Trkiye Trklerin istedii eyi yapmamal

Ekonomi ve D Politika Aratrmalar Merkezi EDAM, birka gn nce, Esed sonras Suriyede Trkiyenin oynamas gereken role dair sorular ynelttii kamuoyu aratrmasnn sonularn aklad. Anket eyll aynda yaplm, yani ekim banda Suriye havan toplarnn Akakaleyi vurup be Trk vatandan ldrmesinden nce. Ankete katlan 1500 kiinin yars, Esed rejiminden sonra Trkiyenin Suriyede mdahil olmamasn ya da tarafsz kalmasn istiyor. Trkiyenin atan taraflar arasnda potansiyel arabulucu rolne sadece yzde 18 orannda destek kt, geri Esed sahneyi terk ettikten sonra meydann hangi taraflara kalaca henz belli deil. Belli olan bir ey var, Trk hkmetinin yrrlkteki politikalar, Trk halknn bu ankette dile getirdii istekleri yerine getirmiyor. Babakan Erdoan ile Dileri Bakan Davutolu, atma baladndan beri net biimde gsterdi ki, pek ok cana mal olan Suriye dramnn sona ermesinde Trkiyenin faal rol oynamasn istiyorlar. Bunu icap ettiren insani sebeplere, Ankarann, tarihin doru tarafnda olmann Trkiyenin Suriye ve blgedeki uzun vadeli karlarna hizmet edecei hesab elik ediyor. Asl soru u: Trklerin kendisinden Suriyede istediinin tam tersini yapt iin Trk hkmeti sulanmal m? Erdoan ile Davuto-luna gemite pek ok vesileyle Suriye politikalar yznden saldrld. Bana gre, genelde yanl sebeplerden. Mehur komularla sfr sorun politikasnn tacndaki elmas olarak, Trkiyenin 2002den sonra Suriyeye almas, yaplabilecek en bilgece ve akllca ilerdendi. Hem Anadolu i leminin karlarna hizmet ettiinden hem de bylesine kolay alevlenen bir blgede komularla iyi ilikilere sahip olmann kendi bana emek harcanmaya deer bir hedef olmasndan. O zaman daha yksek sesle eletirilmesi gereken, kendini herkes iin daha fazla demokrasinin byk savunucusu olarak sunan bir hkmetin, Esedin feci insan haklar sicilini halnn altna sprmesiydi. Ancak Suriye nfusunun geni kesimleri Esed diktatrln kabullenmez hale geldikten sonra, Trkiye hkmeti, Suriye Devlet Bakann, ayaklanmay durdurmak iin reformlar hayata geirmeye iknaya alarak doru tercihi yapt. Ancak Ankarann Esed zerindeki nfuzuna dair algs Esedin Trk taleplerini dinleme ve onlara uyma istekliliiyle uyumaynca, sert kayaya tosland ksa srede anlald. Trkiyenin Erdoan ile Davutolunun arzu ettii blgesel siyasi g olmad ortaya karken, her ikisi de Avrupa ile ABDye tam tersini sylediinden kiisel olarak alnd. Erdoan ile Davutolunun Esedden hayal krklna uramasnn ardndan, Suriye muhalefetini desteklemek ve etkilemek manal geldi, tabii ksa srede i savan bitecei ve Esed sonrasnn yeni ve dost hkmetiyle iyi ilikiler tesis edilecei beklentisiyle. Eletiriler buradaki yanl analize yneltilmeli, zira kestirme zm yoktu, ama bu hataya den tek lke Trkiye deildi. Tiksintisini dile getirmek iin en hain sylemlerden rnekler sunan Trk hkmeti, gvenli ya da uua yasak blge kurulmas talebini ok erkenden, defalarca dile getirdi. Gel gr ki, bunu talep eden tek lke olarak uluslararas alanda tmden yalnz kald. Yine, eletiriler bu yanl hesab hedef almal, mlteci aknna urayan ve snrnda sregiden savan ceremesini eken bir lkeden gelmesi asndan kendi iinde mantkl talepleri deil. Kendi yalnz konumundan hsrana urayan ve dier balca oyuncularn konumunu yeniden deerlendiren Trkiye, bir baka senaryoyu tercih ederek, Esedi destekleyen ran ve Rusya gibi lkelerle diyaloa alan at. BM ve Arap Birliinin Suriye Temsilcisi El-Ahdar el-brahimiye de bayramda atekesin salanmas iin tam destek verdi.

