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AIRCRAFT FINANCE
SPECIAL REPORT
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2012
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Aircraft Finance 2012
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Flightglobal Insight
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AIRCRAFT FINANCE 2012
FLIGHTGLOBAL FINANCE
OLIVIER BONNASSIES: EDITOR
FLIGHTGLOBAL INSIGHT
TREVOR MOUNTFORD: MANAGER
ANTOINE FAFARD: ANALYST
FLIGHTGLOBAL DATA RESEARCH
STEVEN PHIPPS: FLIGHTGLOBAL ASCEND
FOREWORD
Welcome to Flightglobal Insights Aircraft Finance Special
Report 2012, brought to you in association with CFM
International and prepared using information from the
extensive Flightglobal Premium portfolio. The report provides
an analytical overview of the year 2011 looking at order and
transaction activities, the nance and leasing market, and
what appraisers expect in 2012.
The year 2011 ended with an airliner order backlog of 9,556
units, up 1,545 on the previous year. This is a new record for
year-end commercial aircraft backlog. The previous record
was 8,332 aircraft in 2008, while in 2010 it was 8,502 units.
Last year, net orders reached 2,796 aircraft, compared with
1,813 in 2010. Last year Southwest Airlines, Lion Air and
IndiGo Airlines represented 640 orders, or 23% of the total
intake.
The year 2011 was a record year for Airbus deliveries. The
European manufacturer handed over 534 aircraft, of which
519 were commercial aircraft, 27 more than the previous
year. Airbus ramped up the production rates during the year,
notably on the Airbus A320 Family and delivered 412 single-
aisle aircraft, or 80% of its total annual ouput.
Boeing delivered 464 commercial aircraft last year, four more
units than in 2010. With 585 to 600 commercial deliveries
forecast for this year, Boeing is set to approach its 1999
record output of 620 aircraft. The manufacturer ramped
up production rates in 2011 and handed over 359 Boeing
737NG during the year, representing also 80% of its total
ouput.
Airbus is aiming to turn out 570 aircraft this year. It will crank
up the A320s production line, reaching 42 units per month
by the end of the year, while monthly A330 rates will reach
9.5. Forecast for the A380 will head towards three aircraft
a month.
Early in 2012 Boeing reached a rate of 35 units per month
for its 737NG. Production rates for the 767 and 777 families
will be two and seven a month, respectively.
Boeing expects to deliver 35 to 42 787s this year and a
similar number of 747-8s as part of its new development
programme forecast of 70 to 85 deliveries.
On the regional market, ATR was the best performer in terms
of orders in 2011. It recorded 157 orders for its turboprops
almost equalling the combined Bombardier (43 orders)
and Embraer (124) total. Embraer delivered 105 aircraft to
customers, while Bombardier handed over 102 units and
ATR delivered 53 units.
This report includes a breakdown of aircraft nance
transactions that took place in 2011. This information has
been extracted from the Flightglobal Finance reports and
Ascends Online database. It has been displayed in various
ways, enabling you to browse through the deals by operator,
aircraft model, month, value and participant.
Finally, the report offers opinions from appraisers at Ascend,
Avitas, Collateral Verications, Fintech Aviation Services,
IBA Group and SH&E, who reect on 2011 and provide
insight into what we might expect during 2012.
We hope that you nd this information useful and that
the Aircraft Finance Special Report 2012 will be a helpful
reference source when closing your aircraft transactions this
year.
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AIRCRAFT FINANCE 2012
FLEET WATCH: 2011
Aircraft order highlights of the year 6
LEASING OUTLOOK
Top 10 lessors by feet value 9
Top 50 lessors and management companies by feet value 10
Top 50 lessors and management companies by feet size 11
Top 50 leasing survey 12
Value concerns tempered over last off the line aircraft 13
Leahy dismisses A320/737 Classic comparisons 13
Airframers downplay fnance jitters 14
Output smashes records, and theres more to come 15
MARKET OUTLOOK
What appraisers expect in 2012 17
DEALS DATABASE 2011
By customer 21
By aircraft model 34
CONTENT
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AIRCRAFT FINANCE 2012
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2011 was another strong year for commercial aviation as a
total of 2,796 net orders were made and aircraft deliveries
and order backlogs reached an all-time high.
