in Soshanguve, Hammanskraal and Soweto.
Soweto Cause of dissatisfaction Train users dissatisfied Train users dissatisfied Bus users dissatisfied Taxi users dissatisfied Soshanguve Train users dissatisfied Bus users dissatisfied Taxi users dissatisfied Hammanskraal Bus users dissatisfied 39% 28% 29% 22% 11% 31 16% 30% 32% 17% 27% 24% Taxi users dissatisfied 48% 29% 27% 37% 51 49% 66% 28% 35% 38% 52% 43%
Sample Size N=300
Cost Distance from home Travel time Crime at ranks/termini /station Crime on bus/train/taxi Taxi industry violence Safety from accidents Frequency peak Frequency off-peak Punctuality Facilities at termini Overall quality
20% 48% 35% 51% 65% -31 19% 38% 46% 50% 14% 37%
32% 30% 25% 10% 10% -20 15% 24% 42% 29% 34% 20%
48% 22% 40% 39% 25% 49% 66% 38% 12% 21% 52% 43%
16% 46% 42% 38% 55% 30% 20% 36% 40% 46% 13% 33%
36% 30% 31% 19% 11% 11% 16% 28% 35% 25% 38% 20%
48% 36% 27% 44% 34 59% 66% 36% 25% 29% 49% 47%
13% 43% 44% 41% 38% 20 18% 42% 33% 45% 21% 33%
Source: Research Survey Findings, 2010.


have high car ownership. This situation leads to the generation of traffic congestion spots and points along main routes and arterials linking such settlements (e.g. Thembisa, Orlando, Soweto) with major socio-economic locations and facilities in the metropolitan and urban areas (e.g. Sandton, Rosebank, Menlyn etc). Examples include the following off rumps along the N1 route, Witbank, Lynwood, Atterbury, Hans Strydom Drive, Delmas, Old Johannesburg Road, R21, John Vorster, Olifantsfontein to name a few examples. Further, a number of urban public transport initiatives such as the Gautrain Rapid rail link initiative and the Bus rapid Transit (BRT) have been embarked by the South African government to tackle the above mentioned transport challenges. However the extent to which such initiatives has contributed towards reversing the dysfunctional urban public transport system and route network in GJR is still largely a grey area. 4.3 Public transport anatomy in the greater Johannesburg region Minibus-taxis are the dominant mode of public transport in GJR for approximately 72% of all public transport users (Lombard et al. [14]). These taxis do not operate according to timetables but utilize the concept of full loads. Routeing is highly structured by the taxi associations that assign operators specific routes or group of routes (1DP, 2008). The bus and metro services also serve the commuting public in the region. Trip interchange and transfers between taxis and bus, between taxi and train make and taxi-to-taxi transfers (intramodalism) are a characteristic of the region transport structure. Most of the transfers occur in the CBDs of Pretoria, Sandton, Benoni, Midrand and Johannesburg major urban nodes. The average travel time to work for people using one taxi all the way is 30 minutes, and for those using a taxi-taxi combination is 78 minutes. Those using a taxi-taxi-taxi combination spend 99 minutes (Gauteng [15]). The highest travel times in CoJ are for those people using a taxi-train-taxi combination (115 minutes per one way journey), a taxitrain-train combination (133 minutes) or a taxi-bus-taxi combination (160 minutes) (Lombard et al. [15]). A taxi-bus combination gives a journey time average of 85 minutes, and taxi-train of 84 minutes. The National Travel Survey (2006) report by Statistics SA shows that South Africans who use their own vehicles spend at least 1 hours in traffic each day, while 10 million people who use public transport spend 2 hours getting to and from work (Statistics South Africa, 2008). The need to alleviate traffic congestion and traffic decongestion could not be any greater (Chakwizira [4]). The spatial configuration of the GJR contributes much to the transport costs, adding to the problems of transfer delays between modes and lack of an integrated ticketing system. Survey respondents from a limited purposive sample of randomised 300 residents from Soweto (100), Soshanguve (100) and Hammanskraal (100) conducted in 2010 expressed dissatisfaction with the taxi industry service. 60% of the respondents said they were dissatisfied with safety levels. This is lower than the 66% reported by the Gauteng Household Interview Survey of 2002 but is comparable. While during the Gauteng Household Interview Survey of 2002 62% of the respondents were dissatisfied with facilities at taxi ranks, our 2010
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residents interview survey recorded 60%. During the Gauteng Household Interview Survey of 2002 57% of the respondents were dissatisfied with the levels of violence in the industry, our 2010 residents interview survey recorded 51%. Other causes of dissatisfaction such as crime at public transport ranks (52% of users), cost (54%), and frequency in the peak (44%), frequency in the off-peak (41%). In 2002 these other causes of dissatisfaction recorded the following statistics, crime at ranks (49% of users), cost (48%), and frequency in the peak (38%), frequency in the off-peak (35%). Overall, this is symptomatic of the dysfunctional public transport service levels in the metro bus and metro train services in the region (refer to Lombard et al. [14]). It is maybe because of some of these gaps that the Gautrain rapid rail link initiative and BRT Rea Vaya projects was developed as a measure to complement and upgrade the existing form of urban public transport options for travellers in the greater Johannesburg region. Nevertheless, the results of our 2010 residents interview survey (although using a limited purposive randomised sample) corroborated the findings of previous extensive and larger non-purposive sample based Gauteng Household Interview Survey 2002 and National Household Transport Surveys (2003) by the Department of Transport. From this analysis, one could argue that the implementation of the Gautrain rapid rail link initiative and BRT Rea Vaya should contribute towards lowering levels of dissatisfaction and reversing dysfunctional challenges associated with urban public transport systems in South Africa. An interesting urban public transport indicator of failure to cope with demand is that generalised costs of public transport have been on the increase (Statistics South Africa, 2008). Even for 20% of households with the lowest income, transport expenditure as a proportion of total household expenditure increased from 4% in 1995 to 10.6% in 2005/2006. In terms of travel time, Lombard et al. [14] present that as a result of roadway congestion; many commuters have changed departure times to work to either earlier or later than traditional peak. Given, these multiple forms of dysfunctional urban public transport it is critical to find innovative ways to resolve the challenges. 4.4 Urban commuter public transport interventions in the greater Johannesburg region: the Gautrain rail rapid link initiative Historically, land development in GJR has, in most cases, not been supported by an efficient public transportation system. This created the need to provide a supportive public transportation system to assist in optimising land use development, minimising congestion on the roads, reducing the number of road accidents and decreasing pollution levels, as well as moving towards the more holistic provision of an integrated transport system that includes public transport (Uys [17]). The Gautrain rapid rail link aims to contribute towards the realisation of these goals. The Gautrain rail link entail a modern, state-of-the-art rail connection linking Pretoria, Johannesburg and OR Tambo International Airport. The network will consist of two spines: one linking Johannesburg and Pretoria, and the other linking Sandton and OR Tambo International Airport. A network length of

approximately 80 km is planned, with provision for future extensions. Three anchor stations are proposed at Pretoria station, Johannesburg Park Station and OR Tambo International Airport (ORTIA), with seven other stations proposed at Hatfield, Centurion, Midrand, Marlboro, Sandton, Rosebank and Kempton Park (Rhodesfield). The train is expected to cut the number of cars on the N1 Ben Schoeman Highway by 20%, or 135 000 passenger trips per day by 2010. However, figures released by Gauteng provincial government in 2003 indicate that project will do little to alleviate traffic on the over-used Ben Schoeman highway, as traffic volumes will be higher when Gautrain is completed and operating at full capacity. One argument is that a single lane cannot solve GJR urban public transport challenges. The CoJ has implemented the Rea Vaya BRT system as a supporting solution for Johannesburgs congested roads and transport problems. The Rea Vaya BRT has all the benefits of a full train system going through the suburbs of Pretoria and Johannesburg in addition to flexibility and cost advantages of road transport. The Rea Vaya BRT comprises of a middle lane for large, high tech buses designed to transport commuters comfortably and quickly around Johannesburg. The system uses specific designated routes, enclosed bus stations along the routes and a high tech control centre. The Rea Vaya BRT urban transport network is designed to feed into and complement existing networks to ensure the most effective movement of people across the city. This ensures no competition with other transport systems such as Metrorail or the Gautrain. This BRT initiative forecloses that the Gautrain rapid rail link is not a panacea for urban public transport challenges in the GJR. The solution lies in implementing a package of interventions all meant to better urban public transport delivery and performance levels.
5 Conclusions and recommendations

This article confirms that conceptually public transport interventions such as the Gautrain and by extension the Rea Vaya Bus Rapid Transit have great potential in addressing urban public transport challenges for commuting communities. However, progress is constrained by the lack of a critical mass of urban transportation experts and professionals in South Africa. Consequently, overcoming the challenges of strongly fusing land use and transport development planning in the GJR of South Africa can be achieved by implementing a raft of interventions such as land densification, road pricing and car restraint measures, road expansion and construction applications. The major issues and recommendations emanating from this article are namely; The existing alignment, spatial configuration and functional pathways of Gautrain rapid rail link initiative route reinforce existing geographical fragmented and dysfunctional economic routes and corridor service delivery architecture. This consolidates inherited geographical dysfunctional spatial accessibility and mobility challenges in urban areas of GJR and requires implementation of innovative solution to reverse the trend.
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Urban public transport initiatives should be inclusive and comprehensive in addressing the full life cycle dimensions of urban public transport challenges cutting across industry sectors and different divides in a society if the initiatives are to be sustainable. The Gautrain route needs extension and future plans should find an optimal mix of integrating the current north south axis with an east west configuration where GJR growth is happening. Prospecting the feasibility of developing an underground/subway urban public transportation system and trams/light rail urban public transport systems in GJR is an option open for exploration. Utilising more efficient urban public transport modes in an age of dwindling oil and increased environmental consciousness is critical for South Africa given the MDGs, linking transport and climate change mitigation and adaptation measures post the Copenhagen Earth Summit.
This article has presented that urban public transport challenges in GJR of South Africa and by extension developing countries generally still remain a daunting task owing to a dysfunctional land use and transport base/structure. However, adopting integrative and collaborative approaches provides opportunities for reversing the dysfunctional structures to be succeeded by a next generation of structurally efficient land use and sustainable transport systems.
References
[1] Thomlinson R et al (2003) Emerging Johannesburg : Perspectives On The Post Apartheid City, Routledge, New York, London ISBN 0-415-93558-X [2] Department of Transport (2007a) Public Transport Strategy. Public Transport Action Plans and 2010 documents. Pretoria South Africa [3] Beavon K (2004) Johannesburg The Making And Shaping Of The City, Unisa Press, University of South Africa ISBN 1-86888-303-5 [4] Chakwizira J (2007) The Question of Traffic Congestion and Decongestion in the Greater Johannesburg Region, 26th Annual Southern African Transport Conference and Exhibition, Pretoria, South Africa, 912 July 2007, pp 13, ISBN : 192001702X [5] Department of Transport (2007b) Public Transport Action Plan. Phase 1 (2007-2010) Catalytic Integrated Rapid Public Transport Network Projects. Public Transport Action Plans and 2010 documents. Pretoria, South Africa [6] Chakwizira J, Mathetha M, Mashiri M, Marrian B (2009) Sustainable Public Transport Overview Report, South African Cities Network, Braamfontein, Johannesburg, South Africa [7] Cervero, R. (1998). The transit metropolis a global enquiry. Island Press, Washington [8] Wright, L. (2005). Bus Rapid Transit. In: GTZ Sustainable Transport: A sourcebook for policy-makers in developing cities, Eschborn: GTZ

[9] Gwilliam, K. (2002). Cities on the move: a World Bank urban transport strategy review. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 [10] Shaw A (2005) Public Transport: Gautrain Can Show Way For SA, Business Day Final 05 September 2005 page 11 [11] (2008) Johannesburg Integrated Development Plan, Johannesburg, South Africa [12] Chakwizira J, Mashiri M (2008) The role of transport governance in socioeconomic development in South Africa, Sustainable Transport: 28th Annual Southern African Transport Conference (SATC) 2009, Pretoria, South Africa, 6-9 July 2009, pp 1-18 ISBN: 9781920017392 [13] Donaldson R. (2006). Mass rapid rail development in South Africas metropolitan core: Towards a new urban form? Land Use Policy 23: 344352 [14] Lombard, M. Cameron, B. Mokonyama, M. Shaw, A. (2007). Report on trends in passenger transport in South Africa. Development Bank of Southern Africa, South Africa. ISBN: 1-919692-95-9 [15] Gauteng. (2002). Gauteng household travel survey data, obtained from the City of Johannesburg, City of Johannesburg, South Africa [16] Statistics South Africa. (2008). Income and expenditure of households 2005/2006: Analysis of results. Statistics South Africa, Pretoria. ISBN No. 978-0-621-37635-7 [17] Uys, T. (2006). Not in my Backyard?: Challenges in the Social Impact Assessment of the Gautrain Rapid Rail Link Project in South Africa, Department of Sociology, Rand Afrikaans University, Auckland Park
749
The second Mexican toll road program: learning from the experience
S. Carpintero1 & R. Barcham2
1 2
Polytechnic University of Madrid, Spain Norbridge Inc., USA
Abstract
Public-private partnerships have played an important role in the provision of transport infrastructure in emerging countries over the last two decades. From 1989 to 1994 Mexico implemented an ambitious road concession program that has been widely regarded as a dramatic failure. In just five years, Mexico awarded 52 concessions totalling over 5,300 kilometres of toll roads. Nonetheless, as early as 1993 many of the concessions had to be renegotiated and in 1997 the government was forced to take over 23 of them at an immediate financial cost of billions of dollars. In 2003, after a hiatus of nearly a decade, the Mexican government began to offer toll road concessions again. Initially, concessions were offered for new roads but the government soon offered packages including both new roads and some of the older concessions bailed out in 1997. The new program succeeded in attracting bidders and expanded gradually until the late 2000s, when the global financial crisis dampened investor appetite, at least temporarily. This paper examines the key features of the new wave of road concessions in Mexico and analyses why it gained the backing of the international toll road industry. Keywords: Mexico, PPP, toll road, concession.
1 Introduction
Private toll roads have experienced a notable worldwide expansion in the last two decades. The pioneer countries in this respect were Spain and France in the late 1960s and early 1970s, respectively. In the early 1990s, many additional countries began to offer motorway concessions to private investors, most notably in Latin America and in Central and Eastern Europe. In the late 1990s and 2000s,

private toll roads spread to countries in Asia, North America and Western Europe. Latin America was the first middle-and-low income region to launch private toll road programs, and it is the region where toll road concessions have experienced the greatest expansion. Mexico has been a pioneer among middle-and-low income countries in launching a private toll road program and has indeed built the longest network of private toll roads of any country in the world. The Mexicans implemented their first program from 1989 to 1994, building over 5,300 km of toll roads, of which almost 3,500 km were granted to the private sector. However, 23 of the 52 concessions granted were taken over by the government in 1997 due mainly to: i) excessively short concessions periods; ii) overly optimistic construction cost and demand estimates by the government; and iii) the lack of incentives for the construction companies and the banks to carefully evaluate the risks (Ruster [1], Rogozinski and Tovar [2]). In 2003 Mexico undertook a new program consisting of three kinds of road concessions: i) concessions for new roads financed by tolls; ii) concessions for new roads financed by a combination of shadow tolls and availability payments; and iii) concessions for existing public toll roads, including several of those taken over by the government in 1997. This experience provides important insights for many countries dealing with toll road programs. The results obtained by the second program, in terms of number of concessions awarded and kilometers built, may be considered a relative success. The number of concessions is not as impressive as in the first program but the quality of the second program has been much higher. This paper analyses the key features of the second program and explores why it has been successful in attracting bidders, including both local and international companies.
2 Mixing public and private: relevant features of the second program

2.1 Introduction One of the most significant features of the second road concession program in Mexico has been the use of public resources in order to enable the concessionaires to obtain the necessary private financing. This has been accomplished largely through initial public contributions as well as ongoing assistance by public financial institutions. The four key aspects of this public support that underlie the success of the second Mexican program are: i) the availability of public funds to pay for initial studies, make initial contributions and pay for land expropriations; ii) the selection of the concessionaire according to the lowest public contributions requested; iii) the use of in-kind public contributions to enhance the profitability of some concessions; iv) the participation of the public financial sector to substitute or complement the private financial sector when needed.
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2.2 Availability of public funds to pay for initial studies, make initial contributions and pay for the land expropriations The availability of a dedicated government fund, independent of the annual budget, has been a key feature behind the success of the second road concession program. According to many industry operators and senior government officials, without the existence of this fund, it would have been almost impossible in practice to provide the necessary initial public contributions and pay for the land expropriations. Creating a concession-specific fund overcame the difficulties associated with uncertainty around required resources and timing on the one hand, and annual availability of funds through the budget process on the other hand. Once established, the fund has provided resources for: i) preliminary studies such as traffic studies, design projects, etc.; ii) in-advance public contributions boosting the profitability of the early projects and thus making them more attractive to the private sector; and iii) land expropriations (Gonzlez [3]). The resources for the public contributions and payments came from the FINFRA fund until 2007, and beginning in that year have been provided by another fund named FONADIN, both managed by Banobras (national development bank dependent on the Finance Minister). The government had created FINFRA (Fideicomiso para Inversin en Infrastructura Trust fund for investment in infrastructure) in September 1995 with the goal of developing mechanisms of public-private partnership to provide basic infrastructure and public services (Tamayo-Flores [4]). In 1997, the government created FARAC (Fideicomiso de Apoyo al Rescate de Autopistas Concesionadas Trust fund to support the bailout of road concessions) to manage the financial resources linked to the concessions taken over by the government in 1997, including both revenues and debt service. In February 2007, the new government (elected in July 2006) decided to join FINFRA and FARAC, thereby creating FONADIN (Fondo Nacional de Infraestructura National Fund for Infrastructure). 2.3 Selection of the concessionaire according to the lowest public contributions requested Award of concessions during the second program was determined by comparing the public contribution requested by the bidders. To maximize efficiency, the concessions were awarded to those bidders requesting the lowest public contribution. Nonetheless, there were several challenges associated with this approach that were addressed and corrected along the way during the implementation of the second program. For example, beginning with the fourth tender (2005), the government established a maximum amount of money it was willing to provide to the project as a public contribution. If all bidders requested an amount higher than the designated limit, the government cancelled the tender. Based on the experience of the first three projects, the government realized that bidders tended to overestimate the investment cost. In the first two tenders there were only two bidders (and six in the third), all of which were local companies;

no foreign companies were attracted by the tender because the lack of confidence in the second Mexican toll roads program (Gonzlez [3]). In another change, starting with the third tender (2004), the government gave bidders the option of offering an upfront payment. From that point forward, the government received an upfront payment in a number of concessions (see Table 1). In the two first tenders, the best offer by the bidders was a request for zero government subsidy. In these cases where several bidders requested no subsidy, the concession was awarded to the bidder offering the lowest investment cost. Selecting the concessionaire according to the lowest public contribution has also been used in concessions with a combination of shadow toll and availability payments (see Table 2). These concessions have been awarded to the bidder requesting the lowest present value of public payments. The government estimated, prior to the tender, a threshold amount for the minimum investment to be undertaken by the concessionaire and a limit for the maximum public contribution (calculated as the present value of all annual payments during the concession). In all six concessions of this kind granted, there were bidders who fulfilled both conditions. In another interesting feature, the government introduced a section with conventional toll in two projects in order to reduce the payments to be made (see Table 2). This only occurred in two cases because, according to the legal framework, the Mexican government can only charge conventional tolls on roads with an existing free alternative. The efficiency in selecting the concessionaire according to the lowest public contribution has also been sought in the franchising of public toll roads. In September 2008, the government offered a package of concessions called FARAC II, but the tender was cancelled because bids were far below the governments expectations. The franchising of the previous package (FARAC I) in 2007 had been very successful because it included mainly brownfield concessions during a period of more favourable financial markets. The second package, however, was comprised of almost 50% greenfield projects, and was offered after the global financial crisis had begun. Instead of franchising the roads for a low price, the government decided to cancel the tender and split the package into two smaller ones (designated Pacific North and Pacific South). In 2009, the government granted Pacific North to IDEAL (belonging to the Slim Group). Meanwhile, another tender for franchising a package of public toll roads (called Noreste I) was also cancelled in March 2010, again due to the low value of the bids (Project Finance [5]). 2.4 In-kind public contributions The government made an in-kind public contribution, usually in the form of construction, to several projects as a means of enhancing their financial profitability. As of 2010, the government contributed some section under construction in five projects (see Table 1). This approach, however, was not always successful. In two projects (Tepic-Villa Union and Arco Norte) the construction of the public section overran established deadlines for reasons that
Table 1:
Conventional toll roads (second Mexican program).

Upfront payment In-kind Concessionaire Support provided by FINFRA-FONADIN to the contrib. (main (million pesos) government (km) shareholder) (million pesos)
Contract date
Length Total invest. (km) (mill. pesos)
Initial public Subordinated Loan contribution debt guarantees
Libramiento de 09/05/2003 Matehuala 14 Libramiento de Mexicali 15/11/2004 41 31/10/2003 103 Amozoc-Perote 06/04/2005 152 Tepic-Villa Unin Morelia-Salamanca 14/07/2005 83 Arco Norte (Ciudad de 21/12/2005 222 Mx) Libramiento de Tecpan 24/052006 4 Saltillo-Monterrey 17/11/2006 92 Puente int Reynosa- 27/07/2007 10 McAllen Arriaga-Ocozocoautla 31/10/2007 93 Libramiento de Irapuato 21/12/2008 Perote-Banderilla 14/02/2008 Lib. de Chihuahua 16/12/2008 30 60 41
OMEGA (Mex.) 387.3 681.7 1,857 2,565.9 989 3,330.5 176.1 3,582.6 846 3,258.5 964 4,073 1,451.2 4,869.6 1,743.15 997.7 165.4 391.0 1,031.5 20 25 78 15 xx 22 20 1,595.4 262 3,355 xx xx 325 1,612 OMEGA (Mex.) OHL (Spain) (*) IDEAL (Mex.) Mex. companies IDEAL (Mex.) OMEGA (Mex.) Isolux (Spain) Mex. companies ALDESA (Spain) Mex. companies Isolux (Spain) Mex. Companies OMEGA (Mex.) ICA (Mxico)
xx
Ejutla-Puerto Escondido 30/01/2009 104 (Barranca Larga) Lib. de la Piedad 20/01/2009 50
Source: Elaborated by the author with information provided by the General Directorate of Road Development (Mexico). (*) OHL bought its stake in this concessionaire from a Mexican company, which was awarded the tender but failed to raise money for the equity.
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Table 2:
Road concessions with shadow tolls and availability payment (second Mexican program).
Irapuato-La Piedad Quertaro-Irapuato Tapachula-Talismn Nueva Italia-Apatzign Nuevo Necaxa-Tihuatln Rio Verde-Ciudad Valls
Contract Length date (km) 12/09/2005 74.3 21/06/2006 93.0 28/11/2006 45.0 05/10/2007 31.7 07/08/2007 84.8 08/08/2007 113.2
Total invest. (mill. pesos) 631 1,172 869 596 4,387 3,095
Kind of payment Shadow toll & availability Shadow toll & availability Shadow toll & availability Shadow toll & availability Toll & availability payments Shadow toll & availability
Concessionaire (main shareholder) ICA (Mxico) ICA (Mxico) Azvi (Spain) Mexican companies ICA (Mxico) ICA (Mxico)
Source: Elaborated by the author with information provided by the General Directorate of Road Development (Mexico).
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remain unclear. As a result, the concessionaire finished the construction of the main section before the government had finished its designated section, despite the smaller size and earlier start date of the latter. 2.5 Assistance of the public financial sector to substitute or complement the private financial sector
Both in the early and in the late 2000s, although for different reasons, the public sector provided financial support to substitute or complement the private sector contribution. In the earlier projects, the lack of credibility of the program made the private financial sector very reluctant to get involved in lending money for the concessions. Therefore, the state development bank Banobras provided the loans for the first two projects. By the third project the program had already gained enough credibility so as to attract investment by the private financial sector. From then on, all concessions until 2009 were financed by private banks. In the late 2000s, the global financial crisis prevented the banks from providing loans to infrastructure projects. In order to maintain the concession program, in 2008 and 2009 the public financial sector provided stapled loans to projects offered as concessions. Banobras provided 70% of the financing as senior debt, and FONADIN provided the remaining 30% as subordinated debt. In addition to that, as an alternative approach, FONADIN offered guarantees and equity.
3 The relevance of stable leadership and institutional capability in the public administration
3.1 Stable leadership in the public administration According to many observers, a key factor in the relative success of the second road concession program has been the involvement of a small cadre of experienced government officials, most of whom have been involved with supervision of road concessions in Mexico since 1993. Initially, their main task was perceived to be fixing the many problems faced by the first program. But as early as 1994 this group of people, led by Oscar de Buen, was already exploring ways to promote expansion of road concessions in Mexico. These early efforts demonstrated the proactive attitude and long term vision of this team. The same group of officials has remained in charge of road concessions since the early 1990s through changes of the political party in office. In 2000, the conservative PAN party won the general elections, ending the 72-year reign of the leftist PRI party. When the incoming government took office, Oscar de Buen was appointed General Manager of the Directorate overseeing road concessions. By that time, work had begun on launching a new program. However, in the early 2000s, all stakeholders called to participate in the concessions (government, banks, construction companies, etc.) were still very sceptical regarding the real chances of a new road concession program. In 2006, the PAN again won the general elections and Oscar de Buen was promoted to

Undersecretary of Infrastructure, contributing to reinforce the strategy of promoting road concessions in the country. 3.2 Institutional capability of the public administration There are three main points which demonstrate the institutional capability of the Mexican public administration in charge of the road concession program. The first is the capacity to learn from experience. According to many industry representatives, the government officials responsible for the road concession program have been able to implement a new program taking into account the main lessons of the first program. They have been also able to introduce changes during the implementation of the second program based on the lessons learned along the way. Furthermore, in some cases they have cancelled tenders and reoffered the concessions with modified terms of reference in order to better meet the expectations of both the government and the private sector. A second point to consider involves the effective coordination observed between the Ministry of Transportation and the Finance Ministry. This fact is especially notable considering the relatively negative experience in this regard of other middle-and-low income countries, both in Latin America and in other world regions most notably in Central and Eastern Europe (Carpintero [6]). The degree of coordination achieved in Mexico has been particularly relevant when several projects have needed public contribution to attract private sector investment (see Table 1). Both in cases for which the contributions are real and for which they are contingent, the participation of the Finance Ministry is key for the long-term success of the projects. The third and final point to highlight is the credibility that the Mexican federal public administration has enjoyed in its implementation of the second road concession program. In long term projects with very high initial investments, credibility turns out to be a crucial requirement in attracting the private sector. The level of credibility achieved is demonstrated by the participation of many major international construction companies and banks in the tenders of the second program, starting with the fourth project. On average, 5-6 bidder consortiums presented themselves for each tender, of which roughly one third were led by a foreign company, particularly Spanish companies (Infranews, 2010). Three out of the eight most recent conventional toll roads were granted to consortiums led by Spanish companies (see Table 1). Moreover, many concessions have been financed by foreign banks, most notably Santander (Spain), HSBC (UK), Scotia Bank (Canada) and Dexia (Belgium). Likewise, in the tender to franchise the first package of rescued concessions in 2007 (FARAC I), there were six bidders, of which two were consortiums of foreign companies, with the remaining four featuring a mix of both Mexican and foreign companies. According to many industry operators, the crucial factors contributing to the increased credibility were the transparency of the tenders and the legal security of the contracts involved in the concessions (concession contract, financial contract, etc.), as well as the reliability of the initial studies conducted by the government (traffic studies, design projects, etc.). Legal security has been mainly guaranteed by well-prepared and complete contracts, as Mexico only passed a
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Table 3:
Comparison of real traffic with government forecasts in selected projects of the second program (vehicles per day) (1). 2004 2005 6,810 5,357 2006 6,992 5,951 2007 7,178 6,508 2008 7,369 6,514 4,716 3,261 2,846 1,606 4,542 4,150 4,660 5,164 2,970 2,221 4,781 2,410 1,986 1,370
Libramiento de Matehuala - forecast - real (2) Amozoc-Perote - forecast - real Libramiento de Mexicali - forecast - real Morelia-Salamanca - forecast - real (3) Libramiento de Tecpan - forecast - real
6,634 5,269
(1) The projects were included in a study carried out in 2009 by the General Directorate of Roads Development. (2) Data for 2004 covers November-December and data for 2008 covers January-June. (3) Data for 2006 covers 9-31 December and data for 2008 covers January-April. Source: Elaborated by the author with data provided by the General Directorate of Roads Development (Mxico).
specific law regulating concessions in late 2010. The reliability of government traffic studies for second program tenders is evident in the comparison of the forecasts with the real traffic (Table 3). 3.3 Delays in land expropriations Despite the strong oversight and leadership of the public administration, delays in land expropriation have proven to be a major obstacle in most construction projects. Mexican law did not allow a quick procedure for land expropriation permitting the contractor to take immediate control and begin construction. The concessionaire was obliged to negotiate separately with each land owner. This requirement made project schedules vulnerable to land owners who adopted firm negotiating positions, holding out for higher compensation. In those cases, the government could not compel owners to sell, but was forced to go to court for adjudication in a process that might take some years. In April 2010 a new law was passed with the objective of expediting the expropriations. By requiring earlier advance planning by the Ministry, the law aimed to begin land purchase negotiations earlier in the process. At the same time, the new regulation may place a heavier burden on the public administration.
4 Conclusions
With the failure of the first round of road concessions in Mexico in the mid- to late 1990s and their subsequent bailout by the federal government, prospects for future projects seemed dubious. Nonetheless, beginning in 2003 and continuing through the decade, Mexico created a second program able to attract investors and award numerous concessions. The relative success of this second Mexican toll road concession program has yielded several useful lessons around design and administration of concessions. First, the availability of designated public funds for background studies, initial contributions, and land expropriations laid the foundation for a stable policy. Second, an emphasis placed on minimizing public expenditure by awarding concessions to bidders requesting the lowest public contribution led to a more efficient program. This practice was also put in place for concessions with a combination of shadow toll and availability payments, as well as for franchising existing public toll roads. In-kind contributions and public sector loans provided by the national development bank were further key factors contributing to boost the credibility of the second wave of Mexican road concessions and its attractiveness to private investors. The Mexican experience also demonstrates the importance of stable, capable leadership and a strong institutional capability within a favourable legal framework. The same group of government officials supervised road concessions from the early 1990s onward, allowing them to accumulate expertise, learn from past mistakes, and work towards implementation of a long-term vision. Furthermore, the public administration exhibited flexibility to change features of the program and continuously introduce improvements, thereby reinforcing its credibility and increasing investor confidence. The global financial crisis in the latter part of the 2000s dampened the activity in assigning further toll road concessions, and the Mexican government was forced to play a larger role in backing new concessions. Moving forward, it remains to be seen whether Mexico can regain the momentum it had achieved in this area. Another factor to consider is the effect of changes in the legal framework, such as the new land expropriation law. Finally, attention should be paid to the continuing institutionalization of transparent, efficient bid and award processes as well as the continuation of effective leadership and administration by the public officials responsible. The strong pattern of international investment in Mexican toll road concessions can be seen as a validation of the second program, in both its design and administration. Additional study into such areas as the role of the legal framework, as well as the financial performance of the second program concessions, may clarify further elements of the Mexican experience. Finally, the definitive sustainability of the program is not yet proven, although all signs to this point have been very encouraging. In this respect, the second Mexican program may yield valuable lessons for other countries which may be considering implementing toll road concessions.
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References
[1] Ruster, J., A retrospective on the Mexican toll road program (1989-1994), Public Policy for the Private Sector, Note n. 125, The World Bank Group, Washington DC (USA), 1997. [2] Rogozinski, J. and Tovar, R., Private infrastructure concessions: The 1989-1994 national program highway in Mexico, 1998, available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=138273 or doi:10.2139/ssrn.138273 [3] Gonzlez Rodrguez, J. (2007) Las concesiones de las autopistas mexicanas, examen de su vertiente legislativa, Documento de Trabajo n. 12, Centro de Estudios Sociales y de Opinin Pblica, Mxico. [4] Tamayo-Flores, R., Financiamiento de la infraestructura local en Mxico: Temas actuales y perspectivas, USAID, Tecnolgico de Monterrey and US Embassy, 2006. [5] Project Finance, Capital markets beat Banobras to Mexicos recovery, Project Finance, January 2010. Available at http://proquest.ummi.com [6] Carpintero, S., Toll roads in Central and Eastern Europe: promises and performance, Transport Reviews, 30(3), pp. 337-359, 2010.
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Calibration of a method for selecting roundabouts as a function of the inner island treatment
J. Falciani1, A. Pratelli1, M. Martello2 & R. Souleyrette2
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Pisa, Italy Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, Iowa State University, United States
2 1
Abstract
It is generally accepted that a drivers ability to perceive, recognize, and react to surroundings contributes to safer roads. The objective of this paper is to investigate the perceptibility of roundabouts as influenced by their most distinctive feature the central island treatment. Previous work has shown how visual perception of central island treatment can improve road safety performance. Recently, the authors have suggested a roundabout central island treatment classification scheme with three categories: Reduced, Compressed and Slender. Classifying roundabout central island treatment types was necessarily somewhat subjective. This paper introduces a more quantitative measure for central island visual perception, based on the theory of visual intrusion as measured by the solid angle subtending the central island treatment. Data were collected using laser instruments, Google Streetview and Google Earth, and the related solid angles have been estimated for a large sample of roundabouts located both in Tuscany (Italy) and in the United States. The classification scheme is analyzed using the nonparametric Fisher's exact test which shows the central island treatment classification scheme is not associated with roundabout size. Therefore, central island treatment can be utilized as a unique metric for categorizing roundabouts. Descriptive statistics indicate that roundabouts with compressed island treatments have the largest solid angles (and implied visibility) when compared to either reduced or slender treatments, which have similar levels of visual intrusion as estimated by their solid angle. Keywords: roundabout, central island treatment classification, solid angle.
1 Introduction
The subject of this paper is the calibration of a model for the classification of roundabouts as a function of their central island treatment type by incorporating the idea of the visual intrusion of a roundabout central island as a positive design attribute by which to measure the perceptibility or visibility of the roundabout [2]. A goal of the paper is to quantify the level of roundabout perceptibility through the estimation of the central island treatments solid angle [3]. The solid angle (on an approach) is a function of the surface area of the island treatment facing the driver and the distance the driver is from the island. Forty roundabouts located near the cities of Pisa, Livorno and Grosseto, Italy and 45 from the U.S. are analyzed.
2 Roundabout visibility
Two distinct issues of visibility for drivers approaching and entering or exiting a roundabout can be identified as: Unobstructed line-of-sight, for: a) pedestrians b) vehicles Perception/Recognition/Readability of the roundabout. The unobstructed line-of-sight issue is critical for approaching traffic to be able to yield to pedestrians and vehicles appropriately and to select adequate gaps before entering the circulatory roadway and then to safely exit from the roundabout. However, there are other visibility issues related to the "readability" of the intersection, understood here as the perceptibility of the roundabout by drivers through the recognition of its major components, such as the central islands. The treatment of the central inner island is important for perception, recognition, and "reading" at a distance upstream of the roundabout [1]. 2.1 Visual intrusion The term visual intrusion is used to indicate the effects on aesthetics that a generic transport structure has on the surrounding environment [3]. The term transport structure implies the physical structure as well as the traffic that uses it. This definition does not necessarily imply a negative; in fact, visual intrusion can be helpful to drivers. In the case of the roundabout, the transport structure analyzed in this paper, the element that might or might not improve driver perception of the roundabout is the central island, particularly in its design or treatment (what is placed on the central island) [2]. The phenomenon of visual intrusion is assessed by measuring the solid angle and the solid angle can be defined as the portion of the surface of a sphere which covers a particular object, as seen by an observer in the center of
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the sphere [4]. For a small region of area A, the numerical value of the solid angle can be estimated by: = A / R where A is the surface area of the element that characterizes the central island (tree, vegetation, mast, memorial, etc.) perceived by a driver who is approaching the roundabout. R is the distance between the driver and the central island element, and for this study is taken as the distance from the driver to the central island treatment at a distance of 15 meters from the circulating roadway outer delineating pavement markings. This is also the minimum safe distance for a clear perception of the roundabout, in accordance with Italian guidelines for yield intersections [5]. 2.2 Treatment of the central island Three basic central island treatment types are described below [2]. a) Reduced treatment: Reduced means a treatment of content spread and diffused over the whole surface of the inner island. Treatments of this type could include a hill with simple lawn, or lawn adorned with seasonal flowers and/or low bushes. See Figure 1.
Figure 1:
Reduced treatment.
b) Compressed treatment: Compressed treatment is defined as a feature of limited height and broad width, partly or wholly to occupy the space of the entire inner island. Features are more than 1.25 meters in height, and horizontal and vertical dimensions that are similar in dimension. It can be defined with a rectangular base ratio where width is not more than 1.5 times greater than the height. See Figure 2.
Figure 2:
Compressed treatment.
c) Slender treatment: Slender treatments are designed with a prevalent central element, such as a tree with long trunk and few limbs (e.g., a palm), a tall sculpture or obelisk, a light pole, or advertizing totem - typically located in the centre of the island. We define slender where the diameter, d, of the inner island is more than five times greater than the base, b, of the treatment and where the height, h, of the treatment is at least three times the value b of its base. See Figure 3.
Figure 3:
Slender treatment.
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3 Data collection
Data were collected with a laser rangefinder, model Leica A8, which has direct as well as indirect measurement capability to accurately measure lengths, areas and volumes [6]. Its laser rangefinder can used be up to distances of 100 meters. The instrument was positioned at each entrance of the roundabout at a distance of 15 meters from the circulating roadway delineating pavement markings at height of 1.25 meters. These values correspond to the minimum safe distance for clear perception of any yield controlled and average height of the eyes of a drive, in accordance with Italian guidelines [5]. Data on basic geometric characteristics of each roundabout were also collected, such as diameter of the outer inscribed circle, the central island diameter, width of the circulating roadway, and surface area of the central island treatment from the perspective of the approaching driver. Figure 4 illustrates an example of the data collected at one of the study sites, while Table 1 summarizes the central island treatment type and solid angle data collected at each location in Italy.
Figure 4:
Example data collected.
4 Analysis of solid angle data

4.1 Analysis of independence of central island treatment and roundabout type Italian data Table 2 summarizes a descriptive statistical analysis of the solid angle data for Tuscan roundabouts by category of central island treatment type. The compressed treatment has the largest average solid angle, or visual intrusion, and is therefore assumed to provide the highest level of perceptibility for drivers approaching the roundabout.

Table 1:
Roundabout Number Type
Summary of field data for forty roundabouts in Italy.

Treatment Type Number of Approaches Solid Angle Calculated For Each Approach (steradians)
Roundabout
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
2 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 1 1 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 1 3 2 3 2 2 1
4 4 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3
0.0036; 0.0030; 0.0036 ; 0.0030 0.0018; 0.0014; 0.0015; 0.0015 0.0019; 0.0013; 0.0014; 0.0018 0.0050; 0.0050; 0.0051 0.0030; 0.0030; 0.0030 0.0050; 0.0082; 0.0055; 0.0055 0.0061; 0.0061; 0.0061;0.0061 0.0071; 0.0066; 0.015 0.0078; 0.0084; 0.0082 0.0090; 0.0088; 0.0092 0.0003; 0.0003; 0.0003 0.0010; 0.0010; 0.0010 0.0060; 0.0040; 0.0050; 0.0050 0.0062; 0.0062; 0.0062; 0.0062 0.0024; 0.0021; 0.0026; 0.0022 0.0009; 0.0003; 0.0010; 0.0004 0.0090; 0.0090; 0.0090 0.0035; 0.0033; 0.0030; 0.0033 0.0024; 0.0020; 0.0021 0.0057; 0.0057; 0.0057 0.0012; 0.0012; 0.0012; 0.0012 0.0018; 0.0014; 0.0016 0.0066; 0.0066; 0.0066 0.0081; 0.0077; 0.0081; 0.0077 0.0013; 0.0010; 0.0012; 0.0013 0.0012; 0.0009; 0.0010; 0.0010 0.0088; 0.0085; 0.0088; 0.0084 0.0042; 0.0039; 0.0042 0.0058; 0.0055; 0.0058; 0.0058 0.0016; 0.0016 ; 0.0016; 0.0016 0.0098; 0.0095; 0.0098; 0.0096 0.0060; 0.0060; 0.0060 0.0320; 0.0290; 0.0305 0.0029; 0.0025; 0.0025; 0.0027 0.0071; 0.0067; 0.0071; 0.0071 0.0120; 0.0120; 0.0120; 0.0120 0.00030; 0.00033; 0.00024; 0.00030 0.0047; 0.0051; 0.0045; 0.0045 0.0150; 0.0150; 0.0150; 0.0150 0.0062; 0.0062; 0.0062
LEGEND: Roundabout type: 1 = mini roundabout; 2 = compact roundabout; 3 = large roundabout; Treatment Type: 1 = reduced; 2 = compressed; 3 = slender
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Table 2:
Summary of solid angle data by central island treatment, Italian data.

N KFactor Solid Angle Mean [steradians] Solid Angle Range Solid Angle 95% Range [steradians]
Central Island Treatment Type
Reduced Compressed Slender
10 20 10
0.325 0.302 0.325
0.0039 0.0058 0.0044
0.0093 0.0143 0.0087
0.0009 0.0069 0.0015 0.0101 0.0016 0.0072
K is a dimensionless factor which, multiplied by the value of the range, gives the estimate of standard deviation from the normal range, i.e. the range that falls within 95% of the data collected [7]. Fisher's exact test is a test for the hypothesis test used in statistics in nonparametric situations with two nominal variables and small samples, named after its creator Ronald Fisher [8]. This test is used to check whether the data of two samples summarized in a 2x2 contingency table are consistent with the null hypothesis (H0) that the populations of origin of the two samples have the same dichotomous division and that the observed differences with the data samples are due simply to chance. Let us introduce the meaning of some terms: Contingency table: a double entry table that is used in statistics to represent and analyze relationships between two or more variables. Dichotomous division: division of an entity into two mutually exclusive, such that it cannot be both simultaneously true and complete to each other.
In our case, we "cross" type of values and types of treatment of the inner island in order to find, for each test, if the sample distribution of cases is quite random (H0 hypothesis) or whether the various treatment of central island belong to the same sample population (H1 hypothesis). Since there are three island treatment types, we conduct three separate Fisher exact tests for each pair of treatment types, as follows for the Italian data. Using the data presented in Table 3, we determine the p-value of Fisher test = 12%. As the percentage is higher than 5%; we accept the null hypothesis H0 under which the two types of productions considered belong to different populations. Table 3: Reduced treatment Compressed treatment Total Fisher exact test 1 Italian data.
Large roundabouts Compact roundabouts Total
2 10 12
8 10 18
10 20 30

Using the data presented in Table 4, we determine the p-value of Fisher test = 50%. As the percentage is higher than 5%; we accept the null hypothesis H0 under which the two types of productions considered belong to different populations. Table 4: Fisher exact test 2 Italian data. Large roundabouts Reduced treatment Slender treatment Total 2 3 5 Compact roundabouts 8 7 15 Total 10 10 20
Using the data presented in Table 5, we determine the p-value of Fisher test = 26%. As the percentage is higher than 5%; we accept the null hypothesis H0 under which the two types of productions considered belong to different populations. Table 5: Fisher exact test 3 Italian data. Large roundabouts 3 10 13 Compact roundabouts 7 10 17 Total 10 10 30
Slender treatment Compressed treatment Total
4.2 Analysis of independence of central island treatment and roundabout type U.S. data Solid angle data were also collected at forty-five locations in the United States. Summary statistics for the U.S. solid angle data are presented in Table 6. Table 6: Summary of solid angle data by central island treatment U.S. data.
Solid Angle 95% 95% Tolerance Interval Central Island Treatment Type N ( = .05) K-Factor [9] Solid Angle Mean [steradians] Solid Angle Standard Deviation Tolerance Interval [steradians] (mean) + or ( k*s)
Reduced 8 Compressed 35 Slender 2
3.732 2.490 37.674
.0113 .0278 .0078
0.0072 0.0243 0.0006
zero to 0.0382 zero to 0.0883 zero to 0.0304
Fisher exact test analysis of the data collected in U.S. yields results that are consistent with the analysis of the data from Italy, and are presented as follows.
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Using the data presented in Table 7, we determine the p-value of Fisher test = 11.3%. As the percentage is higher than 5%; we accept the null hypothesis H0 under which the two types of productions considered belong to different populations. Table 7: Fisher exact test 1 U.S. data.
Reduced treatment Compressed treatment Total
7 20 27
1 15 16
8 35 43
Using the data presented in Table 8, we determine the p-value of Fisher test = 80%. As the percentage is higher than 5%; we accept the null hypothesis H0 under which the two types of productions considered belong to different populations. Table 8: Fisher exact test 2 U.S. data.
Reduced treatment Slender treatment Total Table 9:
7 2 9
1 0 1
8 2 10
Fisher exact test 3 U.S. data.

Slender treatment Compressed treatment Total
2 20 22
0 15 15
2 35 37
Fisher's Exact Test affirms that, as defined, the three treatments belong to different populations and therefore are independent from one another. 4.3 Supplemental analysis of solid angle data U.S. data Table 10 summarizes the solid angle estimates made from forty-five roundabout locations in the U.S. Since the data does not appear to be normally distributed, a non-parametric significance test for the difference of the mean solid angle between the three treatment groups Reduced, Compressed, and Slender is calculated.