Trk hkmeti, byle yaparak, EDAM anketinde ounluun aksettirdii konuma daha yaklam gzkyor. Kiisel olarak, umarm ki, Ankara, bir yandan daha gereki olurken, Esedi mmkn olduunca abuk iktidardan gnderme ve bunu takip edecek karmak gei srecinin sonucunu etkileme politikasna sadk kalr. Trk hkmeti, Trklerin ounluunun bunu istemesi gibi bir olguya ramen, Suriyede tmden geri durma arlarna teslim olmamal.

Turkey should not do what Turks want on Syria

A few days ago, the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM) published the results of a public opinion survey on the role that Turkey should play in a post-Assad Syria. The survey was undertaken during the month of September, so just before Syrian shells hit the town of Akakale, killing five Turkish nationals, in the beginning of October. Half of the 1,500 people who were polled want Turkey to remain uninvolved or impartial in Syria after the end of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime. Only 18 percent support Turkey in a potential role as mediator among the parties of the conflict, although it is not quite clear which parties we are talking about after Assad has left the scene. It is obvious, however, that the current policies of the Turkish government do not reflect the wishes of the Turkish population as expressed in this poll. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutolu have made it clear from the start of the conflict that they want Turkey to play an active role in trying to end the Syrian drama that has cost so many lives. Next to the humanitarian reasons for doing so, there is also the calculation made in Ankara that being on the right side of history will serve Turkey's long-term interests in Syria and the rest of the region. The question is whether the Turkish government should be blamed for doing basically the opposite of what a majority of Turks want them to do in Syria. In the past, Erdoan and Davutolu have on several occasions been attacked for their Syria policy -- according to me, often for the wrong reasons. As the jewel in the crown of the famous zero problems with neighbors policy, Turkey's opening up to Syria after 2002 was a wise and clever thing to do not only because it served the economic interests of the Anatolian business class but also because having good relations with neighbors in itself is a worthy goal to strive for in such a volatile region. What should have been denounced much stronger then by the Turkish public was the fact that the abominable human rights record of the Assad regime had been swept under the rug by a government that was proud to present itself as the big defender of more democracy for all. Once large parts of the Syrian population no longer accepted the Assad dictatorship, Turkey made the right choice in trying to convince the Syrian president to introduce reforms in order to stop the uprising. It soon turned out, though, that Ankara's perception of its sway over Assad was not matched by his willingness to listen and give in to Turkish demands. It became clear that

Turkey is not the regional power broker Erdoan and Davutolu want it to be, and they both felt personally offended because they had told the US and Europe otherwise. After they became disillusioned with Assad, it made sense to support and influence the Syrian opposition, thinking the civil war would be over soon and expecting to shortly restore good relations with a friendly new post-Assad government. Criticism should be directed at the wrong analysis made -- there is no quick fix -- but Turkey was not the only country to make that mistake. The Turkish government did use some of the harshest rhetoric in voicing its disgust, however, and early on repeatedly asked for permission to establish safe havens or a no-fly zone, only to discover that Ankara was totally isolated internationally in these demands. Again, the criticism should be pointed at the miscalculation, not at the requests themselves, which are only logical coming from a country that is flooded with refugees and bears the brunt of the continued fighting just across the border. Frustrated with its solitary position and having made a new assessment of the position of the other main players, Turkey has now opted for another scenario in which there is room for dialogue with Russia and Iran, the countries backing Assad. Turkey has also given full support to UN and Arab League envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi to try and reach a ceasefire over the bayram (religious holiday). By doing so, the Turkish government seems to be moving closer to the positions echoed by a majority in the EDAM poll. Personally, I hope that Ankara, while being more realistic, sticks to its policy of trying to remove Assad from power as soon as possible and to influence the outcome of the complicated transition process that will follow. The government should not give in to the call to fully back off despite the fact that most Turks would apparently like that. yi Bayramlar to all of you.