Net orders in 2011
Net orders for 2011 represented an increase of 78% on
the previous year. Apart from the regional jet market, each
segment beneted from a considerable increase in orders.
Airbus emerged as the leader in the 2011 commercial order
battle with 1,425 net orders for the year, while Boeing totalled
788. In the regional market, ATR, Embraer and Sukhoi
booked 157, 160 and 73 orders, respectively. Comac took
in 95 orders for the C919 narrowbody and 10 orders for the
ARJ21. Bombardier totalled 43 orders for the CSeries and
nine Q400s.
Narrowbody net orders increased by 107% on the previous
year, totalling 2,026 for 2011. Airbus led with an impressive
and record high intake of 1,351 orders, of which 1,165 were
for the new A320neo. Boeing received 537 narrowbody net
orders including 150 for its re-engined 737 Max. Widebody
net orders came in at 325, an increase of 59% on the
previous year. Boeing received 251 orders and Airbus 74. In
the regional market, the ATR intake of 157 orders represents
a record for the manufacturer.
From a regional perspective by operator, Asia-Pacic placed
the most orders with 1,111 units, representing 40% of the
market. North America followed with 1,005 net orders while
Europe totalled 364.
Southwest Airlines was responsible for the largest number of
orders during the year as the US operator ordered a total of
260 737s (including 150 737 Max, 73 737-800 and 37 737-
700 aircraft). Malaysian-based AirAsia ordered 200 A320neo
aircraft while Indias Indigo ordered 180 of the A320 Family,
including 150 A320neo aircraft.
Lessors GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS) and
International Lease Finance Corp. (ILFC) ordered 123
aircraft each, while Qantas ordered 110 A320 Family aircraft
(including 78 orders for the A320neo). Other large orders
came in during the year from American Airlines for 100 737s
and six 777s, while Delta ordered 100 737-900s.
In the major cancellations of the year, DAE Capital axed a
total of 142 aircraft from its order book (67 737s, 53 A320s
and 23 A350s). AirTran Airways cancelled 51 737s, while
CASGC scrapped 50 A320s. Jazeera Airways cancelled
orders for 25 A320s.
Commercial aircraft deliveries in 2011
A total of 1,255 commercial aircraft deliveries took place in
2011, including 771 narrowbody and 212 widebody aircraft,
an all-time high for both market groups. Regional jet and
turboprop deliveries totalled 154 and 118, respectively.
It was yet another record year for Airbus, which delivered
519 commercial aircraft in 2011, 27 more than in the year
before. The manufacturer delivered 412 A320 Family aircraft
as well as 81 A330s and 26 A380s.
Boeing, which delivered 446 commercial aircraft in 2010,
also surpassed itself with 464 deliveries in 2011. The
company delivered 359 737s, 73 777s, 20 767s and nine
747s. Boeing also introduced the new 787 to the market with
three deliveries to All Nippon Airways.
FLEET WATCH: 2011
Another strong year for commercial aviation
N
u
m
b
e
r
o
f
a
i
r
c
r
a
f
t
Year ending
Source: ACAS (February 2012)
-250
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002
Narrowbody Jet
Widebody Jet
Regional Jet
Turboprop
AIRLINER MARKET 10-YEAR VIEW - NET ORDERS
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AIRCRAFT FINANCE 2012
Order backlog at 31 December 2011
Airliner backlog ended 2011 at 9,556 units, up 1,545 from the
previous year. This is a new record for year-end commercial
aircraft backlog. The last high point occurred at the end of
2008 when it stood at 8,332.
At the end of 2011, Southwest Airlines topped the backlog
by operator and customer listing with 349 aircraft, consisting
of 150 for the 737 Max, 126 737-700s and 73 737-800s.
AirAsia followed with 279 aircraft on order with 79 A320-
216s and 200 for the A320neo. Emirates and Indigo both
showed a backlog of 227 aircraft. An additional 20 aircraft
are also on backlog with DAE Capital and are destined to
go to Emirates.
In the leasing market, GECAS, ILFC, Air Lease Corporation
and Aviation Capital Group showed backlog gures of 251,
233, 161 and 158, respectively.