Table 10: Histogram of solid angle data U.S. data.
HistogramofsolidangledatainU.S.(n=45)
12 10
Frequency
8 6 4 2 0 0 0.004 0.008 0.012 0.016 0.02 0.024 0.028 0.032 0.036 0.04 0.044 0.048 0.052 0.056 0.06 0.064 0.068 0.072 0.076 0.08 0.084 0.088
SolidAngle(Steradians)(BinSize=0.002)
The Kruskal-Wallis [8] test yields the following: Null hypothesis: all three mean solid angles are the same. Alternative hypothesis: the three means are not equal. Alpha: = 0.05. Chi-Square critical value (with df = 2): 5.991. Calculated test statistic h: 5.205 Because h does not fall in the critical region (h < 5.991), there is insufficient evidence at alpha-level = 0.05 with the Kruskal-Wallis test to state that we reject the null hypothesis that the mean solid angles are all equal for the three central island treatment types. However, at an alpha-level of = 0.10, the ChiSquare critical value (with df = 2) is equal to 4.605, where we would reject the null hypothesis that the mean solid angles are all equal for the three central island treatment types (h > 4.065).
5 Conclusions
Previous work by the authors suggests that roundabouts characterized by a high value of solid angle are better perceived by approaching drivers [10]. The purpose of this paper was to begin to quantify this visibility as a function of central island treatment. By Fisher's exact test we confirm that the classification of roundabouts by central island treatment is independent of size. We can distinguish between reduced, compressed and slender central island treatment, and that compressed treatment is generally more visible to the driver. Future work could include development of an interactive website of roundabouts directory, similar to others existing in some European countries,
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such as the web page "Sens Giratoire from France [9]. The intention would be to characterize engineering and agronomic features of roundabouts [10] in the region of concern.
Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank the following individuals for their advice and contributions: Dr. Paolo Vernieri, Professor and Ms. Irene Bernardi, graduate student, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Pisa.
References
[1] Pratelli A. and Souleyrette R.R., Visibility, perception and roundabout safety, in Brebbia, C. (ed.) Urban Transport XIV, Vol. 107, WIT Press. Ashurst Lodge 2009, pp. 577-588. [2] Pratelli A., Souleyrette R.R. and Harding C., Roundabout perception: review of standards and guidelines for advanced warning, in Pratelli A. and Brebbia C. (eds.) Urban Transport XV, Vol. 111, WIT Press, Ashurst Lodge 2010, pp. 71-82. [3] Hopkinson, R.G., The evaluation of visual intrusion in transport situations, Traffic Engineering & Control, Dec. 1972, pp. 387-395. [4] Watkins T., The Concept of Solid Angle. Silicon Valley & Tornado Alley, applet-magic.com, http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/solidangle.htm. [5] Italian Ministry of Facilities and Transport, Guidelines for the functional and geometric construction of intersection facilities, DM N 1699, 19th April 2006. [6] Falciani J., A roundabout classification model based on the inner island treatment. Laurea Thesis, Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Pisa 2009. [7] Crow E.L., Davis F. A. and Maxfield M.W., Statistics Manual, Dover Edition, New York 1960. [8] Walpole R.E., Myers R.H., Myers S.L. and Ye K., Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists, 8th Edition, Pearson International Ed., 2007. [9] http://www.sens-giratoire.com. [10] Vernieri P., The roundabout: an element in the urban landscape. in Vernieri P. (ed.) "Roundabouts: a visiting card for the environment, (in Italian) Felici Editore, Pisa 2008.
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Signal setting in an urban area: a procedure with day-to-day dynamic and stability constraints
G. E. Cantarella1, P. Velon2 & A. Vitetta2
1 2
Dept of Civil Engineering, University of Salerno, Italy Dept of Maths, Comp. Sci., Electr., Transp., Mediterranean University of Reggio Calabria, Italy
Abstract
In this paper a model and a procedure for signal setting design with demand assignment are reported. The model is developed within a day-to-day dynamic framework where demand assignment is dealt with through deterministic (or stochastic) process models. The system of models, based on a what-to approach, generates signal timings taking into account users path choice behaviour as well as stability constraints. The main contribution in this paper is the specification of the heuristic procedure for signal setting optimization, based on genetic algorithm. The procedure is tested on a real scale test site with the objectives to validate the system of models and the optimization procedure. A sensitivity analysis with respect to demand level is also briefly discussed. Keywords: signal setting, traffic control, day-to-day dynamic.
1 Introduction
This paper deals with the design of signal setting in urban areas. This problem can not be solved without considering the user behaviour at least at route choice level. The resulting problem belongs to the class of problem of transportation supply design with assignment [14]. Two main approaches have been proposed with respect to the method for demand assignment (with probabilistic path choice behaviour): equilibrium assignment, effectively approached by fixed-point models; day-to-day dynamic process models, derived from time-discrete non-linear dynamic system theory.

Three main approaches have been proposed with respect to the method for signal setting design: with fixed flows, with flows from equilibrium assignment, with flows from day-to-day dynamic assignment. In signal setting with fixed flows, say optimization of signal timings, the flow pattern is considered known (for a general review see [5]). This approach can be considered day-to-day static because the flows (obtained from observations or from a model) are supposed fixed as regard the optimization in each time slice, even though they can vary during consecutive time slice. In signal setting with equilibrium assignment, the flow pattern is considered affected by the user path choice behaviour. Interaction between the user choice behaviour and the level of service provided by the transportation network is addressed through user equilibrium assignment that searches for mutually consistent arc flows and costs. Signal setting with equilibrium assignment has been proposed in literature since middle 70s [6] according to exact approaches, say Global Optimization with Equilibrium (EGO), or heuristic approaches, such as Recursive Optimization (RO) (also called iterative procedures) and Embedded Optimization (EO). Some methods are relative to the signal setting design in emergency condition [7, 8]. In signal setting with day-to-day assignment, the evolution over time of the flow pattern is explicitly modelled through dynamic process models. The approaches proposed in literature are based fixed flows or on equilibrium assignment, well established in literature. Some relevant issues may not be effectively addressed under the equilibrium approach, mainly uniqueness and stability, sensitivity to parameters and/or starting state. These issues are better casted within the day-to-day dynamics paradigm, including deterministic process models as well as stochastic ones. In this paper a model and a procedure for signal setting design are reported. The model is developed within a day-to-day dynamic framework where demand assignment is dealt with through deterministic process models. This problem seems relevant since optimization of signal timings under equilibrium assumptions may not guarantee that an effective solution is obtained, because it may well be not an attractor of the evolution over time. The main contribution of this paper is the specification of the general procedure, based on a genetic algorithm, specified and applied to a real size network for solving the described model. Results of a sensitivity analysis with respect to demand level are also reported. After this introduction, section 2 briefly reports the main part of the general model that is reported in [9]. Section 3 reports the genetic proposed procedure specified for the optimization model. Section 4 describes how the proposed approach can be applied to real scale networks and some sensibility of the procedure in relation to the user choice simulation behaviour. Section 5 reports some conclusions and further developments.
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2 Models for signal setting

A transportation system is usually modelled through a network with a transportation cost ca and a flow fa associated to each arc a. Without any loss of generality each access a of a junction is assumed corresponding to arc a (but not necessarily vice versa). Users are assumed grouped into classes. Let (in alphabetical order): Bi is the arc-path incidence matrix for user class i, with entries bak = 1 if arc a belongs to path k, bak = 0 otherwise; c be the vector of arc costs, with entries ca, including delays at junctions, running times, monetary costs for tolls, etc.; di 0 be the demand flow for users belonging to class i; f 0 be the vector of arc flows, with entries fa; hence for an arc a corresponding to an access fa, is the arrival flow; be the vector of arc flows at day t; ft g Sg be the vector of signal timings (such as green times, cycle time, starting or ending time of the green period for each access, the offset of the signal plan for each junction, and possibly others); xt be the vector of arc forecasted costs at day t, say the costs that affect today user choice behaviour; n be the number of arcs; pi 0 is the vector of path choice probabilities for user class i, with 1T pi = 1, with entries given by the probability pk that users of class i choose path k; Sf = {f = i di Bi pi : pi 0, 1T pi = 1 i} be the set of feasible arc flows, nonempty (if the network is connected), compact, convex; Sg be the set of feasible signal timings (including non-negativity constraints). 2.1 Static flows Congestion is generally simulated assuming that arc costs depend on arc flows, and possibly on signal timings through the arc cost function: c = c(f, g) (1) The arc flow function can be defined as: f = f(c) i di Bi pi(BiT c) Sf (2) The user equilibrium assignment searches for mutually consistent arc flows and costs, thus assuming that the signal timings are known, g = go, equilibrium assignment can be expressed by fixed-point models by combining the arc cost function and the arc flow function [10, 11]: c* = c(f*, g = go) Rn ;+ (3)
n f* = f(c*) Sf R ;+
(4)
In the following the arc cost function is assumed continuous and continuously differentiable w.r.t. arc flows, f, with Jacobian matrix Jc(f,g=go)= =Jac[c(f,g=go)]f. For given signal timings g = go, w.r.t. arc flows, f, the arc cost function may be assumed: monotone strictly increasing (or simply monotone

increasing), say with (semi-)positive definite (for real vectors) Jacobian Jc(f), and possibly with symmetric Jacobian Jc(f), as it occurs for separable cost functions. Other equivalent models can be formulated w.r.t. path variables: f* = f(c(f*, g = go)) Sf (5) Sufficient conditions for existence of solutions can be easily derived, through Brouwer theorem, requiring that both the arc cost function and the arc flow function are continuous (and the network is connected). Assuming that the arc flow function is monotone decreasing, as for invariant probabilistic path choice functions, if the arc cost function is monotone strictly increasing uniqueness is assured; if the Jacobian matrices of both the arc flow function, f(c), and the arc cost function, c(f, g = go), are meaningful, uniqueness is granted by positive definite Jc(f, g = go) and negative semi-definite Jf(c). Considering static flows (where flows do not change from one day to another one and are assumed time-independent) three cases can be considered: (I) signal setting with fixed flows (fo), (II) signal setting with feasible flows and (III) signal setting with equilibrium assignment. I. For a given Fixed Flow (FF) arc vector, f = fo, most signal setting methods based on arrival flows can formally be expressed as: (6) gFF = argoptg Sg z(g, f = fo) where z(g, f = fo) is an objective function to be optimized, such as the total cost or total delay to be minimized: T z(g, f = fo) = fo c(f = fo, g) II. Global Optimization (GO) model for signal setting, where arc flow vectors are assumed belonging to the feasible arc flow set can formally be expressed as: (gGO, fGO) = argoptg Sg, f Sf z(g, f) (7) III. Equilibrium constrained Global Optimization (EGO) models are extension of (unconstrained) global optimization models (7): (gEGO, fEGO) = argoptg Sg, 2.2 Day-to-day dynamic flows This section formally introduces signal setting with (day-to-day) dynamic process assignment after [12], where evolution over day t is explicitly modelled. Congestion is simulated assuming that arc costs depend on arc flows ft and on signal timings g, through the arc cost function: c = c(f t, g) (10) The arc flow function can be defined: f = f(xt) = i di Bi pi(BiT xt) Sf (11) The specification of a dynamic process requires the explicit modelling of user learning and forecasting and user choice updating behaviour. A quite simple but effective model based on exponential smoothing is presented assuming that
f Sf
z(g, f)
(8) (9)
w.r.t. f f(c(f, g)) = 0
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signal timings are known, g = go. Arc forecasted costs depend on yesterday actual and forecasted costs, through the cost updating recursive equation: (12) xt = c(ft-1, g = go) + () xt-1 where ]0,1]. Moreover, each day users may review yesterday choice with a fixed probability, and their reviewing behaviour can be simulated with an exponential smoothing filter, through the flow updating recursive equation: (13) ft = f(xt) + () ft-1 where ]0,1]. The recursive equations (12) and (13) define a deterministic process model for demand assignment to a transportation network. For given signal timings, g = go, the state at day t is defined by the vectors of arc anticipated costs and arc flows, (xt, ft), belonging to state space given by Rn ;+ Sf. Fixed-points states, where the evolution over time of the system stops (even though they may not be attractors), are given by: (xt, ft) = (xt-1, ft-1) = (x*, f*) (14) This condition combined with equations (12) and (13) yields: x* = c(f*, g = go) (15) f* = f(x*) (16) Assuming that the arc flow function has a symmetric negative semi-definite Jacobian, Jf(c), as it occurs for invariant choice functions, if Jacobian, Jc(f), of arc cost function is symmetric positive definite, then matrix Jc(ft, g = go) Jf(xt) has only non-positive real eigenvalues, a = a(ft, xt) = Rea). In this case a fixed-point (x*, f*) is (locally) stable if each eigenvalue a* = a(f*, x*) of matrix Jc(f*, g = go) Jf(x*), computed at the fixed-point state, meets the following condition a(f*, x*) | = Rea*) oa (17) where o = (1 + ((1 ) + (1 )) / ()). Equilibrium stability may be addressed within models for (global) optimization with equilibrium assignment by including further constraints expressing stability conditions depending on assumptions about the Jacobian matrix Jc(f, g = go) of arc cost function. Thus, a model for global optimization of signal timing with stable equilibrium constraints (SEGO) may be specified as follows: (18) (gSEGO, fSEGO) = argoptg Sg, f Sf z(g, f) w.r.t. f f(c(f, g)) = 0 (19) MAXa | a(f, c(f, g)) | o (20) The evaluation of (20) to a large scale network is time consuming. It is useful to note that the maximum modulus among all the eigenvalues of a matrix is always less than (or equal to) any matrix norm and for transportation networks the Frobenius norm provides a very tight approximation and at the same time can easily be computed; hence (20) can be approximated as: (f, g) = || Jc(f, g) Jf(c = c(f, g)) ||F o 0 (21)
3 Proposed procedure
The design procedure (figure 1) proposed in this paper aims at the solution of signal setting with stability constraints derived from a day-to-day dynamic model. The procedure generates and analyses potential solutions in order to optimize an objective function. It is made up by two main interacting subprocedures: an optimization module, based on a genetic algorithm, which provides new solution to be add to the population of solutions; an assignment module, based on a fixed-point model (section 2), which provides flows and objective function values for each generated solutions; the objective function also includes the stability constraints through a penalty function.
Algorithm parameters
Design model
Design variables Present system Best solution
Optimization
Objective function
Assignment
Figure 1:
Design procedure.
According to the optimization genetic algorithm each solution vector g is described by a chromosome (figure 2) with three sections. The first has one entry containing the common value of cycle time, useful for cycle evaluation relative to each junction. The second has a number of entries equal to the number of junctions and each of them being the integer multiple, sMu, of the cycle time of junction u w.r.t the common cycle time, CB. The thirty contains the ratios, uj, between the time of each stage j of junction u and the cycle time for the same junction; in each junction, the number of these entries is equal to the number of stages less 1. (The structure can be extended to include offsets). | CB | sM1 | sM2 | | sMi | 11 12 1S1-1 | 21 22 2S2-1 | | u1 u2 uSu-1 | | N1 N2 NSN-1 |
sMu = ratio CB = common between cycle cycle for junction u and CB time uj = ratio between time of the stage j and cycle for junction u
N = number of signalized junctions Su = number of stages for the generic junction i
Figure 2:
Structure of the chromosome.
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The optimization genetic algorithm (figure 3) starts with an initial set of solutions (POP), grouped into a randomly generated population (Pop_G). A new population Pop_A is generated. Afterwards, population evolves through three operators (or evolution functions), which are sequentially applied. Reproduction consists in selecting a sub-set of solutions from the population, the best will likely survive and create new offspring (Pop_R). Crossover selects genes from parent chromosomes and creates new offspring (Pop_C). Then, the mutation takes place and it changes randomly the new offspring, in order to prevent all solutions in the population falling into the local optimum of solved problems (Pop_M). Once a new set of solutions is generated, a stopping test evaluates whether a new iteration must be performed or not, according to some stopping criteria. At the end of each iteration, the best solution replaces the current project.
START Generation Pop_G POP Pop_M Reproduction Pop_R Crossover Pop_C Mutation Pop_M Pop_A NO Stopping test YES MUT CRO
REP
g(Pop_G Pop:M) var ff SIMULAZIONE AND g not yet analysed g Assignment ff z
END
Figure 3:
Structure of the solution generator procedure.
In each stage, new solutions are evaluated with the assignment procedure for the estimation of objective function, z. The stability constraint for penalizing those solutions that does not guarantee the equilibrium stability through a poor value of the objective function is activated. The procedure has two types of input relative to the transport system models and to the algorithm parameters. The transportation system is specified with travel demands models (that represent how users behaviour changes with users cost), transport supply models (that represent how users cost changes with traffic flow) and demand-supply interaction model. In the supply models the dependence between signal setting and traffic flows is also included. The models are relative to the present configuration of supply facilities and services and user behaviour. The genetic algorithm parameters are the population size (POP), the crossover (CRO) and mutation (MUT) rates, the reproduction parameter (REP), and the

convergence test parameter. Constraints on the minimum and maximum cycle length, and minimum green time are also considered. The transport model gives for each solution g, a global network indicator, which represents the objective function, including a penalty term for the stability constraint, then, the current optimal solution updated g*. The algorithm stops when the (pre-fixed) maximum number of iterations without improving the value of the objective function is reached. Output is the current optimal vector g*.
4 Application
The procedure has been applied to the network of Crotone, a city in the southern Italy, containing 15 centroids, 157 nodes and 432 arcs, 88 OD pairs. Seven signalized junctions have been identified. Each street link, ending in a signalized junction, is modelled through a running arc and possibly several parallel access arcs. For the run arcs, the Davidson hyperbolic function with a linear approximation of 0.75 for the flowcapacity ratio has been adopted; for access arcs, the Webster function with a linear approximation 0.40 for the flow-capacity ratio has been adopted. The equilibrium flow vector is obtained with an user equilibrium assignment with (probabilistic) C-Logit route choice model and explicit path enumeration. A (scale) dispersion parameter, , equal to 2 hours has been considered. In relation to the solution generator, the parameters adopted are: crossover rate 0.4; mutation rate 0.4; maximum number of iterations 10; population numerousness 30 chromosomes. The objective function z is evaluated considering the sum of the delays at the designed junctions. The constraints are: cycle times must be in the range [27 sec, 120 sec]; each stage must be no less than 7 sec; user behaviour is expressed with equilibrium condition (19); stability of equilibrium is expressed by stability condition (21). In order to define the best genetic parameters, in the table 1 the procedure is tested for some values (0,2, 0,4, 0,6, 0,8) of the crossover and mutation rate (d = 5300 veic/h; = 2 h; o(, ) = 9.5). The best value in term of convergence is for crossover rate and mutation rate equal to 0,4. Table 1:
Crossover rate 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2
Sensibility of the algorithm in relation to the crossover and mutation rate.

Mutation rate 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 Total delay (veic h/h) actual optimal 319 69 319 71 319 58 319 65
actual -4,014 -4,014 -4,014 -4,014 Optimal -4,008 -4,008 -4,008 -4,008
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The problem has been solved for different values of total travel demand for the morning peak hour: 4240, 5300 (actual demand), 6360 veic/h. It is assumed for the simulation that = 0.70 (parameters for choice updating) and = 0.5 (parameter for cost updating) which give o(, ) = 5.5. The procedure is started assuming the actual signal timings as current optimal solution; it is worth noting that this solution could not be stable depending on the value of o(, ). Considering the actual demand (5300 veic/h), the proposed procedure, after few iterations, provides a stable ( = 0.001) optimal solution, with a 35% reduction of total delay with respect to the actual (stable) solution, as shown in figure 4 by black triangles. This figure also shows results of increasing o(, ) from 5.5 to 9.5; a new solution with a further reduction of total delay is obtained (black circles); as expected since the constraint has been relaxed stability condition is satisfied ( = 4.014).
500 450 z (fEQ (g ), g ) (veic h/h) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 2 4 6 iterations 8 10
Figure 4:
Results of the optimization procedure for demand = 5300 for different values of o.
On the other hand, after decreasing o(, ) from 5.5 to 3.5, the actual solution is not stable (showing = 1.964) and the current solution is not updated, since no other stable solution can be found (blank squares). This example supports the theoretical conclusion that existence of a solution satisfying both equilibrium and stability constraints may not exist. This case becomes more likely after any increase of demand. Effects of changes of demand are briefly discussed below. It is worth noting that if a unique solution to equilibrium assignment exists f*, it turns out to be a function of the signal timings, f* = fEQ(g). Figure 5 shows the effect of reduction of demand from 5300 to 4240. In this case too, for o(, ) equal to 5.5 or 9.5 a stable solution better than the actual one may be found, whilst no stable solution may be found for o(, ) equal to 3.5.

500 450 z (fEQ (g ) , g ) (veic h/h) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 2 4 6 iterations 8 10
Figure 5:
Figure 6 shows the effect increase of demand from 5300 to 6360. In this case, a stable solution better than the actual one may be found for o(, ) equal to 9.5 only, whilst no stable solution may be found for o(, ) equal to 3.5 or 5.5.
500 450 z (fEQ (g ), g ) (veic h/h) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 2 4 6 iterations 8 10
Figure 6:
5 Conclusions
In this paper the problem of signal setting with (day-to-day) dynamic process assignment has been described. This problem seems relevant since optimization of signal timings under equilibrium assumptions not guarantee that an effective
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solution is obtained as the obtained solution may not satisfy stability conditions (as those described in the paper). A heuristic solution procedure has also been specified on genetic algorithm for the solution generation. Results of an application to a real scale network (with C-Logit route choice model) have also been reported. These results confirm that an increase of demand may make stability less likely. Some values for procedure parameters are tested. Several issues seem worth of further research analysis. Existence and uniqueness of solution of proposed models could be investigated. Other signal variables may be considered such as offsets, possibly together with street directions. Solution procedures based on other heuristics may be tested and compared with the proposed procedure. The calibration of all the parameters (model and procedure parameters) is a relevant issue still open apart from very few papers.
Acknowledgements
Partially supported under UNISA local grant n. ORSA091208 financial year 2009, local grant n. ORSA107325 financial year 2010, and PRIN national grants n. 2007R9CSXY_003 at UNIRC and 2007R9CSXY_004 at UNISA financial year 2007.
References
[1] Cascetta E. (2009) Transportation Systems Analysis. Springer. [2] Cantarella G. E., Vitetta A. (2006) The multi-criteria road network design problem in an urban area. Transportation, 33, pp. 357-588. [3] Russo F., Vitetta A. (2006) A Topological Method to Choose Optimal Solutions after Solving the Multi-criteria Urban Road Network Design Problem. Transportation, 33, pp. 347-370. [4] Cantarella G. E., Pavone G., Vitetta A. (2006) Heuristic for urban road network design: lane layout and signal setting. European Journal of Operational Research, 175, pp. 1682-1695. [5] Papageorgiou M. (editor) (1991) Concise Encyclopedia of Traffic and Transportation. Pergamon Press. [6] Allsop R.E. (1974) Some possibilities for using traffic control to influence trip destinations and route choice. Proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium on Transportation and Traffic Theory. Buckley ed., Amsterdam, Elsevier, pp. 345-374. [7] Russo F. & Vitetta A. (2006) Risk evaluation in a transportation system. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 1 (2), pp. 170-191. [8] Marcian A., Musolino G., Vitetta A. (2010) Signal setting design on a road network: application of a system of models in evacuation conditions. Proceedings of Risk Analysis VII. WIT Press. Edited by C. Brebbia, pp. 443, 454.

[9] Cantarella G. E, Velon P., Vitetta A. (2010) Signal setting with demand assignment: global optimization with equilibrium stability constraints. The Third International Symposium on Dynamic Traffic Assignment, 29-31 July, 2010, Takayama, Japan. [10] Daganzo C.F. (1983) Stochastic Network Equilibrium with Multiple Vehicle Types and Asymmetric, Indefinite Link Cost Jacobians. Transportation Science, 17, pp. 282-300. [11] Cantarella G.E. (1997) A General Fixed-Point Approach to Multi-Mode Multi-User Equilibrium Assignment with Elastic Demand. Transportation Science, 31, pp. 107-128. [12] Cantarella G.E. (2009) Signal setting with dynamic process assignment. New Developments in Transport Planning: Advances in Dynamic Traffic Assignment. Immers L.H., Tampere C.M.J., Viti F. (eds), 2009. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK - Northampton, MA, USA.
785
Optimal planning of selective waste collection

S. Raicu, D. Costescu, E. Roca & M. Popa
University Politehnica of Bucharest, Romania
Abstract
The paper presents an optimisation method for selective waste collection services in university campuses in Bucharest. Based on geographic information system (GIS) procedures and algorithms, an optimisation method for selective waste collection services is developed. The area of Bucharest City, the road network, the location of the selective waste collection points in the main university campuses and the location of the collection station are organized in GIS format. Complex geodatabase structures that allow solving the large scale selective waste collection problem are designed. The routing solution that minimises the total travel time is determined taking into consideration the local road network properties and the location of the collection station for each category of waste (glass, paper and plastic). The methodology is applied for the main University Campuses in Bucharest. The map with the routing solution, the required number of vehicles and the schedule for each category of waste and for each vehicle are obtained. The developed method provides informational and technological support for public authorities and selective waste collection operators. Keywords: selective waste collection, optimisation, vehicle routing, scheduling, geographic information system.
1 Introduction
The problem presented in this paper is from a study carried out for the selective waste collection management system in university campuses in Bucharest. With over 250000 students, Bucharest is the greatest national university centre of Romania. There are over 15 important universities with academic, administrative and residential activities organized in campuses spread out in different areas of the city. The campuses have different organization systems, according with the structure, location, tradition and evolution of each university. Due to the large

number of the student and employees in all these campuses, selective waste management is essential for minimizing the impact on the environment. Since 2006 the municipal authority in partnership with waste collection cooperatives and associations has been developing a selective waste collection management system. For the period February July 2006 a pilot project was applied for selective collection of paper, glass and paper in the area of University Politehnica of Bucharest. In that stage were collected about 22000 kg recyclable wastes, from which 12000 kg paper, 7000 kg plastic and 3000 kg glass. Since then the system has been developed in other campuses. Figure 1 shows the increasing volume of selective waste collected in university campuses.
30000 25000 20000 tonnes 15000 10000 5000 0
2006
2007 Paper
2008 Plastic
2009 Glass
2010
Figure 1:
Volume of selective waste collected in university campuses.
In order to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of the selective collection system, optimisation methods are necessary for services planning. In this paper we describe methods for vehicle routing and collection service scheduling. Examples for campuses located in one of the six administrative sectors of the Bucharest are given.
2 Selective collection model overview

The optimisation of selective collection services implies solving transport routing and scheduling problems. The objectives of these two combinatorial problems consist of minimising the total haulage time, the fleet size, the transport costs or an aggregated function of the above mentioned. The problem is defined on a graph G ( J , D) , where J K L ;
K k1 , k 2 ,..., k N is the vertex set including the collection waste centres or warehouses for paper, plastic and glass and L l1 , l2 ,..., lM is the vertex set
including the selective collection points where blue containers for paper, yellow container for plastic and green container for glass are located. The arc set is
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defined as
D (k i , l j ) k i K , l j L (li , l j ) li , l j L, i j . Each arc
has associated a non-negative value t ij representing travel time. Each selective collection point li has associated a non-negative value t p representing the waste container picking time. Three containers (for selective paper, plastic and glass waste) with the capacity Vsel 3 m
3
are located in
each collection point. On a single route, a vehicle can collect three containers for the same category of waste (Figure 2). Different container filling intensities are registered for each type of waste. Therefore each selective collection point has associated a set of
1,2,3 , where w =1 for paper container, w =2 for picking periods Ti w

I
plastic container and w =3 for glass container.

l1 k1 l2 l3 k2 l4 l6 unloaded trip loaded trip l5
Figure 2:
Examples of vehicle trip.
The Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) involves finding a set of routes, starting and ending at one collection centre, which services a set of selective collection points. The objective function is to minimise the total travel time. Let Z 1,2,..., Z max denote the set of trips that satisfy all the collecting demands for all categories of waste. The routing phase can be mathematically expressed as:
3 N M M M zj t ij (1) Minimize wz wi zi t zj ij i 1 w1 zZ i 1 j 1 j 1
subject to
w1 zZ
wz
Z max
(2)

w1 i 1
i i
wi
(3)

zZ i 1
zi
max Ti w
w i
, w 1,2,3 min T
(4)
zj
zZ
max Ti
i
T jw
, w 1,2,3, j 1,2,..., M
(5)
where wz : decision variable; wz 1 if the trip z is planned for the waste w;
wz 0 wi : zi :
otherwise.
decision variable;
wi 1
if the centre ki collect category w of waste; the trip z starts from centre ki and
wi 0 otherwise. decision variable; zi 1 if

otherwise. decision variable; otherwise.
zi 0
zj :
zj 1
if the trip z serve the point lj and
zj 0
The objective function (1) measures the total travel time of the system. Equation (2) expresses the trip allocation on waste category collection. Relation (3) is a constraint related to the type of the collection centres. The restrictions (4) and (5) express the demand satisfaction restrictions. When for each collection point, a time interval I
i i min , max for picking
operation is settled according with the location in the campus (faculties and administrative buildings area or student residential area), the problem turns into a Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows (VRPTW). Bodin [1] presented an overview of VRPTW optimisation methods. In the case of selective waste collection presented in this paper, a geographic information system (GIS) model is developed for solving VRPTW. Allocation and routing procedure available in ArcGIS Network Analyst Extension are used. The section 4 provides a description of the logical structure designed for the GIS model. In order to solve the VRPTW, we have to schedule the collecting trips according with the periodically demands. The problem deals with finding the subsets of collection points, which have to be served at the same time. The next section presents an algorithm for selecting and ordering the sets of selective collection containers, which are to be processed on a task. The algorithm is applied for each waste category and for the given set of picking periods.
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Vehicle routing problem is solved for each waste collection centre and for each set of containers obtained as solution in scheduling algorithm. Finally, the detailed vehicle schedules are calculated, with respect to the time window constraints.
3 Collection planning algorithm

Different deterministic scheduling methods are developed for practical application (Martelo et al. [2]). The problem of scheduling containers picking operation needs a peculiar approach. As mentioned before, the sets of picking selective waste w 1,2,3. The first step consists in identifying the subsets of collection points with simultaneous demands for a selective waste category (Figure 3). We describe below the algorithm built for solving this issue.
l1 l2
. . .
periods Ti
are given for container location l L and for each category of

w i
T11 T12 T13
T11 T1 T 21 T22 T23

2
T11 T13
lM
TM1 TM2 T M3 11
TM1 TM2 TM3 21
TM1
time
Figure 3:
Gantt chart of picking periods.
We consider the following parameters: The vector of collecting times and
iw
w where w 1,2,3 w 1w , 2w ,..., M is the time when in the location l i the container for the waste w
have to be collect. The due date parameters

w
w j
representing the times when collection
operation has to be processed for the waste w. The set of tasks j including all location lk which have to be served at the time
w j .
The set of scheduling period
T , w 1,2,3 .
w max

The algorithm for solving the container allocation on collection tasks follows the next steps: 1. Parameter initialization 1.1. Assign the given period to any collection time
i 1,2,..., M .
iw Ti w ,
w
1.2. Assign for the first iteration j 1 and
w w j min j i M
and j .
w w i M w
1.3. Assign the maximum period to the scheduling period Tmax max Ti . 2. Iteration 2.1. For all i 1,2,..., M , if
iw iw
then j j li ,
w
iw iw Ti w
min
w j i M w i .
and go to step 2.2.
2.2. Calculate the parameters for the next iteration Until
j j 1,
then go
T
w j
w max
go to step 2.1. If
w Tmax w j
3.
to step 3. Saving the solution 3.1. Export the sets of task j in a table format, which will be used as
w
input data in the GIS model.
4 Vehicle routing model

Based on geographic information system (GIS) procedures, a model for solving the vehicle routing problem is developed. The model is applied for identifying the routes starting and ending at one collection centre and serving the set of selective collection containers. The routing solution that minimises the total travel time is determined taking into consideration the local road network properties and the location of the collection containers for each category of waste (glass, paper and plastic). Before the routing model could be constructed, preparing geospatial databases is necessary. The datasets used in the GIS model include: Area of administrative sectors of Bucharest City; Road network; Area of university campuses; Location of the selective waste collection centres; Location of the selective waste collection containers in the university campuses. The map representation of the geospatial datasets is shown in figure 4.
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Legend University campuses Collecting container Collection Centre
Figure 4:
Map of the model features.

Feature Class Collection waste centres Paper Container
Personal Geodatabase Selective Collection System
Feature Data Set Selective Collection Sets
Plastic Container Glass Container
Feature Data Set Bucharest Road Network
Feature Class Streets
Network Dataset Street Network
Figure 5:
Elements in network datasets creation.

In order to create a network dataset and solving the large scale selective waste collection problem is necessary to organise all the datasets in an integrated geodatabase structure (Figure 5). A network dataset is created based on the road network geospatial database. Connectivity rules are applied and time and distance attributes are used as evaluators in the network dataset. With all the geospatial data digitized and necessary attributes added, the vehicle routing model can be built. The ArcToolBox ArcGIS software is used for creating the model shown in Figure 6. Procedure Make Route Layer is applied for the street network dataset. The selective collection containers are located on the route layer and Network Analyst procedure is used for solving the vehicle routing problem.
CollectionNetwork Model Make Route Layer
StreetNetwork
Route Add Location Network Analyst
PaperContainer Solve
PaperContainer RouteLayer
Figure 6:
Flow chart of the vehicle routing GIS model.

I
The model has to be successively applied for each set of selective waste containers (paper, plastic and glass) and for all sets of task j established in the previous step.
5 Case study
The model described before has been applied to optimise the selective waste collection system in university campuses located in the Sixth Administrative Sector of Bucharest. Figure 4 shows the location of the selective waste containers and collecting warehouses. The previous presented algorithm has been used in order to planning the collection services. A collecting tasks selection is presented in Table 1. The routing problem has been solved successively for each task with the developed GIS model. The route layer resulted for the first task is shown in Figure 7.
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Table 1:
OBJECTID 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CollectionPoint Automatica Rectorat Mecanica Transporturi IntrareVasileMilea P22 Blocuri_U R1 Belvedere R3 ComplexLeu CantinaLeu Grozavesti1 Grozavesti2 ANEFS Drept CamineConstructii
Collecting services.
W_Id 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Period 5 5 10 20 10 5 5 10 5 14 10 5 10 10 12 12 7 Allocation Wahrehouse #05 Wahrehouse #05 Wahrehouse #05 Wahrehouse #05 Wahrehouse #05 Wahrehouse #05 Wahrehouse #05 Wahrehouse #05 Wahrehouse #05 Wahrehouse #05 Wahrehouse #05 Wahrehouse #05 Wahrehouse #05 Wahrehouse #05 Wahrehouse #03 Wahrehouse #03 Wahrehouse #03 Task #10501 #10501 #10503 #10506 #10503 #10501 #10501 #10503 #10501 #10505 #10503 #10501 #10503 #10503 #10304 #10304 #10302
Figure 7:
Route layers.

Each collecting point needs 12 minutes for loading/unloading the container. The total travel time along all routes is calculated based on each arc travel time from the network dataset. Detailed schedule table are obtained for each collecting vehicle.
6 Conclusion
Selective waste collecting in university campuses is important for minimizing the impact on the environment. The collection services have to be organised in campuses with restricted access and in traffic congested urban areas. In order to reduce the total costs, the vehicle fuel consumption and pollutant emission, efficient methods for planning the recyclable waste collecting trips are necessary. GIS tools and procedure are useful for optimal planning of selective waste collection. The GIS model presented in this paper solves the routing problem. Additional programming algorithm is necessary for planning the collection services. The developed methods provide informational and technological support for public authorities and selective waste collection operators. Decision makers can also use the model to explore tradeoffs between planning alternatives and identify the optimal solution. The proposed model could be easily adapted for other practical special cases.
Acknowledgement
The paper has been supported by the research contract 92110 Civic Education for Selective Waste Collection in University Campuses ECOSED, funding by UEFISCDI/PNCDI-II.
References
[1] Bodin, L.D., Twenty Years of Routing and Scheduling, Operations Research, 38, pp. 571-579, 1990. [2] Martelo, S., Laporte, G., Minoux, M., Ribeiro, C. (eds). Survey in combinatorial optimization, Volume 31 of Annals of Discrete Mathematics, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1987. [3] ECOROM, ECOROM Annual Report, Bucuresti, Romania, 2011. [4] ESRI, ArcGIS9. Network Analyst, Redlands, USA, 2005.
Section 11 Container maritime transport (special session chaired by F. Russo)
797
Container maritime transport on an international scale: a procedure for aggregate estimation of demand variables
F. Russo & G. Musolino
Universit degli Studi Mediterranea di Reggio Calabria, DIMET Dipartimento di Informatica, Matematica, Elettronica e Trasporti, Italy
Abstract
The paper presents a procedure for an aggregate estimation of demand variables of the containerized maritime freight market. The procedure is specified in different steps and a preliminary application is executed to forecast the throughput and transhipment variables in the Mediterranean area, according to expectations before the crisis and then to the new phenomena occurring today in the container market. Keywords: containerized maritime freight, demand variables, Mediterranean area.
1 Introduction
In the scientific and technical literature, if variables of freight demand have been identified and measured [1], few variables have been associated to containerized maritime freight demand. They may be grouped into three main classes: throughput, transhipment and origin-destination (OD) flow. The first two classes of variables may be further characterized according to whether containers are full or empty. The third variable may provide a useful characterization in terms of empty containers if the problem of empty container management needs to be highlighted. Throughput of a port derives from measurements of the number of containers handled by the (ship to shore) cranes per unit of time (e.g. TEUs/year); it is generally used for ex-post analysis. Throughput in the Mediterranean area is obtained as the sum of the throughput values in Mediterranean ports.

Transhipment is obtained as the proportion of throughput related to containers that are subject to transhipment operations (e.g. TEUs/year). Transhipment in the Mediterranean area is obtained as the sum of transhipment values in Mediterranean ports. Containerized OD flows represent the amount of containerized freight travelling from a geographical area of origin to one of destination per unit time (e.g. TEUs/year). In the containerized maritime freight market, where today all actors are dealing with the effects of the global economic crisis of years 2008-2010, there is a clear need to have a correct estimation of demand variables to support tactical and strategic decisions regarding the allocation of private and public resources. An important contribution is given by international consultants and research institutes, working in the field, providing general estimates concerning levels and trends referring to given macro-geographical areas and years. However, the lack of disaggregated data, not easy to obtain from the operators who prefer their activities not to be public, does not allow the same estimations to be obtained for more specific geographical areas and periods of interest. At the same time, historical available data (when provided by operators) for financial and commercial analysis and/or to monitor internal production processes (expost analysis) generally refer to those variables of the container maritime freight market connected to the use of port infrastructures, which are not clearly linked to trade-related variables. The latter variables are better suited to forecasting purposes (ex-ante analysis). This paper aims to define a procedure to support: ex-post analysis for historical estimation at the disaggregate level, through estimation from heterogeneous data sources of demand variables of the containerized maritime freight market; ex-ante analysis for forecasting purposes, through the specification and calibration of relationships between the throughput and OD flow variables. The procedure is specified in its different steps and a test application is executed to estimate the future trajectories of the demand variables for the Mediterranean area, according to expectations before the crisis and then to current developments in the container market. This work is part of a two-year research project financed by the Italian Ministry of University and Research, whose general objective is to define guidelines for the competitiveness of the Italian transhipment ports of Gioia Tauro, Cagliari and Taranto in the euro-Mediterranean context. Other specific lines of research concern the development, and the application to the Mediterranean area, of models to estimate the demand variables of container maritime transport [2], of choice models of maritime container services and ports [3], of methods to evaluate the efficiency of container transhipment ports [4]. The following part of the paper is structured into three sections. Section 2 specifies the steps of the procedure that allows estimation of variables connected to containerized freight demand. Section 3 presents the results of the partial application of the procedure to the Mediterranean area. Section 4 reports the future work.
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2 Proposed procedure
The proposed procedure consists of different steps as presented in this section. Step 0: initial vector of demand variables Inputs are represented by a set of vectors of available data related to containerized maritime freight demand, {dt,s , referring to a set of time periods, {t}, and geographical areas, {s}. Each vector, dt,s, is composed as follows: dt,s = [n t,s m t,s ft,s e t,s ]T where n t,s = ps nt,p, throughput of geographical area s at time period t, obtained as the sum of throughput of each container port p belonging to the geographical area at time period t, nt,p; mt,s = ps mt,p, transhipment of geographical area s at time period t, obtained as the sum of transhipment of each container port p belonging to the geographical area at time period t, mt,p (transhipment is an aliquot of throughput, nt,s mt,s); ft,s = o ft,o-s + d ft,s-d, OD flow of geographical area s at time period t, obtained adding two terms: the sum over all geographical areas of origin, o, of OD flow between o and s, o ft,o-s; and the sum over all geographical areas of destination, d, of OD flow between s and d, d ft,s-d; et,s = ps et,p, empty containers in geographical area s at time period t, obtained as the sum of empty containers, as aliquot of throughput (and/or) transhipment, handled in each port p belonging to the geographical area at time period t, et,p. One or more values of the above variables, aggregated for geographical area s, may be unknown for the analyst, while disaggregated data at port level are generally not easily provided by terminal operators due to their direct financial and commercial implications. Step 1: study area and reference time The procedure starts defining the study area (spatial domain), s*, and reference period (time domain), t*. According to the nature of the analysis, which may be ex-post or ex-ante, t* may be respectively an historical or a future reference time period. The space-time domain (s*, t*) has the following relationships with the available sets {s} and {t}: the study area, s*, may be coincident with, be part of, or partially overlapping with one or more available geographical areas belonging to the set {s} s* s or s* s or s* s 0, s {s} the reference period, t*, should belong to (or not be too distant from the extreme values, ti and tk, of) the set, {t}, in order to allow estimation of direct

and cross elasticities connected to finite variations of the above variables by means of the available data t* t or t* t or t* ti tk or t* t 0, t, ti, tk {t} Step 2: estimation of fitting parameters A set of models then allows to perform spatial and temporal fitting operations of the heterogeneous available input data to the given study area, s*, and reference period, t*. The set of models may be grouped into two classes: temporal fitting models, which allow to fit the values of the demand variables belonging to the initial vector, xt,s dt,s, to the reference time period t*, xt*,s: ctt*,x ( ) for x=n, m, f, e spatial fitting models, which allow to fit the values of the demand variables belonging to the initial vector, xt,s dt,s, to the study area s*, xt,s*: css*,x ( ) for x=n, m, f, e The models allow two vectors of parameters to be obtained: vector of temporal fitting parameters ct* = [ct*,n ct*,m ct*,f ct*,e]T vector of spatial fitting parameters cs* = [cs*,n cs*,m cs*,f cs*,e]T Step 3: final vector of demand variables The two above vectors feed a general model, together with the set of available input data, {dt,s}, from which we can obtain as output a vector, dt*,s*, of variables of containerized maritime freight demand for the given study area, s*, and reference period, t*: dt*,s* = d (ct*, cs*, {dt,s}) where: dt*,s* = [nt*,s* mt*,s* ft*,s* et*,s*]T; d=[n( ) m( ) f( ) e( )] T is the vector of functions related to each variable of containerized maritime freight demand. Step 4: ratios between demand variables Once vector dt*,s* is estimated, it is possible to specify and calibrate models to express the mutual relationships among the variables of the above vector for the given study area, s*, and reference year, t* (which are omitted in the notation): cn,m( ), throughput - transhipment model; cn,f( ), throughput - OD flow model; cn,e( ), throughput - empties model; cm,e( ), transhipment - transhipped empties model. Due to the lack of data concerning one or more components of the initial vector of demand variables, dt,s, Step 4 can be applied before Step 3; this means
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that one or more components of vector, dt*,s*, can be estimated after estimating the ratio between two variables, whose aggregate values referred to the spacetime domain (s*,t*) are known.
3 Application in the Mediterranean area

The procedure is applied to obtain an aggregate estimation of the demand variables of containerized maritime freight market at 2006 and 2015 for the Mediterranean area. This section presents the results of the partial application of the procedure: classification of available input data according to geographical areas and years; definition of the study area and reference period of time (year); estimation of variables of throughput and transhipment. 3.1 Initial vector of demand, study area and reference period of time Input data are represented by values of throughput, transhipment, OD flows and empties with heterogeneous time references, t, and geographical areas, s, which are components of vectors belonging to the set, {dt,s}. They are made available from international research institutions working in the field, such as Ocean Shipping Consultants Ltd [57], Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd [811], United Nations [12], Informa Business [13], reports from research projects [1416], books [17, 18] and papers [1921]. Available data are grouped into different spatial scales (Tab. 1): aggregate worldwide, aggregate euro-mediterranean (EU-Med), euro-mediterranean countries and ports; and time periods: historical or forecasted. A detailed description of available data are presented in [22]. Table 1:
[TEUs] Throughput
Initial vector of demand variables.

International Worlwide EU-Med Port H F H F A F EU-Med Country Port H F H F
x Non-OD Transhipment x Empties x OD Flow x
x x x --
x x -x
x x ---
x x x --
-----
x x ---
x ----
x x -*
-----
H, Historical; F, Forecasted; * available data for Gioia Tauro, Cagliari and Taranto; -- partially or completely unavailable.
The study area consists of countries facing the Mediterranean Sea, which may be considered as a homogeneous area (s*=M, Mediterranean area). It comprises: Northern Mediterranean (NM) countries, including Spain, France, Italy, Malta, Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, Syria, Lebanon and Israel; Southern Mediterranean (SM) countries, including Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt.

