Portfolio Task 2

Mathematics SL Population trend in China

Name of the Candidate: Vikram Rathore Candidate Number: dhc444 Session Number: 003528-001 Name of the School: Johnson Grammar School, I.C.S.E School code: 003528 Examination session: May, 2012 Name of the instructor: Mrs. Shantha

Vikram Rathore 2 dhc444(003528-001)

Introduction:
China has the world largest population. As such it is a chief objective of study for many demographers.In order to sudy the population of this country effectively, its essential to know the different trends the population takes on and the various forms it may take in the future. Envisaging the nature of the a population is very important for the country specially in the fiels like economy or business and also its implication on the environment. In order to study the above it is needed to device a mode to signify the population as a function of time. Therefore a conjucture should be developed which could seem to fit the given set of records. Development of conjucture: For the development of conjecture, the most important details that have to be considered as follows; The family of the function The variables concerned. The variable parameters which are concerned in the function.

Table 1: The data table below shows the data provided for the population of china.
Population (in million 554.8 609.0 657.5 729.2 830.7 927.8 998.9 1070.0 1155.3 1220.5

Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Vikram Rathore 3 dhc444(003528-001) Graph 1: The graph is plotted using logger pro 3.6.1.

From table 1 and graph 1, it can be seen that the population of China is incresasing with the years , therefore in order to define the incresing trend, first, the linear model is considered.

Linear model:
In the linear method first the value of a, t and b is calculated from the equation obtained as , where t is number of years y = a*t + b (1)

i)

Substituting t = 0 in eq (1), then

555.5 = 0*t + b b = 554.8 ii) Substituting t = 5and b = 554.8in eq (1), then

609 = a(5) + b 609 = 5a + 554.8 Therefore, a = 10.84 Substituting a and b is the eq(1) for different years, population is calculated.

Vikram Rathore 4 dhc444(003528-001) The table 2 below shows the % of error in population calculated and the given population The table is drawn using MS excel2007.

Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Given population 554.8 609.0 657.5 729.2 830.7 927.8 998.9 1070.0 1155.3 1220.3

Found population 554.8 609 663.2 717.4 771.6 825.8 880 934.2 988.4 1042.6

Difference 0 0 5.7 11.8 59.1 102 118.9 135.8 1666.9 177.7

% Error 0 0 0.87 1.62 7.11 11.0 11.9 12.7 14.4 14.6

The Average error obtained is 8.24%

Though the population trend shown by the linear model is increasing like the trend shown by the given population, the average error obtained is 8.24%, which is quite high. The difference found between the given population and the calculated population is different and it is not fixed throughout, consequently, the linear fit model may not fit into all the data points. Therefore, the linear fit model is not appropriate to show the population trend. This can also be seen from the linear fit graph given below:

Vikram Rathore 5 dhc444(003528-001) Graph 2: The graph is plotted using logger pro 1.3.6.

Quadratic model:
After liner model the next polynomial is a quadratic which is used to model the data using the equation: p(t) = at2+ bt + c When t = 0, the population is 554.8 i.e., in the year 1950.
In the quadratic method, first the value of a, t and b is calculated from the equation obtained as

p(t) = at2+ bt + c .. (2)

i)

Substituting t = 0 in eq (2), then

P(0) = a(0)2 + b(0) + c 554.8 = a(0)2 + b(0) + c Therefore, c = 554.8

Vikram Rathore 6 dhc444(003528-001) Now, two more data points were substituted in the equation (2). ii) Substituting t = 10 in eq (2), then

657.5 = a(10)2 + b(10) + 554.8 (3) 729.2 = a(15)2 + b(15) + 554.8 (4) Solving the two equation i.e., the equation 3 and equation 4 simultaneously a = 0.197 b = 6.745, are obtained. P(t) = 0.197(t)2 + 6.745(15) +554.8 = 700.3 P(15) = 0.197(15)2 + 6.745(15) +554.8 = 768.5

From the equation, It is found that, when t = 15 the population is 700.3, but the actual population is 729.2. As a result of it, the difference obtained is (729.2-700.3) = 28.9, and hence the error percentage is calculated which turned out to be 3.96%.

