CHOOSE CHANGE

Forward-Looking Research at Its Best

Maggie Collier Kirsty Fuller

The true power of knowledge lies in its role of informing and guiding a brands future marketing plans. Usually knowledge is retrospective: marketers and advertisers learn from their success as well as mistakes; they seek to project the future by understanding the past. In this era of accelerated change, retrospective knowledge or even knowledge of the present is no longer sufficient. Managers of brands require forwardlooking knowledge, as failure to look forward costs brands their lives. This paper describes an approach to qualitative research which helps companies shape the future brand and advertising landscape. It explores the definition of leading edge and argues that for any one brand there is a multiplicity of leading edge targets depending on whether design, advertising, product development or product usage is the subject of the study. It dispels the myth that the leading edge exists as an entity relevant across categories (a view particularly prevalent in the youth market) and looks at how each brand must define its own leading edge.

Maggie Collier, Kirsty Fuller

TAKING UP THE CHALLENGE: RESEARCH FOR THE FUTURE

Foreseeing the Unpredictable
It was the question Can we foresee the unpredictable? which inspired us to write this paper.. For some time we have been acutely aware of the criticism being levelled at qualitative research for its failure to look forward and help develop truly ground-breaking ideas. The criticism is not without foundation. Too much qualitative research which purports to be creative and insightful is in fact feedback-driven. There is often a lack of interpretation of response and a fear of overstepping the boundaries of pure research. However, interpretation is not the only problem. A key issue is the research sample we choose. Often we are constrained by the inherently conservative nature of consumers. If mainstream consumers are our primary resource for exploring new territory and new ideas we are unlikely to facilitate a genuinely new and exciting creative process. As Hamel and Prahalad state in the widely read Competing for the Future, customers are notoriously lacking in foresight. If qualitative research wishes to compete for the future it must confront this issue. The recent paper by Janet Coates of United Distillers & Vintners issued a timely warning: The fact that the managing director of a major company has criticised research and suggested it may sometimes get in the way of innovation is a warning signal that the research industry should heed.

Prediction and Innovation

This said, let us not confuse prediction and the facilitation of innovation. These two concepts are very different indeed, one essentially passive and the other unambiguously proactive. We would question the value of crystal ball gazing predictive research with marketers running scared of the future, helpless pawns on the chess board of time. This represents a fruitless quest for knowledge. Such knowledge is not empowering. Many aspects of the future brand and advertising landscape are unpredictable, so let us not pretend otherwise. Who can predict the nature and impact of a new product launch; one which creates a new category or repositions the pre-existing brands? Who

Choose Change can predict the influence of a powerful new advertising execution? The truth is we cannot. A major part of creativity is surprise or unpredictability. We should expect to be surprised.

Bringing about the Unpredictable

We may not be able to predict the future in absolute terms but we can enable our clients to themselves surprise and bring about the unpredictable. Research which equips the marketer with an understanding of the direction of change and how it will affect the values, ambitions and aspirations of the future is, we would argue, forward-looking research at its best. Research of this nature invests the marketer with the knowledge, understanding and intuition which allows him to deliver ideas ahead of today but right for the future. Our interest is in evaluating tomorrows products and ideas on tomorrows terms rather than killing off great ideas today because they are ahead of their time. The fact that the Sony Walkman and the famous drinks brand Baileys failed the research test should be a sobering thought for all of us. The power of knowledge is in its ability to anticipate the future.

RESEARCH DESIGNED FOR THE FUTURE

Towards a Definition of Leading Edge
It is our belief that identifying, understanding and working with leading edge consumers on a qualitative basis is the key to predictive or forward-looking research, the key to releasing the power of knowledge. So what do we mean by leading edge? It is a term both misunderstood and abused, often considered interchangeable with the descriptors style leader or opinion leader. It is most frequently used within the context of the youth market and yet its relevance is not the unique preserve of youth brands. The term leading edge derives from the foremost edge of an aircrafts wing. It is the part of the wing which gets there first with the certainty that the bulk of the wing will follow. A leading edge consumer is worthy of the name only if he in some way represents the consumer of the future. He gets there first with the certainty that the mainstream will follow. The qualification of in some way is extremely important. In many ways these consumers may be very different from the brand target of the future but they are offering an insight into the future which the marketer would otherwise miss. Some aspect of that consumers behaviour, attitudes, perception of design or advertising must be indicative of the future consumer. We are searching for insights, not hard facts.

