Estimation of The Magnitudes and Epicenters of Philippine Historical Earthquakes

Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169 www.elsevier.
com/ locate/tecto
Estimation of the magnitudes and epicenters of Philippine historical earthquakes

Maria Leonila P. Bautista a, *, Kazuo Oike b
a Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), C.P. Garcia Ave., UP Campus Diliman, Quezon City 1100, Philippines b Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Graduate School of Science Kyoto University Sakyoku, Kyoto 606-8502, Japan Received 17 November 1998; accepted for publication 29 October 1999
Abstract The magnitudes and epicenters of Philippine earthquakes from 1589 to 1895 are estimated based on the review, evaluation and interpretation of historical accounts and descriptions. The rst step involves the determination of magnitudefelt area relations for the Philippines for use in the magnitude estimation. Data used were the earthquake reports of 86, recent, shallow events with well-described eects and known magnitude values. Intensities are assigned according to the modied Mercalli intensity scale of I to XII. The areas enclosed by Intensities III to IX [A (III ) to A (IX )] are measured and related to magnitude values. The most robust relations are found for magnitudes relating to A ( VI ), A ( VII ), A ( VIII ) and A (IX ). Historical earthquake data are obtained from primary sources in libraries in the Philippines and Spain. Most of these accounts were made by Spanish priests and ocials stationed in the Philippines during the 15th to 19th centuries. More than 3000 events are catalogued, interpreted and their intensities determined by considering the possible eects of local site conditions, type of construction and the number and locations of existing towns to assess completeness of reporting. Of these events, 485 earthquakes with the largest number of accounts or with at least a minimum report of damage are selected. The historical epicenters are estimated based on the resulting generalized isoseismal maps augmented by information on recent seismicity and location of known tectonic structures. Their magnitudes are estimated by using the previously determined magnitudefelt area equations for recent events. Although historical epicenters are mostly found to lie on known tectonic structures, a few, however, are found to lie along structures that show not much activity during the instrumented period. A comparison of the magnitude distributions of historical and recent events showed that only the period 1850 to 1900 may be considered well-reported in terms of magnitude distribution. Each earthquake is evaluated for its quality of determination based on the number of intensity reports. Earlier than 1850, the data collected are few and most earthquakes had fewer than ten reports. Good quality reports began to be collected from 1850, partly correlative to an increase in the number of towns and partly to the start of a systematized collection of earthquake accounts by the Manila Observatory. Parameters of these well-reported earthquakes may be used for conducting various seismological studies. Examples of how the parameters of poorly reported events were arrived at are also discussed. 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: earthquake catalog; felt areas; historical earthquakes; historical epicenters; Philippine earthquakes; seismic hazard
* Corresponding author. Fax: +63-2-926-3225. E-mail addresses: leyo@phivolcs.dost.gov.ph (M.L.P. Bautista), oike@kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp ( K. Oike) 0040-1951/00/$ - see front matter 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. PII: S0 04 0 - 1 95 1 ( 9 9 ) 00 2 7 2- 3
138
M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169
1. Introduction Various earthquake studies depend on the existence of a robust earthquake catalog. Among these are studies on seismic hazard and risk analysis, recurrence intervals and rates, seismic gaps, statistical analysis, slip rates and studies characterizing tectonic activity. In the Philippines, the instrumentally derived seismic database only encompasses a 100 year period, whereas a potentially rich source of additional earthquake data can be gathered from at least 300 years of written records. During the last 25 years, a signicant volume of information has been added to the knowledge of the seismotectonics of the Philippines. For example, there are now research results leading to the understanding of the activities of tectonic structures using seismicity, including the determination of the earthquake focal mechanisms ( Fitch, 1970; Rowlett and Kelleher, 1976; Seno and Kurita, 1978; Acharya and Aggarwal, 1980, Cardwell et al., 1980; Hamburger et al., 1983; Lewis and Hayes, 1989; Bautista, 1996a). Results of various geological (Nakata et al., 1977, 1996; Hirano et al., 1986; Suppe, 1988; Pinet and Stephan, 1990; Ringenbach et al., 1990; Deontaines et al., 1993) and geophysical studies that included marine seismic proles, global deformation system, aeromagnetism and paleomagnetism (Ludwig, 1970; Lewis and Hayes, 1983; Wolfe and Self, 1983; Hayes and Lewis, 1984; Cole et al., 1989; Bischke et al., 1990; Duquesnoy et al., 1994) can help illuminate the locations of faults and subduction zones. Some recent earthquakes have been studied in detail (Su, 1969; Morante, 1974; Stewart and Cohn, 1977; Acharya, 1978; Solidum and Sabit, 1988; Umbal et al., 1990; Bautista et al., 1991; Shibutani et al., 1991; PHIVOLCS, 1994), and those results have added to the understanding of their source regions. Recently, some workers have also started digging trenches to learn about paleoearthquakes ( USGS, 1995; Daligdig, 1997). All these data could be used for analyzing the historical earthquake accounts with new perspectives. The Spanish Empire colonized the Philippines in the 15th century. Before this, no description or account of any earthquake has yet been found, although the country was in contact with Asian
and other international traders who conducted commerce in various parts of the archipelago. It was only during the Spanish rule in the Philippines that earthquake reports began to be maintained in various letters and chronicles. The number if accounts increased with the development of settlements, improved means of communication, and the construction of masonry structures to which damage was usually ascribed. Although Spain discovered the country in 1521, actual colonization began only in 1565. The colonization mission was geared towards, among other aims, the conversion of native Filipinos to the Roman Catholic religion. The construction of massive stone churches, sometimes the only masonry structure in a town, was one of the methods used by the colonizers to further the spread of the Catholic faith. The dierent religious groups spreading their respective faiths also managed to keep records of their churches histories, and these included the times that natural phenomena, such as typhoons, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes, aected their respective structures. Hence, the review of historical earthquakes in the Philippines is one involved with being cognizant of the chronological development of towns and communities that are signicantly centered on a particular church unit. In this study, we estimate the epicenters of Philippine historical earthquakes and their magnitudes using areas of felt intensities. We further present additional discussions on how we arrived at the parameters of sparsely reported events.
2. Previous studies In the Philippines, ve catalogs of historical earthquakes exist: that of the work of Perrey (1860), Maso (1895, 1927), Repetti (1946) and SEASEE (1985). Perreys work, which was written in French, described earthquakes and volcanic eruptions in the Philippines from the 15th to 18th centuries. Masos work in 1895 was in the Spanish language and was more comprehensive than that of Perrey (1860) but mostly dealt with earthquakes. It cited accounts especially of large earthquakes from 1589 to 1899. Maso also derived data from the Manila Observatory when it started its
139
operation in the 1860s using a simple pendulum and early seismographs. In his 1895 catalog, Maso also drew isoseismal maps of selected large earthquakes using the Manila Observatory Intensity Scale of I to VI. In 1927, Maso again published another catalog, written in the English language. The contents were basically the same as his 1895 publication except that smaller events were not included. After 24 years, Repetti (1946), who was also from the Manila Observatory, published the most comprehensive historical catalog of the Philippines. He had an advantage over Perrey and Maso because he was able to see their catalogs and was able to crosscheck their references. Repetti (1946) also provided his comments and insights to the work of the two earlier authors. In addition, his work also contained more bibliographic references and was better researched. After 39 years, SEASEE (1985) published another Philippine earthquake catalog that merged Repettis historical data and instrumental data from the Manila Observatory, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and reports of investigations of post-19th century earthquakes. All previous studies, however, merely concentrated in chronicling the accounts in detail and assigned neither magnitude nor epicenter systematically. Some early seismologists (Mallet, 1853, 1854a, 1854b; Milne, 1912) also made worldwide catalogs that included historical Philippine earthquakes. More recently, Dunbar et al. (1992) listed epicenters, magnitudes and damage attributable to Philippine earthquakes from 1599 to 1990. Utsu (1990) also listed historical earthquakes of the Philippines, mainly derived from the SEASEE (1985) catalog. Some authors listed tsunamigenic earthquakes (Rudolf, 1887; Heck, 1947; Iida et al., 1967; Berninghausen, 1969; Cox, 1970; Nakamura, 1978) that aected the Philippine shores. Although many early and even recent authors have attempted to catalog Philippine historical earthquakes, none, except for Bautista (1996b, 1999), has attempted to infer the sizes and source regions of these pre-19th century earthquakes using felt areas. Meanwhile, previous studies on estimating magnitudes of historical Philippine earthquakes were
done using only magnitude-to-maximum epicentral intensity (Io) relations (MIo). Bautista (1993) estimated the magnitudes of 50 historical Philippine earthquakes using an MsIo relation and got Ms values of 6.9, 7.4, 7.9 and 8.4 for Io values of 6, 7, 8 and 9 (using the adapted Rossi Forel intensity scale of I to X ) respectively. Thenhaus et al. (1994) also used an MsIo relation to determine the surface magnitudes of several historical earthquakes using the modied Mercalli intensity (MMI ) scale of I to XII. Using Io to estimate magnitudes poses a problem, since intensity reports may be aected by many factors, including population density, earthquake depths and site response. Another drawback is when the estimated epicenter is located oshore. Such cases are common in the Philippines since it is surrounded by seas on all its sides. To overcome the uncertainties in magnitude estimates arising from the use of magnitudeintensity relations, recent investigators have started employing an approach relating magnitude with felt areas. Nuttli and Zollweg (1974) related body wave magnitude with felt areas of 22 earthquakes that occurred from 1962 to 1972 in the central United States. They found that the log of the felt area (Alog) and magnitudes (body and surface magnitudes) could be related using second-degree polynomial ts, and they suggested that these equations could be used to estimate magnitudes of 19th century earthquakes in the same region. Nuttli et al. (1979) determined the relationship of body wave magnitudes versus aected area (Af ) and also of log of areas inside Intensity IV isoseismal (AIV ) using 41 earthquakes that occurred in western and central USA. Street and Lacroix (1979) studied 37 recent earthquakes in central northeastern USA and derived quadratic least squares ts between magnitudes of earthquakes with total felt areas (At) between 10 000 and 100 000 km2 using multiple regression relationships between magnitude, felt areas and fall-o of intensity. Tuttle and Sykes (1992) calculated magnitudes of several large historic earthquakes along the San Andreas fault and inferred the magnitudes of three historical earthquakes by relating magnitudes and felt areas of recent earthquakes along the same segment of the fault. Meanwhile, Ebel (1996) esti-
