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W e i s s C a p i t a l M a n a g e m e n t, i n c .

Your Bear Market Survival Guide


By the weiss capital Management Investment committee
At Weiss Capital Management, we believe the current cli- funds. But, when markets are going UP, the goal of this pro-
mate of financial stress and extreme volatility in both stocks gram is to earn INTEREST INCOME in the relative safety of
and bonds could continue for a prolonged period of time. In cash. In other words, our aim is to be aggressive during bear
other words, we are in the midst of a secular bear market. markets and defensive in bull markets. We think that’s a
The question for investors is, what steps can be taken to good combination, especially during volatile conditions.
help you protect and potentially profit from declining mar- If we’re in a confirmed bear market, naturally, we’re more
kets? We feel there are several actions concerned investors likely to be aggressive, and more fully invested, in anticipa-
should consider, including: tion of further market declines. But if we’re experiencing
Building a larger reserve of cash and cash-equivalent se- a counter-trend rally during a bear market, we use inverse
curities than you might ordinarily hold, as a way to help funds much more sparingly and for shorter periods of time,
reduce risk. keeping most or all of our clients’ money in cash and earn-
ing interest.
Using market rallies as an opportunity to sell some of
your fundamentally weak holdings, to re-position your In other words, we look for key turning points in the
overall portfolio into higher-quality securities. market cycle, so you don’t have to guess the market’s next
move, and we act on our signals when the timing looks
Prudently hedge your other investments using inverse- right. This is where our professional oversight comes in.
index mutual funds, or exchange traded funds (ETFs)
— securities designed to increase in value as markets The success of the Weiss Bear Strategy lies in its adapt-
decline. ability. Our proprietary quantitative model adapts as finan-
cial markets change. During bear markets, trading signals
The Weiss Bear Strategy is another option you should are not the same as they are during bull markets, for the
consider during a bear market environment. This unique simple reason that bull and bear markets need to be traded
approach to investing has the flexibility to take advantage differently to be successful.
of prolonged periods of stock and bond market declines by
investing in inverse-index mutual funds. This strategy also The Weiss Bear Strategy has gained +41.7% since incep-
provides an important layer of professional discipline and tion (12/31/2000 through 12/31/08), while the S&P 500
guidance to your investment process. Index has lost -20.9% in value over the same time period.
And remember, that’s also through a full market cycle —
In effect, the Weiss Bear Strategy is able to “go-short” both
both bull and bear markets. It’s important to point out that
stocks and bonds to potentially benefit when markets de-
the Weiss Bear Strategy is an aggressive program, so it may
cline — without actually selling short individual securities.
not be suitable for every investor — and of course, there’s
The Bear Strategy has two “Big Picture” goals: no guarantee that past performance can be repeated. What’s
#1 To provide a “hedge” for a portion of your portfolio — more, just like with any investment strategy, you can lose
helping to reduce risks to your wealth during extended money in this program.
bear market declines. However, since we launched the Weiss Bear Strategy in
#2 To turn falling markets into potential money-making op- December 2000, a hypothetical investment of $100,000 in the
portunities. program at inception would have grown to $141,770 by the
end of 2008 ... while the same amount invested in an S&P
The Weiss Bear Strategy is a professionally managed pro- 500 Index fund would have withered to just $79,080 over the
gram that seeks to capitalize on subtle shifts in market trends. same period. Of course, actual returns will vary based on
If you have money in our Weiss Bear Strategy, and the many factors, such as when investors enter the Weiss Bear
market is declining, the goal is PROFITS — using inverse Strategy.