Maggie Collier, Kirsty Fuller

Leading Edge Research Requires a Leap of Faith

Choosing a research sample in this way represents a large leap of faith for many. It may mean talking to consumers who do not actually consume the brand under study nor are very likely to in the future and yet represent an extremely valuable resource. Perhaps we can help marketers with this leap of faith by dispelling two leading edge myths. First is the belief that leading edge equates with being cool and trendy. It may do this, depending on the brand and category with which we are dealing, but in the majority of instances this is far from the truth. Second is the assumption that the leading edge exists as an entity relevant across categories and independent of the issues under exploration. This is clearly not the case. Life is just not that simple. Leading edge for a computer games manufacturer is not leading edge for a sportswear brand. Leading edge for a food brand is not leading edge for a clothing label. Leading edge for a vodka brand is not leading edge for a malt whisky. This is such an important issue. Moreover someone who is recruited as leading edge for one category is likely to be very much in the mainstream in others.

Understanding the Value of the Leading Edge

We talk to these leading edge consumers to gain a perspective on the future. There are two ways in which we do this. If the target has been correctly identified and recruited they will be ahead of the game in some way, be it in their use of a product, their attitude towards a brands advertising or some aspect of their lifestyle. Thus we are looking at how they live the future. They are also at the forefront of some kind of change and are consequently perceptive of the direction and nature of shifting relationships with products and brands. They are looking to the future in a way that the mainstream consumer is not. In researching this target it is important, we believe, to harness these two characteristics.

A Proactive Approach to Sample Design

You will note from the above that this is a proactive approach to target definition. In a very real way the managers of brands can choose whom they want as their future consumers. It is radically different from the method described by Holder and Young. They advocate the placing of an advertisement highlighting the category of interest and waiting to see who responds. We would argue that such a method is appropriate only for a very specific type of project.

Choose Change In much of the work in which we are involved we are trying to change the identity and rules of a category, to make it exciting and involving for a consumer target who currently show little or no interest. In this instance the research target cannot be self-selecting. Instead it is those people with a vision and strategy for a brand who must choose those consumers who are their leading edge. Think about what Absolut achieved in the vodka category. Think about how Levis came to life following the famous Launderette execution in the mid-1980s. Think about how Hagen-Dazs transformed the premium ice-cream category. None of these marketing success stories came about by targeting the existing category franchise. It was all about vision.

Tailoring the Leading Edge Target to the Research Task

A brand must also choose its research target according to the subject under study. For example, it can be extremely valuable to recruit a design articulate target (e.g. photographers, web-site designers, people involved in film or TV production) to explore new packaging designs. Why? Not because they are the likely core target of the product in the future but because they have an acute sensitivity to direction of change in the language of design. They are able to identify what will soon feel pass and what feels new, different and right for the future. We have been involved in research of this nature in the alcoholic ready-todrink sector. Having identified potentially exciting new design ideas, and importantly understood why they are interesting, we were able to interpret the mainstream response within a framework of leading edge learning. We were able to probe intelligently and look for resonance with the leading edge response. It is an exciting way to work, empowered by insights into the future.

