Name: _________________________________________ AP Statistics AP Review Hypothesis Test with Proportions KEY 1) Which of the following are true statements?

? I. Tests of significance are designed to measure the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis. II. A well-planned test of significance should result in a statement either that the null hypothesis is true or that it is false. III. If there is interest in deviations in only one direction, the null hypothesis is onesided and expressed using either < or >. a) I and II d) I, II, and III b) I and III e) None of the above gives a c) II and III complete set of true responses 2) An office manager believes that the percentage of employees arriving late is even greater than the previously claimed 7%. She conducts a hypothesis test on a randomly sample of 200 employee arrivals and finds 23 punching in late. Is this strong evidence against the .07 claim? a) Yes, because the P-value is .0063. b) Yes, because the P-value is 2.5. c) No, because the P-value is only .0063. d) No, because the P-value is over .10. e) There is insufficient information to reach a conclusion. Assumptions SRS given Approximately normal because

200( .07) = 14 10

200( .93) = 186 10

Number of employees is at least 2000 State the hypotheses

H 0 : p = .07 H a : p > .07

Calculations

Where p is the proportion of employees who arrive late

= .01

23 = .115 200 p p .115 .07 z = = = 2.5 .018 .07( .93) = p 200 pvalue = normalcdf ( 2.5,1000) = .006
Conclusion At a significance level of 1% p is less than , therefore I reject the null hypothesis. There is sufficient evidence to show that more than 7% of the employees arrive late.

3) The school superintendent wants to know what percentage of property owners are willing to support an increase in school taxes. What size sample should be obtained to determine with 90% confidence the support to within 5%? a) 17 b) 33 c) 271 d) 289 e) 1083

ME = .05 = z *

p ( 1 p )

n z * = invNorm ( .95) = 1.645

2

.05 .25 = n 1.645 .25 n= = 271.73 .00092

4) Using the same data, one student performs a test H0: p = .85 with Ha: p .85; a second student performs a test H0: p = .85 with Ha: p < .85. Both students use = .05 level of significance, the first student claims there is not enough evidence to reject H0, and the second student says there is enough evidence to reject H 0. Which of the following could have been the value for the test statistic? a)z = -2.3 Calculations b) z = -1.8 c) z = -1.3 d) z = 1.3 e) z = 1.8

p value = normalcdf( 1000, 2.3) = .01 left tail test p value = 2normalcdf ( 1000, 2.3) = .02 two tail p value = 2normalcdf ( 1000, 1.8) = .07 two tail p value = normalcdf( 1000, 1.8) = .035 left tail test p value = normalcdf( 1000, 1.3) = .096 left tail test p value = 2normalcdf ( 1000, 1.3) = .192 two tail

5) Which of the following are true statements? I. A P-value is a conditional probability. II. The P-value is the probability that the null hypothesis is true. III. A P-value is the probability that the null hypothesis is true given a particular observed statistic. a) I only b) II only c) III only d) I and II e) I and III

6) Which of the following statements are true? I. If a population parameter is known, there is no reason to run a hypothesis test on that population parameter. II. The P-value can be negative or positive depending upon whether the sample statistic is less than or greater than the claimed value of the population parameter in the null hypothesis. III. The P-value is based on a specific test statistic so it must be chosen before an experiment is conducted. a) I only b) II only c) III only d) I and II e) None are true

7) You conduct a hypothesis test and find a p-value of .025. Which of the following is true? a) You can reject H0 at = .01. b) You can reject H0 at = .05. c) You can accept H0 at = .05. d) You can say the probability that H0 is true is .025. e) None of these are true. 8) A national tabloid newspaper reported that 30% of adults in the general population believe that life exists elsewhere in the universe. A TV news station surveyed a random sample of adults from the general population and reported that 36 out of 100 sampled hold this belief. A right-tail hypothesis test is performed. What is the conclusion at a level of significance of 10%? 5%? 1%? a) P-value = .0952, and so the 30% claim should be disputed at all three of these levels b) P -value = .0952, and so the 30% claim should be disputed at the 10% and 5% level but not at the 1% level c) P -value = .0952, and so the 30% claim should be disputed at the 10% level, but not at the 5% and 1% levels d) P -value = .0952, and so the 30% claim should be disputed at the 1% level, but not the 10% and 5% levels e) P -value = .0952, and so there is not enough evidence to dispute the 30% claim at any of the three levels 9) Which of the following statements are true? I. It is helpful to examine your data before deciding whether to use a one-sided or a two-sided hypothesis test. II. If the P-value is .05, the probability that the null hypothesis is correct is .05. III. The larger the P-value, the more evidence there is against the null hypothesis. a) I only b) II only c) III only d) I and III

e) None of the above gives the complete set of true responses.

10) According to the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, the national rate for 16year-old males was 210 accidents for every 1000 drivers during the year 2000. In a large city in the Midwest, a random sample of 150 16-year-old male drivers found that 36 of them had been in an accident during the year 2000. A hypothesis test of H 0: p = .21 versus Ha: p > .21 was performed. What is the test statistic? a) .24 b) .18 c) .21 d) .90 e) .05 11) Which of the following are true statements? I. The alternative hypothesis is stated in terms of a sample statistic. II. A large P-value is evidence for the alternative hypothesis. III. If a sample is large enough, the necessity for it to be a simple random sample is diminished. a) I only b) II only c) III only d) I and III e) None of the above gives the complete set of true responses. 12) According to a regional blood bank, 13% of the first-time donors return to make a second donation within three months. In the fall of 2001, they tracked 6000 first timedonors and found 894 donated a second time within three months. Which of the following represent the approximate probability that the rate of repeat donations among the sample group was greater than the long-term rate? a)
.149 .13 P z > (.13)(.87 ) 6000

d)

P z >

.149 .13 (.149)(.851) 6000

.149 .13 P z > (.13)(.87 ) 6000

b)

c)

.13 .149 P z > ( .149 )(.851) 6000 .13 .149 P z > (.13)(.87 ) 6000

e)

13) A poll was conducted to determine the level of support within a large suburban school district for the construction of a new football stadium. Of the 655 people surveyed, 57% said they would support spending the money to construct the stadium. The poll had a margin of error of 4%. Based upon this 95% confidence interval, what level of significance should be used to test H0: p = .5 versus Ha: p > .5? a) .1 b) .05 c) .01 d) .025 e) .005

The critical z score for the given confidence interval is at p = .975. So if we use a confidence interval that covers up to .975 the matching would be .025 for a left tail test.