THE BALANCE OF POWER: In Search of Plan B

see page 41 for important disclaimer

Purasisi Jinadasa CAL Research April 2013

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Contents
Page

Executive Summary: The balance of power I. Strong shift to coal-fired power not enough II. A 2013 price hike of 25-30% necessary to buy time III. Oil & Water: Raindrops arent enough Appendix 1: Sobering Stats

3 11

21

28 36
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: THE BALANCE OF POWER

In Search of Plan B
High cost diesel/fuel oil and inefficient gas comprise 1420MW of power capacity that needs to be phased out

As a stop gap, prices in 2013 must rise 25-30% to compensate for the inefficient thermal power output
Adding coal-fired power partly provides an affordable electricity generating option ( c.LKR 8.3/KWh in 2013E)

If GDP grows 6% in 2013, Sri Lankas oil import bill may reach USD 6.7bn, of which USD 1.3bn is for electricity
Hydro has limited potential to further improve the energy balance unless record rainfall occurs

Plan B: larger scale, cost-effective capacity additions, plus CPC/CEB reforms

High cost diesel/fuel oil and inefficient gas comprise 1420MW of power capacity that needs to be phased out
Cost/KWh (LKR) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 GAS TURBINE 215MW 1205MW 305MW

300MW

1383MW

The power ministry indicates that c.42% of available generation capacity comes from higher cost thermal sources (gas and diesel)
* Cost/KWh are estimates by PUCSL for 2013 and costs reflect peak/off-peak energy production allocation

DIESEL/FUEL

10
5 0% 20%

RENEWABLE

COAL

HYDRO

40%

60%

80%

100%
Renewable includes mini-hydro

Installed Capacity

5
Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, Ministry of Power and Energy, PUCSL and CAL Research

As a stop gap, prices in 2013 must rise 25-30% to compensate for the inefficient thermal power output
Cost/MWh (LKR) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Thermal Coal Hydro Total Cost/MWh Total Revenue/MWh

The average sales price of a KWh in 2011 was LKR 13.6. Based on the 2012E energy mix, the avg. sales price needs to increase to c.LKR 18 (+c.30%) for energy production to break-even
* Hydro production has no cost. Refer Appendix (slide 38) for a detailed cost break-down

* Cost incorporates peak/off-peak energy production allocation

6
Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, PUCSL and CAL Research

Adding coal-fired power partly provides an affordable electricity generating option (c.LKR 8.3/KWh in 2013E)
GWh 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 12,409 5,000 c.36% 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 1,038 Puttlam Coal Phase I (2011) Puttlam Coal Phase II (2014E) 300MW Power Plant Additional 300MW
* By 2016E, the capacity factor at both coal plants is expected to be c.70%

Utilized Capacity

Unutilized Capacity

2,492

16,208

c.15% 2013E 5,786 1,590 Contribution by Coal 2016E Total Generation

Both coal plants are expected to run at a c.70% capacity factor once fully operational. By 2016E, coal may comprise c.35%+ of energy generated. The Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) estimates power generated by coal to be LKR 8.3/KWh in 2013
7

Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, Ministry of Power and Energy, PUCSL and CAL Research

If GDP grows 6% in 2013, Sri Lankas oil import bill may reach USD 6.7bn*, of which USD 1.3bn is for electricity
USD millions 8,000 7,000 6,000 1,218 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 (855) (1,000) (2,000) 2011 2012E CALs 6% GDP 2013E 1,799 Total Oil Import Bill (USD mn) CPC Loss (USD mn) 694 931 Addition to Oil Import Bill (USD mn)

(701)

Gov't 2013 7.5% GDP Target

* Includes a c.USD 180mn saving due to increased coal power generation

8
Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority and CAL Research

Hydro has limited potential to further improve the energy balance unless record rainfall occurs
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E Plus 25% Plus 45% Rainfall Rainfall Contribtuion to Power from Hydro Average rainfall catchment (mm)-RHS 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 -

Record rainfall in 2010 resulted in a c.53% hydro contribution. Rainfall may have to increase by 45% from the 10-year average of c.3500mm (base case 2013E) for a c.60% hydro contribution