140
mated the magnitudes of historical earthquakes in northeastern North America using intensity reports and aftershock characteristics. Bollinger et al. (1993) related the moment magnitudes of 109 earthquakes for earthquakes in the USA and Canada with felt areas inside Intensity VI and VII isoseismals using least squares ts and found that earthquakes with magnitudes from 4.5 to 7.5 occurring in the eastern USA have ve times bigger felt areas than those occurring in the western USA. These studies all suggest that equations relating magnitudes and felt areas are site dependent, and dierent areas must be characterized by dierent empirical relationships. Hence, in this study, we have derived our own empirical relations for the Philippines using recent Philippine earthquake data. This paper shall serve as the rst attempt to determine the parameters of Philippine historical earthquakes using felt areas. Aside from deviating from the use of Io to estimate magnitudes, it is also an improvement on the previous work of Bautista (1993, 1996b) as it evaluates more historical earthquake data. The quality of determination of each event shall also be classied to dierentiate well-estimated from poorly estimated historical epicenters. This is important to make future users aware of their accuracy, to make sure that these quality assessments become an integral part of the historical catalog and also to prevent the possible indiscriminate use of the data without future users knowing how really accurate the parameters are. Musson (1998) had challenged whether it is, at all, advisable to parameterize these historical events precisely for the reason that future users tend to get only the resulting data without considering their accuracy. Since we want to avoid such tendencies, we urge that rankings we have attached to each event be considered carefully by future users.
3. Overview of the social history during the Spanish era in the Philippines in relation to earthquake reporting Before one can proceed with evaluation of historical earthquakes, it is important to have an
idea of the prevailing social history when the earthquake occurred. The rst earthquake reported in the Philippine was in 1589. Prior to this time, there are no known conrmed reports of earthquakes from the Philippines. The tsunami in the Philippines in 35 BC mentioned by Lockridge (1988) has since been found to be erroneous (Patricia Lockridge, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, written communication, 1994). When the Spaniards came they started to organize isolated and small Filipino communities for various purposes, including the facilitation of tax or tribute collection and to spread their new religion. Philippine towns started to sprout by the late 15th to early 16th century. In the center of these towns were found the local government buildings, schools and the church. By the end of the Spanish rule, in the late 18th century, many Philippine towns had their own Spanish church. Hence, in this context, we now can focus on the general conditions of the country when earthquakes struck. Fig. 1 shows the ow of information when an earthquake occurred during the Spanish time. When a damaging earthquake occurred, two persons usually wrote a report about it, the mayor (called gobernadorcillo) and the local priest. The mayor sent his report to the governor of the province, who, in turn, submitted it to the central government based in Manila, where the GovernorGeneral was based. At times, these reports reached the Spanish king, especially when it involved monetary losses for the colonial government. For areas like Mindanao, which was under stricter political military rule until the end of the Spanish era owing to its refusal to be converted to the Christian religion, another report was prepared by the local military commandant; this was rst forwarded to the governor in Mindanao before being relayed to the government in Manila. Aside from these, there were also reports made independently by travelers and historians and which are also found in history books. In our review, we have never found any report written by a native Filipino or from a Filipinos point of view. Aside from ocial reports, accounts were usually written from a foreigners viewpoint and consist of descriptions, impressions and ideas.
141
Fig. 1. Flow of how earthquake information was relayed during the Spanish period in the Philippines.
Another factor that may be important to take note of is the lack of an ecient means of communication. Until the end of the Spanish era there were still isolated villages in areas like in northern Luzon and central Mindanao and in many of the 7100 islands of the country. Therefore, unless, it was a big event, small earthquakes were usually not reported from these places because of the diculty of relaying information.
reports even for strong earthquakes. Sketchy and uncertain reporting of early earthquakes compound this problem. The factors discussed in Sections 4.14.7 were considered in the determination of epicenters. 4.1. Location of faults and subduction trenches One of the rst and important steps is the identication of tectonic structures to which earthquakes could be attributed. During the last two decades a signicant leap in our understanding of the Philippine seismotectonics was brought about by results of new research detailing information on active faults and subduction trenches. A thorough review of the tectonic setting of the Philippines, including the locations of known faults and trenches, was undertaken during the early part of this study. This knowledge is particularly important in deciding which historical earthquake is related to which source from among the dierent earthquake source zones. The results of the review of Philippine tectonics, seismicity and focal mechanism data were used to delineate the active faults
4. How the historical epicenters were determined In most cases, the epicenter is assumed to be located in the area of highest intensity. However, some actual epicenters have been as far as 100 km from the area of most intense damage, as in the July 16, 1990 earthquake (Ms 7.8) of Luzon. In some cases, the presence of tectonic structures and recent seismicity were used to decide the possible location of a historical epicenter. In drawing the isoseismals, generalized maps were done. This is because seas bound the Philippines on all sides, making it dicult to get well-distributed intensity
142
and subduction zones. The location of trenches was further improved using digital 22 bathymetric data from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO). The data were downloaded from the anonymous ftp site (topex.ucsd.edu). The description on how the database was derived is found in Smith and Sandwell (1996). In addition to new tectonic information, a 3030 digital elevation model obtained from the US Geological
Survey ( USGS ) was also used to delineate the faults. The resulting map was used as the base map in drawing the isoseismal maps. 4.2. Locations of recent earthquakes By plotting recent seismicity (Fig. 2), the locations of active structures (Fig. 3) could be conrmed. Recent earthquake data were derived from
Fig. 2. Seismicity map of the Philippines. Plot of recent, shallow earthquakes (magnitude 5 and above) from 1960 to 1995. The locations of recent earthquakes were considered in the determination of historical epicenters. [Earthquake data from the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC ), International Seismological Centre (ISC ) and Harvard University.]
143
Fig. 3. Tectonic map of the Philippines. The locations of active faults and subduction zones were delineated based on recent seismicity, focal mechanism data, topographic and bathymetric data. Heavy, hachured, saw-toothed lines represent subduction zones. Lines are strike-slip faults, whereas small, saw-toothed hachured lines are thrust faults with teeth towards the dip direction. Dashed lines are collision zones. ( The digital bathymetry dataset is from the SIO and digital topographic dataset is from the USGS).
the National Earthquake Information Center and the International Seismological Centre. Separate catalogs by Gutenberg (1956) and Gutenberg and Richter (1954), Seismological Notes of the Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, Manila Observatory, PAGASA (1976) and SEASEE (1985) were also reviewed and included in the recent earthquake catalog.
4.3. Completeness of reporting One aspect in the evaluation of historical earthquakes is the assessment of the completeness of reporting. To achieve this, it is important to know the locations of reporting towns. Dates when towns started to be organized provided information on where reports could be expected to come from
144
during an earthquake. During the Spanish colonial rule in the Philippines, towns developed from a particular church unit. The Spanish settlers organized the settlements they found, and they made it a point to build a church in these thriving communities. It is dicult to determine the chronological development of these settlements as they evolved into established towns. The dates when churches were built, which were readily available,
were used to pinpoint the existence of settlements relative to the occurrences of specic earthquakes. This allowed for an assessment of the completeness of reporting and made the non-reporting of intensities as equally important as the presence of intensity reports. Hence, a non-reporting could mean a low intensity or that damage is nonexistent or not so signicant in a particular town. Aside from a church, other structures that may be
Fig. 4. The locations of Philippine churches from 15th to 19th centuries are shown by the white squares. Early Philippine towns developed from a church as a central focus. The locations of early churches were used to pinpoint locations of early Philippine towns that, in turn, were used to assess the completeness of reporting of earthquake eects.
145
found in a typical, early Philippine town, or plaza as it was then called, were a government house, school, tribunal house and other important government oces. Fig. 4 shows the location of these 15th to 19th century church sites. It can be seen that the northern Philippines had a greater number of churches compared with the southern part, which was an area that was more successful in resisting Spains colonization eorts and remained mostly under Muslim rule. This distribution contributed to controlling the distribution of historical epicenters, since the reports used in this study come mainly from church and government records.
