Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Malaysia
Sector Update
21 February 2012
Overweight (unchanged)
Company
3,000
Latin America
2,000 1,000
0 1980
Source: IGC
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2035
100
200
300
400
500
600 (bcm)
21 February 2012
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Pipelines (LHS)
LNG (LHS)
(%)
1200
50
900
40
600
30
300
20
0 2000
Source: IGU
21 February 2012
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1.92
1.95
1.98
1.91
80.5
79.7
80 79
78 77
1.7
78.0
1.6
1.5 1.4
1.66
76 75
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Consumption. 2,066 mmscfd of gas (38% of production) was injected into Petronas Gas PGU system in 2011, of which 672 mmscfd of the gas flow was delivered from the Malaysia-Thailand Joint Development Area {JDA} (373mmscfd), West Natuna (211mmscfd) and PM3 CAA (88mmscfd) fields. Of the total injected into the PGU, the power sector (TNB and IPPs) consumed 1,054 mmscfd of gas 124 mmscfd of gas was exported to Singapore 888 mmscfd of gas was allocated to the non-power industry Gas Malaysias portion totaled 346 mmscfd PETRONAS clients and its internal consumption took up the remaining 542 mmscfd
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Oil & Gas Natural gas supply chain in Peninsular Malaysia (in mmscfd)
Offshore Peninsular
2 ,023 T NB TN B 3 6 9 (35%)
Power s ector
1 ,054 (51%)
IPPs IP Ps
6 8 5 (65%)
Export to Singapore
1 2 4 (6%)
Wes t N atuna
211
2 ,066
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5.1
4.7
4.3
3.9
1.5
2023
2024
2025
(i)
LNG imports should address gas shortage concerns. The import of LNG is touted as the long-term solution to feeding Malaysias growing gas demand. The first LNG imports amounting to 3.8m tpa will be injected into the system by Jul 2012, and up to 7.6m tpa of LNG will flow into the PGU by 2017.
Peninsular Malaysias average gas production & total curtailment days
(mmscfd) 2,500 2,193 2,000 1,500 1,000
(days) 35 30
1,923 2,005 1,936 1,908 1,946 1,892 1,899 1,929 1,979 1,953 1,846 1,785 1,807
25 20 15
10
500
0 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11
5 0
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0.3
7.1 6.3
1.4 4.7
0.2 4.0
3.4
0.4 3.3
0.3 3.9
0.1 4.9
Gas
6.2
Coal
5.9
Hydro
5.8
Interconnection
1.9 7.5 6.5 7.5 6.4 10.5 6.9
8.1 4.5
8.1 5.4
6.4 6.0
43.2
44.6
40.3
38.0
42.4
41.7 49.8
48.2
40.5
60
50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11
41.1
44.9
43.5
44.1
46.4
44.6
45.3
60.3
52.1
50.7
50.5
54.2
57.6
51.1
54.7
55.8
52.0
52.5
42.3
44.9
47.6
44.9
41.1
37.9
37.0
42.1
42.2
43.3
40.1
42.5
41.1
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Malaysia is committed to 7.6m tpa of additional LNG by 2017. 7.6m tpa of LNG equates to 1,011 mmscfd of natural gas, or 40% of the gas supply injected into the PGU system in 2010. This should offset the fall in domestic fields gas up to 2017 while maintaining Malaysias gas supply level at 5,977 mmscfd. LNG supply commitment is already underway. We understand that PETRONAS is already working towards ensuring availability of LNG supply from various suppliers (i.e. Australia, Europe and Middle East), both on short and long-term contracts.
PETRONAS LNG import commitments Seller (Country) Scheduled delivery date
GDF Suez (France) Qatargas(Qatar) Gladstone LNG (Australia) Total Sources: Various, Maybank-IB Aug 2012 2013 2014
Duration (year)
2.5 20 20
Quantity (m tpa)
2.5 1.5 3.5 7.5
Malaysia is set to embrace third-party gas importation by Jul 2012. The first LNG import will be injected into the system by Jul 2012. In order to receive LNG that is required to be subsequently regassed for transmission through the PGU system, a regasification plant and receiving terminal (i.e. floating storage units, subsea and onshore pipelines) is required. First regas project being built in Melaka with a 3.8m tpa capacity. Construction of the regas facilities aka Project Lekas, developed by Petronas Gas at Sungai Udang, Melaka is in progress. Based on the LNG delivery schedule, Melakas regas plant should hit its maximum capacity in 2012. South Johor has been identified to be the second regas base. We reckon the planned regas plant, which will be larger in size than the one in Melaka, will support PETRONAS USD20b Refinery and Petrochemical Industrial Development (RAPID) and the Iskandar Development Region (IDR) programmes.