In the regional market, Bombardier and Embraer delivered
103 and 102 commercial aircraft, respectively. It was a record
year for ATR, which delivered 53 commercial turboprops.
From a regional perspective, 462 of the 1,255 commercial
aircraft delivered in 2011 were for operators based in Asia-
Pacic followed by Europe with 384.
N
u
m
b
e
r
o
f
a
i
r
c
r
a
f
t
Year ending
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002
Source: ACAS (February 2012)
Narrowbody Jet
Widebody Jet
Regional Jet
Turboprop
AIRLINER MARKET 10-YEAR VIEW - DELIVERIES
N
u
m
b
e
r
o
f
a
i
r
c
r
a
f
t
Year ending
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002
Source: ACAS (February 2012)
Narrowbody Jet
Widebody Jet
Regional Jet
Turboprop
AIRLINER MARKET 10-YEAR VIEW - BACKLOG
Flightglobals
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AIRCRAFT FINANCE 2012
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Aircraft Finance 2012
NORTH AMERICA
2011 net orders: 1,005
2011 deliveries: 152
Backlog (31 Dec): 2,376
EUROPE
2011 net orders: 364
2011 deliveries: 384
Backlog (31 Dec): 1,712
MIDDLE EAST
2011 net orders: 13
2011 deliveries: 84
Backlog (31 Dec): 909
SOUTH AMERICA
2011 net orders: 199
2011 deliveries: 120
Backlog (31 Dec): 670
AFRICA
2011 net orders: 19
2011 deliveries: 48
Backlog (31 Dec): 201
ASIA-PACIFIC
2011 net orders: 1,111
2011 deliveries: 462
Backlog (31 Dec): 3,296
NOTES: Figures extracted from the Flightglobal
ACAS database (February 2012). Regional split
based on operator location (when available).
Read the monthly FleetWatch summaries at:
www.ightglobal.com/eetwatch
Commercial Fleet Forecast
Flightglobals Commercial Fleet Forecast report is now
available. The independent view of the market spans 2012-
2031, with predictions broken down by model series, seat
categories and coverage split between seven world regions.
Find out more at
www.ightglobal.com/forecast
Regional overview for commercial aircraft in 2011
2012-H1
COMMERCIAL FLEET FORECAST
GLOBAL: 2012-2031
Research and analysis from Flightglobal Insight and Achieving the Difference
Aircraft Finance 2012
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AIRCRAFT FINANCE 2012
LEASING OUTLOOK
Top 10 lessors by eet value
Extracts from:
GECAS $34.6bn -0.2%
Aircastle Advisor $3.7bn +14.0%
Aviation Capital Group $4.8bn +15.0%
AWAS $5.2bn +22.7%
RBS Aviation Capital $6.7bn -3.1%
BOC Aviation $6.7bn +8.0%
CIT Aerospace $7.5bn +16.4%
BBAM $7.8bn +11.9%
AerCap $8.5bn +24.8%
ILFC $27.8bn -4.8%
1,550
Lessors aircraft order backlog passed
the 1,500 mark last year, jumping 18%
on the 2010 fgure
The feet value among the top 50 lessors was more
than 10% higher than in 2010, totalling over 7,000
aircraft valued at $171.4 billion
10.6%
GECAS and ILFC remain the two largest aircraft by eet value
and size, but the latest annual Airline Business leasing survey
shows strong growth among the leading lessors behind.
The GECAS eet, comprising more than 1,750 aircraft as of
the end of 2011, was worth around $34.6 billion - fractionally
below gures for the same time last year. ILFC saw its eet
fall almost 5% on the same stage last year to $27.8 billion. Its
eet comprised in excess of 1,000 aircraft. This annual leasing
survey was researched by our data team and compiled from
Flightglobals Ascend Online database.
Behind these two leasing giants AerCap, BBAM and CIT
Aerospace all enjoyed double-digit growth in the value of their
eet to $8.5 billion, $7.8 billion and $7.5 billion, respectively.
Japans Sumitomo, which also owns Sumisho Aircraft Asset
Management, is also set to join the lessors at the top table if
it completes a deal agreed earlier this year for RBS Aviation
Capital - currently the seventh largest lessors in the world.
