Driverless Cars Ahead: Get Out Front or Get Run Over!

By Steve Garfink
The transition to full vehicle automation is imminent. These technologies will disrupt the auto industry and all it touches to an extent unseen since Henry Ford introduced mass production at the dawn of the automobile era. Companies, governments and other organizations that anticipate the speed of this change and adapt accordingly can garner enormous success in a once-in-a-century opportunity. Whatever your role in this industry manufacturer, supply chain, infrastructure creator, regulator, insurer those who fail to adjust in a timely manner will surely share the fate of the whip & buggy business early in the 20th century. Understanding how and why this transformation will occur is crucial to developing a communication strategy that will ensure your ability to thrive in the emerging world of cars that drive themselves.

When Cars Drive Themselves www.seercommunications.com

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Driverless car technology is coming. Are you ready?

According to the representations of numerous auto manufacturers, the ability for cars to drive themselves on full autopilot will be available soon: years, not decades. From an Associated Press report dated January 26, 2013 from Davos, Switzerland: Sebastian Thrun, a computer science professor at Stanford University and leader of Google's Self-Driving Car Project, said he thinks Google co-founder Sergey Brin's prediction that within five years driverless cars will be on the streets used by regular people is going to happen. The growing awareness of this technology shift is reflected in recent online search trends:
Web Search Interest driverless cars Worldwide, 2004 present, as of 03-18-13

Others are quick to point out that finalization of the technology is only one step and perhaps not the most challenging towards adoption of driverless car technology by the public. Numerous institutional stakeholders, such as state and federal government legislatures and agencies, departments of transportation, highway patrols and insurers, will inevitably be engaged in this transition some constructively and some in opposition. Beyond these institutions, many wonder how long it will take the public to adjust to surrendering driving control to their vehicle. The one need all these constituencies share is for education about this coming transition. One thing is certain: if those institutions who stand to prosper from this transition fail to proactively manage their critical communications, this information will likely be provided by others in an uncontrolled manner that could seriously hamper the emergence of this new market. The absence of a clear communication strategy could prove costly because the opportunity is unprecedented in recent automotive history. It is difficult to overstate the potential magnitude of driverless technology in terms of the impact on our relationship with cars. Transportation whether by foot, horse or automobile has required a human driver from early times. Thats about to change. It will soon become possible for people of all ages and capacities to effectively have access to a machine-based chauffeur, 24/7. When that day arrives, and the consumers of
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auto transportation have a choice of whether to drive themselves or let their technology-based chauffeur drive, the impact on design preferences for vehicles might be profound. This transition could open up unprecedented opportunities within the auto industry to gain competitive advantage and for many currently outside the industry to gain entrance in a significantly disrupted market. For auto manufacturers this means proactively managing the conversation with all constituencies to demonstrate your understanding of how this transition will affect stakeholders as well as your ability to deliver on the promise and expectations that will develop as driverless cars appear in the market. The auto industry supply chain (including those who aspire to enter this market) needs to communicate its savvy grasp of this new technology so that the auto manufacturers know they have knowledgeable partners who will be able to deliver in response to whatever shifting demand for new designs and capabilities emerges in the course of this transition. Government agencies have much at stake as well. Federal and state agencies and legislatures will need to act to authorize the operation of these vehicles in regular traffic. The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA) must set the safety standards against which this emerging technology must be tested. Will these bureaucracies be agile enough to conduct the massive outreach and digest the feedback in order to deliver an effective and timely response? Driverless cars promise far more efficient use of infrastructure that could (favorably) affect highway capacity planning. Given the lengthy lead time involved in such planning (often decades), affected agencies need to launch this conversation internally and externally now. They wont serve their citizens well if caught flat-footed committing to roadway expansion projects that will not be needed. The remainder of this document examines three reasons why you should assess whether your company or organization needs to start now to develop a proactive strategy for reaching out to your key stakeholders regarding the advent of driverless car technologies: (1) the magnitude of the impact of this once-in-a-century transition on nearly everyone, (2) the need to fill the void of communication about this transition, and (3) the possibility that adoption rates of this new technology will be faster than anticipated. The analysis is intended to test your assumptions about the shift towards driverless transportation and provide insights to better prepare you to launch a communications strategy that positions you to gain from this extraordinary opportunity.

