Measuring the Unmeasurable

UNSC Seminar - 27 February 2012

Walter Radermacher, Chief Statistician of the EU

Measuring the unmeasurable: stretching the methodological borderlines, changing paradigms or simply lowering quality thresholds?
Measuring:
Traditional: Process or result of determining the ratio of a physical quantity (such as length, time, temperature etc.) to a unit of measurement (such as the meter, second or degree Celsius)

Post normal science

Walter Radermacher

Everything can be measured .. Est modus in rebus, sunt certi denique fines (Horace)
Is this really true? Or does it depend on the criteria and technology used? We apply seasonal adjustment to measure growth rate. Is this an observation, a model or a composite of both?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horace

http://www.mathacadem y.com/pr/minitext/escher /big.asp?IMAGE=fish_a nd_scales

Walter Radermacher

The History of the Vasa

http://ulkotours.com/blog/the-vasa-museum-stockholm/

http://claesjohnson.blogspot.com/2009/11/vasa-ship.html

Walter Radermacher

From theoretical concept to measurable variable

Axioms and validity, paradigms Creative operationalisation; thinking the unthinkable Constraints: costs, time, confidentiality

Breaking the rules?

Walter Radermacher

The limits of our mind

Relevance

Quality in statistics: fundamental aspects

Consistency with theory Which theory???

Quality = Fitness for Purpose Political relevance Who decides???

Walter Radermacher

Measurability Reliability, timeliness, ???

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Recent developments / change in paradigm

New methods and techniques
Access to protected microdata Remote sensing, GIS ICT

Modelling (Intra- vs. Extrapolation) Facts vs. Feelings Specific New theories ?? purpose
Indicators Multipurpose Primary data coherent meso data

Walter Radermacher

Opinion Clandestine Price without market Fiction Measurable No meter Future Too costly

Walter Radermacher

Re-defining what is measurable

Where theory fails: natural stocks, prices without a market Where paradigms might change: quality of life, happiness, wellbeing. Where methods might improve: illegal activities (human trafficking, black market, money laundering)

Walter Radermacher

Society is asking for more!

Where do we draw the line between facts and feelings? Where do we draw the line between official / non-official statistics? What defines the credibility of statistics? How far do we want to go?

Walter Radermacher

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