AASEF

WINC-AICH, 23-24 AUG 2011

23-25 AUG 2011

1st Asia-Arab Sustainable Energy Forum

Extended to SSB Scenario

Prof. Kosuke KUROKAWA

Tokyo Institute of Technology

Task 8 OA (up to 2008)

1 Chairman, Japan Council for Renewable Energy kurochans-net
AASEF 23-25 AUG 2011

Solar Pyramid: PV Systems for 21st Century Gobi

Covered by =14% PV modules

1,300,000 km2

Sahara

8,600,000 km2 Total Land Surface Total Earth Surface

(50% space factor assuming 10 % system energy efficiency) (=107 PWh/y =1071012kWh/y)

384EJ/year PV Electricity
(1 EJ = 1018J)

World Primary Energy Supply In 2002 = 379EJ/year

11
kurochans-net

AASEF

23-25 AUG 2011

Task 8: Study on Very Large Scale Task 8: Study on Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Power Generation Systems VLS-PV Photovoltaic Power Generation Systems VLS-PV 1998 (Task 6 Subtask 5) 1999 2002 Phase I Feasibility Study of Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Power Generation (VLS-PV) Systems 2003 2005 Phase II Practical Proposal for Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Systems 2006 2008 Phase III Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Systems for Socio-Economic Developments 2009 2011 Phase IV (going on)

Energy from the Desert: Energy from the Desert: Energy from the Desert:

Energy from the Desert:

Practical Project Proposals to Realise Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Systems (tentative)
http://www.iea-pvps.org/products/download/Energy%20from%20the%20Desert%20Summary09.pdf 12
kurochans-net
AASEF 23-25 AUG 2011

Our Dream Team for 21st Century Energy

All distributed by EarthScan UK

10 countries + 2 observers Japan (OA), Canada, Germany, Israel, Italy, Korea, the Netherlands, Spain, U.S.A., Australia, Mongolia (obs.), China (tentative. obs.).
2007.9 IEA PVPS Task 8 Milan Meeting 13 13 kurochans-net 13

AASEF

23-25 AUG 2011

Our Future Directions toward 2100

1,600 1,400
WBGU: German Advisory Council on Global Change

Geothermal Other REs Solar heat

Primary Energy Supply [EJ/Y]

1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2000 Wind Biomass adv Biomass trad Hydro-PW Nuclear PW Gas Coal Oil 208 2070
14
kurochans-net
AASEF 23-25 AUG 2011

Solar electricity

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2100 2060

YEAR

Case Study

Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN) says that

77% of the world energy demand will be supplied by RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES in 2050.
15
kurochans-net

AASEF

23-25 AUG 2011

Our Future Directions toward 2100

1,600 1,400
WBGU: German Advisory Council on Global Change

Geothermal Other REs Solar heat

Primary Energy Supply [EJ/Y]

1,200 1,000 800

Possively CSP
Solar thermal electricity PV electricity Wind Biomass adv Biomass trad Hydro Nuclear Gas Coal Oil 208 2070
16
kurochans-net

1/3
600 400 200 0 2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2100 2060

YEAR
AASEF 23-25 AUG 2011

Proposed Scenarios toward 2030-2050 & beyond Proposed Scenarios toward 2030-2050 & beyond
1974 2000 1G 2010 2030 2050 PV module Technology 2G 3G Recycle Developing Region Scenario + Storage SHS Mini-Grid Community Scale Grid Scenario (Micro-Grid) Rooftop PV + Storage Community-Grid VLS-PV to Global-Grid Large Scale to Very Large Scale PV Large Scale to Very Large Scale PV + Storage International to Global Grid
kk-Ver.G09123

2100

133TW cum 4.4TW/Y 4.4TW/Y

kurochans-net

Global Energy Mix

17

AASEF

23-25 AUG 2011

World PV Market Long-Term View

Version 0902205 Cumulat ive

800 GW

1/3 of World Total Primary Energy Supply 75TW 10 TW 133 TW

Annual PV Installation [GW/Y]

Annual World Total PV

4.52 TW/Y 4.36 TW/Y

Annual VLS-PV

2.25 TW/Y 2.21 TW/Y

Replace

*Note: PV2030+ JP 330GW/Y*

1.00 TW/Y

VLS-PV New

122 GW/Y

JP 40GW/Y*

17.4 GW/Y

236 GW/Y
18
kurochans-net
23-25 AUG 2011

Source: IEA PVPS Task 8 3rd Report Energy from the Desert
AASEF

World PV Market Long-Term View

Version 0902205 Net Stock 800 GW Annual P. 120 GW/Y 10 TW 1070 GW/Y 75TW 4.26 TW/Y 133 TW 4.56 TW