The following countries (or parts of) were excluded from the study area: Atlantic (A) countries, facing the Atlantic such as Portugal, north-western Spain, Atlantic France, Canaries, Azores and Madeira; Black Sea (B) countries, facing the Black Sea such as Bulgaria, Romania, western Russia, Georgia. The aim of the application is to estimate the variables of containerized maritime freight demand at 2006 and 2015, on the basis of scenarios defined before and after the global economic crisis of 2008-2010. Therefore, two reference years are defined: t*= 2006 and 2015; considering the trajectories as expected before, 2015-b, and after the crisis, 2015-a.
3.2 Throughput estimation: fitting parameters The section presents the set of operations for the estimation of temporal and spatial fitting parameters and of throughput variable at 2006 and forecast at 2015 at the Mediterranean scale. Data at 2006 Available data comprise the throughput values of Northern Mediterranean countries, including Atlantic countries ([8], [9]), n04,NM =31.53 mTEUs. As the above value includes throughput related to countries facing the Atlantic, their throughput has to be estimated. The available throughput value for the above countries refers to 2004. Application of the temporal fitting model to 2006 provides the calibrated parameter, c06,m, as the average growth rate per year of throughput in the period 2000-2004. Application of the spatial fitting model allows the calibration of the parameter, cA,m, which is the aliquot of Atlantic countries throughput to subtract from the value of 31.53 mTEUs. The throughput of Southern Mediterranean countries at 2006 is then estimated starting from the available throughput at 2004 for Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Israel, Libya and Syria (data refer to this aggregation of countries), n04,SM=3.72 mTEUs. Application of the temporal fitting model to 2006 allows calibration of the parameter, c06,m, as the average growth rate per year of throughput in the period 2000-2004, and execution of the temporal fitting for the above countries. By using calibrated temporal and spatial fitting parameters we can estimate the throughput in the Mediterranean area at 2006, n06,M=34.0 mTEUs. Scenarios at 2015 Throughput forecasts at 2015 for the Mediterranean area were obtained considering the following scenarios: first case: scenario defined before the crisis according to [5]; second case: scenario defined before the crisis according to [8, 9]; third case: scenario defined after the crisis [11]. In the first case, the available data consist of the throughput values in the Mediterranean area (including Atlantic and Black Sea countries) at 2015 before
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the crisis in a baseline scenario (I), n15,b-I,M=91.64 mTEUs, and in a low one (II), n15,b-II,M=70.15 mTEUs. Baseline and low scenarios depend on assumptions regarding worldwide economic growth, which may be respectively more or less accentuated (see [5]). It is necessary to estimate the values of throughput related to Atlantic and Black Sea countries and subtract them from the above starting values. Availability of throughput forecasts at 2015 in baseline and low scenarios allow the calibration of spatial fitting parameters for the Atlantic countries. By using the calibrated spatial fitting parameters we can estimate throughput in the Mediterranean area at 2015 before the crisis for the low scenario, n15b-lI,M=60.0 mTEUs. In the second case, the available data comprise the throughput of Northern Mediterranean countries, except for Syria, Lebanon and Israel, at 2013 (see [9]), n13b,NM= 46.6 mTEUs. Application of the temporal fitting model to 2015 allows the calibration of parameter, c15b,m, as the average growth rate per year of throughput in the period 2008-2013, obtaining a value of throughput, n15b,NM= 50.9 mTEUs. As Atlantic countries are included, the calibrated spatial fitting parameters respectively in the baseline and low scenarios allow us to estimate the aliquot of throughput related to these countries to subtract from n15b,NM. Moreover, the spatial fitting parameters related to Syria, Lebanon and Israel (S) countries respectively in the baseline and low scenarios are calibrated in order to estimate the aliquot of throughput related to these countries to add to n15b,NM. The throughput of Southern Mediterranean countries at 2015 before the crisis in the baseline, n15b-I,SM=19.44 mTEUs, and in the low scenario, n15b-lI,SM=16.26 mTEUs is forecasted in the same way as for 2006. The calibrated spatial fitting parameters allows, in this case, estimation of throughput in the Mediterranean area at 2015 before the crisis, n15b,M=60.0 mTEUs. In the third case, the available data is the throughput of Northern Mediterranean countries at 2014 after the crisis (see [11]), n14a,NM= 36.76 mTEUs. Application of the temporal fitting model to 2015 provides the calibrated parameter, c15,m, as the average growth rate per year of throughput during the period 2009-2015. Therefore, the forecasted value of throughput at 2015 after the crisis can be estimated, n15a,NM= 38.4 mTEUs, which is lower than the corresponding value before the crisis. The above reduction is used to estimate the throughput at 2015 after the crisis of Atlantic countries and subtract it from the value of 38.4 mTEUs. The same considerations drive the estimation of throughput of Southern Mediterranean countries at 2015 after the crisis in the baseline scenario, n15a-I,NM= 14.65 mTEUs, and in the low one, n15a-lI,NM= 12.28 mTEUs. By using the calibrated spatial and temporal fitting parameters we can estimate throughput in the Mediterranean area at 2015 after the crisis, n15a,M= 46.0 mTEUs. 3.3 Transhipment estimation As there is a current lack of data on the transhipment variable, the procedure cannot be applied according to the sequence of steps described in section 3.2, as

with the variable of throughput. Therefore, transhipment values, m06,M and m15,M, are estimated by means of the model, cm,n( ), inverting the sequence of steps three and four of the procedure. Data at 2006 Available data concerns historical values of ratios between transhipment and throughput. Ratios on a period from 2005 to 2008 in Northern Mediterranean countries, including Atlantic Sea countries, are presented in [9]; values are stable and their average value is 0.43. Ratios between 1995 and 2015 in the Mediterranean area (Fig. 1) are provided by [6, 7]: average value between 2005 and 2008 is 0.365, which is lower than the previous one. We refer to the more complete data from [6, 7], which presents both historical and forecasted ones. Application of the model, cm,n() yields a ratio at 2006 of cm,n=0.365.
45,0 40,0 35,0

[%]
30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
OSC base 1: before-crisis Figure OSC base after-crisis
Figure 2:
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Figure 3:
year Figure 4:
Figure 1:
Historical and forecasted ratios between transhipment and throughput in the Mediterranean area: years 19952015 (source: [6, 7]).
Data at 2015 According to [6, 7], the forecasted ratio between transhipment and throughput before the crisis increases from 37.2% at 2007 to 42.4% at 2015, while after the crisis the ratio reaches 40.0% at 2008 and remain stable around this value until 2015 (see Fig. 1). Application of the model, cm,n( ), with data at 2015 yields, before the crisis, ratios of cm,n=0.42, and, after the crisis, of cm,n=0.40. 3.4 Preliminary results and future work The preliminary application of the procedure at Mediterranean scale (s*=M) allowed estimating throughput and transhipment variables at 2006 and 2015 before the crisis and after the crisis (t*=2006, 2015-b, 2015-a). The results are presented in table 2. The values of transhipment variable for the Mediterranean
2015
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area at 2006 and 2015 are estimated by means of the transhipment-throughput ratios, cm,n, obtained in section 3.3. At this stage of the application, the emptythroughput ratios, ce,n, for the Mediterranean area at 2006 and 2015 are assumed equal to the ones estimated at worldwide level: 0.21 at t*=2006; 0.21 at t*=2015b and 0.23 at t*=2015-a (see [12]). Table 2: Variables of throughput, transhipment and empties in the Mediterranean area (2006 and 2015).
t*=2006 [mTEUs] n06,M 34.0 cn,m 0.36 m06,M 12.4 ce,n 0.21 e06,M 7.1 t*=2015-b [mTEUs] n15b,M 60.0 0.42 m15b,M 25.5 0.21 e15b,M 13.8 t*=2015-a [mTEUs]s n15a,M 46.0 0.40 m15a,M 18.4 0.23 e15a,M 10.6
Throughput Transhipment Empties
b, before the crisis, a, after the crisis.
The paper proposes a procedure for the estimation of demand variables of the containerized maritime freight market, with the aim to link the variables connected to the use of port infrastructures with the trade-related ones. The partial results of the application of the procedure at the Mediterranean area at 2006 and 2015 concern the variables of throughput and transhipment. Future work will pursue two different lines: the first concerns the application of the procedure to the OD flow variable in order to estimate container flows between the Mediterranean area and other geographical areas of the rest of the world; the second concerns the estimation of demand variables at worldwide level in order to evaluate the role of the Mediterranean area in the worldwide containerized maritime freight market. Research perspectives concern the formulation of a unified model to simultaneously estimate temporal and spatial fitting parameters from available input data [23, 24].
References
[1] Bayliss B., The Measurement of Supply and Demand in Freight Transport. Avebury, Aldershot, England, 1988. [2] Russo F. & Assumma V., Container maritime transport at international scale: a model to simulate the demand flow in the Mediterranean basin. Proc. of Sustainable Development and Planning V, Brebbia C. A. (ed.), WIT Press, Southampton, Boston, 2011. ISBN 978-1-84564-544-1. [3] Russo F., Chil G. & Iann D., Container maritime transport at international scale: a model choice of service and hub port. Proc. of Sustainable Development and Planning V, Brebbia C. A. (ed.), WIT Press, Southampton, Boston, 2011. ISBN 978-1-84564-544-1. [4] Russo F. & Rindone C., Container maritime transport at international scale: Data Envelopment Analysis for transhipment ports. Proc. of Sustainable

Development and Planning V, Brebbia C. A. (ed.), WIT Press, Southampton, Boston, 2011. ISBN 978-1-84564-544-1. Ocean Shipping Consultant Ltd, The European & Mediterranean container port markets to 2015. United Kingdom, 2006. Ocean Shipping Consultant Ltd, Container Port Strategy. United Kingdom, 2007. Ocean Shipping Consultant Ltd, Container Terminal Management: a postcrisis perspective. United Kingdom, 2010. Drewry Shipping Consultant Ltd, Annual Review of Global Container Terminal Operators 2008. United Kingdom, 2008. Drewry Shipping Consultant Ltd, Annual Container Market Review and Forecast 2008-09. United Kingdom, 2008. Drewry Shipping Consultant Ltd, Annual Review of Global Container Terminal Operators 2008: Addendum. United Kingdom, 2009. Drewry Shipping Consultant Ltd, Container Forecaster 3Q09. United Kingdom, 2009. United Nations, Regional shipping and port development. Container traffic forecast 2007 update. Economic and social commission for Asia and the Pacific. New York, 2007. Informa Business, Containerisation International Yearbook 2009. United Kingdom, 2008. Crudo C., I flussi di merci nel porto di Gioia Tauro. Technical Report (in Italian). OSMETE Research project, 2006. FREEMED project, Transport demand analysis. New mobility scenarios in the FREE Trade Zone in the MEDiterranean basin. Deliverable 3, Interreg III B, Archimed, 2008. FREEMED project, Decision support system implementation. New mobility scenarios in the FREE Trade Zone in the MEDiterranean basin. Deliverable 3, Interreg III B, Archimed, 2008. Coronado D., Acosta M., del Mar Cerban M. & del Pilar Lpez M. (eds.) Economic Impact of the Container Traffic at the Port of Algeciras Bay. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 2006. Meersman H., Van de Voorde E. & Vanelslander T., (eds.). Future Challenges for the Port and Shipping Sector. INFORMA, London, 2009. Meersman H. & van de Voorde E., The relationship between economic activity and freight transport. In Recent developments in transport modelling: lessons for the freight sector. Bingley, Emerald, 2008. Meersman H. & van de Voorde E., Port management, operation and competition: a focus on North Europe. In The handbook of maritime economics and business. London, 2010. Medda F. & Carbonaro G., Growth of Container Seaborne Traffic in the Mediterranean Basin: Outlook and Policy Implications for Port Development. Transport Reviews, 27: 5, Routledge, London, pp. 573-587, 2007.
[5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21]
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[22] Russo F., Gattuso D., Musolino G. & Ferraro G., Domanda ed offerta nei porti container: fonti di riferimento e caratteristiche dei porti del Mediterraneo centrale. In I porti container italiani nel sistema EuroMediterraneo: dati di riferimento e stato dellarte su modelli e metodi per lanalisi di domanda e offerta. F. Russo (ed), Franco Angeli, Milan, pp. 7190, 2010. [23] Russo F. & Vitetta A., Risk evaluation in a transportation system. In International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning. Volume 1, Issue 2, 2006, Pages 170-191, 2006. [24] Russo F. & Vitetta A., Reverse assignment: calibrating link cost functions and updating demand from traffic counts and time measurements. In Inverse Problems in Science and Engineering, 2011, forthcoming.
809
Container maritime transport on an international scale: a model to simulate the demand flow in the Mediterranean basin
F. Russo & V. Assumma
Universit degli Studi Mediterranea di Reggio Calabria DIMET Dipartimento di Informatica, Matematica, Elettronica e Trasporti, Italy
Abstract
This paper presents a model to simulate the freight demand flow of containers on an international scale, considering as a reference area the Mediterranean basin. The models specified and calibrated represent a development of models used in the literature and they are applied to assess the effects of modifications on the configuration of the national transport system. The modifications correspond to different exogenous scenarios, relative to national and international socioeconomic and demographic variables. Some results emerge from the analysis of the calibrated models, in particular concerning the importance of the different maritime services for import and export. Keywords: freight, international mobility, container.
1 Introduction
The objective of this paper is the development of models to simulate the freight demand flow in the Mediterranean basin exchanged by containers. The models in literature are of interregional type or just crossborder [1], few papers treat transport models on an international level. In particular, there are no transport models involving industrialized countries and developing countries. A detailed classification of international freight transportation models is reported in [2]. This work is part of a two-year research project financed by the Italian Ministry of University and Research, whose general objective is to define guidelines for the

competitiveness of the Italian transhipment ports of Gioia Tauro, Cagliari and Taranto in the euro-Mediterranean context. In the complete system of analysis the starting model is the one regarding the development, and the application to the Mediterranean area, of aggregate procedures [3] to estimate the demand variables of container maritime transport. The second is the model presented in this paper. The third is the model regarding the choice of maritime container services and ports [4]. Finally a specific paper [5] presents method to evaluate the efficiency of container transhipment ports that operate in the same region. A general review on national transport models is reported in [6]. From the literature it emerges that only the agriculture aspect of trade is modeled in the Mediterranean area. In the context of studies conducted by the Femise Research Programme, the MEDINA AGRO I [7] aims to analyze the effects of the creation of the Euromediterranean Free Trade Zone in agriculture. The determinants of the demand for general maritime import and export are analyzed only for one specific country: Spain [8]. General work related to different aspects of a single port in the Spanish and Mediterranean context have been studied in [9]. Specific aspects related to the use of the models in a design procedure are analyzed with emphasis on road network [10], similar evolution could be studied for maritime network. In this paper is reported a short description of the study area, the Mediterranean basin (section 2), including demand and supply database. In section 3 is reported the current demand of freight exchanged in the Mediterranean basin and in section 4 are reported models and criteria used for their specification, calibration and validation. In section 5 are presented the calibrated coefficients. Some results that emerge from the analysis of the calibrated models are reported in section 6.
2 Study area and database

To analyze the freight flow by container, in the Mediterranean basin, considering only the transport by ship, four zones have been defined: two zones inside Mediterranean basin and two zones outside Mediterranean basin. The zones inside Mediterranean basin are: North-Med (North): Italy, France, Spain and Greece; South-Med (South): Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Malta, Libya, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey, Cyprus, Palestine. North is composed of countries with strong similarities in terms of production capacity and manufacturing demands; South is composed of countries with low production capacity and manufacturing demands among the Mediterranean basin. In this context, Malta and Cyprus, while politically belonging to the North, were inserted in South for their production capacity and manufacturing demands. The zones outside Mediterranean basin are: European Union excluded North (EU19): Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg,
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Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, United Kingdom, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Hungary; World excluded EU19, South and North. Data for models calibration were obtained from different sources: World Development Indicator (www.worldbank.org); Italian National Institute for Foreign Trade (www.ice.gov.it); Italian National Institute of Statistics (www.istat.it). Some social-economic variables were obtained (year 2006) from the World Development Indicator [11]: Gross domestic product (US$); Industry value added (US$); Agriculture value added (US$); Total population; Unemployment (% of total labour force); Inflation (%); Energy production (kg oil equivalents); Energy use (kg oil equivalents); Electricity production (kwh); Electric power consumption (kwh per capita). National Institute for Foreign Trade [12] provided aggregate and disaggregate data (year 2006) regarding: value of freight (number of container) exchanged between the countries in our study area.
3 Demand structure
In order to reproduce the current demand of freight exchanged by sea in the Mediterranean basin in 2006 it is necessary to analyze the connections O/D. The current demand of freight exchanged was fully represented by 2006; given the difficulty to finding data for all the countries in our zones, the database could be updated and completed, and the work can move ahead. Today there is no single database with all the statistics of freight exchanged in the Mediterranean basin, and the existing data, elaborated from various sources, are often conflicting. Although the current demand of freight exchanged in the Mediterranean basin was fully represented, it is not necessary to analyze all the connections in O/D matrix. The following sections report a description of simulated freight demand flows and not simulated freight demand flows. 3.1 Simulated demand container flows In order to analyze freight demand flows exported in the Mediterranean basin (fig. 1), it is useful to define the following aggregated demand flows: freight exported from North to South; freight exported from North to World excluded EU19, South and North;

freight exported from South to North; freight exported from South to EU19; freight exported from South to World excluded EU19, South and North. Similarly to analyze freight demand flows imported in the Mediterranean basin (fig. 1), it is useful to define the following aggregated demand flows: freight imported to South from EU19; freight imported to North from World excluded EU19, South and North; freight imported to South from World excluded EU19, South and North.
O/D North South EU19 World EU19 North South North South EU19 World EU19 North South
Figure 1:
O/D matrix.
3.2 Not simulated demand container flows Some connections in O/D matrix are not simulated (oblique line in fig. 1) because there are only little amounts of freight exchanged by sea respect to land: amounts of freight exported from North to North; amounts of freight exported from South to South. The amounts of freight exported by sea from North to North had an increased by means of European policies that support the start-up of services by motorway of the sea like Marco Polo. But this effect is more prevalent in the years after 2006, which is the base year for the simulation. Some O/D connections are not simulated (cross line in fig. 1) because freight is almost exclusively exchanged by land: freight imported to North from EU19; freight exported from North to EU19. Some O/D connections are not simulated (white box in fig. 1) because it is assumed that no ports of Mediterranean basin are used: freight exported from EU19 to EU19;
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freight exported from EU19 to World excluded EU19, South and North; freight exported from World excluded EU19, South and North to EU19. One connection, in O/D matrix, is not simulated (grating in fig. 1) because the choice of a port hub in Mediterranean basin depends only by business strategies of major carriers and not by economic conditions of countries (work in progress on these themes): freight exported from World excluded EU19, South and North to World excluded EU19, South and North. Fig. 1 reports the O/D matrix of the freight demand flows exchanged by sea and that have at least one extreme in a port of the Mediterranean basin.
4 Specification of models
Two specifications of demand model O/D are proposed: exportation model; importation model. The exportation (importation) model estimates the amount of freight exported (imported) from a country. It is used the regression model by category, that is a specification of the descriptive models. The model is specified and calibrated for all the connection (black) in O/D matrix in fig. 1. The model, in its higher disaggregated form, can be written as:
y ij w x jw k xik z
w k
(1)
where, considering as an example the amounts of container freight exported from North to South: i is a country of North that exports toward country j of South a number of container yij; xik is the generic attribute k of country i; xjw is the generic attribute w of country j; w and k are model coefficients to be estimated; z is a random variable that represents the error. Given the difficulty finding disaggregated data (attributes) for all the countries in the zones and container flows on all the connections in O/D matrix, it is necessary to specify the model (1) in other way. We do not consider, as observed value, the single yij country to country container flows, but the value:
YiJ y ij
jJ
(2)
In the case of container freight exported from North to South, previously exemplificated, we have:

YiSouth
jSouth
ij
If we consider the models (1) and (2), wxJw has a constant value for all the YiJ and must be ignored in the calibration. For the first two rows in O/D matrix in fig. 1 the model is:
YiJ k xik z
k
Let us suppose in a compact way that X i k xik the model well be write
k
as:
YiJ X i z
(3)
where:
YiJ = dependent or explicative variable; in our case it is the export of freight, in container, from a country i toward an aggregate region of country J; Xi = independent or explicative variable in a vector form; in our case they are the social-economic variables for the country i; = coefficients vector to be estimated; the method used, least squares, means that the overall solution minimizes the sum of the squares of the errors made in solving every single equation; i = 1,,n with n = total number of observations (countries); J = considered zone or aggregate region of country. Similarly to analyze demand of freight imported in the Mediterranean basin, if we consider (1) and (2) the model is:
YIj yij
iI
The model calibrated is:

YIj w x jw z
w
that is:
Y Ij X j z
(4)
For the third and fourth rows in O/D matrix in fig. 1 the model is the (4).
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5 Calibrations
Several model specifications were carried out, with progressive additions of different sets of social-economic attributes. It is possible to identify two main types of specification and calibration. The first type is operational (OP), because attributes are generally available in the literature, allowing us to recalibrate the model for subsequent years. These attributes usually are the basis of the programs of the various countries (finance laws) because are the foundations for the forecast of Central Banks. The second type is explanatory (ES) because attributes have not a simple availability in the literature, but they explain the complexity of the model. The OP type of models has the following attributes. Gross Domestic Product, GDP (US$): it is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in current U.S. dollars. Dollar figures for GDP are converted from domestic currencies using single year official exchange rates. Industry Value Added, IVA (US$): it comprises value added in mining, manufacturing (also reported as a separate subgroup), construction, electricity, water, and gas. Value added is the net output of a sector after adding up all outputs and subtracting intermediate inputs. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or depletion and degradation of natural resources. Agriculture Value Added, AVA (US$): it includes forestry, hunting, and fishing, as well as cultivation of crops and livestock production. Value added is the net output of a sector after adding up all outputs and subtracting intermediate inputs. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or depletion and degradation of natural resources. Total Population, TP: it is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship except for refugees not permanently settled in the country of asylum, who are generally considered part of the population of their country of origin. The values shown are midyear estimates. The ES type of models has the following attributes. Energy Production, EnP (kg oil equivalents): it refers to forms of primary energy--petroleum (crude oil, natural gas liquids, and oil from nonconventional sources), natural gas, solid fuels (coal, lignite, and other derived fuels), and combustible renewables and waste--and primary electricity, all converted into oil equivalents. Energy Use, EnU (kg oil equivalents): it refers to use of primary energy before transformation to other end-use fuels, which is equal to indigenous production plus imports and stock changes, minus exports

and fuels supplied to ships and aircraft engaged in international transport. Electricity Production, ElP (kwh): it is measured at the terminals of all alternator sets in a station. In addition to hydropower, coal, oil, gas, and nuclear power generation, it covers generation by geothermal, solar, wind, and tide and wave energy, as well as that from combustible renewables and waste. Production includes the output of electricity plants that are designed to produce electricity only as well as that of combined heat and power plants. Electric Power Consumption, ElPC (kwh per capita): it measures the production of power plants and combined heat and power plants less transmission, distribution, and transformation losses and own use by heat and power plants. For example to analyze amounts of freight container exported from North to South it is used the model (3) in the simpler form with just one attribute:
YiJ
jSouth
ij
GDPi
yij = export of freight, in container, from country i of North toward country j of South; YiJ = export of freight, in container, from country i of North toward all the country j of South; GDPi = Gross Domestic Product (US$) of country i; = model coefficient to be estimated; i = 1,,North where North = country of North; j = 1,,South where South = country of South. In tab. 1 are the coefficients of the operational model specified with only variable Gross Domestic Product for exportation model from North to South and exportation model from South to North, and coefficients w of an explicative model.
where:
6 Preliminary conclusions
Some results emerge from the analysis of the calibrated models. In particular in operational exportation model the coefficient of variable Gross Domestic Product is four times greater for Southern countries than for Northern countries; but the same coefficient are only a few times greater in explanatory exportation model. The current demand of fright exchanged in the Mediterranean basin was fully represented, making particular reference to the Euromediterranean Free Trade Zone and to trade with the rest of the world. Given the difficulty finding data for all the countries in our study area, the database could be updated and completed. Today there is no single database with all the statistics of freight exchanged in
817
the Mediterranean basin, and the existing data, elaborated from various sources, are often conflicting. Table 1:
Attribute GDP.
t-student
Exportation model from North to South and from South to North.

Unit US$*106 US$*106 Kgoe Kgoe Kwh p.c.
0,6697
North to South OP ES 0,2945 0,9115

2,46
South to North OP ES 1,1454 1,0708

4,73 4,10
AVA.
t-student
-3,26*10-8
-12,92
8,06
EnP
t-student
-7,4633
-13,26
0,5117
0,83
EnU
t-student
-3,7670
-3,19
ElPC.
t-student Rho2
46,1577
83,20 1 0,6705 0,6922
References
[1] Regan A. C. & Garrido P. A. (ed.) Modeling Freight Demand and Shipper Behaviour: State of the Art, Future Directions. Preprint IATBR, Sydney, Australia, 2000. [2] Russo F., Assumma V., Chil G. & Iann, D., Stato dell'arte su modelli per la previsione dei flussi di domanda merci nei porti container hub. in Russo F. (ed.) I porti container italiani nel sistema euro-mediterraneo. Franco Angeli, Milano, 2010, ISBN 978-88-568-2482-7. [3] Russo F. & Musolino G. Container maritime transport at international scale: a procedure for aggregate estimation of demand variables. Proc. of Sustainable Development and Planning V. Brebbia C. A. (ed.), WIT Press, Southampton, Boston, 2011. ISBN 978-1-84564-544-1. [4] Russo F., Chil G. & Iann D. Container maritime transport at international scale: a model choice of service and hub port. Proc. of Sustainable Development and Planning V. Brebbia C. A. (ed.), WIT Press, Southampton, Boston, 2011. ISBN 978-1-84564-544-1. [5] Russo F. & Rindone C. Container maritime transport at international scale: Data Envelopment Analysis for transhipment ports. Proc. of Sustainable Development and Planning V. Brebbia C. A. (ed.), WIT Press, Southampton, Boston, 2011. ISBN 978-1-84564-544-1. [6] Lundquist L. & Mattsson L.G. National transport models: recent developments and prospects. Springer, 2001 [7] Lorca Corrons A. Limpact de la libralization commerciale EuropeMditeranenne dans les changes agricoles. Femise Research Programme, Paris, 2000 [8] Coto-Milln P., Banos-Pino J. & Villaverde Castro J. Determinants of the demand for maritime imports and exports. Transp. Res., vol. 41/E, 2005, pp. 357-372

[9] Coronado D., Acosta M., del Mar Cerban M. & del Pilar Lpez M. (eds.) Economic Impact of the Container Traffic at the Port of Algeciras Bay. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 2006. [10] Russo F. & Vitetta, A. A topological method to choose optimal solutions after solving the multi-criteria urban road network design problem. Transportation, Volume 33, Issue 4, July 2006, Pages 347-370. [11] World Bank Group, World Development Indicators, 2006. [12] ICE, www.ice.it, National Italian Institute for Foreign Trade, 2006.
819
Container maritime transport on an international scale: a choice model of service and hub port
F. Russo, G. Chil & D. Iann
Abstract
In this work we present a model to simulate container service of maritime transport on an international scale, considering the alternatives hub and spoke and point-to-point. Given the alternative hub and spoke, the choice of hub port is simulated. Several model specifications are proposed. An experimentation according to the independency of the two choices, maritime service and hub port, is carried out for the Mediterranean basin. Keywords: freight transport, service choice, international scale.
1 Introduction
On an international and, especially, an intercontinental scale, freight transport via sea dominates other transport modes, as experimentally highlighted. While on an intracontinental scale, freight transport via railway is significant; on an intercontinental scale, it is not competitive. Therefore, on an intercontinental scale it is important to simulate the joint choice of transport mode/service and not only the choice of transport mode. In most cases, the choices of container service and hub port (for transhipment service) are supposed to be independent and then probability choices are simulated according to a factorial approach. Positive results obtained according to this hypothesis shows how good this method is, even if, in order to consider the interaction between the two levels of choices, an approach simulating jointly mode/service and hub port could further improve the results.

In this work a model simulating the container maritime transport service on an international scale is proposed, considering the alternatives, hub and spoke and point-to-point. Once the alternative hub and spoke is given, the choice of hub port is simulated. The work is part of a two-year research project financed by the Italian Ministry of University and Research, whose general objective is to define guidelines for the competitiveness of the Italian transhipment ports of Gioia Tauro, Cagliari and Taranto in the euro-Mediterranean context. Other specific lines of research concern the development, and the application to the Mediterranean area, of aggregate procedures [1] and models [2] to estimate the demand variables of container maritime transport, and of methods to evaluate the efficiency of container transhipment ports [3]. In section 2, a synthetic state of the art related to the maritime transport service choice models on an international scale is proposed; in section 3, the proposed model is specified; in sections 4 and 5, model calibrations for the two levels of choice obtained from an experimentation in the Mediterranean basin are reported; finally, in section 6, main conclusions and future objectives are presented.
2 State of the arte on freight modal choice model on an international scale

The displacements on an international scale had a significant growth in the last two decades, due to large multinationals, which, in order to take advantage of raw materials and cheap labour, have preferred to locate manufacturing plants at a considerable distance from the places of consumption. Haralambides and Veenstra [4] propose three approaches to simulate freight demand on an international scale: the first approach follows the standard theory of international trade [5] which allows the indirect inclusion of transportation costs and it is based on the Ricardian principle of competitive advantage [6]; the second approach relies on an aggregate cost function for a given industrial sector, from which a demand function for shipping is derived [7]; the third approach is based on spatial interaction models to estimate trade flows [810]: the outgoing flows from the origin zone divide up the destination zones proportionately inversely with distance. In the first approach, a more direct relationship between the international movement of freight and transportation costs is offered by Bougheas et al. [11]. The authors analyze the impact of infrastructure in a Ricardian model of bilateral trade which includes the transport cost: in the model, the infrastructure is a technology that reduces the cost (the authors assume that transport costs are inversely proportional to the level of infrastructure). Input-output models are also used for freight transport demand estimation, both on interregional and international levels, as an extension of the third
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approach. These models are a generalization of the model proposed by Isard [12] and subsequently developed for freight transport demand [13]. In order to simulate trade between different zones, a Multi-Regional Input Output model (MRIO) with constant coefficients could be used. Regarding transport mode choice, our literature survey highlighted the absence of models that simulate the transport mode/service and the path choices on an international scale, since, in most cases, models are referred to regional areas [14]. Coto-Millan et al. [15], for example, propose a theoretical model explaining the behaviour of imports and exports of goods by ship for a particular economy, such as the Spanish one. On this scale, the maritime transport, as first mentioned, is predominant in comparison with the other modal choice alternatives. As a result, it is necessary to simulate the choice of service, inside the maritime transport mode, with respect to modal choice, generally considered on the other territorial scales. A mode-service choice model on a euro-Mediterranean scale is proposed by Russo and Assumma [2, 16]. The model specifies four choice alternatives: container ship, solid bulk ship, liquid bulk ship and roll on roll off ship. Monetary cost and travel time are introduced as attributes of the level of service for each mode-service. Among the level of service attributes, the specific attributes of alternative (ASA) or modal preference can be included, taking into account the characteristics of each mode not evaluated quantitatively. Concerning maritime services, the market offers two different services: pointto-point and transhipment. The choice of transhipment service implies the identification of the hub port. A model of hub port choice is proposed by Park and Lim [17]. They analyse the factors causing an increase of container handling in Busan port. Veldman and Buckmann [18] analyse the competitiveness among container ports in Northern Europe. A detailed state of the art is reported in Russo et al. [19, 20].
3 Specification of the choice model of service-mode and hub port

In this work a choice model of container service of maritime transport on an international scale is proposed, between the alternatives hub and spoke and point-to-point, and, given the hub and spoke alternative, of the hub port. These models are downstream of the freight demand models at international scale such as those proposed in Russo and Assumma [2, 16]. For the generic alternative of joint choice m a function of generalized utility Um=f(Um,serv,Um,hub) is proposed; the function includes two parts: Um,serv, related to the attributes of main transport service m,serv; Um,hub, related to the attributes of hub port, for main transport service hub and spoke, equal to zero for main transport service point-to-point.

This function can be specified considering the different relation among the level of choice (hierarchical or factorial) and different hypothesis on random residual distributions. They generate models classified into two main classes: models characterized by choice probabilities expressed in closed forms (e.g. generalized extreme value models, GEV, and their specifications Multinomial Logit and Nested Logit); models characterized by simulated probability choice (e.g. Probit and Mixed Logit models). In this work the choice model is specified supposing that service choice and hub port are independent and then user choice process could be specified according to a factorial approach. We also assume that there is independence in the choice of port for each path o/d travelled by the same ship around the world. A different assumption can regard the sequential choice in respect to previous decisions [21, 22]. Formally, utility function of generic alternative m,hub is expressed as: U m,hub= Vm,hub+m,hub=Vm,hubm,serv m,hub/m,serv with Vm,hub part of systematic utility related to the hub port choice; m,serv part of random residuals related to group m,serv; m,serv/hub part of random residuals related to hub port. If we consider the sequential approach [21, 22] the utility function will be:
U m,hub (t)= Vm,hub(t)/m,hub(t-1)+m,hub(t)= Vm,hub(t)/m,hub(t-1) m,serv(t) m,hub(t)/m,hub (t-1)

m,hub(t)/m,serv(t)
where Vm,hub(t)/m,hub(t-1)Vhub(t)=f (Vm,serv(t),Vhub(t-1)) shows the relation between hub port choice in time t respect to the previous choice in time t-1; m,hub(t)/m,hub (t-1) part of random residuals related to dependence between hub port choice in time t and t-1; m,hub(t)/m,serv(t). part of random residuals related to dependence between hub port choice and type of maritime service in time t. Attributes considered in the choice of hub port are aggregated in classes; for each class we recall main of these: Port location minimum deviation from the direct route between Suez and Gibraltar; distance from the geographic center of the Mediterranean basin; distance from the economic center of the Mediterranean basin;
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Infrastructural characteristics depth of the dock ports; length of the docks to class in depth; size of the square Equipment characteristics number of cranes compatible with the size of the ship; Service characteristics qualified staff; productivity (time while the ship is in port, the sum of the waiting time for berthing and time spent in dock); continuing time; efficiency of public services (customs, financial police, ASL, etc.).
The assumption of independence introduced between service choice and hub port allows us to subdivide the systematic utility related to a pair m,serv m,hub in a part related exclusively to the service choice and in a part related to the join choice service-hub: Vm,hub m,serv=Vm,hub+Vm,serv. with Vm,hub part of systematic utility related to the hub port choice; Vm,serv part of systematic utility related to the service choice. Vm,serv is function, in general, of attributes related to the service and to the freight class, and of alternative specific attributes; among which: Tm,serv Cm,serv Cl ASA travel time for a ship which directly link the generic pair of origin/destination (o/d) ports; unitary transport cost of a container; attribute function of class of freight; alternative specific attribute.
If we suppose that the user choice process can be specified according to a factorial approach with a Gumbel distribution of random residuals, it is possible to specify the probability to choose the joint alternative m,serv m,hub as: p(m)=p(m,serv, m,hub)=p(m,serv)p(m,hub)= ={exp[Vm,serv/0]/m,serv[Vm,serv/0]}{exp[Vm,hub/]/m,hubexp[Vm,hub/]} The following section proposes the specification and calibration of service and hub port choice probabilities.
4 Calibration of the choice probability of service mode

The calibration of the proposed model, reported in this section, refers to an experiment carried out in the Mediterranean basin, where it is reasonable to assume that service and hub port choices are independent and that therefore the decision-making process can be expressed according to a factorial approach. For the mode service choice, considered alternatives are: point-to-point (PP); hub and spoke (TR); The proposed specification of utility function for Vm,serv is reported in the following for the alternatives point-to-point (PP) and hub and spoke (TR):
VPP 1 2 TPP 3 C PP 4 Dep VTR 2 TTR 3 CTR 5 Short _ Fedeer
where TP,P TTR travel time for a ship with capacity equal to 4.000 container that directly links the generic pair of origin/destination (o/d) ports; total time, in days, required to link a pair o/d ports, using a transhipment port where containers are transferred from one feeder ship to a mother ship; it was assumed that the capacity of the feeder ship is of 2.000 TEU and that of the mother ship of 10.000 TEU; unit cost, in dollars, for the transport of a container that travels on a ship of 4.000 TEUs, which directly link a pair of ports o/d; unit cost, in dollars, for the transport of a container that travels on a 2.000 TEU ship, during the route from the port of origin to the port of transhipment, and on a 10.000TEU ship, during the route from the port of transhipment to the port destination; the cost is the sum of the cost of sea travel and the cost of stay of ships in the port of transhipment; dummy variable that is a equal to 1 if the type of goods transported is perishable, zero otherwise; dummy variable that is a equal to 1 if the distance travelled by the feeder ship is less than 20% of the total distance, zero otherwise; attribute parameters.
CPP CTR
Dep Short_feeder
1...5
For the model calibration, level of service attributes are estimated considering specific supply models, with cost functions related to travel time and cost [23 26], which are focused on in some cases. For all the shipments to and from the
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Mediterranean basin belonging to the sample, travel times (port-port and ships stay in port) and operating costs for transporting a TEU were calculated. The model was calibrated in a disaggregated way, by means of a sample of 727 observations of shipments between pairs of ports. The results (Table 1) show that the calibrated parameter values are significant and have correct sign, as regards time and cost. It is worth to highlight the importance of parameter Dep, for the alternative point-to-point. It expresses the willingness to choose this service for perishable freight and it represents the need to reduce the time and number of stops at the risk of unusable goods. The parameter Short_feeder is also important, expressing the willingness to choose the transhipment service if the distances with feeder vessel are less than 20% of the total distance travelled. Table 1:
Attribute Modal Time Cost Dep Short_feeder N. of observations Rho2
Calibration of choice of mode/service model.

Alternative PP PP, TR PP, TR PP TR Unit 0/1 Days Euro 0/1 0/1 Parameter 1,315 -0,460 -0,036 0,904 2,025 727 0,280
The calibrated models are able to reproduce the current choices and they can be used to forecast the effects of different scenarios. The scenarios are related to the characteristics of port facilities and to services and routes supplied by shipping companies.
5 Calibration of the choice probability of hub port

This section reports a specification of the hub port choice model and the calibrations obtained as a result of an experiment carried out in the Mediterranean basin. The considered alternatives for the choice of port hub are 19 and they are characterized by the higher number of container handled in the Mediterranean basin. The model has a structure which is similar to the distribution models, enabling to estimate the choice probability of a port hub between the available destinations. The systematic utility, Vm,hub, is a function of attributes related to each hub port. The choice of a hub port by a shipping company depends on several factors, such as the socio-economic characteristics of the area to which the port belongs, the geographical location and the physical characteristics. A possible specification for the hub port choice, including those in the Mediterranean basin, is the following:

Vm,hub=1Bai+2Kmi+3Ngrui +4Capi+5Soci+6Popi length of the docks with high depth for considered port i, expressed in km; minimum distance of port i from the Suez - Gibraltar route, in km; number of cranes in port i; capacity of the yards, in TEU; dummy variable equal to 1 if economic, social and safety conditions in the port i are standard; dummy variable equal to 1 if the population of city in which port is located is more than 1 million of inhabitants, equal to 0 otherwise; attribute parameters.
with Bai Kmi Ngrui Capi Soci Popi
1...6
Attributes used for the model calibration (length docks, crane number, capacity of squares, etc.) were obtained from the database built in the behalf of research project mentioned in the introduction, whose results are reported in [27, 28]. Each port has also been associated with the number of TEUs handled in a year. The model is calibrated by means of an aggregate approach [29], using data application on the quantity of TEUs handled in a year in the ports. We recall Russo and Vitetta [30] for the calibration of link cost functions by reverse assignment. The results obtained (Table 2) show the importance of geographic location of each port (Kmi) and of the ownership of competitive infrastructures. In particular, it highlights the weight of the attribute related to the number of gantry cranes (Ngrui), having a greater allocation of quay cranes for moving a greater number of TEUs, and this has an impact on costs and productivity in the economies of scale. Table 2:
Attribute Ba Km Ngru Cap Soc Pop RMSE%
Results of the calibrations on the choice of port hub.

Alternative G G G G G G Unit km km Number TEU 0/1 0/1 Parameter 0,051 -0,002 0,077 7,390E-0,6 0,285 -0,875 16%
G: generic alternative.
The results show the importance of the parameter Soci, with positive sign, confirming that safe working conditions and satisfactory welfare are related to an increase in production in the port. This is the case, for example, of Algeciras and Gioia Tauro, among the main Mediterranean ports. The parameter Popi, with negative sign, allows extrapolating the regional port effect, in order to consider only the rate of flow of transhipment that arrives or leaves each port. It is the
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case of the port of Valencia, where over 3 million TEUs are handled in a year, of which, however, only 34% are of transhipment.
6 Conclusion and future perspectives

In this work a general utility function for service/mode choice and for hub port choice on an international scale is proposed. At this scale, the sea is basically the only alternative transport mode, for which it should simulate the choice of service in this mode, compared to the traditional selection procedures adopted at national and regional spatial scales. As part of the alternative sea-container it is necessary to identify the type of service used, and, in the case of scenario with transhipment, what is the hub port used. Assuming independent choices, using a set of data on shipments between ports and container handling, an experiment for the Mediterranean basin has been proposed. The calibrated models allowed reproduction of the current choices, both in terms of choice of mode/service, as part of the alternative containers, both in terms of choice of port hub. The future objectives concern the models application for simulating the effects of different scenarios, which will consider different configurations of characteristics of port facilities and of services and routes supplied by shipping companies. Moreover, different hypothesis of random residual distribution will be tested, considering the sequential dynamic approach, both with Logit [31, 32] and with Probit [21] specifications.
References
[1] Russo F. & Musolino G., Container maritime transport at international scale: a procedure for aggregate estimation of demand variables. Proc. of Sustainable Development and Planning V, Brebbia C. A. (ed.), WIT Press, Southampton, Boston, 2011. ISBN 978-1-84564-544-1. [2] Russo F. & Assumma V., Container maritime transport at international scale: a model to simulate the demand flow in the Mediterranean basin. Proc. of Sustainable Development and Planning V, Brebbia C. A. (ed.), WIT Press, Southampton, Boston, 2011. ISBN 978-1-84564-544-1. [3] Russo F. & Rindone C. Container maritime transport at international scale: Data Envelopment Analysis for transhipment ports. Proc. of Sustainable Development and Planning V, Brebbia C. A. (ed.), WIT Press, Southampton, Boston, 2011. ISBN 978-1-84564-544-1. [4] Haralambides H., Veenstra A., Multivariate autoregressive models in commodity trades, 8th World Conference on Transport Research Conference, July 1998, Antwerp, Belgium, 1998. [5] Mundell R.A., Transport costs in international trade theory, The Canadian Journal of Economic and Political Science, 23(3), 331-348, 1957. [6] Ricardo D., On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, 1817.

