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You know that the best you can expect is to avoid the worst1
1 Italio Calvino, If on a Winter’s Night a Traveler (1979) in William Poundstone, Prisoner’s Di-
lemma (New York: Doubleday, 1992), 53.
2In 1950, 2 states possessed a few dozen nuclear weapons. Today, 8 nuclear states possess
12,000 nuclear weapons, 40 states are capable of going nuclear at anytime and there is enough
HEU (highly-enriched uranium) for building 240,000 more nuclear weapons. Plus, today, we
have low level nuclear wastes from nuclear power plants that could be used to construct 1
million RDDs (radiological dispersion device; a dirty bomb).
3 Nuclear fusion weapons even today remain potentially the most destructive weapons ever
invented and the greatest threat to global security. See Lifting the nuclear shadow: Creating the
conditions for abolishing nuclear weapons, Foreign & Commonwealth Office, UK.
4John von Neumann’s minimax theorem: as long as the two rational players’ interests are com-
pletely opposed, they can settle on a rational course of action going forward in a zero sum
game. Equilibrium arises from an interplay of self interest and mistrust (Poundstone, 97).
5 John Nash showed that minimax theorem applied to non zero sum, non cooperative games.
Cooperative games arise when players can form coalitions and know each other’s strategy.
Non cooperative games involve each player formulating their strategy without knowing the
other’s strategy (Poundstone, 96-99).
6A game state where it is impossible for the player to win the game. The only options are re-
starting the game or stopping and deciding to play another game with different rules. Playing
an unwinnable game is a zombie situation (Wikipedia).
7 See Kurt Campbell, et. al., The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear
Choices (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2004). The U.S. 2003 preventive war in
Iraq only served to cement this new incarnation of MAD strategy.
8Nuclear war “cannot be won and cannot be fought” (President Ronald Reagan). Today it is
conceivable for a poorly thought-out strategic policy choice, the result of which makes a nu-
clear terror attack more probable could produce circumstances whereby, for example, instead
of global GDP going from $60 to $240 trillion (in $2005 purchasing power parity) by 2050, it
declines to $6 trillion (global GDP estimate is from U.S. Central Intelligence Agency).
9A forcing function is the process that moves a dynamical system from one state to another
state. An interesting game theory question is whether this amount of capital was productively
spent to avoid nuclear war between the USSR and the U.S. or was it instead necessary to spend
this amount because the MAD strategy was inherently unstable?
10 Global military spending has averaged about $1,000 billion a year in constant dollars since
WWII, give or take a few hundred billion dollars each year. The point is that this is a very, very
large amount of capital allocated for the purpose of keeping the world safe from aggression, all
the while starving investments in freshwater availability, wastewater treatment, soil conserva-
tion, food availability, climate change preparedness, development of renewable energy, etc.
11All systems have a tipping point, a set of stresses (an overload beyond a threshold rate of
change of inputs) beyond which they breakdown (loose complexity and cease to function
within normal ranges) and sometimes collapse (recovery is uncertain). As failure proceeds,
moments of contingency arise.