DAILY I FOREX REPORT 7th MAY 2013

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HEADLINES

Euro-Zone PMI Revised Higher, but Signs of an Economic Downturn Continue USD/JPY Can Break 100 In S&P 500 Wake But EUR/USD Will Struggle Australian Dollar Sold on Rate Cut Bets, Yen Down as Stocks Rise
Australian Dollar Falls as Retail Sales Miss, China PMI Boost RBA Rate Cut Bets Yen Down as Asian Stocks Rally in the Wake of Fridays US Employment Data SELL USDJPY BELOW 99.25 tgt 99.05/98.85 SL 99.55
The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, sliding as much as 0.5 percent against its leading counterparts, after a disappointing set of economic data reinforced the probability of an interest rate cut at tomorrows RBA policy meeting. Retail Sales unexpectedly fell 0.4 percent in March and the HSBC China PMI gauge fell to the lowest level since August 2011, warning of slowing performance in Australias largest export market.

TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3100 tgs 1.3080/1.3060 sl 1.3130

Thin Volumes to Make for Quiet Start to Trading Risk But Headline Risk High

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5555 Tgt 1.5535/1.5505 SL 1.5585

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HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.3107 HIGH: 1.3114 LOW: 1.3101 CLOSE: 1.3109 EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0002(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 45(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 99.37 HIGH: 99.39 LOW: 99.27 CLOSE: 99.33 USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARDS TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.12(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 59(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.5560 HIGH: 1.5566 LOW: 1.5558 CLOSE: 1.5562 GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 48(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 00.8423 HIGH: 00.8423 LOW: 00.8422 CLOSE: 00.8423 EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0002(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 46(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 82.1960 HIGH: 82.2280 LOW: 82.1640 CLOSE: 82.1850 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARDS TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0643(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 57(BULLISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALLENDER

Date
Sun May 5 Mon May 6

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Notes

13:30

USD Fed's Pianalto Gives Commencement Speech in Ohio CNY Leading Index (MAR) AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (APR) AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (APR) AUD Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) (1Q) AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (MAR) AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (APR) CNY HSBC Services PMI (APR) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (APR F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F) EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (MAY) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR) EUR German FinMin Schaeuble Speaks on European Integration CAD Building Permits (MoM) (MAR) CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (APR) NZD Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (1Q) NZD Labor Cost Private Sector (QoQ) (1Q)

Low

00:23

Medium

99.38

99.98

00:30

Medium

2.1%

2.1%

00:30

Low

0.3%

0.2%

01:30

Medium

2.2%

1.7%

0.1%

01:30

Medium

-0.4%

0.1%

1.3%

01:30

Low

-1.3%

-0.4%

01:45

Medium

51.1

54.3

07:45

Low

47.0

45.9

45.5

07:50

Low

44.3

44.1

44.1

07:55

Medium

49.6

49.2

49.2

08:00

Medium

46.9

46.6

46.5

08:00

Medium

47.0

46.6

46.6

08:30

Medium

-15.6

-15.2

-17.3

09:00

Medium

-2.4%

-2.2%

-1.7%

09:00

Low

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.2%

09:00

Low

12:30

Medium

1.0%

1.7%

14:00

Medium

58.0

61.6

22:45

Medium

1.0%

-0.4%

22:45

Low

0.5%

0.6%

22:45

NZD Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (1Q) GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (APR) GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence (APR) AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (APR) AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (1Q) AUD House Price Index (YoY) (1Q) AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (MAR) AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (MAY 7) CHF SECO Consumer Confidence (APR) CHF Unemployment Rate (APR) CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (APR) AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (APR) CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (APR) EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR) EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (MAR) USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MAY) USD JOLTs Job Openings (MAR) USD Consumer Credit (MAR) GBP BRC Sales LikeFor-Like (YoY) (APR) CNY Trade Balance (USD) (APR) CNY Exports (YoY) (APR) CNY Imports (YoY) (APR)

Low

0.5%

0.5%

23:01

Low

1.4%

23:01

Low

-45

23:30
Tue May 7

Medium

39

01:30

Medium

1.8%

1.6%

01:30

Medium

4.0%

2.1%

01:30

Medium

0M

-178M

04:30
LIVE

High

3.00%

3.00%

05:45

Medium

-2

-6

05:45

Medium

3.1%

3.2%

05:45

Medium

3.1%

3.1%

06:30

Low

A$48.7B

07:00

Low

435.0B

438.3B

10:00

Medium

-2.9%

0.0%

10:00

Low

-0.5%

2.3%

14:00

Low

47.3

46.2

14:00

Low

3925

19:00

Medium

$16.000B

$18.139B

23:01
Wed May 8

Low

1.9%

1.9%

04:00

Medium

$15.50B

-$0.88B

04:00

Low

10.0%

10.0%

04:00

Low

13.0%

14.1%

04:00

GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (APR) GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (APR) GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (APR) CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (APR) CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (APR) CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR) EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (MAR) EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAR) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 3) CAD Housing Starts (APR) USD Fed's Stein Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAY 3) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 3) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 3) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 3) NZD Unemployment Rate (1Q) NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (1Q) NZD Employment Change (YoY) (1Q) NZD Participation Rate (QoQ) (1Q) JPY Official Reserve Assets (APR) NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (APR)