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3 Reasons You Need a Proactive Communication Strategy Now

1. Capitalize on a once-in-a-century opportunity.
It is difficult to overstate the impact that autonomous vehicle technologies will have within and even beyond the automobile industry. This assertion may seem exaggerated, especially in the context of the long line of incremental improvements to driving since the first automobiles were introduced. However, what sets this improvement apart from all the others is the added value it provides to this well-established mode of transportation. Consider what it meant when the car first replaced the horse as the principal means of travel. Over a matter of a few decades the automobile made it possible for humans to travel and move goods much further, much faster, more reliably and at greatly reduced cost per mile. As the infrastructure was improved to accommodate the car, the returns in worker productivity and economic output were enormous, with annual GDP gains playing out through most of the 20th century. Mainly this was due to better division of labor as larger pools of workers were available to employers in a given geographic area (and conversely, more jobs available per worker). Other gains flowed from the improved accessibility of schools, medical services, retail and entertainment. In recent decades these gains enjoyed diminishing returns. Sure, enormous strides have been made in comfort, reliability, safety, cleanliness, and value. Still, at the end of the day, a car gets you somewhere more quickly and cost effectively than a horse and buggy, same as it did 100 years ago. Put another way, the productivity gains provided by the latest models of automobiles are only incrementally better than those provided by the Model T. Thats about to change. To understand why, consider what did not change with the advent of the automobile: just as with the horse and buggy, you still need a driver. Since every vehicle trip up to today (outside of Google test vehicles and the like) has required a driver, you might say that the history of the auto industry since its start consists of a series of incremental steps to make the driving (and secondarily, the riding) more comfortable, safer and cost-effective. In other words, make the necessity of driving feel less like a chore. Over the last century the industry has become expert in parsing the market to provide the driving experience of highest value to each segment. Delivering the best driving experience for any given price point is the organizing principle of this market. Decades of this marketing effort have imbued the act of driving with a positive spin like painting Huck Finns fence that masks this underlying fact: driving is still a chore. For many if not most drivers, the best driving experience will be when someone else does it, especially someone who can do it better than any human. Eventually we may well prefer becoming passengers in our cars because this will deliver unprecedented value: considerable free time to do almost anything but drive.

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The auto industry hasnt experienced a game changer like this since, well, the first automobiles. Since then we have had a parade of incremental improvements: electric ignition; power locks, windows, steering and brakes; music delivery with AM, AM/FM radio, cassette (after a brief cartridge detour), CD, iPod; safety improvements from radial to run-flat tires, cruise control, ABS, TCS, ACC, LDWS; fuel efficiency gains and emission reductions; nearly infinite variety in interior customization. Even taken collectively these improvements dont compare to the value proposition that comes with a car that drives itself. A 24/7 chauffeur is an unimaginable luxury for most people. Until now. When a cars utility no longer depends on the availability of a driver, the driving experience drops in importance. The vehicle becomes all about the riding experience. How this will change the auto industry is difficult to predict. However, the fact that the changes will be profound one can argue disruptive is beyond dispute. Those who follow the transition closely will be best positioned to identify opportunities to gain from this disruption. To the extent you identify your pathway forward before your competitors, you can stake out a position of leadership. Early and effective communication to your stakeholders can help assure your success and theirs in navigating the transition to a driverless car future.

