Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Petrol prices cut by Re 1 a litre
The retail selling prices of petrol was cut by Rs 1 a litre, excluding value added tax (VAT), with effect from Monday midnight because of a drop in international oil prices. Including VAT, the prices would now be down by Rs 1.20 in Delhi to Rs 66.09, as compared to Rs 67.29 now, making it the third reduction in a month. Since the previous price change, international prices of petrol have gone down from $119.23 per barrel to $116.61 per barrel. Thus, it has been decided to pass on the benefit to customers, and, accordingly, the aforesaid reduction in the retail-selling price of petrol is being effected. It may be noted the Corporation has incurred losses of nearly Rs 500 Crore (OMCs Rs 1,050 Crore) on sale of petrol in the last financial year, Indian Oil Corporation said in a statement on Monday. Prices of petrol were last decreased by Rs 0.85/litre (excl VAT) and Rs1.02/litre (incl VAT) on April 3. In addition to losses on sale of petrol, OMCs are suffering under-recovery on sale of diesel of Rs. 6.48/litre, kerosene of Rs.30.49/litre and liquefied petroleum gas of Rs 433.00 per cylinder. (Source: Business Standard)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on April 15, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18358 5568 54.55 88.71 1361

0.63 0.72 0.06 -2.83 -9.35

-0.43 0.46 -0.11 -4.98 -13.45

-6.17 -5.85 0.74 -4.14 -14.51

7.39 6.93 5.82 -13.73 -17.99

.Source: Reuters

Potato prices in Bengal boil on demand

A steady demand from other States has pushed up potato prices in West Bengal by nearly Rs 200 a quintal in the last fortnight. With the current rise, potato prices in the State have inched up by over Rs 300 a quintal in the last one month. The demand for Bengal potatoes in Odisha, Bihar, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra is on the rise. usually around this time of the year farmers have a reasonable quantity of potatoes with them as stocks after storing the rest in cold storages. However, this year there is hardly any stock left with them. This is despite the State producing nearly 12 per cent more potatoes at 98 lakh tonnes (lt) this year. The 400-odd storage units in the State can hold up to 60 lt of potatoes. Close to 8-10 per cent of potatoes usually remain with farmers post loading into cold storages. However, this year, farmers are left with nearly 12-15 per cent of the stock due to an increased production. With the stock with farmers almost on the verge of depletion and with prices increasing to Rs 750 a quintal, it would now be time for cold storages to start unloading their stock. (Source: The Hindu Business Line)

India's inflation falls to 3-year low at 5.96%

India's wholesale price based inflation fell below six percent for the first time in more than three years as prices of manufactured and primary articles eased, government data showed Monday. Inflation based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) fell to 5.96 percent in March, the lowest level since November 2009. The headline inflation was recorded at 6.84 percent in the previous month and 7.69 percent during the corresponding month of last year, according to data released by the ministry of commerce and industry. Manufactured products inflation that has 64.97 weight in the WPI index eased to 4.07 percent in the last month of fiscal 2012-13 as compared to 5.16 percent recorded during the corresponding month of previous year. Primary articles based inflation eased to 7.6 percent in March 2013 as compared to 10.41 percent in the corresponding month of last year. Food inflation fell to 8.73 percent during the month under review as compared to 10.11 percent in the corresponding month of last year. Core inflation has also inched lower to 3.4 percent in March reflecting the decline in commodity prices on a year-on-year basis as well as weak pricing power. (Source: Indian
Express)

World pulses trade meet to look into demand-supply outlook

With nearly 1,000 delegates streaming in from over 50 countries to discuss latest developments in the world pulses sector and crystal-gaze into the future, the atmosphere here at the annual meet of International Pulses Trade and Industry Confederation (CICILS-IPTIC) is one of heightened expectation. Producers, processors, industrial consumers, traders and related others are keen to know from specialists what the market holds for them in 2013-14. India, the worlds largest producer, importer and consumer of a wide range of pulses, is obviously a focus of attention at such events, especially for exporting countries such as Canada, Australia, US and Myanmar. Indias pulses production in 2012-13 is an estimated 17.7 million tonnes (mt), up from last years 17.1 mt. Indias annual imports of pulses are estimated at about 30 lakh tonnes valued at over Rs 9,000 crore. For 2013-14, the Government has fixed a production target of 19 mt, with specific measures including crop diversification and mixed cropping. A steady increase in minimum support price in the last three years has provided some encouragement to growers. Market participants are also wondering as to when India will start exporting pulses in an unrestricted policy environment. South Asian countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are all importers of pulses. (Source: The hindu Business Line)