use of tile roofs was banned; instead, galvanized iron sheets were used. This type of roong continues to be used to the present day. Hence, it can be seen that only by understanding the historical context and scenario when these historical earthquakes occurred could their proper evaluation be done. 4.5. Eects of site conditions Using the geologic map published by the South East Asia Association of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering (SEASEE, 1985), the general locations of Quaternary alluvium deposits sites of soft sediments were delineated. Intensity reports from towns underlain by soft sediments were carefully assessed for the possible eect of site amplication. This possibility was also carefully considered in evaluating both historical and recent earthquakes. For example, the towns of Pangasinan, especially those along the river channels, were severely aected by liquefaction during the 1990 Luzon earthquake despite being located several tens of kilometers away from the epicenter. 4.6. Other factors considered in evaluating historical accounts Factors such as possible exaggerations, biases, misquotes, changes of names and jurisdiction, and local history were also taken into consideration when reviewing the archives for historical earthquakes. For example, a mountain was said to have been leveled during the Northern Luzon earthquake of 1627. In later accounts, the number of mountains leveled has increased to two (Perrey, 1860; Repetti, 1946). The number of documented casualties sometimes also depends on the historian; oftentimes only Spaniards were counted, whereas any person of no account was disregarded, as in the 1645 earthquake. The transfer of information from one historian to another also led to misquoted names. For example, the place Cagayan was later miswritten as Camarines (Nieremberg, 1635; Perrey, 1860; Repetti, 1946) when the 1627 earthquake was described, creating a confusion
4.4. Types of construction during the pre-20th century Philippines Filipinos have always lived in wooden structures consisting of bamboo with nipa or cogon grass as roong materials. This type of construction can resist strong shaking caused by strong earthquakes. This could have been another reason for the absence of earthquake reports before the arrival of the Spaniards, besides the possible destruction of pre-Spanish rule native writings. The early structures, including churches, were made of local materials, like nipa and cane (Liporada and Atanacio, 1988). When the Spanish authorities and priests started building tall and masonry structures, the damage began to be documented. In a typical town, the rst masonry structure that was built was the church. A church usually began as a structure made of wood similar to the local houses. As years went by, the churches were improved or rebuilt by the use of local materials like adobe and lime. Really massive Spanish era churches are still found in many towns of the Philippines. Some of these may be as long as 70 m and as wide as 80 m (National Media Production Center, 1980). A typical church had a belltower and an adjacent rectory or chapel. In Manila, local houses during the 18th century were made of wood but the use of tile roofs became prevalent. This was the situation when the June 3, 1863 earthquake occurred. The strong shaking caused the heavy tile roofs to cave in and was mainly the reason for the heavy death toll in Manila. After the 1863 quake, the
146
between two places which are about 400 km apart. Changes of territorial jurisdiction compared with present times also presented some minor confusion. For example, many historians referred to a place called Nueva Segovia, which at present is not the name of any of the present-day towns. A further search showed that the former Nueva Segovia is now named Lal-lo. 4.7. Techniques in intensity evaluation For intensities when no damage is reported, key words were searched for in the accounts to aid in intensity assignment. As a general rule, the following phrases and their corresponding intensities were searched for:
Possible description Not felt Very slightly felt Slightly or weakly felt Felt; moderately or regularly felt Strongly felt Very strongly felt
Intensity assigned I II III IV V VI
The Intensity VI level is also the boundary between the non-damaging and damaging intensities. When slight damage is mentioned, unless other observations or aggravating factors are mentioned, Intensity VI is assigned. Meanwhile, to simplify assignment of intensities from VII upwards, we have also studied the dierences in the descriptions in the structural damage between the damaging intensities from Intensity VII to IX. To dierentiate between Intensities VII and VIII, for example, we found that signicant damage begins to be reported at Intensity VII level. At this level, too, less serious cracks that are repairable may appear and structures do not collapse except for the fall of loosened bricks, tiles, cornices or weak chimneys ( Wood and Neumann, 1931). Serious fall of tall structures such as the twisting, fall, of chimneys, columns, monuments, also factory stacks, towers ( Wood and Neumann, 1931) may occur at Intensity VIII level. Using these, we assumed that when church belltowers do
not fall but merely get damaged, they are still in the Intensity VII level. Intensity VIII level is considered to result in some limited parts of a structure collapsing, but the serious collapse of a masonry structure ( like at least half of the structure) is deemed to be at Intensity IX level. Most of the early churches were poorly built, except those found in more developed areas like Manila and the surrounding provinces. Construction later improved in terms of sturdiness and solidness, and this fact is oftentimes mentioned in earthquake accounts or church histories. Since much important information on the state of masonry structures for each town is not known with certainty when a specic earthquake occurred, structures were all assumed to be poorly built unless information on their structural design is available and could be evaluated. From Intensity X to XII, the descriptions in the MMI scale are more about the eects on the environment and the extent to which destruction took place. Hence, if damage is judged to be quite extensive, including the occurrence of a tsunami, extensive ssuring or ground cracking, then intensities may be raised to these highest values. Reports of liquefaction were carefully evaluated, as liquefaction is more dependent on ground conditions, and were used with caution in evaluating earthquake intensities.
5. Isoseismal maps of the historical earthquakes Using all the gathered information for each individual event, isoseismal maps were drawn. The drawing software used is the Generic Mapping Tool version 3 (GMT 3.0). A terrain map was used to facilitate the relating of historical accounts with topography and possible site eects. The base map also includes the location of tectonic structures that were reviewed. For each event, the locations of towns that were already in existence when the earthquake occurred are also plotted to guide in assessing the completeness of reporting. For each town, the evaluated intensity is axed on the map. Then, a generalized isoseismal map is drawn for all earthquakes that may be evaluated. Although many earthquakes had numerous
147
Fig. 5. Map of the July 18, 1880 (12:40 p.m.) earthquake, the historical earthquake that had the largest number of reports. Roman numbers are intensities. Squares represent locations of towns existing at that time. Solid circle is the epicenter estimated at 14.5 N Lat., 121.6 E Long. Felt areas (in square kilometers) at Intensities X to V and their calculated Ms values are: A ( X )=5715 sq. km (Ms 8.0); A (IX )=21 050 sq. km (Ms 7.9); A ( VIII )=35 544 sq. km (Ms 7.8); A ( VII )=63 314 sq. km (Ms 7.5); A ( VI )= 150 116 sq. km (Ms 7.3); A ( V )=359 521 sq. km (Ms 7.1). Ms (ave) is 7.6.
148
Table 1 Parameters of recent (19111995) earthquakes used in determining Msfelt area relations. Earthquake parameters are from the NEIC. Time is in Greenwich Meridian Time (GMT ). Areas in square kilometers. A (III )A(IX ) are the areas inside Intensities III to IX Date E. Long. 121.408 122.549 121.876 126.882 121.575 120.811 125.410 124.645 126.192 121.080 121.833 122.543 124.502 120.957 121.273 121.172 125.098 121.703 126.625 120.393 125.606 122.348 125.253 123.892 124.445 121.711 120.923 124.388 121.970 122.332 120.981 120.135 122.309 121.397 125.362 123.500 122.665 124.699 121.356 122.012 120.815 123.500 123.973 123.685 121.962 124.770 127.384 124.829 121.067 126.371 N. Lat. 13.232 10.371 15.604 6.946 15.504 18.394 8.047 13.309 7.969 18.808 15.666 10.543 13.954 18.828 19.216 19.134 13.793 15.670 7.529 13.295 9.253 11.269 10.353 12.266 13.045 15.439 18.424 7.601 12.720 16.275 18.831 14.942 16.479 19.945 8.302 7.200 15.069 13.225 17.291 15.550 16.498 7.496 11.946 12.363 16.130 12.845 4.901 14.087 12.376 8.361 Origin time (GMT ) 17:15:29 14:46:38 11:30:51 15:36:21 16:41:25 16:51:20 17:09:04 11:47:41 11:41:45 15:20:18 3:22:13 15:37:59 18:23:03 12:02:59 18:06:34 3:37:20 20:34:50 8:07:33 2:03:27 15:36:57 22:47:17 18:02:51 0:26:13 5:34:27 12:29:54 18:24:18 21:18:58 23:34:01 1:45:27 8:59:23 6:12:53 19:44:55 6:25:06 13:49:29 7:27:00 23:48:07 13:14:21 22:46:16 10:01:07 20:42:17 1:07:15 2:36:24 14:16:18 12:51:42 12:41:48 16:27:05 21:41:42 7:36:55 19:52:07 12:13:02 Depth Ms (km) 37 53 30 41 33 13 32 35 40 16 29 48 33 14 34 52 33 47 46 30 39 16 32 35 23 33 46 11 56 26 23 49 37 34 16 56 12 38 42 15 33 35 15 33 43 22 33 33 16 35 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.75 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 6 6 6 6 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 A (IX ) A ( VIII ) A ( VII ) A ( VI ) A( V ) A (IV ) A (III )
6/10/69 9/6/78 7/4/71 5/17/92 8/10/68 8/12/84 5/23/87 6/13/77 12/17/80 2/25/87 5/1/70 4/12/79 12/27/79 8/11/83 2/27/84 1/3/85 11/9/75 2/13/76 9/13/83 4/5/88 3/26/90 7/23/90 5/6/91 7/2/71 8/25/76 5/6/83 9/22/84 11/27/84 6/19/61 11/22/68 2/11/87 5/8/88 8/3/68 12/28/82 5/18/87 6/22/65 4/15/70 7/5/73 6/18/87 8/28/68 4/24/85 8/4/85 11/13/70 7/25/71 3/31/80 11/18/87 2/3/69 6/7/76 6/19/88 11/13/91
3062 30 456 14 922 24 609 4234 9916
13 743 66 267 95 568 101 645 9536
36 344 126 361 240 891 244 435 49 196
84 472 235 905
19 460 7954 10 780 6638
50 447 9894 12 722 52 130 23 818 43 715
130 942 58 002 21 842 113 437 104 574 109 280 48 380 27 300 194 271 90 019 42 004 145 072 169 832 47 156 73 756 189 980 75 740 127 484 74 608 30 4474 156 061 22 353 62 414 172 831 260 356
27 174 449 743 34 812
157 694 86 885
27 417 8868
89 211 50 412 19 004 29 295 54 422 130 046 18 350 44 867 144 877 56 058 22 314 57 590 23 054 39 508 44 548 213 626 11 882 32 477 106 176 108 722 61 406 62 675 48 258 86 184 81 732 146 042 32 354 75 163 81 118 69 042
16 085 17 311 4136 27 378 24 734 9784 18 719 12 450 9080 49 245 5594 14 577 46 154 8227 40 630 11 993 34 523 24 049 36 137
93 470
215 996
2162
44 147 113 531 298 292
11 206
1452
93 674 222 590 285 438 273 782 180 886 184 164 109 982 811 799 765 016 374 504 181 756
4256
2922 2850
22 284 17 836 40 414
