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Volume 9, Issue 4 April 2013

Global Warming Update

In his State of the Union address, President Obama urged Congress to act on climate change, saying that if Congress wont act soon to protect future generations, I will. Solid majorities of Americans believe climate change is real, and 54 percent say its effects have already begun. But 64 percent do not believe it will pose a serious threat to them in their lifetimes. That may be one reason the issue ranks dead last as a top priority in Pews 2013 list of twenty-one possible priorities for the President and Congress.
Q: From what youve read and heard, is . . . ? There is solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades There is not
Source: Pew Research Center, March 2013.

69% 27

Q: Id like to ask you about priorities for President Obama and Congress this year. As I read from a list, tell me if you think each should be a top priority, important but lower priority, not too important or should it not be done. Top priority for President Obama and Congress Strengthening the economy Improving the job situation Reducing the budget deficit Defending against terrorism Making Social Security sound Improving education Making Medicare sound Reducing health costs Helping the poor and needy Reducing crime Reforming the tax system Protecting the environment 86% 79 72 71 70 70 65 63 57 55 52 52 45 44 41 40 39 37 31 30 28

Q: Which of the following statements reflects your view of when the effects of global warming will begin to happen . . . ? The effects of global warming have already begun Will start happening in the future Will never happen 54% 27 15

Note: The category in the future includes people who say the effects will start happening within a few years, within their lifetimes, and will not happen within their lifetimes but will affect future generations. Source: Gallup, March 2013.

Q: Do you think . . . ? Global warming will pose a serious threat to you and your way of life in your lifetime Will not
Source: Gallup, March 2013.

34% 64

Dealing with the energy problem Reducing influence of lobbyists Strengthening the military Dealing with moral breakdown Dealing with illegal immigration

Q: In your view, is global warming a . . . ? Global warming is a very serious problem Somewhat serious Not too serious Not a problem
Source: Pew Research Center, March 2013.

33% 32 13 20

Strengthening gun laws Dealing with global trade Improving infrastructure Dealing with global warming
Source: Pew Research Center, January 2013.

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Energy: Diversify and Drill

Americans want to emphasize developing alternative sources of energy over expanding production of traditional sources. Natural gas is an exception. In a recent Gallup poll, 65 percent said more emphasis should be placed on producing energy from natural gas. Americans continue to favor the building Keystone XL pipeline and expanding offshore drilling. In Pews latest polling, 48 percent favored the use of fracking technology, and 38 percent were opposed.
Q: Which one of the following do you think should be the more important priority for addressing Americas energy supply . . . ? Feb. 2013 Developing alternative sources, such as wind, solar, and hydrogen technology Expanding exploration and production of oil, coal and natural gas
Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of February 2013.

Mar. 2011 54% 34 63% 29

Q: Do you think that as a country, the United States should put more emphasis, less emphasis, or about the same emphasis as it does now on producing domestic energy from each of the following sources? Producing domestic sources of energy More emphasis Solar power 76% Wind 71 Natural gas 65 Oil 46 Nuclear power 37 Coal 31
Source: Gallup, March 2013.

Q: Do you . . . ? Favor building the Keystone XL pipeline that would transport oil from Canadas oil sands region through the Midwest to refineries in Texas Oppose

Less emphasis 10% 12 10 32 32 41

Same emphasis 12% 16 24 21 28 25

66% 23

Note: Majorities of Republicans (82 percent), Democrats (54 percent), and independents (70 percent) favor building the pipeline. Source: Pew Research Center, March 2013.

Q: How much do you support or oppose the following policies? Strongly support expanding offshore drilling for oil and natural gas off the US coast Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose
Source: Yale/George Mason, August 2012.

Q: Do you . . . ? Favor increased use of fracking, a drilling method that uses high-pressure water and chemicals to extract oil and natural gas from underground rock formations Oppose

20% 38 23 14

48% 38

Note: Responses varied strongly by region. Forty-three percent in the West, 52 percent in the South, 55 percent in the Midwest, and 37 percent in the Northeast were in favor of using fracking technology. Source: Pew Research Center, March 2013.

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The Sequester To Date

In the past few years, concern about the deficit has been rising. Still, most Americans didnt appear to pay close attention to the sequester debate. In other questions asked during the debate, people worried about the effect of the cuts on the nation and on them personally. What has happened since then? In an early April Gallup poll, 49 percent said they didnt know enough about the sequester to say whether its effect on the economy would be positive or negative, and 57 percent felt that way about its effect on their personal financial situation. In a Marist/McClatchy poll shown below, the number who say the automatic cuts have had no effect on the economy has risen since late February as has the number saying they have had no effect on them.
Q: How much, if anything, have you heard about the major cuts in defense and domestic spending that will automatically happen on March 1 unless the president and Congress reach an agreement on deficit reduction. Have you heard . . . ? Feb. 1518 Have heard a lot about major cuts that will automatically happen on March 1 A little Nothing at all
Source: Pew Research Center/USA Today, February 1518, 2013.