P20) = 0.197(20)2 + 6.745(20) +554.8 =768.5

The given population of China at 1970 is 830.7 million, but the population found by substituting the calculated value of a and b in the equation is 768.5 million, thus the difference obtained is 7.45 million. Similarly, the difference in the weight and the percentage of error is calculated for different years and presented in the column below-

Vikram Rathore 7 dhc444(003528-001) Table 3: percentage of error is calculated for different years

Year

Given population
554.8

Found population
554.8

Difference

% Error

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

0 593.45 5 641.95 0 700.3 28.9 768.5 62.2 846.55 73.5 934.45 85.6 1032.2 37.8 1139.8 52.9 1257.25 23.8 3.47%

0 0.83 0 3.96 7.45 7.92 6.77 3.53 4.58 1.96 Average error =

609.0 657.5 729.2 830.7 927.8 998.9 1070.0 1155.3 1220.5

Graph3: Population (in million) vs. years

The graph below shows difference in the trend of calculated population from the given population
1400 p 1200 o p 1000 u 800 l a 600 t i 400 o n 200 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 years

given population calculated population

Vikram Rathore 8 dhc444(003528-001)

Cubic model:
If is found that generally, cubic logarithmic or exponential functions are used to model the population growth. A cubic function may be fit well for the data points. This function for the above data can be modeled by an equation. P(t) = a(t)3 + b(t)2 + c(t) + d .. (5)

When we substitute the value t = 0 in the above equation P(0) = a(t)3 + b(t)2 + c(t) + d P(554.8) = a(03 + b(0)2 + c(0) + d d = 554.8 Substituting two more data points in the equation (5) gives; a =0.0358 b = -0.692 c = 0.00385 Table 4;
year Given population (in millions) Found population (in millions) 554.8 593.45 641.95 700.3 768.5 846.55 934.45 1032.2 1139.8 1257.25 Error %

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

554.8 609.0 657.5 729.2 830.7 927.8 998.9 1070.0 1155.3 1220.5

0 1.23E-05 6.08E-05 0.000168 2.684146 14.01106 37.40022 70.65285 111.8219 167.5108

Mean = 40.40812

Vikram Rathore 9 dhc444(003528-001)

It can be seen that the mean % of error obtained is 40.40812. This could be because of the fact that many points doesnt seems to have co-relation. The obtained percentage is very high and consequently the cubic model cannot be used. Graph 4: Population (in million) vs. years The graph below shows how well the cubic model fit the given data.
1400

p 1200 o p 1000 u 800 l a 600 t i 400 o 200 n

0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 years

given population found population

In the above graph the calculated data points doesnt seems to fit the trend from year 20 to 45, and hence, the proposed model cannot be used to model the given data points.

P (t) =

where K, L and m are parameters. Where m>0 and t

and m cannot be a

negative number. This is because if m takes a negative number then t cannot tend to 0. If t is positive value the over value tend to K. P (t) = . (6)

P (t) =

()

-1 =

Substituting t= 0 in eq. (6) P (0) = 554.8 Let k be integral multiple of 554.8 Let k= 3 X 554.8

Vikram Rathore 10 dhc444(003528-001)

K = 1664.4

P (t) = = = = L=
( )

which is given

= =
( )

( )

-1

( ) ( ) ( )

(7)

Substituted k= 1664.4, t = 0 in eq(7) L= L=2 Putting these values in eq (6), the following function is obtained. P (t) =

The value of M is varied to get the significance of M in the graphical representation is deduced.

Vikram Rathore 11 dhc444(003528-001)

Table 5: Year m = 0.1 m =0.2 m =0.3

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

554.8 752.2106 959.1458 1151.167 1310.212 1430.006 1513.937 1569.802 1605.729 1628.325

554.8 959.1458 1310.212 1513.937 1605.729 1642.338 1656.22 1661.383 1663.29 1663.992

554.8 1151.167 1513.937 1628.3325 1656.22 1662.57 1663.992 1664.309 1664.38 1664.395

Graph 5:Population (in million) vs. years The graph is plotted by substituting m= 0.1 in eq (6)
1800

P o p u l a t i o n

1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 years given population found population

Vikram Rathore 12 dhc444(003528-001)

From the graph 3 it can be seen that the when m = 0.3 the trend found is very much different from the trend which the given population shows.