Low

1.6%

1.1%

04:00

Low

0.2%

0.2%

04:00

Low

5.9%

07:15

Medium

-0.3%

07:15

Medium

-0.5%

-0.6%

07:15

Low

0.5%

07:15

Low

0.1%

0.2%

10:00

Medium

-3.8%

-1.8%

10:00

Low

-0.1%

0.5%

11:00

Low

1.8%

12:15

Medium

175.0K

184.0K

12:30

Low

14:30

Low

-1382K

14:30

Low

6696K

14:30

Low

474K

14:30

Low

-1818K

22:45

High

6.8%

6.9%

22:45

Medium

1.0%

-1.0%

22:45

Medium

-0.7%

-1.4%

22:45

Low

67.9%

67.2%

23:50
Thu May 9

Low

$1254.4B

00:00

Low

6.5%

01:30
LIVE

AUD Employment Change (APR) AUD Unemployment Rate (APR) CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) AUD Full Time Employment Change (APR) CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR) AUD Part Time Employment Change (APR) AUD Participation Rate (APR) JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (APR) JPY Leading Index (MAR P) JPY Coincident Index (MAR P) EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR) GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (MAR) GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR) GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (MAR) GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (MAY) GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (MAY 9) USD Fed's Lacker Speaks on Financial Stability in New York CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (MAR) USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 4) CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (MAR) USD Continuing Claims (APR 27)

High

11.0K

-36.1K

01:30
LIVE

High

5.6%

5.6%

01:30

High

2.3%

2.1%

01:30

Medium

-7.4K

01:30

Medium

-2.3%

-1.9%

01:30

Low

-28.7K

01:30

Low

65.1%

65.1%

02:00

Low

8.56%

05:00

Medium

97.7

97.6

05:00

Low

93.2

92.4

08:00

High

08:30

Medium

-1.6%

-2.2%

08:30

Medium

-2.0%

-1.4%

08:30

Low

0.2%

1.0%

08:30

Low

0.3%

0.8%

11:00

High

375B

375B

11:00

High

0.50%

0.50%

12:00

Low

12:30

Medium

2.1%

2.1%

12:30

Medium

335K

324K

12:30

Low

0.1%

0.2%

12:30

Low

3018K

3019K

14:00

GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (APR) USD Wholesale Inventories (MAR) USD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (MAR) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 3) USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in New York NZD NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (APR) NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (APR) JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (APR) JPY Trade Balance BOP Basis (Yen) (MAR) JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (MAR) JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (APR) JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (MAR) JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (MAR) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 3) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 3) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 3) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 3) GBP G7 Finance Ministers, Central Bank Chiefs, Meet in UK

High

0.10%

14:00

Medium

0.4%

-0.3%

14:00

Low

0.1%

1.7%

14:30

Low

43

17:15

Low

22:45

Medium

0.5%

-0.5%

22:45

Medium

-1.2%

23:50

Medium

23:50

Medium

-274.0B

-677.0B

23:50

Low

480.4B

-0.1B

23:50

Low

1.9%

23:50

Low

-5.7%

-47.0%

23:50

Low

1216.3B

637.4B

23:50

Low

23:50

Low

23:50

Low

23:50

Low

Fri May 10

High

04:00

CNY New Yuan Loans (APR) CNY Aggregate Financing (APR) CNY Money Supply M0 (YoY) (APR) CNY Money Supply M1 (YoY) (APR)

High

767.5B

1060.0B

04:00

Low

1480.0B

2544.3B

04:00

Low

12.0%

12.4%

04:00

Low

11.3%

11.9%

04:00

CNY Money Supply M2 (YoY) (APR) JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (APR) JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (APR) JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (APR) EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (MAR) EUR German Current Account (euros) (MAR) EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (MAR) EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (MAR) GBP Construction Output (YoY) (MAR) GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAR) GBP Construction Output (MoM) (MAR) GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAR) GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (MAR) USD Fed's Evans Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference CAD Net Change in Employment (APR) CAD Unemployment Rate (APR) Full Time Employment Change (APR) Part Time Employment Change (APR) Participation Rate (APR) Fed's Bernanke Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference USD Monthly Budget Statement (APR) Fed's George Speaks on the Economy in Wyoming

Low

15.5%

15.7%

04:30

Medium

-20.0%

05:00

Medium

57.5

05:00

Low

57.3

06:00

Medium

17.5B

16.8B

06:00

Low

19.5B

16.0B

06:00

Low

0.5%

-1.5%

06:00

Low

1.5%

-3.9%

08:30

Medium

-6.6%

-7.0%

08:30

Medium

-9000

-9416

08:30

Low

15.0%

5.5%

08:30

Low

-3100

-3642

08:30

Low

-4000

-4276

12:25

Low

12:30
LIVE

High

15.0K

-54.5K

12:30
LIVE

High

7.20%

7.20%

12:30

Medium

-54.0K

12:30

Low

-0.4K

12:30

Low

66.7

66.6

13:30

Medium

18:00

Medium

$106.0B

18:00

Low

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