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An Unsolicited Proposal
Agenda
• About this briefing
• Current Situation
• Proposal
• Recent USAF Market Survey
• Airpower and COIN historical examples
• Why a new COIN aircraft (a/c)?
• Potential alternative solutions
• T-6 Texas II and AT-6C descriptions
• Scenarios
• Situational realities and cost comparisons
• Proposed way ahead and conclusion
• Backups
Primary author is Ed “Otto” Pernotto,
EXCALIBUR founder and USAFR LtCol. His
experience inc. multiple a/c, special operations,
working with Royal Thai and Malaysian Air
Forces, service in Iraq, and CONOPS writing
About This Briefing
• Provide a rapidly executable option to increase US
and coalition counter-insurgency (COIN) capabilities
• This brief is unclassified, unsolicited, and unpaid
• This was developed via a collaborative internet
process using open source information
– Engage American citizenry in national security
– Help develop EXCALIBUR R&D process and build a
network of motivated and engaged Americans
EXCALIBUR R&D:
innovatively and collaboratively
supporting national security
Current Situation
• US forces engaged in multiple COIN efforts:
– Major COIN operations in Iraq and Afghanistan
– Smaller scale efforts in other regions: Philippines (PI), Horn of Africa (HOA),
other parts of Africa, and around the world
– Most agree best result is for US to increase partner nation capacity
• These COIN efforts and others that may emerge are likely to go on for
many years, possibly decades
• Battlefield is becoming saturated with unmanned systems drowning out
radio frequencies; manned intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance
(ISR) still has value, especially with host nation crewmember onboard
• US has no current aircraft specifically optimized for COIN, but does have
an increasingly more capable personnel effort with AF Special Operations
Command (AFSOC) 6th Special Operations Squadron (SOS)
• Other nations less likely to acquire weaponry unless US takes lead effort
T-6A AT-6C
Recent USAF “Market Survey”
• USAF requested info for a Commercial-Off-The Shelf
(COTS) aircraft for the Iraqi AF (IqAF)
• 1st a/c delivered NLT 1 Nov 08, potential of 8 total a/c
• The COIN a/c must be/have:
– Lightly armored, 2-seat turbo-prop aircraft
– A suite of Electro-Optical/Infrared (EO/IR) sensors and laser-
guided/unguided air-to-ground weapons/missiles
– Share data and imagery with other COIN aircraft
– Incorporate an IR threat detection and countermeasure system
– Perform dual role as an advanced fixed-wing flight trainer aircraft
• Current IqAF inc. UH-1H, MI-17 helos; C-130, King Air
transports; small ISR aircraft
COIN Aircraft History: Algeria
• Conflict background
• Aircraft (Types, numbers)
• Operations
• Discussion/Evaluation
COIN Aircraft History: Vietnam Early
• Conflict background
• Aircraft (Types, numbers)
• Operations
• Discussion/Evaluation
COIN Aircraft History: Vietnam Mid to Late
• Conflict background
• Aircraft (Types, numbers)
• Operations
• Discussion/Evaluation
COIN Aircraft History: South America
• Conflict background
• Aircraft (Types, numbers)
• Operations
• Discussion/Evaluation
Why a New Fixed Wing COIN A/C?