Outside of the top 10, a number of recent additions to the
aircraft lessors ranks continue to make their mark. Air Lease
Corporation expanded its eet portfolio to nearly 100 units from
36 over the past year. The leasing company is now ranked the
12th largest lessor by eet value. Two other lessors, Avolon
Aerospace Leasing and Jackson Square Aviation, grew their
eet from nine to 51 and 46 respectively to break into the top
25 lessors by eet value.
The total eet value of the top 50 aircraft lessors was more
than 10% higher than in 2010 at $171.4 billion.
AIRCRAFT FINANCE 2012
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TOP 50 LESSORS AND MANAGEMENT COMPANIES BY FLEET VALUE
Rank Total eet value Total Average value Managed only
2011 (2010) Company $m Change eet $m Change $m Share
1 (1) GECAS 34,581 -0.2% 1,755 19.7 3.6% 1,489 4.3%
2 (2) ILFC 27,801 -4.8% 1,031 27.0 -4.7% 1,096 3.9%
3 (5) AerCap 8,447 24.8% 326 25.9 11.0% 1,185 14.0%
4 (3) BBAM 7,849 11.9% 327 24.0 9.5% 6,913 88.1%
5 (6) CIT Aerospace 7,493 16.4% 263 28.5 8.4% 76 1.0%
6 (7) BOC Aviation 6,742 8.0% 179 37.7 -2.9% 739 11.0%
7 (4) RBS Aviation Capital 6,692 -3.1% 246 27.2 -1.5%
8 (8) AWAS 5,168 22.7% 224 23.1 12.3% 134 2.6%
9 (9) Aviation Capital Group 4,781 15.0% 245 19.5 12.2% 143 3.0%
10 (11) Aircastle Advisor 3,729 14.0% 140 26.6 10.8% 133 3.6%
11 (10) Macquarie AirFinance 3,622 -2.6% 156 23.2 -2.0% 470 13.0%
12 (27) Air Lease Corporation 3,517 215.5% 97 36.3 17.1%
13 (16) Doric Asset Finance 2,983 28.4% 27 110.5 9.3% 2,983 100.0%
14 (15) CDB Leasing Company 2,873 22.0% 70 41.0 -9.3% 406 14.1%
15 (18) Sumisho Aircraft Asset Mgt 2,865 37.4% 89 32.2 14.2% 1,260 44.0%
16 (13) MC Aviation Partners 2,822 10.4% 87 32.4 5.3% 1,121 39.7%
17 (19) ICBC Leasing 2,613 28.9% 63 41.5 0.3% 133 5.1%
18 (22) Pembroke Group 2,538 49.1% 75 33.8 9.3% 226 8.9%
19 (12) Boeing Capital Corp 2,399 -12.4% 242 9.9 -2.6% 198 8.3%
20 (26) FLY Leasing 2,209 80.1% 109 20.3 -2.5%
21 () Jackson Square Aviation 2,206 768.0% 46 47.9 69.8%
22 (17) Hong Kong Aviation Capital 2,200 1.6% 68 32.4 1.6% 1,872 85.1%
23 (38) Avolon Aerospace Leasing 2,117 325.5% 52 40.7 -10.0%
24 (14) Amentum Capital 2,100 -14.4% 44 47.7 -12.5% 2,100 100.0%
25 (20) DAE Capital 2,054 6.8% 47 43.7 2.2%
26 (21) ALAFCO 1,928 2.0% 60 32.1 -4.8% 223 11.6%
27 (29) Guggenheim Avn Partners 1,760 77.5% 51 34.5 74.0% 31 1.8%
28 (23) ORIX Aviation 1,427 2.8% 88 16.2 9.8% 190 13.3%
29 (24) SkyWorks Leasing 1,231 -6.2% 98 12.6 27.3% 1,231 100.0%
30 (25) Lease Corporation Int'l 1,052 -19.2% 13 80.9 -0.6% 1,052 100.0%
31 (31) Nordic Aviation Capital 1,010 24.4% 150 6.7 12.0%