U.S. soybean crush edges up to 137.08 mln bu in March -NOPA

The U.S. soybean crush rose marginally to 137.08 million bushels in March, in line with forecasts for a slight gain from 136.3 million bushels in February, National Oilseed Processors Association data showed on Monday. Analysts had expected a monthly crush of 136.8 million bushels, according to a Reuters poll, down from 140.5 million bushels in March 2012 as processors lowed output due to dwindling supplies of old-crop soybeans and sagging margins. Soy oil stocks edged lower to 2.765 billion lbs, versus 2.79 billion lbs in February. Analysts had forecast stocks at 2.72 billion lbs. Stockpiles stood at 2.36 billion lbs a year earlier. (Source:
Reuters)

U.S. wheat ratings unchanged, corn planting pace at a 4-year low

U.S. winter wheat condition ratings were unchanged in the latest week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said, but matched an 11-year low as crops in the southern Plains struggled to overcome drought as well as freezing temperatures. The USDA also released its first estimate of U.S. corn planting for 2013. The agency put progress at 2 percent, a four-year low for mid-April that lagged the five-year average of 7 percent and the year-ago figure of 16 percent. The government said 36 percent of the U.S. winter wheat crop was rated in good to excellent condition by Sunday, the lowest mid-April rating since 2002, matching the figure for 2011. (Source: Reuters)

Pepper exports dive on production woes

Indian pepper has lost its glory in the world market as the major supplier of the spice following continued decline in production due to various factors. Vietnam has taken over the top slot in the world production and supply for about a decade now. Pepper production, which was at 64,000 tonnes from 2.16 lakh hectare in 2003 with an yield of 296.3 kg/hectare, has declined to 48,000 tonnes in 2011 from 1.84 lakh hectares and to 43,000 tonnes in 2012. Fall in Indian exports of pepper could be attributed to the strong domestic demand estimated at somewhere between 40,000 and 45,000 tonnes a year and the resultant comparatively high domestic prices making the commodity often noncompetitive in the world market, (Source: The Hindu Business Line)

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana May futures extended the gains of the previous week on account of concerns over the yield in Madhya Pradesh, the largest chana producing state, due to unfavorable weather conditions. Stockists are also been buying Chana at lower levels. Chana prices have recovered significantly in the past couple of weeks as stockiest have started building inventories to meet the demand for the entire season. However, higher supplies of the new crop from the major producing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra is seen capping sharp gains in the physical markets.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3625 3660 Prev day -0.05 0.77

as on April 15, 2013 % change WoW MoM 0.45 4.52 2.43 7.68 YoY -11.93 -9.72

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX May contract

Chana Sowing
Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. The Centre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chana and as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses to reduce import dependence. Chana sowing in the current season is 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. Acreage is up in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, MP and AP at 15.7 lakh ha, 12.53 lakh ha, 32.99 lakh ha and 7.33 lakh ha respectively.

Production
According to second advance Estimates released on 8 Feb 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down 3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses crop output was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, drought conditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been only partially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at 5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on the back of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9 mn tn. However, erratic weather in M.P. may lower the yield. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch).
th

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana May Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Apr 16, 2013 Resistance 3750-3800

3680-3635

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to 0.46 lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Outlook
Chana may continue with its upward trend during the intraday on account of yield concerns from MP coupled with buying by the stockists amid wedding season ahead. However, higher arrivals of the new crop may cap sharp upside.

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar prices in the domestic markets are seen consolidating at lower levels as higher supplies is seen offset the summer demand. The spot prices settled 0.9% higher while May Sugar futures settled 0.14% higher on Monday. The Government has cleared the partial decontrol of sugar. According to this, the government will now have to buy sugar from the mills at open market prices. Also the release mechanism will be done away with, after September 2013. States will decide on the FRP of cane. Indian sugar mills produced 23 million tonnes of the sweetener between Oct. 1 and March 31, about 2 percent less than a year earlier. The Central Government has decided to make available quantity of 104 lakh tons of sugar, as non-levy quota for open market sale, for the 6 months of April, 2013 to September, 2013.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3067

as on April 15, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.09 0.57 MoM -1.53 YoY 4.55

Rs/qtl

2926

0.31

1.56

-2.17

1.63

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMay'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE May '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 519.7 395.33

as on April 15, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.48 -1.33 2.63 0.40 MoM -2.82 -5.47 YoY -12.95 -22.72

Domestic Production and Exports

India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said last week. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30.8 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5 mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.

.Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX May contract

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that the sugar output in 2013-14 may fall to around 24 mn tn against current years output of 24.5 mn tn. A severe drought in top sugar producing Maharashtra state has been affecting new plantation and is likely to affect on sugar production in the year starting from Oct. 1, 2013.

Global Sugar Updates

Source: Telequote

Liffe Sugar as well as raw sugar Futures on ICE faced downward price pressure from bigger-than-expected supplies from Brazil, Thailand and India, However, sharp fall was cushioned due to late start to harvesting in top producer Brazil. Heavy rain in the cane belt of top world sugar producer Brazil has slowed early progress of an expected record cane harvest. Brazil's sugar production will jump to a record level in the 2013/14 season just now starting, with a surge in cane output from an expanded planted area, favorable weather and efforts to renew old and less productive cane plants. Expectations of abundant supplies from the 2013-14 harvest in the other leading producers, such as Thailand, Mexico and the United States have kept prices under pressure. Sugar prices are trading around 2 year lows.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar May NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Apr 16, 2013 Resistance 2975-2990

2940-2925

Outlook
Sugar may consolidate at lower levels in the coming week. Supplies will continue to remain high as millers will release stocks to clear cane arrears. This will offset summer season demand and recovery in the international markets.

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean futures declined sharply on account of weak
export demand for soy meal at higher levels. The spot as well as the May Futures settled 2.26% and 2.83% lower on Monday. Indian soy meal suppliers are renegotiating deals with Iranian buyers for April and May shipments as demand for Indian soy meal has slowed significantly due to the higher prices, and buyers are seeking alternative South American supplies. Indias soy meal exports in April are likely to fall to 200,000 tonnes, down 36 percent from a year ago, unless buying from Iran improves. Exports of Soybean meal during March, 2013 was 3,20,265 tonnes as compared to 4,61,892 tonnes in March, 2012 lower by 30.66% y-o-y. The annual soy meal exports in the financial year 2012-2013 (AprilMarch) were 34,33,916.546 tons, decreased by 12.28 percent.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 4023 3988 723 720.3 Prev day -2.26 -1.99 -0.21 -0.38

as on April 15, 2013

WoW -1.52 -3.06 -0.21 -0.01

MoM 11.72 9.85 5.32 4.98

YoY 9.80 8.25 -5.33 -6.19

Source: Reuters

as on April 15, 2013 International Prices Soybean- CBOTMay'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTMay'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1395 48.18 Prev day -1.27 -2.13 WoW 1.23 -2.71 MoM -4.27 -1.85 YoY -1.76 -13.44

International Markets
Soybean futures declined 1.27% on Monday on concerns over demand from china amid reports of bird-flu cases. Surge in soybean imports by China, the biggest buyer, may decline this year as feed consumption drops following a bird-flu outbreak. National Oilseed Processors Association data released yesterday showed the U.S. soybean crush rose marginally to 137.08 million bushels in March, in line with forecasts for a slight gain from 136.3 million bushels in February. Soy oil stocks edged lower to 2.765 billion lbs, versus 2.79 billion lbs in February. Brazil's government lowered its forecast for the 2012/13 soybean crop from 82.1mn tn to 81.9 mn tn.

Source: Reuters

Crude Palm Oil

as on April 15, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.22 -0.95 -2.95 -1.84

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Apr '13 Contract CPO-MCX- Apr '13 Futures

Last 2300 458.9

MoM -2.04 1.62

YoY -34.25 -26.34

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil as well as MCX CPO declined on
Monday on account of weak Malaysian palm oil futures coupled with weakness in the oilseed complex. Imports of all vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, fell 7.5 per cent to 896,714 tn in March, pulled down by the drop in palm oil imports. Palm oil imports dropped 12% to 708,262 tn in March. Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer, will set its crude palm oil export tax for May at 4.5 percent, unchanged from April. The Southeast Asian country calculated a reference price of 2,347.26 ringgit per tonne for crude palm oil for May. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products from April 1 to 15 inched down 4% to 648,275 tonnes from 675,210 tonnes shipped during March 1 to 15.