• Current a/c (F-15E/F-16/F-18) fly too fast for effective COIN
– Threat does not warrant high end fighter a/c, puts wear and tear on
airframes, most missions don’t drop ordnance
– Frequent mission is “non-traditional ISR”
– But troops in contact or emerging Intel might require striking target
• Foreign observers/pilots not carried
– US pilots cannot (normally) speak host nation language/dialects
– Perception that US is striking targets with no host nation involvement
• Most fighters cannot “offboard sensors”
– Huge value in getting ISR feed to ground tactical elements and other
nodes
– Unmanned ISR/Strike great, but airspace/ frequencies saturated
• With skyrocketing fuel costs and missions where weapons are
rarely expended, cost must become a factor
Potential Alternative Solutions
• P-51, T-28, A-1:
– Small #’s exist, mostly airshow and museum a/c,
– few spares, no production lines exist A-1
T-28
P-51
• OV-1, OV-10, A-37:
– far too few A/C available, most in foreign or other government
service, few spares, no production lines
A-37
– New production OV-10D would be excellent
but time and cost prohibitive OV-10
OV-1
• Scenario:
– Coalition force list: Military Training Team (MTT’s) with most Iraqi units,
3 X Brigade Combat Teams as Quick Reaction Force (+ enabling forces),
2 X CJSOTF
– Threat: Continued low level insurgency, attacks against Iraq governance and
military
– ROE: Iraq requires Iraqi “in the loop” prior to kinetic strikes
• Standard mission:
– 3 X AT-6C 2-ships fly COIN air patrols in pre-designated orbits for on call
support, time and location vary but intel based
– Additional 2-ships on 10 minute strip alert
• Situation:
– MTT w/ Iraqi infantry ambushed by snipers/RPG’s in urban area
– MTT requests AT-6C strike, pass coordinates for JDAM attack, Iraqi AT-6C
observer confirms Tgt location with gnd force, strike
– AT-6C stays till fuel critical, pass mission to alert launched AT-6C formation
• Advantage over today:
– Smaller logistics/personnel footprint, much more fuel economical, onboard
Iraqi Observer allows Iraqi in the loop
Iraq Scenario 2: 2012 Infrastructure/Border Protection
• Scenario:
– Coalition force list: Military Training Team (MTT’s) with select Iraqi units, 2 X
Battalion Combat Teams (w/enabling forces), 1 X CJSOTF
– Threat: residual insurgency, soft Tgt attacks against pipelines, remote
infrastructure, continued border infiltration
– ROE: Primary mission ISR w/secondary mission strike; Iraq requires Iraqi “in
the loop” prior to kinetic strikes, kinetic strikes must use smaller munitions
• Standard mission:
– Single ship AT-6C fly infrastructure and border patrol missions over
predestinated areas, aircrews become very familiar with patrolled areas
– Additional aircraft 30 minute strip alert
• Situation:
– AT-6C crew flies over designated areas to look for unusual
patterns/circumstances
– Use sensors to ID potential threat truck approaching pipeline, send imagery
to ground based Iraqi police, police response force launched, AT-6C
maintains “eyes on”
– Vehicle flees, police request interdiction, AT-6C strafes in front of vehicle,
vehicle stops
• Advantage over today:
– Smaller logistics/personnel footprint, much more fuel economical, onboard
Iraqi Observer allows Iraqi in the loop, onboard human eyes provide greater
clarity of observation of area over UAV operator
Current Philippines COIN Scenario
• Scenario:
– Philippines light infantry company sized units based in previously denied areas,
conducting civic assistance missions, advised by US Special Forces (SF)
ODA’s with small CJSOTF advising at higher PI higher Hq
– Threat: Continued low level insurgency, attacks against populace and govt
facilities
– ROE: PI requires higher Hq permission with PI pilot/observer releasing
weapons
• Standard mission:
– Single AT-6C fly unit overwatch of jungle patrols, fly overwater looking at boats
– Additional 2-ships on 10 minute strip alert
• Potential response:
– Patrol flushes terrorist cell, ground unit determines fleeing enemy only a few
hours away, begin pursuit
– AT-6C flies ahead of patrol to search for ambush, ID terrorists in fleeing boats
– AT-6C sends images back to higher Hq. and pass imagery to PI Navy forces to
interdict, if boats attempt to leave PI territorial waters, strafe to knockout motor
• Advantage over today:
– PI requires small footprint, current US strike/ISR platforms manpower intensive,
– Current PI AF a/c fairly old, lack ability to offboard sensors from strike a/c to
units
Realities For Fielding a New Weapons System
• Personnel costs among most expensive
– USAF currently cutting ~40K personnel, no appetite to increase
force structure
– Mitigate by using current units, mothball F-16’s, reequip with AT-6C
– Minimal workup: pilots qualified in flying, weapons delivery, tactics
• T-6A “Texan II” currently operated by USAF/USN
– Tech manuals, logistics, pilot/maintenance procedures exist
– Training squadrons exist to rapidly stand up AT-6C cadre
• T-6 in production in US
– Production line/spares available
– Pre-engineering work for armed version accomplished