Graph 6: Population (in million) vs. years The graph is plotted by substituting m= 0.2 in eq (6)
1800

P o p u l a t i o n

1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Years given population found population

When m = 0.2 the trend shown by the given population is unlike from the trend of found population.

Vikram Rathore 13 dhc444(003528-001)

Graph 7: Population (in million) vs. years The graph is plotted by substituting m= 0.3 in eq(6) P o p u l n a t i o
1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 given population found population

years
Again at m = 0.3 also the trend shown by the found population is different from the given population.But it can also seen that when m = 0.1 the function seems to be more appropriate than others. After substituting more value of m, it is deduced that, when m = 0.037 the graph is more appropriate and demonstrates the actual population to a great extent.

Table 6 year Given population (in millions) 554.8 609.0 657.5 729.2 830.7 927.8 998.9 1070.0 1155.3 1220.3 m = 0.037 % Error

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

554.8 625.2408 698.9912 774.9534 851.8863 928.4841 1003.463 1075.647 1144.036 1207.852

0 2.67 6.31 6.27 2.55 0.07 0.46 0.53 0.97 0.01

Average error percentage = 1.98 % The average error obtained is 1.98% which is quite less and very much acceptable.

Vikram Rathore 14 dhc444(003528-001)

Graph 8: Population (in million) vs. years The graph is plotted by substituting m= 0.037 in eq(6)

P 1200 o 1000 p u 800 l n 600 a 400 t 200 i 0 o

1400

Given population found population

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

years

The graph of a proposed function co-relates well with nearly all the points excluding in the range of 10-20. In table 6 the maximum percentage obtained is 6.27 and the average percentage of error obtained is 1.98% which is very less relative to the previous model. Therefore, this can be used to illustrate the trends in population of china logically. The graph below shows the trend the graph will for the next 150 years. The predicted population (in million) shows that the population trends toward a certain constant and will never exceed it. This is accordance with what was hypothesized about the parameters which states that K is maximum limit that the population can take.

Vikram Rathore 15 dhc444(003528-001)

Graph9: Population (in million) vs. years The graph is plotted by substituting m= 0.037 in eq (6) for 150 years.

Graph obtained from modelled function

P o p u l a t i o n
1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 found population

years
The function doesnt represent the population (in million) precisely since the random values are to be assumed as K. if the maximum value which a population can take was provided it would have helped considerably in both modeling the data provided and for the predicting its trends in the future. The graph above provides only the quantitative analysis of the population trend and not a quantitative one as no discrete pieces of evidences are used to define the parameters for the values K and L. Supplementary data published by the International Monetary Fund regarding Population trends in China gives the following data: Table 7
year 1983 1992 1997 2000 2003 2005 2008 Population ( in millions) 1030.1 1171.7 1236.3 1267.4 1292.3 1307.6 1327.7

Vikram Rathore 16 dhc444(003528-001)

Graph 10: represents the trend shown by the data given in table 8

By assigning the specific values for K, L and M in the researchers model, the function which fittest the population was devised. Thought in the investigation it is found that most of data is flitting the population of China for the higher values of the calculated population seems to be higher beyond the year 2003 when compared to actual population. By using technology and trying for the best fitting graph, it is found that the Gaussian function of the form given below satisfies all the data points. Therefore the population trend can be modeled by using Gaussian function as

P (t) =

+d ..(8)

Vikram Rathore 17 dhc444(003528-001)

Conclusion:
Therefore, the above Gaussian function defined for all the parameters mentioned acts as a suitable model for which the data points fit within the respectable error boundaries.

P(t) =

+d

Software used for the portfolio:

Logger pro 3.6.1. Excel spreadsheet