Why Automated Vehicles will (Finally) become Reality

The idea of driverless cars has almost been around since the first automobile. The General Motors Futurama Exhibit most popular exhibit at the 1939 Worlds Fair in New York featured electric cars operating on a dedicated roadway under radio control. This vision remained just that until the 1990s when Congress authorized the Automated Highway System research project. One manifestation of this project was a fleet of eight Buick LeSabres operating under full autopilot on an unopened commuter lane section of I-15 in San Diego, California. The fleet drove bumper-to-bumper from one exit to another and the public was invited along for test rides. Passengers reported being dazzled and amazed to be riding with no one in active control behind the wheel for about a minute, until the novelty wore off, and then it was just another ride in a car Still, these early concepts relied on a dedicated infrastructure, free of nonautonomous vehicles. Today, engineers are relying on computer advances to create cars that can operate autonomously within the regular driving environment. This eliminates the costly chicken and egg problem that a dedicated infrastructure requires, reducing the barriers to entry.

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2. If you dont fill the communications void, someone else will.

It isnt enough to maintain a position on the cutting technological edge of the transition to driverless cars. If the change is as momentous as argued above, then an information void will form as the change gets underway. Stakeholders require more education, the greater the change. Are you proactively filling that void with useful communication that captures your role (or desired role) in bringing autonomous vehicles to market? If not, you risk losing control of the conversation to others whose agenda may be detrimental to yours. This may seem unlikely when you consider the benefits of driverless cars: 24/7 chauffeurs, eliminate most car accidents and related injuries and deaths, eliminate most traffic congestion, and reduce tailpipe emissions. Whats not to like? You might be surprised: almost every substantial change creates winners and losers. Who might be threatened by the advent of driverless cars such that they might fill the communications void with a contrary message? o Consider the 1.6 million professional truck drivers, 650,000 bus drivers and 240,000 cabbies who stand to lose their professions entirely. o Impact on hospitals: what happens to emergency room demand when the roughly 3.5 million annual visits related to traffic accidents are dramatically reduced (never mind the first responders that bring them in) o Approximately 75,000 highway patrol officers nationwide will have less and less to do as the number of accidents shrinks and driverless cars scrupulously follow the traffic laws. o Highway expansion could grind to a halt as autonomous vehicles are able to double or triple the lane capacity of existing roads. About $19 billion was spent on capacity expansion of about 7,000 highway lane miles in 2008 (most recent year for which data is available). While there is enough of a backlog for maintenance and repair that this revenue could be fully redeployed for this purpose, thereby utilizing most of the resources previously dedicated to road expansion, this is not guaranteed: might politicians reallocate the funds elsewhere, and with what effect on this industry? This partial list of those who might be adversely affected by autonomous vehicles already totals over 3 million jobs and hundreds of billions in annual dollars of business revenues, wages and benefits. Other parties such as driving enthusiasts who might see a threat to their driving freedoms or environmentalists who prefer reduced driving might also perceive a threat from the authorization of driverless cars and react in unpredictable ways. In this regard it is interesting to note that in the very early days of the automobile in England, certain parties didnt care for what they saw as the incursion of locomotives from the rails to the roads (adapting with rubber tires). They lobbied to pass a law in 1865 requiring, among other restrictions, a flagman with a red flag or lantern to walk 60 yards ahead of any locomotive, including automobiles, to warn others who might be using the roadway! Needless to say, this
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was a considerable hindrance to the utility of the earliest cars. Moreover, this restriction was not fully repealed until 1896, long after motor vehicles had become somewhat commonplace. Who will fill in the conversation about driverless cars today? In the absence of sufficient proactive communications, certain stakeholders averse to this change may promote a contrary position that could prove costly, especially if uncontested. Already the messaging has started, with ever-growing general coverage of the emerging technology in the press. Examples of relevant messaging include an ad for the Dodge Charger in early 2011 poking fun at an unmanned car driven by a search engine company by extolling the thrill of driving and declaring Charger aficionados the resistance movement not proactive for a driverless car future! On the other side, a Googlesponsored video demonstrated how driverless cars will provide much desired mobility to the sight-impaired, and by analogy, to all whose mobility is limited by their inability to obtain a license (including the young and the old). From another proactive angle, Aptus Insurance sponsored a poster depicting the benefits of autonomous vehicles. The conversation is ongoing. For all practical purposes though, communication on the subject remains in early stages. The canvas remains to be filled. The opinions of many categories of stakeholders have yet to gel. That means all who stand to gain from the transition to driverless cars still have the opportunity to stake their position by communicating their claim to this future. The more effectively these new conversations are promoted, the more difficult it will be for others to establish a counterargument. Early positioning in a once-in-a-century opportunity is a chance to establish leadership, recognition and trust. Let all your key stakeholders know early on why the transition to autonomous vehicles is valuable to them and how you are in the
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What Concerns should the Government have?