32 (28) Penerbangan Malaysia 877 -13.6% 42 20.9 -11.5%
33 (30) Aircraft Leasing & Mgmt 798 -14.7% 42 19.0 7.6% 798 100.0%
34 (43) Jetscape 785 97.8% 42 18.7 27.2% 235 29.9%
35 (40) Investec Global Acft Fund 663 53.8% 17 39.0 -9.5% 210 31.6%
36 (35) Volito Aviation Services 626 14.0% 48 13.0 11.6%
37 (41) Cargo Aircraft Mgmt 624 47.0% 77 8.1 18.3% 13 2.1%
38 (32) Banc of America Leasing 614 -9.5% 41 15.0 -0.7% 17 2.7%
39 (34) GOAL 597 0.2% 41 14.6 5.1%
40 (37) VTB-Leasing 577 15.6% 38 15.2 6.5% 350 60.6%
41 () Hong Kong Int'l Avtn Lsg 542 91.6% 12 45.2 43.7%
42 (36) Santos Dumont Acft Mgmt 512 -5.1% 16 32.0 -5.1%
43 (33) Sky Holding 496 -19.2% 72 6.9 -2.3% 496 100.0%
44 (39) Aircraft Purchase Fleet 482 10.1% 15 32.1 -4.6%
45 (45) VEB-Leasing 476 38.6% 22 21.6 -24.4%
46 (42) Showa Leasing 449 10.5% 24 18.7 -3.3%
47 (50) Veling 405 30.8% 16 25.3 6.3%
48 () Apollo Aviation Group 398 71.3% 47 8.5 23.9% 92 23.0%
49 () AerSale 351 38.6% 38 9.2 20.3%
50 (44) Avequis 346 -2.5% 11 31.5 -2.5% 140 40.4%
TOTAL 171,424 10.6% 7,129 24.0 5.4% 27,752 16.2%
NOTE: Fleet value based on Ascend estimates 2011. FLY Leasing aircraft managed by BBAM, but not included in BBAM fgures to avoid double counting. AerVenture and Waha Leasing included with AerCap. GAAM
portfolio sold to BBAM and FLY Leasing. DEFINITIONS: Ranking: The survey is based on the Top 50 companies with a substantial operating lease business ranked by the value of their owned and/or managed feets at
the beginning of December 2011. Change: The change fgures are based on feets/values supplied by Flightglobals Ascend Online Fleets and Values databases for December 2011 and 2010. Operating lessors:
Lessors are defned as those with an active operating lease business and a substantial investment in feet. Companies that are solely or predominantly fnanciers have been excluded. Fleets & values: The survey
represents a snapshot of feets, including stored aircraft, with fair market generic values supplied by Ascend. Note the composition of feets is constantly changing.
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AIRCRAFT FINANCE 2012
TOP 50 LESSORS AND MANAGEMENT COMPANIES BY FLEET SIZE
Rank Total eet Fleet by category
2011 (2010) Company Number Change Units +/- Wide Narrow Reg jet Prop
1 (1) GECAS 1,755 -3.6% -66 187 1,123 422 23
2 (2) ILFC 1,031 -0.2% -2 281 750
3 (3) BBAM 327 2.2% +7 29 298
4 (4) AerCap 326 12.4% +36 42 277 7
5 (7) CIT Aerospace 263 7.3% +18 39 218 6
6 (6) RBS Aviation Capital 246 -1.6% -4 2 230 14
7 (8) Aviation Capital Group 245 2.5% +6 11 234
8 (5) Boeing Capital Corp 242 -10.0% -27 19 214 9
9 (9) AWAS 224 9.3% +19 53 168 3