9
Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, CBSL and CAL Research

Plan B: larger scale, cost-effective capacity additions, plus CPC/CEB reforms

The country is likely to have commercial gas deposits onshore and offshore, but natural gas infrastructure investment minimums are high Imported LNG could be a major contributor, but scale and sovereign guarantees are factors Biomass holds great potential, but securing longterm affordable supply can prove vexing

Hydro appears mostly tapped; wind and solar remain too expensive near term
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II. STRONG SHIFT TO COAL-FIRED POWER NOT ENOUGH

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Strong shift to coal-fired power not enough

In 2011, the energy source mix resulted in a cost/KWh of c.LKR 15 (vs. an avg. sales price of LKR 13.6) The story worsens in 2013 as PUCSL estimates c.50%+ of energy to be provided by diesel/fuel oil In 2013E, PUCSL expects IPPs to provide c.35% at an average combined c.LKR 21 cost/KWh Making the blended 2013 cost/KWh c.LKR 17 By 2016E, the Govt expects c.36% of energy to be sourced from coal-fired plants, up from 15% in 2013E The 2016E energy mix may result in an avg. cost/KWh of LKR 10.5, down LKR 6.5 (38%) from 2013E However, a total cost of c.LKR 14.3/KWh would still be 5% above the average selling price of LKR 13.6/KWh The additional 360MW coal-fired capacity may cost c.USD 800mn by 2016
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In 2011, the energy source mix resulted in a cost/KWh of c.LKR 15* (vs. an avg. sales price of LKR 13.6)
GWh 7,000 6,000 5,000 26 4,000 20 3,000
Avg. cost of production: c.LKR 15/KWh

40 35 30 25

34

15 10 5 0

2,000 1,000 4 Thermal (Diesel/Fuel) Gas Turbine Hydro, Coal and Renewables Cost/KWh (LKR)-RHS Power Generated (GWh)

* Cost does not include transmission, distribution and debt payment (c.LKR 3.8/KWh in 2013E) and average cost incorporates peak/off-peak energy production allocation

Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, PUCSL and CAL Research

Cost/KWh (LKR) 13

The story worsens in 2013 as PUCSL estimates c.50%+ of energy to be produced via high cost diesel/fuel oil
GWh 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 64% 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Hydro Coal Utilization (GWh) Renewable Diesel Gas Excess Capacity (GWh) 34% 70% 27% 4%

CAL expects total energy generated to reach c.13,000 GWh in 2013, with PUCSL expecting energy demand to reach 10,950 GWh. The PUCSL estimates c.50%+ of energy generated to come from diesel/fuel power plants

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Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, PUCSL and CAL Research

In 2013E, PUCSL expects IPPs to provide c.35% of total power at an average combined c.LKR 21 cost/KWh
Cost/KWh (LKR) 25.0

20.0

15.0

A larger proportion of CEB power comes from hydro, thereby reducing generation costs (peak hours supplied by lower cost sources)

10.0

IPP

5.0

CEB*
* Cost does not include transmission, distribution or debt payment (which will bring non-IPP cost to c.LKR 16)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Contribution to Power Generated

* Cost incorporates peak/off-peak energy production allocation

15
Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, PUCSL and CAL Research

Making the blended 2013 cost/KWh c.LKR 17

Cost/KWh to Generate Power (LKR) 45 40 35 30 25
Proposed avg. CEB selling price: LKR20.1/KWh

HYDRO

COAL RENW

DIESEL/FUEL GAS TURBINE

20 15 10 5 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Contribution to Power Generated

Current avg. CEB selling price: LKR13.6/KWh

In 2013E, the PUCSL estimates a majority of contribution to meet demand to come from diesel/fuel sources at an average cost of c.LKR 22/KWh
Cost does not include transmission, distribution or debt payment (an additional c.LKR 3.8/KWh)

* Cost incorporates peak/off-peak energy production allocation

16
Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, PUCSL and CAL Research

By 2016E, the Govt expects c.36% of energy to be sourced from coal-fired plants, up from 15% in 2013E
2013E Total Energy Generated c.13k GWh 2016E Total Energy Generated c.16k GWh
Thermal (Gas) 2% CEB Hydro 32% Thermal (Diesel/Fuel) 51% Thermal (Diesel/Fuel) 21%

