Lecture 01

Investment Analysis and

Portfolio Management
by
Dr. Kumail Rizvi, CFA, FRM
Chapter 1
The Investment Setting
Questions to be answered:
Why do individuals invest ?
What is an investment ?
How do we measure the rate of return on
an investment ?
How do investors measure risk related to
alternative investments ?
Chapter 1
The Investment Setting
What factors contribute to the rates of
return that investors require on
alternative investments ?
What macroeconomic and
microeconomic factors contribute to
changes in the required rate of return for
investments ?
Why Do Individuals
Invest ?
By saving money (instead of
spending it), individuals tradeoff
present consumption for a larger
future consumption.
04 . 1 $ % 4 00 . 1 $ = +
How Do We Measure The Rate Of
Return On An Investment ?
The pure rate of interest is the
exchange rate between future
consumption (future dollars) and
present consumption (current
dollars). Market forces determine
this rate.
Peoples willingness to pay the
difference for borrowing today and
their desire to receive a surplus on
their savings give rise to an interest
rate referred to as the pure time
value of money.
How Do We Measure The Rate Of
Return On An Investment ?
If the future payment will be
diminished in value because of
inflation, then the investor will
demand an interest rate higher than
the pure time value of money to
also cover the expected inflation
expense.
How Do We Measure The Rate Of
Return On An Investment ?
If the future payment from the
investment is not certain, the
investor will demand an interest
rate that exceeds the pure time
value of money plus the inflation
rate to provide a risk premium to
cover the investment risk.
How Do We Measure The Rate Of
Return On An Investment ?
Defining an Investment
A current commitment of $ for a
period of time in order to derive
future payments that will
compensate for:
the time the funds are committed
the expected rate of inflation
uncertainty of future flow of
funds.
Measures of
Historical Rates of Return
Holding Period Return
10 . 1
$200
$220

Investment of Value Beginning
Investment of Value Ending
HPR
= =
=
1.1
Measures of
Historical Rates of Return
Holding Period Yield
HPY = HPR - 1
1.10 - 1 = 0.10 = 10%

1.2
Annual Holding Period Return
Annual HPR = HPR
1/n
where n = number of years investment is held

Annual Holding Period Yield
Annual HPY = Annual HPR - 1
Measures of
Historical Rates of Return
Measures of
Historical Rates of Return
Arithmetic Mean

1.4
yields period holding
annual of sum the HPY
: where
HPY/ AM

=
= n
Measures of
Historical Rates of Return
Geometric Mean

1.5
| |
( ) ( ) ( )
n
n
HPR HPR HPR
: follows as returns period holding
annual the of product the
: where
1 HPR GM
2 1
1

=
=
t
t
Portfolio Return Measurement
Money ($) Weighted Rate of Return
IRR is indeed the money weighted rate of return
because it accounts for the timing and amount of all
dollar flows into and out of the portfolio.
Time Weighted Rate of Return
It measures the compound rate of growth of $1
initially invested in the portfolio over a stated
measurement period.
It is not affected by cash withdrawals or additions to
the portfolio.
Time Outlay
0 $200 to purchase the first share
1 $225 to purchase the second share
Proceeds
1 $5 dividend received from first share (not reinvested)
2 $10 dividend received from two shares
3 $470 received from selling two shares @$235 each
Money Weighted ROR
PV(outflows) = PV (inflows)
IRR Function: CF0=-200, CF1=-220,
CF2=480 IRR=9.39%
Simple Arithmetic Mean of HPY or HPR
(5+225)/200=1.15 or 15%
(10+470)/450= 1.06777 or 6.67%
Average: (15+6.67)/2 =10.84%
Time Weighted ROR
It is indeed a Geometric Mean of HPRs or
1+HPYs
TW-ROR = (1.15 x 1.0667)
1/2
-1=10.76%
A Portfolio of Investments
The mean historical rate of return
for a portfolio of investments is
measured as the weighted average
of the HPYs for the individual
investments in the portfolio, or the
overall change in the value of the
original portfolio
Computation of Holding
Period Yield for a Portfolio
# Begin Beginning Ending Ending Market Wtd.
Stock Shares Price Mkt. Value Price Mkt. Value HPR HPY Wt. HPY
A 100,000 10 $ 1,000,000 $ 12 $ 1,200,000 $ 1.20 20% 0.05 0.010
B 200,000 20 $ 4,000,000 $ 21 $ 4,200,000 $ 1.05 5% 0.20 0.010
C 500,000 30 $ 15,000,000 $ 33 $ 16,500,000 $ 1.10 10% 0.75 0.075
Total 20,000,000 $ 21,900,000 $ 0.095
21,900,000 $
20,000,000 $
HPY = 1.095 - 1 = 0.095
= 9.5%
HPR = = 1.095
Exhibit 1.1
Expected Rates of Return
Risk is uncertainty that an
investment will earn its expected
rate of return
Probability is the likelihood of an
outcome
Expected Rates of Return

=

=
n
i 1
i
Return) (Possible Return) of y Probabilit (
) E(R Return Expected
) R (P .... ) )(R (P ) )(R [(P
n n 2 2 1 1
+ + +
) )(R P (
1
i i
n
i