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The Weiss Bear Strategy


Quarterly Highlights
The economic events of 2008 will not soon be forgotten. In hindsight, one of the most
telling was the failure of Lehman Brothers in September. One of the highest-profile
financial firms to collapse last year, in addition to Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual and
AIG, was Lehman’s demise, which led to an immediate spike in risk aversion across the
global financial system.
The fourth quarter of 2008 will surely be remembered as one of the most volatile in
stock market history. In October alone, the S&P 500 Index swung 28% from high to low,
with daily moves of more than 6% common. In this unstable environment, the Weiss
Bear Strategy managed to perform well, posting a positive 3% total return, net of fees, in
Portfolio Manager the fourth quarter alone, compared to a loss of more than 21% for the S&P 500 Index.
Sebastian Leburn, CFA
For all of 2008, the Weiss Bear Strategy produced a total return of 15% – compared
Program Summary to a freefall of -37% for the S&P 500 Index over the same period1.In other words, a
hypothetical investment of $100,000 at the beginning of 2008 in the Weiss Bear Strategy
Investment Objective
would have grown to $115,000 by the end of the year2.
Long-term growth through
speculation and trading By comparison, $100,000 invested in the S&P 500, as represented by the index, last
Portfolio Composition year would have declined to $63,000 over the same period. Just to ‘get back’ to the origi-
Inverse-index mutual funds nal $100,000 value, an investor in the S&P 500 Index would need a gain of nearly 60%—
a situation that could likely take years to accomplish.
Risk Tolerance
Investors with an aggressive Keep in mind that individual client results will vary from these composite perfor-
risk tolerance seeking to mance figures, depending on when an account was established in the Weiss Bear Strat-
benefit during prolonged stock/
egy and how the portfolio was being positioned at that time.
bond market declines (not
recommended for keep-safe As the fourth quarter began in October of 2008, the Weiss Bear Strategy was allocated
funds) substantially ‘short’ the stock market using an inverse fund designed to move opposite
Benchmark the S&P 500 index. The program also held a ‘short’ position in the Treasury bond market
S&P 500 Index with a smaller portion of the portfolio assets. As the stock market sell-off intensified in
Inception Date early October, we took some profits in our short equity fund position, cutting it to ap-
December 31, 2000 proximately 35% on October 10th as stocks struggled to find a bottom.
Minimum Initial Investment Stocks continued to decline in November, stabilizing somewhat by mid-month. This
$100,000 (Effective 9/5/08) signaled us to take profits once again in inverse stock funds. However, renewed selling
Annual Management Fee pressure led us back into the inverse equity fund for half of the portfolio in late Novem-
1.50% ber. So far, the late November low has been the low point in the current bear market.
Recommended Holding
From November 21 to the end of the year, the S&P 500 staged an impressive 20% rally3.
Period With stocks moving higher, the Weiss Bear strategy reduced its inverse equity fund
Three-to-five years holdings in December, selling the entire position by mid-month at a loss.
Portfolio Manager Looking at the year as a whole, while stocks collapsed in 2008, the primary benefactor
Sebastian Leburn, CFA was long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, as investors rushed to the relative safety of govern-
ment debt. In December, Treasury bond prices reached record highs (and record-low
yields), as the Federal Reserve reduced short-term interest rates to effectively 0% and
stated that they may purchase long-term Treasury securities in an attempt to keep yields
low.

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W e i s s C a p i t a l M a n a g e m e n t, i n c .

In early December, the Weiss Bear Strategy took a 40% Strategy may not hold an inverse equity fund position in
position in an inverse, long-bond fund to potentially profit early 2009. Instead, we may focus on potential profit op-
from an eventual shift back to higher yields. While Trea- portunities via our current “short” position in the inverse
sury prices continued to rise after our purchase, we began Treasury bond fund.
to see a change in trend late in the year, as prices on long-
term Treasury bonds began to drop. Should this continue, During this turbulent, bear-market environment, we
we may boost this “short” position, seeking to capitalize recommend you consider the Weiss Bear Strategy for two
on rising interest rates. main reasons. First, this strategy can help you hedge a
portion of your core, long-term equity and fixed income
At present, we believe stocks may head higher in the
first few months of 2009 before potentially running into investments, which may be vulnerable to another market
renewed selling pressure as the enthusiasm over any sell-off. Second, you may be able to profit during key
sustainable economic improvement is pushed further into phases of stock and bond bear-market declines — precisely
the future. Should this scenario materialize, the Weiss Bear what the Weiss Bear Strategy is designed to do.

Bloomberg data: 12/31/08


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Based on actual performance for the period of January 1–December 31, 2008, net of fees, but including reinvestment of
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dividends, income and capital gains.


Bloomberg data: 2/2/09
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Weiss bear strategy overview

This unique strategy provides investors with the opportunity to take advantage of broad and sustained U.S. stock-
and/or bond-market declines.
If you own stock or other investments that could decline during a prolonged bear market, you may want to consider
this aggressive strategy as a hedge to protect your portfolio.
The Weiss Bear Strategy is eligible for investment by IRAs, 401(k)s, and other retirement plans.