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A third regas terminal in Tawau? This would support a gas-fired power plant there. In terms of size, we reckon the regas terminal would be the smallest when compared against the Melaka and Johor facilities.
Planned regas terminals capacity
Vietnam
3.0 5.0
Thailand
Phillippines
5.3
6.0 7.6 10.5
Singapore
Malaysia Indonesia
0.0
Source: Petronas
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
(ii)
Malaysia to get additional gas from new fields by 2013. Notwithstanding the regas programmes and new plants in Melaka, Johor and Sabah which involve LNG imports, PETRONAS and its Production Sharing Contract (PSC) partners will spend about RM15b to develop a cluster of gas fields offshore Peninsular Malaysia. Gas projects will be on an accelerated basis. PETRONAS expects the first delivery of 100 mmscfd of gas by early 2013, and 250 mmscfd by 2015 (3-9% of domestic consumption), from these new fields.
Malaysias gas production forecast (2010-25) mmscfd
(mmscfd)
7.0
6.0 5.0 5.9 5.9 6.1 6.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 6.2 0.1 0.5
6.1
0.3 0.5
3.3
3.0
2.8
0.3
1.0
1.0
0.3
0.3 1.0 1.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 1.0 2.9 0.3 1.0 1.7 2024F
4.0
5.9 3.0 2.0 1.0 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 5.9 5.8
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.1
4.7
4.3
0.3
3.9
3.5
1.0
1.5 2025F
2.0
2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F
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Source: PETRONAS
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South East Asia end-user gas price Country Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Singapore Power 3.38 4.57 5.67 7.71 17.99 Industry (USD/ mmBtu) 8.31 6.12 6.50 13.24 18.46 4.93 1.55 0.83 5.53 0.47 Spread
41.05
30.35
30 23.88 20 11.32 10 9.40 14.31 17.99 15.35 11.05 18.35 14.05 24.35 21.35 17.05 20.05 27.35 23.05 26.05
37.70
29.05
Sources: Various
21 February 2012
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APPENDIX 1
Definition of Ratings
Maybank Investment Bank Research uses the following rating system: BUY HOLD SELL Total return is expected to be above 15% in the next 12 months Total return is expected to be between -15% to 15% in the next 12 months Total return is expected to be below -15% in the next 12 months
Applicability of Ratings
The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.
Disclaimer
This report is for information purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each securitys price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis.Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been indepe ndently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, no liability can be accepted for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, its affiliates and related companies and their officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice. This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but no t always identified by the use of words such as anticipate, believe, estimate, intend, plan, expect, forecast, predict and project and statements that an event or result may, will, can, should, could or might occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forwardlooking statements. Maybank Investment Bank Berhad expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. This report is prepared for the use of Maybank Investment Bank Berhad's clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written cons ent of Maybank Investment Bank Berhad and Maybank Investment Bank Berhad accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
21 February 2012
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APPENDIX 1
Additional Disclaimer (for purpose of distribution in Singapore)
This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein maybe subject to change. Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd ("KERPL") in Singapore has no obligation to update such information for any recipient. Recipients of this report are to contact KERPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. If the recipient of this report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act), KERPL sh all be legally liable for the contents of this report, with such liability being limited to the extent (if any) as permitted by law. As of 21 February 2012, KERPL does not have an interest in the said company/companies.
Published / Printed by
Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) (A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad) 33rd Floor, Menara Maybank, 100 Jalan Tun Perak, 50050 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2059 1888; Fax: (603) 2078 4194 Stockbroking Business: Level 8, Tower C, Dataran Maybank, No.1, Jalan Maarof 59000 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2297 8888; Fax: (603) 2282 5136 http://www.maybank-ib.com
21 February 2012
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