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Relaxo Footwear
Financial Performance
Y/E March (` cr) Total Income EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Reported PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy) 20.6 (3.1) (269)bp (28.2) 3QFY2013 223 19 8.4 6 % chg (qoq) 30.7 71.3 262bp 122.2
`605 `791
12 Months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta Net debt (` cr) 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Footwear 727 0.4 161 917 / 354 2,111 5 18,817 5,724 RLXO.BO RLXF IN
Relaxo reported mixed set of numbers for 4QFY2013. The revenue for the quarter grew considerably by 20.6% yoy and stood at `291cr, higher than our expectation of `275cr. However, on the operating margin front the company witnessed a contraction of 269bp on yoy basis and came in at 11.0% against out estimate of 11.8%, mainly due to the higher other expenses. Tax for the quarter stood at `8cr (38.1% of PBT). Subsequently, the profit for the quarter declined by 28.3% yoy and stood at `14cr, 27.7% lower than our estimate of `19cr. Store expansion and brand revamp to drive volume: Relaxo has aggressive retail expansion plans to open 25-30 retail stores every year to expand its direct reach and brand visibility. In FY2013, the company added 27 retail outlets, which has taken the total retail outlet count to 168 at the year end. We expect that this expansion of retail outlets along with the leading celebrity endorsement of the brands will help the company in expanding its reach as well as strengthening its brand image which will eventually result in top-line addition. Outlook and valuation: We expect Relaxo to post a revenue CAGR of 15.2% over FY2013-15E to `1,333cr with an operating margin of 11.4% in FY2015E. The PAT is expected to grow at a CAGR of 27.7% to `73cr for the same period. The stock has corrected ~25% since the start of this year and at the current market price, it is trading at attractive valuation of 9.9x FY2015E earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised target price of `791, based on a target PE of 13x for FY2015E.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 75.0 16.1 1.5 7.5
3m 3.8 (9.1)
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
686 23.9 27 (28.8) 9.6 22.4 27.0 5.4 22.0 14.3 1.3 13.3
860 25.4 40 48.7 10.5 33.3 18.2 4.2 26.0 19.5 1.0 9.7
1,005 16.8 45 12.2 10.4 37.3 16.2 3.4 23.2 17.6 0.9 8.8
1,146 14.1 55 22.9 10.9 45.9 13.2 2.8 23.0 19.6 0.8 7.3
1,333 16.3 73 32.7 11.4 60.9 9.9 2.2 24.6 22.5 0.7 5.9
Tejashwini Kumari
30940000 ext: 6856 tejashwini.kumari@angelbroking.com
4QFY2013 291 134 45.9 28 9.7 97 33.4 259 32 11.0 5 7 2 22 7.5 8 38.1 14 4.6 6 22.5
4QFY2012 242 125 51.6 25 10.4 59 24.3 208 33 13.7 4 6 1 25 10.2 6 23.7 19 7.8 6 31.4
% chg (yoy) 20.6 7.4 12.0 65.8 24.4 (3.2) (271)bp 17.8 23.6 18.3 (11.7) 41.7 (28.3)
3QFY2013 223 101 45.4 27 12.2 76 34.1 204 19 8.4 5 6 1 9 4.0 3 31.8 6 2.7 6
% chg (qoq) 30.7 32.3 3.9 28.0 26.9 71.3 262bp 13.3 6.7 48.2 144.9 193.6 122.2
FY2013 1,005 469 46.7 113 11.3 317 31.6 900 105 10.4 18 25 6 68 6.7 23 33.8 45 4.5 6
FY2012 860 459 53.4 82 9.6 229 26.6 770 90 10.5 19 23 5 54 6.2 14 25.4 40 4.6 6 66.6
% chg 16.8 2.2 37.6 38.6 16.8 16.7 (1)bp (5.2) 10.4 11.1 26.4 68.5 12.2
(28.3)
10.1
122.2
74.7
12.2
39.5
33.5 25.6 21.8 15.6 10.3 9.2
45 40
35 30
55.6
54.5
54.1
53.7
51.6
48.3
47.3
45.4
45.9
250
( ` cr)
200 150
21.6
(%)
20.6
25 20
15 10
(%)
100
201 215
50 0
199
204
242
248
242
223
291
5
0
10.0
0.0
7.9
8.6
13.7
11.1
11.0
8.4
11.0
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY14
4QFY11
2QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
Revenue (LHS)
EBITDA margin
Tax for the quarter stood at `8cr (38.1% of PBT), higher than expected. Subsequently, the profit for the quarter declined by 28.3% yoy and stood at `14cr, 27.7% lower than our estimate of `19cr.