=
1.6
Risk Aversion
The assumption that most investors
will choose the least risky
alternative, all else being equal and
that they will not accept additional
risk unless they are compensated in
the form of higher return
Probability Distributions
Risk-free Investment
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Exhibit 1.2
Probability Distributions
Risky Investment with 3 Possible Returns
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
-30% -10% 10% 30%
Exhibit 1.3
Probability Distributions
Risky investment with ten possible rates of return
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
Exhibit 1.4
Measuring the Risk of
Expected Rates of Return
2
n
1 i
Return) Expected - Return (Possible y) Probabilit (
) ( Variance

=
= o
2
i i i
1
)] E(R )[R P (

=
n
i
1.7
Measuring the Risk of
Expected Rates of Return
Standard Deviation is the square
root of the variance
1.8
Measuring the Risk of
Expected Rates of Return
Coefficient of variation (CV) a measure of
relative variability that indicates risk per unit
of return
Standard Deviation of Returns
Expected Rate of Returns
E(R)
i
o
=
1.9
Measuring the Risk of
Historical Rates of Return
variance of the series
holding period yield during period I
expected value of the HPY that is equal
to the arithmetic mean of the series
the number of observations
2/n
n
1 i
i
2
HPY) ( E HPY [

=
= o
=
=
=
=
n
E(HPY)
HPY

i
2
o
1.10
Determinants of
Required Rates of Return
Time value of money during the
period of investment
Expected rate of inflation during
the period
Risk involved
The Real Risk Free Rate
(RRFR)

Assumes no inflation.
Assumes no uncertainty about
future cash flows.
Influenced by time preference for
consumption of income and
investment opportunities in the
economy
Adjusting For Inflation
Real RFR =
1
Inflation) of Rate (1
RFR) Nominal 1 (

+
+
1.12
Nominal Risk-Free Rate
Dependent upon
Conditions in the Capital Markets
Expected Rate of Inflation
Adjusting For Inflation
Nominal RFR =
(1+Real RFR) x (1+Expected Rate of Inflation) - 1
1.11
Facets of Fundamental
Risk
Business risk
Financial risk
Liquidity risk
Exchange rate risk
Country risk
Business Risk
Uncertainty of income flows caused by
the nature of a firms business
Sales volatility and operating leverage
determine the level of business risk.
Financial Risk
Uncertainty caused by the use of debt
financing.
Borrowing requires fixed payments which
must be paid ahead of payments to
stockholders.
The use of debt increases uncertainty of
stockholder income and causes an increase
in the stocks risk premium.
Liquidity Risk
Uncertainty is introduced by the secondary
market for an investment.
How long will it take to convert an investment
into cash?
How certain is the price that will be received?

Exchange Rate Risk
Uncertainty of return is introduced by
acquiring securities denominated in a
currency different from that of the investor.
Changes in exchange rates affect the
investors return when converting an
investment back into the home currency.
Country Risk
Political risk is the uncertainty of returns
caused by the possibility of a major change
in the political or economic environment in
a country.
Individuals who invest in countries that
have unstable political-economic systems
must include a country risk-premium when
determining their required rate of return
Risk Premium
f (Business Risk, Financial Risk,
Liquidity Risk, Exchange Rate
Risk, Country Risk)
or
f (Systematic Market Risk)

Risk Premium
and Portfolio Theory
The relevant risk measure for an
individual asset is its co-movement
with the market portfolio
Systematic risk relates the variance of
the investment to the variance of the
market
Beta measures this systematic risk of
an asset
Fundamental Risk
versus Systematic Risk
Fundamental risk comprises business risk,
financial risk, liquidity risk, exchange rate
risk, and country risk
Systematic risk refers to the portion of an
individual assets total variance attributable
to the variability of the total market portfolio
Relationship Between
Risk and Return
Exhibit 1.7
Rateof Return
Risk
(business risk, etc., or systematic risk-beta)
RFR
Security
Market Line
Low
Risk
Average
Risk
High
Risk
The slope indicates the
required return per unit of risk
(Expected)
Changes in the Required Rate of Return
Due to Movements Along the SML
Rate
Risk
(business risk, etc., or systematic risk-beta)
RFR
Security
Market Line
Expected
Movements along the curve
that reflect changes in the
risk of the asset
Exhibit 1.8
Changes in the Slope of the SML
RP
i
= E(R
i
) - NRFR
where:
RP
i
= risk premium for asset i
E(R
i)
= the expected return for asset i
NRFR = the nominal return on a risk-free asset
1.13
Market Portfolio Risk
The market risk premium for the market
portfolio (contains all the risky assets in the
market) can be computed:
RP
m
= E(R
m
)- NRFR where:
RP
m
= risk premium on the market portfolio
E(R
m
) = expected return on the market portfolio
NRFR = expected return on a risk-free asset
1.14
Change in
Market Risk Premium
Exhibit 1.10
Risk
RFR
Original SML
New SML
Rm
Rm'
E(R)
NRFR
Expected Return
R
m

R
m

Capital Market Conditions,
Expected Inflation, and the SML
Exhibit 1.11
Risk
RFR
Original SML
New SML
Rate of Return
RFR'
NRFR
NRFR
Expected Return
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I nvestments Online
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http://www.economist.com
http://www.online.wsj.com
http://www.forbes.com
http://www.barrons.com
http://fisher.osu.edu/fin/journal/jofsites.htm

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http://www.fortune.com
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Future Topics
Chapter 2
The asset allocation decision
The individual investor life
cycle
Risk tolerance
Portfolio management