Climate Science, Impacts, Risk Management, and What We Can Do

NYU Seminar Talk March 2013

Jan W. Dash, PhD

Climate Initiative Chair, Unitarian Universalist UN Office Climate Science Rapid Response Team Matchmaker
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Outline Overview of Climate

Climate Climate

Science Most relevant fact = Impacts: Many, almost all bad

Recent Global Warming is due to us Example Sea Level Rise So What?

Risk

Management & What can we do? Ethics: Why should we do anything? The Pseudoscience Deniers
What do they say? Who supports them?
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Science Fact: Recent Global warming exists, due to humans. Natural variation out (El Nios/La Nias, volcanoes, sun): Average temperature going UP

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Global Warming / Climate Impacts

Many

impacts practically all bad We see impacts now, only faint rumbling of future impacts if we do not act
Less FOOD crops die at high temperatures Less WATER glaciers, snow packs melting More DISEASE insect vectors moving north More WARS over food, water
Other

examples: Sea level rise SLR, Ocean acidification, Extreme weather (Sandy)
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U. S. Navy is concerned
Sea

Level Rise Scenario: 3 - 6 feet by 2100

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NOAA data, projections to 2100

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SLR and Global Warming

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So What? Vulnerable US (NOAA) East Coast hot spot for SLR

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Migration, war, national security

Millions

worldwide now living in coastal regions will be displaced by rising seas Where will they go? More wars will result

Pentagon

US National Security issue

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Quadrennial Defense Review 2010

Small Island Nations Threatened

(IPCC Extreme Climate report 2011). Following Talk this seminar

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Ocean Acidification, Higher Temperatures, and the Food Chain

Ocean

absorbs CO2 => carbonic acid Ocean acidification hurts food chain
Algae, shellfish, coral reefs => fewer FISH
Higher

sea temperature hurts food chain

Phytoplankton decrease => fewer FISH

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What about SANDY in NJ/NY?

Global

warming puts more energy into the weather system for extreme events Specifics making Sandy worse
Sea level rise. Higher sea temperature. Also:
Arctic T Details

up more jet stream instability

Maybe some influence on Sandy turning left

complicated, and exact attribution not possible, but probably global warming made Sandy worse.
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Sandy, Jet Stream, Global Warming

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Climate Risk Management

Recognition

of risks: 2 types

Average risk: probable, low impact Tail risk: less probable, high impact
Rational

response to risk - lower it! The best way to think about the response to climate is RISK MANAGEMENT
Stop BAU = Business As Usual If BAU, today s tail climate risk becomes tomorrow s average climate risk
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What Can We Do: Climate Mitigation no silver bullet. Progress, need MORE
Action

by individuals Action by organizations

Corporations, Universities, Faith-based, NGOs
Action Action

at all levels of government

City, State, Regional, National, International

to support non-fossil energy Mitigation Volume IPCC = 1,000 pages Please note: Citizens Climate Lobby
Carbon Tax + Dividend back to people
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Climate Ethics
Climate

justice: Poor have the smallest effect on climate are hurt the worst
U.S. will be hit very hard if BAU prevails More humane and cheaper for preventive action now rather than disaster adaptive action by our descendants in the future

However, no

place to hide

Intergenerational

ethics: Our descendants

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Climate Science Deniers / Contrarians / Faux Skeptics

We Have No Climate Risk 4 trenches:

1. 2. 3. 4. Deny global warming Deny human influence on climate Minimize climate impact risk Exaggerate cost of climate action mitigation

Oppose

climate action, renewable energy Create doubt = tobacco tactic (Oreskes)

Science cant prove so we shouldnt act Cherry pick, propose flimsy arguments
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Contrarian/Denier Pseudoscience Disinformation Ex: Arctic ice loss

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North Carolina and Cnut the Great (Reuters) - Lawmakers in North Carolina voted to ignore studies predicting a rapid rise in sea level due to climate change and postpone planning for the consequences. Cnut the Great ordered the sea not to rise 1000 years ago

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Who Supports Contrarian Deniers?

Fossil

Fuel Co. FFC Exxon Mobile, Koch

FFCs want to be able to burn every available carbon molecule (gas/oil/coal) in the ground Otherwise STRANDED ASSETS Would reduce FFC $wealth, $stock price
Libertarians: Tea

Party, Koch, Faux News...

Basically oppose government action But governments must act to mitigate climate So libertarians try to kill the message
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Here are some resources

IPCC Science Report 2007 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment Skeptical Science website see one liners UU-UNO Climate Portal: soup to nuts climate U.S. Quadrennial Defense Review (2010)
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Bottom Line We have a big problem and we can solve it

Human

activities are causing recent global warming trend of climate change Climate impacts mostly bad, observed now, and will become far worse if we do not act Climate action is opposed by strong forces
NOT

too late to prevent worst impacts You can help

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Thank You

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