PREFACE

Burning of Fossil fuel, mass destruction of forest and effluent of various Industries has lead to the rise in global temperature. Preventing this global warming is the biggest challenge to the mankind. This Report deals with the scientific aspects of Green house effect and climatic change, explains why this issue is important, and shows that there are measures which, if implemented soon, can reduce the social, economical and environmental impact of changing climate.

Chapter 1
What is global warming? Global Warming is defined as gradual increase in the temperature of the planet earth. Measurements indicate the increase in earth temperature by one degree Fahrenheit over the past century. This increase in temperature is because of human activities which lead to increase in CO2 level and other green house gases. All the scientists believe that this rise in global temperature will further lead to global warming, but uncertainties prevail about the time and severity of the climate change. On the other hand, many are now convinced that human activities are majorly responsible for long term warming of the earth by emitting green house gases. Scientist believes that there is enough evidence to justify a sensible approach towards minimizing potential consequences of global warming. The intergovernmental panel on climate change, a panel of 2000 scientist convened by United Nations Environmental program and the World Meteorical Organization determined that even if we take steps to reduce our Green House gases, the planet could warm up to a rate faster than it has in the past 10,000 years.

Mechanism of Global Warming:

The Sun rays in the form of Infrared rays fall on earths surface, a part of which is absorbed by the atmosphere and the major part is reflected back to the space. Due to the presence of green house gases like Carbon dioxide and Methane this rays are absorbed in the Stratosphere which are again reflected back to the earths surface. This will lead to increase in temperature on the earths surface. This process goes on repeatedly as the infrared rays are absorbed more and more ultimately leading to increase in the temperature of the Planet in whole.

What Causes Global Warming? Scientists have spent decades figuring out what is causing global warming. Theyve looked at the natural cycles and events that are known to influence climate. But the amount and pattern of warming thats been measured cant be explained by these factors alone. The only way to explain the pattern is to include the effect of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted by humans. To bring all this information together, the United Nations formed a group of scientists called the International Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC. The IPCC meets every few years to review the latest scientific findings and write a report summarizing all that is known about global warming. Each report represents a consensus, or agreement, among hundreds of leading scientists. One of the first things scientists learned is that there are several greenhouse gases responsible for warming, and humans emit them in a variety of ways. Most come from the combustion of fossil fuels in cars, factories and electricity production. The gas responsible for the most warming is carbon dioxide, also called CO2. Other contributors include methane released from landfills and agriculture (especially from the digestive systems of grazing animals), nitrous oxide from fertilizers, gases used for refrigeration and industrial processes, and the loss of forests that would otherwise store CO2. Different greenhouse gases have very different heat-trapping abilities. Some of them can even trap more heat than CO2. A molecule of methane produces more than 20 times the warming of a molecule of CO2. Nitrous oxide is 300 times more powerful than CO2. Other gases, such as chlorofluorocarbons (which have been banned in much of the world because they also degrade the ozone layer), have heat-trapping potential
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thousands of times greater than CO2. But because their concentrations are much lower than CO2, none of these gases adds as much warmth to the atmosphere as CO2 does. In order to understand the effects of all the gases together, scientists tend to talk about all greenhouse gases in terms of the equivalent amount of CO2. Since 1990, yearly emissions have gone up by about 6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent worldwide, more than a 20% increase.

Green House Effect:

The Sun which is in its Red Giant Phase emits heat from its surface in the form of radiation with temperature as high as 5800 K (Kelvin). The majority of the radiation is in the visible wavelength region, 0.4-1.0 um, where the earths atmospheric gases absorb only weakly. On the other hand, the low temperature earth emits radiation at infrared wavelengths for which the atmosphere is highly absorbing. In simple terms, the atmosphere lets shorter wavelength radiation in, but does not lead longer wavelength radiation out. This behavior is similar to the panes of the glass; the effect is called as green house effect. In the strongly absorbing infrared region, different molecular species are responsible for the opaqueness of the atmosphere at various wavelengths. Water molecules are major absorbers over much of the region at which the earth radiates, 5-30um. The 12.5-18um region is blocked by the carbon dioxide now present in the atmosphere. The 8.512um interval is relatively transparent to much of the radiation, to radiate back to the space. However, there is a strong absorption by ozone at 9.6um wavelength in 8.512um wavelength window. Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and ozone thus reduces the transparency of the window leading to increase in the temperature. In
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addition to this clouds and particulate matter (aerosols) also contribute to this trapping. Calculating the combined radiation trapping-effect of these substances is a bit difficult task because addition of this trapping cannot be done linearly as this absorption is sometimes overlapping in the same region. Roughly, carbon dioxide accounts for 12% of the trapped radiation, clouds trap up to 14% of it. Moreover this absorption will increase three to four times if other gases are removed from the atmosphere. The complexities of the radiative processes are further underlined by noting that the upper layers of the atmosphere leak relatively more radiation into space than they trap, so that additional carbon dioxide leads to atmospheric cooling than warming at layers above 20km. Over, the last decade it has been found out that variety of species have strong infrared absorption modes that lie in the window of transparency (Ramanathan, 1975; Chamberlain et al., 1982). Trace species that are capable of affecting the radiative balance include nitrous oxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons as well as ozone. This entire species are increasing because of agriculture and industrial activity, which in turn increases blanketing capacity of the atmosphere.
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Effects of Global Warming

Signs Are Everywhere Main Content The planet is warming, from North Pole to South Pole, and everywhere in between. Globally, the mercury is already up more than 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.8 degree Celsius), and even more in sensitive polar regions. And the effects of rising temperatures arent waiting for some far-flung future. Theyre happening right now. Signs are appearing all over, and some of them are surprising. The heat is not only melting glaciers and sea ice, its also shifting precipitation patterns and setting animals on the move. Some impacts from increasing temperatures are already happening.

Ice is melting worldwide, especially at the Earths poles. This includes mountain glaciers, ice sheets covering West Antarctica and Greenland, and Arctic sea ice. Researcher Bill Fraser has tracked the decline of the Adlie penguins on Antarctica, where their numbers have fallen from 32,000 breeding pairs to 11,000 in 30 years. Sea level rise became faster over the last century. Some butterflies, foxes, and alpine plants have moved farther north or to higher, cooler areas. Precipitation (rain and snowfall) has increased across the globe, on average. Spruce bark beetles have boomed in Alaska thanks to 20 years of warm summers. The insects have chewed up 4 million acres of spruce trees.

Other effects could happen later this century, if warming continues.

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Sea levels are expected to rise between 7 and 23 inches (18 and 59 centimeters) by the end of the century, and continued melting at the poles could add between 4 and 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters). Hurricanes and other storms are likely to become stronger. Species that depend on one another may become out of sync. For example, plants could bloom earlier than their pollinating insects become active. Floods and droughts will become more common. Rainfall in Ethiopia, where droughts are already common, could decline by 10 percent over the next 50 years. Less fresh water will be available. If the Quelccaya ice cap in Peru continues to melt at its current rate, it will be gone by 2100, leaving thousands of people who rely on it for drinking water and electricity without a source of either. Some diseases will spread, such as malaria carried by mosquitoes. Ecosystems will changesome species will move farther north or become more successful; others wont be able to move and could become extinct. Wildlife research scientist Martyn Obbard has found that since the mid-1980s, with less ice on which to live and fish for food, polar bears have gotten considerably skinnier. Polar bear biologist Ian Stirling has found a similar pattern in Hudson Bay. He fears that if sea ice disappears, the polar bears will as well.

Chapter 2

Who Is Responsible?