Investment for PV Installation [M$/Y]

World PV Market

3.41 T$/Y
340/Y

3.40 T$/Y 340/Y 1.69 T$/Y

170/Y

VLS-PV

See p.26.
100/Y

908 B$/Y

1.73 T$/Y
170/Y

162 B$/Y 16/Y 23.2 B$/Y

2.3/Y

214 B$/Y
20/Y

1 $

100 Y

Source: IEA PVPS Task 8 3rd Report Energy from the Desert

19
kurochans-net

AASEF

23-25 AUG 2011

Indicative Generation Cost (USD/kWh)

Gobi 20.0 Generation Cost (cent/kwh) Module Price 15.0 4$/W 3$/W 10.0 2$/W 1$/W Sonora Sahara-Ouarzazate Negev Thar Great sandy Sahara-Nema

5.0

0.0 2000

2200 2400 2600 Annual Irradiation(kwh/m2/year)

2800
20
kurochans-net
23-25 AUG 2011

AASEF

Mediterranean Case Studies

21
kurochans-net

AASEF

23-25 AUG 2011

Middle East Case Studies

Technology Country Bahrain Cyprus Egypt Iran Iraq Israel Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey UAE Yemen Static, 300 tilt (TWh y-1) 43.5 604.3 65,102.4 106,994.4 28,263.4 1,329.6 6,014.9 1,165.4 669.0 13,894.9 748.0 128,222.1 12,036.9 50,407.7 5,420.4 34,529.2 1-axis tracking (TWh y-1) 46.3 643.1 69,283.3 113,865.6 30,078.5 1,415.0 6,401.2 1,240.3 712.0 14,787.2 796.0 136,456.5 12,809.9 53,644.9 5,768.4 36,746.7 2-axis tracking (TWh y-1) 22.1 306.8 33,048.9 54,315.2 14,347.8 675.0 3,053.4 591.6 339.6 7,053.7 379.7 65,091.3 6,110.5 25,589.2 2,751.6 17,528.6 CPV (TWh y-1) 32.4 450.0 48,478.4 79,673.2 21,046.3 990.1 4,479.0 867.8 498.2 10,346.8 557.0 95,480.3 8,963.2 37,536.0 4,036.3 25,712.1 Electricity Production in 2002 (TWh) [2] 6.9 3.6 81.3 129.0 34.0 42.7 7.3 32.4 8.1 9.8 9.7 138.2 26.1 123.3 39.3 3.0 22
kurochans-net
AASEF 23-25 AUG 2011

Possible MEDITERRANEAN NETWORK TO GLOBAL NETWORK

IEA PVPS Task8 1998

23

kurochans-net

AASEF

23-25 AUG 2011

Suitable, Stable Area on the world 6 deserts

Negev Thar Gobi Sonora Sahara Great Sandy
n.a. low Crop 0.55 availability Steppe 0.45 0.35

high

Desert 0.25 0.15 NDVIymax

Total 6655x103 km2

Steppe

Desert
24
kurochans-net

AASEF

23-25 AUG 2011

Global Potential Analysis

Satellite images
Converted to Reflectance Ground Cover Classifications Uphill / Downhill Classification

NDVI Data set

Vegetation Index

Feed Back Ground Truth

Weight and integrate

25
kurochans-net

AASEF

23-25 AUG 2011

Classification of the Desert into Ground Surface Conditions

Original image Gravel desert

Desert stepe Desertsteppe

green

Sand dune

water

26
kurochans-net
AASEF 23-25 AUG 2011

Negev Thar

Gobi Sonora

Sahara Great Sandy

n.a. low Crop 0.55 availability high

Steppe Desert 0.45 0.35 0.25 0.15 NDVIymax

772 TW in total

Steppe

Desert

772 PWh

5.2 x as much as world energy demand in 2010 or 1.9 x in 2100

27
kurochans-net

AASEF

23-25 AUG 2011

Negev 2.5

Thar 18

Gobi 64

Sonora 7.4

Steppe + Desert World desert PV System can supply 752PWh=2707EJ, 5.2 times as much as world energy demand in 2010.

Great Sandy 34 Sahara 626

n.a. low suitability high Crop Steppe Desert 28 0.55 0.45 0.35 0.25 0.15 NDVIymax kurochans-net
AASEF 23-25 AUG 2011

Careless Irrigation may cause soil degradation. To assure sustainable agricultural development, A New Approach comes .....