M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169 Table 1 (continued ) Date E. Long. 120.839 120.860 122.117 124.537 124.694 126.480 126.570 124.000 126.657 122.290 122.361 122.052 122.327 124.616 119.000 121.500 124.358 121.899 126.645 121.087 120.309 125.993 124.000 127.000 122.201 121.717 122.787 126.729 125.800 125.000 126.601 126.000 119.000 121.172 124.023 126.500 N. Lat. 18.752 18.231 12.598 12.339 9.775 8.870 7.219 12.000 9.475 16.599 16.882 15.064 16.773 13.477 16.000 12.500 13.752 11.760 7.239 13.532 13.370 12.540 6.500 8.500 16.522 15.761 13.372 8.337 12.200 13.000 6.473 9.000 17.500 15.679 6.262 6.500 Origin time (GMT ) 15:05:21 12:17:56 22:05:58 6:55:46 7:15:32 2:37:25 18:26:51 14:48:30 17:14:54 6:04:00 13:45:54 4:01:44 21:43:52 3:53:03 16:19:30 6:12:36 6:10:06 7:40:56 9:49:19 19:15:31 19:30:09 8:28:03 16:48:52 9:24:34 1:19:22 5:34:06 8:30:52 18:43:45 0:30:10 12:14:45 0:19:47 4:07:36 3:59:34 7:26:35 16:11:10 16:20:23 Depth Ms (km) 24 28 11 19 25 23 59 40 54 34 33 24 37 24 T T 40 18 32 33 50 50 T T 37 37 33 24 23 T 33 50 T 25 33 T 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.8 6.9 6.9 7 7 7 7 7 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.9 8.3 A (IX ) A ( VIII ) A ( VII ) A ( VI ) A( V ) A (IV )
149
A (III )
11/22/81 8/17/83 2/5/70 11/17/88 2/8/90 2/18/91 5/11/93 3/12/15 6/18/80 5/22/72 7/21/77 4/12/70 3/18/77 2/24/88 5/6/24 6/15/28 1/11/82 6/14/90 5/17/92 11/14/94 4/25/72 10/31/75 3/2/23 6/13/29 8/1/68 4/7/70 3/17/73 12/15/89 4/21/95 11/13/25 12/2/72 7/12/11 2/14/34 7/16/90 8/16/76 4/14/24
13 870 17 181 10 592 6538 6212
55 082 46 720 32 109 38 186 84 947 34 694 8038 124 530 67 108 57 168 118 404 120 363 23 687 79 440 38 014 122 903 61 755 26 710 63 880 277 954 50 062 187 674 248 908 202 007 48 086 81 997 60 604 82 574 246 260 101 955 196 000 316 524 1 028 780
133 625 169 164 85 660 141 112
241 770 568 730 151 492
365 410
251 752 34 370 214 464 146 974 242 991 421 120 66 936 212 788 169 440 195 636 278 335 78 421 157 553 621 494 111 372 357 658 594 676 418 838 138 571 192 468 178 858 253 106 497 110 194 920 416 736 503 488 2 185 551 424 223 216 248 356 776 369 188 745 478 165 596 1 125 508 209 087 558 479 266 580 97 929
447 768
2264
29 886 42 779
1183
2136 5007
8178 18 151 56 480 16 848 8524 12 250 99 300 24 156 72 345 65 890 75 404 26 530 14 092 24 194 28 500 55 266 48 490 91 632 87 508 174 815 330 670
2854
20 108 4659 862
538 108 643 240 337 988
2452 11 122 8089
8546 42 270 8143 14 916
3251 20 454 6838 8413 10 616 57 726
8307
311 072 382 723 371 656 567 640 816 528 377 188
669 387 567 677
677 955
32 786 28 345 55 767 158 934
758 523 3 847 430
1 763 558 6 248 854
reports, some had only one or two reports; in spite of this, they were also evaluated if some damage was attributed to those places and if the reports were proximal to an established active structure, e.g. like the Philippine Fault or Philippine Trench. The large uncertainty due to such under-reported events is addressed in the succeeding sections. Fig. 5 shows the isoseismal map of one of the well-described and largest historical earthquakes, the July 18, 1880 earthquake of Luzon. This earthquake had more than 100 intensity reports. The same style of drawing the isoseismal maps
was done for each of the 485 historical events studied.
6. How magnitudes were determined After drawing the isoseismal maps, their magnitudes were estimated using the newly determined magnitudefelt area relations, as described in Section 7.
150
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
Fig. 6. Ms versus felt area relations for Intensities III to IX for Philippine earthquake data from 19111995. Ms values from NEIC. Intensity values were evaluated from reports of investigations and previous earthquake catalogs. All depths are shallow. Refer to Table 1 for the detailed earthquake parameters used. Lines shows the linear ts.
7. Material studied 7.1. Recent events A total of 86 well-described earthquakes from 1911 to 1995 were selected as the calibrating earthquakes for this study. Table 1 lists these earthquakes and their parameters. All events are shallow and had an Ms between 4.6 and 8.3. Surface magnitude values and depths were taken from the
NEIC. Intensities were evaluated from eld investigation reports and earthquake catalogs. The generalized isoseismals were drawn for each of these earthquakes using the 1931 MMI scale. Then, the areas enclosed by various intensities were calculated. Isoseismals were drawn as generalized lines in order to compensate for areas without intensity reports, especially in the oshore areas. Ms values were found to be adequate for this studys purposes, since only one event had Ms>8,
151
(e)
(f)
(g)
Fig. 6. (continued )
which avoids the problem of Ms saturation at values of 8 and above. Relations between Ms and felt areas enclosed by Intensities II to X [termed A (II ), A(III ) to A(IX ) in this study] were plotted. From among the nine relations, the best ts are those relating Ms with A( VI ), A( VII ), A ( VIII ) and A(IX ). However, relations for Ms A(IV ) and MsA( V ) include most data points. Relations for MsA( X ) and MsA(II ) were not included because of too few data points. Fig. 6ag shows plots of Msfelt area relations for Intensities III to IX. The resulting equations are: Ms=1.42[ log A(III )]1.48
R 2 =0.63 n=25 for Int. III Ms=1.48[ log A(IV )]1.53 R 2 =0.61 n=60 for Int. IV Ms=1.36[ log A( V )]0.40 R 2 =0.63 n=71 for Int. V Ms=1.30[ log A( VI )]+0.48 R 2 =0.70 n=67 for Int. VI Ms=0.83[ log A( VII )]+3.43
152
Table 2 Estimated epicenters and magnitudes of Philippine historical earthquakes. Time is local time (GMT+8). A blank entry means the data are unknown Year 1608 1619 1621 1627 1636 1645 1658 1665 1675 1677 1687 1688 1721 1730 1743 1750 1771 1787 1796 1808 1811 1824 1828 1830 1839 1840 1852 1852 1852 1861 1861 1861 1861 1861 1862 1862 1862 1862 1862 1862 1862 1862 1862 1862 1862 1862 1862 1862 1862 1862 1863 1863 Month/day 1203 1130 1200 900 1221 1130 819 325 300 1207 919 1019 114 112 310 201 712 1105 1005 1026 1109 118 227 322 916 925 1224 630 723 812 830 925 304 531 713 804 807 908 908 908 908 909 912 922 922 922 923 1029 603 611 Hr Min. N. Lat. 11.10 18.50 11.70 18.70 7.40 15.60 14.65 12.75 13.20 14.50 16.90 16.95 18.65 14.10 14.10 13.50 14.55 11.05 16.10 7.35 13.55 14.20 13.70 14.30 16.95 12.95 14.30 13.35 13.85 8.25 13.50 13.50 13.30 13.30 13.75 17.95 15.65 18.10 17.60 17.90 17.60 17.60 17.60 17.50 17.65 13.40 13.35 13.05 13.30 14.10 14.55 13.10 E. Long. 124.80 121.60 122.10 121.80 123.60 121.20 121.10 125.60 121.35 119.50 122.20 122.20 121.70 122.10 121.45 123.10 121.15 122.25 120.50 121.65 123.10 121.90 119.50 121.85 120.65 123.85 120.05 123.30 120.90 127.05 123.10 123.10 123.05 123.45 120.40 121.15 121.50 120.80 121.50 120.50 121.10 121.10 121.10 121.05 121.65 122.65 122.75 123.00 122.95 121.20 120.90 123.00 Ms 5.0 8.0 7.2 7.5 6.5 7.9 5.7 6.7 6.0 7.3 6.9 7.5 6.9 6.9 6.6 4.5 5.0 7.4 6.9 5.7 6.7 7.4 6.6 6.3 6.9 6.8 7.6 4.8 5.1 6.0 4.1 4.6 5.9 4.5 6.1 5.3 5.8 4.5 5.1 6.2 3.8 4.5 4.5 4.7 5.2 4.9 5.1 5.4 6.0 4.0 6.5 4.9 No. of reports 2 9 4 3 4 5 3 1 3 4 2 3 5 2 9 1 2 11 9 1 9 5 2 3 5 5 35 3 8 1 2 1 5 2 5 2 2 3 5 8 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 2 8 2 39 1 Quality C B C C C B C C C C C C B C B C C A B C B B C C B B A C B C C C B C B C C C B B C C C C C C C C B C A C
16
4 12 19 5 11
0 30 0 30 30
11 9 11 12 22 6
0 0 0 0 45 0
10 9 12 0 10 14 16 12 23 15 20 9 13 8 18 18 19 19 21 22 1 14 16 16 20 16 16 11 7
30 15 0 30 30 0 30 25 15 30 57 30 5 0 10 30 0 5 30 0 0 45 0 17 58 10 0 25 0
M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169 Table 2 (continued ) Year 1863 1863 1863 1863 1863 1863 1863 1863 1864 1864 1864 1864 1864 1865 1865 1865 1865 1865 1866 1866 1866 1866 1866 1866 1866 1866 1866 1866 1867 1867 1867 1867 1867 1867 1867 1867 1867 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1869 1869 1869 1869 1869 1869 1869 Month/day 712 729 731 811 927 928 1011 1119 103 712 713 1013 1206 415 1003 1019 1126 1224 114 413 415 628 709 727 1027 1118 1124 1228 107 110 204 223 226 316 719 815 1226 114 219 226 404 605 629 730 822 1020 1115 215 429 710 816 1001 1004 1023 Hr 23 18 18 22 3 9 18 9 4 20 16 3 12 6 14 20 23 20 19 8 6 13 9 2 19 3 5 21 12 1 9 7 18 5 6 13 1 21 0 5 19 5 Min. 30 30 0 40 5 0 0 0 45 20 0 45 30 20 30 21 30 30 50 0 15 0 30 44 0 0 8 15 45 6 0 15 30 0 48 30 0 45 11 30 55 30 N. Lat. 16.35 17.60 17.15 16.65 11.25 12.20 13.10 7.25 6.00 14.20 17.15 11.25 12.35 17.15 16.60 13.60 13.50 17.60 12.45 17.50 13.50 18.05 15.35 17.60 13.10 17.60 18.25 18.10 13.50 10.70 13.55 7.35 17.25 18.15 14.30 13.55 11.95 13.50 8.50 15.20 11.30 10.45 10.45 18.30 13.50 17.20 11.90 7.40 7.05 14.70 12.40 14.25 15.70 14.05 E. Long. 120.75 120.75 120.60 120.95 124.55 123.90 123.05 125.90 124.10 121.90 121.05 124.85 123.65 121.05 120.75 123.60 121.25 120.25 123.70 120.25 121.25 120.45 119.90 120.45 123.75 120.60 120.45 120.35 123.10 122.05 121.20 125.95 120.60 120.55 119.60 121.25 125.65 120.50 126.90 119.50 124.55 122.20 122.25 120.70 121.25 121.10 125.90 121.55 123.80 120.00 123.85 120.45 119.90 121.80 Ms 4.4 5.3 4.6 4.7 6.1 4.6 3.7 4.9 6.9 5.0 4.4 5.6 4.8 4.4 4.2 6.5 4.2 4.2 4.3 3.9 4.0 4.8 3.8 3.4 3.2 4.3 3.7 4.6 4.8 3.2 4.2 4.7 4.9 5.5 5.8 3.4 5.5 5.0 6.0 4.9 5.4 4.8 5.5 5.8 4.5 4.4 5.8 5.1 5.8 4.9 6.5 6.6 5.6 5.6 No. of reports 1 5 3 3 3 2 1 1 5 2 3 2 2 2 2 16 3 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 5 2 2 2 1 1 3 7 42 8 7
153
Quality C B C C C C C C B C C C C C C A C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C B C C C C C C B A B B
2 8 7 3 19 8
0 45 0 15 32 30
154 Table 2 (continued ) Year 1870 1870 1870 1870 1870 1870 1870 1870 1870 1870 1871 1871 1871 1871 1871 1871 1871 1871 1871 1871 1871 1871 1871 1872 1872 1872 1872 1872 1872 1873 1873 1873 1873 1873 1873 1873 1873 1873 1873 1873 1873 1873 1874 1874 1874 1874 1874 1874 1874 1874 1874 1874 1875 1875 Month/day 106 108 211 314 317 510 516 517 523 1104 220 323 528 613 711 711 722 801 1009 1105 1129 1208 1219 126 204 305 905 1219 1229 116 118 118 118 217 303 330 611 714 809 1114 1114 1216 116 202 203 228 413 708 824 824 1016 1016 118 126
Hr 18 20 19 2 14 17 11 19 15 7 19 18 3 16 13 14 5 13 0 8 9 11 12 19 0 19 14 3 23 8 9 19 17 10 17 15 7 2 9 17 19 20 21 5 12 22 2 4 22 2 2 14 23
Min. 45 45 0 0 50 45 45 0 30 0 0 48 0 30 0 0 0 30 45 30 30 0 30 45 45 0 0 48 45 20 56 50 0 17 58 15 11 30 30 15 45 0 55 15 45 20 32 15 15 9 15 15 30
N. Lat. 13.55 13.55 12.45 18.10 13.50 13.20 13.55 13.55 18.20 7.00 9.10 16.95 7.25 13.35 17.05 16.60 13.20 13.95 18.10 8.90 7.40 7.30 8.50 15.80 13.20 13.50 12.90 15.95 14.40 15.05 14.70 15.25 15.00 11.40 16.50 18.10 13.20 12.90 14.30 13.60 13.90 11.85 12.50 15.50 14.50 12.40 18.10 16.10 18.35 7.20 15.40 15.40 11.70 14.70
E. Long. 121.20 120.50 124.60 120.35 120.85 123.60 121.05 121.00 120.85 127.10 124.70 120.70 125.95 123.45 120.45 120.35 123.65 122.00 120.10 126.90 121.60 123.75 126.90 119.45 123.50 121.25 124.70 120.05 120.35 121.50 122.20 121.30 122.55 126.05 120.80 120.55 121.20 121.85 121.70 122.25 121.90 124.00 123.50 119.60 119.65 123.70 120.45 122.25 120.50 121.50 121.40 121.45 125.90 122.30
Ms 4.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.3 3.7 3.7 6.1 6.8 5.0 5.1 5.5 3.9 5.2 3.4 4.1 4.2 5.7 7.3 5.9 7.0 7.2 6.8 5.2 4.5 6.2 5.8 6.4 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.0 4.8 4.7 5.0 6.5 5.0 5.7 5.3 6.1 5.9 5.3 5.1 6.1 5.3 6.4 5.9 6.1 6.7 5.4
No. of reports 2 4 1 3 3 1 2 2 7 1 1 4 1 2 8 2 2 2 4 8 1 10 3 1 3 4 5 2 15 10 3 3 3 1 3 3 6 2 4 14 4 3 3 14 6 3 4 9 4 4 16 23 2 3
Quality C C C C C C C C B C C C C C B C C C C B C A C C C C B C A A C C C C C C B C C A C C C A B C C B C C A A C C