We, the People

Human factors only

In the above figure we can see how the graph or the frequency is rising form 0-1 degrees over a time span of 150 years. If we compare the Model result and the observations then we can easily interpret that the cause for this is because of Human Factors only.
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Natural factors only

Considering the above figure, if we compare the Model result with that of the Observation then we can interpret that the Natural Factors are comparatively less responsible than that of Human factors. comparing the above to figures. This can also be said by

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Sources of Emissions

The above figure gives information about the global source of emissions. We can see that the Emissions from the Industry and Power stations are the highest, followed by burning of Transportation fuels and Agricultural byproducts and so on. Considering the Emissions, carbon-dioxide accounts for 72%, methane for 18% and the remaining 9% is from nitrous oxide.
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Major Greenhouse Gas Emitters

The above figure gives information about the Quantity of Green House Gas emitted by different countries. Major Green House Gas Emissions comes from the developed countries. U.S and Australia tops the list of such emissions. The U.S, with 6% of the worlds population, contributes 25% of the total emissions. Where will future emissions come from? U.S and Western Europe are the current leaders in the emission chart. Developing countries like India, China and Eastern Europe will contribute a major share in future.
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Chapter 3
WHAT WILL IT DO?
Climatic changes will alter natural vegetation, wildlife habitats, crop growing seasons, and distribution phenomenon of pests is and diseases. referred to This as often

ECOLOGICAL BACKLASH. Accelerated rise in sea levels, threatening half of the world's most critical coastal wetlands. Global warming will expose millions of people to new health risks. About 30 new infectious diseases have emerged in the past 20 years. Global sea level has increased by 10 to 25 cm in the last 100 years and will rise faster in the coming decades. Apart from this, world will face stronger tropical storms, floods, heat waves, wildfires and landslides. INTERNATIONAL HEALTH IMPACTS Increased epidemics of malaria in Africa; new cases in Turkey and elsewhere
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 Increased China

cerebral-cardiovascular

conditions

in

Increased heat wave deaths in Europe (52,000 in 2003), typhoid fever, Vibrio Vulnificus, Ostreopsis Ovata, Congo Crimea hemorrhagic fever Dengue Fever in SE Asia WHO: 150,000 deaths and 5 million illnesses per year is attributed to global warming; numbers expected to double by 2030 (Nature, 2005)

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Effect of global warming on Biological Diversity

If the planet warms as projected, natural ecosystem will change by large changes in temperature, moisture patterns, evaporation rates, and other physical and chemical changes. It is possible to predict the responses of plants and animals by changes in temperature and moisture patterns. For example, it can be said, if we know that race of dwarf birch, Betula nana, can grow only in the temperature not exceeding 22 degrees, then we can predict that this species will disappear from the areas where global warming leads to temperature more than 22 degrees. Ecologists can also observe the results of many small climate experiments performed by nature every year. One can observe what happens to birch trees if unusually warm weather occurs during a particular year, infact some trees fail to set seeds. Some trees die if there are continuous warm years in a row. Scientist have looked in past to see how the ranges of plants and animals varied in response to past climate change. A palynologist can count the types of plant pollen found at different depths in the soil, each depth corresponding to the time in which a particular layer of soil
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was laid down.

If birch pollen is found at a depth

corresponding to 10000 years ago, birch trees must have lived during that time. Similar inference can be drawn form the fossils of the animals which lived long time back in some specific temperature, which at present have become extinct in the same area because of the change in the atmospheric temperature. From such observations, it can be inferred that plants and animals are very sensitive to climate. Their ranges move when the climate patterns change-species die out in the areas when they were once found and settle in new areas where the climate becomes more suitable. We also know from the fossil record that some species have completely vanished because they were unable to find suitable habitat.

Chapter 4
How does Global Warming affect India?

