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Background Briefing: ASEANs 22nd Summit and Bruneis Role as Chair Carlyle A. Thayer April 25, 2013

[client name deleted] 1. The 22nd ASEAN Summit this time was held two weeks after the (preparatory) Foreign Ministers Meeting (AMM), not like the previous occasions by other countries such as Indonesia in 2011 and Cambodia 2012, where the AMM took place just the day before the Summit. By having the AMM and ASEAN Summit two weeks apart, Brunei was able to mend every disagreement or issues arising from the AMM, and make sure that the Summit would follow smoothly and successfully. Within those two weeks, we saw Bruneis Sultan visiting the US and the Philippines. Do you think Brunei is tactically clever by doing so? ANSWER: The Sultan also consulted with President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Boao Forum. The Malay political culture emphasizes consultation and consensus. Malay culture also tries to avoid public shows of friction and disunity. The Sultan of Brunei speaks with greater authority than his other ASEAN counterparts. The Sultan is very experienced in foreign affairs. Yes he is being tactically shrewd to consult with all. 2. The South China Sea issue is very quiet at this Summit. How it will evolve under Bruneis Chairmanship? And what would you expect from Brunei Chairmanship in 2013? ANSWER: The fact that the South China Sea was not on the formal agenda does not mean it wasn't discussed. Recall that Cambodia took it off the agenda and they put it back on due to protests from the Philippines. There was not need to do this because the Philippines and other countries were free to raise maritime security concerns. Reportedly there was supposed to be an ASEAN statement on the South Chin Sea issued prior to the Summit. If is it issued it would be the third ASEAN Statement on the South China Sea; the first was issued in 1992 and the second in 1995. The ASEAN Chair must reflect consensus but the Chair can also be proactive to forge agreement. Brunei has already indicated it will give high priority to achieving a Code

2 of Conduct by October. While this appears unlikely at this stage it nevertheless puts some diplomatic pressure on China to respond. China knows that if it does not give the appearance of going along with ASEAN on COC discussions it risks being singled out in November when the East Asia Summit meets. Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, ASEANs 22nd Summit, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, April 25, 2013. Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs are archived at Scribd.com