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 3546 3537 Prev day -1.08 -1.12 WoW -2.00 -1.48

as on April 15, 2013 MoM 4.15 3.85

Source: Reuters

YoY -11.59 -12.15

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX May contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard May Futures settled 1.08% lower

on account of profit booking. Increasing arrival pressure of new crop pressurized prices at higher levels. Reports of unseasonal rains in the north have supported prices. Sowing of Mustard seed is up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Outlook
Soybean prices may trade sideways with a negative bias as weak meal export demand coupled with bird flu in China and supplies from South American region are expected to pressurize prices. However, poor supplies in the domestic markets cushion sharp fall in the prices. Soy oil and CPO may trade sideways to lower on account of weak exports data coupled with comfortable stock levels.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil May NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX May Futures RM Seed NCDEX May Futures CPO MCX Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Apr 16, 2013 Support 693-698 3740-3785 3550-3565 454-456 Resistance 708-714 3870-3910 3600-3620 462-465

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities h
Black Pepper
Pepper Futures traded on a flat note last and settled marginally higher by 0.13% in the spot markets while on futures May contract settled marginally lower by 0.4%. Weak exports coupled with higher supplies from Karnataka pressurized prices. However, low stocks coupled with robust demand for the Kerala crop supported the prices at lower levels. Interstate traders, especially from Tamil Nadu are actively buying the Kerala crop. Karnataka crop is trading at lower levels due inferior quality. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. Some exports of Karnataka pepper from Mangalore port have been reported. However, exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is weak due to price parity. The Spot settled 0.63% while the May Futures settled 0.07% higher w-o-w. According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June 2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11, 2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date will be announced in due course. Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $6,900/tn (C&F, New York). Vietnams Asta is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn and Brazil Asta is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 36317 36395 % Change Prev day 0.13 0.79

as on April 15, 2013 WoW 0.24 2.09 MoM -1.08 0.28 YoY -4.81 -4.69

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX May contract

Exports and Imports

Indias Apr-Jan 2012-13 pepper exports were reported at 11,550 tn, down 48% (Source: Factiva) while imports reported at 15,000 tonnes making India a net importer. (Source: Agriwatch) According to the latest IPC reports, Vietnam exported around 39,000 st tonnes of pepper in the 1 quarter of 2013. Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 9% in 2012 period to 62,458 tn as compared to 68,489 tn in 2011. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov 2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012, lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX May Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Apr 16, 2013 Support 35400-35150 Resistance 35900-36100

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 18 tonnes while off takes were reported at 20 tonnes on Monday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at 316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.05 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in 2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in 2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Harvesting of pepper in some regions in Kerala is already complete.

Outlook
Pepper Futures is expected to trade on a mixed note this week. Good interstate demand for the Kerala pepper coupled with low supplies may support the prices. Lack of stocks for delivery due to lock up of pepper in the NCDEX accredited warehouses may also support prices. However, higher arrivals of the Karnataka crop may pressurize prices at higher levels.

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera futures which remained firm in the first half of the trading session on Monday declined sharply towards the end and settled 1.76% lower. Higher exports data coupled with fresh export enquiries as well as a pickup in the domestic demand had supported an upside in the prices last week. However, prices declined due to profit booking at higher levels. Higher arrivals of the new crop also pressurized prices at higher levels. Arrivals of the new crop are averaging around 35,00040,000 bags/ day. New crop from Rajasthan has also hit the markets. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region has increased output expectations. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.352 lakh ha in 2013 compared with 3.719 lakh ha last year. According to the Rajasthan State Budget 2013-14, it has exempted jeera from VAT. The spot as well as the May Futures settled 1.19% and 0.4% higher w-o-w. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,400 tn (FOB Mumbai) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 8-9 lakh bags.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 13750 13533 Prev day -0.27 -1.96

as on April 15, 2013 % Change WoW 0.65 -1.17 MoM 3.11 3.50 YoY 5.57 2.99

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX May contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 27,000 tn on Saturday. Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 38-40 lakh bags (55 kgs each), same as last year. Exports of Jeera between Apr 2012- Jan 2013 stood at 64,400 tn, an increase of up 86%. (Source: Factiva)

Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day 3.17 1.47

as on April 15, 2013 % Change

Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 7023 7024

WoW 7.19 4.59

MoM 10.39 7.01

YoY 115.92 91.91

Outlook
Jeera Futures may extend the losses of the previous session on Monday. However, good overseas as well as domestic demand may cushion sharp fall. Overall trend remain positive for the Jeera prices as they are likely to stay firm as Syria & Turkey have stopped shipments.