Levis and its Leading Edge Targets

Another example of tailoring the research target to the specific objective can be found in Levis. When we conduct advertising research on their behalf we speak to young (15 - 24 year old) Early Adopters: people who are active participants in the youth scene. They are tuned into the latest developments in music and fashion. They are extremely aware of which brands are on the up, or just on the turn. They are film and advertising literate, often aspiring to a future in self-employed, creative professions. Such a target has recently been less involved in denim and less likely to be actively wearing the Levis brand. However, they have a perspective on the brand and its advertising which has consistently proved to be twelve to eighteen months ahead of the mainstream core franchise. This resource enables the brand to lead and not

Maggie Collier, Kirsty Fuller follow, and to lead in a direction which resonates with consumers. This is one leading edge target with which we work. However when we are faced with a very different research challenge, such as helping to develop Levis future web site strategy, we turn to a different leading edge. We are seeking Internet involvement and even web site design experience. We are also looking to those who embraced the web earliest and who are therefore integrating the new medium into the routine of everyday life, leaving behind the initial novelty factor. In Internet terms they are ahead of the mainstream. If the research task were more product-related we might look to a different target again. The key issue across these three Levis examples is that the core franchise is not the research target, despite the mainstream character of the brand. The key to the future is not found in knowledge of the present.

The Microsoft Example

Moving away from the youth market, we can use the example of the global software giant Microsoft. In endeavouring to understand how the relationship with technology is evolving, the company undertakes research among leading edge users defined not by job title or technical know-how (e.g. IT manager). Instead, Microsoft looks to the nature of the company he/she works in, the style of working and the involvement with and appreciation of the benefits computer and software technology can bring. This means thinking about the shape of the future working environment (i.e. more smaller businesses, more self-employed, greater mobility) and recruiting people living that future today.

A Return to Sample Design

In forward looking research there is genuine sample design. We need to project into the future using the wealth of lifestyle, population and social trend data available. We need to be thinking about the increasing number of single person households, the earning power of women and the changing nature of male and female roles. Such thinking is not just for management consultants.

Investment in Consumer Recruitment

We also need to invest more time in the accurate recruitment of our samples. Recruitment is not an easy task and judging whether a person does or does not fit a very specific definition of leading edge is not an exact science. We are looking for people who can provide insights, and in our experience no amount

Choose Change of attitude statements on a standard questionnaire can identify the right people. We often need to control the process and conduct the final screening ourselves. For example, if we have the task of helping to develop new advertising for a brand with a long-running and creative campaign we might want to recruit a leading edge sample. That sample would comprise people just beginning to feel (although not yet articulating) that the current campaign is somewhat tired. Identifying hints of tiredness requires the skill of a qualitative researcher. We must be prepared to see recruitment of a leading edge resource as a research challenge in itself.

THE DYNAMICS OF THE LEADING EDGE MODEL

The Challenge to the Opinion Leader Triangle
The fact that we are advocating a multiplicity of leading edge targets not only across categories but also within one brand runs counter to the classic opinionleader triangle. This model implies a simplicity in consumer segmentation and a simplicity in the passage of influence which sits uncomfortably with the complexity and fragmentation of our consumer culture. Figure 1 OPINION-LEADER TRIANGLE

Opinion Leaders

Mainstream

Trickle-down effect

The basic premise of this model suggests there is an opinion leader elite from whom the mainstream take their lead. Many marketers are now challenging this model. They are questioning whether the consumer group at the top of the triangle genuinely influences the mainstream or whether it operates in a vacuum in its own satellite world. After all, what do people who define themselves by being different have to do with a mass mainstream brand? Is knowledge of these people empowering or irrelevant?

Maggie Collier, Kirsty Fuller

Responding to the Challenge

We believe that there are consumers at the forefront of change in many different areas. Part of their make-up may well be the need to be different from the mainstream and to that extent they may appear irrelevant. However, they could choose to express that difference in any number of ways and the way they choose speaks volumes about their attitudes, needs and motivations. In our view those attitudes needs and motivations are found in the mainstream in a similar or identical manifestation twelve to eighteen months later. Thus the trickle-down effect is very real but the source of influence is not a particular opinion-leader elite but a wide variety of source cultures. Figure 2 SOURCE CULTURES

Identifying relevant source cultures or groups for a particular marketing task is the key to success.