[7] Oum, T.H., Waters, W.G. II, Yong, J.S., A survey of recent estimates of price elasticities of demand for transport, Policy Planning and Research Working Papers, WPS 359, 1990. [8] Wilson A.G., Urban and regional models in geography and planning, John Wiley and Sons, London, 1974 [9] Hartwick J.M., The gravity hypothesis and transportation cost minimization, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 4, 1-9, 1974 [10] Nijkamp P., (1975), Reflections on gravity and entropy models, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 5, 203-225, 1975 [11] Bougheas S., Demetriades P., Morgenroth E.L, Infrastructure, transport costs and trade, Journal of International Economics, 7, 169-189, 1999. [12] Isard W., Interregional and regional input/output analysis: a model of a space economy. The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 33, n. 4, pp. 318-328, 1951. [13] Leontief W., Costa P., Il trasporto merci e leconomia italiana. Scenari di interazione al 2000 e al 2015, Sistemi Operativi, New York-Venezia, 1987 [14] Regan A.C., Garrido P. A.. Modeling Freight Demand and Shipper Behaviour: State of the Art, Future Directions. Preprint IATBR, Sydney, 2000. [15] Coto-Millan P., Banos-Pino J., Villaverde J. Determinants of maritime import and export functions. Transp Res E 44(4), pp. 357-372, 2005. [16] Russo F., Assumma V. Sistema di modelli per lanalisi e la simulazione dei flussi di domanda container nel Mediterraneo. In Russo F. (Ed.) Scenari di riferimento per i porti container italiani nel sistema Euro-Mediterraneo Dati di riferimento e stato dellarte su modelli e metodi per lanalisi di domanda e offerta. Franco Angeli, Milano, 2010. [17] Park, N.K., Lim C.K. Port choice model of transhipment cargo using system dynamic. Proceeding of WCTR XII, Julay, Lisbon, Portugal, 2010. [18] Veldamn S., Buckmann E.. A model on container port competition, an application for the West European Container hub-ports. Maritain Economics & Logistics, Vol.5, n2, march, 2003. [19] Russo F., Assumma V., Chil G., Iann D. Stato dellarte su modelli per la previsione dei flussi di domanda merci nei porti container hub. In Russo F. (ed.) I porti container italiani nel sistema Euro-Mediterraneo Dati di riferimento e stato dellarte su modelli e metodi per lanalisi di domanda e offerta. Franco Angeli, Milano, 2010. [20] Russo F., Chil G., Iann D., Modello di scelta del scontainer e del porto hub per il trasporto merci a scala internazionale. In Russo F. (Ed.) Scenari di riferimento per i porti container italiani nel sistema Euro-Mediterraneo Dati di riferimento e stato dellarte su modelli e metodi per lanalisi di domanda e offerta. Franco Angeli, Milano, 2010. [21] F. Russo, Chil G., Probit Sequential Model for Users Choices. In Proceedings of European Transport Conference 2008, Noordwiikerhout (NL), 2008. [22] Russo F., Chil G, A sequential dynamic choice to simulate demand evacuation, Proc. of Seventh International Conference on Computer
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[23] [24] [25]
[26] [27] [28]
[29]
[30] [31]
[32]
Simulation in Risk Analysis and Hazard Mitigation, Brebbia C. A. (ed.), WIT Press, Southampton, pp. 431- 442. ISBN978-1-84564-472-7, 2010. Russo F., Trasporto intermodale delle merci. In G.E. Cantarella (ed.) Introduzione alla Tecnica dei Trasporti e del Traffico con Elementi di Economia dei Trasporti, UTET, Torino, 2001. Postorino M.N., Trasporto marittimo e idroviario. In G.E. Cantarella (ed.) Introduzione alla Tecnica dei Trasporti e del Traffico con Elementi di Economia dei Trasporti, UTET, Torino, 2001. Gattuso D., Musolino G., Modelli di costo del trasporto marittimo in container e di interscambio modale. In G.E. Cantarella and F. Russo (eds.) Metodi e Tecnologie dellIngegneria dei Trasporti - Seminario 2000, Franco Angeli, Milano, 2002 Russo F. Sistemi di trasporto merci. Approcci quantitativi per il supporto alle decisioni di pianificazione strategica tattica ed operativa a scala nazionale. Franco Angeli, Milano, 2005. Russo F. (ed.) I porti container italiani nel sistema Euro-Mediterraneo Dati di riferimento e stato dellarte su modelli e metodi per lanalisi di domanda e offerta. Franco Angeli, Milano, 2010. Russo F. (Ed.) Scenari di riferimento per i porti container italiani nel sistema Euro-Mediterraneo Dati di riferimento e stato dellarte su modelli e metodi per lanalisi di domanda e offerta. Franco Angeli, Milano, 2010. Cascetta E., Iann D. (2000). Calibrazione aggregata di un sistema di modelli di domanda merci a scala nazionale. Metodi e Tecnologie dellIngegneria dei Trasporti, (a cura di) G. E. Cantarella e F. Russo. Franco Angeli, pp. 156-178. Russo, F., Vitetta, A. Reverse assignment: calibrating link cost functions and updating demand from traffic counts and time measurements. Inverse Problems in Science and Engineering, 2011, Forthcoming. Russo F., Chil G., Sequential models for mobility decisions: experimentation for vehicle holding choices. In Proceedings of European Transport Conference 2007, Noordwiikerhout (NL). CD ISBN 978-1905701-02-5, 2007. Russo F., Vitetta A., An assignment model with modified Logit, which obviates enumeration and overlapping problems. Transportation. Vol. 30, Issue 2, Pages 177-201, 2003.
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Container maritime transport on an international scale: data envelopment analysis for transhipment port
F. Russo & C. Rindone
Abstract
Ports performances depend on infrastructural and service characteristics. It is possible to adopt different evaluation methods to compare these performances. In this work a state of the art evaluation method to compare container ports is reported. Non-parametric methods are analysed and in particular applications of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) are reported. Prototypal results of DEA application for a set of Mediterranean container ports are presented. Keywords: transhipment port, evaluation methods, DEA.
1 Introduction
Port characteristics and their possible evolutions are defined in relation to specific transportation planning dimensions [1, 2]. Respect to temporal dimension, three main commercial functions of a port can be defined: regional port, gateway, transhipment. Regional port competition regards only ports with similar external conditions. Gateway port competition regards ports with connection availability to high level of service quality railways and highways. Transhipment port competition regards ports with a hub and spoke function at intercontinental scale. Then for regional and gateway ports the competition is driven by external elements and the internal elements that define the specific port are sometime not important. The most important competition regards transhipment ports. Infrastructures and services influence competition between hub ports even if also non-material characteristics influence the challenge but in this case the weight is lower.

Infrastructural characteristics influence port choice and often it constitutes constraints for some typologies of maritime traffic: for instance, quay depth influences transhipment traffic. Services characteristics supplied in a port, given the same infrastructural characteristics, are decisive factors in maritime travel choices. At strategic scale evaluation concerns infrastructures investments, while at tactical scale, infrastructural characteristics can be considered constant, and then evaluation concerns principally services. Investments evaluation is finalised to compare effects produced after implementation of infrastructures and services. Comparisons are carried out respect to one or more factors. The method generally adopted to evaluate infrastructural investments is Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA). One of limits of CBA concerns in the difficulty to consider non monetary effects. To overcome this limit, multicriteria methods can be adopted. These methods allow the comparison of effects that in some cases can be incommensurable. Most multicriteria methods require some information on preference of decision makers that are generally represented through weights. Specification of weight influences strongly results [3, 4] and in some case multicriteria is equivalent to CBA. A different approach can be used for services. Services are modelled as a productive process characterised by a set of inputs that are combined to obtain a set of outputs. Investments, represented by means of a productive process are compared in terms of efficiency that is the capacity to transform a set of inputs into a set of outputs. A possible method to analyse competition among ports is performance measurement that assume a relevant role in analysis of current situation and to support decision maker for possible future scenarios [5, 6]. A productive process is represented by means of a production function that is the relationship between quantity of inputs used and quantity of product resulting. A production frontier function is an extension of production function and it represents ideally maximum output obtainable with a given set of inputs [7]. Different methods to estimate efficiency are available in literature. A classification of these methods comprehends: parametric methods, based on the assumption that the production function of fully efficient firms is known [8]; a method is Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) [9]; non-parametric methods, based on the assumption that the production function of fully efficient firms is not known; some methods are Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) [10] and Free Disposal Hull (FDH) [11, 12]. In this paper a DEA non-parametric method is proposed to evaluate in the same time infrastructures and services in a transhipment port. DEA was originally introduced to evaluate production efficiency in industrial systems, where inputs are labour, energy and capital resources and outputs are goods or services. Starting from Farrells definition of efficiency [13], the first formulation of DEA was introduced by Charnes et al. [10], it was indicated with
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the acronym CCR referring to authors names. This formulation was based on the hypothesis of Constant Returns to Scale (CRS). An extension of the CCR model, denoted with the acronym BCC, has been proposed by Banker et al. [14], in which the CRS hypothesis is removed and Variable Returns to Scale (VRS) (decreasing or increasing) are admitted. DEA is based on technical efficiency concept that measures capacity of a decision unit (or in general Decision Making Unit DMU) to realize a productive process that combines production factors (input) to obtain a product (output). Then, each DMU is represented by means of a set of one, or more, inputs and a set of one, or more, outputs. Defining the space of input variables (Rr) and output variables (Rs), each DMU can be allocated in a point representative of his efficiency belonging to the space R(r U s). Efficient DMUs belong to the frontier. The distance from this frontier is a measure of inefficiency of a DMU, that could be eliminated through a variation in quantity of inputs (input-oriented) or outputs (output-oriented) or both (additive model) [15]. Time variation of efficiency measures is considered according to different approaches. Common approaches presented in literature are: contemporaneous approach; intertemporal approach; sequential approach; windows analysis [16, 17]. These approaches differ on construction of observation set into different temporal periods. DEA has subsequently been applied in many fields of economics and engineering [18]. The main works on transport planning regard evaluation performance of: urban transport systems [19, 20], air transport systems [21], transport system in emergency conditions [22, 23], railways systems [24, 25]. The general works regard the support decision making process in the phases of selection and ranking of alternative scenarios [2629]. In this paper we propose to use the DEA approach to analyse the comparative effectiveness on a set of hub ports. Each port is represented by means of a virtual productive process fed by a set of inputs that generate a set of outputs. Inputs comprehend a set of resources needed to realise infrastructures and/or services to perform functions of a transhipment port. Outputs of process comprehend two different time levels: the first level, defined properly output, comprehends products and services immediately available after investments (for instance a new higher depth quay or the cranes availability); the second level, defined outcome, comprehends effects produced by the terminal using infrastructures and services for instance annual container throughput in a port using depth quay and cranes. Starting from a set of alternative investments that can be made, DEA can be applied to compare investments represented in terms of inputs and the time level of results, output and outcome. It is possible to distinguish efficient and not efficient alternatives considering supply modification and effectiveness considering demand interception. The paper is organized as follows. In section 2 DEA non-parametric methods are recalled, with a survey on the applications for maritime transport. In section 3 prototypal results of a DEA application for a set of container ports in

Mediterranean context are presented. In section 4 some final considerations are reported.
2 DEA in transportation planning

2.1 Definitions and notations A transportation system is represented by means of a productive process characterised from a set of inputs that generates a set of outputs, adopting to DEA approach. The analytic formulation of DEA is based on an efficiency measure (j) of jth process in terms of ratio between output (Oj) and input (Ij): j = O j / I j (j = 1, ..., n) (1) The CCR form of efficiency measurement problem can be written as a set of n linear programming problems to obtain unknown weights assigned to inputs and outputs. If the goal is pursued for increasing values of output, it follows that objective function has to be maximized; otherwise, objective function has to be minimized. In the maximizing form the jth problem is expressed: maximize j = Oj / Ij subject to: O j / Ij 1 uj 0 vj 0 where Oj = ujT oj Ij = vjT ij oj Rs: (o1, , os)T ij Rr: (i1, , ir)T uj Rs: (u1, , us)T
u ,v j j
(j = 1, ..., n) (j = 1, ..., n)
(2)
is the measure of output for jth process; is the measure of input for jth process; vector of outputs; vector of inputs; vector of unknown weights for each component of outputs; vector of unknown weights for each vj Rr: (v1, , vr)T component of inputs. This formulation, for each jth process, allows to find the set of weights, uj and vj, that maximize the efficiency indicator, j, assuming that the maximum value is equal to one. The efficient frontier is obtained from envelopment of points representing efficient planning process. Points not belonging to the frontier represent nonefficient processes. Among the considered processes, there is at least one that is efficient. The distance from the frontier may be calculated for the inefficient points.
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2.2 DEA for maritime transport system In recent years several studies applying DEA, to evaluate efficiency of container ports have been developed in literature. These applications are referred to different set of ports at international scale, European and Mediterranean [3033]. Input generally are: capital, for instance, in terms of number of quays for containers; labour, for instance, in terms of human resources dedicated to container traffics; port equipments, for instance, in terms of available cranes; land, for instance, in terms of surface dedicated to container terminal. Outputs generally are: annual container throughput (TEU) or container throughput in a peak work hour; these measures represent indirectly a measure of quantity and quality of supplied services in a port. Non-parametric methods generally applied are DEA and Free Disposal Hull (FDH). Proposed formulations are CCR, BCC input oriented, output oriented or additive model. Classification of inputs (capital, labour, equipment and land), generally adopted in the applications of DEA to evaluate ports performances, can result not directly connected to temporal dimensions of transport planning. Using input classification, generally used in literature, a comparison of port performances in different temporal dimensions of transportation planning is complex; especially considering evolution of infrastructures and services characteristics. A proposed classification referred to transportation planning activities comprehends: activities related to material infrastructure that include interventions to modify physical characteristics of transport system elements; activities related to non-material that include the consolidated research, learning and training, and other activities connected to telematics or Intelligent Transportation System; activities related to equipment that include interventions to provide operative tools that contribute to realise specific services; activities related to management that include interventions to manage transportation system; activities related to governance and institutional that include interventions to regulate transportation system. Literature concerning DEA applications for container ports is classified according to the following criteria (Tab. 1): set of ports for which efficiency is calculated (Set of DMU); set of considered activities classified on, material infrastructures, non materials, equipment, management, institutional and governance (the last two are grouped in a only class), (input); set of considered output (output); DEA specification: Input Oriented (IO), Output Oriented (OO), Additive Model (AM) (specification); DEA model CCR, BCC, FDH (typology of model).
3 DEA for Mediterranean container ports

In this paper an application of DEA to compare effectiveness of main transhipment container ports in the same area is presented. The application is

Table 1: Classification of literature concerning DEA applications.
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finalised to obtain frontier efficiency starting from available data relative to the period 2006-2008. We can use the term efficiency but, recalling the specifications before introduced, the current should be effectiveness. Database is obtained from results of a two-year research project financed by the Italian Ministry of University and Research, whose general objective is to define guidelines for the competitiveness of the Italian transhipment ports of Gioia Tauro, Cagliari and Taranto in the euro-Mediterranean context. Other specific lines of research concern the development, and the application to the Mediterranean area, of aggregate procedures [43] and models [44] to estimate the demand variables of container maritime transport, of choice models of maritime container services and ports [45], of methods to evaluate the efficiency of container transhipment ports. During the project development, a homogeneous database, related to the main container ports in Mediterranean sea, realised. Database collects information about: infrastructural supply that comprehends available infrastructures relative to land and sea sides; services supply for container traffic, in terms of lines and frequencies that reach ports; container transport demand, expressed in terms of throughput in analysed ports (TEU). In this paper, starting from the full database, that comprehends all ports for which homogeneous information is available, three different port subsets are considered: subset of container ports in which annual container throughput is more than 500.000 TEU and less than 1.000.000 TEU and that have, respect to annual container throughput, a transhipment incidence greater than 80%: Cagliari, Damietta and Taranto (Mediterranean medium transhipment ports); subset of container ports in which annual container throughput is more than 1.000.000 TEU and that have, respect to annual container throughput, a transhipment incidence more than 80%: Algeciras, Gioia Tauro, Marsaxlokk and Port Said (Mediterranean large transhipment ports); subset of container ports that have, respect to annual container throughput, a transhipment incidence more than 80%: Cagliari, Damietta and Taranto, Algeciras, Gioia Tauro, Marsaxlokk and Port Said (Mediterranean transhipment ports). DEA exercise is applied for each port subset. In order to represent productive process of each port, the following data are selected: two inputs, length of quay dedicated to container traffic with depth more than 14 meters (quay length); number of cranes dedicated to container traffic (cranes number); one output, annual quantity of TEU relative to each port (TEU/year). DEA methods applied are relative to CCR and BCC formulations; in all cases input oriented specification is adopted. Results are presented in aggregate form, considering the following classes: efficient ports with an index equal to 1 (efficient ports synthetically indicated with E);

inefficient ports with an index included in the range between 0,9 and 1 (inefficient ports synthetically indicated with the symbol ***); inefficient ports with an efficiency index included in the range between 0,6 and 0,9 (inefficient ports synthetically indicated with the symbol **); inefficient ports with an efficiency index included in the range between 0 and 0,6 (inefficient ports synthetically indicated with the symbol *).
3.1.1 Mediterranean medium transhipment ports Concerning the subset Mediterranean medium transhipment ports (Tab. 2): considering a productive process characterised by one input (cranes number) and one output (TEU/year) result that: in the CCR case, Algeciras is efficient; other considered ports are inefficient; in the BCC case, Algeciras and Cagliari are efficient; other considered ports are inefficient; considering a productive process characterised by two input (cranes number and quay length) and one output (TEU/year) result that: in the CCR case, Algeciras and East Port Said are efficient; other considered ports are inefficient; in the BCC Algeciras, East Port Said, Cagliari and Damietta are efficient; other considered ports are inefficient. 3.1.2 Mediterranean large transhipment ports Concerning the subset Mediterranean large transhipment ports (Tab. 2): considering a productive process characterised by one input (cranes number) and one output (TEU/years) result that: in the CCR case, the only one efficient port is Cagliari; other considered ports are inefficient; in the BCC case, all considered ports are efficient (Cagliari, Damietta and Taranto); considering a productive process characterised by two input (cranes number and quay length) and one output (TEU/years) result that: in the CCR case, Cagliari and Damietta are efficient; other considered ports are inefficient; in the BCC case, all considered ports are efficient (Cagliari, Damietta and Taranto). 3.1.3 Mediterranean transhipment ports Concerning the subset Mediterranean transhipment ports (Tab. 2): considering a productive process characterised by one input (cranes number) and one output (TEU/years) result that: in the CCR case, the only one efficient port is Algeciras; other considered ports are inefficient; in the BCC case, Algeciras, Gioia Tauro and East Port Said are efficient; Marsaxlokk is inefficient;
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considering a productive process characterised by two input (cranes number and quay length) and one output (TEU/years) result that: in the CCR case, Algeciras and East Port Said are efficient; other considered ports are inefficient; in the BCC case, Algeciras, Gioia Tauro and East Port Said are efficient; Marsaxlokk is inefficient. Table 2: Summary of results from DEA applications.
Mediterranean large transhipment ports 1i_1o 1i_1o 2i_1o 2i_1o CCR BCC CCR BCC Mediterranean transhipment ports 1i_1o 1i_1o 2i_1o 2i_1o CCR BCC CCR BCC
Port
Mediterranean medium transhipment ports 1i_1o 1i_1o 2i_1o 2i_1o CCR BCC CCR BCC
Cagliari Damietta Taranto Algeciras Gioia Tauro Marsaxlokk East Port Said
1i_1o: 2i_1o: E: ***: **: *:
E ** *
E E E
E E **
E E E E *** * ** E E *** E E *** * E E E *** E
** * * E *** * **
E ** * E *** * **
** ** * E *** * E
E E ** E *** ** E
1 input (cranes number), 1 output (TEU/year) 2 inputs (cranes number, quay length), 1 output (TEU/year) efficient port efficiency index included in the range [0,9; 1) efficiency index included in the range [0,6; 0,9) efficiency index included in the range [0; 0,6)
4 Final considerations
Non-parametric methods measure efficiency of a port respect to a frontier production function that depends on the set of ports considered. This means that if set changes, then measure of efficiency can be different. Prototypal results of DEA applications presented in this paper show that efficiency of transhipment ports varies with of DEA method, formulation and the subset of considered data. In all DEA specification analysed: considering competition among all and Mediterranean large transhipment ports, Algeciras port results efficient; in the competition among Mediterranean medium transhipment ports, Cagliari results efficient; Marsaxlokk in all set of transhipment ports results inefficient; Egyptian ports (Damietta and East Port Said) and the other Italian ports (Taranto and Gioia Tauro) have high index of efficiency considering BCC specifications. At medium term, activation of Tanger Med port in Morocco could modify relative efficiency of Mediterranean transhipment ports. At strategic scale, activation of Enfidha port in Tunisia could introduce a new element of congestion among Mediterranean ports.
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Section 12 Energy resources
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Financing sources and policies for renewable energies

A. Ivanova, A. Gamez & M. ngeles
Autonomous University of Southern Baja California, M ex ico
Abstract
Renewable energy (RE) has a significant potential to mitigate global climate change, address regional and local environmental concerns, reduce poverty and increase energy security. The challenge is to provide the right policy frameworks and financial tools that will enable RE to achieve its market potential and move from the margins of energy supply into the mainstream. Policy-makers thus have a mandate to take action and, since most of the capital for this greening will not come from public treasuries, most of this action will need to focus on creating enabling frameworks and finance mechanisms for technology R&D, commercialization and investment. Renewable energies, although subject to the same market forces as conventional energy sources, involve markedly different technologies and thus their financing requires new thinking, new risk management approaches and new forms of capital. After examining and analyzing the financing trends for renewable energies, we conclude that market signals alone even when incorporating carbon pricing have not been sufficient to trigger significant renewable energies growth. Therefore the importance of the well-designed policies is crucial. To be as effective as possible, these must be taking into account the state of the technology, available RE resources, and responding to local political, economic, social and cultural needs and conditions. Keywords: renewable energies, policies, financing, mitigation.
1 Introduction
Government policies are required for a substantial increase in deployment of renewable energy. Market signals alone even when incorporating carbon

pricing have not been sufficient to trigger significant RE growth. Multiple success stories from around the world demonstrate that policies can have a substantial impact on RE development and deployment. Significant improvements in energy efficiency and a global transition to renewable energy will require huge investments in national and local energy infrastructures in every country over the coming decade. These investments will need to come from both the public and private sectors, and they will have to take many forms: including financial incentives from government; loans and capital investment from banks, private investors, venture capital funds and communities; as well as new innovative markets that contribute to the benefits of renewable energy and energy efficiency.
2 Trends in RE policies
Growth in RE capacity and energy production have increased rapidly over the past several years, with several technologies experiencing average annual growth rates in the double digits. Although renewable 19 technologies still account for a relatively small share of total global energy use, in 2008 alone the 20 world added an estimated 65 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable electric capacity, accounting for 41 percent of total capacity additions that year. Several factors are driving this rapid growth in RE markets [14], but government policies have played a crucial role in accelerating the deployment of RE technologies. Until the early 1990s, few countries had enacted policies to promote RE. Since then, and particularly since the early- to mid-2000s, policies have begun to emerge in an increasing number of countries at the national, provincial/state, and municipal levels. Initially, most policies adopted were in developed countries, but more recently a growing number of developing countries have enacted policy frameworks to promote RE. In 2005, an estimated 45 countries including 10 developing countries had policy targets for RE [12]; by early 2009, the number of countries with policy targets had increased to at least 73 [14]. Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) or quotas are also widely used and, by early 2009, had been enacted by an estimated 9 countries at the national level and by at least 40 states or provinces [15]. REs share of new global electricity generation has risen in line with the increase in FIT and RPS policies. In addition, an increasing number of governments are adopting incentives and mandates to advance renewable transport fuels and renewable heating technologies. For example, in the 12 countries analyzed for the IEA, the number of policies introduced to support renewable heating either directly or indirectly increased from five in 1990 to more than 55 by May 2007 [9].
3 Financing trends
In response to the increasingly supportive policy environment, the RE sector has seen rapidly increasing levels of financing in the past few years, with $116
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billion of new financial investment in 2008, up from 15.5 billion USD in 2002 [8]. Financing has been increasing into the five areas of i) R&D (which is covered in the previous subsection); ii) technology development and commercialization; iii) equipment manufacturing and sales; iv) project construction; and v) the refinancing and sale of companies. The trends in financing going into these areas represent successive steps in the innovation process and provide indicators of the RE sectors current and expected growth, as follows: Trends in R&D funding and technology investment (i, ii) are indicators of the mid- to long-term expectations for the sector investments are being made that will only begin to pay off several years down the road. Trends in manufacturing investment (iii) are an indicator of near term expectations for the sector essentially, that the growth in market demand will continue. Trends in new generating capacity investment (iv) are an indicator of current sector activity. Trends in industry mergers and acquisitions (v) are an indicator of the overall maturity of the sector, since increasing refinancing activity over time indicates that larger more conventional investors are entering the sector, buying up successful early investments from first movers.
4 Key drivers, opportunities and benefits

The financing trends are being driven in great part by government policies, and policies for the deployment of RE are, in turn, driven by several environmental, economic, social and security goals. The drivers can be differentiated as factors that are pushing for the deployment of RE policy (for example climate change and the need to reduce fossil fuel emissions from the energy sector), from opportunities (which, for example, lead a country to invest in RE with the explicit goal of developing a new domestic or export industry, irrespective of the drivers), and from the benefits of promoting RE, which are generally the flip side of the drivers or opportunities (for example, reduced emissions, improved health, more jobs, better skills and so on). The distinctions among these factors are necessarily close and overlapping. The relative importance of the drivers, opportunities or benefits varies from country to country and may vary over time, as changing circumstances affect economies, attitudes and public perceptions.RE technologies offer governments the potential to realize multiple policy goals, sometimes simultaneously, that cannot be obtained to the same extent or quality through the development and use of conventional energies. Key drivers for policies to advance RE are: Mitigating climate change Enhancing access to energy Improving security of energy supply and use Decreasing environmental impacts of energy supply Decreasing health impacts associated with energy production and use.

And, a key issue which is both a driver and an opportunity: fostering economic development and job creation. 4.1 Climate change mitigation RE is a major tool for climate change mitigation, its potential being the focus of this report. The degree to which RE mitigates climate change depends on many factors, addressed in the various sections of this chapter and report. As a result, RE is an integral aspect of government strategies for reducing carbon dioxide (and other) emissions in many countries, including all member states of the European Union. Several U.S. states, including California and Washington, and numerous U.S. cities, from Chicago to Miami, have adopted RE targets and policies to advance their strategies for addressing climate change [18]. Developing countries are also enacting RE policies in order to address climate change, among other goals. In June 2008, in launching Indias National Action Plan on Climate Change, Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh said that: Our vision is to make Indias economic development energy-efficient. Over a period of time, we must pioneer a graduated shift from economic activity based on fossil fuels to one based on non-fossil fuels and from reliance on non renewable and depleting sources of energy to renewable sources of energy. The 2009 meeting of Leaders of Pacific Island Countries observed that in addition to RE offering the promise of cost-effective, reliable energy services to rural households it will also provide a contribution to global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts [15]. 4.2 Access to energy Renewable energies have the ability to effectively and quickly provide access to modern energy services, including lighting and refrigeration, and therefore RE plays an important role in achieving the millennium development goals [17]. Distributed RE can avoid the need for costly transport and distribution networks, which can make energy more costly for people in poor, remote communities than it is for urban populations. Access to modern, cleaner energy also reduces indoor air pollution, improving infant and maternal health; it advances education, agriculture and communications; it improves income generation; and it supports hunger eradication. Because of their modularity and flexible size, RE technologies have received increased attention from governments looking to electrify rural and remote areas. Another significant benefit of RE is that it often provides the lowest-cost option for remote and off-grid areas. Programs to increase the rate of access to energy and based on RE have occurred in many countries. For example, in 1996, the Government of Nepal established the Alternative Energy Promotion Centre for RE technologies in non-electrified areas to improve the well-being of the countrys impoverished rural population [10]. Likewise in Nigeria, where twothirds of the population lives in rural areas, the governments Renewable Energy
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Master Plan calls for RE deployment to improve energy services to the poor and thereby advance rural economic development [13]. Other developing countries including China, Bolivia, Bangladesh, India, Mexico, Nepal, Pakistan, South Africa, and Zambia have adopted RE policies for providing energy access to rural areas. 4.3 Energy security Energy security issues encompass: the technical underpinnings of the energy infrastructure so that it seamlessly transports and delivers energy without failure or threat of failure; concerns that incentives within markets and economic regulation will not encourage; sufficient investment in the energy system to ensure enough infrastructure (whether generation facilities, ports, storage and so on) to meet energy demand; concerns that a physical resource (i.e. oil or natural gas) will not be delivered as contracted, thereby limiting energy use and raising prices; concerns that the price of a physical resource, such as oil or gas, may rise to such an extent that it becomes unaffordable to increasing numbers of people, thus causing social unrest or difficulty; concerns that supply chains will not be able to deliver the technologies, parts and skills to enable deployment or operation of technologies, including RE; and concerns that the international relationships and foreign policies between countries may exacerbate concerns of resource access, including energy. The addition of RE technologies to the broad energy mix alters these concerns in different ways. However, RE power plants may make a power grid more robust against grid failures and break-downs, thereby increasing the energy security of that system. Decentralizing energy systems, via RE or other options, can also reduce vulnerability to energy disruptions that might result from damage to infrastructure resulting from natural disaster or attack. RE can diversify energy supply portfolios. Diversity has a number of energy system benefits but the use of RE may also displace the need for other fuels. This is particularly valuable for countries that import large amounts of energy, or are particularly dependent on one fuel source or supplier. For example, China established its 2005 Renewable Energy Law, among others, to diversify energy supplies and safeguard energy security [13]. Brazil has promoted ethanol from sugarcane as an alternative to fossil transport fuels for thirty years to decrease dependency on imported fuels. 4.4 Fostering economic development and job creation The European Union underlines the potential of job creation especially in rural and isolated areas in the reasoning for the Directive on the promotion of the

use of energy from renewable sources. Manufacturing and operation of RE have led to 157,000 jobs in Germany in 2004, and this number has grown to 280,000 in 2008. Spain has more than 1,000 enterprises in the RE industry, employing 89,000 workers directly and an estimated 99,000 indirectly. An EU modeling exercise found that, conservatively and under current policies, the RE industries would have about 950,000 direct and indirect full-time jobs by 2010 and 1.4 million by 2020 in the EU-15 [15]. In the developed and developing world, RE is seen as a means for increasing eco-development for tourism, and for driving economic revitalization. For example, the Austrian town of Gssing saw up to 400 tourists weekly by the late 2000s, coming to learn from the towns shift to RE [3]. A new hotel, heated and powered by RE, was built to accommodate the influx of tourists. The Navarre region in north-eastern Spain has witnessed creation of thousands of jobs and revitalization of many old villages since it began installing wind turbines in the early 1990s. Rizhao in China saw the number of tourists increase by 48 and 30 percent in 2004 and 2005, respectively, after enacting policies to increase use of RE and improve the local environment [16]. 4.5 Non-climate change environmental benefits The benefits of sustainable RE include improvements in air and water quality, and reduced impacts of fuel extraction, and energy production and use on biodiversity. For example, recognition of the risks to health, particularly to women and children, brought about by poor air quality indoors and out, has led governments to establish a range of initiatives, including policies to advance RE [3]. For example, avoiding negative environmental impacts is a major driver to promote clean energy technologies in China; the government of Pakistan intends to develop RE in order to avoid local environmental and health impacts of unsustainable and inefficient traditional biomass fuels and fossil fuel-powered electricity generation. There is a growing recognition among scientists and policy makers that the exploitation of energy resources, if not properly controlled and managed, will have a harmful impacts on biodiversity of plant and animal species.
5 Barriers to RE implementation
IPCC-WGIII (2007) defines an RE barrier as any obstacle to developing and deploying a RE potential that can be overcome or attenuated by a policy, program or measure. Barriers to RE deployment range from intrinsically natural properties of particular RE sources (for example intermittency and diffuse incidence of solar radiation) to artificial, unintentional or intentionally constructed, impediments (for example badly oriented, shadowed roof surfaces; a tilted (i.e. not having an equal playing field) power grid access conditions against independent generators). IPCC-WGIII (2007) completes its barrier definition with: Barrier removal includes correcting market failures directly or reducing the transactions costs in
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the public and private sectors by, for example, improving institutional capacity, reducing risk and uncertainty, facilitating market transactions, and enforcing regulatory policies. [5]. Barriers to RE deployment sets out what we have called an enabling environment which is conducive to RE deployment through the removal of hurdles or barriers to development. In this context the following nine areas can be distinguished: There is no level playing field for RE technologies, meaning that RE has to compete against other sources which have preferential treatment, whether in markets or network rules. RE have to exist in regulations which maintain status, including avoiding stranded assets in existing infrastructure. The incentives for Governments and private companies to support RE development are insufficient [1]. Financing is either scarce or unreasonably costly for RE technologies. Technology standards are lacking for (some) RE technologies and fuels [16]. Import tariffs and technical barriers impede trade in renewables. Permits for new RE plants are difficult to obtain. Energy markets are not prepared for RE [3]. RE skills and awareness is insufficient. Financing barriers. Policies address the failures and barriers which cause this gap between actual deployment and potential, while being subjected to their own failures.
6 Financing barriers
As we have seen, there are many barriers to RE deployment and policy and market failures to overcoming them. This paper focuses on their effect on the availability of financing. It looks first at the availability of capital; then moves on to financing for large scale projects; and lastly examines financing of small scale projects. Private and public sources contribute to RE financing. When risks to investors are significant, public investment, or significant subsidies, or public-private partnerships (or other types of mixed financing / ownership) may be needed [2]. Most RE projects have, what is known as upfront requirements (with an exception for biomass). This means that financing is relatively more important than for competing NSE projects. The availability of finance depends on general economic conditions, on the state of development of the capital markets in various countries, on the rating of the investor, on the type and characteristics of the RE project, etc. Even CDM envisioned for technology transfer does not address the point until recently CER purchasers, even where those purchasers are financial institutions, have largely tended to limit their involvement in the project to being an off-taker of CERs, with payment to be made upon delivery, rather than providing project finance or becoming equity participant in the project [8].

Developing nations with the largest potential for distributed, small-scale RE projects face the most and the highest financing hurdles due to affordability for users and entrenched attitudes in some financial institutions. Affordability is a compound problem of low income, high upfront investment cost to obtain RE technologies, and no adequate financing mechanisms [7]. In developing and undeveloped economies, RE deployment will grow if users are able to pay for their energy services. But there are not that many financial schemes and income generating activities that allow people to pay for investment and maintenance of RE options. The chequered history of donor sponsored failing RE projects causes financial institutions to perceive a lack of reliability and long-term viability of RE technology [21]. This implies a strong call for robust quality control on all future RE investments especially in developing countries. However, donors providing capital continue to add strict preconceived conditions on the technology to be applied and how projects are to be managed, usually not matching the needs and priorities of recipient communities [19]. The latter often prefer local mechanical and thermal power supplies above expensive grid power. Access to funding by international institutions is difficult, even to GEF funds earmarked for RE. It continues that significant shares of the funds are spent on studies and reports, leaving too little money for actual equipment and installations on the ground and strengthening local capacity. The transaction costs of developing smaller scale RE projects such as CDM projects (including the costs of external auditors, registration fees, consultants fees and legal fees for the negotiation of CER purchase agreements and power purchase agreements) may be prohibitively high compared to the volume of CERs expected to be generated [21]. Project appraisal studies often fail to incorporate important local aspects and values, also due to limited local stakeholder involvement [13]. In various countries, a stimulating RE policy contributed to easing of financing bottlenecks for large-scale RE projects (for example wind parks onshore and off-shore) [20]. Smaller-scale and independently owned distributed installations face more restrictive financing offers. Institutional creativity by cooperative ownership, micro-financing, energy service suppliers, and the like is still limited to niche experiments, and community-owned projects face several barriers [19].
7 Concluding remarks
A free market does not function according to rules of social responsibility and therefore needs to work within certain boundaries that serve social and environmental, as well as economic goals. Policy-makers have a social responsibility to set those boundaries. Legislators and regulators have it in their control to shift the future energy portfolio if they choose to decrease demand by improving energy efficiency and to push energy generation towards renewable energy.
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Financiers have a social responsibility to develop and deliver market solutions to the challenges of building a sustainable energy future. That energy future must take the form of a free energy market with less carbon, less fuel and fuel-price risk, and more and better access for the poor. Overall, policy is more important than resource potential in determining success, and policy design and implementation are critical to this success. Policies are most effective if targeted to reflect the state of the technology and available RE resources, and to respond to local political, economic, social and cultural needs and conditions. Moreover, policies that are clear, long-term, and robust, and that provide consistent signals generally result in high rates of innovation, policy compliance, and the evolution of efficient solutions. Well-designed policies are more likely to emerge, and to lead to successful implementation, in an enabling environment. An enabling environment combines economic, technological, social and cultural, institutional and financial dimensions, including both the public and private sectors. Coordination with policies related to other key and inter-linked sectors including agriculture, transportation, construction, technological development, and infrastructure is also important. Finally, achieving a sustainable energy system, one in which RE becomes the standard energy provider in a low-carbon energy economy, will require a structural shift to a more integrated energy service approach that takes advantage of synergies between RE and energy efficiency. The financial community has different products and sectors to match the differing requirements of the stages in technology development. These products will be all the more successful within an environment of favorable social innovation and acceptance. The involvement of individuals and society in the transformation is crucial. This is the case in both developed and developing countries.
References
[1] Agnolucci, P. The effect of financial constraints, technological progress and long-term contracts on tradable green certificates. Energy Policy, 35(6), 3347-3359, 2007. [2] Beck, F. and E. Martinot. Renewable Energy Barriers and Policies. In Encyclopedia of Energy: Ph-S. C. J. Cleveland (ed). Elsevier Academic Press, 2004. [3] Flavin, C. and M. H. Aeck. Energy for development: the potential role of renewable energy in meeting the Millennium Development Goals. Bonn, Germany, Worldwatch Institute, Germany; Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, Germany; German Agency for Technical Cooperation, 2005. [4] Hvelplund, F. Renewable energy and the need for local energy markets. Energy, 31(13), 2293-2302, 2006. [5] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. IPCC Assessment Report 4. Cambridge,

United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, Cambridge University Press, 2007. International Energy Agency (IEA). Renewables for Heating and Cooling: Untapped Potential. Renewable Energy Technology Deployment. Paris, France, EA/OECD, 2007. International Energy Agency (IEA). Deploying Renewables: Principles for Effective Policies. Paris, France, IEA, 2008. International Energy Agency (IEA). World Energy Outlook 2009. Paris, IEA, 2009. Jacobson, M. Z. and M. A. Delucchi. A Plan to Power 100 Percent of the Planet with Renewables. Scientific American, November, 2007. Mendona, M. and D. Jacobs. Feed-in Tariffs Go Global: Policy in Practice Renewable energy feed-in tariffs are growing in popularity as one of the most effective mechanisms of promoting renewable energy development. Renewable Energy World Magazine, September, 38-45, 2009. Pachauri, R. K. and A. Reisinger. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPPC. Geneva, Switzerland, IPPC, 2007. REN21. Renewables 2005 Global Status Report: Notes and References Companion Document. Paris, France, Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century, 2005. REN21. Renewables 2007: Global Status Report. REN21 Secretariat and Worldwatch Institute. Paris, France and Washington, DC, USA, Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century, 2007. REN21. Renewable Global Status Report: 2009 Update. Paris, France, Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century, 2009. REN21. Renewables Global Status Report: Energy Transformation Continues Despite Economic Slowdown. Retrieved October 29, 2009. Renewable Energy Technology Development (RETD). Barriers, Challenges and Opportunities. RETD. Paris, France, International Energy Agency, 2006. Sawin, J. L. Mainstreaming Renewable Energy in the 21st Century. Worldwatch Paper. T. Prugh. Washington, D.C., The Worldwatch Institute, 2004. Stern, N. The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. Cabinet Office HM Treasury. Cambridge, Cambridge, 2006. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Financial Risk Management Instruments for Renewable Energy Projects: Summary documents. Paris, France, UNEP, 2004. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and New Energy Finance Limited (NEF). Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2008: Analysis of Trends and Issues in the Financing of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency. I. a. E. Division of Technology. Paris, France, United Nations Environment Programme Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative and New Energy Finance Limited, 2008.
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[21] United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and New Energy Finance Limited (NEF). Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2009: Analysis of Trends and Issues in the Financing of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency. Division of Technology, Industry and Economics. Paris, France, United Nations Environment Programme Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative and New Energy Finance Limited, 2009.
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Energy and the implication of residential cooling in hot climates: a case study for developing an effective solution for residential cooling energy demand in Kuwait
H. Al-Mutairi, J. Dewsbury & G. F. Lane-Serff
School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, University of Manchester, UK
Abstract
Global energy statistics showed that oil is the most sought after energy source in the world. The economic burden on countries that are dependent on oil to produce electricity is noteworthy. Residential cooling is a significant consumer of electricity produced by oil in major oil producing countries with hot climates conditions. For this, Kuwait was selected for further analysis. By analysing official annual electricity statistics in Kuwait, residential cooling consumes 58.4% of the total delivered electrical energy at peak time on a hot summer day. Accordingly, the paper investigated orientation and grouping patterns of future houses in Kuwait to determine their impact on cooling load and electrical energy consumption. The popular DOE EnergyPlus simulation engine, through its interface with DesignBuilder Software, was used to obtain the cooling loads of the future houses. It was found that efficient orientation and grouping of houses, which is a zero cost energy conservation measure, can lead to tangible savings for future houses with approximately $US 33 million of power system capital costs, 15 GWh per year of electrical energy consumption and 11 kilotons per year of CO2 emissions. Keywords: energy demand, oil, residential cooling, building simulation, houses orientation and grouping.
1 World energy situation and consumption consequences

The rapidly increasing use of energy in the world has caused concern about supply difficulties and serious environmental impacts. Fossil fuels (i.e., coal, oil,
Figure 1:
Global energy consumption, based on official statistics [1].
and gas) and nuclear energy are the major sources of energy, followed by renewable sources. Global energy consumption is shown in Fig. 1. The global demand for energy generally increases as the human population, urbanization, and modernization increase. However, the high reliance on oil is notable. Official statistics show that oil is used to produce about 35% of the world energy demand [2]. It is important to acknowledge that the demand for oil will continue to increase unless drastic changes are made. Fig. 2 shows the history and projections for the demand for oil and other global energy resources in million ton [3]. From an economic point of view, the oil industry is a profitable sector for some corporations and governments, and taxes from oil are a major source of income for about 90 governments [4].
Figure 2:
The history and projections for global energy resources through 2030 [3].
2 Energy and life needs

Modernization and improvements in the quality of life have caused the demand for energy to reach high levels. Energy, especially electricity, touches on almost all aspects of life in all developed and developing societies. For this reason, the
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paper herein gives an overview of electrical energy consumption per capita, residential electrical energy consumption in the world as a whole, and residential electrical energy consumption in five specific countries, as shown in Fig. 3. The five countries were selected based on their shares of electrical energy per capita, which is directly related to individual incomes and climate conditions, which can influence electricity consumption. Consumption per capita is the common measure of the energy demand. Per capita energy consumption varies from country to country, and, within a country, it varies from region to region, depending on the level of urbanization. Suthuye and Meyers [5] showed that the per capita energy consumption is influenced by the growth in household income, which allows people to buy devices that use more energy, such as refrigerators, water heaters, and air conditioning. Also, the consumption of energy in productive activities enables growth in income, because workers and businesses are able to use power-driven machinery, which makes them more productive. It is clear from Fig. 3 that four countries, excluding India, are above the world average in both per capita electrical consumption and the percentage of the consumption used by the residential sector. This can be explained as being due to the variation in modernization and lifestyle between India and the other four countries. However, the residential sector share from the total electricity consumed in Saudi Arabia is significant. This is because Saudi Arabia is totally dependent on its major national income energy resources (oil and gas) to produce electricity [6]. Air conditioning is the suspected factor for the immoderate electricity consumption by the residential sector in Saudi Arabia [7]. To prove how the residential sector is contributing to the extensive use of electricity for air conditioning applications, one such country, Kuwait, was selected to undergo further analysis.
Figure 3:
The percentage of residential electrical consumption nationally and per capita consumption in the world and five countries, based on official annual statistics [6].
3 Hot climate country with high reliance on oil: a case study of Kuwait
Kuwait has harsh outside climate conditions with average ambient temperature of around 45C during the summer months [8], which requires the use of air conditioning systems from April through October. Buildings in Kuwait are subject to high ambient air temperatures and to strong solar radiation, which reaches as high as 940 W/m2 on a horizontal surface in the summer [9]. Fig. 4 shows the variation of dry bulb temperature on a hot summer day.
Figure 4:
Variation of dry-bulb temperature on a hot summer day in Kuwait [8].
Electrical energy in Kuwait is generated by conventional steam power plants, which depend primarily on fuel oil. Continued use of the current power plant technology that depends extensively on Kuwait oil will have severe adverse impacts on the countrys economy, considering that oil is the major source of national income. Darwish et al. [10] conducted a study for the local consumption of Kuwaits oil for power generation and water desalination which indicated that in about 30 years, the total oil production may not be enough to provide fresh drinking water for people and allow them to live in air-conditioned spaces. In light of the facts about factors that affect energy consumption in the world in general, and in hot countries in particular, in this paper we have proposed a simple technique to determine the significant factor that affects electrical energy consumption in hot climates. Using Kuwait as an example, the proposed technique was used to analyze the statistics related to national annual electrical energy consumption. The first step was to obtain the maximum and minimum monthly electrical energy consumption in Kuwait using the annual electrical statistical book for the year 2006 [11], as shown in Fig. 5. Air conditioning in the Kuwaiti residential sector is from the beginning of April to the end of October [12]. Moreover, according to our observation, no heating is required during the second half of February and March. Now, based on the maximum and minimum electrical demands obtained from Fig. 5, the estimation of the suspected electrical energy required for operating airconditioning systems during peak usage days in the summer can be made by
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Figure 5:
Monthly maximum and minimum electrical energy demand in Kuwait in 2006.
taking the difference between maximum and minimum demands during the year. According to Fig. 5, the minimum system demand was about 2710 MWe at 14:00 hours on February 25, 2006 [11]. As we mentioned earlier, the lowest demand was in February because the temperature was relatively moderate and no heating or cooling systems were required during this month. Also, most of the lighting systems in the buildings and on the streets are switched off at this hour (14:00). The maximum demand was 8900 MWe, and it occurred at 15:30 on July 26, 2006, at which time the highest outside temperature for the year occurred [11]. Consequently, the difference between the minimum demand and the maximum demand was 6190 MWe, which amounts to about 69.5% of the total energy generated at the maximum demand in the year. The difference herein is expected due to the operation of air-conditioning systems in all buildings in Kuwait. Yet, to verify the share of residential sector air conditioning, we must know the percentage of residential buildings among all buildings types in Kuwait. Residential buildings represent about 84% of all buildings in Kuwait [11]. Using the percentage obtained on the national level for the energy consumption attributed to air-conditioning, i.e., 69.5%, it can be said that residential airconditioners consume 58.4% of the total electrical energy delivered by power plants at peak usage time on a hot summer day in Kuwait.
4 Proposing efficient solution for residential cooling: proper directional orientation and grouping of houses
Directional orientation of buildings is a low or zero-cost measure that can reduce the cooling load due to solar radiation, as indicated by Harvey [13]. Several studies have suggested measures to control the energy demand resulting from residential air conditioning in Kuwait. Examples include sinking buildings into the ground by Ben Nakhi and Elshiaty [14], retrofitting energy conservation measures to old buildings by Al-Ragom [15], and exploring the cooling potential

of earth-air heat exchangers by Al-Ajmi et al. [12]. But, no previous attempts have been made to assess the energy-saving benefits of appropriate directional orientation and grouping of houses in Kuwait. The work presented here estimates the effect on cooling load of four different arrangements for new houses, and the implications for electricity supply and CO2 emissions. The governments Public Authority for Housing Welfare (PAHW) in Kuwait has planned to build 19568 houses during the years 2011 to 2016 [16]. The houses to be constructed are all two-storey houses with floor area of 400 m2. For this type of house, government policy allows renovation loans for owners to expand and improve their houses. The energy demand associated with the consequences of this policy is a major challenge for the country. We assume that the prevailing renovation and expansion practices associated with the governments residential loans policy will continue for future houses. These houses are built according to the Energy Code of Practice in terms of building envelope thermal resistance, the sizes of windows, the type of glazing, the power density of lighting, and the power rating for air conditioners [17]. One of the present authors conducted a short survey of renovated PAHW houses. It was found that it is normal for the occupiers to add a third storey, that the renovated houses are typically rectangular in shape, and that they are fully air conditioned using a central air-conditioning system with electrically powered direct expansion chiller. Fig. 6 shows a typical renovated house. This renovated house type is used to predict the cooling load and electrical energy requirements of future houses.
Figure 6:
Example of a renovated house in Kuwait.
Typical orientation and grouping of the houses was obtained from images published on Google Earth [18]. Fig. 7 shows four cases of directional orientations and grouping: (1) single block facing east-west; (2) single block north-south; (3) double block east-west; and (4) double block north-south. Based on Fig. 7, this study considers blocks of six houses arranged in the four common directional orientation and grouping cases, as shown in Fig. 8. The calculation of cooling loads was done using the DesignBuilder simulation program which has an interface with the popular DOE EnergyPlus simulation
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Figure 7:
Common arrangements and orientations of Kuwaiti houses [18].
Figure 8:
Houses arrangements and orientations used in this study.
engine [19]. DesignBuilder successfully passed the Building Thermal Envelope and Fabric Load Tests established by an ANSI/ASHRAE Standard [20]. A key input in cooling load calculations is the climate data for the area where the building is or will be built. DesignBuilder building simulation software provides ready access to official hourly weather files for 4429 locations in the world, including Kuwait [19]. The characteristics of the typical renovated house in Kuwait and the input data pertinent to the simulation are listed in Table 1. The specifications presented in Table 1 were taken from the Energy Code of Practice for houses in Kuwait, and the operation schedules for the lighting, internal blinds and equipment loads were based on our observations of a number of typical Kuwaiti houses. The same simulation input data was used for all the houses in order to measure the sensitivity of the cooling load to their directional orientation and grouping. Joseph and Sam [21] indicated that fixing all the input data except the one parameter to be analyzed is referred to as sensitivity analysis; this technique can help building designers and decision makers evaluate the thermal design of a building. The differences in simulation results can be attributed to changing the studied parameter, as recommended by Spitler et al. [22].