M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169 Table 2 (continued ) Year 1875 1875 1875 1875 1875 1875 1875 1875 1875 1875 1875 1875 1875 1875 1876 1876 1876 1876 1876 1876 1877 1877 1877 1877 1877 1877 1877 1877 1878 1878 1878 1878 1878 1879 1879 1879 1879 1879 1879 1880 1880 1880 1880 1881 1881 1881 1881 1881 1881 1881 1881 1881 1881 1881 Month/day 307 308 312 518 519 519 519 522 602 811 911 916 1101 1104 217 311 612 713 725 1117 226 602 606 704 723 912 1017 1129 112 116 729 803 916 103 514 622 630 1018 1214 227 714 718 720 323 612 711 716 727 730 814 815 901 917 918 Hr 19 17 13 7 3 4 6 18 23 19 8 19 16 4 15 14 20 15 12 15 0 17 8 8 22 5 13 2 4 4 1 10 18 15 13 12 9 16 4 7 7 23 4 6 8 8 13 1 4 20 15 Min. 0 22 0 0 30 0 40 0 55 0 25 0 0 25 0 34 0 20 27 6 22 7 20 0 45 57 5 0 14 15 29 57 55 5 28 10 20 53 40 40 30 0 35 13 10 15 46 15 10 55 40 N. Lat. 17.05 17.00 17.65 15.75 13.60 13.60 13.90 12.55 12.30 7.20 10.90 16.95 17.00 11.10 16.35 16.35 13.35 15.10 10.10 17.25 15.30 15.55 18.45 14.10 11.10 17.45 13.95 14.40 15.10 11.05 12.50 14.60 6.95 15.60 13.95 18.15 9.35 13.80 17.65 17.05 14.90 14.90 14.40 8.90 9.95 10.45 18.10 16.35 13.90 14.40 15.25 16.45 16.35 16.40 E. Long. 121.00 120.50 120.65 119.40 123.05 123.05 122.40 122.10 123.50 124.00 124.80 120.50 120.10 124.65 120.05 120.70 123.35 120.00 126.40 120.35 119.60 120.45 120.70 123.10 124.65 120.70 119.85 119.65 119.60 124.65 122.10 119.80 125.75 119.50 119.90 120.60 125.60 120.20 120.65 121.05 121.85 121.55 121.70 125.70 126.60 121.90 120.60 120.90 120.10 119.70 121.70 120.90 120.95 120.90 Ms 5.6 5.6 5.2 6.0 6.1 4.9 5.4 5.9 5.3 6.4 5.2 5.7 6.1 5.6 5.3 4.6 4.5 5.0 7.2 5.0 6.2 5.8 5.1 6.6 5.5 5.6 4.5 5.6 5.8 5.5 5.9 6.2 6.5 5.1 5.6 4.3 6.9 5.5 4.6 5.2 6.2 7.6 5.9 4.9 6.0 6.3 5.4 5.3 4.9 5.6 6.1 4.6 4.9 5.0 No. of reports 3 6 4 8 12 3 3 1 4 2 2 8 9 2 3 1 2 4 2 1 10 16 4 18 1 8 3 3 11 1 1 25 1 10 10 3 10 11 5 1 35 166 31 4 1 2 5 1 4 10 10 2 3 3
155
Quality C B C B A C C C C C C B B C C C C C C C A A C A C B C C A C C A C A A C A A B C A A A B C C B C C A A C C C
Hr 1 6 21 8 7 15 21 2 8 22 16 17 22 1 19 9 22 21 8 6 4 13 2 12 7 11 3 14 22 2 7 15 0 0 13 18 6 8 15 22 21 19 4 19 19 4 3 11 8 20 3 8 6
Min. 10 54 10 42 34 15 22 40 24 33 35 48 5 5 57 20 25 15 45 5 38 0 8 52 32 30 54 34 34 45 29 58 30 32 46 0 32 46 45 45 3 45 19 28 33 38 26 2 59 25 25 0 51
N. Lat. 16.50 16.40 16.45 16.65 16.85 16.45 16.25 16.40 13.60 17.00 13.60 13.65 13.60 16.00 13.15 15.20 13.65 15.40 16.20 7.50 13.70 7.65 15.10 14.85 15.30 7.60 14.00 17.15 14.10 14.05 18.70 13.50 14.10 14.75 13.50 16.75 13.70 13.90 13.75 13.80 15.05 11.80 15.40 16.30 16.30 16.30 14.25 14.30 14.60 15.90 13.40 13.50 13.70 13.60
E. Long. 120.95 120.90 120.80 120.30 121.00 120.75 120.95 121.00 120.35 121.00 120.35 120.35 120.40 121.00 123.60 119.55 122.95 119.30 119.25 121.60 120.30 124.50 119.70 119.50 119.45 124.50 121.00 121.90 120.10 119.65 121.90 120.45 119.80 119.75 122.90 120.95 121.60 123.10 123.30 121.50 119.60 124.15 121.30 120.75 121.00 120.90 121.80 121.75 121.40 119.50 123.20 123.10 122.90 121.85
Ms 6.1 4.6 4.3 4.5 5.5 5.6 5.3 6.0 4.6 5.0 4.3 4.8 4.9 5.6 4.5 5.8 3.8 4.9 5.7 5.6 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.6 6.4 6.3 5.1 5.5 4.6 5.0 5.6 5.2 4.1 5.6 6.0 4.6 5.5 5.6 5.4 4.5 4.2 5.1 5.3 5.8 4.4 5.7 5.1
No. of reports 7 2 2 2 4 2 7 3 4 2 2 2 4 2 3 8 3 2 1 1 7 2 10 2 3 1 2 4 5 3 6 14 14 4 8 2 5 12 4 3 9 1 3 11 8 3 3 2 6 3 8 8 7 13
Quality B C C C C C B C C C C C C C C B C C C C B C A C C C C C B C B A A C B C B A C C B C C A B C C C B C B B B A
M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169 Table 2 (continued ) Year 1883 1883 1883 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1884 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 1885 Month/day 809 810 1017 109 110 110 322 419 510 512 605 730 803 815 817 818 920 925 1011 1028 1111 1111 1113 1217 1217 1220 1223 1224 1227 121 217 218 222 302 303 403 514 521 710 721 723 724 804 804 909 923 929 1013 1016 1026 1030 1116 1119 1119 Hr 4 10 19 23 2 22 8 22 0 15 0 6 0 15 20 1 22 17 16 20 8 12 19 15 16 12 21 16 21 5 8 5 7 16 9 16 23 2 14 4 2 8 8 19 Min. 17 50 17 22 47 51 49 43 45 14 0 15 57 45 28 30 5 0 12 6 26 0 0 56 14 39 0 30 30 7 0 30 30 52 37 32 15 0 30 59 45 34 40 0 N. Lat. 14.25 17.65 18.60 13.55 13.70 13.70 16.20 14.85 17.60 14.30 8.60 16.00 17.75 13.75 14.05 13.80 13.95 18.15 16.60 14.95 13.00 13.00 7.15 15.75 15.50 15.00 11.40 11.40 9.00 8.95 8.60 18.65 7.90 18.50 13.55 14.55 17.20 8.95 18.55 17.60 8.85 15.30 8.80 13.10 8.80 8.80 10.10 14.90 9.05 17.05 9.05 14.60 16.65 15.95 E. Long. 121.85 120.25 121.65 122.65 122.80 122.75 119.10 119.55 120.30 119.70 124.80 121.00 120.20 122.80 123.00 122.80 122.10 120.50 120.20 121.85 123.10 123.10 125.60 120.95 121.25 121.90 124.50 124.50 126.80 126.80 124.85 120.90 127.10 120.00 123.15 120.20 120.05 126.85 121.60 120.10 123.10 122.00 123.10 123.70 123.10 123.10 126.60 122.30 126.80 120.10 126.75 121.80 120.90 120.75 Ms 4.0 3.9 4.7 5.2 4.2 5.1 5.9 5.7 3.9 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.0 4.4 3.9 3.6 4.9 4.4 4.2 5.5 6.1 5.4 4.3 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.1 5.1 5.7 5.7 4.5 4.8 7.2 5.9 3.6 4.9 5.9 5.7 4.8 4.6 7.0 5.9 4.1 4.2 4.8 4.8 6.2 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 4.1 No. of reports 1 2 1 5 3 2 4 4 2 2 1 3 2 4 1 2 1 1 1 12 14 3 1 8 1 5 1 2 1 1 1 2 6 2 2 4 14 1 2 2 12 14 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 13 14 2
157
Quality C C C B C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C A A C C B C B C C C C C C B C C B A C C C A A C C C C C C C C C A A C
22 9 1 10 22 15 3 13
0 6 0 45 15 21 15 31
Hr 15 15 8 8 1 15 4 11 3 13 22 19 15 1 9 17 5 15 12 13 13 13 14 4 5 5 7 11 1 11 19 7 8 2 4 11 14 2 5 14 19 21 8 3 19 20 5 5 13 23 15 7
Min. 18 40 26 0 0 43 18 0 21 56 50 58 54 25 0 30 0 0 42 14 16 28 30 45 5 45 10 30 0 35 0 15 42 23 32 0 0 25 5 5 45 34 0 30 45 10 40 3 30 59 0 30
N. Lat. 17.55 16.55 16.20 9.05 10.50 16.35 13.75 13.60 13.65 15.35 16.65 13.50 16.00 18.10 10.45 10.40 17.40 11.45 10.45 9.10 13.45 13.70 13.60 13.40 13.95 13.60 13.70 13.65 13.65 13.55 13.35 9.05 13.75 13.55 18.40 13.65 15.35 9.10 14.00 16.15 13.90 9.05 15.35 15.65 8.75 10.45 8.85 13.60 18.65 5.60 5.65 13.20 13.55 8.40
E. Long. 120.65 120.80 119.60 126.80 122.20 120.65 122.35 120.80 120.40 119.95 121.95 120.05 121.00 120.50 122.20 122.20 121.20 122.05 123.80 126.80 123.25 122.90 122.95 123.25 122.60 122.80 122.85 122.85 122.85 122.85 123.35 126.80 122.75 123.05 120.95 122.45 121.55 126.75 124.00 119.80 123.75 126.80 119.85 121.20 123.25 123.75 126.75 123.15 120.85 124.85 124.85 123.55 123.05 127.10
Ms 4.1 4.7 4.9 5.8 5.4 5.3 5.4 4.3 5.0 5.0 4.8 6.3 5.6 4.6 5.1 5.1 5.8 7.3 4.4 5.8 5.6 4.3 4.4 4.6 5.3 3.7 3.7 5.4 4.3 4.1 4.5 5.8 4.1 3.9 4.9 4.8 5.4 5.8 5.2 4.8 5.7 5.8 4.4 5.0 4.7 4.4 5.8 3.9 5.4 4.7 4.7 4.6 3.9 5.7
No. of reports 1 1 1 1 2 5 7 2 2 2 1 22 7 2 1 1 4 7 1 1 10 3 2 3 8 2 2 3 4 3 3 1 2 1 2 5 18 1 2 1 3 1 3 5 1 1 4 1 3 2 2 1 1 1
Quality C C C C C B B C C C C A B C C C C B C C A C C C B C C C C C C C C C C B A C C C C C C B C C C C C C C C C C
M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169 Table 2 (continued ) Year 1888 1888 1888 1888 1888 1888 1888 1888 1888 1888 1888 1888 1888 1888 1888 1888 1889 1889 1889 1889 1889 1889 1889 1889 1889 1889 1889 1889 1889 1889 1889 1889 1889 1889 1889 1889 1890 1890 1890 1890 1890 1890 1890 1890 1890 1890 1890 1890 1890 1890 1891 1891 1891 1891 Month/day 815 818 819 819 819 819 819 819 915 916 1007 1008 1130 1203 1214 1222 101 112 112 121 129 205 211 420 425 512 515 525 526 717 804 819 1006 1006 1020 1210 113 118 206 206 413 413 413 503 523 604 714 929 1222 1229 106 201 315 329 Hr 9 22 2 6 6 6 7 8 9 0 11 9 0 19 14 20 2 13 13 21 8 3 8 13 1 0 2 5 22 17 4 3 6 14 23 21 16 21 6 12 12 7 13 10 6 22 10 7 22 23 2 12 Min. 9 25 0 10 39 55 15 0 9 41 45 10 30 0 45 54 20 5 40 30 0 45 51 10 28 20 23 30 55 45 55 15 10 25 10 14 30 0 4 0 45 24 55 14 45 45 52 9 8 31 4 15 N. Lat. 16.65 18.80 17.15 10.40 18.70 10.40 10.45 17.30 16.65 17.20 7.25 17.40 9.10 10.40 15.05 9.00 9.35 9.40 9.10 9.05 18.30 7.30 7.55 15.55 13.65 15.65 18.35 13.15 12.15 13.10 7.50 17.95 5.90 6.30 13.10 17.95 15.80 11.10 11.35 11.35 18.75 17.75 18.45 13.55 13.60 14.75 6.20 17.90 9.20 16.15 13.95 18.70 13.60 7.30 E. Long. 120.90 121.90 122.15 122.10 121.90 122.10 122.10 122.25 120.90 122.15 123.65 120.60 126.75 122.25 122.05 126.75 126.30 126.60 126.75 126.80 121.05 123.60 121.65 119.40 123.05 119.25 121.55 121.10 121.20 123.65 121.60 120.30 127.00 126.15 124.45 120.15 119.85 124.75 124.85 124.85 120.25 120.20 120.00 122.00 120.50 121.95 120.75 121.20 121.80 119.60 123.05 120.75 121.40 123.60 Ms 5.0 6.1 6.5 5.1 5.2 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.0 5.4 5.2 4.2 5.8 5.1 5.1 5.8 6.7 5.9 6.2 5.5 5.3 6.6 5.6 4.7 3.9 4.9 5.2 6.4 4.6 4.0 5.6 4.0 7.3 5.1 5.6 4.2 5.8 4.6 6.4 4.9 5.9 4.4 6.1 5.1 4.4 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.5 4.9 4.4 5.4 5.0 5.2 No. of reports 1 5 6 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 3 1 4 4 2 1 2 7 1 2 1 3 4 21 1 1 1 2 7 1 2 2 11 1 8 1 6 3 3 7 2 3 3 3 1 1 1 2 5 2
159
Quality C B B C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C B C C C C C A C C C C B C C C A C B C B C C B C C C C C C C C B C
160 Table 2 (continued ) Year 1891 1891 1891 1891 1891 1891 1891 1891 1891 1891 1891 1891 1891 1891 1891 1891 1891 1891 1891 1891 1891 1891 1892 1892 1892 1892 1892 1892 1892 1892 1892 1892 1892 1892 1892 1892 1892 1892 1892 1892 1893 1893 1893 1893 1893 1893 1893 1893 1893 1893 1893 1893 1894 1894 1895 Month/day 404 519 604 621 624 712 805 911 912 913 1002 1008 1027 1029 1102 1104 1114 1121 1209 1221 1228 1228 125 129 207 223 308 313 313 316 322 326 407 520 615 706 712 723 728 1203 125 226 308 401 412 424 508 602 621 914 1116 1223 209 604 513
Hr 21 11 10 8 19 5 15 16 23 12 21 17 22 21 0 2 9 17 2 18 18 5 3 13 9 17 18 12 16 7 8 22 22 22 22 12 9 12 18 16 3 5 7 16 22 7 13 4 16 17 10 22
Min. 30 16 15 55 42 5 0 10 3 5 45 45 10 35 30 30 8 12 14 12 20 50 24 0 56 30 30 58 30 44 55 30 15 56 4 7 30 30 2 39 14 51 24 27 30 30 18 31 20 5 15 45
N. Lat. 8.50 15.00 8.20 10.40 7.60 13.25 16.40 14.00 13.50 14.75 8.05 13.15 8.90 13.90 13.70 13.50 17.30 13.20 13.60 18.00 19.00 18.20 18.50 14.15 10.30 14.25 20.40 10.10 10.30 16.40 10.50 16.30 16.15 15.35 6.65 13.60 13.80 16.40 15.00 16.60 18.70 13.65 16.85 13.45 13.10 12.90 13.10 7.60 7.65 15.30 15.30 12.00 6.30 8.20 13.50
E. Long. 126.70 121.80 125.85 122.20 126.00 123.60 119.25 119.75 121.00 121.95 125.75 123.65 125.70 120.00 120.20 121.00 120.10 123.55 120.50 121.20 122.20 121.10 120.70 122.05 123.20 121.90 121.45 123.00 122.15 120.40 123.10 120.85 122.05 119.65 123.75 123.10 120.00 120.70 121.85 121.00 121.90 120.20 120.20 120.65 123.65 124.25 124.45 123.80 126.10 122.00 121.45 124.10 125.85 125.85 120.90
Ms 6.3 5.4 5.2 5.1 7.2 3.7 5.2 5.1 4.5 5.2 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.8 4.3 3.8 4.1 4.7 4.2 4.8 5.8 5.6 5.4 4.3 5.0 5.2 6.8 6.1 6.1 6.6 5.5 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.5 4.4 4.5 4.0 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.5 5.6 4.9 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.9 7.3 5.7 5.8 5.6 6.7 5.2 5.4
No. of reports 2 7 1 1 6 2 2 2 1 3 1 4 1 7 3 2 2 1 2 2 5 3 4 2 1 5 1 6 2 80 2 7 7 2 3 2 2 1 11 8 4 4 9 8 5 8 3 5 14 5 7 2 6 1 5
Quality C B C C B C C C C C C C C B C C C C C C B C C C C B C B C A C B B C C C C C A B C C B B B B C B A B B C B C B
161
