POLS 518 Op-ed: a Response to Three Authors on US-China Relations By Steven Natiello The relationship between the United

States is complex and dynamic. A number of theories attempt to predict the direction that will shape the economic landscape of the global community in the coming decades, but one approach in particular has the most merit. I argue that, though the rise of China certainly appears inevitable, there are a few unpredictable game-changing factors that might prove redeeming traits for the American economy. In his article "The Inevitable Superpower," A. Subramanian argues that the rise of China as the dominant economic force in the global community is unavoidable, and that by some models, the Chinese economy has already surpassed that of the United States. There are many good reasons for this, and the truth remains that despite the rampant poverty that still plagues the Chinese working class, China's labor-intensive economy provides the perfect contrast to the United States' capital based economy. Most traditional measures surely point to Chinese domination over the coming decades, but the United States has consistently displayed a certain confident characteristic that could prove its salvation in many ways. Subramanian writes that the United States features a "can-do attitude" and quotes a source citing a "favorable business culture" that has created an rich culture for commercial technology companies Google, Microsoft, Apple, and Facebook to thrive. Though Facebook has struggled of late, all four provide ideal examples of how American influence continues to shape the global community. Such influence is a powerful but largely immeasurable asset. Social capital in particular is an invaluable resource that, while difficult, even impossible to measure, can often mean the difference between success and failure. Researchers have more or less confirmed this on much smaller scale situations, such as commercial advertising or within political campaigns, but the principle can be applied on the international scale as

POLS 518 well. Though the American economy has struggled and the United States faces many obstacles before it can regain its footing, that social influence that dominates the developed world's youth is a powerful force. Nowhere in the developed world is American media unknown, and most countries with internet or technology access are familiar with American products or content. This social capital will ultimately translate to influence over allies, as well as a continued sense of leadership as Americans continue to use their innate and culturally bound sense of confidence to continue innovation. Perhaps a bigger challenge than China lay within the United States itself. Abraham Lincoln is famously quoted as saying "America will never be destroyed by the outside. If we falter...it will be because we destroyed ourselves." Lincoln's statement couldn't be more applicable to today's situation. Though China's rise certainly threatens the comparative health of the American economy and more importantly to Americans, the United States dominance over the global economy, the biggest threat lay in the divisive nature of modern American politics. The common idiom "agree to disagree" is actually a concept vital to American discourse, yet its absence threatens to destroy the country far more than any foreign threat to date. Ultimately, Subramanian's approach is the most realistic. The other theories discussed, namely those discussed in Mearsheimer's "The Gathering Storm" and Bergsten and Fred's "A Partnership of Equals," don't fit as well with the trend. Bergsten and Fred are appropriate to suggest that Washington pursue a "G-2" scenario in which China steps up to balance the the United States level of power and responsibility. This approach is naive at best; both nations have demonstrated their refusal to coexist as equals. To this end, Mearsheimer's "The Gathering Storm", offers a notably more pessimistic view, arguing that direct or indirect military conflict is the inevitable scenario, and that the United States' history and attitude in particular will likely be the most significant source for said conflict. The one commonality between all approaches is the

POLS 518 admittance that the ever-changing scope makes prediction ultimately impossible. Nevertheless, of the views presented, Subramanian's is most realistic. Subramanian posits that China's rapid growth will propel it to dominate the global economy if it hasn't already done so. Though China faces a number of potential challenges to that success, the success with which is has negotiated such a strong economy while still so poor combined with the myriad of economic problems plaguing the United States creates a unique situation in which China has a strong opportunity to rise. Even lacking a genuinely conspiratorial plan passed down through administrations for a long-term domination scheme, future Chinese leadership would be unrealistically foolish to not recognize the leverage it has over the United States via the potentially artificially suppressed yuan. In short, whereas the United States is very limited in options, China's decisions are wide in range and reach far in impact.