Table 1:
Parameter Plan shape Number of storeys Floor-to-floor height Floor dimensions Wall area of one floor Window area Type of window glass Window blinds Wall U-value Roof U-value People load Lighting load Lighting schedule Equipment load Equipment schedule Infiltration Thermostat setting
Simulation input data for each house.

Detail Rectangular 3 4m 18 m x 22 m (approximately 400 m2) 315.4 m2 , internal wall area 30% of the wall area, uniformly distributed 6-mm thick, double glazed, clear and reflective glass U-value (3.38 W/m2-K) Internal blind closed daily between 12 noon - 11 p.m. 0.568 W/m2-K 0.397 W/m2-K 10 persons; 110 Watt/person 10 W/m2, fluorescent lights 12 noon - 11 p.m. daily with a diversity factor of 70% 12 W/m2 for ground floor and 5 W/m2 for upper floors Ground floor: Weekdays: 7 a.m. 9 a.m. and 4 p.m. 11 p.m.; Weekends: 7 a.m. 11 p.m. Upper Floor: 4 p.m. 11 p.m. daily 0.5 air change per hour 24C and 50% RH
To estimate the annual electrical energy consumption (Eannual), the annual cooling load (Qannual) was multiplied by the allowable power rating (PR) for residential air conditioning from the Energy Code of Practice, i.e. 1.7 kW/RT or 0.4834 kWe/kWr (1 RT = refrigeration ton, 1 RT = 3.517 kW refrigeration). This power rating is for the direct-expansion air conditioning systems that are commonly used in the residential sector in Kuwait. Annual electrical energy consumption was obtained from the following expression: Eannual = Qannual * PR (1)
Hajiah [23] indicated that conventional power plants in Kuwait emit 0.72 kg of CO2 for every kWh of electricity produced. The amount of annual electrical energy was used to estimate the associated CO2 as follows: CO2 Emissions = Eannual * 0.72 (2)
Estimated savings in electrical energy production cost was based on the net cost to the government, which is $ US 0.09/kWh [24]: Electricity Production Cost=Eannual* $US 0.09/kWh (3)
Electrical supply capital cost was estimated based on the peak cooling load (PL) for each case. The peak cooling load was multiplied by the allowed power
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rating (PR) to convert it to electrical load, then this was multiplied by the capital cost of conventional power plant in Kuwait, which is $ US 1500/kWe [25]. The calculation was performed as shown: Electrical Supply Capital Cost = PL* PR * $ US 1500/kWe (4)
The 19568 future PAHW houses are equivalent to approximately 3621 blocks of six houses. The results from each simulation case were multiplied by 3261 to estimate the results for the future houses. The peak cooling load would give the first indication about any promising alternative for the four cases studied. The simulation results for the four simulated blocks showed that the single block east-west case, case (1), has the largest peak cooling load of the four cases. The cooling-load profile for the four simulated cases during the peak day, as a percentage of the peak cooling load for the single block east-west case, case (1), is shown in Fig. 9.
100 90 Cooling Load Percentage (%) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Time (hours) Single Block E-W Single Block N-S Double Block E-W Double Block N-S
Figure 9:
Peak day cooling load profile for the four simulated cases as a percentage of peak load that resulted for case (1).
As can be seen in Fig. 9, the single block east-west case has the largest peak cooling load. This is followed by the double block east-west case, i.e., case (3). The north-south cases have lower cooling load values compared to the east-west cases, and the lowest among the four cases is the single block north-south case, i.e., case (2). The largest peak cooling load is 6.6% greater than the lowest, which is a fairly small difference. The peak cooling load is highest for the single block facing east-west, because it has a large solar gain on its west facade in the afternoon, when the outside air temperature is high. The results obtained by equations (1) to (4) for the four cases are listed in Table 2. For better understanding for the comparison, Table 3 shows the anticipated savings from each case. The savings shown compared to the average of the four cases (this is equivalent to assuming that the future houses will be distributed equally between the four orientations and grouping arrangements).

Table 2: Type Peak electrical load Electrical supply capital cost Annual electrical energy Annual generation cost to government Annual CO2 emissions Table 3: Unit MWe $ US million GWhe $US million per year kilotons per year Results for the 19568 houses. Case 1 693 Case 2 645 Case 3 670 Case 4 659 Average 667
1,040
967
1,004
988
1,000
1,593
1,554
1,565
1,563
1,568.7
143.4
139.8
140.7
140.6
141.2
1,150
1,120
1,130
1,125
1,131
Anticipated savings for the future 19568 houses based on the results obtained from Table 2. Unit $ US million GWhe/Year $US million/year kilotons per year Case 1 -40 -24.3 -2.2 Case 2 33 15 1.35 Case 3 -4 3.7 0.5 Case 4 12 5.7 0.6
Saving Electrical supply capital cost Annual electrical energy Annual electrical generation cost to government Reduction in annual CO2 emissions
-19
11
1.76
4.1
Note: the (-) sign indicates increased costs and emissions. Table 4 shows twenty-year projected savings for each case, excluding the single block east-west case due to the reasons specified earlier. The estimated savings presented in Table 4 are based on the savings resulted from the average of the four cases presented earlier in Table 3. As can be seen from Table 4, the single block north-south case would achieve significant savings among other cases. Although case 3 did not achieve saving in the electrical energy capital cost, it was introduced in the projected savings because it achieved savings in the annual electrical energy consumption.
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Table 4:
Twenty-year projection of the expected savings for the future 19568 houses. Savings in Electrical Supply Capital Cost (million $ US Savings in Electricity Production Cost in (million $ US) Total Savings (million $ US) 60 6 24 CO2 Equivalent to Seasonal Electricity Savings (kiloton) 222 35.2 82
Case
Case 2 33 27 Case 3 -4 10 Case 4 12 12 Note: the (-) sign indicates increased costs.
5 Conclusion
Fossil fuels, especially oil, are an important global energy resource. The extensive usage of global energy resources has negative impacts on all aspects of life. The paper indicated that there is a direct relationship between residential energy consumption and consumption per capita. Hot weather was also found to be a significant factor for energy consumption in countries that have harsh summer conditions and totally dependent on valuable energy resources to generate electricity. In conjunction with these facts, Kuwait was selected for additional analysis of its electrical energy usage. The findings proved that residential cooling is the significant factor for electricity in Kuwait. The authors proposed a unified orientation and grouping style for future houses as a zero cost energy conservation measure. The proposed orientation and grouping style of houses can reduce solar gain; which therefore and can lead to significant savings in energy and CO2 emissions.
References
[1] Renewables; Renewable Energy Network for the first twenty one century, Global Status Report, 2007. [2] International Energy Administration (IEA); Key World Energy Statistics, 2007. [3] International Energy Administration (IEA), World Annual Statistics, 2006 [4] Dara ORourke and Sarah Connolly; Annual Reviews Environ. Resources, Volume 28, pp. 587617, 2003. [5] Suthuye and Meyers; Energy use in the cities of the developed countries. Annual Reviews. Emrgjs, volume10, pp.109-33, 1985. [6] International Energy Administration (IEA), World Annual Statistics, 2006. [7] I. Dincer, M. M. Hussain and I. Al-Zaharnah, Analysis of sectoral energy and exergy use of Saudi Arabia, International journal of energy research, Int. J. Energy Res. 2004; 28:205243 (DOI: 10.1002/er.962).

[8] Kuwait International Airport, Climatological summaries year19621982, Meteorological Department climatological division; State of Kuwait, 1983. [9] T.R. Allison, Heat gains in Kuwait Buildings, a simplified Code, Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, (KISR) -PPI/110 ENG-PT-G-7931, 1979. [10] Darwish M.A., Al-Awadhib and A.M. Darwish, Energy and water in Kuwait Part I. A sustainability view point, Desalination 225 (2008) 341355. [11] Ministry of Electricity and Water (MEW); Statistical year book, 2007. [12] Al-Ajmi, F., Loveday, L.D., Hanby, V., 2006. The cooling potential of earthair heat exchangers for domestic buildings in a desert climate, Building and Environment 41, 235-244. [13] Harvey Harvey, L.D.D. 2006. A Handbook on Low-Energy Buildings and District-Energy Systems: Fundamentals, Techniques and Examples. EarthScan, London, 701 pages. [14] Ben-Nakhi, A.E., and El Shiaty, R.M., 2009. Thermal impact of sinking residential buildings in hot regions- Kuwait as a case study, Energy Technology and Policy Vol.7 No.1, 3-17. [15] Al-Ragom, F., 2003. Retrofitting residential buildings in hot and arid climates, Energy Conservation and Management 44, 2309-2319. [16] PAWE 2008 PAHW, Public Authority for Housing Welfare, 2010. Five year strategic plan (2011-2016), new residential projects, Kuwait. [17] MEW, 1983. Ministry of Electricity and Water. Energy Code of Practice, Buildings characteristics, Kuwait. [18] Google earth, 2009. www.earth.google.com , Image2009 Digital Glob, image date Jan. 2006, accessed in 4-5-2009. [19] DesignBuilder Documentation, 2006. DesignBuilder User Manual, Version 1.2, DesignBuilder Software Limited, UK. [20] ASHRAE, 2006. Building Thermal Envelope and Fabric Test from ANSI/ASHRAE Standard, ASHRAE 140 Envelop Test, www.cetteg.fr/fichiers/ansi_ashrae.pdf [21] Joseph, C.L. and Sam, C.M., 1996. Sensitivity analysis of energy performance of office, Buildings and Environment 31, 2739. [22] Spitler, J.D., Fisher, D.E., Zietlow, D.C., 1989. A primer on the use of influence coefficients in building simulation, Proceedings of Building Simulation89 Conference, pp. 299-304, Vancouver. [23] Hajiah, A. Energy conservation program in Kuwait, a local prospective, proceedings of fifteenth symposium on improving building systems in hot and humid climates, Orlando, FL, July 24-26, 2006. [24] Al-Mutairi, A., 2009. Manager Technical Office in Ministry of Electricity and Water, Kuwait, Private Communication. [25] Darwish, M. A., 2008. Building air conditioning system using fuel cell: Case study for Kuwait, Applied Thermal Engineering 27, 2869-2876.
871
Enhanced aquifer thermal energy storage for cooling and heating of Shinshu University building using a nested well system
A. Tomigashi & K. Fujinawa
Department of Civil Engineering, Shinshu University, Japan
Abstract
An enhanced aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) is proposed in this paper in order to provide cooling and heating energy from groundwater to an airconditioning system of a building at Shinshu University. By adopting the enhanced ATES, a nested well system composed of withdrawal and injection wells is under construction in which an upper unconfined aquifer is used to withdraw, inject and store cooling water, and an underlying confined aquifer is used for heating water. A variety of field tests including all-core boring, electrical logging, thermal logging, pumping tests and thermal and salt-water tracer tests has been performed to identify hydrogeologic and thermal properties of the aquifer. Numerical simulations were then conducted by using SWATER (Subsurface Water and Thermal Energy Resources), which is a program for simulating three-dimensional water flow and heat transport in aquifer systems. The numerical results showed that the enhanced ATES is superior to the conventional ATES in terms of recovered thermal energy. Keywords: enhanced aquifer thermal energy storage, nested well system, field tests, control of groundwater flow and heat transport, numerical simulation.
Introduction
Underground space provides a large isolated storage volume of water for thermal energy. Underground Thermal Energy Storage (UTES) technologies use the capacity of this volume to store thermal energy for seasonal application. Among UTES, Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) and Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) are widely used techniques. An ATES system uses groundwater as the medium of heat transfer between an external source and the aquifer while

a BTES system delivers or extracts heat and cold from the underground by means of circulation of a fluid in a U-tube. Wherever groundwater is abundant, ATES can provide an attractive sustainable energy for cooling and heating various facilities. For example, the Matsumoto basin in Nagano Pref. stores about 10 billion m3 of groundwater. The delivery or extraction of thermal energy by 5C from the groundwater can cool and heat spaces with the energy of 13 GWt. In a UTES system, the stored cold is pumped back and the waste heat from the cooling process is stored in a warm zone, and vice versa. However, the stored heat or cold may be transported by flowing groundwater and dissipate due to dispersion if groundwater flow and heat transport is not properly controlled. The basic idea of an enhanced ATES is to establish a withdrawal/recharge well system along a groundwater flow line and to control groundwater flow by adjusting the hydraulic gradient by means of pumping and injection. This system enables maximized heat and cold recovery by optimizing the withdrawal and injection rates at the nested wells. Table 1 summarises the advantages and the disadvantages of the conventional and the enhanced ATES together with BTES. Although special care must be taken with respect to land subsidence and clogging of sediment pores, the enhanced ATES has a great advantage over the others in terms of energy output per borehole, recovery of stored thermal energy and safety against thermal and chemical pollution of groundwater. Besides all of these advantages, the enhanced ATES further assures that the efficiency of the system can be gradually improved as the system operation is continued. In the fiscal year of 2010, a pilot project of the enhanced ATES was initiated with the financial support of the Japanese New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization at the Nagano campus of Shinshu University. This paper shows how the system is designed and how the efficiency of ATES is improved by using numerical simulation along with input data acquired by field tests. Table 1: Features of various UTES.
Evaluation (B) (A1) (A2) Energy output per borehole Recovery of stored thermal energy Possible Impact on geo-environment (A1),(A2): land subsidence Safety against thermal pollution (B),(A1): uncontrolled thermal plume Safety against groundwater pollution (B): leakage of antifreeze fluid Actual performance in Japan (A2): emerging technology System maintenance (A1),(A2): clogging of sediment pores (B) BTES, (A1) conventional ATES, (A2) enhanced ATES: excellent, medium, poor
Field investigation of hydrogeology and groundwater
The Nagano Campus of Shinshu University is located in the central part of the Nagano basin that is formed by the sediments of the Sai River and the Sunobana River as shown in Figure 1. The temperature of the area rises beyond 30C more than 50 days a year and goes below zero 100 days a year with an average
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accumulated snowfall of 170 cm. Thus, cooling during summer and heating during winter are a common practice in this area. This means that there is a great potential to shift energy for cooling and heating from fossil fuels to a renewable thermal energy produced by ATES. The objective of the pilot project that started at the Shinshu University campus is to demonstrate the usefulness of a new system of the enhanced ATES.
Nagano city
Figure 1: Location of the pilot project site at Shinshu University The geologic structure of the site was investigated by sampling a boring core from a 75 m deep borehole and performing an electrical logging using an 80 m deep borehole. Figure 2 illustrates the results which show that under the surficial deposit of clay, a layer 8 m thick, lies an unconfined aquifer 32 m in height, which is underlain by a clay layer 3 m thick. A confined aquifer 21 m in height is further deposited below the clay layer. Underneath this is another clay layer 1 m thick below which lies a third aquifer. Each aquifer, composed of sand and gravel, is named aquifer 1, 2, and 3 from the top to the bottom. A multi-screened well was installed in borehole B while three observation wells for each aquifer were constructed 3.8 m apart from borehole B. The observation wells were named A1 for aquifer 1, A2 for aquifer 2 and A3 for Aquifer 3. Sensors for measuring pore pressure, temperature and electrical conductivity were installed at each observation well. Monitored hydraulic heads show a tendency that the head in aquifer 1 is 20 cm higher than that of aquifer 2 and 50 cm higher than that of aquifer 3. The direction and the velocity of groundwater flow in the aquifers were investigated at each observation well by means of multi-thermosensor equipment. The observed result indicates that the directions and the velocities of the flow in aquifers 1~3 are SSE with 3.310-3cm/sec, SE with 6.410-3cm/sec and SSW with 0.4210-3cm/sec, respectively.
Figure 2: Lithology and the result of electrical logging for the pilot project site. Pumping tests for each aquifer were performed using well B as a pumping well and wells A1~A3 as observation wells. The evaluated hydraulic conductivities of aquifers 1, 2 and 3 are 2.2810-2cm/sec, 1.8110-2cm/sec, 2.0710-1cm/sec, respectively. A thermal logging was also conducted to investigate a vertical profile of groundwater temperature. It was revealed that the temperature distribution was almost constant and was around 14C throughout each of the layers, except in aquifer 2 where the temperature was higher by 0.3C. Clogging of sediment pores during injection of pumped groundwater into aquifers is a major obstacle to ATES. The main causes of the clogging are attributed to chemical precipitation, air-bubble formation and transport of fine soil particles through sediment pores of aquifers. Thus, chemical composition of the groundwater was investigated and the results are shown in Table 2. The observed groundwater quality suggests that the pilot project should take care of the clogging by introducing a water quality control system using ion exchange resin and de-aeration. Subsurface, heat is transferred by heat conduction together with forced and natural convection of groundwater flow while dissipating due to dispersion. In order to investigate the response of the groundwater system against the stress of alien substances and that of heat, and eventually to evaluate dispersivity, thermal conductivity and heat capacity, two types of tracer tests using salt water and cold water were performed. Figure 3 shows a schematic diagram of the tracer tests conducted for aquifer 2. Salt water or cold water in a storage tank was injected
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into borehole B, and electrical conductance (EC), temperature (T), and hydraulic head (H) were monitored at four sensor locations as illustrated in Figure 3. Sensor S1 and S2 were installed in the observation well A2 to measure EC, T and H. Hydraulic head was monitored at borehole B while EC and T were monitored in the storage tank as well. Table 2:
Analysis item Fe Soluble Fe Mn Ca Mg
Quality of groundwater in each aquifer

Aquifer1 0.05 mg/L 0.06 mg/L 0.7 mg/L 20 mg/L 6.7 mg/L Aquifer2 1.1 mg/L 0.02 mg/L 0.82 mg/L 23 mg/L 7.7 mg/L Aquifer3 0.65 mg/L 0.03 mg/L 1.2 mg/L 21 mg/L 8.8 mg/L
Figure 3: A schematic diagram of tracer tests for aquifer 2. The results of the tracer tests, where the difference of hydraulic head in borehole B from A2 was 40 cm, are shown in terms of relative concentration and temperature in Figure 4. The EC of the salt water injected was 2,425 mS/m and the peak concentrations at the depth of 49 m and 60 m below ground level in borehole A2 were 389.4 mS/m and 503.7 mS/m, respectively. The peak concentrations at the depth of 49 m and 60 m emerged after 66 min and 51 min from the start of salt water injection, respectively. The injection of cold water ranging from 2.0~3.8C into aquifer 2 (14.2C) lasted 480 min. The temperature at the depth of 49 m below ground level in borehole A2 went down by 0.6C 662 min after the start of the cold water injection. It is interesting to note that there was no change in the temperature at the depth of 60 m in borehole A2.

Based on the results of these tracer tests, parameters for numerical simulation such as longitudinal and transverse dispersivity, thermal conductivity and heat capacity can be evaluated by solving inverse problems. The procedure of the inverse problems and results will be discussed elsewhere.
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Figure 4: Results of tracer tests (left: salt water, right: cold water).
System design of the enhanced ATES
In accordance with the field investigations mentioned in the previous section, an enhanced ATES system was designed to supply cooling and heating groundwater to an air-conditioning system for three lecture rooms of a Shinshu University building. Figure 5 shows a plan view of the campus and Figure 6 illustrates the nested wells for pumping and injecting groundwater. Wells B, C1, C2, D1 and D2 are used for withdrawal or injection for controlling groundwater flow so that stored cold and heat can be recovered as much as possible. Cold water is designed to be stored in aquifer 1 and warm water in aquifer 2. Since natural groundwater is supposed to flow from NW to SE, C1 and C2 are planned to be used for injection, and D1 and D2 for recovery, so that hydraulic gradient is reduced accordingly. An operational condition of air conditioning for the pilot project is shown in Table 3. The optimized control of groundwater flow can be achieved with the aid of numerical simulation.
Observation temperature at A2
Injection temperature at B
Injection well (B) Observation well (A2: GL-49m) Observation well (A2: GL-60m)
1.5
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12.5
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Figure 5: An enhanced ATES system for a Shinshu University building.
Figure 6: Nested wells for pumping and injecting groundwater. Table 3:

Operation mode Heating Suspend Cooling Suspend date 11/1-4/30 5/1-5/31 6/1-9/30 10/1-10/31
Operation for air-conditioning.

Pumping / Injection rate (L/day) (L/min) 72,000 50.0 72,000 50.0 Injection water temperature 5C const. 25C const. -
Period number of days 180 31 122 31
Numerical simulation of the enhanced ATES
In order to facilitate an optimal design of the enhanced ATES, a numerical simulation program, SWATER3di (Subsurface Water and Thermal Energy Resources in three dimension), was developed. SWATER is based on a program, SIFEC (Saltwater Intrusion by Finite Element and Characteristics: Fujinawa et al [1]), for variable-density, saturated-unsaturated, coupled flow and solute transport except that SWATER is a three dimensional version using triangular prism elements and modified to simulate heat transport instead of mass transport. The program was verified by comparing its accuracy with experimental results and other numerical results conducted by Fujinawa [2]. The governing equations and auxiliary formulas adopted in SWATER are given in the appendix. Figure 7 shows the finite element mesh used to simulate groundwater flow and heat transport at the pilot project site. The number of nodes is 12,852, and the number of elements 23,712. The dimension of the model is 400m long, 100m wide and 64.7m deep.
Number of node 12,852 Number of element 23,712 Groundwater flow direction
400m
clay sand gravel
100m
Figure 7: 3D finite element mesh for the pilot project site. The robust evaluation of all the hydrogeologic and thermal parameters is now under way. For an interim simulation, these parameters are temporally fixed using data from the field investigations and from values reported in the literature for the fields similar to the pilot project site. Table 4 shows the parameters used in the numerical simulation. These parameters are noted in the appendix along with governing equations describing saturated-unsaturated flow and heat transport in an aquifer system. The boundary conditions for subsurface water flow were assigned so that the hydraulic gradient of natural groundwater flow is equal to 1/100. The top, bottom and side boundaries were treated as an impervious boundary. As for initial conditions, total head was interpolated in accordance with the hydraulic gradient with that of aquifer 1 20 cm higher than that of aquifer 2. A constant temperature of 14.0C was assigned at the upstream boundary, while the top, bottom, side and downstream boundaries were treated as an insulated boundary. Initial groundwater temperature was assumed to be 14C throughout the analytical domain.
64.7m
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The rate of groundwater withdrawal for heating and cooling was 72m3/day. And, the same amount of water pumped from an aquifer was injected into another aquifer. It was assumed that thermal energy is produced so that cooling makes pumped water 25C and heating makes it 5C. The water discharged after the use of air-conditioning is in turn injected into the aquifer different from the pumped one with the relevant temperature. Table 4: Parameters used for numerical analysis.
m/hr m/hr m/hr /m m m J/m3K J/m3K J/m3K W/mK W/mK W/mK
Saturated hydraulic conductivity at a reference temperature of 4C Clay Kr 0.00036 Sand gravel (Aquifer 1) Kr 0.821 Sand gravel (Aquifer 2) Kr 0.652 Porosity 0.200 Saturated water content 0.200 s Residual water content 0.100 r Parameter of van Genuchten eq. 5.270 2.138 1.0 Longitudinal dispersivity L 0.1 Transverse dispersivity T Volumetric heat capacity of Solid phase (C)s 528.00 Water phase (C)w 1160.00 Air phase (C)a 0.336 Heat conductivity of 0.909 Solid phase s Water phase 0.594 w Air phase 0.024 a
Two types of simulation for the conventional and the enhanced ATES were performed. The operational condition for both types is the same as shown in Table 3. However, the enhanced ATES withdraws 144 m3/day from well C1 or C2 and injects the same amount of water into well D2 or D1 to control groundwater flow. The temperature of the injected water is made equal to the average temperature of the pumped groundwater. Figure 8 shows the simulated results for the conventional and the enhanced ATES. The profiles of groundwater temperature were illustrated for one-cyclic year. The aquitard separating aquifer 1 from aquifer 2 plays an important role in preventing a mixture of cold and warm water in the aquifer system. It is confirmed from the figure that the central temperature in the cold plume for the enhanced ATES is lower than that for the conventional ATES, and that in the warm plume for the enhanced ATES, is higher than that for the conventional ATES. In terms of the recovery of stored thermal energy, the enhanced ATES was superior to the conventional ATES. To show the efficiency of thermal energy storage, the temporal change in the average temperature of pumped groundwater is illustrated in Figure 9. During the cooling season, colder groundwater is recovered when the enhanced ATES is used, compared with the conventional ATES. Although chilled groundwater is recovered during the initial stage of the heating season, warmer groundwater, compared with the conventional ATES, is recovered as a whole when the enhanced ATES is used. The efficiency of the enhanced ATES can be optimized
Figure 8: Simulated results of groundwater temperature profile. by using the nested well system and adjusting the rate and the period of pumping and injection.
Conclusion
As a new technology for utilizing renewable energy with a great potential for cooling and heating buildings and houses and for taking over fossil fuels, an enhanced aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) is proposed in this paper. The basic concept of the enhanced ATES is based on the modification of the conventional ATES so that the possible transport of cold and heat stored in aquifer systems be controlled to maximize its recovery. To demonstrate the efficiency of the technology, a pilot project was launched at the campus of

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Average temperature of pumped gruoundwater ()
Initial condition (14) Conventional ATES Enhanced ATES Cooling
Heating
Heating (2nd cycle) 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Elapsed time (months)
Figure 9: Average temperature of pumped groundwater. Shinshu University. Hydrogeologic and thermal properties of the site were investigated by conducting various field tests including all-core boring, electrical logging, thermal logging, pumping tests and thermal and salt-water tracer tests. It was revealed that the aquitard separating unconfined aquifer from confined aquifer can play an important role in preventing a mixture of cold and warm water in the aquifer system. A nested well system composed of withdrawal, injection and monitor wells was then designed. Based on the data acquired by the field tests, numerical simulations were performed to compare the efficiency of the enhanced ATES with the conventional ATES. The numerical results showed that the enhanced ATES is superior to the conventional ATES in terms of recovery of the stored thermal energy. The use of numerical simulation tools such as SWATER makes it possible to design an optimal system depending on field conditions and characteristics of facilities to be air-conditioned.
Acknowledgement
This research has been financially supported by the Japanese New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization.
Appendix
The governing equation for flow of water in saturated-unsaturated zone with variable-density fluid is given by
nq r K r h h (1) z )} Qi i ( S e S s r C s r ) S e (hr r t t t i 1 where and r are the density of water; and r are the dynamic viscosity of freshwater; S e is the fractional effective water saturation; S s is the specific storage; hr is the pressure head in terms of water of a reference temperature; C s ( S e hr ) is the soil water capacity; is the fractional porosity; K r is the hydraulic conductivity in terms of water of a reference temperature; Qi is the

withdrawal rate of a pumping well i ; i is the Dirac delta function for the pumping or injection well; z is the upward vertical coordinate. For unsaturated porous media, van Genuchten [3] provided functional relations for the parameters Se and Kr in Equation (1) as follows: r 1 1 Se , ( 1 ) (2) s r (1 h ) r
f 1/ K r K rs S e1 / 2 (3) 1 1 S e where , s and r are the volumetric water content (VWC), the saturated VWC, and the residual VWC, respectively; and are the characteristic constants of soil to be evaluated from experiments; K rs is the saturated hydraulic conductivity in terms of a reference temperature. The governing equation for heat transport in the saturated-unsaturated zone is given by T (4) ( T ) ( C ) w ( vT ) ( C ) t where T is temperature; ( C ) w is the volumetric heat capacity of water phase. Assigning ( C ) s of the volumetric heat capacity of solid phase and ( C ) a of the volumetric heat capacity of air phase, the bulk volumetric heat capacity ( C ) is calculated by ( C ) S ( C ) w (1 S )( C ) a (1 )( C ) s (5) The tensor element of is given by ij ed (md ) ij ( C ) Dij (6) where ed and md are the bulk thermal conductivity and the mechanical thermal dispersivity; Dij is the hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient. And the dispersion tensor is defined by Dij ijkm v k v m / v e (7) ijkm T ij km ( L T )( ik jm im jk ) / 2
where v is the average velocity; v k and v m are the velocity components of two coordinate directions, k and m ; ij is the Kronecker Delta; e is the bulk thermal diffusivity; L is the longitudinal dispersivity; T is the transverse dispersivity.
References
[1] Fujinawa , K., Iba, T., Fujihara, Y., & Watanabe, T., Modeling interaction of fluid and salt in an aquifer/ lagoon system, Ground Water, 47(1), pp. 35-48, 2009. [2] Fujinawa, K., Theoretical studies on heat transfer in saturated porous media with thermal convection. Trans. Japanese Society of Irrigation, Drainage, and Reclamation Eng., 158, pp. 47-56, 1992. [3] van Genuchten, M.TH., A closed-form equation for predicting the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated soils. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 44, pp. 892-898, 1980.
883
Modeling energy savings in low income residencies

C. G. Morales & A. J. Malav
PREC - Puerto Rico Energy Center, Universidad del Turabo, Gurabo, Puerto Rico
Abstract
We evaluate the energy efficiency corresponding to the construction of low income residences in Puerto Rico. These units are characterized by areas of 800 ft2, 3 bedrooms, one bathroom, reception room, dining room and kitchen. We model residences built under the latest International Energy Conservation Code (IECC 2009) included in recent American Recovery and reinvestment Act legislation, proposing changes in the materials used in their constructions. Our models compare: a) the case of building with typical materials and construction practices used in Puerto Rico, with b) the case where materials and techniques recommended by the new code are used. We show that the use of our modified specifications results in a monthly electrical energy saving of $54 for flat roof constructions (39% saving), and a $60 (41% saving), monthly saving for the case of constructions with gabled roofs. We use two computer models: a) a design model for the house construction, b) the public domain program Energy available from the US department of energy. We use climate conditions corresponding to the region near the city of San Juan. Keywords: energy savings, building modelling.
1 Introduction
As part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 Puerto Rico must comply with new buildings regulations. These regulations were designed to minimize energy consumption in all new structures. Their application could have an important impact on construction costs affecting the residential housing industry and the public in general.

The ARRA act includes a disposition for the application of energy conservation standards set by the International Energy Conservation Code in its latest version of 2009 IECC 2009. Under this code Puerto Rico is considered part of zone 1 together with Hawaii, U.S Virgin Islands, Guam, Mariana Islands and a small portion of southeastern Florida. If the IECC 2009 were to be applied directly in Puerto Rico the construction materials and methods would be altered significantly. Such alteration would have a profound impact on the construction costs of the social interest houses (any housing structure with less than 1000 ft2). The Energy Affairs Office and the Home Builders Association of Puerto Rico suggested the need to model energy consumption in structures developed under traditional methods and with the new standards. The results obtained from this study would provide the basis for the energy conservations amendments that would be included in the Puerto Rico building code. Up to the present there was no accurate information on the thermal envelop characteristics of a typical social interest house. In Table 1 is seen the suggested R values or thermal resistance on the different components of the house, before that study P.R. did not have suggested values as a results of no having a complete energy code. Table 1: Suggested thermal resistance values of IECC2009 and Puerto Rico typical values. Suggested R values Fenestration factor Skylight, U factor Ceiling, U Factor Frame Wall, U Factor Mass Wall, U Factor Floor, U Factor Basement Wall, U Factor Craw Space U Factor Table 402.1.3 IECC 2009 1.2 0.75 0.035 0.082 0.197 0.064 0.36 0.477 Suggested values in PR N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
The energy modeling was performed using: 1) drawings software to develop the computerized models and the 2) EnergyPlus a public domain software designed by the US Department of Energy to model energy and water consumption in buildings [3]. The building materials and methods used in Puerto Rico have changed dramatically in the last 100 years. The residential buildings went from wood walls and zinc roofs to an all concrete structure by the 1950s. There were
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multiple reasons for these changes, the main one being the increase in wood prices combined with a strong population growth. Puerto Rico had a building code that has been barely modified since 1950 [5]. In 1997 the Uniform Building Code was adopted and was still in use until the adoption of a new code in 2011. This code was not modified during its implementation. Due to the increase in electricity costs due to the increase in petroleum cost and the awareness of climate change a change in perception on energy consumption was experienced at both the governmental and private sector and subsequently the need for an energy conservation code arose. As a starting point the energy conservation codes of countries and regions with similar weather conditions as Puerto Rico were analyzed as was the case with Hawaiis Energy conservation code. The standards provided in those codes gave us the idea to perform the present simulations that can be of great value in order to establish our own energy code.
2 Simulation description
In humid tropical weather the main factor in the energy consumption of a building is air conditioning system. For our study the residential building was assumed to be either all conditioned (air conditioning system available to all living space) or partially conditioned ( air condition system was available only at the master bedroom). In total 26 simulations were performed, 13 for each air conditioning case. The simulations were performed for two structural cases:
Figure 1:
Flat roof model a. roof height 8ft b. roof height 9ft.
Figure 2:
Gabled roof.
The simulations were made to exactly replicate a typical social interest house in Puerto Rico, which has an area living of 830ft2, including 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, dining room, living room and a kitchen as it can be seen in the house layout figure 3. This design was provided by the Home Builders Association of Puerto Rico and was used as the baseline model. The baseline was used to compare how well different materials and conditions fared against the actual energy consumption at these types of structures.
Figure 3:
Typical social interest house in Puerto Rico.
The baseline properties were as follows: Electrical water heater Incandescent bulbs Appliances; (refrigerator, stove, etc.) Typical construction materials (5in thick concrete walls, paint) The suggested improvements were as follows: Solar water heater Fluorescent bulbs Appliances; (fridge, stove, etc.) Typical construction materials (5in thick concrete walls, paint) and non-typical construction materials (foam, insulators, etc) Besides the construction materials and the number appliances the simulations require inputs based on the activities performed at the house in order to determine the time energy is been consumed. For this reason the typical behavior of a family of 4 members, in which the family members will be active at the house from 3 pm to 11 pm at night and small interval in the mornings during weekdays and at full time during weekends. With this information the software models the energy consumption per day and per hour generated by human activities. In the figure 4 is shown the process to make a complete simulation; the first step is design the house and import on the EnergyPlus software, the second step consist in add all the inputs on IDF Editor Energy Plus. After that you can run the simulation using the launch of EnergyPlus. When the simulation is over you can collect data and analysis all of them. The input information was the electricity cost per kW-hr, the projection factor and the solar heat gain through the windows as seen in table 2.
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Figure 4: Table 2:
Step by step simulation process. Additional data input. Additional Data
Electricity cost : $ 0.224/KW-hr Projection factor (PF) = 0.5 Solar heat gaining factor = 0.75 (obtained from ASHRAE Miami Windows) 2.1 Materials The construction materials used for the simulations are shown in table 3. All the materials used in the simulations are in the market and available in Puerto Rico Each simulation was done using different design combinations of walls, roof and floors as can be seen in table 4. Each case has a distinctive thermal resistance value (R-value). The goal of the simulations is to suggest a thermal envelope for the structure with an R-value of at least 15 m2K/W, which is half the value proposed at the IECC 2009, but accepted by the US department of Energy as a good starting point. The actual R-value for a typical house in Puerto Rico is 0.44. The baseline was selected as the typical social interest house with 5 in concrete walls, roof and floors. The walls have an additional stucco layer. All the other simulations were done by altering the baseline as can be seen in Table 4, where the main modification was the increase of the insulation to the envelope and the change in the construction materials, and in some instances the design of the structure (gabled roofs). The windows were made with thin blades aluminum with a high thermal conductivity and thereby a low thermal resistance that are traditionally called Miami style. The internal loads considered were electrical appliances, illumination and the amount of occupants. Three types of roofs were considered flat roof with 8 ft height, flat roof with 9 ft height and a gabled roof Figure 1 and 2. The baseline was modeled using a electrical water heater, for all other conditions a solar water heater was used.
Table 3: Material Concrete 5 8 (Roof, Wall, Floor)
Materials used for the design of the houses in simulations case. Mechanical properties Rough Conductivity=0.19 4 (W/m-K) Density =2240 (kg/m) Specific heat =921 (J/kg-K) Medium Rough Conductivity =0.153W/m-k Density =6800 kg/m Specific heat =1.63E+02 J/kg-k smooth Conductivity =1.85E+01 w/m-k Density 2.74E+03 =kg/m Specific heat =8.95E+02 J/kg-k Suggested material Paint Coating Mechanical properties Rough Thermal resistance =7.87E-08 mK/W
Wood Doors
Attic acoustic Medium Rough Thermal ceiling resistance =0.054 mk/W Thermal absorbance =0.84 Insulate R-5 Medium Rough Thermal Resistance =8.81E-01 mk/W Thermal Absorbance =0.9
Aluminum (Windows)
Cool Roof
Medium Rough Thermal resistant =2.64E+02 mk/w Thermal Absorbance =0.7 Thickness = 3mm Solar Transmit =0.837
Window Material Glazing Clear
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Table 4: Case A (base) + B+ C*
Cases studied. R -Value R 0.44 R 30 R 15
Material used at roof and walls 1)Concrete 5 2)Paint Coating IECC 2009 1)Cool Roof 2)Concrete 5 3)Paint coating 1)Cool Roof 2)R-5 insulation 3)Concrete 5 4)Paint Coating IECC2009 1) Gabled roof 2)Attic ceiling 1) Gabled roof 2)Cool Roof 3)Attic ceiling 1)Gabled roof 2)NO Attic 1)Cool Roof 2) Gabled roof 3) NO Attic 1)Roof 9 ft 1)Cool Roof 2)Roof 9ft 1)Concrete 5 2)Paint Coating P.R. Energy Code 1)Concrete 5 2)Cool Roof 3)Paint Coating
D*
R 15 R 30 R 0.44 R 15
E* F* G*
H* I*
R 0.44 R - 15 R 0.44 R 15 R-0.44
J* K* L* M*
+ = Electrical water heater. *= Solar water heater. P.R. energy code includes SHGC de .40 and a fenestration value of 1.2.
3 Results
The results of the simulations are shown in Tables 5 and 6. Table 5 shows the results of the house with only one air conditioning unit for the master bedroom; table 6 shows the results of houses with 3 air conditioning units. The results from the simulation are the annual cooling electricity consumption (kW-h), total electricity consumption (kW-h), annual electricity costs and energy costs savings Table 5: Case Annual Cooling Electricity (kW-h) 819.72 557.77 720.20 713.25 554.28 751.21 651.69 803.78 760.29 807.78 709.32 819.72 727.33 Results with one air conditioning unit. Annual Total Electricity (kW-h) 5123.45 4843.23 2882.93 2875.98 2717.01 2913.94 2814.42 2966.51 2923.02 2970.71 2872.05 2997.23 2879.63 Annual Energy Cost ($) 1147.65 1084.88 645.78 644.22 608.61 652.72 630.43 664.50 654.76 665.44 643.34 671.38 645.03 Annual Energy Savings ($) none 62.77 501.88 503.43 539.04 494.93 517.22 483.15 492.90 482.21 504.31 476.27 439.85 Monthly Energy Savings ($) None 5.23 41.82 41.95 44.92 41.24 43.10 40.26 41.07 40.18 42.03 39.69 36.65 Saving % n/a 5.5 47.3 43.87 46.97 43.13 45.0 42.1 42.95 40.18 43.9 41.5 43.8
A B C D E F G H I J K L M
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Table 6: Case Annual Cooling Electricity (kW-h) 2053.52 1058.07 1498.17 1486.17 1051.67 1734.56 1345.36 1958.23 1405.21 1997.23 1477.62 2053.52 1495.35
Results with air conditioning at all living areas. Annual Total Electricity (kW-h) 6803.25 5745.18 4107.34 4094.90 3660.40 4343.29 3954.09 4566.96 4013.93 4605.96 4086.35 4677.03 4100.22 Annual Energy Cost ($) 1523.93 1286.92 920.04 917.26 819.93 972.90 885.72 1023.00 899.12 1031.74 915.34 1047.65 918.45 Annual Energy Savings ($) None 237.01 603.88 606.67 704.00 551.03 638.21 500.93 624.81 492.19 608.59 476.27 605.48 Monthly Energy Savings ($) None 19.75 50.32 50.56 58.67 45.92 53.18 41.74 52.07 41.02 50.72 39.69 50.46 Saving % n/a 15.55 39.63 39.81 46.20 36.16 41.88 32.87 41.00 32.30 39.94 31.25 39.73
A B C D E F G H I J K L M
The results were analyzed also in graphs to see more clearly the comparison between all the cases. Figure 5 shows the annual energy savings for all the cases in terms of dollars. In Figure 6 you can observe the energy savings percents. The Figure 7 shows the house sale price variation, this values was obtained in collaboration with Home Builders Association. The Figure 8 show net benefit from the new design. All of these graphs were prepared with the results obtained from the study.
AnnualSavings
AnnualSavings $800.00 $600.00 $400.00 $200.00 $0.00
Figure 5:
Annual energy savings for the design cases in terms of dollars.
EnergySavingsPercent
60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% Cool Cool IECC Baselin 9fttall Cool Roof Cool Roof IECC Cool Cool
Figure 6:
Energy savings percent obtained by the simulation process.
HouseSalePriceVariation
$25,000.00 $20,000.00 $15,000.00 $10,000.00 $5,000.00 $0.00 Cool Cool 9fttall Cool Roof Cool Roof IECC Cool Cool IECC Baseline SalePrice Figure 7:
Sales price for all cases. This value represents the investment in the new materials added for the constructions.
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NetBenefitfromNew Designs
NetBenefit 50 0 50 100 150 200
Figure 8:
Net benefit obtained from the investment in the new designs.
3.1 Analysis of the results The results obtained were based solely on energy consumption and each modification was compared to both the baseline and case B which was the case when the IECC 2009 standards were applied. For the baseline the yearly energy consumption was 5123.45 kW-hr see Table 5, if the IECC were to be implemented the energy consumption would be reduced by 15%. This considerable reduction is difficult to achieve locally since most of the required materials are uncommon in the construction industry in Puerto Rico. Additionally, the increment in construction costs will affect sale prices and a possible decrease of sales will hurt the construction industry. One of the greatest contributor to the reduction in energy consumption is the use of solar water heater alone represents a total of 2,126 kW-hr or 37% in energy savings. From economic stand point solar water heaters have small Return of Investments (less than 2 years) and can be used on an annual basis in Puerto Rico therefore all the other models were done using this technology. Case G produces the highest energy saving at 45%, this case consists of a gabled roof, the application of insulation at the roof and an attic. The thermal resistance for this configuration is R-15E. The case selected for its energy savings and economic impact was case M which produces 41% in savings. For the simulations when the entire house is conditioned, as seen in Table 6 the baseline model showed an energy consumption of 6803.25 kW-hr. The most efficient case was case G again with energy savings totaling 41% and for the case M savings of 37% were modeled
4 Conclusions
The results of the models used in this work showed possible energy savings that exceeded the savings estimated that the implementation of the IECC 2009 will have. The savings were attained without having to implement the suggested
Baselin IECC Cool Cool IECC Roof Cool Roof Cool 9fttall Cool Cool

thermal resistance value of R-30. Up to a 41% in energy savings was attained with a thermal resistance of R-15. The results from this study were used to develop the new energy standard at the most recent building code for Puerto Rico. We have shown in detail that the use of a solar water heater alone represents a significant energy saving. The recommendations were based also on the economical impact any alteration will have on the sale price. The final recommendation was case M which has the standard 5 in walls and roof, but an insulating reflective material is applied at the roofs thereby increasing the thermal resistance. The economical analysis part of this study was performed in order to validate the recommendations into the building code. Besides the solar water heater, all modifications to the structure or addition of new material will have a negative impact on the return of investment, but when combined with the solar water heater can be justified as an economical viable solution.
References
[1] [2] [3] [4] http://www.parro.com.ar/index.php http://www.energycodes.gov/implement/state_code/index.stm http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/energyplus/ Benitez, J.L. (200?); Impact Assessment of the Implementation of an energy Conservation Code for Low-Income Housing in P.R. [5] Ruiz, G. (2011). Nuevo cdigo de construccin impone regulaciones ms estrictas. El nuevo Da, 40-41. [6] Alva L. H., Gonzles G.E. and Hertz J.B., Impact of construction materials in the energy consumption in homes in the Caribbean; International Solar Energy Conference, (2005) Orlando, Florida.
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Fuel economy and emissions analysis of conventional diesel, diesel-electric hybrid, biodiesel and natural gas powered transit buses
A. C. Nix, J. A. Sandoval, W. S. Wayne, N. N. Clark & D. L. McKain
Center for Alternative Fuels, Engines and Emissions (CAFEE), Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, West Virginia University, USA
Abstract
Alternative fuels, emissions control technologies and advanced propulsion technologies offer great potential for reducing emissions from, and increasing fuel economy of, buses employed in public transportation. The use of fuels such as Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and biodiesel, emissions controls such as diesel particulate filters (DPF) and diesel oxidation catalysts (DOC), and the use of advanced propulsion systems such as hybrid-electric diesel have great potential for decreasing emissions from public transit vehicles and potentially increasing fuel economy. The focus of this paper is to assess the environmental benefits of alternative fuels and advanced hybrid drive technologies in transit vehicles through experimental testing and analysis. Results show that hybrid-electric diesel and CNG buses yield significant reductions in CO2 emissions, approximately 10-20% lower than conventional diesel. Stoichiometric CNG buses demonstrated extremely low emissions of NOx, while conventional, lean-burn CNG had the highest NOx emissions, approximately twice that of hybrid technologies and conventional diesel engines. The hybrid-electric technology demonstrated the highest fuel economy, while CNG has the lowest fuel economy. The use of a 20% biodiesel blend (B20) demonstrated no discernable differences in fuel economy, while showing slightly higher NOx emissions levels and significantly lower PM compared to conventional diesel. Keywords: transit buses, alternative fuels, hybrid-electric vehicles, fuel economy, emissions, emissions controls.
1 Introduction
Alternative fuels, emissions control technologies and advanced propulsion technologies offer great potential for reducing emissions from, and increasing fuel economy of, buses employed in public transportation. The use of fuels such as compressed natural gas (CNG) and biodiesel, emissions controls such as diesel particulate filters (DPF) and diesel oxidation catalysts (DOC), and the use of advanced propulsion systems, such as electric-hybrids, have great potential for decreasing emissions from public transit vehicles and potentially increasing fuel economy. The number of transit buses in the United States was 62,000 in 2009 and the fleet is increasing at a rate of approximately 1% per year [1]. In the U.S., transit buses account for approximately 44% of the passenger miles traveled and 73% of the fossil fuels consumed by public transportation [1]. Although at the macroscale level emissions from transit buses are small in comparison to the total emissions by motor vehicles, their impact at the microscale level (population exposure and related health effects) is significant as they operate in metropolitan areas, many of which are in non-attainment regions with respect to ambient air quality [1, 2]. The focus of this paper is to assess the environmental benefits of increased implementation of alternative fuels and advanced hybrid drive technologies in the U.S. transit bus fleet, which is applicable to bus transit fleets in cities around the world, in comparison to continued reliance upon diesel fuel, primarily to reduce tailpipe emissions of air pollutants harmful to public health and the environment. The West Virginia University (WVU) Center for Alternative Fuels, Engines and Emissions (CAFEE) has developed a comprehensive database of emissions and fuel economy measurements from various transit bus technologies through testing with their Transportable Heavy-Duty Vehicle Emissions Test Laboratory (THDVETL) [3]. The mobile laboratory has been employed to test vehicles for various public transportation authorities throughout North America, including the United States and Mexico. Data have been reported in various publications and reports over the past decade [1, 47]. The research has been sponsored by public transportation authorities, and U.S. government agencies including the Department of Transportation (DOT), Federal Transit Administration (FTA), Department of Energy (DOE) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Characterization of vehicles was performed on a chassis dynamometer that simulated inertial, aerodynamic, and tire rolling resistance loads, based on vehicle acceleration and speed of a specific drive cycle (speed versus time schedule) [3]. WVU CAFEE has developed drive cycles for a wide range driving situations representative of vehicle use in transit bus operations. Testing was conducted in accordance with emissions test procedures set forth by the U.S. EPA in the Code of Federal Regulations Title 40 Part 86 Subparts B and N [8] and Part 1065 [9] and SAE recommended practice for testing of hybrid-electric vehicles [10]. The exhaust from each bus was routed to a full-scale dilution tunnel where gaseous and particulate emissions were sampled and measured. Analysis of data from the laboratory results in quantification of fuel economy
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and emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (methane and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC)) and particulate matter (PM). Results and emissions trends are reported for 40 ft and 60 ft articulated buses of varying engine model year and propulsion technologies.
2 Drive cycles, coastdowns, and laboratory operation