This material may contain forward-looking statements regarding intent and belief with regards to the program and the market in general. Readers
are cautioned that such statements are not a guarantee of future performance and actual results may differ materially from those statements.

Weiss Bear Strategy Returns Thru 12/31/2008


4th 3-Year 5-Year Since Inception Since Inception
YTD Total 1-Year Total
Qtr Total Annualized Annualized Annualized Return Cumulative Return
Return Return
Return Return Return (12/31/00) (12/31/00)

Weiss Bear Strategy Net Returns 3.03% 15.08% 15.08% 6.76% 3.11% 4.46% 41.77%

Weiss Bear Strategy Gross Returns 3.39% 16.74% 16.74% 8.32% 4.66% 6.08% 60.29%

S&P 500 Index -21.94% -37.00% -37.00% -8.36% -2.19% -2.89% -20.92%

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W e i s s C a p i t a l M a n a g e m e n t, i n c .

Important Disclaimers and Disclosures


Investment Risk Benchmark
Past performance is not indicative of future results and as with The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index that consists
any investment program it is possible to lose money by investing of 500 large-cap US stocks, which assumes the reinvestment of
in the program. There are no guarantees that the program will be dividends and capital gains, and excludes management fees,
able to achieve its stated objectives. transactions costs and expenses. Because the S&P 500 Index is the
most widely recognized index of equity prices and commonly
used benchmark for investors, it is believed to be an appropriate
Suitability broad-based securities market index against which to compare the
The Weiss Bear Strategy is suitable for investors with an aggressive program’s long-term performance. It is not possible to invest in
risk tolerance seeking to benefit during prolonged periods of an index. Index return data source: Bloomberg.
stock/bond market declines. The suitability of this program for
IRAs, 401(k)s and other retirement plans is at the discretion of
the plan’s sponsor or fiduciary. The program has a recommended Important Disclosures
holding period of three-to-five years and is not recommended for Additional expenses such as transaction costs associated with
keep-safe funds. In pursuing the Weiss Bear Strategy’s investment purchases made through the custodian may be incurred. Mutual
objective through the purchase and sale of mutual fund shares, funds are also subject to expenses, which are shared indirectly by
Weiss Capital Management, Inc.’s investment team does not all shareholders.
consider either a fund’s potential for generation of current income This strategy’s portfolio may be rebalanced as deemed necessary by
through declaration of and payment of income, dividends or the portfolio manager. Rebalancing may generate additional fees.
capital gains distributions, or the tax consequences of buying and
The Weiss Bear Strategy may invest in the Weiss Treasury Only
selling fund shares. Please consult with your tax adviser before
Money Market Fund, which Weiss Capital Management, Inc., or its
investing in the program.
affiliates provide advisory, administrative, distribution and other
services, and receive compensation. An investment in the Fund
Performance is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation or any other government agency. Although the Fund
Performance of the Weiss Bear Strategy depends on the
seeks to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 per share,
performance of the underlying mutual funds in which it invests. In
it is possible to lose money by investing in the Fund. A prospectus
turn, performance of the underlying mutual funds depends on the
can be obtained online at www.WeissFund.com.
performance of equity and fixed-income markets.
• September 5, 2008, the strategy’s minimum investment was
Returns are based on a composite of actual client accounts.
raised to $100,000 from $50,000.
Individual client returns may vary depending on, among other
things, account opening date, contributions, withdrawals, and • October 1, 2005, the Program’s stated annual management fee
fees. Actual fees may vary depending on, among other things, the was lowered to 1.50% from 2.00%.
applicable fee schedule and portfolio size. • October 1, 2005 the Program’s minimum investment was
Net returns cited include actual management fees, commissions, lowered to $50,000 from $100,000.
and other similar fees charged on transactions, and reinvestment • April 1, 2005, Sebastian Leburn, CFA, became the portfolio
of dividends, income and capital gains. Gross returns cited exclude manager. Prior to this date, Anthony Sagami of Harvest
management fees and are net of actual commissions and other Advisors was the sub-adviser.
similar fees charged on transactions, and include dividends, income For additional program information, please read the firm’s ADV
and capital gains. Part II before investing.

Weiss Capital Management, Inc.


7111 Fairway Drive, Suite 102, Palm Beach Gardens, Florida 33418

Toll Free: 800.814.3045 Local: 561.515.8558 Fax: 561.627.1011 Email: WCM@WeissCM.com Web Site: www.WeissCM.com

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