27% 43 29

Q: As you may know, automatic spending cuts to military and domestic programs were scheduled to go into effect on March 1 because President Obama and Republicans in Congress could not agree on a plan to reduce the federal budget deficit. These automatic spending cuts are commonly referred to as the sequester. How closely have you been following . . . ? Mar. 13 Have followed news very closely about automatic spending cuts Somewhat closely Not too closely
Source: CBS News, March 13, 2013.

28% 43 28

Q: Eighty-five billion dollars in automatic across-theboard spending cuts to the federal budget took effect on March 1st. Do you think these spending cuts have . . . ? February responses Spending cuts have had a positive effect on the economy Negative No effect at all March responses

Q: What about for you and your family: Since these automatic across-the-board spending cuts took effect, do you think they have . . . ? February responses Spending cuts have had a positive effect on you and your family Negative effect No effect at all March responses

19% 47 27

14% 36 40

10% 36 48

6% 26 65

Source: Marist/McClatchy, latest that of late March 2013.

Source: Marist/McClatchy, latest that of late March 2013.

In a new early April CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, 29 percent said the forced spending cuts had affected the nations economy a great deal, 39 percent some, 20 percent not much, and 9 percent not at all. Sixteen percent said they had affected their personal financial situation a great deal, 26 percent some, 22 percent not much, and 35 percent not at all. In an early April NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 9 percent said the across the board automatic federal spending cuts to military and non-military programs had had a great deal of impact on their family, 7 percent quite a bit, 17 percent just some, and 58 percent not much at all. In another question, 16 percent said these cuts would mostly help the economy, 47 percent mostly harm it, and 30 percent have no impact.

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The Tax Man Cometh

The graph below shows a significant change over the past forty years in views about whether the federal income tax people pay is too high, too low, or about right. Today, people are divided about whether it is too high or about right. Only two percent think it is too low. The economy is still the top problem for the nation, with taxes far behind. Reforming the income tax system does not rank high in Pews question about priorities for the President and Congress.
Q: Do you consider the amount of federal income tax you have to pay as . . . ?
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Federal income tax you pay is too high

50% 45%

About right

Too low

2%

Source: Gallup, National Opinion Research Center, CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, Hotline/Diageo, latest that of April 2013.

Importance of Taxes
Q: What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? Economy in general Dissatisfaction with government Unemployment/jobs Federal budget deficit Health care Immigration/Illegal aliens Lack of money Education Guns/Gun control Ethics/Moral/Religious decline Taxes 24% 20 16 13 7 5 4 4 4 4 2

Note: Only categories above 2 percent are shown. Source: Gallup, March 2013.

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Mar-47 Mar-49 Mar-51 Mar-53 Mar-55 Mar-57 Mar-59 Mar-61 Mar-63 Mar-65 Mar-67 Mar-69 Mar-71 Mar-73 Mar-75 Mar-77 Mar-79 Mar-81 Mar-83 Mar-85 Mar-87 Mar-89 Mar-91 Mar-93 Mar-95 Mar-97 Mar-99 Mar-01 Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13

Where Reforming the Tax System Ranks

Q: Id like to ask you about priorities for President Obama and Congress this year. As I read from a list, tell me if you think each should be a top priority, important but lower priority, not to important or should it not be done. Should be a top priority for the president and Congress Strengthening the economy Reforming the income tax system Dealing with global warming 85% 52 30 Rank (Top priority) (12th of 21) (Lowest priority)

Source: Pew Research Center, January 2013.

(continued on the next page)

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(Taxes, continued from the previous page)

Personal Assessments on Taxes

More than two-thirds of Americans say taxes are hurting their finances, and six-in-ten registered voters say their familys paycheck is smaller this year because more taxes are being taken out. Two-thirds say taxes will go up on the middle class this year, and in another question, 34 percent believe the amount they pay will get worse while only 10 percent think it will get better. These responses may explain why the President gets lower marks on handling taxes than on handling his job. Hes trusted more on the issue than are the Republicans in Congress.
Q: Now I am going to read you some possible situations that could affect your familys finances. For each one, please say whether that situation is . . . Hurting your finances a lot or a little The price of energy, including gas The price of food Taxes Health care costs The federal debt ceiling 79% 76 69 68 56 Q: Is your familys paycheck . . . ? Smaller this year because more taxes are being taken out Not smaller
Note: Sample is registered voters. Source: Fox News, February 2013.