2.1 Drive cycles In order to quantify the emissions and fuel economy of the test vehicles, the vehicles were driven on the engine dynamometer through a cycle representative of typical operation of the transit buses in revenue service. The transient speedtime schedule test cycle used to evaluate the exhaust emissions and fuel economy of the test buses for the current work was the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) driving cycle. This cycle represents transit fleet operation near the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Data was also recorded for the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) cycle; however, results for all buses in this study were only available on the OCTA cycle, so only this cycle was reported herein. The target speed versus time trace for the OCTA duty cycle is shown in Figure 1 below, with the relevant statistical properties. In general, the OCTA cycle compared to a cycle within metropolitan city limits (such as the WMATA cycle) is a higher speed cycle with significantly less idle time and correspondingly fewer stops per mile which impact emissions and fuel economy on a given vehicle. WVU faculty and students developed or assisted in the development of these cycles by installing GPS equipment and engine control unit (ECU) logging equipment on in-use buses to characterize their routes. During testing, the driver of the vehicle on the chassis dynamometer follows the speed versus time trace for the applicable cycle via a monitor installed in the vehicle. The speed set point trace is followed as closely as possible and the actual calculated vehicle speed is displayed.
Figure 1:
OCTA Duty cycles and cycle statistics.

The vehicle actual speed versus set point speed is analyzed post-test to determine whether the desired speed versus time cycle trace was met. This determination is made through a linear least-squares fit to the data and a slope near unity and high correlation coefficient (R2 of 0.995 or greater) indicated that the driver followed the scheduled trace as closely as possible. This ensures that there is little test-to-test variability in the vehicle cycle, which can affect emissions and fuel economy results. 2.2 Vehicle loading and coastdowns In order to accurately simulate the on-road operation of a transit bus in a stationary test, on-road vehicle loads were simulated using a chassis dynamometer directly connected to the drive hubs of each vehicle. Figure 2 below shows a transit bus being installed on the WVU chassis dynamometer. The simulated loads include vehicle inertia, aerodynamic drag and tire rolling resistance. Inertia was simulated using a combination of differently sized inertial flywheels that accurately reproduce the on-road inertia presented by the sum of the field-measured empty weight of the vehicle, one-half passenger load plus the driver (assuming 150 lbs per passenger) and one-half tank of fuel. Aerodynamic drag and tire rolling resistance simulation was accomplished by controlling dynamometer loading to achieve appropriate deceleration rates across the driving speed spectrum.
Exhaust transfer Transit Bus Emissions lab
Fly wheels
Hub connect for loading
Chassis dyno
Figure 2:
Transit bus installation on chassis dynamometer.
Dynamometer loading as a function of vehicle speed was determined by iteratively allowing the vehicle to coast from 50 miles per hour to a stop on the dynamometer while refining the dynamometer loading such that the coastdown profile matched a theoretical zero-grade (i.e. flat ground) coastdown profile determined using the frontal area of the bus and drag coefficient and tire rolling resistance coefficients typical for transit buses, as determined through extensive on-road coast down testing. The drag coefficient (Cd) and rolling resistance
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coefficient () used in all testing were 0.79 and 0.008, respectively. These values are typical of transit buses and consistent with values used in previous test programs. Results of vehicle speed versus time from a typical coastdown run are included in Figure 3.
Figure 3:
Sample speed versus time trace during coastdown.
The speed versus time data of the coastdown is manipulated by determining the time rate of change of momentum (d(mV)/dt) of the vehicle which is balanced by the forces (air resistance and road friction) acting on the vehicle, as shown in Equation (1) below:
F ma m
dV 1 FDrag FFriction V 2 A C d mg dt 2
(1)
where m is the mass of the vehicle, V is the velocity of the vehicle (time dependent), t is time, is the air density, A is the frontal area of the vehicle, Cd is the drag coefficient, is the rolling resistance and g is the acceleration due to gravity. Note that the drive cycles do not include any grade, so there is no force contribution from the force of gravity acting on the bus on a grade other than that due to road friction. Rearranging this equation into a non-dimensional form yields:
dV 1 1 V 2 A Cd mx b dt g 2 mg
(2)
As shown in Equation (2), rearranging the force balance into this form yields an equation where M is the slope of a linear least-squares fit of a plot of dV/dt*1/g (y-axis value) vs. 1/2V2A/mg (x-axis value) and b is the intercept. Using the measured vehicle velocity on the chassis dyno, the calculated change in velocity with time, and the mass of the vehicle and frontal area, the linear fit to this data yields the drag coefficient (Cd) as the slope and the rolling resistance

() as the y-intercept, as shown in Figure 4. In the example, the drag coefficient (slope) is determined by the curve fit to be 0.79 and the rolling resistance is the intercept and is determined to be 0.008, the target values for this vehicle. Scatter in the plot at lower velocity represent vehicle gearshifts typical of an automatic transmission.
Figure 4:
Determination of lab drag coefficient and rolling resistance example.
3 Results and analysis

3.1 Emissions and fuel economy measurement Exhaust from each vehicle being tested was routed to a full-scale dilution tunnel where the exhaust was mixed with HEPA-filtered ambient air. A sample of the dilute exhaust was analyzed to determine the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), oxides of nitrogen (combination of nitrogen dioxide and nitric oxide reported as NOX), carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbons (HC). Procedures for calibrating, maintaining and operating the laboratory system contained in the United States EPA federal regulations (40 CFR Parts 86 and 1065) [8, 9] were followed throughout the test program. A separate sample of the dilute exhaust was diluted further using a secondary dilution system before being passed through a mircrofiber filter to collect particulate matter (PM) emissions. PM Filters are pre- and post-weighed in a climate-controlled clean room on a microbalance after being conditioned under identical ambient conditions (temperature and humidity). The mass of particulate matter for each test was determined by subtracting the weight of the clean filter from that of the filter after particulate matter had been collected on its surface. This mass is then corrected for the dilution ratio (the amount of exhaust flow going through the filter compared to the total exhaust flow of the vehicle and dilution tunnel) to determine the weight of PM emitted by the engine during the cycle. Fuel consumption was determined through two methods, gravimetrically and through a carbon chemical balance. For diesel and hybrid-electric diesel buses,
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the diesel fuel for the bus was supplied from a drum on a calibrated fuel weight scale. Total weight of fuel consumed was determined by analysis of initial and final fuel weight of the drum. In order to determine volume of fuel used (for miles per gallon fuel economy determination), specific gravity of the fuel was measured in-field using a hydrometer kit. In addition to gravimetric analysis, fuel consumption was calculated using a chemical carbon-balance methodology, which typically was within 5% of the gravimetric calculated value. For CNG bus testing, fuel consumption was determined only through carbon-balance, since gravimetric analysis was not possible. All fuel economy (FE) data reported for the vehicles tested have been converted to #2 diesel energy equivalent in order to compare FE between vehicles employing different fuels. In order to convert from a given fuel, the total energy into the engine from the fuel and distance traveled are held constant, so fuel economy can be thought of in terms of kJ/mile. In order to convert from one fuel to the other, the heating value (LHV) or total energy per mass (kJ/kg) of the fuels needs to be considered, as well as the density of the fuel to convert from mass to volume of fuel used. A sample of the diesel and CNG fuels used during testing were analyzed for composition and heating value. Equation (3) below is an example of converting fuel economy from #1 diesel to #2 diesel. For CNG, the FE was converted to MPG using the density of the fuel at standard temperature and pressure (STP).
FE [ MPG # 2 Diesel] FE [ MPG #1 Diesel] LHV# 2 Diesel Density # 2 Diesel LHV#1 Diesel Density #1 Diesel
(3)
For testing of hybrid vehicles, the state-of-charge (SOC) of the energy storage system (ESS) was logged by continuous measurement of battery voltage and current magnitude and direction. This was done in order to determine the net energy change (NEC) of the ESS over the course of the drive cycle. SAE J2711, Recommended Practice for Measuring Fuel Economy and Emissions of HybridElectric and Conventional Heavy-Duty Vehicles [10] requires correction of emissions and fuel economy data if the NEC is greater than 1% over the test cycle. The total net battery work was calculated by integrating the power (voltage x current) throughout the test cycle over time and dividing by the total cycle energy to determine NEC. If this percentage is above 5%, the test is invalid and must be repeated. For the reported data, all hybrid vehicles tests had a NEC of 1% or less, requiring no corrections to emissions or FE. 3.2 Fuel economy and carbon dioxide emissions results Fuel economy and CO2 results are shown in Figure 5. As discussed above, FE numbers are presented in energy equivalent #2 diesel gallons for comparative purposes between different propulsion technologies. Comparison of CNG (60 ft stoichiometric and 40 ft lean burn) and equivalent size hybrid buses reveals that fuel consumption for CNG is approximately 45-50% higher than for the hybrids, as shown in the FE results, while CO2 emissions were approximately equal.

Compared to conventional diesel, CNG is shown to have approximately 25% higher fuel consumption. CNG contains less carbon per unit of fuel energy (LHV) than petroleum fuels and therefore produces less CO2 for a given required energy input. From fuel analysis, hydrogen to carbon (H-C) ratios were 1.81 for diesel and 3.85 for CNG, while lower heating values were 42.73 MJ/kg for diesel and 49.83 MJ/kg for CNG. A combustion analysis reveals that diesel fuel produces 15% more CO2 per unit mass of fuel and 34% more CO2 per unit energy (LHV) than CNG. The overall CO2 advantage of CNG is lower than that as diesel combustion achieves higher compression ratios (16:1-18:1) than CNG (10:1-12:1) with higher conversion efficiencies, and CNG buses are heavier than diesels. When compared with diesel, CNG fueled transit buses have been measured to produce up to 35% less CO2 emissions [11], in the current work this value was measured to be approximately 12%. Hybrid vehicles, on the other hand, take advantage of regenerative braking and improved engine operation to reduce fuel consumption. Interestingly, this advantage over diesel is shown to be approximately 20% for MY 2003-2006 buses, while the hybrid advantage of the new MY buses was measured as only approximately 5%, likely due to the increased weight of the newer hybrid buses. Another significant parameter to consider when comparing CNG and diesel buses is vehicle curb weight. A 40 ft CNG bus is 2,000 to 3,000 lb heavier than
6
Fuel Economy (mpg)
5 4 3 2 1 0 4,000 3,000
4.3 3.3 2.3
4.1
4.8 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.2
3,092 3,038 2,340
2,470
CO2 (g/mi)
2,433
2,543 2,544 2,103
2,246
2,000 1,000 0
Hybrid CNG Stoich. 60 ft - MY 2007-2009
Hybrid Diesel B20
Hybrid Diesel B20
CNG Lean Burn
40 ft - MY 2007-2009
40 ft - MY 2003-2006
Figure 5:
OCTA Cycle fuel economy and CO2 emissions.
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the conventional diesel counterpart. CNGs and diesel-hybrids, on the other hand, have equivalent weights; in the CNGs the extra weight comes from the high-pressure fuel tanks while in the hybrids it is attributed to the hybrid battery pack. Considering all of these factors together make the CO2 advantage, comparing against the conventional diesel baseline, from the hybrid architecture equivalent to the advantage from the CNG technology. This conclusion holds for both of the CNG technologies studied, lean burn and stoichiometric. The impact of biodiesel fuel on FE was not significant. The difference in heating value between B20 (20%/80% blend of biodiesel and diesel) and diesel fuels was less than 2%. Similar results were obtained for CO2 emissions. Even though tailpipe CO2 emissions from diesel and B20 biodiesel fueled buses were equivalent, the potential of biodiesel blends is the reduction of well-to-wheel carbon dioxide emissions, which includes fuel production, shipping, etc. Being a feedstock based fuel; biodiesel reduces the net carbon footprint when compared to petroleum diesel. A well-to-wheel analysis, performed with GREET software from U.S. Argonne National Laboratory, reveals that the B20 blend has the potential of reducing the CO2 footprint by 15%. 3.3 Regulated emissions results Figure 6 presents regulated emissions (NOx, PM, HC and CO) for the test vehicles. NOx emissions for 40 ft, model year (MY) 2003-2006 buses were higher for the CNGs, followed by biodiesel, diesel, and hybrid with the lowest. NOx emissions were slightly higher for B20 than for diesel, but without statistical significance (as shown by the error bars). Introduction of lower NOx certification engines (2007-2009) reduced NOx by nearly 40% from the earlier B20 and diesel levels, while the reduction was marginal for the hybrids. The effect on regulated emissions of employing B20 biodiesel is also demonstrated in Figure 6. The differences are seen primarily in the NOx and PM emissions, while HC and CO had low values for both B20 and diesel. Employing B20 increased NOx emissions slightly, approximately 10% for MY 2003-2006 buses and 5% for newer MY buses. PM emissions decreased nearly 20% on older MY buses that have significantly higher PM emissions than 2007 and later MY vehicles equipped with more advanced diesel particulate filters (DPFs). The decreases in PM for newer MY buses is approximately 50%, but for both diesel and B20, the PM levels are extremely low. Implementation of DPFs on post 2007 buses brought PM emissions levels to near zero values. The MY 2003-2006 diesel hybrid was also DPF equipped, as evidenced by the low PM values measured. Hydrocarbon emissions from diesel buses also had near zero values while they were significant from CNGs. The DPFs also react on carbon monoxide emissions, with extremely low measured values. The CNG stoichiometric combustion showed CO emissions levels 50 times higher than the lean burn CNG combustion buses. This was not expected, as the stoichiometric CNG buses have a 3-way catalyst that is used in rich-burn or stoichiometric engines for simultaneous conversion of oxides of nitrogen (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbons (HC).

25
20.9
20
NOx (g/mi)
15 10 5
13.1 9.1 7.9 8.2 9.7
12.7
13.9
0.7
0 0.7 0.6
0.507 0.415
PM (g/mi)
0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 25 20
0.010 0.012
0.009
0.024
0.014
0.023
0.045
16.9 13.6
THC (g/mi)
15 10 5 0 160 140 120
0.0
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CO (g/mi)
100 80 60 40 20 0
0.1
Hybrid CNG Stoich.
0.2
0.1
0.1
B20
0.3
2.0
1.3
B20
2.0
Hybrid Diesel
Hybrid Diesel
60 ft - MY 2007-2009
40 ft - MY 2007-2009
CNG Lean Burn 40 ft - MY 2003-2006
Figure 6:
OCTA Cycle distance-specific emissions.
A direct comparison between the lean burn and stoichiometric CNG buses is complicated by the fact that the vehicles were of different size (40 ft vs. 60 ft). As a method of comparison, the total emissions were normalized by engine work (in break horsepower-hours), as shown in Figure 7. It should be noted that both Figures 7 and 8 have been scaled to plot different emissions magnitudes on the same plot. Figure 7 shows a 20% increase in brake-specific CO2 emissions for the stoichiometric engine compared to the lean burn strategy. This result is due to incomplete combustion and to the higher combustion temperature that leads to higher heat losses in the stoichiometric engine [12]. The 3-way catalyst on the
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stoichiometric bus resulted in a reduction of 97% in NOx emissions, 80% in PM, and 40% in HC. Figure 8 presents a comparison with regard to ridership between standard (40 ft) and articulated (60 ft) hybrid buses, MY 2007-2009. Emissions are in grams per passenger-mile and fuel consumption (FC) in gallons per passengermile. The figure shows that implementation of articulated routes can yield a reduction of 15% in fuel consumption per passenger-mile at half seated occupation. The improvement can be as high as 25% with full load. The effect on CO2 is equivalent to the effect on FC; the reductions shown on other emissions are within the experimental uncertainty.
Brake-Specific Emissions (g/bhp-hr)
5 4 3 2 1 0
Lean Burn
Stoichiometric
CO2 0.01
CO 0.1
NOx
HC
PM 100
Figure 7:
Scaled brakespecific emissions for lean burn and stoichiometric CNGs.

1.4
Emissions and F.C. per Passenger - Mile
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
40 ft
60 ft
F.C. 100
CO2 0.01
CO 100
NOx
PM 1000
Figure 8:
Standard versus articulated bus comparison.
4 Experimental uncertainty
Experimental uncertainty of the emissions and FE data reported in this paper is a function of bias uncertainty and measurement uncertainty. Bias uncertainty is a function of errors in the measurements devices (analyzers, thermocouples, flow meters, etc.), while measurement uncertainty is a function of test-to-test variability, either from test conditions or human error. Since the reported results are comparative and the laboratory equipment and procedures are consistent between the various vehicles and cycles tested, the bias uncertainty is essentially the same for all tests and does not present a significant contribution to

uncertainty. Measurement uncertainty was determined through analysis of the experimental values for repeat tests for a specific vehicle and cycle. Absolute values were determined through margin of error analysis, m.e. t * / n [13], where m.e. is margin of error, is standard deviation, n is number of tests, and t* is the t distribution critical value corresponding to n 1 degrees of freedom and a confidence level of 95%. Relative values (%) were obtained with the margin of error relative to the average. Uncertainty is reflected in the reported emissions and FE results in Figures 5, 6, 7 and 8 with error bars. Average uncertainty in fuel economy and CO2 emissions was estimated to be 4%, with individual values ranging from 2% to 9%. This was the case when 3 tests were done; on the other hand, when 4 or 5 tests were performed, uncertainty in fuel economy and CO2 emissions was reduced to 1% to 2%. The uncertainty levels on a percentage basis for NOx, CO, and HC emissions were dependent on the magnitude of the corresponding species. With tightening emissions regulations and new technologies having very low emissions values, tailpipe emissions can differ from one to two orders of magnitude between technologies. The lower end of the spectrum presents a high percentage uncertainty while uncertainty for the high end is lower. Uncertainty in NOx emissions was estimated to be 5% when distance specific emissions were on the order of 1 to 10 g/mile, and 30% where they were of order 0.1 g/mile. Average PM emissions uncertainty was around 30%, although it should be noted that due to the diesel and hybrid vehicles being equipped with particulate filters and CNG vehicles having extremely low PM emissions, the uncertainty in PM measurement is high. All post 2007 diesel buses, which were DPF equipped, presented HC emissions below the detection limit of the test bench, and thus uncertainty was not determined. HC emissions for the CNG buses and the 2003-2006 diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC) equipped diesel buses had an average uncertainty of 30%. Uncertainty in carbon monoxide was high due run-to-run variation that is likely due to variations in the efficiency of the catalyst from test to test.
5 Conclusions and recommendations

The current work presents fuel economy and emissions results for conventional diesel, diesel-electric hybrid, biodiesel and natural gas powered transit buses. The primary focus was to present the benefits in fuel economy and potential decreases in CO2 (a greenhouse gas (GHG)), as well as reporting the emissions levels of other regulated emissions, including NOx (an indirect GHG). Results showed that hybrid-electric diesel and CNG buses yield significant reductions in CO2 emissions, approximately 10-20% lower than conventional diesel. Stoichiometric CNG buses demonstrated extremely low emissions of NOx, while lean burn CNG had the highest NOx emissions, approximately twice that of hybrid technologies and conventional diesel engines, which have approximately the same levels of NOx. Fuel economy of the various technologies was compared on a #2 diesel basis. As expected, the hybridelectric technology demonstrated the highest fuel economy, while CNG has the lowest fuel economy. When compared on a per passenger basis, the 60 ft
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stoichiometric CNG buses showed a 15-20% lower fuel consumption (gal/passenger-mile), and 20% lower CO2 emissions (grams/passenger-mile) than the 40 ft lean burn CNG buses, demonstrating the value of employing 60 ft articulated buses in transit service. The use of biodiesel (B20) demonstrated no discernable differences in fuel economy, while showing slightly higher NOx emissions levels and significantly lower PM compared to conventional diesel. A well-to-wheel analysis revealed that the B20 blend has the potential of reducing the CO2 footprint by 15%, although differences in CO2 emissions from diesel engine combustion are within the measurement uncertainty. With the advent of the advanced bus technologies presented in this paper, the only emissions that remain relevant, with any significant emission levels are CO2 and NOx. Emissions levels of HC and CO were demonstrated to be near zero for all technologies with the exception of the CNG buses. PM emissions were shown to be extremely low for all vehicles except the older MY diesel buses. The recommendations on choice of the optimal vehicle technology resulting from this work are complicated by the dependency on average driving cycle for specific application and economics of vehicle purchase. However, one key aspect is the need to look at emissions and FE on a per passenger basis. The current work presented data for a single drive cycle (OCTA) only. The data from this program have been added to the extensive database of emissions data maintained by the WVU CAFEE. In order to perform an analysis including economics of vehicle purchase, WVU has developed an Integrated Bus Information System (IBIS) database [14] online and will be developing a lifecycle cost (LCC) model website under funding from U.S. Federal Transit Administration (FTA). Application of the LCC model and analysis of the effects of vehicle drive cycle to the current data set are planned as a potential future publication.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge the support of the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA), the Central Florida Regional Transportation Authority (LYNX), the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT)-Federal Transit Administration (FTA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in conducting this research. We would especially like to acknowledge the support and assistance of Mr. Vernon Lyght and WMATA in providing the test site and vehicles comprising the majority of the research contained in this work.
References
[1] Wayne, W.S., Sandoval, J.A. & Clark, N.N., Emissions Benefits from Alternative Fuels and Advanced Technology in the U.S. Transit Bus Fleet. Energy & Environment, 20 (4), pp. 497515, 2009. [2] Gouge, B., Ries, F.J. & Dowlatabadi, H., Spatial Distribution of Diesel Transit Bus Emissions and Urban Populations: Implications of Coincidence

and Scale on Exposure. Environ. Sci. Technol., 44 (18), pp 71637168, 2010. Wu, Y., Carder, D.K., Shade, B.C., Atkinson, R.J., Clark, N.N. & Gautam, M., A CFR1065-Compliant Transportable/On-Road Low Emissions Measurement Laboratory with Dual Primary Full-Flow Dilution Tunnels. Proc. of the ASME 2009 Internal Combustion Engine Division Spring Tech. Conf., pp 399410, 2009. Kahn, ABM S., Clark, N.N., Wayne, W.S., Thompson, G.J., Gautam, M. & Lyons, D.W., Regulated and Non-Regulated Emissions and Fuel Economy from Conventional Diesel, Hybrid-electric Diesel and Natural Gas Buses. Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, 47(3), pp. 105126, 2008. Clark, N.N., Rivero-Borrell, E., McKain, D., Paramo, V.H., Wayne, W.S., Vergara, W., Barnett, R., Gautam, M., Thompson, G.J., Lyons, D.W. & Schipper, L., Evaluation of Emissions from New and In-Use Transit Buses in Mexico City. Transportation Research Record, 1987, pp. 4253, 2006. Clark, N.N., McKain, D.L., Sindler, P., Jarrett, R., Nuszkowski, J.P., Gautam, M., Wayne, W.S. & Thompson, G.J., Comparative Emissions from Diesel and Biodiesel Fueled Buses from 2002 to 2008 Model Years. SAE Technical Paper Series, 2010-01-1967, 2010. Clark, N.N., Prucz, J.C., Gautam, M. & Lyons, D.W., The West Virginia University Heavy Duty Vehicle Emissions Database as a Resource for Inventory and Comparative Studies. SAE Technical Paper Series, 2000-012854, 2000. Code of Federal Regulations. Title 40: Protection of Environment, Part 86: Control of emissions from new and in-use highway vehicles and engines. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington DC, 2006. Code of Federal Regulations. Title 40: Protection of Environment, Part 1065: Engine Testing Procedures. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington DC, 2006. Recommended practice for measuring fuel economy and emissions of hybrid-electric and conventional heavy-duty vehicles. SAE J2711. Surface Vehicle Recommended Practice. SAE International Publications, Warrendale PA, 2002. Melendez, M., Taylor, J., Zuboy, J., Wayne, W.S. & Smith, D., Emission Testing of Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) Natural Gas and Diesel Transit Buses. NREL/TP Technical Report 54036355, Golden, CO, 2005. Faiz, A., Weaver, C.S. & Walsh, M.P., Air Pollution from Motor Vehicles: Standards and Technologies for Controlling Emissions, The World Bank: Washington DC, pp. 197, 1996. Moore, D.D. & McCabe, G.P., Introduction to the Practice of Statistics, Fifth Edition, Freeman: New York, pp. 452, 2006. http://ibis.wvu.edu/
[3]
[4]
[5]
[6]
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[12] [13] [14]
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Street lighting power reduction potential in Lithuanian cities

R. Balsys1, K. Otas1, A. Mikulionis1, V. J. Paknas1, A. Vakys1, P. Vitta2 & A. ukauskas2
1
Department of Electrical Engineering, Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania 2 Institute of Applied Research, Vilnius University, Lithuania
Abstract
Purpose of this paper is to evaluate the current street lighting condition and energy saving possibilities using new light emitting diode (LED) technologies in the main cities of Lithuania. The power consumption evaluation model has been used for comparison of current high-pressure sodium (HPS) lamp technology and available LED technologies. The model enables to evaluate luminous flux losses as well as electric power losses. The calculations have been carried out for the largest Lithuanian cities and the following conclusions have been made. The current HPS technology was implemented in towns about 1015 years ago. Now the life time of those luminaries is being expired. So the renovation of street lighting systems would be necessary in the nearest future. It was determined that the implementation of LED technologies (due to higher efficiency of LEDs, smaller energy losses in luminaire optics, more effective distribution of luminous flux and other advantages) enables to achieve electric power reduction by 20 60%. This mostly depends on power of the HPS lamp to be replaced and the quality of LED luminaires. The expedience of the current luminaire replacement by LED luminaire depends on the street lighting condition characteristics such as type and power of luminaire, maintenance duration and others. Most energy efficient replacement by LED luminaires should be carried out in the narrow residential streets where luminance levels exceed the requirements of standards now. Keywords: street lighting, power reduction, LED lighting.
1 Introduction
A certain electric power of lighting system is being consumed to produce some useful luminous flux for city street lighting. The efficiency of the whole street lighting system may be evaluated using ratio of useful luminous flux for street lighting to required electric power of lighting system for production of the mentioned flux. This criterion may be used either for comparison of different street lighting systems [1, 2] or for the estimation of power reduction potential of renovated street lighting. The efficiency of street lighting system is determined by luminous flux losses as well as electric power losses that depend on technical parameters and quality of lighting system particular components. The engineering factor i.e. capability of optimum choice and use of possible street lighting technologies is of great importance too.
2 Estimation of street lighting system efficiency

The efficiency of street lighting system is closely related to losses emerging during conversion of electric energy into useful light energy. They are caused by electric and luminous energy transmission, transformation, conversion and distribution and also due to particularity of light source radiation spectrum. Engineering decisions for lighting system also have influence to efficiency. Analysing street lighting system efficiency it is expedient to distinguish luminous flux utilization efficiency, light source luminous efficacy and electric power supply efficiency. 2.1 Luminous flux losses The useful luminous flux (e) incident on road surface should ensure the road surface luminance value according to the standards [3]. A part of luminaire luminous flux (d) uselessly dissipates into environment making losses. Dissipation loss factor evaluates this part of luminous flux:
Cd d / e
(1)
The value of this factor depends on luminaire luminous intensity distribution and luminaire position with respect to the road and can change in wide range. In a similar way the light flux losses in luminaire optical system have been evaluated by means of optical system loss factor (Co). Furthermore during maintenance the optical properties of luminaries depreciate making extra luminous flux losses that usually are being taken into account in design stage and in this article they have been evaluated using factor (Cp). All these factors increase the required initial light flux of light sources (s) that may be expressed:
s e (1 Cd )(1 Co )(1 C p )
(2)
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The luminous flux loss factor values of street lighting system are being defined according to luminaire technical characteristics and street lighting condition i.e. spacing, luminaire installation height, street width and the combination of the mentioned parameters. The reduction of luminous flux losses may be achieved using ingenious engineering decisions and their proper implementation. The luminaire optical system quality and maintenance conditions have influence on these factors. 2.2 Light source efficiency Light source luminous efficacy (s) has essential influence on the efficiency of the whole street lighting system. Up to now the changes of street lighting technologies from incandescent lamp to high-pressure mercury vapour lamp and further to high-pressure sodium vapour lamp enabled to increase lamp luminous efficacy more than twice. It was the main reason that enabled to reduce the street lighting system power since light source power (Ps):
Ps s / s
(3)
Upcoming LED technologies also predict similar achievements in the nearest future [1]. Since LED technology also has other advantages. So the best versions of LED technology may already successfully compete. Light source luminous efficacy decreases during maintenance and causes the same depreciation in luminous flux assuming that the source power is constant. Due to the mentioned depreciation the source power use is increased at the initial maintenance stage. Dimming possibility enables to reduce lighting system power (Pm) at the initial maintenance stage. 2.3 Electric power losses These losses emerge due to energy losses in lamp supply circuits and electric energy supply network. HPS lamp luminaires including standard electromagnetic ballasts and separate street lighting electrical network are being used in the lighting systems of the main Lithuanian cities. A part of luminaires are being supplied through group power regulators (dimmers) varying voltage value. So electric power losses emerge in light source ballasts or supply electric circuits (Pb), in electric power network (Pn) and in group dimmers (Pc) if they are being in use. In this article the losses mentioned above have been estimated by the correspondent loss factors Cb, Cn and Cc. The power consumed by street lighting system has been calculated according to the equation:
P Ps (1 Cb )(1 Cn )(1 Cc )
(4)

Such loss calculation method enables to show the influence of each loss component on the whole lighting system efficiency. Using expressions (2), (3) and (4) it may be calculated: e / P (5) These expressions may be quite precisely applied for the separate parts of lighting system that have equal and known parameters and the mentioned loss factors are quite exactly determined. For example, for the certain type and the same power HPS lamp luminaries installed and maintained under the same conditions. Many different luminaires are being maintained in the Lithuanian city lighting systems. So it is expedient to use the generalized statistical average values of loss factor applied to luminaires of the certain power following the whole lighting system division into parts according to HPS luminaire power. Similarly the LED luminaires of the same parameters should be grouped. For example, luminous efficacy of different spectrum LEDs differs considerably so they should be divided into separate groups.
3 Current street lighting of Lithuanian cities

During last 10-15 years the HPS lamp luminaires have been implemented in street lighting of Lithuanian cities and metal halide luminaires are being in use for architectural or pedestrian zone lighting. The other type luminaires such as fluorescent, mercury or incandescent make very small part and are being in use for underground crossing lighting or are still have not been replaced yet. Building of new streets or reconstruction usually includes lighting design and luminaire installation on special poles according to the European standards [3]. However during renovation of street lighting in residential districts with individual houses the aerial electric network reinforced-concrete poles are being used as lighting poles too. Their spacing is not suitable for lighting purposes so considerable light flux losses emerge. 3.1 Light system characteristics of the largest cities Lighting systems of five largest Lithuanian cities (capital Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipda, iauliai and Panevys) have been analysed in this work. Their inhabitant number makes about 40% of that of Lithuania. The lighting system luminaire parameters of vehicle traffic streets are presented in table 1. The luminaires for other lighting purposes i.e. for lighting of pedestrian zones, parks, underground crossings, objects of architecture are not included. More than 98% of street lighting luminaires in these cities make the high-pressure sodium lamp luminaires. The total power of the mercury lamp luminaires in the mentioned cities is only 292 kW or about 2% of the total power of the lighting systems.
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Table 1: City Vilnius Kaunas Klaipda iauliai Panevys
Lighting system characteristics of Lithuanian cities. Area, (km2) 401 157 98 88 50 Length of lightened streets (km) 691 807 563 280 270 Quantity of luminaires (pcs) 36696 24214 13273 11481 7150 Power of luminaires (kW) 5194 3227 2204 1601 797
Number of inhabitants, (thousands) 549 349 183 125 112
3.2 Condition of city lighting systems The development of street lighting during last 15-20 years has been analogous in all Lithuanian cities. Since formerly energy has not been saved, the 250 W power mercury lamp luminaires and also incandescent lamp luminaires have been used almost in all the streets. The city municipalities have been incapable to pay electric energy charges and street lighting has been switched on only part of the night time. In addition the considerable lighting power overloaded the street lighting electrical network caused frequent network failures increasing maintenance expenses. Therefore in order to ensure street lighting during entire dark time of night the decision to decrease the lighting system power has been made. Vilnius city commenced the replacement of mercury lamp luminaires the first. Kaunas and other cities followed a little later. 3.2.1 Street lighting of Vilnius city In Vilnius the inefficient and quite powerful mercury lamp luminaires have been replaced by HPS lamp luminaires 15 years ago. Lighting control and electrical network have not been changed. So the possibilities of power decrease became insignificant and energy saving has been carried out by switching off one phase at night. Thus the power of 3743 kW lighting system part has been decreased about 1250 kW at night. However such an energy saving inadmissibly deteriorates the quality of street lighting. Carrying out the last renewal the quality of installed luminaires has not been the best. Consequently the new renovation of Vilnius street lighting system already is necessary. 3.2.2 Street lighting of Kaunas city Kaunas street lighting system has been renovated later. Ten years ago the major part of mercury lamp luminaires has been replaced by sodium lamp luminaires having carried out lighting engineering and electrical network design. However the major part of electrical network has not been renewed. After renovation the halved power has been consumed although due to the lack of funds a part of luminaires (232 kW or about 7%) still has not been replaced. The lighting system power having been reduced in Kaunas city no luminaires have been switched off at night. In 2010 year street lighting in Kaunas city neither has not been dimmed nor switched off at night since electric energy consumption after renovation has been reduced [5, 6].

3.2.3 Street lighting of other cities In Klaipda, iauliai and Panevys almost all streets are being lightened with HPS lamp luminaires. Only in iauliai city 103 mercury lamp luminaires are in use. Their total power is 14 kW and does not reach 1% of the street lighting system total power. Power reduction at night is being carried out by switching off a part of luminaires or using group dimmers that change the supply voltage. The data are presented in table 2. Table 2: City Klaipda iauliai Panevys Power reduction of lighting system. Power of luminaires being switched off (kW) 524 800 314
Power of dimmed luminaires (kW) 940 319
4 Evaluation of lighting system efficiency

Lighting system efficiency has been evaluated by ratio of street lighting useful luminous flux to lighting system power necessary for generation of the mentioned flux. The assumed value of the useful luminous flux in this work has been 1000 lm. The electric power required for the generation of this flux has been deduced having taken into account the possible luminous flux losses, light source luminous efficacy and electric losses evaluated by means of factors described above. For this purpose the lighting system model has been made ensuring a possibility to vary the factors of losses under consideration according to the current parameters of lighting system. The lighting systems including the mercury QE (80, 125 and 250 W) lamp and sodium ST (70, 100, 150, 250 and
Figure 1:
Light source luminous flux distribution dependent on lighting system.
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400 W) lamp luminaires without dimming have been analysed. The system including 150 W sodium lamp luminaires supplied from group dimmers (version ST 150 C) also have been under consideration. Using the same procedure two new lighting systems i.e. average level present-day LED lighting system (LED) and possible advanced LED lighting system (LED A) have been analysed. The comparable calculation results of lamp luminous flux necessary to have useful flux of 1000 lm according to the dependence (2) are presented in Fig. 1. The comparable calculation results of electric power necessary to produce the same useful flux according to the dependence (4) are presented in Fig. 2.
Figure 2:
Dependence of consumed power to produce useful 1000 lm flux on lighting system.
Efficiency of street lighting system including HPS luminaires considerably depends on installed lamp power. The more powerful lamp unit the less electric power is required to produce the same amount of useful luminous flux. This is caused by increased lamp luminous efficacy, reduced luminous flux dissipation losses and energy losses in ballast. The efficiency of LED lighting systems does not depend on power of luminaire unit since it is collected varying the separate small power LED number. LED lighting systems enable to reduce luminous flux losses and their rapid development also reduces losses in supply circuits that have been estimated as ballast losses in this work. Light source luminous efficacy has the main importance in LED lighting systems. It changes recently very rapidly and its value should be specified evaluating lighting system efficiency. In this work the luminous efficacy of LED has been assumed equal to 80 lm/W (case LED) and 130 lm/W (case LED A). As it is shown above the major part of Lithuanian city lighting systems includes sodium lamps and only a small part includes mercury lamps. The possibilities of power reduction in separate Lithuanian cities by using of LED lighting technologies during lighting system renovation have been estimated by means of comparable calculation results within the current situation. The extra

power reduction possibilities by dimming at night have not been analysed in this work. Evaluation results show the current average quality LED technologies enable to reduce lighting system power only if mercury lamp luminaires or low power (70 or 100 W) sodium lamp luminaries are being replaced. Even replacement of 150 W sodium lamp luminaires does not reduce system power especially if group dimmers have been used. For the current city lighting system structure the result of total power reduction is negative too (Table 3). Table 3: Luminaire power consumption reduction by using of LED technologies in Lithuanian cities (for all considered cities). Quantity of luminaires (pcs) 41043 9194 28951 11189 842 186 685 498 92588 Power (kW) 3376,3 1060,7 4879,3 3086,8 368,3 16,6 97,6 132,9 13018,5 Power reduction (LED case) kW 881,0 117,6 -631,1 -843,4 -180,2 10,3 56,3 69,2 -520,3 % 26,1 11,1 -12,9 -27,3 -48,9 62,0 57,7 52,1 -4,0 Power reduction (LED A case) kW 2186,2 610,9 2251,2 1212,3 106,7 13,6 77,9 102,5 6561,3 % 64,8 57,6 46,1 39,3 29,0 81,9 79,8 77,1 50
Lamps ST 70 ST 100 ST 150 ST 250 ST 400 QE 80 QE 125 QE 250 Total
Results of the current city street lighting system replacement by LED A (advanced) technology luminaires show that for all luminaire unit power cases the system power reduction has been obtained and the average power reduction has reached 50%. Analysing the separate cities (table 4) it can be seen that implementation of the current LED technologies is not useful for Klaipda city since there are no mercury lamps there and considerable part of luminaires (940 kW) is being supplied from group dimmers. Only in Kaunas city this technology enables to reduce the lighting system power by 119 kW. In the rest cities the possibilities of power reduction are negative. Table 4: City Vilnius Kaunas Klaipda iauliai Panevys Luminaire power consumption reduction by using of LED technologies in separate Lithuanian cities. Power reduction (LED case) kW % -178,4 -3,4 118,9 3,7 -438,2 -19,9 -1,4 -0,1 -7,1 -0,9 Power reduction (LED A case) kW % 2632 50,7 1745 54,1 944 42,8 837 52,3 414 51,9
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Another result would be obtained using advanced LED A technologies. In this case all the Lithuanian cities could reduce street lighting system power about two times. Relatively the power could be reduced mostly in Kaunas city (54%) and the least effect would be in Klaipda (42%).
5 Conclusions
Proposed street lighting system efficiency evaluation model enabled to carry out the current street lighting system analysis for the largest Lithuanian cities and to estimate their efficiency. Street lighting system power reduction potential using the current average quality LED technologies and the advanced LED A technologies have been analysed. It is determined the current LED technologies enable to reduce the lighting system power by replacing mercury lamp luminaires or low power (70 or 100 W) sodium lamp luminaires only. Considering the current street lighting system structure of main Lithuanian cities, the total system power could not be reduced using average quality LED technology. The lighting system power reduction by approximately 50% is possible using advanced LED A technology only.
Acknowledgement
This research was funded by a grant (No. ATE-09/2010) from the Research Council of Lithuania.
References
[1] Eclairage public, Recommandations aux authorites communales et aux exploitants de reseaux declairage http://www.energieeffizienz.ch/files/SB_ Flyer_2009_f.pdf [2] Gestion et LED, Eclairage public, Recommandations aux authorites communales et aux exploitants de reseaux declairage http://www.energieeffizienz.ch/files/SB_Flyer_2010_f.pdf [3] EN 13201-2:2003, Road lighting - Part 2: Performance requirements, p 20. [4] LEDs: roadmap pour les annees a venir, http://www.led-fr.net/led-roadmap2010022510106.htm. [5] Balsys, Ramnas; Mikulionis, Albertas; Paknas, Valdas Jonas; Vakys, Alfonsas. Prospects of renovation of the Kaunas street lighting system//Electrical and Control Technologies - 2006 : selected papers of the international conference, May 4-5, 2006, Kaunas, Lithuania. - ISSN 1822-5934. -Kaunas. -2006, p. 114-118. [6] Balsys, Ramnas; Mikulionis, Albertas; Paknas, Valdas Jonas; Vakys, Alfonsas. Possibilities of renovation of Kaunas street lighting // Electrical and Control Technologies - 2007 : selected papers of the 2nd international conference, May 3-4, 2007, Kaunas, Lithuania /. - ISSN 1822-5934. Kaunas. - 2007, p. 163-166.
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Biomass pellets production with industrial and agro-industrial wastes

J. C. A. R. Claro & D. Costa-Gonzalez
Centro de Qumica Vila Real / Departamento de Qumica, Universidade de Trs-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Portugal
Abstract
Based on a patented process for the treatment and reprocessing of waste and effluents from olive oil and cork industries (such as two-phase olive husks cork powder), new research has been carried out incorporating other industrial wastes. In previous research, using only olive oil and cork wastes, we obtained biomass pellets with high calorific values (20.6 MJ/kg and 22.2 MJ/kg), low moisture (8.9%) and relatively low ashes percentage (3.9%). Several new formulations and its relevance in the calorific value were now tested using other wastes or by-products. We have analysed the potential inclusion of olive leaves from the olive oil industry, grape husks and grape seeds from the winery industry and chestnut shells (outer shell and inner skin) from the chestnut industry. This process will contribute to solving environmental problems resulting from the discharge of those wastes and effluents and to create a viable and profitable alternative to their storage and/or a deposition in landfill. The increase of others biomass sources on these types of process is extremely important as an environmental and economic management point of view. This research shows that the use of different types of raw materials as biomass sources (giving different pellets formulations) results in a different final product with different physical and chemical characteristics that may improve its quality. Keywords: biomass pellets, olive wastes, cork wastes, food industry wastes.
1 Introduction
Company strategies are now becoming increasingly focused on factors for increasing productivity which also profess to be environmentally-friendly.