Simply put, governments at all levels should be leading the bandwagon for driverless cars, the sooner the better. The outcome is almost all gain, no pain:

Redeploy funds earmarked for highway capacity expansion to other needs Similarly reallocate funds for parking expansion Repurpose highway patrol to other law enforcement activities Reduce subsidy for healthcare from fewer ER visits related to accidents Reap higher tax revenues from productivity gains due to decreased traffic congestion Facilitate attainment of targeted emissions reductions

Government can play a major role in facilitating an autonomous vehicle future by establishing the safety criteria for approval of full autonomous driving, and by proactively modifying vehicle operation and accident liability laws to accommodate this new technology.

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forefront of making this future a reality. The opportunities (in addition to videos and posters) are all but limitless. Examples include articles (general and trade publications), press releases, white papers, case studies, video scripts, web content, product/service descriptions, presentations and internal communications documents.

3. What if adoption of driverless cars unfolds faster than most think?

Auto manufacturers have a century of experience introducing technological innovation to drivers. They have carefully studied adoption rates for new features and developed a sophisticated understanding of their customers. They also understand with considerable precision how feature costs drop as a function of adoption rates, fostering further adoption. Innovations that directly involve the driving experience often take customers longer to adapt to than comfort features like audio systems, heated seats and the like. For instance, it took considerable time for drivers new to Anti-lock Braking Systems (ABS) to unlearn the habit of pumping their brakes on slick roadways. Manufacturers appear to infer from this history that the considerably bigger step of getting comfortable giving up control of the vehicle to an autopilot will be even more protracted. Many engineers anticipate a long period during which drivers maintain stand-by control of the automobile, much as airline pilots do in the cockpit. (Some go so far as to speculate that drivers may never be comfortable fully releasing control.) One reason that this view could prove mistaken is that it undervalues the relative benefit delivered by changing behavior in this case, surrendering control of driving to the vehicle. Proper use of ABS delivers a safer drive; thats a probabilistic benefit that most drivers may never (hopefully!) realize, at least to the extent they never have to brake hard on a rain-slicked roadway. Driving with a safe, 24/7 autopilot, by contrast, delivers a tangible benefit the moment the driver releases control: free personal time. The quicker you adapt to it and the more you use it, the more benefit you receive. Note that the Automated Highway System demonstration project conducted in the 1990s had a phase that allowed the public to ride in an automated fleet of eight Buick Skylarks operating bumper-to-bumper on Interstate 15 in San Diego. Most riders described the experience as exciting, unusual, fascinating, futuristic for about the first minute. Then they said the rest of the ride was kind of boring. Well, sure: it was just like being a passenger, an experience with which they already had plenty of familiarity! The overall value of that benefit depends on how someone values their time. While that will vary across the driving population, heres a useful way to consider it. Americans with drivers licenses spend about 50 minutes a day driving, about 300 hours a year and a bit over 5% of our time outside of sleep. Thats like nearly three weeks of extra life each year, or an extra year of life every twenty years! What advances in the past century have yielded a comparable amount of free time? No, I cant think of any either