R 2 =0.73 n=34 for Int. VII Ms=0.63[ log A( VIII )]+4.78 R 2 =0.70 n=19 for Int.VIII Ms=0.78[ log A(IX )]+4.53 R 2 =0.80 n=15 for Int. IX. 7.2. Historical earthquakes From the 6679 historical accounts of more than 3000 earthquakes, isoseismal maps of 485 events were drawn. These historical events were mostly derived from the excellent catalog on Philippine earthquakes done by Repetti (1946) and from many other references. Primary earthquake accounts were, as much as possible, obtained from Philippines and Spanish libraries in order to avoid misquotation, inaccuracies and exaggerations.
8. Results and analyses The epicenters and magnitudes of 485 historical earthquakes were estimated. The resulting historical seismicity map is shown in Fig. 7. Their parameters are listed in Table 2. Most of the earthquakes are related to known active structures. Fig. 7 also shows that there are more events in the northern Philippines compared with the southern part of the country. It is dicult to ascertain if this a true observation rather than an artifact of the dataset, but it should be considered that a probable reason for this is because the northern part was more successfully colonized, and that the main sources of historical documents are from the colonizers records, priest historians and Spanish ocials. On the other hand, there were fewer churches in the southern Philippines, and the area remained mostly under the non-Christian religion and was not fully colonized. Records from Muslim mosques and from nearby Southeast Asian countries could be potential future sources of additional historical earthquake information. There is also a notable lack of historical earthquakes coming from the eastern subduction zone, especially the Philippine TrenchEast Luzon Trough region, despite the intense seismicity it has
exhibited during the recent instrumental period. This may be explained by the lack of settlements and structures that could be damaged on the eastern Philippine shores. Such conditions prevail even now, as evidenced by the low damage incurred by earthquakes originating from the Philippine Trench region during the 1989 and 1992 earthquakes. On the other hand, based on earthquake eects of the August 2, 1968 earthquake in Casiguran and the April 7, 1970 earthquake in Baler, earthquakes from the East Luzon Trough Casiguran Fault source region are felt widely and can cause damage in areas more than 100 km away. The possible eect of attenuation for the east Philippine source region, therefore, has to be studied further to assess the real reason for the lack of reports. Some historical earthquakes are being related in this study to source regions that have not ruptured during the instrumented period. For example, the sparsely reported August 20, 1658 earthquake may have been an event possibly related to the activity of the east Valley Fault, a fault system nearest to Metro Manila. A local fault west of Banahaw Volcano probably moved and triggered the earthquake on January 12, 1743, causing the collapse of the volcanos crater lake. Intensity was high in the epicentral area but the overall intensity reports were limited in extent. In fact, there was no report from Manila, which is less than 100 km away. Both faults have shown no recent activity of a similar nature during the instrumented period. Meanwhile, by plotting the magnitude distribution of historical events against that of the 1951 1997 period (Fig. 8) we nd that only the 1851 1900 historical period may be considered as a wellreported period, as the number of its magnitude 5.6 to 7.5 earthquakes approaches the number of events found in the 19511997 recent catalog. Not surprisingly, the events with magnitudes between 5.1 and 5.5 are not that well reported, as expected for smaller events. Meanwhile, the number of earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 7.5 does not approach the same numbers in the recent catalog. This suggests that either some magnitudes in the 18511900 period were underestimated due to poor reporting or that there were really few large magnitude events during this period.
162
Fig. 7. Locations of the epicenters of the 485 historical earthquakes determined in this study. Circles show the location of epicenters and are sized according to magnitude.
Fig. 9 shows the plot of the number of earthquakes per 50 year interval. It shows a correlative increase in the number of quakes with the increase in the number of towns. However, the period from 1701 to 1850 shows a very low number of earthquakes despite the increase in the number of towns. This could be interpreted as a period of few earthquakes or may be due to few available reports. Signicantly, the period when the decline in the number of earthquakes was reported coincides with
the expulsion of the Jesuit order from the Philippine church scene. The Jesuit order was the main collector of scientic information, and in fact was the group that organized the Manila Observatory. The increase in earthquake reports during the 1851 1900 period, although it may be attributed to the increase in number of towns starting around 1850, may also be related to the return of the Jesuits to the Philippines and the establishment of the Manila Observatory in the 1850s.
163
Fig. 8. Plot of the number of earthquake reports and the number of towns per 50 year period. A sudden increase in the number of towns is noted starting between 1851 and 1900 (denoted by the arrow) and can be correlated with an increase in the number of earthquakes during that time.
Fig. 10. The number of earthquake accounts for each historical earthquake was evaluated. Earthquakes with ten or more intensity reports are assessed as quality A, those with ve to nine reports as quality B and those with less than ve reports are given quality C. All earthquakes from 1851 and above have quality A ranking. With the increase in the number of towns during the 18011850 period, the number of earthquake reports also increased starting from 1851. Earthquakes before 1851 have fewer intensity reports, possibly due to fewer towns.
Fig. 9. Plot of the number of earthquakes per 50 year period. Historical earthquakes are only well reported after 1850. Prior to this, very few earthquakes are found. In the 18511900 period the number of magnitude 5.1 to 5.5 events is below the number of similar magnitude events in the 19511997 period.
earthquakes with time. The plot shows that earthquakes earlier than 1850 were nearly all ranked as quality B or C with one quality A event. Most events with magnitudes 5.0 and below have quality C, very few had quality B and not one had quality A. Meanwhile, magnitudes of quality A events varied from 5.1 to 7.6. Earthquakes with good quality parameters may be used for conducting seismic studies requiring a longer database. Although Musson (1998) has cautioned against the parameterization of poorly reported events, such kinds of event were still parameterized in this study but were given a low quality ranking. Four of these events are presented in this study.
The earthquakes were also classied according to the number of reports. Earthquakes with ten or more intensity observation points were ranked as having quality A. Those with ve to nine intensity observation points were assessed as quality B, whereas those with four or fewer points of intensity observations were assessed as having quality C. Fig. 10 shows the quality of ranking of these
9. Examples on how epicenters were determined for some sparsely reported events The following discusses the basis for the estimated epicenters of some sparsely reported events. As mentioned earlier, Musson (1998) cautioned against parameterization of earthquakes with few
164
accounts and suggested that, instead, it is better to make the users aware of the inferences used by the evaluator of historical accounts. About 40% of the analyzed events have fewer than ve intensity reports, making them fall into the C category in terms of the quality of determination. Although the resulting parameters may not be so useful for conducting seismological studies, these initial evaluations are very important for future studies like paleoseismology and for further reevaluation. 9.1. The March 25, 1665 earthquake The earthquake on March 25, 1665 ( Fig. 11) is the rst reported earthquake aecting Samar island. This island faces the northern part of the Philippine Trench. Several large magnitude earthquakes (1897, 1975) have been recently felt in the eastern shore of this island, the most recent of which was on April 21, 1995. The 1665 quake was actually only reported from the town of Palapag in northeastern Samar Island. The description of this event said that there was an earthquake so
Fig. 11. Isoseismal map of the March 25, 1665 (1:30 p.m.) earthquake. The lled circle signies the estimated epicenter; black squares are locations of known and established towns by this time. Italicized names are places mentioned in earthquake accounts. Roman numbers are MMI intensities. A ( VII ) is 10 858 sq. km (Ms 6.7).
great and prolonged that the Indians, young ones and some very old, have no recollection of having experienced another of such long duration (de Alzina, 1668) and indicates that the local people were already accustomed to earthquake occurrences, but that this was the strongest event that they had felt in many years. The lone stone structure (a fort) was undamaged; de Alzina (1668) attributed this to its thickness and low height. The other houses were made of light, wooden materials. The limited damage report suggests a moderate-magnitude event or a source region that is of a relative distance from the town that experienced the intensity. It is also very dicult to assess intensity since there was only one masonry structure. Hence, a minimum intensity of VI was assigned to the town of Palapag. This intensity level can account for the non-damage to the stone fort, to the strong ground shaking and to the non-reporting of towns west of Samar island where development was higher. The most active and nearest earthquake source region to Samar island is the Philippine Trench, which is about 70 km away from the town of Palapag. Recent major trench-related earthquakes (Ms of at least 7) in 1975 and 1995 also exhibited low damage, mainly because of the low population and development of Samar island even at present. The characteristic intensity distribution, where there is insignicant damage possibly due to low population and development, was also displayed by this quake. Had the source been due to movement of a local fault there would have been more damage, especially on the western part of the island where development is slightly higher than on the east. The trench as the possible source region can explain the moderate intensity and could also explain the lack of reports from the more-developed towns west of Samar Island. The epicenter of the 1665 earthquake is estimated at 12.75 N Lat.; 125.6 E Long. and its Ms (ave) is 6.7. This magnitude is small as compared with other trench-related events fronting Samar Island. Typical events originating from this segment of the trench have Ms of 7 (for example, Ms 7.7 in 1897, Ms 7.2 in 1975 and Ms 7.3 in 1995). In light of this observation it is possible that the 1665 event really was an Ms 7 event, but that the
165
scarcity of damage reports limited its felt area. Recent events, such as the 1995 earthquake, have shown that damage is limited when epicenters are from the oshore areas compared with when the epicenters were on land. Another way of looking at the data is that the 1665 event is a possible lower limit of large magnitude events in this section of the trench. 9.2. The December 7, 1677 earthquake Only three sites (Gapan in Nueva Ecija, Bauan in Batangas and Manila) in central to southern Luzon had reports, and these stated that strong ground motion caused ssures to form. No damage was signicant enough to be reported for the same three places. Intensity VI was assigned to these three sites by giving importance to the lack of damage report, suggesting that had there been any damage at all, it was, at worst, only slight ( Fig. 12). There was also a report of sea waves along the west coast of Luzon (Repetti, 1946; Iida