The reprocessing of wastes and by-products is therefore at the top of corporate concerns. Given the strategic importance that the olive oil sector represents for Mediterranean countries, these production and transformation units must not disregard this new attitude. In this context this process could be important to biomass industries and constitutes a very important technological platform internally for olive oil companies, launching them into a strategic framework characterised by an increase in productivity, a cleaner and more environmentally-friendly production that will become an important contribution to the sustainability of the sector. Olive oil can be obtained by three processes each of which includes the phases of weighing, washing of the olives, warehousing and milling (or grinding). The traditional process involves a pressing phase of the olives followed by a decantation/centrifugation which produces husks and olive mill wastewater in addition to the olive oil. More modern methods include, a beating process replacing the pressing, followed by an extraction in horizontal centrifuges. Water is added during these last two phases to facilitate the separation of the olive oil. These more modern methods consist of: Phase 1: Here the effluents are the same as those in the traditional method (husks and olive mill wastewater which are separate); Phase 2: This process results in a single effluent, known in the industry as humid husks or a paste (the result of the husks mixed together with the olive mill wastewater). Most of the olive oil currently produced uses the two production processes above. There are also production units known as husk oil extraction units which extract some of the remaining olive oil from the husks or humid husks. In any case and irrespective of the method used, all the units generate waste and effluents which are harmful to the environment (Sassi et al. [1], Andreozzi et al. [2], Morillo et al. [3]) and full research has been done about this issue (Gmez et al. [4], Russo et al. [5], Roig et al. [6]). Some existing treatment and/or reprocessing systems for effluents from olive oil production units are: irrigation of agricultural soils, lagooning, concentration through evaporation, physical/chemical processes, thermal processes, biological processes. On the other hand, as far as the cork industry residues are concerned, (mainly cork powder, particles less than 0.25 mm in size), which are considered as industrial residues (Code 03 01 99 of European Waste List), problems associated with drainage and storage have been verified, as well as the harmful environmental effects caused by them. The study by the Industrial Association of the District of Aveiro (Multi-Sector Study on the Area of Environment) in 2000 must be highlighted here (AIDA [7]). This study explicitly refers to the fact that The production of cork powder is, inclusively, responsible for some physiographical changes verified in the Council of Santa Maria da Feira (small
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valleys that disappear due to the continual deposition of cork dust in them). However, the cork powder has had its main use as a combustible fuel for producing energy (burns in kilns), with a small fraction being used for filling in corks of a lower quality, in the linoleum factory and in the control of soils (Gil [8]). Therefore it can be seen that none of the processes already known represent a sole and universal solution for the effective treatment and reprocessing of waste and effluents from olive oil production units and which at the same time is a solution for the drainage and efficient reprocessing of cork industry wastes. The process presented in this paper can be applied to the treatment of effluents and waste from olive oil production units in the following situations: Through the separate treatment of the waste and the effluent (husks and olive mill wastewater); Through the joint treatment of the waste and the effluent (humid husks). In this sense the process can be applied in any type of olive oil production installation whether it is using the traditional production system or the modern two-phase or three-phase production system. Therefore this approach could be an important contribution to a complete and universal solution for the efficient treatment of such residues and effluents. In fact, the known technologies only present part of the solution to the problem and some infer high implementation costs.
2 Methods and materials

2.1 Sample preparation In sample preparation we use two-phase olive husks and industrial wastes or byproducts, such as olive leaves, grape husks, grape seeds and chestnut shells that were previously turned into powder, in a grinding process using a sieve with a 1mm mesh. The powder that results from the solid materials are mixed mechanically with the two-phase olive husks generating a pulp material or paste that later is extruded and passes through a drying system to obtain a dried solid product. 2.2 Tested formulations The olive mill wastes (two-phase olive husks) were mixed with the different industrial wastes, testing two formulations with 8 and 15% (wt/wt) of each industrial waste powder. 2.3 Gross calorific value (GCV) determination Gross Calorific Value was determined for each formulation by calorimetric analysis performed with an AC600SHC Semi-Automatic Calorimeter (Leco) in the Chemistry Department of Trs-os-Montes e Alto Douro University (UTAD) in Vila Real, Portugal.

The process utilises grinded industrial wastes, namely olive leaves from the olive oil industry, grape husks and grape seeds from the winery industry and chestnut shells (outer shell and inner skin) from the chestnut industry, mixed mechanically with the effluents and/or wastes from olive oil production units creating a pulp material or paste that can be used, after drying, as a source of energy fuel. After the mixing, the paste can be extruded in the required form (e.g. pellets or briquettes) and reaches a convenient moisture in a dryer. The obtained dried solid product (Fig.1) has a calorific value about 20% higher than wood pellets or chips and a low percentage of moisture and ashes. With this very high calorific value, the recovery of the dry product as pellets, chips, briquettes or logs for burning in a biomass boiler will be extremely feasible.
Figure 1:
Biomass samples obtained by the described process.
In table 1 we can see the results of the gross calorific value for the different formulations of the biomass pellets obtained by this process. This result shows that the use of different types of raw materials as biomass sources for pellet production could be done based on this process and a similar range of calorific values are obtained (21.3 23.0 MJ/kg) comparatively to those with the cork powder. Different formulations lead to different final products with different physical and chemical characteristics that may define and improve its quality. Additionally the pellets biomass does not release unpleasant odours and has good mechanical resistance. Nevertheless, more research is needed to design pellets with suitable properties for specific applications and achieve all standards and norms required in the market.
Sustainable Development and Planning V Table 1:
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Gross calorific value (GCV) from biomass samples of olive mill wastes (two-phase olive husks) with 8 and 15% (wt/wt) of different kinds of industry wastes.
Gross Calorific Value (GCV) MJ kg-1
Industry biomass wastes Olive leaves
Sample n 1 2 3 Average S.D.*
8% (wt/wt) 22,5390 22,4635 22,6383 22,5469 0,0609 22,8858 22,8237 22,7819 22,8305 0,0369 22,8982 23,0390 22,8415 22,9262 0,0752 21,9291 22,1941 22,0296 22,0509 0,0954
15%
(wt/wt)
22,0738 22,2682 22,1495 22,1638 0,0696 23,0456 22,9319 22,7606 22,9127 0,1014 23,0718 23,1672 22,8296 23,0229 0,1288 21,2779 21,3670 21,3221 21,3223 0,0298
Grape husks
1 2 3 Average S.D.*
Grape seeds
1 2 3 Average S.D.*
Chestnut shell
1 2 3 Average S.D.*
* S.D. = Standard Deviation.
4 Conclusions
This approach offers an important contribution to a complete solution for the residues and/or effluents of the olive oil production units and the end-product obtained does not create a new environmental problem. The final product of this process has a high calorific value, about 20% higher relatively to wood pellets or chips and constitutes a material with great potential as biomass fuel. This process also presents a solution to an environmental problem which is duly identified and regulated by European standards and national laws. This enables the difficulties and disadvantages of the existing technologies to be overcome, especially those related to high implementation/execution costs and to the fact that they do not translate into a global solution, contributing only partial and/or one-off solutions to the problem.

In addition to all the environmental benefits, the process enables a product to be obtained that has a commercial value and which may constitute an attractive financial compensation for the olive oil production units and for the cork transformation units. Additionally this process allows water recuperation by condensation of the steam produced in the drying process.
References
[1] Sassi, A. B., et al., Detoxication of olive mill wastewaters by Moroccan yeast isolates, Biodegradation, Vol. 19, 337346, 2008. [2] Andreozzi, R., et al., Effect of combined physico-chemical processes on the phytotoxicity of olive mill wastewaters, Water Research, Vol. 42, 16841692, 2008. [3] Morillo, J. A., et al., Molecular microbial and chemical investigation of the bioremediation of two-phase olive mill waste using laboratory-scale bioreactor, Applied Microbiology and Biotechnology, Vol. 79, 30931, 2008. [4] Gmez, A., et al., An estimation of the energy potential of agro-industrial residues in Spain, Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Vol. 54, 972984, 2010. [5] Russo, C.; Cappelleti, G. M.; Nicoletti, G. M., LCA of energy recovery of the solid waste of the olive oil industries, 6th International Conference on LCA in the Agri-Food Sector, Zurich, November 1214, 2008. [6] Roig, A., Cayuela M. L., Snchez-Monedero, An overview on olive mill wastes and their valorization methods, Waste Management, Vol. 26, 960969, 2006. [7] AIDA - Associao Industrial do Distrito de Aveiro, Estudo Multi-Sectorial na rea do Ambiente, 61p, 2000. [8] Gil, L., Cork Powder Waste: An Overview, Biomass and Energy, Vol.13, 59-61, 1997.
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Bioethanol production from oilseed rape straw hydrolysate by free and immobilised cells of Saccharomyces cerevisiae
A. K. Mathew, K. Chaney, M. Crook & A. C. Humphries
Harper Adams University College, Newport, Shropshire, UK
Abstract
Oilseed rape (OSR) straw can serve as a low-cost feedstock for bioethanol production. Glucose and other fermentable sugars were extracted from OSR straw using sulfuric acid pre-treatment and enzymatic hydrolysis. Batch fermentation of enzymatic hydrolysate with Saccharomyces cerevisiae immobilised in Lentikat was found to be superior to free cells in terms of bioethanol yield. The maximum bioethanol concentration from free and immobilised cells was 6.73 and 9.45 g.l-1, respectively, with corresponding yields of 0.41and 0.49 g bioethanol. g glucose-1. Keywords: bioethanol, dilute acid pre-treatment, immobilisation, oilseed rape straw.
1 Introduction
In 2007, consumption of liquid fuels in the transportation sector was 46 million barrels per day and is expected to increase by 67 million barrels per day by 2035 EIA [1]. In 2007, the use of liquid fuels was responsible for 38% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, providing a significant contribution to climate change EIA [1]. The replacement of gasoline (petrol) with bioethanol is encouraged globally as a mechanism to reduce exposure to volatility in the oil market, and minimise the extent to which road transport contributes to global warming. Bioethanol can be produced from two different types of feedstocks: first-generation feedstocks (maize, wheat and sugarcane) and second-generation feedstocks (lignocellulosic materials such as straws, forest residue or any agriculture waste) (Balat [2]). Commercial production of bioethanol from firstgeneration feedstocks is limited by land availability, and concerns regarding the

use of land for fuel as opposed to food production. Second-generation bioethanol production from lignocellulosic material is a complex process compared to firstgeneration feedstocks due to the presence of lignin and hemicellulose. Additional processing steps, referred to as pre-treatment and hydrolysis are essential for extracting sugar from lignocellulosic materials. The pre-treatment process is highly energy intensive and expensive (due to enzyme application during hydrolysis), which means the production of second-generation bioethanol is currently non-competitive to first-generation bioethanol (Lora et al. [3]). Consequently bioethanol produced from second-generation feedstocks is the focus of considerable research and development. Global cultivation of OSR was 31 million ha in 2009. Assuming a straw yield of 1.5 3.0 tonnes per ha (Newman [4]), the amount of OSR straw produced in 2009 was between 46.5 and 93.0 million tonnes. Assuming a bioethanol yield of 270 l tonne-1 (Larson [5]) of straw (using existing technology) it is predicted that between 12.5 and 25.0 billion liters of bioethanol could have been produced from OSR straw. Currently OSR straw does not have an existing market and is normally ploughed back into field. Hence bioethanol production from OSR straw could add value to existing crops. Dilute acid pre-treatment is one of the most commonly used pre-treatment techniques for altering the structure of lignocellulosic materials (Moiser et al. [6]). It mainly breaks the structure of hemicellulose and a small portion of lignin. Dilute acid pre-treatment also leads to the formation of fermentation inhibitors such as acetic acid, hydroxymethylfurfural (HMF) and furfural as a result of sugar degradation (Palmqvist and Hahn-Hagerdal [7]). Dilute acid pre-treatment has been widely studied for a range of feedstocks. Jeong et al. [8] optimised the dilute acid pre-treatment of OSR straw based on the extent to which hemicellulosic sugars (mainly xylose, mannose and galactose) were extracted. Under optimum pre-treatment conditions (1.76% H2SO4, 152.6oC for 21 min) 85.5% of total sugars were recovered from OSR straw. The inhibitors present in the pre-treated hydrolysate were acetic acid (2.94 g l-1), 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (0.04 g l-1) and furfural (0.98 g l-1). Subsequent enzymatic hydrolysis resulted in a digestibility of 95.4% after 72 h, compared to a digestibility of 27.1% for untreated OSR straw. Castro et al. [9] optimised the dilute acid pre-treatment of OSR straw using pre-treatment temperatures between 140 and 200oC, pretreatment times between 0 and 20 min and sulfuric acid concentrations between 0.5 and 2.0% (w/w). A mathematical model was used to predict the pre-treatment conditions that would result in a cellulose conversion efficiency of approximately 100%. The optimum conditions were predicted to be the application of temperature at 200oC for 27 min at an acid concentration of 0.40%. Mathew et al. [10] studied the dilute acid pre-treatment of OSR straw based on the concentration of glucose recovered after enzymatic hydrolysis. Under optimum pre-treatment conditions (5% (w/w) biomass loading, 2.5% (w/w) acid concentration and 90 min pre-treatment time) 81% of glucan was converted into glucose after 72 h of enzymatic hydrolysis. The production of bioethanol using immobilised cells has been well studied. However, previous research has focused on the use of either sugar cane or starch
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hydrolysate as substrate. The advantages of cell immobilisation over free cell fermentation for bioethanol production include a higher volumetric productivity due to higher cell density, enhanced yield and cell viability for repeated cycles of fermentation (Swain et al. [11]). The research presented compares the bioethanol yield and volumetric productivity obtained from the batch fermentation of OSR straw hydrolysate using free and immobilised cells of S. cerevisiae.

2.1 Microorganism and media S. cerevisiae Type I was grown at 30oC and maintained on agar slants at 4oC as described by Liu et al. [12]. S. cerevisiae was cultivated in 150 ml conical flasks with 50 ml growth medium (Glucose, 5.0; yeast extract, 0.5; peptone, 0.5; K2HPO4, 0.1; MgSO4. 7H2O, 0.1; expressed in g 100 ml-1) and incubated at 30oC in a shaking incubator at 150 rpm. After overnight incubation (108 cells ml-1) cells were harvested by centrifugation at 4000 rpm for 15 min and resuspended in 10 ml growth medium. 2.2 Sugar extraction from OSR straw OSR straw was pre-treated using the optimum dilute sulfuric acid pre-treatment conditions determined previously (Mathew et al. [10]). Following pre-treatment, the slurry was filtered, washed with purite water and the liquid fraction collected. The solid fraction was used for enzymatic hydrolysis using cellulase from Trichoderma ressei ATCC 26921 (25 FPU g-1 biomass) and -glucosidase from Aspergillus niger (70 CBU g-1 biomass) for 72 h, at 50oC and 5% biomass loading using sodium citrate buffer (pH 4.8). The hydrolysate was filtered using No.1 Whatman filter paper and liquid fraction was used for fermentation. 2.3 Immobilisation of yeast cells Lentikat was obtained from geniaLab (Germany) and prepared for immobilisation according to Bezbradica et al. [13] after melting at 90 3oC. S. cerevisiae cells were immobilised into Lentikat by mixing 10 ml of S. cerevisiae cell suspension with 40 ml of Lentikat liquid. The mixture was extruded onto petri dishes through a syringe fitted with a needle (1.25 x 40 mm). The petri dishes were left to dry in a laminar flow cabinet under a downwards vertical airstream at room temperature for approximately 2 h. The Lentikat discs were stabilised and re-swollen in 100 ml stabilising solution (geniaLab, Germany) for 2 h. Lentikat immobilised S. cerevisiae were allowed to proliferate through overnight incubation in 100 ml growth medium according to Liu et al. [12]. Lentikat was selected as an immobilisation support because of its mechanical strength.

2.4 Fermentation conditions 2.4.1 Bioethanol production from enzymatic hydrolysate using free and immobilised cells of S. cerevisiae Batch fermentation was completed using free and Lentikat immobilised cells of S. cerevisiae in 150 ml sterile conical flasks with 50 ml of fermentation medium (enzymatic hydrolysate with glucose concentration of 16 19 g l-1) for 24 h at 30 3oC and 150 rpm. The fermentation medium was composed of glucose, yeast extract 0.5 g 100 ml-1; peptone, 0.5 g 100 ml-1; K2HPO4, 0.1 g 100 ml-1 and MgSO4.7H2O, 0.1 g 100 ml-1. The fermentation medium was inoculated (10% w/v) either with immobilised or free cells. Samples (1 ml) were withdrawn from the fermentation medium after 2, 4, 6, 10 and 24h, and analysed to determine the glucose and bioethanol concentration. Batch fermentations were completed in triplicate. 2.4.2 Bioethanol production by immobilised cells of S. cerevisiae using acid pre-treatment and enzymatic hydrolysate as substrate Batch fermentation was completed using Lentikat immobilised cells of S. cerevisiae as per the method presented in section 2.4.1, but the fermentation medium was composed of the liquid fraction collected immediately following pre-treatment and the enzymatic hydrolysate. The sugars present in the pretreated hydrolysate were xylose, 7.46 g l-1; glucose, 1.77 g l-1; galactose, 1.35 g l-1; arabinose, 0.85 g l-1. The glucose concentration of the fermentation medium was adjusted to 23 g l-1 using pure glucose. 2.5 Analytical methods The concentration of bioethanol and glucose present in the fermentation media was analysed using HPLC fitted with a refractive index detector. HPLC analysis was completed according to NREL [14] laboratory analytical procedure. 2.6 Statistical analysis Statistical analysis was completed using Genstat 13th edition. The effect of immobilisation of S. cerevisiae in Lentikat supports and free cells was analysed separately by using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA).
3 Results
3.1 Bioethanol production from enzymatic hydrolysate using free and immobilised cells of S. cerevisiae Batch fermentation was completed using glucose extracted from the enzymatic hydrolysis of OSR straw as carbon source. Batch fermentation was completed over a 24 h time period and employed either free or Lentikat immobilised cells of S. cerevisiae (Figure. 1). The concentration of bioethanol produced after 24 h of fermentation was approximately 40% higher (p = 0.021) for immobilised cells
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30 25 20 Glucose (g/l ) 15 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 Time (h) 20 25
12 10 Ethanol (g/l) 8 6 4 2 0
Glucose - Free cell Ethanol - Free cell

Figure 1:
Glucose - Immo cell Ethanol - Immo cell
Glucose consumption and ethnaol production using free and immobilsed cells of S. cerevisiae.
(8.62 0.31 g l-1) compared to free cells (6.15 0.21 g l-1). This finding is supported by Swain et al. [11], who demonstrated a 6.7% increase in bioethanol yield when mahula flowers were fermented with cells immobilised in calcium alginate as opposed to free cells. Glucose was fully consumed within the 24 h fermentation time period; hence a lower bioethanol yield cannot be attributed to a reduced level of glucose uptake by free cells. The conversion of glucose to bioethanol was significantly faster with immobilised cells than with free cells. A maximum bioethanol concentration of 9.45 0.25 g l-1 was achieved within 4 h of fermentation when immobilised cells were used. This represents a glucose conversion efficiency of approximately 98% compared to 67% glucose conversion by free cells in the same time period. The final biomass concentration recorded in Swain et al. [11] was higher in free cell fermentation, suggesting glucose may have been diverted from bioethanol production in order to support cell growth. It took approximately 24 h for free cells to consume 99% of the initial glucose present in the medium, demonstrating cell immobilisation resulted in significantly enhanced volumetric productivity. The volumetric productivity of bioethanol fermentation using immobilised S. cerevisiae cells was 4.12 g l-1 h-1 compared to 1.69 g l-1 h-1 for free cells after 2 h. The volumetric productivity reduced to 0.26 g l-1 h-1 and 0.36 g l-1 h-1 for free and immobilised S. cerevisiae after 24 h of batch fermentation due to a lower concentration of glucose present in the fermentation medium. At the initial stages of batch fermentation (until 4 h), the volumetric productivity of immobilised S. cerevisiae cells was found to be approximately two to three times higher than that of free cells. According to Nedovic and Willaert [25], immobilised cells have less

hydrodynamic and mechanical stress compared to cells in suspension, which enables the cells to utilise more cellular energy for product formation, resulting an improvement in volumetric productivity. A decrease in bioethanol concentration was observed with free cells and immobilised cells between 6 and 24 h of fermentation. However statistical analysis suggested this was not a significant reduction (p = 0.289 for free cells and p = 0.224 for immobilised cells). The same trend was observed in a study conducted by Kuhad et al. [15], where the bioethanol concentration and bioethanol yield reduced between 16 and 24 h fermentation. The reduction in bioethanol concentration may be due to the oxidation of bioethanol to acetic acid (Christensen et al. [16]) or due to the formation of other by-products such as glycerol and butyric acid (as a result of contamination) (Cheng [17]). Another possible explanation is the consumption of accumulated bioethanol by S. cerevisiae that has adapted to simultaneously consume fermentable sugars and bioethanol (Ramon-Portugal et al. [18]). The maximum bioethanol yield obtained from free cells was 0.41 g bioethanol. g glucose-1 and that of immobilised cells was 0.49 g bioethanol. g glucose -1. These yields are less than the stoichiometric bioethanol yield of 0.51 g bioethanol. g glucose-1. The lower bioethanol yield observed may have been due to the use of glucose for cell growth during fermentation, essentially diverting substrate from bioethanol production. The maximum theoretical bioethanol conversion (%) was found to be 80.51% after 10 h of fermentation with free cells and 95.66% after 4 h of fermentation with immobilised cells. Behera et al. [19] studied the production of bioethanol from mahula flowers using S. cerevisiae (strain CTCRI) cells either free in solution or immobilised in agar-agar or calcium alginate. Behera et al. [19] reported theoretical bioethanol conversions of 87%, 93% and 95% for free cell, cells immobilised in agar-agar and calcium alginate, respectively after 96 h of fermentation. Bioethanol conversion (%) with immobilised S. cerevisiae cells in the current study was found to be approximately equal to that of Behera et al. [19]. In contrast to this, Rakin et al. [20] compared bioethanol production from corn meal hydrolysate using S. cerevisiae var. ellipsoideus immobilised into calcium alginate and Lentikat. S. cerevisiae var. ellipsoideus immobilised in calcium alginate resulted in a higher theoretical bioethanol yield of 111% compared to 77% for cell immobilised in Lentikat discs. In comparison to free cells, immobilised cells were found to result in higher bioethanol concentrations and improved volumetric productivity of batch fermentation by increasing the local population density of cells (Yu et al. [21]; Najafpour et al. [22]). 3.2 Bioethanol production by immobilised cells of S. cerevisiae using acid pre-treatment and enzymatic hydrolysate as substrate Batch fermentation was conducted over a 24 h time period using fermentable sugars extracted from pre-treatment and hydrolysis of OSR straw (i.e. acid pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis hydrolysate were combined). The results are shown in figure 2. The bioethanol concentration obtained after 24 h of batch fermentation from acid and enzymatic hydrolysate fermentation medium was
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8.66 0.09 g l-1. A maximum bioethanol concentration of 9.26 0.04 g l-1 was obtained after 6 h of fermentation. Similarly to when enzymatic hydrolysate was used as sole substrate, there was a significant reduction (p = 0.044) in bioethanol concentration between 6 and 24 h of batch fermentation. There was no significant difference observed (p = 0.873) in the concentration of bioethanol produced when enzymatic hydrolysate only and acid pre-treatment and enzymatic hydrolysate were used as substrate, even though the initial concentration of fermentable sugars was higher in the latter.
Figure 2:
Glucose consumption and bioethanol production from enzymatic hydrolysate, acid and enzymatic hydrolysate using immobilised S. cerevisiae cells.
A bioethanol yield of 0.39 g bioethanol g glucose-1 was achieved with immobilised cells using acid pre-treatment and enzymatic hydrolysate as substrate. A yield of 0.49 g bioethanol g glucose-1 was obtained for immobilised cells when enzymatic hydrolysate was used as substrate. The lower bioethanol yield observed when acid and enzymatic hydrolysate was added to the fermentation medium may have been due to the presence of inhibitors such as acetic acid, hydroxymethylfurfural (HMF) and furfural that are produced during acid pre-treatment and which were present in the pre-treatment hydrolysate. These products can inhibit bioethanol production by reducing the activity of several enzymes such as alcohol dehydrogenase, aldehyde dehydrogenase and pyruvate dehydrogenase (Modig et al. [23]). The volumetric bioethanol productivity of immobilised cells when acid and enzymatic hydrolysate was added to the fermentation medium was 2.24 g l-1 hafter 4 h of batch fermentation. After 24 h of fermentation, the volumetric 1 bioethanol productivity was reduced to 0.36 g l-1 h-1. This is similar to the volumetric bioethanol productivity observed after 24 h, for free and immobilised

cells of S. cerevisiae using enzymatic hydrolysate (0.26 and 0.36 g l-1 h-1, respectively). Behera et al. [19] reported volumetric bioethanol productivities of 0.258, 0.262 and 0.268 g l-1 h-1, for cells free in solution, and immobilised in agar-agar and calcium alginate, respectively. The current study demonstrates higher bioethanol productivity in immobilised fermentation compared to Behera et al. [19] whereas the volumetric productivity of free cells was found to be similar to the study conducted by Behera et al. [19]. Petersson et al. [24] demonstrated a bioethanol productivity of 0.91 g l-1h-1 from simultaneous saccharification and fermentation of wet oxidised OSR straw. The ethanol productivity in the current study was found to be lower due to a lower concentration of glucose present in the fermentation medium initially. From the current study, the maximum theoretical bioethanol yield from acid and enzymatic hydrolysate was approximately 76%, which is less than the maximum theoretical bioethanol yield observed from free cells in suspension using enzymatic hydrolysate as fermentation medium. Hence the current study concluded that fermentation using enzymatic hydrolysate would be better than combined use of pre-treatment and enzymatic hydrolysate for bioethanol production. Potentially the bioethanol yield obtained when pre-treatment hydrolysate is used as carbon source could be increased through the fermentation of pentose sugars.
4 Conclusion
Bioethanol production from OSR straw using dilute acid pre-treatment was studied using S. cerevisiae cells free in suspension and immobilised in Lentikat discs. Batch fermentation with enzymatic hydrolysate demonstrated the immobilisation of S. cerevisiae cells in Lentikat discs resulted in improved volumetric productivity and a higher concentration of bioethanol (9.47 0.27 g l-1) than when cells free in suspension were used (6.73 0.18 g l-1). Batch fermentation of pre-treatment and enzymatic hydrolysate using Lentikat immobilised cells did not improve the concentration of bioethanol produced (9.26 0.04 g l-1).
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[1] United States Energy Information Administration (USEIA). International energy statistics, 1000 Independence Ave., SW, Washington, DC 20585, http://www.eia.gov/ [2] Balat, M., Production of bioethanol from lignocellulosic materials via biochemical pathway: A review. Energy Conversion and Management, 52, pp. 858-875, 2011. [3] Lora, EES., Palacio, JCE., Rocha, MH., Reno, MLG., Venturini, OJ., Olmo, OA., Issues to consider, existing tools and constraints in biofuels sustainability assessments, Energy, Article in press, 2010. [4] Newman R. A trial burn of rape straw and whole crops harvested for energy use to assess efficiency implications B/U1/00768/00/00
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http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/fi le14920.pdf Larson, D. E. Biofuel production technologies: status, prospects and implications for trade and development, united conference on trade and development UNCTAD/DITC/TED/2007/10, http://www.unctad.org/en/docs/ditcted200710_en.pdf Mosier, N., Wyman, C., Dale, B., Elander, R., Holtzapple, Y. Y. L. M., Ladisch, M., Features of promising technologies for pre-treatment of lignocellulosic biomass. Bioresource Technology, 96, pp. 673686, 2005. Palmqvist, E. & Hahn-Hagerdal, B., Fermentation of lignocellulosic hydrolysates. II:inhibitors and mechanisms of inhibition. Bioresource Technology, 74, pp. 2533, 2000. Jeong, TS., Byung, HU., Jun-Seok, K., Kyeong-Keun, O., Optimizing dilute acid pre-treatment of rapeseed straw for extraction of hemicellulose, Applied Biochemistry and Biotechnology, 161, pp. 22-33. 2010. Castro, E., Diaz, MJ., Cara, C., Ruiz, E., Romero, I., Moya M., Dilute acid pre-treatment of rapeseed straw for fermentable sugar generation, Bioresource Technology, 102, pp. 1270-1276, 2011. Mathew, A.K., Humphries, A.C., Chaney, K., Crook, M., Dilute acid pretreatment of Oilseed rape straw for bioethanol production. Renewable Energy. Article in press, .doi:10.1016/j.renene. 2011.01.030, 2011. Swain, MR., Kar, S., Sahoo, AK., Ray, RC., Ethanol fermentation of mahula (Madhuca latifolia L.) flowers using free and immobilized yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Microbiology Journal Research, 162, pp. 9398, 2007. Liu R, Li J., Shen, F., Refining bioethanol from stalk juice of sweet sorghum by immobilised yeast fermentation, Renewable Energy 33, pp.1130-1135, 2008. Bezbradica, D., Obradovic, B., Leskosek-Cukalovic, I., Bugarski, B., Nedovic, V., Immobilisation of yeast cells in PVA particles for beer production, Process Chemistry, 42(9), pp. 1348-1351, 2007. National renewable energy laboratory, http://www.nrel.gov/biomass/ Kuhad, RC., Gupta, R., Khasa, YP., Singh, A., Bioethanol production from Lantana camara (red sage): pre-treatment, saccharification and fermentation, Bioresource Technology , 101, pp. 8348-8354, 2010. Christensen, CH., Jorgensen, B., Rass-Hansen, J., Egeblad, K., Madsen, R., Kiltgaard, SK., Hansen, SM., Hansen, MR., Andersen, HC., Riisager, A.. Formation of acetic acid by aqueous phase oxidation of ethanol with air in the presence of heterogeneous gold catalyst, Angewandte Chemie International Edition, 45, pp. 4648-4651, 2006. Cheng, J., Biomass to renewable energy processes, CRC press, Taylor & Francis group, pp. 240-241, 2009. Ramon-Portugal, F., Pingaud, H., Strehaiano, P., Metabolic transition step from ethanol consumption to sugar/ethanol, Biotechnology Letters, 26, pp. 1671-1674, 2004.

[19] Behera, S., Kar, S., Mohanty, RC., Ray, RC., Comparative study of bioethanol production from mahula (Madhuca latifolia L.) flowers by Saccharomyces Cerevisiae cells immobilised in agar-agar and Ca-alginate matrices. Applied Energy, 87, pp. 96 100, 2010. [20] Rakin M, Mojovic L, Nikolic S, Vukasinovic M, Nedovic V. Bioethanol production by immobilised Saccharomyces Cerevisiae var. ellipsoideus cells. African Journal of Biotechnology, 8, pp. 464-471, 2009. [21] Yu, J., Zhang, X., Tan, T., An novel immobilisation method of Saccharomyces cerevisiae to sorghum bagasse for ethanol production, Journal of Biotechnology, 129, pp. 415-420, 2007. [22] Najafpour, G., Younesi, H., Ku, S., Ku, I., Ethanol fermentation in an immobilised cell reactor using Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Bioresource Technology, 92, pp. 251 260, 2004. [23] Modig, T., Liden, G., Taherzadeh, M.J., Inhibition effects of furfural on alcohol dehydrogenase, aldehyde dehydrogenase and pyruvate dehydrogenase. Biochemical Journal, 363, pp. 769776, 2002. [24] Petersson, A., Thomsen, M.H., Nielsen, H.H. and Thomsen, A.B., Potential bioethanol and biogas production using lignocellulosic biomass from winter rye, oilseed rape, faba been, Biomass and Bioenergy, 3, pp. 812-819, 2007. [25] Nedovic, V. & Willaert R., Applications of cell immobilisation biotechnology, Springer publications, ISBN: 978-1-4020-3229-5, 2005.
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Latent heat thermal energy storage systems in lightweight construction: review of PCM applications in Solar Decathlon houses
E. Rodrguez-Ubias, L. Ruz-Valero, S. V. Snchez & F. J. Neila Gonzlez
Department of Building Technology, School of Architecture, Technical University of Madrid, Spain
Abstract
The use of thermal mass in buildings is an effective way to improve the buildings interior comfort in places with high diurnal temperature variation. Combined with other passive strategies, thermal mass can play an important role in the energy efficiency of the building, minimizing the necessity of the traditional conditioning systems. However contemporary construction tends to industrializing light weight systems with low thermal mass. An innovative way to add the thermal mass` benefits to the buildings is the use of the latent heat thermal storage capacity of the Phase Change Materials (PCM). In the Solar Decathlon, solar houses competition organized by the United States Department of Energy. The houses are tested and monitored in Washington DC, where the use of short term thermal storage systems is adequate to maintain the interior comfort and reduce energy consumption, therefore many teams had incorporated PCM in theirs industrialized lightweight houses. In this paper the solutions on the application of PCM used in this competition are discussed. Keywords: PCM, latent heat, energy storage, solar decathlon, TES.
1 Introduction
Solar Decathlon (SD) is a biennial international competition and public event organized by the U.S. Department of Energys, in which 20 university teams from around the world compete to design, build, and operate solar-powered houses that are cost-effective, energy-efficient, and attractive [1, 2]. The SD

houses should be transported from the universities sites and assemble in only six days in the National Mall in Washington DC. For that reason the teams develop lightweight and highly industrialized prototypes. The main disadvantage of this kind of construction is their low thermal mass, which causes them to have large temperature fluctuations follow the external cooling or heating loads [3]. Adding thermal mass to SD houses is an effective way of reducing its heating and cooling load especially in a location with large daily temperature variation, as Washington DC [4]. The major advantages of the Phase Change Materials (PCM) are their large heat storage capacity and their isothermal behaviour during the charging and discharging process [5]. That mean that PCM performs similar to the traditional thermal mass materials, but they are lighter, more flexible and compact, with greater capacity for heat storage and with specific heat phase change temperatures, that permits to select optimum set point. Knowing PCM characteristics and its compatibility with the industrialized lightweight construction, participant teams, had developed or applied innovative latent heat thermal storage systems using these materials. The present study includes all SD houses that in their documentation or in the competition prototypes have latent heat thermal energy storage systems.
2 Study description and classification of PCM applications

The SD houses PCM applications have been studied and classified into four main aspects: the first relating to the PCM location, the second to the type of system, the third to the type of PCM and its encapsulation and the fourth relating to support strategies. 2.1 PCM location Baggs and Mortensen [6] in their design guide suggest that the best place for thermal mass is the floor, where it is possible to take advantage of direct solar gain through the glazing. And the next preference locations are the interior partition and the internal skin of external insulated walls. The PCM could be located in any place of the building depending on the purpose [5, 7], four locations have been identified in this study: floor, wall (internal skin), ceiling and furniture. 2.2 System types Heating and cooling PCM systems are classified in passive and actives. Passive when no mechanical or active systems are used; and active when fans or pumping mechanisms are used to move or re-circulated air or liquids. 2.3 PCM and its encapsulation The type of PCM selection is primarily linked to the melting temperature required. In the case of buildings thermal conditioning with temperature ranges
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between 20 and 30C, salt hydrates, paraffin and fatty acids can be used. The salt hydrates, or eutectic mixtures of salt hydrates, are inorganic salts with water of crystallization, while the paraffin (hydrocarbon compounds) and the fatty acid are organic substances. All these PCM change from solid to liquid and vice versa, so they need to be encapsulated or integrated in a matrix to prevent leakage. There are a large variety of encapsulating systems with very different sizes, geometries and materials. The micro-encapsulation has greatly expanded the PCM integration possibilities in building materials and systems [5, 7]. 2.4 Support strategies PCM, as the thermal mass, can substantially reduce the use in active heating and cooling systems when is correctly used and combined with passive and semipassive design strategies. As an example, several studies have shown that thermal mass together with night ventilation may reduce the indoor maximum temperature, by 26C [8, 9]. The passive strategies permit to take advance of the environmental conditions and resources, and the actives elements could accelerate heat exchange across the surface of the PCM or help to complete their charge-discharge cycles. Some support strategies are: direct and indirect sun gains, natural ventilation, night radiation and free-cooling [10].
3 Solar Decathlon houses

The Case Studies are present follow the first two elements of study: Location of PCM and Type of System. And each house description includes the main elements of the systems, the PCM type, its encapsulation type, the passive or semi-passive strategies used and the functioning in cooling and heating mode. 3.1 Floor application 3.1.1 Floor application: passive systems Ontario/BC House (2009).The system designed by the Ontario team consists on macro-encapsulated PCM embedded in the floor assembly, underneath the engineered hardwood flooring (see Fig. 1a). The team used a commercial PCM, DELTA-COOL 21. The Delta-Cool system consists on salt hydrate PCM encapsulated in 15 mm thick polypropylene panels. This PCM is engineered to melt at 24C and solidify at 22C and each panel has an approximate heat storage capacity of 62.6 kWh. A total of 62.1 m2 of PCM panels where installed, with a latent heat capacity of 158 kJ/kg [11]. In winter days the PCM absorbs the thermal energy directly from the sunlight falling on the floor, and in summer the PCM reduces the peak cooling load by taking off the excess heat during the day and releasing it at night when it can be ventilated away by cool night air. Building energy simulations predicted that the house active shading, its glazing and the PCM system could effectively eliminate cooling loads and reduce heating loads to 45%, while also providing ample daylight and reducing the need for artificial light while the sun is out [12, 13].

