Mathematical Modeling in Health

Introduction Dr Nihar Ranjan Ray

Bhubaneswar, India
Mathematics is the language to formulate biological phenomena occurring in
nature…..Application of this principle in biology for simplification
understanding is the sole aim of Mathematical Modeling. Biology is a vast
science ..a lot of departments… !ecology, epidemiology, immunology,
virology, physiology, evolutionary biology, neurobiology, cell biology,
biochemistry, genetics, …and so many. It is very difficult to understand the
problem and its complexity designing a mechanism to tackle the problem
Mathematical Biology: conceptual framework to identify fundamental
variables and their influences on each other

Historical Precedents ...

• Modelling of infectious diseases of humans initiated with Bernoulli’s
model for the transmission dynamics of smallpox in 1760
• Foundation of modern mathematical modeling of epidemiology
between 1900-1935
• In 1909, Sir Rossintroduced a disease control factor (R0):
“The Basic Reproductive Number”
• Interest in mathematical immunology emerged in 1970:G.I. Bell,
Journal of Theoretical Biologyand Nature
• A new theoretical field in biology:advent ofHIVin the 1980s

Contributers to the Mathematical Modeling:

Hamer WH, Epidemic disease in England. Lancet 1906; 1: 733–739
Ronald Ross , The prevention of malaria( His works in India),London,
England, John Murray, 1909
McKendrick AG, Applications of mathematics to medical problems. Proc
Edin Math Soc 1926; 14: 98-130
Kermak WO, McKendrick AG, A contribution to the mathematical theory of
epidemics. Proc R Soc Lond B 1927; 115: 700-721
Kermak WO, McKendrick AG, Contributions to the mathematical theory of
epidemics. Proc R Soc Lond B 1931; 138: 55-83

Utility of Mathematical Models

• Models are essential tools for understanding the transmission
dynamics of diseases
• designing proper and cost-effective control strategies
• To understand the Complexity in the newer generation of epidemic
concepts
modes of transmission, incubation period, duration of infectiousness,
treatment and preventive strategies, age and social behavior
,socioeconomic demographics
Mathematical models are essential tools for:
• determining principles of interaction between pathogens and the
immune system
• evaluating the ability of the immune system to control rapidly evolving
pathogens
• understanding the relationship between disease characteristics and
control measures
• predicting disease dynamics and consequences of various control
strategies

Control Strategies: Prevention and Treatment

Traditional methods:
• reducing number of contacts
• therapeutic treatments
• quarantine and isolation
Modern methods:
• Prevention, immunization
• ecological intervention
.
Integration of mathematical models with:
• mechanisms of diseases pathogenesis and
epidemiology
• evolutionary biology of viral pathogens
• intervention strategies at individual and population
levels
• empirical data (in vivoas well as in the population)
So there is need for uniting expertise: mathematics, computer science,
statistics, immunology, virology, epidemiology, evolutionary biology, public
health to master in mathematical biology. There is need of emergence of new
science against new infections

Mathematical Tools: Theory and Applications

• Dynamical Systems (ODEs, PDEs): stability, bifurcation, perturbation,
singularity, normal form, and Index theories,…
• Statistical Analysis: experimental design, data classification and
analysis, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis,…
• Computational biology: stochastic modeling, simulations, finite-
difference methods, numerical software,…

Examples of Popular Mathematical Models

The Concept of Mass Action
The state variables in an epidemiological model correctly refer to population
density rather than population size. The contact rate is often a function of
population density, reflecting the fact that contacts take time and saturation
occurs.

The Size of an Epidemic

Consider an epidemic that occurs on a timescale that is much shorter than that
of the population, in other words regard the population as having a constant size
and ignore births and deaths. Assume that upon recovery the individual remains
immune. At any time the population consists of S susceptible individuals, I
infected and R immune (removed). A simple model that describes the changes
in these numbers with time is
Compartmental Models
A compartmental model is one for which the individuals in a population are
classified into compartments depending on their status with regard to the
infection under study.
The Basic Reproduction Ratio
Definition: the average number of new infections produced by one
infected individual introduced into a wholly susceptible population
during the course of infection
The basic reproduction ratio of an infectious disease is a pivotal concept in
epidemiology. It is defined as the expected number of secondary cases that
would arise from the introduction of a single primary case into a fully
susceptible population. Clearly, when R0 < 1 each successive ‘infection
generation’ is smaller than its predecessor, and the infection cannot persist.
Conversely, when R0 > 1 successive ‘infection generations’ are larger than their
predecessors
Why is R0so important?
Tells us how easy or difficult it is to eradicate an infection assesses the
effectiveness of a disease control measure
1

Models for Vector-Born Infections: A simple model that captures the

essential elements of malaria epidemiology and other vector borne diseases.
Models for Parasite Populations : model for the dynamics of a population of
parasitic helminths in a host population
Models with Structure: the possible demographic impact of HIV in developing
countries. will require models formulated in an age-structured setting.

Ref: ©Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS)

National Research Council Canada