Defects in Indias food security are very prominent even without the uncertain impact of climate change. With more than 60% of agricultural crop dependent on rainfall, even very small change in pattern, intensity and timing of
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rainfall will lead to a great change in the yield of the crop. Green peace is trying to raise awareness among 50 million people living in the coastal cities regarding the risk of rising sea level. Adaption plans are eye-catching by their absence, the chairman of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Rajendra K Pachauri, himself an Indian, has expressed the view that India is completely unprepared for the impact of climate change which he considers could lead to social unrest. There was a great criticism on management of monsoon floods in 2008 which displayed 3 million people in Bihar alone. Apart from rainfall patterns, water resources are threatened by melting of Himalayan glaciers which is the main source of water for 3 main rivers of the country. About 400 million people, one or the other way are dependent on Ganges. Predictions that glaciers would disappear seriously weakens the ambitious $200 billion River-linking project which aims to connect the apparently healthy rivers in the north to those in the south. We keep on hearing about the rising temperatures due to global warming in countries like UK and USA, but the country like India is one of the most vulnerable countries when it comes to the effect of global warming. India has a
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long coastline and rising sea levels caused by global warming will cause an ecological disaster. This is as per 1989 United Nations Environmental Program Study. As the article explains: In India, the signs already back up a forecast that as the mercury rise over the Indian Subcontinent, home to one sixth of humanity, will be one of the worst-affected regions. Bengal will suffer: The Himalayan glaciers have started to melt and the average rate of melting is 34 meters per year as compared to the 1971 levels of 19 meters. The melting glaciers will cause temperatures and sea levels to rise and there will be a cascading effect on the crops and the monsoons. The worse part is the whole island will vanish, infact two have already gone under- the island of Sunder bans which India shares with Bangladesh. Temperature in this group of island has already increased by 1 degree centigrade. Rising sea-levels will be a disaster Some climatologists feel that rising sea-levels will increase by just 4-35 inches from 1990 levels in another 100 years, while some feel that the range would be some where
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between 20-55 inches. Thats a lot and would affect human dwellings in a big way. In the year far back as 1993 a study to evaluate the impact of rising sea levels on India was carried out by JNU (Jawaharlal Nehru University). They calculated what would happen if the sea level rises by 1 meter and concluded that as many as 7 million people would be displaced and 5764 sq km of land and 4200 km of land would be lost.

Orissa will also suffer Orissa is one another state will is hardly hit by global warming. disappearing. In September 2002, scientists at the National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research conducted a peoples perception survey on climate induced natural disasters in the Kendrapara district of Orissa. The research showed that the frequency and intensity of droughts have increased and so have the incidents of flooding. Also, the Whole villages in the coastal region are

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intensity of cyclone has increased and people believed that the sea-water had become warmer. Eastern Coast is more vulnerable than the western coast because the Bay of Bengal is landlocked from three sides and there is a huge delta of the rivers like Brahmaputra and Ganga. These rivers carry the water from the melting Himalayan glaciers.

HOW WILL GLOBAL WARMING AFFECT INDIAN ECONOMY?

India may be a long way from melting polar Ice caps, but its economy will be among the worst affected on account of climate change. According to a report by Lehman Brothers, Indias GDP will decrease by 5% for every 2 degrees rise in temperature. In an interview will Economic Times, John Llewellyn, global economist from Lehman Brothers, said, global warming is likely to make affect India in many ways. Agricultural productivity will be affected as monsoons will be short with intense burst. Water supply will also be affected because of

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lesser snowfall in Himalayas which provides water for about 40% of the worlds population. The effect on GDP will be non-linear. Initially, with every 2 degree rise in temperature would result in a 3% dip in global GDP. The next 2 degrees would do even more damage to the economy. However, for India the effect will be much more harmful. For every 2 degrees rise in temperature the effect on GDP is 5% and for the next 6 degrees it would be 15-16%. According to Mr. Llewellyn, there is both a direct and indirect effect due to climate changes and this differs from sector to sector and from country to country. Incidentally the largest developers of clean development mechanism projects (CDM) are in China, while India hosts the largest no of these projects. According to Mr. Llewellyn these projects represents revenue transfers for countries like India. India will continue to reap the benefit for the next 5-10 years. At present, the carbon emitters in Europe pay up 20 Euros a tonne for their emissions. As per the Kyoto Protocol on global warming, countries will have to pay for high carbon emissions and can also trade with deficient countries. While, the developed world, led by USA and Europe are among the high
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polluters, India, China, along with most developing countries are among the deficient countries who can earn revenues from trading this emissions.