10 (10) BOC Aviation 179 11.2% +18 25 152 2
11 (11) Macquarie AirFinance 156 -0.6% -1 14 139 3
12 (13) Nordic Aviation Capital 150 11.1% +15 13 4 133
13 (12) Aircastle Advisor 140 2.9% +4 54 86
14 (21) FLY Leasing 109 84.7% +50 6 103
15 (14) SkyWorks Leasing 98 -26.3% -35 18 55 25
16 (34) Air Lease Corporation 97 169.4% +61 17 69 9 2
17 (18) Sumisho Aircraft Asset Mgt 89 20.3% +15 6 80 3
18 (15) ORIX Aviation 88 -6.4% -6 14 73 1
19 (17) MC Aviation Partners 87 4.8% +4 28 59
20 (20) Cargo Aircraft Mgmt 77 24.2% +15 42 35
21 (23) Pembroke Group 75 36.4% +20 15 54 4 2
22 (16) Sky Holding 72 -17.2% -15 12 60
23 (25) CDB Leasing Company 70 34.6% +18 25 36 9
24 (19) Hong Kong Aviation Capital 68 0.0% 0 18 44 6
25 (27) ICBC Leasing 63 28.6% +14 21 35 7
26 (22) ALAFCO 60 7.1% +4 9 51
27 (47) Avolon Aerospace Leasing 52 372.7% +41 4 48
28 (26) Guggenheim Avn Partners 51 2.0% +1 26 25
29 (28) Volito Aviation Services 48 2.1% +1 47 1
30 () Apollo Aviation Group 47 38.2% +13 15 29 3
30 (29) DAE Capital 47 4.4% +2 16 31
32 () Jackson Square Aviation 46 411.1% +37 6 40
33 (29) Amentum Capital 44 -2.2% -1 13 26 5
34 (24) Aircraft Leasing & Mgmt 42 -20.8% -11 2 34 6
34 (36) Jetscape 42 55.6% +15 9 31 2
34 (32) Penerbangan Malaysia 42 -2.3% -1 24 18
37 (29) Banc of America Leasing 41 -8.9% -4 8 23 3 7
37 (32) GOAL 41 -4.7% -2 2 4 14 21
39 () AerSale 38 15.2% +5 16 22
39 (35) VTB-Leasing 38 8.6% +3 14 22 2
41 (37) Doric Asset Finance 27 17.4% +4 21 6
42 (38) Showa Leasing 24 14.3% +3 10 4 10
43 (46) VEB-Leasing 22 83.3% +10 13 5 4
44 (50) Investec Global Acft Fund 17 70.0% +7 3 14
45 (40) Santos Dumont Acft Mgmt 16 0.0% 0 2 14
45 (44) Veling 16 23.1% +3 14 2
47 (44) Aircraft Purchase Fleet 15 15.4% +2 15
48 (40) Lease Corporation Int'l 13 -18.8% -3 11 2
49 () Hong Kong Int'l Avtn Lsg 12 33.3% +3 4 8
50 (47) Avequis 11 0.0% 0 4 7
TOTAL 7,129 4.3% +296 1,205 5,107 604 213
NOTES: This chart takes those leasing companies in the Top 50 by feet value chart (see p46) and lists them by the size of their feet, as verifed to serial number. Figures based on feet data from
Flightglobals Ascend Online database for year end December 2011. Total feet is owned and managed. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: For more on descriptions and contact details for all of the Top 50
leasing companies plus additional charts, visit fightglobal.com/premiumdata
AIRCRAFT FINANCE 2012
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TOP 50 LEASING SURVEY
Our annual leasing survey provides a snapshot from December 2011 of the eets owned and managed by the top 50
operating lessors, and is compiled from Flightglobals Ascend Online database.