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures extended the gains of the previous session on account of good domestic as well as overseas demand. Lower output also supported prices at lower levels. Unseasonal rains in Andhra Pradesh have damaged about 9240 tonnes of turmeric. The Spot as well as the May Futures settled 6.44% and 5.16% higher w-o-w.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX May contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode were reported at 10,000 bags while Nizamabad was th closed on Friday due to local festival and will reopen on 15 April. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags. Production in Nizamabad is expected around 12 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. It is estimated that next years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric is expected to on a positive note today. Fresh export demand coupled with demand from stockists may support prices. Crop damage and lower output concerns may also help to push up the prices. However, weak exports data coupled with higher supplies of the fresh crop and huge carryover stocks may pressurize prices at higher levels.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX May Futures Turmeric NCDEX May Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Apr 16, 2013

Support 13400-13200 7100-7210 Resistance 13900-14050 7450-7580

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas settled 2.5% lower while MCX Cotton settled 1.8% lower on Monday. Mills are avoiding buying as they expected CCI to offload stocks. Weak global market sentiments have also added downside pressure. However, lower supplies in the domestic markets supported prices. Lower availability coupled with expectations of export demand from China in the coming days have also supported the prices at lower levels. The state-run Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has said that it would offload stocks in the open market to augment supplies. Cotton Corp of India has sought permission to export 1 mn bales. Lower supplies in the domestic markets and rising cotton prices have caused concerns for textile industry, which is demanding government to direct CCI and NAFED to offload the cotton stock to domestic mills. India's imports of cotton this year could reach 1.5 mn bales, missing earlier estimates of more than 2 mn as the govt may to start selling its stockpiles. Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October 2012 until February 10, 2013 were down at 183.4 lakh bales, down from 189.27 lakh bales a year earlier.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 898.5 18280

as on April 15, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -2.50 -2.34 -1.88 -2.97 MoM -7.85 -2.97 YoY -19.56 2.24

NCDEX Kapas Apr Futures MCX Cotton Mar Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit USc/Lbs Last 84.33 93.1

as on April 15, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -1.46 -0.37 0.98 1.03 MoM -3.44 -0.37 YoY -5.70 -4.32

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

The Cotton Association of India CAI has estimated the cotton crop for the season 2012-13 at 35.1 million bales as against 37.3 million bales in 2011- 12. However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports. After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.

Global Cotton Updates

ICE cotton futures posted their steepest daily loss in nearly a month on Monday, as weaker-than-expected economic data out of China, the world's top textile market, increased doubts about the global economy. According to China Cotton Association, China will continue with its stockpiling policy this year which will boost imports. Exports were higher compared to previous week but lower compared to four week average. According to the USDA report, planting intentions for the 2013-14 season are said to be at a 4 year low. Also, there are expectations of good export demand from China. Reports of India and China releasing stocks from the state reserve led to a decline in the prices. China, the worlds largest consumer, is expected to sell about 3 mn tn of cotton this year from state reserves of around 10 mn tn. USDA has initially forecasted US Cotton acreage for 2013-14 season, at smallest in 20 yrs, however, with recent surge in prices, farmers may decide to plant more cotton. The planting intention data is schedule to be released on 28th march 2013.
Source: Telequote Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX April contract

Outlook
We expect Cotton prices to trade sideways with downward bias during the intraday. Weak global market sentiments coupled with lack of buying by mills may pressurize prices. However, lower supplies from farmers may support prices at lower levels. China will continue its stockpiling policy, may also support prices. US cotton planting intentions were reported at a 4 year low which may support prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Futures Cotton MCX April Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Apr 16, 2013 Support 870-882 18310-18470 Resistance 915-934 18760-18920

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