Different Sets of Dynamics

There are likely to be marked variations by market. For example in a market such as Jamaica, youth trends tend to form in the ghetto and bubble up into mainstream society. In Brazil, on the other hand, eyes tend to be directed up to the wealthy, privileged minority and trends filter down from there. Consideration must also be given to the validity of the assumption that consumers tend to aspire to those slightly older than themselves. Thus, so the theory goes, young teens want to act like eighteen year olds and thirty year olds want to impress their status on others by acquiring the symbols of success associated with established forty year olds. All of this is being turned on its head. Thirty year olds want to stay young and are consequently taking the lead from eighteen year olds. Twenty four year olds, for example, took style cues

Choose Change from sixteen year old skaters. It may be that in developing a communication strategy for a brand whose ultimate core target will be thirty-five year olds we should work with a leading edge resource of eighteen year olds. Whatever next!

LEADING EDGE SOURCE CULTURES

The Big Picture
There is a further dimension to leading edge research which involves going to the heart of the source of trends. In order to understand the big picture and the consumer backdrop we are suggesting that rather than thinking in terms of opinion-leaders we must think in terms of different groups or sub-cultures which are sources of influence. A brand which can harness the insight they provide is armed to anticipate and forge future directions. The individuals making up these sub-cultures may have little or no interest in the particular brand under question and may even be rejectors of it. They nevertheless influence the future consumers of that brand. There is a trickle-down effect. It occurs in a mysterious way. The mainstream consumer may well be oblivious to the real source of a trend. The rise of the Dolce & Gabbana tight shirt trend is an example of this. It was the gay community who adopted this style and from there it filtered to the mainstream.

The Example of the Youth Market

The youth market provides an interesting example in which trends are often spawned within specific sub-cultures. These sub-cultures can provide insights and an opportunity to understand these trends in a pure form. This offers brands the opportunities to leverage and own trends as they emerge rather than constantly playing catch up. Marketers can experience and exploit the power of knowledge. Earlier this year FLAMiNGO decided to undertake a study in London, Paris, Madrid, Milan and Berlin which explored in depth two subcultures felt to be key influencers - the gay scene and sports culture (particularly basketball). Alongside groups and depths, large amounts of the research were carried out in field. In exploring basketball, for example, we visited basketball courts and training sessions, we spent time on estates and under bridges watching streetball, we talked to players and fans. In exploring the gay scene we spent nights out and about in the scene of each major city. Our research team filmed, observed and discussed. They immersed themselves in the sub-cultures concerned. This approach is clearly striking a chord since drink brands, sportswear brands, toiletry brands, toy brands, and clothing brands are all expressing interest in the findings uncovered by the study.

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Maggie Collier, Kirsty Fuller

The Gay Source Culture

Let us consider first the relevance of gay culture. There is a gay aesthetic which finds its expression in clothing and design. The recent glitzy, glam, kitsch trend originated with the gay community. The Dolce & Gabanna tight shirt trend has already been mentioned, and now the gay community would appear to be adopting Helmut Lang. Watch this space. In another area, the growth of male toiletries was initially most pronounced among the gay community - they broke the new ground and the behaviour trickled down to the mainstream albeit with different product offerings and presentation. An increasing proportion of those involved in design and media are gay and is therefore exerting a powerful influence in these fields. They are experimental and open to new ideas, and a rich source of insight.

The Basketball Source Culture

The nature of the influence of basketball varies quite significantly across markets. In Germany, Spain and Italy it is almost indigenous; a mainstream sport widely practised in schools although perhaps more individual and statement-making than soccer. In the United Kingdom, and to a certain extent France, basketball is a more conscious choice of different-ness. Its culture is tied in with black America and hip hop. It has a language of its own, e.g. showboating (showing off with fancy moves) or trash-talking (distracting the opposition with non-stop taunting). Basketball is a conduit for black American culture. Tattoos, striped hairstyles etc. are part of the tribal costume. The influence of basketball looks set to continue. The culture which surrounds it is contributing to the attitude and mentality of tomorrows youth. The quest for recognition, individuality and achievement are finding expression in this sub-culture. The culture is symptomatic of the spirit of the age.