et al., 1967; Berninghausen, 1969). This earthquake probably originated from the Manila Trench, based on its intensity and tsunami report. Likewise, the generation of a tsunami suggests a shallow epicenter and a magnitude of around 7. Using the Intensity VI isoseismal, the Ms is estimated at 7.3 and the epicenter at 14.50 N. lat and 119.50 E long. 9.3. The October 26, 1824 earthquake A not-so-well reported earthquake occurred with only ve intensity reports on October 26, 1824 ( Fig. 13). This quake destroyed the churches of Lucban town in Quezon province and that of Cavinti town in Laguna province. Antipolo town in Rizal province and Manila also experienced high intensities. Slight damage was also reported from Cavite province. The quite signicant intensity at Manila and Cavite are attributed to site response, since both are underlain by thick alluvium deposits. The reports from Manila and
Fig. 12. Isoseismal map of the December 7, 1677 (7:30 p.m.) earthquake. The lled circle signies the estimated epicenter; black squares are locations of known and established towns by this time. Italicized names are places mentioned in earthquake accounts. Roman numbers are MMI intensities. A (IX ) is 3590 sq. km (Ms 7.3), A ( VIII ) is 16 924 sq. km (Ms 7.4), A ( VII ) is 50 359 sq. km (Ms 7.3) and A ( VI ) is 124 225 sq. km (Ms 7.1). Ms (ave) is 7.3.
Fig. 13. Isoseismal map of the October 26, 1824 earthquake. The lled circle signies the estimated epicenter; black squares are locations of known and established towns by this time. Italicized names are places mentioned in earthquake accounts. Roman numbers are MMI intensities. A (IX ) is 8705 sq. km (Ms 7.6), A ( VIII ) is 20 482 sq. km (Ms 7.5), A ( VII ) is 27 046 sq. km (Ms 7.1). Ms (ave) is 7.4.
166
Cavite, although damage was mentioned, failed to state the names of churches or other structures that were damaged. This omission is considered signicant, since if the damage was serious, chroniclers would have written down the names of the churches and aected structures. The fact that they failed to do so probably meant that the damage in these two places was not that serious. This observation also gives low probability that the source region came from the Manila Trench in the west, to which the two places (Cavite and Manila) are nearer. Meanwhile, Lucban and Cavinti are both underlain by thick pyroclastic materials and yet sustained high intensities, suggesting that the source is probably nearer these two areas. It is signicant that there were no reports from the provinces of Batangas, Camarines, Bulacan, Pampanga and from other towns of Quezon and Laguna. The nearest active structure to the heavily aected areas is the Philippine Fault in Quezon province. Based on the severely damaged towns, the probable source is the area between Lucban and Cavinti towns. The intensity distribution is similar to that of the March 17, 1973 earthquake, except that the 1824 event possible ruptured a segment north of the 1973 segment. North of the proposed epicenter for this quake the area is not so well populated, and hence this could explain the lack of reports in that area. The estimated epicenter is at 14.2 N Lat. and 121.90 E Long. and its magnitude is 7.4, a characteristic earthquake size for this segment of the Philippine Fault. 9.4. The March 22, 1840 earthquake This is the rst large earthquake in the Sorsogon area. There are descriptions of only two places where the total collapse of churches, the only existing masonry structures, took place in the Sorsogon towns of Sorsogon and Casiguran. Liquefaction aected a signicant portion of Sorsogon town, when its northern part sank by 1.5 m. The towns of Sorsogon and Casiguran are both near the bay area. At this time, other towns of Sorsogon, such as Bacon, Bulusan, Donsol, Gubat, Matnog and Juban, were already extant, but no reports from them were received. Hence, the possibility that the area aected is limited and
Fig. 14. Isoseismal map of March 22, 1840 earthquake. Time of occurrence was between 8 and 9:00 a.m. The lled circle signies the estimated epicenter; black squares are locations of known and established towns by this time. Italicized names are places mentioned in earthquake accounts. Roman numbers are MMI intensities. A ( VIII ) is 1521 sq. km, (Ms 6.8).
may be due to local site response is strong. Despite the total collapse, only an Intensity VIII was assigned to both places, since reports of structural damage should have been received from the other towns if this had been Intensity IX. Milne (1912) included the island of Masbate in the places aected. None of the other chroniclers did so, however. An Intensity VIII in the Sorsogon Bay area means an Intensity VII or VI on Masbate island and could also explain the inclusion of Masbate in the aected area if Milne (1912) was correct in his data. The estimated epicenter is 12.95 N Lat. and 123.85 E Long. and Ms of 6.8. This earthquake was probably related to the activity of a fault on the Bicol peninsula (Fig. 14). A possible modern analogue is the earthquake of July 2, 1954 (Ms 6.75). This caused the collapse of a church in Sorsogon town, just as happened during the 1840 event. Large ssures and landslides were reported. The epicenter of the 1954 earthquake, as determined by the International Seismological Service (ISS ), was 13.0 N Lat. and 123.90 E Long., which is very near the source
167
region of the 1840 event. It should be pointed out that the magnitudes of these two events are thought to be quite similar. If the 1840 and 1954 events ruptured the same segment, the similarity of the magnitude values could indicate a characteristic earthquake for this segment of the fault. During these two events, the town of Sorsogon experienced liquefaction and Masbate island experienced Intensity V on each occasion.
more data to improve the estimates and also to evaluate more events.
Acknowledgements We would like to thank the help of many people, especially the librarians and PHIVOLCS colleagues who helped in the search for historical accounts in the Philippines, Spain and Japan. In particular, Mr Fernando Rodriguez of Madrid, Spain, who searched the Biblioteca Nacional of Spain, Ms Ma Theresa C. Pascual for combing the University of the Philippines and Ateneo de Manila University libraries and Mrs Apolonia C. Pascual for searching the Eugenio Lopez Library. We would also like to acknowledge our usage of the Generic Mapping Tool version 3.0 (GMT 3.0) software ( Wessel and Smith, 1995) in making the gures. We would like to thank Drs. Raymundo S. Punongbayan and Bartolome C. Bautista for meaningful discussions. We would also like to thank Professor Dr F. Wenzel of the Geophysikalisches Institut, Universitat Karlsruhe, and two anonymous reviewers whose suggestions and insights greatly improved this manuscript.
10. Discussions and conclusions This study was able to estimate the magnitudes and epicenters of 485 well-reported and damaging historical earthquakes of the Philippines. As an initial step, empirical relations between magnitude and felt areas using recent earthquakes were determined. A method to assess historical earthquake accounts using various controls and assumptions, like the locations of established towns when the earthquake occurred, knowledge of local geological condition, type of construction, etc., was illustrated. The locations of most of these earthquakes are along known active structures. A few epicenters, however, lie along structures that do not show much activity during the instrumented period. Good quality estimates for both magnitudes and epicenters are only available from the 1850 period onwards owing to the increase in the number of towns. Earlier than this time, magnitude and epicentral determinations suer from low numbers of historical accounts. This situation may be improved further by searching for possible archival materials from Moslem mosques or from records kept in neighboring countries with which the Philippines was in contact during its early history. Most of the sources of information of this study relied on church and government archival documents. New earthquakes with good quality parameters may be used for conducting seismic studies requiring a long time history of the seismicity, whereas parameters for poorly reported events should be used with care and uncertainties should be borne in mind when using the resulting parameters. More in-depth research from among local and other Philippine libraries is needed to obtain
References
Acharya, H.K., 1978. Mindanao earthquake of August 16, 1976: preliminary seismological assessment. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 68, 14591468. Acharya, H.K., Aggarwal, Y.P., 1980. Seismicity and tectonics of the Philippine Islands. J. Geophys. Res. 85, 32393250. Bautista, B.C., 1996a. Seismotectonic implications of recent Philippine earthquakes from 1980 to 1994. M.A. Thesis (unpublished). State University of New York at Binghamton, Binghamton, NY, USA, 220 pp. Bautista, B.C., Bautista, M.L.P., Rasdas, A.R., Lanuza, A.G., Amin, E.Q., De Los Reyes, P.J., 1991. The 16 July 1990 earthquake and its aftershock activity, Monograph of the 16 July 1990 Earthquake, 81118. Bautista, M.L.P., 1993. Historical earthquakes in the Philippines, Proceedings to the Joint Conference of Seismology in East Asia, Oct. 29Nov. 2, Tottori, Japan, 53, abstract only. Bautista, M.L.P., 1996b. Estimation of the magnitude and epicenters of Philippine historical earthquakes. M.S. Thesis (unpublished), Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan. Bautista, M.L.P., 1999. Seismic hazard assessment of the Philip-
168