Thermal (Gas) 1% CEB Hydro 29%

Coal 15%

Renewable 9%

Coal 36%

Renewable 4%

The govt expects energy generated to grow by c.24% by 2016E

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Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, PUCSL and CAL Research

The 2016E energy mix may result in an avg. cost/KWh of LKR 10.51, down LKR 6.5 (38%) from 2013E
GWh 25,000
LKR 0/KWh LKR 8.3/KWh LKR 19/KWh LKR 22/KWh LKR 46/KWh

20,000

15,000 38% 10,000 70%

18% 47%

5,000
39% 0 Hydro Coal Utilization (GWh) Renewable Diesel Gas Excess Capacity (GWh)
1Cost

Total energy generated is expected to reach c.16,000 GWh, while generation capacity is expected to be c.34,600 GWh. Coal is expected to provide c.36% of energy generated. The avg. cost/KWh may be reduced to c.LKR 10.5 from current c.LKR 17

does not include distribution, transmission and other expenses (c.LKR3.8/ KWh in 2013E) and are based on 2013E

18
Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, PUCSL and CAL Research

However, a total cost of c.LKR 14.3/KWh1 would still be 5% above the average selling price of LKR 13.6/KWh
Cost/KWh (LKR) 16 14 12 10 8 6 10.5 4 2 Cost to Generate a KWh Additional Cost/KWh
1Cost

3.8

Additional costs from distribution, transmission and debt repayment

Sri Lanka can still benefit from new, cheaper energy sources. At a c.36% contribution from coal, total cost/KWh still falls short of the current selling price/KWh of LKR 13.6.

includes distribution, transmission and other expenses of c.LKR3.8/ KWh (2013E)

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Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, PUCSL and CAL Research

The additional 360MW coal-fired capacity may cost c.USD 800mn by 2016
USD/MWh 300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

By 2016E, the coal power plant is expected to generate c.5800 GWh, which indicates a capex on coal power expansion of c.USD 808mn over the next 3 years at USD 256k/MWh of new capacity

50,000

COAL

HYDRO

RENW

THERMAL

* Costs are calculated based on total estimated project costs as published by the Power Ministry

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Source: Ministry of Power and Energy, Bloomberg and CAL Research

II. A 2013 PRICE HIKE OF 25-30% NECESSARY TO BUY TIME

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A 2013 price hike of 25-30% necessary to buy time

In March, PUCSL proposed a 26% blended tariff increase to LKR 20.1, which now awaits legislative action On the 2012E energy mix, the avg. selling price needs a c.30% increase for energy producers to break even In 2013E, high cost thermal energy (44% sales) predominates over hydro (37%) and coal (15%) A c.15% contribution from coal would require c.70% capacity utilization at the 300MW coal plant... which may reduce the required price increase to break even to only c.25%
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In March, the PUCSL proposed a 26% blended tariff increase to LKR 20.1, which now awaits legislative action
Tariff Category Domestic Religious General Purpose Hotel Purpose Industrial Street Lighting Total Total/KWh (LKR) Estimated Revenue at Existing Tariff for 2013 (LKR mn) 50,700 420 64,791 3,928 54,000 0 173,839 15.9 Estimated Revenue at Proposed Tariff (LKR mn) 84,987 420 69,923 4,632 60,170 0 220,132 20.1 Estimated Cost of Estimated Subsidy/ Generation for 2013 (Surplus) at Proposed Tariff (LKR mn) (LKR mn) 86,715 1,375 55,163 4,948 76,879 3,043 228,151 20.8* 1,728 955 (14,760) 316 16,709 3,043 7,991 0.7

* Cost includes transmission, distribution and debt payment (c.LKR 3.8/KWh in 2013E)

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Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, PUCSL and CAL Research

On the 2012E energy mix, the avg. selling price needs a c.30% increase for energy producers to break even
2012E
Gross Generation (GWh) Generation Cost/MWh (LKR) Avg. Sales Price/MWh (LKR) Profit/(Shortfall) (LKR) Price Adjustment Required/MWh (LKR)