CONCLUSION
In conclusion, retrospective knowledge or even knowledge of the here and now does not empower the marketer to turn the challenges of the future into opportunities. Research cannot foresee the future in absolute terms. However, it can and it should provide a window on the future and moreover should help clients to shape that future. This is where the true power of knowledge lies. Strategic, forward-looking qualitative research requires a radical rethink of research design and research output. We would endorse the view of Janet Coates:

Choose Change The possible rise of consumer insight as a new area of interest and focus might represent a watershed for research, for it would imply a significant change in the way research is approached and positioned. If we are to take up the challenge of building brands for the future we need to think about working with a leading edge rather than mainstream consumer target. We need to be clear that leading edge consumers are not just the preserve of youth brands. We must acknowledge their importance as a resource to look to the future and to release the power of knowledge. It falls to us to think strategically about sample design, identifying appropriate consumers to speak to and work with. It is necessary to put aside any assumptions that the leading edge are simply trendy consumers existing as an entity relevant across categories. Instead we must invest time in defining and identifying the leading edge groups who can best enable a client to look forward and to shape the future. There are many variables involved in defining an appropriate leading edge sample. The leading edge will differ by category and by brand and the process should be proactive, those with a vision for the brand should choose their leading edge. The sample will also be tailored according to the subject under study, whether design, advertising, product development or product usage. A leading edge sample design may not travel well, it cannot be assumed that the leading edge target relevant in one market will be appropriate for another. It is clear then that a brand may make use of a multiplicity of different leading edge targets in order to steer its course ahead. There may be little similarity between these groups in terms of demographics, attitudes or lifestyle. What they will have in common is their value as a resource for looking to the future. Thinking strategically about the use of leading edge consumers also leads us to challenge the class opinion-leader triangle which suggests there is an opinion leader elite from whom the mainstream take their lead. Our view is that the trickle-down effect is very real but that the source of influence is not a particular opinion leader elite but a wide variety of source cultures. Identifying relevant source culture or groups is the key to knowledge and the key to success. Working with the leading edge target requires a leap of faith, an acceptance of the fact that the vision of the future is not found in knowledge of the present. These consumers may neither be a brands consumers of today nor its target of tomorrow. They may have little or no interest in the particular brand or category or even rejectors of it. They will however give an insight into the

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Maggie Collier, Kirsty Fuller consumer of tomorrow, they are a resource to provide forward looking knowledge, a new brand of knowledge. The value of working with different leading edge targets is of both tactical and strategic importance. Perhaps more commonly the application is tactical; using the leading edge as a means of fast-forwarding to twelve months down the line. Does this design, execution, new product variant move in the right direction? The strategic use of leading edge research is even more exciting. It concerns the fundamental ideas of brands and their identities. It is about seizing opportunities and generating awareness of needs. It is about shaping, changing, influencing and leading. It is about the true power of knowledge. If the marketers, designers and planners have a vision of future values and aspirations and of the direction of change, they can use their intuition to innovate. In the words of Hamel and Prahalad: To discover the future it is not necessary to be a seer, but it is absolutely necessary to be unorthodox. Heres to the future. Choose change.

Choose Change

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The FLAMiNGO Source team: Jo Adams and Will Eglington.

REFERENCES
Campbell, Andrew and Alexander, Marcus. (1997). Whats wrong with strategy? Harvard Business Review, November. Coates, Janet. (1998). Building consumer insight. Proceedings of the Market Research Society Conference (Birmingham). Fuller, Kirsty and Rippon, Martin. (1994). Breaking Free from the Testing Mentality, ESOMAR (Prague). Fuller, Kirsty. (1995). Walking the creative tightrope: the research challenge. Admap, March. Hamel, Gary and Prahalad, C.K. (1994). Competing for the Future. Harvard Business School Press. Holder, Susan and Young, David. (1995). A journey beyond imagination. ESOMAR (Berlin). Holder, Susan and Young, David. (1997). Researching the Future in the Present. ESOMAR (Istanbul). Leonard, Dorothy and Rayport, Jeffrey. (1997). Spark innovation through empathetic design. Harvard Business Review.

THE AUTHORS
Maggie Collier is Joint Managing Director, FLAMiNGO, United Kingdom. Kirsty Fuller is Joint Managing Director of FLAMiNGO, United Kingdom.