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Driving consumes valuable time that most of us would prefer by far to redeploy to higher value activities. Judging from anecdotal observations, many would rather be eating, applying make-up, shaving, sleeping, phoning, texting or being otherwise occupied with our smart phones, despite laws against many such activities in numerous states. For the most part the act of driving provides little intrinsic value. Instead, we value the mobility made possible by driving. Therefore, the opportunity for widespread mobility without the need for human driving is a game changer of historic consequence. How often have we thought What I wouldnt give to get an extra day (week, month) of time Soon that dream will become reality through driverless car technology. The desire to adopt fast may surprise the industry. Moreover, initially higher costs may prove less an impediment to adoption than some think. Thats because many Americans have a hidden source of funds available for transportation purposes. We tend to allocate a fixed budget of roughly 10% of our incomes for transportation purposes, mostly for automobile travel. This is largely why we have a new car market where prices start at $10,000 and run upwards of $100,000. In terms of productive value, the more expensive cars dont deliver much more than the least expensive. Both will get you where you are going fairly reliably and safely. The difference in price is possible because those with higher incomes look to spend more somewhere, so they purchase greater amounts of luxury, performance, status, etc. The value that a 24/7 chauffeur delivers will be worth dropping tens of thousands of dollars of other features to acquire the driverless capability as soon as possible. As an illustration, instead of a $35,000 car with its attendant feature set today, those buyers might choose to buy a $20,000 car if it could be available with autopilot capability for an additional $15,000 at an early point in the market. They will enjoy far higher marginal utility for the same budget. This ability to budget-shift could
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Private Automobiles are Unlikely to Go Away

A number of prognosticators point to the relatively low utilization of cars and conclude that autonomous technologies will make it possible to have cars available on demand at a very low hourly cost, all but eliminating the need for private ownership: Zipcars that appear promptly when you call. Some speculate we could get by on 80% fewer vehicles in operation. As noted elsewhere, most already spend far more on their cars than they need to, so money is not the sole or even paramount driver of the ownership decision. Moreover, for most of us our cars become an extension of our private living quarters where we can selectively keep our stuff. Finally, my car may be a mess, but its a mess with my dirt, my germs (or my familys). More likely is that the car manufacturing business will remain robust and design attention will shift away from the driving experience and more towards a focus on the riding experience: the car will become more of an annex for the home and office.

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rapidly accelerate demand for self-driving vehicles, further accelrating the movement of these enabling technologies down their cost curves. (Some in the industry currently forecast that costs eventually will drop to the $3,000 range or below.) To the extent the transition to driverless cars unfolds faster than most anticipate, many in the automobile industry may be caught off guard. Those who anticipate and prepare for the possibility of early adoption can position themselves to make the most of the opportunities that will emerge as the market evolves. The need for a proactive communications strategy becomes even more important. Failure to put your message in play early and keep promoting it will only increase the difficulty of entering and establishing a leadership position in this market later on, once there is counter-messaging to overcome.

Conclusion: The transition to cars capable of driving

themselves is now visible on the horizon. While the way in which this transition unfolds is impossible to predict with precision, those who wish to gain from this change will best serve themselves by developing and implementing their communications strategies today, before someone else stakes out a counter-position. Early development of this strategy will also serve you well if the transition unfolds faster than most others expect. Under any scenario, establishing an effective communications program is key to making the most of this once-in-a-century opportunity.

About Seer Communications

Seer Communications was founded by the author, Steve Garfink, specifically to help businesses, government institutions at all levels and other organizations develop and implement communication strategies for their core constituencies concerning the transition to driverless cars. From development of internal communications guides, to all manner of external communications, we work with you and your partners to mold your overall messaging strategy to best position you to succeed as the auto industry adopts and incorporates autonomous vehicle technologies. For further information please feel free to call him at (408) 761-4797 (PST zone) or email him directly at steve.garfink@seercommunications.com.

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