Chapter 5
Global Warming Solutions
What Can We Do?

The evidence that humans are causing global warming is strong, but the question of what to do about it remains controversial. Economics, sociology, and politics are all important factors in planning for the future. Even if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases (GHGs) today, the Earth would still warm by another degree Fahrenheit or so. But what we do from today forward makes a big
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difference. Depending on our choices, scientists predict that the Earth could eventually warm by as little as 2.5 degrees or as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit. A commonly cited goal is to stabilize GHG concentrations around 450-550 parts per million (ppm), or about twice preindustrial levels. This is the point at which many believe the most damaging impacts of climate change can be avoided. Current concentrations are about 380 ppm, which means there isnt much time to lose. According to the IPCC, wed have to reduce GHG emissions by 50% to 80% of what theyre on track to be in the next century to reach this level. Is this possible? Many people and governments are already working hard to cut greenhouse gases, and everyone can help. Researchers Stephen Pacala and Robert Socolow at Princeton University have suggested one approach that they call stabilization wedges. This means reducing GHG emissions from a variety of sources with technologies available in the next few decades, rather than relying on an enormous change in a single area. They suggest 7 wedges that could each reduce emissions, and all of them together could hold emissions at approximately current levels for the next 50 years, putting us on a potential path to stabilize around 500 ppm. There are many possible wedges, including improvements to energy efficiency and vehicle fuel economy (so less energy has to be produced), and increases in wind and solar power, hydrogen produced from renewable sources, biofuels (produced from crops), natural gas, and nuclear power. There is also the potential to capture the carbon dioxide emitted from fossil fuels and store it undergrounda process called carbon sequestration.
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In addition to reducing the gases we emit to the atmosphere, we can also increase the amount of gases we take out of the atmosphere. Plants and trees absorb CO2 as they grow, sequestering carbon naturally. Increasing forestlands and making changes to the way we farm could increase the amount of carbon were storing. Some of these technologies have drawbacks, and different communities will make different decisions about how to power their lives, but the good news is that there are a variety of options to put us on a path toward a stable climate.

CONSERVATION :
Examples(1) Unplug Appliances

ABOUT 43 BILLION KWH OF POWER IS LOST PER YEAR IN U.S ALONE.

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(2) Pump up Tyres. . .

ABOUT 4 MILLION GALLON OF GAS IS WASTED DAILY IN U.S. (3) Lower Thermostat A/c

Lower temperature by 2 degree Celsius or 6 degrees 8 hours/day.

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ENERGY EFFECIENCY: (1)Compact Fluorescent lamps

THEY ARE FIVE TO SIX TIMES MORE EFFICIENT THAN NORMAL LAMPS (2) Hybrid Cars

Hybrid Cars saves money on fuel and also one gets Tax Credit.
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GETTING TO ZERO Renewable Energy: One should use renewable sources of energy and people to use renewable sources of energy. Different types of renewable sources of energy are Wind Energy: Power can be generated with the help of wind energy by building Wind Mill based power stations. Government gives huge subsidy on building wind based power stations at places where the wind energy can be efficiently utilized of exploited. Solar Energy: Solar energy can be used in the form of solar water heaters and solar cookers and many more other innovative ways. In Steam hydro power: Hydro Electric Power stations can be built on rivers where water flows through out the year and where water falls from high altitude. Geothermal Energy: or power. Biofuels: Biofuels like Ethanol is blended along with petrol and is used nowadays. It is widely used in Brazil and other countries like India has started using it. This form of energy is the least exploited type of energy that is used for generation of energy

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Making a Difference as an Individual

Walk, bike, ride public transit Reduce your shower length Buy locally produced food Unplug appliances not in use Turn off lights when leaving a room Use recycled paper Reuse or recycle as much as you can Do not leave appliances on standby Cover your pots while cooking Reuse your shopping bag Plant a tree

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