Agriculture in Sahara 29 - IRA, Tunisia kurochans-net

AASEF

23-25 AUG 2011

PV Power for Sustainable Agriculture in the Desert PV Power for Sustainable Agriculture in the Desert
or RO

Desalinated Water Brine Water

Large Possibility: [ PV + Agriculture ]

30
kurochans-net
AASEF 23-25 AUG 2011

PV Energy to develop Sustainable Community PV Energy to develop Sustainable Community in the Desert Region in the Desert Region Diffusion of VLS-PV
Reduction in CO2 emission Decrease in fossil fuel consumption

Stable ecosystem structure and diversity

mitigation
Decrease in extreme events (floods, droughts fires) Increased carbon sequestration in soil and woods

Climate Change

conservation

Energy

Stable supply of biomass resources

conservation

Biocapacity

Increased plant and soil organisms species diversity

Soil conservation (nutrients and soil moisture)

conservation (Desertification, Deforestation)

31
kurochans-net

Land

AASEF

23-25 AUG 2011

10 years ago: OUR FUTURE DREAM !

Nowadays: More Realistic !

Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology
AASEF

33
kurochans-net
23-25 AUG 2011

60MW PV Plant: Olmedilla (Cuenca)

Presently World Largest PV Plant

08905 kurochans-net

34

AASEF

23-25 AUG 2011

Super-Mega Solar

Sarnia 97 MW Plant, Ontario, Canada: World Largest PV Dec. 2010 35

kurochans-net
AASEF 23-25 AUG 2011

Sustainable VLS-PV Development Concept Sustainable VLS-PV Development Concept

Sustainable State 1.5GW
1600 1400 Capacity of PV System [MW] 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
36
kurochans-net

Installed PV power PV power to supply the grid Power needed to operate the facility

Local PV Module Factories

50MW module facility 5MW module facility 5MW module facility 5MW module facility 5MW module facility

50MW module facility 50MW module facility

50MW module facility

Regional Jobs= 25 700 manY Induced Production=3.5 times of initial investment

Cumulative amount of end-of-life modules Total production scale of manufacturing facilities

5MW module facility

Period [years]

Lifetime: PV system=30yrs., facility=10yrs.

AASEF

23-25 AUG 2011

Extended Sustainable SSB Scenario Extended Sustainable SSB Scenario

Technology Transfer initial Imported Import cells Si Process Cell Fab Si Process Cell Fab Module Module Fab Fab PV Cycle

Elec. Module
Fab

Module Module Fab Fab

Replace-Recycle

PV
Gradual PV Power Plant Installation Job Creation; Equalized Cash Flow

V L S - P V H T S C
True Sustainability Stage
37
kurochans-net
23-25 AUG 2011

Water Treatment; New Agriculture; New Indutries National Energy; Excess Energy Export
AASEF

Extended Sustainable SSB Scenario Extended Sustainable SSB Scenario

Technology Transfer initial Imported Import cells Si Process Cell Fab Si Process Cell Fab Module Module Fab Fab PV Cycle

Elec. Module
Fab

Module Module Fab Fab

Replace-Recycle

PV
Breeder Plant Drive PV Power Total Export

V L S - P V
HTSC to EU

Local Utility National Grd

38
kurochans-net

AASEF

Industrial Industrial Structure Structure

23-25 AUG 2011

Si Feedstock

Metallurgy

MG Si
Purification

Gass Purif.

SOG Si
CZ / Cast

TCO/ITO glass

Wafer
PN / ARC / Contact

Wafer Quality TF Quality

PV SSB Technology Flow

Civil Work Q. Q. Certification Power Elerc. Utility IF Test Standard

I C

Cell
Tabbing / Laminate

Cell Quality Module Quality Reliability

Supply Chain with A Very Broad Base

Products Process Support Tech Direct/Indirect Materials Energy Consumption Another Pass for Thin Film
39
kurochans-net
23-25 AUG 2011

Module
Structure / Wiring

Array Parts BIPV Parts Inverter Utility IF Storage

Array
System Integration

On-site Testing Optimization

System

Sys.Evaluation

AASEF

Super-Mega Solar

Hokuto Mega-Solar Site, 19 AUG. 2011

40
kurochans-net

AASEF

23-25 AUG 2011

Proposal for Algerian Colleagues

IV Curve Tracer and Scanners Intended Objective forthe1st Stage: Better Understanding of PV Performance in Sub-Sahara; Higher Education; Training for regional PV System Integrators.

PV Module Test Bed

Hokuto Mega-Solar Site, 19 AUG. 2011
AASEF

41
kurochans-net
23-25 AUG 2011

Proposal for Algerian Colleagues

Meteorological Monitoring (temporary)

42
kurochans-net

AASEF

23-25 AUG 2011

SOLAR ENERGY FOREVER and EVER!

PDF will be uploaded to

www.kurochans.net
43
kurochans-net