3.1.2 Floor application: active systems Canadian Solar House (2005). This house has a Tromble wall and an active thermal energy storage system, designed by the team, based on PCM-soaked ceramic bricks placed in 7 cm cavities under the floor finishing. Ordinary bricks were dipped on a mix of PCM, 48% butyl stearate 50% propyl palmitate 2% fat acid [14]. The hot air passing behind the house PV/T system is used to pre-heat domestic hot water, to improve the heat pump efficiency and to storage heat at PCM floor system. In cooling situation, the night cool air is drawing through the brick-PCM storage system in order to reduce the cooling load the following day. In heating situation, the house is heated by the direct solar gains, the effect of the Tromble wall and the warm air of the PV/Thermal panels. In specific moment when the semi-passive system is not enough to maintain the house in comfort, the warn air from the PV is used as the heat source of the heat pump in order to increase the coefficient of performance. UPM -Technical University of Madrid (2005). The Madrid Team placed its active PCM system in the raised floor plenum. A eutectic hydrocarbon mix gel was encapsulated in blow molded HDPE containers. They also filled the raised floor tiles with PCM to take advantage of the direct sun radiation. (See Fig. 1b.) The system could work as passive one, but forced air improves the thermal exchange and increases efficacy of the system [15]. The house automation system controls periods when the fans must operates, the direction of the air flow as well as the opening of house windows for cross ventilation and the activation of the peltier dehumidification system [16]. In the winter days, the gels melt (storage heat) by direct solar gain of the south glazing faade and by interior warn air recirculation. This heat is released later, helping to maintain the house in comfort even when sun is not present. In summer, cool night air is force to circulate in the floor plenum solidifying the PCM gels and during the day the PCM acts as a heat sink which absorbs the heat excess, minimizing the house overheating [16]. Rhode Island School of Design (2005). This house has two thermal energy storage boxes, the hot and the cold, both connected to the house radiant ceiling panels. In each box there are blow molded HDPE containers filled with eutectic base solution (PCM) and copper pipes circuits for water recirculation. (See Fig. 1c.) The copper piping array use thick aluminum heat transfer plates to give heat to the PCMs for storage, and to take it back when needed. In heating mode, solar thermal energy is storage in the PCM hot box during the day for usage at night or very cloudy weather, the system draws heat back off the PCMs and uses it to
a. SD2009 Ontario
b. SD2005 UPM
c. SD2005 Rhode Island
Figure 1:
Floor systems.
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heat the house. And in cooling mode, night cool air discharges the PCM that perform as a heat sink to remove the heat excess and help to maintain the house cool. It is a very efficient system; just require energy for small hydronic variable speed pumping system [17]. UPM - Technical University of Madrid (2007). This house was designed making use of the advantages of the systems of Madrid 2005 house and trying to improve some elements of the previous proposals. In the floor plenum were place thermal batteries using gel type eutectic mix PCM, but instead of HDPE containers, they design a multi-tubes encapsulation to improve the PCM rates of charging and discharging of energy [18]. The interior pipes are for water recirculation and the exteriors are filled with PCM. The metal encapsulation improves the thermal conductivity of the system and the tubular shape increases the exchange surface. In heating mode, during the day the direct sun contribution is used (air circulation) to heat the house, as well as, the surplus of heat water produced by the solar thermal panels is used to heat the house and to store heat in the thermal batteries. When cooling is necessary, the night refrigeration (air circulation) and the night radiation (water circulation) are used to solidify the PCM and to prepare them to extract the heat of the following day. The water and air recirculation permits take advance of the removable energy resources and ensure the correct charge and discharge of the PCM [19]. (The system was not installed in the competition prototype.) 3.2 Walls applications 3.3 Walls application: passive systems Kansas Project Solar House (2007). The system consists of the PCM incorporation in Structural Insulated Panels (SIP). The SIPs are composite building materials that consist of an insulating layer of rigid polymer foam sandwiched between two layers of structural board. The PCM is encapsulated in pipes that are placed in the interior of the insulation layer (see Fig. 2a). With these panels the team constructed both the walls and the roof of the house. This new system, like many others of the Solar Decathlon, has been patented [20]. Penn State (2009). In this house was installed a storage solution developed by Phase Change Energy Solutions, Inc. (PCES), named ThermaMat. The PCM used is obtained from a residue of biodiesel called BioPCM 23oC [21]. This PCM is encapsulated in a pouched mat (see Fig. 2b). The encapsulation material is a polyfilm with flame retardant properties. The mats were placed between the walls framing studs directly behind standard plasterboard [22]. This solution was also used in the ceiling. Team Germany (2009). This Germany house, as it predecessor in 2007, uses micro-encapsulated PCM technology integrated in drywall panels [23]. Their used SmartBoard panels a commercial product of Knauf. These gypsum boards contain Micronal microscopic polymer spheres (2 to 20 mc) filled with paraffin wax developed by BASF. The micro encapsulation permits an effective integration of PCM in the construction materials and improved the convection

heat transfer by increasing the exchange surface [18]. This house also has an active PCM system at ceiling, see detail on section 3.5.2. 3.4 Walls application: active systems Massachusetts Dartmouth (2005). This house was equipped modular PCM thermal storage panels, designed to fit between the studs. They used 24 Enerphase panels, molded black polyethylene modules (36x56x5cm) filled with Calsium Chloride Hexahydrate TESC-81, with phase changing at is 27oC. Enerphase panels were one of the first PCM products for building thermal comfort in the market, Dow Chemical (See Fig. 2c). The panels were placed inner the south wall and under the windows. The house was equipped with a smart control system and used a combination of forced-air heat exchange, passing intake air by the phase change material to improve the efficacy of the thermal storage system.
a. SD2007 Kansas
b. SD2009 Penn State
c. SD2005 Massachusetts
Figure 2: 3.5 Ceiling applications
Wall systems.
3.5.1 Ceiling applications: passive systems Spain Team (2009). The Spain Team placed Energain, PCM reflective panels, behind the ceiling finishing. This is the first time that Energain panels are used in the Competition [24]. This panels are a mixture of ethylene based polymer (40%) designed by DuPont and paraffin wax PCM (60%) laminated on both sides with a 130 m aluminum sheet [25]. This panel has a double function, thermal energy storage (PCM) and a reflective radiation barrier (aluminum) that help to maintain the heat in the house interior. (See Fig 3a.) 3.5.2 Ceiling applications: active systems Technische Universitat Darmstadt (2007). This is the first house that has used micro-encapsulated PCM in the SD. The team used Smartboard, commercial gypsum boards of Knauf, with a radiant ceiling manufactures for Ilkazell (see Fig. 3b). In winter conditions, the solar thermal collector hot water is piped from the hot water tank to the PCM radiant system maintaining the houses interior in comfort. During the summer day cold water is piped from the cold water tank through the PCM radiant ceiling, cooling the house. At summer
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night, heated water is piped onto the roof PV panels to an evaporative heat loss, once cooled is piped back to the cold water tank [26]. Team Germany (2009). In addition to PCM drywalls, this team designed an active system that was placed in four 11m long canals with a section of 25 cm x 35 cm, insulated with 1-cm-vacuum panels. Each canal is filled with PCM (salt-hydrate) encapsulate in polycarbonate profile, and are equipped with a ventilation fan, grilles and temperature sensors. The PCM used is Delta Cool 28 by Dorken [23]. (See Fig. 3c.) The system can be regulated due it is in separated zone, different to the house interior, and the variable speed built-in fans and the ventilation flaps which allow operated with either interior or exterior air. The system capacity is equivalent to the energy demand for one day of cooling and its coefficient of performance varies from 9 to 15 depend on the ambient conditions. In cooling mode, during the day mode the interior air circulates through the ceiling and decreases its temperature, and in night mode the cool exterior air blows through the ceiling and discharges the PCM. [27, 28].
a. SD2009 UPM
b. SD2007 Darmstadt
c. SD2009 Team Germany
Figure 3: 3.6 Furniture applications
Ceiling systems.
3.6.1 Furniture applications: active systems UPM - Technical University of Madrid (2007). The Madrid Team, in addition of the under floor thermal storage system, developed an active system to be placed underneath of the furniture, on its bases. For its houses the system was designed to be located in the bases of the beds and living room furniture. The Box-type design of the furniture facilitates to incorporate grates, fans and macroencapsulated eutectic mix gel PCM [29]. (The system was not installed in the competition prototype.) 3.7 PCM application recap Fig. 4 summarizes the latent heat thermal storage applications of the American Solar Decathlon houses, indicating the location, the system type and a brief description system including the PCM used.
Figure 4:
PCM applications in the SD.
4 Discussion
4.1 PCM location Floor Passive. Applications used in the floor are related to the location of traditional thermal mass, which trying to take advantage of direct solar gain through the glazing, this is the case with teams of Ontario / BC (2009) and raised floor slabs UPM Team (2005). Floor Active. Three of the four PCM applications on 2005 were active floor systems. The Canadian and the UPM teams installed fans to accelerate heat exchange by increasing the air movement across the surface of the PCM. The Rhode Island team used the same macro-encapsulation that UPM, but its system has two independent deposits (cold and hot) and a cooper pipes circuits with water re-circulation. UPM in 2007 designed the last floor active system presented in the completion, which use air and water recirculation.
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Wall and Ceiling Passive. The four different solutions present could be used for wall, interior partitions or ceiling. Three fit in custom lightweight multilayer construction: Smartboard (Darmstadt), Energain (UPM) and BioPCM (Penn State). All three are easily integrated, the Smartboard is a gypsum panel that is placed as to traditional ones, and the Energain, reflective panels, and BioPCM, blankets are easily placed just behind the drywall. The fourth was present by Kansas team and linked is to a patent of Sandwich Insulated Panel with PCM. Wall Active. Only one active system was presented at wall. The Massachusetts team designed with force air recirculation to improve the heat exchanger taking advantage of the south windows hot air. Ceiling Active. The two ceiling active systems have been presented by the Germany teams. Their 2007 house radiant ceiling that incorporate drywall with PCM. The 2009 house present an application that looks as an evolution of the floor active system that UPM presented in 2005, big deposits with macroencapsulated PCM with air re-circulation. Furniture. But no many furniture solutions have been proposed for improved the interior space temperature, one of this was the office furniture, PlusICE, was developed in 2005 by UK based company EPS Ltd in collaboration with Climator which incorporate the PCM in a passive way. The solution proposed by the UPM team in 2007 was a compact active PCM system integrated in the base of the furniture, that was designed to improved the heat transfer and solve problems of the passive systems. The advantage of the furniture systems is that they can be used in new construction and in existing building. 4.2 Evolution in the different competitions Location. There have been five applications for floor and an equal number for ceilings; however, applications on the floor have been diminished, while the ceiling ones increase (see Fig. 5a). The teams do not justify the location of their systems, but can be seen that the trend to use the ceiling coincides with the appearance of new materials that integrate PCM and with that the recent applications are designed primarily to cool the space. Type of application. In 2005, the first time in the competition using PCM, the four systems presented were assisted by fans or pumps, active elements. In the last competition only one of the five systems had active elements (see Fig. 5b). The appearance on the market from 2007 of panels or mats with PCM that can be easily integrated to the lightweight multilayer construction has contributed to this trend. Type of PCM. Macro and micro encapsulated paraffin have been the PCM most used, followed by macro-capsules of hydrated salts (see Fig.5c). Nonparaffin organic compounds were used in 2005 by Team Canada and in 2009 by Penn State Team, which used a substance obtained from a residue of biodiesel. Phase change temperature. The selected PCM have had different melting temperatures, depending on if the system was designed principally to avoid the overheating or the excessive cold. Generally, the fusion temperatures have been between 22 and 27 C; four teams with temperature between 22 and 24C, four between 25 and 27 C. One case out of these ranges is the system presented by

Rhode Island house, which had two thermal deposits: the cold, whose materials that change phase at 15C and the hot, with a phase change at 58C. Encapsulation. In the competition PCM has been integrated in many different ways, soaked by the material (only in 2005), macro-encapsulated, microencapsulated and molecular-encapsulated. The latter one allows a very high PCM concentration in a polymeric compound.
Figure 5:
Location, application and PCM type charts.
5 Conclusions
The present review was focused on the latent heat thermal energy storage application in the Solar Decathlon houses. The fact that in this competition, which awards the thermal comfort and the energy efficiency, many teams incorporate PCM applications, demonstrates the use of these substances improves the energy performance of lightweight multilayer construction, as houses simulations shown. However, since the diversity of the houses and with only one week of monitoring, it is not possible to draw specific conclusions on the applications used. It would be necessary to monitor the houses for much time to be able to confirm the results of his simulations. The Solar Decathlon competition has allowed universities around the world move forward in their research on the latent heat storage and integration of the PCM in light construction. Universities have moved from the experimental cells to build real houses, integrating the industry in this process. In the past three competitions, innovative applications have been presented with organic and inorganic PCM, macro and micro encapsulations, passive or with the assistant of active elements, and taking advantage of the environment resources as a free-cooling or night radiation.
References
[1] Warner, C., Farrar-Nagy, S., Wassmer, M., Stafford, B., King, R., Vega Sanchez, S., Rodriguez Ubias, E., Cronemberger, J. & Serra MariaTome, J., The 2009 Department of Energy Solar Decathlon and the 2010 European Solar Decathlonexpanding the global reach of zero energy
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homes through collegiate competitions. 2009 34th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA, 2009. Solar Decathlon Information. Available from: http://www.solardecathlon.gov Kuznik, F., Virgone, J. & Johannes, K., In-situ study of thermal comfort enhancement in a renovated building equipped with phase change material wallboard. Renewable Energy 36, pp. 1458-1462, 2011. Zhu, L., Hurt, R., Correia, D., & Boehm, R. Detailed energy saving performance analyses on thermal mass walls demonstrated in a zero energy house. Energy and Buildings, 41(3), pp. 303-310, 2009. Mehling, H. & Cabeza, L., Heat and cool storage with PCM: An up to date introduction in to basics and applications. Springer Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2008. Baggs, D. & Mortensen, N., Thermal Mass in Building Design. BDP Environmental Design Guide. 2006. Cabeza, L., Castell, A., Barrenechea, C., Gracia, A. & Fernndez, A., Materials used as PCM in thermal energy storage in buildings: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 15, pp. 16751695, 2011. Givoni, B., Effectiveness of mass and night ventilation in lowering the indoor daytime temperatures. Part I: 1993 experimental periods, Energy and Buildings 28, pp. 25-32, 1998. Shaviv, E., Yezioro, A. & Capeluto, I.G., Thermal mass and night ventilation as passive cooling design strategy, Renewable Energy 24, pp. 445452, 2001. Aroul Raj, A. &Velraj, R., Review on free cooling of buildings using phase change materials. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 14, pp. 28192829, 2010. Barhydt, L., The North House as Responsive Architecture: Designing for Interaction between Building, Inhabitant, and Environment. Master of Architecture Thesis. University of Waterloo. Ontario, 2010. Team Ontario/BC., North House: Project Manual, 2009 Solar Decathlon Competition, Washington DC, 2009. Lauren B., The North House as Responsive Architecture: Designing for Interaction between Building, Inhabitant, and Environment. Master of Architecture Thesis. University of Waterloo, Ontario, 2010. Passini, M. & Athienitis, A., Systems design of the Canadian Solar Decathlon House. ASHRAE Transactions, Vol. 112, Pt. 2, 2006. Rodrguez-Ubias, E., Cronemberger, J., Vega Snchez, S. & Garca Santos, A., Investigacin de los materiales de cambio de fase en las universidades espaolas. III Jornadas Sobre Investigacin en Arquitectura y Urbanismo, Madrid, July 17, 2009. Neila Gonzlez, J., Acha Romn, C., Higueras Garca, E. & Bedoya Frutos, C., Los Materiales de Cambio de Fase (MCF) empleados para la acumulacin de energa en la arquitectura. Su aplicacin en el prototipo Magic Box. Materiales de Construccin, Volume 58, No 291, 2008.

[17] Lipinski, D., Winning Teams and Innovative Technologies from the 2005 Solar Decathlon, U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Science, November 2, 2005. [18] Agyenim, F., Hewitt, N., Eames, P. & Smyth, M., A review of materials, heat transfer and phase change problem formulation for latent heat thermal energy storage systems (LHTESS). Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 14, pp. 615628, 2010. [19] UPM Team, Casa Solar: Project Manual. 2007 Solar Decathlon, Washington, 2007. [20] Medina, M., Phase-Change Structural Insulated Panels and Walls. United States Patent Application Publication. US2005/005982 A1, 2005 [21] Muruganantham, K., Phelan P., Horwath, P., Ludlam, D. & McDonald, T., Experimental investigation of a bio-based Phase Change Material to improve building energy performance. Proceedings of ASME 2010 4th International Conference on Energy Sustainability, Phoenix, Arizona, USA, May 17-22, 2010. [22] Witmer, L. Penn state 2009 Solar Decathlon Project Manual. Energy Analysis Results and Discussion, pp. 324-334, 2009. [23] Team Germany, SurPlus House: Project Manual. Solar Decathlon 2009, Washington DC, 2009. [24] Adell Argiles, J. M., The Black & White House and its technical innovations. 5ta Expo Energa: Technical Workshop on Renewable Energy Innovative Technologies for the Building Sector. Lisbon, November, 2010. [25] Agyenim, F., Hewitt, N., Eames, P. & Smyth, M., A review of materials, heat transfer and phase change problem formulation for latent heat thermal energy storage systems (LHTESS), Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 14, 2010. [26] Hegger, M. (ed.), Sunny Times: Solar Decathlon House Team Deutschland 2007. Verlag Muller + Busmann KG, Wuppertal, 2008. [27] Dammel, F., Steiner, L. & Zeumer, M., Die Klimadecke des surPLUShome. Wissenschaftsmagazin der TU Darmstadt, pp. 42-47. Spring 2010. [28] El khouli, S., Huser als Kraftwerke: Solar Decathlon 2007+2009. Forum Energie Zurich, March 2009. [29] UPM Team, Casa Solar: Construction drawings. 2007 Solar Decathlon, Washington, 2007.
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Testing for oil saving technological changes in ARDL models of demand for oil in G7 and BRICs
M. Asali
Petroleum Studies Department, Research Division, OPEC, Vienna, Austria
Abstract
In recent years, global growth of demand for oil has been mainly due to the increasing demand for energy in major developing nations, namely China, India and Brazil, fueled by their exceptional economic performance. On the other hand, in OECD and particularly in the G7 countries, where more than 70% of OECD demand for oil is consumed, demand for oil has been stagnant and seems to have plateaued. In fact, per capita, consumption for oil in these countries has been diminishing in recent years. Given the rising share of the major developing economies in the global demand for oil it is important to have a clear idea about their likely future paths of (per capita) demand for oil. A closely related issue is whether energy and oil efficiency in these economies are price induced or could be considered an exogenous process. In this paper an attempt is made to employ time-series, auto regressive error correction modeling technique to estimate short and long run income and price elasticitys of demand for oil in G7 and the BRICs, (Brazil, Russia, India and China). We have also tested for oil saving technological changes in these economies. This is done by making use of a price decomposition approach and testing for existence of deterministic trend in the estimated demand for oil models. The study yields a set of GDP and price elasticitys of demand for oil in G7 and the BRICs comparable to income and price elasticitys of demand for oil in other studies. Keywords: demand for oil, GDP and price elasticitys, technological changes.
1 Introduction
In this study an attempt is made to estimate (per capita) income and price elasticitys of demand for oil in G7 and BRICs and to see whether the estimated models could shed light on the way the oil saving technological changes impact demand for oil in these economies. The importance of the issue stems from the fact that while G7 countries consume more than 70% of OECD total oil consumption, incremental demand for oil comes mainly from developing countries particularly China and India with their prominent importance for the global oil markets due to their exceptional economic performance. We have used error correction and ARDL modelling techniques for these purposes. Application of econometric and time series methods have been the traditional approaches to modeling demand for energy and oil. A meaningful application of the time series techniques to modeling demand for oil, however, requires long historical observations on energy consumption, population, income and prices. The starting point of this approach is formulation of suitable energy demand equations, normally derived as decision rules of optimizing households or firms (Pindyck [1], and Pesaran et al. [2]). Huntington [3] in his review of the response surface of several models developed to investigate demand for oil in OECD propose a log-linear, lag-adjustment demand specification consistent with the structure of most models of demand for oil appeared in the literature. This formulation assumes that oil demand responds immediately to changes in income but only gradually to changes in prices. Technical progress, if present, reduces demand at a constant rate in each period and hence operates like income variable. Here we follow the convenient approach of modeling demand for oil as a function of income and oil prices. In particular we employ linear models and use quarterly time series from 1990Q1 to 2010Q4 to estimate GDP and price elasticitys of demand for oil in G7 and BRICs. To investigate the existence of exogenous oil saving technological changes we test for deterministic linear trends in our time series models. We also make use of price decomposition approach to test for significance of asymmetric response to prices changes in demand for oil in these economies that can be considered as signs of price induced oil saving technological changes in these countries. An asymmetric relationship between oil price and demand for oil may stem from various sources such as irreversibility of improved technological changes, durability of attributes of the petroleum-using capital stock, non-reversal nature of some government policies etc., see Dargay and Gately [4] and Gately and Huntington [5]. The asymmetric relationship between price and consumption is normally modeled by decomposing the price Pt series into: Pt = P0 + Pmax,t + Prec,t + Pcut,t P0: Pmax,t: Prec,t: Pcut,t: The price at the beginning of the sample The maximum historical price The cumulated price recovery The cumulated price cuts. (1)
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The diagnostic tests, namely tests on serial correlation, functional form, normality and heteroskedasticity of the residuals variance, reported along with the estimation results are indicative of robustness and reliability of the estimation results. The data in this quantitative study is collected from OPEC Data Service Department. As our study is concerned with the quarterly time-series modeling of (per capita) demand for oil in G7 and the BRICs, we have used a quarterly time series of crude oil prices and per capita oil consumption and per capita real GDP. In alternative specifications other variables such as energy and oil intensity are used as well. To calculate the quarterly per capita GDP and demand for oil in the countries of concern we have disaggregated annual population time series to the series with quarterly frequency adopting Denton [6] methodology used by the ECOTRIM 1.01 (Eurostat, 2002) software [7]. The remainder of the paper organized as follows: after a brief review of the modeling methodology in section 2, the estimation results are presented in section 3 and in section 4 we draw concluding remarks of this paper.
2 Modelling methodology
Huntington [3] in his review of the response surface of several models developed to investigate demand for oil in OECD propose a log-linear, lag-adjustment demand specification consistent with the structure of most models. This formulation assumes that oil demand responds immediately to changes in income but only gradually to changes in price. Technical progress, if present, reduces demand at a constant rate in each period and hence operates like income variable. These relationships allow oil demand to be expressed as:
Qt qt Pt e gtYt a .....g 0,...a 0
(1)
where Q is actual demand, P is the oil price, Y is GDP, g is the rate of autonomous improvements in oil efficiency, and is the income elasticity of demand for oil. In this specification, the rate of autonomous improvements is constant each year and demand adjusts completely to income changes within the same year. In contrast, the oil price effect cumulative gradually over time through the variable qt(Pt). In each year, after incorporating income and technical progress oil demand adjusts partially to the current price to meet its optimal level.
qt qt 1 qt* qt 1 .....0 1
(2)
where q is modified oil demand, is the fraction of the oil demand adjusted in each period and the asterisk indicates the optimal level of consumption. The optimal level of this variable is itself a function of the oil price alone.
qt* P
(3)

Substituting for qt* and in (2) and for qt in (1) yields the following expression:
where
Y Qt g t 1 , ....., A P t Yt 1 Q t 1 Q t 1 Y t 1 A eg
(4)
In Huntington [3] this equation is estimated by OLS but constraining the coefficients of the non-price terms to their assumed values. In its log form the equation could turn to an ARDL(1,1,0) in Q, P and Y.
(5) The Huntington Models specification is typical for most econometric models demand for oil and comparing this specification with the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) shows that in fact all the various demand equations can be written in the form of ARDL model of order 1: (6) where yt denotes the share of energy or oil in total expenditure or logarithm of per-capita energy or oil consumption depending on the particular functional form used in the demand analysis. Xt = 1,..,3 are the logarithms of oil and non-oil prices and real output.
ln Qt 1 ln Qt 1 ln Pt ln Yt 1 ln Yt 1 ,.where.. g (ln t 1)
L yt b1 L x1t b2 L x2t b3 L x3t ut
(6.1) L is as usual one-period lag operator (Lx1,t = w 1,t-1), and ut serially uncorrelated error term. This model is general enough four our purpose and yields the various dynamic formulations of energy demand equations discussed earlier. In the context of the ARDL model (6), the parameters of interest are the long term coefficients
b L b b L i 0 1
L 1 L
j b j 0 b j1 / 1 ,..... j 1,2,3 a / 1
The speed of adjustment is defined by be written in the form of an error correction (EC) model:
(7)
. In terms of the parameters, (6) can

(8)
yt ECt 1 b j 0 x jt ,...........t 1,2,...., T

j 1
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where the error correction term is the deviation from the long term relationship.
ECt yt j x jt
j 1
(9)
The remaining parameters, b j 0 , j=1,2,3 represent the impact effect of the price and income changes on energy consumption. As mentioned earlier a number of dynamic models are nested within the above general ARDL(1,1,1,1) specification. For example, the simple partial adjustment is obtained by setting b j1 =0, j=1,2,3. The simple error correction model is obtained by restricting the impact effects to be zero, namely b j 0 0, j=1,2,3. From this discussion it is therefore visible that all the various demand equations that we estimate can be written in the form presented above. The base line country specific (ARDL) model, general form of which was given by equation (6) can be represented for the first order ARDL model in a time series framework as follows:
yt ai i y,t 1 bL xti ut ,....t 1,2,..., T

(10) As before, yt is logarithm of energy consumption in country i at time t, xt is a k x 1 vector of explanatory variables for country i. This model provides a useful initial framework for investigating the consequence of pooling and can be generalized to higher order ARDL and its error correction form can be written either in terms of lagged error correction form.
where.b b0 bL ,...
xt ut yt ai y ,t 1ix,t 1 b0 yt a y t 1 xt b1xt ut
(10.1)
or as a partial adjustment type error correction plus change, Pesaran et al. [2] (10.2)
where the adjustment coefficient, = 1-, and the long run response of yt to a unit change in xt is given by the kx1 vector = (b0+b1)/(1-). The dynamic of the adjustment towards equilibrium in this simple setting are governed by and b0 or b1.The disturbance terms will be assumed to be independently normally distributed across time with expected value zero and variances 2. Assumptions that there exists a long run relationship between yt and xt can be tested using cointegration technique if it is known that the time series are integrated of order one I (1). In the next section we investigate these points.
3 Price homogeneity, unit roots and co-integration tests

Typically there are four steps in testing for co-integrating relationship between the time series of a VAR model: i) Implementing unit root tests to see if the series are I (1), ii) Investigating the nature of the intercept/trend in the underlying VAR based on in-differenced data to see if the intercept and the deterministic time trend or both should be included, iii) Selecting the order of VAR and iv) Estimating the co-integrating VAR and carrying out the tests. Overall, this standard procedure is followed here, however, we have added a price homogeneity test to this four step procedure in order to give a statistical justification for substituting the real domestic oil price (P/Cpi) for the two prices variables, namely imported oil prices in domestic currency series divided and domestic consumer price index in the EC model specification. The test results are presented in the table 1. It is clear from the table that the joint hypothesis of long run and short run restrictions are generally accepted in all countries of the sample. Table 1: F-statistics for testing restrictions Long run and short run price homogeneity on the basic EC equation.
Longrun Longrunandshort- run pricehomogeneity(Hl) pricehomogeneity(H) Country Degreeof Degreeof Fstatistic Prob. Fstatistic Prob. freedom freedom Brazil 0.022 F(1,24) 0.88 1.27 F(2,24) 0.29 Canada 0.046 F(1,73) 0.82 2.32 F(2,73) 0.10 China 0.068 F(1,55) 0.79 0.92 F(2,55) 0.40 France 2.34 F(1,63) 0.13 1.92 F(2,63) 0.15 Germany 1.22 F(1,73) 0.27 1.40 F(2,73) 0.25 India 1.73 F(1,60) 0.19 1.21 F(2,60) 0.31 Italy 2.43 F(1,73) 0.12 2.63 F(2,63) 0.08 Japan 5.11* F(1,73) 0.03 2.77 F(2,73) 0.07 Russia 0.23 F(1,25) 0.63 0.16 F(2,25) 0.85 UK 1.91 F(1,73) 0.17 0.95 F(2,73) 0.39 USA 5.60* F(1,73) 0.02 2.80 F(2,73) 0.07 *Rejectedin5%level,allothercasescannotberejectedat5%level
This opens the way for our investigation of the nature of intercept/trend in underlying VAR model and now we can return to the four step co-integration testing procedure starting by estimating an unrestricted VAR with the three variables, namely, (per capita) demand for oil (LD), real (per capita) GDP (LY) and constant oil price (LP) all in logarithms to determine whether the intercept and trend should be included in the equations. For each individual country, we
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therefore, estimate an unrestricted VAR with six lags and examine whether two deterministic variables, C and T, should be included. The results are summarized in the following sections. The unit root test results (not reported here for space limitations) show that all the variables concerned, in our demand for oil modelling, are integrated of the order one I (1) that opens the way for our ECM analysis. This analysis will need testing for co-integration between the variables. But prior to investigating the nature of intercept/trend in the underlying VAR models and selecting the order of VAR models to arrive at co-integration tests, here as was mentioned, we have tested the hypothesis of the long run and short run price homogeneity in individual countries. For each individual country we therefore estimate an unrestricted VAR with six lags and examine whether two deterministic variables, C and T, should be included. The results (not reported here) indicate that for all countries of the sample group the null hypothesis of zero intercept or zero trends or zero intercept and trend together for all three time series is rejected except in the case of the UK that one cannot reject the null of zero intercept or zero trend at 5% level. However, even in this case the null hypothesis of zero restriction on both intercept and trend is rejected at 5% level. Having tested for including C and T in the unrestricted models we next could use information criteria to select the appropriate order of the VARs. Different information criterions have selected different lag lengths for the same country and for different countries of the sample group. The optimal lag lengths differ from 2 lags selected by SC for Italy and China to up to 6 lags by different criterions for Brazil and Russia. Generally speaking it appear that the criteria have selected less lags for VAR models of G7 countries; around three lags; than for the BRICs on average. Brazil and Russia are given 6 lags by all the criteria. Since it is believed that AIC tends to overestimate the lag length whereas SBC and HQC are consistent estimators, here we have given more weight to SBC in selecting lag length of the VAR models particularly when both SBC and HQC select the same m. In fact with large sample and assuming true model is amongst those considered, the SBC and HQC will choose the correct model. This is supported by simulation evidence for example by Basci and Zaman [8]. They show that for large samples the SBC and HQC are unambiguously the best criteria to use. Also we know that Eviews [9] uses SBC when choosing m in lag length selection of VARs. In view of the discussion above we will assume the optimal lags for the sample countries models as follows: Brazil 6, Canada 3, China 6, France 3, Germany 3, India 3, Italy 2 and 3, Japan 3, Russia 6, UK 3 and USA 3. Assuming these selected lag lengths the null hypothesis of inclusion of intercept or trend, and intercept and trend together in demand for oil equations of individual economies are tested calculating log-Likelihood ratios, (the results are not given here to save space). Overall, the likelihood ratio tests with the selected lag length for each country of the sample group do not change the general picture, where all the VAR models were of order 6. Only in case of India, where the selected lag length is 3,

estimating the corresponding VAR model with no intercept results in a Log Likelihood ratio of 3.4 which is less than the critical value of 7.8, meaning that in this case the null hypothesis of zero intercept cannot be rejected at 5% level. For the remaining cases zero restriction on intercept and trend or both intercept and trend together is rejected. With these results, given the non-stationarity of the time series of concern, we now turn to co-integration tests to investigate the existence of long run relationship between the time series for each individual economy of our sample group. Given the co-integration tests results; we will then use a combination of error correction and its equivalent ARDL models of per capita demand for oil in individual economies to arrive to the best estimations of price and income elasticitys of demand for oil in these countries on the basis of diagnostic tests. Application of the Johansen co-integrations tests reveal that, as expected, the three time series of concerned, namely: per capita demand for oil, per capita real GDP and real price of (imported) oil are co-integrated in all economies of the sample group, albeit with different lag intervals and deterministic trend assumptions in different economies of the sample group. Having established the co-integrating relation between the variables of concern we next turn to estimate the ARDL version of the error correction models for each individual economy before attending to the pooled cross country estimations of the parameters of the models.
4 Individual country results estimating ARDL (1,0,0) models

The following table gives the individual country estimations results. The diagnostic tests results (not given here to save space) imply that all the equations pass the diagnostic tests, namely Lagrange multiplier test for serial correlation, functional form misspecification, non-normal errors and heteroskedasticity tests at the 5 per cent level, except for heteroskedasticity test for the UK equation that is at 1% level. As can be seen from table 2, all the estimated income and price elasticitys are of the right sign and in the main comparable to other studies of demand for oil. The average for GDP elasticity of demand for oil for the eleven countries of our sample is estimated to be 0.41 in the short run and 0.78 in the long run. For the price elasticity of demand for oil the average value of eleven country sample in the short and long run are -0.05 and -0.15 respectively. is the coefficient of adjustment or error correction term , R 2 In this table is the adjusted squared multiple correlation coefficient model, and gives the proportion of the changes in demand for per capita oil explained by the model. LL is the maximized value of the likelihood of the estimated equation. All the equations fit quite well, the lowest fit being the estimated model for Germany 2 with R equal to 0.83. The estimated equation for France yields the largest short and long run (per capita) GDP elasticity of demand for oil; 0.89 and 1.35 respectively, followed by Italian equation with the estimated short and long run elasticitys of 0.86 and 1.32 respectively. Smallest income elasticity for the short run and long run are
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Table 2:
Country Brazil Canada
Income and price elasticitys based on ARDL (1,0,0) specifications.

Elasticity Shortrun 0.32 -0.02 0.15 -0.06 0.01 0.57 -0.08 0.0.7 0.09 0.89 -0.03 0.25 -0.04 -0.03 0.30 -0.05 0.05 0.86 -0.06 0.45 -0.09 -0.02 0.11 -0.03 0.16 -0.01 0.021 0.42 -0.10 0.01 0.41 -0.05 Longrun 0.82 -0.06 0.35 -0.13 0.03 0.89 -0.13 0.10 0.14 1.35 -0.05 0.46 -0.09 -0.06 0.80 -0.12 0.11 1.32 -0.09 0.85 -0.18 -0.05 0.63 -0.15 0.38 -0.023 0.05 0.70 -0.18 0.02 0.78 -0.15 t-ratio 5.18 -2.23 5.24 -4.33 3.93 4.19 -1.60 1.97 3.24 4.71 -2.50 4.49 -4.43 -8.56 3.99 -2.02 2.95 6.48 -4.91 3.04 -5.66 -3.70 4.48 2.46 2.73 -1.70 2.63 3.15 -4.25 1.72 Coef. of adj.
China
France* Germany
India
Italy* Japan
Russia UK
USA*
Average
Income Price Income Price_max Price_rec Income Price_max Price_rec Price_cut Income Price Income Price_max Price_rec Income Price_max Price_rec Income Price Income Price_max Price_rec Income Price_rec Income Price_rec Price_cut Income Price_max Price_cut Income_11 Price_11
0.38 0.42
Adj. R2 0.97 0.91
LL 113.6 212.5
0.64
0.98
125.1
0.63 0.55
0.84 0.83
187.3 176.6
0.40
0.99
197.8
0.66 0.525
0.95 0.92
207.1 199.9
0.184 0.42
0.96 0.91
182.2 228.9
0.575
0.92
255.9
0.49
*Specification includes time trend with statistically significant estimated value.
Russian and Canadian with the estimated values of 0.11 and 0.35 respectively. This is worth noting that the largest GDP elasticitys are estimated for those equations with a deterministic trend in the final specification. It seems that in these equations the deterministic trend, that captures the oil saving exogenous technological change effect, allows the GDP elasticitys of demand for oil to be higher. By final specification we mean the specification that yields the best fit considering criteria such as R squared, log likelihood statistics (Akaike [10]), Information Criteria and Schwarz [11] Criterion and at the same time passes all

the diagnostic tests of serial correlation, functional form test, normality test and heteroskedasticity test.
5 Concluding remarks
The longrun income and price elasticitys for all the sample countries estimated in this study seem to be in a plausible range. One interesting aspect of our modelling approach is that it allows to test whether energy savings in the sample countries are exogenous or induced by oil prices changes. Observe that final specifications of demand for oil for three countries, namely France, Italy and USA contain a deterministic trend. This could be interpreted as presence of a significant impact from exogenous technological changes on demand for oil in these countries. To capture the price induced energy saving technological changes we have made use of the price decomposition, as discussed in Dargay and Gately [4] and Gately and Huntington [5]. In empirical studies, decomposition of prices in models of demand for oil is in effect testing for asymmetric relationship between oil prices and its consumption. In view of this discussion the estimation results lend themselves to the interpretation that in the cases of France, Italy and the USA, the deterministic trend, that captures the oil saving exogenous technological change effect, allows the GDP elasticitys of demand for oil to be higher. In fact excluding the deterministic trend effect from theses equations would have resulted the short run GDP elasticity of demand for oil equal to 0.46 for France, 0.49 for Italy and 0.37 for the USA with corresponding long rum income elasticitys of 0.76, 0.74 and 0.64 respectively. These values of income elasticity of demand for oil are closer to the average value of this parameter for the G7 and the sample group of eleven countries. If decomposition of oil prices in equations of demand for oil can be considered as a substitution for stochastic trend of oil saving technological changes (Agnolucci [12]) then one can say that in all countries of the sample group other than Brazil, France and Italy there have been statistically significant evidence of price induced oil saving technological change in these economies. Of the remaining three countries, the parameters to the deterministic trend, that captures the exogenous oil saving technological changes, are statistically significant for the French and Italian equations. This is only Brazilian equation that in its final specification does not incorporate neither deterministic nor stochastic trends. On the other hand this is only the US equation that comprises both deterministic and stochastic trends indicating the existence of both exogenous and price induced oil saving technological changes in this economy.
References
[1] Pindyck, R. (1979) The structure of world energy demand The IMT Press. [2] Pesaran, M. H., R. P. Smith, T. Akiyama (1998) Energy Demand in Asian Developing Economies, Oxford University Press and Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
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[3] Huntington, H. (1993) Estimated response surface for nine world oil models Energy Economics, January. [4] Dargay, J. and D. Gately (1995a) The imperfect price reversibility of non-transport oil demand in the OECD Energy Economics 17(1): 59-71. [5] Gately, D. and H.G. Huntington (2002) The asymmetric effect of changes in price and income on energy and oil demand Energy Journal, 23 (1): 19-55. [6] Denton, F. T. (1971), Adjustment of monthly or quarterly series to annual totals: An approach based on quadratic minimization, Journal of the American Statistics Association 66 (333). [7] Barcellan, R., and Buono, D. (2002) Temporal Disaggregation Techniques: Ecotrim Interface, User Manual, Eurostat, The Statistical Office of European Commission. [8] Basci, S and A. Zaman (1998) Effects of Skewness and Kurtosis on Model selection Criteria Economic Letters, 59, PP 17-22. [9] Quantitative Micro software (2007) Eviews 6 User Manual, CA, USA. [10] Akaike, H. (1973), Information Theory and the Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle in Proceedings of the Second International Symposium of Information Theory, eds. B. N. Petrov and F. Csaki, Budapest, PP. 267-281. [11] Shwarz, G. (2978), Estimating the Dimension of a Model, Annals of Statistics, 6, PP. 461-4. [12] Agnolucci, P. (2010) Stochastic Trends and Technical Changes: The Case of Energy Consumption in the British Industrial and Domestic sectors The Energy Journal, Vol.31, No. 4.0.
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Author Index
Abdel-Halim W. ...................... 477 Abdullah A. ............................. 675 Abdullah Zawawi N. A. W. ..... 675 Abou-Elela S. I. ....................... 477 Adeboyejo T. A. ...................... 737 Aguilar S. . ............................ 431 Ajayi D. D................................ 711 Akpnar F. ................................ 329 Alameri M. ................................ 29 Aldagheiri M.............................. 51 Alegria Mira L. ........................ 285 Al-Mutairi H. ........................... 859 Alsaqqaf Z. ................................ 59 Aly S. S. A. .............................. 537 Aly S. S. ................................... 299 Amer M. S. E. .......................... 537 Andrs A. ................................... 39 Angara T.-E. ............................ 651 ngeles M........................ 517, 847 Asali M. ................................... 947 Assumma V. ............................ 809 Atanur G. ................................. 419 Balsys R. .................................. 909 Barcham R. .............................. 749 Beecham S. .............................. 239 Bell J. P. W. ............................. 491 Beriatos E. ................................... 3 Beser de Deus L. A. ................. 109 Bikam P. .................................. 737 Boeri A. ................................... 177 Brandtweiner R. ............... 527, 562 Brazil dos Santos Argueta L. ... 583 Cantarella G. E......................... 773 Carpintero S. ............................ 749 Chakwizira J. ........................... 737 Chaney K. ................................ 925 Chauhan A. K. ........................... 97 Chauhan K. A. ........................... 97 Chil G..................................... 819 Chudoba J. ............................... 431 Cifrian E. ................................... 39 Clark N. N. .............................. 895 Claro J. C. A. R. ...................... 919 Costa-Gonzalez D. ................... 919 Costescu D. .............................. 785 Crook M................................... 925 da Conceio M. Alvim-Ferraz M. .................. 469 De Temmerman N. ......... 273, 285 De Wilde W. P. ........................ 273 Debacker W. ............................ 273 Delerue-Matos C...................... 469 Dewsbury J. ............................. 859 Diamantini C. ......................... 133 Diaz-Forero I. .......................... 409 Dosal E. ..................................... 39 Dubov M. ............................... 431 El Menchawy A. ...................... 299 El-Khateeb M. ......................... 477 Elmasry S. K. ................... 165, 201 Esanu L. V. .............................. 345 Falciani J. ................................. 761 Fallahzadeh R. ......................... 239 Fawzy M. E. ............................ 477 Freitas M. A. V. ....................... 109 Fujinawa K. ............................. 871 Gamez A. ................................. 847 Ganis M. .................................... 71 Ghetau L. ................................. 345 Giovagnorio I............................. 85 Gmez I. .................................. 517 Gran A. .................................. 261 Grindlay A. L........................... 623 Gurluk S................................... 419 Haggag M. A. .................. 165, 201 Hakim M. A. ............................ 299 Hebert P. .................................. 249 Hendrickx H. ........................... 273 Hoeltl A. .................................. 562

Hosseyni S. M.......................... 189 Humphries A. C. ...................... 925 Iann D. ................................... 819 Ibrahim A. A. A. M. ................ 699 Ibrahim A. ................................ 651 Ismail A. .................................. 651 Ivanova A. ....................... 517, 847 Karakaya E. ............................. 329 Karasozen R. ............................ 145 Kelikume I. .............................. 687 Kim J. H. .................................. 599 Kirchhof S................................ 527 Koca G. .................................... 145 Kunimitsu Y. ........................... 553 Kuusemets V............................ 409 Lajevardi A. R. ........................ 371 Lane-Serff G. F. ....................... 859 Laoubi K. ................................. 505 Leus M. .................................... 355 Liu H.-Y................................... 213 Lizrraga C. ............................. 623 Longo D. .................................. 177 Luig J. ...................................... 409 Malav A. J. ............................. 883 Mnd M. .................................. 409 Mangeli M. .............................. 315 Marsousi N. ............................. 371 Martello M. .............................. 761 Martin G. ................................. 443 Mateo-Babiano D....................... 71 Mathew A. K. .......................... 925 McKain D. L. ........................... 895 Metsaots K. .............................. 453 Mikulionis A. ........................... 909 Minnery J. .................................. 71 Miralles i Garcia J. L. .............. 123 Molero E. ................................. 623 Morales C. G............................ 883 Musolino G. ............................. 797 Nascimento E. A. ....................... 19 Neila Gonzlez F. J. ................. 935 Nix A. C. .................................. 895 Otas K. ..................................... 909 Paduart A. ................................ 273 Paknas V. J............................. 909 Papageorgiou M. .......................... 3 Prez L. ...................................... 39 Pingle A. M. .............................. 97 Ponce G. .................................. 517 Popa M..................................... 785 Pratelli A.................................. 761 Raicu S..................................... 785 Riazi M. ................................... 189 Rindone C. ............................... 831 Rochford F. .............................. 573 Rodrguez M. I......................... 623 Rodrguez-Ubias E. ............... 935 Roja-Caldelas R. I.................... 609 Roose K. A. ............................. 453 Roca E. ................................... 785 Ruz-Valero L. ......................... 935 Russo F. ............797, 809, 819, 831 Saeed M. M. ............................ 397 Salami D. ................................. 687 Snchez S. V. ........................... 935 Sandoval J. A. .......................... 895 arman A. ................................ 431 Sattaripour A. .......................... 315 Saygn N. ................................. 329 Schwedes O. ............................ 727 Sepp K. .................................... 453 Serag-Eldin M. A. .................... 227 Shah J. P. ................................... 97 Silva L. F. C. F. ...................... 109 Souleyrette R. .......................... 761 Taniguchi M. ........................... 381 Toms Albergaria J. ................. 469 Tomigashi A. ........................... 871 Torn K. .................................... 443 Turan O.................................... 419 Ujihara T. ................................. 381
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Vandevyvere H. ....................... 153 Vakys A. ................................ 909 Velon P. ................................. 773 Vettorato D. ............................. 133 Viguri J. ..................................... 39 Vitetta A. ................................. 773 Vitta P. ..................................... 909 Vivas Neto D. C. ........................ 19 Wagle G. .................................... 29 Walsh P. R. .............................. 663 Wayne W. S. ............................ 895
Yamao M. ................................ 505 Yousefnia Pasha M. ................. 639 Zamroni A. .............................. 505 Zhang H. .................................... 59 Zizumbo-Villarreal R. ............. 609 ukauskas A. ........................... 909
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Wind Power Generation and Wind Turbine Design

Edited by: W. TONG, Kollmorgen Corporation, USA
Provides the wind power industry and the energy research community with comprehensive up-to-date information on advanced design techniques and practical approaches for a form of energy that is becoming increasingly important. It addresses all the major concerns in wind power generation and wind turbine design and includes some of the more recent developments in the field. The book is a useful and timely contribution to the technical literature on wind power. Along with the rising energy demand in the 21st century and the growing recognition of global warming and environmental pollution, energy supply has become an integral and cross cutting element of every countrys economy. In recent years, more and more countries have prioritized sustainable, renewable, and clean energy sources such as wind, solar, hydropower, biomass, etc., as the replacements for fossil fuels. Wind power is the fastest growing alternative energy segment, providing an attractive cost structure relative to other alternative energy. Wind energy has played a significant role in North American and European countries, and some developing countries such as China and India. In 2008, over 27 GW of new wind capacity were installed throughout the world. There is no doubt that wind power will play a major role as the world moves towards a sustainable energy future.
ISBN: 978-1-84564-205-1 e-ISBN: 978-1-84564-388-1 Published 2010 / 768pp / 298.00
WIT Press is a major publisher of engineering research. The company prides itself on producing books by leading researchers and scientists at the cutting edge of their specialities, thus enabling readers to remain at the forefront of scientific developments. Our list presently includes monographs, edited volumes, books on disk, and software in areas such as: Acoustics, Advanced Computing, Architecture and Structures, Biomedicine, Boundary Elements, Earthquake Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Fluid Mechanics, Fracture Mechanics, Heat Transfer, Marine and Offshore Engineering and Transport Engineering.
Food and Environment

The Quest for a Sustainable Future
Edited by: V. POPOV and C.A. BREBBIA, Wessex Institute of Technology, UK
The many advances in food production over the past century have made it possible to feed the whole of humanity. But food production and processing can have detrimental effects on the environment. Major challenges remain with industrial-scale farming. Higher productivity and larger volumes should not come at the expense of product quality or animal suffering. Despite their importance, the consequences of food-related problems have not been sufficiently considered. It is essential to understand the impact that food production processes and the demands of rising living standards can have on the food consumed daily by the worlds people. Of particular importance are the effects on human health and the well-being of the population, as well as the more general issues related to possible damage to the environment and ecology. This book includes contributions presented at the first international conference convened to examine these challenges. Topics include; Food Processing Issues; Contamination of Food; Pharmaceuticals in Food; Obesity-Related Issues; Pesticides and Nutrients; Hormonal Effects; Food and Fecundity; Genetic Engineering; Freezing and Thawing; Heavy Metals; Pathogens; Salination Problems; Desertification; Transportation Problems; Traceability; Threshold Values; Modern Farming; Changing Climate; Laws and Regulations; Epidemiological Studies; Water Resources Problems; and Animal Welfare. The book will be of interest to food scientists and nutritionists, as well as agricultural, ecological, and environmental health experts interested in all these challenges.
WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, Vol 152 ISBN: 978-1-84564-554-0 eISBN: 978-1-84564-555-7 Published 2011 / 256pp / 110.00
Sustainable Chemistry
Edited by: G. RENIERS, University of Antwerp, Belgium and C.A. BREBBIA, Wessex Institute of Technology, UK
As the demands of society increase in their quest for safer, better and more convenient products, the chemical industry is faced on the one hand with the possible depletion of natural resources and on the other with a large share of responsibility for the damage that may be caused to the environment and the population by their products. The main area of chemical activity consists of the conversion of various base metals into substances and materials with new chemical and physical properties. A substantial amount of research is being carried out regarding this conversion process, which now must incorporate sustainability requirements. In addition, other associated activities, such as the chemical supply chain, performance measurements and different types of management tasks, must meet sustainability standards. Achieving sustainable chemistry based on clean processing routes, efficient use of resources, renewable materials, adequate management systems and other activities is not only essential for the future of a competitive chemical industry but also for a sustainable and healthy society and environment. Key to sustainable chemistry are innovative and cleaner technologies and the development of appropriate business models, performance measurements, and better integrated management. This book contains papers on the latest academic and industrial research in the field presented at the first international conference convened on the sustainable chemistry.
Energy and Sustainability III

Edited by: Y. VILLACAMPA, University of Alicante, Spain, C.A. BREBBIA, Wessex Institute of Technology, UK and A.A. MAMMOLI, University of New Mexico, USA
It has been clear for some time that the way in which our society exists, operates, and develops is strongly influenced by the way in which energy is produced and consumed. No industrial process can proceed without an adequate energy supply, and without industrial production, society lacks the commodities on which it depends. Our energy systems have evolved over a long period and continue evolving in response to the needs of both Industry and Society. This evolution involves technological development and innovation, especially now that we need to look beyond simple fuel combustion as a source of energy and consider both greater efficiency in the use of energy and new ways of producing it. The Third International Conference convened on the subject is the latest in a biennial series that brings together experts from around the world. Their papers, contained in this book, will include research on: Renewable Energy Technologies; Energy Management; Energy Policies; Energy and the Environment; Energy Analysis; Energy Efficiency; Energy Storage and Management; Conversion Process for Biomass and Biofuels; CO2 Sequestration and Storage.
WITPress Ashurst Lodge, Ashurst, Southampton, SO40 7AA, UK. Tel: 44 (0) 238 029 3223 Fax: 44 (0) 238 029 2853 E-Mail: witpress@witpress.com

Sustainable Development and Planning V - C. Brebbia, E. Beriatos (WIT, 2011) BBS PDF

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FIFTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND PLANNING