Thermal Hydro Coal

5,819 4,362 1,535

33,900 8,300

13,600 13,600 13,600

(68,500,000) 59,500,000 8,200,000

22,100 -

Price Adjustment Required

* Price adjustment does not include distribution, transmission and other costs (c.LKR 3.8/KWh in 2013E)

17,800*

CAL has assumed coal to form c.12% of the energy mix in 2012E (c.9% of the energy mix in 2011) The above energy mix is estimated to have contributed to c.94% of energy produced in 2012E Cost incorporates peak/off-peak energy production allocation

24
Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, PUCSL and CAL Research

In 2013E, high cost thermal energy (44% sales) predominates over hydro (37%) and coal (15%)
GWh 14,000

12,000 THERMAL 44% LKR 23/KWh

10,000

8,000

COAL 15% - LKR 8.3/KWh OTHER 4% - LKR 18/KWh

6,000

4,000 HYDRO 37% LKR 0/KWh

* An additional 421GWh of hydro production is included for 2013E, due to the introduction of a 150MW hydro plant

2,000

Energy Generation Mix 2013E Thermal Other Coal Hydro

* Cost does not include transmission, distribution and debt payment (c.LKR 3.8 in 2013E)

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Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, PUCSL and CAL Research

A c.15% contribution from coal would require c.70%1 capacity utilization at the 300MW coal plant...
GWh 3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000 c.60% 500

c.70%

The 300MW coal power plant may produce c.2,600 GWh of power if at full capacity. CAL assumes a capacity factor of c.70% in 2013E, which would translate into c.600k tons of coal required, resulting in coal providing c.15% of the energy mix
1The

2012E Utilization Excess Capacity 2013E

PUCSL has estimated a c.70% capacity factor for the coal plant in 2013

26
Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, PUCSL and CAL Research

which may reduce the required price increase to break even to only c.25%
2013E
Gross Generation (GWh) Generation Cost/MWh (LKR) Avg. Sales Price/MWh (LKR) Profit/(Shortfall) (LKR) Price Adjustment Required/MWh (LKR)

Thermal Hydro

5,800 4,800

33,900 -

13,600 13,600

(75,000,000) 65,000,000

21,000 13,600

Coal Price Adjustment Required

1,900

8,300

13,600

10,200,000

13,600

17,000

Price adjustment does not include distribution, transmission and other costs (c.LKR 3.8/ KWh in 2013E)

CAL has assumed coal to form c.15% of the energy mix in 2013E (c.9% of the energy mix in 2011) Cost incorporates peak/off-peak energy production allocation

27
Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, PUCSL and CAL Research

III. OIL & WATER: RAINDROPS ARENT ENOUGH

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Oil & Water: Raindrops arent enough

In 2012, over c.30% of Sri Lankas import bill was for petroleum products

However, only c.20% of Sri Lanka petroleum imports go towards power generation
Even when hydro comprised c.53% of power generated in 2010 (highest rainfall in past 10 years) savings from petroleum imports for power generation amounted to just c.USD 146mn A 60% (vs. 37% expected) hydro contribution might result in a c.USD 660mn savings in 2013E CALs 2013E includes a c.USD 180mn savings due to greater coal-fired power and normal 3500mm rainfall
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In 2012, over c.30% of Sri Lankas import bill was for petroleum products
Import 14.1 Bill USD (bn) 25% 10.2 13.5 20.3 19.1

22%

24%

25%

32%

75%

78%

76%

75%

68%

As a result of sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the overall cost of oil imports in 2012 rose to c.30% of the total import bill

2008

2009 Rest

2010

2011

2012E

Oil's portion of import bill

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Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, CBSL and CAL Research

However, only c.20% of Sri Lanka petroleum imports go towards power generation
Millions Litres 10,000 9,000 1,606 8,000 1,385 1,862

7,000
6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 1,320 1,326 1,021

7,501 6,469 5,579 4,252 3,426 3,422

2,000
1,000 -

Majority of petroleum imports are required to drive economic growth and not power plants. As real GDP grows, the amount of fuel needed by the private sector will increase

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012E

2013E

Oil Imports for other (Litres)

Oil Imports for Power (Litres)