MAINLINE AIRCRAFT: LEASED FLEET
Manufacturer/category Type Value
($m)
Fleet Av. value
($m)
Airbus narrowbody A318 225 16 14.1
A319 11,413 618 18.5
A320 33,189 1,388 23.9
A321 6,423 239 26.9
AIRBUS NARROWBODY TOTAL 51,251 2,261 22.7
Airbus widebody A300 367 31 11.8
A310 97 15 6.5
A330 20,927 346 60.5
A340 2,664 71 37.5
A380 1,949 12 162.4
AIRBUS WIDEBODY TOTAL 26,003 475 54.7
AIRBUS TOTAL 77,253 2,736 28.2
Boeing narrowbody 717 1,130 126 9.0
727 13 17 0.8
737 CFMI 2,814 670 4.2
737 JT8D 1 6 0.2
737 NG 44,635 1,607 27.8
757 2,862 261 11.0
DC-8 42 27 1.6
MD80 236 128 1.8
MD90 15 3 5.0
BOEING NARROWBODY TOTAL 51,749 2,845 18.2
Boeing widebody 747 6,485 159 40.8
767 5,485 287 19.1
777 21,003 234 89.8
DC10 3 4 0.8
MD11 888 46 19.3
BOEING WIDEBODY TOTAL 33,864 730 46.4
BOEING TOTAL 85,613 3,575 23.9
MAINLINE AIRCRAFT GRAND TOTAL 162,866 6,311 25.8
REGIONAL JETS: LEASED FLEET
Manufacturer Type Value
($m)
Fleet Av. value
($m)
Bombardier CRJ100/200/440 973 227 4.3
CRJ700/900 842 66 12.8
BOMBARDIER TOTAL 1,816 293 6.2
Embraer ERJ-145 Family 661 110 6.0
E170/175 834 51 16.3
E190/195 3,410 139 24.5
EMBRAER TOTAL 4,905 300 16.4
Fokker Fokker 70/100 26 8 3.3
FOKKER TOTAL 26 8 3.3
Sukhoi Superjet 100 92 4 22.9
SUKHOI TOTAL 92 4 22.9
REGIONAL JET GRAND TOTAL 6,839 605 11.3
MAINLINE/REGIONAL GRAND TOTAL 169,705 6,916 24.5
NARROWBODY LESSORS BY FLEET VALUE
Rank Company Value ($m) Fleet Change
1 GECAS 21,513 1,123 -28
2 ILFC 14,592 750 +3
3 BBAM 6,403 298 0
4 RBS Aviation Capital 6,401 230 -2
5 AerCap 5,878 277 +25
6 CIT Aerospace 5,255 218 +6
7 Aviation Capital Group 4,532 234 +6
8 BOC Aviation 4,439 152 +18
9 AWAS 2,937 168 +17
10 Macquarie AirFinance 2,927 139 0
11 Sumisho Aircraft Asset Mgt 2,295 80 +14
12 FLY Leasing 1,968 103 +48
13 Air Lease 1,954 69 +36
14 Boeing Capital Corp 1,871 214 -27
15 Avolon Aerospace Leasing 1,762 48 +40
16 ALAFCO 1,588 51 +4
17 Jackson Square Aviation 1,423 40 +31
18 Pembroke Group 1,331 54 +17
19 MC Aviation Partners 1,330 59 +10
20 Hong Kong Aviation Capital 1,188 44 +4
WIDEBODY LESSORS BY FLEET VALUE
Rank Company Value ($m) Fleet Change
1 ILFC 13,209 281 -5
2 GECAS 9,096 187 0
3 Doric Asset Finance 2,828 21 +4
4 Aircastle Advisor 2,557 54 +9
5 AerCap 2,456 42 +9
6 BOC Aviation 2,241 25 -2
7 AWAS 2,220 53 +2
8 CIT Aerospace 2,126 39 +9
9 Guggenheim Avn Partners 1,553 26 +7
10 CDB Leasing Company 1,498 25 +3
11 MC Aviation Partners 1,493 28 -6
12 BBAM 1,446 29 +7
13 ICBC Leasing 1,401 21 +1
14 Air Lease 1,266 17 +14
15 Amentum Capital 1,259 13 -3
16 Pembroke Group 1,186 15 +3
17 DAE Capital 1,171 16 +1
18 Lease Corporation Int'l 1,013 11 -2
19 Hong Kong Aviation Capital 870 18 -4
20 Jackson Square Aviation 783 6 +6
REGIONAL JET LESSORS BY FLEET VALUE
Rank Company Value $m Fleet Change
1 GECAS 3,848 422 -30
2 Jetscape 698 31 +17
3 Air Lease 255 9 +9
4 GOAL 236 14 -2
5 CDB Leasing Company 228 9 +7
Aircraft Finance 2012
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Flightglobal Insight
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13
AIRCRAFT FINANCE 2012
Residual values of the last of the current generation narrowbodies will be
affected by the introduction of their re-engined successors, but to a lesser
degree than in previous transitions from old to new technology. That is the
view of nanciers and analysts when asked about the so-called last off
the line effect in FlightGlobals Airline Business interactive special report
on nance [www.ightglobal.com/iFinance12].
The last off the line effect is used to identify aircraft that are built towards
the end of a production run, because they tend to depreciate faster in
value terms than earlier-built aircraft, said Eddy Pieniazek, who is global
head of consultancy at Ascend.