M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169 Hayes, D.E., Lewis, S.D., 1984. A geophysical study of the Manila Trench, Luzon, Philippines 1. Crustal structure, gravity and regional tectonic evolution. J. Geophys. Res. 89, 91719195. Heck, N.H., 1947. List of seismic sea waves. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 37, 269279. Hirano, S., Nakata, T., Sangawa, A., 1986. Fault topography and Quaternary faulting along the Philippine Fault Zone, central Luzon, the Philippines. J. Geogr. 95, 123. Iida, K., Cox, D.C., Pararas-Carayannis, G., 1967. Preliminary catalog of tsunamis occurring in the Pacic Ocean. Report no. 5. HIG-67-10. International Tsunami Information Center. The State of Hawaii and Oce of Naval Research under contract no. Nonr-3748 (03). Lewis, S.D., Hayes, D.E., 1983. The tectonics of northward propagating subduction along eastern Luzon, Philippine Islands. In: Hayes, D.E. (Ed.), Tectonic and Geologic Evolution of the Southeast Asian Seas and Islands. AGU Geophys. Monograph Series 27, 5778. Lewis, S.D., Hayes, D.E., 1989. Plate convergence and deformation, North Luzon Ridge, Philippines. Tectonophysics 168, 221237. Liporada, A., Atanacio, P., 1988. Philippine churches: gems of religious architecture. The Philippines Pearl of the Orient. revised ed., Islas Filipinas. Lockridge, P.A., 1988. Historical tsunamis in the Pacic BasinNatural and Man-Made Hazards. Reidel, pp. 171181. Ludwig, W.J., 1970. The Manila Trench and West Luzon Trough III. Seismic-refraction measurements. Deep Sea Res. 17, 553571. Mallet, R., 1853. Catalogue of recorded earthquakes from 1606 B.C. to 1850. Third report on the facts of earthquake phenomena. In: Report of the 22nd Meeting of the British Association for the Advancement of Science, London. John Murray, Albermarle Street, pp. 1176. Mallet, R., 1854a. Catalogue of recorded earthquakes from 1606 B.C. to 1850 (continued ). Third report on the facts of earthquake phenomena. In: Report of the 22nd Meeting of the British Association for the Advancement of Science, London. John Murray, Albermarle Street, pp. 118213. Mallet, R., 1854b. Catalogue of recorded earthquakes from 1606 B.C. to 1850 (continued ). Third report on the facts of earthquake phenomena. In: Report of the 22nd Meeting of the British Association for the Advancement of Science, London. John Murray, Albermarle Street, pp. 2326. Maso, M.S., 1895. La Sismologia en Filipinas. Establicimiento Tipo Letograpico de Ranuirez y Compania, Manila. 121 pp.+gures. Maso, M.S., 1927. Philippine earthquakes. In: Weather Bureau Seismological Bulletin for 1926, 67103. Milne, J., 1912. Catalogue of destructive earthquakes, Report of the 80th Meeting of the British Association for the Advancement of Science, Portsmouth, 649740, App. 1. Morante, E.M., 1974. The Ragay Gulf earthquake of March 17, 1973, southern Luzon, Philippines. J. Geol. Soc. Phils. XXVIII, 130.
pines using historical and recent earthquakes. D.Sc. Dissertation (unpublished ), 183 pp. Berninghausen, Wm.H., 1969. Tsunamis and seismic seiches of southeast asia. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 59, 289297. Bischke, R.E., Suppe, J., del Pilar, R., 1990. A new branch of the Philippine Fault system as observed from aeromagnetic and seismic data. Tectonophysics 183, 243264. Bollinger, G.A., Chapman, M.C., Sibol, M.S., 1993. A comparison of earthquake damage areas as a function of magnitude across the United States. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 83, 10641080. Cardwell, R.K., Isacks, B.L., Karig, D.E., 1980. The spatial distribution of earthquakes focal mechanism solutions and subducted lithosphere in the Philippines and northeastern Indonesian islands. In: Hayes, D.E. ( Ed.), Tectonic and Geologic Evolution of the Southeast Asian Seas and Islands. AGU Geophys. Monograph Series 23, 124. Cole, J., McCabe, R., Moriarty, T., Malicse, J.A., Deln, F.G., Tebar, H., Ferrer, H., 1989. A preliminary Neogene paleomagnetic data set from Leyte and its relation to motion on the Philippine Fault. Tectonophysics 168, 205220. Cox, D.C., 1970. Discussion of Tsunamis and seismic seiches of Southeast Asia by W.H. Berninghausen. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 60, 281287. Daligdig, J.A., 1997. Recent faulting along the Philippine Fault in north central Luzon. unpubl. D.Sc. Thesis (unpublished), Kyoto University, Japan. De Alzina, F.I., 1668. Historia Natural del Sitio, Fertilidad y Calidad de las Islas e Indios de Bisayas. Deontaines, B., Pubellier, M., Rangin, C., Quebral, R., 1993. Discovery of an intra-arc transform zone in Mindanao (Philippines) using morpho-neotectonic data. Z. Geomorp. 94, suppl., 261273. Dunbar, P.K., Lockridge, P.A., Whiteside, L.S., 1992. Catalog of signicant earthquakes 2150 B.C.1991 A.D. incl. quantitative casualties and damage. Report SE-49, World Center A for Solid Earth Geophysics. National Geophysical Data Center, Boulder, CO, USA. 320 pp. Duquesnoy, Th., Barrier, E., Kasser, M., Aurelio, M., Gaulon, R., Punongbayan, R.S., Rangin, C., FrenchPhillipine Cooperation Team 1994. Detection of creep along the Philippine Fault: rst results of geodetic measurements on Leyte Island, central Philippines. Geophys. Res. Lett. 21, 975978. Ebel, J.E., 1996. The seventeenth century seismicity of northeastern North America. Seismol. Res. Lett. 67, 5168. Fitch, T., 1970. Earthquake mechanisms and island arc tectonics in the IndonesianPhilippine region. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 60, 565591. Gutenberg, B., 1956. Great earthquakes 18961903. Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 37, 608614. Gutenberg, B., Richter, C.F., 1954. Seismicity of the Earth. second ed., Princeton University Press. 310 pp. Hamburger, M.W., Cardwell, R.K., Bryan, I.L., 1983. Seismotectonics of the Northern Philippine island arc. In: Hayes, D.E. ( Ed.), Tectonic and Geologic Evolution of the Southeast Asian Seas and Islands. AGU Geophys. Monograph Series 27, 121.
M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169 Musson, R.M.W., 1998. Inference and assumptions in historical seismicity. Surv. Geophys., 189203. Nakamura, S., 1978. On statistical tsunami risks of the Philippines. South East Asian Stud. 15 (4), 581590. Nakata, T., Sangawa, A., Hirano, S., 1977. A report on tectonic landforms along the Philippine fault zone in the northern Luzon, Philippines. Sci. Rep. Tohoku Univ. 7th Ser. (Geogr.) 27 (2), 6993. Nakata, T., Tsutsumi, H.R.S., Rimando, P.R.E., Daligdig, J.A., Daag, A.S., Besana, G.M., 1996. Surface Fault Ruptures of the 1990 Luzon Earthquake, Philippines. Research Center for Regional Geogr. Hiroshima University Spec. Publ. no. 25. 86 pp. National Media Production Center, 1980. Directory of Philippine Churches. Nieremberg, J.E., 1635. Historiae Naturae, Antwerp XVI. Nuttli, O., Zollweg, J.E., 1974. The relation between felt area and magnitude for central United States earthquakes. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 64, 7385. Nuttli, O.W., Bollinger, G.A., Griths, D.W., 1979. On the relation between modied Mercalli intensity and body-wave magnitude. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 69, 893909. Perrey, A., 1860. Documents sur les tremblements de terre et les eruptions volcaniques dans larchipel des Philippines. Mem. Ac. Imp. Sc. Arts et Belles-Lettres de Dijon VII, 85. Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Atmospheric and Services Administration (PAGASA), 1976. Catalogue of Philippine earthquakes, 15851976. Earthquake Catalog. PAGASA, Quezon City, Philippines. PHIVOLCS Quick Response Teams, The 15 November 1994 Mindoro earthquake, PHIVOLCS Special report no. 2, Quezon City, 38 pp. Pinet, N., Stephan, J.F., 1990. The Philippine Wrench Fault System in the Ilocos Foothills, Northwest Luzon, Philippines. Tectonophysics 183, 207224. Repetti, W.C., 1946. Catalogue of Philippine earthquakes, 15891899. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 36, 133319. Ringenbach, J.C., Stephan, J.F., Maleterre, P., Bellon, H., 1990. Structure and geological history of the LepantoCervantes Releasing Bend on the Abra River Fault, Luzon Central Cordillera, Philippines. Tectonophysics 183, 225241. Rowlett, H., Kelleher, J., 1976. Evolving Seismic and tectonic patterns along the western margin of the Philippine Sea Plate. J. Geophys. Res. 81, 35183524. Rudolf, E., 1887. Ueder submarine erdbeben und eruptionen. Gerl. Beitr. Z. Geophysik. Stuttgart I, 360365. Seno, T., Kurita, K., 1978. Focal mechanisms and tectonics in the TaiwanPhilippine region. J. Phys. Earth 26, 249263. Shibutani, T., Ohkura, T., Iio, Y., Kanao, M., Nihigami, K., Iwata, T., Kakehi, Y., Hirano, N., Ando, M., Bautista, B.C., Puertollano, J.S., Lanuza, A.G., Melosantos, A.A., Chu, A., Pigtain, R., dela Cruz, E., Punongbayan, R.S., 1991. Search for the buried subfault(s) of the 16 July 1990 Luzon
169
earthquake, the Philippines, using aftershock observation. J Natural Disaster Sci 13 (1), 2938. Smith, W.H.F., Sandwell, D.T., 1996. New global seaoor topography from satellite altimetry. EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 77, 46 Suppl., 315. Solidum Jr, R.U., Sabit, J.P., 1988. Report on the June 20, 1988 earthquake and its aftershocks oshore of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro. PHIVOLCS unpublished Quick Response Team (QRT ) reports, 39 pp. Southeast Asian Association of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering (SEASEE ), 1985. In: Series on Seismology (Philippines) IV. 843 pp. Stewart, G.S., Cohn, S.N., 1977. The August 16, 1976 Mindanao Philippine earthquake (Ms 7.8) evidence for a subduction zone south of Mindana. EOS. Trans. AGU 58, 1194 abstract. Su, S.S., 1969. The Luzon earthquake of 1 August, 1968: a preliminary report. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 59, 459472. Suppe, J., 1988. Tectonics of arc-continent collision on both sides of the China Sea: Taiwan and Mindoro. Acta Geol. Taiwanica. Sci. Rep. National Taiwan Univ. 26, 118. Street, R., Lacroix, A., 1979. An empirical study of New England seismicity: 17271977. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 69, 159175. Thenhaus, P.C., Hanson, S.L., Algermissen, S.T., Bartolome, B.C., Bautista, M.L.P., Punongbayan, B.J., Rasdas, A.R., Nillos, T.E., Punongbayan, R.S., 1994. Estimates of the regional ground-motion hazard in the Philippines. In: Proc. National Conf. on Natural Disaster Mitigation, Quezon City, Oct 1921. PHIVOLCS, Quezon City, pp. 4560. Tuttle, M.P., Sykes, L.R., 1992. Reevaluation of several large historic earthquakes in the vicinity of the Loma Prieta and peninsular segments of the San Andreas Fault, California. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 82, 18021820. Umbal, J.V., Masigla, L.M., Medrano, R.N., Diolata, G.P., 1990. Report of investigation on the February 8, 1990 earthquake in Bohol. PHIVOLCS unpublished report, 27 pp.+gures. US Geological Survey ( USGS), 1995. Evaluation of the earthquake potential of the Marikina Fault. Final report to the Agency for International Development, 13 pp.+gures. Utsu, T., 1990. Table of Disastrous Earthquakes in the World from Ancient Times to 1989. Wessel, P., Smith, W.H.F., 1995. New version of the generic mapping tools released. EOS. Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 76 (33), 329. Wolfe, J.A., Self, S., 1983. Structural lineaments and Neogene volcanism in southwestern Luzon. In: Hayes, D.E. ( Ed.), Tectonic and Geologic Evolution of the Southeast Asian Seas and Islands. AGU Geophys. Monograph Series 27, 157172. Wood, H.O., Neumann, H., 1931. Modied Mercalli intensity scale of 1931. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 21, 277283.

Estimation of The Magnitudes and Epicenters of Philippine Historical Earthquakes

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Estimation of The Magnitudes and Epicenters of Philippine Historical Earthquakes

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169 www.elsevier.

Estimation of the magnitudes and epicenters of Philippine historical earthquakes

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

Intensity assigned I II III IV V VI

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

3062 30 456 14 922 24 609 4234 9916

13 743 66 267 95 568 101 645 9536

36 344 126 361 240 891 244 435 49 196

84 472 235 905

19 460 7954 10 780 6638

50 447 9894 12 722 52 130 23 818 43 715

27 174 449 743 34 812

157 694 86 885

44 147 113 531 298 292

22 284 17 836 40 414

13 870 17 181 10 592 6538 6212

133 625 169 164 85 660 141 112

241 770 568 730 151 492

20 108 4659 862

538 108 643 240 337 988

2452 11 122 8089

8546 42 270 8143 14 916

3251 20 454 6838 8413 10 616 57 726

669 387 567 677

32 786 28 345 55 767 158 934

758 523 3 847 430

1 763 558 6 248 854

was done for each of the 485 historical events studied.

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

M.L.P. Bautista, K. Oike / Tectonophysics 317 (2000) 137169

You might also like