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Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority and CAL Research

Even when hydro comprised c.53% of power generated in 2010 (highest rainfall in past ten years)
GWh 14,000 5,000 4,500 12,000 4,000 10,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 6,000 2,000

8,000

Over the past 10 years, the average contribution from Hydro has been c.40% and thermal has been c.57% to total power generated
* Renewables include wind and mini-hydro

4,000

1,500
1,000

2,000
500 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E -

Hydro (GWh) Renewables (GWh) Average rainfall catchment (mm)-RHS

Thermal (GWh) Coal (GWh)

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Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority and CAL Research

savings from petroleum imports for power generation amounted to just USD 146mn
USD Thousands 700,000

600,000 146,416 500,000

Savings due to volume decline

400,000

300,000 491,161 Cost at 2009 prices

200,000

100,000 Additional cost in 2010 due to oil price increase

(21,128) (100,000)

The avg. price per barrel of oil increased by 26% in 2010, partly offsetting the savings from the volume decline

33
Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority and CAL Research

A 60% (vs. 37% expected) hydro contribution might result in a c.USD 660mn savings in 2013E
2010
Rainfall (mm) Fuel for power generation (thsd ltrs) Savings due to volume decline (USD) % Hydro Contribution to Power 4,333 1,021,360 146,416,336

2011
3,217 1,385,000 (219,477,611)

2012E 2013E Base*

3,493 1,414,174 (20,869,888) 3,500 1,622,389 (159,862,971)

+25% Rainfall
4,375 1,287,422 257,180,277

+45% Rainfall
5,735 766,884 656,838,682

53%

35%

35%

37%

46%

60%

* Base case: 3500mm rainfall is the average rainfall for the past 10 years

Even with a 40%+ increase in rainfall from our base case of 3500mm, savings would amount to only c.USD 660mn (c.10% of the 2012 and c.11% of CALs expected 2013 petroleum import bill)
CAL has assumed petroleum price/barrel for Sri Lanka to be USD 117 in 2013E CAL expects energy generation by sources other than thermal oil and hydro to amount to c.20% in our 2013E base case (of which c.15% is from coal)

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Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority and CAL Research

CALs 2013E includes a c.USD 180mn savings due to greater coal-fired power and normal rainfall of 3500mm
2011
Power from Coal (GWh) Coal Used (MT) Fuel Saved (ltrs mn) 1,028 435,502 277

2012E
1,535 479,347 192

2013E
1,918 599,184 240

USD Savings (mn)

163

147

176

* The PUCSL has estimated a c.70% capacity factor for the coal plant in 2013

CALs 2013E includes a c.USD 180mn savings from the decline in fuel used due to an increase in coal generated power. CAL assumes c.15% of energy needs in 2013 to be provided by coal
CAL has assumed petroleum price/barrel for Sri Lanka to be USD 117 in 2013E CAL expects energy generation by sources other than thermal oil and hydro to amount to c.20% in our 2013E base case (of which c.15% from coal)

35
Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority and CAL Research

APPENDIX 1: SOBERING STATS

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Appendix 1: Sobering Stats

2013 Jan-Jun PUCSL estimates c.LKR 20/KWh blended cost Energy losses in transmission and distribution have averaged a high 18% since 2006

Historical coal prices and futures suggest actual 2013 supply costs could be below PUCSLs USD 140/MT est.

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2013 Jan-Jun PUCSL estimates LKR20/KWh blended cost