61% 26

Note: Top five responses shown. In a separate Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index survey, 80 percent of small business owners said taxes were hurting a lot or a little. Source: Gallup, January 2013.

Q: Im going to mention some aspects of your personal situation. For each, please tell me if you expect things to be better in 2013, worse, or about the same as in 2012 . . . ? The amount you pay in taxes will . . . Get better in 2013 About the same Worse
Source: Bloomberg, February 2013.

Q: Do you think . . . ? Taxes will go up on middle class Americans this year Will not
Note: Sample is registered voters. Source: Fox News, February 2013.

68% 25

10% 46 34

Q: Do you . . . ? Fox News February Approve Barack Obamas handling of taxes Handling his job 41% 49% Disapprove 54% 45% CBS March Approve 42% 45% Disapprove 49% 46% CNN/ORC April Approve 46% 51% Disapprove 52% 47%

Note: Question wording varied slightly. Fox News sample is registered voters. Source: Fox News, February 2013; CBS, March 2013; CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, April 2013.

Q: Who do you . . . ? Trust President Obama more to make the right decisions on taxes Trust the Republicans in Congress more
Source: CBS/New York Times, January 2013.

52% 36
(continued on the next page)

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(Taxes, continued from the previous page)

Has the GOP has Lost Its Edge on Taxes?

In the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, the Democrats have a slight edge over the Republicans as the party preferred on taxes. This could be a commentary on general GOP weakness or on GOP tax policies. On Election Day, however, people who told the exit pollsters that taxes was the biggest economic problem facing them voted solidly for Romney.
Q: Let me read you some specific issues. When it comes to dealing with taxes, which party do you think would do a better job . . . ?
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Republican Party would do a better job handling taxes 35% 32% Democratic Party

Both/Same

13%

May-93

Jul-94

May-00

Jul-01

May-07

Nov-89

Jan-91

Mar-92

Sep-95

Nov-96

Jan-98

Mar-99

Sep-02

Nov-03

Jan-05

Mar-06

Jul-08

Sep-09

Nov-10

Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of February 2013.

Q: Which one of these four is . . . ? Biggest economic problem facing people like you Unemployment Rising prices Taxes Housing market 38% 37 14 8 -Voted for Obama Romney 54% 44% 49 49 32 66 63 32

Source: National Election Pool exit poll, 2012.

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Michael Barone, Resident Fellow; Henry Olsen, Vice President. Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew Rugg, Editor. Intern: John Benjamin.

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Jan-12

The North Korean Threat

Americans have long recognized the Korean peninsula as a dangerous place. In the 2012 Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey, 60 percent of those surveyed said the US should have long-term military bases in South Korea. The Council asked this question about eight countries, and more people thought keeping long-term bases there was more important than felt that way about bases in the other countries. At the same time, however, in answers to a hypothetical question, 56 percent were opposed to the use of US troops if North Korea invaded South Korea and 41 percent were in favor. In recent surveys, the public views the current North Korean threats as more serious and real, with Americans more willing to commit troops should they be needed.
Q: Do you think the United States should or should not have long-term military bases in the following places . . . ? US should have long-term military bases in South Korea Should not 60% 37 Q: Thinking about North Korea, how seriously . . . ? US government should take North Koreas threats to use nuclear force very seriously Somewhat seriously Not too seriously Not at all seriously
Source: Pew Research Center, April 2013.

Note: Internet survey. Source: Chicago Council on Global Affairs, MayJune 2012.

56% 27 9 5

Q: From what youve read and heard, do you think . . . ? North Koreas leadership is really willing to follow through on its threat to use nuclear weapons against the US Is not
Source: Pew Research Center, April 2013.

Q: Do you think . . . ? The situation involving North Korea can be successfully resolved using only economic and diplomatic efforts Cannot

47% 41

46% 51

Note: When CNN first asked the question in October 2006, 60 percent said the situation could be resolved using economic and diplomatic efforts. Thirty-five percent said it could not. Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, April 2013.

Q: There has been some discussion about the circumstances that might justify using US troops in other parts of the world. Please give your opinion about some situations. Would you favor or oppose the use of US troops . . . ? MayJune 2012 Favor use of US troops if North Korea invades South Korea Oppose
Note: Internet survey. Source: Chicago Council on Global Affairs, MayJune 2012.

41% 56

Q: If South Korea were attacked by North Korea, do you think . . . ? April 2013 The US should use military troops to help defend South Korea Should not 61% 36

Note: In an identical question asked by CNN/USA Today/Gallup in 1994, 45 percent favored using US troops in this situation and 46 percent were opposed. When CNN and ORC asked the question in 2010, 57 percent supported using US troops and 40 percent were opposed. Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, April 2013.

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