This is something weve learnt to understand by analysing historic data.
There is a simple reason for that - because aircraft are being succeeded
by newer models, they tend to have shorter useful economic life.
Bert van Leeuwen, global head of aviation research at DVB Bank, told
Airline Business interactive that the last examples produced of a certain
type are generally written off a lot quicker. Weve looked at previous
generations where the early aircraft were depreciated by 4% while later
ones by 8% or more, he said.
This factor, combined with the fact that nanciers tend to favour younger
aircraft offering more modern technology, gives us quite some concern
about residual value performance, especially the last off the line of the
current generation of aircraft, added van Leeuwen.
Value concerns tempered over last off the line aircraft
Pieniazek gives the example of the Boeing 737 Classic, deliveries of which
ended in 2000 with the 1,988th aircraft when production transitioned fully
to the 737NG variants. The last examples delivered had a very distinct
depreciation prole that was different from the early aircraft, he said.
However Boeing Capitals managing director capital markets and leasing
Kostya Zolotusky believes that it is wrong to look in the rear view mirror,
as the market is different today. The size of the installed eet of the 737NG
is so much bigger than any other aircraft that was replaced, he said.
Demand relative to the installed base is so enormous that neither Airbus
nor Boeing will be able to produce enough A320neo or 737 Max aircraft
to relatively quickly replace the 737NGs or the A320 older versions. So
that length of time for replacement means youll have decades of demand
for these aircraft.
Pieniazek concurred that the effect on depreciation of current A320s and
737s might be slightly different, because of the larger production volumes:
On the A320, for the early aircraft of 1988-94 vintage there was a much
more gentle depreciation prole and we think that was because there was
a much larger volume of aircraft and the transition from the early A320s to
the next step was a little more gradual, he said.
When production moves to the 737 Max and A320neo the step in
depreciation from the last of the current generation 737NGs and A320s
might be reduced because the current aircraft have already built up a
large volume, added Pieniazek.
Leahy dismisses A320/737 Classic comparisons
Airbus has dismissed suggestions that the transition to the re-engined
A320neo Family will make the last of the current generation A320 models
less desirable and impact their residual value performance.
In a video interview with Flightglobal for Airline Businesss 2012 interactive
special report on nance, Airbus chief operating ofcer customers John
Leahy said that comparisons with the transition in the late 1990s from the
Boeing 737 Classics to the 737NG were not valid: An A320ceo (current
engine option) and an A320neo arent the same as a Classic and an NG.
A Classic to an NG was about a 90% change, he said.
One of the greatest marketing jobs ever done by Boeing was with the
FAA, convincing them its a common type certicate. They changed just
about everything...so that you couldnt as an airline take an NG and just
smoothly integrate it side-by-side with a route system that was operating
on Classics.
Leahy said that Airbus is going to great pains to make sure that the
A320ceo and the A320neo are interchangeable. You can integrate
them, but one of course burns 15% less fuel than that other, he added.
Youve got two airplanes that are interchangeable, side-by-side, that we
think will be side-by-side for another 20 years.
Of the 1,470 A320 Family aircraft ordered in 2011, more than 80% (1,226
units) were for the A320neo variants. The 2011 year-end backlog for the
current engine option versions stood at 2,089 orders, which equates to
around four years production at current rates. Deliveries of the initial
A320neo models are due to begin in late 2015.
Despite last years order surge for the re-engined A320, Leahy said that
sales of the A320ceo have been pretty good and that it is demand for
the current models that is driving Airbuss evaluation of a production rate
increase.
That rate 42/44 [A320s a month] decision is about the Ceo - todays
airplane - not the Neo. Weve got demand to go to rate 44 right now. What
were nervous about is the supply chain.
AIRCRAFT FINANCE 2012
14
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Flightglobal Insight
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Aircraft Finance 2012
Airframers downplay nance jitters
As European banks struggle, Airbus and Boeing expect other players will step in to help airlines fund their 2012 deliveries
Read this years Airline Business
interactive special report on
fnance and lessors at:
ightglobal.com/iFinance12
0e|very data for Arbus and Boeng aroraft. Protab|ty data for top 150 ar|nes (2003-10)
and IA1A pro[eotons (2011-12).