Plant (Cost/KWh)-LKR CEB Hydro Mainly in the Central Province GTSM Kolonnawa (Colombo District) DSP Sapugaskanda (Gampaha District) DSPX Sapugaskanda (Gampaha District) DAPL Sapugaskanda (Gampaha District) CCKP Wellampitiya (Colombo District) CAES Wellampitiya (Colombo District) DCPL A Barge in Colombo Port (Colombo District) DPUT Puttlam (Puttlam District) DEMB Embilipitiya (Ratnapura District) CCKW Wattala (Gampaha District) CPUT Puttlam (Puttlam District) RENW Small plants across the island GT7 Kolonnawa (Colombo District) DCHU Jaffna (Jaffna District) DAGG Jaffna (Jaffna District) DNOR Jaffna (Jaffna District) DNCHU Jaffna (Jaffna District) Monthly Energy Cost (LKR mn) Cost/KWh-Thermal Cost/KWh-RENW Cost/KWh-Gas Turbines Cost/Kwh-Hydro Cost/KWh-Combined Capacity Generation Cost Transmission, Distribution & Debt Cost/KWh Total Cost/KWh 6-mos January 19.1 17.7 15.1 24.9 25.9 16.9 17.0 17.4 18.7 8.3 16.7 27.5 22.4 19.2 15.2 13,697 20.0 16.7 13.2 February 69.2 19.5 18.0 15.1 25.2 26.0 16.9 17.1 17.5 18.7 8.3 18.6 39.0 27.6 29.5 19.3 15.2 12,934 21.0 18.6 41.4 13.4 March 66.6 19.1 17.7 15.1 25.7 25.9 16.9 17.0 17.4 18.7 8.3 18.6 39.0 27.5 33.0 19.2 15.2 14,334 20.9 18.6 42.0 13.3 2.43 3.81 20.0 April 25.1 23.5 26.3 24.3 26.1 24.5 21.3 23.5 24.3 8.3 18.4 27.5 33.0 19.2 21.0 14,100 24.1 18.4 14.1 May 25.0 23.4 26.2 26.1 26.6 24.5 21.3 23.4 24.3 8.3 17.0 27.5 33.0 19.2 21.0 14,688 24.4 17.0 13.7 June 25.1 23.5 26.2 31.2 25.9 24.5 21.3 23.5 24.4 8.3 18.2 27.5 33.0 19.2 21.0 15,463 25.4 18.2 14.7

Capacity generation and transmission, distribution and debt costs are for the whole year (2013). Cost/KWh for generation only is LKR 16.2 for the 6-mos Cost/KWh is based on expected generation by the specified plant for the specified month

38
Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, PUCSL and CAL Research

Energy losses in transmission and distribution have averaged a high 18% since 2006
GWh 13,000

12,000

11,000

10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000 2006 2007 2008 Gross Generation (GWh) 2009 2010 Power Sold (GWh) 2011 2012E

39
Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, PUCSL and CAL Research

Historical coal prices and futures suggest actual 2013 supply costs could be below PUCLs c.USD 140/MT est.
USD/Ton
130 120
Australian Thermal Coal (FOB)

110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 40
Source: IndexMundi, NYMEX, CAL Research

Indonesian Coal Prices (Sub-bituminous; FOB)

Central Appalachian Coal (FOB) For 2013E, the PUCSLs estimated coal price: c.USD 140/MT (including freight)

Disclaimer
This document has been prepared and issued on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources, believed to be reliable. Capital Alliance Securities (Private) Limited however does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates given constitute a judgment as of the date of the material and are subject to change without notice. This report is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The recipient of this report must make their own independent decision regarding any securities, investments or financial instruments mentioned herein. Securities or financial instruments mentioned may not be suitable to all investors. Capital Alliance Securities (Private) Limited its directors, officers, consultants, employees, outsourced research providers associates or business partner, will not be responsible, for any claims damages, compensation, suits, damages, loss, costs, charges, expenses, outgoing or payments including attorneys fees which recipients of the reports suffers or incurs directly or indirectly arising out of actions taken as a result of this report. This report is for the use of the intended recipient only. Access, disclosure, copying, distribution or reliance on any of it by anyone else is prohibited and may be a criminal offence. APPROVAL IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO PUBLIC DISCLOSURE OF CONTENTS HEREIN

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Contacts
Research Team Tel No: +94 11 231 7777 (General) Email: teamresearch@capitalalliance.lk Head of Research Purasisi Jinadasa Tel No: +94 11 231 7786 Email: purasisi@capitalalliance.lk Udeeshan Jonas Tel No: +94 11 231 7746 Email: udeeshan@capitalalliance.lk Reshan Wediwardane Email: reshan@capitalalliance.lk

Dushan De Silva Email: dushan@capitalalliance.lk

Thushani De Silva Email: thushani@capitalalliance.lk

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