Investment rationale
Store expansion to expand reach and strengthen brand image
Relaxo has aggressive retail expansion plans to open 25-30 retail stores every year. In FY2013, the company added 27 retail outlets, which has taken the total retail outlet count to 168 at the year end. We expect that this expansion of retail outlets will help the company in expanding its reach as well as strengthening its brand image and visibility which will eventually result in top-line addition.
4QFY14
1QFY12
3QFY12
Financial performance
Assumptions
Exhibit 5: Key assumptions
Assumptions Volume Growth Realisation Growth Change in raw material prices (%) Ethyl Vinyl Acetate (EVA) Rubber
Source: Company, Angel Research
For FY2013, the company witnessed a revenue growth of 16.8% and stood at `1,005cr, against our estimate of `989cr, on account of healthy demand coupled with price hikes across brands. We expect the companys revenue to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% over FY2013-15E, from `1,005cr in FY2013 to `1,333cr in FY2015E, mainly on the back of growth triggers, which includes 1) capacity expansion plan, 2) store expansion, 3) improved sales mix and 4) brand revamping.
33.3
35.9
25.4 16.8
14.5 24.3
15.0 26.0
23.9
30
1,000
( ` cr)
800 600
(%)
14.1
1,146
16.3
20
31.9
(%)
1,005
554
686
200 0
860
407
1,333
400
10
0
25.8
26.0
49.2
44.4
40.8
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2009
FY2013E
FY2015E
FY2014E
35.5
33.0
Revenue (LHS)
FY2008
FY2009
Hawaii Flite
FY2010
Sparx
FY2011
Others*
FY2012
The gross margin for the year improved by 666bp, however, the effect of same could not result in improvement of operating margin. The reason for the same being increased other expense on account of various initiatives taken in sales, marketing and supply chain management. Also, the company spent substantial amount of ~`55cr (~`30cr in FY2012) on advertisement and publicity. Consequently, the operating margin came in at 10.4%, slightly below our estimate of 10.6%. Going ahead, we expect the other expense to normalize, thus aiding the
May 15, 2012
operating margin to improve by 93bp over FY2013-15E to 11.4% in FY2015E. The profit for FY2013 stood at `45cr (12.2% higher than FY2012), against our estimate of `50cr. On account of improved margin, we expect the net profit to grow at a CAGR of 27.7% over FY2013-15E to `73cr in FY2015E.
16
14
70
60 50
160.2
120
100
12
10
( ` Cr)
(%)
( ` cr)
80 60 40
8 6 4
40
30 20
(%)
33.2
105
41
76
90
66
20
0
152
125
2
0
10
0
-28.8
0
-50
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012E
FY2013E
FY2015E
FY2014E
EBITDA (LHS)
PAT (LHS)
600
(` )
400 200 0
Mar-09
Aug-09
May-08
Nov-10
Dec-12
Apr-11
Oct-08
Sep-11
Feb-12
Jul-12
FY2015E
FY2013E
FY2014E
FY2009
FY2010
FY2012
FY2011
Price (`)
4x
8x
12x
16x
May-13
Jan-10
Jun-10
Risks
Rise in raw material prices and depreciating rupee
The prices of key raw materials EVA and rubber had reached their peak in the last financial year to ~`149/kg and ~`243/kg respectively, which impacted the operating margin. However, the rubber price has started declining, with the current price for rubber at ~`183/kg. Any rise in the price can put margins under pressure. Also, Relaxo imports its entire EVA requirement, so any further depreciation in the rupee can pose a risk to the operating margin and thereby impact the profitability of the company.
258
230
( ` /Kg)
210 190 183
55 54 53 52 51
170
150
Dec-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
Oct-12
Nov-12
May-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jul-12
Dec-11
Aug-11
Aug-12
Dec-12
Feb-12
Feb-13
The company
Relaxo is a key player in the retail footwear industry, with a strong foothold in the slippers market and a strong distribution channel of 700 distributors and more than 46,000 retailers. The company presently has 168 company-owned outlets across India, with a concentrated presence in Delhi, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. It has nine manufacturing plants, seven in Bahadurgarh (Haryana) and one each in Bhiwadi (Rajasthan) and Haridwar (Uttaranchal). Currently, the company sells its products under three major brands Hawaii, Flite and Sparx.
May 15, 2012
May-13
Jun-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jun-12
Oct-11
Oct-12
Apr-13
10
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Relaxo Footwear No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
12