Migration: A future challenge for the South Caucasus?

A recent study by research company Gallup on migration in the post-Soviet space (not including the Baltic states), based on data collected between 2010 and 2012, shows that Armenians are most likely to want to move to another country (40 percent), and Uzbeks are the least likely at just 5 percent, compared with an average of 15 percent across the 12 former Soviet republics. The main reasons given for a desire to emigrate are economic in nature, with better living conditions cited as the priority for 52 percent of respondents. It is generally believed that migrants from the post-Soviet region emigrate in order to provide a better future for their children. However, in the country where this is cited most often as the primary factor, Turkmenistan, just 6 percent of the population identified themselves as potential migrants. A similar trend can be seen in Armenia, where 40 percent want to move but only 13 percent state their children's future as the main reason. Looking specifically at the South Caucasus, as mentioned above, Armenians have the greatest desire to emigrate, and 14 percent of respondents in Azerbaijan and Georgia share this same wish. However, the motivations across the three South Caucasian countries differ.

South Caucasus' migration mosaic

In addition to the Gallup poll reviewed above, the Caucasus Research Resource Centers' (CRRC) Caucasus Barometer surveys are useful for understanding the changing dynamics across different socio-economic factors in addition to migration. According to the Caucasus Barometer (2011), interest in temporary migration stands at 25 percent among Armenians, 16 percent among Azerbaijanis and 11 percent among Georgians. The different historical, political and economic narratives of each country cast a different light on their populations' motivations for staying or leaving. For example, in Armenia, since 2008, the trend of temporary and permanent migration has increased mainly due to the world economic crisis, which has weakened the country's position internationally. Data shows that migration spiked in 2008 compared to previous years. However, according to the Armenian State Migration Service, over 11 months of 2012, the difference between leavers and returnees was about 72,000 people, from which it can be deduced that approximately 70,000-80,000 people are leaving the country annually. A more worrying trend is that unlike migration from Armenia in the past, the current migrants are much younger and much more likely to leave permanently than older migrants; this adds to the problem of the country's declining population. The problem seems somewhat intractable; Armenia's economic situation is the primary motivation for migration, and currently the government does not have sufficient funding to resolve the various socio-economic problems. Borrowing money is tricky, given that massive borrowing from abroad has more than doubled the country's public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio, which now stands at around 40 percent and leaves very little room for further borrowing. Meanwhile, according to the preliminary 2011 Caucasus Barometer, socio-economic problems are those consistently prompting people to leave. In the case of Azerbaijan, according to the 2011 Caucasus Barometer's data, 21 percent of respondents are interested in permanent emigration, and 52 percent have an interest in moving away on a temporary basis. According to official data, Azerbaijan now has a positive net migration rate thanks to its stabilized economy. From 2008-2010, 4,700 people left the country and 8,100 people arrived for permanent residence. The country's strong energy sector means that the government is better positioned to balance or stop permanent migration abroad than its counterparts in Armenia and Georgia. Looking at the different reasons given by potential migrants, based on the preliminary data from the 2011 Caucasus Barometer, of the 21 percent of respondents who want to emigrate permanently, 29 percent are job seekers, 34 percent do not trust the educational system, 30 percent do not trust the healthcare system and 28 percent are in the younger age bracket (18-35). The Azerbaijanis who want to emigrate permanently are not, in general, the country's top educational achievers, and in this sense brain drain is not the primary concern. On the other hand, there are cases of citizens going abroad for higher education and seeking asylum and/or citizenship once there. In Georgia, the 2011 Caucasus Barometer data shows that just 6 percent of respondents are interested in permanent migration, but the percentage interested in temporary migration jumps up to 47 percent. To understand this dynamic, it is important to take into account the significant achievements of the Georgian government over the last seven to nine years, namely the liberalization of movement to EU countries and the support for circular migration. A crucial factor is the establishment of a legal regime that supports the employment of Georgian citizens abroad. On the other hand, the 2008 August War with Russia negatively affected the status of Georgians living and working in Russia. The conflict also significantly damaged bilateral trade, badly affecting the domestic socio-economic situation. However, the government has sought to mitigate this effect by making

Georgia more attractive to foreign direct investment (FDI). Indeed, migration issues are far from a top priority for a country when it faces a wide range of territorial, political and economic problems, despite the fact that the EU is putting pressure on Georgia to implement a migration policy based on the EU model. Given Tbilisi's EU-integration aims, the government is mindful of pressure from the EU on this issue. Finally, what is clear is that migration poses an increasing challenge for the South Caucasus region. Taking into account the various factors at play -- aging populations, lower birth rates, illegal immigration and other country-specific issues -- there is a risk that in the mid to long term, migration could become an important regional security challenge.